Swing State Project

I love do-over polls, especially when they show numbers like this, and especially when they feature John Kasich.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/10-13, Ohio voters, no trendlines):

Q: If you could do last fall’s election for Governor over again, would you vote for Democrat Ted Strickland or Republican John Kasich?

Ted Strickland (D): 55

John Kasich (R-inc): 40

Undecided: 5

Q: In the election for Governor last year did you vote for Democrat Ted Strickland or Republican John Kasich, or did you not vote in the election?

Ted Strickland (D): 49

John Kasich (R-inc): 46

Didn’t vote/don’t remember: 5

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Kasich’s job approval (the first tested by PPP) is a truly miserable 35-54. PPP also posed a question on SB5, a bill which would institute “right-to-work” in the state of Ohio. This legislation, once law, would almost certainly go before the voters in the form of a ballot question, probably this November. It’s definitely helping to drag Kasich down:

Q: If Senate Bill 5, which would limit collective bargaining rights for public employees, passes the legislature and is signed by the Governor there may be a statewide vote this fall on repealing the bill. Would you vote to repeal Senate Bill 5 or would you vote to let the law stand, or are you not sure?

Would vote to repeal SB5: 54

Would vote to let the law stand: 31

Not sure: 15

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Once again, I’ll let Tom have the final words:

Of course the reality is that Democratic leaning voters did this to themselves to some extent. It’s a small sample but among those who admit they didn’t vote last fall, Strickland has a 57-13 advantage over Kaisch. It was a similar story in Wisconsin the other week where Tom Barrett led Scott Walker 59-22 among those who had stayed at home in 2010. Democratic voters simply did not understand the consequences – or didn’t care – of their not voting last fall and they’re paying the price right now. But the winners of that realization in the long run may be Barack Obama, Sherrod Brown, and Herb Kohl – these states are already looking politically a whole lot more like 2008 than 2010.

Via (who else?) Jon Ralston:

In a statement teeming with conservative shibboleths, Rep. Dean Heller announced his candidacy this morning for U.S. Sen. John Ensign’s seat in an email to supporters. Heller has been widely expected to run since he released a poll a few weeks ago showing him crushing Ensign, who announced his retirement last week.

Ralston also has a link to the email itself (PDF).

• CT-Sen: Paulist gazillionaire (and very failed 2010 Senate candidate) Peter Schiff says he’s moving to Florida because a proposed increase in the state’s top income tax rate from 6.5% to 6.7% means, according to Schiff: “Basically, what they’re saying is, ‘If you stay in Connecticut, you’re going to get mugged. You’re going to get raped.'” THAT’S EXACTLY RIGHT. A TWO-TENTHS PERCENT TAX HIKE ON THE RICH IS EXACTLY LIKE RAPE. Schiff then asked out loud, “The question is, do I really have a political future in Connecticut?” NO YOU DO NOT.

Meanwhile, despite the presence of two very big names already in the race, another Democrat says he’s thinking about getting in: state Rep. William Tong, the first Asian American elected to CT’s General Assembly and also a former law student of Barack Obama’s, says he’ll decide “shortly.” This sounds more like a reputation/name rec-enhancing move that a serious bid, though, as Tong is only in his late 30s.

• DE-Sen: The Christine O’Donnell watch is on, with the key (the only) question being whether she’ll launch a hopeless challenge to Gov. Jack Markell next year, or whether she’ll wait to launch a hopeless rematch against Sen. Chris Coons in 2014.

• FL-Sen: So here’s how you work up to a Senate bid these days. First, get your name circulated in early, unsourced media reports about “potential” candidates – you know, the kind of spitballing pieces which just list out various names based on speculation. Then, have a surrogate (probably on a not-for-attribution basis – they can call `em “an individual close to” you) tell the press they know you’re thinking about the race. Then, do some interviews yourself where you admit to actually considering a run, but that you need to discuss it with your family first/wait until the legislative session is over/see how the field develops/get the results of a poll back, etc. Then, once you’ve finally done all of this, you can take the bold step of… forming an exploratory committee. That’s where we finally are with Republican state Rep. (and former Majority Leader) Adam Hasner. Exciting, isn’t it?

• IN-Sen: This probably means more for the endorser than the endorsee, but embattled Sen. Dick Lugar (he’ll be referred to as “embattled” for the next year-plus) just got the backing of his home-state governor, Mitch Daniels. While in a more civilized age, this might be done just as common courtesy, the threat of getting teabagged often has Republicans clamming up when they get near their wobblier comrades. (Fellow Hoosier Sen. and all-around loser Dan Coats (R) has refused to support Lugar.) But like I said, this is a bigger deal for Daniels, who has presidential aspirations (yet is probably as wobbly as Lugar himself): the teabaggers are already calling for his head.

• MA-Sen: More staffing emails in the MA-Sen race-is this going to be the next frontier in tea leaf-reading? Anyhow, consultant Dorie Clark of Sommerville sent a job posting out into the aether seeking a press secretary, but refused to tell the Globe who she’s working for. The Globe notes that Rep. Mike Capuano (who lost in the Dem special primary in 2009) is also from Sommervile-as is activist Bob Massie, but he says the posting wasn’t on his behalf.

• ME-Sen: The Hotline already did this for Dick Lugar, so now they do it for Olympia Snowe – that is, they take a look at what it would take for her to run as an independent. The answer:

If Snowe wishes to run as an independent, she must file a withdrawal from the Republican Party by March 1, 2012-more than 3 months before the June 10 primary. If she did withdraw, she would need between 4,000 and 6,000 petitions from registered voters by June 1 to get on the ballot as an independent candidate.

A Snowe spokesperson insists, though, that his boss is running as a Republican. In other Maine news, PPP has one of its scorecards out (PDF), finding Gov. Paul LePage already underwater with approvals of 43-48. A narrow 47-45 plurality supports gay marriage (which was narrowly rejected by voters in 2009).

• MT-Sen: All politics definitely is not local anymore (if it ever was), but sometimes it still is. A looming issue in the Montana Senate race? The status of the gray wolf, which is on the Endangered Species List but which Montanans want to start hunting. (Farmers complain the wolves kill livestock, while hunters complain the wolves kill elk – which they want to kill themselves.) Roll Call explains the fault line between Republican Denny Rehberg and Dem Jon Tester:

Rehberg’s proposal would eliminate wolves from the list forever, and not just in the Big Sky State but nationwide. Tester prefers allowing wolves to be hunted in Montana and Idaho, while placing hunting control in the hands of state officials with federal oversight.

• NV-Sen: The Fix’s Rachel Weiner says that that unnamed (and unquoted!) “Democratic strategists” are saying they might actually prefer someone like Ross Miller to Rep. Shelley Berkley, who has already been elected statewide and doesn’t have “strong ties” to Las Vegas, which I guess is a potential liability.

• VA-Sen: God, could the Tim Kaine watch get any more tedious? I can’t even bear to go into the details of yesterday’s silliness, but now a DNC spokesman is saying that Kaine is “increasingly likely” to run. Whatever. Kaine did say last weekend at that Rick Boucher dinner that “I think we’ll make the decision this week,” but “when we’ll announce it I’m not quite sure.” Groan. I have no problem with politicians taking their time, but this endless media shtick is really tiresome. My personal feeling is that the beltway bloviators are unsually interested in this bit of kremlinology because Kaine is “of” their world in a way that few potential candidates ever are.

• WI-Sen: Is this the best we can do? Really? An unnamed “Senate Democratic leadership aide” said of Herb Kohl’s re-election intentions: “We’re pretty confident he’s going to do it.” As I’ve said before, I think you either get the answer locked down early, before reporters start asking (and hell, it’s an obvious question, given Kohl’s extremely… shall we say understated approach to governance and his age) – or you go out and say, “We know Herb will make a decision when he’s ready.” Playing the guessing game makes you look like a chump.

• LA-Gov: Progressive blog Daily Kingfish is reporting, based on their own sources, that Democrat Caroline Fayard, contrary to other reports, is “seriously contemplating” (their words) a gubernatorial run. Fayard, who lost last year’s Lt. Gov. race, is also said to be considering a run for Secretary of State. Note that Fayard did link to the Kingfish story on her own website.

• OH-Gov: Ah, it warms my heart: The University of Cincinnati finds that Republican Gov. John Kasich’s job approval is just 40-47, with independents giving him an ugly 30-52 rating. Loves it.

• WA-Gov: The basic rule of thumb about Republicanism in Washington is that you can get elected statewide if and only if you’re moderate and technocratic enough that the “R” next to your name can get overlooked; that’s how Rob McKenna got elected AG twice. So McKenna’s decision to throw his lot in with the multi-state anti-HCR suit spearheaded by Ken Cuccinelli always seemed a baffling act of pulling the curtain away on his, well, Republicanism… and now he’s in full backpedal mode, with an explanation so contorted (something about how he actually likes everything in the bill except the individual mandate, and it’s all the Dems fault for forgetting to include the severability clause that led to the Vinson ruling) that it’s not going to win over any Dems and only going to make him look weaker to the local teabaggery.

The Seattle PI also points out how little room for error McKenna has with his needle-threading, in a state where the Republican base, as a percentage of the state’s population, is the smallest of any state not in the Northeast. The numbers are 41% Dem base, 31% swing voters, and 29% GOP base. In case you’re wondering, those numbers are from a Nate Silver post from last week, using Annenberg Election Survey data for every state; if you didn’t see the piece, please go back and take a look, as it’s remarkable even by Nate’s usual high standards. (Crisitunity)

• CA-36: Finally da herb come around: Gov. Jerry Brown announced that the special all-candidate top-two “primary” to fill Jane Harman’s seat will be held on May 17th. If no one can get 50%+1 that day, then the race goes to a run-off between the top two vote-getters-which seems very likely-regardless of party. (So yes, we could have a D vs. D second round.)

• FL-22: Looks like Ron Klein won’t be seeking a rematch against Allen West in 2012: Reid Wilson twitterizes that the former Dem congressman is taking a job with a Florida lobbying firm.

• MO-03: Is there a more talked-about likely redistricting victim than Russ Carnahan? I guess he has a somewhat odd combination of a famous name + junior status, so maybe that explains it. Anyhow, Carnahan says he’s “100% focused” on seeking re-election, regardless of what happens with redistricting, and that he isn’t thinking about a Lt. Gov. run (an idea which came up in the media recently).

• NY-13: We mentioned a very similar story a little while back, but here’s more confirmation that freshman Republican Mike Grimm actually wants to win re-election: He’s calling on his fellows GOPers to support another short-term government funding bill, though he manages to sneak some Pelosi-bashing in there as well. The wingnuts don’t want to play ball because (sayeth The Hill) the continuing resolution “does not contain riders defunding Planned Parenthood and the healthcare reform law.” Gooood luck with that. Anyhow, while I never want to rule anything out, I feel like teabaggers would have a hard time taking Grimm down. Hopefully I’m wrong!

• Wisconsin Recall: Greg Sargent says that the Wisconsin Democratic Party is telling him they’ve collected 45% of the signatures “necessary to hold recall elections.” Greg also notes that only a quarter of the time period for gathering petitions has elapsed. However, I put the exact phrase in quotes because it’s not clear from the piece whether Dems are benchmarking off the legal minimum, or whether they are using a higher target – which you need, because some signatures are invariably going to be found invalid. Still, this sounds like a pretty good pace to me.

Also today, look for full polling results a little later today from Daily Kos in each of the eight GOP-held recall targets.

• Special elections: Johnny Longtorso (who else?):

Just one seat is up today (the last special election for the month of March): Pennsylvania’s Reading-based SD-11, where the long-time incumbent recently passed away. The Democrat running is Judy Schwank, a former Berks County Commissioner, while the Republicans have Larry Medaglia, the Berks County Register of Wills. Trivia note: Register of Wills is an elected office in only three states, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware. It’s a pretty Democratic district-it went about 60-40 for Obama-but of course these low-turnout elections can produce weird results.

It sounds like Republicans have given up, though: Medaglia’s paid media campaign has gone dark.

• WATN?: Blarggh….

Redistricting Roundup

• Arizona: This overview piece of Arizona’s redistricting situation is mostly speculation, but it does go into a discussion of where recent growth has been, per the newest census numbers.

• California: Crisitunity already said as much, but at least one expert agrees with us that the Bay Area is pretty much going to have to lose a seat: Tony Quinn, an editor of the California Target Book, a well-known Golden State political publication.

• Iowa: The Des Moines Register has a fun little Iowa redistricting tool you can play around with. Of course, the process is a lot easier in the Hawkeye State because state law requires that whole counties be kept intact. (Hat tip: Dave Wasserman)

• Mississippi: A big black eye for Lt. Gov., state Senate President, and gubernatorial hopeful Phil Bryant: The Republican-controlled Senate voted down his proposed map for that body and instead voted in favor of the the map that senators themselves originally drew. A key point of contention is the Hattiesburg area, which would get turned into a majority-minority district under the Senate plan but would remain cracked under Bryant’s.

• Nevada: Some Democrats are rooting for a Shelley Berkley Senate run for reasons other than what you might expect: If her 1st CD seat opens up, that makes redistricting a lot easier for Dems in the state legislature eager to carve her seat up. The piece also mentions two names who might succeed Berkley in the House if she makes the jump: Assembly Speaker John Oceguera and Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford.

This diary presents two different flavors of Ohio maps: Fair Districts (a la Florida) and GOP-Friendly. Ohio doesn’t have partisan data in the App, so these maps represent my best guesses. I definitely consider these maps to be more discussion-starters about maps under the newly-released 2010 data than polished proposals. In the comments, please feel free to share your own maps or information about local partisan leanings that needs to be taken into account.

Fair Districts

Ohio’s geography doesn’t lend itself to “must draw” fair-districts as much as Florida’s does, but I think this is a pretty good stab at it. All three of the counties big enough to support a single district have them, and the rest of the districts are reasonably compact. There are 13 counties statewide split between two or more districts. Columbus is the only incorporated locality split between districts. This is mostly because Columbus has some bizarrely intricate boundaries that are hard to follow. I ended up using the Scioto River as my boundary guide instead of city limits.

If my ratings are to be trusted (and they probably aren’t), this would be a 9 R – 7 D map. VRA note: OH-15 is a plurality African American district, 47.0% VAP.

GOP Friendly

I used the first map as a base, which is probably not the best idea. But I like good-government maps, and I wanted to try to find a GOP map that conformed at least somewhat to good-government principles. All changes described are relative to the Fair Districts map above.

The basic idea here is to pair up Turner and Austria in a Dayton-based district and to pair up Fudge and Kucinich in a Cleveland-based district. Columbus also gets a Democratic vote sink, which means that this map calls for the Republicans to take the hit on both seats. That might not sound “GOP-Friendly”, but they’re maxed out in Ohio post-2010. I think 11-5 is not a bad target for them.

So what’s changed?

First, Cincinnati. Hamilton County is about 80k too many people for a district. In my Fair Districts map, that 80k were suburban whites added to Boehner’s district. In my GOP-Friendly map, that 80k is a plurality-African-American strip along the Ohio River, mainly in downtown Cincinnati, added to Schmidt’s district. Schmidt might not be able to carry a district that incorporates that part of Hamilton. But most Republicans should be able to, so I think worst case scenario is that they lose that district for a cycle. I’ve also wrapped Boehner’s district around Dayton again, so that he has more of his current constituents.

Second, the northwest. Kaptur’s (under this map) OH-08 has been stretched eastwards, pulling OH-07 and OH-09 north. OH-07 and OH-09 have also swapped some territory. I’m pretty sure under the Fair Districts maps the district that Latta lives in has more of Jordan’s old constituents and vice versa. I tried to rectify that here.

Third, the northeast. There are some major changes here. OH-08 and OH-09 have subsumed Lorain County. This has push OH-14 south and east, where it picks up all of Cuyahoga outside of OH-15 and plunges down into Summitt County and (re)gains Sutton as its incumbent. OH-12 becomes a dumbbell-shaped district linking Akron and Youngstown. It does some swapping with the neighboring OH 16 and OH 11 to get incumbents’ residences right. OH-13 drops out of Lorain and picks up Ashland, shoring it up relative to the Fair Districts map. I would be worried as a Republican about LaTourette, because without partisan data, I’m not sure were he stands in that district.

Fourth, the southwest. Johnson’s district drops Youngstown, to his relief. It stretches south into OH-04 (which went into Cincinnati). It still needs to grow though, so it pushes OH-10 north. This is convenient, because OH-10 needed to come north so that Gibbs would live in it. (I think he lives in Holmes County, but I’m not sure.)

Lastly, Columbus. This probably ought to change, since if the Republicans do create a Democratic vote sink here, they’ll want it to be the best one possible. But without partisan data by precinct, I have no idea what that looks like. If the Republicans aren’t willing to concede a distrct in Columbus (which seems likely, if foolhardy), I think they should probably look at splitting Franklin four ways. Again, without partisan data (and without knowing where exactly Stivers lives), it’s hard to say what that should look like. But here’s a possibility:

(I’m bumping this one up. Not a single map as yet? Come on, people! – promoted by DavidNYC)

So Politico has some details about an incumbent protection map that’s supposedly been agreed to in Virginia:

Members of Virginia’s House delegation unanimously agreed to a redistricting plan that will protect all of their seats and strengthen the three GOP freshmen who ousted Democratic incumbents last November, POLITICO has learned.

The new map, according to multiple sources in both parties who are familiar with the plan, was crafted in the past month chiefly by Virginia’s eight GOP members. But it has received crucial private support from the state’s three House Democrats – notably Rep. Gerry Connolly, who barely survived reelection last November and whose Capitol Beltway-area district would get a Democratic bump.

The delegation is hoping for legislative approval in three weeks when the politically divided General Assembly convenes a special session.

So here’s the contest: Though the details are sketchy, draw what you think this map might look like using Dave’s Redistricting App. Make sure to read the entire Politico piece – most of the details are on the second page. Dave Wasserman has some ideas (here and here), but what are yours?

UPDATE: Looks like we have three entries so far: sawolf, okiedem, and drobertson. Whaddya think?

Dist.	Incumbent	Approve	Dis- approve	Support Recall	Oppose Recall	Vote Incumbent	Vote Democrat	Number of Responses
2	Rob Cowles	32	40	36	39	45	43	2,199
8	Alberta Darling	51	42	38	54	52	44	1,333
10	Sheila Harsdorf	43	43	38	47	48	44	2,385
14	Luther Olsen	32	42	40	39	47	49	2,307
18	Randy Hopper	38	47	44	33	44	49	2,550
20	Glenn Grothman	49	30	28	53	60	32	2,561
28	Mary Lazich	35	29	26	44	56	34	2,471
32	Dan Kapanke	41	55	52	44	41	55	2,759

(Please give a warm welcome to brownsox (aka Arjun Jaikumar) who is joining our horserace superteam – promoted by DavidNYC)

Pretty reasonable numbers, but a dodgy-looking sample.

Western New England College (PDF) (3/6-10, Massachusetts voters):

Michael Capuano (D): 38

Scott Brown (R-inc): 51

Elizabeth Warren (D): 34

Scott Brown (R-inc): 51

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The toplines are pretty much in line with what other pollsters have shown, like PPP. Brown has a solid lead, hovering around 50%, while his prospective opponents aren’t especially well known (one difference between WNEC’s poll and PPP’s is that Mike Capuano, tested in both polls, has impeccable 30/14 favorables in WNEC’s poll and pretty lousy 26/27 favorables in PPP’s).

Brown also leads Elizabeth Warren, who WNEC decided to poll for reasons best known to them (though check out those 17/3 favorables – Mike Beebe, eat your heart out!)

Like a lot of university polls, though, WNEC’s sample seems bizarre – 34% Democrats, 12% Republicans and 47% independents (the remainder responded “something else”). That’s very low on Democrats for a Massachusetts poll – the 2008 exit polls were 43% Dem, 17% Republican, 40% indie. Still, the toplines are close enough to everybody else’s numbers that they seem likely to be accurate. So the question is, can Brown lose?

He’s popular, but unlikely to get much more popular than he already is, especially as he continues to vote with Republican leadership to cut jobs and slash Medicare benefits. And popular Republicans can lose in Massachusetts in Presidential election years – ask former Governor Bill Weld, who ran for the Senate after receiving an eye-popping 71% of the vote in his 1994 reelection. Weld lost to John Kerry by seven points, 52% to 45%, helped in no small part by Bill Clinton’s 33-point romp in Massachusetts.

So sure, Brown can lose. He starts in a strong position for reelection, though, and it will take an exceptional campaign to unseat him.

Dave’s Redistricting Application is now a project of ProgressiveCongress.org. Woohoo!

[Update: CA is ready!]

This means that more members and visitors of Progressive Congress will get to know about DRA and that more users of DRA will get to know about Progressive Congress. This means that the Progressive Congress team will be providing advice and guidance for DRA. (Some of Darcy’s suggestions have already been included in the app, in fact.) This means that Progressive Congress and DRA will be teaming up to help you better understand what’s going on with redistricting and what you can do about it. And this means working together to make government better for the people!

This also means that you can now make tax-deductible contributions to support the Dave’s Redistricting Project. Your support, whether it’s $10 or $500 will help keep the project going with the rest of the 2010 data, election data and more features. It will also help support the awesome work done by ProgressiveCongress.org

Cross-posted at DailyKos. Latest DRA info below the fold.

Here’s the latest on the application:

— 29 states now have 2010 data. The new ones are AZ, CT, ID, OH, PA, WI. (CA soon!)

— VA and MD have election data, now including actual vote counts (except absentees are not places in any precinct and so are left out). More election data expected soon.

— Bug workaround: if you have trouble with the Pan control, you should be able to Save your work now.

Thanks to all of you users. Keep the feedback coming. Thank you SwingStateProject! Special thanks to Darcy Burner for making this partnership a reality.

• AZ-Sen: This is amusingly insane. I’m certainly all for it!

• CA-Sen: Our long national nightmare is finally over: Meg Whitman says she will “definitely not” run against Sen. Diane Feinstein (D) next year. Rather, she says she’s going to spend time campaigning for fellow rich guy Mitt Romney. (Also, here’s an amusing tidbit: Earlier this year, she joined the board of none other than Hewlett-Packard – the company her 2010 Republican ticket-mate Carly Fiorina nearly ran into the ground.)

• CT-Sen: In an interesting development, fans of magical realism have been making a push for Borges to enter the Connecticut Senate race. Ah, wait. What’s that? Fuck. So, um, former state Treasurer Frank Borges (D), who left office in 1993, says supporters are asking him to run, and while’s he’s thinking about it, he’s set no timetable for a decision. Borges is CEO of a private equity firm (so I’m guessing he’s pretty rich), and he’d be the state’s first black senator if successful.

• FL-Sen: Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) is starting to sound like a “no” for the Senate race. Now that he’s scored a spot on the Ways & Means Committee, he says he’s less likely to seek a promotion. In fact, he very explicitly said: “If this hadn’t happened, I would have been looking to do something else.” That sort of talk has to make you figure that the GOP’s takeover of the House has actually been bad news for one Republican: NRSC chair John Cornyn.

In much sillier (and related) news, Cornyn told The Hill that he had tried to recruit former congressman and current MSNBC host Joe Scarborough to run against Bill Nelson. Undoubtedly, this made make Rep. Connie Mack a little hot under the collar, because the NRSC wigged out and Cornyn weirdly tried to claim the story was “not true,” even though Scarborough confirmed it. Rather, said Cornyn, he had been asking Joescar about a potential Senate run in… New York. (The Atlanta-born, Alabama-educated, Florida-elected Scarborough’s tv show is based in NYC.) Then, the NRSC took a dump on Joe, saying: “There are already a number of far stronger candidates looking at the Florida Senate race….” Whoops!

Also, there’s a tenative Biden alert! – the VPOTUS supposedly will come down to Florida later this month to raise money for Bill Nelson.

• IA-Sen: Wingnut Bob Vander Plaats, who did surprisingly well against now-Gov. Terry Branstad in last year’s Republican gubernatorial primary (with an assist from some Democratic ratfuckers), was asked whether he’s contemplating a run against Sen. Tom Harkin in 2014. Said BVP: “I think about it daily. That doesn’t mean I’m going to run against him, Ok. I don’t know.”

• IN-Sen: Now this is fucking interesting. I’m just going to let SSP commenter Bob Bobson summarize the situation:

WISH-TV’s Jim Shella noted on his blog today that that there exists a hypothetical but plausible scenario in which state Democrats could sue to overturn the results of last year’s election for Secretary of State by arguing that Charlie White wasn’t a valid candidate for office. That’s not really anything new, and has been rumored in the Hoosier political press for a while.

What is new here is that Shella points out that such a lawsuit, were it ruled in favor of the Democrats, wouldn’t just remove White from office, but would also make the Republicans a “minor party” under state law. SSPers probably remember the whole [10]% threshold thing from the Colorado governor’s race last year where Dan Maes’ trainwreck candidacy nearly cost the Colorado Republicans their ballot position as a major party, and there’s a similar regulation at play here. The difference is that in Indiana, it’s the Secretary of State race that decides which parties are “major,” and the threshold is [also] 10%. If White’s candidacy is invalidated, though, that could mean that the Republicans, legally, received zero votes in the SoS race last year.

That outcome would also mean that their nominating process for statewide candidates for the next four years would be via convention and not primary. And that means Dick Lugar becomes the next Bob Bennett.

In related news, Sean Keefer, who as Deputy Secretary of State was no. 2 to Charlie White (and also served as his chief of staff, and before that, as his campaign manager) just resigned, and there’s a report that White’s spokesman will also quit. Even better: White staged a totally bizarro impromptu press conference on the courthouse steps after a hearing in which he pleaded not guilty to all charges. The presser only ended after White’s attorney told him to “shut up” and led him away by the elbow. Fun times!

• MA-Sen: Deborah Shah, a consultant to Newton Mayor Setti Warren, sent around an email (I’m guessing to some listservs) looking for college kids interested in working on a potential Warren Senate campaign, set to be staffing up at the end of April. (Aren’t most students stressing about finals at that point?) Shah says that “This is just the first step to make sure you’re prepared.”

• MI-Sen: Pete Hoekstra hasn’t yet said if one of these days a Congressman from Michigan’s gonna come back home and run a Senate race, but he expects to decide this spring. One tea leaf suggests he’s rather stay focused on his lame-ass-looking consulting firm: He just shuttered his House campaign account, which he could have instantly turned into a Senate fund.

• OH-Sen: In response to ex-Gov. Ted Strickland calling him “scurrilous,” “bigoted,” “reprehensible,” and “laughable,” the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that Republican state Treasurer Josh Mandel “said Strickland is a good person.” Maybe that makes Mandel look big, I dunno, but does it also make him look like a wuss to his biggest supporters, the teabag contingent? At the same q-and-a with other GOP elected officials, SoS Jon Husted (who has declined a run) said he’d like to see Mandel take on Sherrod Brown, while AG (and ex-Sen.) Mike DeWine much more amusingly said that a Brown-Mandel matchup would be “fascinating.” Is that Mr. Spock fascinating, or a trainwreck fascinating?

• AZ-08: Rep. Gabby Giffords’ doctors gave an update on the congresswoman’s recovery on Friday, and they sounded very upbeat about her progress (though they noted that it’s not a sure thing whether she’ll attend her husband’s space shuttle launch next month, contra what a staffer said last week). Meanwhile, 2010 Republican candidate Jesse Kelly, who very nearly beat Giffords, set up a new campaign committee for a potential rematch.

• CA-37: Though Rep. Laura Richardson (D) previously denied it, a letter of resignation sent by her former district scheduler suggests that the congresswoman is indeed the subject of an ethics probe, pertaining to misuse of staff. Now Richardson’s office is simply refusing to comment. The staffer’s letter is really brutal, citing “constant verbal and emotional abuse” and requests that she perform tasks “on the ethical borderline.” I can’t imagine Richardson has a very long future in Congress (she originally won office in a 2007 special with just 37% of the primary vote in this very blue district), so who do you think could replace her?

• NM-01, NM-Sen: State Sen. Eric Griego (D), who is considering a run for the House if fellow Dem Martin Heinrich decides to go for the Senate race, says he expects “the smoke to clear” by April or May, in terms of people making decisions about what they’re gonna do.

• NV-02: Jon Ralston says that retired Navy Commander Kirk Lippold is “in” the race for Nevada’s 2nd congressional district, which ought to have a very interesting GOP primary, at the least. Lippold, who was captain of the USS Cole when it was bombed by Al Qaeda a decade ago, was touted as a possible challenger to Harry Reid last year.

• NV-03: Freshman Rep. Joe Heck was the only Republican to vote against defunding the Federal Housing Administration Refinance Program (designed to help homeowners with underwater mortgages). Anticipating criticism, he put out a video press release (an actual video press release, not a “tv ad with a tiny buy designed to get free media attention”) defending his vote. Could Heck be worried about getting teabagged?

• NY-26: Republican nominee Jane Corwin just received the Independence Party’s nomination for the special election as well, and ya know, this is a pretty darn good demonstration of why the Democrats’ dithering on selecting a candidate has been a pretty dumb move. I mean, even if the IP wanted to endorse a Dem, they couldn’t! (Or at least, couldn’t do so yet.)

Anyhow, 2010 NY-Sen-A GOP primary loser (in other words, the guy who couldn’t beat the guy who got vaporized by Chuck Schumer) Gary Bernsten sent out an email asking supporters to help teabagger David Bellavia petition his way on to the ballot as an independent. I’d be surprised if this effort is successful, though – Bellavia has only until March 19 to collection 3,500 signatures. Crazy Jack Davis is doing the same thing, but at least he has a shot, since he’s putting his millions to work for him.

• SD-AL: I linked this story in the Pete Hoekstra item above (see MI-Sen), but ex-Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin has also closed her campaign account, suggesting that Steve Israel’s efforts to woo her into a rematch with Republican Kristi Noem haven’t been successful. The Fix has a long list of other Dems (and a few Repubs) who have shut down their FEC committees – click the link for the rest.

• TX-LG: Texas Ag. Comm’r Todd Staples isn’t ruling out a run for Lt. Gov., a seat which could become open if the current occupant, David Dewhurst, wins Kay Bailey Hutchison’s Senate seat. Other possible aspirants include Comptroller Susan Combs and Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson. (And yes, since this is Texas and everyone I just mentioned holds statewide office, that means they’re all Republicans.) While you might be wondering why we’re going so far down into the weeds here, the LG job is considered one of the most powerful in Texas (some like to say even more powerful that the governor’s), because the LG is also President of the state Senate.

• Wisconsin Recall: The DLCC just launched a TV ad against GOP state Sen. Luther Olsen, attacking him for flip-flopping to support Scott Walker’s anti-union legislation – though it does not mention anything about the recall effort which Olsen is (among others) the subject of. The ad (which you can watch here) is running in Green Bay, and a spokesman tells me that the buy is “about 1000 points.”

Also, check out this piece from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Craig Gilbert, which begins:

Number of state lawmakers removed from office by recall in all of American history: 13.

Number of state lawmakers currently facing recall campaigns in Wisconsin: 16.

• Hawaii: In order to avoid another Charles Djou, the Hawaii House just passed a bill to institute instant runoff voting (aka IRV) for special Congressional elections. Of course, they could just hold primaries instead of jungle elections.

• WATN?: Scott Lee Cohen, the disastrous Lt. Gov. candidate whose utterly failed gubernatorial bid probably saved Pat Quinn’s ass, is hoping to replace ex-state Sen. Rickey Hendon, who resigned last month. Given that the replacement gets picked by a panel of Chicago Democratic Party committeemen, I’m guessing that Cohen’s chances are somewhere between zero and nil.

Redistricting Roundup:

• Idaho: At least one local expert is confirming what we observed last week: population shrinkage in the 2nd CD will likely require it to absorb the entire city of Boise, which is currently split between the state’s two districts.

• New Jersey: Richard Lee has some interesting historical details about the 1990 round of redistricting, focusing on two politicians who are still part of New Jersey’s congressional delegation today: Rep. Frank Pallone and Sen. Bob Menendez. Menendez’s federal career was launched when New Jersey’s loss of a seat led to the creation of an Hispanic-friendly district. Pallone, meanwhile, was targeted for elimination by his own party. Said one Republican: “I’d like to see Mr. Pallone defeated. But apparently I don’t want to see him defeated as much as the Democrats do.” Obviously, Pallone lived to fight another day.

Meanwhile, Rutgers Prof. (and state redistricting tiebreak vote) Alan Rosenthal supposedly put out a memo outlining his vision for a fair legislative map, reportedly leading state Dems to believe their vision is much more closely aligned with Rosenthal’s than is the Republicans’. But it doesn’t seem like this memo, if it exists, has been released online.

So I finally registered on SSP and this map is my first posting of North Carolina. It’s intended to result in 9 safe GOP districts, all of which are 57% McCain or above, and 4 safe majority-minority Dem districts, two of which are plurality VAP black.

Overview:

From East to West:

Finally, a close up of the Triangle and the Triad:

All districts are within 500 of ideal population as follows:

Obama/McCain       White/Black/Hispanic/Asian/Native/other

NC-1 (Blue)        G.K. Butterfield (D)

67.5-32.0        40.9/47.8/7.4/1.7/0.7/1.5

The 1st loses a bit of the coastal region but the only major change is a snaking addition into Raleigh to pick up heavily Democratic and minority voters so as to have enough population.

Safe Democratic

NC-2 (Green)        Renee Ellmers (R), Larry Kissell (D)/Mike McIntyre (D)

40.7-58.4        69.3/15.2/9.5/2.5/1.6/2.0

The 2nd undergoes significant changes as it loses area in Raleigh proper and the counties to the northeast and gains heavily Republican territory to the south and west from the current 7th and 8th districts.  Ellmers should be safe here barring a primary challenge from another Republican, but seeing as how she’s very conservative this shouldn’t be a huge problem for her. Incidentally, Kissell’s home in Biscoe and possibly McIntyre’s in Lumberton have both been placed into the 2nd.

Safe Republican

NC-3 (Purple)        Walter Jones (R)

40.8-58.3        76.5/14.6/5.5/1.1/0.4/1.8

The 3rd loses its appendage towards Wilson and Rocky Mount and gains one snaking down the rest of the coast to include Republican friendly territory from the current 7th. Jones’ district becomes slightly more Democratic but that shouldn’t be much of a problem for him.

Safe Republican

NC-4 (Red)        David Price (D)

77.4-21.8        41.6/37.9/11.9/5.9/0.4/2.2

The 4th loses all of the southern 3rd and northwestern section of Wake County and instead bisects it to pick up heavily Democratic and minority voters.  The most radical change to the 4th, and what makes this configuration so devastating, is that it extends an arm across Alamance and Guilford counties, picking up very heavily minority and Democratic territory from Greensboro and High Point and in the process screwing over Brad Miller. The 4th is one of the most Democratic districts in the South and would be one of the most Democratic MMD to elect a white Democrat.

Safe Democratic

NC-5 (Yellow)        Virginia Foxx (R)

41.2-57.6        80.7/9.0/7.0/1.6/0.2/1.5

The 5th loses territory around Winston Salem and the counties to the north and west while trading territory with the 11th around Marion, Lenoir, and Hickory.  The district also adds territory in northern Mecklenburg.  Virginia Foxx might have some difficulty here since the 5th has become a moderate amount more Democratic and undergoes a moderate to large change in territory, however this is due to her weakness as a candidate.  Even Foxx should be all right here, and a generic R will have little to no trouble.

Safe Republican

NC-6 (Teal)        Howard Coble (R)

41.0-57.9        75.6/12.8/7.8/1.9/0.4/1.5

The 6th keeps most of its base in Greensboro and suburban Guilford county while the only substantial changes include trading Moore for Chatham county and taking in some outer heavily Democratic precincts in Guilford so that the surrounding Republicans can be shored up. I accidentally drew Coble out of the 6th since he actually lives in Summerfield, but that shouldn’t really be a problem since he’s represented much of the district for decades and probably won’t serve that many more terms anyway. It will probably trend a little Democratic over the decade but should be safe for Coble or any other country club Republican.

Safe Republican

NC-7 (Gray)        Open/Mike McIntyre (D)

63.3-36.0        41.0/37.2/9.5/1.5/8.2/2.6

And here is where the fun begins. I could have just done an 8-3-2 map leaving Shuler and McIntyre in competitive districts, or another configuration of 9-4, but after playing around with DRA a little, I realized it was possible to draw a 4th (heavily gerrymandered) majority-minority district in southeastern NC. So here goes:

The 7th loses most of the whiter parts of its current configuration and adds minority heavy areas to the north in Goldsboro and to the west in territory from the current 8th. Fayetteville is now almost entirely within the 7th. All but one voting block within Mike McIntyre’s hometown of Lumberton is included in the 7th, but that is pretty much irrelevant because McIntyre wouldn’t last two seconds in a primary here seeing as how the district is significantly more Democratic than the current 7th.

Overall, the only reason the GOP would consider allowing for this configuration is that it unambiguously removes Kissell and protects Ellmers and Myrick, but at the cost of securing a seat for a significantly more liberal Democrat than McIntyre.

Safe Democratic

NC-8 (Steel Blue)        Open

40.7-58.4        68.3/18.2/9.5/1.6/0.4/1.9

The 8th here bears no resemblance to the current district and reflects just how screwed Larry Kissell would be since the surrounding districts have gobbled up the entirety of his district.  The new 8th stretches from Wake to Onslow county and is composed mostly of territory from the current 2nd and 3rd. Before 2010 there would have been the chance for a Mike McIntyre clone the right type of Democrat to win here, but Dems got absolutely slaughtered here in 2010 and have a bit of a weak bench.

Safe Republican

NC-9 (Cyan)        Sue Myrick (R)

40.4-58.7        75.8/11.3/8.6/2.4/0.3/1.6

Due to population gains the 9th had to shed a lot of territory and does so by losing all of its area in Gaston and northern Mecklenburg counties.  Since the 9th showed quite a large shift in voting patterns between 04 and 08 I added more conservative territory from the dead carcass of Larry Kissell’s 8th district with the 9th now containing blood red territory to the east of Charlotte.  This district should be safe for Myrick, but it would be interesting to see how it trends over the whole decade due to large gains in population.

Safe Republican

NC-10 (Magenta)        Patrick McHenry (R)

41.9-57.1        78.1/11.4/6.2/2.3/0.3/1.6

The 11th changes significantly in order to allow Republicans to remove Shuler in the neighboring 11th. The district picks up the remnants of the old 9th in Gaston County and reaches an arm into Ashville to annex the majority of its Democratic base.  To compensate for this lunge towards the left, the 10th district trades Democratic leaning Hickory, Lenoir, and Morganton to the 5th in exchange for more dyed-in-the-wool Republicans.  The district becomes significantly more Democratic from extremely safe Republican to just pretty safe Republican, but McHenry now represents a lot of new territory and could be vulnerable to a primary challenge.

Safe Republican

NC-11 (Chartreuse)        Heath Shuler (D)

41.7-57.0        87.6/3.9/5.0/0.7/1.4/1.6

Ah, the other beauty of this map. Since the 9th is able to shift east unhindered by Larry Kissell’s 8th, the 10th is able to also shift east, which provides ultra conservative territory for the 11th to pick up. Ashville and Marion are almost entirely removed from the 11th which deprives Shuler of Democratic base voters, however it is plausible that his appeal to conservative-leaning Dems and Indies could provide a path to victory. Generic R would be heavily favored against Shuler and all but guaranteed against a Generic D.

Likely Republican vs. Shuler

Safe Republican vs. Generic D

NC-12 (Medium Blue)        Mel Watt (D)

73.2-26.1        35.3/43.1/15.3/3.9/0.3/2.1

The 12th loses all of Greensboro, High Point, and Thomasville, but picks up large parts of eastern Charlotte from the old 8th.  There’s nothing else but some minor changes, such as not hugging the county line between Charlotte and Winston-Salem to free up extra Republican voters. There’s no point in crying about not splitting towns and counties when it doesn’t constitute a back door veto on a Democratic gerrymander. Republicans have stated that they won’t draw anything like the current 8th, but it still remains an effective vote sink when drawn from Charlotte to Winston-Salem.

Safe Democratic

NC-13 (Salmon)        Open/Brad Miller (D)

42.0-57.0        77.8/13.0/5.9/1.6/0.3/1.4

Karma has it out for Brad Miller with this map, although pretty much any GOP effort guarantees he’s finished, which is quite a shame.  The 13th loses all of its heavily democratic territory in Greensboro, Burlington, and Cary, and most of it in Raleigh in exchange for the most GOP-friendly parts of northern Wake County. Additionally, the 13th moves westward to pick up large amounts of territory from the 5th by extending across to Yadkin County. Since I didn’t know exactly where Brad Miller lives in central Raleigh, it’s possible he lives in either the 1st or the 13th, but that’s utterly irrelevant since the 13th no longer contains his urban bases in Wake and Guilford counties.

Safe Republican

Intended result:

Summary:

Republicans shore up all of their incumbents, most importantly Ellmers and Myrick, while dividing up fast growing Wake and Mecklenburg counties among various buffered districts. Brad Miller, Larry Kissell, and Mike McIntyre are dead men walking. Miller gets replaced by a conservative Republican, Kissell has no district and a conservative Republican wins the new 8th to the east. McIntyre is defeated in the primary by a much more liberal, minority Democrat if he runs in the new 7th. Heath Shuler likely loses to a Republican without the Democratic base in Ashville. Furthermore, by removing Shuler, Kissell, and McIntyre in 2012 the GOP prevents a statewide challenge from a moderate-to-conservative Democratic sitting congressman in 2016.

This configuration is made entirely possible by its four majority minority Dem vote sinks which lock in the 9-4 split, assuming that Shuler loses, for most, if not all of the decade. Additionally, the 4th is a 77%!!!1!1! Obama district yet only 54.2% VAP minority, and is an ambitious radical, socialist, atheist Marxist’s Democrat’s wet dream.

Now… obviously this map would draw myriad lawsuits after all of two seconds, and state Republicans have claimed they won’t attempt anything like the current 12th, but they were also clamoring for independent redistricting until they found themselves in the majority. It’s not sleek and pretty, and it could only care a little less about city and county lines, but if this map has any chance of surviving in court then having 9 safe seats is much smarter for the Republicans than having 8 or 10 shaky seats with the added bonus that anyone who won the 4 Dem districts would likely be too liberal to win statewide.

And as an added bonus, North Carolina with 5 majority minority districts:



All are majority minority voting age population, and the first remains majority black, but barely so.

What do you all think?