Month: April 2010

AZ-Sen (4/13, likely voters, no trendlines):

Rodney Glassman (D): 32

John McCain (R-inc): 54

Some other: 8

Not sure: 6

Rodney Glassman (D): 39

J.D. Hayworth (R): 48

Some other: 7

Not sure: 7

(MoE: ±4.5%)

AZ-Sen (R primary) (4/13, likely voters, 3/16 in parentheses):

John McCain (R-inc): 47 (48)

J.D. Hayworth (R): 42 (41)

Some other: 2 (3)

Not sure: 8 (8)

(MoE: ±4%)

CA-Sen (4/12, likely voters, 3/11 in parentheses):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 43 (43)

Tom Campbell (R): 41 (41)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 10 (10)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (46)

Carly Fiorina (R): 38 (40)

Some other: 7 (4)

Not sure: 13 (10)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (46)

Chuck DeVore (R): 39 (40)

Some other: 8 (4)

Not sure: 12 (9)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CO-Gov (4/14, likely voters, 3/4 in parentheses):

John Hickenlooper (D): 42 (42)

Scott McInnis (R): 48 (48)

Some other: 4 (3)

Not sure: 6 (6)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CO-Sen (4/5, likely voters, 3/2 in parentheses):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (39)

Jane Norton (R): 46 (48)

Some other: 5 (7)

Not sure: 8 (6)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 40 (38)

Ken Buck (R): 44 (44)

Some other: 3 (6)

Not sure: 12 (11)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 39 (40)

Tom Wiens (R): 45 (43)

Some other: 4 (7)

Not sure: 12 (11)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 38 (42)

Jane Norton (R): 49 (44)

Some other: 5 (6)

Not sure: 8 (9)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 37 (40)

Ken Buck (R): 45 (41)

Some other: 4 (5)

Not sure: 13 (13)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 38 (41)

Tom Wiens (R): 45 (41)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 11 (13)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CT-Gov (4/1, likely voters, 2/1 in parentheses):

Ned Lamont (D): 37 (40)

Tom Foley (R): 44 (37)

Some other: 7 (9)

Not sure: 13 (14)

Ned Lamont (D): 41 (41)

Michael Fedele (R): 38 (33)

Some other: 9 (8)

Not sure: 12 (18)

Dan Malloy (D): 35 (37)

Tom Foley (R): 44 (36)

Some other: 8 (10)

Not sure: 14 (18)

Dan Malloy (D): 40 (36)

Michael Fedele (R): 37 (35)

Some other: 7 (9)

Not sure: 16 (21)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CT-Sen (4/7, likely voters, 3/2 in parentheses):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 52 (58)

Rob Simmons (R): 38 (32)

Some other: 4 (3)

Not sure: 6 (7)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 55 (60)

Linda McMahon (R): 35 (31)

Some other: 3 (3)

Not sure: 6 (7)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 58 (57)

Peter Schiff (R): 32 (27)

Some other: 4 (6)

Not sure: 6 (10)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

FL-Sen (R primary) (4/8, likely voters, 3/18 in parentheses):

Marco Rubio (R): 57 (56)

Charlie Crist (R): 28 (34)

Some other: 3 (1)

Not sure: 12 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IL-Gov (4/5, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 38 (37)

Bill Brady (R): 45 (47)

Some other: 7 (6)

Not sure: 10 (9)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IL-Sen (4/5, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 37 (44)

Mark Kirk (R): 41 (41)

Some other: 8 (5)

Not sure: 13 (10)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

KY-Sen (3/31, likely voters, 3/2 in parentheses):

Jack Conway (D): 36 (34)

Rand Paul (R): 50 (49)

Some other: 3 (4)

Not sure: 11 (13)

Jack Conway (D): 32 (31)

Trey Grayson (R): 52 (49)

Some other: 5 (6)

Not sure: 11 (14)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 37 (34)

Rand Paul (R): 52 (51)

Some other: 3 (3)

Not sure: 8 (12)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 33 (33)

Trey Grayson (R): 53 (46)

Some other: 5 (5)

Not sure: 9 (16)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

LA-Sen (4/, likely voters, 3/10 in parentheses):

Charlie Melancon (D): 36 (34)

David Vitter (R-inc): 52 (57)

Some other: 4 (3)

Not sure: 8 (6)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MA-Gov (4/5, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):

Deval Patrick (D): 35 (35)

Charlie Baker (R): 27 (32)

Tim Cahill (I): 23 (19)

Not sure: 15 (14)

Deval Patrick (D): 38 (34)

Christy Mihos (R): 15 (19)

Tim Cahill (I): 33 (30)

Not sure: 14 (16)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MO-Sen (4/6, likely voters, 3/9 in parentheses):

Robin Carnahan (D): 42 (41)

Roy Blunt (R): 48 (47)

Some other: 3 (4)

Not sure: 7 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NH-Gov (4/7, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):

John Lynch (D-inc): 47 (50)

John Stephen (R): 37 (35)

Some other: 5 (2)

Not sure: 11 (14)

John Lynch (D-inc): 50 (51)

Jack Kimball (R): 34 (32)

Some other: 4 (3)

Not sure: 12 (13)

John Lynch (D-inc): 50 (54)

Karen Testerman (R): 33 (28)

Some other: 6 (5)

Not sure: 11 (14)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NH-Sen (4/7, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):

Paul Hodes (D): 35 (37)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 50 (47)

Some other: 4 (4)

Not sure: 11 (12)

Paul Hodes (D): 37 (36)

Bill Binnie (R): 49 (46)

Some other: 4 (4)

Not sure: 10 (14)

Paul Hodes (D): 39 (42)

Ovide Lamontagne (R): 44 (38)

Some other: 7 (5)

Not sure: 11 (15)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NV-Gov (3/31, likely voters, 3/3 in parentheses):

Rory Reid (D): 43 (44)

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 45 (36)

Some other: 8 (15)

Not sure: 4 (4)

Rory Reid (D): 34 (35)

Brian Sandoval (R): 55 (53)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 4 (5)

Rory Reid (D): 38 (37)

Mike Montandon (R): 45 (42)

Some other: 9 (13)

Not sure: 8 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NV-Sen (3/31, likely voters, 3/3 in parentheses):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (38)

Sue Lowden (R): 54 (51)

Some other: 4 (7)

Not sure: 2 (3)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 42 (37)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 49 (50)

Some other: 6 (9)

Not sure: 2 (4)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (38)

Sharron Angle (R): 51 (46)

Some other: 6 (11)

Not sure: 3 (5)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Sen (4/12, likely voters, 3/15 in parentheses):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 40 (40)

Pat Toomey (R): 50 (49)

Some other: 4 (5)

Not sure: 6 (7)

Joe Sestak (D): 36 (37)

Pat Toomey (R): 47 (42)

Some other: 5 (7)

Not sure: 12 (15)

(MoE: ±3%)

PA-Sen (D primary) (4/12, likely voters, 3/15 in parentheses):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 44 (48)

Joe Sestak (D): 42 (37)

Some other: 4 (5)

Not sure: 10 (9)

(MoE: ±5%)

UT-Gov (4/8, likely voters, no trendlines):

Peter Corroon (D): 29

Gary Herbert (R-inc): 57

Some other: 4

Not sure: 10

(MoE: ±3%)

UT-Sen (R primary) (4/8, likely voters):

Bob Bennett (R-inc): 37

Tim Bridgewater (R): 14

Mike Lee (R): 14

Merrill Cook (R): 6

Cherilyn Eagar (R): 4

Some other: 3

Not sure: 21

(MoE: ±4%)

WA-Sen (4/6, likely voters, 3/9 in parentheses):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (46)

Dino Rossi (R): 46 (49)

Some other: 3 (3)

Not sure: 4 (2)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (48)

Don Benton (R): 40 (37)

Some other: 4 (3)

Not sure: 8 (12)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 47 (49)

Clint Didier (R): 37 (30)

Some other: 5 (6)

Not sure: 11 (15)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 46 (47)

Chris Widener (R): 37 (32)

Some other: 5 (5)

Not sure: 12 (16)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 45 (NA)

Paul Akers (R): 37 (NA)

Some other: 5 (NA)

Not sure: 13 (NA)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

With candidate filing now closed in 28 states (as per the SSP election calender)it is time to pause, take a deep breath, and have a look at how both parties are traveling vis a vis candidate recruitment for the House of Representatives.

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

State      No of CD’s    D    R

Alabama         7CD      4    7

Arkansas        4CD      4    4

California      53CD     51   52

Idaho           2CD      2    2

Illinois        19CD     19   18

Indiana         9CD      9    9

Iowa            5CD      5    5

Kentucky        6CD      6    6

Maine           2CD      2    2

Mississippi     4CD      4    4

Missouri        9CD      8    9

Montana         1CD      1    1

Nebraska        3CD      3    3

Nevada          3CD      3    3

New Jersey      13CD     13   13

New Mexico      3CD      3    3

North Carolina  13CD     13   13

North Dakota    1CD      1    1

Ohio            18CD     18   18

Oregon          5CD      5    5

Pennsylvania    19CD     18   18

South Carolina  6CD      6    6

South Dakota    1CD      1    1

Tennessee       9CD      9    9

Texas           32CD     26   32

Utah            3CD      3    3

Virginia        11CD Parties can nominate candidates until May 15th

West Virginia   3CD      3    3

TOTAL           316      302  313

So the GOP are contesting 11 more House districts than us.

In 2006 We contested 425 and in 2008 421. This year we will be lucky to get to 410. As for the GOP they are well on the way to contesting 430 or so; which would be a record.

What a shame.

I can feel the earth begin to move – I hear my needle hit the groove.

In today’s digest, we mentioned that Georgia Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond was leaning towards a bid against frosh GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson. That was a nice bit of unexpected good news, considering that most of the chatter surrounding a Thurmond candidacy seemed purely grounded on hypothetical speculation. It now looks like you can take a Thurmond candidacy to the bank:

State Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond, a Democrat, on Tuesday will announce his entrance into the U.S. Senate race against Republican Johnny Isakson.

Thurmond, one two remaining Democrats holding statewide office, had been spoken of as a candidate for lieutenant governor.

But many Democrats had expressed concern that a strong bid for governor could be affected by the lack of a strong candidate at the top of the ticket running against Isakson.

While a recent R2K poll gave Isakson a 53-26 lead over Thurmond, this is still good news all around for Georgia Democrats. Thurmond’s candidacy will be expected to help gin up turnout among African-American voters, and perhaps enjoy some reciprocal benefits from the gubernatorial candidacy of ex-Gov. Roy Barnes.

• GA-Sen: Here’s some great news out of Georgia: we may actually score a late top-tier challenger in the Senate race. Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond, who’s held that office since 1998, has been considering promotion opportunities (including, reportedly, not just this but also a GA-12 primary challenge), and it looks like he’s likely to pull the trigger on a run against Johnny Isakson. Isakson has had soft approval ratings, but has benefited from lack of much of a challenge (R.J. Hadley is the only announced Dem). A recent R2K poll had Thurmond losing to Isakson 53-26, but maybe that poll gave some encouragement to Thurmond in that he might be able to ride the surging Roy Barnes’s coattails a bit (and maybe also give a boost to Barnes, by driving up African-American turnout).

• NV-Sen: Mason-Dixon, for the Las Vegas Review-Journal did another poll of the Nevada Senate, despite having issued one just a week ago. I’m not exactly sure why; perhaps they felt that, in the wake of Jon Scott Ashjian’s bad week (with revelations of the financial disaster in his personal life, as well as the kerfuffle about whether he even qualifies for the ballot), they needed to re-evalute. They also added another right-wing third-party candidate to the mix, Tim Fasano of the American Independent Party. Polling only on the Harry Reid/Sue Lowden matchup, they find not much has changed. Ashjian’s support has dropped, but that may have more to do with the addition of Fasano to the mix and the splitting of the hardcore no-RINOs crowd. They found Lowden 47, Reid 37, Fasano 3, and Ashjian 2. (Compared with last week’s 46-38, with 5 for Ashjian.) At least one thing is going right for Ashjian: he was just given the green light by a court to remain on the ballot for the Tea Party, despite the fact that he was still a registered Republican when he filed.

• NY-Sen: The search goes on for a challenger to Chuck Schumer, and the GOP may have a willing victim: George Maragos. You can’t fault Maragos for lack of ambition: he was just became Nassau County Comptroller at the start of the year, as part of the GOP’s comeback in Nassau in November, and he’s already looking to move up. Political consultant Jay Townsend has also floated his name for the race.

• WI-Sen: Beer baron (and former state Commerce Secretary) Dick Leinenkugel didn’t waste much time following Tommy Thompson’s rambling announcement of his non-candidacy; he issued a statement last night that sounds very candidate-ish, although the jist of it was to “stay tuned” over the next couple weeks.

• MN-Gov: Coleman endorses Rybak! No, relax, not Norm Coleman. Chris Coleman, mayor of St. Paul and an oft-rumored candidate himself last year, endorsed R.T. Rybak, mayor of the other Twin City (Minneapolis) for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.

• CA-11: Here’s a race to keep an eye on. David Harmer, who performed above expectations in the CA-10 special last year, is doing well in the next-door 11th also. He raised $380K last quarter, outpacing Democratic Rep. Jerry McNerney’s $286K.

• MN-06: Rep. Michele Bachmann rode the Crazy Train all the way to Moneyville, it looks like. She raised $810K in the first quarter, giving her $1.53 million CoH. If that number seems eerily familiar, it’s almost exactly what was reported by Alan Grayson, her lightning-rod bookend at the other end of Congress.

• MO-08: Sleeper candidate Tommy Sowers reported a nice cash haul ($295K for the quarter), and now it looks like he’s outraised incumbent GOP Rep. Jo Ann Emerson for the second straight quarter. She brought in only $223K.

• NC-08: One guy’s who’s lagging on the fundraising front — although it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, given the last four years of history — is Democratic freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (lauded, or notorious, depending on your perspective, for preferring to work on a shoestring budget). He raised only $72K for the quarter, giving him $326K CoH, as he was outpaced by self-funding GOP opponent Tim D’Annunzio.

• NV-03: Rep. Dina Titus may not be faring well in the polls against Joe Heck, but she’s whupping him in the cash department. Titus raised $254K last quarter and has $902K CoH, compared with $148K raised and $257K CoH for Heck.

• NY-24: There’s a less somewhere in here about keeping your base (you know, the ones holding the wallets) happy. Rep. Mike Arcuri’s fundraising wasn’t that impressive for a competitive race, as he raised $208K, leaving him with $493K CoH. He was outpaced by GOP rival Richard Hanna, who raised $358K (and reports the same amount as CoH).

• OH-15: Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy had a good quarter, raising $308K. It still wasn’t enough to top her GOP competition, Steve Stivers, though; he reported $367K for the quarter.

• PA-10: Here’s a loudly-touted GOP candidate who’s not living up to the hype yet. Ex-US Attorney Tom Marino’s first quarter was unimpressive, raising $111K and ending up with $74K CoH. Democratic incumbent Rep. Chris Carney sits on $665K CoH.

• PA-12: The DCCC is getting involved in a big way in the 12th, laying out $136K for ad time in the special election in the 12th. The ad is a negative ad against the GOP’s Tim Burns. Also, while he has a small cash edge over Dem Mark Critz right now, it’s fitting that, given his name, Mr. Burns is self-funding his campaign. Of the $325K raised by his campaign so far, $221K has come from his own pocket.

• VA-11: It looks like this is going to be a big money race all around. As the gear up for the GOP primary, Fairfax Co. Supervisor Pat Herrity and rich guy Keith Fimian are engaged in a tiresome spin battle about who has more money. Herrity raised $275K despite a late entry during the quarter and has $195K CoH, while Fimian raised $278K and has $609K CoH. Rep. Gerry Connolly can marshal his resources for the general; he bested them both, raising $446K and sitting on $1.04 million CoH.

• WV-01: Mike Oliverio, running in the Democratic primary, had a big quarter: he raised $240K and has as much cash on hand as Rep. Alan Mollohan.

• NY-AG: Former Rep. and NYC controller Elizabeth Holtzman looks poised for yet another comeback; she’s released an internal poll showing her with a big lead in the Democratic AG primary, which, while she’s not running yet, isn’t the usual action of someone who doesn’t plan to run. Her poll finds her at 29%, with Nassau Co. DA Kathleen Rice in second at 9%.

• DNC: Someone at the DNC seems to know what to do: they’re pledging to spend $50 million on cash and field operations for the 2010 midterm. They say there’s going to be a big emphasis on base turnout (youth, African-Americans and Latinos, first-time voters); in other words, they understand they need to rebuild the Obama coalition as much as possible to limit losses in November.

Quinnipiac (4/8-13, registered voters, 1/20-24 in parentheses):

Charlie Crist (R-inc): 33 (44)

Marco Rubio (R): 56 (47)

Undecided: 10 (8)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 24

Marco Rubio (R): 30

Charlie Crist (I): 32

Undecided: 13

Kendrick Meek (D): 38 (35)

Marco Rubio (R): 42 (44)

Undecided: 17 (19)

Kendrick Meek (D): 34 (36)

Charlie Crist (R): 48 (48)

Undecided: 14 (12)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

A whole lot has happened in the last 24 hours since this poll from Quinnipiac came out. I’m not sure if seeing this poll was Crist’s “fuck it” moment, or if he’d already decided to act, but yesterday he took a sorta-bold step back on the path toward independence that he once walked: Crist vetoed legislation passed by Florida’s GOP-held legislature, near and dear to conservative hearts, that pushed merit pay and limited teacher tenure. His veto is a thumb in the eye to the local GOP establishment, and probably ends any remaining vestigial possibility of him winning the Senate primary against right-wing darling Marco Rubio.

The reaction from the rest of the state’s GOP was pretty swift: he lost endorsements from state legislators almost immediately, NRSC chair John Cornyn (who’d previously sheepishly stuck by his Crist endorsement) started warning Crist about getting any ideas about straying off the reservation, and by the end of the day, Crist had lost his campaign chair: Connie Mack (the former Sen., not the current Rep.).

Rumors were flying this morning that Crist advisers were now pivoting toward an independent run, or else dropping out altogether and moving toward a 2012 run against Bill Nelson. And just hours ago, despite having made a Shermanesque statement last week about an indie run, Crist said something that the media is running with as an indication that the indie bid is imminent: in response to questions about an indie bid, he said, “I’m not thinking about that today. We’ll look at that later on.” Not quite political oratory on the order of “We having nothing to fear but fear itself,” but certainly a provocative question mark. (Although with the filing deadline coming up within weeks, “later on” can’t be much later.)

In the event the indie bid happens, Quinnipiac shows that the GOP near-slam-dunk turns into a three-way frenzy where Crist, Rubio, or even Dem Kendrick Meek have a credible shot. Interestingly, Quinnipiac also finds that Meek has been gaining on Rubio in the head-to-head (down only 4), as Meek works his tail off under the radar (as seen with his unnecessary, but framework-building petition gathering scheme) while Rubio’s right-wing leanings may be getting more apparent to the casual viewer. So, whether or not this turns into a three-way race, the Dems need to watching this one closely.

UPDATE: I’m not sure if this was planned or the veto was the last straw, but Mitt Romney, about as establishment a GOP figure as you can get, just endorsed Marco Rubio in this race.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (4/11-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Charles Djou (R): 32

Ed Case (D): 29

Colleen Hanabusa (D): 28

Other: 4

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±5%)

Thanks to Hawaii’s weird special election configuration where all parties are piled into one pool together, Republican Charles Djou seems to be in position to win by virtue of getting a small plurality in a three-way race rather than the usual majority. R2K’s poll closely tracks the leaked DCCC poll of the race (where it was 32 Djou, 32 Case, 27 Hanabusa), although it appears that the difficulties of polling in Hawaii hamstrung R2K, who say they had trouble getting a representative sample and had to settle for a higher margin of error than usual.

The race in HI-01 is starting to remind me of one of those Quentin Tarantino prisoner’s-dilemma standoffs where you have three guys standing in a triangle, all pointing guns at each other’s heads. In a perfect world, one Dem would back down, because the national party can’t afford the symbolism of a loss here (even though it’s a seat that they’d be likely to recover in November in a normal head-to-head race — simply because the media would be incapable of explaining the nuances of the loss beyond “OMG! Dems in disarray lose Barack Obama’s home district!”).

But neither Case nor Hanabusa is likely to get out of the special, because doing so would give the other the benefit of incumbency going into the regularly-scheduled September primary, when presumably they would want to face off against each other. Hanabusa, probably because of her role in the state legislature, has lower approvals than Case (37/31, vs. Case’s 47/25, which may explain why the DCCC wants her to be the one who walks the plank), but with her backing by the state’s unions and political machine, she probably feels she has little reason to get out… and maybe with her backers’ GOTV operations, she still has a good shot in a low-turnout affair.

UPDATE: Nice catch from Reid Wilson, illuminating what Markos was alluding to his in his own writeup: the sample’s racial composition is way off, as the sample is 33% white and 38% Asian, despite the district actually being 53% Asian and 19% white.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Fundraising numbers from all three are available now. Despite Case’s moneybags reputation, he’s being outpaced by both Djou and Hanabusa. Djou has the most cash on hand ($492K, compared with $329K for Hanabusa and $214K for Case), while Hanabusa has raised the most over the course of the cycle, but also spent the most (she’s raised $712K, compared with $692K for Djou and $349K for Case).

The Central Plains region consists of Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, North Dakota, and South Dakota.  This region consists of states that have been solidly Republican for much of the 20th and 21st Century (South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas), a state that is about as conservative as any state in the Union (Oklahoma), a state that is part of the Solid South (Arkansas), and two states that have been swing states in the past (Iowa and Missouri).  The region’s population growth has been somewhat stagnant over the last 50 years, and there is no indication that this trend will change in the near future.

US House Representation Realignment

After the 1960 general election, the Democrats had approximately 60% of all house seats (and 64 of the 100 senate seats).  I have inserted below the results of certain general elections.

1960:  23(D), 22(R)

1962:  18(D), 21(R)

1964:  25(D), 14(R)

1966:  17(D), 22(R)

1970:  22(D), 17(R)

1974:  24(D), 13(R)

1980:  19(D), 18(R)

1982:  20(D), 15(R)

1990:  20(D), 15(R)

1994:  11(D), 22(R)

1996:  9(D), 24(R)

2004:  12(D), 20(R)

2006:  15(D), 17(R)

2008:  14(D), 18(R)

Back in 1960, the Democrats strength within this region was due to Oklahoma (5-1 Dem advantage), Arkansas (6-0 Dem advantage), and Missouri (9-2 Dem advantage).  The rest of the states had a Republican advantage of 19-3!.  By 1970, Oklahoma had a 4-2 Dem advantage, Missouri had a 9-1 Dem advantage, and Arkansas a 3-1 Dem advantage (Republicans had a 13-6 advantage in the other states).  Although the Dems gained considerable strength nationwide from the Watergate years, this region only nominally shifted support to the Dems.  By 1980, with the advent of the Reagan Revolutions, the Dems still had a 19-18 advantage (Arkansas now has a 2-2 split, Missouri a 6-4 Dem advantage, and Oklahoma a 5-1 Dem advantage).  By 1990, the Democratic advantage was 20-15 (Arkansas a 3-1 Dem advantage, Missouri a 6-3 Dem advantage, and Oklahoma a 4-2 Dem advantage).  After the first term of the Clinton administration, this region overwhelmingly supported the Repubicans, giving the GOP a 24-9 lead (while Missouri had a 5-4 Dem advantage, Arkansas was again split at 2-2, and Oklahoma had a resounding 6-0 GOP domination!).  The Dems has yet to regain their previous advantage, but made considerable strides in 20006 to narrow the GOP advantage to 17-15.  Today, this region has an 18-14 GOP house advantage.

US Senate Representation Realignment

1960:  7(D), 9(R)

1962:  8(D), 8(R)

1964:  8(D), 8(R)

1966:  8(D), 8(R)

1970:  8(D), 8(R)

1974:  9(D), 7(R)

1980:  7(D), 9(R)

1982:  7(D), 9(R)

1990:  9(D), 7(R)

1994:  8(D), 8(R)

1996:  7(D), 9(R)

2004:  7(D), 9(R)

2006:  8(D), 8(R)

2008:  8(D), 8(R)

I find it very interesting that neither party has obtained more than a 9-7 advantage in the last 50 years in terms of Senate seats.  While the Republicans will most likely (if not definitely) gain the ND seat, and will more than likely gain the AR senate seat, the Dems have a decent shot of gaining the MO seat.  If history is a precedent, which in this case I believe it will be, the Dems should be considered to have a psychological advantage of picking up the Missouri Senate seat.  If ND and AR were to change hands to the Republicans, and the Democrats were to lose in MO, the Republicans would have a 10-6 advantage.  It hasn’t happened in the last 50 years, so now I’m even more confident that Carnahan can defeat a weak candidate (Blunt).

Conclusions:

Overall, I’m concerned that we will lose several house seats in November 2010.  Specifically, we will have our hands full in ND-AL, SD-AL, IA-03, AR-01, AR-02, and KS-03.  If we were to lose these 6 seats, the Republicans would have their largest advantage in 50 years!  Truth be told, I think we can expect a split in these 3 seats (SD-AL, AR-01, and IA-03 should stay in our hands, while AR-02, KS-03, and ND-AL may be an uphill battle).  This area today clearly has a Republican advantage, but history has shown that the Democrats can elect good candidates over weaker Republican candidates.  In this region especially, proper candidate recruitment is a major boon for the Dems.

• CA-Sen: Russian law enforcement officers raided Hewlett-Packard’s Moscow offices today, as part of an investigation into whether HP paid millions in bribes to the Russian government to win a large contract. Why are we leading with this story today? Guess who was CEO of HP in 2003, when the contract was executed? That’s right… Carly Fiorina.

• CO-Sen: Ken Buck, the right-wing Weld County DA who’s become a fave of the teabagger set (to the extent that establishment GOPer Jane Norton isn’t even looking to compete at the activist-dominated state assembly), just received the endorsement of hard-right starmaker Jim DeMint. (Buck’s last quarter wasn’t that impressive, though: $219K raised, $417K CoH.)

• CT-Sen: Here’s an indication of the savvy investment skills that got Linda McMahon to the top. She revealed that she self-financed another $8 million this quarter, bringing her total self-funding all cycle to $14 million. (She also raised $37K from others.) What was the return on her gigantic investment? Now she’s down a mere 25-or-so points to a guy who speaks in 10-minute-long run-on sentences. Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, who has to rely on the kindness of strangers instead, has seen his fundraising get drier in a post-Chris Dodd environment; he raised only $550K last quarter.

• IN-Sen: Here’s a big fat fundraising fail, although it may explain why he didn’t see any shame in missing the reporting deadline. Republican ex-Sen. Dan Coats’ comeback bid managed to pull in a whopping $379K last quarter. (He has $331K CoH.)

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt is doubling down on the stingy: he reiterated his desire to repeal HCR, even the part about making sure that people with preexisting conditions are able to get coverage. He also lost another skirmish in the perception battle today, as Robin Carnahan narrowly outraised him for the first quarter, $1.5 million to $1.3 million.

• NH-Sen, NH-01: In the New Hampshire Senate race, Kelly Ayotte and Paul Hodes are pretty closely matched fundraising-wise: she raised $671K in Q1 with $1.3 million CoH, while he raised $665K with $1.7 million CoH. Ayotte’s GOP primary opponent, William Binnie, raised $400K from donors even though he’s mostly focused on self-funding; he’s sitting on $1.7 million CoH, despite having been advertising constantly. In the 1st, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, never much of a fundraiser, had a so-so quarter; she raised $168K and sits on $485K.

• NV-Sen: Although she’s been dwindling in the polls, don’t quite count out former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle yet. The Tea Party Express endorsed the one-time Club for Growth favorite in the GOP Senate primary.

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter continues to be the cash king in the Pennsylvania Senate race, now sitting on a $9 million warchest, but he was substantially outraised by Pat Toomey in the last quarter. Specter raised $1.1 million in the first quarter, half of Toomey’s haul.

• GA-Gov, GA-Sen: It’s strange we’ve been dropping the ball on mentioning this poll for almost a week now, as it’s good news for Democrats. Research 2000 polled the general election in the Georgia gubernatorial race, and found ex-Gov. Roy Barnes narrowly ahead in all three configurations. He leads expected GOP nominee Insurance Comm. John Oxendine, 45-42, ex-Rep. Nathan Deal 44-42, and ex-SoS Karen Handel 44-43. AG Thurbert Baker, if he somehow gets the Dem nod, loses 48-36 to Oxendine, 48-35 to Deal, and 49-35 to Handel. Over in the Senate race, GOP incumbent Johnny Isakson looks pretty safe: he beats Baker 50-34 and Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond 53-26 (not that either one is planning to run).

• ME-Gov: Good news for Dems turned into bad over the course of a few days; social conservative Michael Heath (former head of the Maine Family Policy Council) launched an independent bid earlier this week (which would only serve to hurt the GOP), then did an about face and pulled the plug on it today. There’s already one prominent indie candidate in the race, environmental lawyer Eliot Cutler, who seems poised to draw more from Dems than the GOP.

• OR-Gov: Here’s a camera-ready moment from last night’s debate between Democratic party candidates John Kitzhaber and Bill Bradbury at the University of Oregon. In response to calls of “is there a doctor in the house?” when an elderly audience member started having a seizure, Kitzhaber (a former emergency room doctor) hopped down from the podium, stabilized him, and once an ambulance had arrived, resumed debating.

• CA-03: Ami Bera continues to do well on the fundraising front; he raised $380K in the first quarter, and is sitting on $977K CoH as he prepares for a tough challenge to Republican Rep. Dan Lungren.

• DE-AL: We’re going to have a big-dollar race in the at-large seat in Delaware, which just had the entry of two different Republicans with the capacity to self-finance large sums. Democratic ex-LG John Carney is working hard to stay in the same ballpark; he raised $255K in the first quarter and sits on $675K.

• FL-08: Could we still see The Devil vs. Daniel Webster? Rep. Alan Grayson repelled the socially conservative former state Senator many months ago, forcing the NRCC to scramble to find a lesser replacement (businessman Bruce O’Donoghue seems to be their preferred pick, although state Rep. Kurt Kelly is also in the race). But now people close to Webster say he’s giving some consideration to getting back in the race (apparently undaunted by Grayson’s huge Q1 haul). Insiders seem to think that’s unlikely, though, given the late date.

• FL-19: Congratulations to our newest Democratic Congressperson, Rep. Ted Deutch. The winner of Tuesday’s special election was sworn in this afternoon.

• NY-01: The battle of the rich guys is on, in the GOP primary in the 1st. Facing well-connected Randy Altschuler, Chris Cox (son of state chair Ed Cox, and grandson of Richard Nixon) whipped out his own large balance sheet. He raised $735K for the quarter, and has $624K CoH. (Cox loaned himself $500K.)

• NY-20: Republican Chris Gibson seems to have finally locked down the GOP slot in the 20th, but he has a deep hole to dig his way out of, against Rep. Scott Murphy’s seven-digit warchest. Gibson raised $109K and has $92K CoH.

• OH-13: Wealthy car dealer Tom Ganley is moving even more of his own money into his uphill race against Rep. Betty Sutton. He loaned himself another $2 million (although apparently his cupboard was bare before he did so, as now his CoH is also $2 million). Sutton, seeming caught off-guard by Ganley’s entry, raised only $135K and is sitting on $281K.

• PA-06: Rep. Jim Gerlach raised $500K in his first quarter, after his belated decision to come back for his old job; he only has $335K CoH, though. Democratic opponent Doug Pike raised $225K but has $1.2 million CoH. (No word yet from his primary opponent, Manan Trivedi.)

• PA-07: Republican ex-US Attorney Pat Meehan continues to have a fundraising edge over Democratic state Rep. Bryan Lentz in the open seat in the 7th; Meehan raised $340K and has $855K CoH, while Lentz raised $235K and has $610K CoH.

• PA-08: Ex-Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick put up showy numbers a few days ago in his quest to get his seat back, but Rep. Patrick Murphy surpassed Fitzpatrick’s $510K. Murphy raised $586K and has $1.3 million CoH.

• PA-11: Finally, in Pennsylvania, Rep. Paul Kanjorski had a decent quarter, raising $260K (less than Lou Barletta’s $300K, but Kanjo has a mammoth CoH advantage, sitting on $1.2 million. Kanjorski’s Democratic primary rival Corey O’Brien has quite the burn rate: he raised $115K this quarter, but has only $47K CoH.

• Teabaggers: The Tea Party Express also issued a full target list today (no gun sights on their districts, though), and as befits their role as the corporate arm of the teabaggers, their goals aren’t that much different from those of the NRSC and NRCC. Top targets are (with the odd toss-in exception of Barney Frank) just the usual names considered most likely to lose, making it easy for them to claim they claimed some scalps come November: Harry Reid, Blanche Lincoln, Betsy Markey, Tom Perriello, and so on. They also list some heroes, and in the interest of bipartisan cover, they actually included a Democrat. In what’s not a surprise, it was ID-01’s Walt Minnick. (Wouldn’t it be ironic if their endorsement actually helped Minnick, likely to face a very close race this year, squeak by?) Also, on the teabagger front, Some Dude over at Salon looks at Tea Partier demographics and the roots of their resentments.