Tag: Carly Fiorina

• DE-Sen: It’d D-Day for the Republican Party: the “D” could stand for “Delaware,” or maybe for the “dipshits” in the Tea Party who we’ll see tonight whether they’ve fully succeeded in taking over the asylum. At any rate, the state GOP is rolling out a robocall from a former Christine O’Donnell 2008 staffer who’s now supporting Mike Castle; she says O’Donnell isn’t a “true conservative” (although that’s evidenced by her inability to get her own spending under control). O’Donnell’s camp responds saying the disgruntled staffer was fired after a week, rather than leaving on her own. The Beltway CW of today, at least as far as Politico goes, seems to be that Castle has regained some momentum over the last few days what with the increased scrutiny of O’Donnell, pointing to changes in responses to phonebanking in recent days.

• FL-Sen: Here’s an interesting endorsement for Charlie Crist, that may help him with the growing Haitian community in the Miami area. Haitian-American State Rep. Yolly Roberson, who recently lost the FL-17 Democratic primary, gave his backing to Crist instead of Kendrick Meek, whose newly-vacated seat he was vying to occupy.

• NV-Sen, NV-Gov: The first of three (count ’em) polls out in the Nevada Senate race has what just about everyone else has seen in this quickly-getting-overpolled race: Harry Reid leads Sharron Angle in the low single digits. Ipsos/Reuter’s second poll of the race gives Reid a 46-44 lead. (It was 48-44 in favor of Reid in their first poll in early August.) Apparently this wasn’t the respected pollster showing a single-digit gubernatorial race that Jon Ralston was rumbling about, though: their gubernatorial numbers are 60 for Brian Sandoval, and 31 for Rory Reid. (The trendlines were 50-39 for Sandoval, so that’s quite a drop, especially when considering that the Senate race has barely budged.)

• WA-Sen: Republicans hoping for some sort of reconciliation in Washington are out of luck. Clint Didier is still holding out on endorsement for Dino Rossi, popping up briefly yesterday to tell Politico that he won’t do so unless Rossi capitulates to Didier’s three demands regarding action items.

• RI-Gov: Michael Bloomberg parachuted into yet another race with an endorsement, as part of his nebulous goals of advancing some sort of center-left post-partisan zeitgeist. He offered his backing to moderate GOPer-turned-liberal indie Lincoln Chafee, who seems to fit the Bloomberg worldview pretty well.

• NY-St. Sen.: Veteran political reporter Liz Benjamin is out with her handicapping of the New York state Senate races this year (New York elects all Senators every two years, so everybody’s up this year, as always). She points to seven Tossups, four of which are Dems and three of which are GOPers (thanks in large part to open seats). That means that control of the body, currently 32-29 (with 1 previously-GOP vacancy), is truly up for grabs this year. It’s all presented in a nice-looking map format, although the functionality needs some help.

• SSP TV:

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer’s campaign’s first ad emphasizes veterans, small business, and green jobs

• MO-Sen: The winning ad of the day may just be a little radio ad from Robin Carnahan, which actually uses a jingle (how many political ads do that anymore?); the song goes amusingly negative against Roy Blunt

• KY-Sen: The newest Jack Conway ad works the law & order angle, saying Rand Paul is soft on crime, while the NRSC is out with an ad that seems to be poking fun at Conway’s horse-owning ways as a means of linking him to Barack Obama… or something like that

• CO-Gov: The Colorado trainwreck continues unabated, as Tom Tancredo’s first ad is an anti-Dan Maes hit job, featuring a nice little old lady who says that Maes conned her out of her money without getting into any of the specifics

• FL-Gov: Rick Scott’s back on the air after letting his money have a few weeks off, trying yet again to tie Alex Sink to Barack Obama

• MA-Gov: An anti-Charlie Baker spot from Bay State Future hits Baker on his stewardship of the Big Dig, a 90s public works debacle that turned into a collective scar on the Massachusetts psyche

• CA-03: Ami Bera’s first ad focuses on Dan Lungren’s last minute pay raise that he gave himself as state AG, boosting his pension

• CO-07: Ed Perlmutter’s out with his first ad, a positive spot

• IL-11: Debbie Halvorson’s first ad uses testimonials from the unemployed to hit Adam Kinzinger hard for his support of free trade agreements

• OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy, similarly endangered, also opts for the negative ad route, hitting Steve Stivers for his work as banking industry lobbyist

• OH-18: Sensing a theme? Zack Space hits Bob Gibbs on his support for free trade agreements too

• PA-07: Bryan Lentz is out with two separate ads, one a basic intro spot, the other making an argument that all Dems should be making: that supporting extension of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy doesn’t jibe with wanting to reduce the deficit

• PA-08: Patrick Murphy talks to the camera to do some compare & contrast with Mike Fitzpatrick

• SD-AL: Two dueling ads from Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and Kristi Noem: Noem’s first ad is a generic attack on Washington, while Herseth tries to rebut an ad from AFF, saying, no, she’s actually conservative

• Rasmussen:

• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 46%, Dan Maes (R) 21%, Tom Tancredo (C) 25%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 48%, Sharron Angle (R) 48%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 41%, Rob Portman (R) 49%

• A Rasmussen By Any Other Name Would Still Smell: When a gigantic slew of polls for Fox News came out, showing, as one might expect from Fox, bad results for Democrats, I wasn’t surprised. Something seemed off, though: I first noticed that this wasn’t Fox’s usual pollster (which is Opinion Dynamics), but someone called Pulse. Then some of the details really made my antennae twitch: these were auto-dialed polls conducted over one day (meaning no callbacks), and the day they chose was not only a Saturday (when young people tend to out, y’know, doing things) but freakin’ 9/11! Then Taegan Goddard helpfully pointed out this, which explains it all: Pulse Research is a subsidiary of Rasmussen. You may recall some discussion earlier in the year of a new Rasmussen venture that would let people pay $600 to poll anything or anyone they wanted… that’s Pulse. So, they’re just going in the Rasmussen containment pool with the “real” Rasmussen polls; for what it’s worth, the numbers are pretty much in line with where Rasmussen sees the races, so at least we know Pulse isn’t doing anything differently.

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 43%, Meg Whitman (R) 49%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 46%, Carly Fiorina (R) 44%

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 49%, Rick Scott (R) 41%

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 41%, Charlie Crist (I) 27%

• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 38%, Brian Sandoval (R) 56%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 44%, Sharron Angle (R) 45%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 43%, John Kasich (R) 48%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 41%, Rob Portman (R) 48%

• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 40%, Tom Corbett (R) 50%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 41%, Pat Toomey (R) 47%

Opinion Research Corp. for CNN/Time (pdf) (9/2-7, registered voters, no trendlines):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 48

Carly Fiorina (R): 44

Undecided: 3

Jerry Brown (D): 46

Meg Whitman (R): 48

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Yesterday’s onslaught of CNN/Time polls has a California component, and it’s a split verdict: Barbara Boxer is squeaking by in the Senate race, while Jerry Brown is behind Meg Whitman by a small margin. While it’s tempting to say “oh, those Senate numbers are pretty good,” as with the other CNN polls, bear in mind that this is a registered voter poll. While it’s not clear how much of an enthusiasm gap we’re looking at in California compared with other states, it’s reasonable to expect that an LV screen would yield results at least a few points worse.

If you’re looking for interesting numbers from the crosstabs, what’s keeping Carly Fiorina in this is how well she’s doing with women: Boxer leads among women only 48-43. (OK, maybe it’s not that amazing, considering that Fiorina is also a woman, which is probably why the NRSC thought she’d be a good matchup in the first place.) What’s keeping Jerry Brown in this, even more counterintuitively, is how well he’s doing with people over 50: he actually leads among oldsters, 49-47, while trailing among the under-50s 48-45. (So maybe that “remember the 70s, when things didn’t suck so much?” advertising scheme makes sense in that context.)

SurveyUSA for KABC-TV (8/31-9/1, likely voters, 8/9-11 in parentheses):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (42)

Carly Fiorina (R): 48 (47)

Undecided: 1 (11)

Jerry Brown (D): 40 (43)

Meg Whitman (R): 47 (44)

Undecided: 4 (13)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Then there’s SurveyUSA’s poll from over the weekend; SurveyUSA has given Fiorina the lead in its last three polls and (with the exception of the most recent Rasmussen) is the only pollster to give her a lead. Assuming that these pollsters are polling essentially similar populations (and that’s a pretty big assumption), one might infer that the enthusiasm gap between RVs and LVs is worth about 5-6 points in California.

SurveyUSA has some better news down the ballot, although these two races also seem to have gotten closer than previous polls: Gavin Newsom leads the Lt. Governor race over Abel Maldonado, 44-39, while Proposition 19 (for the legalization and regulation of marijuana) is passing, 47-43.

• AK-Sen: It seems like Lisa Murkowski’s meetings with the Libertarian Party didn’t lead to anything conclusive (while David Haase sounded amenable, the state party sounds opposed), as the signals she’s putting out now seem to point more toward a write-in campaign, if anything. According to Roll Call, she’s “strongly considering it” and will have an announcement as early as tomorrow. In case you’re wondering about TX-22-style hilarity ensuing, the Alaska Division of Elections confirms that a voter can spell her name incorrectly and still have the vote count, which makes the prospect of a write-in campaign for Linda Mukrosky somewhat more doable.

• CO-Sen: Ken Buck may have dirty boots, but he’s been busy scrubbing his website sparkly clean. The Michael Bennet camp has been observing lots of minor changes to Buck’s website to make it more mainstream-y, with softer-sounding rewrites on his issues page on Afghanistan, stem cell research, and immigration.

• DE-Sen: In another sign that the GOP primary between Mike Castle and Christine O’Donnell isn’t dialing down, both Castle and the Tea Party Express (on behalf of O’Donnell) are both extending their previous ad buys, starting today and running through next Tuesday’s election. Again, kudos to Hotline’s Jeremy Jacobs, who knows not only the Size Of The Buy but the complete breakdown (Castle, for instance, spent $75K in the Salisbury broadcast market, $27K on statewide cable, and $43K on radio, while the TPX spent $32K on cable only). He also susses out that at the current trajectory, the TPX will reach only slightly past the halfway point on its promise to spend $250K on O’Donnell, unless they want to blow a lot of money at the last minute in the pricey Philadelphia market. Meanwhile, TPM checks out how TPX’s ongoing moneybomb for O’Donnell has been going, who has raised $89K since TPX got involved. Despite O’Donnell’s frequent attacks on Castle’s use of out-of-state money to power his campaign, they highlighted their $250+ donors, and a grand total of one (of 56) was a Delawarean.

• FL-Sen, FL-25: Biden alert! With Kendrick Meek having raised some bucks at a New York appearance with Bill Clinton last night, now he turns his attention to an upcoming fundraiser with the VPOTUS. (Expect to see the usual GOP carping about “Big Hollywood,” seeing as how the fundraiser is in Hollywood. Hollywood, Florida, that is.) 25th District candidate Joe Garcia will also be a beneficiary.

• PA-Sen: The Philadelphia Inquirer has a rundown of Pat Toomey’s past history of earmarks, in of course blatant contradiction with the pledges of austerity that define his current campaign… yet another Republican example of government largesse for me, but not for thee. In his first term in PA-15, Toomey won $9 million in earmarks, including $3 million for one company (Air Products & Chemicals) that then became his single biggest campaign contributor.

• CA-Gov: Steve Poizner seems to have finally gotten the message, if a few months on the late (and tepid) side. The Republican primary loser gave his endorsement to Meg Whitman yesterday… via press release.

• MI-Gov: Local pollster Mitchell Research is out with what appears to be their first poll of the general election in the Michigan gubernatorial race; like most pollsters, they find Republican Rick Snyder with a solid lead. He’s ahead of Democrat Virg Bernero 53-26.

• OH-Gov: Bill Clinton will be in Ohio on behalf of (Hillary endorser) Ted Strickland on the 14th, also the day of his first debate with John Kasich. Clinton will stump for Strickland in both Cleveland and Columbus.

• NC-08: With the DCCC having rolled out a GQR internal poll yesterday giving Larry Kissell a decent lead (48-36) in the 8th (on top of Kissell releasing his own internal in late August with a 49-32 lead), GOP rival Harold Johnson offered up his own poll today to show he’s still in this thing. His poll from POS finds Kissell still leading, but by a more surmountable margin: 39-34.

• NV-03: Politico has details on EMILY’s List weighing into the 3rd, with a two-week TV ad blitz going after Joe Heck on women’s health issues (like his vote against mandated insurance coverage for the HPV vaccine). While the article doesn’t have a link to the ad, let alone the Size Of The Buy, it does have a very interesting look at the advanced micro-targeting they’re using, focusing on very specific TV shows as well as Hulu and Facebook users.

• OH-16: Someone get Jim Renacci a high school history textbook, stat! When asked at the candidates’ first debate what he’d like to do about civil rights, the Republican challenger to John Boccieri retreated to Rand Paul-style teabagger boilerplate, saying “We need to get our federal government out of the way,” and that it was better dealt with as “local issues.” Yeah, because local and state governments in the 50s and 60s were the paragons of tolerance and virtue during the civil rights movement, and that federal government just came in and screwed everything up…

• DGA: If you’ve been wondering what they’re up to at the DGA, they’re out with a strategy memo that outlines the next few months. Wisely, they’re most concerned with the states with the greatest population and hence greatest redistricting impact, meaning that the smaller states with Dem-held open seats (Kansas, Wyoming, etc.) have already probably been on the losing end of their triage decisions.

• TX-St. House: We at SSP have been remiss in focusing on state legislatures in the last few months (for the same reason everyone else has — it’s hard to get good intelligence on them, and there’s too dang much to focus on just at the national level alone), but Burnt Orange Report has done a bang-up job profiling the race for the Texas state House, one of the few legislatures where the Dems are on the offensive and have a slim but legitimate shot at a flip. They’ve written up summaries of the 21 hottest races, all helpfully collected in one place at the link.

• SSP TV:

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias ad rolling out his biggest gun: backing from Barack Obama

• PA-Sen: Not one but two ads from Pat Toomey ads with pretzel logic about how his time on Wall Street tells him that one shouldn’t bail out Wall Street

• WI-Sen: Ron Johnson ad hits Russ Feingold again for being a career politician

• TX-Gov: Bill White talks about border security

• VT-Gov: Dem group Green Mountain Future hits Brian Dubie on support for keeping local nuclear plant open

• FL-24: First Suzanne Kosmas ad hits Sandy Adams on teh crazy, especially the 17th Amendment

• GA-08: Jim Marshall ad tries to outflank Austin Scott on the right on the immigration issue

• MI-01: DCCC’s 2nd IE ad goes after Dan Benishek on Social Security

• NY-25: Dan Maffei’s first ad is anti-Ann Marie Buerkle, using Sarah Palin endorsement against her

• PA-06: Manan Trivedi’s second ad this week focuses on his time as a military doctor

• Rasmussen:

• AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard (D) 38%, Jan Brewer (R-inc) 60%

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 42%, Meg Whitman (R) 46%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 42%, Carly Fiorina (R) 47%

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 38%, Rand Paul (R) 51%

• AK-Sen: I’ve got plenty of hearsay and conjecture. Those are kinds of evidence. (Ah, Lionel Hutz, always good for a quote.) Anyway, there’s lots of those kinds of evidence burning up the Twittersphere lately: maybe most significantly, the rumor that Alaska Dems are looking into getting Scott McAdams to stand down and inserting ex-Gov. Tony Knowles (the 2004 loser against Murkowski) to run in his place. Under state law, McAdams would have until 48 days before election day to drop out, but the wisdom of such a move seem uncertain, as McAdams is at least a fresh face and Knowles has two-time-loser taint. Also out there: that Lisa Murkowski is looking into some sort of independent run, which would probably have to take write-in form (although Taniel points out major practical problems with that). One other very weird alternative mentioned for Murkowski: commandeering the secessionist Alaska Independence Party. UPDATE: The Alaska state Dem party is about to hold a conference call with McAdams in which he lays out a path to victory, which certainly suggests that they aren’t abandoning him.

• NV-Sen: Is Sharron Angle following Michele Bachmann down that dark and winding path to… well, she’s already in Crazy Town, so whatever’s around the next bend beyond that. In an interview with a right-wing talk show host Bill Manders last year, Angle agreed with Manders that there were “domestic enemies” “in the walls of the Senate and the Congress.”

• WI-Sen: Here’s one more installment in the ongoing story of teabaggers adopting the “government money for me, not for thee” line of argumentation (a la Clint Didier and Stephen Fincher’s long history of happily accepting farm subsidies), disregarding the jaw-dropping hypocrisy that goes with it. It’s been revealed that Ron Johnson’s company, Paccur, got a $2.5 million government loan to pay for a 40,000 square foot expansion to its facilities. The revelation comes about a week after he said in an interview: “I have never lobbied for some special treatment or for a government payment… When you subsidize things…it doesn’t work through the free market system very well.”

• MD-Gov: Here’s a poll showing better-than-usual results for incumbent Dem governor Martin O’Malley, locked in a rematch battle with ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich. The OpinionWorks poll, on behalf of a non-profit called Center Maryland, gives O’Malley a 47-41 lead over Ehrlich, and also gives O’Malley a respectable 49/39 approval.

• MI-Gov: Tough nerd and GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Snyder picked a running mate: state Rep. Brian Calley, a 33-year-old who helps Snyder fill his political-inexperience and social-conservative gaps. One wrinkle: Calley was already the GOP nominee for a state Senate seat, so it’s unclear how filling that vacancy will now play out. Dem nominee Virg Bernero will also need to pick a running mate ahead of this weekend’s nominating convention.

• NY-St. Sen.: Campaign ads in local newspapers in state Senate races are usually a little too down in the weeds for even SSP, but take a look at this amazingly thorough anti-Greg Ball demolition derby run by a group called “Republicans for Truth” as we approach the GOP primary in open SD-40 in New York. Remember, Ball is the wacko we could have been running against in NY-19 if Nan Hayworth hadn’t priced him out.

• Ads: We’re awash in new ads today (as I’m sure we will be every day until November), with the biggest-ticket one seeming to be a new anti-Joe Sestak ad in PA-Sen from Rove front-group American Crossroads. The even more mysterious Americans for Job Security are also wading into MO-Sen, launching an anti-Robin Carnahan radio ad. TV spots are also up in various House races: in FL-22 for Allen West, in KY-06 for Andy Barr, in TX-17 for Bill Flores, and in AZ-08 for Gabby Giffords. NWOTSOTB, in all cases.

• Blogosphere: Congratulations to friend-of-the-site Nate Silver, whose little blog called 538.com has completed its ascendancy, getting relaunched today as part of the New York Times’ online operations.

• History: New Orleans has a particularly fascinating and byzantine political history; with the LA-02 primary fast approaching, here’s an interesting long article on the rise (and potential decline) of African-American political power in the Big Easy.

• Rasmussen:

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 44%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%, Mark Kirk (R) 40%

• OR-Sen: Ron Wyden (D-inc) 56%, Jim Huffman (R) 36%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 47%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 47%, David Westlake (R) 40%

This is the last part of a series of posts analyzing competitive Senate  elections in blue states. It is the second section of two posts focusing on the greatest state in the union (otherwise known as California). The first part of the series can be found here.

Suburban SoCal

Southern California (SoCal, in short) is where the battle for California will be won or lost. Ms. Fiorina must accomplish two tasks in the region.

First, she must clean the clock in the suburban counties outside Los Angeles.

More below.

It is in places like Orange County, San Diego, and the Inland Empire that the votes to counter the Democratic bases in the Bay Area can be found. In the 2008 presidential election, there were one million more votes cast in the six SoCal counties above (excluding Los Angeles) than in the entire Bay Area.

This task is not too difficult. Unlike liberal NorCal, the suburbs in this region are more like the rest of the United States in their political leanings; in fact, they are probably more conservative than the median. Orange County and San Diego County are nationally known as conservative bastions (although they are not as red as in the past). Ms. Fioina probably needs to win above 60% of the vote in both counties. Historically, Republicans have often done this. The trouble is with Los Angeles.

Los Angeles

Ms. Fiorina’s second task is to run closely in Los Angeles. It is here that Republicans face their greatest challenge. Los Angeles – sprawled, extremely populous, and arguably more diverse than even the Bay Area – constitutes a Democratic stronghold. President Barack Obama ran off with 69.2% of the vote here; Senator John Kerry took 63.1%. Ms. Fiorina must reduce this Democratic margin to within the single-digits.

The math here is simple.  There are just not enough Republican votes in Central Valley, the Orange County-San Diego metropolis, and the Inland Empire to offset the Democratic bastions of the Bay Area and Los Angeles. Republicans must therefore break one of the two strongholds. It is impossible to do this in the Bay. So the choice must be Los Angeles.

The key are the outer, wealthier suburbs within Los Angeles county. Some are liberal Hollywood areas, typified by Congressman Henry Waxman’s 30th congressional district. Republicans probably cannot win these. Others are more conservative and even voted for Senator John McCain (see, for instance, the patches of red north of Pomona and south of Redondo Beach). Ms. Fiorina will have to expand upon this core and win places like the San Fernando Valley and Pasadena – suburbs which rarely vote Republican.

Conclusion

When the voting booths close and the precinct results start pouring in, look at Los Angeles County. Ms. Fiorina’s performance there will be most indicative of her overall strength. If Democrats are winning the county by double-digits, then she is in trouble. Conversely, if their margin is less than five percent – or if Republicans are winning the county – then Republicans are in good shape. A Democratic margin between five and ten percent signifies that a long night is ahead.

On a state-level basis, modeling a close Republican victory is somewhat difficult; Republican candidates haven’t won a close race for a long time in California. There is, however, a substitute that fits well:

These are the results of the famous Proposition 8, which passed by a 4.5% margin. On a county-by-county basis, a Fiorina victory will probably look quite similar to this. There are minor differences; the margins in Orange and San Diego Counties would probably be greater; Republicans probably wouldn’t win Los Angeles County.

Overall, however, the picture would not be too different. Heavy margins from the SoCal suburbs and Central Valley counter Democratic strength in NorCal, while a strong Republican performance in Los Angeles dilutes Democratic margins there.

There is one final complication for Republicans. California constitutes the most diverse state in the country; winning minorities is a must. The Republican Party is not very good at this, which why California is a blue state today. It must change this, if candidates like Ms. Fiorina are to win the state.

Some minorities are easier to win than others. Blacks are most loyal to the Democratic Party, but they number only 6.2% of the state’s population. While more numerous Asians and Latinos do not vote their numbers (their share in the voting electorate is slightly more than half their share of the overall population), their votes are easier to get.

Here Proposition 8 is less useful as a guide. In Los Angeles County, for instance, all of South Central voted for the proposition. Unless Republicans start winning Compton and Watts, they will have to find support from a different section of California’s majority-minorities.

Winning minorities constitutes a novel challenge to the Republican Party; until now it has drawn an ever-increasing percentage of the white vote to offset increasing numbers of minorities. This is no longer possible in places like California. If Republican candidates like Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman are to win the state, they will need to envision a new strategy.

(Note: Credit for several edited images goes to the LA Times).

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

This is the third part of a series of posts analyzing competitive Senate elections in blue states. It will focus on California. Because California is such a big and complicated state, it will have two sections – of which this is the first. The second part can be found here.

California, Section 1

In the greatest state of the union, a fierce senatorial battle is brewing. Former HP executive Carly Fiorina is mounting a tough challenge to incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer. In an anti-Democratic national environment, polls show the race close and competitive. This post will examine the obstacles Ms. Fiorina will face as she seeks to overcome California’s formidable Democratic geography.

As America’s most populous state, California contains a number of distinct regions. This post, and the one following, will examine each.

More below.

Upper California and the Sierra Nevada

When people think of California, the northern forests and year-round snow of the Sierra Nevada generally do not come into mind. These regions, geographically expansive yet thinly populated, tend to vote loyally Republican (although until the 1970s Democrats had a base of support in several northeastern counties).

Not all of this region is Republican-voting, unpopulated wilderness. Exurban Placer County, for instance, contained 173,812 voters in 2008. Other parts – especially the liberal coast – tend to vote Democratic, eating in to Republican strength.

Ms. Fiorina will probably need something like 70% of the vote in places like Placer County to win. Strong margins from this Republican stronghold constitute the first, easiest step to a Republican victory.

The Bay Area

In many ways, the Bay Area is what makes California a blue state. Without the Bay Area, for instance, President George W. Bush would – almost – have won California in 2004, losing by a mere 0.7%.

Unfortunately for Republicans, the Bay Area – one of the richest, most diverse, and most liberal places in the country – does indeed exist, and it votes strongly Democratic. A popular attack against Senator Boxer is to call her a San Francisco liberal; this generally works less well in San Francisco.

In addition, voting habits in the Bay Area tend to be “sticky.” If the rest of California moves ten points more Republican, the Bay Area will tend to move only five points right. San Francisco and Alameda counties are sometimes the last two counties standing during Republican landslides.

There is a glimmer of hope for Republicans, however. The counties surrounding San Francisco and Berkeley tend to be one degree less intense in their liberalism. Ms. Fiorina will not win them, but a well-run campaign can reduce Democratic margins somewhat.

Central Valley

Home to some of the richest farmland in America, the counties composing Central Valley once leaned Democratic but now vote Republican in all but Democratic landslides. Conservative and heavily populated – although not by California standards – Central Valley provides somewhat of a reservoir to offset the enormous Democratic margins radiating from the Bay Area.

There is, however, one important exception: Sacramento, a populous county whose Democratic leanings deny Republicans a vast store of potential votes.

In the long run, Central Valley is a ticking time bomb. Democratic-voting Latinos compose 30-50% of the population in many of these counties, and their numbers will only increase. For now Ms. Fiorina is safe – Latinos do not vote their numbers, especially in mid-terms – but future Republicans cannot take Central Valley for granted.

The Challenge of Southern California

It is in the urban sprawl of SoCal, however, where Republicans face their greatest challenge. Ms. Fiorina has two tasks here. The first is to win the counties outside Los Angeles, and win them big. The second is to keep Los Angeles itself within single digits.

The next post will expand upon SoCal and offer a conclusion on Republican prospects of winning California.

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

SurveyUSA for KABC, KPIX, KGTV, and KFSN (pdf) (8/9-11, likely voters, 7/8-11 in parentheses):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (45)

Carly Fiorina (R): 47 (47)

Other: 5 (3)

Undecided: 5 (5)

Jerry Brown (D): 43 (39)

Meg Whitman (R): 44 (46)

Other: 6 (7)

Undecided: 6 (8)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

SurveyUSA continues to put up odd numbers in California: Meg Whitman over Jerry Brown by a point, yeah, that’s on the pessimistic side compared with other pollsters but certainly feasible. But Carly Fiorina beating Barbara Boxer by 5, with trendlines going completely the opposite direction from the Dem-trending gubernatorial race? SurveyUSA is not only the only pollster to have ever given Fiorina a lead, but also the only pollster to recently show conservative, HP-destroying, money-limited Fiorina performing better against Boxer than the more moderate, more-acclaimed CEO, more-money-than-God Whitman against Brown. Well, all we can do is throw it on the pile with the rest of the polls; if nothing else, it’ll smooth out that PPP poll that was +9 Boxer a couple weeks ago, which may have been a little too optimistic.

They also include some downballot issues, where Dems seem to be at an advantage (which makes the pro-Fiorina tilt of this poll seem even weirder). Gavin Newsom narrowly leads GOP incumbent Abel Maldonado 43-42 in the Lt. Governor race, and they find Proposition 19, which would legalize and tax the use of marijuana, passing by a fairly broad 50-40 margin.

• AK-Sen: Wow, now we’ve got Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin working in harmony in at least one place: Huckabee just endorsed Joe Miller, the little-known right-wing challenger to Lisa Murkowski in the GOP Senate primary.

• AZ-Sen: J.D. Hayworth is out with a new ad in a last-ditch effort to make up some ground on John McCain, and he’s relying on time-honored tradition of pulling a few of his opponents’ words out of context. In this case, he swipes the passage “I chose lying” from McCain’s 2002 audiobook, although in the book it was talking about the South Carolina confederate flag controversy, and Hayworth just slaps it down in an ad about immigration. The ad buy is for $365K.

• CA-Sen: This isn’t a surprise in terms of which of the candidates they endorsed, but it might be interesting that the Chamber of Commerce decided there was enough of a shot in this race for them to weigh in. They’re backing Carly Fiorina in the California Senate race, based on, y’know, her long track record of success at Hewlett-Packard.

• FL-Sen: A Mason-Dixon poll released late last week gives some hope to Kendrick Meek, who other polls had shown had fallen behind billionaire weirdo Jeff Greene in the Democratic primary. Their poll (conducted for “Leadership Florida and the Florida Press Association”) gives Meek a 33-29 lead. Greene’s main problem seems to be that the press keeps on doing stories about, well, all those things that Greene has been doing for the last couple decades; yesterday the St. Petersburg Times looked at Greene’s involvement in a California condo deal that belies his claims that he was a high-level investor and not involved in any of the myriad ground-level predatory lending transactions that, when all added together, helped create the real estate asset bubble. Greene’s defense? “I don’t follow what happens after the sale…. All I care about is that I get my money.” Finally, whether Greene or Meek wins the primary, one more problem they’ll have to deal with is the movement of prominent Democratic money to indie Charlie Crist. Pollster Mark Penn hasn’t been anyone’s image of a reliable or useful Democrat lately, but he is at least a prominent Democrat; he’s now raising for Crist.

• KY-Sen: Will “I worship you, Aqua Buddha” become the newest political catchphrase that sweeps the nation? GQ has a hilarious (if somewhat disturbing) look back at Rand Paul’s hellraising days at an undergrad at Baylor (a school from which, by the way, he doesn’t have a bachelor’s degree). It’ll be interesting to see if this actually creates any blowback for Paul.

• WA-Sen: Interesting: another endorsement for the once-moderate Dino Rossi from another celebrity on the right in the Senate. Unlike Jim DeMint (whose backing he got last week), who has something of a fundraising network that comes with his endorsement, Tom Coburn (who just announced his support) just has cachet with right-wing fanboys. More evidence that Rossi, while publicly pretending to be focused only on the general, is scrambling to shore up his right flank before the Top 2 primary where he faces competition from various teabaggers, most significantly Sarah Palin-backed Clint Didier.

• FL-Gov: That Mason-Dixon poll had a Republican gubernatorial portion as well, and they do provide some confirmation for the sense that Bill McCollum is worming his way back into this thing, with not much time left on the clock. Rick Scott leads McCollum only 37-31. Worth noting: it doesn’t seem to have anything to do with people taking notice of Scott’s legacy of Medicare fraud at Columbia/HCA, but rather, McCollum consolidating the Republican Hispanic vote (where he leads 3-1), probably thanks to Scott’s demagoguery on the immigration issue and McCollum’s more even-handed stance. Meanwhile, not that Bud Chiles was gaining much momentum, but explaining this could be a big distraction: his former leadership of innocuous-sounding charity HOPE Worldwide, which it turns out is an arm of the cultish International Churches of Christ.

• IA-Gov: Social conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats ran a surprisingly close race against Terry Branstad in the GOP gubernatorial primary and then threatened an independent run when he didn’t receive the proper amount of fealty post-primary. However, he announced last Friday that he won’t attempt a third-party bid (which would probably give the advantage in the race back to Chet Culver). He’ll focus his energies on defeating members of the Iowa Supreme Court, in retaliation for its gay marriage ruling.

• MN-Gov: If there’s one campaign out there in need of a shakeup, it’s Tom Emmer’s, as polls have made clear that the GOP gubernatorial nominee’s trajectory post-nomination has been aimed almost straight down. Old campaign manager Tom Mason departed for a farm upstate, replaced by former ’08 Norm Coleman CM Cullen Sheehan.

• PA-Gov: Remember Sam Rohrer, the socially conservative state Rep. who persisted in the GOP primary against AG Tom Corbett (and lost big)? His supporters still haven’t given up hope, and, although Pennsylvania law prohibits him from a ballot line in November, are now launching an independent write-in campaign for Rohrer. (Rohrer hasn’t endorsed the idea, but isn’t dissuading them either.) The write-in campaign is a particularly difficult beast, though, meaning that it’s likely that Rohrer wouldn’t pick up more than a couple percent, and the race would have to get closer than it currently is for that to harm Corbett’s odds against Dem Dan Onorato.

• RI-Gov: Brown University is out with a poll on the Rhode Island gubernatorial race, and one thing is clear: no current Republican is going to win the race. Democratic state Treasurer Frank Caprio leads independent ex-Republican ex-Sen. Lincoln Chafee, by a bare 28-27 margin. For some reason, they seemed to poll the two Republicans jungle-style, but it really doesn’t matter as both are non-factors: former Don Carcieri communications director John Robitaille is at 7 and ex-state Rep. Victor Moffitt is at 2.

• FL-08: Jeb! backs Web! Ex-gov. Jeb Bush cut an ad in support of ex-state Sen. Daniel Webster, who, with his dithering, managed to blow his early shot at consolidating GOP establishment support in the primary. Instead, he’s one of many guys stuffed in the clown car, fighting for the right to oppose Rep. Alan Grayson.

• ID-01: The omission of Raul Labrador from the NRCC’s Young Guns, which seems to admit any Republican who has enough opposable digits to successfully operate a telephone and call donors, seemed like it was becoming too embarrassing for even the NRCC’s skilled writers to spin away. Labrador says he “changed his mind” and is now willing to join the entourage. Labrador, who has $69K, is only entering at the “On the Radar” level, though, the bottom of the pyramid.

• IL-14: State Sen. Randy Hultgren thought he struck some electoral gold when he found a contribution to Rep. Bill Foster from fellow Dem Maxine Waters for $1,000, which then demanded Foster give back. Unfortunately, there’s something to be said for basic reading skills: the contribution wasn’t to Bill Foster, but rather to former music industry exec Gary Foster, who’s now head of a charitable org called Upliftment Jamaica. Naturally, the Hultgren camp blamed the FEC for forcing them to screw up.

• LA-02: Sen. Mary Landrieu announced her backing for state Rep. Cedric Richmond in the Dem primary in the 2nd, more evidence that the Dem establishment is trying to unite behind Richmond and put the squeeze on primary rival state Rep. Juan LaFonta.

• MI-09: As part of the transition from primary to general election, one item that’s high on GOP nominee Rocky Raczkowski’s to-do list is to walk back his previous birtherism. After telling Politico in a post-primary interview that he’d “love” to see Obama’s birth certificate, he’s now out with a statement that Politico took his out of context… without, of course, explaining what context such a comment should be taken in.

• OH-18: Stop the presses! (And hide the women!) Bill Clinton adviser turned Fox News talking head Dick Morris has announced he’ll be making appearances on behalf of at least 40 Republican candidates this year. That includes a fundraiser for Rep. Zack Space’s opponent, state Sen. Bob Gibbs, later this month.

• RI-01, RI-02: That Brown gubernatorial poll also looked at the Democratic primaries in the 1st and 2nd, although the margin of error is terribly high (7.4% in RI-01). In the 1st, Providence mayor David Cicilline is in command of the Dem field, leading former state party chair William Lynch 32-11 15, with 11 for businessman Anthony Gemma and 5 for state Rep. David Segal (who just got the local SEIU‘s backing, by the way). In the 2nd, Rep. Jim Langevin looks likely to weather his primary challenge with ease; he leads state Rep. Elizabeth Dennigan 55-12.

• SBA List: Anti-abortion group the Susan B. Anthony List has come out with polls of one open Senate race and three House races featuring Dem incumbents (where the common thread seems that all the Dems are anti-abortion), courtesy of that Republican pollster with the oh-so-creative name, The Polling Company. They find Dan Coats leading Brad Ellsworth 50-35 in the Indiana Senate race. The House races are an interesting mix of the good, the bad, and the so-so. For the good, Rep. Joe Donnelly seems to start on solid ground in IN-02, where he leads state Rep. Jackie Walorski 52-35. For the bad, Rep. Steve Driehaus may just be the most DOA of any House Democrat, as this is one more poll giving him a double-digit deficit against ex-Rep. Steve Chabot (51-41). And for the so-so, Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (last seen losing in a too-good-to-be-true internal from GOP opponent Mike Kelly) is leading Kelly by a pretty plausible 46-42.

• Blue Dogs: The Blue Dogs handed out a load of endorsements to Dem candidates, looking to replenish their soon-to-be-depleted ranks (thanks to a number of retirements, as well as many of their members being in many of the nation’s most competitive races). Endorsees are Steve Raby in AL-05, Chad Causey in AR-01, Roy Herron in TN-08, Trent van Haaften in IN-08, and Stephene Moore in KS-03.

• Rasmussen:

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 37%, Mike Castle (R) 49%

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 46%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 36%

• IA-Gov: Chet Culver (D-inc) 36%, Terry Branstad (R) 52%

• KS-Gov: Tom Holland (D) 34%, Sam Brownback (R) 57%

• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 38%, Kelly Ayotte (R) 51%

• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 40%, Bill Binnie (R) 46%

• SD-Gov: Scott Heidepriem (D) 27%, Dennis Daugaard (R) 59%

• SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 42%, Kristi Noem (R) 51%

• IL-Sen: Barack Obama’s in Chicago today to help get Alexi Giannoulias across the finish line, at least on the fundraising front, where he’s faltered lately. The fundraiser he’s appearing at today is projected to raise $1 million for Giannoulias’s coffers. Meanwhile, this is a little gossipier than we usually like to get into, but you might check out Chicago Magazine’s interview with Mark Kirk‘s ex-wife, which, jaw-dropping as it is, seems to raise even more questions than it answers, especially regarding Kirk’s former aide and Svengali-figure Dodie McCracken.

• NH-Sen: Here’s an indication that Bill Binnie still has to be taken seriously in the GOP Senate primary in New Hampshire: a conservative group called Cornerstone Action (affiliated with the Family Research Council and Focus on the Family) has launched a $125K ad buy attacking Binnie on his socially moderate stances (he’s pro-choice and apparently pro-gay marriage). While Cornerstone hasn’t specifically backed Kelly Ayotte, Binnie’s camp is trying to link them together.

• CO-Gov: Democratic candidate John Hickenlooper announced his pick for a running mate today: the president of CSU-Pueblo and former Director of the state Dept. of Regulatory Agencies, Joe Garcia (no, not the FL-25 one). Meanwhile, Dan Maes — who was a Some Dude until Scott McInnis imploded — is starting to rival Sharron Angle in terms of his ability to get into the digest every single day for having said something dumb or having some terrible detail from his past revealed. Today, the Denver Post is out with a comprehensive list of his delinquent filings over the years, ranging from annual reports to the state’s SoS office for his credit reporting business for the years 2007-2010, to a lien against his house for not paying his homeowners’ association dues for seven months.

• FL-Gov: Ex-Gov. Jeb Bush is throwing a lifeline to Bill McCollum. He’ll join McCollum on the stump for appearances around the state on Monday. Meanwhile, the spotlight is starting to swing over from Columbia/HCA, Rick Scott’s old healthcare company, to his new one, Solantic. The Miami Herald looks at various lawsuits that Solantic has racked up, ranging from filing false medical information with the state to discrimination lawsuits.

• GA-Gov: Breaking with Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney (who’ve endorsed suburban Karen Handel), Mike Huckabee announced his support today for the more southern-fried Nathan Deal in the GOP gubernatorial runoff.

• MI-Gov: Looks like Rep. Peter Hoekstra, douchebag to the bitter end, may need some time to pout/mourn after his sizable loss in the GOP gubernatorial primary to Rick Snyder. He sent an e-mail to supporters yesterday thanking them but making no mention of support for Snyder. A Hoekstra endorsement, of course, would go a long way toward helping consolidate conservatives behind Snyder, whose moderation may leave them cold.

• SC-Gov: Nikki Haley has liked to emphasize her accounting background on the campaign trail, but she filed her federal income taxes more than a year late in both 2005 and 2006, and has accrued more than $4,000 in late-payment penalties since then.

• CT-05: Justin Bernier has filed a complaint with the state’s SoS against GOP primary rival state Sen. Sam Caligiuri. Caligiuri sent out a mailer calling himself the “Republican nominee,” not the “Republican-endorsed candidate” (which he is, thanks to the convention). Of course, the mailer then asks for the recipients’ votes in the Republican primary, which according to elementary logic would mean that he is not yet the Republican nominee, but, then again, Republican usually =/= logic.

• MI-02: Jay Riemersma, who finished 2nd in the open seat GOP primary in MI-02 by a margin of about 700 votes to ex-state Rep. Wayne Huizenga, has said he won’t seek a recount. Not that a protracted battle would have been any aid to Democrats, who aren’t expected to be a factor in November in this dark-red district. (A recount, of course, may still loom in MI-01, where there’s either a 1-point or 14-point gap, depending on your source, and both GOPers have claimed victory.)

• Washington: PPP looked at a whole lot of miscellany in their Washington Senate poll, too. They look ahead to both the 2012 Senate and gubernatorial races, finding Maria Cantwell in fine shape for now: she’s at 46/38 approval, and she leads Rep. Dave Reichert (not likely to run) 47-41 and Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (who’s largely unknown statewide) 49-37. The gubernatorial numbers for now favor the likely GOP nominee, AG Rob McKenna, though. He leads Democratic state Sen. majority leader Lisa Brown 47-29 (although her problem is that she’s completely unknown, with 81% with no opinion, though she as Generic D is probably also weighed down by Chris Gregoire’s approvals, currently at 39/52… I’d have been more interested in seeing how Rep. Jay Inslee matches up, although he may be just as unknown statewide). Finally, they find a 41-41 tie in support for I-1098, which is on the November ballot and would create an income tax for high earners. SurveyUSA, of all people, has given a big lead to “yes” on this initiative, so it’ll be interesting to see how that shakes out.

• State legislatures: You may recall Louis Jacobson’s piece at Governing Magazine from last month where he handicapped the most competitive state legislative chambers this year. He’s out with an expanded version, with every state legislature included and with more detailed writeups. Well worth a read (and maybe even a bookmark). Another similar piece worth checking out today is from Taniel, writing at Open Left, with a comprehensive rundown of who is likely to control the redistricting process in all the states that don’t have independent commissions (or only one CD).

• Rasmussen:

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 45%, Carly Fiorina (R) 40%

• KS-Sen: Lisa Johnston (D) 28%, Jerry Moran (R) 61%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 42%, John Kasich (R) 45%

Public Policy Institute of California (pdf) (7/6-20, likely voters, 5/9-16 (pdf) in parentheses):

Jerry Brown (D): 37 (42)

Meg Whitman (R): 34 (37)

Other: 5 (NA)

Undecided: 23 (21)

Barbara Boxer (D): 39 (48)

Carly Fiorina (R): 34 (39)

Other: 5 (NA)

Undecided: 22 (13)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

PPIC seems like one of the more prolific and reliable California pollsters, and this is their first release since the May primaries. Not much has changed: Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer still have single-digits leads over their Republican opposition, with a few points shaved off the margin since May in each case. The trendlines plus the margins shouldn’t fill one with great confidence, but there’s also a sense here that, with huge Republican ad spending and the Dems only starting to engage these races, this is about as good as it’s going to get for the GOP, given the state’s bluish hue.

The poll also asked a number of topic about the environment; it finds that Californians are opposed to offshore drilling by a 59-36 margin (a 16-point shift since last year). While they didn’t poll on Proposition 23, they did poll on AB 32, the greenhouse gases legislation that Prop 23 would seek to put on hold. AB 32 has 67% approval, and 53% say act now on limiting emissions. They also ask about Arnold Schwarzenegger’s approval, and let’s just say they look about as good as the box office receipts for The 6th Day: they’re at 25/62. PPP also just released Schwarzenegger numbers (19/71), and in an interesting hypothetical, found that in a matchup of unpopular Governors, Gray Davis (who got recalled for make way for Ah-nuld) would beat Schwarzenegger 44-38.