Month: October 2010

• IL-Sen: Serial exaggerator Mark Kirk has a new one on his hands: he was previously claiming that he was the driving force behind a bill that cracked down on companies that do business with Iran (but that got turned into a Howard Berman bill so it could pass the Democratic House, says Kirk). Berman says that’s not the case at all, and that his committee didn’t even consider the Kirk version of the bill.

• NV-Sen: Sharron Angle had possibly the weirdest ever visit to a group of Latino high school students, first telling them that those weren’t supposed to be Latinos in her ad featuring scary-looking dark-skinned persons crossing the border. Maybe those are actually Arabs, and maybe they’re crossing the Canadian border, she mused? She then turned the tables back on the students, saying that “I don’t know that all of you are Latino. Some of you look a little more Asian to me.” Asian like… Middle Eastern terrorists, maybe? With Sharron Angle speaking, who even knows?

• IL-Gov: Whitey no more? Green Party candidate “Rich Whitey” will apparently get ballots in select Chicago wards changed back to his actual (and preferred) name, Rich Whitney. Apparently there was enough time to reprogram all the machines if crews work overtime.

• SC-Gov: I’m not sure whose side to take here: on the one hand, it’s good to see the DNC putting money into the late-breaking South Carolina governor’s race, where internals see it as a mid-single-digits race and a real opportunity now. On the other hand, South Carolina Dems just sound pissed, saying the $100K expenditure is too little too late (which is probably true).

• CA-03: Here’s an eye-catching independent expenditure: American Crossroads (aka Rove, Inc.) is pouring $682K into a TV buy against Ami Bera in the 3rd. That would tend to support the idea that Dan Lungren, who’s lost the fundraising game to Bera every quarter, is also putting up some middling internals too.

• PA-07: Now this isn’t good, especially this late in the game: the Pennsylvania state Teamsters suddenly revoked their endorsement of Bryan Lentz. There’s no official word on what caused the rift, but it seems to relate back to Lentz’s sponsorship of a bill that cracks down on construction firms that misclassify workers to avoid paying taxes.

• OH-St. House: The Cleveland Plain Dealer has a good profile of 10 of the most important races in one of our most important legislative chambers, where Dems have a small edge (53-46) and need to hold it for redistricting purposes. It’s a mix of suburban Cleveland, suburban Columbus, and the rural southern part of the state.

• AFL-CIO: Here’s an interesting memo out from the AFL-CIO’s political director today suggesting that they’ve made a lot of under-the-radar progress in the last few weeks, redirecting members who weren’t engaged or were flirting with the Republicans. In particular, Pennsylvania stands out, where they’re finding that Joe Sestak now has a 55-26 lead among union members, up from only 45-39 at the start of September. They also point out that Joe Manchin now has a 40-point lead among union members in another union-heavy state, West Virginia.

• Early voting: Early voting gets underway today in Florida and Texas, along with five other smaller states. Adding in the states where voting has already started, that means the election is truly afoot in nearly half of all states.

• Debates: We’re adding a new component to our digests: courtesy of our friends at C-SPAN, a list of all the debates that are on tap and on the air each night on C-SPAN. Because if you’re reading this, we know you can’t get enough politicking:

8 pm ET: WV-Sen

9 pm ET: WI-07

10 pm ET: IL-11

11 pm ET : AZ-05

• SSP TV:

• AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski may be the only Republican running a pro-pork campaign, with her new ad talking about how Joe Miller will cut off the flow of federal funds to Alaska

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet hits Ken Buck on Social Security privatization and his hardcore pro-life positions

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway moves quickly along from the ‘Aqua Buddha’ ad, turning the conversation back to mine safety, while Rand Paul continues to whine about it, spending an ad touting his Christian faith

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt tries out a little Medicare sleight-of-hand (the whole HCR-cut-Medicare!!1! line)

• NH-Gov: The DGA, via local group Citizens for Strength and Security, hits John Stephen for retaining his campaign manager even after he received a restraining order for stalking

• NRCC: If you’ve ever wanted to watch 40+ Republican House ads in one sitting, here’s your chance

• Rasmussen:

• AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 39%, Sean Parnell (R-inc) 52%

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45%, Ken Buck (R) 47%

• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 49%, Tom Foley (R) 45%

• HI-Sen: Dan Inouye (D-inc) 53%, Cam Cavasso (R) 40%

• MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 47%, Charlie Baker (R) 42%, Tim Cahill (I) 6%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 47%, Sharron Angle (R) 50%

• UT-Gov: Peter Corroon (D) 29%, Gary Herbert (R-inc) 66%

• UT-Sen: Sam Granato (D) 29%, Mike Lee (R) 54%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 46%

We’re going way downballot, baby. As I like to say: SSPers do it downballot.  [and yes, I would buy a t-shirt that said that]

Wait, what is the DLCC and what are their essential races?

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is the downballot counterpart to the attention-hogging DCCC (triage!) and DSCC (save the saucer!). They focus on state legislative races and are especially active this cycle with redistricting hanging in the balance. State legislatures, of course, are crucial players in the process, and swinging them our way will help prevent DeLaymanders. The DLCC party poohbahs, as it were, selected 40 races, mostly focused on redistricting and the most hotly-contested state houses. Party Picks 1-20. Party Picks 21-40. But then the DLCC did something that made me love them. Oh yes, love. The DLCC solicited right here on SSP, nominations for more of these Essential downballot races. And apparently, we nominated the hell out of our candidates, because the DLCC announced The Grassroots 15, instead of just 10. And frankly, looking at the grassroots nominees, we did good y’all.

Why should I care?

Besides being SSP’s bread and butter (well, Congressional races are probably the bread & butter…downballot is more like…the arugula?), I would posit that it is these sort of races that are truly the purest form of American democracy. The Founders, I think, both envisioned and practiced this sort of meet-your-neighbors campaigning. Downballot races are also much more dependent on candidates–almost never national forces sweep in and, say, donate $13 million to Sharron Angle when she’s running for the Nevada state legislature. But the great thing from the perspective of civic-minded citizens is that participating in races like these can yield bigger and more tangible results than say, giving Jack Conway $20 (not that there’s anything wrong with that). But when $20-$25k is enough for the entire race, even a small donation to Manning’s campaign can make a big difference. So why does the DLCC say this race matters?

Why this Race Matters: This campaign turned ugly for Democratic nominee Dan Manning a few weeks ago when he discovered a death threat laced with anti-gay slurs on his doorstep. Manning is a decorated West Point graduate who was discharged from the military because of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell. If Manning wins his race, factional divisions within the state Republican Party would give him considerably more influence in the Kansas House than the GOP’s wide chamber majority would suggest.

Plus, as our own James L. pointed out in a 2006 diary:

Democratic gains in state legislatures are crucial for building the “farm team” for higher offices.

That James L. link btw, enumerates the gains made in state legislatures in the 2006 election. And James, of course, is/was right–state Rep. Raj Goyle (KS-04) and state Rep. Bryan Lentz (PA-07), for example, are now in tight races for Congress, and were among those 268 net pickups in 2006 (that was in state Houses alone).

Well, in Dan Manning, Democrats may have a candidate who could eventually go far, far beyond the mostly middle-class neighborhoods of Wichita’s 91st District. Find out why, after the jump….

THE CANDIDATE:

Dan “Death Threat” Manning … oh yeah, I’m making that his official nickname now.

Since we last checked in on him and his campaign, as well as other top state legislative races in Kansas, Dan “Death Threat” Manning has emerged as one of the Kansas Democratic Party’s most formidable new candidates.

He’s like the new Sean Tevis, except way, way different.

Georgia-born Dan Manning is a West Point grad (’04) and Mandarin-speaking military vet booted from the Army thanks to “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” (timely!).

If I have the story right, Manning actually “told” via press release upon announcing the formal creation of Knights Out, the pro-LGBT, anti-DADT West Point alumni group. Manning currently sits on the Knights Out board.

UPDATE: Yeah, I was totally wrong. He was outed and kicked out before they did the whole press release thing. Still, I’ve never come out via press release, and I don’t really know of many who have.

Btw, guess who Dan Manning recruited to be spokesperson and a co-founder of Knights Out? Dan Choi.

So yes, gays, you partially have Dan Manning to thank for Dan Choi becoming the badass LGBT activist he is today.

After all, Dan Choi probably wouldn’t have been on TV talking to Rachel Maddow if he wasn’t speaking for Knights Out at the time. And thus, no springboard to national fame.  

No seriously, thank you for Dan Choi.

After getting his honorable discharge from the US Army, Manning put his artillery battalion skills to use in electrical engineering and business management, oh, and picked up an MBA and started work on a PhD. After almost four years in the private sector, he currently serves as a production supervisor at AGCO, which manufactures tractors and all manner of farming-related “Serious Machinery” in Hesston, KS, a little ways north of Wichita.

I honestly couldn’t have written a better profile for the first openly-gay member of the state Legislature…and I’m, like, a really good writer. As a campaigner, the West Point discipline has him canvassing and campaigning with precision, and it also neutralizes much of the potential antipathy from the D by his name and the rainbow in his heart. He works at an actual factory (Labor) but as a managerial type (Business) who is soon to have a PhD (Education/Professionals). Sure, he’s gay (LGBT) but he was a soldier first (Military). Oh, and did I mention he manufactures tractors and farming equipment (Farmers).

Let’s see…Labor, Business, Professionals, LGBT, Military, and Farmers….that’s not just a Democratic coalition that can win in Kansas, that’s a Democratic coalition that can wipe the floor with its opponents in Kansas. Basically, Dan Manning has the Kansas version of the profile Harvey Milk wished he’d had. Look, I don’t invoke the de-facto Gay MLK lightly (well, he was a politician, so maybe Milk is the…Gay Obama?). But it’s true. Manning has the profile to do really, really well in politics. And dude’s just 30, and if he wins this year, as I think he probably will in the end, he could be … is… someone good.

THE OPPONENT:

Dan Manning’s opponent is state Rep. Brenda Landwehr, who has been in the Legislature since 1995 and now serves as the Health & Human Services Chair. Her biggest donor? The KS Hospital Association, of course, followed immediately by Koch Industries, then the KS Bankers Association, rounded off by everyone’s favorite small business killer: Wal-Mart. Quite a Top 4, even for a hard-right Republican…

While she has a long anti-gay, anti-moderate, anti-anything-but-super-conservative record, Landwehr’s latest media buzz was as an attack dog against fellow state Rep. Raj Goyle, the well-funded Democrat making a strong bid to become Wichita’s Congressman. She made her forceful comments as a main backer of Mike Pompeo at a Republican legislator unity rally that turned out to be not-so-united when Pompeo’s primary rival, moderate state Sen. Jean Schodorf, was a no-show. Source: Wichita Eagle

If moderate Republicans don’t come home to Pompeo (and his ineffectual campaign doesn’t seem to be helping), Kansas could end up electing an Indian-American Democrat to a R+14 seat.

Yes, Pompeo may yet win the KS-04 seat thanks to its ruby red nature, but he is not particularly popular outside of the Koch set. The 91st, on the other hand, the one Brenda Landwehr actually has to run in, is decidedly swingy–purple, if you will.  Let’s explore it!

THE BATTLEFIELD:

Welcome to Wichita, Kansas, the biggest city in the state we all think of as “Home” (thanks Wizard of Oz!). In the 91st district, you’ve got partisan demographics that are pretty close to those statewide.

Partisan Makeup of Kansas: 43.5R/27D/28.6U

Partisan Makeup of the 91st District:  42R/31D/26.4U

As you can see on the District Map, the 91st is located in the northern reaches of the city of Wichita. Most of these areas are relatively new-ish and decidedly middle-class. They’re mostly the type of folks who are scrupulous with their yards, and picky with their political yard signs.

Finally, a note to Karl Rove wannabes: the death threat is not an effective political weapon. It will almost certainly backfire…especially when you try it on a West Point graduate who knows how to handle a gun.

Please help win this Essential Race for Kansas, America, rainbows, puppies, children, veterans and the American Way:

Donate to Dan Manning by clicking here.

Please help. Seriously. Please. Pretty please with a cherry on top. Please. Dan Manning actually has “first LGBT President of the United States” potential. Do it for America.

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos (10/16-17, likely voters):

Jon Hulburd (D): 46

Ben Quayle (R): 44

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Whoa. When Republicans have someone like Raul Grijalva on his heels but are having trouble locking down this conservative Phoenix-area district, you know that frat boy Ben Quayle has some serious residual issues leftover from his primary performance — a performance that was catastrophic in every way, except for the fact that he actually won over a highly fractured field. Indeed, PPP finds Quayle’s favorables at an extremely bruised 34-52 (compared to 33-20 for Hulburd). Hulburd wins moderates by 66-27, independents by 50-36, and even takes away 18% of Republicans.

Looks like you can mark this one down on the (very) small list of GOP-held House seats that Republicans actually should be concerned about.

With only two weeks remaining, it’s time for another round of updates to our Senate, Gubernatorial, and House ratings. With DCCC triage in full effect, giving us a clear picture of who’s on the very wrong side of the House firewall, you may notice that this is the first time we’ve added House incumbents to the “Lean Republican” column. (In an interesting bit of symmetry, FL-24 was also the first race in 2008 where we dropped an incumbent — Tom Feeney — to “Lean D,” also about two weeks prior to the election.)

• DE-Sen: Lean D to Likely D
• FL-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
• OH-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
• WI-Sen: Tossup to Lean R

• IL-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
• ME-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
• NH-Gov: Likely D to Lean D
• SC-Gov: Likely R to Lean R

• AR-04: Safe D to Likely D
• AZ-07: Safe D to Tossup
• AZ-08: Lean D to Tossup
• CA-11: Lean D to Tossup
• CA-20: Likely D to Lean D
• FL-24: Tossup to Lean R
• GA-08: Lean D to Tossup
• ID-01: Tossup to Lean D
• IL-11: Tossup to Lean R
• IL-17: Lean D to Tossup
• IN-08: Lean R to Likely R
• MA-04: Safe D to Likely D
• MI-15: Safe D to Likely D
• MN-08: Safe D to Likely D
• MS-04: Likely D to Lean D
• NC-08: Lean D to Tossup
• NJ-12: Likely D to Lean D
• NY-04: Safe D to Likely D
• NY-22: Safe D to Likely D
• OH-01: Tossup to Lean R
• OH-06: Likely D to Lean D
• OH-09: Likely D to Safe D
• OH-13: Tossup to Lean D
• OH-15: Tossup to Lean R
• OR-04: Safe D to Likely D
• PA-03: Tossup to Lean R
• PA-07: Lean R to Tossup
• TX-17: Tossup to Lean R
• WA-08: Likely R to Lean R

28 of these changes favor Republicans; 9 races (DE-Sen, 3 of the 4 gubernatorial races, and 5 House races, including the Ohio implosion duo) have moved in the Democratic direction.

CO-Sen: In a debate on Meet the Press with Sen. Michael Bennet, GOPer Ken Buck said he thinks that being gay is a choice – and then followed up by saying, “I think that birth has an influence over it, like alcoholism and some other things, but I think that basically you have a choice.”

NH-Sen: This is not so helpful: Paul Hodes’s former pollster, Mountain West Research, just agreed to pay New Hampshire a $20K fine for failing to comply with state law regarding a negative message-testing poll they did on behalf of Hodes this past summer. The AP calls it “push polling,” but it quite clearly wasn’t, given the small number of respondents involved, and also the timing (push polling is something you do to mass numbers of people right before election day). It seems like Mountain West’s sin was failing to identify the poll’s sponsor (i.e., Hodes) on their calls.

PA-Sen: CQ says that the DSCC has spent $4.7 million in Pennsylvania to date (not include the $1.2 million they shelled out to help Arlen Specter), and Dems expect to spend $9 million before all is said and done, making it the biggest commitment in the nation. Thanks to independent groups, the NRSC has only spent about $600K here so far.

WV-Sen: This has already come up on the campaign trail (Joe Manchin’s mentioned it in ads, for instance), but now it’s official: John Raese’s wife has been formally purged from the West Virginia voting rolls – because she’s also registered to vote in Florida, where she lives. (Ooh! Voter fraud!) And while we’re on the topic, Raese probably wishes that Rush Limbaugh would shut his big fat mouth. This is how Big Pharma described the senate candidate while endorsing him on his show:

“Full disclosure, I happen to know John Raese. He is a part-time resident here in Palm Beach and he has a locker right across the, right across the bench from me at a prominent local club. I’ve never played golf with him, but I’ve met him.”

As the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Daniel Malloy says, “The image of Raese rubbing elbows with Rush at a swank Palm Beach country club is not one that the Raese campaign must welcome right now.”

AZ-07: I wonder what guys like Steve Driehaus have to think when they get told to walk the plank while veterans in much bluer districts who are victims only of their own self-inflicted wounds – oh, such as, I dunno, Raul Grijalva – get help airlifted in from above. Anyhow, the DCCC must clearly sense trouble in AZ’s 7th CD, since they’ve gone up on the air here with an ad hitting Ruth McClung for supporting a 23% national sales tax.

FL-22: You may have seen the news that GOPer Allen West has a disturbingly close relationship with a notorious gang of violent criminals known as the Outlaws Motorcycle Club. The best part now, though, is West’s denial that he has any affiliation with the group, in which he channels a sort of Bizarro Groucho Marx. The Outlaws, you see, “do not accept blacks, Jews or gays.” Phew!

NC-11: Big Dog alert! Bill Clinton is doing a rally for Heath Shuler in Asheville on Thursday.

NY-22: It may not be quite Paul LePage levels, but Maurice Hinchey probably wishes he hadn’t gotten so testy with a reporter who asked him questions about whether he had a financial interest in a local development project. On tape, you can see Hinchey tell William Kemble that he is “full of baloney” and to “shut up.” After the cameras stopped rolling, though, Hinchey apparently “made a beeline for Kemble and got in his face.” Crew for local station YNN said they “saw the congressman poke Kemble in the chest aggressively.”

TN-08: Though Ron Johnson’s received probably the most attention in recent months, I think Steve Fincher may be this cycle’s granddaddy for bailouts-for-me-but-not-for-thee Republicanism. As an agribusiness kingpin, he’s raked in millions in federal farm subsidies. Now it turns out that he also received a state grant just last year – and may have even violated the terms of that grant by selling the equipment it helped him buy too quickly.

TX-17: It looks like Bill Flores is going to win the Tommy Thompson Award for Crazy Beliefs Blamed on Bodily Functions. You may recall that Thompson (by far my favorite Republican candidate to run in the last GOP presidential primary) claimed that a full bladder caused him to say he favored allowing employers to fire gay employees during a debate in 2007. Now Flores wants backsies for telling an interviewer that he was not opposed to raising the Social Security retirement age… because he had a headache.

DCCC/NRCC: CQ says that so far, the NRCC has spent $31 million on independent expenditures this cycle, while the D-Trip has spent $22 mil.

Senate: Politico has a roundup of senate fundraising numbers.

SSP TV:

• PA-Sen: It’s been a while, but at long last, we finally have another poop-themed ad, thanks to Joe Sestak
• KY-Sen: I worship you, Aqua Buddha! (Apparently this ad has turned Rand Paul into a WATB)
• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes hits Nathan Deal for once having tried to weaken the state’s rape shield law; the RGA uses a clip of Roy Barnes dismissing the deaths of two children in state custody: “Out of 20,000 children, you’re going to have children die every day.”
• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo whacks Carl Paladino on abortion rights
• CA-03: Karl Rove’s American Crossroads attacks Ami Bera for supporting “Obamacare”
• CA-20: The DCCC says Republican Andy Vidak wants to cut federal funding for water projects (apparently a big issue in this district)
• NY-04: Carolyn McCarthy’s first spot of the cycle touts her focus on job creation
• OH-02: Dem Surya Yalamanchili says his ad cost him only $20 to make
• TX-27: In a much-less-good-than-it-could-have-been ad, Rep. Solomon Ortiz features that goofy photo of Blake Farenthold in his pajamas with a scantily clad woman
• VA-01: Dem Krystal Ball introduces herself with her first ad

All I can say is, WTF?

Alaska Dispatch founder and editor Tony Hopfinger was grabbed and handcuffed by a private security detail working for U.S. Senate candidate Joe Miller on Sunday while trying to ask the Fairbanks Republican questions following a town hall meeting at Central Middle School in Anchorage on Sunday.

Hopfinger was reportedly pressing Miller on whether the candidate had ever been reprimanded for politicking while working at the Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2008. Alaska Dispatch and other media have sued for the release of records related Miller’s time at the borough. Various accounts of what happened next generally agree on this course of events:

• Two or three bodyguards told Hopfinger to stop asking questions and to leave the building.
• Hopfinger continued to ask questions while apparently videotaping the candidate.
• Bodyguards told him that if he persisted they would arrest him for trespassing, but refused to identify themselves to Hopfinger.
• Hopfinger asked why he was trespassing, as the event was at a public school. Seconds later, he was then put in arm-bar and later handcuffed and sequestered at one end of a hallway for at least 30 minutes. He was told, “You’re under arrest.”
• Anchorage Police arrived on the scene shortly after.

A later update says that Hopfinger was released after police arrived. Seriously, this is the kind of freaky Mad Max-style shit that is what we can expect in Joe Miller’s America.

UPDATE: More here from the ADN.

LATER UPDATE: Joe Miller has his version of events. See also the HQ of Miller’s security firm – particularly the poster they feature in the window.

AK-Sen: National Research, Inc. for the Club for Growth (10/8-9, likely voters):

Scott McAdams (D): 27

Lisa Murkowski (WI-inc): 31

Joe Miller (R): 33

(MoE: ±4.9%)

CA-Sen, CA-Gov, Prop 23: Ipsos for Reuters (10/12-14, likely voters, 10/2-4 in parens):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (49)

Carly Fiorina (R): 45 (45)

Jerry Brown (D): 48 (50)

Meg Whitman (R): 44 (43)

Yes on 23: 35

No on 23: 46

(MoE: ±4.6%)

CT-Gov: Quinnipiac (10/7-11, likely voters, 9/21-26 in parens):

Dan Malloy (D): 49 (45)

Tom Foley (R): 42 (42)

(MoE: ±2.9%)

FL-Gov: Susquehanna for Sunshine State News (10/12-13, likely voters, 9/28-10/3 in parens):

Alex Sink (D): 48 (44)

Rick Scott (R): 44 (50)

(MoE: ±2.2%)

HI-Gov: Aloha Vote for Honolulu Civil Beat (10/11, likely voters):

Neil Abercrombie (D): 47

Duke Aiona (R): 44

(MoE: ±2.9%)

KS-Sen, KS-Gov: Survey USA for KWCH-TV (10/10-12, likely voters, 9/14-16 in parens):

Tom Holland (D): 32 (32)

Sam Brownback (R): 60 (59)

Andrew Gray (L): 3 (3)

Ken Cannon (Ref): 4 (4)

Lisa Johnston (D): 27 (24)

Jerry Moran (R): 67 (66)

Michael Dann (L): 2 (2)

Joe Bellis (Ref): 3 (5)

(MoE: ±4%)

For SoS, Dems trail 35-53; for State Treasurer, it’s 39-55. For Attorney General, appointed Dem Steve Six trails Derek Schmidt 40-48.

MA-Gov: Suffolk University (10/10-12, registered voters, 9/14-16 in parens):

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 46 (41)

Charlie Baker (R): 39 (34)

Tim Cahill (I): 10 (14)

Jill Stein (G): 1 (4)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

ME-Gov: Critical Insights for Maine Today Media (10/10-11, likely voters, 9/27 in parens):

Libby Mitchell (D): 29 (33)

Paul LePage (R): 34 (33)

Eliot Cutler (I): 13 (10)

Shawn Moody (I): 7 (6)

Kevin Scott (I): 1 (-)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

MN-Gov: SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 42 (38)

Tom Emmer (R): 37 (36)

Tom Horner (IP): 14 (18)

Other: 3 (5)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

NH-Sen: University of New Hampshire (10/7-12, likely voters, 9/23-29 in parens):

Paul Hodes (D): 35 (35)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 50 (50)

Other: 3 (2)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

NV-Sen, NV-Gov: Mason–Dixon for the LVRJ (10/11-12, likely voters, 9/20-22 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 45 (43)

Sharron Angle (R): 47 (43)

Other: 2 (2)

NOTA: 2 (4)

Rory Reid (D): 37 (37)

Brian Sandoval (R): 52 (51)

Other: 2 (3)

NOTA: 1 (2)

(MoE: ±4%)

NV-Gov: Public Policy Polling (10/7-9, likely voters, July in parens):

Rory Reid (D): 43 (38)

Brian Sandoval (R): 52 (52)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

NV-Gov: Suffolk University (10/8-11, likely voters, in parens):

Rory Reid (D): 39

Brian Sandoval (R): 50

Other: 2

NOTA: 3

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Bonus findings: Incumbent LG Brian Krolicki (R) leads Dem Jessica Sferrazza 42-30, Dem SoS Ross Miller leads 40-24, Dem Treasurer Kate Marshall trails 33-38, and Dem Controller Kim Wallin leads 31-26.

NY-Gov, NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B: SurveyUSA for WABC-TV, WHEC-TV, and WNYT-TV (10/11-13, likely voters, in parens):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 59 (57)

Carl Paladino (R): 33 (34)

Other: 6 (5)

Chuck Schumer (D): 63 (60)

Jay Townsend (R): 30 (30)

Other: 4 (6)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 54 (54)

Joe DioGuardi (R): 36 (35)

Other: 7 (8)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Bonus finding: Manhattan/Bronx state Senator Eric Schneiderman (D) leads Staten Island DA Dan Donovan (R) for Attorney General 44-40, down from 46-40 a week ago.

OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Univ. of Cincinnati for the Ohio Poll(10/8-13, likely voters, 9/16-20 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 36 (40)

Rob Portman (R): 58 (55)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 43 (45)

John Kasich (R): 51 (49)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

OK-Sen: Sooner Poll (10/3-7, likely voters):

Jim Rogers (D): 22

Tom Coburn (R-inc): 62

Other: 2

(MoE: ±5.2%)

Other results here find the GOP leading for all statewide offices: 40-28 for LG, 50-30 for Attorney General, 41-35 for Insurance Commissioner, 45-31 for Treasurer, 35-32 for State Superintendent, 44-33 for Labor Commissioner, and 41-35 for Auditor/Inspector. Dems had held most of these offices, if you’ll recall.

OR-Gov, OR-Sen: SurveyUSA for KATU-TV (10/12-14, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):

John Kitzhaber (D): 46 (43)

Chris Dudley (R): 45 (49)

Greg Kord (C): 4 (3)

Wes Wagner (L): 3 (2)

Ron Wyden (D-inc): 56 (54)

Jim Huffman (R): 34 (38)

Bruce Cronk (WF): 2 (3)

Marc Delphine (L): 2 (1)

Rick Staggenborg (P): 2 (0)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

PA-Gov: Magellan (10/10, likely voters, 9/21 in parens):

Dan Onorato (D): 38 (38)

Tom Corbett (R): 48 (50)

(MoE: ±2.3%)

VT-Sen, VT-Gov, VT-AL: Mason-Dixon for Vermont Public Radio (10/11-13, registered voters):

Patrick Leahy (D-inc): 62

Len Britton (R): 27

Other: 4

Peter Shumlin (D): 43

Brian Dubie (R): 44

Other: 5

Peter Welch (D): 61

Paul Beaudry (R): 25

Other: 4

(MoE: ±4%)

WA-Sen: Washington Poll (10/5-14, registered voters, in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 50

Dino Rossi (R): 42

(MoE: ±4.3%)

WA-Sen: SurveyUSA for KING-TV (10/11-14, likely voters, in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 50 (50)

Dino Rossi (R): 47 (48)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

This is the third in my five-week series focusing on House independent expenditures and what they tell us about the races.  This one should be much better than the previous ones because I have now taken into account not just whether the party committees are spending in a particular district, but how much and for how long.  The Republicans have relatively few seats in the bag compared to the apocalyptic conventional wisdom that this is the mother of all wave elections.  I would generously give them 17 – all of the ones listed in the first two categories below.  At the same time, the Republicans have genuinely put a lot of seats in play.  One or both parties has made I.E.’s in 73 districts – 68 Democratic and 5 Republican.  That is the problem for the Democrats – a broad playing field that is modestly expanding week by week.  The problem for the Republicans though, which will probably keep them from running up huge numbers, is that they are bogged down in pitch battles over seats that were seen as goners according to the early conventional wisdom (MD-01, MS-01, NM-02, and VA-05 to name a few).  Republicans are spending hundreds of thousands weekly on these types of districts.  The fact that these deeply endangered Democratic incumbents have refused to say die two weeks out is good news for the Democrats, as it focuses resources on those races instead of broadening the playing field even further.  All in all, I expect Republicans to take the House with a net gain of 40-55 seats.  I would love to be pleasantly surprised, but I don’t expect to be.  In any event, here is your weekly I.E. analysis:

Goners (9D, 2R)

AR-02 – Nothing from either side.

DE-AL – Nothing from either side.

IL-11 – DCCC has done nothing.  NRCC has been spending about $30K per week.

IN-08 – DCCC has done nothing.  NRCC had been spending but stopped this week.

KS-03 – Nothing from either side.

LA-02 – Nothing from either side.

LA-03 – Nothing from either side.

NY-29 – Nothing from either side.

OH-01 – One small, token ad buy from the DCCC.  Nothing from the NRCC.

OH-15 – Same shit, different district.

TN-06 – Nothing from either side.

“I’m not quite dead yet” (10D, 0R)

CO-04 – DCCC has not spent a dime here, yet the NRCC spent over $400K this week.

FL-02 – Exactly the same story as CO-04.  

FL-08 – DCCC has done nothing, and the NRCC spent over $200K this week.  Actually surprised it was not more given Grayson’s cash advantage.  Webster may be in good shape.

FL-24 – Exactly the same story as FL-08.

NH-01 – Still nothing from the DCCC, but the NRCC is spending over $300K per week.

PA-03 – Both parties have made persistent, small ad buys here, although the DCCC’s have declined.  Does not look good for Dahlkemper.

PA-11 – The DCCC seems to be waving the white flag here, reducing its ad buy from over $100K to $34K this week.  But the NRCC is still spending over $100K per week here.

TN-08 – Herron has only a faint pulse.  DCCC has not spent a dime here, but the NRCC still spent over $100K this week, although it reduced its buy.

TX-17 – The DCCC has not spent anything here either.  The NRCC has significantly increased its ad buys for the past two weeks, but they are still slightly under $100K.

WI-08 – The DCCC spent $45K here this week, while the NRCC spent just over $100K.  Looks uphill for Kagen.

Battlegrounds (31D, 1R)

AL-02 – Both parties pumped over $200K into this district this week.  Dueling internal polls.

AR-01 – DCCC just dumped over $400K into this race this week, while the NRCC spent over $250K.  Sorry Mark Penn, but this is a low single digit race and not a 12-pointer.

AZ-01 – Both parties spent over $200K each in this district this week.  Rumors of Kirkpatrick’s demise may be exaggerated.

AZ-05 – DCCC spent about $250K in this race this week, while the NRCC went for the jugular with about $375K.  Dueling internal polls.

CO-03 – DCCC spent $350K here this week, while the NRCC spent $275K.  NRCC poll showed a tie.

FL-22 – Nothing from either side, but huge fundraising from both candidates.  Dueling internal polls.

HI-01 – DCCC spent over $160K here this week, while the NRCC spent $120K in its first week of spending to date.  Polls consistently show a very tight race.

IL-17 – DCCC spent over $300K here this week, while the NRCC spent $150K.  This one is the real deal.  Hare should win it if he can lift Dem turnout just a little.

IN-09 – DCCC spent about $275K here this week, while the NRCC spent $215K.  Classic battleground.  No polling for a while.

MA-10 – NRCC must like what they see here, busting out over $300K this week.  DCCC spent about $150K.  Still have not seen a poll of this race.

MD-01 – Both parties spent in the mid $300’s here this week.  Kratovil is doing an amazing job of hanging in there.

MI-01 – DCCC spent about $275K here this week, while the NRCC spent just over $200K.  Toss-up race, as several recent polls have shown.

MI-07 – Both parties spent just over $200K here this week.  Another pure toss-up.

MO-04 – DCCC spent $225K here this week, while the NRCC spent $280K.  Skelton seems to be in a real fight, but there is a dearth of recent polling.

MS-01 – DCCC spent about $215K here this week, while the NRCC spent nearly $300K(!).  Like Kratovil, Childers is doing a great job of pulling a Houdini act so far.

ND-AL – Look who’s back from the dead.  Pomeroy has both parties spending $200K plus this week after weeks of silence from the DCCC.

NM-02 – Both parties spent just under $200K here this week.  Like Kratovil, Teague is a red-district freshman with unusual staying power.

NV-03 – One of the hottest districts in the country.  Both parties’ expenditures approached $400K this week.  Pure toss-up.

NY-19 – Neither party has deigned to spend in the NYC media market on this one.  Public polls paint a pretty clear picture of a toss-up race.

OH-16 – Huge battleground.  DCCC spent $300K this week, while the NRCC spent over $400K.  Like Kratovil and Teague, impressive staying power for Boccieri in red district.

OH-18 – Republicans see blood in the water here, spending well over $500K here this week.  DCCC spent about $370K.  SEIU pitching in for Team Red does not help Space.

OR-05 – Both parties spent well over $200K here this week.  Sleeper battleground seat.  NRCC poll showed a virtual tie.

PA-10 – DCCC spent $140K here this week, while the NRCC spent just over $200K.  Amazing that a guy like Marino can even be in a race like this, but that’s the kind of year it is.

PA-12 – Both parties spent in the mid-to-high $200K range here this week.  Republicans only started spending here this week.  They may see an opening in spite of the May result.

SC-05 – DCCC spent $170K here this week, while the NRCC spent $200K.  Spratt is in a serious fight, but no polling for a while.

TN-04 -DCCC has only spent about $100K, but the NRCC spent a whopping $310K here this week.  DeJarlais internal shows a 5 point lead.

TX-23 – Both parties spent in the mid-$200K range this week.  This one should be very close.  Have not seen any polling for a while.

VA-02 – Both parties spent in the mid-$100K range this week.  Nye has done a good job of hanging around in this one.

VA-05 – The DCCC is still spending here, although its latest ad buy was under $100K.  The NRCC spent about $185K this week.  Periello is still very much alive, but behind.

WA-03 – DCCC spent nearly $280K this week here, while the NRCC spent over $300K.  No, Survey USA, this is not a double digit race.

WI-07 – DCCC spent $175K here this week, while the NRCC spent about $155K.  This one is probably competitive, although I suspect Duffy is ahead by single digits.

WV-01 – DCCC spent $250K here this week, while the NRCC spent nearly $200K.  Manchin’s recent surge could help Olivieri.

Head Scratchers (6D, 1R)

CA-11 – Both parties spent about $50K here this week.  I suspect McNerney is up, but as usual a Survey USA poll creates confusion.  

IL-10 – DCCC spent $125K here this week, while the NRCC spent $55K.  Mirror image partisan polls with double digit leads for either candidate have my head spinning.

NH-02 – DCCC spent a paltry $35K here last week, while the NRCC spent $128K.  My sense has been that Bass is ahead, but that screwy UNH poll has me doubting myself.

NY-23 – Doheny internal shows a double digit race in his favor.  Siena shows a double digit race in Owens’s favor.  The NRCC has spent nothing.  The DCCC spent $160K this week.  Huh?

PA-07 – Polls have this one close, but the DCCC has not spent a dime.  The NRCC has made small, sub-$50K ad buys.

PA-08 – Same shit, different district.  Cannot figure these two districts out.

SD-AL – DCCC has not spent here in spite of Noem’s enormous 3Q haul.  DCCC internal showed a double digit SHS lead, while Rasmussen showed a 3-point Noem lead.

Lean Retention (21D, 1R)

AZ-07 – DCCC spent about $60K here this week, which is disconcerting.  Until the NRCC starts spending, I will assume it is precautionary.

CA-20 – DCCC spent about $40K here this week.  I view it the same way as AZ-07.

FL-25 – DCCC spent $75K on advertising on 10/5 and cut that to $18K on 10/12.  Not a good sign for Garcia.

GA-02 – DCCC spent $150K here this week, while the NRCC spent $100K.  Does not seem like an all hands on deck effort for the Republicans yet.

GA-08 – DCCC is spending virtually nothing here, while the NRCC spent about $85K this week.  I suspect Marshall is ahead.  Otherwise, both parties would be investing more.    

IA-02 – DCCC spent over $90K here this week, which is disconcerting.  But the NRCC has not taken an interest yet, so I will wait and see.

IA-03 – DCCC spent nearly $130K here this week, but the NRCC has never engaged.

IL-14 – DCCC spent $90K here this week, while the NRCC spent just over $50K.  DCCC internal showed a double digit Foster lead.

IN-02 – DCCC spent $190K here this week, while the NRCC spent $80K.  Like GA-02, seems like a tepid level of investment from the Republicans.

KY-06 – Both parties spent about $100K here this week.  Does not seem like an inspired effort from the Republicans.

MN-01 – NRCC invested about $180K here this week after targeting the race last week, but the Dems have not yet felt the need to reciprocate.  

MS-04 – NRCC invested $176K here this week, but nothing from the Dems yet.  This one could be real trouble.  Taylor is sub-Coakley in the hubris department here.

NC-07 – NRCC has made modest, $40K weekly ad buys here.  The DCCC finally started spending this week ($75K).  Seems like McIntyre is in decent shape.

NC-08 – DCCC has invested over $200K per week here, but that is probably just to counteract Kissell’s sorry fundraising.  Nothing from the NRCC yet.

NJ-03 – DCCC has done nothing here.  Modest, sub-$30K, weekly buys from the NRCC.  Have to believe that Adler is up here.

NM-01 – DCCC spent $115K here this week, while the NRCC spent over $160K.  Could be trouble, but I will wait to see if the DCCC ups the ante next week.

NY-20 – DCCC spent $110K here this week, while the NRCC spent $172K.  Like NM-01, I will wait to see if the DCCC feels the need to pick up the pace.

NY-24 – DCCC spent nearly $200K here this week, but the NRCC only spent about $70K.  Not an inspiring effort from the NRCC here.  Arcuri is probably up.

OH-06 – DCCC spent $65K here this week, while the NRCC spent just over $100K.  Both parties seem to be just feeling out this race at this point.

OH-13 – DCCC has reduced its ad buy from $220K on 9/21 to about $65K this week.  Dems have to be feeling good about this one.

VA-09 – The DCCC has not spent here, and polls have consistently given Boucher double digit leads.  Nevertheless, the NRCC upped its ad buy to $180K this week.

VA-11 – The DCCC has been spending token amounts of money primarily on mailers.  Nothing from the NRCC.

As to all of the other races where there have been no I.E.’s on either side, including AZ-08, CA-47, CO-07, CT-04, CT-05, ID-01, KY-03, MI-09, NY-01, NY-13, PA-04, and WA-02, I am expecting retention at this point.  I’m sure there will be some surprises, but I’m not going to predict them here.  I expect the overwhelming majority of the pickups to come from races targeted by one or both party committees.

So here goes.  Per request, I’m listing a rough approximation of the seats I think Democrats are gonna lose in 17 days.  For months, I’ve tracking generic poll results showing that voters plan to dump THEIR OWN Congressman by a 2-1 margin.  All bets are off with numbers that lopsidedly rotten, and I think the candidates most likely to perish in such a landscape are the long-time incumbents who everybody believes is safe until the guillotine falls in the bottom of the ninth inning and they’re caught completely off-guard.  

For instance, Jim Oberstar in Democratic northeastern Minnesota is probably more likely to lose this cycle than is Jason Altmire of the Republican suburbs of Pittsburgh.  This is counterintuitive perhaps, but Altmire had the time and funding to define himself and his opponent while Oberstar is caught off-guard finding himself  vulnerable to an undefined generic (R) opponent.  As the campaign narrative unfolds in these final weeks and Oberstar looks increasingly out of touch, it’s my projection that he gets snuffed out.  It’s probably a longshot, but this is gonna be the year of the longshot.  In other words, there are dozens of Jim Oberstars out there who are gonna be absolutely stunned on election night.

Another example is two neighboring districts in Ohio.  Betty Sutton is now probably gonna survive in OH-13 because the profile of her race put her flawed opponent in a spotlight.  Next door in demographically similar OH-10, however, Dennis Kucinich is ripe for the picking, oblivious to the possibility of a serious challenge despite his long-standing underperformance and facing a generic Republican challenger that I’m going out on a limb and predicting take him out.

With all this in mind, I’m gonna leave a two-tiered list of Democratic casualties, starting with seats I believe have better than even odds of turning over to Republicans….followed by a list of under-the-radar seats where there’s a hypothetical level of vulnerability and where at least a few on the list have a chance of being unemployed on November 3….

First off, the seats I believe Democrats will pick up….

1. DE-AL

2. LA-02

Now for the GOP pickups….

1. AL-02

2. AZ-01

3. AZ-05

4. AZ-08

5. AR-01

6. AR-02

7. AR-04

8. CA-11

9. CA-18

10. CA-20

11. CA-47

12. CO-03

13. CO-04

14. CT-04

15. CT-05

16. FL-02

17. FL-08

18. FL-22

19. FL-24

20. GA-02

21. GA-08

22. ID-01

23. IL-08

24. IL-11

25. IL-14

26. IL-17

27. IN-02

28. IN-08

29. IN-09

30. IA-01

31. IA-02

32. KS-03

33. LA-03

34. ME-02

35. MD-01

36. MA-05

37. MA-06

38. MA-10

39. MI-01

40. MI-07

41. MI-09

42. MN-01

43. MN-08

44. MS-01

45. MS-04

46. MO-04

47. NV-03

48. NH-01

49. NH-02

50. NJ-03

51. NJ-12

52. NM-01

53. NM-02

54. NY-02

55. NY-04

56. NY-09

57. NY-19

58. NY-22

59. NY-23

60. NY-24

61. NY-25

62. NY-29

63. NC-02

64. NC-07

65. NC-08

66. NC-11

67. ND-AL

68. OH-01

69. OH-10

70. OH-15

71. OH-16

72. OH-18

73. OR-04

74. OR-05

75. PA-03

76. PA-07

77. PA-08

78. PA-10

79. PA-11

80. PA-12

81. SC-05

82. SD-AL

83. TN-04

84. TN-06

85. TN-08

86. TX-17

87. TX-23

88. VA-02

89. VA-05

90. WA-02

91. WA-03

92. WV-01

93. WI-03

94. WI-07

95. WI-08

Without breaking a sweat, I’ve found 95 seats that strike me as 50% or better odds of turning for a net GOP gain of 93, based on either haunting polls…or haunting polls in nearby and demographically similar districts.  As I’ve said before, there are probably dozens more seats out there where the incumbent is poised to lose and nobody has even considered him or her vulnerable, and several of which may be revealed in the next 10 days or so.  They’ll be met with mocking skepticism by most….until election night when voters prove the polls true.  Here are a few seats that might fit this bill.  I’d bet money at least a couple of these seats flip, even though without further information I’ll keep them in the Democratic fold….

CA-10, CA-36, CA-38, CA-39, CO-07, GA-12, IL-03, IN-07, MA-03, MI-05, MI-12, MI-15, MS-02, MO-03, NV-01, NJ-06, NJ-09, NY-18, NY-27, NY-28, NC-13, OR-01, PA-13, TN-05, TX-27, UT-02, WA-01, WA-06, and WA-09.

Okay, throw your tomatoes at me now.  Just out of curiosity, what’s the threshold of lost seats where my dire predictions will be vindicated from “chump” territory?  Over 60?  70?