Tag: Pennsylvania

Here is my first attempt at redistricting Pennsylvania. This one will be much better.

Chris Carney, Tim Holden, Jason Altmire, Kathy Dahlkemper, and Mark Critz are all Democratic Congressmen representing districts that Obama lost. I’m going to fix that. This plan creates 14 Congressional districts (out of 18) where the Democrats are favored to win. It preserves communities of interest. It looks much cleaner and less gerrymandered than the current map. And it has a VRA district that’s the most Democratic district in America.

Click for a larger map

1st District Bob Brady (D)

East Philadelphia (yellow)

New 70%O 29%M Old 88%O 12%M

63% White, 11% Black, 17% Hispanic, 7% Asian

It’s a big drop from 88% to 70% but he’s still safe.

2nd District Chaka Fattah (D)

West Philadelphia (dark blue)

New 96%O 4%M Old 90%O 10%M

13% White, 75% Black, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian

Compare the demographics of districts 1 and 2, and then notice that what separates them is mostly a single straight line. That’s how segregated Philadelphia is. This is the most Democratic district in the country. Since Pennsylvania has enough votes to spare, it should compete for that honor.

3rd District Brian Lentz (D)

Delaware County, southern Chester County (brown)

New 58%O 41%M Old 56%O 43%M

75% White, 16% Black, 4% Hispanic, 4% Asian

It gets all of Delaware County, including the black parts currently in PA-1. This makes it 2 points more Democratic.

4th District Allyson Schwartz (D)

Montgomery County (green)

New 62%O 37%M Old 59%O 41%M

80% White, 9% Black, 3% Hispanic, 6% Asian

Most of Montgomery County is now one solid compact district, and it’s safe Dem.

5th District Patrick Murphy (D)

Bucks County (orange)

New 54%O 45%M Old 54%O 45%M

88% White, 4% Black, 3% Hispanic, 4% Asian

It’s a tiny bit more Democratic than it was before. If you keep all of Bucks County in one district then there’s not much you can do.

6th District Jim Gerlach (R) or Manan Trivedi (D)

West Chester, Coatesville, Reading (peach)

New 55%O 44%M Old 58%O 41%M

81% White, 6% Black, 10% Hispanic, 3% Asian

If Jim Gerlach gets reelected this year then this plan won’t work. If he keeps winning 52% of the vote in his district then he’ll win a safe 55% of the vote in a district that’s 3% more Republican. The only way to dislodge him will be to put some lower Montgomery County in this district and then put a lot of Berks County in Allyson Schwartz’s district. It will be ugly and un-communities-of-interest-ish and no one wants that. However if Trivedi wins this year (and I think he will) then he should be able to hold a 55% Obama district that gets more Democratic every year and is centered around his home in Berks County.

7th District Charlie Dent (R)

Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton (pale blue)

New 57%O 42%M Old 56%O 43%M

79% White, 5% Black, 12% Hispanic, 2% Asian

At 57% Obama it will have to go Democratic eventually. This counts towards one of the 14 D’s.

8th District Tim Holden (D) vs Paul Kanjorski (D)

Wilkes-Barre, Pottsville, Stroudsburg (lime green)

New 53%O 45%M Old 57%O 42%M

88% White, 4% Black, 6% Hispanic, 1% Asian

Obama won a 50% plurality in this part of Schuylkill County and he got 56% of Luzerne. It’s not the best at communities of interest. It has a liberal city (Wilkes-Barre), rich liberal rural area (Monroe Co), poor rural barely-Democratic areas (Carbon, Schuylkill, rest of Luzerne Co) and conservative suburbs (Northampton and Lehigh Co). If Kanjorski beats Barletta this year then it’s worth taking our chances on a 53% Obama district, especially with Monroe County which is quickly getting more populous and more Democratic. If Barletta wins then a 14-4 plan goes out the window, and instead Barletta gets a more Republican version of this district, and Carney gets a safe Scranton and Wilkes-Barre district.

9th District Chris Carney (D)

Scranton, State College, Northern Tier (pink)

New 52%O 46%M Old 45%O 54%M

93% White, 2% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Carney gets a 52% Obama district. I’m sure he’ll appreciate that as he drives 300 miles to a townhall in Warren. It has 2 different centers of population, Scranton and State College, but so what, lots of congressional districts have 2 different centers of population (right?). Carney is the second biggest winner from this plan.

10th District Glenn Thompson (R)

Williamsport, Bloomsburg, Lebanon (cyan)

New 41%O 58%M Old 44%O 55%M

93% White, 3% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This is the first of 4 Republican districts. It’s the only one with any chance of going Democratic within the decade. Maybe it’s 10 years behind NY-20 (a comparable rural northern district) and will trend Democratic.

11th District Todd Platts (R)

Lancaster County, York County, Adams County (blue-purple)

New 37%O 62%M Old 43%O 56%M

94% White, 2% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This district is as Republican as the current PA-19 was 10 years ago. This is the smallest (densest) Republican district. It is trending Democratic, but not fast enough for a Democrat to win it within the next decade.

12th District open

Lancaster, York, Harrisburg (gray)

New 54%O 45%M

76% White, 11% Black, 9% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Obama won each of the 3 county fragments and narrowly lost the Cumberland part. Since we can make a Democratic district out of the 3 mid-state cities and their suburbs, we should.

13th District Bill Shuster (R)

Chambersburg, Bedford, Altoona (turquoise)

New 34%O 64%M Old 35%O 63%M

95% White, 2% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian

Definitely the most Republican district in the Northeast, maybe one of the 20 most Republican districts in the country. And it no longer reaches west to suck up Democratic votes in Fayette and Indiana counties.

14th District Mark Critz (D)

Washington, Uniontown, Johnstown (red)

New 50%O 49%M Old 49%O 50%M

93% White, 4% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian

It’s a thicker, less gerrymandered-looking version of the Critz district. It has the least % Obama of all 14 Democratic districts. Obama only won a 50% plurality, but as you know, this area is more Democratic at the local level than the presidential level. Obama won the Beaver, Washington, Indiana, and Clearfield parts of this district. Out of the 14, I think this is the district that is most likely to go Republican within the next decade.

15th District Mike Doyle (D)

Pittsburgh, Braddock, McKeesport (purple)

New 56%O 44%M Old 70%O 29%M

86% White, 8% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

In order to protect 4 incumbents in Western PA Mike Doyle had to take one for the team. Pittsburgh gets spread between 2 districts. Still, at 56% Obama, and stronger at the local level, it shouldn’t be a problem for Doyle or any Democrat who succeeds him.

16th District Jason Altmire (D)

Pittsburgh, Ross, Lower Burrell (green)

New 55%O 44%M Old 44%O 55%M

80% White, 15% Black, 1% Hispanic, 2% Asian

By losing Butler County and gaining half of Pittsburgh, Altmire is the biggest winner from this redistricting plan. Hopefully Altmire is adaptable, and this district will allow him (or force him) to vote more liberally.

17th District Tim Murphy (R)

Greensburg, Butler, Punxsutawney (yellow)

New 38%O 61%M Old 44%O 55%M

97% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian

It doesn’t look like Tim Murphy’s old district, but 23% of it overlaps with his old district. After putting anything remotely Democratic in a Democratic district, this is what you have leftover.

18th District Kathy Dahlkemper (D)

Erie, Hermitage, New Castle (blue)

New 52%O 47%M Old 49%O 49%M

91% White, 5% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This is about the most Democratic possible compact northwestern district. As Mercer, Lawrence and Beaver trend Republican, Erie is trending more Democratic, so that should help the district stay Democratic.

Since the Republicans already control Pennsylvania’s state senate, and they have a decent shot at picking up the trifecta in 2010, I decided to create a map which should yield at least 13, and possibly 14, Republicans. Although not every district is maintained in its present form, every Republican incumbent has at least one district that has some portion of their base. In the process, I completely demolished Holden’s district, and gave most Democratic incumbents plenty of unfamiliar areas to deal with. I did not split any municipalities except when creating majority-minority districts, and the highest deviation from the mean in terms of population is 855.

Entire State:

Metro Philadelphia:

Districts are numbered in the order that they were created, since Pennsylvania’s current numbering system makes no sense anyway.

PA-1 (Blue in Metro Philly):

This district is 51% black and effectively serves as a votesink in North Philly, taking in pretty much all of the black and Hispanic areas and expanding north to pick up Cheltenham and Abingdon in MontCo, which are very heavily D as well. Chaka Fattah would run here.

PA-2 (Green in Metro Philly):

This one would most likely be Bob Brady’s district. It’s 49% black in order to maintain the status quo with the VRA, but at the same time pick up as many black voters as possible (see the arm that goes into Chester). The most Democratic parts of the Main Line also get put in here, such as Lower Merion, Haverford and Radnor (the home of Villanova).

PA-3 (Deep Purple):

It’s always sunny in this district, which was created with one goal in mind: link together all of Philly’s white working class areas, in the hopes (for the GOP) of a demographic avalanche. The MontCo parts of this district lean Democratic, and it’s more than possible for a Democrat to win here, but the GOP has a better chance in the long-term than in any of the present-day suburban districts, all of which seem to be trending away from them. (If this district does elect a Democrat, there will still only be five in the state, which the Republicans would definitely accept.)

PA-4 (Red):

To my knowledge, it’s tradition of some sort to keep all of Bucks County in the same district, which benefits the Republicans as Obama did the worst here out of all the suburban counties (even Chester). All I’ve done is just attach some of the more reflexively GOP rural areas west of Allentown, which is just about all that can be done if you don’t split municipalities.

PA-5 (Mustard Yellow):

This district is what’s left of the current PA-13 after all of the most D parts in southern Montgomery are taken out and very conservative areas in Berks (away from Reading) and Lebanon are added. With the new additions and removal of just about everything south-east of Norristown, it’s tough to imagine the Democrats holding this one.

PA-6 (Teal):

This district was designed with one of two scenarios in mind: if Pat Meehan wins in November, he would run in this new district – if he can win in the current PA-7, adding rural York County would make him safe – and Platts would run in the new PA-12 which contains Harrisburg suburbs that he’s represented before, while if Meehan loses, the somewhat sane Platts can afford to take on a bit of DelCo, which isn’t that Democratic anyway with the removal of Chester and the Main Line. Either way, it’s pretty safe Republican.

PA-7 (Gray):

This is Gerlach’s district, assuming he survives. He’s won before with a district containing Reading, Lower Merion and various other Democratic hotbeds, so he should probably keep overperforming and romp home in a district that contains too much Lancaster for the Dems to realistically compete in. (If Gerlach loses, Pitts can run here if he wants, but he might prefer my new PA-8.)

PA-8 (Indigo):

In order to neutralize the cities of Lancaster and York, which have more minorities and are more Democratic than one might first think, I attached them to some of the most uniformly GOP turf in the state: Franklin and Adams Counties and the rural areas of Cumberland. Considering those areas vote 70%+ for Republican candidates year in and year out, and they comprise about half of the district, I’d call this safe for the GOP.

PA-9 (Light Blue):

This district was created with Charlie Dent in mind, and considering the fact that he has survived in a district that Kerry won and Obama cleaned up in, getting one like this would be a dream for him. He is relieved of Allentown and Bethlehem and instead gets places like Susquehanna and Bradford Counties that are still very Republican. (If Dent loses this year, this district would be doable for the Dems to hold, but it would be a lot tougher than the current PA-15.)

PA-10 (Pink):

Well, northeastern PA has gotten Democratic enough that one safe D votesink is pretty much inevitable in a GOP map, and I made that seat about as safe (and as convoluted) as possible. Allentown, Bethlehem, the most Democratic parts of the Poconos, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre and all of the blue towns in between go into this district, and what comes out is something that vaguely resembles the letter E that Obama might have cleared 60%, if not 65%, in. Since Chris Carney seems to be the Northeast PA Dem most likely to win (I know, I can’t believe it either), I’ll provisionally award the seat to him, but if both him and Kanjorski survive, the two would probably fight over it.

PA-11 (Lime):

I already neutralized Lancaster and York, and I’ll do the same to Reading, which is too Democratic to go in any of the Philly suburban districts in a GOP map. If Holden ran anywhere, it would probably be here, as this district contains most of his Schuylkill base. However, it also contains parts of the Susquehanna Valley that are not in his district and have few Dems outside of Lewisburg (Bucknell) and Selinsgrove (Susquehanna). If Barletta wins, he would have the option of running here (this district contains Columbia County, which is part of the current PA-11, and his home in Hazleton is just a few miles away and can easily be drawn in). Otherwise, it’s up for grabs to whichever local officeholder wants it.

PA-12 (Periwinkle):

The Harrisburg area isn’t that Democratic in the grand scheme of things, and linking it to astonishingly GOP areas to the west (Fulton, Huntingdon, Mifflin, Juniata and Perry are all 60%+ McCain and make up about half of the district) does no favours for the Democrats. Neither does Altoona, which McCain actually won. State College is in this district as well, but it’s too small to make a difference by itself. I guess Holden could run here, but once again he’s facing areas that he’s never represented before. (If Platts doesn’t run here, Shuster will.)

PA-13 (Clay):

Instead of just sitting there in the Northern Tier taking up space, I decided to put the old PA-5 to some good use, having it eat some of Holden’s district and some of the State College area. The swing areas of the Northern Tier (Lock Haven, Elk County) are just too badly outnumbered by the GOP rural areas and wilderness for a Democrat to win this district, with counties like Warren, McKean, Potter and Tioga going pretty heavily for the GOP in just about every election.

PA-14 (Green-Brown):

A rare instance in which my numbering scheme overlaps with the scheme already in place, this district grabs just about every Democrat from the Pittsburgh area that I could get while maintaining equal population. So, basically, just like the current PA-14.

PA-15 (Orange):

This would be Dahlkemper’s district, which starts in Erie and heads on over to heavily Republican Blair County, minus Altoona. The connecting areas, Venango, Clarion and Indiana Counties, also are quite Republican, and are new to Dahlkemper so she would have to introduce herself to her district all over again.

PA-16 (Nuclear Waste Green):

This would be Altmire’s district. As with Dahlkemper, I gave him a whole lot more Republicans who previously weren’t in his district (such as those in Butler County, which is about as red as a flaming brick being eaten by a fire truck).

PA-17 (Navy Blue):

I’m guessing Tim Murphy could run in this district in which McCain won every county fragment. Not much more to say about it, though.

PA-18 (Canary Yellow):

This distrct would probably be Critz’s, although I have given him almost all of GOP Westmoreland County, plus all of even more GOP Somerset and Bedford. (By creating the Western PA districts how I did, I completely broke up the Murthamander.) Shuster would run here if all other options are taken.

So there you have it. A map of a state which Obama won by 10% in which a maximum 14 of 18 representatives are Republicans.

This is the last part of a series of posts analyzing the swing state Pennsylvania. The previous parts can be found here.

Conclusions

For many decades, Pennsylvania constituted model of Democratic strength based upon working-class votes. Today that is changing, especially in the southwest. For the moment, nevertheless, the swing state Pennsylvania remains Democratic-leaning. This is more because of an unusually strong Democratic machine than any natural liberalism in Pennsylvania.

In 2008 Democrats won Pennsylvania by double-digits, amassing a coalition based upon poor blacks in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, rich whites in the Philadelphia suburbs, and working-class votes outside Appalachia. It is a strange-looking combination, but it works.

More below.

Republicans built their strength upon small towns and exurban communities in “the T,” along with working-class votes in the southwest.

For decades, Republicans have been strengthening in western Pennsylvania, while weakening in eastern Pennsylvania. This map indicates these changes.

Although it doesn’t look like it, the 2008 Democratic candidate (who won by 10.32%) actually did better than the 1992 candidate (who won by 9.02%).

From all this, the best news for Democrats would be the blue shift Philadelphia’s suburbs have undergone. Republicans will take heart in the Appalachan southwest’s even stronger movement right.

I have previously opined that these changes benefit Democrats on the whole. Indeed, this whole series of posts has inclined toward a theory of continuing Democratic strength in Pennsylvania. I will conclude this chain of posts, therefore, with a map Republicans will like – the 2008 Pennsylvania results by municipality. This illustrates how President George W. Bush almost won Pennsylvania in 2004.

Note: Several months ago I posted several diaries analyzing the swing state Pennsylvania. In a search of my posting archives, I just found out that I’d apparently forgotten to post this final part – so here it is.

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

Pennsylvania has been known as a swing state for 60 years.  In every Presidential election during that time, the Democratic Presidential candidate did better there than nationally.  John Kerry won it by a 2.5% margin and carried 13 of 67 counties (Allegheny, Beaver, Bucks, Delaware, Erie, Fayette, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Luzerne, Montgomery, Northampton, Philadelphia, and Washington.)  Al Gore carried 18 counties (all of these and Cambria, Carbon, Greene, Lawrence, and Mercer.)

Barack Obama also carried 18 counties (the Kerry counties minus Beaver, Fayette, and Washington plus Berks, Cambria, Carbon, Centre, Chester, Dauphin, Elk, and Monroe.)  He picked up eight Bush counties and McCain picked up three Kerry counties.  Obama only lost ground in six southwestern counties (the three that turned red and Armstrong, Lawrence, and Westmoreland.)  The four counties of Berks, Chester, Dauphin, and Monroe went blue for the first time since LBJ in 1964.  The closest counties were Monroe in 2004 (GWB by four votes) and Mercer in 2008 (McCain by 173 votes.)

There is an interesting paradox with the Commonwealth’s 19 Congressional districts.  In 2004, Kerry won 10 of them, with the 15th being the closest (he carried by 103 votes.)  Despite Obama winning statewide by over 10%, the 12th CD was the only one in the nation to flip to McCain and Obama came up only 17 votes short in the 3rd CD.  Therefore, Obama only carried nine districts, although he only lost the normally-Republican 16th and 17th districts by 3-4 point margins.  This should teach us to distrust a CD-based system of electors (like Maine and Nebraska) in more populous states.  It is subject to gerrymandering, as the GOP did in 2001 in Pennsylvania.

The Commonwealth’s PVI is D+2.2.  Here are the counties ranked by PVI:

D+31: Philadelphia

D+8: Delaware, Lackawanna

D+7: Allegheny, Montgomery

D+6: Erie

D+3: Lehigh, Monroe

D+2: Bucks, Luzerne, Northampton

D+1: Centre, Fayette

EVEN: Chester

R+1: Beaver, Berks, Carbon, Dauphin

R+2: Cambria, Elk, Greene, Mercer, Washington

R+3: Lawrence

R+6: Clinton, Indiana, Schuylkill, Warren

R+7: Columbia, Pike

R+8: Crawford

R+9: Clearfield, Westmoreland, Wyoming

R+10: Forest, Northumberland, Susquehanna

R+11: Wayne

R+12: Cumberland, Lancaster, McKean, Montour, Venango, York

R+13: Armstrong, Sullivan

R+14: Bradford, Clarion

R+15: Adams, Cameron, Lebanon, Somerset

R+16: Blair, Butler, Lycoming

R+17: Huntingdon, Tioga

R+18: Jefferson

R+19: Snyder

R+20: Franklin, Mifflin

R+21: Juniata, Perry, Potter

R+24: Bedford

R+27: Fulton

This post is under construction.

By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

On Tuesday night Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district held a special election, pitting Democratic candidate Mark Critz against Republican Tim Burns.

Mr. Critz won solidly: a nine percent margin of victory off 53.4% of the vote. Several polls had predicted a very close, photo-finish election; this result contradicted that assumption.

This victory constitutes good – very good – news for Democrats.

More below.

His district, PA-12, was one of the few countrywide that voted more Republican from 2004 to 2008, as the rest of the nation shifted substantially left. Districts such as these are prime targets for Republicans in 2010.

Indeed, PA-12 constituted the only seat in the entire nation that supported Senator John Kerry and then switched its vote to Senator John McCain. For reasons such as this, I wrote a week ago that:

It will be a minor miracle if Democratic candidate Mark Critz wins.  [Almost] no Democratic candidate has ever done better than Mr. Obama since his  election. Mr. Critz will have to do that, given that the president lost  PA-12 (the only seat in the nation to support Kerry and the McCain). In a  district with double-digit disapproval ratings of Mr. Obama, this  constitutes an arduous task.

As it turned out, Mr. Critz did far better than Mr. Obama. Indeed, his victory constitutes the first time a Democratic candidate has improved on the president’s performance since December of 2008, when Democrat Paul Carmouche barely lost LA-4 to Congressman John Fleming.

Mr. Critz won by appealing to local issues, emphasizing his independence from the president, and sounding like a fiscally liberal, socially conservative Democrat – the type of Democrat places like PA-12 have traditionally voted for.

This is a strategy that Democrats have long used, to great success, in winning congressional districts that they should not be winning. It is how both Mississippi and Arkansas elect three Democratic versus one Republican congressional representative, and how Texas elected more Democratic than Republican congressman right until 2004. It is partly how the party won such great congressional victories in 2006 and 2008.

There has been much fear amongst Democrats that, in light of Mr. Obama’s presidency, this strategy will no longer work. State Senator Creigh Deeds tried running a rural-style candidacy for Virginia’s governorship; he failed quite miserably.

Mark Critz, on the other hand, succeeded where many – including this individual – thought for sure he would fail. His performance certainly does not mean that Democrats are in for an easy time come November, but it does give the party something to work with in the tough days ahead.

With everything else on the ballot this past Tuesday (several high-profile congressional and gubernatorial primaries, as well as the PA-12 special election), the Pennsylvania State House primaries went somewhat under the radar.  But as the Pottstown Mercury explains, the results in some key races have put Democrats in a significantly better position to hold the chamber this November:  

Lehigh County Republican Rep. Karen Beyer lost to a 23-year-old upstart who attacked her for supporting budget deals negotiated by Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell and for collecting taxpayer-funded perks.

Rep. Mike Gerber, D-Montgomery, his caucus’ leading campaign strategist, said he was encouraged by the results in Beyer’s race, as well as the Republican primary for the Williamsport-area district currently held by freshman Rep. Rick Mirabito, D-Lycoming.

In the Williamsport race, the Republican who Mirabito beat two years ago defeated a more moderate candidate who last held the seat.

Gerber said he also was pleased with the quality of his party’s winners in multi-candidate races to fill vacancies. Those races will largely determine which party claims the majority come January. Republicans are working to regain majority control of the House, currently held 104-to-99 by the Democrats (…)

As a rule, the DLCC generally does not get directly involved in primary elections.  However, we share Rep. Gerber’s enthusiasm for the Democratic winners in open-seat contests (there are 19 open seats in the State House this year), and we agree that Democrats are more likely now to hold the House than we were two days ago.  

Rep. Gerber also serves as the Treasurer of the DLCC’s Board of Directors.

Holding the Pennsylvania House is one of the top Democratic priorities this year because of Redistricting.  Republicans dominated the state’s redistricting process in 2000 and drew one of the ugliest Republican gerrymanders in the country.  The Republican-drawn congressional maps forced six incumbent Democrats to run against each other and turned a one-seat Republican advantage in Pennsylvania’s congressional delegation into a five-seat advantage.    

Democrats fought back in 2006 and 2008, helped by demographic changes and a poisonous national climate for Republicans, but right now the Democratic State House is the key to preventing Republicans from wiping out those gains all over again.  

3:07am: The AR-03 (R) runoff has been called for Womack and Bledsoe.

1:52am: OR-01’s R primary has finally been called by the AP for Rob Cornilles, who beat opponents Keller and Kuzmanich 40-29-28. We’re still waiting on one race: which wingnut squeaks into the Republican runoff in AR-03 against Steve Womack: will it be Cecile Bledsoe or Gunner DeLay? Bledsoe has pulled into a tiny lead (13% each, with a 182 vote spread, with 510 of 533 reporting).

12:54am: The AP has called the OR-Gov GOP primary for Chris Dudley. I forget which pundit made the point, but this sets up possibly the tallest major election ever, if you laid the two candidates end-to-end. At any rate, I think Dudley poses less of a challenge for Kitz than would Alley, who came across more, uh, substantial.

12:49am: Two last races out there. In the wingnut central that is AR-03, Gunner DeLay and Cecile Bledsoe are duking it out for the right to go into a runoff with Steve Womack (91% counted). And in OR-01, Rob Cornilles has a 10-point lead over Douglas Keller, but the vote’s still being counted.

12:42am: The AP calls PA-06 (D) for Manan Trivedi and PA-17 (R) for Dave Argall.

12:34am: All 100% are reporting in PA-17 as well, and David Argall seems to have won, beating Frank Ryan 32-31 (with a 900 vote spread). AP hasn’t called this one, yet.

12:22am: Trivedi wins! 100% in according to the AP, and he’s up 21,338 to 20,667, a 50.8% to 49.2% victory! WOOHOO!!!! GREAT NIGHT!

12:12am: Manan Trivedi is up 672 votes, and it looks like there are very few if any precincts outstanding. Hard to tell, though, since the SoS doesn’t say, and AP is lagging.

12:09am: AP calls OR-05 (R) for Scott Bruun. He’ll face freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader in the fall.

12:05am: Alright, where’s the foul up with the PA-19 (R) numbers? According to the AP, Rep. Todd Platts dispatched his primary challenger, Michael Smeltzer, with ease – 70-30. But the PA SoS shows him barely surviving, at 54-46. State Rep. Eugene DePasquale (D) tweets at us that the 70-30 figure is correct.

12:03am: Ah well – the AP says John Boozman won’t face a runoff. Fortunately, the Dem runoff in Arkansas is in just three weeks, so we won’t face a prolonged exposure like we do in NC (six weeks).

12:02am: The clock’s struck midnight, and as we like to say around here, we’re getting down to stems and seeds, folks. The AP has called PA-03 (R) for Mike Kelly, who wins with 28% to Paul Huber’s 26%.

11:59pm: A moment ago, Bill Halter temporarily pulled into the lead (by 86 votes) over Blanche Lincoln. She’s back ahead now by some 1,400 votes, but it would be interesting if Halter finished the night ahead.

11:55pm: Following these PA races is a bit of a pain — the AP is updating at a sluggish pace compared to the DoS, but the DoS won’t tell us where any outstanding votes are. Still, between the two, we have some good news for Manan Trivedi. Trivedi leads Pike by 800 votes according to the latest DoS count. The latest AP count (91% of the vote) indicates that almost all of Chester County is in (where Pike romped by 67-33), with a few outstanding precincts in Montgomery County, where Trivedi beat Pike. Great news.

11:40pm: What else is still on the board? Well, John Boozman is desperately trying to avoid getting teabagged into a runoff – he’s at 51.2% now with 60% reporting. And things just got a LOT tighter in PA-06, where Manan Trivedi is at 50.7% to 49.3% for Doug Pike now.

11:35pm: AP calls the OR-Sen R primary for law professor Jim Huffman, even though he’s only at 42%; none of his many opponents broke 15%.

11:32pm: Now we’re getting down to just a handful of races left. AR-01 (D) is going to be a runoff between Tim Wooldridge and Chad Causey. AR-02 (D) will be a runoff between Joyce Elliott and Robbie Wills.

11:31pm: So three races left in Pennsylvania: PA-06, PA-03 (where 100% are reporting but the race is uncalled), and PA-17.

11:30pm: Looks like our friends down in PA-06 have returned from a phat ganja break – Trivedi now has 18,132 to Pike’s 15,521. The problem is that the PA SoS doesn’t say how many precincts are outstanding, and the AP is well behind the SoS. But I’m guessing we’re around 70-75% counted.

11:28pm: On the R side in OR-Gov, with 40% reporting (see how fast it goes when all the ballots are already in hand?), it’s Chris Dudley with the slam dunk, or at least the lightly-contested layup: he’s at 41, Allen Alley at 32, John Lim at 13, and Bill Sizemore proving you can still be competitive even after indictment, at 8.

11:24pm: Well, that was easy – the AP just called OR-Gov (D) for Kitz. Kinda gotta wonder why Bradbury never just got out of the way in the first place….

11:21 pm: Detouring down into the weeds in Oregon: the nonpartisan race for Superintendent of Public Instruction is being decided today, not in November, because only two people ran. The incumbent Susan Castillo (whomever everyone knows is the D) is beating Ron Maurer (the R) 55-45. Also, in the Treasurer primary, incumbent appointee Ted Wheeler is beating Rick Metsger 63-37.

11:16pm: ALERT! AR-Sen (D) will go to a run-off. And the tally (with 50% in) is a lot closer than polls suggested it was likely to be. Blanche Lincoln is at 43.5% and Bill Halter is at 42.3%.

11:15pm: In OR-01 (R), it’s Rob Cornilles 38, Douglas Keller 32, John Kuzmanich 28 with 36% in. In OR-05 (R), it’s Scott Bruun 59, “Not That” Fred Thompson 42 (23% in).

11:13pm: Miles to go before we sleep: Out in Oregon, John Kitzhaber is crushing Bill Bradbury in the Dem gov primary, 69-27, with 20% reporting. Chris Dudley has a 41-33 lead over Allen Alley on the GOP side.

11:01pm: So it looks like the PA SoS is further along than Politico. They show PA-06 already at 54-46 Trivedi.

11:00pm: Polls have just closed in Oregon.

10:58pm: Gonna guess run-off in AR-01 as well, where Tim Wooldridge leads Chad Causey 34-28.

10:57pm: With about a third in, Joye Elliott leads AR-02 over Robbie Wills, 36-33. Looks like there will be a runoff here.

10:53pm: Alright, the AP just called it for Tom Marino, who wins with an unspiring 42% or so. He’ll square off against Chris Carney in the fall.

10:50pm: Still some unsettled GOP primaries in Pennsylvania. PA-03: Mike Kelly has a narrow 29-26 lead over Paul Huber with all but 7% counted. PA-10: Tom Marino hanging on with 42% (87% counted). PA-17: Dave Argall at just 35 with Frank Ryan at 32, with 82% in.

10:47pm: So here’s a look at what’s going on: In AR-Sen, Lincoln is up just 44-42 over Halter with a third of the vote in. John Boozman keeps flirting with the 50% mark. In PA-06, Manan Trivedi is up 59-41 with half the vote in; our model shows a 54% victory for him.

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Polls will close in Oregon at 11pm Eastern. Let’s rock this party west coast style! Laiiiid back.

RESULTS:

• Arkansas: Associated Press | AR SoS | Politico
• Oregon: Associated Press | OregonLive | Politico
• Pennsylvania: Associated Press | PA SoS | Politico

  RESOURCES: SSP Election Preview

10:48pm: Calling all Swingnuts! Let’s make ’em hear us over here!

10:40pm: LOL – Tim Burns wins his primary, according to the AP. Lucky guy gets to face off again against Rep.-elect Mark Critz in November.

10:37pm: Check out AR-Sen – Lincoln is now down to 45-41 over Halter. DC Morrison is at a surprisingly sprightly 14% – a rare over-performance from pre-election polling for a classic “third wheel” candidate. A little over 27% of the vote is in. Also, John Boozman just slipped below the 50% mark, while Jim Holt! is in second place.

10:33pm: Also for what it’s worth, the Swing State Project is calling PA-12 for Democrat Mark Critz.

10:29pm: DRUDGE SIREN ALERT: In PA-12, Tim Burns has conceded to Democrat Mark Critz! Woo hoo!

10:26pm: Crossing off another race off this list, the AP has called PA-17 for Tim Holden, who’s sitting on 67% of the vote. On the GOP side, David Argall leads Frank Ryan by 35-33 with 79% of the vote in.

10:24pm: The AP calls PA-11 for Paul Kanjorski… The dude’s currently sitting at 50.1% of the vote. Not exactly a ringing vote of confidence!

10:22pm: In PA-04, the AP has called the race for attorney Keith Rothfus, who obliterated NRCC favorite Mary Beth Buchanan.

10:20pm: With 233 precincts reporting, Critz leads Burns by 54-43. Our county analysis tells us that Critz is running ahead of where he needs to be in order to win this.

10:19pm: The AP has called the Pennsylvania Democratic primary for Joe Sestak!

10:17pm: Possible upset special? In AR-02, Joyce Elliott is leading House Speaker Robbie Wills by 42-28 with just 7% in. (Of course, if no one hits 50%, this sucker is going to a runoff.)

10:15pm: The SSP team is projecting Joe Sestak to win his primary by around 79,000 votes.

10:08pm: The AP has called two GOP House races in Arkansas, even though only a small chunk of the vote has been counted. In AR-01, Rick Crawford gets the nod, and in AR-02, Tim Griffin does as well. Dem contests in both races are still very much undecided.

10:04pm: Damn, son – the AP calls KY-Sen for Jack Conway! Woohah!

10:02pm: With 5% now in, Blanche Lincoln is up 46-41 on Bill Halter, with DC Morrison taking 13%. John Boozman on the GOP side is at 53%, just outside of runoff territory.

10:01pm: PA-06: Manan Trivedi up 60-40 with 37% in.

10:00pm: On the GOP side in PA-17, semi-hyped David Argall is beating Frank Ryan 41-32 with a little over half the vote in. Tim Holden is at a much healthier 70-30 over Dow-Ford.

9:58pm: Rep. Todd Platts (PA-19), who we theorized might have pissed off the teabaggers by wanting to become head of the GAO, is handily dispatching his opponent 72-26 (with less than 10% of the vote in).

9:57pm: Was PA-12 more like NY-23 than we thought? Establishment fave Tim Burns is only leading angry outsider (and 2008 nominee) Bill Russell 54-46 in the primary.

9:56pm: The AP has called the PA-Gov Dem primary for (unsurprisingly) Dan Onorato. He’ll take on Tom Corbett in the fall.

9:52pm: In PA-03, it’s a dogfight between the two dudes who spent the most money: Mike Kelly’s at 29% and Paul Huber’s at 28%, though Huber lead earlier. About 44%’s been counted.

9:51pm: With 40% of the vote in, Sestak now has a narrow lead over Specter, 51-49. But Specter isn’t winning many counties, and the remaining vote seems favorable to the challenger.

9:50pm: Mark Critz is doing well in PA-12. He’s up 58-40 with 21% reporting. Much of that is from Dem-friendly areas, but our model shows him improving 1.3% over recent Dem performance in the district.

9:48pm: Over in PA-10, hyped GOP recruit Tom Marino is leading, but with a pretty blechy 43% (27% counted). He has two opponents, though, who are splitting the remainder, so this may be good enough.

9:46pm: PA-06: With 10% in, SSP favorite Manan Trivedi is up 63-37 over Doug Pike. Let’s pray that holds!

9:43pm: A bunch more votes have poured in in PA-17, and Tim Holden is now on top 61-39 with around a quarter tallied. Still pretty meager, considering Dow-Ford has spent zilch.

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Results are still coming in at a fast and furious clip in Arkansas, Kentucky and Pennsylvania. We’ll have Oregon results up later — 11pm-ish.

RESULTS:

• Arkansas: Associated Press | AR SoS | Politico
• Kentucky: Associated Press | KY SoS | Politico
• Pennsylvania: Associated Press | PA SoS | Politico | PA-12 Special

RESOURCES: SSP Election Preview | PA-12 maps

9:43pm: We’re just chewin’ ’em up and spitting ’em out, huh? Let’s move this conversation over here.

9:34pm: So our model is still liking Conway, to the tune of 7,700 votes. Serious squeaker, though.

9:27pm: I’m gonna guess Paul Kanjorski will hang on. With 28% in, he has 53% of the vote, while the once-touted Corey O’Brien is barely ahead of no-name Brian Kelly, 25-22. Numbers look rather like the IL-03 primary against Dan Lipinski in 2008.

9:25pm: I’m loving it – Keith Rothfus is absolutely hammering GOP establishment fave Mary Beth Buchanan, 64-36 with 25% reporting in PA-04.

9:23pm: 19% reporting in PA now, and Specter leads Sestak by 52-48.

9:20pm: With 25 precincts in, Mark Critz leads Burns by 59-39. These are some Dem-friendly precincts though, but Critz is holding down decent margins here based on our model.

9:17pm: With 3068 precincts in, Conway leads by only 45-42 (or just over 12K votes), but jeffmd is currently projecting Conway to win by 8,000.

9:15pm: Wow, look at Dem Rep. Tim Holden. With 18 precincts in, the guy’s getting spanked by 59-41.

9:13pm: 17 precincts are now in for PA-12, and Critz leads Burns by 59-38. This is fairly Dem-friendly turf, though.

9:10pm: Our latest projection has Conway ultimately winning by something around 4,000 votes.

9:09pm: 2846 precincts are now in, and Conway is now back up over 20,000.

9:05pm: With 2805 precincts in, Conway’s lead has dipped just below 20,000 votes. Our projection is still pointing to a 44-44 result.

9:03pm: Specter’s up by 58-42 with just 7% in.

9:00pm: 2751 precincts are reporting in Kentucky (leaving 824 on the table), and Conway’s up by 46-41, or just over 20,000 votes.

8:59pm: Heh — with just 7 precincts reporting in Arkansas, DC Morrison has 18%, and Halter leads Lincoln by 42-40.

8:54pm: Hoo boy — the abacus crew at SSP World HQ tells me that the latest projection shows a 44-44 race in Kentucky, with Conway winning a squeaker by 3,000 votes. However, we admit that our methods are crude.

8:50pm: Back in Kentucky, with 2654 precincts in (out of 3575), Conway still leads by 47-41 — or just under 22,000 votes.

8:47pm: You can also find the PA-12 special election results buried far down this page. They have Critz up by 59-41 in the single precinct reporting.

8:45pm: For PA-12 special election results, keep this link handy. Lots of other links are showing the primary nums.

8:43pm: We’re now up to 2377 precincts in Kentucky, and Conway leads Mongiardo by 47-41 (or about 23,000 votes).

8:41pm: KY-Sen turnout (so far): 328K voters in Dem primary, 212K in the GOP primary.

8:40pm: 2281, and it’s tightened to 47-40.

8:36pm: We’ve got 2237 precincts outta the oven in KY, and Conway still leads by 48-40. (Just 36 uncounted Jeffco counties, for those keeping score, though Conway is doing well enough in some of the smaller counties, too.)

8:32pm: The polls have just closed in Arkansas.

8:30pm: With 4 precincts reporting in PA, Sestak leads Specter by 131 votes to 114.

8:28pm: We’ve got two competing spreadsheets running by the eggheads at SSP Labs. One is projecting a 45-43 Conway win — the other a 46-42 Conway win.

8:25pm: 2009 precincts are now in, and Conway’s still sitting at 48-40. That includes almost all of Fayette County now, where Conway won by 52-38.

8:23pm: The boys down at SSP Labs tell me that Conway is, very crudely, projected to win by 45-43 right now. Variations in turnout could muck that one up, though.

8:21pm: 1845 precincts in — over half of the vote now — and Conway leads Mongiardo by 48-40. There’s only 60 precincts left in Jeffco to count, while Fayette still has 91 precincts taking a ganja break.

8:18pm: Hmmm — some voters were accidentally given two ballots in PA-12. Well, let’s hope that this one doesn’t come down to 178 votes!

8:15pm: 1703 precincts are now in, and Conway’s up by 48-39.

8:11pm: For whatever it’s worth, our crude back-of-the-envelope analysis has switched from predicting a Mongiardo win to a Conway victory. Conway’s also posting a narrow lead in Daviess County, home of Owensboro.

8:09pm: 1614 precincts are in, and Conway is holding onto his 49-39 lead over Mongiardo.

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Polls have just closed in Pennsylvania. We’re still tracking the results in KY-Sen (D) and will bring you PA results as soon as they roll in. Arkansas (8:30pm ET) and Oregon (11pm ET) close later.

RESULTS:

• Arkansas: Associated Press | AR SoS | Politico
• Kentucky: Associated Press | KY SoS | Politico
• Pennsylvania: Associated Press | PA SoS | Politico | PA-12 Special

RESOURCES: SSP Election Preview | PA-12 maps

Maybe we can’t quite call it the “Super Tuesday” of congressional primary days, but based on the gravity of some of the races that will be decided this week, it wouldn’t be far off the mark. Two Democratic incumbent Senators are embroiled in stiff primary fights, and the outcome of both party primaries in Kentucky’s Senate race will weigh heavily on the competitiveness of that seat in November. All told, there are 28 elections worth watching today (by our count), with the promise of run-offs in Arkansas on June 8 if no candidate achieves a majority of the vote in their respective races. Also on tap for the weekend is the special election to replace Dem Rep. Neil Abercrombie in Hawaii’s 1st District, which is shaping up to be a disaster of Abercrombie’s making.

Arkansas:

• AR-Sen (D): Polling seems to indicate that the odds of Bill Halter coming out ahead of two-term incumbent Blanche Lincoln as falling somewhere between slim and none, but the presence of Paulist weirdo D.C. Morrison on the Democratic ticket may draw enough votes away from Lincoln to force a runoff in June. Outside groups have already spent millions on this race; labor has lined solidly behind Halter while Chamber of Commerce-types have funneled significant resources behind Lincoln, telling you everything you need to know about the ideological fault lines of this primary battle. If a runoff becomes a reality, expect this race to find yet another gear.
• AR-Sen (R): Again, first place isn’t at all in question here. GOP Rep. John Boozman’s superior name recognition has given him a big edge on the other seven dwarves of the GOP field. What is at stake, though, is whether or not Boozman (like Lincoln) can avoid a resource-draining runoff, and if not, which Republican contender will advance to the next round along with him. Boozman has stayed close to the 50% mark in recent polling, with ex-state Sen. Jim Holt (the GOP’s ’04 nominee against Lincoln) and state Sen. Gilbert Baker clawing for second place.
• AR-01 (D): With Marion Berry hitting the exits, four Dems have lined up to replace him, making a runoff a safe bet. Ex-state Sen. Tim Wooldridge, a pretty conservative dude who lost a runoff for Lt. Governor in 2006 to Bill Halter, is seen as the front-runner — a notion confirmed by the lone poll we’ve seen of this race. However, Berry’s ex-Chief of Staff, Chad Causey, leads the money race, and state Sen. Steve Bryles has raised six figures, too. State Rep. David Cook, who is probably the most liberal choice in this race (he favors the public option, according to his campaign site) is also the least well-funded, pulling in just $54,000 through the end of April.
• AR-01 (R): Republicans made a lot of noise about stealing Berry’s seat after he announced his retirement decision, but that sense of optimism didn’t result in an upgrade in terms of candidate recruitment. Radio broadcaster Rick Crawford started his race off slowly, but has begun to pick up the pace after Berry hit the exits, and that may be enough to make this a very competitive contest in November. The only candidate to join him the Republican primary is Princella Smith, a former aide to future ex-Rep. Joe Cao. Smith has proven to be something of a dud, only raising $67K for her primary against Crawford.
• AR-02 (D): The primary to replace retiring Rep. Rick Snyder is a pretty interesting one, with state House Speaker Robbie Wills seemingly leading the way in terms of November electability and insider connections, and state Sen. Joyce Elliott enjoying the support of the district’s liberal base. Snyder’s former Chief of Staff, David Boling, is also in the race and has raised nearly as much as Wills, so his presence can’t be overlooked, either. The Dem field is rounded out by former Clinton School of Public Service programming director Patrick Kennedy and assistant Attorney General John Adams, both of whom have not raised much money are not expected to win a significant share of the vote.
• AR-02 (R): Rove acolyte and ex-US Attorney Tim Griffin is expected to win this primary pretty easily, seeing as how he’s been out-raising Little Rock restaurateur Scott Wallace by a 6-to-1 margin. Wallace, however, tied Griffin at 20-20 in an early April poll of the race, and enjoys the backing of Mike Huckabee.
• AR-03 (R): Good luck sorting through this orgy of teabaggery. A whopping eight Republicans are duking it out for the right to succeed John Boozman in the House, pretty much guaranteeing that this sucker is going to a runoff in June. That early April Talk Business poll suggested that we’re looking at a three-way race between state Sen. Cecile Bledsoe, Rogers Mayor Steve Womack, and the aptly-named ex-state Sen. Gunner DeLay, but ex-DEA official Steve Lowry, businessman Kurt Maddox, and ex-state Rep. Doug Matayo could also compete.

Hawaii:

• HI-01 (Special): There’s not a whole lot that need be said about this crazy-ass jungle election, where Republican Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou looks poised to steal this seat. He of course faces off against state Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa and ex-Rep. Ed Case, who used to represent the state’s other CD. The one final point I do want to make is that I blame this all on Neil Abercrombie. Had he not resigned unexpectedly, we’d never have wound up on this situation. I can appreciate that campaigning for the governorship of Hawaii when you are needed in D.C. can be quite a tiring task, especially for a septuagenarian. But Abercrombie knew he wanted to run long ago. He should either have stuck out his term, or not have stood for re-election in 2008. (DavidNYC)

Kentucky:

• KY-Sen (D): The Big One. While the tradmed seems to neglect this race in favor of seemingly shinier objects like Arlen Specter’s primary in Pennsylvania or Rand Paul’s surprising strength among Kentucky Republicans, the Democratic primary is the true race to watch out of Kentucky tonight. 2004 nominee and current Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo had enjoyed a consistent and seemingly impenetrable lead against state AG Jack Conway, the candidate with less baggage to exploit in the general election. However, recent polls have suggested that Conway is coming on strong in the home stretch of this campaign, perhaps making the race a dead heat. Research 2000 had Conway pulling within three points while SUSA only had Conway down by one. This one should be tight.
• KY-Sen (R): This one shouldn’t be tight. You know things are bad when Trey Grayson is whining like a DUMBocrat about Fox News’ apparent preferential treatment of Rand Paul. Despite the best efforts of Mitch McConnell and Dick Cheney, it looks like the teabaggers are poised to make a major victory tonight, as Paul leads by 18 points in the latest poll of this race. A Paul win today will make this a fascinating race in the fall — one that could potentially yield some major GOP headaches.
• KY-03 (R): Republicans are truly leaving no stone unturned in their quest to take back the House, and have a couple of warm bodies to take on two-term Dem Rep. John Yarmuth. Jeffrey Reetz, some guy who owns 25 Pizza Hut franchises, is facing off against Air Force vet Todd Lally. Both of these guys have raised six figures for their campaigns.
• KY-06 (R): After rocking his GOP opponent by 30 points in 2008, Ben Chandler has attracted a pack of mouth-breathers this time around, two of whom are somewhat well-funded. Attorney Andy Barr has been in the race the longest, and has raised over $400K. Retired coal executive Mike Templeman is his chief competition, while four other Republicans have only managed to raise chump change for the primary and are expected to be non-factors tonight.

Oregon:

• OR-Gov (D): The main story on May 18 in Oregon may be the 30th anniversary of the eruption of Mt. St. Helens, as there’s been little activity that would qualify as volcanic in either party’s open seat gubernatorial primary. The Democratic primary has been a low-key and civil contest between two long-time friends, former Governor John Kitzhaber (termed out after two terms in 2002, but angling for a return) and former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury. Bradbury has big endorsers in his corner (Al Gore, Howard Dean) and gotten local progressives revved up by running to Kitzhaber’s left, but polling gives a wide edge to Kitz. (Crisitunity)
• OR-Gov (R): After bigger names like Greg Walden and Jason Atkinson passed, the question in the GOP primary was whether anybody other than Allen Alley, a former high-tech CEO who lost the 2008 Treasurer race, was going to show up at all. Eventually Chris Dudley, a former Portland Trail Blazers center from the 1990s, showed up and immediately assumed front-runner status simply by virtue of name rec and money. Most polling has given a lead to Dudley, but Alley seems to be closing in on him, thanks in part to Dudley’s (very large) empty-suit-ishness. Both are from the moderate end of the GOP; the more conservative options, ex-state Sen. John Lim and anti-tax initiative grifter Bill Sizemore, are there mostly to provide comic relief. (C)
• OR-01 (R): Sports industry consultant Rob Cornilles seems to have piqued the NRCC’s interest, as they’ve touted him as the man to take down Democratic Rep. David Wu in this D+8 suburban district. Before he can tackle Wu, though, he has to survive the GOP primary. Stephan Brodhead attracted some attention with his large bankroll, but SurveyUSA‘s poll of the primary indicates the main rival to Cornilles is teabagging mortgage broker John Kuzmanich. (C)
• OR-05 (R): Similarly, the NRCC has its favorite pony in the 5th: state Rep. Scott Bruun, a moderate from the wealthy suburban portion of this somewhat rural district. There was some brief hubbub that Bruun was vulnerable to a challenge from Tea Party-aligned retired businessman Fred Thompson (no, not that Fred Thompson), but SurveyUSA recently found that Bruun is on track to nail down the nomination. (C)

Pennsylvania:

• PA-Sen (D): The big kahuna. For a long time, a lot of observers (myself included) wondered when – or even if – Rep. Joe Sestak would go on the attack against the party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter. Well, Sestak’s certainly proved all the doubters very wrong. Polls are as tight as can be, and while he may not pull it off in the end, Sestak seems to have timed things perfectly. This should be quite the barnburner. (D)
• PA-Gov (D): A funny thing happened on the way to the primary: After a year of desultory polling showing pretty much all candidates in the teens and single digits, Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato completely pulled away from the pack. According to Pollster’s trendlines, Jack Wagner, Anthony Williams, and Joe Hoeffel are all still mired in nowheresville, so unless a lot of polling is very wrong, Onorato will be the Dem gubernatorial nominee. (D)
• PA-03 (R): There’s a crowded field to take on freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, but only two dudes have shown serious scratch – and both because they’re self-funders: retired businessman Paul Huber, who raised $200K and loaned himself another $300K, and auto dealer and ex-city councilman Mike Kelly, who lent himself $165K on top of $80K in individual contributions. Other wannabes include Cochranton insurance agent Steven Fisher, teabagger Clayton Grabb, physician Martha Moore, and Some Dude Ed Franz, who have all raised about $30K or less. Both Huber and Kelly have been on the air with TV advertisements. A big question is whether Huber’s fundraising edge will outweigh the fact that he was a registered Democrat for 33 years – and only switched parties in 2008. (D)
• PA-04 (R): When Bush-era US Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan (one of the names that kept cropping up in the US Attorney firings scandal) got into the race, Beltway pundits seemed to think the GOP primary would be a mere formality for her before posing a strong challenge to Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire in this R+6 district in Pittsburgh’s suburbs. They didn’t count on one thing: Buchanan’s apparent ineptitude at jumping from legal practice to electoral politics. We don’t have any polls to go by, but her anti-establishment opponent, attorney Keith Rothfus has outraised her and is certainly making fewer unforced errors. (C)
• PA-06 (D): This race pits an SSP fave, physician and veteran Manan Trivedi, against someone we simply aren’t very fond of, newspaper publisher Doug Pike. But putting aside our personal preferences, what’s going to happen here? It’s hard to say, especially since we haven’t seen any polls. Pike, thanks to massive donations from himself totaling more than a million dollars, has a big money edge. He’s also gotten his share of labor endorsements, though Trivedi has scored some of his own, as well as the backing of some key county committees. I’m rooting for Trivedi, to be sure, but I think he has an uphill fight against Pike’s bucks. (D)
• PA-10 (R): Here’s another district where the GOP thought a former US Attorney would be just what the doctor ordered, and they didn’t quite get what they thought. Tom Marino was their hyped pick for the race, but questions about Marino’s relationship with sketchy developer Louis DeNaples have loomed large over his campaign. Marino’s fundraising has been subpar as well; what is likely to help him pull it out in the primary is that his anti-establishment opposition is split, with Snyder Co. Commissioner Malcolm Derk his most prominent foe. (C)
• PA-11 (D): Even though there’s a long-long-time Democratic incumbent here, Rep. Paul Kanjorski, the primary is on the Democratic side, rather than for the GOP (where 2008 opponent Lou Barletta is on tap for a rematch). Up-and-coming Lackawanna Co. Commissioner Corey O’Brien is taking on Kanjorski. While he has only a fraction of Kanjorski’s money, he’s trying to outhustle the crusty Kanjorski on the ground, and also making electability arguments about the incumbent, who barely beat Barletta in the much-more favorable 2008. Without any polling, it’s hard to guess whether we’re looking at a WV-01-style unplanned retirement for Kanjorski. (C)
• PA-12 (Special): This, by rights, should be the main event tonight, as it’s the only Democrat vs. Republican matchup anywhere. It has all the makings of a dead heat, not only in terms of polling (most recently a 1-point lead for Republican Tim Burns over Democrat Mark Critz, according to PPP), but also the lay of the land. It’s an historically Democratic district with a huge registration advantage, but it’s trending in the Republican direction as district’s aged population gets its marching orders from Fox News instead of the union hall now. Much has been made of how this R+1 district was the nation’s only one to go from backing Kerry in 2004 to McCain in 2008. Critz’s close ties to John Murtha, and the fact that the special coincides with the hotly contested Democratic Senate primary, may help Dems win the day, though. (C)
• PA-12 (D/R): The regularly scheduled primary elections in the 12th for November are also on the same day as the special. While it’s likely that, whatever the special election outcome, Mark Critz and Tim Burns will be facing each other again in the general, that’s not guaranteed. Critz is likely to beat Ryan Bucchanieri on the Dem side, but Burns is facing a tough challenge from Bill Russell and leading only narrowly according to a recent Susquehanna poll. Russell, who was passed over by the state party for the nomination, was the 2008 candidate; he’s best known as frontman for direct-mail scammers BaseConnect, and as such, has had enough money for TV ads. Could we see a Neil Abercrombie-type result where Burns wins a special and loses a primary on the same day? (C)
• PA-17 (D/R): Most observers expect November to be a matchup of long-time incumbent Democratic Rep. Tim Holden, and top-tier-ish GOP recruit state Sen. David Argall. Both, however, have primaries to get through first. Holden faces Democratic activist Sheila Dow-Ford, who’s attacking him over his anti-HCR vote. Meanwhile, Argall (vulnerable over the issue of legislative pay raises) is barely keeping his head above water against fractured opposition, led by veteran Frank Ryan, who’s had some surprising fundraising success. (C)
• PA-19 (R): This has the potential to be a surprise: Rep. Todd Platts is an unusually moderate Republican given the R+12 lean of this rural district, and he’s also painted a target on his own back by publicly expressing interest on getting out of that job and moving over to head the Government Accountability Office instead. Opponent Mike Smeltzer is hoping to use that as a basis for giving Platts a good teabagging. (C)