Tag: NY-25
What is going on in NY-25?
Well what a topsy turvy race this has been. On election night we thought that Maffei had it in the bag, only to discover, when all 4 counties that make up NY-25 reported all precincts, that the Republican candidate was in fact in front by 684 votes!
Below the fold for more……..
Now almost a week after election day it seems that about 11,000 absentee ballots were distributed across the 25th. Final returns won’t be known for at least another week.
What we do know is this:
Election day numbers (D/R):
Cayuga – 959(35.4%)/1748(64.6%)
Monroe – 16426(45.1%)/19987(54.9%)
Onondaga – 72323(53.7%)/62419(46.3%)
Wayne – 9191(37.3%)/15429(62.7%)
Election day totals 98899(49.8%)/99583(50.2%)
Absentees issued (final total)/returned (as of last wednesday night)
Cayuga – 148/117
Monroe – 1660/1243
Onondaga – 8154/5578
Wayne – 1683/1226
TOTALS – 11654/8154
So lets test three scenarios:
1) Vote %’s remain as they were on election day and absentees as per last wednesday night (highly unlikely) then the vote totals will be (D/R):
Cayuga – 1000/1824
Monroe – 16985/20671
Onondaga – 75432/65068
Wayne – 9651/16212
TOTALS – 103068/103775
2) Vote %’s remain as they were on election day but absentee return rate is 100%(also unrealistic)
Absentee returns:
Cayuga – 148/148
Monroe – 1660/1660
Onondaga – 8154/8154
Wayne – 1683/1683
TOTALS – 11654/11654
Votes (D/R)
Cayuga – 1011(35.4%)/1844(64.6%)
Monroe – 17175(45.1%)/20898(54.9%)
Onondaga – 76702(53.7%)/66194(46.3%)
Wayne – 9819(37.3%)/16484(62.7%)
TOTALS – 104707/105420
3) Absentee returns increase by 5% and Maffei Onondaga vote increases by .5%
Absentee returns:
Cayuga – 148/124
Monroe – 1660/1326
Onondaga – 8154/5986
Wayne – 1683/1310
TOTALS – 11654/8746
Votes (D/R)
Cayuga – 1003/1828
Monroe – 17024/20715
Onondaga – 76742/65160
Wayne – 9680/16250
TOTALS – 104449/103953
Maffei by 496.
So what does this mean?
Simply put the only way for Maffei to win is to get a higher percentage of the absentee vote than he did the election day vote. A high absentee return will not by itself get him over the line.
Obviously the most likely way for him to make up enough votes is in Onondaga county, the largest part of the district, and the only county he won.
Can he do it? Time will tell. I think he can by the way as absentees tend to trend toward incumbents as compred to election day votes (as a rule of thumb).
Your thoughts?
Over-Time
Farenthold is grandson of Frances “Sissy” Farenthold, a Democrat who served two terms in the state House and ran unsuccessfully for governor in 1972. That same year, she finished second in balloting to become George McGovern’s vice presidential candidate at the Democratic convention.
NY-25: Buerkle Takes the Lead
The losses may not be over:
With the recent update of election results from Wayne County, it appears Republican Ann Marie Buerkle has edged ahead of Democrat Dan Maffei in the race for the 25th District Congressional Seat.
Prior to the release of Wayne County’s preliminary results, Maffei had led Buerkle by about 3,000 votes. Now, Buerkle leads by less than 1,000 votes with roughly 6,000 absentee ballots remaining to be counted.
Oy. This could take a while, though – absentees aren’t due until November 9th (and military absentees on the 24th). 8,371 absentee ballots have been received so far (out of 11,645 that were mailed out). Sounds like we’ll have to let this one grease for at least a few more days.
SSP Daily Digest: 10/19 (Morning Edition)
What better way to celebrate SSP’s seventh birthday than to give you another firehose blast of polls?
AL-02: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for the DCCC (10/9-12, likely voters, 9/26-28 in parens):
Bobby Bright (D-inc): 51 (52)
Martha Roby (R): 39 (43)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
AR-01: Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/13-16 in parens):
Chad Causey (D): 44 (46)
Rick Crawford (R): 42 (44)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
AR-01: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):
Chad Causey (D): 34 (32)
Rick Crawford (R): 42 (48)
Ken Adler (G): 4 (4)
Undecided: 20 (20)
(MoE: ±4.7%)
AR-02: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):
Joyce Elliott (D): 38 (35)
Tim Griffin (R): 50 (52)
Lance Levi (I): 3 (3)
Lewis Kennedy (G): 3 (1)
Undecided: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±4.6%)
AR-03: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/25 in parens):
David Whitaker (D): 21 (31)
Steve Womack (R): 59 (55)
Undecided: 20 (14)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
AR-04: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/25-26 in parens):
Mike Ross (D-inc): 52 (49)
Beth Anne Rankin (R): 34 (31)
Joshua Drake (G): 3 (4)
Undecided: 11 (16)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
CA-47: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Van Tran (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):
Loretta Sanchez (D-inc): 39
Van Tran (R): 39
Ceci Iglesias (I): 5
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±5.7%)
FL-Sen: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Kendrick Meek (D): 22
Marco Rubio (R): 39
Charlie Crist (I): 31
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±4.4%)
FL-Gov: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Alex Sink (D): 45
Rick Scott (R): 38
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Misc.: In the AG race, Pam Bondi (R) leads Dan Gelber (D), 38-30. Also, a poll by Voter Survey Service (aka Susquehanna) for the right-wing Sunshine State News site has Adam Putnam (R) leading Scott Maddox (D) in the Ag Comm’r race, 40-35. Tea Party candidate Ira Chester takes 14%.
MA-Gov: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Charlie Baker (10/11-13, likely voters, no trendlines):
Deval Patrick (D-inc): 35
Charlie Baker (R): 42
Tim Cahill (I): 10
(MoE: ±3.5%)
MA-10: MassINC Polling Group for WGBH (10/13-15, likely voters incl. leaners, no trendlines):
William Keating (D): 46
Jeffrey Perry (R): 43
Other: 5
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±4.9%)
MI-Gov: Foster McCollum White and Baydoun Consulting (D) (PDF) (10/7, likely voters, no trendlines):
Virg Bernero (D): 37
Rick Snyder: 50
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±2.1%)
MO-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) (PDF) for Robin Carnahan (10/17-18, likely voters, 8/14-15 in parens):
Robin Carnahan (D): 41 (38)
Roy Blunt (R): 46 (45)
Jerry Beck (C): 3 (5)
Jonathan Dine (L): 3 (3)
Undecided: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
NM-Gov: SurveyUSA for KOB-TV (10/12-14, likely voters, 5/23-25 in parens)
Diane Denish (D): 42 (43)
Susana Martinez (R): 54 (49)
Undecided: 4 (8)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Note: Among the 13% of respondents who say they have already voted, Martinez has a 60-36 lead.
NY-25: Siena (10/10-12, likely voters, no trendlines):
Dan Maffei (D-inc): 51
Ann Marie Buerkle (R): 39
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Note: Maggie Haberman tweets that Karl Rove’s American Crossroads plans to get involved here.
NY-Gov: New York Times (PDF) (10/10-15, likely voters, no trendlines):
Andrew Cuomo (D): 59
Carl Paladino (R): 24
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±3%)
OR-04: Grove Insight (D) for Peter DeFazio (10/11-12, likely voters, no trendlines):
Peter DeFazio (D-inc): 53
Art Robinson (R): 39
(MoE: ±4.9%)
OR-05: Moore Information (R) for Scott Bruun (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):
Kurt Schrader (D-inc): 40
Scott Bruun: 44
(MoE: ±5.7%)
PA-15: Muhlenberg (PDF) (10/5-13, likely voters, 9/11-16 in parens):
John Callahan (D): 32 (38)
Charlie Dent (R-inc): 49 (49)
Jake Towne (I): 5 (3)
Undecided: 13 (10)
(MoE: ±5%)
UT-Gov: Dan Jones & Associates for the Deseret News/KSL-TV (10/11-14, “active voters,” 10/7-13 in parens):
Peter Corroon (D): 33 (31)
Gary Herbert (R-inc): 58 (52)
Undecided: 6 (13)
(MoE: ±4%)
Note: The Deseret News says that Dan Jones has also done polling for Herbert. Should we be regarding them as an (R) pollster?
UT-Gov: UtahPolicy.com/Western Wats (9/30-10/3, likely voters, no trendlines):
Peter Corroon (D): 27
Gary Herbert (R-inc): 58
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±4%)
Note: Dan Jones also has UT-Sen numbers. UtahPolicy.com also has UT-Sen, UT-01, and UT-03 numbers.
VA-05: Roanoke College (10/5-14, likely voters, no trendlines):
Tom Perriello (D-inc): 40
Rob Hurt (R): 46
Jeffrey Clark (I): 1
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.1%)
WI-Gov: St. Norbert College (PDF) for Wisconsin Public Radio (10/12-15, likely voters, 3/23-31 in parens):
Tom Barrett (D): 41 (28)
Scott Walker (R): 50 (44)
Undecided: 6 (17)
(MoE: ±5%)
Margins & Errors: The Fix publishes an alleged WA-Sen poll without either field dates or sample size… Bill Kristol (yeah, that Bill Kristol) claims he has his hands on an OH-10 poll – he has the n, but won’t say the pollster’s name, who paid for the poll, or when it was taken… Pollster.com has a PDF from ccAdvertising with numbers for WV-Sen, WV-01, and WV-03 – but not only does ccA report to hundredths of a percent, they get taken to the woodshed by Mark Blumenthal for refusing to divulge the poll’s sponsor
SSP Daily Digest: 10/11 (Afternoon Edition)
• CO-Sen: This probably doesn’t count as an October Surprise since it made a big media impression five years ago, but it’s suddenly popped back into view, and making things dicier for Ken Buck, already on the wrong end of a sizable gender gap in the polls. Buck refused to prosecute a rape case as Weld Co. DA five years ago (despite the police having recommended charges), and the alleged victim is now back in the news. She has a taped recording of their meeting (transcript available at the link) in which he seems to blame the victim and suggest that the case wouldn’t pass muster with a jury.
• FL-Sen: Mason-Dixon (10/4-6, likely voters, 9/20-22 in parens):
Kendrick Meek (D): 21 (23)
Marco Rubio (R): 42 (40)
Charlie Crist (I): 27 (28)
(MoE: ±4%)
With Marco Rubio way ahead, it looks like a Kendrick Meek dropout (rumored on Friday) and a cobbling-together of some sort of Meek/Crist hybrid cyborg would be the only way for the non-Rubio forces to get an advantage in this race. However, Meek’s definitely not acting like a man who’s dropping out, if getting the president of the United States to cut a radio ad for you is any indication.
• WV-Sen: Remember that “hicky” ad that the NRSC ran, and then promptly got apologetic over, once the casting call instructions got leaked? (I know, that was last week, a lifetime ago in politics…) Now it sounds like it just kept running anyway, through last Friday for several days after the story broke, despite promises to take it down.
• NM-Gov: Yep, this is definitely the most over-polled, or at least over-internal-poll-leaked, race around. Today it’s Diane Denish’s turn to retaliate, and she’s out with another poll from one of her apparently two pollsters, Third Eye Strategies, with a 46-46 tie (a little stale, taken 9/21-23). I think we get the general idea, already: Denish sees a tie, Susana Martinez sees a high-single-digits lead for herself, public pollsters see something in between. (UPDATE: That’s odd… we reported this poll several weeks ago. Not sure why it’s back in the news today.)
• CA-47: This is the kind of unity that Loretta Sanchez (last seen alienating her district’s small but politically active Vietnamese community with an ill-advised remark) probably doesn’t like to see: apparently there was a major rift with the Vietnamese Republican community that just got sealed up, as long-time Van Tran rival Janet Nguyen (an Orange County councilor) gave a late-game endorsement to Tran.
• CT-02, CT-03: Merriman River Group hits the quinella in Connecticut, with polls of the two House races in the Nutmeg State that aren’t interesting. In the 2nd, despite getting some touting when she got in the race, GOPer Janet Peckinpaugh is making little impression against Joe Courtney, trailing 55-41. And in the 3rd, Rosa DeLauro is the state’s safest Dem, leading Jerry Labriola 58-37.
• FL-22: Endorsements from primary challengers, especially at this stage in the game, are interesting only when they go to the guy from the other party. But that’s what’s happening in the 22nd, where the guy who lost to Allen West, David Brady, gave his backing to Democratic incumbent Ron Klein today. (So too did several minor-league local elected GOPers, including Palm Beach mayor Jack McDonald.) Says Brady, apparently from the sane wing of the GOP (to the extent that the Palm Beach Post endorsed him in the primary): “I ran against Allen West. I debated him and I can tell you: Allen West is too extreme for this community.”
• MS-04: Dueling polls in the 4th, where everything still averages out to a Democratic lean but unfortunately this is looking like one more real race. GOP state Rep. Steven Palazzo offered a poll a few weeks ago saying incumbent Gene Taylor led by only 4, and now Taylor says, no, he’s leading by 8 (without giving us any other useful information, like the toplines, let alone the pollster or dates). Hmmm, that’s only a difference of four points, so why show your hand, especially in such haphazard fashion? Somehow I don’t think Taylor would be a very good poker player.
• NY-22, NY-25: Bill Clinton showing up in upstate New York to stump on behalf of Dan Maffei, that’s not a surprise, as this race seems to be competitive. But also Maurice Hinchey in the 22nd? We haven’t gotten any smoke signals out of that district before, but that’s an indication that something may bubbling under here. (It’s a D+6 district, and Hinchey barely won in ’94.)
• OH-01: One more unfortunate though unsurprising triage decision to report: Steve Driehaus seems to have run out of time at the DCCC, who are canceling their remaining ad buy in the Cincinnati market for the next two weeks. The deadline for reservations cancellations is coming up soon, so we’ll soon know who else gets the shortest straw drawn for them.
• PA-10: After seeing a incumbent Chris Carney up by single digits in a recent public poll from Lycoming, GOP challenger Tom Marino rummaged around in his poll drawer and pulled out one from the Tarrance Group giving him a 47-42 lead on Carney. (No word from the Fix on the dates, though.)
• TN-04: One last GOP internal to throw into the mix: a POS survey (from 9/27-28) on behalf of Scott DesJarlais shows him tied with Dem incumbent Lincoln Davis, 42-42. We haven’t seen any public polling of this race (and may not, as the NRCC doesn’t seem to be pushing this one hard, maybe on the off chance that it’s the kind of district that’ll flip in a wave regardless of what they do), but Davis claimed an 11-point lead in a late August internal.
• House: If you’re thinking that it seems like there are a lot more races in the “Tossup” and “Lean” categories this year, you’re not alone. Nate Silver quantifies various ways in which there are way more competitive races this year than in other recent cycles, including number of races where there are polls within single-digits, where there are polls period, and where there are major financial contributions.
• Redistricting: This is an interesting, if counterintuitive, piece from HuffPo on redistricting, which proposes that we’ll be in better shape in 2010 redistricting than 2000 redistricting because (based on projected gubernatorial and state legislative outcomes) we’ll have more control over the process in more important states: oddly he leaves out California, but also including Florida, Illinois, Michigan, and Virginia (all states where there was a GOP trifecta last time), and Minnesota and New York (where we might get the trifecta this time)… while the states where the GOP will improve its position aren’t as large (Alabama, Indiana, Tennessee… with Georgia the most significant one). The article also gets into the nitty-gritty of where the population growth within the fast-growing states has occurred (i.e. among minorities).
• Polltopia: You might have noticed that Political Wire briefly had some Senate polls up today from somebody I’ve never heard of before, called “TCJ Research.” Those polls mysteriously vanished after Nate Silver, vanquisher of bogus pollsters, showed up on the scene with a simple tweet:
A WordPress blog getting ~500 hits a day on posts like “October Giveaway: 32 Gigabyte Apple iPad!” suddenly commissions 5 polls? Not likely.
• SSP TV:
• IL-Sen: Two different ads from the DSCC attacking Mark Kirk, hitting him for his House voting record and also revisiting Kirk’s misrememberment of his military record
• NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall’s finally out with a TV spot, going after Richard Burr for helping to break the economy
• WV-Sen: While John Raese nods to the ‘hick’ ad semi-apologetically before changing the subject back to Washington Dems, Joe Manchin seems to be trying to out-hick the hick ad by touting his pro-gun and anti-environment credentials in one fell swoop by (I kid you not) shooting a copy of the cap-and-trade bill
• IL-Gov: The most famous Illinoisian, Barack Obama, cuts a radio spot on behalf of Pat Quinn
• RI-Gov: The DGA pounds Lincoln Chafee one more time from the right, accusing him of being a tax-hiking hippy
• FL-22: Ron Klein moves past the boring fixation on Allen West’s tax liens and onto the really juicy stuff about 2nd Amendment remedies
• MN-06: Taryl Clark hits Michele Bachmann on Social Security
• PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper touts her pro-life credentials in her new ad, explaining her siding with the Stupak bloc on health care reform
• VA-02: The DCCC’s IE unit points the “hypocrite” arrow at Scott Rigell, for making hundreds of thousands of dollars off “Cash for Clunkers”
• WI-08: Ditto the DCCC ad in the 8th, where they hit Reid Ribble for making hundreds of thousands of dollars for his roofing business off stimulus projects
• Rasmussen:
• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 49%, Tom Foley (R) 44%
• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 47%, Rick Scott (R) 50%
• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 19%, Marco Rubio (R) 50%, Charlie Crist (I) 25%
• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 41%, Nathan Deal (R) 50%
• GA-Sen: Michael Thurmond (D) 38%, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 53%
• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 40%, Tom Emmer (R) 38%, Tom Horner (I) 15%
• NE-Gov: Mike Meister (D) 24%, Dave Heineman (R-inc) 66%
• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 44%, Kelly Ayotte (R) 51%
• NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 43%, Susana Martinez (R) 52%
• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 40%, Brian Sandoval (R) 53%
• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 48%, Chris Dudley (R) 46%
• SD-Gov: Scott Heidepriem (D) 33%, Dennis Daugaard (R) 57%
• TX-Gov: Bill White (D) 42%, Rick Perry (R-inc) 53%
• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 46%, Dino Rossi (R) 49%
• Angus-Reid: Some of you might have gotten excited about the California numbers offered up today by Angus-Reid (a well-established Canadian pollster, but apparently making their first foray into the States). Well, don’t, because they’re using an RV model, and more importantly, it’s an Internet sample. (Now presumably there’s some scientific selection behind it, not just a “click here!” banner ad, but we’re highly skeptical nonetheless, especially since that seemed to produce notably pro-Dem results in California.)
• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 53%, Meg Whitman (R) 41%
• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 55%, Carly Fiorina (R) 39%
• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 46%, John Kasich (R) 48%
• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 42%, Rob Portman (R) 53%
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Polls
The boys down at SSP Shipping & Receiving are, frankly, completely overwhelmed with the influx of incoming polling to report. That’s why we gotta dish ’em out with no added frills, bulk-style. Our latest dose:
KY-Sen: Braun Research for cn|2 (10/4-6, likely voters, 8/30-9/1 in parens):
Jack Conway (D): 40 (37)
Rand Paul (R): 43 (42)
Undecided: 17 (20)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
NC-Sen: High Point University (9/25-30, adults, no trend lines):
Elaine Marshall (D): 31
Richard Burr (R-inc): 45
Mike Beitler (L): 4
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±5%)
WI-Sen: Fairbank Maslin for the DSCC (10/4-6, likely voters):
Russ Feingold (D-inc): 48
Ron Johnson (R): 49
(MoE: ±4%)
FL-Gov: Mason-Dixon (10/4-6, likely voters, 9/20-22 in parens):
Alex Sink (D): 44 (47)
Rick Scott (R): 40 (40)
(MoE: ±4%)
OH-Gov, OH-Sen: Suffolk University (10/4-6, likely voters, no trend lines):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 42
John Kasich (R): 46
Dennis Spisak (G): 4
Ken Matesz (L): 2
Undecided: 5Lee Fisher (D): 37
Rob Portman (R): 47
Michael Pryce (I): 4
Undecided: 7
(MoE: ±4.4%)
ME-Gov, ME-01: Maine Center for Public Opinion for Pine Tree Politics (Gov | -01) (10/4-7, likely voters, no trend lines):
Libby Mitchell (D): 29
Paul LePage (R): 30
Eliot Cutler (I): 11
Shawn Moody (I): 5
Kevin Scott (I): 2
Undecided: 24
(MoE: ±3.8%)Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 46
Dean Scontras (R): 38
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±5.3%)
MI-Gov: EPIC MRA (10/3-7, likely voters, 9/11-12 in parens):
Virg Bernero (D): 29 (29)
Rick Snyder (R): 49 (53)
(MoE: ±4%)
CA-18: SurveyUSA for KFSN-TV (10/5-6, likely voters, no trend lines):
Dennis Cardoza (D-inc): 50
Mike Berryhill (R): 44
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±4%)
CA-18: J. Moore Methods for Dennis Cardoza (9/27-29, likely voters):
Dennis Cardoza (D-inc): 53
Mike Berryhill (R): 37
(MoE: ±5%)
ID-01: Moore Information for Raul Labrador (10/5-6, voter screen unspecified, 7/12-13 in parens):
Walt Minnick (D-inc): 37 (37)
Raul Labrador (R): 31 (27)
Dave Olson (I): 6 (4)
Mike Washburn (L): 6 (4)
Undecided/None: 21 (28)
(MoE: ±6%)
IN-07: EPIC-MRA (10/1-3, likely voters):
Andre Carson (D-inc): 50
Marvin Scott (R): 33
Dav Wilson (L): 6
(MoE: ±4.9%)
KS-04: SurveyUSA (10/6-7, likely voters, 9/14-15 in parens):
Raj Goyle (D): 40 (40)
Mike Pompeo (R): 53 (50)
Shawn Smith (L): 3
Susan Ducey (RP): 2 (4)
Undecided: 3 (4)
(MoE: ±4.3%)
MI-15: Rossman Group/Team TelCom (10/4, voter screen unspecified):
John Dingell (D-inc): 40
Rob Steele (R): 44
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±5.6%)
NY-04: McLaughlin & Associates for Fran Becker (10/6, likely voters, 6/10 in parens):
Carolyn McCarthy (D-inc): 46 (45)
Fran Becker (R): 45 (25)
Undecided: 9 (31)
(MoE: ±5.6%)
NY-19: Iona College for RNN-TV/Westchester County Association (10/6, voter screen unspecified):
John Hall (D-inc): 42
Nan Hayworth (R): 42
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±3.5%)
NY-25: McLaughlin & Associates for Ann Marie Buerkle (10/4-5, likely voters, 7/10 in parens):
Dan Maffei (D-inc): 39 (46)
Ann Marie Buerkle (R): 40 (39)
Undecided: 21 (17)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Take that last one with a grain of salt, though — note that directly before the head-to-head top line question, McLaughlin asked if voters would like to send an Obama-supporting Democrat to Congress or a Republican who would provide a “check and balance”.
PA-03: Mercyhurst College (9/22-10/5, registered voters):
Kathy Dahlkemper (D-inc): 37
Mike Kelly (R): 44
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±3.9%)
SSP Daily Digest: 9/8 (Afternoon Edition)
• AK-Sen: It seems like Lisa Murkowski’s meetings with the Libertarian Party didn’t lead to anything conclusive (while David Haase sounded amenable, the state party sounds opposed), as the signals she’s putting out now seem to point more toward a write-in campaign, if anything. According to Roll Call, she’s “strongly considering it” and will have an announcement as early as tomorrow. In case you’re wondering about TX-22-style hilarity ensuing, the Alaska Division of Elections confirms that a voter can spell her name incorrectly and still have the vote count, which makes the prospect of a write-in campaign for Linda Mukrosky somewhat more doable.
• CO-Sen: Ken Buck may have dirty boots, but he’s been busy scrubbing his website sparkly clean. The Michael Bennet camp has been observing lots of minor changes to Buck’s website to make it more mainstream-y, with softer-sounding rewrites on his issues page on Afghanistan, stem cell research, and immigration.
• DE-Sen: In another sign that the GOP primary between Mike Castle and Christine O’Donnell isn’t dialing down, both Castle and the Tea Party Express (on behalf of O’Donnell) are both extending their previous ad buys, starting today and running through next Tuesday’s election. Again, kudos to Hotline’s Jeremy Jacobs, who knows not only the Size Of The Buy but the complete breakdown (Castle, for instance, spent $75K in the Salisbury broadcast market, $27K on statewide cable, and $43K on radio, while the TPX spent $32K on cable only). He also susses out that at the current trajectory, the TPX will reach only slightly past the halfway point on its promise to spend $250K on O’Donnell, unless they want to blow a lot of money at the last minute in the pricey Philadelphia market. Meanwhile, TPM checks out how TPX’s ongoing moneybomb for O’Donnell has been going, who has raised $89K since TPX got involved. Despite O’Donnell’s frequent attacks on Castle’s use of out-of-state money to power his campaign, they highlighted their $250+ donors, and a grand total of one (of 56) was a Delawarean.
• FL-Sen, FL-25: Biden alert! With Kendrick Meek having raised some bucks at a New York appearance with Bill Clinton last night, now he turns his attention to an upcoming fundraiser with the VPOTUS. (Expect to see the usual GOP carping about “Big Hollywood,” seeing as how the fundraiser is in Hollywood. Hollywood, Florida, that is.) 25th District candidate Joe Garcia will also be a beneficiary.
• PA-Sen: The Philadelphia Inquirer has a rundown of Pat Toomey’s past history of earmarks, in of course blatant contradiction with the pledges of austerity that define his current campaign… yet another Republican example of government largesse for me, but not for thee. In his first term in PA-15, Toomey won $9 million in earmarks, including $3 million for one company (Air Products & Chemicals) that then became his single biggest campaign contributor.
• CA-Gov: Steve Poizner seems to have finally gotten the message, if a few months on the late (and tepid) side. The Republican primary loser gave his endorsement to Meg Whitman yesterday… via press release.
• MI-Gov: Local pollster Mitchell Research is out with what appears to be their first poll of the general election in the Michigan gubernatorial race; like most pollsters, they find Republican Rick Snyder with a solid lead. He’s ahead of Democrat Virg Bernero 53-26.
• OH-Gov: Bill Clinton will be in Ohio on behalf of (Hillary endorser) Ted Strickland on the 14th, also the day of his first debate with John Kasich. Clinton will stump for Strickland in both Cleveland and Columbus.
• NC-08: With the DCCC having rolled out a GQR internal poll yesterday giving Larry Kissell a decent lead (48-36) in the 8th (on top of Kissell releasing his own internal in late August with a 49-32 lead), GOP rival Harold Johnson offered up his own poll today to show he’s still in this thing. His poll from POS finds Kissell still leading, but by a more surmountable margin: 39-34.
• NV-03: Politico has details on EMILY’s List weighing into the 3rd, with a two-week TV ad blitz going after Joe Heck on women’s health issues (like his vote against mandated insurance coverage for the HPV vaccine). While the article doesn’t have a link to the ad, let alone the Size Of The Buy, it does have a very interesting look at the advanced micro-targeting they’re using, focusing on very specific TV shows as well as Hulu and Facebook users.
• OH-16: Someone get Jim Renacci a high school history textbook, stat! When asked at the candidates’ first debate what he’d like to do about civil rights, the Republican challenger to John Boccieri retreated to Rand Paul-style teabagger boilerplate, saying “We need to get our federal government out of the way,” and that it was better dealt with as “local issues.” Yeah, because local and state governments in the 50s and 60s were the paragons of tolerance and virtue during the civil rights movement, and that federal government just came in and screwed everything up…
• DGA: If you’ve been wondering what they’re up to at the DGA, they’re out with a strategy memo that outlines the next few months. Wisely, they’re most concerned with the states with the greatest population and hence greatest redistricting impact, meaning that the smaller states with Dem-held open seats (Kansas, Wyoming, etc.) have already probably been on the losing end of their triage decisions.
• TX-St. House: We at SSP have been remiss in focusing on state legislatures in the last few months (for the same reason everyone else has — it’s hard to get good intelligence on them, and there’s too dang much to focus on just at the national level alone), but Burnt Orange Report has done a bang-up job profiling the race for the Texas state House, one of the few legislatures where the Dems are on the offensive and have a slim but legitimate shot at a flip. They’ve written up summaries of the 21 hottest races, all helpfully collected in one place at the link.
• SSP TV:
• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias ad rolling out his biggest gun: backing from Barack Obama
• PA-Sen: Not one but two ads from Pat Toomey ads with pretzel logic about how his time on Wall Street tells him that one shouldn’t bail out Wall Street
• WI-Sen: Ron Johnson ad hits Russ Feingold again for being a career politician
• TX-Gov: Bill White talks about border security
• VT-Gov: Dem group Green Mountain Future hits Brian Dubie on support for keeping local nuclear plant open
• FL-24: First Suzanne Kosmas ad hits Sandy Adams on teh crazy, especially the 17th Amendment
• GA-08: Jim Marshall ad tries to outflank Austin Scott on the right on the immigration issue
• MI-01: DCCC’s 2nd IE ad goes after Dan Benishek on Social Security
• NY-25: Dan Maffei’s first ad is anti-Ann Marie Buerkle, using Sarah Palin endorsement against her
• PA-06: Manan Trivedi’s second ad this week focuses on his time as a military doctor
• Rasmussen:
• AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard (D) 38%, Jan Brewer (R-inc) 60%
• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 42%, Meg Whitman (R) 46%
• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 42%, Carly Fiorina (R) 47%
• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 38%, Rand Paul (R) 51%
SSP Daily Digest: 8/24 (Morning Edition)
“There’s so many options when it comes to privatization. I would have to look at each plan that’s being proposed… but I would certainly consider looking at it.”
Major Pain Ahead for Dem House Incumbents: GOP Pollster
Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R) for the American Action Fund (7/28-8/1, likely voters, MoE: ±4%):
CT-04:
Jim Himes (D-inc): 46
Dan Debicella (R): 42
CT-05:
Chris Murphy (D-inc): 49
Mark Greenberg (R): 39
One complication, though: Greenberg lost his primary to state Sen. Sam Caligiuri.
FL-24:
Suzanne Kosmas (D-inc): 41
Craig Miller (R): 44
NY-20:
Scott Murphy (D-inc): 45
Chris Gibson (R): 40
NY-23:
Bill Owens (D-inc): 41
Matt Doheny (R): 39
NY-25:
Dan Maffei (D-inc): 44
Ann Marie Buerkle (R): 41
PA-03:
Kathy Dahlkemper (D-inc): 38
Mike Kelly (R): 52
PA-10:
Chris Carney (D-inc): 37
Tom Marino (R): 52
PA-11:
Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 41
Lou Barletta (R): 52
PA-12:
Mark Critz (D-inc): 40
Tim Burns (R): 44
VA-05:
Tom Perriello (D-inc): 43
Rob Hurt (R): 49
WV-03:
Nick Rahall (D-inc): 53
“Spike” Maynard (R): 37