Swing State Project

Via email:

More than four months have passed since the election and I am still humbled and inspired by what we accomplished.  It was truly an incredible journey.

And now, the journey continues. After a period of honest reflection and consultation with my family and members of the community, I have decided to run again for Congress in 2012. I am running because the issues we care about are no less important today than they were last November, and the dysfunction in Congress is only getting worse.  I’ve dealt with these issues in a recent Huffington Post Op-Ed addressed to Congress.

Though he lost, Ami Bera was one of the rare bright spots for Democrats in 2010. A physician with no prior political experience, he ran a deft campaign and hauled in a ton of money, putting the fright into the Republican Party and Rep. Dan Lungren. In the end, Bera outraised Lungren by an impressive $3 million to $2 million margin, but thanks to the brutal overall climate, Lungren hung on with just 50.1% of the vote.

Of course, with California’s new redistricting commission, district lines are liable to change quite radically. But hopefully Bera will have someplace he can reasonably run – and with any luck, he’ll put an end to Dan Lungren’s career, too.

Maps and Graphs looking at yesterday’s Mayoral Recall on a precinct level. Cross-posted at Stochastic Democracy.

In a lop-sided result that shocked most advisors, 88% of Miami voters voted to recall Mayor Carlos Alvarez (R- Miami). Some Democrats suggested parallels with the likely upcoming recall elections of Republican State Senators in Wisconsin over controversial anti-Union legislation. Republicans were quick to point out that Alverez’s recall campaign centered around the mayor’s property tax increases and perceived concessions to county employee unions.

Alvarez recall vote by precinct. Alvarez did not win a single precinct with more then two voters.

Vote for Republican Senate Candidate Marco Rubio in 2010 vs Yes vote by precinct. Statistically significant but not particularly strong relationship.

The question is what extent this recall was driven by Democrats or Republican disapproval. Nothing passes with 88% of the vote without bipartisan approval, but a deeper look at the data reveals a disproportionately Republican electorate.

Turnout for the 2011 Mayoral Recall Election by precinct

2010 Senate results by precinct, falling mostly on ethnic lines. Note spatial similarity to the previous map.

A graph confirming the seeming relation between the last two maps. Precincts where Rubio performed strongly had much better turnout relative to 2010 then Democratic districts.



Election results under different year’s precinct turnout levels.  

These factors combined to produce an incredibly Republican electorate relative to 2010, a year that had by far the best Conservative turnout in a decade. Roughly 50% of votes in the special election came from precincts where Rubio received more than 55% of the vote, these same districts made up 37% of the votes in 2010. If precincts had turned out in 2008 at 2011 levels, Obama would have nearly lost the county, traditionally a Democratic stronghold.

This isn’t bad news for Wisconsin Democrats, they seem to be doing fine. But if they prevail, it’s safe to say that their electorate won’t look anything like this one.  

Today and yesterday’s Census data dump is of three states that didn’t gain or lose seats but will need some internal adjustment to reflect population movement from the cities and the rural areas to the suburbs: Minnesota, New Mexico, and Tennessee. (It also included three states with at-large seats that we won’t need to discuss: Alaska, Montana, and North Dakota.)

Minnesota barely made the cut for retaining its eighth seat (13,000 fewer people statewide and it would have lost it), which you can see in its very low new target: 662,991 per district. (That’s up from about 615K in 2000.) Despite the fact that Michele Bachmann lives there, people keep pouring into MN-06 in the outer-ring suburbs and exurbs to the north, west, and east of the Twin Cities. Only it and MN-02, taking in the southern suburbs/exurbs, will need to shed population, giving part to the rural 1st and 7th, and part to the urban 4th and 5th (and suburban-but-boxed-in 3rd). With split redistricting control, look for the parties, if they’re able to agree, to settle on incumbent protection.

Talk of moving the college town of St. Cloud, currently in MN-06, into MN-08 (which would enable Tarryl Clark to run there) may be premature, as MN-08 gained enough population that it can remain about the same. In fact, the fact that it did so may say a lot about last year’s election; the 8th’s growth has been happening at its southern end, where the MSP exurbs begin and where new Rep. Chip Cravaack hails from, and the population growth in this area has outpaced losses in the dark-blue Iron Range to the north, Jim Oberstar’s traditional turf.

New Mexico’s target is 686,393, based on staying at three seats (up from 606K in 2000). Not much change needs to happen between the districts; the largely rural NM-02 will need to gain some population, probably from the southern suburbs of Albuquerque in NM-01. New Mexico has become appreciably more Hispanic over the last decade, though maybe not as dramatically as the other three border states (California, Arizona, and Texas), moving as a state from 45% non-Hispanic white and 42% Hispanic in 2000 to 40% non-Hispanic white and 46% Hispanic in 2010. That means that, since 2000, it has become the first state with a Hispanic plurality. The movement was fairly consistent among districts, with the 1st going from 42% to 48% Hispanic, the 2nd going from 47% to 52% Hispanic, and the 3rd going from 36% to 39% Hispanic (the 3rd, though, is the least-white of the three districts, thanks to an 18% Native American population, which stayed consistent over the decade).

Tennessee stays comfortably at nine seats, and its new target is 705,122 (up from 632K in 2000). It, like Minnesota, has seen a big population shift from cities and rural areas to suburbs and exurbs, as seen in the huge growth in the 6th (which half-circles Nashville on the east) and the 7th (a thin gerrymander that hooks up Nashville’s southern suburbs with Memphis’s eastern suburbs). In particular, western Tennessee, both in the city (TN-09) and the rural areas (TN-08) were hard-hit, with the 8th barely gaining and the 9th outright losing population. The GOP controls the redistricting process for the first time here, but with them up 7-2 in the current House delegation (and with Memphis unfixably blue), look for them to lock in current gains rather than getting aggressive with TN-05 (seeing as how Nashville could be cracked into multiple light-red urban/suburban districts, although that has ‘dummymander’ written all over it).  

Now that it’s 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in the coming weeks and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and it’s time to look at Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, and New Hampshire.

Previous diary on Alabama, Arizona, and Arkansas

Previous diary on California, Colorado, and Connecticut

Previous diary on Florida, Georgia, and Hawaii

Previous diary on Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa

Previous diary on Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, and Maryland

Previous diary on Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota

The rest below the fold…

Mississippi

Districts: 4

Who’s in charge? Split (GOP Governor and Senate, Dem House)

Is that important? Nope

The legislature is engaged in moderately high-stakes drama over legislative redistricting, which must be done before the state’s qualifying deadline later this spring. Congressional remapping will, by contrast, be quite simple, with a plan that expands Bennie Thompson’s 2nd to pick up as many majority-black areas as possible and protects newbie GOP incumbents Alan Nunnelee in the north and Steven Palazzo in the south.

Missouri

Districts: 8 (down from 9 in 2002)

Who’s in charge? Split (Dem Governor, GOP Legislature)

Is that important? Yes

I have long expected the legislature — which has almost enough Republicans to override a veto by Gov. Jay Nixon — to dismantle Russ Carnahan’s suburban St. Louis 3rd District and split it up between Lacy Clay’s 1st, Todd Akin’s 2nd, and Jo Ann Emerson’s 8th, since Clay’s district must expand and the two Republicans are safe enough to accommodate a few new Democratic voters. However, renewed chatter about Akin running for the Senate against Claire McCaskill is muddying things a bit. With a 6-2 map feasible — all major areas of Democratic strength concentrated into the 1st and the Kansas City-based 5th — it’s hard to believe Republicans won’t go for it, but it may be too early to declare Carnahan odd man out after all. If Akin does seek a promotion to the Capitol’s north side, the legislature will still probably draw a less hospitable seat for Carnahan, to make that 6-2 split plausible.

Nebraska

Districts: 3

Who’s in charge? Republicans (de facto; legislature is officially nonpartisan)

Is that important? I suppose

Jeff Fortenberry’s Lincoln-area 1st and Lee Terry’s Omaha-based 2nd will contract in area to accommodate the slow-growing rural 3rd, but that is the height of drama here. The only notable thing about Nebraska’s congressional districts in 2012 is that electoral votes will probably no longer be apportioned by CD, denying Obama that Omaha electoral vote he won in 2008.

Nevada

Districts: 4 (up from 3 in 2002)

Who’s in charge? Split (GOP Governor, Dem Legislature)

Is that important? Very

Here we have a very ambitious legislature that would love to carve up Nevada as never before, with one rural/suburban Republican vote-sink for Joe Heck and three Dem-leaning seats (two in Las Vegas and environs, one stretching from Reno down to northern Clark County). The congressional delegation is deeply in flux, with Dean Heller running for the Senate, Shelley Berkley contemplating a Senate bid, and a new seat being added that will almost certainly lean Democratic. I have to assume Gov. Brian Sandoval will veto any plan that does not preserve two Republican seats, one in the north where Heller used to be and one for Heck, but with state Treasurer Kate Marshall considering a run for the 2nd, even that former stipulation is up in the air. The upside here will be for the Democrats, regardless.

New Hampshire

Districts: 2

Who’s in charge? Split (Dem Governor, GOP Legislature)

Is that important? Not a bit

New Hampshire’s congressional districts really haven’t changed much in living memory, simply trading towns based on Census figures every ten years. The GOP legislature may try to draw very friendly lines for itself, but as we saw in the last decade, New Hampshire politics functions as a series of tidal wave pendulum swings, if I may mix metaphors. Independents are unpredictable and fickle, and tend to break hard against one party or the other.

(Cross-posted from Daily Kos.)

We asked our pollster, Public Policy Polling, to test the waters in all eight Republican-held state Senate districts in Wisconsin which are currently the target of recall efforts. PPP went into the field over the weekend, and the numbers we got back are very interesting. I’ve summarized the key results in the table below.

We asked a battery of questions in each poll (links to full results are at the end of this post). One basic question asked whether respondents approve of the job performance of each senator-those numbers are in the first two columns after each incumbent’s name. Four senators have negative ratings, and one is even-not particularly welcome news for Republicans.

We also asked whether respondents support or oppose the idea of recalling their senators. As you can see in the next pair of columns, this question doesn’t test as well-pluralities say they favor recall in just three districts-but in a way, it’s the least important question we asked. As long as canvassers collect enough valid signatures, a recall election will happen automatically under Wisconsin law. So while this is helpful information to have, it is far from dispositive, especially when contrasted with the next pair of columns.

“Vote Incumbent” and “Vote Democrat” summarize data from our most critical question. We asked poll-takers whether, in a hypothetical election that would be held later this year, they’d support the incumbent (whom we mentioned by name), or his/her “Democratic opponent.” (This sort of question is often described as testing a “generic Democrat.”) Here, the results give us reason to be cautiously optimistic.

Three Republican incumbents actually trail “generic Dem”: Luther Olsen, Randy Hopper, and Dan Kapanke. Two more have very narrow leads and garner less than 50% support: Rob Cowles and Sheila Harsdorf. And one more, Alberta Darling, holds a clear lead but is still potentially vulnerable. (Two recall-eligible senators, Mary Lazich and Glenn Grothman, sit in extremely red districts and look to have safe leads.) These numbers suggest we have a chance to make five and possibly six recall races highly competitive.

But a key thing to remember, though, is that if any of these senators have to face a recall election, we’ll need an actual candidate to run against each of them. In that regard, Wisconsin’s recalls are very different from California’s, where in 2003 voters were simply asked if they wanted to remove Democratic Gov. Gray Davis from office. Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected (with less than a majority) by means of a separate ballot question. In my view, California’s system makes it easier to boot an office-holder, because at bottom, the first question simply asks if you’d prefer some other-any other-alternative. If your answer was “yes,” you then had your choice on the second question, whether it was Arnold (R) or Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante (D) or Gary Coleman (?). In Wisconsin, if a recall election makes it on to the ballot, there is no California-style first question-we go directly to a head-to-head between candidates (with a possible stop along the way for primaries). So for a recall to succeed, we’ll need to convince voters to support a real live Democrat-and that means we’ll have to recruit some good candidates.

As the recall process moves forward, you’ll want to bookmark this link and keep it handy. It’s a chart of the 2004 & 2008 presidential results in each state Senate district in Wisconsin. While not a perfect measurement, the presidential numbers offer a clear baseline for a rough-cut assessment of how competitive each district is likely to be. Of course, many other factors are involved, but if you click the link, you’ll understand immediately why Kapanke is in such trouble – he’s in the bluest district held by a Republican, one that went 61% for Obama and 53% for Kerry. A little further down the list, you’ll see that Olsen, Cowles, Hopper, Harsdorf, and Darling all occupy districts with roughly similar presidential results that hover in swingy territory, so you can see why at least the first four are at risk. Darling’s stronger performance is somewhat surprising, given that senators in comparable districts all do worse, but even she is not out of the woods. Bringing up the rear are Lazich and Grothman, who holds the most Republican seat in the entire state. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which either of them could fall.

One final detail: You’ll notice that in the table up above, the last column reads “Number of Responses.” That refers to how many people actually completed our poll when we called them. If you’re familiar with electoral polling at all, those numbers are simply eye-popping, particularly for state senate districts. Our target was 600 to 800 respondents per poll, and yet we got well into the two thousand range for all but one of them (and even that outlier had over 1,300). What does this mean? The only reasonable conclusion is that an unusually high proportion of Wisconsinites are tuned into this conflict, and when given the opportunity to make their opinions heard, they jumped at the chance. While we can’t yet say for sure whether the enthusiasm gap has been erased, we do know that folks in Wisconsin are very definitely paying attention.

And so, of course, are we. As the situation warrants, we’ll revisit these districts and test the poll numbers again. For now, though, we wait on the outcome of the petition drive to force these recall elections in the first place. Then the battle will really begin.

Full Results: Cowles | Darling | Harsdorf | Olsen | Hopper | Grothman | Lazich | Kapanke

Ralston via Taegan:

Jon Ralston confirms that Sharron Angle (R) will run for the seat of Rep. Dean Heller (R-NV), who is running for U.S. Senate.

He notes the GOP primary “will be something else.”

It’s time to play the music! It’s time to light the lights! It’s time to meet the wingers on the crazy show tonight! Yeah, my friends, I’m in a good mood today. It’s like I can smell the cat fud that hasn’t even been opened yet. It’s not that I expect Angle to win – see Ralston via DavidNYC:

As for that 2nd CD race, Jon Ralston said he’s seen three different internal polls in recent days, all of which show Sharron Angle doing poorly in a one-on-one fight against Krolicki (and also against Heller for Senate). Ralston says he can’t divulge the numbers, but he now thinks that Angle – whom he had previously considered “the favorite” for NV-02 – would need a multi-way primary to have a chance at the nomination.

But this sure as hell ought to be entertaining!

UPDATE: Here’s Angle’s announcement video:

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/10-13, Ohio voters, Dec. 2010 in parens):

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49 (43)

Jon Husted (R): 34 (38)

Undecided: 18 (18)

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49 (43)

Jim Jordan (R): 30 (35)

Undecided: 21 (22)

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49 (40)

Mary Taylor (R): 30 (38)

Undecided: 21 (22)

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 48

Josh Mandel (R): 32

Undecided: 21

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 48

Steve LaTourette (R): 30

Undecided: 22

Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49

Drew Carey (R): 34

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Some days, I get out of bed and have to think about which Republican it is I hate the most. Usually, though, I don’t, because it just winds up being John Kasich. But today, if Public Policy Polling is right about these numbers, then John Kasich is my new BFF – and Sherrod Brown’s, too. I always like seeing a d-bag like Kasich suffer, but when that also helps a great progressive like Brown, well hell, it’s a great day for America! Tom notes three key points:

1) There are more undecided Republicans than Democrats, so these mostly no-name GOP candidates have more room to grow – but at 48 or 49 points, Brown is already very close to victory.

2) In December, Brown was tied among independents with his potential opponents. Now he has sizable leads – for instance, 18 points against Lt. Gov. (and former Auditor) Mary Taylor.

3) Similarly, Democrats are coming home. Brown was just 75-15 among members of his own party versus Taylor; now he’s 86-3. Brown may not have much crossover appeal, but at this point, neither do the Republicans.

I’ll add another observation: PPP asked respondents whom they voted for in 2008. The answer: 49% Obama, 46% McCain. That’s very close to Obama’s actual 4-point margin. While I’d bet that not all of these Obama voters will pull the lever for him a second time, this does demonstrate that the 2012 electorate is looking a hell of a lot more like 2008 than 2010. If that holds, then we might not do too badly.

• AZ-Sen: Is Mike Lee hoping to turn into Jim DeMint 2.0? The Utah Republican and teabagger extraordinaire announced his second out-of-state endorsement, this time of Rep. Jeff Flake, running to succeed Jon Kyl. (Last week he endorsed Ted Cruz in TX-Sen.) Flake’s an interesting choice for Lee: his extreme anti-earmark rhetoric is probably appealing to teabaggers, but many of his other views are anathema to them. (In fact, he didn’t even show his face at a local teabagger convention a few weeks ago.) As for Lee, unless he starts backing up his words with real money (like DeMint does), then I’m going to stop caring about him very soon.

• CT-Sen: Rep. Chris Murphy just rolled out the Honeycomb™ of endorsements – as in, it’s not small, no no no. All four of his fellow members of Congress – Rosa DeLauro, John Larson, Joe Courtney, and Jim Himes – gave Murphy their backing yesterday. His opponent in the Democratic primary, Susan Bysiewicz, offered a weirdly churlish response, saying “There is no doubt that Congressman Chris Murphy has a lot of support in the inner hallways of Washington.” Uh, does she really want to be dissing well-regarded figures like caucus chair Larson et al.?

• FL-Sen: Jebus, this is really getting down into the weeds here: ex-Sen. George LeMieux is considering (considering!) hiring a pollster! WOW! Slow news day doesn’t begin to describe it.

• HI-Sen: Is there anyone other than Haley Barbour who doesn’t think that working as a lobbyist is now a huge 20-lb. goiter around the neck of anyone who wants to seek elective office? Well, Charles Djou seems to be hoping Barbour is right. A Bloomberg News report that he and ex-Rep. Walt Minnick of Idaho have started a lobbying firm is only “sort of” true, says Djou. He goes on to add that he’s not moving back to DC and that “I am only serving as an advisor with Congressman Minnick and really haven’t done much of anything other than give him occasional advice.” Uh huh. Well, look, I’d rather live in Hawaii, too, but this namby-pamby b.s. is not really going to cut it if Djou is actually staying home because he wants to run for the Senate this cycle.

On the other side of the aisle, here’s a new name in the mix: State Senate Vice President Donna Mercado Kim (D) says she’s forming an exploratory committee so that she can poll the race, explaining she’ll decide at that point whether she wants to get in. While no Democrat has taken the plunge yet, Kim would almost certainly face a field of serious heavyweights.

• MA-Sen: Guy Cecil alert! Okay, yeah, this is nothing like a Biden alert! – Cecil is the executive director of the DSCC, and he’s coming up to Boston to meet with party leaders and other Democratic bigwigs to discuss the race against Sen. Scott Brown. No word of any specific recruiting meetings, but I’d be surprised if some weren’t in the offing.

• MI-Sen (PDF): Unfortunately this EPIC•MRA poll got wedged beneath the couch cushions a couple of weeks ago, but I found it (along with Sid Leiken’s mom’s cell phone) when I went hunting for the remote. Anyhow, they showed Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) inching out ex-Rep. (and 2010 GOP gubernatorial primary loser) Pete Hoekstra by a 44-42 margin. (Hoekstra has yet to announce a run.) When this poll first came out, a lot of folks pointed out that the sample composition seems whack. I’ll also observe that the pronunciation guides in the poll script for both names are wrong. They told their interviewers to pronounce them STAB-now and HOKE-struh. (Click links for proper pronunciation.)

• MO-Sen: No one must be more pleased at Republican Rep. Todd Akin’s evolving change of heart about a Senate run than Democrat Russ Carnahan. In The Fix’s words, Akin is now “actively considering” the race – which is, by my counting, his fourth different stance on whether he’s interested. As for Carnahan, if Akin’s House seat opens up, that may mean the Dem’s 3rd CD seat gets spared in redistricting.

• MT-Sen: I’ve been disappointed at how meekly the teabaggers seem to have reacted to Rep. Denny Rehberg’s coronation as the de facto Republican nominee in Montana, so even though this is purely a rumor, I’m at least pleased to see it. Blogger Don Pogreba says he’s heard that Rob Natelson, a hardcore conservative law professor who twice sought the GOP nomination for governor, is polling the race. The big red flag, though, is that Natelson moved to Colorado last year, as Pogreba acknowledges. Tea Party Express, Club for Growth – where are you?

• NV-Sen, NV-02: Well, that was quick. Everyone who thought Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki wouldn’t challenge Rep. Dean Heller in the GOP primary, you were right. Not only that, Krolicki offered his endorsement to Heller yesterday, just hours after Heller made his entry into the race official. Krolicki did say he’s considering a run for Heller’s NV-02 seat, though.

As for that 2nd CD race, Jon Ralston said he’s seen three different internal polls in recent days, all of which show Sharron Angle doing poorly in a one-on-one fight against Krolicki (and also against Heller for Senate). Ralston says he can’t divulge the numbers, but he now thinks that Angle – whom he had previously considered “the favorite” for NV-02 – would need a multi-way primary to have a chance at the nomination.

And finally, here’s some welcome – and rare – news about the Dem field: Dave Wasserman says that state Treasurer Kate Marshall, who had previously been talked about as a possible Senate candidate, is considering the race in the 2nd district. Wasserman also reports that state Dems are thinking about a plan to pack Republicans into 3rd CD Rep. Joe Heck’s district so as to make a more amenable 2nd CD for the likes of Marshall.

• PA-Sen: Another Republican Some Dude has entered the race against Sen. Bob Casey. As Philadelphia Weekly puts it: “Her name’s Laureen Cummings, she’s the head of the Scranton Tea Party and, like members of the Tea Party, she considers herself a ‘patriot.’ She also believes Congress needs more patriots and patriots her patriot every patriot morning.” And as our own Brian Valco puts it: “Because she’s the head of the Scranton Tea Party, expect a Wall Street Journal write-up and FNC primetime interview soon enough.”

• VA-Sen: This is looking really pathetic. After the DNC swore that Tim Kaine did not tell a class at the University of Richmond that he was running for Senate, the school’s newspaper is saying that it has “confirmed that he told the class that he had made his decision.” Whoever is telling the truth, this is just some small-time shit which really doesn’t seem like the kind of thing someone experienced in running professional campaigns would be engaged in. I mean, how many different times has Kaine uttered something that could be interpreted or mis-interpreted or re-interpreted or mal-interpreted? This is just not the sort of shtick I’d expect from someone supposedly steeped in the “No Drama Obama” ethos. Enough of the games.

• NC-Gov: Former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R), who has widely been expected to seek a rematch against Gov. Bev Perdue since forever, is kinda-sorta starting to staff up. Several political hands are “advising” him now (though only one is on payroll), including his 2008 campaign manager (who is working on a volunteer basis).

• ND-Gov: This is a nice – and to me, unexpected – piece of news: Former Rep. Earl Pomeroy, who lost a tough race last year, is apparently considering a run for governor this year, at least according to the chair of the North Dakota Democratic Party, Mark Schneider. Pomeroy recently took a job at the DC firm of Alston & Bird (erm, what was I saying about lobbyists earlier?), though Schneider says Pomeroy told him he’d rather live in his home state than Washington.

• UT-Gov: Utah has another gubernatorial election next year, despite having just held one last year. That’s because the 2010 election was a special, to fill the remaining years in ex-Gov. John Huntsman’s term. (Huntsman of course resigned to become Obama’s ambassador to China, and is now on the entertaining quest of winning the GOP’s presidential nomination.) Anyhow, Gary Herbert, who inherited the job when Huntsman stepped down and then won last November, faces voters again in 2012 – but predictably, he’s found a way to piss off the teabaggers. He’s planning to sign an immigration bill which creates a guest worker program, but the teanuts are calling it an “amnesty.” They want to boot Herbert, but we’ll see if their bark has any bite. (My guess: no.)

• CA-36: Rep. John Garamendi and former Rep. Diane Watson both endorsed fellow Dem Janice Hahn in the special election today. Watson used to represent a Los Angeles district (the 33rd) until her retirement last year. Garamendi hails from the Bay Area up north, but perhaps has a larger profile on account of being a former Lt. Gov. Meanwhile, Debra Bowen put out a press release touting the endorsement of former L.A. city controller and state inspector general Laura Chick. Chick, who has a reputation as reformer, originally endorsed Bowen via Twitter last month.

• FL-22: Some Dude “no not that” Patrick Murphy filed to run against lunatic Allen West as a Democrat. The only other time I mentioned this guy, the media account I linked described him as some kind of construction executive, so I thought, maybe rich dude? But The Hill says he’s a 28-year-old accountant, so I’m guessing probably not. (That prior piece also said Steve Israel was meeting with him on a recruiting trip, which is sorta surprising.)

• FL-25: Politico has another entry in the “David Rivera is doomed” file, but they bury the lede on the only really new information, which is a list of candidates that unnamed “Republicans have begun mentioning” as possible replacements. One of them has come up before on SSP: state Sen. Miguel Diaz de la Portilla. The others are political consultant Carlos Curbelo, state Rep. J.C. Planas, and state Sen. Anitere Flores. Planas and Flores (the only woman in this group) both refused to rule out the possibility of a run.

• NY-26: This amuses me: Crazy Jack Davis is, as you know, petitioning his way on to the ballot as an independent. But if you do that in New York, you actually get to create your own (very temporary) party, complete with funny name. (Does anyone NOT think that Rent Is Too Damn High?) Davis’s choice? The Tea Party. Actual teabaggers are pissed that he’s ganking their good (lol) name. And actual teabagger David Bellavia, who is also petitioning, has been reduced to picking the “Federalist Party.” What’s next, the Whigs? Oh wait, we already had that.

• Wisconsin Recall: The complete results of Daily Kos’s polls of all eight recall target districts are out, and the numbers are at least somewhat promising – but go judge for yourself. Also of note, the tradmed is apparently confirming a story that started circulating on some blogs a few days ago – namely, that vulnerable Sen. Randy Hopper left his wife to move in with a 25-year-old mistress (a Republican consultant, of course) in Madison. In addition to the salacious angle, this is also potentially a problem because that means he may now be living outside his district, which would be against state law (depending on certain other circumstances). In any event, it don’t look good – and the kicker is that, according to Reid Wilson, Hopper’s estranged wife signed his recall petition!

• IL-St. Sen.: So sorry – no Scott Lee Cohen!

• Miami-Dade County: Just brutal: Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Alvarez and Commissioner Natacha Seijas were recalled from office last night with something like 88% voting to boot them. A Miami friend of mine summed it up thusly: Alvarez “raised taxes, then raised his staff’s salary, then got himself a luxury car at government expense when they already provide him two SUVs.” Smart thinking!

• Special Elections: Heeere’s Johnny (Longtorso):

Judy Schwank held Pennsylvania’s SD-11 pretty easily yesterday for the Democrats, ending up with a 58-42 margin over Republican Larry Medaglia.

• Elections: A number of states are trying to save money and do what’s only sensible: consolidate their presidential primaries with their congressional & state primaries. Proposals include making the former later (AL, CA), or making the former later and the latter earlier (MO). Other states are considering switching to caucuses (boo!): KS, MA & WA.

• Virginia Redistricting: You may remember the redistricting contest between teams at various Virginia colleges from a few months ago; all of their finished projects are now on display, in case you need some inspiration for your own Dave’s App tinkerings. One other rumor that might scramble all those careful map-makings, though: Dave Wasserman is saying that the DOJ might force Virginia to junk its likely compromise map and proceed with two separate VRA seats, one based in Hampton Roads and the other in Richmond. That would probably cost the GOP an additional seat, most likely VA-04’s Randy Forbes, who already has one of the most African-American-heavy seats held by a GOPer.

We received three entries (so far) in our mini redistricting challenge for VA: from sawolf, okiedem, and drobertson. But now Dave Wasserman’s gone and added a new wrinkle: He says that the DOJ might force Virginia to junk its likely compromise map and proceed with two separate VRA seats. What kind of map can you come up with that creates two majority-minority districts in the Old Dominion?

UPDATE: SaoMagnifico has a map in the first thread taking another crack at the “compromise” plan.

(Also at Nevada Progressive)

Here we are again. What, you thought one map was enough? Now that the US Senate race is heating up and speculation is picking up on who will be doing what, I wanted to explore alternative scenarios to one I posted earlier this month. So here’s another option… But I have to warn you, it isn’t pretty.

So what if Shelley Berkley doesn’t run? Last time, we just assumed she was, and certain legislators hope she will so that they can redesign the 1st Congressional District (and form the brand new 4th) to their liking. But hold on, what if Shelley doesn’t run? Certain folks in DC have already been whispering they prefer someone else run for Senate. And now that Dean Heller is officially in the race, they’re making their views more public that they want someone, like Ross Miller or Catherine Cortez Masto, who has already proven ability to win statewide.

So what if Shelley doesn’t run? This is the scenario I explore in the map below.

NV-02 (The Dark Green District)

Population: 674,966

69.3% White (73.8% voting age)

The State of Play

The geographic map hasn’t changed since last time, but the political one certainly has!

Who’s All In?

Again, it’s now official that Dean Heller is running for US Senate. And now that he’s endorsed Heller for Senate, current Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki (R) just may be angling to replace Heller in this seat. And on paper, he seems like the ideal candidate: libertarian-conservative, but not too extreme, and very focused on Nevada issues. However, there are three drawbacks for him:

The Wild Cards

– One, Sharron Angle hasn’t yet figured out where she will run. (And yes, it’s pretty much settled that she WILL run for federal office again!) If she runs for Senate again, it will mean extra heartburn for Heller. But if she runs for this seat again, it will mean extra trouble for Krolicki.

– Two, the outspoken and controversial former USS Cole commander Kirk Lippold has already hinted he’ll also run in NV-02, and Nevada “tea party” icon Chuck Muth may already be anointing him as “THE Tea Party’s Favored Son”. So if Sharron Angle runs for Senate instead and Nevada GOP Chair Mark Amodei remains adamant about staying in the race (and potentially siphoning away critical GOP establishment support for Krolicki), this could be a recipe for yet another embarrassing setback for Krolicki and the Nevada GOP.

– And three, the unexpected may finally happen: A prominent A-List Democrat, State Treasurer Kate Marshall (D), is now considering running. If this comes to fruition and the GOP nominee is either weakened by a brutal primary and/or someone that the GOP establishment won’t be happy to support, then NV-02 just might do the unthinkable for the first time ever (elect a Democrat).

2010 US Senate Results

49.6% Angle (R)

43.8% Reid (D)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results

49% Obama (D)

48% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: R+4

Early Race Rating: Leans Republican for now, Tossup if Sharron Angle or Kirk Lippold is the GOP nominee

NV-03 (The Purple District)

Population: 675,257

66.4% White (69.7% voting age)

The State of Play

This district is just slightly more Democratic than its last incarnation, and that’s due to the return of the ritzy Summerlin North and Peccole Ranch (home of Shelley Berkley) Las Vegas neighborhoods to NV-01. The rest of the district remains intact, and the partisan makeup wasn’t too altered thanks to the remaining rural territories and the addition of some semi-rural (Las Vegas) West Side precincts along Sahara and west of Rainbow. And other than forming an even more disturbingly gerrymandered Reno-to-Vegas district, there isn’t anything more that can be done to save Joe Heck. And considering Heck’s recent vote to preserve the FHA program assisting  homeowners with underwater loans (which is badly needed in the district with the highest foreclosure rate in the country), he now realizes he will need to tack to the middle at times and at least pay some lip service to issues Southern Nevada cares about most (like housing and jobs) to win this still closely divided district.

Who’s All In?

See above. Heck looks to be preparing for reelection already. And since there’s a penchant for close elections and for ticket splitting here, he certainly shouldn’t be counted out in a district that President Obama will probably only narrowly win next year.

The Wild Cards

Should Heck prove to be “too independent” for teabaggers’ liking, or if/when he runs for another office later in the decade, State Senators Elizabeth Halseth (R-Northwest) and Barbara Cegavske (R-Summerlin) will likely remain waiting in the wings. But with the removal of Summerlin North, it may be a little harder to find a West Side Democrat to run here. However, Democrats may want to look at the other end of the valley (particularly at a couple folks on the Henderson City Council) for future recruits.

2010 US Senate Results

48.2% Angle (R)

46.5% Reid (D)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results

51% Obama (D)

46% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: R+2

Early Race Rating: Leans Republican

NV-01 (The Baby Blue District)

Population: 675,092

43.7% Latino (38.1% voting age), 32.2% White (37.6% voting age), 14.4% African American (14.4% voting age)

The State of Play

Shelley is back… Or at the very least, this seat is hers as long as she wants it. If Shelley Berkley does decide to sit out the Senate race next year and stay in The House for now, she still has a super safe seat ready for her.

This seat is just slightly more Republican than the last version, but still slightly more Democratic than the NV-01 drawn in 2001. And again, that’s just because the district (once again) has to stretch west toward Red Rock Canyon to dip into Shelley’s elegant stomping grounds of Peccole Ranch and Summerlin North. However, this does very much alter the ultimate state of play here.

Who’s All In?

Without Summmerlin, this district can finally send a North Las Vegas politico like State Senators Steven Horsford or Ruben Kihuen to Congress. But with this configuration, high turnout West End ‘hoods like Summerlin and Desert Shores will probably remain quite dominant in the primary, meaning Shelley will go untouched as long as she wants to remain in NV-01…

The Wild Cards

And should she finally run for higher office or retire later in the decade, a Summerlin area Democrat like State Senator Allison Copening (D-Summerlin) or Clark County Commissioner (and Future Las Vegas Mayor?) Larry Brown (D-Las Vegas) definitely has a good chance here. But if Ruben Kihuen can be patient and turn out his enthusiastic “NorTown” base, he will still have a strong fighting chance as this district continues to inch toward becoming majority Latino and supermajority minority-majority. And honestly, neither can Horsford be counted out, especially if he can wait another cycle or two for Shelley to step aside.

2010 US Senate Results

62.5% Reid (D)

33.1% Angle (R)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results

66% Obama (D)

32% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: D+13

Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic, regardless of who ultimately runs here

NV-04 (Light Spring Green)

Population: 674,936

48.6% White (53.2% voting age), 27% Latino (23.1% voting age), 11.8% Asian American (12.3% voting age)

The State of Play

It’s still open season here… Perhaps even more so if Shelley indeed decides to stay put next door. The district hooks into The West Side to take whiter neighborhoods left out of NV-01, then jumps down to the increasingly diverse Spring Valley, then hops across The Strip to The East Side and some of East Las Vegas (and ultimately to Lake Mead), then climbs uphill to grab the more Democratic leaning Henderson precincts of Green Valley and Green Valley Ranch, then sweeps through the diverse and increasingly Democratic friendly Silverado Ranch communuity, then hops back across The 15 to snatch some minority-majority neighborhoods in the once rapidly growing Southwest.

Who’s All In?

Need we ask? Rory Reid is probably out of the running for good, and Dina Titus‘ political stock continues to rebound. This time, she just might get a seat she can get comfy in.

The Wild Cards

However, Dina also can’t take this seat for granted. Both Former Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley (D-Spring Valley) and current Assembly Speaker John Oceguera (D-Silverado Ranch) are eyeing this district, and both have far better relationships with the Nevada Democratic establishment than Dina Titus.

2010 US Senate Results

56.0% Reid (D)

39.3% Angle (R)

Estimated 2008 Presidential Results

60% Obama (D)

37% McCain (R)

Estimated Cook PVI: D+7

Early Race Rating: Likely Democratic, and will probably be downgraded to Safe Democratic so long as the eventual nominee isn’t caught in a Rory-like scandal

Suffice to say, a whole lot changes if Shelley Berkley decides to stay in The House rather than run for Senate. The Clark based districts will probably have to be gerrymandered at least somewhat to keep everyone happy.

And up north, the fate of NV-02 may very well rest on what Sharron Angle decides to do, and what her once ardent “tea party” supporters think of Brian Krolicki and Mark Amodei. If Angle can regain their trust, or if she runs for Senate instead and allows someone like Kirk Lippold to consolidate the tea tinged Northern Nevada far right base, Krolicki may not be in for an easy ride regardless of whether Dean Heller decides to anoint a successor. And with Kate Marshall now eyeing a run here as well, Democrats may actually have a pickup opportunity up north next year.