Month: September 2010

This morning I took a look at all of the House Polling since since September 12th that is listed at electoral-vote.com.  There have been 31 polls taken since the 12th.

In 2008 the Democrats beat the GOP by 10.68%.In the 31 polls I looked at, the average shift in the margin was -10.88.  Sounds awful, doesn’t it?

It is, but what it also suggests is that the generic ballot isn’t anywhere close to GOP +10. What really caught my eye was comparing the numbers against the Cook PVI.  On average, the 31 races are about 6 points better for the Democrats than where you would expect them to be in a 50-50 race.  This is the power of incumbency, and suggests that when you look at individual races Democrats are running ahead of where they should be given the generic ballot.

This is a very rough analysis, obviously.  But in the past I have found comparing swings in local races against the National Swings very useful.

Here is the data:

https://spreadsheets.google.co…

Though official census data won’t be published until the end of the year, Election Data Services has released an updated reapportionment projection, based on population estimates published by GIS software maker Esri. To see how things have changed over the years, I’m including EDS’s projections for 2007, 2008, and 2009. Note that in prior years, EDS used several different models for its forecasts, which is why you see two different possibilities for some states in certain years.

The biggest loser here is New York, which, after two straight years of facing only a single-seat loss, is back two a two-seat drop – though only by the narrowest of margins: the Empire State would get the 436th seat in Congress, if it existed. The other clear loser is Missouri, which swaps places with Minnesota – MN hangs on to its final seat, while Missouri now fails to. And Arizona, which last year could have gained either one or two seats, now looks set to pick up just one. Meanwhile, California (0), Florida (2) and Texas (4) all wind up with their higher projections.

EDS also provides a list of states on the bubble, which you can see below:

In addition to the states on the lists above, EDS also thinks that Nebraska and Rhode Island are also at risk of losing a seat when the final numbers come out in December.

UPDATE: In comments, Nico takes a look back at EDS’s projections for the prior decade and finds that, while good, they still missed a few things. So we are very likely to see some surprises.

AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski is seeking clarification on just how expansively the state elections board will view misspellings or variants of her name. Lt. Gov. Craig Campbell, who’s in charge of all this, previously said he leans “toward a liberal view” of how to count Murkowski ballots, but now he’s refusing to get more specific. See you in court?

DE-Sen: Bill Maher keeps serving up the goodies:

O’DONNELL: You know what, evolution is a myth. And even Darwin himself –

MAHER: Evolution is a myth?!? Have you ever looked at a monkey!

O’DONNELL: Well then, why they – why aren’t monkeys still evolving into humans?

FL-Sen: Former Rep. Robert Wexler became one of the most prominent Democrats to break ranks and endorse Charlie Crist. Wexler, who has long had a close relationship with Crist, famously abandoned his party earlier this year by resigning his seat in the middle of the term, before the final votes on healthcare reform.

FL-Gov: Douchebag zillionaire Rick Scott really just out-did himself with only three words. When asked if he had forked over another million bucks to his campaign (he had), Scott responded: “I don’t know.” I guess it’s easy to forget writing seven-figure checks when you’re Rick Scott!

IA-Gov: This race has been depressing for a long while now, and the latest news is no different. A Selzer poll for the Des Moines Register shows GOPer Terry Branstad crushing Gov. Chet Culver 52-33. Just ugh.

ME-Gov: Greenberg Quinlan Rossner (D) for Libby Mitchell (9/22-24, likely voters, July in parens):

Libby Michell (D): 34 (32)

Paul LePage (R): 38 (44)

Eliot Cutler (I): 10 (8)

Shawn Moody (I): 8 (5)

Kevin Scott (I): 2 (2)

Undecided: 7 (10)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Mitchell also says her internal shows LePage’s favorability weakening from 33-19 to 38-36 over the same timespan.

AZ-01: CQ got ahold of a month-old internal poll for Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick by Lake Research Partners, which shows the race to be very tight. Kirkpatrick had a 43-39 lead over Republican Paul Gosar. But of course, we’re talking about late August. Who knows what’s changed since then.

CO-03: Nice catch by Colorado Pols. Check out Republican Scott Tipton trying to backpedal away from his earlier statements that he’d eliminate the Department of Education:

Tipton said his plan for that department is the same as his plan for the entire federal government, to cut it in half. He said he plans to do that without cutting government services….

That is some seriously lulzy shit right there, my friends. Even better is the fact, as CO Pols points out, that Tipton already tried to back away from this plan (“slice the gov’t in half”) a few days ago, but he’s already re-un-flip-pivot-flopping back to it. Man.

CT-05: Smaller, fun-size cat fud: Mark Greenberg, who lost in the GOP primary to Sam Caligiuri, showed up on Caligiuri’s hometown to make an endorsement… of the Republican running in Rosa DeLauro’s district. A Caliguri endorsement sounds unlikely.

FL-22: I’m not a big fan of Politifact for a variety of reasons, but they sink their teeth into a good one here. At a recent candidate forum, Allen West claimed, “If you look at the application for a security clearance, I have a clearance that even the president of the United States cannot obtain because of my background.” This is obviously insane, points out Politifact, because security clearances exist because of a presidential executive order… which is signed by, uh, the president. The other possible way of viewing this (which is what West’s campaign proudly says is their view) is as a birther-esque claim that grew out of right-wing email forwards. This “school of thought” holds that Obama’s shaaady personal background means that he’d never have gotten security clearance by normal means (if he hadn’t been elected). Yeah, okay.

MS-04: Remember when, a few weeks ago, Heath Shuler suggested that he might run for Speaker of the House? Well now Rep. Gene Taylor is the latest ConservaDem to take up residence in fantasy-land, saying that he’d prefer 78-year-old Ike Skelton for Speaker, rather than answer a question about whether he’d vote for Nancy Pelosi again. Taylor also refused to answer how he’d react if Republicans approached him about a party switch.

NV-03: In response to a claim by the Smart Media Group that the DCCC was cancelling a week-long buy on behalf of Rep. Dina Titus, the D-Trip announced that three panzer divisions were reconsolidating on the Eastern front the cancellation was actually a sign of strength. Later that same day, perhaps realizing that sounded like bullshit, the same Dem spokesman said that the party was still committed to a million-dollar ad buy.

PA-10: After an AP report cited an anonymous Dept. of Justice source on this story, the Scranton Times Tribune obtained an on-the-record statement from the DoJ confirming that the department has no record of having given approval for then-US Attorney Tom Marino to serve as a reference on a casino license application for his buddy Louis DeNaples. If you’ve been following this story, you know that DeNaples was a possibly-mobbed-up “businessman” who was under investigation by Marino’s own office – and when Marino got busted for providing the reference, he resigned in disgrace, and then took a sinecure with DeNaples. Marino claimed back in the spring that he had received permission from the DoJ to give a reference for DeNaples, but this has clearly turned out to be bullshit. Dem Chris Carney has gotten a lot of mileage out of this so far.

While we’re on the subject, Maine-based pollster Critical Insights tested this race for the Wilkes-Barre Times Leader. They found Marino ahead of Carney 40-36. But the n on this poll was extremely low – just 196 LVs.

PA-11: The Times Leader also polled the 11th CD. Again, with a very small sample (211 LVs), they found Republican Lou Barletta leading Rep. Paul Kanjorski by a 43-32 margin. The Kanjorski campaign blistered the poll, offering some slightly dumber lines of attack (“Makes you wonder if The Times Leader didn’t cook the numbers”) and some sharper ones (noting that the TL doesn’t seem to be very adept at polling, given that last week they tested the Lt. Gov. race, even though Pennsylvanians don’t elect the LG separately). They also questioned the partisan makeup of the sample, and its small size.

NRCC: The NRCC just made $3.2 million in expenditures on a ton of different races – too many to list here. It looks like it’s mostly for paid media, as well as a bunch of polls in a number of districts. Be interesting to see if any see the light of day.

SSP TV (by James L.):

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons’ latest ad touts reform and fiscal conservatism
• KY-Sen: Jack Conway’s out with a great ad that personalizes Rand Paul’s nagging hostility to federal anti-drug funding
• FL-Gov: Alex Sink attacks chrome-domed creep Rick Scott for attacking her over the Florida state pension fund
• CO-04: Dem Rep. Betsy Markey paints Cory Gardner as a career politician with his hand in the trough
• FL-08: Dem Rep. Alan Grayson takes off the gloves… and straps on a set of brass knuckles. In his latest ad, he paints his Republican opponent as a radical religious fundamentalist, going so far as to call him “Taliban Dan Webster”. In another ad, Grayson hits Webster for his Vietnam deferrals. Also worth mentioning is this ad, which came out two weeks ago but went unmentioned here, where Grayson resurrects his famous “briefcase” theme from last cycle.
• HI-01: GOP Rep. Charles Djou responds to the DCCC’s latest attack ad
• IA-03: Dem Rep. Leonard Boswell unleashes a decent ad hitting Brad Zaun on “personal responsibility” hypocrisy
• IL-14: Dem Rep. Bill Foster goes after GOP state Sen. Randy Hultgren for his company’s  role in fueling the mortgage crisis (and profiting from it)
• NY-13: Frosh Dem Rep. Mike McMahon’s first ad touts his accomplishments and votes, including his vote against healthcare reform
• OH-15: Dem Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy touts her votes, while, in another ad, smacks Steve Stivers over his support of a national sales tax.
• OR-05: A six-pack of seniors form a chorus to sing Dem Rep. Kurt Schrader’s praises, and wave their hickory walking sticks in Republican Scott Bruun’s direction
• PA-11: GOPer Lou Barletta responds to Paul Kanjorski’s attacks

I guess it fits: Rogue ophthalmologist Rand Paul, who once set out to found a rival eye doctors’ group, is also a member of a fringe conservative medical organization founded in opposition to the mainstream American Medical Association. The Courier-Journal does yeoman work in elucidating the views of the so-called Association of American Physicians and Surgeons. I suggest you read the whole article, but here are a few choice excerpts:

But the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons published an article in 2007 saying “both official reports and the peer-reviewed literature afford substantive grounds for doubting that HIV is the necessary and sufficient cause of AIDS and that anti-retroviral treatment is unambiguously beneficial.”

On its Website, the AAPS included an article in October 2008 titled, “Is Obama a Brilliant Orator … or a Hypnotist?” It cites an unsigned paper suggesting that Obama used hypnotic techniques and speech patterns in his 2008 campaign.

The paper claims to examine Obama’s speeches “word by word, hand gesture by hand gesture, tone, pauses, body language, and proves his use of covert hypnosis intended only for licensed therapists on consenting patients.”

The AAPS advances the claim that women who have abortions are at a higher risk for breast cancer, although the National Cancer Institute and the American Cancer Society say there is no such link.

And the group opposes mandatory vaccinations and promotes a now-discredited study linking thimerosal, a longtime component of many vaccines, to autism in children.

There’s even a tie-in to Rand Paul’s favorite hobbyhorse, the federally-funded Operation UNITE. The AAPS thinks that doctors who over-prescribe pain medications have been unfairly targeted; UNITE fired back, saying “If the (AAPS) truly cared about their profession they should champion enforcement efforts, encourage stiff penalties for those abusing their medical oath and save people’s lives.”

Of course, I’m sure this stuff – especially the Obama lunacy (read the article, there are more goodies) – will only make Rand Paul more appealing to his fellow Republicans.

UPDATE: Great reminder by atdleft:

As GOP Senate nominee Sharron Angle attempts to parry charges from Harry Reid’s campaign that she is “just too extreme,” she is the headliner at an event Saturday promoted by a physician’s group that is far out of the mainstream. The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, which is a major promoter of the Doctors Tea Party in San Diego on Saturday, has given voice to some bizarre theories, believes the advent of Medicare in 1965 was “evil” and “immoral” and once published a piece arguing HIV may not cause AIDS. There’s more, too, with the group promoting one of Angle’s previously expressed theories that abortion may cause breast cancer and it also once argued the FDA is unconstitutional.

As atd says, “I guess ‘King Tea-nut’ and ‘Queen Tea-nut’ have been reunited yet again!”

The race to fill the position of Lt. Gov. is heating up here in the Pelican State.

The winner fills the seat now held by Lt. Gov. Scott Angelle, a Democrat who was appointed by Gov. Bobby Jindal to replace Mitch Landrieu, now Mayor of New Orleans.

The position has very few powers, but it provides a clear path to higher office and is first in the line of succession to the governor’s office. Specifically, the job of Lt. Gov. is “to promote culture, recreation and tourism,” according to The (Baton Rouge) Advocate.

To fill the seat, Louisiana will use a jungle primary. If none of the eight candidate receive a majority of the vote, then the top two vote getters, regardless of political party, will enter a runoff held on Nov. 2.

The first round of election occurs Oct. 2; however, as both LSU and Southern University play at home that day (a Saturday), more voters are expected to turnout during the early voting period, which ends today, than usual.

Turnout so far has been very light. According to the Secretary of State’s Office and reported by The Advocate, only 50,540 of the state’s 2.92 million registered voters have turned out to vote as of Thursday. Election forecasters expect turnout to hover around 20% of registered voters.

Due to the number of candidates, the race will certainly head to a runoff. Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, a Republican from Baton Rouge, will almost surely be the top vote getter.

Thus, next week’s election will determine who will face him for the seat. A poll conducted Aug. 15-16 for WWL-TV of New Orleans shows that country music singer and perennial Republican candidate Sammy Kershaw in second.

The poll gave 20% to Jay Dardenne (R), 15% to Rep. Sammy Kershaw (R), 8% to St. Tammany Parrish President Kevin Davis (R), 4% to state Republican Party Chairman Roger Villere (R) and 2% to each of the other remaining candidates.

Notably in the poll, no Democrat tops 2%. That is because up to recently, the Democrats in the race had very little name recognition. The Democrats in the race are State Sen. Butch Gautreaux, New Orleans lawyer Caroline Fayard and former Caddo Parish Police Juror Jim Crowley.

Since then, a couple of news developments seem to have changed this. First off, former President Bill Clinton endorsed and hosted a fundraiser for Caroline Fayard, a former congressional page and intern in the Clinton White House.

Additionally, campaign finance reports were released from the latest period, showing Ms. Fayard raised more money than all other candidates. Those reports do not include money raised during the New York fundraiser with Mr. Clinton.

Finally, Ms. Fayard has gotten on the airways with television buys in New Orleans, Baton Rouge and Shreveport.

The goal of this campaign is to finish second to Mr. Dardenne.

Mr. Dardenne will almost surely win. He has a decent record, statewide name recognition and comes off as experienced and friendly. He is the closest thing to a generic Republican I can think of.

He is probably slightly to the left of the state Republican party but has the type of ideology that would be typical of establishment Republicans across the U.S.

This race for second place does, however, carry some significance.

Rumors around the state suggest that the party is grooming her to run against Gov. Jindal in 2011. Right now, there are no viable democrats up to the job, and a strong second place showing by Ms. Fayard would certainly help.

Most likely, Ms. Fayard would not win against Mr. Dardenne or Mr. Jindal, but at age 32, she could be a viable candidate for future higher office.

Please, if you would, support Caroline Fayard for Lt. Gov. of Louisiana, and if you are a registered voter in Louisiana, please vote for Caroline next Saturday.

(Just to be clear, I am in no way connected to the state Democratic Party or the campaign of Caroline Fayard)

Mason-Dixon (9/20-22, likely voters, no trend lines):

Alex Sink (D): 47

Rick Scott (R): 40

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±4%)

Mason-Dixon actually has polled this race before, but I left out the trend lines due to Bud Chiles’ presence in their August poll. In that one, Sink led Scott by 40-26, with 17% going to Bud. Before that, all the way back in May, Sink had a 38-36 lead on Scott.

The Senate numbers yield much better results for Republicans (8/9-11 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 23 (18)

Marco Rubio (R): 40 (38)

Charlie Crist (I): 28 (33)

Undecided: 9 (11)

(MoE: ±4%)

This is starting to look like an impossible needle for Charlie Crist to thread. Witness the roll out of Charlie Crist 9.0:

The new boiled down platform for an independent Crist? “Tax cuts? Hell yes,” Crist said. “Government in your bedroom? Hell no.”

Incoherency? Hell yes!

So I figure like a lot of you already have, I need to put my ass on the line and make a projection this year. I delayed this as long as I could, wanting to see how things shake out and hoping things got a bit better for Team Blue. They did, and they didn’t: we got Christie O’Donnell, but Russ Feingold is now locked in a tight race.

So here we go. For the record, I have a Republican pickup of six seats right now. Pickups are designated in bold. I have determined for my purposes, its cowardly to call a race a tossup, so I don’t have that category in my rankings. I don’t have the Dems picking up any Republican seats, although I hold out the most hope in Kentucky. I’m going to try to do this for governors races (and if I get really ambitious, the House) at a later date.  

Safe Dem

Oregon – Ron Wyden – D-incumbent

New York A – Chuck Schumer – D-incumbent

Maryland – Barbara Milkulski – D-incumbent

Hawaii – Daniel Inouye – D-incumbent

Vermont – Patrick Leahy – D-incumbent

Safe Republican

Alabama – Richard Shelby – R-incumbent

Arizona – John McCain – R-incumbent

Idaho – Mike Crapo – R-incumbent

South Dakota – John Thune – R-incumbent

Iowa – Chuck Grassley – R-incumbent. I thought this one might have more potential at one point, but I don’t see it now.

Oklahoma – Tom Coburn – R incumbent

South Carolina – Jim DeMint – R incumbent.

Georgia – Johnny Isakson – R incumbent

Kansas – Jerry Moran – Republican challenger

Utah – Mike Lee – Republican challenger

North Dakota – John Hoeven – Republican challenger. Wouldn’t it have been great if Kos had been able to convince the tea partiers to challenge him?

Likely Democrat

Delaware – Chris Coons vs. Christine O’Donnell. If Mike Castle decides to run here, I might revisit this. But for now, I’m assuming he doesn’t do a write in, and Coons wins it pretty big.

New York B – Kirstin Gillibrand v. Joe DioGuardi. It’s possible DioGuardi could pick up some momentum in the next month. Gillibrand is still somewhat unknown downstate, but even thought this might get closer I think DioGuardi is too weak of a candidate

Lean Democrat

California – Barbara Boxer vs. Carly Fiorna. Boxer has never been the most popular politician, but Obama is not as unpopular in California as elsewhere and Fiorna is a very beatable opponent. This might be close, but Boxer will pull it out.

Washington – Patty Murray vs. Dino Rossi. I’ve been pleasantly surprised at the way this race is going. I was very worried about Murray a month ago. Not so much now.

Connecticut – Richard Blumenthal vs. Linda McMahon. I worry about this one, but in the end, I just don’t see how McMahon overcomes the anchor that is pro-wrestling in mostly white collar Connecticut. Blumenthal needs to step up his game though. This needs to change to likely Republican.

Nevada – Harry Reid vs. Sharon Angle. The polls have been close, and some might argue Angle has a bit of momentum, but I think Reid pulls it out because minorities in Nevada are consistently underpolled, and the Democratic machine is strong.

West Virginia – Joe Manchin vs. John Raese. I’m actually more worried about this one than any of my other Lean Democrats. This is definitely 1996 Nebraska Senate Race (popular incumbent governor is defeated by underdog Republican) vs. 2010 PA-12 (Democrat wins against business guy in potentially hostile non-urban environment). I think Raese is a weaker candidate than Chuck Hagel in 1996, so I’m still giving this to Manchin. But it’s gonna be close.

Pennsylvania – Joe Sestak vs. Pat Toomey. I know, I know. The polls don’t show this right now. But Sestak should not be underestimated as a campaigner, and I still think once he gets on television he will close just like he did against Specter. Also, I still see Toomey as too conservative for Pennsylvania. I hope so, anyway.

Likely Republican

Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln vs. John Boozeman. I think this one will be closer than anyone predicts. Lincoln has a lot of money, and Boozeman seems to me to be a weak candidate. But I think it’s too large of gap at this point for Blanche to overcome, especially without any union support.

Indiana – Dan Coates vs. Brad Ellsworth I had high hopes for this one a couple of months ago, but Ellsworth isn’t getting the job done, and Coates is proving to be a pretty good fundraiser, and non-crazy. I just don’t see Ellsworth making up lost ground at this point.

North Carolina – Richard Burr vs. Elaine Marshall. Burr was/is definitely vulnerable. But Marshall is the wrong candidate running in the wrong year.

Florida – Charlie Crist vs. Kendrick Meek vs. Marco Rubio. Some people may see this as premature, but unless something happens to change the dynamic (say, Meek endorsing Crist or vice versa), I think Rubio wins this pretty easily.

Louisiana – David Vitter v. Charlie Melancon. For the forseeable future, there is going to be no right year for a Democrat to run for Senate in the Louisiana. Melancon is also hurt by the gulf oil spill fading as an issue.

Ohio – Lee Fisher vs. Rob Portman. Like Florida, some people may say this is premature, but Fisher is fading fast, with no money to make up lost ground. I expect the DSCC to abandon this race just as the Republicans abandoned Mike DeWine in 2006.

Lean Republican

Kentucky – Rand Paul vs. Jack Conaway. I do think this is still a race, but Paul is still a couple of gaffes away from losing. The debate next week will be crucial.

Alaska – Joe Miller vs. Lisa Murkowski vs. Scott McAdams. I go back and forth on whether this is lean or likely Republican, but I do think Murkowski’s write in campaign will hurt Miller more than McAdams (as opposed to if she were on the ballot). Still, I don’t see this as a genuine tossup yet.

New Hampshire – Kelly Ayotte vs. Paul Hodes. I’ve always thought Hodes is a weak campaigner, and Ayotte has got a united Republican party on her side. New Hampshire is moving rapidly to blue, but I’m not sure it’s rapidly enough to save Hodes, although Palin’s endoresement of Ayotte will hurt her from this point forward.

Missouri – Robin Carnahan vs. Roy Blunt. Actually, this should be Robin Carnahan vs. the national environment, because in the 2006 or 2008 she would have probably beat Blunt easily. Not this year, though, and Obama is very unpopular in Missouri. This is tossup, but favors the Republican at this point.

Colorado – Ken Buck v. Michael Bennett I think Buck is a stronger candidate than people give him credit for, stronger than Angle and Paul certainly. This is one race that I expect to trend against the Democrats as time goes on, although Bennett will be helped by the clusterf*ck for the Republicans in the governors race.

Illinois – Mark Kirk vs. Alexi Giannoulias This one may surpise some people, and it’s the pursest tossup of any race I have on my list. What makes me think Kirk wins: there’s a lot of unhappiness with Democrats in Illinois right now, Kirk is moderate, Kirk gets the benefit of Brady’s downstate pull and Pat Quinn is turning out to be a disaster of a candidate. Kirk is so far the luckiest Republican of this cycle – if the Illinois primary had been a couple of months later, he would have been tea-partied out of existence.

Wisconin – Russ Feingold vs. Ron Johnson This one breaks my heart, because I love Russ Feingold as a Senator. But I don’t think anyone can doubt he’s behind at this point, though by how much is debatable. He needs to change the momentum here, fast.  

SurveyUSA for WHAS-TV and the Louisville Courier-Journal (9/21-23, likely voters, 8/30-9/1 in parentheses):

Jack Conway (D): 47 (40)

Rand Paul (R): 49 (55)

Undecided: 4 (5)

(MoE: ±4%)

That’s a fat bounce for Jack Conway – a change dramatic enough to make this his best performance in a SUSA poll since November 2009. Of course, SUSA’s last poll came under a great deal of scrutiny for its likely voter model that only gave Democrats a 47-42 partisan advantage over Republicans. When that poll was released, SUSA spokesperson Ken Alper pushed back on any suggestions that the model was flawed, arguing that the numbers (which are out-of-whack with historical realities) were a reflection of shifting partisan identification and a burgeoning enthusiasm gap in the state. But now, SUSA’s likely voter sample seems more realistic at 51D-36R. So which is it?

I find SUSA head Jay Leve’s explanation a little… unconvincing:

“There is a natural ebb and flow to party composition,” said pollster Jay Leve of Survey USA, “I would not make more of this than there is.”

It seems to me that a ten point shift in party ID in three weeks is something other than mere “natural ebb and flow”, but what do I know.

It’s high time we do a House Cattle Call, seeing as we haven’t done one all cycle.

In case you haven’t done one of these before, rank House seats in order of likelihood of flipping from one party to the other. The traditional SSP way is to include seats held by both parties in a single list (separate lists make comparisons harder). Go as far down the list as you like. If you need some food for thought, check out Swing State’s House race ratings. Have fun!  

Braun Research for cn|2 (9/21-22, likely voters, 7/26-27):

Ben Chandler (D-inc): 51 (46)

Andy Barr (R): 37 (32)

Undecided: 13 (21)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Yet another good poll for Ben Chandler. For those keeping score, Chandler was up by 20% in his latest internal, by 14% in a DCCC internal, and by 7% in Barr’s internal. I like all of those numbers!

Meanwhile, Braun also polled the Senate race, and finds that Jack Conway has a 47-41 lead on Rand Paul in the 6th CD. Unfortunately, Braun didn’t test the Senate race in their July poll of this district, so no trend lines there. (Though note that Braun’s last statewide poll had Paul leading Conway by 10% in the 6th, but of course the standard caveats about high-MoE sub-samples apply here.) You’ve got to figure that this is a must-win district for Conway this fall.