Tag: Redistricting

This diary presents potential redistricting maps for Michigan, North Carolina, and Illinois. It also carries the ulterior motive of the following bleg:

I’ve started working on two related projects for Michigan for Dave’s App. I’m collating partisan data and renaming the voting districts by municipality name and precinct number. (Currently, Michigan’s voting districts are named using a 14 digit code.) I could use the following three forms of help:

1. I need a precinct map for the city of Detroit. This is looking ahead a bit, because Detroit is the final portion of the state I intend to work on, but it would really help. My Google-fu has failed me thus far.

2. In order to enable collaboration (see third form below), I need to figure out how to get the lines in my copy of vt26_d00.csv sorted by county and voting district number. The vt26_d00_data.csv file is already sorted like this, but its counterpart is somewhat helter-skelter. The solution that occured to me was to try sorting it using OpenOffice Calc (my only spreadsheet program), but that immediately lost leading zeroes, which breaks the CSV file. Any ideas out there?

3. Actual collaboration in collating and renaming. I’m currently going through the counties alphabetically. After two-ish weeks of sporadic effort, I just finished the H’s with Huron County. (On to Lansing’s Ingham County next!) That’s about 19% of the state population. Doing Flint’s Genessee County took most of the day yesterday, and I’m fairly frightened of Kent/Macomb/Oakland/Washtenaw/Wayne. Even if you’re just interested in helping with some of the smaller, easier counties, I’d be grateful. If you’re willing and interested, send me an email at my user name at gmail.com so that I can send you information about the conventions I’ve been using. Also, post a comment letting me know you emailed me — it’s a secondary email that I don’t otherwise check.

After the jump, you’ll see the following forms of actual content to assuage my conscience from this bleg:

Michigan: what my partisan map progress looks like so far and a potential Republican gerrymander (an abgin-esque atrocity by Michigan standards)

North Carolina: a Republican map that packs five Democratic incumbents into two districts

Illinois: an oxymoronic “good government” map of Illinois — I’m posting it mostly to show that two majority Hispanic districts in Chicago are easily created and to show off an particular idea for a reconfigured 17th district.

Michigan Partisan Progress So Far

Michigan Republican Gerrymander

Michigan redistricting law heavily discourages county and municipality splitting. This map probably looks tame by most states’ standards, but it’s basically an abgin-esque “finding the limits” map by ours.

The Detroit-Ann Arbor-Flint CMSA

This map has its origins in a comment — I don’t recall which thread — that posited an I-75 district linking together Kildee and Peters. This is my attempt to make that district and show its consequences.

I started by painting in all of Genessee County (I really don’t think you can get away with having a district consisting of only portions of three different counties.) Then I painted in the bare minimum number of people to take in Saginaw City from Saginaw County — no GOP plan is going to saddle one of their representatives with Saginaw. Finally, I snaked down through Oakland County, taking heavily Democratic Pontiac and Peter’s home area of Bloomfield /Bloomfield Hills.  That, as it turns out, is a district. So I started working other districts around it.

End result: Peter’s 9th district has been eliminated by trisection. Its eastern third is now in Miller’s 10th, its central third is in Kildee’s 5th, its western third is in McCotter’s 11th.

I won’t dissect the districts in detail, but suffice it to say that I think this is a fairly successful Detroit-area map for the GOP. McCotter gets majorly shored-up (although he might at primary risk from an Oakland-based politican), Miller probably washes out in trading the Thumb for eastern Oakland, and Peters gets the short end of the reapportionment stick.

Taking a look statewide…

… there are some interesting repercussions, mostly favorable to the Republicans. Starting with one of the pieces of bad news, however, with the 5th and 10th sucked down into the Detroit area, the 4th is forced to cover the Thumb. Dave Camp becomes an incumbent in-name only, with only his home county of Midland and the western portion of Saginaw County overlapping between his current district and this one. I would guess that this district is at least as Republican as his current one, but I’m not entirely sure.

With the 4th swinging east, the 1st gets to pick up the Republican-leaning Traverse City area, mildly shoring up Benishek. The 2nd and 3rd also get pulled north by the 4th’s relocation. That, in turn, allows Upton to take in all of Republican Allegan County and Walberg to newly acquire heavily Republican Barry County — a significant upgrade for him that I’ve been otherwise unable to find. I’m genuinely unsure about how the changes to Roger’s 8th district pan out — he loses Republican northern Oakland, and gains some swingy territory in central Michigan along with fairly Republican (I think) Ionia County.

Summary: This map definitly eliminates a Democratic incumbent. I think it also shores up four Republican incumbents while severely inconveniencing another, with the effects on yet another being unknown.

North Carolina Republican Gerrymander

This map has its origins in SaoMagnifico’s recent Wyoming Rule diary on North Carolina. While composing a counter-suggestion to his proposed map, I discovered that there’s a significant African American population in and around Fayetteville. I’ve seen some insisting that this population could be linked with Raleigh’s to produce a new VRA-seat. My attempts at drawing that district while preserving the current 1st have failed, but it turned out to work well when linked with Charlotte’s African-American population instead.

This is a 7-4-2 Republican/Democratic/swing map.

A quick run-through:

The 1st district (blue) stays more or less in place. VRA: 49% black, 44% white (is this kosher?). 2008: Obama 62%, McCain 37%.

The 2nd district (green) shifts substantially west. Still contains all of Ellmer’s (and Etheridge’s) Harnett County. 2008: McCain 56%, Obama 43%.

The 3rd district (purple) now hugs the coast all the way down to (and including) Wilmington. Incumbent Jones is (barely) drawn outside the lines, but I’ve been told he’s outside the lines already. 2008: McCain 57%, Obama 42%.

The 4th district (red) packs Price and Miller into one uber-Democratic (majority-white) district. 2008: Obama 73%, McCain 26%.

The 5th district (yellow) continues to hug the northwest corner of the state. Foxx now lives in her district. 2008: McCain 60%, Obama 38%.

The 6th district (teal) shifts west. This is kind of like a bizzaro-12th, covering broadly similar territory between Charlotte and Greensboro, but with the intention of being a Republican district instead of an African-American gerrymander. Coble still lives here, I think. If not, he’s close. 2008: McCain 56%, Obama 43%.

The 7th district (grey) is still in the southeast corner of the state, reaching north into the eastern parts of the old 2nd — but it’s been reconfigured to exclude incumbent McIntyre. 2008: McCain 56%, Obama 43%.

The 8th district (slate blue) is the center-piece of this plan. It strings together all three of Watt, Kissell, and McIntyre into a minority-majority district. VRA: 41% black, 35% white, 13% Hispanic. 2008: Obama 66%, McCain 33%.

The 9th district (cyan) now lies exclusively east of Charlotte. So far as I know, Myrick still lives in the district. 2008: McCain 55%, Obama 44%.

The 10th district (magenta) pulls in closer to Charlotte. 2008: McCain 59%, Obama 40%.

The 11th district (lime) stays in place. 2008: McCain 52%, Obama 46%.

The 12th district (cornflower) is a (majority white) Democratic new open seat in the Triad. Effectively, the Republicans get rid of both of McIntyre and Kissell and replace them with a Triad-area Democrat. 2008: Obama 60%, McCain 38%.

The 13th district (salmon) is a swing(!) district surrounding the Triangle. 2008: McCain 50%, Obama 49%.

If not screwing with Shuler is something you can’t see the Republicans doing, here’s an area map for the changes necessary:

(Please ignore the 5th changing colors.]

New stats

5th:  56 Mc / 42 Ob

10th: 57 Mc / 42 Ob

11th: 58 Mc / 42 Ob

Illinois Good-Government Redistricting

This map was drawn to avoid splitting counties and muncipalities — an idea I support in the abstract if not necessarily in practice. I won’t go into detail at all about it, because I don’t feel like I understand Illinois well enough. But I wanted to draw attention to two features to see what people think who do understand Illinois politics. (The 11th and 16th — both green — can be hard to distinguish. DeKalb, LaSalle, and points east are in the 11th.)

Feature one: Here’s the VRA statistics for most of the Cook County districts.

1st (blue) — white 39%, black 53%

2nd (green) — white 26%, black 58%, Hispanic 10%

3rd (purple) — white 75%, Hispanic 16%

4th (red) — white 25%, black 12%, Hispanic 59%

5th (yellow) — white 32%, Hispanic 51%

7th (grey) — white 29%, black 53%, Hispanic 16%

9th (cyan) — white 66%, Asian 13%, Hispanic 12%

Actual census numbers may change this, of course, but 2 VRA Hispanic district seem possible with a miminum of fuss.

Feature two: Note district 17 [dark blue] in the whole-state map above. It links together the Quad Cities, Bloomington-Normal, and Champaign-Urbana. Is this a workable Democratic district?

If not — I’ve gotten the impression that Bloomington-Normal is fairly Republican for a mid-sized city — how about this, which substitutes in Decatur?

Under the Wyoming Rule, Tennessee would increase its share of districts to an impressive round dozen. But while the Volunteer State was once a swing state, it has become solidly Republican, at least for the time being. It remains unclear whether the wing of the party represented by the relatively moderate Sen. Corker or the wing of the party represented by Lt. Gov. Ramsey, who called Islam a “cult” during the primary campaign, will win in the battle for the soul of the Tennessee Republican Party, and whether the victor may determine where the fickle electorate lurches next.

As it rests now, though, Tennessee Republicans could force a 9-3 map under Wyoming Rule redistricting, and the only reason why they could not draw a 10-2 map is the Voting Rights Act.

TN-01 (safe Republican)

Rep. Phil Roe’s district just loses a few counties.

TN-02 (likely Republican)

Rep. Jimmy Duncan’s district is now consolidated around Knoxville.

TN-03 (safe Republican)

Rep.-elect Charles Fleischmann gets a nice safe district that looks a lot less disgusting than outgoing Rep. Zach Wamp’s current oddly shaped district.

TN-04 (safe Republican)

No longer Rep.-elect Scott DesJarlais’s district, this Republican-friendly open seat is leftovers from the first three.

TN-05 (safe Republican)

A partial successor to Rep.-elect Diane Black’s TN-07, this district contains her Gallatin residence and is thus her seat, for all intents and purposes. It has nothing to do with the safe Democratic district in Nashville, represented by Rep. Jim Cooper. On the contrary, this seat is safe Republican.

TN-06 (safe Republican)

Just as the previous district provided a natural home for Rep.-elect Black, DesJarlais’s gutted TN-04 is effectively replaced by this smaller district. Middle Tennessee is fertile ground for Republicans, and DesJarlais should be fine here.

TN-07 (likely Republican)

This district, which contains the home of outgoing Democratic Rep. Bart Gordon, is an open seat that leans Republican due to the territory. If Gordon runs, he might be able to win it, but it’s pretty conservative territory for the most part.

TN-08 (safe Democratic)

Team Blue finally gets on the board, with this successor to Cooper’s TN-05 solidly Democratic with its territory nibbled down to the center of Davidson County.

TN-09 (likely Republican)

With Democratic Rep. David Tanner history, Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn (currently of TN-07) gets a less stupid-looking district. She should be established enough to win even though it includes a bit more of Democratic-leaning Davidson County than before.

TN-10 (safe Republican)

This western district, which includes pieces of the current TN-07 and much of the current TN-08, is an open seat that any Republican should be able to win.

TN-11 (safe Democratic)

As VRA districts go, these aren’t very stringent. This partial successor to TN-09, represented by Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen, is 51% African American, 41% white. I don’t know if Cohen lives here, but it should be safe for Democrats.

TN-12 (likely Democratic)

I screwed over Rep.-elect Stephen Fincher, who looks like a liability for the GOP in Tennessee right now anyway, and plopped him into a coalition VRA district, which is 47% white, 46% African American, and 100% problematic for Republicans. Sen. John McCain of Arizona carried Tipton County in 2008, but only won Lauderdale County by a few points, while then-Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois won big in Shelby and Haywood counties. Fincher could win it with a great campaign, but he doesn’t seem to run great campaigns.

Thoughts, either on the map or on the Wyoming Rule?

Republicans had a great night in Pennsylvania this November, which makes drawing a decent map for them really hard.

The problem for them is, fundamentally, that they won in all the wrong places. They knocked off Carney and Kanjorski, whereas if they’d taken only one of them they could have packed the survivor’s district and used the redder bits of his district to make Charlie Dent a little later. They held PA-6 and took back PA-7 and PA-8, meaning that it’s that much harder to protect their representatives in the suburban Philadelphia area, whereas if the Dems had held one seat then it would have been possible to shift the other districts further from the city.

And they didn’t knock off Critz or Altmire, meaning that they’ll have to work a little harder to give them unwinnable districts.

All in all, they’d have a lot more options for the coming redistricting if they’d won a few less districts and if more of them had been in western PA.

But what’s done is done. Republicans can enjoy their gains for now and they’ll just have to work to try to keep them – because there’s no way they’ll willingly concede seats in the next redistricting.

This map is an attempt to strengthen the Republican freshmen and to eliminate the last two Democratic representative in western Pennsylvania outside Pittsburgh. By giving Tim Holden a reasonably strong Democratic district, it frees up enough red territory to give the Republicans a fighting chance of a 13-5 advantage out of the state.

But this is not without risk. McCain got beaten by ten points in Pennsylvania and five Republicans in this new map will represent districts he lost. If they all flipped, Democrats would have a 10-8 advantage out of the state. If Joe Pitts can’t adapt to his new district, it could be as bad as 11-7.

On the other hand, it’s almost impossible to defend all twelve Republican congressmen in the state effectively. This map improves the prospects of each Republican in a district Obama won by at least four points net. I won’t pretend this map doesn’t have weaknesses, but it’s probably the best the Republicans can do.

As an added challenge, I endeavoured to keep townships together, as I don’t think the advantage gained by splitting them outweighs the negative press received for doing so. This doesn’t apply in Philadelphia, as the Republicans have no reason to care about a backlash there.

I would have like to be able to give Sestak-Toomey results, as it’d establish how safe these seats would be in a good year (i.e. if Joe Pitts’ district would still have been a bit marginal this year then he might be in trouble either way), but sadly not all counties have put up results by precinct yet. Most have, but several important ones like Montgomery and Erie haven’t, so sadly we lack that method of double-checking.

PA-1

Incumbent: Bob Brady

Population	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian
684861	35	50	8	5

	Obama %	McCain %
Old lines	88	12
New lines	87	12
% change	-1%	+0%

Like I said, redistricting isn’t going to be as much fun for the Republicans as it might have been. If they want to enjoy themselves, they’ll have to make their own entertainment.

In this map I represented that by drawing the new PA-1 as minority-majority (which the Republicans would be mad not to try for, as with no retrogression they can create two Democratic vote sinks that will be almost impossible to eliminate).

I also noted that according to his candidate petitions Bob Brady lives in Ward 34 Precinct 34, which is on the very western edge of West Philadelphia. I therefore slipped it into Allyson Schwartz’s district.

Now, Bob Brady is quite capable of moving a few blocks back into the district, assuming election law actually requires him to. And he’s represented a minority-majority district for long enough that making it 50% black won’t have him quaking in his boots. But still, Republicans have to get their giggles somehow. And spite is the gift that keeps on giving.

The district itself is somewhat less interesting. It keeps its strip through southern Delaware County to Chester, as well as the areas of Darby, Yeadon and Sharon Hill, and combines these these with south, west and central Philadelphia, together with portions of north Philly and much of Kensington.

PA-2

Incumbent: Chaka Fattah

Population	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian
685048	34	50	10	3

	Obama %	McCain %
Old lines	90	10
New lines	88	12
% change	-2%	+2%

Chaka Fattah is harder to draw out, so Republicans will have to settle for just giving him the biggest district in the state population-wise.

There’s very little to say about this district. It narrowly remains above 50% black and takes in the rest of Philadelphia, bar small portions of the Northeast and Northwest. Much of it is new to Fattah, but I can’t imagine him facing too many problems with it.

PA-3 (was PA-13)

Incumbent: Allyson Schwartz, Bob Brady, Patrick Murphy

Population	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian
681192	83	8	3	4

	Obama %	McCain %
Old lines	59	41
New lines	64	35
% change	+5%	-6%

It’d be much easier to pack the Democratic vote if the Philadelphia suburbs hadn’t elected so many Republicans this year. As a result, the task is largely left to Schwartz, who gets a district that’s absolutely safe in the hope she doesn’t get ideas like running for governor any time soon.

I’ve renumbered the districts, because if you’re going to gerrymander you should at least care enough to cover your tracks by numbering the districts in a vaguely logical order (even if my order does involve flying betwen north and south Pennsylvania like a fairground ride.)

The district keeps its core in southern Montgomery County and Northeast Philadelphia, although much of northern Montgomery is moved elsewhere. To this it adds Northwest Philadelphia west of Wissahickon Creek and north of Cresheim Creek, plus Bensalem southern parts of Levitttown in Bucks County. In doing so, it also mops up the home of Patrick Murphy, in an attempt to keep him out of Fitzpatrick’s hair.

PA-4 (was PA-8)

Incumbent: Mike Fitzpatrick

Population	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian
682279	92	2	2	2

	Obama %	McCain %
Old lines	54	45
New lines	52	47
% change	-2%	+2%

Fitzpatrick’s district is improved by four points net and Murphy is removed from his district. That said, it’s not all smiles for him.

Swapping southern Bucks for reddish or marginal parts of eastern and northern Montgomery helps him a little. On the other hand, he could be helped a lot more if the last 35,000 of his population requirement didn’t have to be filled by taking Easton off Charlie Dent’s hands.

This district is slightly more Republican than the nation as a whole, and if Fitzpatrick endears himself to his constituents he could well survive. On the other hand, he has to be hoping Sarah Palin gets nowhere near the Republican nomination. The last thing he needs in 2012 is a combination of presidential year turnout and a candidate guaranteed to drive suburban voters into voting for Democrats.

PA-5 (was PA-6)

Incumbent: Jim Gerlach, Manan Trivedi

Population	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian
680512	90	3	3	3

	Obama %	McCain %
Old lines	58	41
New lines	53	46
% change	-5%	+5%

Jim Gerlach is never going to be entirely safe, but this district might give him a bit of extra comfort for a couple of cycles.

Like Fitzpatrick, he has to help Dent out in the Lehigh Valley, in Gerlach’s case grabbing Bethlehem plus southern portions of Lehigh and Northampton counties. Nevertheless, these areas aren’t overwhelmingly blue and in all other cases boundary changes are in his favour.

He gives up much of Chester County to let the new PA-6 through and abandons Reading and its most Democratic suburbs to Tim Holden.

In return, he picks up absolutely blood-red, 70-30 McCain areas in northwest Berks and northeast Lancaster, which are less likely to turn blue suddenly than his current suburban turf.

PA-6 (was PA-7)

Incumbent: Pat Meehan

Population	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian
679961	90	5	2	3

	Obama %	McCain %
Old lines	56	43
New lines	51	48
% change	-5%	+5%

Pat Meehan is probably the big winner on this map, which is largely accidental, as I figured that if there had to be a Republican casualty in the southeast, he’d be first in line as a freshman who hadn’t previously served in Congress.

His district moves a net ten points towards Republicans. Well, I say his district. Rather than being centred on Delaware County, it now draws less than 250,000 from that source. In the process, it has offloaded the homes of Sestak and Bryan Lentz to Joe Pitts’ district.

It makes up for this by heading west through the central parts of Chester county, turning northwestwards and heading through Lancaster county into southern Lebanon county and eastern Dauphine county, finishing up in the outer suburbs of Harrisburg.

With no part of the district outside Delaware County large enough to provide a base for primary challengers and with a lot of new turf that won’t turn blue in a hurry, Pat Meehan can afford to feel very pleased with himself.

Until he realises that Obama still won this district, so he can’t feel entirely comfortable.

PA-7 (was PA-16)

Incumbent: Joe Pitts, Joe Sestak, Bryan Lentz

Population	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian
681623	91	4	3	1

	Obama %	McCain %
Old lines	48	51
New lines	49	51
% change	+1%	+0%

Although he represents the first district we’ve yet seen that McCain won, Joe Pitts is probably the biggest Republican loser on this map.

It’s not drastic in terms of pure partisanship. Obama improves by only 1% compared to the old lines. But whilst he’s dropped Reading and Lancaster and picked up reliably red turf in southern York County, he’s also absorbed a little over 200,000 new largely Democratic voters in Delaware County.

If he’s ready to adapt himself to a more suburban audience, he’ll do fine. McCain won the new district and it’s likely Bush did so with huge margins. But if he can’t do that and if Joe Sestak fancies running for Congress again, there could be problems for Pennsylvania Republicans.

PA-8 (was PA-17)

Incumbent: Tim Holden

Population	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian
683263	77	9	10	2

	Obama %	McCain %
Old lines	48	51
New lines	56	43
% change	+8%	-8%

This isn’t, I will admit, a pretty district, but it’s a functional one. The cities of Lancaster, Harrisburg, Lebanon, Pottsville and Reading are joined by stretches of extremely red countryside, forming the semblance of an M, then parts of central Schuykill are shoved in to make sure Holden runs here.

A community of interest district of south-eastern Pennsylvanian cities that don’t simply look to Philadelphia is created, Tim Holden gets a much safer district, but a progressive enough one for him to be troubled in the primary and Republicans get to take vast red areas from his current district, as well not having to face up to him in the general election. Everybody wins, except the 30% Obama areas that get their voting preferences drowned out by the cities.

PA-9 (was PA-15)

Incumbent: Charlie Dent

Population	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian
681623	88	3	7	1

	Obama %	McCain %
Old lines	56	43
New lines	54	45
% change	-2%	+2%

This district isn’t as much as an improvement as some, but Charlie Dent won’t be too disappointed. His new territory in the Poconos went for Obama, but Pat Toomey won it by over 5,000 votes and the Coal County portions of the district went narrowly for McCain.

In the old core of the district, meanwhile, his margins are hardly hurt by exchanging Easton and Bethlehem (and his last challenger) for red bits of north Berkshire County is hardly going to hurt.

Of course, Dent has always won fairly easily by keeping his head down and he might suffer some backlash from this fairly deliberate attempt to carve up the Lehigh Valley. But I doubt that’ll do him enough damage to cancel out the four-point net Republican improvement in this district.

PA-10 (was PA-11)

Incumbent: Lou Barletta

Population	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian
680221	97	1	1	1

	Obama %	McCain %
Old lines	57	42
New lines	52	47
% change	-5%	+5%

Let’s be honest here – Paul Kanjorski was a terrible candidate. He nearly lost a district that Obama won by fifteen points in 2008, and followed that up by a ten-point defeat against the same opponent in 2010, whilst Joe Sestak carried the district by four points.

Given a better year for Democrats and a better candidate like Corey O’Brien, Barletta could be in real trouble. The district is therefore heavily reconfigured. Swingy Carbon and Monroe Counties are given to Dent, whilst in Lackawanna County it abandons Scranton (and O’Brien’s residence in Moosic) to the 11th, whilst absorbing most of the 11th (old 10th)’s portions of Lackawanna County, as well as the entirety of Wyoming County.

In the south-west of the district, it expands to take in much of the Coal Region, including the entirety of Northumberland and Montour counties, northern Dauphin and northwest Schuykill.

It’s still a district Obama won, although the margin is slightly less than he managed nationally. But without the Democratic juggernaught of Scranton and with downscale and monolithically white coal counties which ought to be sympathetic to his immigrant-baiting populism, Barletta might just have a chance of holding on past 2012.

PA-11 (was PA-10)

Incumbent: Tom Marino, Chris Carney, Corey O’Brien

Population	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian
680774	94	2	1	1

	Obama %	McCain %
Old lines	45	54
New lines	46	53
% change	+1%	-1%

Chris Carney performed very strongly in his portion of Lackawanna County, but he got beaten by at least ten points everywhere else. There’s no great shame in that, as they’re all red counties and he outperformed Joe Sestak by at least 5% in every single one of them, but he did lose pretty big.

Carney initially won by the simple expedient of running in a very strong Democratic year and facing an incumbent who choked his mistress. He retained his position in 2008 by maintaining a very conservative voting record. But this isn’t a very Democratic district and Marino ought to be able to hold on here with ease.

I therefore didn’t feel any great need to concentrate on making Marino too safe. I gave him the rest of Lycoming County to build his base and he also picked up Perry, Juniata and Mifflin counties, which whilst small are also the most Republican in Pennsylvania. These advantages, however, are more than outweighed by the loss of Wyoming County, the addition of a section of Centre County (including State College) that went for Obama by 15 points and Scranton.

Obama won the Lackawanna parts of the district by 32 points. McCain won the rest by 13 points. So it’s not like my attempts at diluting Scranton’s votes are subtle. But it ought to work, especially since Carney’s path to a rematch is likely to be blocked by a primary with a Lackawanna Democrat and since many of the primary voters will be further to the left than the Blue Dog Carney.

PA-12 (was PA-19)

Incumbent: Todd Russell Platts

Population	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian
682014	92	3	3	1

	Obama %	McCain %
Old lines	43	56
New lines	41	58
% change	-2%	+2%

I didn’t set out to strengthen Platts, but given the strength of the red turf around him it was hard not to. His district loses much of York County to give Joe Pitts a chance and compensates by grabbing the rest of Cumberland County plus Franklin County.

Except for York and a very few Harrisburg suburbs, there’s pretty much no Democratic strength in the district.

That said, it’s neither an overly cohesive nor a pretty-looking district. Franklin County doesn’t really belong in s South Central Pennsylvania district and the lines in York are as bad as they are because I had to preserve Platts’ home in the district.

If Republicans pick a more cautious option, expect them to concede a seat in the Delaware County area and combine Pitts with Platts. Platts’ occasional outbursts of sanity would surely doom him in the primary and it’d be possible to draw much neater lines.

For that matter, I wouldn’t be shocked if Republicans drew Platts out of here anyway and replaced him with somebody more reliably obstructive.

PA-13 (was PA-9)

Incumbent: Bill Shuster, Mark Critz

Population	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian
680879	96	2	1	0

	Obama %	McCain %
Old lines	35	63
New lines	42	57
% change	+7%	-6%

Removing Mark Critz really isn’t that difficult. He lives in Johnstown and derives his margin of victory from parts of Cambria County plus the towns along the Monongahela River.

By throwing all of Cambria County into the new 13th, which otherwise takes only a few small and red-leaning parts of Armstrong and Indiana from the old 12th, he’s left with a district a net fourteen points more Republican than the one he currently has. Meantime, Shuster keeps all his old base.

Otherwise, this district is basically just a much less ugly version of the old 9th. County fragments are reduced, with the district no longer taking in any of Fayette or heading north-west through the Appalachians towards Harrisburg. Spurs towards the Allegheny Plateau and Pittsburgh make it a little less compact than it might otherwise have been, but it’s a long way from the worst district on this map.

In the process, it goes from being a 35% Obama to a 42% Obama district, but there’s really not much need for an R+17 district in Pennsylvania. R+10 or so is fine.

PA-14 (was PA-5)

Incumbent: G. T. Thompson, Kathy Dahlkemper

Population	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian
683996	95	3	1	0

	Obama %	McCain %
Old lines	44	55
New lines	46	52
% change	+2%	-3%

The most populous district designed for a Republican, this district remains broadly similar to the old 5th, it just shifts a county or so north-west.

In the process, the city of Erie is drawn into the district. Without Erie, the district is actually even more Republican than before (the removal of State College to the 11th helps). With it, the district moves towards the blue team, although as there’s a lack of Democratic strength anywhere in it outside the north-west of the district, it shouldn’t be overly vulnerable.

Kathy Dahlkemper lives here, but most of the district is new to her and the rest of the district could be won by just about any Democrat, so there’s no reason to assume she’d be the obvious 2012 challenger.

PA-15 (was PA-3)

Incumbent: Mike Kelly

Population	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian
681691	94	4	1	0

	Obama %	McCain %
Old lines	49	49
New lines	47	51
% change	-2%	+2%

I know almost nothing about Mike Kelly, so if he’s a complete nutter then you might need to give him a safer district. If he’s at least somewhat sub-Bachmann, however, this district, which maintains the core of the old 3rd, ought to be defensible by him.

Residual Democratic strength in Lawrence and Beaver Counties might cause him a little problem initially, but at least on a presidential level Democratic strength is already limited to the areas bordering the Ohio, Beaver and Shenango rivers, and if he’s still around by the end of the decade then Democratic strength in western PA may be a bygone memory.

PA-16 (was PA-4)

Incumbent: Jason Altmire, Keith Rothfus

Population	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian
682825	96	2	1	1

	Obama %	McCain %
Old lines	44	55
New lines	42	57
% change	-2%	+2%

Altmire just hung on this year, but the unwinding of Democratic strength in the west will make his job a little harder everyday. This map just aims to make it that little bit harder.

Beaver and Lawrence counties, which still vote Democratic downticket, are replaced by large chunks the considerably more Republican Westmoreland County. Of the seven state representatives representing Westmoreland-based districts in the general assembly, Democrats hold two that was uncontested and one that was contested this year, Republicans hold three (including one gain), whilst the seventh representative was nominated by both parties, so the downticket trend is clearly well-advanced there.

In Allegheny, most of the land north of Pittsburgh and the rivers is taken, except for a small area in the north-east that I dumped into the 13th. South of the Ohio, a thin line of swingy tonwships is also taken to help out Tim Murphy.

This might not finish off Altmire entirely – you’d need to dissect his base and doing so could endanger somebody else – but it’ll make his life more difficult and make him that much more vulnerable to bad Democratic years.

His 2010 challenger, Keith Rothfus, remains in the district, but other and more intimidating candidates might emerge.

PA-17 (was PA-14)

Incumbent: Mike Doyle

Population	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian
684659	74	21	1	2

	Obama %	McCain %
Old lines	70	29
New lines	69	30
% change	-1%	+1%

Doyle’s district maintains its original core of the city of Pittsburgh and some close suburbs, but to achieve population equality and to screw over Mark Critz whilst protecting Tim Murphy, it then heads down the Monongahela valley, taking in parts of Allegany, Washington, Westmoreland, Fayette and Green counties and reaching almost to the West Virginia border. No townships are split, which is the reason the district becomes slightly less Democratic.

The district remains entirely safe, and the other half of Mark Critz’s base is securely esconced in a Democratic district.

PA-18

Incumbent: Tim Murphy

Population	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian
683653	95	2	1	1

	Obama %	McCain %
Old lines	44	55
New lines	46	53
% change	+2%	-2%

Murphy takes, somewhat obviously, everything that’s left. This basically consists of non-riverine portions of Fayette, Greene and Washington, south-east Westmoreland and much of south and south-west Allegheny.

Whilst it does get a little more Democratic, Murphy has represented most of this area for long enough not to face too many problems.

–  –  –  –  –  –  –  –

I think it will have become clear by now where the major weaknesses with the map lie. How long can the GOP hold on to suburban Philadelphia seats that are trending against them, and would it be smarter just to give them up? How do you get three Republicans out of the Lehigh Valley and the north-east without making yourself very vulnerable to waves? Is it safe to split Erie County? How much do you have to weaken Altmire to guarantee his defeat? How much duct tape will be needed to shut up Joe Pitts?

I’d guess that at some point towards 2020 this map will be 10-8 Republican at best. It could get even worse. But I can’t see them abandoning any of their incumbents, so they have relatively little choice.

Suggestions as to how they can do this better are, of course, gratefully received

The democrats begin this process with a clear disadvantage from previous redistricting. Following the Cook Partisan Voting Index they are:

194 D+ seats

9 EVEN seats

232 R+ seats

We can not forget it

This diary find to give a preview about what can do the republicans in the redistricting process and about what can be the good ways for the democrats have some success after the current redistricting process.

Update: My first preview was giving – 1 NY, = MO, +3 TX and +1 FL.

STATES WITH FULL CONTROL FOR THE REPUBLICANS

I’m not optimistic about this group of states because the republicans never lose a chance for take advantage. The republicans will have full control of the redistricting process in many states, and I will go state by state.

Utah

One new district for the republicans.

UT-02 J Matheson (D) surely will run in a R+20+ the next time and without the current basis what send him to the house now.

Wyoming

No effect.

Oklahoma

OK-02 D Boren (D) surely will run in a R+20+ district. The same than for J Matheson.

Alabama

No chance for B Bright return.

Alaska

The Alaska Redistricting Board (Commission) is in republican hands.

No changes.

Nebraska

NE-02 safer for the republicans. No chance Obama wins again this electoral vote.

Kansas

The Reapportionment Commission is in republican hands.

KS-03 safer for the republicans.

Louisiana

The republicans will have the control of both state chambers thanks to some party switches and cause of this they will have the control of the redistricting process. But Louisiana will lose one seat and can not be LA-02. Then, the republicans will lose one here.

No chance of C Melancon return.

North Dakota

No effect.

Texas

Not gains prospect. I’m habitually optimistic, but here I expect not gains for the democrats. As maximum one if we recover TX-23 and TX-27. If they are not a law requirement of create new VRA districts, the republicans will create no-one. If finally they are 36 districts for Texas, I would expect 7 D+, 3 R+low approximately and 26R+10 or higher, but still the things can be worse. The three “swing” districts would be the successors of TX-28, TX-27 and TX-23. These will be again the districts for fight.

Four new districts for the republicans.

TX-25 L Doggett (D) will run likely in a R+10+ district or (less likely) against one of the neighboring democratic incumbents.

TX-28 H Cuellar (D) can run likely in a R+low district.

South Dakota

No effect.

Tennessee

No chance for L Davis return.

TN-05 J Cooper (D) will run likely in a R+10+ district. The same than L Doggett.

South Carolina

One new district for the republicans.

No chance for J Spratt return.

Georgia

If I’m not wrong the republicans can decrease the percentage of african-americans in GA-02 and GA-12 because they are districts with white majority. That mean these will be new R+ districts.

One new district for the republicans.

No chance for J Marshall return.

GA-02 S Bishop (D) will run likely in a R+10+ district.

GA-12 J Barrow (D) will run likely in a R+10+ district.

Indiana

If the republicans wish they can do all the districts with R+6 rating. If they keep one democratic seat (likely IN-01), they can do all the other districts with R+8 rating. If they keep two democratic seats (likely IN-01 and IN-07), they can do all the other districts with R+10 rating. Looking to the recent history of IN-08 and IN-09 districts, I think they will wish safest seats, then I think they will keep IN-01 and IN-07 as democratic seats.

IN-02 J Donnelly (D) will run for a R+10+ district or will need run a primary against P Visclosky.

North Carolina

It will be not easy for the republicans take advantage of the control of the redistricting process cause of the hability of the democratic candidates for win R+low districts in North Carolina.Still, they can do somethings. They first need to protect their new NC-02 district. Later surely they will find attack NC-11 (the easier tarjet). Later surely they will find attack NC-08, the second easier target. But fortunatelly they can not draw less than four D+ seats and they can not attack enough strongly NC-07 and NC-08 at same time. I expect four D+ districts, what can keep the current incumbents and one R+5 district (approximately). Not easy to leave M McIntyre out of this district without endanger other options.

NC-11 H Shuler (D) will run likely in a R+10+ district.

NC-08 L Kissell (D) will run likely in a R+10+ district.

Florida

The current redistricting of Florida is very pro-republican and the new procedure for redistricting will not change it. All the current swing districts are in republican hands and the legislature (republican majority) will not approve a map what protect not their incumbents in 2012. FL-22 surely will become a R+low district. Florida will have some R+low districts what the democrats can fight.

Two new R+ seats for the republicans.

Ohio

Despite to have the control of the redistricting process, including the trifecta and the Ohio Redistricting Commission what draw the legislative maps (not the congressional), the republicans have not chance of improve in Ohio. They have enough work for keep the incumbents, including their gains of 2010 (5 seats) and surely it will be not possible. At least they will lose one district, and they will leave a lot of swing districts with R+low rating, including OH-01, OH-12 and OH-15.

OH-13 B Sutton (D) surely will get out of the game.

One republican seat will disappear too. Maybe OH-06.

New Hampshire

The republicans have here enough majority for the democratic governor can not veto the new map. No changes.

Pennsylvania

The republicans control here the Pennsylvania Legislative Reapportionment Commission thank to their control of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, and they control also the trifecta what must approve the plan. But redistricting Pennsylvania is more difficult than Ohio for the republicans. They have enough work protecting incumbents, and they will have a lot of swing districts with R+low rating. I expect only 4 D+ districts (PA-01, PA-02, PA-13 and PA-14). PA-11, PA-06, PA-07, PA-08 and PA-15 can be R+ low since 2012. And here they are three democratic incumbents in R+ districts. I expect some troubles for one of them.

PA-12 M Critz (D) surely will be without own district and surely will need to run against a republican incumbent, but surely the district will have R+low rating. Then, they are some chance.

Wisconsin

After win full control of the redistricting process, I think the republicans will work for keep their incumbents in 2012. Surely WI-07 will be a R+low district. For it all the republican incumbents will be in swing districts.

Michigan

Again the same history. The republicans have more than enough work keeping their incumbents, and surely MI-06 and MI-11 will up until R+low districts.

MI-09 G Peeters (D) will get out the game. Surely G Peeters will need run against one incumbent, maybe against S Levin.

RECOUNT

+23 new R+ districts

-18 new D+ or EVEN districts

We have the next range for the republican gains after redistricting:

+1 – +2 Utah (1 new and maybe UT-02)

=0 – =0 Wyoming

=0 – +1 Oklahoma (maybe OK-02)

=0 – =0 Alabama

=0 – =0 Alaska

=0 – =0 Nebraska

=0 – =0 Kansas

– 1 – – 1 Louisiana (1 seat less)

=0 – =0 North Dakota

+4 – +6 Texas * (4 new and maybe TX-25 and TX-28)

=0 – =0 South Dakota

=0 – +1 Tennessee (maybe TN-05)

+1 – +1 South Carolina (1 new)

+1 – +3 Georgia (1 new and maybe GA-02 and GA-12)

=0 – +1 Indiana (maybe IN-02)

=0 – +2 North Carolina (maybe NC-08 and NC-11)

+2 – +2 Florida * (2 new seats)

– 1 – – 1 Ohio * (1 seat less and unknown still)

=0 – =0 New Hampshire *

=0 – =0 Pennsylvania * (unknown still)

=0 – =0 Wisconsin * (unknown still)

=0 – =0 Michigan * (unknown still)

———–

+7 – +17 Total republican gains for these states *

And the range for the democratic gains after redistricting:

– 1 – =0 Utah (maybe UT-02)

=0 – =0 Wyoming

– 1 – =0 Oklahoma (maybe OK-02)

=0 – =0 Alabama

=0 – =0 Alaska

=0 – =0 Nebraska

=0 – =0 Kansas

=0 – =0 Louisiana

=0 – =0 North Dakota

– 2 – =0 Texas * (maybe lose TX-25 and TX-28)

=0 – =0 South Dakota

– 1 – =0 Tennessee (maybe TN-05)

=0 – =0 South Carolina

– 2 – =0 Georgia (maybe GA-02 and GA-12)

– 1 – =0 Indiana (maybe IN-02)

– 2 – =0 North Carolina (maybe NC-08 and NC-11)

=0 – =0 Florida *

– 1 – – 1 Ohio * (1 seat less OH-13)

=0 – =0 New Hampshire *

– 1 – – 1 Pennsylvania * (1 seat less PA-12)

=0 – =0 Wisconsin *

– 1 – – 1 Michigan * (1 seat less MI-09)

———–

– 13 – – 3 Total democratic gains for these states *

* = For the numbers get more clear I count not the swing districts what the democrats can win in Texas, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan in 2012, despite the republican full control of the redistricting process. The effect of this would be less gains to the republicans and would be less loses for the democrats (maybe some net gain).

STATES WITH BIPARTISAN OR INDEPENDENT COMMISSIONS AND STATES WITH CONTROL OF BOTH PARTIES

COMMISSION

Idaho

No effect.

Montana

No effect.

Arizona

Arizona will win one house seat what can go to the republicans and in change the democrats will find to protect G Giffords in AZ-08 until have a D+ district.

New district for the republicans.

Colorado

Here the republicans have a very weak majority in the state house (32D-33R) but the redistricting is made by a commission where the democrats can have the control thanks to the three members appointed by the governor, who has veto power. As minimum I think the democrats can be successful going to the court with a 3D-3R-1S map what gives EVEN rate to the current CO-03. Nothing for lose here.

Iowa

Iowa will lose one seat. IA-03 and IA-04 can merge in one house seat what can be very close to EVEN rating. I give not L Boswell as sure loser.

New Jersey

The state will lose one house seat and the first candidate can be NJ-03 if they are not open seats, but maybe some republican representative challenge R Menendez. In change of lose one seat, the republicans can find NJ-02 become R+ if this district disappear not. The commission in this state is keeping one of the most pro-republican maps in all the bluest states.

Maine

Maybe ME-02 becomes a little safer.

Washington

Here will be a new district what can go to the democratic hands, while WA-08 and WA-03 can be R+low districts, and I hope WA-02 become too a little safer.

California

At least, protecting incumbents, CA-11 should become a D+ district.

Hawaii

No effect.

RECOUNT

=0 new R+ districts

– 1 new D+ or EVEN districts

We have the next range for the republican gains after redistricting:

=0 – =0 Idaho

=0 – =0 Montana

+1 – +1 Arizona * (1 new seat)

– 1 – =0 Colorado * (maybe lose CO-03)

– 1 – =0 Iowa (maybe lose the current IA-04)

– 1 – – 1 New Jersey * (1 seat less)

=0 – =0 Maine

=0 – =0 Washington *

=0 – =0 California *

=0 – =0 Hawaii

———-

– 2 – =0 Total republican gains for these states *

And the range for the democratic gains after redistricting:

=0 – =0 Idaho

=0 – =0 Montana

=0 – =0 Arizona *

=0 – +1 Colorado * (maybe win CO-03

– 1 – =0 Iowa (maybe lose the current IA-03)

=0 – =0 New Jersey *

=0 – =0 Maine

+1 – +1 Washington * (1 new seat)

=0 – =0 California *

=0 – =0 Hawaii

———–

=0 – +2 Total democratic gains for these states *

* = For the numbers get more clear I count not the swing districts what the democrats can win in Arizona, Colorado, New Jersey, Washington and California in 2012. Again, the effect of this would be less gains to the republicans and would be less loses for the democrats (maybe some net gain).

Some people think this system is the right procedure, but the republicans take advantage from here because these commissions are keeping some pro-republican maps and contribute to keep the republican advantage what the republicans take in other states.

In the R+ states working with commissions, the democrats only have 2 hispanic representatives in hispanic majority districts, 3 black representatives in black districts, and 4 white representatives in white districts (3 of them jews). It seems like only they are democrats from these minorities.

While, in the EVEN or D+ states working with commissions, the republicans have 40 representatives.

CONTROL OF BOTH PARTIES

Kentucky

No important changes. The republicans will block every improvement for the democratic representatives.

Mississippi

No changes. No chance for T Childers or G Taylor return.

Missouri

Missouri will lose one seat and that will give troubles to both parties. I think the most likely scenario can be a merge of MO-03 (D+7 R Carnahan) and MO-02 (R+9 T Akin) in a EVEN district. Other option would be a merge of MO-05 (D+10 E Cleaver and MO-06 (R+7 S Graves), but I think the democrats will dislike to lose the balance between St Louis and Kansas City and the republicans will dislike leave some democratic votes to MO-04 endangering a second seat or give to the new merging seat a D+ rate.

Virginia

The democrats will find to protect VA-11 and the republicans some of their districts. Still this state will have some swing district with R+low rating.

Nevada

Nevada will have a new district. Surely NV-03 will be a R+low district while the new district will be a D+low.

Minnesota

I think the republicans can find MN-03 and MN-08 become R+ while the democrats can find MN-01 and MN-07 become D+.

New Mexico

No changes.

Oregon

I think the democrats can be able for make safer OR-04 and OR-05. I would like to see a 5-0 map here and I think it would be possible. Despite the tie in the state house, the republicans have a very weak prospect because if the state legislature fail drawing the maps, the Secretary of State (democrat) would draw the maps of the state house and the state senate seats.

Connecticut

The current map only need a little mix of the current CT-05 and CT-01. A bipartisan commission will draw the paps what need the approval of 2/3 of both chambers. The republicans have now just the minimum for be over 1/3 in both chambers.

New York

The first goal for the democrats must be up to D+5+ level NY-02, NY-27, NY-01 and NY-23. NY-25 surely will be the first district what get out the game. The democratic votes of Syracuse can help making safer the NY-23. Still I think the democrats must find more here. I think the democratic members of the legislature must find the republicans lose a second seat. I would select NY-13, but if they are some trouble about Staten Island, the next option would be NY-03. This still would leave 6 R+low swing districts in New York. This is little improvement. I think the little advantage of the republicans in the state senate will not be enough for stop these improvements and maybe more.

RECOUNT

– 2 new R+ districts

=0 new D+ or EVEN districts

We have the next range for the republican gains after redistricting:

=0 – =0 Kentucky

=0 – =0 Mississippi

– 1 – =0 Missouri

=0 – =0 Virginia *

=0 – =0 Nevada *

=0 – =0 Minnesota *

=0 – =0 New Mexico *

=0 – =0 Oregon

=0 – =0 Connecticut

– 2 – – 2 New York (2 seats less)*

———-

– 3 – – 2 Total republican gains for these states *

And the range for the democratic gains after redistricting:

=0 – =0 Kentucky

=0 – =0 Mississippi

– 1 – =0 Missouri

=0 – =0 Virginia *

+1 – +1 Nevada (1 new seat)*

=0 – =0 Minnesota *

=0 – =0 New Mexico *

=0 – =0 Oregon

=0 – =0 Connecticut

=0 – =0 New York *

———–

=0 – +1 Total democratic gains for these states *

* = For the numbers get more clear I count not the swing districts what the democrats can win in Virginia, Nevada, Minnesota, New Mexico and New York in 2012. Again, the effect of this would be less gains to the republicans and would be less loses for the democrats (maybe some net gain).

This would be the recount until now:

+21 new R+ house seats

– 19 new D+ or EVEN house seats

(+2,+15) range for republican gains *

(- 13,=0) range for democratic gains *

* = This include not many swing districts in republican hands in many states (emphasized with *) what the democrats can fight. But the big majority of these districts would be R+(low) districts. That mean the republicans have advantage here. NH-01, NH-02 and CO-03 are the alone republican districts in all these 42 states what surely would be EVEN or D+. The republicans have low chance of make these districts R+, then these districts should be obvious targets for the democrats in 2012 since now.

STATES WITH FULL CONTROL FOR THE DEMOCRATS

Well, from this group must come the improvements what balance the improvents what will give to the republicans the full control in other states.

Arkansas

(Updated) The democrats have the control of the Board of Apportionment (Commission) what decide about the maps what draw the legislature, what have democratic majorities in both chambers. The best for keep the democratic congressional delegation from Arkansas in the long-term would be to have a black district protected by the VRA, but under the current laws this seems not possible. I would like some change in the laws for can do it, because surely this is the last chance for do a black district in Arkansas protected by the VRA. If the democrats from this state make not this, the republicans will have a 4-0 map in the first chance what they have. My point would be create a black district what would be D+, keep a R+5 district for M Ross, and leave two R+20 for the republicans. Aproximately.

West Virginia

I think the democrats will find to protect N Rahall WV-03 but I doubt if they can do a D+ district here.

Delaware

No effect.

Illinois

Illinois will lose a house seat too. The democrats from Illinois have the chance of put to every republican incumbent running in a D+5+ district for 2012. I wish they do it. The redistricting in Illinois is key in this cycle.

Maryland

I think the democrats from Maryland will make MD-01 and MD-06 D+5+ districts, winning two seats for the democratic side. The democrats of the rest of the country need it.

Rhode Island

No effect.

Massachusetts

MA-?? ? This state will lose one district after the redistricting and I hope the new districts become a little safer for the democratic incumbents.

Vermont

No effect.

RECOUNT

-4 new R+ districts

+2 new D+ or EVEN districts

We have the next range for the republican gains after redistricting:

– 1 – =0 Arkansas (maybe AR-02)

=0 – =0 West Virginia

=0 – =0 Delaware

– 11 – – 1 Illinois

– 2 – =0 Maryland

=0 – =0 Rhode Island

=0 – =0 Massachusetts

=0 – =0 Vermont

———-

– 14 – – 1 Total republican gains for these states *

And the range for the democratic gains after redistricting:

=0 – +1 Arkansas (maybe AR-02)

=0 – =0 West Virginia

=0 – =0 Delaware

=0 – +10 Illinois

=0 – +2 Maryland

=0 – =0 Rhode Island

– 1 – – 1 Massachusetts

=0 – =0 Vermont

———–

– 1 – +12 Total democratic gains for these states *

* = For the numbers get more clear I count not the swing districts what the democrats can win in 2012. They are not in this group of states.

This would be the total recount without include the effect of a gerrymander redistricting of Illinois:

+17 new R+ house seats

– 17 new D+ or EVEN house seats

182 D+ seats

4 EVEN seats (maybe IA-03/04, MO-02/03, CO-03 and NH-01)

249 R+ seats

(- 2,+14) range for republican gains *

(- 14,+2) range for democratic gains *

This would be the total recount including the effect of a gerrymander redistricting of Illinois:

+10 new R+ house seats

– 10 new D+ or EVEN house seats

189 D+ seats

4 EVEN seat (maybe IA-03/04, MO-02/03, CO-03 and NH-01)

242 R+ seats

(- 12,+14) range for republican gains *

(- 14,+12) range for democratic gains *

* = This include not many swing districts in republican hands in many states (emphasized with *) what the democrats can fight. But except NH-01 and NH-02, all the other seats would be R+(low) districts. That mean the republicans have advantage here.

Gerrymander Illinois (and Maryland) can be the alone way for keep the current number of D+ seats in the US House and for balance the likely republican gains what the redistricting process in other states will give to them.

RESUME

Republican safe gains = 10

UT-04 (new)

TX-33 (new)

TX-34 (new)

TX-35 (new)

TX-36 (new)

SC-07 (new)

GA-14 (new)

AZ-09 (new)

FL-26 (new)

FL-27 (new)

Republican safe loses what can not be democratic gains = 6

LA-?? (disappear)

OH-06 (disappear)

NJ-03 (disappear)

NY-25 (disappear)

NY-13 (disappear)

IL-19 (disappear)

Democratic seats what can be republican gains as consecuence of important changes in the redistricting process = 10

TX-25 L Doggett (D) as R+10+

TN-05 J Cooper (D) as R+10+

GA-02 S Bishop (D) as R+10+

GA-12 J Barrow (D) as R+10+

NC-08 L Kissell (D) as R+10+

IN-02 J Donnelly (D) as R+10+

UT-02 J Matheson (D) as R+20+

OK-02 D Boren (D) as R+20+

NC-11 H Shuler (D) as R+10+

TX-28 H Cuellar (D) as R+low

In the middle = 2

IA-03/04

MO-02/03

Republican seats what can be democratic gains as consecuence of important changes in the redistricting process = 14

MD-01 as D+5+

MD-06 as D+5+

AR-02 as D+5+ I would wish black majority

IL-15 as D+5+

IL-18 as D+5+

IL-16 as D+5+

IL-08 as D+5+

IL-11 as D+5+

IL-13 as D+5+

IL-14 as D+5+

IL-06 as D+5+

CO-03 as EVEN

IL-17 as D+5+

IL-10 as D+5+

The effect of include not the gerrymander redistricting of Illinois would be to quit this 10 districts of this group or at least some of them.

Democratic safe loses what can not be republican gains = 4

OH-13 B Sutton (D) (disappear)

PA-12 M Critz (D) (disappear)

MI-09 G Peeters (D) (disappear)

MA-?? (disappear)

Democratic safe gains = 2

WA-10 (new)

NV-04 (new)

In this resume is not included the fight in other districts. The democrats can have 6 R+ district what can be safer (NC-07, PA-04, PA-17, KY-06, WV-03 and AR-04). The republicans would have only three EVEN or D+ (CO-03, NH-01, and NH-02) and they will have many R+low districts what can be vulnerable but where they will have advantage.

MARYLAND

(Updated) An example of 8-0 map from my previous diaries:

CD1: (Blue) Frank Kratovil (D)

– D+6 Obama 59% McCain 39%

– Include all of Kent, Queen Anne’s, Caroline and Talbot counties.

– Include part of Baltimore, Anne Arundel and Prince George’s counties and part of Baltimore city.

– White 65% Black 26%

– Deviation of population: +6012

CD2: (Green) Dutch Ruppersberger (D)

– D+7 Obama 60% McCain 39%

– Include part of Harford, Baltimore, Carrol, Howard, Montgomery and Prince George’s counties.

– White 50% Black 26% Hisp 15%

– Deviation of population: -4800

CD3: (Purple) John Sarbanes (D)

– D+7 Obama 60% McCain 39%

– Include part of Harford, Baltimore, Howard counties and part of Baltimore city.

– White 64% Black 25% Asian 6%

– Deviation of population: -2980

CD4: (Red) Donna Edwards (D)

– D+17 Obama 70% McCain 29%

– Include part of Prince George’s and Anne Arundel counties.

– Black 50% White 42%

– Deviation of population: +3968

CD5: (Yellow) Steny Hoyer (D)

– D+6 Obama 59% McCain 40%

– Include all of Charles, Calvert, St-Mary’s, Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset and Worcester counties.

– Include part Prince George’s and Anne Arundel counties.

– White 63% Black 30%

– Deviation of population: +3283

CD6: (Greenish blue) Roscoe Bartlett (R)

– D+7 Obama 60% McCain 39%

– Include part of Carroll, Frederick and Montgomery counties.

– White 61% Black 14% Hisp 13% Asian 10%

– Deviation of population: -1859

CD7: (Gray) Elijah Cummings (D)

– D+16 Obama 69% McCain 30%

– Include all of Cecil county.

– Include part of Harford and Baltimore counties and part of Baltimore city.

– Black 50% White 44%

– Deviation of population: +1739

CD8: (Lilac) Chris Van Hollen (D)

– D+7 Obama 60% McCain 38%

– Include all of Garrett, Allegany and Washington counties.

– Include part of Frederick and Montgomery counties.

– White 73% Black 9% Hisp 8% Asian 8%

– Deviation of population: -5366

ARKANSAS

(Updated) With Illinois and Maryland, Arkansas can be the third state where the democrats can win some seat redrawing current districts thanks to the redistricting process. Arkansas has chance of create a D+ district, and if they are some change in the laws, has chance of create a black district for the future with the protection of the VRA despite the republicans can have a majority.

David has not still political data for this state, but yes demographic data, and I have a draft what shows so close areas with the higher percentage of black population. I wish publish it here for the people can see one area with the population of a US House district with over the 50% of black population in Arkansas. Surely we would down some point connecting all the terrytories but I think it is available to do a district with 48-49% black and a little less white population in Arkansas if they are some change in the current law for can divide the counties in different districts.

This is the draft:

Continuing the thought experiment about what 2010 redistricting look might like under the “Wyoming Rule,” I give you Texas.  The mid-cycle Delaymander, together with the freak elections of Farenthold and (slightly less shocking) Canseco, several incumbents in the Dallas and Houston areas that are seeing their once solid districts become purplish (think Culberson and Sessions), means that likely the GOP is going to play tactical defense with redistricting this time around.  But the nice thing with adding 14 new districts (versus 3-4 in actual reality) under the Wyoming Rule is the GOP is able, in addition to protecting each and every one of its incumbents, to create several open GOP seats throughout the state.

The second thing I wanted to know what how exactly the VRA might place a monkey wrench in efforts to expand the GOP congressional delegation in Texas.  We know in reality, with a likely 35 or 36 seats after 2010, 2-3 of those will be new VRA seats (probably a new Hispanic district each in the Dallas-Forth Worth and Houston areas), plus perhaps a new Hispanic district in South/West Texas.  But, interestingly, under Wyoming-sized districts, even though there are more VRA districts, the GOP is still able under this map to gain 9 out of the 14 new districts (and that includes one VRA Hispanic district in West Texas that voted 55% for McCain!)  It turns out that the VRA will not prevent the GOP from locking down a likely 32-14 split in Texas’ congressional delegation under the Wyoming Rule.  Follow me below the jump for maps and a fuller explanation.

Now were this New York, they would sensibly label the districts in a coherent way, but this is crazy Texas which means having districts jumping all over the place!  But because I wanted to know where the new districts were going to be, I kept the numbers all the same and added in the new districts.  Since Texas is several states all onto one, I will divide my discussion here by region, starting with Dallas-Forth Worth.

Dallas-Fort Worth Metro Area

The map in the Dallas-Forth Worth area sees several major changes.  First of all, the VRA would require the creation of not one but two new Hispanic districts while turning Johnson’s 30th, which is currently a fusion minority-majority district, into a Black majority district.  But because all the Democratic votes get vacuumed up in three as opposed to one district, as is currently the case, the remaining two open seats created in the region are heavily favored to elect Republicans and all currently existing GOP incumbents are given safe districts.

District 3 (light purple) Johnson (R)

Obama 39, McCain 60

This district divides almost neatly into two given its explosive population growth and the smaller districts under the Wyoming Rule.  I decided to move this district completely into Collin County.

District 36 (light orange) NEW GOP SEAT

Obama 39, McCain 60

Took swingy areas in northern Dallas County from Johnson’s current district and merged them with uber-red outlying areas in Collin County mostly now in Hall’s 4th.  Like any GOP mapmaker would do.

District 32 (dark orange) Sessions (R)

Obama 43, McCain 56

Proof you can still create a relatively safe GOP seat in north Dallas, once you create the new VRA seats.

District 5 (yellow) Hensarling (R)

Obama 34, McCain 65

Mostly a Dallas and East Texas hybrid, like now.

District 33 (blue in Dallas County) NEW HISPANIC DISTRICT

H 52, W 25, B 20

Obama 71, McCain 28

The first of two new VRA-compliant Hispanic districts in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

District 30 (mauve) Johnson (D) BLACK DISTRICT

B 53, W 29, H 14

Obama 80, McCain 19

To make 2 Hispanic districts in the Dallas/Forth Worth area and to gobble up Democratic voters in Fort Worth, Johnson’s district now gives up Hispanic areas in Dallas to the 33rd in exchange for black voters in Fort Worth.  In the real world of redistricting under a 35/36 district map after 2010, her district will likely be drawn in much the same way.

District 34 (green) NEW HISPANIC DISTRICT

H 52, W 30, B 15

Obama 61, McCain 38

This is the 2nd Hispanic majority district, this one a fusion extending from western Dallas to parts of Irving all the way over to Fort Worth.  Again, in the real world after 2010, GOP mapmakers are likely to draw the new Hispanic seat this way as well to maximize the amount of Democratic voters sucked into VRA districts.

District 6 (teal) Barton (R)

Obama 38, McCain 61

Largely as currently, a south Dallas exurbs and rural district with a piece of Arlington to remove all the most pro-Democratic parts away from the open 35th district next door.

District 35 (purple in Tarrant County) NEW GOP SEAT

Obama 39, McCain 60

Should elect a Tarrant County Republican no problem.

District 12 Granger (R)(light blue)

Obama 36, McCain 63

Granger gets a considerably safer district now that minority areas in Forth Worth are removed into the 30th and the 34th.

District 24 Marchant (R) (dark purple)

Obama 41, McCain 58

Should be a safe district for Marchant as long as he wants it…  no longer goes so much into swingish Irving.

District 26 Burgess (R) (slate)

Obama 36, McCain 63

Confined just to Denton County now.

District 39 (light white/beige) NEW GOP SEAT

Obama 23, McCain 76

I combined all the Dallas-Fort Worth exurban counties north, west, and south into one district instead of splitting them off in a million and one directions.  Should be safe for a firebreather as Democrats are an endangered species here.

East Texas

District 1 Gohmert (R) (dark blue)

Obama 30, McCain 69

Slight changes made.

District 4 (red) Hall (R)

Obama 29, McCain 70

Should be safe for the GOP when Hall retires or dies.

District 5 (yellow) (see writeup in Dallas-Fort Worth section)

District 6 (teal) (see writeup in Dallas-Fort Worth section) The only thing I’ll add here is that the 6th now cuts Waco in half with the new 40th, thus probably ensuring no return to Congress by Chet Edwards.

District 40 (burnt orange) NEW GOP SEAT

Obama 39, McCain 60

Probably a safe seat for the GOP, Obama percentage is as high as it is due to abnormally high turnout in 2008 for him in Bell County.  Probably overstates Democratic strength a bit.  If Edwards were to try to get back into Congress, it might be from this district, but I still think the deck is stacked against him.

District 37 (light blue) NEW GOP SEAT

Obama 32, McCain 67

East Texas gets a district of its own.  While this district at one time may have elected a conservative Dixiecrat in the mold of Charlie Wilson, I don’t think it will now.

District 17 (dark purple) Flores (R)

Obama 33, McCain 66

Removes the possibility of Edwards trying to take his old seat back by removing Waco completely and recentering the district more to the left-over areas from drawing districts in East Texas and the Houston area.  

Houston Area

This is one area where the VRA, once thought to be a major friend to the Democrats, actually surprised me in not being all that much of one (South/West Texas is the other).  Back in 2004, the GOP actually sensibly left three Democrats alone here.  A second Hispanic district is added and Lee gets a Black majority district instead of her current fusion minority-majority one.  Even though two new GOP suburban seats are created, all GOP incumbents are given safe districts.

District 2 (forest green) Poe (R)

Obama 38, McCain 61

Shrinks a little bit from before but basically the same.

District 42 (neon green) NEW GOP SEAT

Obama 42, McCain 57

Was able to partition Olson’s district roughly in half into two successor districts, this is one of them.  Would be the congressman who represents the space center in Houston I believe.

District 29 (greenish-gray district right next to it) Green (D) HISPANIC DISTRICT

H 63, W 22, B 12

Obama 63, McCain 36

Perhaps the end of Green and an Hispanic congress-member at last from this district?  Cut in half from its current version to make another Hispanic district in the Houston area.

District 18 (yellow) Jackson-Lee (D) BLACK DISTRICT

B 56, H 24, W 15

Obama 85, McCain 15

Once you scrape off the Hispanic precincts and place them into a new Hispanic district, it is possible to create a Black-majority district in the Houston area, and something which the VRA would require.  In actual reality, after 2010, the Houston area is going to look a lot like I have it now under a 35/36 seat map as under a 46 Wyoming Rule map.

District 9 (sky blue) Green (D) MINORITY-MAJORITY COALITION SEAT

B 38, H 33, W 16, A 11

Obama 79, McCain 21

Very similar to what currently exists.  A very proactive Obama DOJ would perhaps require a black-majority district stretching all the way down to Galveston and over to Beaumont, but I don’t think the Texas GOP will concede such a district unless legally forced to.  I know if I were a Texas Democrat, I would draw such a very district!  In the latter scenario, this district would extend a bit further than now into Fort Bend (and scrape off a few more areas out of the 7th) and retain its mixed-race character.

District 41 (top lighter gray) NEW HISPANIC DISTRICT

H 58, W 30, B 9

Obama 58, McCain 41

Takes Hispanic areas currently in the 7th and 18th, and left-over areas from the 29th, and combines them into a district.

District 7 (lower slightly darker gray) Culberson (R)

Obama 41, McCain 58

Largely the same as before except with  heavily-Democratic Hispanic precincts cut out.

District 38 (light green) NEW GOP DISTRICT

Obama 40, McCain 59

Should be fine for the GOP.

District 8 (purple) Brady (R)

Obama 23, McCain 76

All of Montgomery County and a bit of north Houston County to equalize its population.  Very safe GOP.

In Fort Bend and south of Houston…

District 22 (brown) Olson (R)

Obama 42, McCain 58

Removed the Houston parts of the district into a new district as well as shaved off a few very blue precincts of Fort Bend into the 9th.  Olson should be fine.

District 14 (ugly green) Paul (R)

Obama 33, McCain 66

The incongruity of a congressman who doesn’t believe in flood insurance representing several areas prone to hurricanes gets me.  But then again, I understand very little that comes out of Texas!

Austin Area

With the smaller Wyoming-sized districts, it is prudent to pack Democrats of Travis County into one uber-Democratic district instead of trying to crack them as is currently the case.  Indeed, I would not be surprised if the GOP did this anyways in the real world after 2012.  Doggett isn’t going anywhere.

District 25 (mauve) Doggett (D) NEW MINORITY-MAJORITY DISTRICT

W 42, H 39, B 13, A 5

Obama 78, McCain 20

Packs Democrats and packs them some more into this one Austin-based seat.

District 10 (pink) McCaul (R)

Obama 43, McCain 55

Instead of going east in search of Republican votes to offset the still large numbers of Democrats leftover after drawing the 25th, this district now goes south to the exurbs of San Antonio.  Still, McCaul should like this district.

District 31 (white-yellow) Carter (R)

Obama 43, McCain 55

All of Williamson County and then dips south into a bit of Travis County to help spread the remaining Democratic voters out safely among the 3 districts surrounding the 25th.  If Williamson ever turns purple or blue, Carter may be in for some difficulty.  If the GOP had a long-term version, they’d concede a 2nd Democratic seat in Travis.  But I’m dealing with yahoos who think they can secede from the union for crisssakes!

District 45 (light blue) NEW GOP DISTRICT

Obama 42, McCain 56

This district completes the cracking of remaining Democratic voters out of Travis County by combining Democratic and lean-Democratic areas of Travis with uber-Republican areas north and northwest of San Antonio currently in Lamar Smith’s district.

San Antonio

Here the idea was to see whether I could create a VRA-compliant district that protects Conseco.  A Democrat could still win the district back, but I think I have achieved this goal.  Otherwise, Smith moves entirely into Bexar County.

District 21 (dark brown) Smith (R)

Obama 42, McCain 57

It is possible to draw an entire district in Bexar County that will continue electing Lamar Smith.  Amazing!

District 20 (pink) Gonzolez (D)

H 71, W 19, B 7

Obama 68, McCain 31

Packs Democrats in so that Conseco can be given a fighting chance next door.

District 23 (light blue) Conseco (R)

H 56, W 37, B 3

Obama 50, McCain 49

I believe this just barely meets VRA muster in that 56% is likely just enough to ensure that a majority of adults are Hispanic.  If not, the district can be tweaked a bit to ensure that it is.  About the best that can legally be done for Conseco under the Wyoming Rule.

District 28 (light pink/purple) will be written about in the South Texas writeup.

South Texas

District 27 (light green) Farenthold (R)

H 63, W 31, B 4

Obama 50, McCain 50

In a shocker upset, a white Republican now represents a heavily Hispanic South Texas district in the Corpus Christi area.  To give him a fighting chance, I carved out a new more Democratic district to its south.  But even though this district is still well within VRA guidelines, McCain still narrowly carried it.

District 43 (pink) NEW HISPANIC SEAT

H 73, W 24

Obama 54, McCain 46

Still impressed by how good Republicans do down here.  I guess South Texas Hispanics really don’t vote (because many of them aren’t legal citizens yet?).  A Republican could easily win this D+1 seat in a wave election like we just had.

District 15 (orange) Hinojosa (D)

H 70, W 26

Obama 52, McCain 48

Legally you cannot pack South Texas too heavily with Hispanics; hence all the thin narrow districts.  But that also means that none of these districts are all that Democratic in vote performance.

District 44 (dark red) NEW HISPANIC SEAT

H 76, W 21

Obama 56, McCain 43

South Texas’ other VRA mandated new Hispanic seat.  Again note how it would only be lean-Democratic.

District 28 (lilac) Cuellar (D)

H 81, W 13

Obama 68, McCain 31

Okay, here we get a Democratic-performing district, probably because of the little bit of San Antonio in the district.  Delicious irony from a GOP mapmakers perspective that one of former President Bush’s favorite Democrats gets the most Democratic district in South Texas!

Northwest Texas

Here I decided to create a GOP voting VRA Hispanic district that climbs up the spine of the New Mexico border.  After that, I decided to neaten up the district a bit; there’s no need for wild crazy lines when the days when the likes of Charlie Stenholm ever representing this region again in Congress are now gone and probably gone forever.  This is the most Republican region of all of Texas (of America?) when you take the Hispanics out and give them their own district.

District 13 (beige) Thornberry (R)

Obama 22, McCain 77

District 19 (ugly green) Neugebauer (R)

Obama 29, McCain 70

District is still 27% Hispanic even with the Hispanic district next door explaining the slightly higher Obama performance.  Still Democrats are an endangered species in West Texas.

Southwest Texas

District 11 Conaway (R) (neon green)

Obama 21, McCain 78

District 46 (light red) NEW HISPANIC DISTRICT

H 61, W 32, B 5

Obama 44, McCain 55

This is one way the GOP can screw the Democrats using the VRA.  



District 16 (green)

H 78, W 18, B 2

Obama 65, McCain 34

District shrinks due to Wyoming Rule, making it possible to draw a 2nd West Texas Hispanic seat.

So to recap, the map protects fully 21 of the current 23 Republicans in the delegation and gives the other 2 VRA districts they have a fighting chance of winning.  Then of the 14 new seats, using the VRA to pack Democrats, the GOP is able under this map to carve out 9 new districts for themselves, yielding only 5 to Democrats under the VRA.  Result, a delegation anywhere from 30-16 to 33-13 (given that Hinojosa now represents a R+1 district by PVI).  Yuck, yuck, yuck!!!

As a thought experiment, I’d figured I try redistricting the state of my birth (and my entire life up to age 30) under the Wyoming Rule discussed elsewhere on this website.  Aside from truly applying “one-man, one vote” by ensuring that residents of the smallest state do not have more of a vote than residents of the 3rd largest, there were other benefits of the Wyoming Rule when applied to New York City.  I was able under this map to create a new Hispanic VRA-compliant district in Queens (and give Valasquez an entire Brooklyn Hispanic district of her own).  In Queens, it was also possible to create an Asian influence “coalition” district that might ensure the election of the first Asian-American congressmember from New York.  And through the creation of several Queens/Nassau hybrid districts, I was able probably to ensure Peter King’s removal from public office (a major goal of mine as he is just terrible).  In the Bronx, with the smaller sized districts, it is possible not only to create another Hispanic VRA district (sorry Eliot Engel) but also an Black VRA district centered on northern Bronx and neighboring Mount Vernon.

Elsewhere, the major purpose of this map was to maximize Democratic-performing districts, particularly Downstate.  I created an open GOP seat in Suffolk County but cracked Peter King’s base and threw him into a 61% Obama district.  Staten Island is divided into two and hence neutered as a possible source of Republican votes.  In the Hudson Valley, three relatively safe Democratic seats were created with just one district with a Republican PVI (and that seat – Rockland/Orange, a reincarnation of the old Ben Gilman seat – is really more Democratic than the Obama percentages suggest).

Upstate, it is very possible to create a Democratic dummymander (as several of the maps on this site did last year in my opinion).  You need to leave some Republican vote sinks.  My map does this, aiming for a 7-4 split north of Maurice Hinchey’s now Hudson Valley-centered district.  Some of the 4 are within reach for an exceptionally strong Democratic candidate but only one of the 7 Democratic seats is realistically within reach for a Republican now.

This map creates just 6 districts where a Republican has a reasonable shot of winning (the new 2nd out in Suffolk County, the 24th in Rockland/Orange, and 4 districts upstate: the 28th and 29th in Central New York/Adirondacks region, and the 32nd and 34th in Western New York.  29 Democratic seats are at 58% Obama or higher, a 30th Democratic PVI seat (Bill Owen’s new 26th) is at 56% Obama, the best you can draw in that area without splitting Albany which I did not want to do.  A 30-6 delegation and not, I believe, a dummymander.  But please let me know what you think.

Eastern/Central Long Island (Districts 1-3)

District 1 (Blue) (Bishop (D) if he survives his recount… otherwise it’s his again in 2 years) Obama 59, McCain 40

Lose Republican voting areas in eastern LI and replaces them with Democratic-areas of Islip Town.  Turns a swing district into something more like the current NY-02 or NY-04.  Bishop should now be fine.

District 2 (Green) OPEN LEAN GOP Obama 46, McCain 54

Realistically this GOP vote sink is necessary to protect Bishop and Israel.  I would have drawn Peter King in here but he lives too far away (and as I said, I wanted this map to get rid of that thug of a politician).  Would be the only Republican left in the entire downstate New York delegation.

District 3 Israel (D) (Purple) Obama 59, McCain 41

All of Huntington and Babylon towns in Suffolk, finger into Nassau as currently but extends a bit further down to Hempstead and Uniondale to grab black Democratic voters to push the Obama numbers up.  Israel should like this district.

Nassau/Queens Hybrid Districts (Districts 4-10)

District 4 (Red) Ackerman Obama, 60, McCain 39

North Shore areas of Nassau that Ackerman represented before in the 1990s, non-Asian areas of northern Queens that are in his district now, and Astoria (a new area for Ackerman but put in the district to bring up the Obama numbers).  Helps out the cracking of Peter King by removing parts of his North Shore base.  Although the district drops slightly in Democratic performance from now, Ackerman or another Democrat should be fine.

District 5 (Yellow) OPEN ASIAN-INFLUENCE “MINORITY-MAJORITY COALITION” VRA DISTRICT

Obama 69, McCain 30

Asians 39%, Whites 29%, Hispanics 22%, Blacks 6%, Others 4%

If you go to smaller Wyoming-sized districts, you still have to follow the VRA.  But ethnic/racial groups that do not have enough numbers to dominate a 720,000-person district do when we’re talking more like 545,000.  This was the hardest district to draw because Dave’s redistrict app does not color-code high Asian-American census tracts as it does for Blacks or Hispanics.  Luckily, my familiarity with Queens from living in New York City for 6 years helped me somewhat in knowing roughly where Asians reside in Queens.

District 6 (Teal Green) Crowley (D) or Weiner (D) although perhaps Weiner moves back to Brooklyn and runs in my new 14th?  Obama 62, McCain 37

Leftover bits of Queens after drawing a new Hispanic VRA district (the 9th), the Asian-influence VRA district (the 5th), and the current black VRA district centered on South Queens (the 8th).  It then snakes out in Long Island to continue helping crack Peter King.  With a PVI of +9, any generic Democrat should be fine in this district.

District 7 (Gray) McCarthy (D) Obama 61, McCain 38

Dips a bit into Queens to grab excess Blacks not needed for the #10 and helps further crack Peter King by grabbing some redder precincts out of his current district.  And it gets 2% more bluer than currently is the case.  What’s not to like?

District 8 (Purple-Blue) King (R) Obama 61, McCain 39

I think Peter King is finished with this remap.  And where is he going to run if not here?

District 9 (Sky Blue) OPEN VRA HISPANIC DISTRICT

Obama 80, McCain 19

Hispanics 50%, Whites 22%, Asians 14%, Blacks 8%

Barely VRA complaint, but I think it passes legal muster as the nearest demographic group, whites, are 28% less in the district.

District 10 (Pink) Meeks (D) BLACK VRA DISTRICT

Obama 79, McCain 21

Blacks 51%, Whites 26%, Hispanics 16%, Asians 2%

Completes the cracking of GOP voters in Nassau County, and thus Peter King, by sinking the heavily Republican Five Towns and other southwest Nassau GOP areas in a black-majority district that now extends a bit into Brooklyn to equalize its population and gain the necessary blacks to remain VRA complaint.  Meeks should still be fine.

Brooklyn (Districts 11-14)

District 11 (neon green) Valasquez (D) HISPANIC VRA DISTRICT Obama 88, McCain 12

Hispanics 51%, Whites 21%, Blacks 13%, Asians 11%

With Wyoming-sized districts, Valasquez’s currently flailing in all directions district gets partitioned into Queens and Brooklyn-only successor districts.  There are just enough Hispanics in Brooklyn to make a district and its Valaquez’ for as long as she wants it.

District 12 (light blue) I’m guessing Towns (D)? VRA BLACK DISTRICT

Obama 78, McCain 22

Blacks 52%, Whites 34%, Hispanics 7%

I diluted the black share of this district and Yvette Clarke’s next-door so I could crack heavily McCain precincts in south Brooklyn and keep them away from the open #14.  Don’t know for sure whether I kept the Caribbean Blacks in one district and the African-American Blacks in another, though.  (This is mainly why the districts are drawn in the weird wrapping-around way right now).

District 13 (beige pink) Yvette Clarke (D)? VRA BLACK DISTRICT

Obama 81, McCain 19

Blacks 52%, Whites 28%, Hispanics 11%, Asians 6%

Also helps crack McCain precincts in south Brooklyn.

District 14 (ugly green) OPEN DEM SEAT Obama 69, McCain 30

Stretches from parts of Williamsburg, Fort Greene, and Park Slope down to Coney Island.  I think a Park Slope liberal like David Yassky would love this district; otherwise if Weiner wants to move back to Brooklyn he can have it.

Staten Island-Manhattan Districts (Districts 15-18)

District 15 (orange) Grimm (R) NOT MUCH LONGER!! Obama 67, McCain 32

Takes the last bits leftover in Brooklyn from drawing 4 districts, adds that to about 1/2 of Staten Island, and finishes the job by adding a bit of heavily Democratic lower Manhattan.  Shares joint-contiguity across New York Harbor with neighboring 16th with the Staten Island ferry.  Thousands of Staten Islanders take that to work each and every day – along with oodles of tourists getting a free view of the Statue of Liberty and Ground Zero.  Prior to 1982, the Staten Island district connected with a bit of Manhattan.  It’s perfectly legal.

District 16 (green) Nadler (D) Obama 69, McCain 31

Nadler helps complete the job of cracking Staten Island.  Even better his type of progressive politics causing Staten Islanders even bigger heartburn.  Want to secede from NYC?  Tough, you can’t!

District 17 (dark purple) Maloney (D) Obama 78, McCain 21



Shrinks to become just an East-Side Manhattan district, like it was before the 1990s.

District 18 (yellow) Rangel (D) VRA “MINORITY-MAJORITY COALITION DISTRICT”

Obama 94, McCain 5

Hispanics 45%, Blacks 37%, Whites 13%

Largely the same as before, without Rikers Island or a bit of upper-most Manhattan.  Due to the exponential growth of Dominicans, it is no longer possible to draw a black-majority district in Harlem anymore without crossing over into the Bronx.

Bronx-Lower Westchester Districts (Districts 19-21)

District 19 (Serrano (D) VRA HISPANIC DISTRICT

Obama 85, McCain 14

Hispanics 54%, Blacks 23%, Whites 17%

Did a bit of rejiggering of the Bronx districts to create a second Hispanic VRA district as well as an African-American one.  But Serrano should be fine.

District 20 OPEN VRA BLACK DISTRICT

Obama 89, McCain 11

Blacks 51%, Hispanics 31%, Whites 14%

One of the best outcomes in my mind of a Wyoming Rule is that it enables you to craft VRA complaint districts in areas that you ordinarily cannot now.  Such is the case of northern Bronx/Mount Vernon.  District extends a bit north to Eastchester Town in Westchester to steal GOP votes from Lowey’s district.

District 21 (maroon) Engel (D) but likely not for much longer VRA HISPANIC DISTRICT

Obama 87, McCain 12

Hispanics 58%, Whites 18%, Blacks 17%

Under the Wyoming Rule and the VRA, Bronx is going to have to have a second Hispanic district.  And with that, Engel loses a seat, unless he wishes to move to Rockland County and take on the open swing district there.  Not that I care much; I find Engel one of the least effective congressmen from the New York delegation.

Lower-Mid Hudson Valley (Districts 22-25)

District 22 (brown) Lowey (D) Obama 60, McCain 39



Most of Westchester, goes north to grab a few more Republican-leaning areas away from Hayworth in the 23rd and helps transform that district from a swing district into a lean-Democratic one now.  Lowey, who’s an institution in Westchester, should be fine.

District 23 (very light blue) Hayworth (R) but not for much longer!

Obama 58, McCain 42

This would be my home district were I still living where I grew up.  Ancestrally Republican, southern Dutchess is now becoming a swing region, in part due to people moving in from New York City and Westchester, but also in part due to the Republican party lurching right off of a cliff over the past 2 decades.  The type of Republicans this region used to support were centrists like long-serving GOP congressman Ham Fish Jr., current State Senator Steve Saland who isn’t all that bad especially on education issues, and George Pataki who is bad on education issues but pretended to be a socially liberal Republican while governor between 1995 and 2007.

Still, by going deep into Democratic areas of Westchester, it is possible to draw this district so that it has a Democratic PVI.  John Hall probably would have won reelection on these lines.

District 24 (purple) OPEN SWING DISTRICT/LEAN GOP?

Obama 51, McCain 49

Welcome to a reincarnated version of the old Ben Gilman district.  Going by Obama percentages alone would suggest that this is a lean-GOP district.  However, for some reason or another, Obama didn’t sit well with a lot of Jewish Rockland and southern Orange voters; similarly, he didn’t earn the robust vote percentages out of Long Island that Clinton and Gore received.  Perhaps a lingering 9-11 effect?  Well, whatever the reason, Rockland and southern Orange are heavily Jewish regions that tend to support Democrats at the state and local level.  A Republican can win here but it has to be a Republican in the mold of Ben Gilman, who even when he was serving in congress (1972-2002) was considered a RINO.  I like our chances in this district even though I drew it this way to maximize the Democratic chances in the 23rd and the 25th next door.

District 25 (pink) Hinchey (D) Obama 59, McCain 40



Hinchey finally gets a Catskills-Hudson Valley only district instead of his squiggling around all over the place!  I love the Wyoming Rule!!

Central New York-Capital Region

District 26 (grey) Gibson (R) vs. Owens (D) LEAN DEMOCRATIC  Obama 56, McCain 42



Being purely tactical here, I combined the most Democratic areas of both the current 20th and the 23rd, excising out the most Republican regions of each (Jefferson, Lewis, northern Oneida, Hamilton, Fulton, etc. in the 23rd; Saratoga in the current 20th).  While I do not like blue Dog DINO Owens, he has shown moxy in winning not once but twice a district that never elected a Democrat before in something like a century.  Now he has a district that has a lean-Democratic PVI… and without having to cut Albany in half.

District 27 (neon green) Tonka (D) Obama 60, McCain 39

The Albany outlaying region is slowly turning against national Democrats.  Decided here to shore up Tonka a little by grabbing Saratoga Springs.  The neighboring 28th is one of 4 GOP vote sinks in upstate New York so this makes a bit of sense.

District 28 (lilac) OPEN GOP SEAT Hoffman probably? (Ugh!) Obama 47, McCain 52

The consequence of making a safer district for Bill Owens is that we probably also get Doug Hoffman.  Oh well….

District 29 (green/gray) Hanna (R) Obama 47, McCain 51

A lean-GOP vote sink in upstate New York because frankly Oneida County has too many frigging Republicans and because under the Wyoming Rule, there’s no place really for them to go but here.  also, I wanted to a safer district for Maffei near Syracuse and an open Democratic college-towns district near the Binghamton-Ithaca area.  So, Hanna gets a safish district.  Arcuri could make a comeback, though, as it isn’t all that Republican.

District 30 (light red) Maffei? (D) Obama 58, McCain 40

I think Dan Maffei is well primed for a comeback with these lines.  Includes along with all of Syracuse-dominating Onondaga County, most of Oswego, including the university town that is bound to turn out big for President Obama in 2012.

District 31 (cream) OPEN DEMOCRAT SEAT

Obama 57, McCain 41

I had a lot of fun creating this one.  In addition to grabbing pockets of Democratic voters from Central New York, the Southern Tier, and the Finger Lakes, it is a community of interest district: it is a universities and colleges district.  SUNY-Oneonta, Hartwicke College, SUNY-Binghamton (my alma mater), Ithaca College, Cornell University, SUNY-Cortland, the list goes on and on.  And I think a liberal/progressive in the mold of Maurice Hinchey would do just fine here.

District 32 (red-orange) Tom Reed (R) Obama 43, McCain 56

This is the most Republican district in New York, and serves as one of four GOP vote sinks in Upstate to ensure the election of 7 Democrats in neighboring districts.  Worth the trade in my opinion.  Takes most of the Republican areas of the Southern Tier and connects them via a narrow corridor in Ontario County to uber-GOP Wayne County (the reason why Maffei lost btw).

Rochester-area

District 33 (blue) Slaughter (D) Obama 63, McCain 36

Could have risked it and created another Democratic district in Western New York other than the 3 I have created there.  But let’s face it; Slaughter is getting on in years, the suburbs of Monroe County aren’t nearly as blue as those of Erie, and it just ain’t worth it when you already are running up the score downstate where there are more reliably Democratic votes to unpack.  This district therefore consists of the entire city of Rochester and its immediate suburbs, safely Democratic even when Slaughter decides to retire.

Buffalo-area

District 34 (green) Lee (R) Obama 44, McCain 54

Republican suburbs of Erie County, the heavily GOP GLOW region between Rochester and Buffalo, and parts of Ontario County left over from the 32d.  A safe GOP district for as long as Lee wants it, designed this way to ensure a Democratic victory in the neighboring 35th and 36th seats.

District 35 (purple) OPEN DEMOCRATIC SEAT

Obama 58, McCain 40

A reincarnation of the old LaFalce seat, without its little finger into Rochester.  A generic Democrat should do just fine here.

District 36 (orange) Huggins (D) Obama 58, McCain 40

Little changed from current district in being a Erie-Chautauqua hybrid, but gains bluer portions of Buffalo to raise its Democratic performance a bit.  Remember in 2002, the district was drawn to be a district that a Republican, namely Jack Quinn, could win.

Oregon is the latest guinea pig in my experiment with Wyoming Rule redistricting. Because under the rule, the number of seats in the House are apportioned by dividing the U.S. population by the population of its least populous state, Wyoming, Oregon would add two districts to its existing five.

Somehow, I managed to draw a 5-1-1 map for Democrats, although part of it is strong incumbency value in Oregon…and part of it is that Oregon is much more liberal on the federal level than it is on the state level.

Unfortunately, the app doesn’t have voter information for Oregon; fortunately, I did most of my division along county lines, and most of the rest of my division along lines I’m familiar with as a former Oregon resident.

OR-01 (safe Democratic)

Interestingly enough, when I originally drew this Wyoming Rule-sized district, the neat little combination of adjacent Washington and Columbia counties was the perfect size. Then I realized I was still using the 2000 Census data rather than the 2008 population projections, and that went to hell because the western Portland suburbs have positively exploded population-wise over the past decade. So I had to chop out the western halves of those counties, removing a lot of more conservative, rural areas to create a district that, especially with Yamhill County gone too, is even safer for Democratic Rep. David Wu. I say “even safer” because a lot of non-Oregonians are under the impression Wu isn’t completely fireproof in his current district. In 2004, Wu won going away despite being forced to admit to late-breaking claims of attempted date rape, against a highly qualified, moderate candidate with gangbusters fundraising in a cycle Republican enough that Oregonians cast the state’s electoral votes for Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts by an uncomfortably close four-point margin while passing a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage in a state that today, just a few years later, has an openly gay man as mayor of its largest city; has the highest-ranking openly bisexual politician in the country in Secy. Kate Brown, first in line to the governorship; and has both of the nation’s only two openly gay state Supreme Court justices, both of whom were elected by popular vote. In 2010, amid a 63-seat loss for House Democrats nationally, Wu won by a double-digit margin over a challenger endorsed by the highly influential and fairly liberal Portland daily newspaper The Oregonian. If Wu is safe now, he will live forever here, even without the little spur into the western Multnomah County suburbs.

OR-02 (safe Republican)

This was one of the trickiest districts to draw, which is funny, because on the current map, it’s obviously just the half of the state east of the Cascades. But recent population growth in Deschutes County has complicated the traditional breakdown of electoral politics in Oregon, with exploding Bend nearly handing the county to Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois in 2008; Sen. John McCain of Arizona only won Deschutes County by 0.3% in the worst showing by a Republican there since 1964. This year, Republican Jim Huffman appears to have won the county over Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden, the incumbent, by a whopping 22 votes in a year Republicans almost won the Oregon gubernatorial election for the first time since 1982, when moderate Gov. Victor Atiyeh blew now-Gov. Ted Kulongoski out of the water (how times change). Because districts are smaller under the Wyoming Rule anyway, I decided to cut out Central Oregon, including Deschutes County, and because Bend is by far the largest population center in the current district, that left me with a lot of ground to make up despite the fact each district is much less populous now. To make up for it, the district absorbed all of Josephine County and extended slightly upward into Douglas County. Instead of being just an Eastern Oregon district, it is now effectively Eastern and Southern Oregon, minus the Central Oregon subregion. Rep. Greg Walden, a Republican known to be close to incoming House Speaker John Boehner, would be fine here if his Hood River residence wasn’t drawn out of the district. I think he would probably move east to run here again, although if he chose not to, State Senate Minority Leader Ted Ferrioli of John Day would probably be the Republicans’ strongest potential candidate. If former Sen. Gordon Smith of Pendleton, defeated by now-Sen. Jeff Merkley in 2008, decided to run, he would be a very strong candidate, but he might be too moderate for this intensely red district’s Republican primary voters.

OR-03 (safe Democratic)

Instead of containing most of part of Clackamas County, this district is now Multnomah County-only, containing nearly all of Portland proper. Just to give you an idea of how safe Democratic Rep. Earl Blumenauer is here, he destroyed challenger Delia Lopez in the portion of Multnomah County now in his district by a better-than-3:1 margin. In the small part of Multnomah County now in OR-01 that has been reallocated to this compact district, Wu did equally well. This would be one of the safest Democratic districts in the country.

OR-04 (likely Democratic)

I took great pains here to keep Rep. Peter DeFazio, Democrat of Springfield, in this drawing of the district. Somehow, despite being one of the most left-wing members of the House, DeFazio is able to win reelection in a swingish district even when he barely campaigns. With the district stripped out and reapportioned as an Oregon Coast district extending a finger out to take in the twin cities of Eugene and Springfield, which drive the strong Democratic bias of Lane County, I doubt DeFazio would have much trouble. The Oregon Coast is traditionally union territory, and although unions don’t have as much sway in Oregon as they do in some other states, most of the coastal counties are good for Democrats at the federal level.

OR-05 (likely Democratic)

There are two important things to note about this district. First, Marion and Clackamas counties may be swingy on the state level, but on the federal level, they generally prefer Democrats. Second, Yamhill and Polk counties are much less friendly to Democrats at every level, and indeed, they are among the most conservative counties in the Willamette River Valley (although Linn County is by far the most conservative). Despite that, and despite the fact that on paper, this district looks like a tossup, I think it’s likely Democratic. Without the numbers, it’s hard to justify my reasoning here, but basically it goes like this: Chris Dudley may have won practically this entire district in the gubernatorial race, but Obama carried it in 2008 and Rep. Kurt Schrader, the incumbent Democrat, defied the polls in a serious way to win this district so frequently mentioned as a potential Republican pickup, so consistently held by a Democrat. Schrader, who wife is a state senator from Canby (still locked in an as-yet-undecided race for reelection, by the way), has actually been drawn out of this district, but I think a Salem-area Democrat like Brian Clem, a fairly young state representative who has stated his ambitions for higher office, would be a strong candidate here. Fellow Salem-area state Rep. Vicki Berger would probably be the Republicans’ strongest candidate, but she would slot in to the left of several Blue Dogs as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, so she would probably fail to win the nomination. West Linn-based state Rep. Scott Bruun, who won the Republican nomination this year, has been drawn out of the district along with Schrader.

OR-06 (likely Democratic)

Schrader and Bruun both wound up in this new Portland-area district, which covers the swingy Clackamas County suburbs of Oregon’s largest city, as well as eastern Multnomah County. Fiscally conservative, wealthy Lake Oswego and Wilsonville are more than balanced out in this district by strongly Democratic, working-class Gresham and Milwaukee. Lake Oswego is rapidly turning blue anyway, preferring former (and now future) Gov. John Kitzhaber over Chris Dudley and Schrader over Bruun this year, what with the Oregon Republican Party forgetting what made Vic Atiyeh and Gordon Smith so popular (hint: a combination of bipartisan credentials and socially moderate, environmentally conscious positions). It is entirely possible a rematch between Schrader and Bruun could take place, or that failed gubernatorial candidate Chris Dudley could mount a bid for the House from his Lake Oswego mansion. I think this district should be pretty good for Democrats, though.

OR-07 (swing)

This district includes the tiny Republican counties of Wheeler and Sherman, as well as the larger Republican counties of Crook and Linn, as well as the Democratic counties of Hood River and Benton and the swingy, blueing counties of Deschutes and Wasco. It also borrows large chunks of Democratic Lane County (excluding especially liberal Eugene and Springfield, though) and Republican Douglas County. To be blunt, I have no idea what will happen in this district, although I suspect that if current demographic trends and growth rates hold, it will be solid territory for the Democrats by the time of the next redistricting in 2022. As it is, I think it may tilt Republican. Walden has been drawn into this district, and while he could win here, I think he might prefer to run in his current OR-02. Freshman State Sen. Chris Telfer of Bend, who represents much of Deschutes County and waged an unsuccessful bid for state treasurer this year, may be a stronger candidate to run on the Republican side. State Sen. Rick Metsger of Welches, who did not seek reelection this year, is a potential Democratic candidate (he lost the Democratic primary for secretary of state to Brown in 2008).

Thoughts on the map or the Wyoming Rule?

I applied the Wyoming Rule, stating that each congressional district in the country should have roughly the same population as the smallest state’s at-large district, to North Carolina. Redistricting is gruesome in North Carolina, and with 17 districts, it’s even nastier. I came up with four safe Democratic districts (all of them VRA districts, either with black majorities or minority-majority coalitions), eight probable Republican districts, and five swing districts, ensuring electoral politics in the Tarheel State with this map would be pretty exciting.

Marvel at the atrocity I have committed. For anyone who is curious, going off 2008 population estimates, each district contains roughly between 472,500 and 474,500 people.

NC-01 (safe Democratic)

41% white, 54% black

66% Obama, 34% McCain

This is one district I did manage to make more compact. It remains black-majority and acts as a Democratic vote sink in swingy eastern North Carolina. Rep. G.K. Butterfield, the Democrat who currently holds this seat, would have no new obstacles here.

NC-02 (swing)

78% white, 12% black

51% Obama, 48% McCain

This is where things start getting ugly. After surveying the map I drew for the Raleigh-Durham area, I felt like I needed to take a shower. Rep.-elect Renee Ellmers, a Tea Party Republican loathed by the GOP establishment for some reason, has been drawn out, as she currently resides in Dunn in Harnett County, which isn’t even a part of this district. Meanwhile, I believe Democratic Rep. Brad Miller of NC-13, who resides in Raleigh, has been drawn into the district. Realistically, Ellmers has little chance of holding the current NC-02 in 2012, and Republicans would be better off running a more competent candidate in this district anyway.

NC-03 (safe Republican)

78% white, 18% black

41% Obama, 58% McCain

This district hasn’t changed much, absorbing some of the more conservative parts of NC-01 and ceding a bit of ground where the African American population has risen at a disproportionate rate. The only major change is that it has been extended along the Atlantic coast, absorbing some of the southern suburbs of Wilmington. Republican Rep. Walter B. Jones of Farmville, a town in western Pitt County, would easily win another term here.

NC-04 (safe Democratic)

42% white, 44% black, 9% Latino

73% Obama, 26% McCain

If you thought NC-02 was ugly, this is even worse. It effectively combines the African American precincts of Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Garner, Sanford, and Fayetteville, linking them via spindly threads of rural countryside and wilderness. Rep. David Price, the incumbent Democrat here, has been drawn out of this district. Price lives in Chapel Hill, home to the University of North Carolina. Chapel Hill, for what it’s worth, is just too white to include in this district without the risk of upsetting its VRA status depending on demographic rates. Democrats should romp in this district regardless.

NC-05 (likely Republican)

69% white, 25% black

45% Obama, 55% McCain

Northern North Carolina is mostly white and mostly Republican, but the inclusion of Vance County and parts of Nash County, as well as a cut of ultra-liberal Chapel Hill, in this district make it a bit less absurdly partisan than the current iteration. Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx, who lives in Avery County, would have to move in order to run for reelection here, but I’m inclined to think somebody a bit younger and less emblematic of conservative obstinacy would make a better candidate for the GOP here anyway. A Democrat could certainly win this seat in a good year, and indeed, it is possible Price has been drawn into this district (I’m not exactly sure where he claims his address). But the quandary of having part of a liberal college town in an otherwise Republican district is that students might not get out the vote for a Blue Dog, and socially conservative ancestral Democrats might not vote for a progressive.

NC-06 (safe Republican)

81% white, 11% black

43% Obama, 56% McCain

This district effectively drowns what is left of liberal Chapel Hill in the bathtub of rural conservatism. In my first drawing, this district had not changed a lot from the current version represented by Rep. Howard Coble, a long-serving Republican, but the new version crawls evilly into Orange County to keep Chapel Hill out of a swingier district. If Coble wants another term, he should have no problem getting one in this district, even if he has to run against Price, who is probably drawn in here. As with NC-05, though, Democrats will have a wicked balancing act to perform, as well as a lot of electoral ground to make up, if they want to flip this seat.

NC-07 (safe Republican)

71% white, 21% black

42% Obama, 57% McCain

This redrawing would represent a fait accompli for the Republicans, drawing out Rep. Mike McIntyre, the Lumberton-based Democratic incumbent. It’s another district with a face only a mother could love, but the loss of Wilmington’s majority-black northern precincts and the excision of outlying Democratic-friendly areas like Robeson County take it from being a swing district to being a fairly solid Republican district, especially with McIntyre out of the picture. It trades a few rural precincts with NC-03 with no real effect otherwise, simply a matter of working out the numbers.

NC-08 (safe Democratic)

47% white, 33% black, 12% Native

58% Obama, 41% McCain

If you were curious as to where McIntyre went, he was drawn into this district currently held by Rep. Larry Kissell, a fellow Democrat. This new drawing sucks in pieces of Wilmington, Fayetteville, and Aberdeen in exchange for Cabarrus and Stanly counties. It is narrowly a minority-majority coalition district, with a not-insignificant Native American population, and it should be solid for Democrats regardless of whether Kissell, McIntyre, or someone else is the party’s 2012 nominee.

NC-09 (likely Republican)

81% white, 11% black

44% Obama, 55% McCain

Despite sacrificing its southern and western portions in favor of extending further north into Cabarrus County, this district serves the same function as it did before: dividing Charlotte along racial lines. Republican Rep. Sue Myrick, who I believe would still reside in this redrawn district, isn’t going to have any trouble getting reelected here. In the event Myrick has been drawn out, any other Republican might have a bit tougher haul but would probably still be favored.

NC-10 (safe Republican)

85% white, 8% black

41% Obama, 57% McCain

Okay kid, here’s where things get racially homogeneous. This redrawn district would be overwhelmingly Republican if it didn’t stick a long spur into liberal Asheville, intentionally diluting that population center’s influence. Instead it’s just very Republican, and it’s hard to see a Democrat picking it up. Rep. Patrick McHenry of Cherryville, a Republican, has been drawn out of this district with its move north from Gaston County.

NC-11 (safe Republican)

87% white, 7% black

40% Obama, 59% McCain

This is that pesky district where Shuler, a Blue Dog, seems to be hanging on just fine despite determined attempts to dislodge him. This redrawing is effectively just the most conservative parts of western North Carolina, with its sole purpose being to get rid of Shuler. Republicans would benefit from a shrunk-down district excising Democratic-friendly Asheville, and indeed, Shuler winning a district now-President Barack Obama lost by 19 points in 2008 seems like a stretch even for him.

NC-12 (safe Democratic)

38% white, 49% black, 8% Latino

75% Obama, 24% McCain

This is another slimmed-down version of an existing monstrosity. Democratic Rep. Melvin Watt’s district is famous for being one of the most egregious examples of gerrymandering in the county. Fortunately, this Wyoming Rule map puts it to shame, with multiple examples of even grosser gerrymandered districts. The smaller version of this district omits the spur into Winston-Salem and includes only southern and eastern Greensboro. Despite my personal distaste for Watt, he would have no excuse not to win reelection here.

NC-13 (swing)

79% white, 15% black

47% Obama, 52% McCain

This district simply ended up in a completely different place than it currently occupies. The current NC-13 includes most of Wake County and a great deal of northern North Carolina, using Raleigh’s Democratic tilt to offset the conservative tendencies of Rockingham, Caswell, Person, and Granville counties in what amounts to a big fat Democratic gerrymander. Because there is literally no overlap between the current and redrawn versions of this district, Miller has been drawn out and placed in NC-02, as previously mentioned. The new NC-13 would cover a swath of the central part of the state, including the cities of Kannapolis and Concord in Cabarrus County, stretching down to the South Carolina border west of Charlotte (there is actually an outside chance that Myrick, the NC-09 incumbent, may find herself living here). Because of the inclusion of Cherryville, Gaston County, the long-serving Republican McHenry has certainly been drawn into this district. It’s a swing district, and a savvy Blue Dog Democrat could win it, but I think it tilts Republican, especially if McHenry or Myrick run.

NC-14 (likely Republican)

90% white, 6% black

43% Obama, 55% McCain

This new district in North Carolina under the Wyoming Rule is mostly left over from Shuler’s gutted NC-11 and McHenry’s dismembered NC-10, with Foxx drawn in along with parts of the current incarnation of NC-05. It’s not as strongly Republican as it might have been, but most of liberal Asheville is here putting a weight on the scale due to its size. Considering that Shuler might rather move here from NC-11 to run, I would love to see him battle it out with Foxx. The demographics here ultimately would work in Foxx’s favor whether she ran against Shuler or another Democrat.

NC-15 (swing)

72% white, 18% black

48% Obama, 51% McCain

Yes, you’re seeing it right: this district includes the east and west sides, but not the middle third, of Harnett County. For all its gerrymandered-to-hell appearance, this is a swing district, carved up in a hideous way partly to permit the existence of the two VRA districts it borders, partly to keep it competitive enough to make surrounding districts more solidly partisan. Ellmers has been drawn into this district, although I’m not sure it’s conservative enough for her to win. Getting around in this district looks like it would be hell, and the cultural incongruity between Durham and Dunn might pose an issue in an election year.

NC-16 (swing)

74% white, 18% black

47% Obama, 52% McCain

Amazing how a district of leftovers can end up being perhaps the most compact one on the entire map. This all-new district covers most of Winston-Salem, along with rural Yadkin County and large swaths of Stokes, Surry, and Wilkes counties. I don’t believe any member of the House of Representatives lives within these district boundaries, but either a conservative Democrat or a cautious Republican could win here. It’s a swing district, but it tilts Republican.

NC-17 (swing)

78% white, 16% black

47% Obama, 52% McCain

The last new district is materially similar to the previous one in some ways. Demographically, it comes out looking much the same. It includes most of Guilford and Rockingham counties, serving to sponge up Democratic-friendly areas that could change NC-05 or NC-06 from being Republican districts to being swing districts, as this Republican-tilting district is. I don’t think a current House member lives here, meaning we would probably see a new face in Congress representing it in 2013. I think that face is likely to be Republican.

Comments, either on the map or on the Wyoming Rule?

• AK-Sen: There’s yet another lawsuit coming out of the Joe Miller camp, this one filed in state court. It essentially rehashes claims he’s already made at the federal level, but adds two new allegations: voters without identification were allowed to take ballots in some precincts, and that in a few precincts handwriting samples suggest that the same person completed multiple ballots. Miller’s ultimate goal is a hand count of the entire race, which could delay Lisa Murkowski’s swearing-in past January. The question, however, is starting to arise: who’s paying for all this? None of Miller’s former friends seem interested any more: the NRSC has gone silent, and the Tea Party Express still offers verbal support but isn’t ponying up any money. Only Jim DeMint continues to offer any financial support (with a Joe Miller fundraising button on his Senate Conservatives website).

• MT-Sen: This could complicates matters for Denny Rehberg, turning this primary into an establishment vs. teabagger duel. Two right-wing groups, Concerned Women PAC and Gun Owners of America, have already lent their support to businessman Steve Daines, who has already announced his bid for the GOP nod here.

• NY-Sen: Kirsten Gillibrand has to do it all over again in 2012 (this one was just a special election), and rumors are that former Bush administration official Dan Senor, who spurned a run this time, is interested in a run next time. It’s hard to imagine, if Gillibrand could top 60% in a year as bad as this, that Senor could somehow overperform that in a presidential year.

• MN-Gov: The recount is officially on. The State Canvassing Board, whom you all got to know really well in early 2009, ruled that the 8,770 vote lead for Mark Dayton is less than one-half of a percentage point and that an automatic recount is triggered. The count starts on Monday and should end in mid-December, allowing time for swearing in on Jan. 3 (unless things really go haywire). This comes after a variety of legal maneuvering from both sides, including a fast Minnesota Supreme Court ruling against Tom Emmer, in response to his desire to force counties to comb through voter rolls and eliminate votes that were “excessively cast.” No word yet on whether the Board will honor Dayton’s request for ways to streamline the process (and minimize Emmer’s chances for challenges).

• MT-Gov: There had been rumors that Democratic ex-Rep. Pat Williams would seek the Dem gubernatorial nomination (potentially setting up a match with his successor, ex-Rep. Rick Hill), despite being 72 years old. He’s now saying that he won’t. Williams is so old-school that he used to represent MT-01, before the state got smooshed together into one at-large district.

• CT-05: Random rich guy Mark Greenberg, who finished third in the GOP primary in the 5th this year (although with nearly 30% of the vote), says he’ll be running again in 2012. Added incentive: he says he expects this to be an open seat as Chris Murphy runs for Senate.

• FL-17: Newly elected Frederica Wilson is already challenging the old ways of the House… going after the long-standing prohibition against wearing hats on the House floor. She says it’s “sexist,” saying that women’s indoor hat use is different from men’s. Wilson owns at least 300 hats, she says. (If Regina Thomas ever makes it to the House, maybe the Hat Caucus can gain some momentum.)

• MD-01: Recently-defeated Frank Kratovil seems like one of the likeliest losses to run again in 2012, especially since the Dem-controlled Maryland legislature is likely to serve him up a much Dem-friendlier district (as many of our in-house mapmakers have suggested). He isn’t saying yes yet, but says he will “consider” it.

• NH-02: Another possible re-run is Ann McLane Kuster, who performed pretty well in a narrow loss to Charlie Bass in the open 2nd. There have been lots of Beltway rumors that her run is imminent, and some are pointing to encouragement straight from the White House for her to try again.

• NY-01: We’ve essentially finished the absentee ballot count, and the news is very good here: Tim Bishop, after leading by only 15 last night, is now leading by a comparatively-gargantuan 235 with all absentees counted. However, we’re nowhere near a resolution, as attention now turns to the court battle over 2,000 challenged ballots (Randy Altschuler has challenged 1,261, while Bishop has challenged 790). Still, Bishop’s spokesperson is saying they’re “very confident” that they’ve won this one.

• NY-23: Yeesh, Bill Owens is actually saying he might vote for John Boehner for Speaker or abstain instead of Nancy Pelosi when it comes to a floor vote, saying Pelosi is too liberal. (This despite saying he voted for her, rather than Heath Shuler, in the caucus vote.) Also, not that it matters at this point, but this race wound up being closer than the Election Day count indicated: Matt Doheny picked up 1,982 previously-unknown votes in the recanvass of Fulton County, taking Owens’ margin down to 1,795 overall, and making it all the clearer that we owe this victory entirely to 3rd-party bearer-of-cat-fud Doug Hoffman.

• Odds and ends: The Fix has a massive list of people considering rematches in 2012, most of which we’ve already dealt with before (including Kuster and Kratovil, above). Other names that we haven’t listed include Brad Ellsworth (either for Gov, Senate, or his old IN-08), Christine O’Donnell in Delaware (not unexpected, since she runs every 2 years anyway), Glenn Nye, and Allen Boyd (despite his losing very thoroughly to Steve Southerland).

• AL-St. House: The inevitable realignment at the legislative level in Alabama finally happened, and happened all at once instead of slow drips. Four conservative Democrats in the state House changed to the GOP, bringing the GOP numbers up to not just a majority but a supermajority in one fell swoop. The Madison County (Huntsville) Clerk also announced her switch, too.

• CA-AG: At this point, it’s all over but the shouting in the AG race, as Kamala Harris now leads Steve Cooley by 43,000 votes (with 500K votes still left to count). While the AP hasn’t called it, LA Weekly has decided it’s a done deal.

• Chicago mayor: Roland Burris has aparently thrown his well-traveled hat into the ring for the Chicago mayoral race, as he’ll need a new job in a week or so. Supporters filed his candidate paperwork yesterday, the deadline for filing (although he has yet to officially say that he’s running). Somehow, I can only see this helping Rahm Emanuel, by further splitting the African-American vote (already divided between Danny Davis and another ex-Senator, Carol Mosely Braun).

• Redistricting: There’s been some sudden buzz about switching North Carolina to an independent redistricting commission (which, of course, has to do with the GOP seizing control of the state legislature). In what is not a surprise, though, the GOP has no interest in giving up its newfound power, saying that (despite a recent PPP poll showing wide support for such a commission) there isn’t any time to move on the constitutional amendment that would create a commission (something that they generally supported up until, y’know, this month). Also on the redistricting front, check out the Fix’s latest installment in its state-by-state series, focusing today on Indiana, where GOP control over the trifecta is likely to make things worse for IN-02’s Joe Donnelly (just how much worse, we have yet to find out)… and, if they wanted to experiment with dummymanders, possibly IN-07’s Andre Carson, too.

• Demographics: Here’s some interesting demographic slice-and-dice from the Washington Post: Dems increased their vote share in big counties (500K+) from 49% in 1994 to 54% this year, but lost even further in smaller counties, from 43% in 1994 to 39% this year. The districts the GOP won were disproportionately older, whiter, and less educated. And on a related note, check out these maps and the interesting ways they represent population density around the U.S. Note any similarities between these maps and where Democratic votes are concentrated?

First of all, this is my first diary and my first redistricting so be gentle! Also, there is one small error in the bigger pictures, however it is fixed in the zoom ones.

I basically did a very dem friendly redistricting of Pennslyvania under the Wyoming plan. This gives PA 25 seats of about 491,242 that MassGOP has made diaries on.

Without further ado, the map: http://img.imgcake.com/pajpgbu…

Without counties/cities: http://img.imgcake.com/paunmar…

Zoom on Philadelphia: http://img.imgcake.com/phillyu…

East PA: http://img.imgcake.com/eastpai…

SEPA: http://img.imgcake.com/southea…

District 1 (Blue): Obama 73%

Plurality Minority  

Goes from Philly to chester county, covering most of delco along the way. I was surprised how democratic the district was. 49 W 44 B

District 2 (Green): Obama 58%

Just gave the district a chunk of philly then tried to make it more conservative, so it went into Bucks, Montgomery and most of South Delaware. Should be reasonably safe.

District 3 (Purple): Obama 56%

Northeast Philly and wraps around the 2nd and 4th. Most bucks, but also Northampton and Lehigh. Would lean strongly D, and it would only get moreso. Would be vulnerable in another 2010 like year.

District 4 (Red): Obama 55%

Takes Allentown and half of Bethleham. Goes into Montgomery, Bucks, a lot of lehigh, and northhampton. Should be ok in most years.

District 5 (Yellow): Obama 55%

Rest of Bethleham, Easton, and most of Hazleton. All of carbon and monroe counties. Only 2 people off the population goal. Should lean Dem.

District 6 (Teal): Obama 53%

Wilks-Barre, the scranton suburbs, a tiny piece of scranton, all of Montour, columbia counties and the majority of wyoming, luzurne and lackawanna. (Thank you the office for spelling of that). Would tilt D but probably require a blue dog.

District 7 (Silver): Obama 54%

The funniest district in the state, containing the rest of scranton, most or all of 3 northeastern counties, and going all the way to Penn State. Leans D

District 8 (Violet): Obama 64%

This one is ugly. Starts in Philly and just goes out. Snakes through Montgomery to get some of the central pa counties like Snyder and Mifflin. Easy D.

District 9 (Sky Blue) Obama 58%

The most Liberal parts of delco and montco along with eastern chester county. Leans D pretty heavily.

District 10 (Pink) Obama 53%

Harrisburg, Half of Lancaster and coatsville. Pretty tough to hold but def doable. Leans slightly

District 11 (Lime Green): Obama 73%

Starts in Philly and snakes.

District 12 (Robin’s Egg Blue): Obama 57%

Starts in Philly and snakes up to central. Easy Dem.

District 13 (Tan): Obama 89%

VRA district. 29 W 46 B 19 H

District 14 (Gold): Obama 39%

Huge by Land Area, takes a ton of the conservative areas into one votesink.

District 15 (Orange): Obama 53%

The one I’m perhaps most proud of. Goes from York to Pittsburgh. Takes Altoona, Johnstown, and some of the bigger Pitt suburbs. Blue dog should take this one easily.

District 16 (Slightly darker lime green): Obama 50%

Reading and the other half of Lancaster. True toss-up, very winnable.

District 17 (Navy Blue) Obama 40%

The surprisingly heavily populated York, Adams and Franklin counties in south central pa. Not a shot in hell for us to win it.

District 18 (Bright yellow): Obama 41%

Scraps. Takes parts of a lot of other counties. Easy R win.

District 19 (Pea Green): Obama 40%

A lot of the Southwestern counties. Easy R win.

Pitt close up: http://img.imgcake.com/pittclo…

District 20 (Light Pink): Obama 52%

Parts of Pitt and Washington county and Fayette county. Lean D or Toss-Up

District 21 (Blood Red): Obama 54%

East Pittsburgh, some suburbs and then it just snakes out east. Lean D

District 22 (Poo Brown): Obama 38%

One of the most conservative districts in the country. Easy easy R.

District 23 (Baby Blue): Obama 54%

Erie, Saint Mary’s and a lot of the more liberal areas in the Northwest PA. Lean D

District 24 (Dark Purple): Obama 55%

Lots of pittsburgh and Allegheny county. Likely D

District 25 (Pink-Red Mesh): Obama 49%

What was left. Surprised it was still winnable for us.

Lean Dem or better: 18

Toss-up: 2

Easy R: 5

Thoughts?