SSP Daily Digest: 4/20 (Morning Edition)

Today is definitely the right day for a ganja break….

  • CA-Sen: President Obama was out in California doing not one but three separate fundraising events for Sen. Barbara Boxer. The fundraisers are expected to bring in between $3 and $3.5 million, split between the DNC and the Boxer campaign. But I can’t imagine it will be an even split, seeing as donation caps for party committees are more than ten times greater than for campaigns.
  • DE-Sen: WTF? Can someone please explain to me why, of all people, Chris Van Hollen – the chair of the DCCC – is helping to fluff Republican Rep. Mike Castle’s bipartisan cred? CVH is co-sponsoring legislation with Castle which is aimed at “responding” to the Supreme Court’s Citizens United ruling. The merits of the issue aside, why on earth give a gift like this to Castle?
  • PA-Sen: The primary is just a month away – so Joe Sestak finally has to blow his cash hoard on a crunch-time push against Arlen Specter, right? PoliticsPA says that their sources are confirming Sestak will at last go on the air with TV ads today, but doesn’t have any details on the size or breadth of the buy.
  • MI-01: Dem state Sen. Mike Prusi, who had been weighing a bid to succeed retiring Rep. Bart Stupak, says he won’t run. There are still several Dems in the mix, though.
  • Chicago-Mayor: After denying it for quite some time, Rahm Emanuel finally admitted to Charlie Rose that he would like to be mayor of Chicago some day – but that he wouldn’t challenge his “dear friend” Richard Daley.
  • Polling: Nate Silver points up an interesting issue with Rasmussen’s “House Effect.” Rasmussen defenders often argue that the firm’s likely voter screen produces more-Republican results because conservatives are more fired up this cycle. The problem with that claim is that Rasmussen does release one set of numbers that cover all adults and are not screened in any way: their monthly partisan ID tracker. And on this measure, too, Ras is six points redder than average. Nate offers a few guesses as to why Ras leans this way even without any screening.
  • MA-Gov: Baker Nails Down GOP Nomination

    Western New England Coll. (4/11-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Deval Patrick (D-inc): 34

    Charlie Baker (R): 27

    Tim Cahill (I): 29

    Undecided: 10

    (MoE: ±4.5%)

    Charlie Baker, the former CEO of Harvard-Pilgrim Health Care, secured the GOP nomination at the state party’s convention over the weekend. Baker earned 89% of the delegates’ votes at the convention, pushing rival Christy Mihos below the rather low 15% bar for making it onto the ballot. Baker is something of the heir to the William Weld-style school of socially tolerant (down to the openly gay running mate, Richard Tisei), big-business-friendly, WASPy school of moderate Massachusetts Republicanism.

    Mihos, by contrast, is a quirkier outsider figure who had run as a sorta-moderate independent in 2006 but was courting the Tea Party crowd this year… which apparently didn’t work, as the GOP opted by a wide margin for electability (Mihos’s campaign has been awash in financial disarray and general confusion this year). I can’t quite ascertain whether Mihos would still be able to qualify by signature gathering, but it’s a moot point as Mihos pledged his support to Baker at the convention.

    The newest poll of the race, the first from WNEC, points to the tough road ahead of Baker, though. Like most pollsters, they find Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick in the 30s, no place an incumbent wants to be. However, they show that Baker and Dem-turned-conservative-indie Tim Cahill are splitting anti-Patrick votes down the middle, more or less canceling each other out and letting Patrick win. One of Baker or Cahill will need to collapse for the other to win. In the poll’s writeup’s words:

    Among voters who disapprove of the job that Patrick is doing, 45 percent said they would support Baker, and 40 percent said they would back Cahill. Among voters who said the state is on the wrong track, 39 percent said they would vote for Baker and 38 percent said they would support Cahill.

    FL-Sen: Crist Openly Mulling Indie Run

    Finally, he admits the obvious:

    Gov. Charlie Crist sat down with ABC Action News reporter Sarina Fazan Monday afternoon. When asked about whether or not he will run as an independent in the race for U.S. Senate, he said he has not made up his mind yet.

    “I can tell you I’m getting a lot of advice in that direction.  I’m a listener and so I’m certainly listening to it,” said Crist. […]

    In the past Crist has skirted questions about a possible independent run. But he now admits many around him are pushing for a party change.

    “I am certainly listening to people’s counsel and advice because I think that is the smart thing to do,” the Governor as I said earlier I want to do what the right thing is for the people first and I am looking at it through that lens I really am.

    Well, that’s not quite right — while Crist has been skirting the issue in the past few days, his camp previously laid down some very definitive statements affirming his commitment to running in the Republican primary. It now seems clear that Crist has one of two choices to make: fully embrace the indie route and be prepared to stand as a man alone, or duck out of politics altogether until the current age of insanity subsides.

    TX-Gov: Something Interesting Occurring in Texas and, No, It’s Not Secession

    Rasmussen Reports released polling for the Texas Governor’s race today. Surveying likely voters, they found incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Perry ahead 48% – 44% over former Houston Mayor Bill White.

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

    (Per Political Wire)

    White’s four point deficit is pretty spectacular when one considers Texas’ political leanings, the national environment, and the right leaning house of effect of the source, Rasmussen.

    The Texas Governor’s race could be a bright spot in what appears to be a disappointing cycle for Democrats.

    The race is even more important considering the upcoming redistricting fight. A win here would give Democrats at least some leverage in the process (if they fail to make the slim gains needed to take the Texas House of Representatives).

    If Mr. White were to take the governor’s mansion, I speculate it would have immediate implications on the 2016 Presidential Election.

    I believe that a White win would immediately make him a contender to succeed President Obama.

    First, the voters Bill White appeals to are the same as those that Mr. Obama brought into the fold. These voters tend to be college-educated and live within cities and (to a greater extent) suburbs across America.

    These are the voters in NOVA, in NC’s Research Triangle, in Omaha (yes, Omaha, the site of Mr. Obama’s lone Nebraska elector to the Electoral College), and even in Texas’ Harris, Travis and Fort Bend counties.

    Bill White won his first election as mayor in 2003 37% – 33% – 29% and defeated Republican Councilman Orlando Sanchez 63% – 37% in the runoff.

    His three terms as mayor of America’s fourth largest city were seen as wildly successful by most. He won his two subsequent elections with 91% and 86% respectively.

    During this time, he made his first appearance on the national stage after Hurricane Katrina decimated Louisiana and Mississippi. He welcomed thousands of refugees to Houston.

    Almost exactly a month later, he would help implement the largest evacuation in American history, an act that would make him the perfect foil to then-New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin.

    As a result of his actions during and after these two massive natural disasters, Mayor White was given the Profile in Courage Award and named Governing Magazine’s Public Official of the Year in 2007.

    Bill White has a great chance to pull off a stunning upset in the Lone Star State. The path to victory begins in the city he led for 6 years.

    If he can post substantial margins in Harris county (which President Obama barely won 51-49) and in Fort Bend county (which Sen. McCain won 51-49) and make a strong showing in Montgomery county (where Sen. McCain’s 83,012 vote margin was the largest in the state and, to my knowledge, the third largest in the country), you’re looking at the newest Governor of Texas.

    Of course, he will still need to turn out the large Hispanic vote across the state. He will also need to rack up big margins in Dallas county (Dallas), Bexar county (San Antonio), El Paso county (El Paso) and Travis county (Austin).

    If White can do this, which definitely will not be a cake walk, I speculate he will instantly be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for the President in 2016 (if he runs).

    As a former resident of Montgomery county, I can see him doing well in some of the more Republican friendly areas there and elsewhere.

    All the rancorous, incomprehensible talk out of the current governor doesn’t play as well in wealthier suburbs. Yes, rural former dixiecrats and Palinites alike will eat it up, but I do not see those Kay Bailey Hutchison backers in Tarrant, Montgomery, Fort Bend, and Denton counties.

    Bill White needs these voters. They are the stereotypical Texas Republicans of the 1950s. They are oilmen, soccer moms, college-educated and suburbanites. They are also overwhelmingly white.

    This is not to discount the millions of young and minority voters who turned out for then-Sen. Obama in 2008. They are an integral part of the Democratic coalition. These voters are also extremely important in Texas and to White’s campaign; however, they are not enough to win this year.

    In 2020, that may be a completely different story, but this year, Mayor White will need white, Republican suburbanites. He won’t need all, he won’t even need most.

    But this year, Bill White will need a strong showing among them, at least for a Democrat, and anecdotal evidence out of Fort Bend and Montgomery counties tells me he has a pretty good shot.

    Wouldn’t it be sweet, delicious irony that the man who (hopefully) defeats secessionist, Tea Bagger Rick Perry go on to be the Democratic successor to President Obama?

    SSP Daily Digest: 4/19

    FL-Sen: That bell is tolling pretty loudly for Charlie Crist right about now, although it’s unclear today whether it spells a switch to an independent Senate bid (keep your fingers crossed) or an exit (if only temporarily) from politics. Crist’s camp has pulled all of its GOP-primary-related ads from Florida television. Florida junior Senator/Crist errand boy George LeMieux is downplaying this, saying no switch is imminent, but the NRSC is leaning on Crist even more heavily than before, trying to disabuse their endorsee of the idea of an indie bid.

    IN-Sen: I wonder if this will boost John Hostettler with his fundraising by hooking him up with a national base, or if he’s going to be more Peter Schiff than Rand Paul in the end? The former Rep., in his run for the GOP nomination in Indiana, now has the endorsement of Rep. Ron Paul, bringing together two of the very few GOPers to vote against the Iraq War. Meanwhile, state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, the dark-horse third-wheel in the GOP derby, is hitting the TV airwaves with an introductory ad, banking much of his small warchest on getting his name rec out of the basement with the primary only weeks away.

    KS-Sen: Rep. Mike Pence weighed in on the GOP field in Kansas, endorsing Rep. Todd Tiahrt over fellow Rep. Jerry Moran. There’s something of a social/fiscal conservative split on this race, where social conservatives love Tiahrt but fiscal hawks don’t, based on his long career on the goodie-doling Appropriations Committee. If nothing else, it’s interesting to see Pence, who tries to have a foot in each camp, choose sides, as he gears up for a possible presidential bid. Meanwhile, Moran is going up with his first TV spot, with a big buy in the Kansas City market.

    KY-Sen: More tasty cat fud in Kentucky, where Rudy Giuliani just endorsed Trey Grayson and, in doing so, slammed the bejesus out of Rand Paul on the 9/11 front, saying that Grayson “is not part of the ‘blame America first’ crowd that wants to bestow the rights of U.S. citizens on terrorists and point fingers at America for somehow causing 9/11.” Just the kind of softening-up of Paul we need for the general election.

    NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Siena’s latest poll of the Empire State doesn’t contain any big surprises; even David Paterson’s 17/83 job rating isn’t that surprising anymore. In their first look at the post-George Pataki Senate landscape, they find that Kirsten Gillibrand is cruising against all of her seemingly interchangeable third-tier opposition; she beats Joe DioGuardi 46-27, Bruce Blakeman 46-26, and David Malpass 46-24. DioGuardi, apparently with the name rec that comes with a celebrity daughter (or maybe it’s from the two terms in Congress in the 1980s), has the edge in a Pataki-free GOP primary, winning with 24 to 7 for Blakeman and 5 for Malpass. On the gubernatorial side, Andrew Cuomo fares even better than Gillibrand, beating Rick Lazio 61-24, Steve Levy 58-23, and Carl Paladino 64-19. Lazio still has the edge in the GOP primary, at 29 with 15 for Levy and 13 for Paladino.

    WA-Sen: Strange that it takes a foul-mouthed blogger to notice the clues that Dino Rossi isn’t running that the Beltway press seems oblivious to. Goldy notices that minor candidate Chris Widener, another personal friend of Rossi, is saying the same thing as state Sen. Don Benton: if he’s running, why the hell isn’t he doing me the favor of calling me up and telling me to get out of the way? (Well, maybe because he’s a jerk?) Even more telling is that another minor GOP candidate, former NFL player Clint Didier, has commercial real estate mogul Kemper Freeman (one of Rossi’s big-name donors and a major insider player in the state GOP), as his campaign chair.

    FL-Gov: I’m wondering if Bill McCollum’s lead role in the pursuit of the GOP AGs’ lawsuit over HCR is suddenly taking a toll on him (voters are opposed to the suit by a 54-40 margin), or if Quinnipiac got an unusually Dem-friendly sample (it’s the same one that found Kendrick Meek with 4 of Marco Rubio in a head-to-head, and Obama gets a 48/46 approval). Either way, Quinnipiac has the nicest numbers we’ve seen out of the Florida gubernatorial race in a while. McCollum leads Democratic state CFO Alex Sink by just 40-36. McCollum leads state Sen. Paula Dockery 56-7 in the GOP primary; Sink leads Dockery 37-28.

    MD-Gov: Usually when a heavyweight jumps into the field, the random odds and ends get out, but the opposite happened in Maryland. Shortly after Bob Ehrlich got in, little-known rich guy Brian Murphy just announced his candidacy today. Murphy will be running against Ehrlich from the right and has the support of former state GOP chair James Pelura. Murphy also got a vote of confidence from former state Del. Carmen Amedori, who dropped her long-shot bid against Barbara Mikulski to sign on as Murphy’s Lt. Governor running mate.

    CA-36: At the state convention, incumbent Rep. Jane Harman managed to ward off Marci Winograd’s attempts to deny Harman the state party’s endorsement. After a floor fight, Harman won the endorsement with a 599-417 vote. The two will still face off in the Democratic primary (in a rematch of 2006).

    GA-09: Here’s a problem for Georgia Dems: they lost their only candidate in the 9th, pastor Mike Freeman. His name will still remain on the ballot for the May 11 special election to replace Nathan Deal, but he leaves behind a hole for the general election. Not that the absence of a Dem in this R+28 district would be noticed much, though.

    MA-09: Rep. Stephen Lynch has dodged a primary challenge so far, following his vote against HCR, but it seems like organized labor has found a candidacy that might stick. Mac d’Alessandro, a regional director for the SEIU, says he’ll take a shot at Lynch in the Democratic primary, although he has only a couple weeks to round up the necessary 2,000 signatures.

    MN-01: The Republicans had their endorsement convention for the 1st District and gave their nod to state Rep. Randy Demmer. While Demmer is hardly anyone’s idea of a moderate, he’s less polarizing than his main rival, former state Rep. Allen Quist (a Michele Bachmann ally). Quist sounds like he’ll honor the endorsement and not run in the primary.

    MN-02: On the Dem side, though, former state Rep. Shelley Madore has decided to keep running in the primary even though the DFL endorsement went to Dan Powers.

    NH-01: In a surprise to almost no one, Sean Mahoney (who made a big show of quitting his committee position on the RNC recently, ostensibly to protest Michael Steele) announced that he’s going to run in the GOP primary in the 1st for the right to take on Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. The primary that looked like a victory lap for former Manchester mayor Frank Guinta last year is now a four-way bar brawl instead.

    NY-24: Rep. Mike Arcuri is, all of a sudden, sounding kind of Stupak-ish in the wake of his getting bruised by all ends of the spectrum after his ill-advised ‘yes’ to ‘no’ switch on HCR; he won’t commit to running for re-election just yet. Either he’s particularly thin-skinned and vindictive about getting his widdle feewings hurt, or he’s looking at some particularly unappetizing polling numbers, especially if the Working Families Party runs someone against him.

    Assessing the National Mood: A Special Election in Florida and its Implications

    By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

    Believe it or not, Tuesday was election night. Several million Americans voted (or more accurately, did not vote) in mostly local races.

    These results provide a helpful snapshot of the national mood. Polls may be inaccurate, or – more commonly – different pollsters may have different pictures of the public mood. Unlike polls, elections have that useful tendency of never being wrong.

    Special elections for congressional districts are especially convenient, because there is already a wealth of accumulated data about them. Moreover, because name recognition of both candidates is generally very low, they come as close as one can get to “generic Democrat versus generic Republican.”

    Quite happily, a special election occurred on Tuesday in one such congressional district. Specifically, voters in Florida’s 19th congressional district went about replacing retired House Representative Robert Wexler. Here are the results:

    Photobucket

    More below.

    Of course Democrats do not and have – almost – never have enjoyed a majority anything close to that pictured here. These results must be placed in the context of the congressional district’s political lean. If, for instance, FL-19 constituted a Democratic stronghold, this result would be fairly unremarkable. It might even be quite worrisome for Democrats, depending on the district’s Democratic lean (there are some very, very, very Democratic congressional districts out there). On the other hand, if FL-19 usually voted Republican, Democrats would have some reason to celebrate a victory of this magnitude.

    As it turns out, FL-19 constitutes a reliable Democratic stronghold. Located in the Miami metropolis, elderly and Jewish voters compose much of the district’s population. The latter accounts for Democratic strength, making Florida’s 19th 15% more Democratic than the nation as a whole.

    With this in mind, last night’s election results do not look so impressive for Democrats. In fact, it appears that the party underperformed relative to the district’s lean.

    But this is not news at all – in recent months the public mood has shifted quite strongly against the Democratic Party. Almost the entire Beltway agrees that Democrats will lose seats in November’s midterm elections; the only question is the degree of their loss. Republicans are hoping for a repeat 1994-type landslide; Democrats would be happy to retain control of the House.

    Due to the unfavorable public mood, Democrats have had a terrible batting average in the most recent special elections; they most famously lost the state of Massachusetts to an unknown Republican State Senator:

    Photobucket

    In this context, Florida’s result looks positively respectable. The Democratic Party can take heart in the relatively small drop-off since 2008 – especially compared to their previous performances. Given that President Barack Obama won the election by more than 4.65%, it even suggests that Democrats hold a slight lead on the national level.

    Indeed, in recent weeks Democratic fortunes have been on the rise. The passage of health care, alongside a slowly but surely improving economy, has led to an ever-so-slight uptick in their polling. Florida’s result substantiates these polls.

    Finally, the very nature of FL-19 can lead Democrats to be optimistic. Mr. Obama’s strongest supporters, young and minority voters, are not present in large numbers in FL-19. Instead, this district – whiter and much more elderly than the nation at large – is composed of the very groups which have been moving away from the Democratic Party. Although it still votes strongly Democratic, Fl-19 is not as blue as it once was:

    Photobucket

    That Democrats performed as well as they did in a district such as this provides further reason for Democratic optimism. Elderly and white voters have not all abandoned the party; it still can do well with constituencies outside the Obama coalition.

    The national mood is still fairly unfavorable towards the Democratic Party; certainly the public is more antagonistic than it was when electing Mr. Obama. If an election were held today, there is a good chance Republicans would end up controlling at least one chamber of Congress. But perhaps, if these results are to be believed, the Democrats are climbing out of the hole the recession has dug for them.

    FL-GOV: Race Tightens, Sink Launches New Salvo

    According to the latest Quinnipiac poll the Florida Gubernatorial race, which had seemed to be slipping away, is now narrowing as CFO Alex Sink is now with four points of Attorney General Bill McCollum, who leads 40-36.

    One of the first things to take away from the poll is that McCollum’s right-wing pandering leading the charge to overturn the HCR Bill has hurt him in the general, with 38% saying it makes them less likely to support his bid, and 54% of voters saying he should not be suing to try to repeal the bill.

    Independent voters especially have panned the move:

    The Quinnipiac University poll released Monday found 41 percent of independent voters said the challenge would make them less likely to vote for McCollum, compared with 27 percent who said they were more likely to vote for him.

    http://www.google.com/hostedne…

    Meanwhile Sink continues to tout her Economic Plan, attempting to woo moderates:

    “I’m going to bring my business career to Tallahassee,” said Sink, former president of Bank of America Florida. “That is our future.”

     

    http://www.tampabay.com/news/p…

    I can’t tell yet if Sink is going to quit going at McCollum with kiddie gloves and running a Craig Deeds-esque campaign or if she is going to start slamming him for his right-wingery and presenting herself as a true viable alternative for ordinary voters while also shoring up support from progressives by campaigning on Democratic principles, a crucial two-prong campaign she has to run to win statewide: get the independent vote, and get the progressive Demographics to show up. Kendrick Meek running should definitely help her by driving turnout among black voters.

    I hope to hear in the near future about her launching a new campaign direction and taking on a new tone. This polls gives new hope, and if she can start running a stronger campaign we have a strong chance to pick up this crucial gubernatorial race, with the teacher pay fiasco also blowing up in the face of Florida conservatives, invoking the wrath of teachers and education groups across the state. Sink is well positioned to tap that as well.

    IA-02, IA-03: NRCC votes for Gettemy and Gibbons

    The National Republican Campaign Committee announced more moves in its “Young Guns” program today. Two of the districts affected are in Iowa.

    The NRCC added Rob Gettemy to its list of “on the radar” candidates. Gettemy is one of four Republicans running against Dave Loebsack in Iowa’s second Congressional district.

    “The NRCC is committed to working with Rob Gettemy as he continues to meet the rigorous goals of the Young Guns program,” said NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions. “Rob is an accomplished, independent leader who will fight to create jobs and rein in government spending. I am confident that Republicans will wage a strong fight against Dave Loebsack, a loyal Democrat who has repeatedly put his partisan agenda before a healthy economy.”

    They’ll have to do more than that to convince me that this D+7 district will be competitive in the fall. The real reason for putting Gettemy “on the radar” is to signal to Republican donors that he’s the guy to support in this race. It’s a slap in the face to 2008 nominee Mariannette Miller-Meeks, not to mention the other two Republicans running in IA-02 (Steve Rathje and Chris Reed). Gettemy joined the race last but has the most cash on hand thanks to a $100,000 loan he made to his own campaign.

    If no candidate wins 35 percent in the June 8 primary, NRCC support could help Gettemy at the district convention that would decide the Republican nominee. Gettemy already has backing from many prominent Republicans in Linn County (Cedar Rapids and its suburbs).

    In the NRCC’s three-tiered system for candidates in supposedly competitive races, the next step up from “on the radar” is “contender.” Jim Gibbons’ campaign announced today that the NRCC has elevated him to that level. Gibbons became an “on the radar” candidate in February. If Gibbons can meet certain benchmarks, the NRCC may later elevate him to the top “Young Gun” level, for candidates deemed to have the best chances of winning Democratic-held House seats.

    Getting a pat on the back from the NRCC will help Gibbons raise money, particularly from out-of-district donors who don’t know the political terrain in Iowa’s third district (D+1). Gibbons outraised the other Republican candidates in IA-03 by a substantial margin in the first quarter, and being a “contender” will probably help him extend that financial advantage in the second quarter. The Gibbons campaign press release is not subtle:

    By achieving ‘Contender’ status, Gibbons has already proven his ability to build a successful campaign structure and achieve vital fundraising goals.

    Gibbons added, “This recognition shows that our campaign is ready to take down Leonard Boswell in the fall.  I am the only candidate in this race that has shown the financial heft and organization structure to compete and win in November.  I am running for Congress to bring Iowa values back to Congress,” said Jim Gibbons.

    I have to laugh to see Gibbons bragging about support from Washington party leaders a week after he tried to attack incumbent Leonard Boswell for getting help from the head of the DCCC. From where I’m sitting, Gibbons does not look ready for prime time.

    Many people on the ground in IA-03 expect State Senator Brad Zaun to win the Republican nomination. Zaun appears to have an early advantage in name recognition as well as a base in vote-rich Urbandale (a Des Moines suburb). On the other hand, Zaun has raised only a little more than $80,000 for his Congressional campaign, about $50,000 of that in the first quarter. It may not be enough for strong district-wide advertising and direct mail before the June 8 primary. A majority of Republican voters haven’t yet decided on a candidate, according to a recent poll commissioned by Zaun’s campaign.

    If no candidate wins 35 percent in the primary, Zaun could be well-positioned to win the nomination at a district convention, having much more background in Republican politics. But Gibbons could point to the NRCC’s backing as an argument in his favor. Party leaders in Washington are less likely to commit resources to this district if Zaun is the candidate.

    A final word on Zaun’s meager fundraising. His defenders claim that his fundraising has lagged because he was tied up in the state legislature from January through March. I’m not buying it. Zaun announced his candidacy against Boswell in early December, more than a month before the 2010 legislative session began. If Rod Roberts could raise more than $50,000 in the kickoff event for his gubernatorial campaign, Zaun should have been able to raise much more at his kickoff event in late December (before the legislative session began). Zaun is a former mayor of Urbandale, a community with much more wealth and more Republicans than the Carroll area Roberts has represented in the Iowa House. Zaun should have a large pool of major donors to tap.

    Share any thoughts about Congressional races in Iowa in this thread.

    AR-Sen: Little Change in Arkansas

    Research 2000 for Daily Kos (4/12-14, likely voters, 3/22-24 in parentheses):

    Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 45 (44)

    Bill Halter (D): 33 (31)

    Other: 6 (0)

    Undecided: 16 (25)

    (MoE: ±5%)

    Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (42)

    John Boozman (R): 50 (49)

    Undecided: 7 (9)

    Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41 (41)

    Gilbert Baker (R): 48 (49)

    Undecided: 11 (10)

    Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 42 (43)

    Kim Hendren (R): 49 (48)

    Undecided: 9 (9)

    Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 43 (44)

    Curtis Coleman (R): 46 (47)

    Undecided: 11 (9)

    Bill Halter (D): 41 (40)

    John Boozman (R): 48 (48)

    Undecided: 11 (12)

    Bill Halter (D): 43 (44)

    Gilbert Baker (R): 45 (46)

    Undecided: 12 (10)

    Bill Halter (D): 43 (44)

    Kim Hendren (R): 46 (45)

    Undecided: 11 (11)

    Bill Halter (D): 44 (45)

    Curtis Coleman (R): 43 (44)

    Undecided: 13 (11)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    There’s hardly any change here in the topline numbers from the R2K poll of Arkansas released last Friday, either in the primary, or especially in the general. (There were also Tom Cox matchups; I’m leaving them out, as he’s dropped out.) Undecideds are dropping in the primary, but the real gainer here is “other,” probably in the form of previously unknown conservadem D.C. Morrison.

    The numbers to note in this poll are the approvals: Blanche Lincoln’s problem is that everyone has an opinion of her, and the majority of that is negative: 43/53. Bill Halter, by contrast, is at 47/30. 23% still haven’t formed an opinion of him, giving him room to grow. Lincoln, by contrast, has hit her ceiling and is upside down — not the conditions that get you re-elected.

    My Story (FL) (Video)

    Thanks for allowing me the opportunity to speak to your community.  

    I’m traveling all across the state getting to know Floridians and telling them about my story.  I can’t talk to everyone personally, though, and since I’m running for U.S. Senate Americans outside of Florida may be interested in who I am as well, since the important work of the U.S. Senate affects all Americans.  

    Our campaign produced this video to help introduce people to me, my background and where I come from.  

    http://www.kendrickmeek.com/page/s/video

    We know this is a competitive election, but we have a real chance to bring progressive change to Florida and Washington, D.C. and we need your help getting the word out.  

    You’ve heard a lot about my opponents and you’ll hear a lot more about them as they continue to fight a divisive primary over ideology and partisanship.  I’d rather spend my time working hard and fighting to bring jobs to Florida, help our economy recover and continue to pursue the progressive platform of the Democratic Party.

    P.S. Not on our mobile list yet? Make sure to sign up today by texting JOIN to 35736. Text messages are a great way to stay updated – no matter where you are – with everything happening on the campaign!

    Kendrick

    Originally posted at kendrickmeek.com