Swing State Project

Time to add another district to the Open Seat Watch. From the Chicago Sun-Times:

“I’m in,” declared West Side Congressman Danny Davis by phone from Washington on Friday morning.

Davis had worked late the night before on President Obama’s health-care bill, which passed out of the House Ways and Means Committee just before midnight. But as much as Davis loves policy work, as important as his seat on the Ways and Means committee is to Illinois, after six terms he’s coming home.

“I’m in” means he’s leaving Congress to run for president of the Cook County Board in 2010, a position now occupied by the embattled Todd Stroger, who says he’s running too.

There’s no danger of Davis’ heavily African-American, D+35 district of ever flipping to the GOP, so the action here will be in the Democratic primary. Davis’s former Chief of Staff Richard Boykin has already expressed his interest, but CQ recently identified state Reps. LaShawn Ford and Karen Yarbrough, state Sen. Rickey Hendon, and Aldermen Dorothy Tillman and Ed Smith as possibilities.

RaceTracker wiki: IL-07

• IL-Sen: Today’s the day for Mark Kirk’s official entry into the Senate race, despite the fact that everyone and his dog already knows he’s running. He got one unwelcome piece of news over the weekend, though: a primary challenge, from retired state trial court judge Don Lowery, from Pope County downstate. Apparenty the unknown Lowery doesn’t pose as much of an obstacle as state GOP chair Andy McKenna would have, as Kirk didn’t storm out of the race this time.

• NV-Sen: The Las Vegas Review-Journal’s newest poll finds that John Ensign’s numbers continue to slip. His approval rating is 31%, down from 39% last month (post-scandal, but before news of his parental payoff) and from 53% pre-scandal. Only 34% think he should resign, though.

• NH-Sen: Businessman Fred Tausch launched a subtle attack against likely GOP primary opponent Kelly Ayotte over the weekend, accusing “the governor, the attorney general, and legislature” of putting the state on the path toward an income tax.

• NY-Sen-B: Ooops. Rep. Carolyn Maloney was caught using the N-word in an interview with City Hall News. She was quoting someone secondhand, but still sounds bad out of context.

• NC-Sen: Guess who’s a member of the Run, Elaine, Run! Facebook group that’s trying to get Elaine Marshall to run for Senate? Elaine Marshall! Now I don’t know if that’s a tea leaf that she’s interested or just a friending-someone-to-be-polite situation, but it’s interesting. (H/t possumtracker1991.)

• NJ-Gov: The New York Times reports that Jon Corzine, in the wake of a costly divorce and a big hit to his portfolio, is having raise campaign funds from contributors like a mere mortal. His goal is $15 million from donors, on top of no more than $25 million of his own money. (That’s compared to the $60 million he spent on his 2000 Senate race.)

• NM-Gov: Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez, who we mentioned last week, went ahead and just full-on into the GOP primary for the open governor’s race in New Mexico, skipping the exploratory phase. Meanwhile, investment advisor and National Guard brigadier general Greg Zanetti, who for most of the was the only declared GOP candidate although without seemingly getting much traction, dropped out of the race, citing family concerns.

• PA-Gov: Auditor Jack Wagner confirmed on Friday in a TV interview that he’ll run for Governor in 2010. A formal announcement will come later, he says, but he’s still the first Democrat to sort-of-kind-of pull the trigger.

• NH-01: Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta has had a nose for bad news in the last few weeks, although “unpaid sewer bills” doesn’t sound quite as bad as “bar brawl…” y’know, unless you’re running as the “fiscal responsibility” candidate. For the second time, Guinta has failed to stay current on the sewer taxes on an apartment building he owns in Manchester (while, at the same time, he can afford to shore up his weak fundraising with a $20,000 personal loan).

• NY-23: This is poorly sourced and slightly incoherent, but a local GOP blog is reporting that Democratic state Sen. Darrel Aubertine did, in fact, get in the race for the NY-23 special election to replace Rep. John McHugh. (UPDATE: The Syracuse Post-Standard reports that the Democratic county chairs in the district have extended their deadline for candidates to express their interest in the race to Thursday, July 23rd at 5pm. Reading the tea leaves, it seems that the county chairs are eager to give the nomination to Aubertine, if he wants it.)

• OH-16: Buried deep in a story about friendly local teabaggers protesting Rep. John Boccieri’s cap-and-trade vote are the names of a couple potential GOP candidates in the 16th, a race that has escaped much of any scrutiny so far. Named are former Canton mayor Janet Creighton and businessman Jim Renacci, who owns the Columbus arena football franchise.

• KY-Lt. Gov: It’s never to early to start thinking about 2011. Steve Beshear chose his running mate for his re-election campaign (as current LG Dan Mongiardo won’t run again, as he plans on being Senator at that point); he’ll run with 20-year Louisville mayor Jerry Abramson.

According to census estimates, both Washington and Oregon are on the cusp of gaining another district. Hopefully both states will gain a district because they will be Democratic districts.

My goals are:

– Make the new districts Democratic.

– Make Dave Reichert’s district too Democratic.

– Cross the Cascades only once per state.

– Make the districts look compact and look fair.

The state maps are thumbnails. Click on it to link to a full-size map.

10 District Washington:

District 1: Rick Larsen (D) (blue) (Old 2nd)

Rural-and-small-cities Western Washington

The old 2nd district loses some territory in southwestern Snohomish County, including Everett and Marysville, and gainst territory in eastern King and Pierce Counties. Its population does not change much.

Population Per county:

County	New 1st	Old 2nd
San Juan	96718	96718
Whatcom	196529	196529
Skagit	118000	118000
Snohomish	139664	332734
King	65772	656
Pierce	38591	0

It is probably more Republican than before, but still Democratic enough.

District 2: Jay Inslee (D) (green) (Old 1st)

Cities/Suburbs North of Seattle

The old 2nd district loses its territory west of the Puget Sound and gains more territory in Snohomish County. Now it’s contiguous, and compact, and still safe for Democrats.

District 3: Jim McDermott (D) (purple) (Old 7th)

Seattle

The entire city of Seattle, plus a very small area directly south of the city. Because the suburbs are also very Democratic, there is nothing to gain by splitting the city among several districts. Seattle is 94% of the district’s population.

District 4: Dave Reichert (R) (red) (Old 8th)

Cities/Suburbs East of Seattle

This district is smaller than the old 8th, and more Democratic. Dave Reichert won’t be able to get reelected here.

District 5: Adam Smith (D) (yellow) (Old 9th)

Cities/Suburbs South of Seattle

There must have been a lot of growth here because this district is a lot smaller than the old 9th. It fills the corridor between Seattle and Tacoma without entering either city.

District 6: Norm Dicks (D) (turquoise) (Old 6th)

Cities/Suburbs West of Seattle

The 6th currently takes consists of the entire western peninsula. The new 6th is a compact urban district along the shore of the Puget Sound from Tacoma to Bremerton.

District 7: No Incumbent (gray)

Western Peninsula

This is the new district. It is everything west of the Puget Sound and north of the mouth of the Columbia, except the urban area around Seattle/Tacoma. Its largest city is Olympia. Finally Olympia dominates a congressional district; 37% of the district’s population is in Thurston County. It should be safely Democratic.

District 8: Brian Baird (D) (light purple) (Old 3rd)

Southern Washington

This district is dominated by Vancouver. Clark County is 65% of the district. This is the only district to cross the Cascades. It takes southern Yakima County and eastern Yakima city. Yakima will be the only county in Washington split between a Democratic and Republican district. I don’t have voting data, but here is the demographic data:

Yakima County	8th	9th	Total
Population	132430	102134	234564
%White	29%	78%	51%
%Hispanic	60%	16%	41%
%Native	6%	1%	4%

Southern Yakima is a welcome addition to a Democratic district.

District 9: Doc Hastings (R) (cyan) (Old 4th)

Western Eastern Washington

Strongly Republican.

District 10: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) (magenta) (Old 5th)

Eastern Eastern Washington

Republican enough.

9 District Washington:





The obvious differences between the 9 District map and the 10 district map are: there are only 4 urban Seattle-area districts, and this time one of the eastern districts has an appendage west of the Cascades.

District 1:

Extends further into the (probably Republican) suburbs of King and Pierce Counties. Now they make up nearly a quarter of the district’s population. So the district is still dominated by its northern counties, still safe for its Democratic incumbent, and should be safe for Democrats in the future.

District 2:

Takes more territory in northern King County.

District 3:

Takes more territory south of Seattle. But Seattle is still 85% of the district’s population.

District 4:

Still a more Democratic version of the existing 8th.

District 5:

Now it includes Tacoma.

District 6:

Similar to the existing 6th, but it trades Tacoma for Olympia.

District 7:

The Baird district loses Olympia and eastern Lewis County, and gains Grays Harbor County. This probably makes the district shift more Republican because even though Grays Harbor is Democratic, it has less population than Olympia.

District 8:

In addition to Eastern Washington, it takes 13000 residents in Lewis County. Lewis County is the only western county that voted for McCain.

District 9:

Just like the existing 5th, but a little bigger.

6 District Oregon:

District 1: Earl Blumenaur (D) (blue) (Old 3rd)

Portland

90% of its population is in the city of Portland. I recommend doing this as long as it doesn’t weaken the other districts too much.

District 2: David Wu (D) (green) (Old 1st)

Portland suburbs

A small suburban Portland district is a good idea, as long as it doesn’t pack in too much Democratic voting strength, weakening the other districts.

District 3: No Incumbent (purple)

Western Willamette Valley and Coast

The several small left-leaning counties in northwestern Oregon usually get split up and attached to urban districts. Now I’m putting them together in their own district. Its largest cities are Hillsboro and Corvallis.

District 4: Kurt Schrader (D) (red) (Old 5th)

Eastern Willamette Valley

I would only recommend creating a district like this if its portion of Clackamas County voted at least 52% for Obama. It includes Salem, Albany, and eastern Gresham.

District 5: Peter Defazio (D) (yellow) (Old 4th)

Southern Oregon

This is an interesting shape, mean to avoid the most rural conservative parts of Western Oregon. It starts in Lane County, including Eugene and Springfield, goes through northwest Douglas County, avoiding as much of the county as possible. It takes in all of Coos and Curry Counties. It takes southern Josephine, including Grants Pass, and southwest Jackson, including Medford and Ashland. It should be more Democratic than the existing 4th.

District 6: Greg Walden (R) (turquoise) (Old 2nd)

Eastern Oregon

All of eastern Oregon plus the rural conservative parts of southwestern Oregon.

5 District Oregon:



If Oregon only gets 5 districts, then at least they will be 4 safe Democratic districts. However it doesn’t preserve the “communities of interest” I created in the 2nd and 3rd districts of the 6 district version.

District 1:

Multnomah County and most of Columbia County.

District 2:

Portland’s western suburbs combined with the rural northwestern part of the state.

District 3:

Nearly all of Clackamas, all of Marion, all of Polk, and the northwest corner of Linn (Albany). Safe Democratic.

District 4:

I’m proud of this one. It starts in Lincoln County (60% Obama) and follows the coast. It takes Eugene and Springfield, as well as Grants Pass, Medford and Ashland.

District 5:

Eastern Oregon and a lot of rural conservative territory in Western Oregon.

Conclusion:

No matter what happens in the census, Republicans should get no more than 2 seats in Washington and 1 in Oregon. Putting Seattle in a single district is a good idea, while putting Portland in a single district could be risky. The idea that a Washington 8-2 plan makes stronger Democratic districts than a 7-2 plan is counterintuitive but it seems to be true.

Since I live here in Minneapolis, MN and am addicted to Dave’s Redistricting App, I decided to try my hand at redistricting MN two different ways, first, assuming we lose a district and second, assuming we do not lose a district. The 7 district plan is below and should produce a 6-1 DFL map, or at worst a 5-2. The 8 District Map could be 7-1, but will be 6-2 once Peterson retires I think.

I’m very much a compactness kind of guy, but that doesn’t mean you can’t get a good Democratic Gerrymander with a compact map. The Maps and district descriptions are below the fold:

Here’s the seven district map:

District 1: Tim Walz (DFL) Blue

I originally forgot to include Mankato, Walz’s home, in this district and had to do some fancy work with MN-7 to make in in the district, but it worked. This district has three main bases Mankato, Rochester and then the motherload, Dakota County and the suburbs it contains. This should be a significantly more DFL friendly district than the 1st as it exists now.



District 2: John Kline (R) Green

Kline should be the lone GOP Representative in MN under this map; I seriously packed GOP votes in here, though I almost forgot to include his home in Lakeville. Carver, Scott and Wright Counties house the GOP leaning exurbs that are the backbone of this district. It encompasses about half of the old 2nd and half of the old 6th. I took a couple of the GOP leaning portions of the 7th as well. Obama definitely lost this district, probably by about 10 points.



District 3: OPEN (formerly Erik Paulson (R)) Purple

I took Paulson’s home in Eden Prairie out of this district and gave all the GOP parts of Hennepin over to the 2nd. This district is based in Anoka County and will be a fairly 50-50 district I think, but will lean DFL over the next few years if it does not already lean that way. I considered including Bloomington in it, but it just got too messy.

District 4: Betty McCollum (DFL) vs Michelle Bachmann (R) Red

Placing Bachmann’s residence here was accidental at first, but too amusing not to go ahead with. This will be a walk in the park for McCollum, and Bachmann may move to run in the 2nd, but she might be crazy enough to think she can beat McCollum. This is essentially the old 4th plus a chunk of Washington County

District 5: Keith Ellison (DFL) vs Erik Paulson (R) Yellow

Now, some of you may be scared that Ellison won’t win this district. That’s ridiculous. Ellison did better in the 5th in 2008 than did his predecessor Martin Sabo who help the district for decades. Paulson may move to run in the new 3rd rather than go up against Ellison, but The addition of Eden Prairie and Edina to the true blue 5th helps spread some of the DFL love around.

District 6: Jim Obrestar (DFL) Teal?

The old 8th becomes the 6th and essentially stays the same. I reddened it a litle to help the 7th blue up a bit, but it still leans DFL.



District 7: Collin Peterson (DFL) Grey

Peterson’s district added a LOT considering its low population growth. It expanded to include much of the old 1st district and I had the 6th take some of the more red parts of the old 7th. It essentially is a R+2-4 district I think, but competative for the right Democrat when Peterson retires. He’ll hold it until he leaves though.

Now for the 8 District Map

District 1: Tim Walz (DFL)

I didn’t strengthen it much, but some of the GOP leaning rural areas went to the 7th. Walz will be fine here and Obama won the district.

District 2: OPEN (formerly John Kline(R) )

Kline might move here, as this is the heavy GOP seat, but then again, Paulson and Bachman may move here too, since I drew all 3 GOP reps out of their districts. Whoever represents the 2nd could be the lone GOP Representative in MN under this map; I seriously packed GOP votes in here. Carver, Scott and Wright Counties house the GOP leaning exurbs that are the backbone of this district, as well as St. Cloud. It encompasses about half of the old 2nd and half of the old 6th. I took a couple of the GOP leaning portions of the 7th as well. Obama definitely lost this district, probably by about 10 points.



District 3: John Kline (R)

Kline lives in this new version of the 3rd which is based around Bloomington, MN and Dakota County. Obama won this district by a few points and its prolly around D+1. Kline may run here or he may move to the 2nd but this is a lean DFL district.

District 4: Betty McCollum (DFL) vs Michelle Bachmann (R)

This will be a walk in the park for McCollum, and Bachmann may move to run in the 2nd or the 6th, but she might be crazy enough to think she can beat McCollum. This is essentially the old 4th plus a chunk of Washington County

District 5: Keith Ellison (DFL) vs Erik Paulson (R)

Now, some of you may be scared that Ellison won’t win this district. That’s ridiculous. Ellison did better in the 5th in 2008 than did his predecessor Martin Sabo who help the district for decades. Paulson may move to run in the new 2nd rather than go up against Ellison, but The addition of Eden Prairie and Edina to the true blue 5th helps spread some of the DFL love around.

District 6: OPEN (formerly Michelle Bachmann (R) )

This is a new incarnation of the 6th, based in Anoka county, but much more suburban than the old 6th. This leans DFL and it would be an easy win for Tinklenberg or another Mainstream DFLer.

District 7: Collin Peterson (DFL)

Peterson’s district added a bit considering its low population growth. It expanded to include some of the old 1st district and I had the 2nd take some of the more red parts of the old 7th. It essentially is a R+4-6 district I think, but could competative for the right Democrat when Peterson retires. He’ll hold it until he leaves though.

District 8: Jim Obrestar (DFL) Purple

The 8th essentially stays the same. I reddened it a little to help the 7th blue up a bit, but it still leans DFL.

Previous diaries

Summary:

 KY has 6 reps: 4 R, 2 D

 LA has 7 reps: 6 R, 1 D

 ME has 2 reps: Both D

Possibly vulnerable:

 KY-02 (R) (just a bit)

 LA-02 (R) VERY vulnerable.

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: KY-01

Location Southwestern KY, bordering IN, IL, MO and TN. map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Ed Whitfeld (R)

VoteView 286

First elected 1994

2008 margin 64-36 over Heather Ryan

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 67-33

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Current opponents

Demographics  11th most rural (63.5%), 29th lowest income (median = $30K), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment  Long shot

District: KY-02

Location Central KY, bordering IN. map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Brett Guthrie (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 322.5

First elected  1994

2008 margin 53-47 over David Boswell

2006 margin 55-45

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 38-61

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 37th most rural (52.8%), 61st most Republican on Cook PVI, 70th most Whites (90.6%)

Assessment  Guthrie ran well behind McCain, not a good sign.  He may be a little bit vulnerable.

District: KY-03

Location Louisville and suburbs, bordering INmap

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative John Yarmuth (D)

VoteView 132.5

First elected  2006

2008 margin 59-41 over Anne Northup

2006 margin 51-48

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-42

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents  None confirmed.

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: KY-04

Location Northern KY, bordering IN, OH, and a tiny bit of WV map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Geoff Davis (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 322.5

First elected  2004

2008 margin 63-37 over Michael Kelly

2006 margin 52-43

2004 margin 54-44

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Current opponents John Waltz (looks quite progressive)

Demographics  26th fewest Latinos (1.1%), 14th most Whites (95.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: KY-05

Location Southeastern KY, bordering VA, WV, and TN map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative Harold Rogers (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 321

First elected  1980

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 74-26

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin 31-67

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents Jim Holbert

Demographics  An unusual district.  The most rural (78.7%), 2nd lowest income (median income = $22K) (only NY16 is lower), most White (97.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), and 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%).

Assessment  Long shot

District: KY-06

Location Central KY, including Lexington map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Ben Chandler (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 211

First elected  2004

2008 margin 65-35 over John Larson

2006 margin 85-15 (vs. libertarian)

2004 margin 59-40

Obama margin 43-55

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents Matt Lockett

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: LA-01

Location Northeastern part of the southern part of LA, bordering MS and Lake Pontchartrain, including Metarie map

Cook PVI R + 24

Representative Steve Scalise (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 389

First elected  2007 (replacing Jindal)

2008 margin 66-34 over Jim Harlan

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 26-72

Bush margin 2004 71-29

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 10th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment  Long shot

District: LA-02

Location New Orleans map

Cook PVI D + 25

Representative Anh Cao (R)

VoteView NA

First elected  2009 (replacing Jefferson)

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 75-23

Bush margin 2004 24-75

Current opponents None confirmed, but Cedric Richmond, who ran against Jefferson, is considering.  Any Democrat is likely to beat Cao.

Demographics 10th lowest income (median = $27.5K), 40th fewest Whites (28.3%), 2nd most Blacks (63.7%) (only IL01 is higher)

Assessment  By far the most vulnerable candidate in any race.

District: LA-03

Location Southeastern LA, on the Gulf of Mexico map

Cook PVI R + 12

Representative Charlie Melancon (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 218

First elected  2004

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 55-40

2004 margin in runoff, Melancon won by 569 votes of 115,000

Obama margin 37-61

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  A very Republican district, but Melancon seems safe; but apparently he is really considering not running, as there are a whole slew of Democrats and Republicans thinking about running.  This bears watching.

District: LA-04

Location Western LA, bordering TX and AR, including Shreveportmap

Cook PVI R + 11

Representative John Fleming (R) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected  2009

2008 margin Beat Paul Carmouche by 356 votes

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 40-59

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Current opponents

Demographics  36th lowest income (median $31K), 36th most Blacks (33.3%)

Assessment  Long shot

District: LA-05

Location Northeastern LA, bordering MS and AR map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Rodney Alexander (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 306

First elected  2002

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 68-29

2004 margin 59% (no runoff)

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 9th lowest income (median = $27K), 24th most Blacks (33.7%)

Assessment  Long shot

District: LA-06

Location The northwestern part of the southern part of LA map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Bill Cassidy (R) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 48-40 over Don Cazayoux

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 41-57

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Cassidy ousted Cazayoux in a Democratic year; it will be tough to oust him, now, in an R + 10 district.

District: LA-07

Location Southwestern LA, bordering TX and the Gulf map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Charles Boustany (R)

VoteView 301

First elected  2004

2008 margin 62-34 over Don Cravins

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 55-45 in runoff

Obama margin 35-63

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 44th lowest income (median = $31K)

Assessment  Long shot

District: ME-01

Location The southern part of ME, including Portland map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Chellie Pingree (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 55-45 over Charles Summers

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 61-38

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 42nd most rural (50.6%), 4th most White (96.3%), 11th least Black (0.6%), 11th least Latino (0.8%) (only 6 districts have less than 1% Black and less than 1% Latino; two of them are in ME, and all of them have Democratic reps)

Assessment  Safe, Pingree won in an open race in 2008

District: ME-02

Location Northern ME, bordering Canada, a bit of NH, and the Atlantic map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Michael Michaud (D)

VoteView 135.5

First elected  2002

2008 margin 67-33 over John Frary

2006 margin 61-31

2004 margin 60-40

Obama margin 55-43

Bush margin 2004 46-52

Current opponents Jason Levesque

Demographics 3rd most rural (69%), 2nd most White (96.7%), 7th fewest Blacks (0.4%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)

Assessment  Safe

Cross-posted at Election Inspection 

Ladies and gentlemen, I present the Master List for House fundraising for all 435 House races in 2008 presented without any analysis (I’ll post an analysis of the data a bit later).

In addition to having all House races here, I also took the liberty of dividing races into different classifications, including races that were contested by the losing Party, ones where the losing Party spent money, and the ones where the losing candidate spent at least $100,000. The formatting should be self explanatory, but if you have any questions feel free to ask in the comments section. Oh and before I forget, all these numbers were compiled from Open Secrets (major kudos to the operators!)

Any thoughts on who will emerge to take on Sen. Junkie Einstein (R-SD)?

• NH-Sen: You may remember several weeks ago when John Sununu reassured the rabble that Kelly Ayotte was, in fact, a fire-breathing conservative. A recent hire, though, suggests she might be trying to position herself as a New England moderate — she brought aboard Thomas Daffron for her campaign, a former Susan Collins consultant and CoS to William Cohen. Which, again, will only increase the likelihood of a Fred Tausch and/or Ovide Lamontagne challenge from the right.

• NY-Sen-B: Harry Reid weighed in on the New York Senate primary, endorsing Kirsten Gillibrand, calling her a “rising star in the Democratic caucus.” Meanwhile, Joe Trippi, who’s been working for the Carolyn Maloney campaign (for which he received $10K in the second quarter), got busted for one of blogging’s cardinal sins when posting at HuffPo: not disclosing a paid relationship with a candidate.

• AK-Gov: Sean Parnell isn’t even Governor yet (he takes over on the 26th), and would-be rivals are already sizing him up. The former state House Speaker, John Harris, announced that he’ll run against Parnell in the 2010 GOP primary. Which may seem odd, since Parnell is nowhere near as polarizing as predecessor Sarah Palin… but that may be exactly what’s motivating the more combative Harris, as he may think the inoffensive Parnell is something of a pushover, as seen by Parnell’s inability to close the deal against corrupt Don Young in the 2008 GOP House primary.

• MN-Gov: The field keeps growing, as two more Republicans made it official in the last couple days that they’re candidates for the gubernatorial nomination next year: state Senator David Hann and former state Auditor Pat Anderson.

• NY-Gov: AG Andrew Cuomo’s mouth may be saying that he’s not running against David Paterson in next year’s gubernatorial primary, but his wallet says otherwise. Cuomo raised $5.1 million in the last six months, which more than doubles up on Paterson, who raised $2.3 million in the same period.

• CO-04: The media war over cap-and-trade continues in CO-04 as well as in VA-05; the Environmental Defense Action Fund (paid for by green energy companies) is running a thank-you ad on TV in favor of Rep. Betsy Markey’s cap-and-trade vote. She’s already had a thank-you TV ad from Americans United for Change run in her favor, and been the target of NRCC robocalls as well (but no TV from them, at least yet).

• FL-10: More bad PR for Rep. Bill Young, whose bad fundraising quarter suggests he might be looking to cash in his chips. Young had to kill a $4 million earmark for St. Petersburg defense contractor Conax, after Conax was raided by federal agents several days ago. Conax has been a frequent recipient of the largesse of Young, the ranking Republican on Appropriations, to the tune of $28.5 million in earmarks since 2005. (Perhaps not coincidentally, Young received $123,000 in contributions in the last two years from defense contractors for whom he’s seeking earmarks this  year.)

• FL-13: With Rep. Vern Buchanan facing big legal questions over sketchy campaign finance practices, Dems need to have someone credible on deck here to capitalize in case Buchanan implodes. Looks like they’ve found a credible challenger: pastor and former Bradenton city councilor James Golden.

• MN-06: With local heavyweight state Sen. Tarryl Clark jumping into the Democratic field, 2008 candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg (who came within 3 points of unseating Rep. Michele Bachmann) is making noises that he may go all the way to the primary regardless of what Clark does. In most states, that wouldn’t be the least bit surprising, but remember that Minnesota picks its DFL nominees by nominating endorsing convention prior to the primary and it’s highly unusual to see contested primaries. With former UM regent Maureen Reed clearly also a serious candidate (based on her last fundraising quarter), this looks like it’ll be dramatic.

• MS-03: So maybe you were wondering what was happening a year ago when thirty-something GOP rising star Rep. Chip Pickering, who’d been considered a likely successor to Trent Lott’s Senate seat, instead of going for that or even running for re-election, simply dropped out of politics altogether. Well, turns out he was given an ultimatum by his mistress of choosing between her or politics (which, in rural Mississippi, would require continuing his sham marriage to his wife) — and, somewhat unpredictably, he chose the mistress. The kicker? Pickering was, at the time, a resident of the now-infamous C Street townhouse, making him a roommate of John Ensign and ex-roomie of Mark Sanford.

• NY-23: Just a reminder, in case you were thinking of running for Congress: today is the deadline for Democratic applicants for the nomination in the open seat race in NY-23 to make their intentions known. Still no word on whether or not state Sen. Darrel Aubertine is planning to take the plunge or not.

• OH-AG: We finally have some confirmation about what “statewide” office former Sen. Mike DeWine was planning to run for. It’s been leaked that next week he’ll announce a run for Attorney General (and not Governor). He’ll face Democratic incumbent Richard Cordray, who took over in mid-term from Marc Dann.