Swing State Project

This is the second part of a series of posts analyzing the swing state Virginia. It will focus on Republican Virginia. The third part can be found here.

History

After the Civil War, Virginia constituted a reliable Democratic stronghold. Conservative Democrats such as Harry F. Byrd, who controlled the state’s politics for decades, typified the state’s politicians.

Like many southern states, Virginia enacted a strict set of voting restrictions which successfully disenfranchised blacks. However, it never voted as overwhelmingly Democratic as the Deep South; only one Democrat (FDR) ever won more than 70% of the vote.

Earlier than most Southern states, Virginia began moving Republican, beginning in 1952 (when it cast the ballot for General Dwight Eisenhower). Republican strength rested upon the mountainous west (Republican even in the days of the Solid South) and the fast-growing, Republican-leaning suburbs. The west still votes Republican, but the suburbs are changing fast.

More below.

Republican Virginia

Like many states in the South – and, in fact, like America itself – the “normal” voter usually leans Republican. When one imagines a Virginian (perhaps a hard-scrabble Appalachian type or a white suburban businessman), one is usually looking at a conservative. It is the growing numbers of “other” voters in the state that are making it competitive today.

These Republicans have several factors in common. Exit polls of the 2008 presidential election provide an interesting but incomplete picture of who they are. As is true of the United States in general, Virginia Republicans are predominately white (60% voted for Senator John McCain, versus 55% nationwide). White college graduates are substantially more Democratic than white non-graduates, but polling did not reveal an income gap. Evangelism Evangelicalism constituted a major factor: white evangelicals voted for McCain by a 4-1 margin. Interestingly, white women did not vote much more Democratic than white men; Virginia’s gender gap was quite narrow relative to the nation at large.

As the map above indicates, the Republicans do best in the western reaches of Virginia. Partly this is because Democratic-voting minorities – mostly blacks – generally live in the east. The quick rightward drift of Appalachian America also accounts for Republican strength, which is growing in the region.

Republicans also retain strength in Virginia’s suburbs and exurbs. Specifically, suburban Richmond and Hampton Roads used to vote Republican quite strongly, ensuring Republican victories even when Democrats undercut their margins in rural Virginia. President Bill Clinton, for instance, did quite well in rural Virginia; it was his losses in these places (Chesterfield and Virginia Beach counties) that kept the state red.

The 2000 presidential election provides an illuminating illustration of Republican Virginia at a strong point:

In that election, Vice President Al Gore lost the state by 8.04% while barely winning the nationwide popular vote. Unlike Mr. Clinton, he was crushed in both rural and suburban Virginia. The former was quickly drifting right, while the suburb’s movement left had yet to materialize.

Since that time, of course, things have changed. While Democratic candidates previously – and mostly unsuccessfully – attacked the rural component of Republican Virginia, they have since switched their focus to populous, wealthy, and diverse suburban Virginia. In particular, Democrats have been appealing quite effectively to the suburban NoVa metropolis, which never really fell in love with Republicanism.

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

As we all know, Governor Goodhair is now moving on to take on Bill White in the general election, and last night may have shown a natural ceiling for what the Tea Party can accomplish in Debra Medina.

We also say, maybe, some anti-Washington bias in Texans’ sound rejection of Kay Bailey Hutchison.

So how did it all shake out?

Well, here’s the map by county:

Throughout this diary, Blue denotes Perry, Green denotes KBH, and Red denotes either Medina or simply “anti-Perry”, depending on whether it’s a 3-color or 2-color scheme map, respectively.

You’ll see that Medina won 4 counties, Carson, Crane, San Saba, and Zavala. None of these counties are particularly vote-rich; in these four combined, Medina received 1,256 votes to Perry’s 711 and KBH’s 701. KBH won a cluster of counties around San Angelo, but really couldn’t tell you why.

More after the flip.

Here are each candidate’s performances:

KBH:

As we said, KBH did the best in a cluster near San Angelo; she did decently well in the Panhandle. She performed poorly in the Houston area, likely leading to Perry clearing the runoff threshold. Other areas of weakness included East Texas and along the (Mexican) border.

Medina:

Medina did well in North Texas, especially outside Dallas County; and west of Houston. East Texas and the Panhandle were particularly week. Not too much to read into in Medina’s county wins – they’re small counties and some might just be flukes, like Medina’s 11-3-2 win in Zavala County (a heavily Hispanic county that went VERY strongly for Obama).

Perry:

Lastly, we have Perry’s map. Perry did extremely well in Metro Houston, East Texas, and along the border; in contrast to slightly weaker performances in the Metroplex and again around San Angelo. The darkest blue is where Perry received 50%+, keeping him from the runoff.

Here’s an alternative visualization of this (where Blue indicates a Perry performance of 50%+; red indicating less than 50%).

You can see that Perry fell short of 50%, but only barely, in the Metroplex, slightly more so west of Houston (Ron Paul territory, incidentally), and very much so in KBH’s strongholds around San Angelo. This was offset, with Perry gaining votes on 50% in every county along the Gulf Coast.

Of course, the number of votes differs greatly by county. Not counting the numerous counties in which no votes were recorded, the vote counts ranged from a measly 3 votes in Upton County to almost 158,000 in Harris County (Houston). So here’s a map based on Perry’s relation to the 50% runoff line, in terms of raw votes (the key’s in the top left).

Perry was 16,166 votes ahead of 50%, and he built them up a great deal in metro Houston. Perry went +17,168 in Harris County, and tacked on another +5,935 in Montgomery immediately to the north and another +2,626 in Fort Bend. Other good points were: +1,654 in Nueces (Corpus Christi) and +1,452 in Bexar (San Antonio).

Where Perry’s weakness hurt him the most was clearly in the Metroplex. Perry lost -3,097 in Dallas County, -2,633 in Tarrant next door, and -1,172 in Denton up top. Rounding out the bottom 5 are Travis (Austin) at – 1,357 and a surprisingly strong Medina county, Wharton County, – 1,309.

So where does this leave us moving forward? It seems there seems to be a relative coolness towards Perry in the vote-rich Metroplex, something Bill White could capitalize on in his attempt to take back the statehouse. It’s also helpful that White’s natural base in Houston will offset some of Perry’s apparent advantage as well.

I’ll revisit the subject once the Texas Legislative Council (who are awesome at what they do) get precinct data online, but in the meantime…enjoy!

Still clearing the decks…

Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (2/22-24, likely voters, 1/5-7 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (41)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 51 (49)

Undecided: 9 (10)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (40)

Sue Lowden (R): 52 (50)

Undecided: 9 (10)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 42 (40)

Sharron Angle (R): 44 (45)

Undecided: 14 (NA)

(MoE: ±4%)

The GOP primary:

Danny Tarkanian (R): 29 (28)

Sue Lowden (R): 47 (26)

Sharron Angle (R): 8 (14)

John Chachas (R): 1 (0)

Bill Parson (R): 0

Undecided: 15 (32)

(MoE: ±6%)

There’s also been some hype over a three-way hypothetical that Mase-Dix threw in the mix here, pitting Reid against a generic “GOP nominee” and a generic “Tea Party” nominee. That permutation found Reid leading the GOP candidate by 36-32, with the teabagger perched at 18%. Personally, I don’t take too much stock in such numbers — the effect of these third-party types can be overstated in early, hypothetically-worded polls like this one. I don’t think Reid can count on a teabag-induced path to victory here.

And for that gube race…

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 30 (23)

Brian Sandoval (R): 37 (39)

Michael Montadon (R): 9 (7)

Undecided: 24 (31)

(MoE: ±6%)

I’m pretty surprised to see Gibbons climb up once again (he was at a dismal 18% in December). Perhaps he’s getting some sympathy votes for his recently-professed born-again virgin status. Still, I’d be pretty surprised if Gibbons can find the votes he needs from that undecided column.

Rory Reid (D): 29 (31)

Brian Sandoval (R): 51 (53)

Undecided: 20 (16)

Rory Reid (D): 42 (43)

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 38 (36)

Undecided: 20 (21)

(MoE: ±4%)

It’s pretty brutal that Rory is barely beating (and losing ground to!) an incumbent governor with a 17/51 favorable rating. Can anyone remind me again how we got saddled with this dweeb as the Democratic nominee?

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/22-24, likely voters, no trendlines):

Brad Ellsworth (D): 36

Dan Coats (R): 37

Undecided: 27

Brad Ellsworth (D): 34

John Hostettler (R): 40

Undecided: 26

Baron Hill (D): 37

Dan Coats (R): 37

Undecided: 26

Baron Hill (D): 36

John Hostettler (R): 42

Undecided: 22

Jim Schellinger (D): 34

Dan Coats (R): 39

Undecided: 27

Jim Schellinger (D): 33

John Hostettler (R): 44

Undecided: 23

(MoE: ±4%)

This poll went into the field before Indiana Democrats coalesced around Rep. Brad Ellsworth – and before Rep. Baron Hill took himself out of the running. Architect and 2008 Dem gubernatorial candidate Jim Schellinger also won’t be our nominee, but the inclusion of his name lets us see how a non-DC name fares. And the bottom line is that it’s competitive all around.

Perhaps even more interesting, though, is that lunatic John Hostettler, who was teabagging before they even invented tea, performs better than creaky beltway creature and North Carolina resident Dan Coats. While the CW says we should always be rooting for teabaggers in GOP primaries, Coats’ abysmal resume has me questioning that assumption. Hoss really is nucking futs, though, and as a notoriously feckless fundraiser, he probably can’t raise nearly as much money as Coats can. I’m torn – I want them both to win!

(Additional discussion in hoosierdem’s diary.)

State Senator David Shafer (R) is out.  Shafer had shown ambition earlier this cycle with a run for Lieutenant Governor (which was aborted when the incumbent, Casey Cagle, decided to run for re-election instead of running for governor), but says he wants to be closer to his family.  Former Atlanta Braves pitcher John Smoltz is likewise out, declining after apparently not even knowing he was considering.

State Representative Clay Cox (R), however, is in.  The other announced Republican, State Senator Don “the Hutt” Balfour has gone on record supporting massive tuition increases saying, “We’re becoming a socialist society when we say that you shouldn’t raise tuition at all…is embarrassingly cheap.”  See here.

Also considering the race, on the Republican side, are State Representative Jeff May, Gwinnett County Republican Chair Chuck Efstration, Assistant DA and Gwinnett County Commissioner Mike Beaudreau (see link for Cox on these three), hyprocritical Bible beater extraordinaire Ralph Reed, State Representative Bobby Reese (he’d be switching from the race in the 9th to the 7th, where in lives), and State Representative Tom Rice.

For Democrats, speculation centers on 2008 candidate Doug Heckman, who got 41% in the district.  Heckman is currently serving in the Army Reserves, so he won’t be announcing anything for now.  He had also been considering a run for the 47th State Senate seat, left open by the decision of Republican Senator Ralph Hudgens to run for insurance commissioner.  SD-47 is far more Republican than GA-07, so Heckman would have it easier in the Congressional district, at least on that criterion. CORRECTION: I was thinking of 10th district nominee Bobby Saxon when I wrote that.  Saxon is the one considering a run for the 47th Senate seat.

 

Some Downballot Considerations

State Representative David Casas (R) has decided to run for Balfour’s open seat.  Although both seats have the makings of ticking time bombs for the Republicans, the house seat (the 103rd) is far more promising for us.  In 2008, Allan Burns (who ran against Linder in 2006), held Casas to under 55%.  Burns told me today on Facebook that he’s considering another run.

Our chances at picking up these other seats are much, much slimmer.  Brooke Nebel has been running against Rice for several months.  Parts of the district (the 51st) are promising while others aren’t.  Cox’s 102nd lies along the DeKalb-Gwinnett border.  You’d think that will be a prime location for a pickup.  Yet, for some reason, this area is a dead zone for us.  Randy Sauder briefly represented the area as a Democrat, but he switched parties (from Republican to Democratic) while in office and never ran for re-election as a Democrat.  May’s 111th district is in rural, Republican Walton County.  Balfour’s seat is like Rice’s some pockets of strength and a positive outlook someday, but probably not there right now.

• AR-Sen: Bill Halter’s netroots haul has crested $1 million, between MoveOn and ActBlue (led by the PCCC and Daily Kos). On top of all that, the Sierra Club is joining the fray, with its own attack ads against Blanche Lincoln over her attempts to limit EPA regulation. The ads don’t mention Halter by name, though.

• AZ-Sen: John McCain is getting the newest GOP sensation, Scott Brown, to come to Arizona to stump for him. Because, you know, nothing says “Hey teabaggers, vote for me instead of J.D. Hayworth!” than bringing in the New England RINO who gladly took all the teabaggers’ money and support and turned around and voted for a Democratic piece of legislation on his first week on the job.

• CO-Sen: Having seemingly scored big time with his public option letter (at least to the extent of raising his previously very low profile), Michael Bennet seems to be getting very ambitious. The freshman Senator just unveiled a comprehensive package of Senate reforms that he’s authored that’s aimed squarely at undoing the quagmire that the Senate has become, including filibuster reform, eliminating anonymous holds and private-sector earmarks, and barring lawmakers from lobbying… for life.

• KS-Sen: Rasmussen finds that (big surprise) all the action in the Kansas Senate race is the GOP primary (although they didn’t bother polling the hotly-contested primary). Rather than test possible candidate state Sen. David Haley, they just take the “Generic D” route, and find both Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt beating G.D., 51-26 and 50-29 respectively.

• ND-Sen: The Dems’ leading candidate for contesting the likely takeover of the open Senate seat in North Dakota by Republican Gov. John Hoeven decided against a run, probably sensing the long odds. Former AG Heidi Heitkamp said no (on her brother’s radio show), although rumors suggest she’s interested in running for Governor in 2012, meaning she probably wouldn’t want a big defeat as people’s last memory of her. State Sen. Tracy Potter is already in for the Dems, and businesswoman Kristin Hedger may also get in, as she said she’d defer only to Heitkamp.

• NY-Sen-B: Is Kirsten Gillibrand going to actually be able to waltz to re-election, or will some other moneybags celebrity pop out of the woodwork next week? After having sent Harold Ford Jr. packing, now billionaire publisher Mort Zuckerman decided against a Republican bid (couching it oddly, in that being a Senator would take up too much time from his actual day job). Zuckerman is wise to save his money, as Rasmussen finds Zuckerman losing to Gillibrand 47-36 (not as bad as Marist yesterday, but still not encouraging). Rasmussen also finds Gillibrand beating even George Pataki, 44-42 (although for some reason they don’t poll actual candidate Bruce Blakeman).

• NY-Gov: When it rains, it pours, for David Paterson. The New York State Commission on Public Integrity just released its finding that he violated state ethics laws for securing World Series tickets for himself and friends and then falsely testifying under oath about it. That gets sent over to Andrew Cuomo’s desk on top of the whole meshugas about the state police, which kept building today with the resignation of state police superintendent Harry Corbitt. Maurice Hinchey just publicly said what I’ll bet most other New York Dems are privately thinking: he’s glad he won’t have to run with Paterson upticket from him.

Meanwhile, there’s a ton of snap polling out today about Paterson, of varying degrees of badness for him. Quinnipiac finds his approval at an all-time low of 24/62, although voters say 61-31 he should finish his term rather than resign. SurveyUSA, however, finds a plurality for resignation: 47 say resign, 44 say stay. Rasmussen finds 28 say resign, 53 say stay. Rasmussen also threw in some numbers for the gubernatorial election in November, finding Cuomo winning against Republican Rick Lazio, 55-30. They also tested out gadflyish businessman Carl Paladino, who’s made noises about running. With Paladino as the R, Cuomo wins 56-27, and with Paladino as an I, Cuomo is at 50, with 19 for Lazio and 15 for Paladino.

• OK-Gov: Here’s a path for Democrats to win the Governor’s race in Oklahoma, according to Rasmussen: find a way for state Sen. Randy Brogdon to win the GOP primary. Unfortunately, it seems like the very conservative Rep. Mary Fallin is well on her way to winning the primary against the ultra-conservative Brogdon. Fallin beats Democratic Lt. Gov. Jari Askins 51-37, and AG Drew Edmondson 51-36. Brodgon, however, loses to Askins 42-39 and beats Edmondson 42-41.

• PA-Gov: Quinnipiac released the gubernatorial half of its Pennsylvania poll, and Arlen Specter’s bounce doesn’t seem to have rubbed off much on the Democrats running for Governor… although their main problem, as always, seems to be that no one knows who they are. In the primary, “don’t know” dominates at 59, followed by Dan Onorato is at 16, Jack Wagner at 11, Joe Hoeffel at 10, and Anthony Williams at 2. AG Tom Corbett has no problems on the GOP side, beating state Rep. Sam Rohrer 43-5. In head-to-heads, Corbett beats Onorato 42-32, Wagner 42-30, and Hoeffel 41-30.

• TN-Gov: Here’s another state where it’s still just too damn early to be polling the gubernatorial race. MTSU doesn’t even bother with head-to-heads in the Tennessee race, but finds that Republican Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam (who’s been spending heavily on advertising) has a bit of a leg up, in that he’s the least unknown of the myriad candidates (19% of respondents were actually able to name him). Mike McWherter is the best known Dem (although that may be because he shares a last name with his dad the ex-Gov.).

• HI-01: We’ve gotten confirmation that the May 22 special election to replace resigned Rep. Neil Abercrombie will be an all mail-in affair, saving the state some money but possibly scrambling the parties’ GOTV plans. This election and the special election in PA-12 four days earlier pose a quandary for the NRCC — spend money they don’t really have, in order to take advantage of what seems to be nationwide Republican momentum… or fess up that they really don’t have much chance in either of these districts and save their money for November (or worse, spend the money and lose anyway, as with NY-20 and NY-23). NRCC spokesperson Paul Lindsey seems to telegraph which way the NRCC is leaning: “Considering that one district is the birthplace of President Obama and the other gives Democrats a voter registration advantage of more than 130,000, it is not lost on anyone that we face an incredible challenge in both races.”

• NY-15: Charles Rangel has finally put down his gavel as Ways and Means chair, after he was found to have violated ethics rules. He says it’s a temporary “leave of absence,” but the House’s presiding officer said “the resignation is accepted,” suggesting something more permanent. This comes in the face of a growing wave of opposition within his own party, with a number of members returning his PAC money (ranging from the very vulnerable, like Walt Minnick, to the theoretically vulnerable, like Niki Tsongas). Also, perhaps symbolically important, it came after Artur Davis (running for Alabama governor) became the first CBC member to call for Rangel to give up his gavel.

• OK-02 (pdf): The 2nd seems like a strange choice of a place to poll, but I guess it’s a good test case in terms of a Democratic Rep. in a dark-red district that hasn’t been on anyone’s radar screen as being vulnerable (in the face of utterly no-name challengers). True to form, Dan Boren doesn’t have much to worry about this fall. He’s having no trouble against his anonymous opponents, beating Dan Arnett 49-22, Daniel Edmonds 44-28, and Howard Houchen 48-26. (Teabagging independent Miki Booth pulls in 7 or 8 in each matchup.) Much of that has to do with the level of opposition, but Boren is the first incumbent Rep. PPP has found who’s polling above 50 in terms of approval, at 51/33. Boren’s occasional, um, departures from the party line can be better understood in terms of Barack Obama’s disturbingly low 27/65 approval in the district.

• PA-11: Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien got some help from the left as he fights a primary battle against crusty Rep. Paul Kanjorski; he got the endorsement of two local unions: the Northeast Pennsylvania Building and Construction Trades Council, and the Scranton Building and Construction Trades Council.

• PA-12: Bill Russell released an internal poll showing him beating Tim Burns in the GOP primary in the 12th. That’s not really the newsworthy part; what’s interesting is his internal pollster is Zogby. The pollster that everyone treated as an oracle in 2004 has been reduced to polling on behalf of BMW Direct’s direct-mail-scam frontman? Lord, how the mighty have fallen.

• Census: Guess who’s finally learned to love the Census? Michele Bachmann! Probably after some of her staffers showed her a puppet show spreadsheet showing how a combination of not enough residents in her district + a Democratic governor and legislature = no more MN-06. At any rate, she’s planning to vote for a largely symbolic resolution to encourage Americans to participate in the Census.

Busy night in Texas last night, although both sides in the gubernatorial race turned out being pretty anticlimactic. Incumbent Republican Rick Perry just barely managed to cleared the 50% hurdle and avoid a runoff; he got 51 to Kay Bailey Hutchison’s 30 and Debra Medina’s 19. Medina’s 19 is higher than anyone would have imagined a few months ago, but it also may reflect there’s a ceiling on what teabaggers can accomplish, and she may have reached that; that’s confirmed with the range of teabagger challenges to Republican incumbents in the House and the state legislature. Challenges to Ron Paul (81%) and Pete Sessions (84%) barely made a ripple, and while self-funding teabagger Steve Clark racked up 30% in TX-04, that’s mostly by virtue of running against the mummified remains of Ralph Hall rather than a vigorous opponent. In what seems like the two most competitive House races in November, the Republicans are headed to runoffs: Quico Canseco vs. Will Hurd in TX-23, and Bill Flores vs. Rob Curnock in TX-17. (Considering how uncontroversial incumbent Railroad Commissioner Victor Carrillo surprisingly lost a one-on-one to an underfunded unknown with an Anglo surname, I wonder if Canseco and Flores should be worried going into the runoffs.)

Bill White doesn’t get the advantage of a facing a runoff-addled Rick Perry in the general, but he’s coming into it with a head of steam, racking up 76% in the Dem primary to 13% for Farouk Shami. He’s likely to get a boost from Latino turnout as he’s backed up by two Latino ticket-mates who won last night: Lt. Governor candidate Linda Chavez-Thompson and Land Commissioner candidate Hector Uribe (who ended at 52% after trailing most of the night). (He’ll also be backed up by a non-annoying Ag Commissioner candidate, in the form of Hank Gilbert, who narrowly defeated Kinky Friedman.)

Further down the ballot, in what many considered the most important race of the night, in the GOP primary for District 9 of the state Board of Education, incumbent wingnut Don McLeroy lost narrowly to moderate Thomas Ratliff. Moderate Geraldine Miller lost in a surprise to George Clayton, though (although he says he wants books to be “agenda-free”). The balance of power between creationists and “moderates” (by Texas standards) on the SBOE may yet come down to a runoff in one other race, between Marsha Farney and Brian Russell.

Two other states had special elections in their state House of Representatives, with the Dems and GOP each holding seats they’d previously occupied. It was a nail-biter in Virginia’s HD-41 in suburban Fairfax County, where Democrat Eileen Filler-Corn prevailed by 42 votes over Republican Kerry Bolognese to keep the seat vacated by now-state Sen. Dave Marsden. (Theoretically, that was close enough for a recount, but the GOP won’t request one and Filler-Corn is being seated today.) In Connecticut, Republican Laura Hoydick defeated Democrat Janice Anderson to keep in GOP hands the seat vacated by Stratford’s new mayor John Harkins; the two will face off again in November.

Well, this was completely unexpected:

Rep. Eric Massa (D-NY) is finished with Congress after a single term, he plans to announce in a press conference call today, sources confirm to Hotline OnCall.

Massa, a former top aide on the House Armed Services Committee and aide to ret. Gen. Wes Clark, will cite health reasons in his announcement, the New York Daily News, which broke the story, reported today, though Massa warned a source for the paper about “hearing things that aren’t true,” a seemingly veiled reference to embarrassing information that may emerge.

Massa has been consistently marching to the beat of his own drummer in his year in Congress (since narrowly taking out incumbent GOP Rep. Randy Kuhl in 2008)… voting against health care reform, ostensibly from the left, and against foreclosure reform. So, bailing on his seat (especially after his cryptic will-he-won’t-he re-election announcement several months ago) doesn’t seem that out of character.

As much as replacing Massa with someone more consistent would be nice, an open seat throws the DCCC for one more loop. The mostly rural district centered on Elmira is an R+5 district, possibly the toughest in New York, and Corning mayor Tom Reed is a reasonably strong Republican opponent, touted by the NRCC (although he certainly hasn’t set the world on fire with his fundraising), and, as one of the few loud-and-proud moderates running this cycle for the GOP, may be poised to follow in the footsteps of the district’s beloved ex-Rep. Amo Houghton.

UPDATE: Massa’s spokesperson says he’s leaving because of a recurrence of cancer. Best wishes to Massa as he focuses on his health.

UPDATE: Looking at state legislative maps, this looks like a real dead zone in terms of a Dem bench… nothing in the state Senate, thanks to the hegemony of the GOP old-timers staying on. In the state Assembly, looks like David Koon in Perriton overlaps a bit in the Rochester suburbs. We may want to go the Scott Murphy/Bill Owens charismatic guy-with-money approach anyway.

LATER UPDATE (James): Yikes. The Politico has a dramatically different take on why Massa is retiring, citing allegations that he sexually harassed a male staffer. They also cite a few new potential Republican candidates: Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks, state Assemblyman Brian Kolb and state Senator Kathy Young.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Sources are now saying that Massa plans to resign today, which would further complicate the health care reform vote in the House. (Wait… or does it? He voted against it the first time, and since he voted against it from the left doesn’t seem likely to have budged.)

STILL MORE: No, it sounds like he’s retiring at the end of his term… although his prognosis doesn’t sound good, as he said he’ll be “entering the final phase of his life at a controlled pace.”

RaceTracker Wiki: NY-29

PPP (2/26-28, registered voters):

Roy Barnes (D): 40

John Oxendine (R): 39

Undecided: 21

Roy Barnes (D): 41

Karen Handel (R): 36

Undecided: 23

Roy Barnes (D): 43

Nathan Deal (R): 38

Undecided: 19

Thurbert Baker (D): 33

John Oxendine (R): 42

Undecided: 25

Thurbert Baker (D): 33

Karen Handel (R): 40

Undecided: 27

Thurbert Baker (D): 30

Nathan Deal (R): 40

Undecided: 30

(MoE: ±4%)

Looks like it’s a good year to be running as whatever party isn’t in control. That’s good for the GOP at the federal level, but in a lot of statehouses, that may be good for the Dems. Georgia may be one state where that’s the case — incumbent GOP Gov. Sonny Perdue, who’s term-limited and not running, has 29/52 approvals. And the various Republicans running to replace him all trail their likely Democratic opponent, ex-Gov. Roy Barnes, according to PPP’s first poll of the race.

PPP has one important caveat, though: Republicans are more undecided than Democrats in each of the three matchups, with the probable reason that Barnes has high name rec from his previous term as Governor, while the three leading GOPers (Insurance Comm. John Oxendine, former SoS Karen Handel, and Rep. (for a few more days) Nathan Deal). The numbers may move more in a Republican direction as the candidates become better-known. Still, Barnes is starting out in a good place, and it looks like he may have picked the right year to try and get his foot back in the door.

RaceTracker Wiki: GA-Gov