Month: September 2010

Opinion Research Corp. for CNN/Time (pdf) (9/2-7, registered voters, no trendlines):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 48

Carly Fiorina (R): 44

Undecided: 3

Jerry Brown (D): 46

Meg Whitman (R): 48

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Yesterday’s onslaught of CNN/Time polls has a California component, and it’s a split verdict: Barbara Boxer is squeaking by in the Senate race, while Jerry Brown is behind Meg Whitman by a small margin. While it’s tempting to say “oh, those Senate numbers are pretty good,” as with the other CNN polls, bear in mind that this is a registered voter poll. While it’s not clear how much of an enthusiasm gap we’re looking at in California compared with other states, it’s reasonable to expect that an LV screen would yield results at least a few points worse.

If you’re looking for interesting numbers from the crosstabs, what’s keeping Carly Fiorina in this is how well she’s doing with women: Boxer leads among women only 48-43. (OK, maybe it’s not that amazing, considering that Fiorina is also a woman, which is probably why the NRSC thought she’d be a good matchup in the first place.) What’s keeping Jerry Brown in this, even more counterintuitively, is how well he’s doing with people over 50: he actually leads among oldsters, 49-47, while trailing among the under-50s 48-45. (So maybe that “remember the 70s, when things didn’t suck so much?” advertising scheme makes sense in that context.)

SurveyUSA for KABC-TV (8/31-9/1, likely voters, 8/9-11 in parentheses):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (42)

Carly Fiorina (R): 48 (47)

Undecided: 1 (11)

Jerry Brown (D): 40 (43)

Meg Whitman (R): 47 (44)

Undecided: 4 (13)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Then there’s SurveyUSA’s poll from over the weekend; SurveyUSA has given Fiorina the lead in its last three polls and (with the exception of the most recent Rasmussen) is the only pollster to give her a lead. Assuming that these pollsters are polling essentially similar populations (and that’s a pretty big assumption), one might infer that the enthusiasm gap between RVs and LVs is worth about 5-6 points in California.

SurveyUSA has some better news down the ballot, although these two races also seem to have gotten closer than previous polls: Gavin Newsom leads the Lt. Governor race over Abel Maldonado, 44-39, while Proposition 19 (for the legalization and regulation of marijuana) is passing, 47-43.

AK-Sen: The NRSC is coughing up money for Joe Miller; they just cut him a $42,600 check and say they’ll be spending $170,000 in coordinated expenditures on his behalf, which CQ reports represents “the maximum allowed under the law”. I’m not sure how that’s possible, though, as the FEC has a $87,000 limit on coordinated party expenditures for Senate races in Alaska. What I do know is that Democrat Scott McAdams is already making the GOP sweat (although, Joe Miller’s balls-out insanity may have a little something to do with that). You see that thermometer on the top right corner of this page? You know what you have to do.

FL-Sen: Libertarian Alex Snitker has popped up to remind the world that he’s actually in this race… by announcing that he won’t be dropping out of the race, despite pressure in the form of “numerous e-mails and Facebook messages” from Republicans urging him to get out of Marco Rubio’s way.

NC-Sen: Normally, I’d bunch this bullet down in the ad section, but Richard Burr’s latest spot deserves some special attention. The ad, entitled “Front Porch”, resurrects the highly-acclaimed “rocking chair” actors employed by the DSCC in their extremely effective ads against Elizabeth Dole in 2008. Only this time, they’re singing Richard Burr’s praises and railing against the national debt. At least, I think those are the same actors; if not, they’re dead ringers for the originals. (To see what I mean, click here.) I’ve gotta say – pretty damned clever move on Burr’s part.

WA-Sen: The DSCC has reserved $2 million worth of ad time to help protect Patty Murray against Dino Rossi. The DSCC’s ads will begin on October 5th.

CO-Gov: Democrat John Hickenlooper doubled up on American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo in August fundraising, bringing in just over $400K to Tancredo’s $200K. Tancredo, in turn, quadrupled up on Republican flag-bearer Dan Maes, who raised $50K, nearly half of which was spent on legal fees and campaign finance penalties. Meanwhile, downballot Republicans are doing their best to rally around Tancredo, the only guy with the money and semblance of cred to run a real campaign. More than 20 elected GOPers in Colorado came out in support of Tanc. RGA chair Haley Barbour sounds about ready to throw in the towel, though.

AZ-01, AZ-05: Here’s a pair of fresh GOP internal polls from Arizona for your consumption: In AZ-01, rogue dentist Paul Gosar is tied with Dem Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick at 43-43 in a Moore Information poll conducted at the end of August. In AZ-05, National Research, Inc. has David Schweikert up on Dem Harry Mitchell by 46-38.

FL-02: Blue Dog Allen Boyd rolled out the endorsement of the Chamber of Commerce yesterday.

KS-04: By all indications, Republicans are set to have a very good year at the polls, but they would be foolish to consider a race like the open seat battle to replace Todd Tiahrt in the bag. Not only has Democratic state Rep. Raj Goyle been fundraising strongly and polling competitively in this GOP-friendly district against dickbag Republican Mike Pompeo, it looks like there’s a very real chance that there could be some serious vote-splitting on the right. Mega-wealthy businessman Wink Hartman, who lost to Pompeo in the Republican primary, is interested in running as a Libertarian, and Kansas Libertarian Party Chairman Andrew Gray said the chances of that happening are “very favorable”. Hartman, who spent over $1.5 million on Republican campaign, had a phone interview with the Libertarians on Tuesday, and they apparently loved what they had to hear. Hartman would be taking the place of David Moffett on the Libertarian ballot, who pulled his name last week after citing personal health reasons. Republicans, of course, are crying foul, but the KS SoS has already denied one objection to the withdrawal.

D-bags: Add NRCC tool Andy Sere to the list. Just click the link.

SSP TV:

DE-Sen: Chris Coons is out with his first ad, a spot touting his record as New Castle County Executive. NWOTSOTB, but it’s a statewide cable buy that the campaign decided to roll out earlier than planned in order to take advantage of the cat fud fight between Christine O’Donnell and Mike Castle.

AR-01: Chad Causey’s first ad of the general election is a spot that’s mostly biographical, but one that ends with a left hook on Republican Rick Crawford for his support for the bad kind of SSP.

AZ-08: Gabrielle Giffords is out with a solid hit on tea-flavored douchebag Jesse Kelly, hitting him with his own words on his plan to “privatize” and “phase out” Social Security, which, along with Medicare, are apparently the “biggest Ponzi schemes in history”. Hey, Jesse: thank you for being a moron.

CA-45: Mary Bono Mack’s first ad touts her efforts to support the “magic” of the doctor-patient relationship. Or something.

IL-11: Republican Adam Kinzinger is up with his first ad, an autobiographical piece which touts his Air Force service and his intervention in a knife attack on a woman back home.

IL-17: Phil Hare is out with his first ad in four years, hitting Republican Bobby Schilling on his support of “a bad trade deal with Korea”.

IN-02: GOPer Jackie Walorski has the right issue (the economy), but the wrong remedy (trickle down nonsense).

IN-08: Republican Larry Buschon’s first spot hits Democrats on, you guessed it, spending – and also on the curious notion that food grows in grocery stores.

MD-01: Frank Kratovil Reads The Bills. (The ad will run “on broadcast stations in the Baltimore and Salisbury markets”.)

MI-09: Gary Peters flips the bird to Wall Street.

NE-02: Dem Tom White hits Lee Terry on the national debt, citing his vote for TARP.

NJ-12: Rush Holt’s first ad is half-negative, hitting hedge fund kingpin Scott Sipprelle for his supply-side economics, and half-positive, touting Holt’s support of the middle class.

TN-08: Dem Roy Herron comes out against drug dealers, predatory lenders, and Wall Street. This one seems like it could use more of an emotional punch, though.

SSP IE Tracker:

Longtime fans of SSP will remember the House Independent Expenditure tracker that we updated on a regular basis two years ago. As much as I’d like to resurrect that project this year, the time constraints of law school prevent me from investing that kind of time. However, we’ll still try to keep you in the loop on noteworthy independent expenditure reports here in the Daily Digest.

NH-Sen: CULAC the PAC files a $66K radio ad buy on behalf of conservative Republican Ovide Lamontagne

IN-02: The NRCC files $95K in ads and polls against Joe Donnelly

MA-09: The SEIU is spending $190K on phonebanks and radio ads in support of Mac D’Alessandro in his primary fight against Stephen Lynch

MI-01: The DCCC buys $48K in ads against Dan Benishek

WI-07: The DCCC has re-upped their ad buy against Sean Duffy by another $50K.

Opinion Research Corp. for CNN/Time (pdf) (9/2-7, registered voters, no trendlines):

Jack Conway (D): 46

Rand Paul (R): 46

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Hooray! The citizens of Kentucky have finally seen through Rand Paul’s attempts to put a conventional Republican gloss on his oddball libertarianism! All the momentum is with Jack Conway! Oh, wait… what’s that? It’s a poll of registered voters at this late date? Taking into mind how much PPP’s numbers have fallen off since the switch from a more-or-less RV model to a pure likely voter model, that should mean… aw, crap.

SurveyUSA for WHAS-TV and Louisville Courier-Journal (8/30-9/1, likely voters, 7/27-29 in parentheses):

Jack Conway (D): 40 (43)

Rand Paul (R): 55 (51)

Undecided: 5 (5)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Oh, no! The bottom’s fallen out for Jack Conway in the last month! Wait… what’s that? The self-identified 47% Dem, 42% GOP, 10% Other breakdown of this poll is totally out of whack with Kentucky’s historic voting patterns? (Dems have always had at least a 25% registration advantage over GOPers, and recalculation to reflect that traditional breakdown points to a 51-44 margin, according to analysis by Pete Brodnitz, of Conway pollster the Benenson Group.) Hmmm, guess we’d better get down from that ledge.

Well, how about a tie-breaker, then? On behalf of somebody called the Kentucky Leadership Council, Democratic pollster John Anzalone (I’m not sure if this is just imprecision on The Fix’s part, or if he’s operating truly outside of Anzalone-Liszt) is out with a poll that gives Rand Paul a 48-45 lead over Jack Conway. However… one other thing missing from the writeup of this poll is whether or not it’s freakin’ registered voters or likely voters! Aaaghghgh! [begins pounding head on desk] (Update: The polling memo gives us answers to two questions – it was by ALR, and its sample was of likely voters.)

Oh, by the way, at least we can be certain about one thing: how much money Jack Conway raised with his one-day moneybomb event yesterday. He set a $260K goal and went well past it, raising “more than” $300K (although it sounds like at least $45K of that was lined up ahead of schedule). As for Paul, he’s up with his first TV ad of the general, highlighting his time as a physician, rather messianically titled “Gift of Sight.” (No mention of his breaking with Big Ophthalmology to start his own renegade certification scheme, though.) No offical WOTSOTB, but estimates are of $250K.

Public Policy Polling (9/2-6, likely voters, no trend lines):

Libby Mitchell (D): 29

Paul LePage (R): 43

Eliot Cutler (I): 11

Shawn Moody (I): 5

Kevin Scott (I): 1

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Good grief:

The thing drivings the GOP poll advantage in Maine are the same we’re seeing everywhere: a unified Republican base, a lack of interest from Democratic voters, a strong GOP lean with independents, and the specter of an unpopular Democratic President and Governor hanging over the heads of the party’s candidates.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before:

The same depressed Democratic interest that helped sink the party in the Massachusetts Senate election, as well as last fall’s races for Governor in New Jersey and Virginia, is showing itself in Maine. We find those likely to vote in the state supported Barack Obama by a 7 point margin in 2008, in contrast to his actual 17 point victory there. That enthusiasm gap contributes a lot to the margin of LePage’s lead but make no mistake- with him winning 76% of McCain voters and Mitchell at only 52% with Obama’s he’d be in the lead even if the electorate looked the same as in 2008.

UPDATE: The DGA is up with a TV spot hitting LePage on his environmental protection policies (or lack thereof).

Public Policy Polling (9/2-6, likely voters, 6/19-21 in parens):

Bill White (D): 42 (43)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 48 (43)

Undecided: 12 (14)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

PPP’s switch from a registered to a likely voter model gives Rick Perry a six-point lead. Interestingly, that switch only translated into a 52-41 McCain sample from a 51-41 sample in June. However, the sample is significantly more Republican (47R-30D from 43R-37D in June) and whiter (70% from 66%).

Despite Perry’s edge, Tom Jensen calls White, along with Colorado’s John Hickenlooper, “one of the two strongest new Democratic candidates in the country this year”. That’s evidenced by White’s promising 44-29 favorable rating, especially when stacked up against Perry’s 36-49 approval rating. More:

The race is confounding the major trends we’re seeing in most contests across the country. White is winning independents 53-34. Republicans have the lead with them most everywhere else. White’s winning 82% of Democrats while Perry’s getting 77% of Republicans. Republican voters are more unified than Democrats most everywhere else. But there are a lot more GOP voters than Dems in Texas so Perry’s still ahead anyway.

PPP also tested the Lt. Governor’s race, and finds incumbent David Dewhurst up by 54-34 on his spirited Democratic challenger, Linda Chavez-Thompson. That Bill White is poling competitively while the lower-ticketed races look like Solid R affairs is both a testament to White’s strength – and Perry’s weakness.

Meanwhile, PPP’s Dustin Ingalls takes a look at an issue that may have some resonance in Texas this year (much as it did in 1994): term limits.

• AK-Sen: It seems like Lisa Murkowski’s meetings with the Libertarian Party didn’t lead to anything conclusive (while David Haase sounded amenable, the state party sounds opposed), as the signals she’s putting out now seem to point more toward a write-in campaign, if anything. According to Roll Call, she’s “strongly considering it” and will have an announcement as early as tomorrow. In case you’re wondering about TX-22-style hilarity ensuing, the Alaska Division of Elections confirms that a voter can spell her name incorrectly and still have the vote count, which makes the prospect of a write-in campaign for Linda Mukrosky somewhat more doable.

• CO-Sen: Ken Buck may have dirty boots, but he’s been busy scrubbing his website sparkly clean. The Michael Bennet camp has been observing lots of minor changes to Buck’s website to make it more mainstream-y, with softer-sounding rewrites on his issues page on Afghanistan, stem cell research, and immigration.

• DE-Sen: In another sign that the GOP primary between Mike Castle and Christine O’Donnell isn’t dialing down, both Castle and the Tea Party Express (on behalf of O’Donnell) are both extending their previous ad buys, starting today and running through next Tuesday’s election. Again, kudos to Hotline’s Jeremy Jacobs, who knows not only the Size Of The Buy but the complete breakdown (Castle, for instance, spent $75K in the Salisbury broadcast market, $27K on statewide cable, and $43K on radio, while the TPX spent $32K on cable only). He also susses out that at the current trajectory, the TPX will reach only slightly past the halfway point on its promise to spend $250K on O’Donnell, unless they want to blow a lot of money at the last minute in the pricey Philadelphia market. Meanwhile, TPM checks out how TPX’s ongoing moneybomb for O’Donnell has been going, who has raised $89K since TPX got involved. Despite O’Donnell’s frequent attacks on Castle’s use of out-of-state money to power his campaign, they highlighted their $250+ donors, and a grand total of one (of 56) was a Delawarean.

• FL-Sen, FL-25: Biden alert! With Kendrick Meek having raised some bucks at a New York appearance with Bill Clinton last night, now he turns his attention to an upcoming fundraiser with the VPOTUS. (Expect to see the usual GOP carping about “Big Hollywood,” seeing as how the fundraiser is in Hollywood. Hollywood, Florida, that is.) 25th District candidate Joe Garcia will also be a beneficiary.

• PA-Sen: The Philadelphia Inquirer has a rundown of Pat Toomey’s past history of earmarks, in of course blatant contradiction with the pledges of austerity that define his current campaign… yet another Republican example of government largesse for me, but not for thee. In his first term in PA-15, Toomey won $9 million in earmarks, including $3 million for one company (Air Products & Chemicals) that then became his single biggest campaign contributor.

• CA-Gov: Steve Poizner seems to have finally gotten the message, if a few months on the late (and tepid) side. The Republican primary loser gave his endorsement to Meg Whitman yesterday… via press release.

• MI-Gov: Local pollster Mitchell Research is out with what appears to be their first poll of the general election in the Michigan gubernatorial race; like most pollsters, they find Republican Rick Snyder with a solid lead. He’s ahead of Democrat Virg Bernero 53-26.

• OH-Gov: Bill Clinton will be in Ohio on behalf of (Hillary endorser) Ted Strickland on the 14th, also the day of his first debate with John Kasich. Clinton will stump for Strickland in both Cleveland and Columbus.

• NC-08: With the DCCC having rolled out a GQR internal poll yesterday giving Larry Kissell a decent lead (48-36) in the 8th (on top of Kissell releasing his own internal in late August with a 49-32 lead), GOP rival Harold Johnson offered up his own poll today to show he’s still in this thing. His poll from POS finds Kissell still leading, but by a more surmountable margin: 39-34.

• NV-03: Politico has details on EMILY’s List weighing into the 3rd, with a two-week TV ad blitz going after Joe Heck on women’s health issues (like his vote against mandated insurance coverage for the HPV vaccine). While the article doesn’t have a link to the ad, let alone the Size Of The Buy, it does have a very interesting look at the advanced micro-targeting they’re using, focusing on very specific TV shows as well as Hulu and Facebook users.

• OH-16: Someone get Jim Renacci a high school history textbook, stat! When asked at the candidates’ first debate what he’d like to do about civil rights, the Republican challenger to John Boccieri retreated to Rand Paul-style teabagger boilerplate, saying “We need to get our federal government out of the way,” and that it was better dealt with as “local issues.” Yeah, because local and state governments in the 50s and 60s were the paragons of tolerance and virtue during the civil rights movement, and that federal government just came in and screwed everything up…

• DGA: If you’ve been wondering what they’re up to at the DGA, they’re out with a strategy memo that outlines the next few months. Wisely, they’re most concerned with the states with the greatest population and hence greatest redistricting impact, meaning that the smaller states with Dem-held open seats (Kansas, Wyoming, etc.) have already probably been on the losing end of their triage decisions.

• TX-St. House: We at SSP have been remiss in focusing on state legislatures in the last few months (for the same reason everyone else has — it’s hard to get good intelligence on them, and there’s too dang much to focus on just at the national level alone), but Burnt Orange Report has done a bang-up job profiling the race for the Texas state House, one of the few legislatures where the Dems are on the offensive and have a slim but legitimate shot at a flip. They’ve written up summaries of the 21 hottest races, all helpfully collected in one place at the link.

• SSP TV:

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias ad rolling out his biggest gun: backing from Barack Obama

• PA-Sen: Not one but two ads from Pat Toomey ads with pretzel logic about how his time on Wall Street tells him that one shouldn’t bail out Wall Street

• WI-Sen: Ron Johnson ad hits Russ Feingold again for being a career politician

• TX-Gov: Bill White talks about border security

• VT-Gov: Dem group Green Mountain Future hits Brian Dubie on support for keeping local nuclear plant open

• FL-24: First Suzanne Kosmas ad hits Sandy Adams on teh crazy, especially the 17th Amendment

• GA-08: Jim Marshall ad tries to outflank Austin Scott on the right on the immigration issue

• MI-01: DCCC’s 2nd IE ad goes after Dan Benishek on Social Security

• NY-25: Dan Maffei’s first ad is anti-Ann Marie Buerkle, using Sarah Palin endorsement against her

• PA-06: Manan Trivedi’s second ad this week focuses on his time as a military doctor

• Rasmussen:

• AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard (D) 38%, Jan Brewer (R-inc) 60%

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 42%, Meg Whitman (R) 46%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 42%, Carly Fiorina (R) 47%

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 38%, Rand Paul (R) 51%

The California State Assembly hasn’t been very competitive for years now, but just because I like to contribute to the site, I’m going to discuss what very little out there that is competitive.

(image courtesy Wikipedia)

AD-5

This open seat being vacated by term limited Republican Roger Niello includes communities just north of Sacramento, including Citrus Heights. The voter registration is very tight here, with Democrats holding a very narrow edge of less than percentage point. Republicans nominated Andy Pugno, author of Proposition 8. The Democratic candidate, Dr. Richard Pan has the backing of Assembly Speaker John Perez. With such a tight registration edge, the Democrat has a good chance here. I still rate it Lean Republican, though, just for the environment.

AD-10

Alyson Huber prevailed by just 474 in 2008 and was declared the winner after her Republican opponent had gone to the capitol for orientation. This year, she’s facing her 2008 rival, San Joaquin County Supervisor Jack Sieglock once again. The district has a very narrow Democratic edge and includes suburbs of Sacramento, Lodi and part of Stockton in San Joaquin County and the whole of Amador County. Huber benefited from coattails last time around and even then the race was close, so this is one of the ones to watch. I rate it a Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic because incumbents in the Assembly don’t get defeated much (the last time was 10 years ago), but in a year that isn’t great for incumbents, it could happen. It depends on all much attention is paid to the race.

AD-15

This seat was one Democrats had targeted over a few cycles and failed to win. Joan Buchanan won it in 2008 with 52% again San Ramon Mayor Abram Wilson. Buchanan faces her 2008 again this time as well. This district includes areas of Contra Costa County that lean Republican, as well as portions of Sacramento, Alameda and San Joaquin Counties. Buchanan did run for the US House not long into her tenure, so that might be liability for her. Toss Up/Tilt Democratic, just because of the incumbency thing and the Assembly.

AD-26

Includes portions Stanislaus and San Joaquin Counties. Democrats hold a registration edge in this district that is held by Republican Bill Berryhill. Berryhill narrowly defeated Democrat John Eisenhut in 2008. This year’s Democratic nominee, Tim Weintz Sr., doesn’t seem to have a website, so it’s not clear what sort of candidate he is. Likely Republican.

AD-30

This central valley seat was the only legislative gain for Republicans in 2008. Former Assemblywoman Nicole Parra backed Republican Danny Gilmore over Democrat Fran Florez (mother of State Senator Dean Florez, who Parra has feuded with). Gilmore opted for only one term. Fran Florez is running again and defeated Parra’s father, Pete for the Democratic nomination and will face Republican David Valadao. Florez likely will win this time, but because of the climate, I’m rating it Lean Democratic.

AD-33

This seat contains the whole of San Luis Obispo County, plus Santa Maria and Lompoc in Santa Barbara County. SLO County leans Republican, while Santa Maria and Lompoc are more evenly split. Hilda Zacarias, Santa Maria’s mayor, is getting good backing from the establishment, but it’s climb for her in this district. She face SLO County supervisor Katcho Achadjian. Likely Republican.

AD-35

In this open seat race for the seat of term limited Assemblyman Pedro Nava, a very heavily contested primary between Nava’s wife, Susan Jordan and Santa Barbara councilman Das Williams. Williams prevailed in the primary, but came out with less cash on hand than his Republican opponent, former Santa Barbara County Supervisor Mike Stoker (who lost a Congressional race in 2000 against Rep. Lois Capps). There is a decent Democratic registration edge here and the district includes areas, like Santa Barbara, that vote strongly Democratic, so Williams has the edge, but it’s still worth watching since Stoker has a big money edge. Lean Democratic.

AD-36

This was one Assembly races in 2008 that was fairly close. Linda K. Jones received 48% of the vote to Steve Knight’s 51% in this Lancaster/Palmdale district. This is an area that has trended into swing territory over time and Democrats are more competitive here. Jones is running again, what’s not presence this time is the coattails of a Presidential race. The seat has a narrow Republican edge, which has been lowered do in part to many minorities moving into the Antelope Valley. This one I rate Likely Republican, simply for the fact that Democratic turnout will be lower than in 2008 and that same incumbency factor I mentioned earlier.

AD-37

Ferial Masry is on her fourth run for Assembly and came closest to winning in 2008 in this Thousand Oaks centered district. Her numbers then were do in part to coattails (Obama won Thousand Oaks and performed well in Simi Valley) and the fact that her opponent, Audra Strickland isn’t all that liked by some people. This year, Strickland is termed out and Masry is facing Jeff Gorell, who ran against Strickland in the GOP primary in 2004 and is the only Republican running for Assembly to get a union endorsement. Masry could poll well again, but it’s a climb.  Likely Republican.

AD-68

This is an open seat, in Orange County that includes Costa Mesa and portions of Garden Grove. The Republican advantage in registration is clear, but Democrats have found a strong candidate in Phu Nguyen. The GOP candidate, Costa Mesa mayor, Allan Mansoor is very nasty to say the least, he said that he entered politics because there were too many taco trucks on that streets. The large Vietnamese population in the district could carry Nguyen to victory, as well as a good percentage of the Hispanic vote. I rate this one Lean Republican just because of the registration in the district and the environment, but Nguyen still has a good chance.

AD-70

In another Orange County seat, which includes Irvine and Laguna Beach, Democrat Melissa Fox is making a legitimate effort. This district has a lot of Democratic voters even though the registration edge favors Republicans. Fox faces community college trustee Don Wagner in the general. I rate this one Likely Republican only because of the environment, but I’m not counting Fox out at all.

State Senate

SD-12

This is the only state Senate race this year that is remotely competitive. The Democratic registration edge is decent in this district that includes portions of Monterey and Stanislaus counties, but for the past 8 years, the seat has been held by a Republican. Now that the seat is open, Democratic Assemblywoman Anna Caballero is running for the seat against Republican Ceres Mayor Anthony Cannella. Both parties are making an effort here and it could go either way, especially in this year. Toss-Up.

SD-34

This district is located in Orange County, holding Santa Ana and portions of Anaheim. In 2004, Democrat Lou Correa very narrowly defeated Republican Lynn Daucher to take this seat. Since then, the seat has seen a big jump in Democratic voter registration. The GOP’s candidate this year is Anaheim City Councilwoman, Lucille Kring, but she doesn’t seem to be that strong of a candidate since her website only has a logo with her picture and a P.O. Box number underneath with no other information or links on the site, which is not smart for any campaign. Correa is a moderate Democrat, who is liked by both sides, so he’s the favorite here. Likely Democratic.

AK-Sen: On the topic of Lisa Murkowski’s declaration that she’s “still in this game” and her outreach efforts to a polite but seemingly unenthused Alaska Libertarian Party, The Mudflats sums up the situation pretty well:

   * She’s not technically in the race right now

   * She’s not out of the race

   * She’s not a quitter

   * She is who she is

   * She will likely not run as a Libertarian

   * She will likely not run as a write-in

   * She doesn’t know what she’s doing

NH-Sen: Businessman Bill Binnie is throwing down another $500K of his own money, with the GOP primary just a week in the way. Though ex-AG Kelly Ayotte leads in what little polling there’s been, I think this race is still up for grabs.

NV-Sen: The LVRJ has a detailed profile on Sharron Angle’s tumultuous years in the state Assembly, where votes in the 42-member body were often “41 to Angle.”

CO-Gov: Some Colorado Republicans are suing to try to knock Tom Tancredo off the ballot, saying his candidacy violates the American Constitution Party’s bylaws. Even if they’re right, I wonder if they have standing.

FL-08: Alan Grayson claims he raised half a million bucks in August, and says he has more than a million on hand, despite prepaying for a bunch of television advertising.

FL-24: GOPer Sandy Adams (and the NRCC, apparently) are touting a Public Opinion Strategies internal which has her leading Rep. Suzanne Kosmas 49-37.

HI-01: Colleen Hanabusa outraised Rep. Charles Djou in the pre-primary fundraising period, $330K to $206K. But Djou has slightly more cash on hand, $428K to $404K.

NY-14: Some Democrat she is. When asked by a reporter if she would vote for her opponent – not even endorse, just vote – in the general if she lost the primary, Reshma Saujani said she “didn’t know” whether she would pull the lever for Rep. Carolyn Maloney. I’ve been adamantly opposed to Saujani’s candidacy since I first learned about her, and with good reason. But this may be the most disgusting thing she’s said so far. How can I possibly trust the Democratic bona fides of someone who can’t even say if she’ll vote Democrat in her own district? And no, her campaign’s belated attempt to claim she’ll “vote a straight ticket” does not assuage me in the least. When the cameras were rolling and the pressure was on, Saujani admitted she wasn’t a team player. We don’t need people like her in Congress.

Turnout (PDF): According to data compiled by the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, the “average percentage of eligible citizens who voted in the primaries of each major political party” shows more a greater share of Republicans voting in primaries this year than Dems for the first time since 1930. Of course, 1930 was a pretty good year for Dems… but the trendlines are not inspiring.

SSP TV:

GA-Sen: GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson, not a guy you traditionally think of as being endangered (if you’ve ever even heard of him) touts his conservative record

NH-Sen: Paul Hodes compares Washington to… a hot dog eating contest

NV-Sen: Harry Reid continues to produce some of the best negative ads of the cycle

OH-Sen: We mentioned this ad in yesterday’s digest, wherein Lee Fisher sez: “Congressman Rob Portman knows how to grow the economy… in China!” Our update is that a GOPer says the buy is for $1.4 million and that the ad is running in Columbus and northern OH

FL-Gov: Alex Sink responds to Rick Scott’s attack ads, which she says are all about Obama, not Florida

CA-11: Jerry McNerney’s first ad, touting his support for veterans’ causes (I like that he has an actual veteran do the talking – much better than the usual candidate bragging or hackneyed voiceover)

CA-45: Dem Steve Pougnet is on the air with his first ad, kicking off a reported $100K/week TV & radio ad blitz from now through election day

CO-04: Betsy Markey has an anti-spending spot

NM-01: Republican Jon Barela has an ad complaining about the debt

NM-02: Harry Teague is up with his first ad of the cycle, a surprisingly authentic 60-second spot that’s worth watching

NM-02: Meanwhile, Americans for Job Security hits Teague over his vote for cap-and-trade (a “one-week” buy)

NY-02: If Steve Israel is worried enough to go up on the air….

VA-02: Glenn Nye touts his work to keep an aircraft carrier at Hampton Roads

As long as this SSP Editor (and newly minted Chicago resident) has been walking this earth, Chicago hasn’t had a mayor not named Richard M. Daley. Some thought it would never happen, but Da Mare is calling it quits:

Mayor Richard Daley says he will not run for re-election in 2011, saying it’s “time for me, it’s time for Chicago to move on.”

“The truth is I have been thinking about this for the past several months,” Daley said at a City Hall news conference that stunned the city. “In the end this is a personal decision, no more, no less.”

With the top spot in the Second City opening up for the first time in 22 years, speculation has already run rampant regarding who might throw their hat in the ring. Northwest/Southwest Side Congressman Luis Gutierrez is already forming an exploratory committee, while West Side Congressman Danny K. Davis won’t rule anything out just yet.

The 800-(fuckin’)-pound gorilla in the fuckin’ room, of course, is Rahm Emanuel, who represented a chunk of the North Side-based 5th district and had made his mayoral ambitions public awhile ago. But with even Rahmbo’s successor in Congress, Mike Quigley, saying that Rahm isn’t a shoo-in (among others, including South Side Congressmen Bobby Rush and Jesse Jackson Jr.), this race just may prove to be the hottest ticket around after November. (Quigley and JJJr. also haven’t ruled out runs, either.)

Other candidates floated include Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart, outgoing Cook County Assessor Jim Houlihan, North Side state Rep. John Fritchey, South Side state Sen. James Meeks, Circuit Court Clerk (and failed Cook County Board President candidate and ’07 mayoral candidate) Dorothy Brown, and two North Side Cook County Commissioners – Bridget Gainer (10th) and Forrest Claypool (12th, who’s also running as an indie for Cook County Assessor).

A host of Aldermen and former Aldermen (our term for City Councilpeople) are also rumored to be interested, including Manny Flores (formerly 1st Ward – Logan Square/Wicker Park), Bob Fioretti (2nd – South Loop/Near West Side), Leslie Hairston (5th – Hyde Park/Grand Crossing), JJJr.’s wife Sandi Jackson (7th – South Shore/Calumet Heights), Ed Burke (14th – Brighton Park/Gage Park), Scott Waguespack (32nd – Bucktown/Roscoe Village), Tom Allen (38th – Portage Park), Brendan Reilly (42nd – River North/Loop) and Tom Tunney (44th – Lakeview/Boystown). For what it’s worth, a third member of the Jackson family – JJJr.’s son Jonathan – has also been mentioned as a potential candidate.

If I’ve thrown enough neighborhood/area names in to confuse you, here’s a ward map I made, and the City’s official neighborhood map (pdf).

(And because I can’t get enough digs in on Todd Stroger, who knows, the soon-to-be former Cook County Board President – who finished 4th in his primary with 14% in February – might even be delusional enough to run!)

No mention of this race would be complete without a mention of the racial divisions present here. Chicago’s voting-age population, as of 2000, was 36.7% non-Hispanic White, 33.8% non-Hispanic Black, 22.8% Hispanic, and 4.7% Asian; leaders in both the Hispanic and Black communities have stated that they will be represented in the field. There’ll also be a divide between the pro-Daley loyalists and anti-Daley reformists, especially among white voters, probably between the younger “lakefront liberals” and the old-school machine pols on the Northwest/Southwest Sides. (Knowing nothing about the field right now, this Lakefront Lib would love to vote for Claypool, but would also happily vote for Gainer or Waguespack.)

Under Chicago’s quirky off-year municipal election calendar, petitions are due betwen November 15 and 22, with the primary election on February 22, 2011 and the general (i.e. runoff) between the top two vote-getters six weeks later on April 5 should no one receive 50% +1. With Daley – and many of his allies on the Chicago City Council – heading for the exits (and promotion-seeking Aldermen not running for re-election), one thing is certain: Chicago’s political landscape will be quite different come next April.

Update: A few more names I’ve seen bandied about: City Clerk Miguel del Valle, and Ald. Joe Moore (49th – Rogers Park/West RP). All the candidates highlighted here are Democrats…there’s 1 Republican (of 50) on the Chicago City Council, Brian Doherty (41st – Edison Park/O’Hare), and even he’s a close Daley ally.

Update 2: Even more candidates rumored, two of the Daley family: Da Mare’s brother William Daley, and his son Patrick Daley. More state officials include outgoing comptroller (and failed gubernatorial candidate) Dan Hynes and Attorney General (and daughter of state House Speaker Mike) Lisa Madigan. There’s also Cook County ClerkDavid Orr (who briefly served as mayor after Harold Washington’s death), former State Senate Majority Leader Emil Jones, and Ald. Gene Schulter (47th – North Center/Lincoln Square).

The Heart of This Year’s Darkness: The Deep South

There are seven Southern House seats that are, in my opinion, absolutely gone: the two open Arkansas seats, the Louisana 3rd, Tennessee 6th, Florida 2nd, and the Virginia 2nd and 5th. I still think we have a ghost of a chance in the Tennessee 8th, but that one is likely toast too.

If its any consolation, I think that the Arkansas 2nd and Tennessee 8th are long term pains in the neck for the GOP. The bright spot in the Deep South is the Louisana 2nd, which we should get back, so that effectively cancels out our loss of the 3rd district, which disappears in redistricting anyways.

I’m actually optimistic when it comes to pretty much every Deep South incumbent except for Allan Boyd. If my memory serves me right, the last one of those to lose under non flukey circumstances was Max Burns in the Georgia 12th in ’04. So I have Bright, Childers, Barrow, Spratt, Edwards, Ciro Rodriguez, and Marshall hanging on.

In the upper South and border states, things are a bit better. I think the North Carolina delegation is in relatively good shape, and that we hold onto the Virginia 11th as well. Kentucky is fine. In Florida south of the I-4 corridor, Kosmas and Grayson are far from gone (pure tossups, though I like Grayson’s chances better), Klein’s challenger in the 22nd is insane, and we could actually come out of Florida in better shape, if the only loss is Boyd and Garcia picks up the 25th. The GOP has yet to nail down Florida 12 as well.  

The Other Pain Center: The Industrial Midwest

Our incumbents in Missouri are in pretty good shape; I’m firmly convinced that Ike Skelton is too much of a fixture to lose and Russ Carnahan’s seat is too Democratic. Roy Blunt isn’t exactly setting the world on fire either on the Senate side, which is a plus. In Illiois, we should break even; minus Halvorson but plus Seals; Foster is a likely winner as well. I can live with that. I think Brad Ellsworth’s seat is a likely loss, but Donnelly and Hill narrowly hold on. The success of the auto bailout saves Gary Peters in the 9th District, but Mark Schauer is in trouble in the 7th. In Ohio, Kilroy isn’t strong enough, and Driehaus’s district is too polarized this year for him to survive; he’s not going to get the AA turnout he needs there. Boccieri should be okay in the 16th.

The Mid Atlantic

In the Mid Atlantic region, there are two seats that are currently very far gone: Pennsylvania 11th and New York 29th. Neither of those should be a long term hold for the GOP (PA-11 is too Dem, NY-29 goes in redistricting). There are a large number of seats I’m very concerned about here: the New York 24th (though I feel better seeing some positive numbers for Arcuri there), John Adler in the New Jersey 2nd, the Maryland 1st, and the Pennsylvania 3rd, 7th, and 10th; though Carney’s opposition seems sub-par. I particularly feel very queasy about the open 7th in Pennsylvania. Altmire, Murphy, and Holden should be okay,. Against this, we will pick up the open seat in Delaware.

New England

In all of New England, I think our only problems lay in the New Hampshire seats; my best guess is that we hold the 1st, and lose the open 2nd District. There are some who think MA-10 is in play, but I have my doubts, and even if it is, guess who gets screwed over in redidtricting….

The Upper Midwest and Plains

Our incumbents in Minnesota and Wisconsin seem to be in relatively good shape; Kagan could lose, but I honestly think he’ll be okay, and Julie Lassa’s opposition doesn’t seem to be that strong. Sadly, Michele Bachmann isn’t going anywhere though. In the Dakotas, I think we’ve been seeing too much Rasmussen and too little of anything else. I’m more worried about Pomeroy than Herseth-Sandlin because of Hoeven at the top of the ticket, but I think those are both holds at the end of the day.

I think that Dennis Moore’s seat in suburban Kansas City is a likely loss; the only incumbent in the region I have any reservations about is Leonard Boswell in the Iowa 3rd; he was in trouble even in the wave year of ’06. Why he didn’t get out of dodge in ’08 is beyond me…..

The West

This is the region where we’ve gotten the most help from the GOP. The top of the ticket for the GOP in Colorado is a godsend, which will give Markey a fighting chance, which is all you can ask for in this year’s environment. The spillover effects from Sharon Angle likewise help Dina Titus in suburban Las Vegas, and Jan Brewer doens’t look so hot in Arizona which helps out Harry Mitchell.

I’m guessing that we lose the open Washington 3rd, along with the Colorado 4th. Mitchell has a strong enough brand name in Tempe that he narrowly holds the Arizona 5th, and Titus’s seat could go either way. Somehow, I think Walt Minnick holds on, as does Harry Teague. We are plus one in Hawaii.

So, here’s the Dem lost causes (15):

-Arkansas 1st

-Arkansas 2nd

-Florida 2nd

-Louisana 3rd

-Kansas 3rd

-Illinois 11th

-New Hampshire 2nd

-New York 29th

-Ohio 1st

-Ohio 15th

-Pennsylvania 11th

-Tennessee 6th

-Virginia 2nd

-Virginia 5th

-Washington 3rd

GOP Goners (5)

+Delaware AL

+Florida 25th

+Hawaii 2nd

+Illinois 10th

+Louisana 2nd

Dem “It’s Not Looking Good” Seats (11)

-Colorado 4th

-Florida 24th

-Indiana 8th

-New York 24th

-Maryland 1st

-Michigan 7th

-Nevada 3rd

-New Jersey 2nd

-Pennsylvania 3rd

-Pennsylvania 7th

-Tennessee 8th

Dem Watch List

-Arizona 5th

-Florida 8th

-Iowa 3rd

-Illinois 15th

-Indiana 2nd

-Indiana 9th

-Michigan 9th

-Missouri 4th

-New York 20th

-New York 23rd

-Ohio 16th

-Pennsylvania 10th

-Virginia 11th

GOP Watch List

+Arizona 3rd (nothing but a gut feeling here)

+Florida 12th

+Minnesota 6th

Overall Guess: ~R + 29 seats

As a note feel free to comment about any of these races, and I’ll give you my thoughts