Swing State Project

A week ago I took a look at our efforts to recruit House candidates for 2010. This time it is the Republicans.

Lots more Districts now have Republican candidates and they are getting wingnuttier all the time.

AZ-04 (Pastor) – D+13,

AR-04 (Ross) – R+7,

CA-06 (Woolsey) – D+23,

CA-13 (Stark) – D+22,

CA-27 (Sherman) – D+13,

CA-28 (Berman) – D+23,

CA-33 (Watson) – D+35,

CA-36 (Harman) – D+12,

CA-51 (Filner) – D+8,

CO-01 (DeGette) – D+21,

GA-04 (Johnson) – D+24,

GA-08 (Marshall) – R+10,

IL-03 (Lipinski) – D+11,

IL-05 (Quigley) – D+19,

IL-07 (Davis) – D+35,

IL-09 (Schakowsky) – D+20,

IL-12 (Costello) – D+3,

IN-02 (Donnelly) – R+2,

IN-07 (Carson) – D+14,

IA-01 (Braley) – D+5,

KS-03 (Moore OPEN) – R+3,

KY-03 (Yarmuth) – D+2,

MD-04 (Edwards) – D+31,

MD-05 (Hoyer) – D+11,

MA-01 (Olger) – D+14,

MA-10 (Delahunt) – D+5,

MI-05 (Kildee) – D+11,

MN-01 (Walz) – R+1,

MN-08 (Oberstar) – D+3,

MO-03 (Carnahan) – D+7,

MO-05 (Cleaver) – D+10,

NV-01 (Berkley) – D+10,

NV-03 (Titus) – D+2,

NJ-03 (Adler) – R+1,

NY-02 (Israel) – D+4,

NY-23 (Owens) – R+1,

NC-01 (Butterfield) – D+9,

NC-11 (Shuler) – R+6,

NC-12 (Watt) – D+16,

ND-AL (Pomeroy) – R+10,

OH-10 (Kucinich) – D+8,

OH-13 (Sutton) – D+5,

OH-16 (Boccieri) – R+4,

OR-05 (Schrader) – D+1,

PA-04 (Altmire) – R+6,

PA-08 (Murphy) – D+2,

PA-11 (Kanjorski) – D+4,

PA-14 (Doyle) – D+19,

PA-17 (Holden) – R+6,

SC-05 (Spratt) – R+7,

TN-05 (Cooper) – D+3,

TX-09 (Green) – D+22,

TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,

TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,

TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,

TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,

VA-08 (Moran) – D+16,

Below the fold for all the details (and bring some eyewash) and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

Also keep an eye out for the great series on Democratic House Candidates by Adam T

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

As we assumed for us so should we assume for them; so all 177 Republican held districts can be considered filled.

176 Democratic held Districts have confirmed GOP candidates:

AL-02 (Bright) – R+16,

AL-05 (Griffith) – R+12,

AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick) – R+6,

AZ-04 (Pastor) – D+13,

AZ-05 (Mitchell) – R+5,

AZ-07 (Grijalva) – D+6,

AZ-08 (Giffords) – R+4,

AR-01 (Berry) – R+8,

AR-02 (Snyder) – R+5,

AR-04 (Ross) – R+7,

CA-01 (Thompson) – D+13,

CA-06 (Woolsey) – D+23,

CA-08 (Pelosi) – D+35,

CA-11 (McNerney) – R+1,

CA-13 (Stark) – D+22,

CA-20 (Costa) – D+5,

CA-27 (Sherman) – D+13,

CA-28 (Berman) – D+23,

CA-30 (Waxman) – D+18,

CA-33 (Watson) – D+35,

CA-36 (Harman) – D+12,

CA-47 (Sanchez) – D+4,

CA-51 (Filner) – D+8,

CA-53 (Davis) – D+14,

CO-01 (DeGette) – D+21,

CO-03 (Salazar) – R+5,

CO-04 (Markey) – R+6,

CO-07 (Perlmutter) – D+4,

CT-02 (Courtney) – D+6,

CT-03 (DeLauro) – D+9,

CT-04 (Himes) – D+5,

CT-05 (Murphy) – D+2,

FL-02 (Boyd) – R+6,

FL-03 (Brown) – D+18,

FL-08 (Grayson) – R+2,

FL-11 (Castor) – D+11,

FL-17 (Meek OPEN) – D+34,

FL-19 (Wexler Special Election) – D+15,

FL-20 (Wasserman Schulz) – D+13,

FL-22 (Klein) – D+1,

FL-23 (Hastings) – D+28,

FL-24 (Kosmas) – R+4,

GA-02 (Bishop) – D+1,

GA-04 (Johnson) – D+24,

GA-08 (Marshall) – R+10,

GA-12 (Barrow) – D+1,

GA-13 (Scott) – D+15,

HI-01 (Abercrombie OPEN) – D+11,

ID-01 (Minnick) – R+18,

IL-02 (Jackson Jr) – D+36,

IL-03 (Lipinski) – D+11,

IL-05 (Quigley) – D+19,

IL-07 (Davis) – D+35,

IL-08 (Bean) – R+1,

IL-09 (Schakowsky) – D+20,

IL-11 (Halvorson) – R+1,

IL-12 (Costello) – D+3,

IL-14 (Foster) – R+1,

IL-17 (Hare) – D+3,

IN-02 (Donnelly) – R+2,

IN-07 (Carson) – D+14,

IN-08 (Ellsworth) – R+8,

IN-09 (Hill) – R+6,

IA-01 (Braley) – D+5,

IA-02 (Loebsack) – D+1,

IA-03 (Boswell) – D+1,

KS-03 (Moore Open) – R+3,

KY-03 (Yarmuth) – D+2,

KY-06 (Chandler) – R+9,

LA-03 (Melancon OPEN) – R+12,

ME-02 (Michaud) – D+3,

MD-01 (Kratovil) – R+13,

MD-03 (Sarbanes) – D+6,

MD-04 (Edwards) – D+31,

MD-05 (Hoyer) – D+11,

MD-08 (Van Hollen Jr) – D+21,

MA-01 (Olger) – D+14,

MA-02 (Neal) – D+9,

MA-04 (Frank) – D+14,

MA-05 (Tsongas) – D+8,

MA-06 (Tierney) – D+7,

MA-10 (Delahunt) – D+5,

MI-05 (Kildee) – D+11,

MI-07 (Schauer) – R+2,

MI-09 (Peters) – D+2,

MI-12 (Levin) – D+12,

MN-01 (Walz) – R+1,

MN-04 (McCollum) – D+13,

MN-08 (Oberstar) – D+3,

MS-01 (Childers) – R+14,

MS-04 (Taylor) – R+20,

MO-03 (Carnahan) – D+7,

MO-04 (Skelton) – R+14,

MO-05 (Cleaver) – D+10,

NV-01 (Berkley) – D+10,

NV-03 (Titus) – D+2,

NH-01 (Shea Porter) – D+0,

NH-02 (Hodes OPEN) – D+3,

NJ-03 (Adler) – R+1,

NJ-12 (Holt) – D+5,

NM-01 (Heinrich) – D+5,

NM-02 (Teague) – R+6,

NM-03 (Lujan) – D+7,

NY-01 (Bishop) – D+0,

NY-02 (Israel) – D+4,

NY-04 (McCarthy) – D+6,

NY-13 (McMahon) – R+4,

NY-19 (Hall) – R+3,

NY-22 (Hinchey) – D+6,

NY-23 (Owens) – R+1,

NY-25 (Maffei) – D+3,

NY-29 (Massa) – R+5,

NC-01 (Butterfield) – D+9,

NC-04 (Price) – D+8,

NC-07 (McIntyre) – R+5,

NC-08 (Kissell) – R+2,

NC-11 (Shuler) – R+6,

NC-12 (Watt) – D+16,

NC-13 (Miller) – D+5,

ND-AL (Pomeroy) – R+10,

OH-01 (Driehaus) – D+1,

OH-06 (Wilson) – R+2,

OH-10 (Kucinich) – D+8,

OH-13 (Sutton) – D+5,

OH-15 (Kilroy) – D+1,

OH-16 (Boccieri) – R+4,

OH-18 (Space) – R+7,

OK-02 (Boren) – R+14,

OR-01 (Wu) – D+8,

OR-04 (DeFazio) – D+2,

OR-05 (Schrader) – D+1,

PA-03 (Dahlkemper) – R+3,

PA-04 (Altmire) – R+6,

PA-07 (Sestak) – D+3,

PA-08 (Murphy) – D+2,

PA-10 (Carney) – R+8,

PA-11 (Kanjorski) – D+4,

PA-12 (Murtha) – R+1,

PA-13 (Schwartz) – D+7,

PA-14 (Doyle) – D+19,

PA-17 (Holden) – R+6,

RI-01 (Kennedy) – D+13,

RI-02 (Langevin) – D+9,

SC-05 (Spratt) – R+7,

SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin) – R+9,

TN-04 (Davis) – R+13,

TN-05 (Cooper) – D+3,

TN-06 (Gordon) – R+13,

TN-08 (Tanner) – R+6,

TX-09 (Green) – D+22,

TX-15 (Hinojosa) – D+3,

TX-16 (Reyes) – D+10,

TX-17 (Edwards) – R+20,

TX-18 (Jackson Lee) – D+24,

TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,

TX-23 (Rodriguez) – R+4,

TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,

TX-27 (Ortiz) – R+2,

TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,

TX-29 (Green) – D+8,

TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,

UT-02 (Matheson) – R+15,

VA-02 (Nye) – R+5,

VA-05 (Perriello) – R+5,

VA-08 (Moran) – D+16,

VA-09 (Boucher) – R+11,

VA-11 (Connolly) – D+2,

WA-03 (Baird) – D+0,

WA-06 (Dicks) – D+5,

WA-09 (Smith) – D+5,

WV-01 (Mollohan) – R+9,

WV-03 (Rahall) – R+6,

WI-02 (Baldwin) – D+15,

WI-03 (Kind) – D+4,

WI-04 (Moore) – D+22,

WI-07 (Obey) – D+3,

WI-08 (Kagen) – R+2,

7 Democratic held Districts have GOP candidates that are considering a run:

CA-10 (Garamendi) – D+11,

ME-01 (Pingree) – D+8,

NY-14 (Maloney) – D+26,

NY-20 (Murphy) – R+2,

NY-24 (Arcuri) – R+2,

OH-17 (Ryan) – D+12,

WA-07 (McDermott) – D+31,

1 Democratic held District has a rumoured GOP Party candidates:

NJ-08 (Pascrell) – D+10,

72 Democratic held Districts don’t have any GOP candidates:

AL-07 (Davis OPEN) – D+18,

CA-05 (Matsui) – D+15,

CA-07 (Miller) – D+19,

CA-09 (Lee) – D+37,

CA-12 (Speier) – D+23,

CA-14 (Eshoo) – D+21,

CA-15 (Honda) – D+15,

CA-16 (Lofgren) – D+16,

CA-17 (Farr) – D+19,

CA-18 (Cardoza) – D+4,

CA-23 (Capps) – D+12,

CA-29 (Schiff) – D+14,

CA-31 (Becerra) – D+29,

CA-32 (Chu) – D+15,

CA-34 (Roybal-Allard) – D+22,

CA-35 (Waters) – D+31,

CA-37 (Richardson) – D+26,

CA-38 (Napolitano) – D+18,

CA-39 (Sanchez) – D+12,

CA-43 (Baca) – D+13,

CO-02 (Polis) – D+11,

CT-01 (Larson) – D+13,

GA-05 (Lewis) – D+26,

HI-02 (Hirono) – D+14,

IN-01 (Visclosky) – D+8,

MD-02 (Ruppersberger) – D+7,

MD-07 (Cummings) – D+25,

MA-03 (McGovern) – D+9,

MA-07 (Markey) – D+15,

MA-08 (Capuano) – D+32,

MA-09 (Lynch) – D+11,

MI-01 (Stupak) – R+3,

MI-13 (Kilpatrick) – D+31,

MI-14 (Conyers) – D+34,

MI-15 (Dingell) – D+13,

MN-05 (Ellison) – D+23,

MN-07 (Peterson) – R+5,

MS-02 (Thompson) – D+12,

MO-01 (Clay) – D+27,

NJ-01 (Andrews) – D+12,

NJ-06 (Pallone) – D+8,

NJ-09 (Rothman) – D+9,

NJ-10 (Payne) – D+33,

NJ-13 (Sires) – D+21,

NY-05 (Ackerman) – D+12,

NY-06 (Meeks) – D+36,

NY-07 (Crowley) – D+26,

NY-08 (Nadler) – D+22,

NY-09 (Weiner) – D+5,

NY-10 (Towns) – D+38,

NY-11 (Clarke) – D+38,

NY-12 (Velazquez) – D+33,

NY-15 (Rangel) – D+41,

NY-16 (Serrano) – D+41,

NY-17 (Engel) – D+18,

NY-18 (Lowey) – D+9,

NY-21 (Tonko) – D+6,

NY-27 (Higgins) – D+4,

NY-28 (Slaughter) – D+15,

NC-02 (Etheridge) – R+2,

OH-09 (Kaptor) – D+10,

OH-11 (Fudge) – D+32,

OR-03 (Blumenauer) – D+19,

PA-01 (Brady) – D+35,

PA-02 (Fattah) – D+38,

SC-06 (Clyburn) – D+12,

TN-09 (Cohen) – D+23,

VT-AL (Welch) – D+13,

VA-03 (Scott) – D+20,

WA-01 (Inslee) – D+9,

WA-02 (Larsen) – D+3,

Candidate Filing closed – No Candidate – 2 Districts

IL-01 (Rush) – D+34,

IL-04 (Gutierrez) – D+32,

So the Republicans have confirmed candidates in 353 districts (with 2 Democrats being given free passes in 2010). Take a look at some of their challengers websites though and your eyeballs will bleed. They also have 7 districts with candidates that are considering a run and 1 district with rumoured candidates.

They also have some huge gaps in California and New York.

They already have a full House slate in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming (we have 23 such states).

They also have but one slot to fill in Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana,  Maine,  Mississippi, Missouri, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia (we have 8 such states).

And of course there is Illinois where 2 districts won’t have Republican candidates on the ballot in 2010.

Expect candidates to bob up with increasing frequency from here on in.

Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.

More updates soon.

Nevada’s Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki caught a huge break today:

Charges against Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki and his chief of staff tied to his alleged mismanagement of a college savings program were dismissed this morning in Clark County District Court.

Judge Valerie Adair issued a written ruling on arguments she heard Nov. 24 from attorneys for Krolicki and his chief of staff, Kathryn Besser, dismissing counts that stemmed from what prosecutors called mismanagement of a multi-billion dollar college savings program while Krolicki served as state treasurer. …

Adair’s ruling indicated she found the grand jury indictment to be overly vague – a point that defense attorneys had argued in their hearing on the matter two weeks ago.

In the ruling, Adair wrote, “Defendants contend that the indictment does not provide sufficient notice of the charges against them. The court agrees.”

At this point, the prosecution can either appeal or simply seek a new indictment – or do neither. The case is being handled by the state Attorney General’s office, and there’s been some unseemly political intrigue in that regard as well:

State Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto came under fire after it was learned last month that her husband had planned a fundraiser for one of Krolicki’s Democratic opponents for the lieutenant governor’s seat. At the last court date, her office offered to remove itself from the prosecution, which the defense declined.

Masto, first elected in 2006, is a Democrat herself, unsurprisingly. Her husband Paul had been helping out businessman Robert Randazzo. In any event, the big electoral news seems to be this:

A spokesman for Nevada Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki (R) says Krolicki has no plans to run for Senate even though a judge dismissed felony charges against him Monday.

Krolicki opened an exploratory committee to challenge Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) shortly after the 2008 election, but soon after he was charged with misappropriating millions of dollars in state money stemming from his time as state treasurer.

He was cleared of those charges Monday, but spokesman McKay Daniels said Krolicki won’t be entering the Senate race. Krolicki annnounced in August that he would instead seek reelection, and he’s sticking with that.

Then again, it’s not like things could get much worse for Harry Reid.

Mega-Blue Dog Allen Boyd may have a much easier route to re-election:

Florida state Sen. Al Lawson has confirmed to the St. Petersburg Times that he is considering switching from challenging Rep. Allen Boyd (D-Fla.) to the state chief financial officer race.

Democrats have struggled to find someone to run for outgoing CFO Alex Sink’s (D) post while she runs for governor. And Lawson has found it difficult to raise the money needed to run a primary against an incumbent congressman.

This comes as a bit of a surprise, as Lawson had posted an internal poll a few weeks ago giving him a 35-31 lead over Boyd, suggesting he was engaged with the race and had incentive to stay in it. (The Democratic electorate in the 2nd is substantially African-American, giving Lawson an advantage there.) As The Hill notes, though, Lawson is at a terrible financial disadvantage ($78,000, versus Boyd’s $1.7 million), and that gives Lawson — who’s termed out of the state Senate and looking for somewhere to move up — an incentive to switch over to a race where he’d be running with establishment backing instead of against it.

So: bad news for those hoping to replace a Blue Dog with a (somewhat) Better Dem… although if Lawson won the primary, he might have had a rough time of it in the general in this R+6 9 district. On the other hand, good news for Dems trying to make a full court press for all the statewide offices in Florida, with current CFO Alex Sink at the top of the ticket.

RaceTracker Wiki: FL-02

• AR-Sen: State Sen. Gilbert Baker has generally been treated as the frontrunner in the Arkansas GOP’s Senate field, and that became a little clearer over the weekend with the state party’s straw poll. It was a close race, though: Baker got 35% (out of 700 votes), followed closely by businessman and Huckabee crony Curtis Coleman at 33. The biggest surprise may be who finished 3rd: former Army colonel and “Christian identity” enthusiast Conrad Reynolds, at 23, followed by head teabagger Tom Cox at 4, state Sen. Kim Hendren an embarrassing 2, and some dudes Fred Ramey and Buddy Rogers at 2 and 1 apiece.

• LA-Sen: Republican SoS Jay Dardenne isn’t seeming to take any steps to gear up for a primary challenge to Sen. David Vitter, but he keeps not doing anything to make the rumors go away, either. Dardenne recently said he’s considering polling the race soon, which would require setting up an exploratory committee. The only poll of a Vitter/Dardenne matchup, from R2K in March, gave Vitter an 11-pt edge.

• MT-Sen: If Max Baucus is running again in 2014, this is the kind of publicity he doesn’t need in the meantime. It turns out that Baucus, who separated from his wife last year, then began an affair with his office director Melodee Hanes — and then nominated her to be Montana’s new US Attorney. She didn’t get the position, although she does now work in a different role for the DOJ.

• NC-Sen: After a lot of back and forth, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham made his campaign for the Democratic Senate nomination official today. You can see his launch video at the above link. However, Chapel Hill mayor Kevin Foy, who’d floated his name out there for the Democratic nod, confirmed that he won’t be getting in the race.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: After trumpeting the rumors a few weeks ago that Rudy Giuliani was poised to enter the Senate race against Kirsten Gillibrand, now the Daily News is assessing Rudy’s decision to take on a long-term, high-profile consulting gig as security expert for the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, and concluding that he’s not looking so likely as a candidate for anything now. Meanwhile, over on the Dem side of the aisle, Manhattan borough president Scott Stringer, who briefly planned a primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand, has now finally offered an endorsement to her.

• PA-Sen: Rep. Joe Sestak pulled in his first endorsement from a fellow Congressperson in his primary campaign against Arlen Specter. Rep. Barney Frank offered his support today, saying that he considers Sestak one of the most valuable members of Congress.

• NV-Gov: With a recent Mason-Dixon poll showing Democratic Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman with a small lead as an independent in various gubernatorial race permutations, Goodman is now publicly weighing the race. He says he’ll have an answer “real soon,” but that his wife has already given him the green light on a run.

• AL-02: Can teabagging save Bobby Bright next year? Not by him doing it (or we can only hope)… instead, Montgomery city counilor Martha Roby, the NRCC’s pick in the race, is going to face a primary challenge from the ultra-right. Businessman Rick Barber, who’s been active in local tea parties and the 9/12 Washington march, is planning to take on Roby. He has to be encouraged by an interesting new poll from Rasmussen, which suggests that, given a choice between a Democrat, a Republican, and a Tea Party member in the upcoming election, the Tea Partier would beat the Republican, 23-18 (with the Democrat prevailing at 36%).

• PA-06: Wealthy pharma executive Steven Welch, who fled from the race in the 7th to the 6th when Patrick Meehan appeared, is now earning “RINO” labels and the enmity of the RedStaters. Welch not only gave Joe Sestak $300 in 2006, but also was a registered Democrat from 2006 through 2008. Also, another GOPer is sniffing out the race (as the possible fifth entrant in the GOP field): Scott Zelov, commissioner of very wealthy and moderate Lower Merion Township on the Main Line.

• TN-08: State Sen. Roy Herron is fighting back against the wide-ranging attacks leveled against him by the NRCC, as his candidacy for the 8th enters its second week. (Recall from last week that the NRCC has been gay-baiting Herron.) Herron called the NRCC’s attacks “ridiculous and desperate,” to which the NRCC said Herron was “foaming at the mouth” and “hurling ‘Yo mama’-style insults.” As much as the NRCC is transparently guilty of what they accuse Herron of, they at least win some points for evocative language here. An article from the Tennessean lists a few other Dems who may be interested in the seat, despite Herron’s quick entry, one of whom is a big name: former state House speaker Jimmy Naifeh (who had considered a run in 1988, when John Tanner took over the seat). They also list state Sen. Doug Jackson as a possibility.

• NY-St. Sen.: State Sen. Hiram Monserrate is managing to escape his misdemeanor assault conviction with no jail time, leaving his colleagues wondering what to do with him (including censure, suspension, or expulsion). Also, good news for the Dems as they look for ways to expand their narrow majority: one of the last Republicans left in the Senate within the New York City limits, Frank Padavan, may get a top-tier challenge next year from former city councilor Tony Avella (last seen losing the mayoral primary to William Thompson).

• Mayors: Kasim Reed has been certified as elected as the new mayor of Atlanta. His opponent, city councilor Mary Norwood, still plans to request a recount of the election, decided by a margin of less than one thousand votes. In New York City, guess who finished fourth in the mayoral race: fictional character C. Montgomery Burns, who got more write-in votes than any other candidate. Why just vote for a billionaire buying the office who’s only a little bit creepy and evil, when instead you can go the Full Monty?

• History: Here’s an interesting piece of trivia: a woman was not elected to the U.S. Senate, without having been the wife or daughter of a previous Senator, until 1980. That woman was Republican Paula Hawkins, who served as Florida’s Senator for one term, and in her outspoken self-proclaimed averageness, telegenic ultra-conservatism, and resentments of liberal media elites, was something of a Sarah Palin prototype. Hawkins died over the weekend at age 82.

• Polltopia: Here’s another thoughtful article at Pollster.com on what’s driving Rasmussen’s perceptibly pro-Republican house effects, from professor Alan Abramowitz. He says that there’s more going on than just their use of a likely voter model; he sees a major difference between Rasmussen and other pollsters in terms of the Democratic advantage in party identification. Meanwhile, PPP is asking for your help yet again: they’d like your input on which House district to poll next. Should it be CO-03, CO-04, ID-01, NH-01, NM-01, NM-02, or SD-AL?

With the Democratic primary special election to replace Ted Kennedy set for tomorrow, AG Martha Coakley brought out her biggest gun last, via robocall:

Last night, her campaign announced that President Clinton had recorded the phone message.

“Martha Coakley will go to Washington to fight every day to create good jobs with good benefits and to get health reform with a strong public option,” Clinton says in the message. “You can trust her to get results in the Senate just as she has as your attorney general. This election is very important to Massachusetts. So don’t forget to vote tomorrow and please vote for Martha Coakley.”

Coakley is hoping to blunt some last-minute momentum from Rep. Michael Capuano, at least as seen in his own internal poll from pollster Tom Kiley. Kiley says that Coakley is “around” 35, with Capuano down by 7 points (for presumably 28), with Stephen Pagliuca around 10 and Alan Khazei around 7. This is quite different, naturally, from Coakley’s own internals announced on Friday, where she leads Capuano 41-20, so the question remains: is Capuano within striking distance, or not?

City Year founder Khazei doesn’t look like he’s going to be winning, but his is an interesting story, in terms of the establishment endorsements he picked up along the way. Not only did he get the Boston Globe’s endorsement, but this photo via Politico gives a hint of where the Kennedy family’s heart may lie: it shows Caroline Kennedy in attendance at Michael Bloomberg’s fundraiser for Khazei (although she did not officially endorse or even donate).

RaceTracker Wiki: MA-Sen

Public Policy Polling (pdf) (11/30-12/2, registered voters):

John Carney (D): 47

Fred Cullis (R): 24

Undecided: 29

John Carney (D): 44

Charlie Copeland (R): 32

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±4.1%)

With lots of ominous numbers in the polls for Democrats these days, here’s a ray of sunshine: the GOP’s decision to take a gamble on a Senate pickup by running Mike Castle all but assures them of losing his House seat. Former Lt. Governor (and loser of the 2008 gubernatorial primary) John Carney is poised to  pick this one up. He almost doubles-up on the only announced candidate, never-before-elected businessman Fred Cullis, and has a double-digit lead over the GOP’s best shot at holding the seat, former state Sen. and former Lt. Governor candidate Charlie Copeland. (In the only other poll of this race, R2K had Carney beating Copeland 44-21 in October.)

As one might expect, everyone here, even Carney, is pretty much unknown: Carney is at 27/18 favorables, while Copeland is at 15/19 and Cullis is basically Generic R at this point, which is good for 3/10. PPP points out in a separate release that 24% of Delawareans have a positive impression of congressional Republicans (not coincidentally, the same number who are voting for Cullis), which shows us what we’re up against in terms of Castle’s personal appeal and his ability to transcend his party’s brand in his home state. Delaware pols not up for election in 2010 are in fine shape: Gov. Jack Markell is at 40/31 faves, and Sen. Tom Carper’s at 44/31.

RaceTracker Wiki: DE-AL

Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (11/30-12/2, likely voters, no trendlines):

Dina Titus (D-inc): 40

Joe Heck (R): 40

Undecided: 20

Dina Titus (D-inc): 48

Rob Lauer (R): 32

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±6%)

This is one of the first media polls we’ve seen of a 2010 House race, and things don’t look so hot: Rep. Dina Titus is tied against former state Sen. Joe Heck. Heck, you may recall, dropped down from the gubernatorial race to sub in for highly touted rich guy banker John Guedry. (Guedry claimed he bailed on the race for allegedly personal reasons – not long after it came out that his bank received $400 million in TARP funds while cutting him a fat bonus check.) Titus herself was a replacement candidate, joining the race last year after prosecutor Robert Daskas dropped out.

Heck doesn’t have the primary field to himself, though. Real estate “investor” (is that like developer?) Rob Lauer looks to be running to Heck’s right and has said he’ll put $100,000 of his own money into the race. Heck’s biggest sin appears to be his initial refusal to sign an anti-tax pledge (he later changed his mind); with the Republican base exceedingly intolerant of any apostasy these days, this may wind up hurting him. It’s still very early (the primary is June 8th), but we’ll see if Lauer can gain any traction among the teabagger set.

In the meantime, Titus has plenty to be concerned about. One bit of good news is that she leads among independents, 46-37. But the real story is among self-identified Democrats, where she only has a 68-9 margin. Heck, on the other hand, gets the support of Republicans at an 80-2 rate. The fact that 23% of the members of Titus’s own party aren’t sure that they want to support her speaks to broader concerns about the energy and excitement (or lack thereof) within the Democratic base. She’ll need to consolidate those voters in order to secure a second term.

Mase-Dix also asked if voters approved of Titus’s vote in favor of the healthcare reform bill. By a 41-47 margin, they said no. The fact that indies were opposed 38-50 yet she still leads them in the horserace is also a good sign – this vote isn’t a dealbreaker. Dems also approve of healthcare reform by wide margins. The difficulty is that Republicans disapprove of it by even wider margins. Will touting healthcare reform therefore motivate the other side more than your own? It’s a tough situation.

Furthermore, as Tim Sahd points out, the Las Vegas area has been especially hard-hit by the recession and the housing bust. This isn’t helping Titus either. Obviously this is just one poll, and we’re a long way off from election day. Still, she’s in the bottom half of Frontline Dems when it comes to fundraising, and like a lot of members of Team Blue, she has a lot of hard work ahead of her.

Alright, here’s sort of a group trivia question: Which open seat House races (including special elections) have the Democrats lost since 1994? I’m sure that together, we can name them all.

UPDATE: I think this chart covers it. Let me know if I’ve missed any.

The Michigan and Pennsylvania races in 2002, the Texas races in 2004 and the LA-05 race in 1996 were all due to redistricting. Obviously the Texas races pose a bit of a definitional problem, since most of the affected Dem incumbents ran in different districts (or at least, renumbered districts). But I’ve left TX-10, 11 & 24 on the list because there were indeed no incumbents who ran in those races. TX-02 is a little trickier, because Jim Turned retired outright, but incumbent Nick Lampson ran in the 2nd CD (albeit a very different-looking 2nd CD). But I think it merits inclusion.

And here’s an interesting tidbit: Not counting losses attributable to redistricting, Dems have lost 27 open seats and 12 incumbents since 1994, for a total of 39 over a 15-year period. To take back the House, the GOP needs to win two more than that total – 41.

I was playing around with the newly-updated Dave’s Application that has partisan numbers and was inspired to draw a few new maps for fun !  (I think I like doing this just a little too much …)

MattTX2 inspired me in this post when he said: “One other thing I recently noticed is that in the southern half of the Eastern Shore there are some strong GOP areas have high relatively high African American populations but are still pretty strongly GOP (Talbot, Dorchester, and everything to the South). Those could theoretically be given to Donna Edwards MD-04, bringing it down to the mid/high 60s Obama% while following the voting rights act. That frees up some more heavily Democratic areas in Prince George’s County for other districts. Then MD-01 can stretch around most of the rest of the northern part of the Chesapeake Bay, and into Baltimore to make that seat Democratic.”

At first glance, I thought the same thing as others (and what I’ve always though too) that the Eastern Shore shouldn’t be split and that it would be a very tough sell for the Legislature to do during redistricting – and probably this conventional wisdom is still correct … BUT, what if the Shore can be split ?  the way to do it would be to neatly split the Upper Shore from the Lower Shore … if the Legislature went for any splitting of the Shore, it might be when done in such a manner, as the two parts of the Shore are somewhat distinct when split along this line.  

MattTX2 is correct that drawing the lines this way would be the most economical way for Democrats to free up more Democratic areas in PG Co. to be used for other districts on the western shore.  The plan here keeps both MD-4 and MD-7 majority African-American (50%+) while making every other district either 59% Obama (MD-1, MD-3, and MD-6) or 60% Obama (MD-2, MD-5 and MD-8).  This is marginally even better than the plan I originally drew in September, where I had Obama with at least 58% in each district:  http://www.swingstateproject.c…  It appears that the only way to get to at least 59%-60% Obama for each Maryland district, WHILE keeping the two majority black districts intact, is to use the Lower Eastern Shore in this manner.  

Here’s the map:

MAP 1: At least 59% Obama in each district; both black-majority districts preserved

This is advantageous in that all districts now will be solidly Democratic.  MD- 3 currently is itself 59% Obama, so it will be just as Democratic under the new lines as it currently is. MD-1 and MD-6 will, ofcourse, be a lot more Democratic than they currently are — at 59% Obama under the new lines.  MD-2 is now at 60% Obama, and that will not change.  In MD-5 and MD-8 the Democratic percentage will go down ofcourse, but at 60% Obama, they will still be very safe districts for us.  Interestingly, both Hoyer and Van Hollen are near the top of the Democratic power hierarchy, so they should have the resources to win in 60% Obama districts.  Hoyer might even like this less-Democratic district better, as it’s also less African-American and thus the lesser likelihood of a Democratic primary challenge for Hoyer in the future.  Van Hollen’s new district is one, btw, where the John Kerry percentage would be around 55% even under the new lines, as Obama’s improvement on Kerry was not as great in Montg. Co. and western MD as in other parts of the state (in all other districts drawn here, Kerry would have received at least approx. 53% of the vote).

While the black percentage in the new MD-4 and MD-7 will only be 50%+ black (which will satisfy the VRA), these districts will also be guaranteed to have continued black representation because in both districts, blacks as a percentage of the Democratic primary will still be at around 70%, and when it comes to the general election, the new MD-4 and MD-7 voted 70% Obama and 67% Obama, respectively.  

I have also kept the home of each incumbent in the district in which they currently are under the new lines.  Although my “TTP” scores are lower than in an ideal situation, each district manages to preserve at least 30% of the territory of the current district (but in most cases here, hovers around 40%, with the new MD-8 being an exception in that a full 56% of the population is preserved – although, ironically, the new MD-8 “looks” quite different on a map).

The second map I drew for fun is an EVIL 5-3 Republican gerrymander !  It’s possible to redraw Maryland in a manner where McCain wins 5 districts (albeit all 5 by the slightest margin) while Obama wins MD-4 and MD-7 by 92% and 90%, respectively, while MD-8 is 75% Obama.  Here it is:

MAP 2: Evil 5-3 GOP gerrymander

Under the map above, MD-4 and MD-7 are 68% and 69% black, respectively, while the new MD-8 is only at 49% white (blacks and Hispanics both at 17% and Asians at 13%).  This would be a GOP dream come true.  Perhaps Kratovil or Hoyer could still win the new MD-1 but it wouldn’t be guaranteed.  The GOP could draft Ehrlich to run for his old MD-2 again, or perhaps the new MD-3, as Ehrlich grew up in Arbutus.  Bartlett could still face a strong Democratic challenge in his new MD-6, but another GOPer could be a lot stronger there.  The new MD-5 could easily go Republican if they ran an Anne Arundel-based moderate to conservative candidate.  It’s interesting to note that under the EVIL GOP plan, the districts appear fairly compact and overall seem to respect county lines and “communities of interest” (!) a lot more than the first map I drew.

Here’s another fun map link: the 50 largest metro areas, carved out of their respective states and resized (along with the diced-up states) by population. No surprise that NYC, L.A., and Chicago are the three biggest, and even without their major metro areas, Texas and California are the two biggest states. The third-largest state, though, is interesting. Click and have a look.

Also, check out this bit of awesomeness from the WaPo:

Correction

Thursday, December 3, 2009

A Nov. 26 article in the District edition of Local Living incorrectly said a Public Enemy song declared 9/11 a joke. The song refers to 911, the emergency phone number.