Tag: Michigan

9:41pm: Follow us over here.

9:40pm: I don’t think we’ve even mentioned the Kansas Dem Senate primary, not that we really need to. Lisa Johnston leads at 35, with Charles Schollenberger at 23, and David Haley (a state Senator and former SoS candidate, no less) a woeful 17.

9:39pm: Switching back to Kansas, things are getting tighter between Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt. Moran leads 49-44 with about 8% in.

9:36pm: Speaking of MI-02, that GOP primary may be the night’s most exciting match. It’s currently Huizenga 26, Kuipers 25, Riemersma 24, Cooper 19.

9:34pm: Although Peter Hoekstra can take some comfort in the fact that he’s still well-liked back home. He’s up 50-25 over Snyder within the bounds of MI-02.

9:33pm: As we close in on 20% statewide in Michigan, things are looking fairly stable in the governor’s races. Virg Bernero leads 58-24 over Andy Dillon for the Ds. For the GOP, it’s Snyder 36, Hoekstra 27, Cox 25, Bouchard 10. Looks like cornering the moderate market worked out for tough nerd Snyder.

9:31pm: Thanks to a big margin in the Lower Peninsula, Jason Allen’s pulling into the lead in MI-01, now 39-38 over Dan Benishek.

9:30pm: As more votes pour in, things are tightening up in MI-13. Hansen Clarke still leads Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, but with about 10% in, it’s still a pretty big Clarke lead: 50-32. At least she’s over the Bob Inglis line for worst incumbent primary performance.

9:28pm: The most drama in Missouri seems to be in the GOP field in MO-04, where social con Vicki Hartzler leads state Sen. Bill Stouffer 39-34.

9:27pm: What am I bid for a House seat? With about 10% reporting, auctioneer Billy Long is cruising in MO-07, with 40%. State Sen. Gary Nodler’s stronghold of Newton Co. hasn’t reported yet though (he’s only at 8, with J. Goodman at 22).

9:25pm: Show Me the money! The AP has called the GOP Senate primary in Missouri, no surprise, for Roy Blunt. He’s beating Chuck Purgason 72-13 in one of the cycle’s bigger cases of teabagger fail.

9:23pm: Wow, major momentum shift in MI-02 again. Now teabagger Bill Cooper’s in 4th! Huizenga and Kuipers share the lead at 26, with about 15% in.

9:21pm: Only 5% in in KS-01, but in the R primary there, birther real estate agent Tracey Mann leads at 32, with CfG fave Tim Huelskamp at 27 and ‘moderate’ Jim Barnett at 20. No runoffs in Kansas.

9:20pm: I think most people had forgotten that Lynn Jenkins in KS-02 was getting a semi-legit teabagger challenge (state Sen. Dennis Pyle). She’s winning, but with an underwhelming 60-40 margin with about 3% in.

9:19pm: Hmm, things much tighter suddenly in MI-01 GOP primary. Benishek leads Allen 40-38.

9:18pm: Switching over to Kansas, Jerry Moran is in the lead, 52-40. Moran leads 73-22 in KS-01, while Todd Tiahrt leads 55-38 in KS-04.

9:16pm: In MI-09, Rocky Raczkowski is way in the lead in the GOP primary: 50-28 over Paul Welday, Joe Knollenberg’s former CoS.

9:15pm: And in MI-07, the guy who was teabagging before it was called teabagging, Tim Walberg, looks like he’ll be back for revenge. He’s beating establishment choice Brian Rooney 55-34.

9:13pm: In MI-03: state Rep. (and teabagger) Justin Amash is running away with it at 47%, with Hardiman at 17 and Heacock at 19.

9:12pm: Check out MI-02: teabagging businessman Bill Cooper’s in the lead at 30 with nearly 10% in, with those three Dutch-named guys all clumped in the low 20s.

9:08pm: It’s early, but get a load of netroots fave Sean Tevis in KS-02 — the dude is in third place against a pair of Some Dudes!

9:06pm: Hoekstra’s leading 47-27 in his home CD, but in 3rd elsewhere.

9:04pm: In MI-06, Fred Upton has nosed down to 55% against wingnut’s wingnut Jack Hoogendyk.

9:01pm: Back in Michigan, Virg Bernero has shot up to a 59-41 lead over Andy Dillon. For the Republicans, Rick Snyder is ahead of Pete “The Incredible Hoek” Hoekstra by 35-28. Just over 7% of precincts reporting.

8:57pm: Though this was a foregone conclusion, the Associated Press has called the Dem Senate nomination in Missouri for Robin Carnahan.

8:55pm: Just a handful of votes in in MI-13, but Hansen Clarke is leading Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick by 43-17 so far.

8:51pm: Some more GOP House race updates: In MI-01, Benishek leads Allen by 45-30; in MI-02, Kuipers leads Riemersma by 26-23 (with Huizenga very close behind); in MI-07, Walberg leads Rooney by 55-34.

8:49pm: Wow, check out MI-06 — Republican incumbent Fred Upton is only at 55.5% against teabagging ex-state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk. 20% of precincts are reporting.

8:43pm: A good sign for Dan Benishek in MI-01 (R): he’s leading 53-19 in the UP, but also edging out Jason Allen 35-34 in the LP.

8:40pm: Regional divisions are becoming pretty evident in a few races. In MI-Gov (R), Peter Hoekstra’s scoring 61% in his home district while only 27% elsewhere. In KS-Sen (R), Jerry Moran’s getting 73% in his home district to Tiahrt’s 22%; he’s also leading 59-34 in the rest of the state. Nothing in Tiahrt’s home district’s reported though.

8:39pm: The AP’s called KS-Gov (R) for Sam Brownback.

8:24pm: House races for the GOP: In MI-07, Walberg’s out to an early lead with 66%; in MI-01, with two UP precincts in, Dan Benishek’s up 37-26 over Jason Allen. In Missouri, Vicki Hartzler is up 36-28 over Bill Stouffer in MO-04.

8:22pm: A few results in Michigan, where on the Dem side, Andy Dillon has a 3% advantage over Virg Bernero. On the GOP side, Peter Hoekstra’s out to an early lead with 35%, with Mike Cox behind at 28% and Rick Snyder at 23.

8:18pm: A surprising result in MO-08 (R) so far, with incumbent Jo Ann Emerson earning only 60%.

8:12pm: Our first results in for the night, a lonely precinct in Missouri where Roy Blunt has 55% to Chuck Purgason’s 37% in the GOP Senate primary.

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Let’s do this thing.

Results:

     Kansas: Associated Press | Politico

     Michigan: Associated Press | Politico | MI DoS

     Missouri: Associated Press | Politico | MO SoS

After a slow few weeks in late June and July, August promises to be quite exciting, primary-wise!

Here are some races to watch in August:

8/3:

MO-Sen (R) – Blunt v. teabagger

MO-04 (R) – Free-for-all

MO-07 (R) – open seat

Proposition C – It’s about NULLIFICATION!

KS-Sen (R) – Moran/Tiahrt

KS-01, 04 (R) – open seats

KS-03 (R) – Yoder v. Lightner

KS-04 (D) – will Raj Goyle get VicRawl’d?

MI-Gov (D), (R)

MI-01, 02, 03 (R) – open seats

MI-07 (R) – Rooney/Walberg

MI-09 (R) – Rocky v. Welday

MI-12 (D)

MI-13 (D) – Kilpatrick weak

8/5: (hey, two primaries in one week!)

TN-Gov (R) – open seat

TN-03 (R) – Wamp’s open seat

TN-04 (R) – clusterfuck

TN-06 (R) – open seat

TN-08 (R) – Kirkland v. Flinn

TN-09 (D) – impending Willie Herenton fail

8/10:

CT-Gov (D) and (R) – Lamont/Malloy and Fedele/Foley

CT-Sen (R) – ghost of Rob Simmons?

CT-02, 04, 05 (R)

CO-Gov (R) – McInnis and Maes double fail

CO-Sen (D) – Bennet v. Romanoff

CO-Sen (R) – the devil wears prada?

CO-03, 07 (R)

GA-Gov (R) – Palin Handel v. Newt Deal

GA-07, 12 (R) – more runoffs

GA-09 (R) – Graves v. Hawkins round 3

MN-Gov (D) – Dayton v. Kelliher

8/17:

WA-Sen

WA-03

WY-Gov (D), (R)

8/24:

AZ-Sen (D), (R)

AZ-03 (R) – Shadegg’s open seat

AZ-01, 05, 08 (R)

VT-Gov (D)

FL-Gov (R) – (yes!!!!!!)

FL-Sen (D) – Meek v. Greene

FL-12, 25 (R) – open seats

FL-02, 08, 22, 24 (R)

FL-02 (D) – challenge to a Blue Dog from the left, v4.1

FL-17 (D) – Meek’s open seat

AK-Gov (R) – Parnell and the ghost of Palin?

AK-Sen (R) – Murkowski v. Palin proxy

8/28:

LA-Sen (R) – Vitter v. Traylor

LA-02 (D) – Lafonta v. Richmond

LA-03 (R)

WV-Sen (D), (R) – Byrd special primary

OK, first off, this is a very strange situation, so please bear with me. More importantly, please rec this diary up; we need as much exposure as possible, as quickly as possible.

Michigan’s 8th District has been “represented” (if you can call it that) by a Republican named Mike Rogers since 2000, when he won a squeaker of a race by just 111 votes to fill the U.S. House seat vacated by Debbie Stabenow when she was elected to the U.S. Senate.

You might be thinking that, given the closeness of the race, that MI-08 should be a district that the Dems could take back if they put their minds to it. Unfortunately, up until now, that hasn’t happened. He won 68/31 in 2002, 61/37 in 2004, 55/43 in 2006 and 56/40 in 2008.

The closest anyone has gotten to him was Jim Marcinkowski in 2006, a former CIA agent and Naval Operations Specialist–and that was in an extremely Dem-friendly year (Marcinkowski, a former Republican, actually ran for Congress mostly because he was furious about the outing of Valerie Plame, who was a friend of his from his CIA days).

Now, don’t get me wrong–Rogers isn’t a star in the GOP. As far as I can tell, he’s very good at raising money and getting re-elected, and not much else. Once in a while, he’ll pop his head up on TV long enough to say something incredibly stupid, like blaming Pres. Obama for McChrystal’s insults in Rolling Stone. Other than that, he’s kind of a cypher, a rubber stamp for the GOP, but boy is he good at keeping his seat.

OK, so, Rogers is sitting pretty, right? He has a million bucks in the bank, it’s a GOP-leaning year, and the district seems to have been pretty much ceded by the national Dems.

This, of course, is where Howard Dean’s 50-State Strategy kicks in, right? DON’T CEDE ANY DISTRICT TO THE REPUBLICANS; run a candidate everywhere, no matter how long the odds. At worst, you’ll at least make sure to get the Democratic message out and force the GOP incumbent to stick around their district and spend a few bucks out of their war chest. At best, the incumbent will be caught with their pants down (either figuratively or, more likely, literally), and voila, you pick up the seat after all!

Cut to the 2010 campaign.

Earlier this year, a young guy named Kande Ngalamulume (he was born in Zaire, now known as the Congo) decided to take a shot. No political experience, he’d lived outside of Michigan since 2002. His biggest claim to fame was having been a track star at Michigan State. However, he seemed like a good enough guy, and rightly got a lot of kudos for stepping up to the plate this year. He gave up his job in Pennsylvania to move back home.

I met him in February, and in March he hired me to take over the maintenance of his campaign website (someone else had set it up, but wasn’t able to do the day-to-day updates). I can’t afford to do campaign sites pro bono, but recognized the shoestring nature of his campaign and gave a hefty discount for my time. No one else seemed interested, so he was the only one to file, and had the Democratic nomination to himself; his name will be the only on on the ballot on the August 3rd primary.

Unfortunately, after finding a lack of financial support (he had only raised a total of around $25,000 or so, I believe), he dropped out of the race on June 2–and not only did so in a very public manner (via email press release), but did so several weeks after the filing deadline…and then left the state.

Since he waited until after the filing deadline to drop out, and was the only one to file, his name will remain on the August 3rd ballot anyway, unless either dies or registers to vote in a different state–and so far, he hasn’t filed elsewhere. If he does, then the 8th District Dems can legally challenge his name being on the ballot and could scramble to get someone else to replace him, but otherwise, they’re in a bind. Rogers now has a completely uncontested race, and is free to roam around the state, raising money for whoever the GOP has running against Democratic freshmen Mark Schauer (MI-07) and Gary Peters (MI-09), or turning over a chunk of his million-dollar war chest to the RNC, or whatever he likes. A GOP seat is now 100% safe, 2 Democratic seats are further threatened, and the 8th District Dems are in a pickle.

However, there is one more way out of this pickle: If someone runs as a write-in candidate against Kande Ngalamulume in the Democratic primary and wins, the problem is resolved. Yes, they’d still face the longest of odds against Rogers in November, but at least they’d be doing the yeoman’s job of keeping Rogers distracted, preventing him from helping the GOP out too much, and saving some face for the local party.

NOTE: Edited to remove the unnecessary negativity about Mr. Ngalamulume; I shouldn’t have been speculating on his reasons for doing what he did, and they’re irrelevant to the current situation anyway.

Which brings me to the point of this diary:

Meet Lance Enderle.

Lance is a government school teacher (he was laid off last year; don’t get me started about the state budget cuts by the GOP-controlled Michigan State Senate). He also happens to be a pro-choice, progressive Democrat, who was very active in Democratic politics in the ’90’s up north (He worked for Bart Stupak for a number of years; say what you will about Stupak, but aside from his recent HCR/Abortion debacle, he’s been a pretty solid Dem on most of the other important issues). He got burnt out and got out of the political game 10 years ago…until a couple of weeks ago.

Lance decided that he was so pissed off about the thought of Mike Rogers getting a free ride that he’s going to attempt the impossible improbable: He filed to run for U.S. Congress as a write-in Democrat.

Now, his previous political involvement is important for a couple of reasons: First, it means he has some idea of how to run a campaign; and secondly, it means that, unlike Kande Ngalamulume, he understands just how slim his chances are. His primary goal (pun intended) is to at least win the nomination. While stopping there would normally be pretty meaningless, given the unique circumstances at hand, this would be huge.

The bad news, of course, is that not only does he have to get more votes than the only name actually on the ballot on Aug. 3rd; not only does he have to hope that the voters of the district know how to spell his name; but he also only has 35 days to get the word out about it.

The good news (I hope) is that he has you…and me! Yep, after being burnt by one MI-08 Democratic Congressional Candidate, I’ve willingly signed on to help out another one, in the same race, even! I got in touch with Lance after hearing about him jumping into the ring and he’s brought me on board to handle HIS campaign website from top to bottom.

Now, I know what you’re saying: This guy doesn’t have a chance in hell. OK, probably, but if you’d told me on September 12, 2001 that the next President elected–with more votes than any other candidate in history, I might add–would be a black Democrat named Barack Hussein Obama, I’d have said you were nuts.

Alright, hyperbole and wishful thinking aside, Mike Rogers remains a total jackass. At the very least I think it’s worth a shot. Besides, look what happened to Mark Foley–a 12-year incumbent in a 65%+ Republican district. Then he gets caught sending porn messages to underage boys and voila! We have an extra Democrat in Congress! (Yeah, that guy turned out to be kind of a jerk as well, but you get my point; anything can happen in a political campaign, but if you don’t have someone running, you have no chance of picking up the pieces).

Here’s some articles/interviews about Lance:

Candidate against Rogers emerges

Post-Kande options open for local Dems

Teacher fills Dems’ void in House race

Radio interview with Lance on City Pulse Live (his segment starts appx. 15 min into show)

Radio Interview on A.M. Lansing (direct link to MP3)

So, with all of this in mind, I’d like to invite you to learn more about Lance, more about his campaign, and perhaps (of course) to pony up a few bucks for the underdog race of the year:

Lance Enderle for Congress (just launched)

Lance’s ActBlue Page (just launched)

Lance’s Facebook Page (this has been up for a couple of weeks now)

If you can’t donate money, please at least rec this up and spread the word. Thanks.

Full disclosure: While I’m working for far less than my normal rates, I am still being modestly paid. Mostly, however, I’m just pissed at the mess Kande caused and am trying to help salvage the situation.

Fellow Democrats,

My name is Scott Withers and I am a Democratic Primary Candidate for the U.S. Congress in Michigan’s 5th District. I am challenging incumbent Dale Kildee, someone whose public service I respect, but I believe is out of touch with the dire needs of the residents of Mid-Michigan.

I grew up in the small Tuscola County city of Vassar. My grandfathers, father, stepfather, sister and many uncles, aunts and cousins do or did work in the UAW plants throughout mid-Michigan. I received my dual-bachelors degree in International Relations and Broadcast Journalism at Syracuse University. While in school, I interned for CNN at the United Nations and in the London bureau. After graduation, I worked as a producer/writer and on-air youth correspondent for CNN in Atlanta. Following my time at CNN, I worked in local tv news in Tennessee and eventually moved into Public Relations where I worked on communications plans for large aviation, tourism and chemical companies. When the economy crashed last summer, I like millions of Americans was laid off. The last six months has been trying. I have lived through the fear of home foreclosure. I understand living pay check to pay check (often not making it). I can relate to the millions of good people who barely pay their bills with unemployment. I am not rich and don’t have the desire to be. I live with my partner of 10 years, Lane, and our 3 dogs. I am running for Michigan’s 5th Congressional District seat to help instill hope, create new jobs and solve the home foreclosure problem.

I am challenging Dale Kildee for 3 main reasons…

1) We need a leader who will fight to create jobs here in Michigan. We need someone who will do whatever it takes, who will make some noise and jump up and down to protect every job in Michigan, bring new ones in and make sure not a single job goes overseas. I will organize, I will rally, I will go door to door, I will lobby, I will do whatever it takes! I will spend every day soliciting large domestic and foreign corporations to expand/relocate job opportunities into the district, create new jobs or invest in existing companies so they can expand their staffs. My focus will not just be on automotive jobs, but on any and all opportunities including Green Energy, Film/Television, Tourism, Chemical, etc. I will LOBBY every federal government agency to open new or relocate existing offices/facilities in mid-Michigan, expand their current job opportunities in the area or pick our area for future projects. I will seek federal funding for our State to offset the cost of keeping prisoners in Michigan prisons instead of closing them down, releasing them early and laying off employees. We cannot afford to have a Congressman who just goes with the flow.

2) We need a Congressman who will champion progressive values. Congressman Dale Kildee is out of touch with the majority of Democrats in the 5th District. He is pro-life, opposes marriage equality, supports funding the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and does not support a single-payer healthcare system. We need an aggressive Congressman representing the 5th District and I believe I am that individual. Protecting a woman’s right to choose is one of the most important human rights issues facing women today. Dale Kildee has consistently gone out of his way to oppose protecting that right.

3) The 5th District Congressional seat belongs to the people of the 5th District. Dale Kildee has been a life member of Congress – holding the seat for 34 years, since the 1970’s. This seat belongs to the people of the district and no member should be in office for 34 years. He has been in political office for the past 46 years! I support term-limits for every member of Congress. I will self-limit myself to four consecutive terms in the U.S. House. We need to stop the system of creating career politicians and have a system that allows citizens to serve in public office and then return back to private life.

These are the facts:

– Even though Mid-Michigan’s unemployment rates are among the highest in the nation, Dale Kildee voted to give himself and his colleagues a pay raise (June 2009)

– Dale Kildee introduced just 13 bills last year, none of which dealt with job creation

– Dale Kildee received a 0% rating by NARAL. (December 2003)

– Dale Kildee voted NO on allowing human embryonic stem cell research. (May 2005)

– Dale Kildee received a 53% rating by the ACLU, indicating a mixed civil rights record (December 2002)

– Dale Kildee voted NO on withdrawing from the World Trade Organization, the WTO, (June 2000), which has sent thousands of jobs overseas.

– Dale Kildee voted NO on tax cuts to small businesses (March 2000)

– Dale Kildee opposes marriage equality (January 2008)

– In the last cycle, Dale Kildee received over $338,545 in PAC and special interest money, a strong majority of this total funds raised.

I believe it is time for a change and I believe I will be that progressive voice who fights to bring new jobs to the 5th District.

I will run an aggressive campaign on the issues and provide a clear contrast between myself and Mr. Kildee. Every pro-jobs, pro-choice, pro-equality Democrat will have a real choice in this election.

I hope to earn your trust and your support during this campaign.

Sincerely,

Scott Withers

Democratic Candidate for U.S. Congress

p.s. please sign up to follow our campaign at http://www.withers2010.com

No surprise given the chatter, but the GR Press has coverage of the official announcement this morning:

Eleven months from the 2nd district GOP congressional primary, the race is shaping up as a battle of the insiders vs. the outsider with a familiar name.

Former NFL star Jay Riemersma kicks off his formal campaign today with a speech in Holland. He vows a new brand of politics for the conservative district that U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, R-Holland, has held since 1993. Hoekstra is running for governor.

“The last thing we need right now is legislative experience,” said Riemersma, 36. “What we need is leadership, strong conservative leadership.”

Read the whole story here:

http://www.mlive.com/news/gran…

The article is pretty positive towards Riemersma, allowing him to polish quotes bashing the other official GOP candidate Bill Huizenga (State Senator Wayne Kuipers is also expected to run). Riemersma raised $154,244 in the 2nd quarter filing report, of which $100,000 was his own money, compared to $76,201 for Huizenga. Riemersma touts his conservative creed by noting his connections to Focus on the Family, something which might appeal to the hard-core right in the 2nd District.

I’m still waiting on whether Kuipers runs; if he does, that makes this race a Ottawa County battle (three candidates) and provides an opening for a candidate from another portion of the district. Also, the 3rd quarter filing statement (due September 30) will also show how the two declared candidates are faring with raising funds for a sure to be expensive primary.

On the heels of my last Michigan related diary, which received some pretty suprising attention from the DLCC, I’ve decided to overview the potentially competitive State House Races going forward into 2010.  By my count, about a third (34 out of 110) of the State House seats will be open in 2010, a far smaller percentage than in the State Senate, where at least 30 of 38 seats will be open.  Although Democrats stand to gain several seats in the Senate, the House is not such a rosy picture.  The competitive nature of the open seats means that there will be a lot of turnovers in the next election, but Democrats will at best only achieve a net gain of 1-2 seats, While the most likely scenario is a no net change to Republicans gaining 1-2.  In a bad year Democrats could lose 5-6 seats, but I don’t envision the Republicans gaining the 13 seats needed to take back control of the body.  Democrats control the House by a 67-43 margin, after two successive cycles of huge gains (+6 in 2006 and +9 in 2008).  You can view my Senate overview here http://www.swingstateproject.c…

Because most of the districts will be uncompetitive, I’m only listing ones that I consider to be “Lean” or “Tossup” districts.  I will include, as in my Senate Diary, a list of announced and potential candidates and 2008 Presidential results.

District 30– Tory Rocca (R) OPEN Northern Sterling Heights (Macomb County)

This district has been represented by the Rocca family consistently for the past 26 years.  First the Father, Sal, from 1983 to 1994.  Then the mother, Sue, from 1994 to 2000, then Sal again from 2000 to 2004, and finally, the son, Tory from 2004 to present.  This district has trended democratic since the beginning of the Rocca reign, and Tory is term limited.  According to Sal’s biography, he has another son, Michael, but it is unclear whether he lives in the 30th District or not.  The Democratic bench in this district is strong.  Macomb County Commissioner Ken Lampar (D), who was elected in 2008, has already announced his candidacy and is considered a strong contender.  23 year old Commissioner Dave Flynn (D) is also a potential candidate.  The only Republican commissioner who represents a portion of this district is Matriarch Sue Rocca, who is barred by term limits of running for her old seat.  Unless a Rocca steps up, I like Democrats chances here.  Still this is a historically Republican district.

Presidential Results- 50.9 – 46.4 Obama

Announced Candidates- Ken Lampar (D) Current Macomb County Commissioner

Potential Candidates- Dave Flynn (D) Current Macomb County Commissioner

Rating- Tossup

District 57– Dudley Spade (D) OPEN Most of Lenawee County

Rep. Dudley Spade is term limited in 2010, and his district will be home to one of the biggest and most heavily contested races in the state.  The county is competitive but normally leans slightly Republican nationally, while Democrats usually do well here locally.  Prior to Dudley Spade, this seat was represented by his brother, Doug Spade from 1998-2004.  If another Spade steps up, our chances for holding this seat improve. (Maybe actor David Spade should move here.)  Both sides have deep benches here, but only Harvey Schmidt has announced his candidacy yet.  Schmidt, a Democrat, is the mayor of Tecumseh, the 2nd largest city in the district.  Former State Senator and brief 2008 candidate for Congress Jim Berryman (D) is considered a possible candidate, and has the name recognition to win.  There is a long list of Republican County and City Commissioners who could make this district competitives, as well.

Presidential Results- 51.4 – 46.4 Obama

Announced Candidates- Wayne Schmidt (D) Mayor of Tecumseh

Potential Candidates- Larry Richardson (D) Madison Township Supervisor

Karol Bolton (D) Lenawee County Commissioner

Michael Osborne (D) Adrian City Commissioner

Jim Berryman (D) Former State Senator

James Van Doren (R) Lenawee County Commissioner; Chairman

John Tuckerman (R) Lenawee County Commissioner

David Simpson (R) Lenawee County Commissioner

Rob Hall (R) Lenawee County Commissioner

Rating- Tossup

District 70– Mike Huckleberry (D) Montcalm County, Part of Ionia County

The 70th District was one of the closest districts between Obama and McCain, with Pres. Obama only narrowly prevailing by 313 votes.  Yet the same year, Democrat Mike Huckleberry, an entrepreneur and former Congressional candidate, Upset the favorite, Republican Judge Tom Ginster, by a wide 54-46 margin.  Republicans will contend that Huckleberry’s election was a fluke in such a Republican district, and will surely run a strong candidate against him.  Still, Incumbents almost never lose in the Michigan legislature.  In fact, of the Democrats 15 pickups in the last 2 cylces, only one was due to the loss of an incumbent.  This is not because Michigan has any particularly strong affinity for its incumbents, it’s just that with so many open seats, the state parties rarely spend money against incumbents.  Only businessman Ed Sternisha has yet announced his candidacy, and Republicans will likely need someone stronger than him to defeat Huckleberry.

Presidential Results- 49.5 – 49.4 Obama

Announced Candidates- Ed Sternisha (R)

Potential Candidates- Ron Retzloff (R) Montcalm County Commissioner

Pat Carr (R) Montcalm County Commissioner

Amanda Powell (R) Ionia County Commissioner

Rating- Leans Democrat

District 71– Rick Jones (R) OPEN Most of Eaton County

Between 2004 and 2008, Eaton County went from being a slightly Republican leaning swing county, to a slightly Democrat leaning swing county.  Eaton voted for Obama, and Mark Schauer, and at the same time gave Democrats control of its County Commission.  Democrats control 9 commission seats and Republicans control 6.  Almost any of these commissioners would make solid candidates for State House.  Republicans Deb Shaughnessy, the mayor of Charlotte, and Cheryl Krapf-Haddock, Executive Director of the Child Abuse Prevention Council have both announced their candidacies, with more Republicans likely to enter.  Democrat Robert Robinson has announced his candidacy as well.  It looks like both sides will have competitive primaries.  At this point, I can’t pick a favorite, and it could stay that way until election day.

Presidential Results- 53.5 – 44.8 Obama

Announced Candidates- Deb Shaughnessy (R) Charlotte Mayor

Cheryl Krapf-Haddock (R)

Robert Robinson (D)

Potential Candidates- Joe Brehler (D) Eaton County Commissioner

Glenn Freeman (D) Eaton County Commissioner

Art Luna (D) Eaton County Commissioner

Leo Farhat (R) Eaton County Commissioner

John Forell (R) Eaton County Commissioner

Rating- Tossup

District 79– John Proos (R) OPEN Northern half of Berrien County

Like much of South-Western Michigan, Berrien County swung strongly Democratic in 2008.  In fact, Barack Obama was the first Democrat to win the County since 1964! Much of this is attributed to high African-American turnout in Benton Harbor, but it was perhaps equally because of moderate Republicans abandoning the Republican Party.  The question in 2010 is whether those moderates will return to the GOP fold or not.  If they do, Republicans will keep this seat in a walk, but if the moderates are still dissatisfied, this seat could be competitive.  Lower Black turnout makes this one tougher, but not impossible, for Democrats.  No candidates have announced yet, and Republicans have a deeper bench here than Democrats, so I’m going to call them the favorites.

Presidential Results- 53.0 – 45.8 Obama

Announced Candidates-

Potential Candidates- Jim Hahn (D) Chairman of Berrien County Democrats

John Hinkleman (R) Berrien County Commissioner

Al Pscholka (R) Aide to Congressman Fred Upton

Rating: Leans Republican

District 83– John Espinosa (D) OPEN Sanilac County, Port Huron (St. Clair County)

Democrat John Espinosa is vacating his seat to run for State Senate (He’s term limited anyway).  Republicans drew this seat in their favor, but Moderate Dem Espinosa has been able to consistently win re-election here easily.  Now that he’s vacating it, it becomes a good opportunity for Republicans.  Democrat Port Huron City Councilman Alan Lewandowski is apparently interested, but I think Democrats would have more luck with a candidate from Sanilac County, where Espinosa is from.  Unfortunately, Republicans control every single seat on the Sanilac County Commission.  An city or township official from Sanilac County or an official from Port Huron could make this seat competitive, but right now I feel like this is the Republicans’ most likely pickup next year.

Presidential Results- 51.8 – 46.1 Obama

Announced Candidates-

Potential Candidates- Alan Lewandowski (D) Port Huron City Councilman

Jamie Daws (R) Sanilac County Commissioner

Gary Russell (R) Sanilac County Commissioner

Rating- Leans Republican

District 85– Richard Ball (R) OPEN Shiawassee County, Part of Clinton County

This is another district that Republicans gerrymandered for themselves by pairing swingish Shiawassee County with portions of the normally Republican Clinton County.  Yet this area, just north of Lansing, experienced one of the biggest swings in the 2008 elections.  Barack Obama not only won the district, but suprisingly won Clinton County as a whole. Both sides have relatively good benches here, but the Democratic nominee with have to get past the historically Republican nature of Clinton County to win here.  Three Republicans have announced so far, but only Owosso Mayor Pro-Tem Jim Stechschulte seems like a viable candidate.  Republican Owosso Mayor Mike Bruff would be an even better candidate.  No Democrat has yet announced but there are several Shiawassee County Commissioners who could win this district.

Presidential Results- 53.9 – 44.2 Obama

Announced Candidates- Jim Stechschulte (R) Owosso Mayor Pro-Tem

David Lazar (R)

Harold Kuisel (R)

Potential Candidates- Judy Ford (D) 2008 Candidate

Dan Stewart (D) Shiawassee County Commissioner

Jaime Pavlica (D) Shiawassee County Commissioner

Mike Bruff (R) Owosso Mayor

Rating- Tossup

District 91– Mary Valentine (D) OPEN Suburban Muskegon County, Part of Ottawa County

Although she is not term-limited, talented Democrat Mary Valentine is vacating her house seat to run for the State Senate.  This seat was held for years by Republicans until Valentine came along in 2006 and pummeled incumbent Republican David Farhat 54-46.  She was easily re-elected in 2008 over highly touted Republican recruit Holly Hughes, while Barack Obama won the district very comfortably.  Democrats hold most of the County Commissioners seats in this district, and State Treasurer Tony Moulatsiotis lives in Norton Shores and would make a strong candidate.  Still, few Democrats can match Valentine’s charisma and skillful campaigning.  Republican Ken Punter is running.  Juggernaut fundraiser and 2006 candidate may also run.  

Presidential Results- 56.2 – 42.6 Obama

Announced Candidates- Ken Punter (R)

Potential Candidates- Tony Moulatsiotis (D) Muskegon County Treasurer

Kenneth Mahoney (D) Muskegon County Commissioner; Chairman

James Derezinski (D) Muskegon County Commissioner

Holly Hughes (R) 2008 Candidate

Rating- Tossup

97th District– Tim Moore (R) OPEN Clare, Gladwin, Arenac, northern Bay Counties

In 2004, Republican Tim Moore defeated one-term Democratic State Rep. Jennifer Elkins by a narrow margin.  Since then he’s faced only token opposition, despite the swingishness of his district and its historic Democratic nature (it’s also the birth place of Sen. Debbie Stabenow).  President Obama won every County in this district, and the Republican bench here isn’t great.  For the Democrats, Fmr. Rep. Elkins want to try to regain her seat.  Freeman Township supervisor Mark Lightfoot (D) has already announced his candidacy, but several other local officeholders may join him.  Two Republicans have announced their candidacy, Kim Emmons and Joel Johnson.  Neither has held political office or seems viable against a strong Dem nominee.  radio personality Bobby Randall has been talked about for the Republican primary.

Presidential Results- 51.4 – 46.5 Obama

Announced Candidates- Mark Lightfoot (D) Freeman Township supervisor

Kim Emmons (R) Activist

Joel Johnson (R)

Potential Candidates- Jennifer Elkins (D) Former State Representative

Mike Shea (D) Gladwin County Sherrif

Josh Reid (D) Gladwin County Commissioner

Bobby Randall (R) Radio Personality

Rating- Tossup

District 99– Bill Caul (R) OPEN Isabella County, part of Midland County

The 99th is another district customized by Republicans.  And once again, the district has moved significantly to the left.  The main anchor of the district is Isabella County, a former swing district that gave president Obama huge margin in 2008.  The rest of the district is rural Republican townships in Midland County.  High Native American populations and the fact that Mount Pleasant is home to Central Michigan University makes this district one of the best pickup opportunities for Democrats.  Democrats also recruited the woman who is probably their strongest candidate, well known attorney and Chair of the Isabella County Democrats Toni Sessoms.  Sessoms is also independently wealthy and if elected she would become the first openly lesbian State Representative.  Former Republican County Commissioner and unsuccessful 2008 candidate for an at-large commissioner seat Christine Alwood is running.  Alwood is not nearly as strong as Republican Mount Pleasant mayor Jim Holton, but Holton hasn’t shown any inclination towards running yet.  I like Sessoms chances against Alwood, but Holton would be more of an uphill climb.

Presidential Results- 54.1 – 43.9 Obama

Announced Candidates- Toni Sessoms (D) Isabella County Dems Chair

Christine Alwood (R) Former Isabella County Commissioner

Potential Candidates- Jim Holton (R) Mount Pleasant Mayor

Rating- Tossup

District 103– Joel Sheltrown (D) OPEN Iosco, Ogemaw, Roscommon, and Missaukee Counties

Another district that’s all in the family.  Before Joel Sheltrown, this district was represented by his brother, Dale.  And who’s the most likely Democratic candidate in 2010? Van Sheltrown, the third brother and current Ogemaw County Road Commissioner.  The Sheltrown name is popular here, but there’s no guarantee that Van will have the primary to himself.  And this district is Republican in nature (McCain won it).  Republicans have a somewhat deep bench here, but so far only Phil Bendily has announced his candidacy.  Against Bendily, the Democrat should be favored, but against a stronger candidate like Missaukee County Sheriff Jim Bosscher, the result is less certain.

Presidential Results- 49.3 – 48.8 McCain

Announced Candidates- Phil Bendily (R)

Potential Candidates- Van Sheltrown (D) Ogemaw County Road Commission

Howie Hanft (D) Ogemaw County Sheriff

Marc Milburn (R) Roscommon County Commissioner

Jim Bosscher (R) Missauke County Sheriff

Rating- Tossup

District 105– Kevin Elsenheimer (R) OPEN Charlevoix, Otsego, and part of Cheboygan Counties

Kevin Elsenheimer, who retired in 2008 and then un-retired, is now term limited for real.  If the short lived primary from last year is any indication, the Republican primary will be crowded and may include, as it did last year and in 2004, John Ramsey, yes the John Ramsey.  Last year Cheboygan County Commissioner Connie Saltonstall ran a tough campaign against Elsenheimer, and she may run again.  If the crowded Republican primary yields a damaged or unelectable candidate like Ramsey, Saltonstall has a good shot.  But if not, this district will probably go with the Republican.  MSU student and Controversial figure Dennis Lennox, who’s currently being sued for Defamation by Ingham County Commissioner Mark Grebner.  He currently serves as Cheboygan County Drain Commissioner, even though he thinks his job should be eliminated to save money.  A Saltonstall-Lennox race would be competitive, as well, in my opinion.

Presidential Results- 52.1 – 46.1 McCain

Announced Candidates- Dennis Lennox (R) Cheboygan County Drain Commissioner

Ken Glasser (R) Otsego County Commissioner

Potential Candidates- Connie Saltonstall (D) former Cheboygan county Commissioner

Tim Boyko (R) Former County Commissioner (R)

Greg MacMaster (R)

John Ramsey (R) 2008 Candidate (dropped out) and 2004 Candidate

Rating- Leans Republican

District 106– Andy Neumann (D) OPEN Alcona, Alpena, Presque Isle, Crawford, Montmorency, and Oscoda Counties

Andy Neumann, who was state Rep from 1998-2002 and who ran for his seat again last year, is term limited.  The district leans Republican nationally, but it’s anchored by Democratic bastion Alpena and leans Democrat statewide.  Neumann won comfortably in 2008 over Republican Pete Pettalia.  Democrats have several Alpena elected officials who could do well here, although Republicans control the Alpena County Commission.  No Democrats or Republicans have yet announced their candidacies yet, but both have good benches.  

Presidential Results- 49.8 – 48.1 McCain

Announced Candidates-

Potential Candidates- Mark Hall (D) Alpena County Commissioner

Casey Viegelahn (D) 2008 Primary Candidate

Peter Pettalia (R) 2008 Candidate

Mike Nunneley (R) Alpena City Councilman

Rating- Tossup

District 107– Gary McDowell (D) OPEN Chippewa, Mackinac, Emmet, and part of Cheboygan Counties

Former UPS delivery man and conservative Dem Gary McDowell is term limited.  The two westernmost Counties in the Upper Peninsula, Chippewa and Mackinac, are the only two that aren’t comfortably Democratic on the local and statewide level.  President Obama nearly won both, but downstate Emmet County is much more Republican.  The Republican bench is a bit stronger than the Democratic bench.  Former Chippewa County Prosecutor Patrick Shannon would probably be the strongest Democratic candidate.  St. Ignace Mayor Paul Grondin would make a strong Republican candidate as well.  Who’s favored here depends entirely on who each side nominates.  So far only Republican Frank Foster has filed to run here.

Presidential Results- 50.6 – 47.7 McCain

Announced Candidates- Frank Foster (R)

Potential Candidates- Patrick Shannon (D) former Chippewa County Prosecutor

Keith Massaway (D) Sault Indian Tribe leader

Paul Grondin (R) St. Ignace Mayor

Michael Patrick (R) Mackinac County Commissioner

Jim Moore (R) Chippewa County Commissioner

Rating- Tossup

Special thanks to Peter Bratt for compiling This spreadsheet compiling all announced candidates.  Also thanks to whomever created this website.

We all know how important it is that Democrats re-capture the Michigan State Senate next year.  If they take the Senate and hold the Governorship, they will have complete control over the redistricting process. Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics, says “Democrats look poised to pick up at least 3 seats” next year.  To take control, we only need to win 4 Republican seats.  Democrats have not controlled the State Senate since 1982.  Below I have all 38 Senate seats listed, with the name of its Senator, the party, whether or not it will be OPEN next year, and a brief description of the district.  I also give a brief preliminary paragraph handicapping the race.  

Then I give the 2008 Presidential Result in that District. Remember that the 2008 resutl is sort of a “High Water Mark” here.  Note that I didn’t calculate the Presidential Vote for the 5 Detroit districts because this would require going precinct by precinct which would have taken days.  They are all at least 80% Obama, many are more than 90% Obama.

I then included all of the announced candidates for the races, with links to their websites or sources.  I then list potential candidates for each race, usually State Representatives or other local officeholders.  Finally, I offer a Charlie Cook style rating: Safe, Likely, Leans or Tossup.  The Senator’s name links to their website, where you can find a map of his or her district.

I realize that this is a lot of text, so for those who don’t want to read the entire thing, I added all my ratings seperately at the bottom of the diary.

Updated to include the announced Candidacies of Fmr. Rep. John Stewart (D) in the 7th (h/t Sean Fitzpatrick) and Rep. Mary Valentine (D) in the 34th.

District 1– Hansen Clarke (D) OPEN Easten Detroit; Downtown

Hansen Clarke (AKA “The man who kicked Ann Coulter’s Ass”) is term limited next year.  It’s a shame, because Clark has been one of my favorite Senators, and even one of my favorite politicians.  He recently donated his hair to a nine year old burn victim http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/dp… and is a tireless advocate for under-represented and underpriveledged Americans.  

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Coleman Young II (D), State Rep. (2006- ) 2009 Candidate for Detroit Mayor

Fred Durhal, Jr. (D)  State Rep. (2002-2003, 2008-  )

Betty Cook Scott (D) State Rep. (2004-   )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 2 Martha G. Scott (D) OPEN North Detroit, Hamtrack, Grosse Cities.  

Martha Scott, who was one of Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick’s 2008 primary challengers, is term limited.

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

LaMar Lemmons (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Bill McConico (D) State Rep. (2000-2006), 2006 Candidate

Virgil Smith (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Bert Johnson (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 3 Irma Clark-Coleman (D) OPEN Central Detroit, Dearborn

This district includes Dearborn, so there is the potential for this district to elect an Arab-American to the Senate.

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Morris Hood, Jr. State Rep. (2002-2008)

Keith Williams (D) Wayne County Commission (2003-  )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 4 Buzz Thomas (D) OPEN North and Central Detroit

Another very good legislator who is term limited this year, although I’m keeping my fingers crossed that John Conyers will retire so that Thomas can replace him in Congress.

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

George Cushingberry (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Virgil Smith (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Keith Williams (D) Wayne County Commission (2003-  )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 5 Tupac Hunter (D) West Detroit, Dearborn Heights, Inkster

Hunter will be fine in this majority black district, however term limited State Rep. Gabe Leland may challenge Hunter.  Leland’s father, Burt, represented this district prior to Hunter for decades.  

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 6 Glenn Anderson (D) Livonia, Westland, Redford, Garden City

Senator Anderson won this historically Republican suburban Wayne County district in 2006, defeating Republican Sen. Laura Toy.  He is favored to win re election, but former Rep. John Pastor (R) of Livonia could make it competitive.

Presidential Results: 57.8 – 40.4 Obama

Rating: Likely Democrat

District 7 Bruce Patterson (R) OPEN Canton, Northville, Plymouth, Trenton

Republican Pruce Patterson barely held on in 2006 against Democrat Mark Slavens in 2006 in this L-shaped suburban Wayne County district.  Democrats now hold every State House District that is wholly or partially in this district.  Mark Slaven’s wife Dian won the last remaining Republican held district last year, and Obama won this district comfortably.  This district will be one of the most competitive and expensive districts in the state.  If Democrats want to retake the Senate, this is a district that they almost have to win.  Former Republican-turned Democrat State Representative John Stewart, who served was an R while serving in the State House from 2000-2006 and who switched parties in 2007, is running.  The fact that he represented a 3rd of this district, and was a Republican, makes him a top tier candidate. h/t Sean Fitzpatrick

Presidential Results: 54.7 – 43.7 Obama

Announced Candidates:

John Stewart (D) Former Republican State Rep. (2000-2006) bin/cfr/com_det.cgi?com_id=514363

Potential Candidates:

Marc Corriveau (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Kathleen Law (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Mark Slavens (D) 2006 Candidate

Phillip LaJoy (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Tossup

District 8 Ray Basham (D) OPEN

Romulus, Taylor, Lincoln Park, Allen Park, Riverview, Wyandotte

The Democrat will be strongly favored in this suburban Wayne County district that is located south of Detroit.

Presidential Results: 64.6 – 33.4 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Hoon Yung-Hopgood (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Barbarah Farrah (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Ed Clemente (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Rating: Safe Dem

District 9 Dennis Olshove (D) OPEN  Warren, Eastpointe, Fraser, St. Clair Shores

This district is Democratic but mostly socially conservative one located in southern Macomb County.  It is, along with the 10th District, the home of the “Reagan Democrats,” who also voted strongly for Obama.  The Democrat is favored here.

Presidential Results: 58.3 – 39.6 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates: Lisa Wojno (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Frank Accavitti (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Jack Brandenburg (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Likely Dem

District 10 Mickey Switalksi (D) OPEN

Sterling Heights, Utica, Roseville, Clinton, Mount Clemens

Although slightly less Democratic than the 9th, this district still favors Democrats. And like the 9th, a conservative Democrat should have no problem winning this district.  Switalski announced earlier this year that he would challenge Rep. Sandy Levin in the 12th Congressional district.

Presidential Results: 55.5 – 42.7 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Steve Bieda (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Fred Miller (D) State Rep. (2004-   )

Tory Rocca (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Rating: Leans Democrat

District 11 Alan Sanborn (R) OPEN

Northern Macomb County

This district is very conservative, but if nutjob crazy Leon Drolet gets the Republican nomination, a Democrat would have a chance here. Still, the Republican should be favored.

Presidential Results: 50.6 – 47.7 McCain

Announced Candidates: Leon Drolet

Potential Candidates:

Kim Meltzer (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Brian Palmer (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Likely Republican

District 12 Mike Bishop (R) OPEN

Pontiac, Rochester, Auburn Hills, North East Oakland County

Majority leader Bishop is term limited in this swing district in Oakland County.  Although President Obama won this district, I’m not extremely optimistic about picking this one up because Obama’s margin of victory was almost entirely from majority black Pontiac, where turnout won’t be as high next year.

Presidential Results: 52.5 – 46.0 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Tim Melton (D) State Rep. (2006 –  )

Tom McMillan (R) State Rep. (2008-   )

Rating: Leans Republican

District 13 John Pappageorge (R)

Royal Oak, Madison Heights, Berkley, Troy, Bloomfield, Birmingham

In 2006, State Rep. John Pappageorge beat Andy Levin (son of Sandy Levin) by less than 1,000 votes.  Many Democrats blamed Levin’s loss on Kyle McBee, the Green Party candidate who took 3,129 votes, more than 3 times Pappageorge’s margin of victory.  Democrats will challenge Pappageorge again, although it isn’t clear whether Levin will try again, or a State Representative like Marie Donigan will give it a shot.

Presidential Results: 53.7 – 44.8 Obama

Announced Challengers:

Potential Challengers:

Andy Levin (D) 2006 nominee

Marie Donigan (D) State Rep. (2002-   )

Rating: Tossup

District 14 Gilda Jacobs (D) OPEN

Farmington Hills, Southfield, Huntington Woods, Oak Park, Ferndale

This district is probably the most liberal district in Michigan, although not the most Democratic.  Rep. Gilda Jacobs is term limited, and while the all three of the State Reps. in the district are freshmen, whoever wins the Dem nomination will win.

Presidential Results: 74.6 – 24.3 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Rep. Ellen Cogen Lipton (D) (2008-   )

David Coulter (D) Oakland County Commission (2002-  )

Helaine Zack (D) Oakland County Commission (2002-  )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 15 Nancy Cassis (R) OPEN

Novi, South Lyon, West Bloomfield Township, Northville

I was shocked when I calculated the results for this district.  A decade ago, this was at least one of, if not the most Republican area in Michigan.  Western Oakland County being so Republican is the reason that we have Thad McCotter and Craig DeRoche, and yet this district voted for Barack Obama.  Even the city of Novi voted for him.  And better yet, he won by more than 3,000 votes!  Still, locally we have a while to go before a Democrat can represent Western Oakland County in the State Legislature.  I’m not very keen on this district as a possible pickup in ’10.

Presidential Results: 50.3 – 48.2 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Craig DeRoche (R) State Rep. (2000-2006)

David Law (R) State Rep. (2004-2008)

Rating: Likely Republican

District 16 Cameron Brown (R) OPEN, Lenawee, Branch, Hillsdale, and St. Joseph Counties

I doubt this district will be competitive, unless State Rep. Dudley Spade (D) runs, but even then a Republican like Bruce Caswell starts off with an advantage.

Presidential Results: 49.8 – 48.3 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Dudley Spade (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Bruce Caswell (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rick Schaffer (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Likely Republican

District 17 Randy Richardville (R) Monroe County, South Washtenaw, East Jackson

Not only the most gerrymandered, but also one of the most closely divided districts in Michigan, this one will likely be home to another competitive race in 2010.  The Washtenaw County portion of this district favors Dems, while the Jackson county portion favors Republicans and Monroe county is a swing region.  In fact, the Presidential results here are almost exactly what President Obama got nationwide, giving it a 2008 PVI of EVEN.  Unfortunately, our bench in this district isn’t the greatest, with our strongest possible candidate running for Secretary of State.  Still, State Rep. Kate Ebli might be able to beat Richardville.

Presidential Results: 52.7 – 45.6 Obama

Announced Challengers:

Potential Challengers:

Kate Ebli (D) State Rep. (2005-   )

Rating: Leans Republican

District 18 Liz Brater (D) Open Washtenaw County, Ann Arbor

One of the most Democratic districts in Michigan and the home of the University of Michigan.  The Democratic bench in this district is quite deep.  Any Democrat is safe here.

Presidential Results: 73.7 – 26.2 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

John Hieftje (D) Mayor of Ann Arbor

Rebekah Warren (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Pam Byrnes (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Chris Kolb (D) State Rep. (2000-2006)

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 19 VACANT (D)  Calhoun County (Battle Creek) and most of Jackson County

This is the Senate seat that Mark Schauer left vacant when he moved up to Congress last year.  It is usually a swing district, although President Obama won it with votes to spare.  Because this seat is vacant, there will be a special election to fill it later this year.  The Primary will be August 4th and the General on November 9th.

The Democratic candidates are State Rep. Martin Griffin of Jackson, and Sharon Reiner, who ran for congress in 2006 and 2008, narrowly losing to Tim Walberg and then losing badly in the primary to Mark Schauer.  Griffin is backed by the State Democratic Party and should win the Primary.  The Republican candidates are State Rep. Mike Nofs of Battle Creek and Sandstone Township Supervisor C. James Wellman.  Nofs, who is a moderate and popular in the Battle Creek area, should win the primary.  

The fact that 1. Nofs is very moderate 2. He’s very well known and liked in the Battle Creek area and 3. This will be a low turnout special election makes this a tough race for us.  Both parties with certainly spend a lot of money here.  Martin Griffin is from the Jackson area, which is an advantage, as Mark Schauer lost Jackson County in 2002 when he first ran for the State Senate.  If we lose this race it will make it that much more difficult to retake the Senate, so in some ways, whether or not Democrats can gain the trifecta and control redistricting depends on this race.

Presidential Results: 52.7 – 45.6 Obama

Candidates:  

Martin Griffin (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Sharon Reiner (D)

Mike Nofs (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

C. James Wellman (R) Sandstone Township Board Memeber

Rating: Tossup

District 20 Thomas George (R) OPEN Kalamazoo County, part of Van Buren County

Tom George, who is running for Governor, will be vacating the 2nd most Democratic seat currently held by a Republican, going by Obama’s winning percentage.  The Republican field is already starting to shape up, with former State Rep. Lawrence Wenke, who’s district included part of Western Kalamazoo County, and current State Rep. Tonya Schuitamaker are both running.  Schuitamaker’s base is Van Buren County, which she represents.  This district only includes two townships in Van Buren, so she would probably be at a disadvantage against Wenke in the primary.  Still, Republicans would do well to nominate someone from the city of Kalamazoo or it’s suburbs, and both Wenke and Schuitamaker are from the rural parts of the district.

Democrats have a few good potential candidates.  Former state Rep. and 2006 candidate Alex Lipsey, State Rep. Robert Jones, or Kalamazoo County Commission Chairman David Buskirk.

Presidential Results: 58.6 – 39.7 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Lawrence Wenke (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Tonya Schuitamaker (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Potential Candidates:

Alex Lipsey (D) State Rep. (2000-2006)

Robert Jones (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

David Buskirk (D) Kalamazoo County Commissioner; Chairman

Rating: Tossup

District 21 Ron Jelinek (R) OPEN Berrien, Cass and Van Buren Counties

A historically Republican area, President Obama did very well here.  This area is home to a lot of moderate Republicans (Fred Upton is from this area), and Berrien County is home to a lot of African-Americans.  Democrats have a very weak bench here, so don’t expect a win here.

Presidential Results: 52.1 – 46.3 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Judy Truesdell (D) 2006 and 2008 Candidate for State House

John Proos (R) State Rep. (2002-   )

Rating: Leans Republican

District 22 Valde Garcia (R) OPEN Livingston, Shiawassee, and Southern Ingham Counties

Livingston County is one of the most Republican Counties in Michigan.  You can be sure that another conservative “family values” Republican will be elected to replace Senator Garcia.

Presidential Results: 52.4 – 45.8 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Joe Hune (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Chris Ward (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Safe Republican

District 23 Gretchen Whitmer (D) Ingham County (Lansing)

Gretchen Whitmer will be safe if she runs for re-election.  If she runs for Attorney General, as many expect her to, there is a strong bench of Democrats in the lansing area to take her place.

Presidential Results: 67.2 – 31.3 Obama

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 24 Patricia Birkholz (R) OPEN Allegan, Barry, and Eaton Counties

Although Eaton county showed an impressive swing towards President Obama, the rest of this district, especially heavily Dutch Allegan, is still strongly Republican.

Presidential Results: 50.5 – 47.6 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Brian Calley (R) State Rep. (2006-   )

Rick Jones (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Fulton Sheen (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Safe Republican

District 25 Judson Gilbert (R) OPEN Lapeer and St. Clair Counties

Lapeer and St. Clair Counties are mostly suburban/exurban areas north of Detroit.  There is also quite a bit of rural farmland and the medium sized city of Port Huron.  A democrat could win here, expecially moderate like John Espinoza, although he doesn’t actually live in the district.  The Republicans have a deep bench here, and I’m not sure whether or not the State Democratic party will decide to put money here.

Presidential Results: 49.2 – 48.6

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

John Espinoza (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Phillip Pavlov (R) State Rep. (2004-  )

John Stahl (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Leans Republican

District 26 Deb Cherry (D) OPEN North and East Genesee County, Central Oakland County, Waterford

I don’t know why, but for some reason Republicans gave this suburban Flint area district an arm that reaches into central Oakland County, and they actually used touch-point contiguity to connect it to Waterford Township.  Maybe it was to make this district more Republican, although Waterford voted easily for Obama.  This district was held by Lt. Gov. John Cherry, and is now held by his sister, Deb.  It’s comfortably Democratic, but rising star, moderate African-American Republican Paul Scott could concievably give a Democrat a run for their money.

Presidential Results: 55.8 – 42.4 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Richard Hammel (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Jim Slezak (D) State Rep. (2008-   )

Ted Hammon (D) State Rep. (2006-2008)

Fran Amos (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Paul Scott (R) State Rep. (2008-  )

Rating: Leans Democrat

District 27 John Gleason (D) Flint, South-West Genesee County

The other Genessee County District, this one is much more Democratic.  It includes the city of Flint and other very Democratic areas west of the city.  If Gleason primaries Dale Kildee, there is a big Democratic bench here.

Presidential Results: 68.8 – 29.7 Obama

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 28 Mark Jansen (R) Kent County, suburban Grand Rapids

The 28th District is very strangely shaped.  It skirts around the city of Grand Rapids but includes conservative suburbs like Wyoming.  Mark Jansen should have not trouble winning re-election.

Presidential Results: 55.9 – 42.5 McCain

Rating: Safe Republican

District 29 Bill Hardiman (R) OPEN Grand Rapids, Kentwood

This is another district that we almost must win if we want to retake the senate.  It is the most Democratic district currently held by a Republican, going by Barack Obama’s winning margin.  It is basically all of the city of Grand Rapids plus a few suburbs.  Both Republicans and Democrats have decent benches here, but Democrats have been making gains lately (we won a state house seat in 2006).  I think that at the end of the day, the Democrat will win this district.

Presidential Results: 59.1 – 39.3 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Michael Sak (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

David LaGrand (D) Grand Rapids City Commissioner and 2006 Candidate

George Heartwell (D) Grand Rapids Mayor

Carol Hennessy (D) Minority Vice-Chair, Kent County Commission

Dave Hildenbrand (R) State Rep. (2004-  )

Glenn Steil (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Justin Amash (R) State Rep. (2008-   )

Jerry Kooiman (R) State Rep. (2000-2006)

Rating: Tossup

District 30 Wayne Kuipers (R) OPEN Ottawa County

This district is home to Ottawa County, one of the fastest growing and most Republican counties in Michigan.  Although, like with the South, as the population grows, so does the Democratic performance.  I’d estimate we may start winning this district by the 2020’s, but until then it will remain safely in Republican hands.

Presidential Results: 61.0 – 37.4 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

David Agema (R) State Rep. (2006-  )

Arlan Meekhof (R) State Rep. (2006-  )

Rating: Safe Republican

District 31 James Barcia (D) OPEN Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Bay, and Arenac Counties

Former Congressman James Barcia is term limited in this big district which includes the “Thumb” region and wraps around Saginaw Bay, including Bay City.  It’s relatively Democratic, although not overwhelmingly.  Democrats have a good bench, and State Rep. Jeff Mayes would be a big improvement over the moderate to conservative Barcia.

Presidential Results: 51.8 – 46.3 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Jeff Mayes (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Terry Brown (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

John Espinoza (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Rating: Leans Democrat

District 32 Roger Kahn (R) Saginaw and Gratiot Counties

In 2006, Roger Kahn (AKA Kaaahn!!) won this seat by only 450 votes.  He’s had sort of a rough first term, alledgedly getting into a physical altercation with a 72 year old female Senator Irma Clark-Coleman (D) of Detroit.  The incident was so bizarre that I think that I should post here excerpts from Clark-Coleman’s letter to Majority leader Bishop:

I submit this letter as a formal complaint against the State Senator

from the 32nd District who is a menace to the state legislature. He

perpetrated petulant and violent behavior toward me following a Senate

Appropriation committee meeting yesterday afternoon in the Capitol

building. I ask that you sanction him for conduct unbecoming of an

elected official. I am fearful that given the opportunity, this

legislator would continue to use physical intimidation to reinforce his

policy positions.

He accosted me inside of the main elevator. He rushed at me as if he

were going to strike me in the face after I expressed my great

displeasure with the committee’s approval of the Senate substitute for

HB 4436, which decimates Wayne County’s and Detroit’s ability to provide

mental and medical treatment for poor and uninsured residents…

The Senator from Saginaw charged at me like a bull while we were both

confined in a 6 x 6 elevator. His hysterical behavior startled

citizens who like me were simply trying to leave the Capitol building.

Everyone looked on in horror until the good Senator from the 13th

District blocked his advance to my side of the elevator car.

As the doors opened on the ground floor, the Senator from Troy took me

by the elbow and escorted me out of harm’s way. Despite my exit, the

legislator from the 32nd District continued his verbal assault. His

bellowing startled the Kentwood Senator and the state Budget Director

who were conversing at the visitor’s desk. Both gentlemen looked up in

utter amazement.

Never, in my twelve years as a state legislator, seven years as a member

of the Detroit Board of Education, and thirty years as a Wayne County

employee have I been attacked for my policy positions. I commend Troy’s

best for his quick action to shield me from my aggressor who had lost

control of his temper and his ability to reason.

Senator Kahn denies this, although it’s pretty crazy if true.  That, plus the Democratic nature of this district means he should be in for a tough race next year.

Presidential Results: 56.9 – 41.5 Obama

Announced Challengers:

Potential Challengers:

Andy Colouris (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Carl Williams (D) State Rep. (2000-2006) and 2006 Candidate

Rating: Tossup

District 33 Alan Cropsey (R) OPEN Clinton, Montcalm, Isabella, and Ionia Counties

Cropsey, who has always been to conservative for his district, is term limited.  Based mostly on his strength in Isabella County (home to CMU), Barack Obama won this district.  We also picked up a State House seat within this district last year, and we will probably pick up another one next year.  Still, our bench is not very strong here.  Democratic turnout may not be a strong next year, either, so I’m cautious about this district.

Presidential Results: 50.7 – 47.4 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Mike Huckleberry (D) State Rep. (2008-  ), 2004 and 2006 candidate for Congress

Bill Caul (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Paul Opsommer (R) State Rep. (2006-  )

Rating: Leans Republican

District 34 Gerald VanWoerkom (R) OPEN Muskegon, Oceana, Newaygo, and Mason Counties

It’s difficult to tell this far out, but I think that if we win any seats next year, this is our best shot.  Moderate Muskegon Republican Gerald VanWoerkom is retiring, and the Republican candidate to replace him looks to be State Rep. Geoff Hansen, although former State Rep. David Farhat it “thinking about it.”

Either way, we start out with an advantage.  Unlike VanWoerkom, who represented Muskegon County in the House, Hansen hails from the rural Northern portion of the district.  David Farhat, on the other hand, represented the same district as VanWoerkom.  That is, until he was spanked in 2006 by Dem Mary Valentine (he lost 56-44).  Mary Valentine has announced that she is running. Her popularity in the more suburban and rural part of the district and the fact that Farhat is thought to be somewhat corrupt, and Hansen has no base in Muskegon tells me that this one looks like a pickup.

Presidential Results: 58.3 – 40.0 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Mary Valentine (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Geoff Hansen (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Potential Candidates:

Mary Valentine (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Doug Bennett (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Julie Dennis (D) State Rep. (1998-2004) and 2006 Candidate

David Farhat (R) State Rep. (2002-2006)

Rating: Leans Democrat

District 35 Michelle McManus (R) OPEN Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Kalkaska, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Lake, Osceola, Clare, and Mecosta Counties

I consider Michelle McManus to be Michigan’s version of Michelle Bachmann.  She’s crazy, loud, and extremely conservative.  Luckily, she’s term limited.  Unluckily, she’s running for Secretary of State.  I doubt, however, that she’ll make it out of the Primary.  Obama won her district, and we picked up a State House seat, but our bench is weak in the North-Western Lower Peninsula area.  

Presidential Results: 49.3 – 49.0 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Darwin Booher (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

David Palsrok (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Leans Republican

District 36 Tony Stamas (R) OPEN Alpena, Alcona, Iosco, Ogemaw, Midland, Gladwin, Crawford, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Otsego Counties

Although Republican leaning nationally, this is a swing district in local in statewide races.  The southernmost county, Midland, favors Republicans.  In fact, the Republicans intetionally drew the Democratic northern Counties, especially Alpena, with Midland to create a Republican district.  In 2002, Alpena Democrat Andy Neumann ran against Midland Republican Tony Stamas, with Stamas prevailing narrowly.  Stamas in now term limited and Neumann, who is a State Representative, is “Strongly Leaning Towards running,” also likely to run is State Rep. Joel Sheltrown (D), who is more moderate than Neumann, and also not from the Alpena area, but Iosco County in the center of the district.  I think that Sheltrown would be a stronger candidate, but the primary will be nasty.  The Republican candidate will probably be former State Rep. John Moolenaar of Midland.

Presidential Results: 49.9 – 48.1 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Andy Neumann (D) State Rep. (1998-2002, 2008-   )

Joel Sheltrown (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

John Moolenaar (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Tossup

District 37 Jason Allen (R) OPEN Grand Traverse, Antrim, Charlevoix, Emmett, Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Mackinac, and Chippewa Counties

This is the most Republican Northern Michigan District.  I starts at Traverse City, then jumps the Straits of Mackinac and takes in Mackinac and Chippewa Counties in the U.P., including Sault Ste. Marie.  The Traverse City area has quite a few Republicans to replace Senator Allen, but Emmett, Mackinac, and Chippewa Counties, also a Republican area, are represented by State Rep. Gary McDowell (D).  McDowell is term limited and I could concievably see him winning this district, although it would be an uphill climb.

Presidential Results: 50.8 – 47.5

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Gary McDowell (D) State Rep. (2004-   )

Howard Walker (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Leans Republican

District 38 Mike Prusi (D) OPEN Keweenaw, Houghton, Ontonagon, Gogebic, Baraga, Iron, Dickinson, Marquette, Menominee, Delta, Alger, Schoolcraft, and Luce Counties.

My home district! I’ll be sad to see Prusi go, but it’s more important that we get a progressive Dem like him to take his place.  The Democratic bench is deep, the Republican one, not so much.  The Presidential results are a bit misleading, as the Democratic baseline here is far higher than President Obama’s total (which was still a comfortable win).  The most likely candidate is probably former State Rep. Tom Casperson, although the spanking he received at the Hands of Bart Stupak last year make keep him out of politics forever.  If he doesn’t run, it’s likely Dem.  If he does, it’s leans Dem.  Democrats hold every house seat in this district, and other than Casperson, we have for years, so we’ve got a very strong bench.  The two progressive Dems, Steve Lindberg and fmr. Rep. Steve Adamini are from Marquette, while the more conservative Reps are Mike Lahti of Houghton County and Judy Nerat of Menominee County.  

Presidential Results: 52.5 – 45.5

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Steve Lindberg (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Mike Lahti (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Steve Adamini (D) State Rep. (2000-2006), 2008 Candidate for Marquette County Prosecutor, Northern Michigan University Board of Trustees

Judy Nerat (D) State Rep. (2008-   )

Tom Casperson (R) State Rep. (2002-2008) and 2008 Candidate for Congress

Joel Westrom (R) First District GOP chairman and 2006 Candidate for State House

Rating: Leans Democrat

And for those who skipped some of that, here’s my summary.  Republican seats are bold and italic

Safe Democrat Seats

District 1 (OPEN)

District 2 (OPEN)

District 3 (OPEN)

District 4 (OPEN)

District 5 Hunter

District 8 (OPEN)

District 14 (OPEN)

District 23 (OPEN)

District 27 Gleason

Likely Democrat Seats

District 6 Anderson

District 9 (OPEN)

Leans Democrat Seats

District 10 (OPEN)

District 26 (OPEN)

District 31 (OPEN)

District 34 (OPEN)

District 38 (OPEN)

Tossup Seats

District 7 (OPEN)

District 13 Pappageorge

District 19 VACANT

District 20 (OPEN)

District 29 (OPEN)

District 32 Kahn

District 36 (OPEN)

Lean Republican Seats

District 12 (OPEN)

District 17 Richardville

District 21 (OPEN)

District 25 (OPEN)

District 33 (OPEN)

District 35 (OPEN)

District 37 (OPEN)

Likely Republican Seats

District 11 (OPEN)

District 15 (OPEN)

District 16 (OPEN)

Safe Republican Seats

District 22 (OPEN)

District 24 (OPEN)

District 28 Jansen

District 30 (OPEN)

The following are my thoughts on redistricting each of the Midwestern states-from Iowa and Missouri to Western Pennsylvania. I think in general, things look good for Dems right now, with the exceptions of Indiana and Missouri. But read on and tell me what you think.

In alphabetical order

Iowa

I think that in some ways, Iowa is the most predictable state because of the way they redraw their lines. You know that there will be a Democratic leaning 1st District in the northeast, a stronger Democratic 2nd in the southeast part, a Polk County/Des Moines based 3rd, and Steve King’s wingnut friendly 4th in the Western part of the state.

Indiana

With the GOP likely to run remap here, the consensus is that they’ll target Baron Hill by stripping him of Bloomington. I think that’s potentially dangerous, as neither Buyer or Burton are good campaigners. Furthermore, I think Baron Hill would be a great candidate for Governor, so the Indiana GOP better be careful what it wishes for……

Illinois

Two thoughts: if Kirk runs for Senate and we win his 10th (or if we win it outright), I’m guessing the ultimate target would be Judy Biggert, who’s older and less politically talented than Roskam. The best bet might be to pair them together in an ultra GOP DuPage based district and use the Dem leftovers with parts of say, the 9th to create a new Dem district.

Now my evil little thought: I wonder if we could create a Democratic leaning monstrosity with the most Democratic friendly parts of Rockford, Peoria, Champaign/Urbana, and Springfield. Yeah it’d be ugly, but so is Phil Hare’s 17th…..

Michigan

In Michigan, if Dems run remap, there are several ways to go with it. My guess is that they would draw Thad McCotter into an Ann Arbor based district that he couldn’t win-that’s by far the easiest. I also think they’ll. The other thing they should do is draw a Lansing based Democratic District drawn for Virg Bernero and give the GOP parts of the 8th to Candice Miller and pack all of the GOP’s Southeast strongholds into a single district. I suppose there’s also the outside possibility of a Dem Western district that combines the city of Grand Rapids with some of the Dem leaning counties on Lake Michigan, but I’m not sure Vern Ehlers wouldn’t win that anyways….

Minnesota

Regardless of whether the state ends up with 7 or 8 CDs, the objective of Minnesota’s redistricting plan (if Dems control, and I think they will) will be to get rid of Michele Bachmann. The only difference being how you do it. If there are 8 CDs, you simply draw a 6th that is is close to even and friendly to State Senator Tarryl Clark. If there are 7, slam her into an uber-GOP (Sherburne, Wright, Carver,Scott and the most GOP friendly parts of Dakota, Anoka, and Hennepin)  district with John Kline.

The big question here in either case is whether the DFL goes after the 3rd by swapping some of the more Democratic suburbs like St. Louis Park and Hopkins for GOP friendly stuff like Edina.

Missouri

Dems have to pray that Missouri holds onto its 9th CD so they can simply play incumbent protection and draw a more friendly 4th CD along the I-70 corridor from KC to Boone County. If Missouri goes to 8, I’m almost certain that Skelton’s district is toast.

Ohio

If Dems control redistricting and Ohio loses 2 seats, here’s some possibilities

-The basic premise is to pack the GOPers into 4 ultra GOP districts: the 4th, 5th, 7th and 8th while creating a Dem Dayton district, cracking the 14th into 3, and the 2nd into 3 parts plus creating a Democratic leaning mashup of the 18th and 12th designed for Zack Space.

-Create a Democratic 3rd by combining Montgomery County with Oxford and the most Dem friendly turf you can find in Greene.

-Eliminate Jean Schmidt’s 2nd with the Dem parts of Hamilton going to the 1st, the GOP suburban stuff splitting between the 7th and 8th CDs and the Dem leaning Ohio River Counties into the 6th.

-Drop the GOP parts of the 15th into the 4th, 5th, and 7th and pick up Dem friendly turf in Franklin. However be careful because….

-To protect Zack Space, try and take what’s left of Franklin and mate it to the friendliest portions of the 18th while dropping as much of the GOP stuff into the 7th as possible.

-Finally, crack Steve LaTourette’s 14th into 3 between Marcia Fudge’s 10th (as much of Geauga  as you can get away with), Tim Ryan’s new district (which would be something like half of Lake and what’s left of Geauga, Astabula, Trumbull and the most Dem parts of Mahoning with some Dem strength going to Boccieri in the 16th), Finally, put the other half of Lake into Kucinich’s 10th by connecting it along Lake Erie.

Pennsylvania

As I remarked in another diary, Tim Murphy is almost certainly toast because the map is likely to be redrawn by a judge due to the split in the state legislature. Flat out, there is no way that any sane judge would draw something similar to Murphy’s one step short of fictitious 18th CD that he has now. He’ll either wind up running against Murtha (and will lose) or will end up in something similar to Frank Mascara’s old 20th (which he’d lose as well).

Wisconsin

I think the best target for Wisconsin Dems, should they control the trifecta, would be to go after Paul Ryan rather than Tom Petri-its much easier to play mix and match with the heavily Democratic 2nd and 4th than it is with Petri’s 6th. Ryan’s also waaaay to conservative for his district as it is, and Petri is something of an institution in his district anyways, even if on paper it is slightly more Democratic.

Lately there has been a lot of Debate over the number of Democratic Congressional Districts that Democrats could gerrymander out of the state of Michigan if they had complete control (right now they hold the Governorship and State House.  They stand a good chance at taking control of the State Senate while the Governor’s race is a tossup).  A few people, namely IHateBush, have said that it is possible to succesfully draw a map that would yield 12 Democratic seats and only 2 Republican seats.  I’ve been trying for several weeks to draw a 12-2 map, meanwhile protecting endangered incumbents (specifically Schauer) and I’ve determined that a 12-2 map would be far overeaching and in a neutral or Republican leaning year might end up 9-5 or worse. I think the best Michigan Democrats could do is create 11 safe or Democrat leaning districts and 3 strongly Republican districts.  I’ve drawn a map that I think does just that, although I still am not entirely confident that we could hold both of my “Thumb” districts in a Republican year.  But without further ado, here’s my map.

District 1 (Bart Stupak D):  Since this is my home district, and I couldn’t face the specter of Tom Casperson or some other Republican becoming my Congressman when Bart Stupak retires, I’ve gone to pretty great lengths to make this one safer.  I added the remainder of Bay County, Isabella County (home to CMU) Clare County, and Roscommon County, all counties that President Obama won.  I took out the Republican leaning counties of Charlevoix, Antrim, Crawford, Oscoda, Otsego, and Montmorency.  Overall Obama’s performance in this district goes from about 50% to about 53%.

District 2 (Vern Ehlers R) this is probably the most gerrymandered looking of all of my new districts, but it has to be if we are going to have a Democrat leaning district in Western Michigan.  It takes in the Dem leaning Counties of Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Lake, Mason, and Oceana along the Lake Michigan shore, the Strongly Democratic County of Muskegon, and then tentacles into Kent County and picks up the cities of Grand Rapids, Kentwood, East Grand Rapids, and Wyoming.  Barack Obama won this district 57.2-41.1 giving it a nice, healthy PVI of D+4.3. Vern Ehlers likely would not be reelected to this district.

District 3 (Fred Upton R + TBD [successor to Pete Hoekstra] R) I’ve combined the old 2nd and 6th districts to form this heavily Republican District.  It takes in Ottawa, Allegan, Van Buren, Northern Berrien, and suburban Kent Counties.  Whoever succeeds Pete Hoekstra next year would probably be favored in a Primary against Upton, who is somewhat too moderate for this very conservative district.

District 4 (Dave Camp R) another one of my heavily Republican districts, this one takes in some of the rural and conservative Counties in Northern and Central Lower Peninsula, but it is based in Midland and Traverse City (Grand Traverse County) Barack Obama only won 2 counties in this new district, Gratiot and Clinton.  Dave Camp’s home in Midland is preserved in the new 4th.

District 5 (Open, leans D)  The new 5th district is the one that I would be least confident of us holding in a Republican year, but still in a neutral year it favors us. It has a PVI of about D+2-3 and it includes the Democratic County of Saginaw, about 2/3 of staunchly Democratic Genesee county (minus the city of flint) the Dem leaning Shiawassee County, sparsely populated Republican Counties in “the Thumb” and Tossup St. Clair County. Luckily former Democratic Congressman James Barcia’s home in Bay City is not in this district, for we really could get a more progressive Congressperson from this district. (State Sen. John Gleason, perhaps?)

District 6 (Mark Schauer D) I increased the Democratic performance in this district by drawing strongly Democratic Kalamazoo County out of Upton’s district and into this one.  I also added tossup county Cass and the Democrat leaning portions of Berrien County.  I took out Jackson and Lenawee County as well as the portion of Washtenaw that was in this district.

District 7 (Open, Democrat) It’s high time that Lansing is put into a Democratic district again, and that’s just what I’ve done.  This new district is L shaped and contains Ingham, Jackson, Hillsdale, Lenawee, and Monroe Counties.  Barack Obama won all these counties, except Hillsdale. Obama won the district 56.4-41.9 giving it a 2008 PVI of D+3.5.  If I had to guess what Democrat might win this district, I’d say State Rep. Barb Byrum (daughter of 2000 candidate Diane Byrum), State Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (distinction of being the “most liberal” Senator), or Lansing mayor and Former state Senator Virg Bernero.

District 8 (Gary Peters D) I’ve made this one a bit more Democratic by removing the cities of Rochester and Troy while adding Berkley, Southfield, and the rest of Waterford Township.  Removing the city of Troy also removes a potential future challenger to Peters, State Rep. Marty Knollenberg (son of Joe Knollenberg).  This district should be safe for Peters or a future Democrat if he runs for higher office.

District 9 (Candice Miller R + Dale Kildee D)  In 2002, Republicans drew David Bonior’s (D) Congressional District http://factfinder.census.gov/s… much more Republican, forcing him to retire or face certain defeat at the hands of their preffered candidate, Secretary of State Candice Miller.  It’s payback time.  I’ve drawn the most Democratic parts of Macomb County, including Miller’s home, into a district with exurban Republican Lapeer County, as well as the 90-10 Obama city of Flint, and other staunchly Democratic portions of Genesse County.  This includes Dale Kildee’s home, but he’ll be in his eightees by 2012 so he probably won’t be the one running against Miller, if Miller runs at all.

District 10 (Mike Rogers R) The last Republican district that I drew, the 10th includes fast growing and largely Republican Livingston County (home to Mike Rogers), Northern and Western Oakland County, and Shelby township in Macomb County. I considered drawing Livonia (Thad McCotter’s home) into this district as well, but I don’t want there to be any chance that he returns to Congress

District 11 (Sander Levin D) This distric largely reverts to it’s pre-2002 boundaries.  It now would contain all of Sterling Heights, Warren, Troy, Clawson, and Royal Oak, along with the most Democratic south Oakland Suburbs.  This district would be safe for Levin’s successor (hopefully state Rep. Ellen Cogen Lipton).

District 12 (Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrict D) Doesn’t change much except that it moves farther south and includes all of Dearborn.  It’s still majority African American and very strongly Democrat.  The only problem with the configuration of this district is that John Dingell lives in Dearborn.  If he is still serving in 2012 (which I doubt) a tendril can be drawn from the 14th District to pick up his home so that he wouldn’t be drawn into Kilpatrick’s district.

District 13 (John Conyers D + Thad McCotter R) Contains all of Northern Detroit and also reaches all the was west to include Redford Township, Livonia, Northville and Plymouth.  There’s no way Thad McCotter could win this majority African American Detroit District.  Safe for Conyers and his successors.

District 14 (Open D) This one looks very much like Lynn River’s old district http://factfinder.census.gov/l… and would probably elect an Ann Arbor Democrat (State Sen. Liz Brater, fmr. State Rep. Chris Kolb, who would be the first openly gay congressman from Michigan, or maybe even Rivers if she wants to get back into politics.) Also includes a large portion of Suburban Wayne County taking in the Democratic cities of Canton and Westland. If John Dingell is still serving and runs for re-election in 2012, then a tendril will have to be drawn to include his home in Dearborn, but when he finally retires it will probably elect someone more progressive.  Obama won this district 64.5-32.6.

What does everyone think of my map? Suggestions, corrections, questions, comments? I want to hear them.

I know redistricting diaries are a dime a dozen these days, but I’m going to do one that has never been done before: Michigan (assuming full Democratic control of the process).  Nathaniel90 already drew a split control compromise map found here: http://www.swingstateproject.c…  

Michigan will be losing a seat in 2012, going from 15 to 14.  I think the chances of full Democratic control is about 50-50 or maybe slightly better.  It looks like we have a very good shot at taking back control of the State Senate, while the Governors race is still pretty much up in the air, with presumptive nominee John Cherry lagging in the most recent poll.  But this far out, no one can predict this one yet.

By this map Democrats would presumably hold a 9-5 advantage in Representation.  They currently hold a 8-7 Advantage.  In 2002, when Republicans drew the map, they (Rs) held a 9-6 advantage.  My map protects freshmen Gary Peters and Mark Schauer, while throwing Dave Camp and Mike Rogers into a district together.  It also draws a much more Democratic district for Thaddeus McCotter (or his Democratic successor), presumably eliminating him if he isn’t already gone by 2012.

My map was drawn on microsoft paint, and some of the more detailed borders aren’t exact.  Also my computer has some kind of problem with pixelation or something, so it may appear a little blurry.  Without further ado, here’s my map with district profiles down below the flip.  

District 1– (Bart Stupak D) mostly the same but expands to include Kalkaska, Roscommon, and the rest of Bay County.  Overall becomes slightly more Democratic.

District 2– (TBD[successor of Pete Hoekstra]R) gives up Allegan County in the south, as well as Eastern portions of Ottawa County and the North-West corner of Kent County that was formerly in the district.  Gains Leelanau, Grand Traverse, Missaukee, and Osceola Counties.  This district becomes a bit more Democratic (mostly because it loses strongly conservative parts of Ottawa and Kent Counties) and Barack Obama would have carried this district narrowly, but it should still favor Republicans in the future.

District 3– (Vern Ehlers R) Drops Barry and Ionia County in exchange for some very Conservative areas of Kent and Ottawa Counties.  Becomes more Republican.

District 4– (Dave Camp R + Mike Rogers R) I decided that I would throw these two together because I did not want to eliminate Thad McCotter in case he is defeated by a Democrat in 2010. I put Livingston County (Rogers base and home) in with most of the current 4th District. Dave Camp should be the favorite considering it includes his base of Midland as well as most of his old turf, but I wouldn’t count Mike Rogers out.  The inclusion of Livingston County makes this district more Republican.  Barack Obama would have lost here.

5th District– (Dale Kildee D)  Looks like a combination of James Barcia’s old District and Dale Kildee’s current district.  It drops all of the territory it held in Bay County but gains the more Republican thumb counties of Huron and Sanilac.  However, with Flint as the base of this district and Genesee County making up more than half of the population, this District stays Democratic.

6th District– (Fred Upton R) This is the most gerrymandered district in the state, and yet it only splits one County!  This district looks quite a bit different from it’s current shape  It’s base of Kalamazoo is taken out to make Mark Schauer safer.  In exchange it gets all of Allegan, Barry, and Branch counties and about half of Eaton County.  The loss of Kalamazoo makes this district a lot more Republican, although Barack Obama may have won here, depending on exactly what parts of Eaton County are included.

7th District–  (Mark Schauer D) I think that I succeeded in making Mark Schauer safe from any Republican challenge, but I fear that I may have set him up for a primary challenge from a Lansing area Democrat, as Lansing becomes the new base of this district.  The only part of the old 7th district that I left was Calhoun County (Battle Creek) which is Schauer’s home.  I put in all of Ingham and Kalamazoo Counties and about half of Eaton.  Barack Obama won every county in this district and probably came close to 60% here.

8th District– (Gary Peters D)  It is hard to tell on my map, but according to my plan for the 8th district, Gary Peters would get Madison Heights and Southfield, both extremely Democratic cities (Barack Obama got 88% in Southfield), while dropping the strongly Republican cities of Rochester, Rochester Hills, and Berkley.  The addition of Southfield probably brings Barack Obama to around 60% here.

9th District– (Candice Miller R)  Instead of a “Thumb” district, this district becomes a “Detroit suburbs and exurbs district.” It loses Sterling Heights and Utica in Macomb County, and Huron and Sanilac Counties in “The Thumb,” While picking up some seriously Republican turf in Oakland County, including the suburb Novi that is currently in Thad McCotters 11th District.  It still includes the Republican leaning Exurb St. Clair and Lapeer Counties.

10th District– (Thad McCotter R [Should favor Democrat])  Includes all of Thad McCotter’s current portion of Wayne County, plus the cities of Inkster, Romulus, and part of Dearborn Heights.  The current part of Wayne County in the 11th gave Obama 57%.  That probably bumps up to just under 60% Obama.  Also includes Monroe County, which Obama won 51-47.

11th District– (Sander Levin D)  Changes very little, except that it swaps out Southfield for the rest of Sterling Heights.  Becomes a bit less Democratic, but still favors Levin or his successor.

12th District– (Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick D)  One of two VRA protected districts in Michigan.  Population loss will force this district to expand, but it still stays within Wayne County and is majority Black.

13th District–  (John Conyers D)  The other VRA district expands into Dearborn but stays heavily Black and heavily Democratic. (Note that John Dingell’s home is in this new district, but I expect that he’ll have retired by 2012 and if frankly, if Debbie Dingell is holding his seat by then, I really don’t care if she gets stuck in Conyer’s district)

14th District– (John Dingell D)  This district moves out of Wayne County and now takes in all of Washtenaw County as well as Jackson, Lenawee, and Hillsdale Counties.  It is now completely based in Ann Arbor and should elect a liberal, Ann Arbor Democrat.  Barack Obama won three out of the four Counties in this new district.

Questions? Comments? Errors to point out?  Leave ’em in the comments.