Upstate New York has trended Democratic quickly over the past decade. Therefore I’m spreading Democratic support thin over Upstate to make only Democratic districts.

However Long Island has trended Republican at the presidential level since 2000. I’m keeping Peter King’s district Republican in order to keep the other Long Island districts safe Democratic. If Long Island becomes more Democratic then Peter King’s district becomes a tossup when he retires. If Long Island becomes more Republican then at least the Democrats on the Island remain safe.

I did not split a single municipality north of Westchester and Rockland Counties except for Buffalo.

I’m sorry the 11th and the 16th are almost the same color.



Please don’t read anything into the colors assigned to the 13th and 14th districts. Those are the colors that automatically get assigned to those numbers, nothing more.

1st District Tim Bishop (D)

Hamptons, Brookhaven

New 54%O 46%M Old 52%O 48%M

82% White, 5% Black, 9% Hispanic, 3% Asian

I removed Smithtown and added some Hispanic parts of Islip to make it more Democratic.

2nd District Steve Israel (D)

Huntington, Babylon, Islip

New 56%O 44%M Old 56%O 43%M

73% White, 9% Black, 13% Hispanic, 3% Asian

These days the south shore of Suffolk County is less Republican then the north shore, so I removed the north shore and added more south shore. I hope I kept Steve Israel’s home in the district. The most Democratic parts of Huntington are still in the 2nd.

3rd District Peter King (R)

Oyster Bay, Glen Cove, Smithtown

New 48%O 52%M Old 47%O 52%M

88% White, 2% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian

I tried to find the right balance between making the 3rd possible for a Democrat to win when Peter King retires, while keeping the 1st and 2nd as safe as possible for the Democrats.

4th District Carolyn McCarthy (D)

most of Hempstead, some North Hempstead

New 58%O 42%M Old 58%O 41%M

63% White, 17% Black, 13% Hispanic, 5% Asian

This is the only Long Island district with a sizable minority population, almost enough for a black or Hispanic candidate to have a chance. The northern protrusion is so that the 5th district reaches Gary Ackerman’s home in Mineola. The eastern protrusions are to take either minority or extremely Republican parts out of the 3rd.

5th District Gary Ackerman (D)

Flushing, Floral Park, North Hempstead

New 62%O 37%M Old 63%O 36%M

51% White, 5% Black, 14% Hispanic, 27% Asian

The loss of a district Upstate can already be felt in the 5th district. It has more Queens and less Nassau than before. Pretty soon it will be possible to make an Asian majority district in Queens.

6th District Gregory Meeks (D)

Jamaica, Ozone Park, Far Rockaway

New 86%O 14%M Old 89%O 11%M

17% White, 50.2% Black, 17% Hispanic, 7% Asian

It’s still the black district in southern Queens. It expanded west to take some Republican territory from Anthony Weiner.

7th District Anthony Weiner (D) (Old 9th)

Brighton Beach, Sheepshead Bay, Ridgewood, Forest Hills

New 61%O 38%M Old 55%O 44%M

55% White, 7% Black, 21% Hispanic, 14% Asian

It still has the same 2 far-apart population centers. It loses its Hasidic Jews and gains more of Queens.

8th District Edolphus Towns (D) (Old 10th)

Williamsburg, Bedford Stuyvesant, East New York, Canarsie

New 94%O 6%M Old 91%O 9%M

8% White, 66% Black, 20% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Probably the blackest district in America. Yet it borders another black-majority district and is only block away from another black-majority district.

9th District Yvette Clarke (D) (Old 11th)

Park Slope, Crown Heights, Flatbush

New 91%O 9%M Old 91%O 9%M

27% White, 51% Black, 14% Hispanic, 5% Asian

I removed the panhandle from the Towns district so it would be more compact. As a result the Clarke district barely has a black majority. But it’s good enough.

10th District Michael McMahon (D) (Old 13th)

Staten Island, southwest Brooklyn

New 51%O 48%M Old 49%O 51%M

68% White, 9% Black, 12% Hispanic, 9% Asian

The border between the 10th and 12th districts is the only ugly political gerrymander in this map. (The 11th is an ugly racial gerrymander.) The Brooklyn part of this district gave Obama 62% of the vote. Also keep in mind that a Staten Island Democrat has at least a 5 point advantage here over a presidential Democrat, so Michael McMahon should be safe.

11th District Nydia Velazquez (D) (Old 12th)

Sunset Park, Lower East Side, Chinatown, Bushwick, South Corona

New 85%O 14%M Old 86%O 13%M

14% White, 7% Black, 54% Hispanic, 22% Asian

The existing 12th is a Hispanic district, and it also seems to be an Asian district, so I added more of both groups, and extended it into north Queens.

12th District Jerrold Nadler (D) (Old 8th)

Upper West Side, west Midtown, Lower West Side, extremely Republican parts of Brooklyn

New 69%O 30%M Old 74%O 26%M

76% White, 3% Black, 9% Hispanic, 9% Asian

The extremely republican Hasidic parts of Brooklyn had to get buried somewhere. I could have buried them in the black districts but I decided it would be better for race relations to give them to a white Jewish Democrat. The Manhattan part of the district is almost completely unchanged.

13th District Carolyn Maloney (D) (Old 14th)

Upper East Side, east Midtown, Long Island City, Greenpoint

New 79%O 20%M Old 78%O 21%M

69% White, 4% Black, 13% Hispanic, 10% Asian

I added Greenpoint (northern point of Brooklyn) because Greenpoint is turning into another rich gentrified neighborhood. Besides that, it’s mostly unchanged.

14th District Charles Rangel (D) (Old 15th)

Harlem, some Upper West Side

New 93%O 6%M Old 93%O 6%M

16% White, 31% Black, 48% Hispanic, 3% Asian

Everything north of 96th street on the east side and 90th(?) street on the west side. And also Rikers Island. I decided it’s more important to make the district geographically compact (Manhattan only) than to add more black population by trading precincts with a Bronx district.

15th District Jose Serrano (D) (Old 16th)

South Bronx

New 95.0%O 4.8%M Old 94.8%O 5.0%M

2% White, 31% Black, 63% Hispanic, 2% Asian

This has the distinction of being the most Democratic district in America. I did my best to keep it that way.

16th District Joseph Crowley (D) (Old 7th)

East Bronx, Astoria

New 84%O 16%M Old 79%O 20%M

24% White, 30% Black, 35% Hispanic, 7% Asian

Renumbered 16th because it’s now a Bronx district not a Queens district (thus forcing me to renumber so many other districts). I hope it still includes Crowley’s home in Woodside, it’s hard to tell.

17th District Eliot Engel (D)

Riverdale, Mount Vernon, Ramapo

New 63%O 37%M Old 72%O 28%M

58% White, 17% Black, 18% Hispanic, 5% Asian

It’s not as Democratic as before because it loses black parts of the Bronx and gains Republican parts of Orange County.  But it’s still safe Democratic.

18th District Nita Lowey (D)

New Rochelle, White Plains, Mount Pleasant

New 61%O 39%M Old 62%O 38%M

71% White, 8% Black, 14% Hispanic, 5% Asian

The Westchester district didn’t change much.

19th District John Hall (D)

Peekskill, Middletown, Newburgh, Ploughkeepsie

New 53%O 46%M Old 51%O 48%M

78% White, 8% Black, 10% Hispanic, 2% Asian

It gets pushed further upstate. Fortunately gaining northern Orange County and Ploughkeepsie makes it more Democratic.

20th District Maurice Hinchey (D) Old 22nd

New Paltz, Woodstock, Hudson, Albany suburbs

New 55%O 44%M Old 59%O 39%M

89% White, 4% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This district now includes several Hudson Valley counties instead of a finger into Ithaca.

21st District Paul Tonko (D)

Albany, Troy, Schenectady

New 56%O 42%M Old 58%O 40%M

87% White, 7% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian

It still has Tonko’s home in Montgomery County and it picks up Republican territory in Fulton, Saratoga, and Rensselaer Counties.

22nd District Scott Murphy (D) Old 20th vs Bill Owens (D) Old 23rd

Watertown, Plattsburgh, Saratoga Springs

New 53%O 46%M Old 20th 51%O 48%M, Old 23rd 52%O 47%M

93% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

All of Democratic northern rural New York gets packed into 1 district. It’s only 53% now but expect it to continue trending Democratic into the future. I decapitated Herkimer for aesthetic reasons. Unfortunately Murphy and Owens can’t both be Congressman in 2013 but I’m sure they saw this coming when they ran.

23rd District Michael Arcuri (D) Old 24th

Utica, Ithaca, Binghamton

New 54%O 45%M Old 51%O 48%M

90% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Made safer by adding Ithaca and Binghamton and removing most of Oneida County.

24th District Dan Maffei (D) Old 25th

Syracuse, Rome, Oswego

New 55%O 45%M Old 56%O 43%M

88% White, 6% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

The Syracuse district buries extremely-Republican northern Oneida County. It shifted east because Western New York lost a lot of population and its districts are expanding.

25th District Eric Massa (D) Old 29th

Webster, Brighton, Corning

New 50%O 49%M Old 48%O 51%M

92% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This November Eric Massa will hopefully get reelected by a significant margin. This plan then makes his district more Democratic, so he will be able to keep getting reelected. The district includes most of Massa’s original district, and the rest is currently represented by Dan Maffei and Michael Arcuri. If this district becomes open then it’s a tossup, so I’m counting on Massa to keep running for reelection.

26th District Louise Slaughter (D) Old 28th

Rochester, Greece, Batavia

New 55%O 44%M Old 69%O 30%M

78% White, 14% Black, 5% Hispanic, 1% Asian

No more earmuffs! This district includes the entire city of Rochester, its suburbs to the west, and 4 rural conservative counties. Louise Slaughter’s home isn’t in the district, and drawing her in would weaken the Massa district too much. But it’s still Slaughter’s district.

27th District Chris Lee (R) Old 26th

Buffalo, Amherst, Niagara Falls

New 55%O 43%M Old 46%O 52%M

87% White, 8% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian

There’s a fine line between increasing a city’s influence by putting it in more Congressional districts, and decreasing a city’s influence by spreading it too thin over too many districts. I hope I did the former, not the latter. Chris Lee, an unremarkable Republican, will now have to face reelection in a 55% Obama district.

28th District Brian Higgins (D) Old 27th

Buffalo, Lackawanna, Olean

New 54%O 45%M Old 54%O 44%M

84% White, 10% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian

Brian Higgins gains some more black parts of Buffalo, and also gains some rural conservative counties. This makes the district as Democratic as it was before, just bigger.

Hello all. I’m very excited to participate in my first contest here at SSP. Not only that, I’m extremely excited to deal with my home state, New York. For you, I’ve redistricted New York, 27-1. I’ve seen some entries that involve a 28-0 gerrymander, which would be hypothetically nice, but probably unfeasible. To strengthen all incumbents, I’ve given every Democrat a 55% or higher Obama district, which translates to at least a D+2 or D+3 PVI for each one.  Right now, several Democratic incumbents occupy Republican PVI districts (Arcuri, Massa, Murphy, Hall, and Owens). That will change under my plan. However, unlike previous entries, I have to ax one of the districts upstate to make sure that I have a 27-1 gerrymander, and, unfortunately for the new guys, Murphy’s old district is eliminated, forcing him to enter a primary with Bill Owens. I don’t really care who wins that one, though I recognize that Murphy is a very good fundraiser and probably would win. All VRA districts are kept in tact, with Velazquez’s becoming Hispanic majority (instead of plurality).  In the future, I foresee that there will be another Hispanic majority district, mostly based in Crowley’s present district. I also want to see a majority Asian district eventually, though I realize that many Asian communities in New York have different interests.

I know that there is a strategic advantage to sending in your map later so that nobody gets any ideas, but I think it’s in all of our best interests to build the best map as possible. If you haven’t made your map yet, feel free to use some of my ideas. If you have made your map, then post it!

Here’s a summary of what I did:

-Created 27 likely/safe Democratic seats

-Created one über safe Republican district to protect Massa, Arcuri, Owens/Murphy, and, to some extent, Hinchey and Maffei.

-Kept districts relatively compact, with only four New York City/suburban districts (there are only two right now, so not much of a difference)

-Kept all cities in one district if possible

-Obeyed the VRA

-Kept populations within the allocated margins

-Made every Democratic seat relatively easy to represent (no Binghamton to Buffalo drives for Massa)

There are 3,086 people that are unaccounted for. I just couldn’t find the missing precincts; I assume they’re in New York City, though, as the unaccounted voters voted for Obama by something like 90-10. I don’t think it makes much of a difference in the larger picture, though. Also, I’m trying to figure out a way to send it to jeffmd through e-mail, as my first two tries didn’t work.

One last thing: I connect a few New York City districts with bridges-and, in one case, a ferry. I will note that in my write-up. Please enjoy!

Clean Map:

With Counties:

Long Island:

District 1 – BLUE

Incumbent: Tim Bishop (D)

Area: Part of Suffolk County (Islip, Brookhaven, Southampton)

Population: 669,859

Obama: 55%

McCain: 45%

Old District: Obama 51% McCain 48%; Kerry 49% Bush 49%

White: White: 77% Black: 6% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 12% Other: 2%

Notes: Bishop keeps his base in the Hamptons, while receives favorable territory in Brookhaven and Islip. These added points to his previous district-of which Obama only received about 51% of the vote-should keep Bishop safe.

District 2 – DARK GREEN

Incumbent: Steve Israel (D)

Area: Part of Suffolk County (Huntington)/Part of Nassau County

Population: 700,704

Obama: 55%

McCain: 45%

Old District: 56% McCain 43%; Kerry 53% Bush 45%

White: 75% Black: 9% Native: 0% Asian: 3% Hispanic: 10% Other: 2%

Notes: The newly minted Long Island district takes in much of Israel’s and Bishop’s old district in Eastern Suffolk. The district splits Huntington, which is Israel’s base, so Israel can elect to run in either the 2nd or the 3rd district.

District 3 – PURPLE

Incumbent:

Area: Part of Nassau County (Glen Cove)/Part of Suffolk County (Huntington)/Part of Bronx County (The Bronx)

Population: 700,178

Obama: 55%

McCain: 45%

Old District: Obama 47% McCain 52%; Kerry 47% Bush 52%

White: 73% Black: 13% Native: 0% Asian: 3% Hispanic: 9% Other: 1%

Notes: This is where King is screwed. His base in Southern Nassau is split into three districts, the 3rd, the 4th, and the 5th. I had to add part of the Bronx to strengthen the district (and for population purposes). King would have to sweep the Nassau portions to win, and I don’t think he could. Granted, this district is less Democratic than the 4th and the 5th, but I think the Democratic lean ultimately propels a Democrat to victory. Israel could also run in the neighboring 2nd, as Huntington is split between the two districts.

As for the Bronx connection, the representative can take the Throgs Neck Bridge from Queens. Though the bridge doesn’t connect the Long Island parts to the Bronx part, it will make representing both sections very manageable.

District 4 – RED

Incumbent: Carolyn McCarthy (D)/Peter King (R)

Area: Part of Nassau County (Long Beach)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,877

Obama: 57%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 58% McCain 41%; Kerry 55% Bush 41%

White: White: 64% Black: 15% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 10% Other: 3%

Notes: This district takes in most of King’s base, (and his home), but tethers it to Queens to make this district pretty safe for McCarthy. Also of note, I had to add some black-majority precincts to make McCarthy safe, so Meeks has to go Brooklyn to make sure his district is VRA. Also, here is a short arm in the middle of Nassau County to take McCarthy’s home in Mineola.

District 5 – YELLOW

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman (D)

Area: Part of Nassau County/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,542

Obama: 58%

McCain: 42%

Old District: Obama 63% McCain 36%; Obama 63% McCain 36%

White: 61% Black: 7% Native: 0% Asian: 18% Hispanic: 12% Other: 2%

Notes: Takes in Nassau, Queens along with parts of King’s base. He should continue to do fine here.

District 6 – DARK GREENISH BLUE

Incumbent: Gregory Meeks (D)

Area: Queens County (Queens)/Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 699,692

Obama: 87%

McCain: 13%

Old District: Obama 89% McCain 11%; Kerry 84% Bush 15%

White: 17% Black: 50% Native: 0% Asian: 9% Hispanic: 17% Other: 7%

Notes: Remains a VRA-protected district in Queens, but to help McCarthy, it is water-continuous to take in black-majority precincts in Brooklyn. Takes in some icky old Weiner precincts. Meeks can travel the Shore Parkway to go Brooklyn to his other constituents. Also has the most “Other” raced-people in the state (45,528). I have no idea what that means.

District 7 – GRAY

Incumbent: Joseph Crowley (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,514

Obama: 80%

McCain: 20%

Old District: Obama 79% McCain 20%: Kerry 74% Bush 24%

White: 29% Black: 19% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 40% Other: 4%

Notes: I didn’t change much, but now the district is even more Hispanic. Crowley would win here, and I doubt he would get a primary. However, a Hispanic Bronx Democrat should win here after he retires. He can travel on Route 678.

District 8 – DARK PURPLE

Incumbent: Jerrold Nadler (D)

Area: Part of New York County (Manhattan)/Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 700,149

Obama: 76%

McCain: 23%

Old District: Obama 74% McCain 25%: Kerry 72% Bush 27%

White: 59% Black: 7% Native: 0% Asian: 17% Hispanic: 14% Other: 3%

Notes: Nadler loses downtown, but retains his base on the Upper West Side. He also takes in heavily Republican areas of Brooklyn, but that area is superfluous as his Manhattan parts are ridiculously Democratic. I also gave him Chinatown.

District 9 – LIGHT TURQUOISE

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 699,891

Obama: 61%

McCain: 38%

Old District: Obama 55% McCain 44%; Kerry 56% Bush 44%

White: 50% Black: 6% Native: 0% Asian: 16% Hispanic: 22% Other: 5%

Notes: I had to shore up this district, even though Weiner would be fine otherwise. It’s just that Weiner will probably run for another office some day (especially mayor), so I wanted to make sure that a moderate (probably Jewish) Republican couldn’t win here. It’s pretty gerrymandered to be a slightly majority white district. Anyway, his base is here and Weiner should win by a large margin.

District 10 – DARK PINK

Incumbent: Edolphus Towns (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 699,919

Obama: 85%

McCain: 15%

Old District: Obama 91% McCain 9%; Kerry 86% Bush 13%

White: 22% Black: 52% Native: 0% Asian: 5% Hispanic: 18% Other: 23%

Notes: Pretty much the same Brooklyn-based VRA-protected district, but it takes in icky some icky Brooklyn precincts to help Weiner.

District 11 – GREEN

Incumbent: Yvette Clarke (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 700,196

Obama: 84%

McCain: 16%

Old District: Obama 90% McCain 9%; Kerry 86% Bush 13%

White: 25% Black: 54% Native: 0% Asian: 7% Hispanic: 11% Other: 4%

Notes: Same deal as District 10.

District 12 – MEDIUM BLUE

Incumbent: Nydia Velazquez (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,735

Obama: 86%

McCain: 13%

Old District: Obama 86% McCain 13%; Kerry 80% Bush 19%

White: 23% Black: 11% Native: 0% Asian: 11% Hispanic: 51% Other: 3%

Notes: A VRA-protected Hispanic district, Velazquez sheds Manhattan and takes in the Hispanic parts of Brooklyn and Queens. The district gets a somewhat big makeover to make it Hispanic-majority, but I’m sure there will be no complaints for anyone.

District 13 – TEAL

Incumbent: Michael McMahon (D)

Area: All of Richmond County (Staten Island)/Part of New York County (Manhattan)

Population: 700,676

Obama: 62%

McCain: 37%

Old District: Obama 49% McCain 51%; Kerry 45% Bush 55%

White: White: 71% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 11% Other: 2%

Notes: My Staten Island-based district is now tethered to downtown Manhattan to make the district a safe Democratic district.

District 14 DARK GREEN

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney (D)

Area: Part of New York County (Manhattan)/Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 699,854

Obama: 80%

McCain: 19%

Old District: Obama 78% McCain 21%; Kerry 74% Bush 25%

White: 64% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 18% Other: 3%

Notes: My hometown district, Maloney gains parts of Brooklyn to enable Velazquez to have a Hispanic-majority district. Goes all the way up to the limits of the Upper East Side on 96th Street.

District 15 – ORANGE

Incumbent: Charlie Rangel (D)

Area: Part of New York County (Manhattan)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,198

Obama: 91%

McCain: 8%

Old District: Obama 93% McCain 6%; Kerry 90% Bush 9%

White: 17% Black: 27% Native: 0% Asian: 6% Hispanic: 47% Other: 3%

Notes: Rangel’s district is plurality Hispanic (and almost majority Hispanic). I would bet he wouldn’t like this district, as he could be primaried by an ambitious Hispanic legislator who would target him on ethics issues. Otherwise, it loses all parts of the Upper West Side, which never really made sense for him.

District 16 – LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent: Jose Serrano (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)

Population: 700,500

Obama: 95%

McCain: 5%

Old District: Obama 95% McCain 5%; Kerry 89% Bush 10%

White: 3% Black: 33% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 60% Other: 2%

Notes: The VRA-protected South Bronx district makes no substantive changes. This district would undoubtedly have the fewest white people in the country.

Suburbs:

District 17 – DARK BLUE

Incumbent:  Eliot Engel (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)/Part of Westchester County (Yonkers)/Part of Rockland County/Part of Orange County

Population: 700,056

Obama: 60%

McCain: 40%

Old District: Obama 72% McCain 28%; Kerry 67% Bush 33%

White: 61% Black: 17% Native: 0% Asian: 4% Hispanic: 16% Other: 3%

Notes: A kind of similar district to Engel’s current, the district takes in Mount Vernon, parts of Rockland, parts of Orange, and all of Yonkers. His home in the Bronx remains for a solid (but less diverse) Democratic district.

District 18 – LIGHT YELLOW

Incumbent: Nita Lowey (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)/Part of Westchester County (Rye, New Rochelle, Part of Peekskill)/Part of Putnam County/Part of Orange County/Part of Sullivan County/Part of Delaware County

Population: 699,983

Obama: 58%

McCain: 41%

Old District: Obama 62% McCain 38%; Kerry 58% Bush 42%

White: 76% Black: 7% Native: 0% Asian: 4% Hispanic: 11% Other: 2%

Notes: This district is pretty ugly, but it’s necessary to shore up Hall and Hinchey. It has the preexisting Westchester flavor, but it moves upstate to take in nasty Republican-leaning areas. It’s so ugly that Orange County is represented by four congresscritters. Anyway, Lowey should do well here, as her home base in Rye stays.

District 19 – WESTERN NEW YORK GREEN

Incumbent: Eric Massa (D)

Area: Part of Chemung County (Elmira)/All of Steuben County/All of Allegany County/All of Cattaraugus County/All of Chautauqua County/Part of Erie County (Buffalo)

Population: 700,415

Obama: 55%

McCain: 44%

Old District: Obama 48% McCain 50%; Kerry 42% Bush 56% (former 29th)

White: 84% Black: 11% Native: 1% Asian: 1% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: This is by far my favorite district that I drew. Massa takes in three of the heavily Republican Southern Tier counties (Cattaraugus, Allegany, and Steuben), while taking in moderate Chautauqua. It is also tethered to Buffalo, though, which shifts the district up in the Obama column tremendously. On the eastern side, the Democratic-leaning Elmira is taken in. This district should be safe for Massa.

District 20 – BEIGE

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey (D)

Area: Part of Otsego County/Part of Montgomery County/Part of Schenectady County (Schenectady)/Part of Schoharie County/Part of Delaware County/All of Greene County/All of Ulster County/Part of Sullivan County/Part of Rockland County/Part of Dutchess County (Poughkeepsie)/Part of Shanango County

Population: 699,767

Obama: 56%

McCain: 42%

Old District: Obama 59% McCain 39%; Kerry 54% Bush 45% (Current 22nd)

White: 81% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 7% Other: 2%

Notes: Shoring up Hinchey while losing Ithaca and Binghamton was a struggle, yet I think I did well. The district takes in the strongly-Dem precincts in Rockland County, going up through Sullivan, taking up some of the rest of the Capital Region, including Democratic Schenectady City. His base in Ulster is still there, though, and should propel Hinchey or whatever succeeding Democrat to win.

District 21 – DARK RED

Incumbent: John Hall (D)

Area: Part of Westchester County (White Plains, Part of Peekskill)/Part of Putnam County/Part of Orange County (Newburgh)/Part of Dutchess County/All of Columbia County

Population: 700,291

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 51% McCain 48%; Kerry 45% Bush 54% (Current 19th)

White: 78% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 10% Other: 2%

Notes: Hall’s district gets quite the makeover, but now is solidly his. He moves upstate a little, but Dover Plains is still here. He takes in heavily Democratic White Plains in Westchester.

District 22 – BROWN

Incumbent: Paul Tonko (D)

Area: Part of Fulton County/Part of Schenectady County All of Albany County (Albany)Part of Rensselaer County/Part of Saratoga County/Part of Schoharie County

Population: 700,675

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 58% McCain 40%; Kerry 55% Bush 43% (Current 21st)

White: 90% Black: 5% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: The Albany-based district is not as strongly Democratic as it once was, but it remains safe territory for Tonko. Schenectady is lost, as is Troy.

District 23 – UPSTATE LIGHT BLUE

Incumbent: Bill Owens (D)/Scott Murphy (D)

Area: Part of Saratoga County (Saratoga Springs)/All of Washington County/All of Essex County/All of Warren County/All of Clinton County/All of Franklin County/All of St. Lawrence County/All of Jefferson County/Part of Lewis County/Part of Oswego County/Part of Oneida County/Part of Renssalaer County (Troy)

Population: 700,814

Obama: 55%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 52% McCain 47%; Kerry 47% Bush 51%

White: 92% Black: 3% Native: 0% Asian: 1% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: I’m tired of Blue Dogs, so I really don’t care what happens to Murphy in this district. I had to axe on upstate district, so I chose Murphy’s and drew him into this one. Here, which now has a D PVI, takes in a lot of old McHugh-territory, while shedding Lewis and Hamilton counties. Also, Saratoga Springs and Troy are added, helping boost the district by a few percentage points. The district should be fine for whoever makes it out of the primary.

District 24 – SYRACUSE PURPLE

Incumbent: Dan Maffei (D)

Area: Part of Monroe County/All of Wayne County/Part of Ontario County/Part of Cayuga County/Part of Onondaga County (Syracuse)/Part of Oswego County/Part of Oneida County

Population: 700,260

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 56% McCain 43%; Kerry 50% Bush 48% (Current 25th)

White: 87% Black: 6% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 2% Other: 2%

Notes: Maffei’s district remains the same in principle with its Syracuse base.

District 25 – ROCHESTER PINK

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter (D)

Area: Part of Monroe County (Rochester)/Part of Livingston County (Geneseo)/Part of Ontario County/Part of Yates County

Population: 700,187

Obama: 59%

McCain: 40%

Old District: Obama 68% McCain 30%; Kerry 63% Bush 36% (Current 28th)

White: 78% Black: 13% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 5% Other: 2%

Notes: A Monroe-centric district, Slaughter also absorbs Geneseo in Livingston, most of Ontario County, and the Obama-won precincts in Yates. Her district sheds a lot of Democratic votes (all in Buffalo), but she-or any other Rochester Democrat-would do well here. A bonus: no more earmuffs district.

District 26 – UPSTATE GRAY

Incumbent: Chris Lee (R)

Area: Part of Niagara County/Part of Erie County/All of Orleans County/All of Wyoming County/All of Genesee County/Part of Livingston County/Part of Ontario County/Part of Yates County/Part of Schuyler County/Part of Chemung County/All of Tioga County/Part of Broome County/Part of Chenango County/Part of Otsego County/Part of Oneida County/All of Herkimer County/All of Hamilton County/Part of Fulton County/Part of Montgomery County

Population: 700,225

Obama: 42%

McCain: 57%

Old District: Obama 46% McCain 52%; Kerry 43% Bush 55%

White: 95% Black: 2% Native: 0% Asian: 0% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: Clearly drawn to take every upstate Republican precinct, this district is beyond safe for Lee. I believe that Obama lost every single precinct in this county, except for two in lower Broome! The district is reminiscent of jeffmd’s earlier redistricting, but I do think that this is the way to shore up Democrats all across the state. Dems could hypothetically run a Blue Dog here, but that’s probably a waste of money, as the overall partisan bent strongly favors Republicans and the district is in the Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Capital Region media markets.

District 27 – BUFFALO LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent: Brian Higgins (D)

Area: Part of Erie County (Buffalo, Lackawanna)/Part of Niagara County (North Tonawanda, Lockport, Niagara Falls)

Population: 700,130

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 54% McCain 44%; Kerry 53% Bush 45%

White: 85% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 4% Other: 1%

Notes: This Buffalo-based district does not change much partisan-wise, but it shifts up to take Niagara Falls.

District 28 – MID-STATE PINK

Incumbent: Michael Arcuri (D)

Area: Part of Oneida County (Rome, Utica)/All of Madison County (Oneida)/Part of Onondaga County/Part of Cayuga County (Auburn)/All of Seneca County/All of Tompkins County (Ithaca)/All of Cortland County/Part of Broome County (Binghamton)/Part of Schuyler County/Part of Lewis County

Population: 699,838

Obama: 55%

McCain: 44%

Old District: Obama 50% McCain 48%; Kerry 47% Bush 53% (Current 24th)

White: 90% Black: 4% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: Arcuri sheds a lot of the Republican precincts in Oneida, while retains his base in Utica. Further, he loses Herkimer and Chenango, while taking in Ithaca and Binghamton. The distict also takes in Auburn and the southern suburbs of Syracuse. The PVI is now in the D territory, and Arcuri should be fine from now on-though, he might consider leaving the Blue Dogs as votes in Tompkins might want a primary.

The idea behind this plan is to create 28 districts that Democrats can expect to win, while pushing back against conservative charges of gerrymandering by creating districts that are relatively compact.  In my mind, a district was likely to elect a Democrat if it gave Barack Obama 54% of the vote or more – i.e. at least one point more than the national average.  There is a risk that in a heavily Republican year a number of Democrats could get splattered, but once things shifted back they should be able to pick most of these seats back up.  

In addition, I wanted to create districts that split as few counties as possible.  Obviously, you can’t avoid county-splitting without violating one-person-one-vote, but I’ve managed to keep this to a minimum.  In the NYC area, all bets are off, though districts are more compact than they’ve probably been since the 1980s.

Because many of these districts are only marginally Democratic, I also tried to keep as much of an incumbent’s “home turf” as possible.  You’ll recognize most of these districts, but the changes are substantial.  

In sum, I split up Lee’s district between Massa, Slaughter, Arcuri and Higgins.  Peter King loses most of his present district, and gains Southwestern Nassau County.  In a 55% Obama district with a substantial African American population, I think he’ll find it quite difficult to survive.  Suffolk is split up three ways.  Other than that, I think you’ll recognize the map pretty easily.

As a side note, this non-New Yorker (who avoids the City as much as possible) was pretty shocked to learn how much of South Brooklyn votes like Texas (I do know that the demographics are NOTHING like Texas, but I didn’t realize just how heavily Republican they voted).  The 91% McCain precincts made the map-drawing there much more difficult than I expected.

(BTW, no idea why the images screwed up like they did.  If anyone has a clue let me know and I’ll re-try).

District 1:  Tim Bishop

Current District:  Obama 52%, McCain 48%

Proposed District: Obama 54%, McCain 46%

Population: 700,592

Demographics: 78% white, 7% bl, 2% asn, 12% hisp., 2% other.

The idea here is to split the fairly Democratic Hamptons, which enables Bishop to pick up some more heavily Democratic voters in Islip and Babylon.  Bishop also gets some Democratic precincts around Plainview.

District 2:  Steve Israel

Current District:  Obama 56%, McCain 43%

Proposed District:  Obama 54%, McCain 46%

Population:  701,787

Demographics:  78% white, 7% bl, 3% asn, 10% hisp., 1% other.

This is most of northern Suffolk County.  Israel picks up some Republican towns on the North Shore, but gains part of the Hamptons to offset a bit.

District 3:  RIP, Peter King

Current District:  Obama 47%, McCain 52%

Proposed District:  Obama 55%, McCain 44%

Population:  701,964

Demographics:  72% white, 13% bl, 3% asn, 10% hisp., 2% other.

King loses almost all of his district, which is now roughly the bottom third of Nassau County, and gains the most heavily Democratic portions of McCarthy’s old district.  Overall, this is a huge drop in Republican performance, and a big gain in Democratic performance.  Moreover, about 2/3 of his constituents are new to him, and a lot of them aren’t particularly friendly.  He can’t move to the 4th or 5th because of what we’re doing there.  To the extent Republicans complain, three horizontal districts is exactly how Nassau County was configured in the 1960s, when it was advantageous to evenly distribute the Republican vote.

District 4:  Carolyn McCarthy.

Current District:  Obama 58%, McCain 41%

Proposed District:  Obama 58%, McCain 41%

Population: 703,628

Demographics: 82% wh, 12% bl, 1% asn, 3% hisp, 1% other

McCarthy has quite a few new constituents, but most of them are Democrats.  To the east, she picks up Jericho and surrounding counties, and then gets a bunch of racially mixed counties in Queens out of the Old Ninth.  The population base is still Nassau, so I don’t see much risk of a primary challenge here.

District 5:  Gary Ackerman

Current District: Obama 63%, McCain 36%

Proposed District: Obama 55%, McCain 44%

Population: 702, 300

Demographics: 65% wh, 3% bl, 19% asn, 11% hisp, 2% other

Ackerman might not like the district, which is much more Republican and which now stretches across Northern Long Island into Suffolk County. On the other hand, this is a lot of territory that he had in the 1992 iteration of the district, and he has to pick up new areas due to population loss anyway.  He could be vulnerable to a primary challenge, but ultimately low voter participation among recent Hispanic and Asian immigrants probably maintains a pretty white primary electorate here.

District 6:  Gregory Meeks

Current District: Obama 89% McCain 11%

Proposed District:  81% McCain 19%

Population: 699,514

Demographics: 26% wh, 50% bl, 5% asn, 13% hisp, 6% other

It is becoming very, very difficult to maintain three black majority districts in New York City due to population loss and losing district.  We’ll see this in Pennsylvania, Illinois and Michigan this time around as well, where black majority districts created in the 1970s and 1980s are just stretched too thin to continue to exist.  Anyway, Meeks’ district grows west into Brooklyn and maintains its black majority – barely – by picking up some heavily black precincts near Sea Gate and Coney Island.

District 7:  Joe Crowley

Current District: 79% Obama, 20% McCain

Proposed District:  83% Obama, 16% McCain

Population: 701,950

Demographics: 27% wh, 27% bl, 5% asn, 37% hisp, 4% oth

Crowley’s district loses a lot of Queens, and becomes much more of a Bronx-based district, connected by the Bronx-Whitestone bridge.  It’s actually probably a better district for Crowley than his present one, due to low turnout among new minorities.  I doubt he’ll miss Jackson Heights.

District 8:  Jerrold Nadler

Current District:  74% Obama, 26% McCain

Proposed District:  82% Obama, 20% McCain

Population: 702,525

Demographics: 56% wh, 5% bl, 17% asn, 19% hisp

Because I push Velazquez’s district back into Queens, Nadler picks up Hispanic precincts in Southern Manhattan, as well as some old Maloney districts.  Other than that, this should look pretty familiar; it now crosses over the Brooklyn Bridge, and again, I don’t think he’ll miss Bensonhurst.

District 9:  Anthony Weiner

Current District:  55% Obama, 45% McCain

Proposed District: 63% Obama, 37% McCain

Population: 700, 751

Demographics: 57% wh, 10% bl, 14% asn, 16% hisp, 4% other

Weiner loses some of Central Queens to the Fourth, and loses his connection to Brooklyn due to the new Sixth extending all the way across Jamaica Bay.  So I did one of the few really grotesque things with this map.  I put a “tunnel” through East New York to get to a lot of Weiner’s old Brooklyn constituents, and to help break up “Little Texas” in South Brooklyn.  If I just did water contiguity, I could probably “pretty” this up quite a bit.

District 10: Ed Towns

Current District:  91% Obama, 9% McCain

Proposed District:  80% Obama, 20% McCain

Population:  704,800

Demographics: 27% wh, 50% bl, 5% asn, 15% hisp, 3% oth

This district maintains its black majority (barely) and is much more compact than the present district.  It is still based around East New York.  The problem is that with stagnant population growth and the need of every district in the state to take on a fair number of new constituents due to the eliminated district, there just aren’t a whole lot of African American voters to split between three black-majority districts.  So I took some additional voters from Little Texas and added them on.  They won’t be voting in a Democratic primary anytime soon anyway.

District 11:  Yvette Clarke

Current District:  91% Obama, 9% McCain

Proposed District:  85% Obama, 15%

Population:  693,425

Demographics:  27% wh, 50% bl, 5% asn, 15% hisp, 3% other

Clarke has to pick up a substantial number of new constituents as well, from  her Bed-Stuy district, so I use her to break up South Brooklyn.  This is one of the bigger deviations from the equal population standard, but it’s hard to bring her numbers up while maintaining the black majority.

District 12:  Nydia Velazquez

Current District:  86% Obama, 13% McCain

Proposed District: 82% Obama, 17% McCain

Population:  700,933

Demographics: 19% wh, 12% bl, 14% asn, 52% hisp, 3% other

This is more like Velazquez’s 1990s district, which took in the Hispanic vote in Northern Queens, rather than NYC.  There’s an ugly tunnel across Brooklyn to connect to Velazquez’s home in Carroll Gardens, but this is still an improvement in terms of compactness from the present one.

District 13:  Michael McMahon

Current District:  49% Obama, 51% McCain

Proposed District:  54% Obama, 46% McCain

Population:  695, 331

Demographics: 65% wh, 7% bl, 10% asn, 15% hisp, 2% other

I was bound and determined not to split Staten Island and not to use the Staten Island ferry to connect the district to the City.  It just didn’t work – I could get up to 53% Obama but not 54%.  I suppose if I knew the City better I could do it, but I didn’t feel like testing out every precinct in Brooklyn.  Besides, for most of the district’s existence it was joined with Manhattan via the ferry anyways, not into Brooklyn, so I can live with this.

District 14:  Carolyn Maloney

Current District:  78% Obama, 21% McCain

Proposed District:  80% Obama, 19% McCain

Population: 697, 918

Demographics: 54% wh, 12% bl, 8% asian, 22% hisp, 4% other

Maloney loses a good chunk of the Lower East Side, but picks up Clinton Hill, Williamsburg, and Greenpoint.  Connection to the island is still through the Queens Midtown Tunnel.

District 15:  Charlie Rangel

Current District: 93% Obama, 6% McCain

Proposed District:  93% Obama, 6% McCain

Population:  706, 188

Demographics:  20% wh, 29% bl, 3% asn, 46% hisp, 2% other.

Not a whole lot of changes for Rangel, who goes a little further into the Upper East Side and loses Queens.  Rangel could be vulnerable to a primary challenge from the burgeoning Hispanic community, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

District 16: Jose Serrano

Current District: 95% Obama, 5% McCain

Proposed District: 93% Obama, 7% McCain

Population: 703,044

Demographics: 6% wh, 29% bl, 2% asn, 61% hisp, 2% other

Not many changes here to this Southwest Bronx district.  This remains among the top 5 most heavily Democratic districts in the country.

District 17:  Eliot Engel

Current District: 72% Obama, 28% McCain

Proposed District: 55% Obama, 45% McCain

Population:  698, 694

Demographics:  73% wh, 10% bl, 4% asn, 12% hisp, 2% other

Oh, Engel’s not going to like this.  He loses a chunk of the Bronx and gains all of Sullivan and half of Orange County.  He could presumably lose a primary, but while Engel is a solid liberal, he’s not really a rock star of the party.  If you aren’t obsessed with keeping counties together, you could give Nita Lowey parts of Rockland in exchange for parts of Yonkers and shore Engel up.  But at the end of the day, this is how you make upstate districts more Democratic.

District 18:  Nita Lowey

Current District: 62% Obama, 38% McCain

Proposed District: 67% Obama, 33% McCain

Population: 707, 243

Demographics: 56% wh, 20% bl, 4% asn, 17% hisp, 3% other

Lowey gets more of Westchester and a more Democratic district.  She’ll still like this a lot more than her 1992 district, which actually went down in the Bronx and Queens.  

District 19:  John Hall

Current District:  51% Obama, 48% McCain

Proposed District:  54% Obama, 46% McCain

Population: 700,714

Demographics:  79% wh, 7%bl, 3% asn, 10% hisp, 1% other

Hall is still the one to represent FDR’s old stomping grounds.  He gives up a chunk of Orange and Rockland Counties and gets a lot of Westchester, while keeping his Dutchess and Putnam County bases.  That’s a good trade for him; he’ll still be the one here.

District 20:  Scott Murphy

Current District:  51% Obama, 48% McCain

Proposed District:  54% Obama, 45% McCain

Population:  704,604

Demographics:  91% wh, 4% bl, 1% asn, 2% hisp, 1% other

This district becomes much more compact.  It loses its spike into Essex County and its extension into Delaware County, but it gains heavily Democratic parts of Rensselear and an Albany precinct for 1p1v purposes.  Much better territory for Murphy.  

District 21:  Paul Tonko

Current District:  58% Obama, 40% McCain

Proposed District:  55% Obama, 43% McCain

Population:  697,033

Demographics:  89% wh, 5% bl, 1% asn, 3% hisp, 1% other

The heart of this district actually remains very much the same:  Albany, Schoharie and Montgomery counties.  Tonko loses the city of Schenectady to shore up the 23rd, and picks up lightly populated, but fairly Republican Cortland, Chenango, Otsego, Greene and Herkimer Counties.  Tonko should have little trouble keeping this seat, even with the reduced Democratic percentages.

District 22:  Maurice Hinchey

Current District:  59% Obama, 39% McCain

Proposed District: 56% Obama, 42% McCain

Population: 704,793

Demographics: 89% wh, 3% bl, 2% asn, 3% hisp, 2% other

Hinchey loses the Sullivan and parts of Rockland Counties.  Because of population loss, he picks up entire versions of Delaware, Broome, Tioga, and Tompkins Counties, and then takes Chemung, Schuyler and Yates out of the 29th and 26th.  The tendril over to Ithaca is actually less obvious because of this, and it’s a nicer looking district.  He keeps all of his Ulster base.

District 23:  Bill Owens

Current District:  52% Obama, 46% McCain

Proposed District:  54% Obama, 44% McCain

Population:  702, 958

Demographics:  91% wh, 3% bl, 1% asn, 2% hisp, 1% other

This district is fundamentally unchanged.  Owens loses the more conservative portions of Oneida County and Madison County, while picking up the heavily Democratic Schenectady precincts.  The three North Country are still kept together.

District 24:  Mike Arcuri

Current District:  51% Obama, 48% McCain

Proposed District:  54% Obama, 45% McCain

Population:  696, 248

Demographics:  88% wh, 6% bl, 1% nat, 1% asn, 2% hisp, 1% other

Gone is the crescent-shaped old 24th.  Instead, Arcuri keeps his Oneida County base, and picks up a chunk of Syracuse, with Madison in between.  It’s a good tradeoff for the rural counties he gives up, though he may be more vulnerable to a primary challenge.

District 25:  Dan Maffei

Current District:  56% Obama, 43% McCain

Proposed District:  54% Obama, 45% McCain

Population:  696,671

Demographics:  88% wh, 6% bl, 2% asn, 2% hisp, 1% other

Pretty simple concept going on here.  Maffei keeps most of central Syracuse, and Wayne County, picks up some suburbs of the ‘Cuse, a couple of small rural districts, and a lot more of Rochester.  Population loss in this area just requires everyone to get a lot of new constituents regardless, but his district is pretty safe.

District 26:  Brian Higgins

Current District:  54% Obama, 44% McCain

Proposed District:  54% Obama, 44% McCain

Population:  694,363

Demographics: 83% wh, 10%bl, 1% nat, 1%asn, 4% hisp, 8% other

Higgins picks up Cattaraugus, Allegany, and part of Wyoming Counties, but makes up for it with more of central Buffalo.  It’s a wash for him.  As a side note, I’m genuinely interested what the 8% “other” is.

District 27:  Louise Slaughter

Current District:  69% Obama, 30% McCain

Proposed District:  54% Obama, 44% McCain

Population:  693,836

Demographics:  85%wh, 8% bl, 2% asn, 4% hisp, 1% other

Okay, first a gripe.  If Slaughter would move to the west side of Rochester, we could do a lot better here.  Since she’s 80, I was half tempted to just do it anyway, but I guess I don’t get to make the contest rules.  🙂 Anyway, by expanding into Orleans County she gets a more compact-looking district.  Her failure to hoard Democrats in Buffalo and Rochester is why this whole thing works.  This could result in the election of a blue dog-type Democrat, but trading Slaughter for a blue dog as a price for getting rid of Chris Lee strikes me as a good deal.

District 28:  Chris Lee and Eric Massa

Current District:  51% McCain, 48% Obama (Massa)

Current District:  52% McCain, 46% Obama (Lee)

Proposed District:  54% Obama, 45% McCain  

Population: 695, 120

Demographics: 82% wh, 12% bl, 1% asn, 3% hisp, 1% other

This is really Lee’s old district at heart, with Massa’s home base tacked on.  The big difference is that Lee loses half of Wyoming County to Higgins while picking up some nasty precincts around Buffalo and Rochester.  Assuming Massa doesn’t lose a primary challenge, he should be able to win in a much bluer district.

Q.E.D.

I aimed for a 27-1 district so I could shore up all the Democrats. I thought about going for a 28-0 district but I believe the main priority should be protecting the Democrats in Upstate New York because many of them hold marginal districts. Chris Lee is the only Republican in the Upstate New York Congressional delegation. I strengthened him while I gave Peter King (R) who represents the 3rd Congressional district a very tough time in Long Island. He lives in Seaford which is in eastern Nassau County along the coast. It is possible he could win but it is very unlikely. I also aimed to retain the African American majority of the 6th, 10th and 11th districts and increase the African American population of the 15th district. I also kept the 16th district’s heavy Hispanic majority, and made the 12th and 7th Hispanic majority districts. I also made sure no district (except the 26th which Chris Lee represents) fell below 53% for Obama (only the 2nd district was 53% for Obama.) The 1st, 20th, 22nd, 23rd and 24th were all 54% for Obama, though. The district I eliminated was Freshman Eric Massa’s (D) 29th district which contained some rural areas and part of Monroe County (Rochester.) Massa lived in Corning which is far away from Rochester, McCain won the district and I had to eliminate someone so I chose him. Just for your info, the home of each representative is next to his or her name. Also, current percentages show how well each presidential candidate performed in the current lines of a congressional district. The change shows how better or worse Obama’s performance is in the district I drew compared to the old one. “Important areas” refers to important areas inside the district I drew. Also, I tried to not draw convoluted districts except I did not succeed with the 4th. I did not want to make big changes because in my opinion, realistically, the map if the Democrats control the State Senate should not be too different from the current map but it should still strengthen Democrats. Here are some helpful links:

For maps and information on current Congressional districts: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N…

For election results by county: http://www.uselectionatlas.org…

For demographic data by county: http://quickfacts.census.gov/q…

where you can find locations of certain towns and neighborhoods: http://maps.google.com/

Long Island

1st District Tim Bishop (D) Southampton

Vote totals: Obama 162,072 54%, McCain 135,928 45%

Demographics: 6% African American, 11% Hispanic and 79% White    

Current percentages: Obama 52% McCain 48% Change: Obama +5

Population: 701,151

Important areas: Suffolk County, Riverhead, Port Jefferson and Islip. I removed Smithtown from the district which is politically marginal. I added in heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Islip to help strengthen Bishop. These changes are not foolproof protections but he is much safer than he currently is so I expect him to be fine. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

2nd district Steve Israel (D) Huntington Village

Vote totals: Obama 157,988 53%, McCain 139,528 47%

Demographics: 7% African American, 10% Hispanic and 77% White

Current percentages: Obama 56% McCain 43%

Change: Obama -7

Population:700,773              

Important areas: Suffolk County, Nassau County, Brentwood, part of Huntington, part of Oyster Bay, part of Islip, Smithtown, and Babylon. I weakened Israel a bit by removing Democratic parts of Islip and adding in more of the Republican South Coast, including part of Peter King’s current district. I retained Jewish neighborhoods in Oyster Bay and a few Hispanic neighborhoods in Islip. Peter King does not live in this district and since only a bit of his current district is in the 2nd, I do not see him running here. He may try but since he is running in mostly unfamiliar territory, he should not have the best shot. Israel’s district has the lowest Obama performance (except for the 26th.) Still, he has faced token opposition in recent years winning 67% of the vote in 2008. His strong stance on Israel should keep him strong among Jewish voters. Unless a very strong challenger such as Peter King challenges Israel, he should be fine. Status is Likely Democratic, Lean Democratic if Peter King runs.

3rd District Peter King (R)

Vote totals: Obama 184,548 58%, McCain 134,192 41%

Demographics: 18% African American, 11% Hispanic and 66% White

Current percentages: McCain 52% Obama 47%

Change: Obama +22

Population: 700,433

Important areas: Nassau County, a tiny slice of Queens County, Hempstead, South Oyster Bay and Long Beach. Peter King has no good options with the new map. This district contains large parts of his old district so if I were him, I would probably chose to run here. There are just a few problems for him: his district is now 68% White instead of 86% White, the district has heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Hempstead, Valley Stream and a few precincts in Queens where Obama won 98% of the vote (no, I am not kidding.) McCain won 52% under the current lines and even though King has most of his base here, about half of the district is new territory and the new territory is heavily Democratic. King may put up a strong fight but he is unlikely to make inroads in the district’s new territory so he should lose by a few points. If Andrew Cuomo (D) runs for Governor, he should boost up the Democratic ticket and King will certainly lose. Status is Lean Democratic if Peter King runs, Likely Democratic if he does not.

4th District Carolyn McCarthy (D) Mineola

Vote totals: Obama 170,373 56%, McCain 134,300 43%

Demographics: 8% African American, 10% Hispanic, 11% Asian and 68% White Current percentages: Obama 58% McCain 41% Change: Obama -4

Population:700,400

Important areas: Nassau County, Queens County, Suffolk County, Huntington, Glen Cove, Oyster Bay, Oakland Gardens and Mineola. McCarthy should not be overjoyed with her district but she should be safe. It is a bit convoluted because I had it take marginal parts of Huntington and then I sent the district into Queens to get some Democratic neighborhoods. Most of those neighborhoods were in the 60’s for Obama. McCarthy would have to get used to her new territory but it is Democratic enough to keep her safe. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

5th District Gary Ackerman (D) Rosalyn Heights vs. Joseph Crowley (D) Elmhurst

Vote totals: Obama 127,658 59%, McCain 85,585 40%

Demographics: 18% Hispanic, 26% Asian and 50% White

Current percentages: Obama 63% McCain 36% Change: Obama -8

Population: 701,084  

Important areas: Queens County, Nassau County, Great Neck, Little Neck, Beechcrest and Rosalyn Heights. The Queens portion of the district used to be very white and working class but now it is one of the most diverse areas in the country. Still, the district is not minority majority yet but in a few years, it will be. Ackerman gains some Republican parts of Nassau County while losing some heavily Hispanic areas in Queens to the 12th district. Still, he is very safe and he has a smaller chance of a minority candidate giving him a strong primary challenge. The only part of Crowley’s district that the 5th has is Crowley’s home Elmhurst so I expect him to run in the current 7th district which has most of his old district. He would probably lose to Ackerman in a primary if he ran here. Status is Safe Democratic.

New York City

6th District Gregory Meeks (D) Far Rockaway

Vote totals: Obama 195,708 78%, McCain 52,681 21%

Demographics: 50% African American, 13% Hispanic, 6% Asian and 25% White.

Current percentages: Obama 89% McCain 11%

Change:Obama-21

Population:701,133

Important areas: Queens County, Nassau County, Rockaway, Jamaica, Queens Village and Locust Manor. The old 6th district has many Democrats to spare so I gave the 6th district Republican parts of the Rockaway Peninsula and Nassau County. The district’s numbers are pretty polarized because although Obama crushes McCain at a first glance, there are some precincts on Breezy Point (Rockaway Peninsula) that are 70% for McCain or more that I added here. To be able to take Republican parts of Nassau County while keeping the population African American majority, I had to extend the district across Jamaica Bay to include African American areas in Canarsie. Meeks has his home in this district; he should have absolutely no problem here. Status is Safe Democratic

7th District Vacant

Vote totals: Obama 155,777 84%, McCain 26,639 15%

Demographics: 21% African American, 52% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 19% White

Current percentages: Obama 79% McCain 20% Change: Obama +10

Population:701,275

Important areas: Queens County, Bronx County, Westchester County, Jackson Heights, Westchester Village and Eastchester Bay. Due to New York City’s growing Hispanic population, I realized it needed another Hispanic majority district. I removed College Park and Elmhurst while adding Longwood and other Hispanic neighborhoods in the Bronx. This increased the Hispanic population from 40% to 52%. If Crowley wanted to run, he would probably head here since this contains most of his old district. Since the district has a Hispanic majority, a Hispanic candidate should have a good shot even though Hispanics tend to have lower turnout than other groups of voters so they probably will not make up the majority of the district’s votes. I am expecting a three way race with an African American candidate, Joseph Crowley and a Hispanic candidate. I am not sure if Ruben Espinosa, a conservative Democrat who represents New York’s 32nd Senate district will run here but he may be too conservative for voters who are unfamiliar with him. Then again, there may not be a brawl if the establishment gets behind a candidate. The establishment should not be pleased with Espinosa because he was an advocate for preventing same sex couples from obtaining equal marriage rights. Anyway, no Republican should win here. Status is Safe Democratic.

8th District Vacant

Vote totals: Obama 135,904 66%, McCain 69,115 33%

Demographics: 9% Hispanic, 19%Asian and 65% White

Current percentages: Obama 74% McCain 26%

Change: Obama -15

Population: 700,805

Important areas: Brooklyn, Manhattan, Borough Park, Bay Ridge and Flatiron. Other changes I made included adding Bay Ridge and part of Chinatown while removing Coney Island, Chelsea and the Upper West Side. Besides water contiguity, the Brooklyn Bridge also connects the district. I removed Nadler’s home from the district but since the 8th still contains most of the old district, he will probably run here and win. Something interesting is how polarized certain parts of the district are. Borough Park has voting district BK48 022 where Obama only won 2% of the vote. This is probably because there is an Orthodox Jewish community there and they sometimes vote almost simultaneously for certain candidates. Anyway, the district is too Democratic for the Borough Park precincts to have an effect. Status is Safe Democratic.

9th District Anthony Weiner (D) Forest Hills

Vote totals: Obama 125,869 64%, McCain 69,328 35%

Demographics: 11% African American, 18% Hispanic, 13% Asian and 52% White

Current percentages: Obama 55% McCain 44% Change: Obama +18              

Population: 701,194

Important areas: Queens, Brooklyn, Forest Hills, Brighton Beach and Ozone Park. I increased Obama’s percentage here from 55% to 64% by removing the Rockaway Peninsula and other not heavily Democratic neighborhoods. I also added African American neighborhoods in Flatlands, increasing the African American percentage here from 4% to 11%. Anyway, I do not see a Republican winning with these new changes. Status is Safe Democratic.

10th District Edolphus Towns (D) East New York

Vote totals: Obama 189,570 84%, McCain 34,120 15%

Demographics: 53% African American, 16% Hispanic and 24% White                            

Current percentages: Obama 91% McCain 9% Change: Obama -14

Population: 700,447

Important areas: Brooklyn, East New York, Brownsville and Bedford-Stuyvesant. This district undergoes a few changes by taking some primarily white neighborhoods and losing parts of Canarsie. I exchanged the neighborhoods with the 9th district to make the 9th safer for Weiner. The 10th still is heavily Democratic and complies with the VRA. Status is Safe Democratic.

11th District Yvette Clarke (D) Flatbush

Vote totals: Obama 190,135 88%, McCain 24,313 11%

Demographics: 52% African American, 14% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 24% White.

Current percentages: Obama 91% McCain 9%

Change: Obama -5

Population: 700,427

Important areas: Brooklyn, Flatbush and Crown Heights. The 11th district does not change much either, remaining heavily African American and Democratic even though there a few precincts that voted 90% for McCain here. Status is Safe Democratic.

12th District Nydia Velazquez (D) Williamsburg

Vote totals: Obama 153,958 85%, McCain 26,105 14%

Demographics: 9% African American, 52% Hispanic, 12% Asian and 22% White.

Current percentages: Obama 86% McCain 13%

Change: Obama -2                

Population: 700,906

Important areas: Queens, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Williamsburg, Fresh Pond Junction, and Lower East Side. The district is contiguous with Manhattan not just throughout water but also through a bridge. I shifted the district north to include some Hispanic neighborhoods east of Astoria and while removing some neighborhoods in Brooklyn for population purposes. These changes give this district a Hispanic majority even though they probably do not make up the majority of the voters yet. I assumed this because Hispanics usually have lower turnout levels than other voters’ turnout levels. I barely kept Velazquez’s home in this district by keeping it one voting district away from the 14th but at least she will not have to move. Overall, Velazquez should have no trouble in an election or a primary. Status is Safe Democratic.

13th District Michael McMahon (D) Staten Island

Vote totals: Obama 165,015 62%, McCain 100,172 37%

Demographics: 8% African American, 13% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 70% White

Current percentages: Obama 49% McCain 51% Change: Obama +27

Population:700,828

Important areas: all of Richmond County (Staten Island,) Manhattan, Chelsea, Hell’s Kitchen and the Financial District. In 2008, McMahon was elected into the current 13th district which McCain narrowly won. I made sure McMahon has no trouble here by connecting the district to Manhattan by the Hudson River and the Staten Island Ferry route. Even though about 1/3 of the district is in Manhattan, that portion voted more than 80% for Obama so it makes the district Democratic overall. Staten Island barely voted for McCain. McMahon should win easily. Status is Safe Democratic.

14th District Caroline Maloney (D) Upper East Side vs. Jerrold Nadler (D) Upper West Side

Vote totals: Obama 234,406 80%, McCain 56,462 19%

Demographics: 12% Hispanic, 8% Asian and 73% White

Current percentages: Obama 78% McCain 21% Change: Obama +5  

Population: 700,489

Important areas: Queens, Manhattan, Upper West Side, Upper East Side and Astoria. This district loses some minority majority areas in Queens but is kept contiguous with the Queens portion by the Queensboro Bridge and the East River. I gave the district the Upper West Side with Nadler’s home but since most of his current district is in the 8th, I expect him to move there and run in it. Maloney should be safe from any challenge. Status is Safe Democratic.

15th District Charlie Rangel (D) Harlem

Vote totals: Obama 220,118 92%, McCain 18,510 7%

Demographics: 36% African American, 42% Hispanic and 17% White.

Current percentages: Obama 93% McCain 6% Change: Obama -2                          

Population: 700,237

Important areas: Manhattan, Bronx, Hamilton Heights, Harlem and Woodlawn Heights. I made the district more African American by adding in Woodlawn Heights and removing heavily Hispanic Washington Heights. The Triborough Bridge connects the small slice of Queens. Rangel should retire soon and I wanted to make it easier for an African American to replace him. Hispanics should soon cast more votes in the Democratic primary here but right now, African Americans probably make up the majority. Status is Safe Democratic.

16th District Jose Serrano (D) South Bronx

Vote totals: Obama 157,529 94%, McCain 10,205 5% Demographics: 26% African American, 63% Hispanic and 6% White.

Current percentages: Obama 95% McCain 5%Change: Obama -1

Population: 700,237

Important areas: Bronx, South Bronx, University Heights, Mt. Hope and Yankee Stadium! Serrano’s district shifts west a bit to pick up Washington Heights and a few other primarily Hispanic neighborhoods from the 15th. Besides these adjustments, the district remains mostly the same, heavily Hispanic and Democratic. Status is Safe Democratic.

Westchester

17th District Eliot Engel (D) Riverdale

Vote totals: Obama 169,832 61%, McCain 104,965 38%

Demographics: 24% African American, 12% Hispanic and 58% White.

Current percentages: Obama 73% McCain 26% Change: Obama -24

Population: 700,317

Important areas: Bronx, Westchester County, Rockland County, Orange County, Wakefield, Mt. Vernon, and Yonkers. Engel’s district adds all of Rockland County where Obama won 53% of the vote and it adds parts of Orange County that lean Republican (Orange County in 2008 was not colored orange, Obama won it by a few points.) I had to take out parts of the Bronx for population purposes. Overall, I reduced Obama’s percentage from 73% to 61%. This is still a safe enough district for Engel so he should have no trouble with reelection. Status is Safe Democratic.

18th District Nita Lowey (D) Harrison

Vote totals: Obama 187,681 61%, McCain 116,591 38%

Demographics: 10% African American, 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 68% White

Current percentages: Obama 62% McCain 38%

Change: Obama -1

Population: 698,674

Important areas: Westchester County, Yonkers, New Rochelle and White Plains. I removed all of Rockland County, pushed the district to the Putnam County border and removed some Democratic precincts along the river. Lowey’s district is a few points less Democratic but she should have no problem winning reelection. Status is Safe Democratic.

19th District John Hall (D) Dover

Vote totals: Obama 164,634 55%, McCain 134,119 44%

Demographics: 8% African American, 10% Hispanic and 77% White

Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48% Change: Obama +8

Population: 700,453

Important areas: Westchester County, Putnam County, Orange County, Dutchess County, Newburgh, Poughkeepsie and Middletown. Hall keeps his home in the district but it shifts north a bit. It loses southern Orange County while picking up Democratic Newburgh and Poughkeepsie. I also extended a finger into southern Westchester County to pick up Democratic areas there. These changes shift the district a few points to the left. Hall could have a tough race with a strong challenge but for now, he looks very safe. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic.

Upstate

East Upstate

Western Upstate

20th District Scott Murphy (D) Glen Falls

Vote totals: Obama 176,409 54%, McCain 146,305 45%

Demographics: 91% White

Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48% Change: Obama +6

Population: 700,742

Important areas: Dutchess County, Columbia County, Renneslar County, Schenectady County, Saratoga County, Washington County, Warren County, Essex County, Clinton County, Schenectady, Troy and Saratoga Springs. Jim Tedisco (R) ran against Scott Murphy for this seat and lost by a few hundred votes. Since Tedisco is from Saratoga County, I removed all the Republicans parts of it. Due to population growth, I needed to move the district north into Clinton County for population purposes but since Clinton County is Democratic, this helps strengthen the district. Adding Schenectady while removing Republican parts of Delaware County helped make this district safer. Murphy is a freshman in Congress so a strong challenge can still unseat him but he is safer now. Status is Likely Democratic.

21st District Paul Tonko (D) Amsterdam

Vote totals: Obama 180,169 55%, McCain 144,547 44%

Demographics: 5% African American, 90% White

Current percentages: Obama 58% McCain 40% Change: Obama -6

Population: 700,462

Important areas: Albany County, Schohane County, Otsego County, Herkimer County, Fulton County, Montgomery County, Saratoga County, Albany. The 21st district grows more Republican by losing Schenectady and Troy. I added Otsego and Herkimer Counties. Otsego is marginal but Herkimer is heavily Republican. These changes drop Obama’s percentage from the high 50’s to 54%. Tonko is also new but since he has heavily Democratic Albany in his district, it should protect him unless he faces a very strong challenge. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic.

22nd District Maurice Hinchey (D) Hurley vs. Eric Massa (D) Corning

Vote totals: Obama 172,318 54%, McCain 142,676 45%

Demographics: 89% White

Current percentages: Obama 59% McCain 39% Change: Obama -11

Population: 698,990

Important areas: Ulster County, Orange County, Sullivan County, Delaware County, Broome County, Tioga County, Tompkins County, Chemung County, Steuban County, Kingston and Binghamton. I weakened Hinchey to protect other Democrats. I removed heavily Democratic Ithaca in Tompkins County while adding some rural territory nearby that leans Republican. Hinchey retains his home and it should be hard for a Republican challenger to unseat him since he is entrenched here. I slipped in Eric Massa’s home in Corning but since I placed almost no other territory here currently in Massa’s district, Hinchey should win a primary against Massa who was elected in 2008. Status is Safe Democratic.

23rd District Bill Owens (D) Plattsburgh

Vote totals: Obama 154,639 54%, McCain 124,322 44%

Demographics: 92% White

Current percentages: Obama 52% McCain 47% Change: Obama +5

Population: 698,458

Important areas: Clinton County, Franklin County, St. Lawrence County, Hamilton County, Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, Onondaga County, Syracuse and Watertown. Owens is the newest Democrat in Congress due to his upset victory here over Conservative Doug Hoffman in a special election last November. To protect Owens, I removed all of Oneida County which leans Republican while adding about 1/3 of heavily Democratic Syracuse. These changes bolster Obama’s performance by five points and although they do not completely protect Owens, he should be safe enough. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

24th District Michael Arcuri (D) Utica

Vote totals: Obama 166,172 54%, McCain 134,215 44%

Demographics: 6% African American, 88% White

Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48% Change: Obama +7

Population: 698,920

Important areas: Onondaga County, Oneida County, Madison County, Chenango County, Otsego County, Delaware County, Cortland County, Tompkins County, Ithaca, Syracuse and Rome (not in Italy.) Arcuri won only 51%-49% when I thought he would have no trouble winning reelection. He was elected only in 2006 so he needs time to get entrenched. I helped protect Arcuri by removing some rural counties that Obama or McCain barely won. The district used to be primarily rural. I added in Cornell University in heavily Democratic Ithaca and I added in heavily Democratic parts of Syracuse too. These changes make Obama’s margin seven points larger than the current district. If the district did not include Oneida County, Obama’s performance would be higher. Since Arcuri lives in Oneida County, he is pretty popular there so he needed to worry about candidates pilling up margins in the rural counties. Not anymore, Arcuri looks safe here. Status is Safe Democratic.

25th District Dan Maffei (D) Dewitt

Vote totals: Obama 186,077 57%, McCain 136,799 42%

Demographics: 11% African American, 5% Hispanic, and 82% White

Current percentages: Obama 56% McCain 43% Change: Obama +2

Population: 697,859

Important areas: Onondaga County, Cayuga County, Seneca County, Ontario County, Yates County, Wayne County, Monroe County, Rochester and Syracuse. Maffei won this district easily in 2008 so his district did not much strengthening. I removed most of Syracuse to protect the 23rd and 24th districts but I had to extend the 25th through Syracuse to connect to Dewitt, Maffei’s home. I added in the rural counties such as Cayuga, Seneca, Ontario and Yates so other districts would not hold them. Those counties are marginal. Maffei should have no trouble winning under the new lines because I added in most of heavily Democratic Rochester. Maffei should have no complaints. Status is Safe Democratic

Buffalo/Rochester area



26th District Chris Lee (R) Clarence

Vote totals: Obama 136,910 42%, McCain 183,059 56%

Demographics: 94% White

Current percentages: Obama 46% McCain 52% Change: Obama -8

Population: 698,474

Important areas: Erie County, Cattaraugus County, Niagara County, Genesee County, Wyoming County, Livingston County, Monroe County, Allegany County, Steuban County, Schuyler County, Batavia and Hornell. I wanted to make Lee very safe so he could take away areas that could weaken Democratic incumbents. I removed some Democratic Buffalo suburbs in Erie County while adding in Republican suburbs in Erie County. I removed a few voting districts in Monroe County too. The new territory I added was rural counties along the Pennsylvania border that are currently in the 29th district. These changes make Lee safer and hopefully the only Republican in the New York Congressional delegation. Status is Safe Republican.

27th District Brian Higgins (D) South Buffalo District

Vote totals: Obama 187,563 55%, McCain 145,799 43%

Demographics: 7% African American, 87% White

Current percentages: Obama 54% McCain 44% Change: Obama +2

Population: 698,914

Important areas: Chautauqua County, Erie County, Buffalo and Tonawanda. Higgins seems safe in his district but to strengthen him, I removed Republican precincts in eastern Erie County to put them in the 26th district. I added suburban territory that leans Democratic around Tonawanda. These changes increase Obama’s performance just a bit and protect Higgins who appears to be popular in this district. Status is Safe Democratic.

28th District Louise Slaughter (D) Fairport

Vote totals: Obama 193,491 61%, McCain 119,737 38%

Demographics: 15% African American and 76% White

Current percentages: Obama 69% McCain 30% Change: Obama -16

Population: 698.682

Important areas: Erie County, Niagara County, Orleans County, Monroe County, Buffalo, Niagara Falls and Rochester. To strengthen the 25th and 27th districts, I made the 28th much more Republican. I removed most of Rochester while adding marginal suburban areas currently in the 26th and the 29th districts. Even though Obama’s performance drops by 16 points, this is still the most Democratic district in Upstate New York. Status is Safe Democratic

Here’s my contest entry, creating a 27-1 redistricted map for the State of New York.

I had several goals in mind, most lining up with the contest rules anyway.

Here were some of my guiding principles:

* Keep incumbents’ homes in their current districts where possible.  

* Pay special attention to good Democrats in bad or mediocre districts.

* Don’t get greedy and gamble too much; don’t repeat the mistakes the GOP made in Pennsylvania and Ohio 10 years ago and turn safe districts into vulnerable ones.

* Comply with all VRA mandates, but don’t overpack minority-majority districts.

I didn’t, in most cases, pay a lot of attention to keeping counties together. I kept most cities, other than NYC obviously, in one district most of the time. (I think whoever posted that comment in someone else’s contest entry that Staten Islanders would be angry at whoever approved a plan to split Staten Island was dead on.)

I tried to stay away from ridiculous gerrymanders for the most part, but had to succumb in a few instances. With the exception of placing Rikers Island (accessible by bridge from Queens but not the Bronx, even though it is considered part of Bronx County) in the Bronx-based NY-16 I did not create any district whose parts whose only contiguity was open non-bridged/tunneled water.

Upstate

Upstate New York Map

Buffalo Area Map

Rochester Area Map

Albany Area Map

NY-28 (Pale Pink)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-29: McCain 51-48

New NY-28: Obama 51-47 (+4D)

Demographic Data –

Old NY-29: 93% White, 3% Black, 2% Asian, 1% Hispanic

New NY-28: 92% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

Incumbent: Eric Massa (D-Corning)

Description: Running along a narrow strip the Southern Tier along the Pennsylvania border from Delaware to Cattaraugus County, then including all of Chautauqua and parts of Erie County. Essentially replaces the current NY-29.

Comments: Yeah, this one is a bit unwiedly. Most of the smaller towns of the Southern Tier are so intensely Republican that this district had to run a long way to become a Democratic district. Most of that strength comes from the opposite ends of the district’s length – one end that includes most of the Binghamton metro area and another end covering certain southern and western suburbs of Buffalo, particularly strongly Democratic portions of Lackawanna, West Seneca, and Cheektowaga. In between the pickings are slim; there’s the whole of Chautaqua County, notably less hostile to Democrats as a whole than the counties between there and Binghamton. NY-28 seeks out the more Democratic cities and towns in an otherwise Republican area, including Alfred, Wellsville, Elmira, and, conveniently enough, Eric Massa’s home of Corning. The big change is the new NY-28, unlike the old NY-29, goes nowhere near Rochester. Nearly 25% of the district’s population is in Erie County.

Bottom Line: Still a marginal district, but a little better given that any Republican challenger is going to have to make himself known in both the Binghamton and Buffalo markets. Of course, so is Massa.  He’s been a terrific Congressman, so hopefully he can hold on.

NY-27 (Seafoam Green)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-27: Obama 54-44

New NY-27: Obama 62-37 (+8D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-27: 91% White, 5% Hispanic, 4% Black, 2% Asian

New NY-27: 76% White, 16% Black, 4% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Incumbent: Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo)

Description: Contains portions of Erie and Niagra counties, including the entire cities of Buffalo, North Tonawanda, and Niagra Falls.

Comments: This district shifts northward, taking in all of Buffalo and most of the inner suburbs, such as Amherst and Tonawanda, that are not in NY-28. The old district went south of Buffalo instead and included a fair amount of hostile territory, because it was created for Republican Jack Quinn. The Democratic numbers here improve dramatically due to the inclusion of the whole of Buffalo rather than losing the most Democratic parts to the notorious “earmuffs” of the current NY-28.

Bottom Line: Given Democrats’ trouble in parts of the decaying industrial Rust Belt, the old district could have been vulnerable, but this new district seems pretty safe for Higgins and his successors.

NY-5 (Golden Yellow)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-26: 52-46 McCain

New NY-5: 57-41 McCain (+5 R)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-26: 93% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

New NY-5: 95% White, 2% Black, 1% Hispanic

Descriptions: Containing all of three counties, and portions of eleven more, this sprawling (and yet reasonable-looking) piece of territory covers the most Republican portions of the Buffalo and Rochester suburbs, the largely Republican turf between them, and most of the strongly GOP rural Southern Tier…you get the idea. [Note: I labelled this district as “NY-5” because, well, it seemed the best color contrast with the other districts in the area; in my first draft of this map, the 5th and 18th districts had a long border, which was annoying since they were similar shades of yellow.]

Incumbent: Chris Lee (R-Clarence)

Comments: All the Republicans in western New York (with a few from Central New York thrown in for good measure) had to go somewhere, and this is where I stuffed as many of them as I could. For the price of keeping other Democrats safe, I wrote this one off. It didn’t make any sense to me to have as many 50-50 Buffalo and Rochester suburbs in there as the current 26th does.

Bottom Line: Safe Republican. You can’t win ’em all.

NY-26 (Dark Gray)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-28: Obama 69-30

New NY-26: Obama 59-40 (-10D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-28:  64% White, 30% Black, 5% Hispanic, 2% Asian

New NY-26: 78% White, 13% Black, 5% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter (D-Perinton)

Description: No more earmuffs; this district is now firmly in the Rochester orbit as the portions in and around Buffalo are gone. It includes all of the city of Rochester and the majority of its suburbs, excluding the most Republican areas to the west and a few eastern suburbs that are in NY-25. It’s mostly in Monroe County, with some portions of Wayne, Ontario, and Livingston in there as well. Basically replaces the existing NY-28.

Comments: This is a signifcantly weaker district for Democrats without Buffalo, but I’m not too worried. The two appendages to the south are one into Livingston County to grab college town Geneseo and the other into Ontario County to get the city of Candindiagua.

Bottom Line: Slaughter trades a less Democratic district for not having to cover Buffalo anymore. She and her Democratic successors should still be fine. There are a lot less wasted votes here now.

NY-25 (Salmon Pink)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-25: Obama 56-43

New NY-25: Obama 56-43 (unch.)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-25: 88% White, 7% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian

New NY-25: 88% White, 6% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Incumbent: Dan Maffei (D-DeWitt)

Description: The current NY-25 is very close to the existing district. Anchored now as before by Syracuse, it includes most of Onondaga County, including all of Syracuse; to the east it includes portions of Oswego, Madison, Oneida, and Lewis Counties, while to the west it includes northern Cayuga County, most of Wayne County and a few Rochester suburbs in Monroe County.

Comments: Few changes. All districts had to expand a little bit, so the new NY-25 takes in a few rural areas in Lewis and Madison as well as a few Republican communities in the Rome-Oneida area so as to help NY-24. It includes fewer and different Rochester burbs from the old district.

Bottom Line: Pretty much the same. Maffei should be fine here absent a strong challenger.

NY-24 (Dark Purple)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-24: Obama 51-47

New NY-24: Obama 52-46 (+1D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-24: 93% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

New NY-24: 91% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Incumbent: Michael Arcuri (D-Utica)

Description: Containing all or part of 14 counties, it’s based around the cities of Utica, Rome, and Oneida. It includes most of Oneida and Madison Counties and the whole of Tompkins, Cortland and Chenango Counties. It also includes most of Seneca and Cayuga, small parts of northern Tioga and Broome and southern Onondaga, the southern (more populated) half of Herkimer County and the western (less populated) halves of Fulton and Montgomery Countes, the area around Geneva in Ontario County and the Town of Hector in Schuyler County.

Comments: Formerly Republican turf, it’s now a swing district. Adding all of Tompkins County, including Ithaca (NY-22 no longer needs it, as I’ll explain below) helps Democrats, and the small towns in the Finger Lakes region are less hostile to Democrats than similar towns to the north and west. NY-24 was a frustrating one to draw for me for a variety of reasons. Rome-Utica is a weak basis for a Democratic district to begin with, adding Ithaca only helps so much, and because, again, all the upstate districts had to get bigger (this one even more than some) there was really nothing available to add to it apart from Republican rural areas. So the best I could do without endangering better Democrats than Arcuri has been is to improve it by one point and hope that and incumbency are enough.

Bottom Line: A little better. Still a tough district for Democrats, even a conservative one like Arcuri. Should a Republican prevail here in 2010, it’d be a good candidate to carve up.

NY-23 (Pale Blue)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-23: 52-47 Obama

New NY-23: 53-46 Obama (+1D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-23: 94% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Native American, 1% Asian

New NY-23: 93% White, 2% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Native American, 1% Asian

Incumbent: Bill Owens (D-Plattsburgh)

Description: Contains most of what is known as the North Country. The big changes are that it stays further away from Syracuse and Rome but that it now includes most of the Saratoga Springs area as well as all of Essex County and most of the land area of Warren County. (Glens Falls is still out so that it can still be in Scott Murphy’s NY-20.)

Comments: Looks mostly the same as before except that as NY-24 and NY-25 have expanded a bit to the north and east, NY-23 has had to dip down into the Capital Region. This change has the nice side effect of making it slightly more Democrat-friendly.

Bottom Line: Bill Owens is still going to have a challenging district, but some fairly hostile turf has been replaced by some decent territory around Saratoga Springs. Nonetheless, should a Republican win here in 2010, it’d be a good candidate for carving up.

NY-21 (Dark Brown)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-21: Obama 58-40

New NY-21: Obama 57-41 (-1D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-21: 87% White, 8% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian

New NY-21: 86% White, 7% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Incumbent: Paul Tonko (D-Amsterdam)

Description: Includes most of the Albany-Troy metro area, including all of Albany, Schenectady, and Schoharie Counties and portions of Rensselaer, Saratoga, Greene, Fulton, and Montgomery.

Comments: Essentially it’s the same district. It’s a little weaker than the current district because it had to expand and only had hostile Republican turf (new portions of Greene, Fulton, and Saratoga on the periphery) available to add.

Bottom Line: Should still be a reasonably safe district for Tonko and his Democratic successors.

Hudson Valley Region

Hudson Valley Area Map

Westchester-Rockland Map

NY-22 (Light Brown)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-22: Obama 59-39

New NY-22: Obama 57-41 (-2D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-22: 83% White, 8% Black, 8% Hispanic, 2% Asian

New NY-22: 80% White, 9% Hispanic, 8% Black, 1% Asian, 2% Other

Description: Now mostly a Hudson Valley district, at least population-wise, it includes the cities of Newburgh, Poughkeepsie, and Kingston, the latter of which is incumbent Hinchey’s home base. Including all of Ulster, Sullivan, and Otsego, it also includes portions of Orange, Dutchess, and Greene, as well as most of Delaware County.

Comments: I reclassified both this district and NY-20 out of the “Upstate” category for a reason. The arm of the existing district that runs out to Binghamton and Ithaca was originally the product of a compromise whereby Hinchey got a safer district (that didn’t include much of then-mostly Republican Delaware County) while the various upstate Republicans didn’t have to worry about representing either of those Democratic cities. However,  all those aforementioned Republicans are gone now and replaced by Democrats, and Democrats’ fortunes in Ulster, Sullivan, and even Delaware County have improved to the point where the district doesn’t need to be shorn up in that fashion. As a consolation prize, NY-22 adds the very Democratic city of Poughkeepsie and while Delaware County and the new portions of Orange and Greene Counties are Republican, the new turf in Otsego County (with Cooperstown and college town Oneonta) is surprisingly Democrat-friendly.

Bottom Line: If current trends continue in the Hudson Valley, with the diversification of the periphery of the NYC metro area, this should say a safe Democratic seat even without Binghamton and Ithaca.

NY-20 (Rose Pink)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-20: Obama 51-48

New NY-20: Obama 55-43 (+4D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-20: 95% White, 2% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

New NY-20: 81% White, 8% Black, 7% Hispanic, 3% Asian

Incumbent: Scott Murphy (D-Glens Falls)

Description: A long thin strand that mostly follows the Hudson River from Lake Champlain down almost to the Tappan Zee. It avoids most of the bigger cities upstream which are in either NY-21 or NY-22. Contains parts of 10 counties, just as the current NY-20 does, but cuts out the Catskills region and instead runs further downstream into Orange, Putnam, Westchester, and Rockland Counties. (The Rockland/Orange section is connected to the rest of the district via the Bear Mountain Bridge.)

Comment: This might be the district I changed more than any other and it’s even more different than it looks on a map. It still contains most of the northern Taconic region as well as incumbent Murphy’s home town of Glens Falls. However, the current district doesn’t go below Poughkeepsie on the Hudson River whereas the majority of the new district lives in its new southern portion in Westchester, Rockland, Orange, and southern Dutchess Counties, and the racial diversity has increased dramatically. The Rockland and Westchester sections of the district are strongly Democratic, which pulls the district from a true swing district into one that leans significantly towards the Democrats. This is another district that looks kind of unwieldy. I certainly did not set out to design something that both borders Vermont and comes within a couple miles of bordering New Jersey.

Bottom Line: The good news for Scott Murphy, assuming he survives 2010, would be a district that’s significantly more Democratic than the one he has now, making a Republican challenge much harder. The bad news is that he may well have to worry more about a Democratic primary challenge from a resident of the lower portion of this district, not to mention needing to worry about the expensive NYC media market.  

NY-19 (Yellow-Green)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-19: Obama 51-48

New NY-19: Obama 58-41 (+7D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-19: 88% White, 8% Hispanic, 5% Black, 2% Asian

New NY-19: 72% White, 12% Hispanic, 10% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Other

Incumbent: John Hall (D-Dover)

Description: A north-south piece of territory that covers the eastern half of Dutchess County, the eastern-two thirds of Putnam County, and the majority of Westchester County.

Comments: A “musical chairs” situation where no upstate districts are eliminated creates a downstate pull on everything else, and that’s very much manifested here. NY-19 now stays entirely east of the Hudson, more or less following Metro North’s Harlem Line and the Taconic Parkway from the northernmost reaches of Dutchess County down to the borders of the Bronx. As one might expect, subtracting mostly Republican turf in Orange County and a mixed bag of stuff in Rockland County while adding all of White Plains and portions of New Rochelle and Mount Vernon is a huge boost to Democratic numbers. These changes would likely remove NY-19 from the list of swing districts entirely and into “Likely Democratic” if not “Safe Democratic” territory.

Bottom Line: This map should make John Hall a very happy man.

NY-18 (Bright Yellow)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-18: Obama 62-38

New NY-: Obama 68-30 (+6D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-18: 67% White, 16% Hispanic, 10% Black, 5% Asian, 1% Other

New NY-18: 50% White, 22% Hispanic, 21% Black, 4% Asian, 2% Other

Incumbent: Nita Lowey (D-Harrison)

Description: Sort of a “Long Island Sound” district, it covers a stretch of lower Westchester along the Sound and the Connecticut border (Pelham, Eastchester, part of New Rochelle, Rye City and Town, Mamaroneck, and Harrison), eastern and central portions of the Bronx (a mixture of white, black, and Hispanic neighborhoods), then over the Throgs Neck Bridge to Queens. NY-18 contains portions of the Bayside and Flushing areas and moves into the Great Neck section of Nassau County.

Comments: A lot has changed here as Rockland County is out entirely and Lowey’s home town of Harrison is in the far northern edge of the new district as instead NY-18 gets pushed downstate, into the Bronx and Queens and even onto Long Island. Note that in the 1990s, Lowey’s district actually included portions of Queens and the Bronx so this isn’t entirely new to her.  The upside for an incumbent Democrat is obvious – even though I tried to include as many Republican areas as I could (the Queens and Nassau portion together is about even between Obama and McCain) the district still moved 6 points towards Team Blue, thanks mostly to the Bronx. Note also than non-Hispanic whites are now just barely a majority of the new district.

NY-17 (Grey-Blue)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-17: Obama 72-28

New NY-17: Obama 67-32 (-5D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-17: 49% White, 32% Black, 20% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 1% Other

New NY-17: 46% White, 28% Hispanic, 19% Black, 4% Asian, 3% Other

Incumbent: Elliot Engel (D-Riverdale,Bronx)

Description: This district contains mostly northern parts of the Bronx (Wakefield, Woodlawn, Riverdale) with some portions down near Fordham University, takes in parts of the cities of Mount Vernon and Yonkers in Westchester County, and then crosses the Tappan Zee Bridge to include portions of Rockland and Orange Counties, mostly along I-287 and, appropriately enough, NY Route 17.

Comment: The biggest change here is that this new district stretches out into Orange, cutting out the more Democratic precincts in Rockland County formerly in the district and leaving in mostly the ones which voted for McCain.  Furthermore, by the 2008 Presidential vote NY-17 is now 5 points less Democratic, but that’s likely somewhat misleading as a large number of those ostensible Republican votes were in precincts that consisted largely or wholly of Hasidic or other Orthodox Jews, who strongly preferred McCain to Obama but have voted for plenty of state and local Democrats and who should have little trouble supporting Engel, one of the more prominent Friends of Israel in Congress. The remainder of Rockland is now in NY-20, where it helps boost Democratic vote totals. The new Orange County portion of NY-17 also leans toward the GOP…but the Bronx and Westchester portions are so heavily Democratic that it hardly matters.  The demographics change a little bit as NY-17 gains more Hispanic residents by cutting deeper into the Central Bronx while losing African-American residents to the downward movement of NY-18 and NY-19.It remains a minority-majority district, albeit one with no clear majority.

Bottom Line: Still safe for Democrats, especially for Engel.

New York City

New York City Map

Bronx/Manhattan

Bronx & Upper Manhattan Map

Lower Manhattan Map

NY-16 (Lime Green)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-16: Obama 95-5

New NY-16: Obama 94-6 (-1D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-16: 63% Hispanic, 36% Black, 20% White, 2% Asian, 6% Other

New NY-16: 63% Hispanic, 28% Black, 5% White, 1% Asian, 2% Other

Incumbent: Jose Serrano (D-South Bronx)

Description: Most of the southern and central Bronx, plus the far northern portion (Inwood, Washington Heights) of Manhattan. Also includes Rikers Island.

Comment: Despite being a Voting Rights Act mandate, NY-16 was a pretty easy district to draw; it’s not like one needs to look too hard for Hispanic precincts in the Bronx.  Because NY-18 got pushed into the Bronx and NY-17 got pushed further into the Bronx, my choices were either to push NY-7 out of the Bronx entirely or send NY-16 into Manhattan. Because I wanted NY-7 to absorb some Republican parts of Long Island (I’ll get there eventually, I promise), I chose the latter option. Far northern Manhattan is mostly Hispanic as well. Rikers Island is in here because while there are residents there, there are no votes (it’s a jail) and NY-7, where the island would otherwise have been, needed actual votes more.

Bottom Line: Somehow one point less Democratic, not that Serrano or anyone else will notice much, given that this remains the most Democratic district in New York and in the nation as a whole.

NY-15 (Orange)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-15: Obama 93-6

New NY-15: Obama 91-8 (-2D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-15: 48% Hispanic, 35% Black, 28% White, 3% Asian, 5% Other

New NY-15: 36% Hispanic, 29% Black, 29% White, 4% Asian, 2% Other

Incumbent: Charles Rangel (D-Harlem, Manhattan)

Description: Uptown Manhattan, including Harlem and East Harlem, as well as portions of the Upper East and Upper West Sides, plus Ward’s/Randall’s Islands.

Comment: The smallest Congressional District in America in area, now even smaller. It’s been pushed downtown some by the incursion of NY-16 into Manhattan. It’s now almost evenly split among white, black, and Hispanic voters.

Bottom Line: Less Hispanic than before, NY-16 contains a few more affluent whites than the old district did. Not sure whether this will make a primary challenge to Rangel amidst his ethical lapses more or less likely.

NY-14 (Olive)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-14: Obama 78-21

New NY-14: Obama 78-22 (unch)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-14: 73% White, 14% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 5% Black

New NY-14: 65% White, 14% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 7% Black, 3% Other

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney (D-East Side,Manhattan)

Description: Most of the East Side of Manhattan, from the 90s down to the Williamsburg Bridge, plus most of Midtown as well as Roosevelt Island. In Brooklyn it includes portions of Williamsburg, Downtown, Fort Greene, Prospect Heights, Park Slope, and Borough Park.

Comment: Since NY-12 now stays out of Manhattan completely, the Lower East Side is in here. The Brookyn parts are entirely new to this district, as Maloney’s current district instead crosses the East River into Queens. There’s none of Queens in here but there’s not much to complain about as these are, other than heavily Orthodox Borough Park, the most Manhattan-like parts of Brooklyn in terms of demographics and voting patterns; they’re here because most of these precincts (i.e. mostly white and liberal) are poor fits for VRA compliant districts.  

Bottom Line: No real changes.

NY-08  (Lavender Blue)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-08: 74-26

New NY-08: Obama 80-20 (+6D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-08: 75% White, 12% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 6% Black, 2% Other

New NY-08: 56% White, 19% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 4% Black, 3% Other

Incumbent: Jerrold Nadler (D-West Side, Manhattan)

Description:  In Manhattan, this district starts on the Upper West Side and then runs downtown to cover much of Lower Manhattan including most of Chinatown, though it gives up some of Lower Manhattan up to shore up NY-13. It crosses the Brooklyn Bridge and then runs all the way down to Bath Beach , taking in all or part of Brooklyn Heights, Carroll Gardens, Sunset Park, Bay Ridge, Dyker Heights, and Bensonhurst in between.

Comment: This is one of many districts used to cover Republican-leaning parts of South Brookyn, overwhelming the GOP voters of Borough Park, Bay Ridge, and Bensonhurst with Manhattan liberals. It probably shows up as being more Democratic due to my effort to give the district more of northwest Brooklyn (which is heavily Democratic) to make the district look less gerrymandered than before. Interestingly enough, since this district now includes most of Chinatown as well as someparts of Brooklyn with large Asian-American communities, NY-8 would become the district in the state, and probably the nation outside of the West, with the highest percentage of Asian-Americans.

Bottom Line: No real changes.

Brooklyn/Staten Island

Brooklyn Map

NY-13 (Peach Tan)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-13: McCain 51-49

New NY-13: Obama 55-45 (+6D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-13: 77% White, 11% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 7% Black

New NY-13: 64% White, 16% Hispanic, 10% Black, 7% Asian, 2% Other

Incumbent: Mike McMahon (D-Staten Island)

Description: This district includes the whole of Staten Island, then crosses the Verrazano Bridge into Brooklyn, where it becomes a thin forked line. One brach runs down along the water to Coney Island while the other branch stretches narrowly through Bay Ridge and Sunset Park up into Gowanus and Red Hook, then crosses the Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel into the southernmost part of Manhattan, including the Finanical District, Tribeca and SoHo.  

Comment: What a huge difference those 30,000 Manhattanites (mostly white, mostly highly educated, many of them gay/lesbian) make!  Specifically, they by themselves move this district 3 points toward the Democrats. Staten Island of course leans Republican and the Brooklyn portions of the old district weren’t much better, so most of Bay Ridge and Bensonhurst have been excised in favor of more favorable parts of Brooklyn, namely Coney Island at one end and Red Hook at the other. That pushes the district over the 50-50 line but the Manhattan portions make for a more solidly Democratic district.

Bottom Line: Mike McMahon should breathe a little easier.

NY-11 (Bright Green)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-11: Obama 91-9

New NY-11: Obama 81-19 (-10D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-11: 61% Black, 25% White, 12% Hispanic, 4% Asian

New NY-11: 50.05% Black, 29% White, 11% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 3% Other

Incumbent: Yvette Clark (D-Prospect Gardens, Brooklyn)

Description: Entirely in Brooklyn, mostly in the central part of the borough.

Comment: The northern portions are heavily African-American (e.g Bedford-Stuyvesant) and/or Afro-Caribbean (e.g. Crown Heights) in nature. Much of the predominantly white southern portion, including parts of Borough Park, Midwood, and Homecrest, have strong Republican leanings. It’s 10 points weaker than the old NY-11, mostly because the black vote is less concentrated and because heavily Democratic non-black precincts in Red Hook and Park Slope were replaced with Republican-voting ones further south. Due to some moving around of other districts, Brownsville and East Flatbush were mostly removed from NY-11 while Bed-Stuy and portions of the Clinton Hill/Fort Greene area were added in their place.

Bottom Line: Hardly much of a cause for concern.

NY-10 (Magenta)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-10: 63% Black, 21% White, 17% Hispanic, 3% Asian, 2% Other

New NY-10: 51% Black, 32% White, 11% Hispanic, 4% Asian, 3% Other

Demographic Data:

Old NY-10: 91-9

New NY-10: Obama 78-21 (-13D)

Incumbent: Edolphus Towns (D-East New York, Brooklyn)

Description: Mostly in Brooklyn, with a portion in Queens on the westernmost parts of the Rockaway Peninsula. Includes all or part of Flatbush, East Flatbush, East New York, Brownsville, Canarsie, Marine Park, Sheepshead Bay, Manhattan Beach, Brighton Beach, and Gravesend.

Comment: Same idea as NY-11 above. In this case, the north and east sections are heavily black (Brownsville, East New York) and constitute a majority while the mostly white sections to the south or west (Gravesend, Manhattan Beach, Brighton Beach, Rockaway Park) vote Republican. The Democratic performance dropped dramatically, but that’s good news in a case such as this because it just means fewer wasted votes.

Bottom Line: Should be no real change.

Queens

Queens Map

NY-12 (Robin’s Egg Blue)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-12: Obama 86-13

New NY-12: Obama 82-17 (-4D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-12: 48% Hispanic, 39% White, 16% Asian, 11% Black,

New NY-12: 51% Hispanic, 24% White, 12% Asian, 9% Black, 4% Other

Incumbent: Nydia Velasquez (D-Williamsburg, Brooklyn)

Description: Split between Queens and Brooklyn.

Comment: It’s a miscellaneous collection consisting primarily of predominantly Hispanic neighborhoods in Queens and Brooklyn but including most of Valasquez’ home neighborhood of Williamsburg. It’s changed a bit though as it’s much more compact than before; it no longer includes any of Manhattan and leaves the bayfront portions of Brooklyn such as Red Hook and Sunset Park behind. Instead NY-12 moves east and north and takes in parts of Queens such as Long Island City and portions of Jackson Heights, Elmhurst, and Corona as well as the Brooklyn neighborhoods of Greenpoint and Bushwick. These changes were made mostly because sending three districts via bridge from lower Manhattan to Brooklyn required getting NY-12 out of their way. (It looked better before I discovered that Joe Crowley’s home in Woodside was right in it’s path. )

Bottom Line: Obviously still a safe Democratic district for Velasquez or any other nominated Democratic candidate. There is now a Hispanic majority here.

NY-07 (Light Gray)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-07: 45% White, 36% Hispanic, 19% Black, 13% Asian, 2% Other

New NY-07: 48% White, 24% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 9% Black, 4% Other

Demographic Data:

Old NY-07: Obama 79-20

New NY-07: Obama 66-33 (-13D)

Incumbent: Joseph Crowley (D-Woodside, Queens)

Description: Geographically, mostly a long thin strand running from Astoria and Woodside in Queens out Northern Boulevard and then the North Shore out to portions of Huntington, including portions of northern Nassau and Suffolk Counties, with another branch going into southeastern and central sections of the Bronx via the Whitestone Bridge.

Comment: NY-07, being a rare district in this part of the state not presently subject to VRA constraints, figures prominently in removal of Peter King and his district from the delegation.  With the exception of a few more diverse areas, the North Shore area leans Republican from one end to the other, one reason that much of it is in the current NY-03. One key to keeping this district from falling into swing territory is that the relatively small section of the Bronx actually represents about 20% of the district’s population, and that the predominantly white precincts in that borough that would be of limited help to a Democrat (many of which actually are in the current NY-07) were placed elsewhere, leaving overwhelmingly black or Hispanic precincts who collectively gave Obama 86% of their votes. The Queens portion of the new district also leaves out some of the whiter and less Democratic parts of that borough that had been in NY-07 before. 66% leaves plenty of Democratic margin, even if the 2008 turnout numbers represent something of a ceiling – in part because Long Island figures to continue to diversify.

Bottom Line: Crowley might be the most ticked off Democrat in the delegation as he gets a mostly new set of constituents and one less friendly than he is used to. But someone has to take those Republican votes on Long Island and every other candidate for that task is limited either by already being something of a swing district or by VRA compliance requirements.

NY-06 (Teal Blue)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-06: Obama 89-11

New NY-06: Obama 72-27 (-17D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-06: 54% Black, 19% White, 17% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 4% Other

New NY-06: 50.01% Black, 36% White, 9% Hispanic, 2% Asian, 3% Other

Incumbents: Gregory Meeks (D- St. Albans, Queens); Peter King (R-Seaford)

Description: Built around a primarily black section of Eastern Queens, it has one branch that runs west to pick up parts of Brownsville and East New York in Brooklyn, taking in Broad Channel and portions of Howard Beach along the way and another that runs to the east along the south shore of Long Island’s Nassau County, including most of the Five Towns area but growing narrower until reaching the Nassau County border near Massapequa.

Comment: I’m pretty sure King’s not actually going to run here. When I was drawing this map, I didn’t know where exactly his home was; I’d have actually guessed it was in the NY-03 I drew with Carolyn McCarthy around, which is probably the district he’d choose to run in anyway. Someone else’s contest entry pointed out the precinct, I looked it up, and what do you know, his precinct’s in the (barely) black-majority NY-06.  

Even more than the two Brooklyn districts NY-10 and NY-11, this is NY-06 a classic “blacks and Republicans” district, avoiding any significant areas predominantly white precincts where Obama did well, since those voters don’t help this district comply with the VRA and are more needed elsewhere. The Nassau portion of the district is mostly strongly Republican; diverse areas in southern Nassau County, such as Freeport, where Obama performed well were put into NY-3. I’m a little scared of “blacks and Republicans” districts in some contexts (for fear that the racial turnout gap could become large enough to produce some unpleasant Election Day surprises)  but this one is a bit different in that most of the predominantly black neighborhoods in this area are middle-class and well-educated (and thus less likely to suffer from extremely low turnout) and that incumbent Meeks seems like the kind of African-American politician perfectly capable of winning over some white votes (and even Obama’s worst precincts in here were in the 30s rather than the single digits) if he needs them.  

Bottom Line:  Probably another unhappy incumbent, even if he’s still safe.

NY-09 (Sky Blue)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-09: Obama 55-44

New NY-09: Obama 68-31 (+13D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-09: 71% White, 15% Asian, 14% Hispanic, 4% Black, 2% Other

New NY-09: 40% White, 26% Hispanic, 17% Asian, 9% Black, 7% Other

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner (D-Forest Hills, Queens)

Description: Now almost entirely in Queens, it’s based, just like the current NY-09 in a group of mostly white Queens neighborhoods such as Maspeth, Middle Village, Woodhaven, Ozone Park, most of Howard Beach,  and incumbent Weiner’s own home turf in Forest Hills. It’s become a no-majority district now because it’s border areas in the east and south, particularly the small portion in Brooklyn, have many largely black and Hispanic precincts, and because the Asian-American population has been increased slightly.

Comment: Because other districts are used to cover Republican parts of southern Brooklyn, the Democratic share of the vote in this new district shoots way up. There wasn’t quite enough room to get this district out onto Long Island, so I ended up just trying to make sure the more GOP-friendly parts of Queens were in here rather than in NY-04 or NY-07 to the extent possible.

Bottom Line: Anthony Weiner wasn’t and isn’t in any real danger here. The danger is that he has known higher office aspirations, just like his predecessor Chuck Schumer, so I expect this to be an open seat sooner rather than later. A 55-44 open seat is a cause for concern, but an open seat in the new district would not be.

NY-04 (Red)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-05: Obama 63-36

New NY-04: Obama 60-39 (-3D)

Demographic Data:

Old NY-05: 56% White, 25% Asian, 24% Hispanic, 6% Black

New NY-04: 54% White, 18% Asian, 14% Hispanic, 9% Black, 5% Other

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman (D-Roslyn Heights)

Description: The new NY-04 most closely resembles the existing NY-05, split between Queens and Long Island.

Comment:

This district had the highest Asian population of any district outside of Hawaii and California, but they’ve been spread out some more in this map; those areas in Queens are less Democrat-voting than the neighborhoods that have replaced them in this NY-04; note that the black population, mostly in the Queens portion of the district, increased from 6% to 9%. The Long Island portion of the district, about 41% of it’s residents, narrowly voted for McCain, but 72% of the Queens section (a diverse set of neighborhoods such as East Flushing, Oakland Gardens, and parts of Jamaica Estates, collectively 59% of the district’s population) voted for Obama. In North Hempstead in Nassau, Ackerman has a lot of the same constituents he’s used to, including those in his Roslyn home as well as all or parts of Albertson and Westbury, though Great Neck, Port Washington, and most of Manhasset are moved as NY-07 and NY-18 now move into Nassau County. The Oyster Bay and Suffolk County portions would be entirely new to Ackerman and neither, with a few exceptions (Greenlawn and Huntington Station) are particularly friendly towards Democrats. The Oyster Bay portions are mostly in Peter King’s current NY-03. Essentially, this district’s Democratic base in Queens is used to cover some heavily Republican parts of Long Island, including parts of Garden City, and a large chunk of the town of Smithtown.  

Bottom Line: Ackerman has more territory to cover and a bunch of new constitutents, which probably won’t make him happy. But he isn’t seriously endangered by any of the changes and his successor here should be a fellow Democrat as well, especially given the long-term trends on Long Island.

Long Island

Nassau County Map

Suffolk County Map

NY-03 (Medium Purple)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-04: Obama 58-41

Old NY-03: McCain 52-47

New NY-03: Obama 56-44

Demographic Data:

Old NY-04: 69% White, 19% Black, 14% Hispanic, 5% Asian

Old NY-03 94% White, 2% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

New NY-03: 68% White, 16% Black, 10% Hispanic, 4% Asian

Incumbent: Carolyn McCarthy (D-Mineola); Peter King (R-Seaford)

Description: A roughly eliptical swath across Long Island, covering parts of the Town of Babylon in Suffolk County, interior portions of Nassau County, with a handful of precincts in the far eastern part of Queens. It’s mostly a fusion of the current NY-03 with the current NY-04.

Comment: Here’s where things really get interesting.   The eastern half of this district is as of now mostly represented by Republican Peter King while the western half is mostly represented by Democrat Carolyn McCarthy. And then there are two entirely new pieces, one in the east in the Town of Babylon and one in the west in Queens. As one might expect from me at this point, 75% of the 23,000 Queens residents of this district are African-American, as are a substantial minority of the eastern portion which includes the African-American majority village of North Amityville. The western half, full of diverse communities like Valley Stream, Uniondale, Freeport, and McCarthy’s own Mineola, predominates, as the demographic numbers clearly indicate; this looks a whole lot more like McCarthy’s district than King’s. In a race between the two, I’d expect McCarthy to be the clear favorite.

Bottom Line: For Peter King, it’s a matter of picking his poison. The current NY-03 has been placed in six different districts, only two of which are halfway plausible places for him to run; NY-07 contains only a few of his old constituents and runs all the way into the Bronx, NY-04 is mostly (population-wise) in Queens and only contains a few of his old constituents, NY-06 contains his house but is mostly in Queens and is majority African-American, and while NY-01 may be the least Democrat-leaning of all his options, that’s almost entirely unfamiliar territory further out in Suffolk County and his obnoxious screeds on TV don’t play well in the Hamptons anyway. That leaves Steve Israel’s NY-02 and Carolyn McCarthy’s NY-03. Of those NY-03 seems the plausible choice as it contains a little more of King’s current turf than NY-02 does and includes most of King’s base in Massapequa, Farmingdale, and Bethpage.  Even here he’s a clear underdog against McCarthy.

NY-02 (Dark Green)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-02: Obama 56-43

New NY-02 Obama 56-44 (unch)

Demographic Data –

Old NY-02: 78% White, 14% Hispanic, 10% Black, 3% Asian

New NY-02: 74% White, 10% Hispanic, 10% Black, 4% Asian

Incumbent: Steve Israel (D-Dix Hills)

Description: Shaped a bit like a big-headed lizard with a long tail section. Predominantly in Suffolk County, it covers most of the Town of Brookhaven and southern portions of Smithtown, with a tail through interior portions of western Suffolk (small portions towns of Babylon and Islip and southern portions of Huntington and stretching into a strand running through the middle of eastern portions of Nassau County, as far west as Hempstead Village.

Comments: This district remains about exactly as Democratic-leaning as it was before, but has changed considerably. It loses its North Shore territory but picks up a different part of the North Shore, around Port Jefferson. Only its central portion, around Israel’s own Dix Hills, and Republican-leaning southeast portion in the Town of Islip remain largely intact. The Nassau County portion, expanded considerably from the old NY-02, picks up some of Peter King’s old base around Levittown and Hicksville but also includes heavily Democratic Hempstead Village, which makes up for not having such Democratic strongholds as Brentwood and Central Islip anymore. It probably has more of Peter King’s old constituents than any district save NY-03. This district had to be altered considerably to help take out Peter King and help lock down what would otherwise be a shaky NY-01.

Bottom Line: Israel’s probably not a happy camper as the power of incumbency goes down dramaticallly with brand new constituents, even if the generic Democratic advantage remains the same as it does here. It’s still hard to imagine Peter King winning here as he hasn’t represented many of these people and would have to move inland considerably to belong to this district.  

NY-01 (Medium Blue)

Presidential Data –

Old NY-01: Obama 52-44

New NY-01: Obama 55-43 (+3D)

Demographic Data –

Old NY-01: 89% White, 8% Hispanic, 4% Black, 2% Asian

New NY-01: 76% White, 14% Hispanic, 7% Black, 2% Asian, 2% Other

Incumbent: Tim Bishop (D-Southhampton)

Description: Based in eastern Suffolk County, including both the North and South forks and all the Hamptons, and then runs along the South Shore to Bay Shore then over Robert Moses Causeway to Fire Island and along Ocean Parkway through beach barrier islands to Point Lookout, Long Beach, and Atlantic Beach in Nassau County.  The tail becomes wider at one point to include Brentwood and Central Islip.

Comments: A marginal Democratic district shorn up somewhat by the shedding of mostly (apart from Port Jefferson) unfriendly portions of the Towns of Brookhaven and Smithtown and their replacement with the barrier islands in Nassau County and heavily Democratic Central Islip and Brentwood (mostly responsible for the significant jump in the Hispanic population) which more than make up for the Republican-leaning South Shore area (some of which is now represented by Peter King)that  this new map includes. It’s admittedly bit of a gerrymander as this new NY-01 borders (by water) Queens despite also including Shelter Island.  

Bottom Line: This should help keep this seat in Democratic hands.  

My entry in the redistricting contest. I manage to create one new Democratic district and eliminate both Republicans, while making most of the vulnerable Democrats safer.  Enjoy.

1. (Bishop) East Suffolk same as the current district.

Pop. 706,721. 84%W, 4% Bl,  2% Hisp   Obama 52%, McCain 48%

Current District:  Obama 52; McCain 48 (same breakdown)

Virtually identical to the existing district; in fact, the only one where I had to remove blocs due to expanded population.

2. (Israel) West Suffolk.

Pop 706,650  72%W, 10%Bl, 14% Hisp   Obama 55%, McCain 45%

Current District:  Obama 56; McCain 43 (down 1 point)

Adds some South Suffolk blocs; removes the Nassau blocs. More compact and contiguous than the old 2nd, and safe for Israel.  I had wanted to push this and the 1st deeper into the current 3rd, but it could not be comfortably done.

3. ( Lowey, King. Advantage Lowey). East edge of Nassau;  Oyster Bay and North Shore; Great Neck; Throgs Neck; Long Island Sound; Pelham; New Rochelle; Larchmont; Rye; Harrison; White Plains.

Pop 702,996 79% W, 4%Bl, 11% Hisp Obama 54%, McCain 45%

Current District: None

Here’s where I start to get creative. If  we must lose one district, I want it to be the one held by “King Peter”in the current 3rd.  However, way out on Long Island like that, contiguous to only a few districts, none of which can afford more Republicans, that’s hard to do.  Plus, the upstate districts lost more population than Long Island, and if we started on the other end of the state and worked east, the districts would start to look really unfamiliar by the time we got to Westchester (see what I had to do with Hinchey’s district, for example. That one made it all the way to Westchester!)  

The solution is to bring in Nita Lowey from Westchester across the Sound.  Lowey is a suburban representative who ought to be a good fit for the Long Island suburbs.  The new 3rd is about 1/3 Lowey’s old district, 1/3 of the old 3rd (the north shore is the most liberal part of King’s existing district), and 1/3 other parts of the North Shore, the Westchester shore, and the Bronx shore taken from the Ackerman and Crowley districts, all of which should be more friendly to Lowey than to King.  Back in the 1980s, when Long Island was considered a conservative Republican stronghold, a solid North Shore district was comfortably occupied by Democrat Robert Mrazek. Also, this model of the 3rd does go as far west as the Throgs Neck Bridge–though only the north side of it.

4. (McCarthy) South Nassau, including Mineola, Freeport, Levittown, most of the south shore.

Pop 699,475  67% W, 15%Bl, 12% Hisp Obama 56%, McCain 43%

Current District:  Obama 58; McCain 41  (down 2 points, still safe)

This one is measured to be about 2/3 within the existing 4th and 1/3 in the 3rd. It’s not in “King Peter”s residential zone, but it does have most of his base. It lops off part of the top of the old 4th to give the Weiner and Ackerman districts room to snake in.   Slightly less Democratic, but still safe for McCarthy.

5. (Ackerman) North Queens: Elmhurst, Murray Hill, Littleneck and east into Nassau, then Southward into the current 3rd to Hicksville.

Pop 702,921 49% W, 5%Bl, 22% Asian, 22% Hisp Obama 59%, McCain 40%

Current District:  Obama 63; McCain 36 (down 4 points. As it should be; 63 is overkill)

A little more snakelike and gerrymandered than the current 5th, but still recognizably and safely Ackerman’s.

6.  (Meeks) Jamaica.

Pop 701,408  15% W, 51%Bl, 17% Hisp Obama 88%, McCain 12%

Current District:  Obama 89; McCain 11 (down 1 point)

It would have been much easier to screw “King Peter” and protect McCarthy and Weiner if I had been allowed to tinker with this district. But it was VRA-protected and surrounded by lily-white communities, and so I left it pretty much as is. You’ll notice I did the same with all the other majority-minority districts, all of which look pretty much the same as the old versions. You’ll also notice these districts are the ones most likely to skirt the lower edge of the minimum population requirements. I didn’t want to have to stuff more Democrats into districts that regularly give 70%+ Democratic victories.  Good thing disproportionate population increases reduced the need to expand them.

7. (Crowley) East Bronx, LaGuardia airport, Woodside, and east into Queens, short of Nassau

Pop 694,523  28% W, 16%Bl, 37% Hisp Obama 78%, McCain 21%

Current District:  Obama 79; McCain 20 (down 1 point)

Messy, but safely Democratic.

8. (Nadler) West side of Manhattan  (Upper West, Chelsea, Greenwich, Financial District) plus west Staten Island, made contiguous by the unbroken Jersey shore and by the Staten Island Ferry route.

Pop 694,080  72% W,  7 %Bl, 12% Hisp Obama 72%, McCain 27%

Current District:  Obama 74; McCain 26 (down 2 points that are needed elsewhere)

I’ve wanted for a long time to dilute GOP influence in Staten Island by dividing it. Nadler’s west side district is blue enough to absorb it easily, and it’s no more awkward than the existing district that goes into Brooklyn.

9. (Weiner) Centered in Weiner’s native Forest Hills; snakes southwest to Lindenwood, Georgetown, Gravesend, Breezy Point; and east to Utopia, Oakland Gardens, Glen Oaks and Central Nassau.

Pop 702,016  67% W,  3%Bl, 14% Hisp Obama 51%, McCain 49%

Current District:  Obama 55; McCain 44 (down 4 points)

Of all districts in this entry, this one satisfies me the least. It takes the biggest and most dangerous hit. Surrounded by the VRA-protected 6th, 10th, and 12th  , that gave Obama 70% or better, I had to struggle to get Weiner to a 51% district. There were some South Brooklyn districts that went for McCAIN  90%, and most of them went into the new 9th, the cost of keeping four majority-minority districts in the area and making the 13th safer.  It’s a bummer.  The possible saving grace is that the conservatives here are divided between orthodox Jews and racist Archie Bunker prototypes, and it’s hard to imagine both groups voting for a single candidate locally.  Also, Weiner is popular enough to survive and thrive here; still,  there are few excuses for forcing a district this marginal into New York City. If other entries make both this and the 13th  more blue-leaning, I’ll be impressed.

10.  (Towns) East NY; Bedford-Stuyvesant. Mostly unchanged from the existing Towns district.

Pop 693,765  18% W, 58%Bl, 17% Hisp Obama 90%, McCain 10%

Current District:  Obama 91; McCain 9 (down 1 point)

11. (Clarke) Crown Heights, Flatbush. Mostly unchanged from the existing Clarke district.

Pop 694,130  21% W, 60%Bl, 12% Hisp Obama 91%, McCain 9%

Current District:  Obama 91; McCain 9  (unchanged)

12. (Velasquez) Lower east side; Williamsburg; Bushwick, Park Slope; West coast of Brooklyn. Virtually no different from the old 12th. In fact, I had a hard time moving even one bloc without going beneath the 46% Hispanic threshold.

Pop 705,533  24% W, 9%Bl, 17% Asian, 47% Hisp Obama 86%, McCain 14%

Current District:  Obama 86; McCain 13 (almost unchanged)

13.  (McMahon) East Staten Island; Bensonhurst; Coney Island;  Sunset Park; Sheepshead Bay.

Pop 706,767  65% W, 6%Bl,  14% Asian, 12% Hisp Obama 52%, McCain 47%

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 51 (UP three badly needed points, converting a McCain district to Obama)

I thought I was going to easily make the 13th more Democratic by dividing Staten Island with the 8th. I learned that a lot of the GOP leanings of the 13th came from the Brooklyn part of the district and that a lot of the neighboring parts of the old 8th and 9th had been put there to safely disperse Republicans in safe Dem districts. I needed to reach as far as I did from South Brooklyn and fill the population to the limit to get there, but the proposed 13th now has a Democratic lean.

I was almost sorry to have a Staten Island Democrat to protect. I had started out watning to bisect SI into the 8th and 14th.

14. (Maloney) East Manhattan from Stuyvesant Town to Yorkville; Roosevelt Island; Astoria.  Not much different from the existing 14th.

Pop 698,199 65% W, 6%Bl, 11% Asian, 15% Hisp Obama 78%, McCain 21%

Current District:  Obama 78; McCain 21 (unchanged)

15. (Rangel). Upper Manhattan. Harlen, Spanish Harlem, Wash. Hts, Southern edge of the Bronx at Port Morris.  Virtually no different from the old 15th.

Pop 694,620  16% W, 30%Bl, 49% Hisp Obama 93%, McCain 6%

Current District:  Obama 93; McCain 6 (unchanged)

16. (Serrano)  South Bronx. Almost unchanged from the old 16th, and very compact.

Pop 695,862  3% W, 31%Bl, 63% Hisp Obama 95%, McCain 5%

Current District:  Obama 95; McCain 5 (unchanged. I wonder who here voted for McCain?)

17. (Engel) North Bronx; Yonkers; Mt. Vernon; west edge of Westchester to Tarrytown; south Rockland County.

Pop 695,193  42% W, 29%Bl, 21% Hisp Obama 71%, McCain 28%

Current District:  Obama 72; McCain 28 (almost unchanged)

A little bluer due to packing in more Democrats from southern Westchester. North border follows the existing 17th exactly.

18. (Massa)  Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Allagheny, Steuben, Chemung, Tioga, Broome, Schuyler, southwest part of Ontario.

Pop 706,906  93% W, 2%Bl, 2% Hisp Obama 48%, McCain 51%

Current District:  Obama 48; McCain 51 (unchanged)

I called the Southern Tier district the 18th for continuity’s sake. It might as well be called the 28th and go at the end; however, as the 18th, the only incumbent Democrats whose district numbers are changed are Lowey, Massa and Slaughter.

This is the only district in this redistricting plan that went for McCain (48-51); with the addition of Jamestown on the west and Binghamton on the east, it ought to be a little less red than before.  Without the Monroe County suburbs, though, it’s a wash. Well, at least I did not make it WORSE, even while I completely eliminated the GOP-heavy district next door.

19. (Hall) Southeast  Dutchess, Putnam, East Westchester (North Salem, Chappaqua, Brewster).  

Pop 700,295  76% W, 8%Bl, 11% Hisp Obama 55%, McCain 44%

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48 (UP 4 needed points)

More compact and Democratic than the old 22nd, this one should make the potentially vulnerable Hall safe. I was tempted to make the district more Westchester-centric, but Hall resides in the part of Dutchess that had to be included.

20. (Murphy) Upper Dutchess, Columbia Rensselaer, Warren, Washington, Saratoga, Essex

Pop 695,099  91% W, 4%Bl, 2% Hisp Obama 54%, McCain 45%

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48  (UP 3 needed points)

This was the easiest to make Dem friendly of all the marginal newly Dem districts upstate.  Poughkeepsie and the Albany suburbs of Rensselaer had been artificially removed to make the district Republican. Put them back, and the natural things to lop off are the Catskill tail at the bottom of the old 20th. The district is more compact and contiguous, and more Democratic. What could be better?

21. (Tonko)  Montgomery, Albany, Schoharie,Greene, Delaware, Sullivan, parts of Ulster, Orange and Herkimer.  

Pop 701,290  84% W, 7%Bl, 6% Hisp Obama 56%, McCain 42%

Current District:  Obama 58; McCain 40 (down 2 unneeded points)

The price of shoring up the 20th and 23rd was to make the Tonko district slightly   less safe by adding in a lot of conservative rural territory. But it’s still handily blue.

22.    (Hinchey)  Scarsdale, Peekskill, parts of Rockland, Orange and Ulster.

Pop 702,909  77% W, 7%Bl, 11% Hisp Obama 57%, McCain 42%

Current District:  Obama 59; McCain 39 (down 2 unneeded points)

This one changed a lot. This Borscht Belt district traditionally had Binghamton and Ithaca on the west and stretched to Poughkeepsie with as little in between as they could get away with. I put Binghamton and Ithaca in other districts that needed more Democrats, and compensated by extending a tail of the 22nd deep into Westchester, between the 17th and the 19th. The extent to north Ulster is due to Hinchey’s home base, near Woodstock.

23.    (Owens) Clinton, Franklin, Essex, Schenectady, Fulton, Hamilton, St Lawrence, Lewis, Jefferson, most of Oswego, West part of Saratoga.

Pop 707,028 92% W, 3%Bl,  2% Hisp Obama 52%, McCain 46%

Current District:  Obama 52; McCain 47 (up 1/2)

Made just a little more Dem friendly. The primary change was the addition of Schenectady and the removal of some conservative western land.

24. (Arcuri) Central New York State: Oneida, Cortland, Madison, Otsego, Chenango, Tompkins, Schuyler, Yates, North-central part of Ontario, southwest part of Herkimer

Pop 699,841  92% W, 3%Bl,  2% Hisp Obama 51%, McCain 47%

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48 (up 1 point, just like the 23rd.)

This district is made marginally safer for Arcuri, mainly due to the addition of Ithaca.

25. (Maffei)  Onondanga (Syracuse),  Cayuga, Seneca, Eastern part of Wayne and Ontario

Pop 701,716  87% W, 7%Bl,  2% Hisp Obama 57%, McCain 41%

Current District:  Obama 56; McCain 43 (up 2 points)

Slightly more safe for Maffei. The main change was taking the district away from Monroe County and adding some rural blocs. you’d think that would make it more Republican, but no.

26. (Slaughter) Rochester and suburbs, plus Livingston County and West edge of Wayne.

Pop 703,921 78% W, 13%Bl,  5% Hisp Obama 58%, McCain 40%

Current District:  Obama 69; McCain 30 (looks like a big dip, until you consider that we’re eliminating the pro-GOP 26th and making two good Dem districts)

Slaughter represented an area like this in the 1990s, and shouldn’t have any trouble keeping this one.  The current 28th was one of the big mistakes of the 2001 redistricting, protecting a Republican incumbent at the expense of a safe blue district. See District 28, below, for more. With Lee an insignificant minority party Freshman and the redistricting controlled by Democrats, hopefully they won’t make that mistake again.  Slaughter still has a 58% Dem district to work in here.

27. (Higgins, Lee. Strong advantage to Higgins) Entirely within Erie County; includes all of Erie except for the Northwestern part, most of which is in the current 28th.  Eliminates Chautauqua County.

Pop 695,556  83% W, 11%Bl,  3% Hisp Obama 56%, McCain 43%

Current District:  Obama 54; McCain 44  (up 2 points)

Lee could challenge Higgins here or try to move to the new 28th. Either way, he’d have a hard time holding on. This district is more partisanly Dem than the one Higgins now wins in.

28. (no incumbent) Northwest Erie/Tonawanda; all of Niagra, Genesee, Wyoming counties; NW Monroe.

Pop 694,502  87% W, 8%Bl,  2% Hisp Obama 52%, McCain 47%

Current District:  Obama 69; McCain 30  (I’m counting the current 28th as “current” in both this district and Slaughter’s proposed 26th, for lack of an alternative. This district has most of the territory; the proposed 26th has the incumbent; and the goal was the total breakup of the existing 26th, which has no counterpart in this proposal).

This district attempts to eliminate the other GOP-held district in NY and replace it with one approximating the district held by John LaFalce through the 1990s. The new 26th, 27th and 28th try to recreate what the three districts would look like if in 2001 they had eliminated the district now held by Lee instead of the LaFalce district.

OVERALL RESULT: All 28 districts are swing or better, all definitely winnable by Democrats, and all start out with an incumbent Democrat. Big winners include McMahon, Murphy, Maffei, and the Democrat who runs in the new 28th.  Owens and Arcuri are marginally better, and Massa is no worse off. Weiner is the only Democrat who is worse off enough to notice, and even he is still slightly blue leaning, in the middle of the city, where he’ll have a LOT of support. Both incumbent Republicans, meanwhile,  are…yes, I think “toast” is the operative word.

What do you think?

I decided to do a partisan gerrymander for the contest which pretty much locks in 26 Democrats and 2 Republicans for the state.  All 26 Democratic seats were won by Obama with at least 58% of the vote, and McCain got at most 41%.  This is, in effect, making each Democratic district at least a “+10 D” seat since Obama beats McCain by at least a 17 point margin for each of the 26 seats, while Obama beat McCain nationally by about 7 points, and essentially assures that a Democrat will represent each of the 26 seats in Congress.

The remaining two seats are ceded to the GOP.  One is NY-26 in western New York, and the other is a reconfigured NY-24 in the eastern part of upstate.  It was sad to sacrifice Michael Arcuri in this manner, but it makes all the neighboring seats safe and then some, by spreading more Democrats outward to other seats.  It’s nothing personal against Arcuri; it was just easiest to do it this way for me geographically, and since Arcuri had a hard time at reelection in 2008, he may not be that safe in future elections anyhow.

Despite the highly gerrymandered lines, each district strives to maintain at least a decent portion of the territory currently in the district (including, ofcourse, each incumbent’s home).  The notable exceptions are Arcuri’s district (discussed under NY-24 below) and Peter King’s district on Long Island, which is obliterated.  About 26% of King’s district becomes part of NY-2; about 26% becomes part of NY-4; 8% goes to NY-5, and 5% to NY-18.  (The Democratic percentage in NY-2 and NY-4, nevertheless, goes UP to 60% Obama in each district, while remaining above the 60% level in both NY-5 and NY-18).

The largest part of the current NY-3, about 35% (including King’s home in Seaford/Oyster Bay) goes to NY-6, but King would have no chance there, as the district is 50%+ African-American and voted 71% for Obama.  Thus, King’s district is geographically torn into pieces and destroyed.

In the meantime, Eric Massa’s NY-29 in upstate is renamed NY-3 (thanks to MattTX2 for the inspiration from his contest entry !  as well as the inspiration for intertwining upstate districts  in the eastern part of the state with areas in metro NYC.  Btw, as far as I’m concerned, I’m OK if others take parts of my plan to use in their remaps.  I mean, I like the competition of the contest, but one goal for us all is to draw the best map possible for New York and show just what can be done.)

Several technical notes:  

BIG NOTE TO CONTEST JUDGE:  please note that in the drf.xml file I sent you (and reflected on the maps here) I have switched districts 5 and 6 because of the better color differentiation (yellow/green) from neighboring districts on the maps.  So, what’s tagged as “District 5” in the program is really District 6 … and vice versa.

I decided to have an even stricter population difference than the contest calls for; all my districts vary by no more than 2,000 persons from the ideal population; the contest rules accept up to around 7,000.  However, I have 1,760 persons unaccounted for in my plan.  Yes, I know to use the “next unassigned” button, but the program just can’t seem to find the missing geographical bits (I was successful at finding a bunch of missing precincts through “unassigned”, but with the last 1,760 persons, it just points to areas already designated for a specific district).  Anyhow, the missing area(s) voted 84% for Obama, so perhaps one of my districts could be even more Democratic than what’s in this plan ? oh well !)

Here’s my plan:

MAPS:

District 1:

Incumbent: Timothy Bishop

Current District:  Obama 52; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 59; McCain 41

Population: 701,005

Demographics: white 70; black 11; native am. 0; asian 2;  hispanic 15; other 2

Encompasses the eastern half of Long Island.  Entire district is confined to Suffolk Co., mostly the eastern portion but with some very Democratic areas in western Suffolk added (parts of Islip and Babylon) to bring up the Democratic percentage.

District 2:  

Incumbent: Steve Israel

Current District:  Obama 56; McCain 43

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 40

Population: 701,072

Demographics: white 67; black 15; native am. 0; asian 3; Hispanic 12; other 2

The new district is centered on western Suffolk Co. and eastern Nassau Co., including most of Huntington, and parts of Babylon, Islip, Oyster Bay and Hempstead.  The Democratic percentage goes up with the addition of very Democratic areas in Hempstead.

District 3 (Old 29):

Incumbent: Eric Massa

Current District:  Obama 48; McCain 51

Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 41

Population: 700,442

Demographics: white 87; black 8; native am. 0; asian 2; hispanic 2; other 1

The current NY-29 is renamed NY-3.  The new district encompasses parts of Buffalo and Erie Co., then stretches south and east along the Pennsylvania border to include Massa’s home in Corning, and then goes northeast to include the Ithaca area.  Adding Ithaca and parts of Buffalo makes the district a lot more Democratic, and I think including Ithaca is a nice complement for the progressive Massa.

District 4:  

Incumbent: Carolyn McCarthy

Current District:  Obama 58; McCain 41

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 40

Population: 701,554

Demographics: white 58; black 11; native am. 0; asian 11; hispanic 15; other 6

The district retains much of the current territory in Nassau, including McCarthy’s home in the Mineola part of North Hempstead, but the borders are made more gerrymandered in order to maintain the current Democratic advantage.  In order to make the district overall even more Democratic than the current version, part of the district is extended into Queens.

District 5:  

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman

Current District:  Obama 63; McCain 36

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 37

Population: 698,427

Demographics: white 43; black 6; native am. 0; asian 22; hispanic 27; other 2

The new district is quite similar to the current one, including parts of Queens and northern Nassau Co. (North Hempstead).  The district is extended eastward a bit, further into northern Nassau (northern part of Oyster Bay), but loses some southern areas in Queens and Nassau.  The partisan breakdown remains very much the same.

District 6:

Incumbent: Gregory Meeks

Current District:  Obama 89; McCain 11

Proposed District:  Obama 71; McCain 29

Population: 701,198

Demographics: white 38; black 50+; native am. 0; asian 1; hispanic 7; other 3

The new NY-6 contains much of the territory of the current NY-6 (Jamaica, St. Albans, etc.), but is reconfigured in a manner to maximize the obliteration of Peter King’s district.  Basically, the most Democratic parts of NY-6 are combined with the most Republican parts of NY-3 (including King’s home base).

Despite the new unorthodox appearance with the district hugging the water in many areas, a person can actually walk from one part of the district to any other part via land or bridges.  You start out in the Queens heart of the district; can walk west into the Brooklyn extension or take the Cross Bay Blvd. south over Jamaica Bay to the Rockaway area (Meeks home is in Far Rockaway); then go east along the Atlantic shore, hop over another bridge to Long Beach (the district is very narrow here, btw, only one precinct deep hugging the ocean); from there you can hop over several more bridges and islands to Jones Beach Island.  Then, you can go in either of two directions.  1.) Go further east towards Oak Beach, and can then go over the Robert Moses Causeway either south to Fire Island or north to the Long Island mainland around West Islip where part of the district continues along the shore back towards Amityville, or 2.) go north from Jones Beach Island across Wantagh State Parkway to the mainland and Seaford/Oyster Bay — what today is the heart of NY-3 and Peter King’s base in Nassau.

District 7:  

Incumbent: Joseph Crowley

Current District:  Obama 79; McCain 20

Proposed District:  Obama 73; McCain 27

Population: 699,421

Demographics: white 51; black 10; native am. 0; asian 9; hispanic 26; other 4

Contains parts of Queens (Astoria, part of Woodside), Brooklyn (Greenpoint, part of Williamsburg) and parts of the Bronx and Manhattan.  All areas are connected by land or bridges – specifically, the series of highways and bridges on Randalls Island connects the Bronx, Manhattan and Queens parts of the district which are across water from each other.  The Democratic percentage goes down somewhat, but the district remains very safely Democratic.

District 8:  

Incumbent: Jerrold Nadler

Current District:  Obama 74; McCain 26

Proposed District:  Obama 73; McCain 26

Population: 700,314

Demographics: white 59; black 6; native am. 0; asian 17; hispanic 14; other 4

The new district contains territory same as or similar to the current district – a combination of very progressive areas in Manhattan (Nadler’s home base on the Upper West Side, Chelsea, Tribeca) and relatively more conservative  parts of Brooklyn (areas like Bensonhurst and Bay Ridge).  The Brooklyn Bridge connects the Manhattan and Brooklyn parts of the district.  The partisan breakdown does not change much.

District 9:  

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner

Current District:  Obama 55; McCain 44

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 40

Population: 698,687

Demographics: white 55; black 10; native am. 0; asian 15; hispanic 16; other 5

The new NY-9 contains parts of Queens (including Weiner’s home in Forest Hills), Brooklyn, and Nassau Co.  The Democratic percentage goes up, as the district no longer includes most of the Orthodox Jewish conservative parts of Brooklyn.

District 10:  

Incumbent: Edolphus Towns

Current District:  Obama 91; McCain 9

Proposed District:  Obama 80; McCain 19

Population: 700,702

Demographics: white 32; black 50+; native am. 0; asian 4; hispanic 11; other 3

The new Brooklyn-based district is largely similar to the current one, and includes areas like Bedford-Suyvesant, parts of Canarsie and East New York. The Democratic percentage goes down as the new district expands to include more conservative parts of Brooklyn (including Orthodox Jewish areas), and into more GOP-friendly territory on the Rockaway peninsula in Queens.

District 11:  

Incumbent: Yvette Clarke

Current District:  Obama 91; McCain 9

Proposed District:  Obama 76; McCain 24

Population: 701,845

Demographics: white 33; black 50+; native am. 0; asian 4; hispanic 9; other 3

Similar situation to NY-10 above; Brooklyn-based district; newly added Orthodox Jewish areas make the Democratic percentage go down, but at 76% Obama, it’s a very safe Democratic seat.  The new district includes African-American majority areas east of Prospect Park, the eastern part of Flatbush and Brownsville, then extends to the Orthodox areas around Ocean Parkway and Borough Park, and goes south all the way south to Brighton Beach.

District 12:  

Incumbent: Nydia Velázquez

Current District:  Obama 86; McCain 13

Proposed District:  Obama 85; McCain 15

Population: 698,381

Demographics: white 20; black 12; native am. 0; asian 14; hispanic 50+; other 4

The new district is concentrated along the Brooklyn-Queens border.  It expands north further into Queens, and also goes across Manhattan Bridge from Brooklyn to include part of the Lower East Side of Manhattan. The Hispanic percentage increases from the current 48% to 50%+.

District 13:

Incumbent: Michael McMahon

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 51

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 39

Population: 699,033

Demographics: white 63; black 9; native am. 0; asian 6; hispanic 20; other 2

The new NY-13 includes all of Staten Island.  It then goes over the Verrazano Bridge to include some of the most Democratic (though mostly non-minority) areas in Brooklyn including parts of Park Slope, Brooklyn Heights and Sunset Park.  No inclusion of any part of Manhattan was necessary to increase the Democratic percentage significantly (again, thanks to MattTX22 for the inspiration !).

District 14:  

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney

Current District:  Obama 78; McCain 21

Proposed District:  Obama 81; McCain 18

Population: 701,165

Demographics: white 70; black 4; native am. 0; asian 15; hispanic 9; other 2

The new district is now confined entirely to Manhattan, as the Queens areas are taken out.  The district includes areas like the Upper East Side, Midtown and the East Village.  It becomes marginally even more Democratic than the current progressive stronghold.

District 15:  

Incumbent: Charles Rangel

Current District:  Obama 93; McCain 6

Proposed District:  Obama 79; McCain 20

Population: 699,529

Demographics: white 29; black 26; native am. 0; asian 3; hispanic 40; other 2

The new district includes Harlem and other areas in northern Manhattan.  It then follows Broadway out into the Bronx, and then Highway 87 up through Yonkers, and into Rockland Co.  The district remains minority-majority (71%) though, as with the current district, no racial/ethnic group has a clear majority by itself.

District 16:  

Incumbent: José Serrano

Current District:  Obama 95; McCain 5

Proposed District:  Obama 93; McCain 7

Population: 700,289

Demographics: white 5; black 30; native am. 0; asian 2; hispanic 60; other 2

Remains similar to the current district, including much of the South Bronx and central parts of the Bronx around the zoo.  The Hispanic percentage remains at the 60% level required by the contest rules.

District 17:

Incumbent: Eliot Engel

Current District:  Obama 72; McCain 28

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 36

Population: 699,291

Demographics: white 65; black 10; native am. 0; asian 3; hispanic 20; other 2

The new district includes much of the same territory in the Bronx (including Engel’s home in Riverdale), and Westchester and Rockland Counties, but also expands north into more conservative areas upstate (parts of Orange, Sullivan, Delaware and Broome Counties) as well as south into more progressive areas on the west side of Manhattan.  In effect, the new district forms most of New York’s border with New Jersey.  The district becomes somewhat less Democratic, but is still very safe.

District 18:  

Incumbent: Nita Lowey

Current District:  Obama 62; McCain 38

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 39

Population: 700,775

Demographics: white 62; black 20; native am. 0; asian 3; hispanic 13; other 2

NY-18 remains very similar in partisan preference to the current district, but the borders change rather dramatically.  Many parts of Westchester are still there (including Lowey’s home in Harrison, Rye and parts of New Rochelle), but the new district also includes a part of the northern Bronx and jumps across Long Island Sound to encompass northern parts of Long Island – most of Glen Cove, and areas east along the shore into Suffolk Co. (Smithtown and part of Brookhaven).  I figured that Lowey might be OK with such a district, since back in the 1990’s she represented a district that also combined rather disparate areas (parts of Westchester combined with parts of the Bronx and Queens).  Sorry, there’s no existing bridge to connect the two major parts of the new district (Westchester and Long Island) but there is a proposal to have a bridge or tunnel built (from Rye to Glen Cove and/or Oyster Bay) ! — http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L…

District 19:  

Incumbent: John Hall

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 40

Population: 701,088

Demographics: white 60; black 11; native am.0; asian 4; hispanic 23; other 2

The new NY-19 becomes more Democratic as it’s extended southward towards NYC.  The district runs from Hall’s home in Dover in the very northern part of the district, through Dutchess, Putnam and Westchester Counties (including parts of White Plains and New Rochelle) and then into a part of the northern Bronx.  Inevitably the Democratic percentage goes up to levels where just about any Democrat should be safe.

District 20:  

Incumbent: Scott Murphy

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 59; McCain 40

Population: 698,825

Demographics: white 75; black 13; native am. 0; asian 3; hispanic 7; other 2

In a fashion very similar to NY-19 described above, the NY-20 starts near Murphy’s home in Glens Falls, then follows the Hudson Valley south towards NYC, stopping just short of actually entering the city, but still including very Democratic Mount Vernon, just over the NYC line in Westchester.

District 21:  

Incumbent: Paul Tonko

Current District:  Obama 58; McCain 40

Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 41

Population: 701,643

Demographics: white 81; black 7; native am. 0; asian 2; hispanic 8; other 2

The new district continues to include a good part of the Albany area, including Tonko’s home in Amsterdam, as well as all of Schenectady and parts of Albany.  It then follows the Hudson Valley south to Peekskill, ending in Westchester and Rockland Counties.  The partisan breakdown remains pretty much the same as the current district.

District 22:  

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey

Current District:  Obama 59; McCain 39

Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 41

Population: 700,768

Demographics: white 81; black 8; native am. 0; asian 2; hispanic 7; other 2

The new NY-22 is similar in many ways to the current district.  It includes areas from Binghamton and Broome Co. to Hinchey’s home area in Ulster Co. around Hurley and Kingston.  Also included are all of Chemung and Tioga Counties and parts of Chenago, Otsego, Delaware, Sullivan and Orange Counties, as well as Poughkeepsie and Beacon in Dutchess Co.  The Democratic percentage here remains very similar to the current district.

District 23:  

Incumbent: Bill Owens

Current District:  Obama 52; McCain 47

Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 41

Population: 700,802

Demographics: white 91; black 4; native am. 0; asian 1; hispanic 2; other 1

The new district combines the more Democratic parts of the current NY-23 (St. Lawrence, Franklin, Clinton and most of Essex Co.) with Democratic territory further south around Saratoga Springs and including most of Albany.  Now, either Doug Hoffman or Jim Tedisco could try to run against Owens, but either would have a hard time, as the Democratic percentage goes up significantly.

District 24:  

Incumbent: Michael Arcuri

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 44; McCain 54

Population: 700,042

Demographics: white 94; black 2; native am. 0; asian 1; hispanic 2; other 1

The new district includes a large swath of territory in the eastern part of upstate New York, including all or parts of 19 counties.  Arcuri had a close call during his 2008 re-election bid, so it’s likely he would lose here.  The new NY-24 actually includes much of Arcuri’s current territory (except, notably his home in Utica, which goes into the new NY-25 to make that district more Democratic), but the new partisan breakdown would be too much to handle.  However, not all hope is lost.  Perhaps Doug Hoffman, who lives just outside the borders of the new NY-24, can run here instead and we can have a repeat of NY-23 from this past November !  Most of DeDe Scozzafava’s legislative district is also included here, as is most of the district of State Senator Darrell Aubertine, who perhaps might be the only Democrat who could launch a possibly successful campaign here.

District 25:  

Incumbent: Daniel Maffei

Current District:  Obama 56; McCain 43

Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 41

Population: 700,401

Demographics: white 86; black 7; native am. 1; asian 2; hispanic 3; other 2

NY-25 continues to include all of Syracuse and Onondaga Co.  Also included under the new lines is most of Cayuga, Seneca, and Madison Counties, Geneva in Ontario Co., and

Utica in Oneida Co.  The Democratic percentage goes up a bit.  Even though Arcuri’s home in Utica is included here, as well as the counties west of Onondaga which are also currently in NY-24, most of the territory comes out of Maffei’s current NY-25, and the new district is designed with Maffei in mind.

District 26:  

Incumbents: Christopher Lee

Current District:  Obama 46; McCain 52

Proposed District:  Obama 41; McCain 57

Population: 698,894

Demographics: white 95; black 2; native am. 0; asian 1; hispanic 2; other 1

This new district combines much of Lee’s base in Erie Co. with other hyper-Republican areas in the western part of upstate New York – including all or parts of 16 different counties.  The Republican percentage goes up significantly, as the vast majority of GOP precincts in this part of the state are packed into the district

District 27:  

Incumbent: Brian Higgins

Current District:  Obama 54; McCain 44

Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 41

Population: 700,771

Demographics: white 82; black 11; native am. 1; asian 1; hispanic 4; other 1

This Buffalo-based district remains very similar to the current configuration.  The Democratic percentage is made higher with the addition of more of Buffalo.  Also included are Niagara Falls, Tonawanda and areas south of Buffalo in Erie and Chautauqua Counties.

District 28:

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter

Current District:  Obama 69; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 39

Population: 701,210

Demographics: white 77; black 13; native am. 0; asian 3; hispanic 5; other 2

This is one of the few districts that is actually made more compact by this plan.  NY-28 is now almost completely confined to Rochester and Monroe Co. (including the most Democratic parts, ofcourse) with a sliver protruding south to Geneseo  (home of SUNY-Geneseo) in Livingston Co.  The Democratic percentage goes down, but the seat remains safe for a Democrat.

So that’s my plan for New York.  Thanks.

Overall Plan

This entry in the redistricting contest creates 28 Democratic seats and 0 Republican seats. I expect Peter King to lose against Carolyn McCarthy, Chris Lee to lose against Brian Higgins, two Democrats to win in new districts, and one of Scott Murphy or Bill Owens to lose in a primary.

I aimed for compact districts, by and large. Some districts stretch this a little (e.g., 16 and 18), but most are more compact than they used to be. There are no earmuffs like NY-26. There are no water connections over uninhabited islands like NY-08. There’s no connecting through a Con Ed plant to pick up population from Rikers Island like NY-15. Perhaps the only cheap trick was connecting the new Velázquez district through Prospect Park. I even refrained from drawing a thin tendril from Meeks’s district to King’s house.

I was very careful to ensure that a representative actually lives in a district if I assert that I’m drawing a district for him or her. This was rather constraining in several cases. However, I avoided relying on incumbency to keep districts safe, since most of the NY delegation will retire before the next round of maps goes into effect in January 2023.

Along a similar line, I tried to keep Democratic incumbents with at least some of their base of support. For example, since Massa’s current district runs to the Rochester suburbs, I kept it that way rather than giving him some kind of Buffalo-based or Binghamton-based creation. (But when an incumbent, such as Slaughter, has two very distinct bases of support, I only aimed to keep one of them – in Slaughter’s case, it was Rochester rather than Buffalo.) Our incumbents have worked hard to build relationships with local leaders and activists in their current districts, and I’d rather not take that away from them.

All districts are within 100 votes of the target population, except for the three westernmost districts, which are within 200.

Districts by Geography

On Long Island, I’ve reconfigured the two Suffolk districts into an east-west alignment to even out the Democratic advantage between them. In Nassau, I’ve carved King’s district up between Ackerman (whose district is now almost entirely outside the City) and McCarthy, and placed some Republican areas along the NYC border into Meeks’s and Weiner’s districts.

In Queens, Meeks’s district is roughly the same as before, although it now encompasses some Black and Republican areas in Nassau and Brooklyn. Weiner’s district is still based in Forest Hills, but now spills eastward towards Nassau rather than westward into Brooklyn. Lowey’s new district reaches down into Whitestone. Crowley’s district has been consolidated into a compact area of western Queens, and Maloney still has about the same area.

Most of Brooklyn is in VRA districts. Velázquez’s district is heavily Democratic, since I found that I had to use almost entirely Democratic precincts in order to build a 48% Hispanic district. However, I found that it was easy to build solidly Democratic 50% Black districts that had spare capacity to take on Republicans from southern Brooklyn. Therefore, most of southern Brooklyn is divided among the 50% Black VRA districts of Meeks, Towns, and Clarke. Most of the remainder (White Democratic areas like Brooklyn Heights and Park Slope) goes to Nadler, while McMahon and Maloney each represent small areas near the cores of their districts.

Staten Island is in McMahon’s district. If McMahon were to lose in 2010, I would want to split the island across two safely Democratic districts.

Lower Manhattan is split between McMahon (who needs the Democratic votes) and Nadler. Midtown and Uptown up to about 96th are split between Nadler and Maloney, as is roughly the case today. Harlem is still in Rangel’s district.

In the Bronx, Serrano’s district is substantially similar to its current form, although Rangel and Engel both get some of his current Democratic Hispanic votes. The rest is split among two of the districts districts that extend up into Westchester and beyond.

I have divided the northern Metro Area into four districts. Two (Engel and Lowey) have significant Democratic populations from New York City, which allows Engel to take Republican precincts from further Upstate. Hall also extends through Democratic areas nearly to NYC, which allows him to take Republican precincts from further Upstate as well. In particular, Rockland County is carefully divided between Republican precincts (which go to Engel) and Democratic precincts that can be used elsewhere. This allows me to create a fourth new district in the Hudson Valley, which goes from Poughkeepsie down to New City.

I split the Capital Region into two districts, one for Tonko and one for either Murphy or Owens. I judged Owens’s current district too tenuous to maintain in its existing form, so I split the North Country into three parts to attach to Maffei’s, Arcuri’s, and Murphy or Owens’s districts.

In Central New York, Utica and Syracuse each have one district. Binghamton also has a district, which extends eastward to Kingston and Middletown, as it does today. However, I transferred Ithaca from Hinchey to Arcuri in order to solidify Arcuri.

After the 2000 Census, the redistricters drew four districts for Western New York, intending to have them split 3-1 Republican. Their map connected parts of Rochester and Buffalo along a narrow strip to create a packed Democratic district, and then splintered the remaining Democrats among three other districts that they intended for Republicans. However, the four-district region as a whole leans Democratic, so one can create four Democratic districts just by giving each of the four districts an equal number of Democrats. In order to prevent Lee from stealing a district, I’ve put his residence into Higgins’s district and have drawn the incumbent-less district so that it has more Democrats than the other three.

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District Summaries

NY-01

Incumbent: Tim Bishop (D) lives in precinct Southampton 6.

Population: 700259

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
75	6	15	2	0	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 1
Obama %	53.91	51
McCain %	45.56	48

Description: District 1 covers the southern half of Suffolk County, from Brentwood and Central Islip out to the Hamptons. It omits a strip of Republican land along the beach opposite Jones Beach and Fire Islands.

The current NY-01 was drawn to favor a former Republican incumbent, Felix Grucci, and contains all of Republican-leaning eastern Suffolk. In order to equalize the Democratic performance of Districts 1 and 2, I’ve reconfigured them so that each one gets a share of Republican-leaning eastern Suffolk. Thus, a large number of people from the North Fork are moving from NY-01 to NY-02, and a large number of people from the neighborhood of Brentwood and Central Islip are moving from NY-02 to NY-01.

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NY-02

Incumbent: Steve Israel (D) lives in precinct Huntington 100 in Dix Hills.

Population: 700383

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
81	8	7	3	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 2
Obama %	53.36	56
McCain %	46.49	43

Description: District 2 covers the northern half of Suffolk County, from Huntington and Commack, out through Coram to the North Fork.

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NY-03

Incumbents: Carolyn McCarthy (D) lives in precinct North Hempstead 111 in Mineola; Peter King (R) lives in precinct Hempstead 36 in Seaford.

Population: 700386

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
73	11	11	3	0	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 3	Old 4
Obama %	53.23	47	58
McCain %	46.04	52	41

Description: District 3 covers Democratic southwestern Nassau County (Hempstead, Garden City, Valley Stream, Freeport) along with a strip of Republican territory on the shore well into Suffolk County.

In 2008, King outperformed McCain significantly in his district, while McCarthy outperformed Obama modestly in her district. In an incumbent-incumbent race, I expect McCarthy to be able to win in a D-leaning district with 22% Black+Hispanic, particularly since about 2/3 of the district’s population comes from her old NY-04.

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NY-04

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman (D) lives in precinct North Hempstead 99 in Roslyn Heights.

Population: 700388

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
79	6	8	6	0	1

63

36

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 3	Old 5
Obama %	52.88	47
McCain %	46.35	52

Description: District 4 covers most of northern and eastern Nassau County, including Levittown, Hicksville, Oyster Bay, and Port Washington.

This coincides in large part with Peter King’s old NY-03. However, it also includes Democratic territory around Plainview and Port Washington, and it excludes the Republican shore. If King moved into this new district, he could conceivably pull an upset if Ackerman has forgotten how to run a competitive race. (This would be similar to how Tim Holden upset George Gekas in central Pennsylvania after they were thrown together in a Republican-leaning district.)

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NY-05

Incumbent: Gregory Meeks (D) lives in precinct Queens 33-28 in St. Albans.

Population: 700255

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
28	50	11	5	0	5

Presidential Voting

	New	Old
Obama %	78.94	89
McCain %	20.73	11

Description: As a VRA district, District 5 covers the Black areas of eastern Queens, St. Albans and Far Rockaway. It also covers several nearby Republican areas: the Five Towns, Rockaway Peninsula, and (through a connection across the Flatbush Ave. Bridge) Sheepshead Bay and Manhattan Beach.

This district achieves its required 50% Black population in southeastern Queens, and then uses its spare capacity to help achieve two goals: 1) It takes Republican votes from the Five Towns that might otherwise help King. 2) It helps break up the large White Republican sections of southern Brooklyn into irrelevant pieces. Currently, Weiner’s district achieves this second goal, but I prefer to use Weiner to inoculate Republican votes in Queens.

One more thing: For historical reasons, Section 5 of the VRA does not apply to Queens, only to the other three major boroughs. I think it would be a good thing to investigate whether Meeks’s district could be broken up to help out McCarthy and Ackerman against King. Meeks could still win a ~40% Black district handily. But maybe there’s a Section 2 thing that I’m not understanding?

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NY-06

Incumbent: Ed Towns (D) lives in precinct 54-56 in East New York.

Population: 700355

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
30	50	13	4	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 10
Obama %	79.82	91
McCain %	19.9	9

Description: As a VRA district, District 6 covers certain Black areas of Brooklyn (East New York, Brownsville, Canarsie, Flatlands). It also covers some nearby Republican areas around Gravesend and Brighton Beach.

This is another “Blacks and Republicans” district that achieves its required 50% Black population in one area, and then stretches out to White southern Brooklyn to split up the McCain votes there.

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NY-07

Incumbent: Yvette Clarke (D) lives in precinct Brooklyn 43-78 in Prospect Gardens.

Population: 700389

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
31	50	9	7	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 11
Obama %	79.31	90
McCain %	20.33	9

Description: As a VRA district, District 7 covers certain Black areas of Brooklyn (Bed-Stuy and Crown Heights). It also covers some nearby Republican areas, such as Mapleton and Bensonhurst.

This is another “Blacks and Republicans” district that achieves its required 50% Black population in one area, and then stretches out to White southern Brooklyn to split up the Republican votes there. Currently, Nadler’s district does this, but I prefer to make Nadler’s district less spectacularly gerrymandered than it is today.

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NY-08

Incumbent: Nydia Veláquez (D) lives in precinct Brooklyn 72-100 in Carroll Gardens.

Population: 700328

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
19	20	48	9	0	4

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 12
Obama %	88.22	86
McCain %	11.14	13

Description: As a VRA district, District 8 covers Hispanic areas of Brooklyn (Bushwick, some of Williamsburg, Boerum Hill, Sunset Park, and Kensington). It connects the two large Hispanic populations with a narrow strip through Prospect Heights and Prospect Park.

The Hispanic population of Brooklyn is barely large and concentrated enough to sustain a high-percentage district. Because of this, I avoided putting any nearby non-Hispanic areas in the district, such as Park Slope, Greenpoint, or the Republican sections of southern Brooklyn.

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NY-09

Incumbent: Jerrold Nadler (D) lives in precinct Manhattan 35-67 on the Upper West Side.

Population: 700352

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
52	11	18	16	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 8
Obama %	85.33	74
McCain %	13.85	25

Description: District 9 runs from the UWS, through Chelsea, and over to the LES. Then it crosses the Brooklyn and Manhattan Bridges, and covers several neighborhoods in Brooklyn: Brooklyn Heights, Park Slope, Red Hook, and Bay Ridge.

The Brooklyn portion of the district consists (by and large) of White Democratic neighborhoods. These are the neighborhoods that are not covered by the VRA districts.

I would ideally like to extend this district far enough down into Bay Ridge so that McMahon’s district would contain none of Brooklyn. However, it is difficult to do this and still have the district reach Nadler’s apartment on 70th St. In the end, I’m satisfied that McMahon’s district is sufficiently Democratic.

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NY-10

Incumbent: Mike McMahon (D) lives in precinct Staten Island 61-35 on the northern part of the island (I don’t know neighborhood names).

Population: 700426

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
72	7	11	8	0	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 13
Obama %	57.29	49
McCain %	41.95	51

Description: District 10 covers all of Staten Island, part of Bay Ridge in Brooklyn (connected by the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge), and the western half of Lower Manhattan (connected by the Staten Island Ferry).

The existing NY-13 was drawn to favor former Republican congressman Vito Fossella. A major goal of any Democratic redistricting should be to make this into a safe Democratic district. I accomplish this by adding a large portion of heavily Democratic Lower Manhattan. If there were a Republican incumbent, I would have split Staten Island into two pieces in order to guarantee the Republican’s defeat. However, that seems like overkill to shore up the seat for a sitting Democrat.

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NY-11

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney (D) lives in an unknown precinct on the Upper East Side (I’m assuming between 59th and 96th).

Population: 700270

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
70	4	13	4	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 14
Obama %	77.09	78
McCain %	22.06	21

Description: District 11 covers the Upper East Side and Midtown East in Manhattan, Astoria and Long Island City in Queens, and Greenpoint and Williamsburg (the non-Hispanic parts) in Brooklyn. Although not visible on the Brooklyn map, the two sections of Brooklyn are connected by a couple precincts near the waterfront.

This district is very similar to Maloney’s current district.

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NY-12

Incumbent: Charlie Rangel (D) lives in precinct Manhattan 70-31 in Harlem.

Population: 700336

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
13	31	51	3	0	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 15
Obama %	93.62	93
McCain %	5.79	6

Description: District 12 covers Harlem (including Spanish Harlem) and Washington Heights, as well as a bit of the South Bronx. It has majority-minority (in fact, majority Hispanic) population.

Although this district has traditionally been considered a Black district, it is now majority Hispanic. There is a strong possibility of a Hispanic representative once Rangel retires or is driven out of office because of corruption.

I live in this district.

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NY-13

Incumbent: Joe Crowley (D) lives in precinct Queens 30-45 in Woodside.

Population: 700405

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
33	6	38	19	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 7
Obama %	71.26	79
McCain %	27.99	20

Description: District 13 covers several neighborhoods in Queens, including Jackson Heights, Corona, and Middle Village.

This district is quite different from the old NY-07, which reaches into the Bronx. I’m not sure why NY-07 has such a strange shape, and I see no good reason for it.

District 13 is a rare diverse district in the age of VRA-based segregation – no racial group exceeds 40% of the population. If Crowley retires in the coming decade, one could imagine a White, Hispanic, or Asian representative from this district. The Black voting population is actually slightly lower than 6%, since the district includes 8000 Black inmates at Rikers Island.

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NY-14

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner (D) lives in precinct Queens 28-36 in Forest Hills.

Population: 700334

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
41	8	19	24	0	8

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 9
Obama %	66.67	55
McCain %	32.64	44

Description: District 14 covers several neighborhoods in Queens. Starting at Howard Beach, it comes up through Ozone Park to Forest Hills, and then goes eastbound along the LIE to Little Neck. It also contains Great Neck in Nassau County, in order to isolate the Republican voters there from Peter King.

This district is more Democratic than the existing NY-09. That’s because the existing map uses NY-09 to fracture the Republican vote in southern Brooklyn. Instead, I use Meeks’s more heavily Democratic district to fracture Republicans in Brooklyn.

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NY-15

Incumbent: José E. Serrano (D) lives in precinct Bronx 77-74 in the South Bronx.

Population:700362

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
2	32	62	2	0	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 16
Obama %	94.60	95
McCain %	5.20	5

Description: District 15 covers the South Bronx, including the area just west of the Whitestone Bridge (Soundview?). It has a 60% Hispanic supermajority.

This district is substantially similar to the existing NY-16. However, it allows Engel to take some more Democratic votes from around Fordham campus.

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NY-16

Incumbent: Eliot Engel (D) lives in precinct Bronx 81-67 in Riverdale.

Population: 700249

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
53	14	26	5	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 17
Obama %	63.08	62
McCain %	36.26	38

Description: District 16 covers the northwestern Bronx (Riverdale, Kingsbridge, Bedford Park) and Yonkers. It then crosses the Hudson and picks up Republican areas along the New Jersey border in Rockland and Orange Counties.

Because this district gets so many Democratic votes from the Bronx and Yonkers, it can very selectively include only Republican voting districts in Rockland County. Many voting districts in Rockland County are either very Republican or very Democratic (possibly because of the separation of the Orthodox Jewish communities from other towns up there). As a result, the remainder of Rockland County can provide a core of Democratic votes for a district in the Hudson Valley. Obama lost District 16’s portion of Rockland County (134k population) by 16%, but won the remainder (167k population) by 23%.

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NY-17

Incumbent: Nita Lowey (D) lives in precinct Harrison 10 near Rye.

Population: 700372

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
43	23	21	10	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 18
Obama %	71.91	62
McCain %	27.53	38

Description: Within New York City, District 17 covers Whitestone in Queens and most of the eastern Bronx. It then continues along the shore (New Rochelle and Rye).

Nita Lowey used to represent parts of Bronx and Queens, and she can again. In compensation for taking away most of her current district’s population, I’ve given her a heavily Democratic district majority-minority district.

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NY-18

Incumbent: John Hall (D) lives in precinct Dover 1 in Dover Plains.

Population:700344

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
74	11	10	3	0	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 19
Obama %	58.07	51
McCain %	41.05	48

Description: District 18 starts in Democratic Mt. Vernon next to the Bronx, and snakes its way up through Democratic White Plains to rural Putnam and Dutchess Counties.

This district is heavily Democratic, without cutting into the Hudson Valley precincts that I need for the new Democratic-leaning District 19.

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NY-19

Incumbent: None.

Population: 700376

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
71	11	12	3	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New
Obama %	58.20
McCain %	40.79

Description: District 19 lies in the Hudson Valley, including Poughkeepsie, Newburgh, Peekskill, and the Democratic portions of Rockland County. (See description of District 16 above.)

Although this district strongly favors Democrats at the federal level, there is no Democratic incumbent. Furthermore, the state legislators are all Republican, as are the mayors of Poughkeepsie and Newburgh. I believe that a Democratic non-politician along the lines of Hall, Murphy, or Owens would claim this seat. However, if the DCCC failed to recruit effectively, this district could fall to a local Republican.

Neither Sue Kelly (lost to Hall in 2006), John Sweeney (lost to Gillibrand in 2006), nor Jim Tedisco (lost to Murphy in 2009) lives in this district.

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NY-20

Incumbent: Paul Tonko (D) lives in precinct Amsterdam city 1.

Population: 700342

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
89	6	3	1	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 21
Obama %	54.49	58
McCain %	43.68	40

Description: District 20 contains part of the Capital Region, including Albany.

This district is slightly less Democratic than its predecessor. Most notably, it gives up Democratic Schenectady and Troy in order to make the new District 21 safer.

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NY-21

Incumbent: Scott Murphy (D) lives in precinct Glens Falls 5; Bill Owens (D) lives in precinct Plattsburgh 3.

Population: 700425

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
92	3	2	1	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 20	Old 23
Obama %	54.90	51	52
McCain %	43.41	48	47

Description: District 21 runs along the Vermont border, containing Schenectady, Troy, Saratoga Springs, and Plattsburgh.

The existing NY-20 and NY-23 were both created for Republican incumbents, and neither is particularly attractive to Democrats. Rather than contort district boundaries to preserve seats for both of these Blue Dogs, I prefer to carve up the moderate/Republican North Country to give safer seats to one of them and to Arcuri.

In a head-to-head primary, both candidates would have a reasonable chance of winning, since many of the Democratic votes would come from around Schenectady and Troy, which are presently in Tonko’s district.

Of course, there’s a real chance that one of these incumbents will lose in 2010. If that happens, then this district should favor the Democratic incumbent. Jim Tedisco (lost to Murphy) and Doug Hoffman (lost to Owens) both live in this district, but Dede Scozzafava (withdrew against Owens) does not.

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NY-22

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey (D) lives in precinct Hurley 3.

Population: 700380

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
87	5	5	2	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old
Obama %	53.24	59
McCain %	45.30	39

Description: District 22 contains Kingston, Middletown, Binghamton, and Elmira.

Giving Democratic Ithaca to Hinchey only makes sense if one is trying to pack Upstate Democratic votes in order to create Republican seats. This new district has enough Democrats from Binghamton and the Hudson Valley to be easily winnable.

Hinchey (born 1938) will probably retire during the next decade, and Republicans could make a play for this district in an open-seat election. However, the eastern part of the district is quickly becoming more Democratic (see Sue Kelly and John Sweeney), and I would expect Democrats to hold the seat.

Since the average district size increased by 4%, this new District 22 can span about the same amount of longitude without looking quite as goofy as the old NY-22.

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NY-23

Incumbent: Michael Arcuri (D) lives in precinct Utica 4.

Population: 700382

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
92	3	2	2	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 24
Obama %	52.62	50
McCain %	45.66	48

Description: District 23 contains Potsdam, Utica, and Ithaca.

Arcuri looked surprisingly weak in the 2008 election. However, with the advantage of incumbency and a district that’s a few percent safer, he should be able to hold his seat. He is one of the few Democratic incumbents who may stay in Congress until 2030.

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NY-24

Incumbent: Dan Maffei (D) lives in precinct DeWitt 3 near Syracuse.

Population: 700338

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
87	7	2	2	1	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 25
Obama %	55.45	56
McCain %	42.76	43

Description: District 24 contains Syracuse and Watertown.

This is the safest of the seats in the central part of the state. Its Democratic performance is similar to Maffei’s old district, but it crucially takes its non-Syracuse Democratic votes from the North rather than from the Rochester area. This allows the Rochester area to be split into Democratic-leaning districts.

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NY-25

Incumbent: Eric Massa (D) lives in Corning city.

Population: 700395

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
91	4	2	1	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 29
Obama %	52.64	48
McCain %	45.92	50

Description: District 25 is based in the Rochester area, containing the eastern part of the city, and most of the northeastern suburbs. It goes along the Lake Ontario coast as far East as Oswego, and also extends to the Finger Lakes Region (Auburn, Geneva, Canandaigua) and down through rural areas to the Pennsylvania border.

This district is much safer for Massa than the old NY-29.

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NY-26

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter (D) lives in precinct Perinton 14 in Fairport.

Population: 700170

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
80	12	5	2	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 28
Obama %	53.00	68
McCain %	45.73	30

Description: District 26 is also based in the Rochester area, containing the western part of the city and most of the suburbs. It contains rural areas (including Livingston and Allegany Counties) going South to the Pennsylvania border.

To create more safe Democratic seats in western New York, I give Slaughter’s Buffalo Democrats to the new NY-27 and give some of her Rochester Democrats to Massa in the new NY-25.

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NY-27

Incumbent: None.

Population: 700157

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
84	11	2	2	1	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 26
Obama %	54.55	46
McCain %	43.90	52

Description: District 27 is based in the Buffalo area, containing the northern part of the city, Niagara Falls, and rural areas to the North and East.

On a map, it may appear as though this district should “belong” to Lee, if he decided to move into it. However, only about 300k of the residents are part of Lee’s current district. Nearly as many (270k) are part of Slaughter’s current district, and the remainder are largely Democrats from Higgins’s district.

Because there is no Democratic incumbent here, I’ve made it the safest Democratic seat of western New York. If Lee did decide to run here, he would face a very tough district full of Democrats who don’t know him. Furthermore, Lee is not a strong candidate. Despite a bitter three-way Democratic primary in 2008 that produced a weak candidate, Lee barely managed to outpoll McCain in his current district.

Byron Brown (mayor of Buffalo) and Alice Kryzan (lost to Lee in 2008) live in this district. Jon Powers (lost in the primary to Kryzan in 2008) and Tom Reynolds (retired in 2008) do not. I don’t know about Jack Davis (lost several times).

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NY-28

Incumbents: Brian Higgins (D) lives in precinct South 19 in Buffalo; Chris Lee (R) lives in an unknown precinct in Clarence.

Population: 700176

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
85	8	4	1	1	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 27
Obama %	54.23	54
McCain %	44.11	44

Description: District 28 is based in the Buffalo area, containing the southern part of the city, the eastern and southern suburbs, and rural Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties.

Higgins would certainly beat Lee in an incumbent-incumbent matchup. A considerable majority of the population comes from Higgins’s old district, and the district leans safely to Democrats.

This is my entry for Round 1 of the Great SSP Redistricting Contest. Let me apologize to the early commenters who couldn’t see the whole diary.  I was saving it as I typed it just in case my computer decided to shut down on me in the middle of this long write up.  Without further ado…

In addition to the contest rules, I added two personal goals for my map: 1) Create 28 districts that gave a majority of their votes to President Obama. 2) Add some cushion to potentially vulnerable members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. CPC members are Clarke, Hall, Hinchey, Maloney, Massa, Nadler, Rangel, Serrano, Slaughter and Velazquez.

Here's the big picture:  

Long Island

NY-1 Tim Bishop

Population:  700,503

New 1st:  Obama – 53, McCain – 47

Old 1st:  Obama – 52, McCain – 48

Race:  White – 84, Black – 4, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 8, Other – 1.

This district isn’t much different from it’s old counterpart.  Smithtown is no longer in this district while parts of Islip have been added.  Bishop’s district is slightly more Democratic, with +2 percentage points.

NY-2 Steve Israel

Population:  701,080

New 2nd:  Obama – 53, McCain – 47

Old 2nd:  Obama – 56, McCain – 43

Race:  White – 74, Black – 8, Asian – 3, Hispanic – 13, Other – 2.

This district isn’t as strong as Israel’s old one (you’ll find out why below), but is still majority-Obama.  Smithtown from the 1st and parts of Babylon from the 3rd have been added. been added.  Parts of Islip, Oyster Bay, and Babylon have been subtracted.  With these changes, Obama is -7 from the old 2nd, but still takes 53% of the vote.

NY-3 Carolyn McCarthy

Population:  700,222

New 3rd:  Obama – 54, McCain – 45

Old 3rd:  Obama – 47, McCain – 52

Old 4th:  Obama – 58, McCain – 41

Race:  White – 71, Black – 12, Asian – 4, Hispanic – 12, Other – 2.

Since we get bonus points for screwing Peter King, I decided to eliminate his district.  Oyster Bay is now split into McCarthy’s and Ackerman’s districts.  I don’t know which part King’s house is in, but unless he moves, he’ll have to run against one of them.  I tried to keep the new 2nd, 3rd, and 4th districts as evenly Democratic as possible, so they were all diluted to get their fair share of King’s pro-McCain district.  In McCarthy’s case, her home in Mineola, Hempstead, and parts of Oyster Bay make a change of -8 from her old district.

NY-4 Gary Ackerman

Population:  700,925

New 4th:  Obama – 54, McCain – 45

Old 5th:  Obama – 63, McCain – 36

Race:  White – 78, Black – 6, Asian – 7, Hispanic – 8, Other – 1.

This district is ugly.  Ackerman was hit the hardest of the 3, but in order to screw King, he’ll have to take one for the team.  His district is still Obama +9.  His home of Roslyn Heights, plus parts of Oyster Bay, Hempstead, Babylon, and Queens make up the new 4th.  Change is a whopping -18.

The Boroughs

NY-5 Gregory Meeks

Population:  700,739

New 5th:  Obama – 82, McCain – 18

Old 6th:  Obama – 89, McCain – 11

Race:  White – 21, Black – 52, Asian – 7, Hispanic – 14, Other – 6.

This is a VRA district, 52% black.  Not much has really changed here from the old 6th.  Some of the western areas have been placed in the new 8th.

NY-6 Joseph Crowley

Population:  701,328

New 6th:  Obama – 74, McCain – 25

Old 7th:  Obama – 79, McCain – 20

Race:  White – 25, Black – 6, Asian – 27, Hispanic – 38, Other – 4.

Crowley loses the Bronx, but gains more of Queens.

NY-7 Jerry Nadler

Population:  700,683

New 7th:  Obama – 56, McCain – 43

Old 8th:  Obama – 74, McCain – 26

Race:  White – 65, Black – 4, Asian – 15, Hispanic – 12, Other – 3.

This district took a big hit in order to help McMahon.  Includes much of South Brooklyn and snakes up into the Northern parts.

NY-8 Anthony Weiner

Population:  701,185

New 8th:  Obama – 61, McCain – 38

Old 9th:  Obama – 55, McCain – 44

Race:  White – 55, Black – 6, Asian – 17, Hispanic – 16, Other – 6.

Weiner’s distric is simililar to his old one, but loses some Brooklyn areas, holds onto Forest Hills, and adds more of Queens.  Obama gains +12.

NY-9 Ed Towns

Population:  700,786

New 9th:  Obama – 92, McCain – 7

Old 10th:  Obama – 91, McCain – 9

Race:  White – 17, Black – 60, Asian – 7, Hispanic – 12, Other – 3.

Another VRA district, this one 60% black.  This Brooklyn based district now extends into Manhattan.

NY-10 Yvette Clarke

Population:  700,960

New 10th:  Obama – 84, McCain – 16

Old 11th:  Obama – 91, McCain – 9

Race:  White – 25, Black – 52, Asian – 5, Hispanic – 13, Other – 4.

VRA district, 52% black.  Clarke’s new district now snakes into Queens.

NY-11 Nydia Velazquez

Population:  700,306

New 8th:  Obama – 87, McCain – 12

Old 9th:  Obama – 86, McCain – 13

Race:  White – 22, Black – 16, Asian – 8, Hispanic – 50, Other – 4.

VRA district that is 50% hispanic.  Still gets Brooklyn and Manhattan but also gets much more of Queens.

NY-12 Mike McMahon

Population:  701,421

New 12th:  Obama – 54, McCain – 45

Old 13th:  Obama – 49, McCain – 51

Race:  White – 61, Black – 8, Asian – 8, Hispanic – 20, Other – 3.

This district should be much easier for McMahon, going from majority McCain to majority Obama.  Still has all of Staten Island, but Brooklyn areas are more Democratic than the old 13th.

NY-13 Carolyn Maloney

Population:  699,898

New 13th:  Obama – 81, McCain – 18

Old 14th:  Obama – 78, McCain – 21

Race:  White – 72, Black – 5, Asian – 11, Hispanic – 10, Other – 2.

Maloney’s Upper East Side base, plus Southern Manhattan.  No longer in Queens.

NY-14 Charlie Rangel

Population:  700,649

New 14th:  Obama – 91, McCain – 8

Old 15th:  Obama – 93, McCain – 6

Race:  White – 29, Black – 26, Asian – 3, Hispanic – 40, Other – 2.

VRA district that is 71% minority.  Rangel gets some new areas south of his old district but cedes some of his old district to the new 11th and new 15th.

NY-15 Jose Serrano

Population:  701,218

New 15th:  Obama – 95, McCain – 5

Old 16th:  Obama – 95, McCain – 5

Race:  White – 3, Black – 30, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 63, Other – 2.

VRA district that is 63% hispanic.  Other than taking a little bit of Manhattan and a little bit of Queens, this district does not change much.

NY-16 Eliot Engel

Population:  699,973

New 16th:  Obama – 80, McCain – 20

Old 17th:  Obama – 72, McCain – 28

Race:  White – 33, Black – 22, Asian – 6, Hispanic – 36, Other – 3.

Instead of going from Engel’s home of Woodside and heading upstate, this district takes most of the Bronx areas from the old 7th and even gets into north Queens a little bit.

Upstate

NY-17 Nita Lowey

Population:  701,251

New 17th:  Obama – 70, McCain – 30

Old 18th:  Obama – 62, McCain – 38

Race:  White – 50, Black – 25, Asian – 4, Hispanic – 18, Other – 3.

Loses parts of Rockland Co. and the parts of Westchester Co. down to the Northern parts of White Plains.  Extends south into Mount Vernon and the Bronx.

NY-18 John Hall

Population:  700,819

New 18th:  Obama – 57, McCain – 42

Old 19th:  Obama – 51, McCain – 48

Race:  White – 77, Black – 8, Asian – 3, Hispanic – 9, Other – 2.

Of all the districts, this one was my favorite to rearrange.  Hall was elected in a 54% Bush district that only improved to 51% Obama in the 2008 election.  Can’t let that stand, now can we?  Hall now has Westchester Co. north of White Plains, all of Putnam Co., and Dutchess Co. up to his home in Dover.  Obama gets +12.  That should give this CPC member plenty of breathing room.  Dance with me.

NY-19 Scott Murphy

Population:  700,169

New 19th:  Obama – 54, McCain – 45

Old 20th:  Obama – 51, McCain – 48

Race:  White – 92, Black – 3, Asian – 1, Hispanic – 2, Other – 1.

Murphy keeps his home in Glens Falls but loses the rest of Warren Co.  He also loses Ostego, Delaware, and Greene.  In exchange, he gains some Albany burbs.

NY-20 Paul Tonko

Population:  701,411

New 20th:  Obama – 56, McCain – 43

Old 21st:  Obama – 58, McCain – 40

Race:  White – 83, Black – 8, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 6, Other – 2.

Tonko gets Albany, most of Albany Co., Schenectady, Schoharie, Greene, and Mongomery Cos.  He also gets parts of Delaware, Sullivan, Orange, Fulton, and Herkimer Cos.

NY-21 Maurice Hinchey

Population:  700,399

New 21st:  Obama – 55, McCain – 44

Old 20th:  Obama – 59, McCain – 39

Race:  White – 77, Black – 8, Asian – 3, Hispanic – 10, Other – 2.

Hinchey gets Ulster and Rockland Cos., plus eastern parts of Orange.

NY-22 Bill Owens

Population:  701,006

New 22nd:  Obama – 52, McCain – 47

Old 23rd:  Obama – 52, McCain – 47

Race:  White – 94, Black – 2, Asian – 1, Hispanic – 2, Other – 1.

Owens basically gets the northern part of the state.  Presidential vote percentage stays the same.

NY-23 Mike Arcuri

Population:  698,936

New 23rd:  Obama – 53, McCain – 46

Old 24th:  Obama – 51, McCain – 48

Race:  White – 89, Black – 6, Asian – 1, Hispanic – 3, Other – 1.

I tried to help Arcuri, considering how close his reelection was in 2008.  I tried to help him there by taking away some Republican areas such as Herkimer, Broome, and Tioga and giving him the bottom half of Syracuse and all of Madison Co.  Obama gets +4.

NY-24 Dan Maffei

Population:  700,343

New 24th:  Obama – 53, McCain – 45

Old 25th:  Obama – 56, McCain – 43

Race:  White – 92, Black – 3, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 2, Other – 1.

Maffei’s district gets -5 for Obama voters, but he should still be safe.  District stretches from Syracuse to Rochester and picks up Republican Ontario Co. and parts of Steuben and Livingston.

NY-25 Chris Lee

Population:  701,362

New 25th:  Obama – 52, McCain – 47

Old 26th:  Obama – 46, McCain – 52

Race:  White – 85, Black – 9, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 3, Other – 1.

Like King, Lee now finds himself in a majority Obama district.  Working Families Party’s 2008 nominee Jon Powers lives in Clarence with Lee and would probably be able to win this district (heck I think he could have won it in 2008 had it not been for that messed up Democratic Primary).  It stretches from Rochester to Buffalo and includes all of Genesee and Orleans Cos. and most of Niagara Co.

NY-26 Brian Higgins

Population:  695,323

New 26th:  Obama – 54, McCain – 45

Old 27th:  Obama – 54, McCain – 44

Race:  White – 89, Black – 5, Native – 1, Asian – 1, Hispanic – 4, Other – 1.

Not much changes partisanship wise for Higgins.  He now has Niagara Falls, West Buffalo, West Erie Co, all of Chautauqua, West and South Cattaraugus, and South Allegany.

NY-27 Louise Slaughter

Population:  694,213

New 27th:  Obama – 58, McCain – 41

Old 28th:  Obama – 69, McCain – 30

Race:  White – 77, Black – 15, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 4, Other – 1.

This one goes from Rochester to Buffalo and then snakes over to Steuben, Yates, and Schuyler Cos.  Kinda ugly, but honestly, I think my districts are much better looking than whoever drew the current New York map.  I’m guessing it was Pataki and the Republicans in the legislature wanting to protect several districts that now belong to Democrats.  Ha ha.  In any event, Slaughter loses a lot of Obama voters, but still has a good district.

NY-28 Eric Massa

Population:  701,496

New 28th:  Obama – 54, McCain – 44

Old 29th:  Obama – 48, McCain – 51

Race:  White – 88, Black – 6, Asian – 2, Hispanic – 2, Other – 1.

Like McMahon, Massa goes from a McCain district to an Obama district.  Like Hall, Massa is now a CPC member with a district not as hostile.  Buffalo, down to his home in Corning, up into Thompkins Co. and east to Delaware, Sullivan, and Orange.  Possibly the ugliest district on my map.  But it’s an ugly district that gave Obama +10 over McCain.

There you have it, 28 districts that gave Barack Obama a majority in 2008.  Can all of these districts elect Democrats?  Yes.  Will they?  That depends on our candidates.

Let me know what you think.

Here is my entry for Round 1 of the Great Swing State Project Redistricting Contest – New York Edition.

Because New York’s population has not been keeping up with the national average, it is expected to lose a seat. In my map, that seat in Peter King’s NY-03. NY-03 on Long Island is eliminated and “moved” all the way to the other side of the State, where it reappears as the successor of Eric Massa’s NY-29. NY-01, NY-02, NY-04, NY-05, NY-06, and NY-18 all devour a piece of NY-03, though NY-06 and NY-04 get the toughest pieces of meat. But other than NY-29 being renumbered NY-03, all the district numbers correspond to their existing incumbents.

There are only 11 districts which voted less than 60% for Obama (NY-01, NY-20, NY-21, NY-22, NY-23, NY-24, NY-25, NY-26, NY-27, NY-28, NY-03), only 5 districts which voted less than 57% for Obama (NY-23, NY-24, NY-26, NY-27, NY-03), only 2 districts which voted less than 53% for Obama (NY-24, NY-26), and only one district that McCain actually won (NY-26).

All incumbents should live in their districts (or else live close enough that only a few precincts would need to be traded in order for them to live in their district), with the exception of Jerold Nadler (NY-08). He already lives at the far northern edge of his district, and it gets sucked further into Brooklyn. Oh yeah, and I suppose Peter King is also an exception – he does not live in his district any more because he does not have a district any more.

All other contest rules are obeyed (No touch point contiguity, VRA districts fully respected, etc).

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Upstate

Upstate, my goal was to strengthen Democratic incumbents to the degree possible without significantly endangering other Democratic incumbents. For example, I wanted to make NY-23, more Democratic not at the expense of turning NY-21 into a seat that is potentially competitive. I also wanted to reduce the appearance of gerrymandering in this part of the State, partly because gerrymandering is the most conspicuous in upstate New York. Because upstate has a disproportionate ratio of land mass to population, people just looking at a map of Congressional districts will naturally focus on upstate when determining how gerrymandered New York looks. I also wanted to keep at least the core of all the existing districts, which is challenging because much of the population loss has been in upstate New York. Because I did not eliminate a district upstate, all the upstate districts feel a substantial force sucking them towards NYC.

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NY-27

Incumbent: Brian Higgins (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	88%	5%	1%	4%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	54%	44%
New District	55%	43%
Change	+1%	-1%

Given the fact that Erie County is large enough that it has to be split no matter what we do, and given my desire to strengthen Eric Massa’s NY-29 (renumbered to NY-03), I opted to largely keep NY-27 as it is. The only changes are that it gives up some of Buffalo’s eastern suburbs (most significantly Cheektowaga) to NY-03, and picks up Niagara Falls and Tonawanda to the north. As a result, NY-27 becomes marginally more Democratic and safer for Higgins. Obama did not improve by much here over Kerry, and Buffalo may be trending slightly Republican, but Higgins should continue to be favored here.

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NY-03

Incumbent: Eric Massa (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	82%	14%	2%	1%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	48%	51%
New District	55%	44%
Change	+7%	-7%

Eric Massa’s district (old NY-29, renamed NY-03) is difficult to deal with. Massa lives in Corning in Steuben County, which is very inconvenient because the counties in that area are some of the most heavily Republican in New York State. Because I wanted to clean up Rochester and because the districts in Western New York have to be pushed generally to the East, sending the district north did not really work. I tried making an Ithaca-Binghampton based district for Massa, but that does not really work either because without Ithaca, it is difficult to avoid weakening NY-24. Also, if you make an Ithaca-Binghampton/Elmira/Corning district for Massa, then you have to waste Democratic votes in the Buffalo area unless you keep a modified Rochester-Buffalo version of NY-28 (which in turn means that Rochester is still split asunder). All this should make the point that western New York is a very delicate balancing act, and there is not really any great obvious way to draw the districts. Reorganizing things so that Massa’s district goes to Buffalo seems to be the least worst option.

In any case, Massa’s district swings Democratic by a net of 14 points. About half the population is in Erie County, so he could potentially face a primary challenge, but assuming Massa prevails in any primary and that people in Buffalo get to like him, he should have an excellent chance to hold on to this district for a long time to come.

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NY-26

Incumbent: Chris Lee (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	94%	2%	1%	2%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	46%	52%
New District	43%	56%
Change	-3%	+3%

Now we come to the token Republican district in New York State. Chris Lee should be quite safe in NY-26, representing a district that stretches all the way from the Buffalo Suburbs to the Rochestere suburbs and even to outlying areas around Binghamton. But mostly, this district is rural. It would be possible to make it more heavily Republican and to help make neighboring districts (particularly NY-03) slightly more Democratic in several places, but not without splitting many more counties and making upstate New York look much more gerrymandered.

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NY-28

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	77%	13%	3%	5%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	69%	30%
New District	59%	39%
Change	-10%	+9%

Rochester is put back together, into one fairly safe Democratic district. Though this NY-28 is substantially less Democratic than the previous Rochester to Buffalo serpent, it is still Democratic enough for Louise Slaughter or whichever Democrat succeeds her to win easily.

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NY-25

Incumbent: Dan Maffei (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	88%	6%	2%	2%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	56%	43%
New District	57%	42%
Change	+1%	-1%

NY-25 remains firmly anchored in the Syracuse area. Onadonga County continues to dominate the district. But instead of heading west to the Rochester suburbs, NY-25 now heads south to the outskirts of Binghamton. If there is further population loss after another 10 years, NY-25 could become a true Syracuse-Binghamton district tracing I-81. Maffei should be slightly safer in this marginally more Democratic district.

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NY-24

Incumbent: Mike Arcuri (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	91%	3%	2%	2%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	51%	48%
New District	52%	46%
Change	+1%	-2%

NY-24 becomes swings a net of 3 points Democratic, but realistically remains a swing district. NY-24 is composed of two major pieces. To the east of Syracuse is the area surrounding Utica (Oneida, Herkimer, and Otsego Counties). To the west of Syracuse is the finger lakes region (Tompkins, Auburn, and Seneca Counties, with the city of Geneva thrown in). The old version of NY-24 connected these two pieces by running to the south of Syracuse, while the new NY-24 connects the pieces by running to the north of Syracuse, through Oswego County.

NY-24 could still run to the South through Cortland and Chenango Counties, but then NY-25 would have to take Oswego County, and would have to split the bothe Cayuga and Oneida counties with NY-24. That would make NY-25 1 point less Democratic and NY-24 1 point more Democratic than my version, but it also looks much more gerrymandered.

In any case, Arcuri can’t really complain, because his district adds Ithaca and becomes more Democratic, even if only a little bit more Democratic. This is not necessarily a safe Democratic seat for perpetuity, but Mike Arcuri has a good chance of holding it.

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NY-23

Incumbent: Bill Owens (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	93%	2%	1%	2%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	52%	46%
New District	53%	46%
Change	+1%	0%

NY-23 becomes a much more compact and ever so slightly more Democratic district firmly based in New York’s North Country. The district consists of all of Jefferson, Lewis, St. Lawrence, Hamilton, Franklin, Clinton, and Essex counties, along with nearly all of Warren and Saratoga Counties, taken from the old NY-20.

It is very tempting to give NY-23 some Democratic precincts in the Albany/Schenectady area. That could be done, but at the cost of a more gerrymandered looking map and possibly at the cost of pushing NY-21 towards competitiveness, which I wanted to avoid. One potential problem is that Doug Hoffman is drawn into the district. But if Owens can win in 2010, he ought to be able to win this new district in 2012 as well.

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NY-21

Incumbent: Paul Tonko (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	86%	7%	2%	3%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	58%	40%
New District	57%	41%
Change	-1%	+1%

NY-21 stays almost entirely the same. The only difference is that it now takes in all of Fulton County, and slightly more of Rensselaer County. The upshot is that it swings a net of 2 points Republican, but remains a reasonably strong Democratic leaning district. Tonko is no less safe than he is now.

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NY-20

Incumbent: Scott Murphy (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	80%	8%	3%	7%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	51%	48%
New District	58%	41%
Change	+7%	-7%

NY-20 is one of the chief beneficiaries of the magnetic force pulling upstate districts towards New York City. A former swing district becomes much more solidly Democratic. Though a substantial portion of the district (Washington, Columbia, Greene, and parts of Rensselaer and Dutchess Counties) remains, the population center drifts down further towards the NYC suburbs, with the addition of Poughkeepsie and other towns along the East bank of the Hudson all the way to the edge of Yonkers. Murphy’s home in Glens Falls is included – barely – in the far north of the district (yes, that looks like touch point contiguity, but it’s not if you zoom in). It is quite possible that Scott Murphy could face a primary challenge from the southern end of the district. But regardless of which particular person NY-20 sends to Washington or whether that person lives in the north or the south of the district, that person would very likely be a Democrat.

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NY-22

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	79%	7%	2%	10%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	59%	39%
New District	57%	42%
Change	-2%	+1%

NY-22 loses both Ithaca and Poughkeepsie, but becomes only marginally more Republican. It expands a little bit down the western bank of the Hudson, through Orange and into Rockland County, but (with the exception of the losses previously mentioned) this district remains substantially the same. Hinchey will be just fine.

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NY-19

Incumbent: John Hall (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	62%	20%	3%	12%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	51%	48%
New District	60%	39%
Change	+9%	-9%

Like NY-20, NY-19 becomes much more Democratic as it is sucked into Westchester County. As with NY-20, the incumbent (John Hall) lives in the very north of the district, in Dover Plains. NY-19 is now entirely to the east of the Hudson river, and it includes White Plains, Scarsdale, and Mount Vernon, as well as part of Yonkers and a bit of the North Bronx. Fully 63% of the district will be new to Hall, so he could theoretically face a primary from someone who lives in southern Westchester county, but Hall should be reasonably well suited for the new NY-19.

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NY-17

Incumbent: Elliot Engel (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	57%	13%	4%	23%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	72%	28%
New District	61%	38%
Change	-11%	+10%

NY-17 becomes substantially more Republican, but not so much as to put Elliot Engel in any real jeapordy. Mount Vernon and part of the Bronx are traded for part of Orange County and an expanded piece of Rockland County. This district would be reasonably safe for most Democrats, and should be even more safe for Engel.

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NY-18

Incumbent: Nita Lowey (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	59%	16%	4%	19%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	62%	38%
New District	62%	37%
Change	%	-1%

Finally we come to NY-18, which is now a hybrid Westchester, Long Island, and Bronx district. But mostly, it is a Long Island Sound district. despite helping to dilute competitive and Republican leaning territory on Long Island, this new NY-18 is actually very slightly more Democratic than the previous version. From Nita Lowey’s home in Harrison (in Westchester County), the 18th travels down Interstate 95 and into the Bronx, where (after picking up some choice Democratic precincts), it crosses into Queens via the Throgs Neck and Bronx-Whiteside bridges. Via the Cross Island Parkway, NY-18 crosses into Nassau County, where it picks up suburbs around Glen Cove while skirting along the coast. It continues to skirt along the Long Island Sound into Suffolk County, where it picks up McCain voting Smithtown, keeping those voters out of NY-01 and NY-02. This district substantially different from the current NY-18, but Lowey should be fine – she previously represented part of the Bronx, and should feel quite at home in northern Long Island as well.

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Long Island

On Long Island, my goal was not just to safely eliminate GOP leaning NY-03, but to do so while simultaneously avoiding the creation of anything that Republicans would have a chance of winning in anything other than a very strong GOP wave year. Through creative line drawing, the least Democratic district on Long Island is now NY-01 (57% Obama), while all the other districts voted at least 60% for Obama. It would certainly be possible to draw more compact districts on Long Island, but I doubt it would be possible to draw districts that are much more compact but are all equally Democratic. I tried to maximize Democratic strength without touching anything beyond Queens, and I think I achieved that about as well as can be done.

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NY-01

Incumbent: Tim Bishop (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	75%	10%	2%	10%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	52%	48%
New District	57%	43%
Change	+5%	-5%

NY-01 swings 10 points Democratic, thanks to some help from Lowey in NY-18 (taking Smithtown) and Steve Israel in NY-02 (taking part of Brookhaven). To make up the population lost to those districts, NY-01 heads west along the barrier islands on the south of Long Island to pick up Democratic voters in Long Beach and the Rockaways. The result is a Democratic district rather than a swing district, though NY-01 could still be competitive under some conceivable circumstances.

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NY-02

Incumbent: Steve Israel (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	79%	5%	2%	13%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	56%	43%
New District	59%	40%
Change	+3%	-3%

That NY-02 helps NY-01 to become more Democratic does not necessarily mean that NY-02 has to become less Democratic. In fact, this version of NY-02 becomes a net of 6% more Democratic as well. It does so by ceding some of the more GOP friendly parts of Brookhaven to NY-05, and extending just a bit further into Nassau County to pick up strongly Democratic precincts around Hempstead. Steve Israel should have no trouble winning this district, even if Pete King were to attempt to run in it.

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NY-04

Incumbent: Carolyn McCarthy (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	58%	19%	6%	13%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	58%	41%
New District	61%	39%
Change	+3%	-2%

Remember, there’s no NY-03 on Long Island any more (it’s now Massa’s district), so we skip straight to NY-04. Like NY-01 and NY-02 before it, NY-04 becomes more Democratic. It does this even while taking a pretty big bite out of King’s old district. It does this by giving up the biggest McCain voting parts of the current NY-04 (around Garden City) to NY-09, while moving into Queens, picking up areas on the periphery of the current NY-06. I also sent a finger north for the purpose of picking up McCarthy’s home in Mineola, though I am not sure if I included the right precincts or not. Pete King should live in NY-06 now, but it would probably make the most sense for him to try running in this district, if he bothered to run at all. This would set up a McCarthy-King matchup which just happens to be rigged very much in McCarthy’s favor. With King out of the picture, there would be no Republican US Representatives left on Long Island.

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NY-05

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	53%	4%	22%	17%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	63%	36%
New District	61%	38%
Change	-2%	+2%

NY-05 becomes only modestly more Republican. It stretches all the way from Huntington in Suffolk County to Astoria in western Queens. If NY-05 were sent up to the Bronx instead of Astoria, it could actually be even more Democratic (and NY-07 could become a more purely Queens based district), but I decided against that on the grounds that there was really very little need to alter the basic arrangement of Crowley’s district. Ackerman should be just fine in this district, and in the unlikely event that King tries to run in NY-05, Ackerman should be able to easily beat him.

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NY-06

Incumbent: Gregory Meeks (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	41%	50%	1%	5%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	89%	11%
New District	69%	31%
Change	-20%	+20%

NY-06 is really more of an NYC district, but I am including it under the Long Island heading because of the important role it plays in the demolition of Pete King’s district. NY-06 swings massively towards the GOP by a net of 40%, but is still an extremely safe Democratic district. In the east, NY-06 starts in the middle of Brooklyn, taking a nice big bite of African American voters from the heart of the current NY-10 and NY-11. The reason for sending NY-06 into Brooklyn is to pick up as many black voters there as possible while also keeping NY-10 and NY-11 as VRA districts, for the purpose of leaving a larger number of African American Democratic voters free in Queens to help make NY-01, NY-04, NY-09 more Democratic.

Through a thin 1 precinct wide corridor, NY-06 enters Jamaica Bay, and comes out on the other side at JFK International Airport. From there, it picks up just enough African Americans to make the district black majority (but no more than are strictly necessary), reenters Jamaica Bay, and comes out at Inwood. It then picks up a few of the more Republican precincts in the Rockaways. It may or may not pick up Meeks’ home. If it does not include his home and it is necessary to include his home, it should be just a matter of switching a few precincts between NY-01 and NY-06 to fix the issue.

In Nassau County, the NY-06 heads steadily East along the South Shore of Long Island, picking up the most Republican precincts it can find along the way, often traveling through a nice narrow 1 precinct corridor. Naturally the most heavily Republican parts of Pete King’s old district (around Massapequa) are included in NY-06.

NY-06 continues east into Suffolk county, where it continues to pick up all of the most Republican precincts that it can find, most of which used to be in NY-03. The result is a black majority VRA district which just so happens to contain Pete King’s home and all of the strongest GOP parts of his old district. I don’t know how this could possibly have happened. Surely it was entirely coincidental, accidental, and unintended.

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New York City

New York City is something of a tangled mess, particularly in Brooklyn and Queens. To some extent that is unavoidable because of the requirements of the voting rights act. But in some cases I went beyond that (for example, by giving NY-13 the most Democratic possible parts of Brooklyn) for partisan gain. Manhattan and the Bronx are relatively un-gerrymandered, because it is not really necessary to do so in order to make nearby districts more Democratic.

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NY-09

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	50%	8%	16%	19%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	55%	45%
New District	62%	37%
Change	+7%	-8%

NY-09 both helps out with making the Long Island seats more Demacratic and itself becomes more Democratic (or at least more Obama friendly). It is now a Queens-Nassau County seat rather than a Queens-Brooklyn seat. In Queens the district consists of much of the area around Jamaica, liberal Jewish areas around Forest Hills, and some other Democratic areas from the old NY-06 and NY-05. As mentioned previously, it crosses into Nassau County to pick up the most strongly Republican parts of the old NY-04. The Jewish population may have declined somewhat, but Weiner should be fine in this new district.

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NY-10

Incumbent: Ed Towns (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	28%	50%	3%	16%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	91%	9%
New District	80%	19%
Change	-11%	+10%

I challenge you to tell me precisely what sort of serpentine monster NY-10 looks like. It meanders all around Brooklyn, picking up just enough African Americans to make it a black majority district, while also picking up all of the most Republican precincts that it can find. Ed Towns probably lives in this district. If not, it should be easy to draw him in.

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NY-11

Incumbent: Yvette Clarke (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	28%	50%	3%	16%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	91%	9%
New District	77%	22%
Change	-14%	+13%

Like NY-10, NY-11 is shamelessly gerrymandered, combining African American neighborhoods with Orthodox Jewish and McCain precincts, meandering as much as is necessary, and then meandering even more than that. Yvette Clarke should have no difficulty winning in this district.

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NY-12

Incumbent: Nydia Velázquez (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	22%	7%	16%	51%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	86%	13%
New District	75%	24%
Change	-9%	+11%

Hispanic population growth has been high enough that it is very easy to meet the VRA requirements for NY-12. The district no longer has to cross into Manhattan and no longer has to go as much into Brooklyn – this district is now mostly in Queens. There is also enough room to spare for it to pick up a pretty good helping of less Democratic and predominantly white precincts from Anthony Weiner and Gary Ackerman without lowering the Hispanic percentage too much. Velázquez remains completely safe.

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NY-13

Incumbent: Michael McMahon (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	64%	9%	6%	19%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	49%	51%
New District	62%	37%
Change	+13%	-14%

NY-13 still includes all of Staten Island. It still crosses the Verrazano Narrows bridge to get to Brooklyn. But from there, it heads due north, through Sunset Park and towards the area around Carroll Gardens. The Brooklyn portion of the district is now very heavily Democratic (90% for Obama), and that makes the district as a whole pretty safely Democratic. As it turns out, it is not even necessary to send NY-13 into Manhattan in order to swing NY-13 27 points in the Democratic direction, from a McCain district to a 62% Obama district. All you have to do is mix up which bit of Brooklyn Staten Island is combined with.

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NY-07

Incumbent: Joseph Crowley (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	44%	13%	7%	32%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	79%	20%
New District	76%	24%
Change	-3%	+4%

NY-07 remains a Queens-Bronx hybrid district. The Triborough bridge connects the pieces. Though some areas (e.g. Astoria and Greenpoint from NY-14) are new, much of the district is basically the same. Crowley himself could live in either NY-05, NY-12, or NY-07, but if he does not live in NY-07, it would be easy to draw him in. Regardless, he is safe.

I should also note that it is quite easy to turn NY-07 into a plurality Hispanic or even a majority Hispanic district, without even touching NY-12 or using Red Hook/Sunset Park (now in NY-13), simply by exchanging some territory with some combination of NY-14 (the Lower East Side), NY-16 (pretty much any part of the district), and/or NY-15 (by either heading into Northern Manhattan directly or by pushing NY-16 further into Manhattan). Though Crowley might be able to win such a district in a Democratic primary, it would not really be “incumbent protection” for him. But it would be good for Hispanic voting rights, and there will very probably be controversy over how NY-07 is redistricted, and how the Hispanic population is dealt with.

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NY-08

Incumbent: Jerold Nadler (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	58%	4%	20%	14%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	74%	26%
New District	68%	32%
Change	-3%	+4%

NY-08 remains a Manhattan/Brooklyn hybrid, though only 1/7 of the district is in Manhattan, while 6/7 are in Brooklyn. Even without the Manhattan part of the district, NY-08 voted 61% for Obama. Because Jerold Nadler lives in the Upper West Side, he unfortunately no longer lives in his district. I would suggest that he think about moving to Brooklyn. This is the only case where I drew a Democratic incumbent out of their district. Other than that, Nadler is fine. His district is a little bit less Democratic, but he is in no danger.

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NY-14

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	65%	4%	15%	13%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	78%	21%
New District	80%	19%
Change	+2%	-2%

Maloney’s NY-14 contracts entirely within Manhattan and becomes slightly more Democratic.

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NY-15

Incumbent: Charlie Rangel (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	29%	30%	4%	35%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	93%	6%
New District	91%	8%
Change	-2%	+2%

NY-15 gives up heavily Hispanic parts of northern Manhattan to the 16th district, and extends southwards into the upper West Side. This reduces the Hispanic population a bit, and though it is still a plurality Hispanic district, these changes probably slightly increase effective African American “control” of the district. If the ethics issues are cleared up, Rangel is safe. If not, it’s possible he faces trouble in a Democratic primary.

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NY-16

Incumbent: Jose Serrano (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	5%	26%	2%	65%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	95%	5%
New District	94%	6%
Change	-1%	+1%

NY-16 extends into northern Manhattan, but otherwise remains firmly anchored in the Bronx. This district becomes slightly more Republican, which is assuredly good news for John McCain and the Republican Party, and bad news for Jose Serrano. How can Serrano be expected to win when there is a full 17% (relative) percent increase in the number of Republican voters in his district?