Tag: Michigan

Episode 2 in my series of diaries mapping out possible redistricting scenarios in the states has arrived! Today, I map Michigan and Nevada.

Grain of salt alert: my districts are based on county estimates from 2007 which are due to be adjusted soon with 2008 numbers. Also, I am using projected seat totals that are equally subject to change.

The number geeks among us will really enjoy what’s below the fold…

Michigan

The battle for control of redistricting in Michigan is wide open in the 2010 elections, with a competitive open race for the governor’s mansion being vacated by term-limited Democrat Jennifer Granholm and the state Senate standing at a narrow 21-17 Republican advantage. Since Democrats have a strong 67-43 edge in the House, the one scenario that seems unlikely is a repeat of 2001’s GOP gerrymander. Given the difficulty of both holding Granholm’s spot and picking up those three Senate seats, my best bet would be a continuation of split redistricting power when map-making time comes around in 2011-2012…and usually, split control means incumbent protection.

But hark, Michigan is expected to lose a seat in redistricting, going from 15 down to 14. Someone will have to be the unlucky loser. If Democrats somehow won the trifecta, they could force two GOP incumbents (say, Mike Rogers and Dave Camp) to run against each other. But since I’m presuming split control, it will have to be a Republican against a Democrat.

At first, the logical choice seemed to be eliminating Thad McCotter by pitting him against longtimer Sander Levin. But I decided against this for a very good reason: Gary Peters must be protected in any plan, and since Oakland County is a relatively competitive county, its Republican voters have to go somewhere. So if McCotter and Levin went against each other, it would likely have to be a GOP-leaning district, one a liberal like Levin would have trouble winning. Meanwhile, there was one incumbent other than Peters (Mark Schauer) whom I pointedly wanted to protect, and the only way to make him safe that I saw was to encroach on heavily Democratic Ingham County (Lansing). Thus the solution was reached: a Democratic-leaning 7th District that forces Schauer against Mike Rogers in a seat Schauer would likely win.

Would Republicans in the state Senate vote for such a plan? Well, they probably would if it protected the congressional delegation’s weakest GOP member, McCotter…and by giving him Livingston County, it does.

There is only one problematic side effect of my map: it pushes Sander Levin’s home out of the district in which he’d presumably run. I’m not clear whether his hometown of Royal Oak would be represented by Peters or McCotter, but his base would be shifted to working-class Democratic parts of Macomb and Wayne Counties. I’m sure he’d move if necessary; Michigan isn’t new to messy redistricting plans. In retrospect, I probably could have split Oakland County three ways and allowed Levin to stay put, but the way my map is configured, he’d need to pick up a lot of Macomb County’s Democrats anyway.

Without further ado, here it is:

District 1 – Bart Stupak (D-Menominee) — I think I finally found the way to make his district relatively strong for a future Democrat (face it, some day, 10 to 15 years down the road, Stupak will retire, and the Upper Peninsula isn’t as Democratic as it once was): I gave Stupak 89% of Bay County, making Bay City the largest source of district population.

District 2 – Pete Hoekstra (R-Holland) — Hoekstra will likely run for Governor in 2010, but another conservative West Michigan Republican should succeed him, and that person will be plenty safe in 2012 under my plan.

District 3 – Vern Ehlers (R-Grand Rapids) — had to expand a little and take Kent County whole, but will remain strongly GOP-leaning.

District 4 – Dave Camp (R-Midland) — this thing stretches from Lake Michigan to the Saginaw area now because of lagging population, but it should stay strong for Camp and any credible Republican in most years.

District 5 – Dale Kildee (D-Flint) — like most of the state’s districts, this one had to expand geographically, taking much of Michigan’s Thumb from Candice Miller. With all of Genesee County intact, no doubt it stays a Democratic seat.

District 6 – Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) — possibly became a bit more Republican by taking some of Mark Schauer’s more conservative turf, but not significantly so. Stays safe for Upton, competitive or slightly GOP-leaning in a future race.

District 7 – Mark Schauer (D-Battle Creek) vs. Mike Rogers (R-Brighton) — the horror of hard-right Rogers representing 66% Obama-supporting Ingham County is coming to an end! Rogers’ saving grace, heavily Republican Livingston County, is removed from the district as Ingham combines with Schauer’s less Democratic geographical base to make Rogers a goner. After 2012, Schauer could likely rely on Lansing more than Battle Creek or Jackson to get him reelected.

District 8 – Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township) — contained entirely within Oakland County, grabbing more Democratic areas from Sander Levin, who presumably has enough clout and seniority to make it in a modified but definitely Dem-friendly Macomb/Wayne district. As I said before, if there’s anything I would have done differently with this map, it’s keeping Levin in Oakland, but since these are based on 2007 county population estimates anyway, this plan is only a rough guideline of how I see redistricting going down in two or three years.

District 9 – Candice Miller (R-Harrison Township) — heavier in Macomb County, snatching its more Republican areas while only creeping a bit up the Thumb.

District 10 – Thad McCotter (R-Livonia) — he finally becomes safe, because no matter the trends in Oakland or Wayne, he’ll have Livingston County to keep him in Congress. It was a tough call figuring out which Republican would be hurt by redistricting, but as I mentioned, Oakland County is relatively 50/50 in neutral election years and those Republicans have to go somewhere…it’s far easier to imagine a bipartisan plan targeting Rogers, whose district is one of the truest gerrymanders in the state.

District 11 – Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak) — okay, maybe the legislature can find a way to keep him in Oakland County, but regardless, his district will stay safely Democratic (though it has to shed a few Dems for Peters’ sake).

District 12 – Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D-Detroit) — while population loss has been severe in Detroit, the Voting Rights Act as practiced today would seem to protect both Kilpatrick and Conyers. Her district will grow in area but should stay majority-black and overwhelmingly Democratic.

District 13 – John Conyers (D-Detroit) — ditto.

District 14 – John Dingell (D-Dearborn) — stays safely Democratic. When Dingell retires, it will be fascinating to see the primary battle play out between a Dingell-esque old-school “GM-approved candidate” and an Ann Arbor latte liberal.

Most likely result of this plan: 8 Democrats, 6 Republicans. While the Senate won’t like losing a Republican, the fact is that people like Upton, Rogers, and McCotter already represent districts that voted for Obama, so to cement GOP seats in the future, something’s gotta give. Saving McCotter should be enough of a consolation prize/sweetener to win Senate approval for a plan like this.

On to Nevada

Over the last decade, no state has represented a more different kind of America from Michigan than Nevada. While a slowdown in migration is currently resulting from the poor economy, and a “desert foreclosure crisis” has slowed Nevada’s growth to something of a halt compared to past years, the Silver State is still a lock for a new seat. As in Michigan, Democrats have a realistic chance at a takeover, but for now, control is split. 2010 will be a huge year in Nevada, with Harry Reid fighting for reelection, GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons badly unpopular, and term limits finally taking effect in the Democratic-controlled legislature. Gibbons’ approval ratings render him DOA either in the primary or the general, but the difference could be crucial. Term limits could help either party, and might affect control of the Senate, though the Assembly is lopsided enough to remain Democratic regardless.

In any case, while Democrats will gun for a shutout, the current state of affairs is split control, and I drew my map accordingly. What you’ll immediately notice is that the “cow counties” north of Las Vegas finally have not one, but two, districts representing them in Congress. Yet appearances can be deceiving; Dean Heller’s District 2 will actually be dominated by Reno and Carson City, while my proposed District 4 (likely a competitive seat) will have mixed turf in northern Clark County as its population base.

District 1 – Shelley Berkley (D-Las Vegas) — will probably become even tinier in area and stay solidly Democratic.

District 2 – Dean Heller (R-Carson City) — I tried my darnedest to protect Heller knowing that whether Democrats control the process or power is split, Heller will not be a target, but he will lose the southern part of his district no matter who draws the lines. In a Democratic wave year like 2008, this district would not look great for him what with Dem trends in Washoe County and Carson City, but if he can endear himself to Reno and hold strong at home, he should be fine.

District 3 – Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) — will also contract and become more Democratic regardless who draws the lines.

And the new District 4 – stretches up from North Las Vegas to Elko County — this should be a competitive seat, with a Democratic-leaning Clark County base counterbalanced by Art Bell libertarians in Pahrump and cowboy conservatives up north. If Democrats manage to hold the Senate and win the governor’s mansion in 2010, they will seek to make the new 4th more Democratic than did I and further protect Heller in his increasingly centrist turf, but again, I’m assuming split control for now.

Net result: Berkley and Titus are safe, Heller is fine as long as he can win Reno, and a new wild card is introduced. The question is: is there any politician in Nevada who would know how to win over the suburbs of Las Vegas and Elko?

Episode 3 (coming soon): will cover Iowa and Ohio (two of my best)

Episode 4: New Jersey and Georgia

Episode 5: Florida and Louisiana

Episode 6: Pennsylvania and Utah

EDIT: Re: my Michigan plan, it seems that I inadvertently am forcing two Republicans against each other. Brighton is in Livingston County, not Ingham County. Very well, then, let Rogers and McCotter have each other out, but would Senate Republicans go for it? I would point out that a similar situation occurred in Indiana back in 2001 (the state lost a seat, and a Democratic Governor and House passed a plan — with approval from a Republican Senate — that forced GOPers Brian Kerns and Steve Buyer against each other).

This is part one of my three part series of diaries that I will be publishing this weekend handicapping the major 2010 races in the state of Michigan.

Today I will be publishing my U.S. House outlook, tomorrow the State Senate, and Sunday the State House of Representatives.  

House District 1: Upper Peninsula and Northern Lower Peninsula.  On Monday, Republicans announced that they plan to challenge Bart Stupak again in 2010.  Apparently Pete Sessions has not learned the lesson that Tom Cole learned in 2008.  For those not familiar with the story, State Rep. Tom Casperson was recruited to run against Stupak by Tom Cole, and national Republicans hyped Casperson as a top tier challenger and golden opportunity for Republicans to knock off the popular moderate Democrat.  No such thing happened, and Casperson was pounded by Stupak 65-33.  

Now, maybe Sessions thinks that Stupak will retire.  I’ll admit, it’s possible.  But that still leaves them with the problem of recruiting a Republican with any significant name recognition.  Casperson may run again, or he may run for the State Senate.  Either way, if he couldn’t break 35% against Stupak, I doubt he could win an open seat.  Another Republican possibility is State Rep. Kevin Elsenheimer who will be term limited in 2010, but Elsenheimer is from the lower peninsula, not the U.P.  I doubt that any Republican could win this if they aren’t from the U.P., and even a downstate Democrat would have a hard time if the Republican is from the U.P.  Elsenheimer is the only Republican state legislator who lives in the 1st District, so he may start out as a front runner if he runs.

As for Democrat Candidates if there’s an open seat, the favorite should be term limited State Senator and Minority Leader Mike Prusi, but State Reps. Mike Lindberg, Mike Lahti, and Gary McDowell would all be formidable opponents to any Republican.

Rating: Safe Democrat, (Leans Democrat if Stupak Retires).

District 2: Lake Michigan Shoreline, Muskegon, Ottawa County.  The 2nd District is the most Repulbican in the state of Michigan.  It is historically conservative, very Evangelical, and has a high Dutch population.  Congressman Pete Hoekstra has already announced that he is going to retire in 2010, probably to run for Governor.

Encouraged by Barack Obama’s good showing in this district, some might be inclined to view this as a potential Democratic pickup.  I think that the chances of a Democrat winning this district is slim to none.  Republican state legislators are already lining up to succeed Hoekstra, and I doubt any notable Democrat would risk there political career to run against any one of them.

State Senator Wayne Kuipers (R) and State Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) are both running already.  Both are from Ottawa county, the conservative base of the District.  State Senator Gerald VanWoerkom, a Republican from Muskegon, may run as well.  VanWoerkom is far more moderate, and if Kuipers and Huizenga split the conservative, Ottawa County vote, VanWoerkom could sneak up and win the Republican primary.

Democrat State Reps. Mary Valentine and Doug Bennett are the only Democrat elected officials in the district, but I doubt either would take on such a suicide mission.  Former State Rep. Julie Dennis may run, but I do not think she would be a very legitimate candidate.

Rating: Likely Republican

District 3:  Kent County (Grand Rapids).  The third District is also very republican, but not as conservative as the second District.  Vern Ehlers is safe if he runs for re election.  If he retires, Republicans would have a clear advantage, but the right Democrat could win this district.

If Ehlers retires, State Senators Jud Gilbert or Mike Hardiman would be likely replacements.  Former State Representative Michael Sak, a Democrat, would make a good candidate.  He is moderate, and from Grand Rapids city, but was recently criticized for alledgedly appearing drunk at a Governors assosciation meeting.  State Reps. Robert Dean or Wayne Schmidt could also run.

Rating: Safe Republican (Leans Republic an in Ehlers Retires)

District 4: Central lower Peninsula, Midland.  Rep. Dave Camp will likely run for re-election in 2010, and Democrats will likely not give him a vigorous challenge, even though the 4th is a swing district that Barack Obama won.  Freshman State Rep. Mike Huckleberry may challenge Camp, he already did so in 2006, but he is unlikely to do any better than he did then.  And I doubt he would want to give up his new seat, anyway.

Rating: Safe Republican

District 5: Flint, Saginaw, Bay City.  If Dale Kildee does not retire in 2010, expect a primary challenge from State Senator John Gleason.  Gleason considered challenging Kildee in 2008, but opted to stay in the Senate.  He is term limited in 2010.  Republicans will not seriously contest this seat, no matter who wins the Democratic Primary.  

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 6: South-West MI, Kalamzoo.  Moderate Republican Fred Upton may or may not run for re-election in 2010.  If he does, he is probably safe.  If not, the 6th District becomes a pure tossup.  Obama got 54% in this District, but Democrats have no significant bench of candidates here.

Robert Jones is the only elected Democratic legislator in the district, but he and his predeccessor, Alexander Lipsey, are both African-American.  I doubt an African American could win this district (it has a lot of conservative voters in Berrien and Van Buren Counties).  However, former Kalamazoo mayor and current Vice-Mayor Hannah McKinney would make a decent candidate.

Republicans Tonya Schuitimaker, John Proos, and Ron Jelinek could all run to succeed Upton if he retired.

Rating: Safe Republican (Tossup if Upton retires)

District 7:  South MI, Battle Creek, Jackson.  Freshman Mark Schauer will likely face a difficult re-election in 2010.  He only beat Rep. Tim Walberg 49-46 in 2008, certainly a smaller margin than I expected.

Possible Republican candidates include former Rep. Mike Nofs, Sen. Cameron Brown, and Rep. Rick Jones.  Walberg may run agian, but he is unlikely to beat Schauer in a rematch.  

Obama won this district, and the Republicans in this district tend to vote for Conservative Republicans in the Primary, rather than moderates (See Schwarz, Joe vs. Walberg, Tim).  A conservative Republican would have an uphill climb against Schauer.  All in all, Schauer will have the advantage of incumbency going for him, and should be favored.

Rating: Leans Democrat

District 8:  Lansing, Livingston County, N. Oakland County.  This may finally be the year that Democrats seriously challenge Mike Rogers.  In 2000, Rogers barely beat Democrat Diane Byrum to succeed Democrat Debbie Stabenow, who ran successfully for the Senate.  Since then, he has not been seriously challenged in this marginal district.

Rogers may run for governor, which would give Democrats an even better chance at picking up this district.  we have a strong bench here, as the district is centered around heavily Democratic Ingham County, home of Lansing.  Possible Democrats include Lansing mayor and former State Senator Virg Bernero, State Rep. and former East Lansing Mayor Mark Meadows, State Senator Gretchen Whitimer, State Rep. Joan Bauer, and State Rep. Barb Byrum, daughter of 2000 candidate Diane Byrum.

If Rogers does run for Governor, Livingston State Senator Valde Garcia would be the likely Republican candidate.

Rating: Likely Republican (Tossup if Rogers runs for Governor)

District 9: Central Oakland County.  Freshman Gary Peters is the heavy favorite in this suburban Detroit district, even though he just defeated Republican incumbent Joe Knollenberg last November.  Like many suburban districts nationwide, this one has been trending Democratic for a while now.  Joe Knollenberg’s son state Rep. Marty Knollenberg may try to retak his father’s seat, but when an incumbent loses by 9%, his son is unlikely to do much better.

Rating: Likely Democrat

District 10: “The Thumb”, Northern Macomb County.  Republican Candice Miller is not likely to be challenged in 2010.  The former secretary of state may run for governor, however.  If she does, advantage still goes to the Republicans here.  Dem. John Espinoza may run for the open seat.  Republican Sen. Alan Sanborn is the likely favorite in an open seat.

Rating:  Safe Republican

District 11:  West Oakland County, North-East Wayne County.  Thad McCotter is in a very dangerous spot right now, and he knows it.  He only managed 51% in this once strongly Republican suburban district against a nobody in 2010.  He apparently senses the danger, and is willing to sell his soul to save his seat.

Democrats have a very strong bench in this district.  House speaker Andy Dillon lives here, and the DCCC will likely try to recruit him, as well as State Senator Glenn Anderson, who represents the Conservative city of Livonia.  Other candidates include State Reps. Marc Courriveau and Richard LeBlanc.  

McCotter used to be able to count on his base in Livonia to get re elected, but Livonia, like all of Wayne county, continues to trend Democratic. Novi, in Oakland County, was also a reliably Democratic part of the District.  But like the 11th District as a whole, Novi was won by Barack Obama.

Rating: Tossup

District 12: Parts of Oakland and Macomb Counties. Sander Levin is likely to run for re-election, but if he doesn’t look for his son, Andy Levin to run for his seat.  If not Levin, State Senator Gilda Jacobs may run.  Either way, the district is safe.

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 13:  Detroit.  The big question here is: Has the Kilpatrick scandal blown over?  If so, Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick will be safe.  If there are still lingering doubts about her suport for her son, then she may well see a another vigorous Primary Challenge.  Mary Waters will probably run again, but there are other Detroit area legislators that may want to take her on as well.  Barack Obama may have broken 90% in this majority Black District, so the winning the Democratic Primary will be tantamount to winning the General Election.

Rating: Safe Democrat.

District 14:  Detroit.  Nothing to see here.  John Conyers is safe.

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 15:  Detroit suburbs, Monroe County, Ann Arbor.  I fully expect John Dingell to retire in 2010.  He just lost his committee chairmanship, and on top of that, he can barely walk.  If he does, watch either his wife, Debbie Dingell, or his son, Christopher Dingell.  Also watch former Congresswoman Lynn Rivers, who lost the 2002 primary to Dingell after the two were drawn together by redistricting.  Rivers is quite liberal and would made a very good congresswoman, in my opinion.

Rating: Safe Democrat

The 2008 Election in Michigan was by far the best that we’ve had in years, maybe decades. We picked up two congressional seats, both of which were gerrymandered to favor Republicans.  Better yet, we won one of them by nearly 10 points.  Barack Obama won by a landslide here (16%) Compared to John Kerry, who only won by three points.  On the Statewide level, we passed two progressive ballot initiatives, threw out the conservative Chief Justice of the State Supreme Court, and made huge gains in the State House of Representatives.

Presidential

Barack Obama won the state of Michigan by a margin of 57%-41%, better than any Democrat has done in decades.  Also for the first time in years, the Democrat won a majority of the counties in the state.  

Congress

Democrat Gary Peters Defeated Incumbent Republican Joe Knollenberg by a margin of 52%-43% in the 9th District, located in Central Oakland County including the cities of Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Rochester, Troy, and West Bloomfield.  This is the first time in decades that a significant portion of Oakland County has been represented by a Democrat.  Peters is a former State Senator, the 2006 candidate for Attorney General, and the current lottery commissioner.  

In the 7th District, located in south central Michigan, State Senate minority leader Mark Schauer defeated CFG wingnut Tim Walberg by a margin of 46%-49%.  The district includes Calhoun county, home to Battle Creek, as well as Jackson County, home to the city of Jackson, which is imfamous for being the birthplace of the Republican Party.  Schauer is the popular state Senator who represents the largest counties, Calhoun and Jackson.  He was endorsed by the former moderate Congressman, Joe Schwartz, whom Walberg defeated in the 2006 Republican Primary.

Ballot Initiatives

Michigan voters passed a Medical Marijuana initiative by a very wide margin, 63%-37%.  But the initiative that drew the most money, and that was the prime target of the conservatives, was Prop. 2, which would use state money to fund stem-cell research.  Voters passed Prop. 2 by 53%-47%.

State House of Representatives

In August, I predicted that Democrats would pick up anywhere from 3-7 seats in the State House. Democrats picked up a total of 9 seats!  That is three more than we won in 2006. It is also the second cycle in a row that we did not lose a single seat, a 15 seat streak.  We now have a 67-43 advantage, only 6 seats away from a 2/3 majority.  It also means that we are almost certain to hold the State House in 2012, just in time for redistricting.  Here are the Democrats who picked up Republican held seats:

District 62-Calhoun County, Battle Creek, Albion.

Kate Segal (D)-62% Gregory Moore (R)-32%

District 101- Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, and Mason Counties.

Dan Scripps (D)-60% Ray Franz (R)40%

District 1- Wayne County, Northeast Detroit, Harper Woods, Grosse Pointe

Tim Bledsoe (D)-57% Mary Treder Lang (R)-43%

District 108- Delta, Menominee, and Dickinson Counties

Judy Nerat (D)-56% Mike Falcon (R)-44%

District 70- Montcalm County, part of Ionia County

Mike Huckleberry-(D) 54% Tom Ginster-(R) 46%

District 21- Wayne County, Canton

Dian Slavens (D)-52% Todd LaJoy-(R) 45%

District 39- Oakland County, West Bloomfield Township

Lisa Brown (D)-52% Amy Peterman-(R) 46%

District 32- Northeast Macomb County, Central St. Clair County

Jennifer Haase-(D) 50% John Accavitti-(R) 47%

District 24- Macomb County, St. Clair Shores

Sarah Roberts (D)-49% Bryan Brandenburg-47%

And the narrow losers:

District 61- Western Kalamazoo County, Portage

Julie Rogers (D)-49% Larry DeShazor (R)-51%

District 43- Oakland County, Waterford Township

Scott Hudson (D)-47% Gail Haines (R)-49%

District 78- Southern Berrien County, Western Cass County

Judy Truesdell (D)-52% Sharon Tyler (R)-52%

District 51- Southern Genesee County

Michael Thorp (D)-47% Paul Scott (R)-53%

Democrats held all competitve seats.  Here are the closest contests for Democrat held seats:

District 91- Muskegon County except Muskegon, Northeast Ottawa County

Mary Valentine (D)-54% Holly Hughes (R)-46%

District 106- Alcona, Alpena, Crawford, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Presque Isle Counties.

Andy Neumann (D)-53% Peter Pettalia (R)-44%

These two were actually the only remotely competitive Democrat races.  

Republicans targeted also targeted the following Democrats who took over Republican seats in 2006: Marc Courriveau won 59-41, Robert Dean won 58-40, Terry Brown won 65-35, Mike Simpson won 63-37, and Martin Griffin won 63-37.  Vicki Barnett also won a competitve open seat 60-40.

2010

Thad McCotter (R-11th District), the Congressman who reprents Suburban portions of Wayne and Oakland Counties, only won re-election 45-51.  State Senator Glenn Anderson represents almost all of the portion of the 11th District that lies in Wayne County. Anderson may decide to run against Mad Thad in 2010.  State Rep-elect Dian Slavens, who pulled an upset in her race this year, may also run.  Marc Courriveau also scored an upset in a strongly Republican district in 2006.  Courriveau would be the best candidate, in my opinion.  He’s young, from a Republican area, and has run for congress three times in the area.

The State Senate will also be up for re-election in 2010.  We have to take control of this body if we want to control the redistricting process, as we could well lose the governors office.  

Races to watch are The 7th District in suburban Wayne County, which will be open, The 34th which includes heavily Democratic Muskegon County and will also be open. The 20th will also be open in 2010. It is currently the most Democratic district held by a Republican in the entire state.  All three district were won by Barack Obama, and will be open in 2010.  We only need three districts to take control, since we currently hold 17 seats to the republicans 21.  These three districts will probably be the top targets of the State Democratic Party.

Time to check in on the state legislatures one more time before the election (I did a more detailed summary two weeks ago).

This week, the New York Times and the AP both had long pieces that provide good overviews of where the competitive chambers are. Interestingly, both pieces stopped to dwell on the Maine Senate, where, although Obama is poised to dominate at the top of the ticket, Democratic control (by a current 18-17 margin) could be lost. The whole chamber turns on one Dem-held open seat in York County, and public anger over a new alcoholic beverage tax. (Although doesn’t everyone in that part of the state just go get their licka in New Hampshire?)

The biggest prize, and the only state where we’ve seen actual public polling of legislative races, is still the New York Senate. There aren’t any more polls to report here, but one story of note is that Dennis Delano, the one Republican to present a serious challenge to any Democratic-held senate seat, is apparently running for office in violation of the Hatch Act, a federal law that prohibits municipal employees from running for partisan office (in this case, Delano is currently suspended from the Buffalo PD, but still receiving pay).

Our friends at the Burnt Orange Report have been closely following the Texas House race, which has provided the Democrats with an outside shot of flipping the chamber (Dems are currently down 79-71). They previously highlighted four GOP-held seats that were Lean Dem or Tossup, giving Democrats a route to a tied chamber. Recently, they upgraded one other race to Tossup: Carol Kent vs. Rep. Tony Goolsby in HD-102 in north Dallas. Although retaking the Texas House has been considered a two-cycle project, a table-running here would get it done this year. They also listed a number of Lean Republican seats that could flip with a strong-enough gale (HD-55, HD-101, HD-133, and Sherrie Matula in HD-129, whom I know has a few boosters at this site).

The Ballot Box blog at Governing Magazine has been profiling various legislatures in the past few months, and recently featured a few more, including the Ohio House. This is another one that initially seemed like a two-cycle project needing to be accomplished before 2010 redistricting, but this article seems surprisingly sanguine on a Democratic takeover, giving that a 50-50 shot. (Republicans currently control it 53-46, so four seats need to flip.) Two factors are seen at work: the Democrats’ overall advantages in the ground game here, and the disproportionate impact of term limits on the Republicans, leaving 20 GOP seats open to only 6 Democratic seats open, with particularly strong possibilities in the Democratic-trending Columbus area.

They also profile the Michigan House, which Democrats currently control by a narrow 58-52 margin. The Republicans had early hopes to flip it, what with the unpopular Granholm administration and recall efforts against some representatives including Speaker Andy Dillon. However, the same dynamic in Ohio is playing out in Michigan, on perhaps an even bigger scale: Republicans are hurt by term limits, with 29 GOP open seats compared to 16 Democratic vacancies. And the GOP is reeling from the McCain campaign’s abandonment of the state, leaving downballot operations in a vacuum.

Got any other information or predictions to share about a state legislature near you? Please chip in in the comments.

Cross-posted at 21st Century Democrats blog.

Afraid that they will lose this election, Republicans have turned ACORN into the boogie man. They are making baseless claims that ACORN is perpetuating voter fraud due to its voter registration activities.

In fact, the Republican National Committee’s chief lawyer has labeled ACORN a “quasi-criminal organization,” and McCain’s campaign has launched ads accusing the group of “massive voter fraud” and bullying banks into making risky home loans. McCain’s camp is also trying to link Democratic Sen. Barack Obama to ACORN. Last night, McCain said, “ACORN is destroying the fabric of democracy.”

Rather than cower in fear, 21st Century Democrats is proud we honored Katy Gall of Ohio Acorn with our 2008 Paul and Sheila Wellstone Award. And we are equally proud to have honored Ohio Secretary of State, Jennifer Brunner, as one of our Leaders-in-Action – another target of Republican voter suppression tactics.

Now we will be partnering with No Voter Left Behind to fight voter suppression and vote theft in Ohio and throughout the country because these charges are just another chapter in the long history of conservatives trying to suppress and steal votes.

Paul Weyrich, “father” of the right-wing movement and co-founder of the Heritage Foundation, Moral Majority and various other groups telling a gathering of conservatives that he doesn’t want people to vote. In fact he says, “Our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down.”

Here are some additional facts:

• ACORN has helped 1.3 million citizens from all parties and all walks of life register to vote.
• In most states, ACORN is required by law to turn in every voter registration card – even in cases where the cards are not valid.
• It is ACORN that has reported almost all of the issues regarding voter registration cards.
• Invalid voter registration cards do NOT constitute voter fraud. Even RNC General Counsel Sean Cairncross has recently acknowledged he is not aware of a single improper vote cast as a result of bad cards submitted in the course of an organized voter registration effort.
• A 2005 study by the League of Women Voters and the Coalition on Homelessness and Housing in Ohio found that only 4 of about 9, 000,000 votes cast in the state from 2002-2004 were fraudulent.

Here are some additional links to the voter suppression efforts in Michigan this cycle: Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

(Proudly cross-posted at C4O)

Last week, we finished surveying the lay of the land out West. This week, we begin to turn our attention to the Midwest. Yes, that’s right. The Midwest looks to be once again a crucial battleground to win both the White House and Congress. And with just six weeks left until election day, we’d like to talk about the state of the races in America’s Heartland.

So would you like to join us?

Let’s begin with Ohio. Ohio may yet again be THE critical swing state this year, as polls show an extremely tight race here. However, the Presidential race isn’t the only exciting contest in The Buckeye State. We also have some great opportunities to win some more Congressional seats as well!

In the Columbus based 15th District, we have a great candidate in Mary Jo Kilroy. She’s currently a Franklin County (Columbus) Commissioner who has a terrific record of accomplishments in bringing Republicans and Democrats together to enact real solutions to the county’s economic, health care, and environmental problems. But while Kilroy offers a message of real change, her Republican opponent only offers more of the same Bush-Cheney-McCain nonsense. Mary Jo Kilroy nearly ousted the Republican incumbent in 2006 (who’s now retiring) and Bush barely squeaked by with 50% of the vote here in 2004, so this district is ripe for the picking in 2008! With the DCCC and EMILY’S List already all in here, our help can really help put Mary Jo Kilroy (and Barack Obama, for that matter!) on top this November.

Another race that the DCCC and other top Democrats are targeting in Ohio is the 16th District. Here, Air Force veteran and current state representative John Boccieri is running to bring some real change for Northeast Ohio. He’s fought for our country, and he now wants to fight for Ohioans… For more and better jobs, affordable health care, and real help in these perilous economic times. Meanwhile, Republican Kurt Schuring… Well, he’s not quite as fond of his possible future constituents. This race is quite winnable for Democrats, and we have a terrific candidate in John Boccieri. If we support him, he will win.

Another state that’s critical for Barack Obama this fall is Michigan. The race here is close, but the renewed focus on the economy does seem to help Obama here. If there’s any state that’s been severely hit by the economic downturn, it’s Michigan.  And hopefully with Obama’s message resonating here, we can also elect more good Democrats to Congress from here.

One great candidate running is Gary Peters from Michigan’s 9th District (Oakland County, Detroit suburbs). Peters is an accomplished state legislator, business owner, and a Navy Veteran who signed up again to serve after 9/11. Unlike the incumbent Republican Joe Knollenberg, Peters wants to get to work to help rebuild Michigan’s economy. But in order to make change happen here, we need to help Gary Peters win.

Michigan and Ohio are two critical swing states for Barack Obama to win this fall. If he wins them both, he’ll likely win the White House. But in addition to the Presidential race, we have critical Congressional races to win as well in these two states. Please don’t forget to help all these wonderful Democrats win by giving what you can here and by volunteering for the campaign if you live in or near any of these districts. With our help, we’ll make victory happen on November 4 in the Midwest and all over the country! 🙂

Note From Diarist:  This diary is primarily about the Presidential campaign.  I wrote it for Daily Kos but didn’t feel it got the exposure I was hoping for.  It’s very much inside baseball politics so I thought it might have some fans around here, but it is about the Presidential campaign which I know is no longer the focus of the website.  If the moderator wishes to delete it, I’ll understand.

Anybody following the horse race at all has a pretty good idea where the key battlegrounds are expected to be. My personal opinion is that the three markets that are most likely to determine the 2008 election winner are, in this order, Denver (including Boulder and Fort Collins), Detroit, and Northern Virginia. Beyond those three, there are at least a dozen markets in key battleground states that will be sucking up the vast majority of campaign resources in the next 50-some days until the election. That’s the way the game is played and always will be for as long as the Electoral College is a reality. My thought process this morning was dedicated to isolating some geographic hotspots that are perhaps under-the-radar of conventional wisdom yet could nonetheless be very productive investments of time and resources for the Obama campaign. The top-10 I came up with are listed below in descending order.

10. Flagstaff, Arizona–Because it’s John McCain’s home state, nobody expects Arizona to be a swing state in 2008. It probably won’t be, but the most recent poll released from the state showed McCain leading by only six in Arizona, a smaller lead than he held in the expected battleground state of Nevada. The Obama campaign needs to do some internal polling in Arizona and see if their findings reflect the recent polling of a single-digit McCain lead. If it is, I think it would be entirely worthwhile to pour some campaign dollars in the less-expensive media market of Flagstaff, which is already favorable Democratic terrain, and also to set up a campaign stop there. It would be very embarrassing for the McCain campaign if Obama went to the university town of Flagstaff and filled the streets with tens of thousands of screaming fans in McCain’s backyard. Obviously this is not something we’re likely to see in the closing weeks of the campaign, but for headfake value alone, it’s something worth doing in September.

9. Aberdeen, South Dakota–I’ve seen only one poll coming out of South Dakota, and it showed McCain with a scant four-point lead. I don’t expect Obama to win there, but I’m puzzled why the prospect of a competitive South Dakota is not even being discussed even when the polls are similar to those of North Dakota, which is a battleground. Aberdeen is a worthwhile target for a September campaign stop and television ads for a number of reasons. This is the Democratic part of South Dakota. Tim Johnson and Stephanie Herseth pulled out statewide victories in 2002 and 2004 by running up the score in the counties in and around Aberdeen. Given that the Democrats have adopted a much more friendly platform to controversial-everywhere-but-the-Corn-Belt biofuels than Republicans in 2008, Obama could pick off alot of GOP-leaning farmers in eastern South Dakota who don’t trust McCain’s commitment to agriculture. Beyond that, Obama could do a rally with hometown boy Tom Daschle and really make some connections to voters who were out of reach for Gore and Kerry. I’m not certain about particulars of the Aberdeen media market, but I suspect it would be one of the cheapest in the country for advertising, and cuts into portions of North Dakota making it even more useful.

8. Wheeling, West Virginia–I have a good friend who lives deep into the hollers of Logan County, WV, and still insists from her interactions that she believes Obama will win West Virginia. I suspect that puts her in a minority small enough to count on one hand, but I still think some outreach effort into West Virginia would be valuable, particularly in the Wheeling area. Obama essentially ceded West Virginia to Hillary in the primary, making only one campaign stop in Charleston on the eve of the primary. Voters there don’t know him, but I suspect that if more do, the margin for McCain in the state could potentially be far less lopsided than if he doesn’t set foot there. More importantly though, I think Wheeling is important for the same reason it was important for Kerry four years ago. The market cuts into Ohio and Pennsylvania, specifically the very blue-collar regions of Ohio and Pennsylvania where Obama has the most work to do to win over skeptics. I suspect campaigning in this area is something of a defensive move, meaning his best hope is probably to cut losses rather than win over Bush voters, but in the context of controlling losses within statewide races in OH and PA, the old adage that the best offense is a good defense certainly seems to apply.

7. Council Bluffs, Iowa–Each new round of poll numbers indicate that Iowa appears less likely to ultimately be a battleground state, with Obama managing double-digit leads in the state. Again, I surmise that the untold story accounting for Obama’s strong performance throughout the Corn Belt (even Indiana!) is ethanol, specifically McCain’s previous hard-line opposition to it. The reason Council Bluffs is a secret weapon is twofold. It’s location in the heavily Republican southwest side of Iowa means the Obama campaign is on offense there, competing for traditionally Republican votes in western Iowa, but also competing for votes in Omaha, Nebraska, just across the Missouri River from Council Bluffs. We don’t hear much anymore about the prospect of Obama winning one (or even two) of the electoral votes in eastern Nebraska, and it remains a longshot. Nonetheless, raising Obama’s presence in western Iowa will have spillover effect in Omaha and the corn farmers surrounding it in Nebraska, leaving the prospect of robbing McCain of a Nebraska electoral vote on the table while simultaneously running up the score in Iowa.

6. Durango, Colorado–Chances are, the suburban doughnut surrounding Denver will decide who wins Colorado’s nine electoral votes, but if the race is as close there as most suspect it will end up being, smaller Colorado markets loom large. The fast-changing demography of Colorado was abundantly clear in the 2004 election, and perhaps no place was the change more obvious than Durango, formerly a Republican stronghold in Colorado’s southwest corner, where population growth is apparently fronted by left-leaning young people drawn to the area’s ski culture. I believe there were only five counties in America that Bill Clinton never won in 1992 or 1996, but where John Kerry won in 2004. La Plata County, Colorado, home of Durango, was one of them. If we assume that the trendlines that had clearly transformed Durango in 2004 have continued, Obama should be able to grow upon Kerry’s margin rather significantly in the area in 2008. The fact that neighboring battleground state New Mexico is a few miles south of Durango is an an additional bullet point for its utility.

5. South Bend, Indiana–Congressman Joe Donnelly showed us the potential northern Indiana holds for Democrats if we simply try there. The lesson appears to be learned as Indiana is deemed a battleground state in 2008. South Bend strikes me as the most consequential market in Indiana. Notre Dame University gives Obama a youthful base of operation while simultaneously providing Obama an outreach to Catholic voters, a demographic long cited as one of his most difficult to reach. The South Bend market also reaches into southwestern Michigan, and despite fairly encouraging polls of late, I think Obama will ultimately need all the help in can get in Michigan. Probably outside of the South Bend market but still worthy of mention is another Indiana town in Joe Donnelly’s Congressional district, Kokomo. This is a blue-collar factory town that Democrats should be winning, but rarely do. Voters in Kokomo may be some of the most likely to swing if the Obama campaign reaches out to them in a serious way.

4. Elko, Nevada–In 2004, it seemed like John Kerry was spending more time in Republican-leaning Reno than in Democratic-leaning Las Vegas. I didn’t really understand it at the time, until I saw the election returns and noticed Kerry had significantly cut into the GOP’s advantage in Reno and surrounding areas. The reason Kerry lost Nevada was that he got absolutely destroyed in rural Nevada. Obama, by contrast, beat Hillary in most rural Nevada counties, meaning there’s at least a basis for thinking he could overperform Kerry in places like Elko. Campaigning and advertising in Elko would really be taking Kerry’s 2004 effort to go on offense in Reno to the next level. Considering Kerry got less than 20% of the vote in Nevada’s fourth most populous county, worse than both Mondale and Dukakis did back in the day, there’s easily room for improvement in the area, and even a little improvement upstate Nevada could be the difference in the state.

3. Cincinnati, Ohio–Now considering Cincinnati is the third-largest media market in what is considered perhaps the most critical battleground state, calling for an Obama campaign presence there is on the surface a no-brainer, but most importantly, I see metropolitan Cincinnati as the region of Ohio where Obama is best-positioned to make gains over John Kerry. Kerry narrowly lost Hamilton County (home of the city of Cincinnati and the core of its suburbs), but with a high African-American turnout in 2008, I strongly expect the county to turn blue. Just as important are the three crimson red exurban counties surrounding Cincinnati, which accounted for Bush’s entire margin of victory in Ohio in 2004. In every election since 2004, the needle has moved dramatically against Republicans in all of these counties (Butler, Clermont, and Warren), with Jean Schmidt, Ken Blackwell, and Mike DeWine, all badly underperforming traditional GOP margins in the area. If Obama can keep this trendline going and trim his losses by a few percentage points in suburban Cincinnati, it will go a long way towards offsetting his likely underperformance in the rural portions of Ohio. And to whatever extent the Cincinnati market is an outreach into Indiana is also a feather in our cap.

2. Michigan’s Upper Peninsula–With the racial polarization of metropolitan Detroit, enflamed by the Kwame Kilpatrick scandal, and Obama’s call for tougher CAFE standards fiercely opposed by Detroit automakers, the McCain campaign has some serious ammunition against Obama to take into Michigan. I fully expect Obama will underperform Gore and Kerry in metropolitan Detroit. With that in mind, the thought process should become where we can pick up additional votes in Michigan to offset the possible hemorrhaging in the population centers. To that end, it seems like a no-brainer for Obama to take his campaign up north…way up north. The blue-collar Upper Peninsula of Michigan is sparsely populated, but its demographics seem to align with other Midwestern areas that are Obama-friendly. More to the point, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan looks like Wisconsin, thinks like Wisconsin, and votes like Wisconsin. When you look at Obama’s healthy standing in Wisconsin polls compared to Kerry four years ago or Gore’s eight years ago, my thinking is that every Obama campaign rally that begins in Green Bay should make the quick drive to Marquette, Michigan, from there.

1. Fargo-Moorhead (North Dakota/Minnesota)–I suspect there is no other media market in the country where the needle will move more significantly in Obama’s favor compared to 2000 and 2004 than Fargo-Moorhead. To the extent that North Dakota has already been identified as a battleground state, Obama’s campaign already has a presence in the area, but may nonetheless not appreciate just how many things are working to their candidate’s favor here. First of all, the cities of Fargo and Moorhead are islands of youth in a region otherwise dominated by gray hair. That cuts to Obama’s advantage demographically. Furthermore, in addition to Obama’s more farmer-friendly stand on biofuels, the Democrats have an additional ace-in-the-hole here because the region is one of the nation’s top sugar-growing areas. The sugar industry has enjoyed its relative “cartel” status and has become decidedly protectionist since the passage of CAFTA in 2005, a vote which helped every Democrat on the ticket in Minnesota in 2006 score landslide margins in the Red River Valley. Particularly on the Minnesota side, this area is historically Democratic, even though both Gore and Kerry were destroyed here. This advantage on both sides of the river extends further to the Grand Forks area, a region of North Dakota where every Democrat needs to win big in a competitive statewide race. It’s expected that Minnesota is leaning heavily Obama, but don’t underestimate the pseudo-maverick image of John McCain fooling alot of moderate suburbanites in Minneapolis-St. Paul. That raises the stakes for Obama’s need to win in places like the Red River Valley, which early indications suggest he is poised to do.

We all know that Information about State Legislature races are hard to find.  They are also very important to redistricting control of congress in 2012.  

Here I have listed all or most of Michigan’s State House of Representatives competitives races, as well as the candidates, most recent fundraising figures, and the partisan turnout from last month’s primary election.

I have also roughly rated the districts a tossup and leans.  Democrats are heavily favored to control the House, and they will likely gain several seats.  Here is a map of the Districts http://www.vcsnet.com/State.ph…  But just remember that there are 110 districts, of which the Democrats control 57.  The lower the district number, the closer the district is to Detroit.  The higher the number, the farther north.

Republican Seats Leaning Democrat

108th- (Open, Tom Casperson,R)

Judy Nerat (D) vs. Mike Falcon (R)

CTD- $10,172 vs. $20,192  COH- $6,099 vs. $7,542

Turnout- 67% Democrat, 33% Republican

39th- (Open, David Law,R)

Lisa Brown (D) vs. Amy Peterman (R)

CTD- $39,776 vs. $69,061  COH- $25,207 vs. $8,945

Turnout- 57% Democrat, 43% Republican

Republican Seats Tossup

62nd-  (Open, Mike Nofs, R)

Kate Segal (D) vs. Gregory Moore (R)

CTD- $56,394 vs. $25,064 COH- $43,837 vs. $12,325

Turnout- 53% Democrat,  47% Republican

61st- (Open, Jack Hoogendyk, R)

Julie Rogers (D) vs. Larry DeShazor (R)

CTD- $54,170 vs. $27,890  COH- $33,755 vs. $2,145

Turnout- 75% Republican,  25% Democrat

1st- (Open, Ed Gaffney, R)

Tim Bledsoe (D) vs. Mary Treder Lang (R)

CTD- $13,850 vs. $66,877 COH- $-6,638 vs.$6,273  

Turnout- 58% Democrat,  42% Republican

101st- (Open, David Palsrok, R)

Dan Scripps (D) vs. Ray Franz (R)

CTD- $92,686 vs. $30,258  COH- $29,296 vs. $2,459

Turnout-  77% Republican,  23% Democrat

78th-  (Open, Neal Nitz, R)

Judy Truesdell (D) vs. Sharon Tyler (R)

CTD- $39,439 vs. $36,629  COH- $26,186 vs. $5,711

Turnout-  79% Republican,  21% Democrat

70th-  (Open, Judy Emmons, R)

Mike Huckleberry (D) vs. Thomas Ginster (R)

CTD- $16,920 vs. $11,840  COH- $-996 vs. $3,720

Turnout-  82% Republican,  18% Democrat

24th-  (Open, Jack Brandenburg, R)

Sarah Roberts (D) vs. Brian Brandenburg (R)

CTD- $44,586 vs. $47,921  COH- $11,644 vs. 31,835

Turnout-  62% Democrat,  38% Republican

32nd-  (Open, Daniel Acciavatti, R)

Jennifer Haase (D) vs. John Acciavatti (R)

CTD- $28,991 vs. $18,444  COH- $18,836 vs. $4,401

Turnout-  55% Republican,  45% Democrat

Republican Seats Leaning Republican

51st-  (Open, David Robertson, R)

Michael Thorp (D) vs. Paul Scott (R)

CTD- $13,415 vs. $137,549 COH- $1,799 vs. $22,225

Turnout-  60% Republican, 40% Democrat

98th-  (Open, John Moolenaar, R)

Garnet Lewis (D) vs. Jim Stamas (R)

CTD- $75,579 vs. $49,509 COH- $39,350 vs. $15,045

Turnout-  66% Republican, 34% Democrat

97th-  (Tim Moore, R)

Kathy Wilton (D) vs. Tim Moore (R)

CTD- $0.00 vs. $59,590  COH- $0.00 vs. $36,719

Turnout-  59% Democrat, 41% Republican

21st-  (Open, Phillip LaJoy, R)

Dian Slavens (D) vs. Todd LaJoy (R)

CTD- $50,477 vs. $67,270 COH- $26,725 vs. $47,248

Turnout-  51% Republican, 49% Democrat

73rd-  (Tom Pearce, R)

Bruce Hawley (D) vs. Tom Pearce (R)

CTD- $30,179 vs. $21,515  COH- $22,545 vs. $5,527

Turnout-  80% Republican, 20% Democrat

Democrat Seats Tossup

106th-  (Open, Matt Gillard, D)

Andy Neumann (D) vs. Peter Pettalia (R)

CTD- $27,595 vs. $27,444  COH- $10,671 vs. $3,749

Turnout-  60% Republican, 40% Democrat

65th- (Mike Simpson, D)

Mike Simpson (D) vs. Ray Snell (R)

CTD- $143,105 vs. $13,465 COH- $101,886 vs.$4,556

Turnout-  56% Republican, 44% Democrat

37th- (Open, Aldo Vagnozzi, D)

Vicki Barnett (D) vs. Paul Welday (R)

CTD- $45,608 vs. $60,883 COH- $32,118 vs. $34,506

Turnout-  50% Republican, 50% Democrat

Democrat Seats Leaning Democrat

23rd- (Open, Kathleen Law, D)

Deb Kennedy (D) vs. Neil DeBlois (R)

CTD- $19,859 vs. $14,845  COH- $7,077 vs. $4,787

Turnout-  66% Democrat,  34% Republican

20th- (Marc Courriveau, D)

Marc Courriveau (D) vs. Jerry Vorva (R)

CTD- $147,164 vs. $0.00  COH- $96,421 vs. $0.00

Turnout-  55% Republican,  45% Democrat

91st- (Mary Valentine, D)

Mary Valentine (D) vs. Holly Hughes (R)

CTD-$146,002 vs. $81,921 COH- $102,681 vs.$55,711

Turnout-  62% Democrat, 38% Republican

75th- (Robert Dean, D)

Robert Dean (D) vs. Dan Tietema (R)

CTD- $80,004 vs. $34,834  COH- $31,430 vs. $7,455

Turnout-  63% Republican, 37% Democrat

84th- (Terry Brown, D)

Terry Brown (D) vs. Anna Kabot (R)

CTD- $57,086 vs. $6,215  COH- $47,586 vs.

Turnout-  73% Republican, 27% Democrat

Today we’re excited to announce that our campaign raised more than $427,000 in the second quarter, which breaks the previous fundraising record we set earlier this year. Combined with the last three quarters when Sen. Schauer outraised incumbent Tim Walberg, we have brought in more than $1.33 million and have more than $928,000 cash on hand.

In this quarter alone, the campaign collected more than 1,100 total contributions, with more than 83 percent of individual contributions from donors in Michigan. With just over 100 days to go before the general election, we have now raised more than our opponent brought in during the entire 2006 election cycle.

Congressman Walberg has done nothing to improve Michigan’s job climate since taking office, but we fully expect him to do whatever it takes to keep his seat in Washington. That’s why it’s so important for us to keep working hard to defend against the impending negative attacks from Walberg’s wealthy donors.

Thanks to everyone in the netroots community for your continued support!

B.J. Neidhardt

Campaign Manager

Schauer for Congress (MI-07) | Facebook

Update: Here are Tim Walberg’s numbers for the second quarter. We have now out-raised the incumbent Congressman four quarters in a row…

Raised for the Quarter: $364,924

Total Raised this Cycle: $1,208,345

Spent this Quarter: $114,253

Cash on Hand: $855,137

I know that it’s easy here at Swing State Project to get seduced by all the glitz and glamour of U.S. House races. (That sounds hilarious when you think about how incredibly nerdy it sounds, but, well, there’s a kernel of truth there.) Bear with me for a minute, though, as we drop down to the real meat and potatoes of American politics: state legislatures. I’ll try to keep everyone updated in future months about developments in some of the biggest contests, but here’s a primer to start with.

Here are some reasons why you should very much care. First, the states are often the crucibles for experimentation with progressive policy. That’s especially been the case over the last few decades of Republican domination at the national level, although hopefully that will change once we actually have a progressive trifecta in Washington.

Consider where the movement toward civil rights and marriage or civil union rights for gays and lesbians has occurred: it’s been purely at the state level. If and when truly universal health care happens, given the difficulty of getting it through Congress, it’s most likely to happen in some of the states (and the some of the boldest moves in that direction have already occurred in the states, such as in Vermont and Oregon… and not coincidentally, back when they had MDs for governors).

Also, the state legislatures are our bench for federal office. The GOP may be the party of wealthy self-funders popping out of nowhere, but the Democrats are largely a meritocratic bunch and many of our best have stints in the state legislature on their resume, where they honed their skills and built their networks. Just as one example, consider what the guy who, four years ago today, was representing the 13th District of the Illinois State Senate is up to now.

Finally, in most states, the state legislatures control the redistricting process, not just for themselves but for U.S. House districts as well. The entire shape and terrain of the nationwide electoral battlefield for the entire 2010s will be determined by who has control of the legislature in key states following the 2010 election. This is partly why we were so hosed during the early 2000s: GOP-held legislatures in states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan drew remarkably GOP-favorable maps. And even when the blue wave came in 2006, the pro-GOP gerrymanders probably saved them the loss of even more seats.

Some GOP-held legislatures are ready to flip now; others have the Democrats in a somewhat deeper hole, but a sustained push over two electoral cycles can have the Democrats in control in 2010. Let’s take a look at the key playing fields for this year and the next few years, starting with Republican-held legislatures that are within striking distance. (The rank order is mostly gut-level, although I did use some informal metrics involving the size of the state, how close the gap between the two parties is, and how much is at stake for that state with 2010 redistricting.)

Democratic offense

1) New York Senate

30 Democrats, 32 Republicans (62 total)

1 to tie, 2 to flip (Republicans would sort-of break the tie, as Joe Bruno is both Senate Majority Leader and Acting Lt. Governor because of David Paterson having become Governor, although he still gets only one vote)

Two-year terms, no term limits

Constituents per seat: 311,000

I think most prognosticators would agree with me that this is one is currently the big enchilada. The Republican edge in the Senate, resulting from the long-term presence of GOP lifers in seats that Dem-leaning areas (seriously… 7 of the GOP senators have been in place since the 1970s), has allowed Joe Bruno to single-handedly act as a brake on implementing the progressive agenda in New York.

Moreover, the opportunity for a Democratic trifecta in Albany (Dems currently control the Governor’s seat, and the Assembly by a wide margin) in 2010 would mean complete control over the redistricting process, and an opportunity to dislodge any remaining GOP Congressmen in New York. (Although it’s looking likely that there won’t be more than two or three left after the 2008 election!) New York is predicted to lose two house seats after the 2010 census, and the blow can be softened by making sure both are GOP-held seats.

We’ve edged two seats closer to takeover since the 2006 election via two special elections (in SD-7 on Long Island and SD-48 in far north Upstate). All 62 seats are up this year; unlike most other Senates, in New York, Senators serve two-year terms and are up for re-election every cycle. Robert Harding at the Albany Report has begun an ongoing series handicapping the competitive Senate races, and also started an excellent series of diaries profiling each of the Senate districts.

Of Harding’s most competitive seats, 8 of the 10 are currently GOP-held; the top two are SD-15 and S-11, two seats in heavily Democratic Queens held by GOP oldsters (Serphin Maltese and Frank Padavan). While polling of individual districts hasn’t begun, a Quinnipiac poll released yesterday found that, statewide, voters prefer a Democratic State Senate to a Republican one by a margin of 51 to 35.

2) Texas House

71 Democrats, 79 Republicans (150 total)

4 to tie, 5 to flip

Two-year terms, no term limits

Constituents per seat: 157,000

The Texas House has been controlled by Republicans since 2003. As you probably recall, their first order of business was to engage in the mid-decade DeLay-mander that led to the Dems’ electoral wipeout in 2004 (although several victims of that wipeout have managed to claw their way back into the House). Texas is predicted to gain as many as four seats in the U.S. House through 2010 reapportionment, and given the Texas GOP’s skill at creating bizarre tapeworm-shaped districts, it’s possible that, if we don’t have a seat at the redistricting table, all four of those seats could wind up GOP-leaning. (Given how close the House is, that seat is much likelier to come there than via the Governor or the Senate, where we’re in a deeper hole at 11 D/20 R.)

In addition, in terms of implementing policy, the House Speaker (currently Tom Craddick) is basically the most powerful person in Texas politics, much more so than the Governor. Four seats may seem a little steep – and this may wind up being a two-cycle project, although given the stakes, it’s critically important to follow through – but given the rapid demographic changes occurring in Texas (the same ones that are suddenly putting TX-07 and TX-10 within reach) it’s doable.

3) Pennsylvania Senate

21 Democrats, 29 Republicans (50 total)

4 to tie, 5 to flip (Lt. Governor, currently Dem, breaks tie)

Four-year terms, limit of two terms, half elected each election

Constituents per seat: 249,000

The Pennsylvania Senate is definitely a two-cycle project, as only half of the 50 seats are up for election in 2008, and it’ll be hard to turn more than one or two this year. I’m listing this as high as #3 because Pennsylvania is, after New York, the largest blue state where one of the legislative bodies is Republican-controlled. Like New York, this is because of old-school Republicans hanging on in areas that have long since gone Democratic, at least at the presidential level (Delaware, Montgomery, and Bucks Counties in particular). A prominent example is Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi, who represents part of Delaware County.

In addition, Pennsylvania is projected to lose another seat in the U.S. House in 2010, so control of the redistricting process will be key. (Hellish redistricting in 2000 managed to turn their U.S. House delegation from 11 R-10 D in 2000 to 12 R-7 D in 2002. Of course, spreading the seats as thin as they did wasn’t that wise, as we got the last laugh in 2006, flipping four seats.)

4) Nevada Senate

10 Democrats, 11 Republicans (21 total)

1 to flip

Four-year terms, limit of three terms, half elected each election

Constituents per seat: 119,000 (except for two multi-member seats)

Nevada is a smallish state, but it ranks high on this list because it’s so closely divided (only one seat needs to change hands to flip control to the Democrats). The Democrats already control the state Assembly by a safe 27-15 margin, and given Jim Gibbons’ problems, may well take back the Governor’s seat in 2010, in which case flipping the Senate would give them the trifecta.

Nevada is also important from a redistricting standpoint, as it will be gaining a seat in 2010. We have a good shot to create three Dem-leaning seats in Clark County, each of which contain part Las Vegas and part suburbs, so, again, control of the redistricting process is key.

5) Tennessee Senate

16 Democrats, 16 Republicans, 1 Independent (Speaker is R)

1 to flip

Four-year terms, half elected every election

Constituents per seat: 183,000

Tennessee’s Senate is one of two tied legislative bodies right now (Oklahoma’s Senate is the other one), but the Republicans currently control the Speaker’s seat (Ron Ramsey won the Speaker vote 18-15, including the support of one Dem). This is on the list because a shift of one seat would give the Democrats control (assuming that Rosalind Kurita, the Dem who flipped would vote for a Democratic speaker in the event of a clear Democratic majority). Democrats already control the House and the Governorship.

This is a bit lower on the list because Tennessee is expected to retain nine House seats in 2010. Changes around the margins, however, could either work toward making existing Democratic seats safer, or else trying to make TN-07 competitive.

Others to watch

The Michigan Senate would be near the top of the list, as we’re down 17 D-21 R and only need to pick up two seats to tie it (where the Dem Lt. Gov. would break the tie). Michigan has one of the most pro-GOP gerrymanders in the nation, which will need to be undone in 2010. However, we can’t do anything about it yet because no Senators are up for election in 2008; all 38 stand in 2010.

The Virginia House of Delegates is a ripe target, especially in view of having just taken over the Virginia Senate. We’re down 45 D-53 R-2 I (the Independents both caucus GOP), so a swing of six would give us the trifecta. This election, however, won’t happen until 2009.

As I mentioned, the Oklahoma Senate is also tied, split 24-24. We maintain functional control over the Senate because of the Democratic Lt. Governor, however (although a power-sharing agreement gives the Republicans control during the month of July, believe it or not).

Wisconsin’s Assembly is within reach, with Dems down 47 D-52 R. And both chambers in Arizona are close (13 D-17 R in the Senate, and 27 D-33 R in the House); Arizona is set to gain two seats in 2010, but redistricting control isn’t at issue as the decisions are up to a nonpartisan commission.

Democratic defense

Now let’s take a look at legislatures where we’re going to have to play defense. I don’t foresee this being a cause for alarm, given broader Democratic strengths this cycle, but the fact that we currently control 57 legislatures to the GOP’s 39 means that we do need to watch our backs.

1) Pennsylvania House

102 Democrats, 101 Republicans (203 total)

1 to flip

Two-year terms

Constituents per seat: 61,000

A strong gust could tip the Pennsylvania House back to Republican control (especially considering that, although the Democrats control the chamber, they elected a Republican as speaker in a compromise). Looking at the sheer numbers of Republicans left in the Dem-leaning Philly burbs, the general trends point in our direction, but at only 61,000 constituents per seat, local-level dynamics can make all the difference.

2) Michigan House

58 Democrats, 52 Republicans (110 total)

3 to tie, 4 to flip

Two-year terms, limit of three terms

Constituents per seat: 92,000

In Michigan, the Dems hold the House and the Governorship, although both somewhat tenuously. Controlling the trifecta in 2010 is extremely important, as the pro-GOP gerrymander in the U.S. House seats needs to be undone (the split went from 9 D-7 R in 2000 to 9 R-6 D in 2002, where it persists today). Michigan is predicted to lose one more seat in 2010.

3) Indiana House

51 Democrats, 49 Republicans (100 total)

1 to tie, 2 to flip

Two-year terms

Constituents per seat: 63,000

The Democratic margin is Indiana is very narrow, and the only thing keeping the GOP from controlling the trifecta (the GOP has solid control over the Senate, at 33 R-17 D). Indiana is not predicted to lose a U.S. House seat in 2010, but a GOP gerrymander could make life much more difficult for the three Dem House members representing red districts in Indiana.

4) Oregon House

31 Democrats, 29 Republicans (60 total)

1 to tie, 2 to flip

Two-year terms

Constituents per seat: 62,000

Democrats in Oregon finally took back the House in 2006, giving them the trifecta (they have solid control over the Senate, at 19 D-11 R). This is on the list mostly by virtue of how close it is on paper, but the disparity wasn’t much of an impediment on Speaker Jeff Merkley’s ability to push through progressive legislation. With strong Obama coattails and the Republicans defending several suburban open seats, look for the Democrats to gain a few seats (as Skywaker9 at Daily Kos has thoroughly detailed). However, Oregon is set to gain a House seat in 2010, with the possibility of a 5-1 delegation if the Dems divvy up Portland correctly, so holding the trifecta through 2010 is important.

5) Illinois House

67 Democrats, 51 Republicans (118 total)

8 to tie, 9 to flip

Two-year terms

Constituents per seat: 109,000

Illinois doesn’t actually seem in that much danger this year, with a decent-sized cushion and major Obama coattails. The main reason this is on the list as opposed to a chamber with smaller margins is that Illinois is set to lose a U.S. House seat in 2010, and although we currently control the trifecta, we don’t want the GOP anywhere near the redistricting table.

A few other bodies are worth mentioning: the Virginia Senate (21 D-19 R), Louisiana House (53 D-49 R-1 I-2 V), and Mississippi Senate (27 D-25 R) are all very close, but these are all off-year elections and won’t be an issue until 2009.

(You might be wondering what our safest chamber is. I’d say it’s the Hawaii Senate, which we control 22 D-3 R.)

“Moneyball” opportunities

Finally, I wanted to turn my attention to several more pickup possibilities, which I’m calling the “moneyball” states. These tend to be the smallest states, where redistricting isn’t an issue because each one only gets one U.S. House seat, so they aren’t high priorities for us. On the other hand, these are the chambers that can be flipped for the smallest possible investment. I calculated this simply by multiplying the number of seats needed to flip by the number of constituents per seat (and thus the presumed expense of flipping a seat). Two of these cases (Delaware and Montana) would actually give the Dems the trifecta in those states.

1) Montana House

49 Democrats, 50 Republicans, 1 Constitution Party (100 total)

1 to tie, 2 to flip

Constituents per seat: 9,000

Moneyball number: 18,000

2) Delaware House

19 Democrats, 22 Republicans (41 total)

2 to flip

Constituents per seat: 21,000

Moneyball number: 42,000

3) North Dakota Senate

21 Democrats, 26 Republicans (47 total)

3 to flip

Constituents per seat: 14,000

Moneyball number: 42,000

4) South Dakota Senate

15 Democrats, 20 Republicans (35 total)

3 to flip

Constituents per seat: 22,000

Moneyball number: 66,000

5) Alaska House

17 Democrats, 23 Republicans (40 total)

3 to tie, 4 to flip

Constituents per seat: 17,000

Moneyball number: 68,000

There’s a real shortage of information out there at the national level about individual state legislature races, so if anyone of you out there know of any blogs or individual diarists that excel at handicapping state legislature races, please let us know in the comments and we’ll be sure and keep up with them as we approach November.