Swing State Project – Page 215 – Campaign and Election News

KS-03: Moore (Stephene, That Is) Will Run

Looks like the Dems are going to try to keep it all in the family in the open seat R+3 3rd:

Democratic sources this afternoon tell Prime Buzz that Stephene Moore, wife of the six-term Democratic congressman, will run to succeed her husband this year.

Democrats recently polled the district. The result? “Basically a coin flip,” the source said.

This entry has to be considered good news, in a race that had seemed to be slipping away from the Dems. While I’d expect the DCCC would rather be touting Kansas City, Kansas mayor Joe Reardon (or his predecessor Carol Marinovich, both of whom they pursued), Stephene Moore, who’s never been a candidate before, certainly benefits from sharing a last name with the outgoing Congressman, as well as easy access to all the names in her husband’s fundraising database. There’s no word on when the formal announcement will take place.

RaceTracker Wiki: KS-03

WA-Sen: Murray With 11-Point Edge Over Rossi

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/22-24, likely voters, 2/16-18, 2009 in parentheses):

Patty Murray (D): 51 (53)

Dave Reichert (R): 43 (40)

Undecided: 6 (7)

Patty Murray (D): 52

Dino Rossi (R): 41

Undecided: 7

Patty Murray (D): 54

Don Benton (R): 35

Undecided: 11

Patty Murray (D): 55

Paul Akers (R): 28

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.0%)

There’s been emerging conventional wisdom in the last couple months that Dino Rossi poses a threat to Patty Murray in the Washington Senate race, if he gets in. That seems to have entirely two pillars of support holding that up, though: a couple polls from Rasmussen, and another one from Portland-based Republican internal pollster Moore Insight. Research 2000 has a rather different take: Murray has an 11-point lead on Rossi, who, with a 47/47 favorable (thanks to the heavy exposure of losing two contentious gubernatorial races), really doesn’t have much more room for growth.

Rep. Dave Reichert (who’s generally well-liked and isn’t covered in two-time loser stank) is probably the GOP’s best bet in Washington, and even he comes up short against Murray — in fact, thanks to one-year-old trendlines, we can see there’s been only a small amount of erosion for Murray, either in the matchup against Reichert or in her favorables (52/41 now, 55/40 then), despite all the craziness of the last year. Murray also easily takes care of two of her actually announced GOP opponents, state Sen. Don Benton and businessman Paul Akers (the only candidate to have advertised so far).

RaceTracker: WA-Sen

Analyzing Swing States: Virginia, Part 4

This is the fourth part of a series of posts analyzing the swing state Virginia. It is the second section of two focusing on Northern Virginia, and focuses on analyzing the structural foundation behind NoVa’s Democratic shift. The fifth part can be found here.

Demographics

In many ways, Northern Virginia represents the best America has to offer. As wealthy, diverse, and rapidly growing suburb, it offers the very essence of the American Dream.

More below.

Demographically, Northern Virginia is one of those rare places whose racial composition is representative of America as a whole. In Fairfax County today blacks constitute 9.4% of the population, Hispanics 13.5% (nationally the numbers are 12.3% and 15.1%, respectively). Asians come in at 15.8%, a higher number than the national average.

As has been much noted, Northern Virginia is getting more diverse. In Fairfax County, for instance, the numbers of blacks, Hispanics, and Asians have all increased since the 2000 census – which counted blacks as 8.6%, Hispanics as 11.0%, and Asians as 13.0% of the population.

These changes are especially striking in exurban NoVa. Loudoun County, 2000 was 5.9% Asian and 5.3% Hispanic. Since then those numbers have more than doubled; from 2006-2008, the census estimated Loudoun as 12.3% Asian and 10.1% Hispanic (blacks constituted 7.8% of the county’s population).

Finally, Northern Virginia is very, very, very rich. The median household income in both Fairfax and Loudoun exceeds $100,000; a 2008 census study estimated them as the two wealthiest counties in America (see page 13). More than one-third of individuals over 25 in Arlington County hold graduate degrees, compared with less than 10% of Americans at large. Life expectancy is the highest in the nation.

The Future

Although Northern Virginia continues become more diverse, it is unclear how much more Democratic it can get. Suburbs rarely give a party more than 60% of the vote, and 65% seems to be the upper limit for Democrats. Given that President Barack Obama won 60.12% in Fairfax County, Democrats appear to be near this line.

On the other hand, the suburban metropolis that does break this rule (the Bay Area) has a lot in common with Northern Virginia. Like NoVa, the Bay Area is rich, diverse, and growing. But the Bay is also composed of a majority of minorities; this will not happen anytime soon in Northern Virginia.

Moreover, Virginia is missing the one piece that would truly make it a Democratic stronghold. Democratic suburbs like NoVa often surround poor, astonishingly Democratic cities. The good news is that NoVa does surround such a city – and that city gave Democrats 92.46% of its vote in 2008. The bad news is that the city’s name is Washington D.C.

All this may not matter, however, if Northern Virginia continues its rapid growth. Today the exurbs in Loudoun and Prince Williams are the main sites of development, while Fairfax County’s growth appears to have slowed down. This translates into many more voters:

As Loudoun and Prince Williams become more diverse, moreover, they are been voting ever more Democratic. In 2000 Loudoun voted Republican by a 8.25% margin; in 2008 it voted Democratic by a 15.22% margin.

If Northern Virginia continues growing at this rate – and voting Democratic by a 3-2 margin – Virginia may eventually change into a Democratic-leaning state. This will probably be balanced out as other Democratic states naturally turn Republican-leaning. Nevertheless, adding NoVa to the old Democratic base leaves the Democratic Party in strong shape. That traditional base will be the subject of the next post.

SSP Daily Digest: 3/25 (Afternoon Edition)

• CA-Sen (pdf): The apparently nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California has put out another statewide poll, and the numbers look very similar to those in the Field Poll last week. Barbara Boxer is in a dead heat with Tom Campbell, down 44-43, and not faring much better against Carly Fiorina, where Boxer leads 44-43. (She led Campbell by 4 and Fiorina by 8 two months ago.) Boxer’s doing better against Chuck DeVore, with a 46-40 edge. The big change from the Field Poll is that PPIC finds Fiorina actually in the lead in the GOP primary, the first pollster to see that in a while; she’s up 24-23-8, an improvement from January’s 27-16-8 Campbell edge. Are reluctant social conservatives getting off the fence and behind Fiorina, sensing DeVore isn’t gaining traction? Or did the Demon Sheep ad actually sway some ovinophobic voters?

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway’s on the air with a TV spot in the wake of the health care vote, trying to get some mileage out of Democratic primary opponent Dan Mongiardo’s stated opposition to the bill that passed.

• NY-Sen-B: Wall Street exec David Malpass, fresh off his smashing success as chief economist of Bear Stearns, looks like he’s doubling down on trying to be the GOP nominee to go against Kirsten Gillibrand. He’s promising $1 million of his own money to kick-start his campaign, where he first needs to get out of a primary against Bruce Blakeman and Joe DioGuardi.

• UT-Sen: It’s all still anecdotal, but the preliminary reports for how caucus night went for Bob Bennett sound pretty bad. Observers report strong anti-Bennett sentiment in general, although what might save him is that there was no coalescing behind any of his particular challengers. Turnout was maybe twice that of caucuses two years ago, suggesting a highly-motivated anti-Bennett base.

• CA-Gov (pdf): PPIC also has California gubernatorial numbers, again similar to the last Field poll. Meg Whitman’s outspending of Jerry Brown by a 200:1 margin or so is definitely paying temporary dividends, as she’s leading the gubernatorial race 44-39 (up from a 41-36 Brown lead two months ago). Brown leads Steve Poizner 46-31, basically unchanged from two months ago, suggesting this change is pretty Whitman-specific and not an across-the-boards phenomenon; Whitman leads Poizner 61-11.

• GA-Gov: Republican Governor Sonny Perdue is engaging in a remarkable end-run around Democratic AG Thurbert Baker, appointing a “special attorney general” to join in the suit against the health care reform brought by Republican AGs after Baker refused to do so and called it “political gamesmanship.” If nothing else, the fireworks between Perdue and Baker ought to raise Baker’s profile (who’s currently lagging in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, but might be poised to make an impact if he switched to the mostly-vacant Senate race).

• MA-Gov: Here’s some trouble for independent gubernatorial candidate Tim Cahill: the SEC has charged that John Kendrick, an executive with Southwest Securities, won $14 billion in bond deals after co-sponsoring a fundraiser for Cahill. That’s a violation of federal rules against contributions to officials who oversee bond sales. The SEC says that the Cahill campaign (which is returning the contributions) didn’t break any laws by accepting the money, though.

• OH-Gov, TX-Sen: Two more GOPers who still seem to be charging full speed ahead on “repeal” are Ohio’s John Kasich and, more interestingly, John Cornyn, who’d been cited in Ezra Klein‘s piece yesterday, on the GOP’s rapidly dialed-down rhetoric, as supporting only piecemeal tinkering but now seems to be reversing course again.

• WY-Gov: Whoops, that was a short-lived candidacy-to-be. Wyoming Democrats looking for a gubernatorial candidate are back to square one after attorney (and gubernatorial progeny) Paul Hickey reversed course and said “no” to a run.

• CO-07: Tom Tancredo weighed in with an endorsement in the Republican primary field in the 7th and, guess what… he endorsed the white guy. He gave the nod to former John McCain campaign official Lang Sias, despite Tancredo’s general antipathy toward all things McCain.

• HI-01: State Sen. Colleen Hanabusa is finally making some moves in the special election to replace resigned Rep. Neil Abercrombie. She’s out with her first TV ads, for the all-mail-in election with a May 22 deadline.

• NY-13: More blowback for Rep. Mike McMahon for his “no” vote on HCR, which could cost him the Working Families ballot line and/or get him a primary opponent. NYC council speaker Christine Quinn has backed out of a previously planned fundraiser for McMahon, citing his vote.

• SC-05: The NRCC seems to be feeling confident about state Sen. Mick Mulvaney, their challenger to Rep. John Spratt in the reddish 5th. They’ve promoted him to the 2nd level (“Contender”) in their 3-tiered fundraising pyramid scheme for challengers.

• Illinois: We Ask America seems to be taking great pains to confirm that, yes, they really are a legitimate pollster. I don’t know if they’re helping their case by releasing results with two significant digits, but they have a lot of Illinois House race data; we’ll leave it to you to decide how much salt you want to apply. Perhaps weirdest, they have teabagging businessman Joe Walsh leading Melissa Bean in IL-08 by 38.33%-37.61%. They also have leads for GOPers in the 11th (Adam Kinzinger leads Debbie Halvorson 42-30, way worse than Kinzinger’s own recent internal) and the 14th (Randy Hultgren leads Bill Foster 38-36), while Dems lead in the 10th (Dan Seals beats Bob Dold 40-37) and the not-on-the-radar 17th (Phil Hare leads pizza parlor owner Bobby Schilling 39-32).

• CA-Init: It’s been confirmed that the initiative to legalize the possession and sale of marijuana in California has qualified for the ballot in November. A 2009 Field Poll shows such an initiative could actually pass, with 56% of Californians supporting such an initiative. Of course, it’s unclear how such a change in state law would mesh with federal law, but if nothing else, it may help motivate a lot of bong-toting slackers to get off their couches to vote in November who otherwise might not vote (and cast votes for Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer while they’re at it).

• DCCC: Freshman Rep. Jared Polis has been a strong fundraiser (and has his own fortune, too), and he’s looking to spread the wealth. His joint fundraising committee, the Jared Polis Majority Fund, has already distributed $400K this spring to the DCCC, to vulnerable incumbents (Frank Kratovil, Betsy Markey, Scott Murphy, Bill Owens, Tom Perriello, Harry Teague, Dina Titus), and to four up-and-comers (Ami Bera, Steve Pougnet, John Carney, and David Cicilline).

• DNC: I guess the DNC is feeling its oats these days, or just figuring that the best defense is a good offense: they’ve doubled the number of GOPers on the receiving end of pro-HCR attack ads for their “no” votes. They’ve added Pat Tiberi, Lee Terry, Dan Lungren, Mary Bono Mack, and Charlie Dent.

• Census: Remember the Census? It’s back! In Pog form!

SSP Daily Digest: 3/25 (Morning Edition)

FL-Sen: Charlie Crist has launched his first TV ad of the campaign, hitting Marco Rubio for being a lobbyist. Dunno that Crist has the cred to make these attacks stick. Rubio’s firing back with an ad that ties Crist to Obama (something that’s more easily done).

LA-Sen: Hah! Awesome! GOP Sen. Tom Coburn, hoping to force Dems into an uncomfortable vote, wants to offer an amendment to the healthcare reconciliation bill that would prohibit insurance coverage of Viagra for convicted sex offenders. The Louisiana Democratic Party put out a press release saying that surely Coburn “would agree that anyone who has admitted or been found guilty of involvement with prostitution should not be covered either.” Zing! Meanwhile, in an act of extreme bravery, Rep. Charlie Melancon says he doesn’t support repealing healthcare reform.

NV-Sen: As Las Vegas Now puts: “It has not been a pleasant two weeks for United State Senate hopeful Jon Scott Ashjian. Three of his personal properties have been served with default notices, his Nevada Tea Party supporters will not come to his aid and national party leaders have denounced him as a fraud.” Click the link for all the details.

WA-Sen: Yesterday we learned that Dino Rossi got jiggy with Michael Steele. Now it turns out that he also paid a visit to NRSC HQ. Wonder if he’ll bite.

AL-Gov: As in Georgia (see GA-12 item below), several leaders of the Alabama African American community are unhappy with Artur Davis’s vote against healthcare reform. State Sen. Hank Sanders of Selma sent an open letter to Artur Davis, criticizing his decision, and TV host Roland Martin also expressed displeasure, saying that Davis “was elected to represent the people in his district in Congress, not a future position that he may or may not get.”

NY-Gov: Newly-minted Republican Parker Griffith may have supported Howard Dean, but even more newly-minted Republican Steve Levy supports… single-payer healthcare insurance? Oh yes, according to a Working Families Party survey he filled out in 2007. Michael Long will be sooo pleased. (H/t Darth Jeff)

PA-Gov: Philly Mayor Michael Nutter will endorse state Sen. Anthony Williams in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. This gives Williams, who just joined the race and trails in the polls, a big shot in the arm, especially if Nutter puts his full machine behind him. (Williams has done quite well in the money race, though, outraising some of his better-known competitors.)

AR-03: A Republican candidate with the perversely appropriate name of Gunner DeLay is calling for “civil disobedience” against healthcare reform. Just what we needed – more incitement, from a former prosecutor, no less. I guess DeLay is trying to make amends for his pro-union past as a state senator.

GA-07: Another Republican is jumping into the field to succeed GOP Rep. John Linder: his former chief of staff, Rob Woodall. He joins state Rep. Clay Cox and Walton County businessman Tom Kirby.

GA-09: The special election date to fill Nathan Deal’s seat has been moved from April 27th to May 11th (run-off: June 8th), in order to give military and overseas voters enough time to submit their ballots.

GA-12: Dem Rep. John Barrow is definitely feeling some heat over his “no” vote on healthcare. Black political leaders, who had generally supported Barrow over the years, are very unhappy with him and are either pulling their endorsements or switching over to his primary opponent, Regina Thomas. African Americans make up a third of the district’s population and approximately 60% of Dem primary voters. Thomas, though, got pasted in a 2008 effort to defeat Barrow and has chump change in her campaign account.

IL-11: GOPer Adam Kinzinger hasn’t gotten the memo, apparently, because he’s going full steam ahead on repealing healthcare reform. The responses to this are so easy it’s ridiculous – which is why Rep. Debbie Halvorson in turn accused Kinzinger of wanting to repeal protections against pre-existing conditions. We could do this all day.

IN-09: A Wilson Research Strategies poll for Republican Mike Sodrel shows him very competitive with Rep. Baron Hill, trailing by just a 43-42 margin. Sodrel also tested the GOP primary, where he looks very strong. He has 46%, compared to 19 for activist Travis Hankins and 13 for attorney Todd Young. (Young is on the NRCC’s Young Guns list.) The poll was conducted a few weeks ago, before the healthcare reform vote.

MD-01: How much does a vote against healthcare reform get you? Dem Rep. Frank Kratovil is going to find out. Despite Kratovil’s two “no” votes, his opponent Andy Harris is charging: “This is Nancy Pelosi’s bill. Her fingerprints are all over it, and Frank Kratovil enabled Nancy Pelosi to be in the position where she is now.” If this line of attack sticks, it’ll show that cringe politics rarely works.

PA-03: Dem Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper’s Some Dude primary opponent, Mel Marin, filed a challenge to keep Dahlkemper off the ballot – and just got his challenge rejected. Supposedly he’ll appeal.

PA-07: The SEIU has backed Dem Bryan Lentz in his bid to win the open 7th CD against GOPer Pat Meehan.

SD-AL: Even though he declined to challenge Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin himself, Steve Hildebrand is trying to help Dr. Kevin Weiland qualify for the Democratic primary. Weiland has to submit 1,250 signatures in just one week’s time, though.

DNC: The DNC is trying out a new message, airing radio ads which ask voters to tell their Republican congressmen: “Hands off our healthcare!” Be very curious to see if these draw any blood – or if this message continues to see use.

Healthcare: SEIU is spending $700K on ads thanking Dems in tough districts for their “yes” votes on healthcare: Tom Periello (VA-05), Dina Titus (NV-03), Betsy Markey (CO-04), John Boccieri (OH-16), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03) and Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL). The local New York chapter will also air ads thanking Scott Murphy (NY-20), Bill Owens (NY-23), Dan Maffei (NY-25), Tim Bishop (NY-01) and Steve Israel (NY-02).

Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 – Post-Filing Deadline Edition

With the filing deadline passed, we are beginning to see how the fields are shaping up for the 2010 elections in California. While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

Breaking news: We now have a registration advantage in Assembly District 5 and are closing in on CA-03!

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
CA-03	Dan Lungren	38.46%	39.04%	R+0.58	O+0.5
CA-24	Elton Gallegly	35.78%	41.53%	R+5.75	O+2.8
CA-25	Buck McKeon	37.42%	39.58%	R+2.16	O+1.1
CA-26	David Dreier	35.64%	40.15%	R+4.51	O+4.0
CA-44	Ken Calvert	34.67%	42.47%	R+7.80	O+0.9
CA-45	Mary Bono Mack	38.02%	41.50%	R+3.48	O+4.6
CA-48	John Campbell	29.36%	44.36%	R+15.00	O+0.7
CA-50	Brian Bilbray	31.33%	39.91%	R+8.58	O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 49 Democrats/29 Republicans/1 Independent (who is term-limited)/1 Vacant (Dem seat which will be filled before Election Day), with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-04	Sam Aanestad	32.78%	43.83%	R+11.05	M+11.8
SD-12	Jeff Denham	49.13%	32.03%	D+17.10	O+17.6
SD-18	Roy Ashburn	31.76%	47.36%	R+15.60	M+23.1
SD-36	Dennis Hollingsworth	28.97%	45.60%	R+16.63	M+14.2

Democrats (5)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-16	Dean Florez	50.41%	32.00%	D+18.41	O+19.5
SD-22	Gilbert Cedillo	58.91%	14.39%	D+43.52	O+58.7
SD-24	Gloria Romero	53.53%	20.72%	D+32.81	O+41.3
SD-34	Lou Correa	44.22%	32.49%	D+11.73	O+16.8
SD-40	Denise Ducheny	46.47%	28.84%	D+17.63	O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-03	Dan Logue	34.52%	39.91%	R+5.39	M+1.6
AD-05	Roger Niello	38.97%	38.05%	D+0.92	O+4.2
AD-25	Tom Berryhill	37.35%	41.70%	R+4.35	M+7.9
AD-26	Bill Berryhill	42.35%	38.88%	D+3.47	O+4.4
AD-30	Danny Gilmore	46.12%	36.12%	D+10.00	O+3.9
AD-33	Sam Blakeslee	35.89%	40.47%	R+4.58	O+1.4
AD-36	Steve Knight	38.92%	39.29%	R+0.37	O+0.8
AD-37	Audra Strickland	35.87%	41.04%	R+5.17	O+3.7
AD-38	Cameron Smyth	36.83%	39.62%	R+2.79	O+4.9
AD-63	Bill Emmerson	37.96%	40.01%	R+2.05	O+4.1
AD-64	Brian Nestande	36.08%	41.95%	R+5.87	O+1.8
AD-65	Paul Cook	36.91%	41.29%	R+4.38	M+4.1
AD-68	Van Tran	32.78%	40.78%	R+8.00	M+2.9
AD-70	Chuck DeVore	30.12%	42.93%	R+12.81	O+3.9
AD-74	Martin Garrick	30.88%	41.17%	R+10.29	O+2.2
AD-75	Nathan Fletcher	30.64%	39.58%	R+8.94	O+4.1

Democrats (15)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-07	Noreen Evans	52.94%	23.47%	D+29.47	O+43.3
AD-09	Dave Jones	56.92%	18.55%	D+38.37	O+49.0
AD-10	Alyson Huber	39.41%	39.18%	D+0.23	O+4.0
AD-15	Joan Buchanan	40.65%	35.70%	D+4.95	O+16.9
AD-20	Alberto Torrico	48.74%	19.90%	D+28.84	O+42.3
AD-21	Ira Ruskin	47.61%	26.40%	D+21.21	O+45.8
AD-23	Joe Coto	51.59%	18.60%	D+32.99	O+44.4
AD-31	Juan Arambula	50.40%	32.35%	D+18.05	O+26.1
AD-35	Pedro Nava	48.03%	27.56%	D+20.47	O+35.6
AD-47	Karen Bass	64.89%	11.14%	D+53.75	O+71.9
AD-50	Hector De La Torre	61.99%	15.82%	D+46.17	O+55.9
AD-76	Lori Saldaña	41.94%	26.52%	D+15.42	O+34.4
AD-78	Martin Block	42.97%	30.97%	D+12.00	O+21.8
AD-80	Manuel Perez	45.74%	35.25%	D+10.49	O+20.7

CA: Non-biased redistricting, a.k.a. Will We Actually Benefit?

Assuming that California neither gains nor loses seats, how would a non-partisan redistricting (a.k.a. as little county/city splitting as possible, although the way CA is on the redistricting app makes pieces appear randomly that shouldn’t be in the district…i’m sorry about that.)

Also, non-biased means no VRA

Here we go: from North to South (Full disclosure: I live in NorCal, and it is much better)

Northern California:

1st: No Incumbent-SWING DISTRICT: 51-46 Obama Blue.

This is what is the real NorCal. Most rural, with lots of forests, the marijuana-growing Emerald Triangle and liberal Humboldt and Mendocino Counties combined with the conservative Sacramento Valley would give this to whichever party has the advantage that year and makes it an R+1 or R+0 district. Redding is the major city, and if the representative hails from there, it’s likely they will be Republican, with Democrats being based on the coast. An astounding (for California) 79% White. Due to this replacing Garamendi’s district, I’ll say it’s R + .5

2nd: Wally Herger-R: 51-47 McCain Green. I guess this district may be contested when Herger retires (he’s in his mid-60’s), but until then, he’s probably fine. The college town of Chico, Herger’s base, and the Lake Tahoe resort area are the liberal parts, while the rural mountains and Sacramento Valley, including Yuba City, are the Republican strongholds. 77% White, this part of California just isn’t that diverse.

Sacramento Area:

3rd: Dan Lungren-R: 53-45 McCain. Purple

Yeah, Lungren doesn’t quite live in the district, but he’s close, and a carpet-bagger anyways (as are McClintock and Garamendi, not sure what’s up with Sacramento-area carpetbaggers). He’ll be fine, with conservative Sacramento Suburbs of Folsom, Rocklin, and Roseville. Also 77% White. Lungren’s safety means R + 1.

4th: Tom McClintock-R: 52-47 Obama. SWING DISTRICT

Red

Elk Grove, a relatively liberal suburb, and more conservative unincorporated Sacramento County combine with some Sierra Country to create another moderate district. McClintock will be up for a fight in 2012, and it could go either way. 66% White, 13% Hispanic. Back to R + .5

5th: Doris Matsui-D: 70-28 Obama. Yellow

Capital city of Sacramento, college town of Davis, plus some suburbs and conservative, rural Woodland. Which way do you think this district will go? Majority minorityMatsui’s happy here. 48% White, 22% Hispanic, 14% Asian, 10% Black. Yup, 4 races at 10% or more.

North Bay Area:

6th: Mike Thompson-D: 67-31 Obama. Teal

Fairfield, Napa, Vallejo, Vacaville. Vacaville is actually quite moderate. The rest aren’t. This district has very little of Thompson’s old territory, but it’s not biggie. 59% White, 18% Hispanic.

7th: Lynn Woolsey-D: 78-20 Obama. Gray

Easily the most liberal majority-white district in the nation. 63% White, 17% Hispanic. Contains Santa Rosa, Petaluma, and upscale Marin County, along with minority-heavy Richmond (take that, VRA). And yes, it’s connected by a bridge.

10th: George Miller-D: 67-31 Obama. Pink

This district stays on one side of the bay, and yes, I know I’m not going in numerical order. Miller still lives here, and that means he’s safe. 63% White, 17% Hispanic, 10% Asian.

SF/Oakland:

8th: Nancy Pelosi-D: 85-13 Obama. periwinkle.

A speaker who just got us health care reform deserves…nearly no change. Actually, that’s fine with her, in this very liberal SF district. 46% White, 29% Asian, 13% Hispanic.

9th: Barbara Lee-D: 88-10 Obama. light blue.

This Black leader gets nearly no change either, but her district was already the most liberal in the state, so it’s OK. Having highly Black Oakland and college town Berkeley will do that for you. 35% White, 25% Black, 18% Asian, 18% Hispanic. So diverse.

East Bay:

11th: Jerry McNerney: 65-33 Obama. light green.

McNerney just got a whole bunch safer, from a swing district to a Democratic one. Back to R + 0. See, redistricting doesn’t really change Northern California, so why can’t we un-gerrymander it?

The Peninsula:

12th: Jackie Speier: 74-24 Obama. blue.

Again, little change in this liberal district. Fun fact: did you know it’s a majority minority district? 45% White, 27% Asian, 20% Hispanic.

Silicon Valley:

13th: Anna Eshoo: 72-26 Obama. reddish

My home district. I’m gonna say Stark retires (his district will get moved) and Eshoo stays on. She’s a great representative. 51% White (VRA will hate me), 24% Asian, 16% Hispanic. This district’s per capita income probably will shrink a bit, too, with some of the East Bay areas.

14th: Mike Honda: 71-27 Obama. ugly color.

And the VRA loses again. This time, 50% White, 24% Asian, 20% Hispanic. Yet, there is an Asian representative anyways, and he’s there to stay in West San Jose.

San Jose:

15th: Zoe Lofgren: 67-32 Obama. orange.

Yes, this district’s weird, but a lot of the Santa Clara County blocks are screwed up, so don’t blame me. Lofgren’s safe, and the district’s Hispanic plurality, at 32%, with 31% White and 30% Asian. East San Jose is the base.

Farr’s District:

16th: Sam Farr: 73-25 Obama. green.

I’m not sure how else to label Santa Cruz but the home of the white liberal: a college town with a beach and liberal marijuana laws, it’s why those conservatives hate California. But this district also contains minority-heavy Monterey County, with Watsonville, Salinas, Gilroy (not in the county, technically), and other areas. It’s still 52% White, but also 36% Hispanic. Farr is safe, although he may retire soon.

Recession Central Valley:

17th: No Incumbent Representative-SWING: 54-44 Obama. Purple.

An open D+1 district. Think it’ll be well-contested in 2012? So do I. 47% White and 30% Hispanic, with a surprisingly high 12% Asian for a Central Valley district, moderate Tracy, Manteca, and Stockton dominate, along with conservative Lodi and Lathrop. Overall, I’d say it’s a toss-up district due to Hispanic turnout, although they may turn out for Obama if he succeeds with immigration reform. This is the new Garamendi district, and so we’re up to R + .5 again.

18th: Dennis Cardoza: 51-48 Obama. yellow.

Blue Dog Cardoza is in for a tough fight as his district is no longer gerrymandered for a Hispanic. At 52% White and 35% Hispanic, Modesto and fast-growing Merced dominate, along with the smaller Turlock. This toss-up means we’re now at R + 1. Former Republican St. Sen. Leader Dave Cogdill could fight Cardoza, as could whoever replaces George Radanovich in CA-19 this year.

Fresno Area:

19th: Devin Nunes: 56-42 McCain. green.

This district is actually the only of the first 3 Valley districts to be majority-minority, at 48% White, and 43% Hispanic, but there is low turnout. Centered in Visalia and Madera, Nunes, who is actually Portugese and not Hispanic, will be fine here.

20th: Jim Costa: 51-48 Obama. pink

Fresno has been known for being conservative, and Clovis even more so, but with the entire city in one district, we can see it is more toss-up. And a toss-up this one will be, meaning the gains are now at R + 1.5. 44% White, 35% Hispanic, and 10% Asian.

More Valley:

21st: No Incumbent Representative: 51-47 Obama. maroon.

The everything-we-couldn’t pick up in the Santa Clara/Monterey County and Central Valley districts-district. If I had to guess, I’d say anyone could win this district. It contains farmland in the valley, Hispanic Hollister, Hanford, and Los Banos, and more white Paso Robles and Atascadero. Overall, it’s 49% White and 41% Hispanic. Due to this being Radanovich’s district, we’re at R + 1 again.

South Valley/Central Coast:

22nd: Kevin McCarthy: 56-42 McCain. brown.

This district is ugly; I’m sorry, a lot of it is the voting districts. The partisan lean is also ugly, but McCarthy’s very conservative, and Bakersfield is a great place for Republicans, as is the smaller Taft. 46% White and 40% Hispanic.

23rd: Lois Capps: 56-42 Obama. light blue.

Technically winnable by a Republican, but it’s a blue district. Instead of Capps being confined to beach towns in one of the ugliest gerrymanders ever, she’s got all of liberal Santa Barbara County, some of the Valley (Tehachapi, California City), and coastal Ventura and Ojai. She’ll win, but the DCCC will have to put some money in when she retires to keep the district. 61% White, 29% Hispanic

24th: Elton Gallegly: 55-44 Obama. purple.

Gallegly’s district just got a bit tougher, and he may retire, he’ll be 68 by Election Day 2012. If not, it’s a toss-up, like his old district, so no change there. Oxnard, Thousand Oaks, Simi Valley, and Camarillo are all included here, with 56% White and 32% Hispanic.

25th: Buck McKeon: 50-48 Obama. rose.

McKeon’s district stays Republican in lean, although Obama won it. Santa Clarita, Lancaster, and Palmdale, the last two desert cities on the other side of the mountains from Los Angeles, are the reasons L.A. County isn’t 85% Democratic like SF. 55% White, 28% Hispanic. When McKeon retires, it may be winnable.

Los Angeles, Part 1:

26th: David Dreier: 61-37 Obama. gray

So, um, yeah, David Dreier is gone. Taking out Cucamonga, adding in Pomona, in other words, un-gerrymandering. Bye-bye, now at R + .5. 48% Hispanic, 28% White, and 16% Asian (many in Walnut). Covina is also in this district.

27th: Brad Sherman: 66-32 Obama. bright green

Sherman doesn’t have anything to worry about, San Fernando Valley district means liberal and 48% Hispanic, 33% White, 11% Asian.

28th: Howard Berman: 72-27 Obama. pinkish.

I really like how these guys are both Jewish, liberal, from L.A., and their names rhyme. Anyways Malibu and L.A. are in this district, and that’s all you need to know. 50% White, 35% Hispanic.

29th: Adam Schiff: 66-32 Obama. greenish-gray.

Here we have Glendale, Pasadena, Burbank, and La Canada Flintridge, but nothing to worry about. 49% White, 26% Hispanic, 13% Asian.

L.A. Part 2:

30th: Henry Waxman: 79-19 Obama. salmon.

Beverly Hills, Hollywood, and Santa Monica. 58% White, 19% Hispanic, 11% Asian. And Democratic. Very Democratic.

31st: Xavier Becerra: 85-13 Obama. yellow.

56% Hispanic, 18% Black, 14% Asian, only 9% White. The least white district in California, I believe. Becerra isn’t white, either, but he is most certainly safe.

32nd: Judy Chu: 77-20 Obama. orange.

Los Angeles, Monterey Park, Alhambra. 64% Hispanic, 21% Asian, and, yes, 10% White. Told you it was more.

33rd: Maxine Waters: 87-12 Obama. dark blue.

Wow, the whites just keep growing. 49% Hispanic, 34% Black, and 11% White. Inglewood and Los Angeles are here, which means so are the Lakers (and the Clippers). As is Waters, as long as she wants.

L.A. Part 3:

34th: Lucille Roybal-Allard: 76-22 Obama. green.

Bell, Bellflower, South Gate, Downey, and a slight piece of Los Angeles make this 79% Hispanic and 10% White. Which party do you think will win?

35th: Whoever replaces Watson or Jane Harman: 73-25 Obama. purple

38% Hispanic, 24% Black, 22% White, and 13% Asian. Does the Blue Dog Jewish woman or the liberal new representative win? I’ll let you decide…and yes, it was accidental that Harman gets knocked out of the House.

36th: Laura Richardson or Linda Sanchez: 60-38 Obama. orange.

OK, there are some conservative areas here, like Torrance, to some degree. But half of Long Beach is here, and so is Lakewood. Richardson, or, more likely, Sanchez, is fine in her 37% White, 35% Hispanic, 15% Asian district.

L.A. Part 4:

37th: Grace Napolitano: 59-39 Obama. bright blue.

This district enters conservative Orange County, but not the areas needed to blunt a liberal district. Half of Long Beach is in here, as is Norwalk, along with Seal Beach and Buena Park, as are members of a 39% White, 34% Hispanic, 18% Asian district.

40th: Loretta Sanchez: 49-49 McCain. maroon.

I have heard Sanchez is a rising star in the party; this is her test. Win a Republican district containing Anaheim, Garden Grove, Westminster, and Fountain Valley, and maybe you could be Senator someday. 40% Hispanic, 33% White, 22% Asian. In the meantime, we’re back to R + 1.5.

L.A. Part 5:

38th: No Incumbent Representative: 67-31 Obama. teal.

Harman’s district ends up here, and so there is no partisan change, but there will be a new representative in this Whittier and Pico Rivera based district. 65% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 15% White.

39th: Ed Royce: 52-46 McCain. pale yellow.

A Republican district, the first in a while, and Royce is all good in Diamond Bar, Fullerton, Nixon’s home of Yorba Linda, and Orange. 48% White, 28% Hispanic, 19% Asian.

Orange County:

41st: John Campbell: 55-43 Obama. gray.

The very conservative Campbell may have some trouble here, to say the least, so we’re back to R + 1, as this is only a swing district. Liberal Irvine, combined with Tustin and Santa Ana, make this 43% Hispanic, 38% White, and 14% Asian, along with maybe a Democratic pickup.

42nd: Dana Rohrabacher: 51-47 McCain. green.

Containing everything with the word beach in it: Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa, Newport Beach, Laguna Beach, etc, along with San Juan Capistrano, Rohrabacher is, sadly, safe here. 73% White, 16% Hispanic may explain the reason why.

Inland Empire:

43rd: Gary Miller: 54-45 Obama. pink.

Miller moving to a swing district means only R + .5. He may lose here, but he may do OK in Rancho Cucamonga, Upland, Chino, and Ontario, the West End of the Inland Empire. 42% Hispanic, 39% White.

44th: Joe Baca: 64-34 Obama. magenta.

Baca is fine in a majority (50%) Hispanic district, along with 29% White and 13% Black. San Bernardino, Rialto, Highland, and Colton are here.

46th: Ken Calvert: 53-45 Obama. salmon.

Calvert is a slight bit more vulnerable now, and may be gone in 2012, as he has some slight corruption issues in Riverside. Corona and very red Norco make up the rest of the district, which is 46% White and 38% Hispanic.

Mojave/Coachella:

45th: Jerry Lewis: 55-43 McCain. blue.

Lewis is lucky enough to get a safe Inland Empire/Mojave district, with conservative Redlands and Yucaipa, along with Hesperia and Victorville and some mountains and desert in the east, plus Yucca Valley, Twentynine Palms, etc. 63% White, 24% Hispanic.

47th: Mary Bono Mack: 50-48 Obama. pink.

A slight bit safer, but still swing. However, Mack is a moderate, and she’ll be fine in this district. It contains Palm Springs, Indio, Hemet, and Coachella and stretches to Arizona. 53% White and 39% Hispanic.

Inland Empire 2:

48th: No Incumbent Representative: 49-49 McCain. orange.

Linda Sanchez’s district had to go somewhere, so here it is, bringing us to R + 1.5. A Republican should win here. Moreno Valley, Lake Elsinore, Temecula. 53% White, 30% Hispanic.

49th: Darrell Issa and Brian Bilbray: 53-45 McCain.

Issa’s not retiring, so Bilbray probably will. This district has Carlsbad, Oceanside, and Vista, along with Mission Viejo, and is 65% White and only 22% Hispanic.

San Diego:

50th: Susan Davis. 56-42 Obama. pale blue.

So Susan Davis doesn’t have the last district in the state anymore. But this district is swing, in an open seat race at least, so we’re at R + 2. This part of San Diego is much more white, with 68%, 15% Asian, and only 11% Hispanic, amazing for how close to the border it is.

51st: Duncan Hunter. 52-46 McCain. brown.

Hunter gets the Republican areas of the border area. Escondido, Encinitas, Poway, unincorporated San Diego County, and the more Democratic Imperial Valley. 56% White, 35% Hispanic.

52nd: Bob Filner. 55-44 Obama. forest green.

R + 2.5 now. Filner’s also in a swing district, but he’s safe while he stays in Chula Vista and El Cajon. 46% White, 36% Hispanic.

53rd: No Incumbent Representative: 70-28 Obama. white.

White may be the color of the district, but the representative probably won’t be, and since it’s Bilbray’s district shifted, we’re at R + 1.5 for our total from fair redistricting. 36% Hispanic, 33% White, 13% Asian, and 13% Black.

So there you go. After 2012:

Retiring or losing:

John Garamendi-D

Pete Stark-D

David Dreier-R

Jane Harman-D

Laura Richardson-D

Brian Bilbray-R

Many others to toss-up, and seats may change hands in California (1 seat changed in 159 races over 3 years; CA-11 R to D in 06)

Comment if you have input.

HI-01: Colleen Hanabusa Releases First TV Ads

Colleen Hanabusa’s campaign for Congress launched its first commercials today in Honolulu. In what appears to be a very large ad buy (compared to smaller buy from Charles Djou and an even more anemic buy from the barely-noteworthy Ed Case), Hanabusa’s campaign depicts her as a tireless reformer who will work with President Obama to effect change in Washington when she is elected to Congress.

A spot entitled, “Bio,” highlights the values and background behind reforms in education, campaign finance rules and cutting waste that Hanabusa championed during her 12 years in the Hawaii State Senate.

The second spot, “Paperless,” describes Senator Hanabusa’s past record as an agent of change and details her future plans when elected to the U.S. House of Representatives: Work with President Obama and take on special interests to move reform through Congress.

These commercials communicate what Senator Hanabusa stands for, ‘Reform in Washington. Hope for Hawai’i.’

The commercials can be viewed at:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

This is a breath of fresh air for Democrats in Hawaii. The presumed frontrunner, Ed Case a former Blue Dog who missed a year’s worth of votes when he jumped ship to challenge US Senator Daniel Akaka in 2006, is lacking money, organization, and manpower to pull off an effective campaign. Let’s hope the DCCC and DNC listens up.

WI-Gov: Republicans Take a Small Lead in Latest PPP Poll

Public Policy Polling (3/20-21, Wisconsin voters, 11/20-22/2009 in parens):

Tom Barrett (D): 39 (40)

Scott Walker (R): 42 (40)

Undecided: 19 (20)

Tom Barrett (D): 38 (41)

Mark Neumann (R): 43 (39)

Undecided: 19 (20)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker and ex-Rep. Mark Neumann have taken small leads over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett since PPP last touched base here in November, which is a reflection of the toughening national environment more than anything else. All three candidates are pretty unknown — 49% of voters have no opinion of Barrett or Neumann, while 43% feel the same way about Walker. There’s plenty of time for all of these guys to make a greater impression, which may give a bit of an advantage to Barrett, who has no messy primary to deal with.

In any event, as tough as this tossup race will be to hold for Democrats, the evidence still suggests that they’re much better off with Barrett than they would have been with current Gov. Jim Doyle at the helm for another run. Doyle’s approval rating is predictably bad for an incumbent in these times: 29-58.

RaceTracker Wiki: WI-Gov

SSP Daily Digest: 3/24 (Afternoon Edition)

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio seemed to beat Charlie Crist to the punch on calling for repeal of the health care reform bill passed over the weekend, but now the allegedly-moderate Crist is getting in on the act too, saying he opposes the entire bill and supports the lawsuit by Republican AGs (including Florida’s Bill McCollum) against the package.

• KY-Sen: I really can’t decide who I’d rather have in my corner. Rand Paul has the backing of lots of crackpots with computers and open wallets, as he had another online moneybomb yesterday to the tune of $262K. Trey Grayson, on the other hand, has the backing of establishment favorite… Dick Cheney?

• NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B: Earlier in the day, there were rumors that the state GOP in New York was desperately trying to get someone from the GOP field against Kirsten Gillibrand (which doesn’t have any top-tier talent, but at least has a bunch of warm bodies) to switch over to the even more unenviable task of facing off against Chuck Schumer, where they’ve got nobody. Their favored candidate for that job seemed to be former Bush spokesperson Dan Senor. Maybe that rubbed Senor the wrong way, or maybe there’s more to the story, but either way, that changed by mid-day today, as Senor suddenly said he not only wasn’t running against Schumer but not running for anything, period, saying the timing wasn’t right for him. (Well, maybe they’ll have better luck getting David Malpass to switch over.)

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): More up-and-down numbers from Franklin & Marshall this month, as their latest look at the Senate race finds Pat Toomey beating Arlen Specter 33-29 among RVs. Last month, Specter (currently at a terrible 30/45 favorable) led by the same 33-29 margin. (Recall that for the last couple months, F&M was releasing separate numbers for RVs and LVs. They seem to have dropped that unwieldy formulation in favor of RVs only, for now.) They find Toomey beating Joe Sestak 27-19 in the general, Specter beating Sestak 32-12, and in the forgotten GOP primary, Toomey defeating pro-life activist Peg Luksik 30-4. They do only the primaries in the slow-to-take-shape Governor’s race, finding Dan Onorato leading among Dems at 11, followed by Jack Wagner at 7, Joe Hoeffel at 5, and Anthony Williams at 4. Tom Corbett leads state Rep. Sam Rohrer 28-4 on the GOP side.

• UT-Sen: Last night was caucus night in Utah, where precincts chose delegates to the state convention which may or may not be Bob Bennett’s Waterloo. It’s hard to gauge, at this point, how things turned out for Bennett last night; the convention, which will determine whether he can avoid (or even make it to) a primary will be real proof. With filings closed in Utah, Democrats left a lot of seats unchallenged in the dark-red legislature, leaving 15 of 75 House seats and 2 of 15 Senate seats without Ds.

• WA-Sen: Dino Rossi was spotted in DC yesterday to meet with Michael Steele about a possible Senate run. He isn’t expected to make a decision until close to the June 11 primary, though (which seems odd, since he’d be basically starting from scratch at that point to go against Patty Murray’s mammoth war chest).

• IL-10: Bob Dold doesn’t need this. Turns out that Dold, who cozied up to the teabaggers in his primary run and touted his opposition to abortion (in order to squeak past moderate state Rep. Beth Coulson), has turned on a dime and is now calling himself “pro-choice” and “a fiscal conservative and social moderate” in order to run against Dan Seals in the general in this D+6 district.

• MA-10: Republican flavor-of-the-month Scott Brown has weighed in on the GOP primary in the open seat in the 10th, not coincidentally the district where he fared the best in the special election. And he chose new over old, opting for state Rep. Jeff Perry instead of long-ago state Treasurer Joe Malone.

• MI-01: Connie Saltonstall’s primary challenge to Bart Stupak may have lost some of its raison d’etre over the weekend, but it’s still proceeding full speed ahead with some new supporters that may be able to make it rain money for her: Planned Parenthood and NARAL’s PACs. NOW had previously endorsed Saltonstall as well.

• NJ-12: Scott Sipperelle, the random businessman running against Rush Holt in the D+5 12th, apparently has money to burn as he’s already hitting the TV airwaves, with an ad blasting Holt for his health care vote. It’s a cable buy, though (in case you were having visions of him blanketing the NYC and Philly markets), so it could be a tiny expenditure aimed at getting free media for all we know.

• SD-AL: Even with Scott Hildebrand having folded his hand quickly on a threatened Stephanie Herseth Sandlin primary challenge, it sounds like another less-known Dem is getting in on it. Rapid City doctor Kevin Weiland is sounding out a run.

• VA-05: “We’ve given the word ‘mob’ a bad name.” The gas line at the Perriello household was mysteriously cut, after Rep. Tom Perriello’s gutsy HCR vote. Um, oooops… that was the Bo Perriello household, as several local teabaggers mistakenly posted the Congressman’s brother’s address on their websites and urged protesters to stop by for a friendly visit. The guy who posted the address (and refused to take it down after finding out it was the wrong Perriello) is now publicly “shocked” that one of his ilk would resort to violence. Oh, and the FBI is investigating. Tom Perriello, on the other hand, displayed only sangfroid, saying “If the worst thing that happens is that special-interest groups spend millions of dollars against me and my most ardent opponents organize against me, it’s hardly a ‘cry me a river’ moment – as long as people act civil and within the law.”

• WV-01: In the choice between conservadem and even-more-conservadem in the Democratic primary in the 1st, it’s becoming pretty clear which one is which: state GOP chair Douglas McKinney praised Alan Mollohan’s opponent state Sen. Mike Oliverio, saying he “has always been a conservative guy. He votes with the Republican on committees. We’ve joked for years he needs to come over to the party who thinks like he does.”

• HCR: Are some of the saner GOP members of Congress starting to come to their senses as the fog of war starts to dissipate? (Or are they just seeing the shift in the polls and engaging in some pre-emptive ass-covering?) The oft-blustery Rep. Pete King is urging his fellow GOPers to “get constructive” and “stop demonizing” health care reform and the Dems. And Chuck Grassley, almost single-handedly responsible for bogging the bill down and giving legs to the “Death Panel” lie in the August of Dems’ discontent, is now happily talking up his own positive contributions to the bill, regarding tax-exempt hospitals.

• DNC: The DNC is wheeling out a seven-figure budget for running ads in the wake of health care’s passage. It’s two-pronged, with attack ads against vulnerable Republicans who voted “no” (I guess the “voted no” part is redundant): Mark Kirk, Jim Gerlach, Dave Reichert, Mike Castle, and Joe Cao. And “thank you” ads are planned for vulnerable Dems, tentatively including John Boccieri, Dennis Cardoza, Brad Ellsworth, Paul Hodes, Tim Walz, Bob Etheridge, Tom Perriello, Leonard Boswell, Betsy Markey, and Gerry Connolly.

• SARAH’s List: Shortly after tweeting for her supporters not to retreat, but RELOAD, Sarah Palin’s website posted a map with gunsights targeting 20 Representatives for her supporters to shoot. Or to work to defeat for re-election, I suppose. It’s pretty much all the districts that went for McCain in 2008 and where there was a “yes” on HCR, without much regard for the race’s actual vulnerability or whether it’s an open seat: AR-02, AZ-01, AZ-05, AZ-08, CO-03, CO-04, FL-02, FL-24, IN-08, IN-09, ND-AL, OH-06, OH-16, PA-03, PA-10, SC-05, TN-06, VA-05, WV-01, and WV-03.

• Teabaggers: Quinnipiac released another poll showing the peril and promise of the teabagger movement for the GOP, as seen in the contrast between the basic generic ballot (44 R, 39 D) and one with a third-party element thrown in (36 D, 25 R, 15 T). Various commenters, like Ed Kilgore and TPM’s Zachary Roth are paying close attention to the poll, wondering, as they’ve done in the past, if there really even is a new-and-different “Tea Party” movement or if it’s just a new name for the most-extreme, riled-up part of the Republican Party that’s always been there (through the militia movements of the 90s and the Birchers of the 60s).

• NRCC: The NRCC claims to have pulled in $7 million last night at their annual fundraising dinner. That’s a lot of scratch, but bear in mind much of that’s in “pledges,” mostly from House members, some of whom haven’t had a good track record of helping the NRCC in the past.

• Census: Two neat Census-related maps worth checking out. One is a constantly-updated real-time map at the Census website which shows the response rates by state and municipality so far. (While the national return rate so far is 16%, the best municipality return rate so far is the civic minded folks of Westside, Iowa at 74%. And despite the popular image of it being full of paranoid militia types living in the hills who would rather use fiat money than fill out a Census form, Montana has the best return rate of any state, at 33%.) The other map is much sadder, courtesy of the Prison Policy Initiative: it shows state-by-state how much distortion of districts occurs through the counting of prisoners where they’re incarcerated rather than where they’re actually from.