Month: November 2010

Why prognosticate an election happening in a day, when I could predict an election happening a year and a day from now?!

In 2011, there are 3 gubernatorial races occuring: A Republican-held open seat in Mississippi (Barbour’s got term limits), A Republican incumbent running for re-election in Louisiana (Jindal), and a Dem. incumbent running for reelection (Beshear).

LA-GOV: Likely Republican: Jindal’s got a lot of dough and Louisiana’s turning red fast. A good candidate could make things interesting

MS-GOV: Likely R: in 2007, Barbour won by 16 points against an inexperienced opponent. Dems have a decent bench here, and could make it competitive.

KY-GOV: Toss-up/ Lean D: Beshear is up by 5 according to polls, but the rust belt’s moving away from us fast.

These races havn’t got any attention- for good reasons-but a victory in KY and MS could help drive the narrative for dems in 2012.

Bonus: the VA state senate is a complete toss-up, and the most interesting race in 2011

In many states, redistricting control is pre-determined or essentially a foregone conclusion.  I count 37 states in that category.

Note: In the lists below, the number in parentheses next to each state is the number of districts predicted for 2012 by Election Data Services:

http://www.electiondataservice…

Single District States:

Alaska (1)

Delaware (1)

Montana (1)

North Dakota (1)

South Dakota (1)

Vermont (1)

Wyoming (1)

Existing Commissions:

Arizona (9)

Hawaii (2)

Idaho (2)

New Jersey (12)

Washington (10)

(note: Iowa is discussed below)

New Commission:

California (53) – Prop. 20 will pass

Democratic control:

Arkansas (4) – Beebe will win easily

Maryland (8) – O’Malley has double-digit lead

Massachusetts (9) – Every poll has Patrick ahead by a small but consistent margin

West Virginia (3) – State Senate President Tomblin (D) would become acting Governor if Manchin wins his Senate race

Split control:

Kentucky (6) – State Senate will stay Republican

Louisiana (6) – No legislative elections this year

Maine (2) – Governor will be R or I, but Dems will keep control of the State House (currently 95D-55R)

Mississippi (4) – No legislative elections this year

Missouri (9) Nixon with Republican legislature

Nevada (3) – Sandoval with Democratic Assembly and probably a Democratic State Senate (currently 12D-9R) as well

New Hampshire (2) – Lynch with Republican legislature

New Mexico (3) – Martinez with Democratic legislature

Rhode Island (2) – Chafee with Democratic legislature

Virginia (11) – Luckily, no state legislative elections this year so Dems will keep their 22-18 State Senate majority

Republican control:

Georgia (14) – Barnes started out strong but has faded

Indiana (9) – R’s already have control because of how the committe members are selected, but will also win the State House

Kansas (4) – Kansas is not going to get well any time soon

Nebraska (3) – non-partisan legislature in name only; it is controlled by Republicans

Oklahoma (5) – Gov race is a blowout

Pennsylvania (18) – D’s only have 104-99 control of State House and that will not hold up

South Carolina (7) – Shaheen was our only shot

Tennessee (9) – Total wipeout at all levels

Texas (36) – The best to hope for is Dems to still have some influence in the State House based on their coalition with the Speaker

Utah (4) – About as Safe R as you can get

That leaves 13 states that are up for grabs tomorrow.  Here is how I see those playing out:

Democratic control:

Minnesota (8) – Narrow Dayton win (don’t worry Mark) and D’s hold the legislature where they have plenty of room to absorb any losses that may occur

Oregon (5) – Kitzhaber appears to be slightly ahead and Dems will narrowly keep their majority in the State Senate (currently 18D-12R) and House (36D-24R)

Split control:

Colorado (7) – Hickenlooper wins but Republicans take at least one legislative chamber (this will be very close and could end up a Dem control state)

Connecticut (5) – It’s all up to the Governor’s race and Foley seems to have the momentum.  D control of the legislature is not in doubt.

Florida (27) – Sink will squeak by in a photo finish.  Also, Amendment 6 (non-partisan guidelines for drawing Congressional maps) will just get the 60% necessary to pass.  This is the most important state to watch tomorrow, because if Sink and Amendment 6 both fail, Republicans will have carte blanche

Illinois (18) – Likely R Gov since Quinn cannot gain any traction but also very likely D hold of State Senate and House

Iowa (4) – In addition to winning the Governor’s race, R’s have a decent shot at the State House (now 56D-44R) and a very outside shot at the State Senate (now 32D-18R).  Iowa has a Commission but the legislature must approve the maps.

Michigan (14) – Dems hold on, barely in the State House (currently 65D-43R). Hopefully, Snyder’s coattails are not too much to overcome

New York (27) – Dems narrowly lose control of the State Senate (currently 32D-30R) since they would have to run the table on all the close races

North Carolina (13) – Both chambers are equally in danger of flipping to the Republicans so let’s split the difference and say one flips and the other doesn’t.  The Gov cannot veto the maps, so legislative control is the whole ballgame

Republican control:

Alabama (7) – The Dems best chance to hold is in the State House (60D-45R), but special elections over the past year have shown that Alabama had already been trending heavily Republican and that trend will continue

Ohio (16) – Strickland could pull it out, but right now Kasich is a very narrow favorite.  The State House (53D-46R) contains too many R targets for the Dems to fight off

Wisconsin (8) – Dems would go from controlling all 3 pillars to 0.  There is still a chance, though, that they could hold onto either the State Senate (18D-15R) or House (52D-46R)

So, adding everything up, here is what I come up with:

Commissions: 88 districts

Single district states: 7 districts

Democratic control: 37 districts

Split control: 163 districts

Republican control: 140 districts

Things could have been much better with just California and New York moving to the Dem side (a total of 80 districts), but that appears not to be in the cards.

For more details, a useful reference is the Governing.com article (released today) rating the legislative races, chamber by chamber.:

http://www.governing.com/blogs…

Cross posted at my blog http://frogandturtle.blogspot…. which you should visit for more election analysis.

Pundits always say that when election day is really close, some candidates start pulling away from the opponent. In West Virginia, we are seeing that. Joe Manchin (D) was in a close race with John Raese (R) but Manchin retrieved his lead when Raese made some gaffes such as looking for “hicky” people in an ad and then the controversy of his house in Florida (his wife is not even registered to vote in West Virginia.) Not all tossup races though have an incumbent pulling away in then end. In Pennsylvania, Toomey is leading by about 3 and his seems to have stopped Sestak’s surge. Sources on the ground in Philadelphia though tell me that the GOTV operation there is in full swing for Sestak and if a larger than expected turnout occurs in Philadelphia, Sestak will be much closer and maybe win. Races though that have stayed as pure tossups include Illinois, Colorado, Washington and Nevada. In Illinois, Mark Kirk (R) seems to be gaining a few points but the Obama rally may have woken up the base enough to beat him. Colorado has an interesting race where Michael Bennett (D) is winning because he is pushing a woman’s right to choose as a big issue and it seems to be working. Ken Buck (R) leads heavily among men while Bennett has a big lead with women. The race that should shock the pundits though is Nevada. All polls show a small Angle lead but what I see is a dead heat. The early voting in Nevada presents good results for the Democrats and people on the ground have mentioned how all the Democrats there are planning to vote.

There is one race though the Republicans must pick up to win the Senate. West Virginia and California both look stronger for the Democrats so if the Republicans want to win, they MUST win Washington State. Patti Murray (D) has put up a strong fight against Dino Rossi (R). Rossi has run statewide twice before and he lost both times. His 2004 run for Governor against Christine Greigoire (D) went into a recount. Washington is a high turnout state and some polls even suggest Republicans have less enthusiasm than Democrats. Also, cell phone only households are common in the heavily Democratic Seattle and many pollsters do not poll cellphone users. In Oregon’s Gubernatorial race, it made a difference when John Kitzhaber (D) lead by 8 points with all phone users but 4 points with landlines only. Anyway, these Senate rankings here are my last ones before election day. Races such as California and West Virginia shift more towards the Democrats while Illinois shifts towards the Republicans (but it is still tossup in my book.) The Republicans are looking to pick up 7-9 seats because I do not see Rossi winning. Also, the names in parentheses are the names of the candidate from the incumbent party.  Bolded races mean the race may switch parties. Anyway, here are the rankings:

Safe D (6 seats)

Delaware (Chris Coons) Has O’Donnell ever had a shot here?

Hawaii (Daniel Inoyue) He has been in Senate since 1962 and he is staying.

Maryland (Barbara Mikulski) No problem in this heavily Democratic state.

New York A(Charles Schumer) I do not think anyone can beat him.

New York B (Kristen Gillibrand) A few polls showed a tight race in September but not anymore.

Vermont (Patrick Leahy) Another easy Democratic hold.

Likely D (1 seat)

Connecticut (Richard Blumenthal) Linda McMahon (R) is spending like Meg Whitman but Blumenthal is leading in the polls.

Lean D (3 seats)

California (Barbara Boxer) Polls showed a tightening race but Boxer’s strong campaigning keeps it Democratic.

Washington (Patti Murray) She seems to have her lead back but will it stay?

West Virginia (Joe Manchin) After proving how out of touch he is with West Virginia, John Raese (R) is slipping in the polls.

Tossup (3 seats)

Colorado (Michael Bennett) PPP showed Ken Buck (R) up one point, showing how this race is a DEAD HEAT.

Illinois (Alexi Giannoulis) Polls show Kirk leading by 4 but Chicago has strong GOTV.

Nevada (Harry Reid) Polls show Angle with a small lead here but early voting looks good for Reid.

Lean Republican (5 seats)

Alaska (Joe Miller) The extremist Joe Miller (R) is slipping but write in Lisa Murkwski Murkowski (R) looks like she will win instead.

Kentucky (Rand Paul) Jack Conway (D) is a strong candidate but the Aqua Buddha ad sent him down.

New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte) New Hampshire has been trending towards the Democrats recently but now it is shifting towards the Republicans.

Pennsylvania (Joe Sestak) Democrats were hoping for a surprise pickup here but polls show Toomey with a 5 point lead. GOTV probably cannot narrow that gap.

Wisconsin (Russ Feingold) Wisconsin always seem to come home to its Democrats but Feingold was too independent for the base.

Likely Republican (8 seats)

Arizona (John McCain) Rodney Glassman (D) is another good candidate in a bad cycle.

Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln) The South keeps trending Republican and John Boozmen (R) should be Arkansas’s next Senator.

Florida (Marco Rubio) Saying he will caucus with the Democrats if elected has not saved Charlie Crist (I) against Marco Rubio.

Indiana (Brad Ellsworth) Ellsworth could have been a strong candidate and the NRA endorsement probably will not save him against Dan Coats (R)

Louisiana (David Vitter) Charlie Melancon (D) did well with the oil spill and Vitter saw D.C Madam but family values are not a big issue this year.

Missouri (Roy Blunt) Robin Carnahan (D) is a good candidate but Obama’s unpopularity here is bringing her down.

North Carolina (Richard Burr) No Senator has held this seat for more than one term since 1976. Elaine Marshall (D) cannot continue the tradition.

Ohio (Rob Portman) At least Lee Fisher (D) knew he would not win so he gave $300,000 to Ohio Democrats.

Safe Republican: (8 seats)

Alabama (Richard Shelby) Was this race ever on your radar? It was not on mine.

Georgia (Johnny Isakson) Michael Thurmond (D) is a reasonable candidate in the wrong year.

Idaho (Mike Crapo) Not much to say here.

Kansas (Jerry Moran) Democrats can win here but definitely NOT this year.

North Dakota (John Hooeven) Democrats who are popular with constituents can win easily in North Dakota. So can Republicans.

Oklahoma (Tom Coburn) People talk about conservatives overrunning the Senate this year. This one is already in.

South Carolina (Jim DeMint) The Democrats nominated the worst candidate possible against the teabagger king.

South Dakota (John Thune) No challenge at all.

Do you agree or disagree with the rankings? Do you have any you want to share? Feel free to comment.

Making predictions about elections is pretty fun, you could say. I've been trying to since 2006, and I haven't really improved at it at all. But this time, I'm going to put all of my calls down in one place, so that way I can't change them later and tell people I totally saw Lee Terry's/John Yarmuth's/etc SHOCKING UPSET LOSS coming.

I'm going to split these into two different scenarios, one of which I'll call the “Okay” scenario and one of which I'll call the “Great Republican Tea Avalanche of 2010” scenario, since that sounds pretty impressive. And because there's all sorts of polls floating around that probably are less accurate than the results I would get by calling people in the phone book at random. Yeah, guy who says he's 1 point behind Bennie Thompson, that's your internal I'm talking about. Anyways, even though a lot of these here polls are total garbage, I don't feel comfortable ruling out the possibility of a large Republican win.

As for the possibility of a weaker Republican win than expected, I'm defining a “good night” for the Dems purely on a selfish basis, and I wouldn't be surprised if other folks here are too. If Baron Hill, Russ Feingold, and Tom Perriello make it, I'll be happy. Come up with your own “good Dem” version, people!

Let's kick things off with the really bad one first.

Great Republican Tea Avalanche of 2010

House

Rep. Pickups

• AL-2
• AZ-1 (Rogue dentist is a pretty great phrase, I wish I had business cards that said that)
• AZ-5
• AR-1
• AR-2
• CA-11
• CO-3
• CO-4
• FL-2
• FL-8 (Whatever. I never liked Grayson anyways. He should have formed a caucus with Dan Boren.)
• FL-22
• FL-24
• GA-2
• GA-8
• ID-1 (PVI is not destiny, but Walt Minnick shouldn't make it in this kind of scenario)
• IL-11
• IL-14
• IL-17
• IN-2 (Joe Donnelly should be losing but seems to be ahead; he's screwed in a major wave)
• IN-8
• IN-9 (I can only expect Mike Sodrel to switch parties and campaign for the Dem nom in 2012)
• KS-3
• IA-2
• KY-6 (John Yarmuth will be pretty lonely)
• LA-3
• MD-1
• MA-10 (I hesitate to add this one even if it's a good election for the Republicans; Scott Brown or not, I think their strength in MA is exaggerated)
• MI-1 (Dan Benishek and Larry Bucshon are the go-to guys for a Republican rebuttal if Pres. Obama gives any more speeches about healthcare)
• MI-7
• MS-1 (Even the power of Travis Childers' mustache cannot repel firepower of this magnitude)
• MS-4 (Gene Taylor gets more time to work on figuring out the many differences between chocolate milk and oil slicks)
• NV-3 (Regardless of the result in WA-3, it's possible at least some voters will be Giving Congress Heck)
• NH-1
• NH-2
• NJ-3 (Jon Runyan's first two policy priorities: donkeys for all homeowners and doing something about that awful Dred Scott stuff)
• NM-2
• NY-19 (something something Not Still the One joke something something)
• NY-20
• NY-23 (Congressman-elect Doug Hoffman! Oh, wait, never mind)
• NY-29
• NC-8
• NC-11 (Heh heh, just kidding)
• ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy isn't Barack Mason Pelosi, unfortunately, nobody cares)
• OH-1
• OH-6
• OH-15
• OH-16
• OH-18 (Hell of a meltdown in Ohio)
• OK-2 (Look, if we lose the House, the least the Republicans could do in return is take out Dan Boren. Nobody likes him. Nobody wants him on our dodgeball team.) 
• PA-3
• PA-7 (We'll get this one back if it's a loss this time around)
• PA-8 
• PA-10
• PA-11
• SC-5
• SD-AL
• TN-4 (God damn it, this is getting depressing)
• TN-6
• TN-8 (Saving grace: user andgarden won't have to eat his/her shoes)
• TX-17 (Even in my “Okay” version, Edwards won't make it; but I think this is going to be surprisingly close)
• TX-23
• VA-2 (Who cares? Everyone just wants to know what happens to Perriello, am I right?)
• VA-5 (Win or lose, Tom will be back.)
• WA-3 (See NV-3)
• WI-7 (Edit: Forgot to put this one in initially.)
• WI-8 (Reid Ribble. I hate alliteration.) 
• WV-1

Dem. Pickups

• DE-AL
• IL-10 (WAA polls: funny, or the funniest thing ever? I don't know.)
• LA-02 (Joe Cao should consider becoming a Democrat, or at least pulling a Linc Chafee)

Senate

Rep. Pickups

• Arkansas
• Colorado
• Illinois 
• Indiana (Dan Coats replaces Bob Bennett in the Senate Boring Old Republican Dudes Club)
• Nevada (I don't even)
• North Dakota
• Pennsylvania
• Wisconsin

Hilarious Comic Interlude You Won't Understand If You Don't Understand the Significance of the Phrase “I wonder what's for dinner?”

Russ Feingold: My friends, this peace is what all true incumbents strive for.

National Democrats: I just wonder what the Republicans are up to! 

DSCC: Senator Feingold, Ron Johnson and his minions have seized your Senate seat!

Russ Feingold: Hmm…?

Gubernatorial Elections

Rep. Pickups

• Florida (Thugs and criminals!)
• Illinois
• Iowa
• Kansas
• New Mexico
• Maine
• Michigan
• Ohio
• Oklahoma
• Oregon
• Pennsylvania
• Tennessee
• Wisconsin
• Wyoming

Dem. Pickups

• California
• Hawaii
• Minnesota

Ind. Pickups

• Rhode Island

Hey, kids, wasn't that fun? Well, not really. This next one is kind of good though. If you consider slightly less major House losses 'good', that is. 

Average Republican Wave of 2010 (Okay Scenario)

House

Rep. Pickups

• AZ-1
• AR-2
• CO-4
• FL-2
• FL-8 (Grayson wouldn't be here if not for “Taliban Dan”)
• FL-24
• GA-8 (Marshall's just in a bad district)
• IL-11
• IL-17 (Peculiar that I think Bill Foster over in the 14th has a better chance than Phil Hare)
• IN-8 (Even Dr. Steve Brule could probably win here this year as a Republican. For your health!)
• IN-9 (If Hill does win, whoever vandalized hoosierdem's lawn signs is going to be PISSED.)
• KS-3
• LA-3
• MD-1 (Kratovil still has a chance, albeit small. Remarkable.)
• MI-1
• MS-1
• NV-3 (Going to be close, but even if Reid wins I'm not sure about Titus)
• NH-1
• NH-2 (Hesitated for a long time on this one, but I just don't think Kuster pulls this off)
• NJ-3 (I wish it was goats instead of donkeys. Goats are cooler. You're not cool, Jon Runyan.)
• NM-2
• NY-19
• NY-29
• NC-8 (Kissell is too wobbly for his own good. If he does lose, he's one headache we won't have to deal with again.)
• ND-AL
• OH-01
• OH-15
• OH-18
• PA-03
• PA-07 (Hard call. A lot depends on the Senate outcome; if Sestak outperforms the polls, Lentz might pull this off.)
• PA-08 (Surprised by Murphy's sudden collapse… too surprised, in fact. Not sure about the polling here.)
• PA-10  
• PA-11 (If Paul Kanjorski manages once again to return from the dead, Lou Barletta should probably just give up on this whole politics thing and find something else to do with his time.)
• SC-5
• TN-6
• TN-8
• TX-17 (I think this will be close, as I said earlier; Flores has had a lot of missteps in the past month)
• TX-23
• VA-2
• VA-5
• WA-3 (Possible to see an upset here. Just very unlikely.)
• WI-7
• WI-8

Dem. Pickups

• DE-AL
• FL-25 (Rivera sucks that much)
• HI-1
• IL-10
• LA-02

I'm pretty bad at math, but I think this means the Republicans actually fall just short of taking the House. Maybe that means I don't know what I'm talking about. I don't know, but my gut is to go with this list. If I'm wrong, well, I'm some guy from Southern Indiana that raises chickens and thinks loud noises are funny; I have no dignity, let alone credibility or reputation to risk.

Senate

Rep. Pickups

• Arkansas
• Illinois (I don't know how this one turns out, but I'm leaning Kirk. Both of these candidates are awful.)
• Indiana
• North Dakota (If McAdams wins in Alaska, he and John Hoeven…mustache joke… something..)
• Pennsylvania (Sestak gives a scare, but not a big enough one)
• Wisconsin

Special Commentary: Dem HOLDS

• Colorado (Very close. Gut call says Bennet, he has to like that EV advantage PPP showed.)
• Nevada (If Jon Ralston is wrong, a lot of people are going to look like idiots. I already look like one, though, so I'm NOT SCARED.

Gubernatorial Elections

Rep. Pickups

• Illinois
• Iowa (Branstad gets to be a kingmaker two years from now! Or something! Sarah Palin! Breathless primary coverage! POINTLESS NOISE!)
• Kansas
• New Mexico
• Maine
• Michigan
• Oklahoma
• Pennsylvania
• Tennesseee (Basil Marceaux.com. What could have been..?)
• Wisconsin (I blame Jim Doyle.)
• Wyoming

Dem. Pickups

• California (California! Uber alles! California uber alles! The funny thing is, Jerry Brown never was President, soon or otherwise.)
• Connecticut
• Hawaii
• Florida (Nervous about this one? So am I!)
• Minnesota 
• Vermont (edit)

Ind. Pickups

• Rhode Island (Lincoln Chafee does what he wants. If you need instructions on how to be an independent, check out the enclosed instruction book.)

 I'm hoping I'm wrong and we win all of these. That'd be alright. Or some of them, I'd settle for that too. Feel free to post any thoughts or disparaging comments about my stab at predicting the future; this is my first try, so I'd appreciate the feedback.

 Also, I made sure not to forget WY-GOV, but there's probably some obvious race somewhere I forgot to add instead. 

D-held house seats:

I would be shocked if Dems held any of these: AR 2, CO 4, FL 2, FL 8, FL 24, IL 11, IN 8, KS 3, LA 3, NY 29, OH 1, OH 15, PA 3, TN 6, TN 8, TX 17. +16 R.

I would be surprised but not shocked if Dems held any of these: MD 1, MS 1, NH 1, PA 7, VA 2, VA 5, WA 3. +5.6 R if each has an 80% chance to go R.

I’d bet the Reep if I had to bet, but would not be surprised if Dems held any of these: AR 1, AZ 1, WI 7, WI 8, MI 1, PA 8, OH 16, NV 3, NM 2, SC 5, ND, GA 8, NY 20, NJ 3, CO 3, NH 2, IL 17. +10.2 R if each has a 60% chance to go R.

I’d bet the Dem if I had to bet, but would not be surprised if Reeps took any of these: AZ 5, AL 2, IL 14, NY 19, NY 23, PA 10, PA 11, SD, MI 7, WV 1, OH 18, FL 22, NC 8, IN 9, TN 4, TX 23, MS 4. +6.8 R if each has a 40% chance to go R.

I would be surprised but not shocked if Reeps took any of these: CT 4, CT 5, MN 8, IA 2, ID 1, IN 2, MO 4, NY 24, NY 25, PA 12, MI 9, AZ 8, OR 5, WA 2, NC 7, MA 10, NM 1, CA 11, CA 20, CA 22, CA 47, VA 9, VA 11, OH 6, CO 7. +5.0 R if each has a 20% chance to go R.

I would be shocked if any other Dem seats flipped. That includes NC 11 and NY 22.

R-held seats:

I would be shocked if Reeps held DE. +1 D.

I would be surprised but not shocked if Reeps held any of these: HI 1, IL 10, LA 2. +2.4 D if each has an 80% chance to go D.

I’d bet the Reep if I had to bet, but would not be surprised if Dems took FL 25. +0.4D if the Dem has a 40% shot.

I would be surprised but not shocked if Dems took WA 8 or CA 3. +0.4 D if each has a 20% chance to go D.

I would be shocked if any other Reep seats flipped.

So I have Reeps flipping an expected 43.6 seats, Dems flipping 4.2, for a net of 39.4 to the Reeps…hmm. If I had to bet I’d bet the over, as I suspect my ratings may be too favorable to Dems. I’ll just round up to 40.

Senate:

D-held seats:

ND, AR, IN 100% to flip.

WI 90%

PA 75%

IL 55%

CO 50%

NV 40%

WA 25%

WV 20%

CA 5%

CT 5%

Everything else, forget it. R +6.65.

R-held seats:

AK 20% counting Murk as a Reep.

KY 5%

MO 5%

and that’s it. D +0.3.

Net of 6.35 seats to the Reeps, call it 6 because Senate races are easier to keep track of.

So that’s a net of 40 House seats and 6 Senate seats to the Reeps.  

Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.

August, September and October rankings at links.

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

To start with it may be worth highlighting the numbers from each of those previous three diaries.

August Projection

SENATE – GOP +5

GOVERNORS – GOP +5

September Projection

SENATE – GOP +6

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

October Projection

SENATE – GOP +7

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

I call that a trend. And not a good one. Unfortunately these final projections continue that trend.

SENATE

Dem Tilt

WA (Not at all confident here. And it will probably take several weeks to see if I’m right.)

Rep Tilt

NV (Polling could well be unreliable here but I have to go with it. Hope I’m wrong.)

CO (Bennet has held on well here but I suspect the year is too much for him.)

IL (Still possible that unexpected Dem turnout can save Alexi.)

PA (Sestak has closed fast but I don’t think it will be quite enough.)

Dem Lean

CA (This one was a worry at times but I think most of us always felt confident enough.)

WV (Still say he was crazy to push for an election this year but it looks like Manchin will get away with it.)

Rep Lean  

WI (Poor campaign from Feingold but may not have mattered. His principles are both admirable and frustrating all at the same time.)

AK (Murkowski likely pulls it off but weird things happen up there. No result of the three would shock me.)

Dem Favored

DE (Chris Coons will be my favorite Dem Senate Freshman. Not that there is much competition.)

CT (Another that caused a few nerves but the fundamentals always suggested retention.)

Rep Favored

MO (The state may be trending away but I think, like many before her, Robin will be back.)

NH (Many say Hodes ran a poor campaign. I don’t buy it. The year made it impossible here with so many indies.)

KY (Paul would have won even without Conway ad own goal. At least he will be entertaining.)

OH (Nobody was beating Portman this year with all that cash.)

FL (Rubio may or may not be a national figure in waiting but Crist is certainly done on that front.)

NC (Biggest recruiting fail of the cycle but even someone like Cooper may have struggled with the environment.)

IN (Surprisingly lackluster campaign from Ellsworth.)

AR (The state has finally broken to join the rest of the region in becoming Republican.)

LA (Vitter is scum but the electorate down their think Obama is scummier.)

ND safely in the GOP column.

GOVERNORS

Dem Tilt  

OR (Kitzhaber turned things around just in time.)

VT (If Rasmussen says Shumlin is leading I’m more than happy to believe him for once.)

FL (Biggest consolation prize of the night.)

Rep Tilt

CT (Late momentum for Foley probably keeps this Republican.)

OH (Strickland may well yet pull this out. Would be a another great consolation prize.)

IL (Can turnout save Quinn? Probably not but possible.)

Dem Lean

CA (Money can’t buy you love and all that. Always preferred nostalgia myself.)

MN (I wonder what would have happened here without the perennial third wheel?)

MA (Very impressed with Patrick’s recovery. Cahill makes little difference in the end.)

HI (Abercrombie recovering from a few shaky polls.)

CO (Suspect Tancredo’s ceiling is 45 percent.)

RI (Chafee ain’t a Dem but Caprio makes him as good as.)

NH (Nature of the year that this ended as close as it did.)

Rep Lean  

PA (D, R, D, R. Like clockwork.)

TX (Very hopeful White has another run in him.)

GA (Environment means no return for Barnes despite Deal’s ethical issues.)

NM (Denish weighed down by Richardson and national environment but Martinez a good nominee anyway.)

WI (Barrett never could shake bad environment and Doyle’s unpopularity.)

SC (Tighter than many expected but Haley wins nevertheless.)

ME (Hoping Cutler can pull a shocker here but probably not.)

Dem Favored    

MD (Senator O’Malley in the future perhaps? Maybe the cabinet?)

NY (I suspect Paladino may well cost the GOP some House seats.)

AR (Beebe bucks the tide quite easily.)

Rep Favored

NV (One Reid was quite enough already.)

MI (Figure that Bernero may out perform the polls a little but still won’t get close.)

AZ (Hating Brown people saves Brewer her job.)

OK (Nobody really ever expected to be even remotely competitive here did they?)

IA (Culver may well have lost to any Republican. He never had a chance agianst Branstad.)

TN (There are many worse people than Haslam that could be winning this for Republicans.)

KS (I do wonder if this would have been competitive in a better year. Parkinson may even have had an outside shot this year.)

AL (Sparksmania didn’t quite materialize.)

ID (Otter polls surprisingly weak once again but that hardly matters up here.)

AK (Ethan Berkowitz meet Tony Knowles. You have much in common.)

WY safely in the GOP column.

Final Projection

SENATE – GOP +8

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

Bonus Projection

HOUSE – GOP +46-51

Get ready for the mother of all poll dumps:

• AK-Sen, Gov PPP:  Joe Miller (R) 37%, Scott McAdams (D) 30%, Lisa Murkowski (WI) 30%; Sean Parnell (R-inc) 54%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 43%

• AR-Gov Rasmussen: Mike Beebe (D-inc) 60%, Jim Keet (R) 38%

• AR-Sen Rasmussen: John Boozman (R) 55%, Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 36%

• AZ-Gov Rasmussen: Jan Brewer (R-inc) 53%, Terry Goddard (D) 39%

• CA-Sen, Gov PPP: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 50%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%; Jerry Brown (D) 51%, Meg Whitman (R) 46%

• CA-Sen, Gov SurveyUSA: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 46%, Carly Fiorina (R) 38%; Jerry Brown (D) 48%, Meg Whitman (D) 37%

• CA-Sen, Gov YouGov: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%; Jerry Brown (D) 51%, Meg Whitman (D) 41%

• CO-Sen Marist: Ken Buck (R) 49%, Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45%

• CO-Sen, Gov PPP: Ken Buck (R) 49%, Michael Bennet (D-inc) 48%; John Hickenlooper (D) 48%, Tom Tancredo (C) 43%, Dan Maes (R) 8%

• CO-Sen, Gov YouGov: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 49%, Ken Buck (R) 48%; John Hickenlooper (D) 47%, Tom Tancredo (C) 40%, Dan Maes (R) 9%

• CT-Sen, Gov PPP: Richard Blumenthal (D) 54%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%; Tom Foley (R) 49%, Dan Malloy (D) 47%

• CT-Sen, Gov Qpac: Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 44%; Tom Foley (R) 48%, Dan Malloy (D) 45%

• CT-Sen Rasmussen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 46%

• CT-Gov Rasmussen : Tom Foley (D) 48%, Dan Malloy (R) 46%

• CT-Sen, Gov YouGov: Richard Blumenthal (D) 52%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%; Dan Malloy (D) 48%, Tom Foley (R) 44%

• FL-Gov, Sen PPP: Alex Sink (D) 48%, Rick Scott (R) 47%; Marco Rubio (R) 47%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%, Kendrick Meek (D) 21%

• FL-Gov, Sen Quinnipiac: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 43%; Marco Rubio (R) 45%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%, Kendrick Meek (D) 18%

• FL-Sen Rasmussen: Marco Rubio (R) 50%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%, Kendrick Meek (D) 16%

• FL-Gov, Sen Susquehanna for Sunshine St. News: Alex Sink (D) 49%, Rick Scott (R) 46%; Marco Rubio (R) 48%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%, Kendrick Meek (D) 20%

• FL-Gov Univ. of S. Florida for NYT: Rick Scott (R) 44%, Alex Sink (D) 39%

• FL-Gov, Sen YouGov: Alex Sink (D) 45%, Rick Scott (R) 45%; Marco Rubio (R) 46%, Charlie Crist (I) 34%, Kendrick Meek (D) 15%

• GA-Gov Mason-Dixon: Nathan Deal (R) 47%, Roy Barnes (D) 40%, John Monds (L) 6%

• IA-Sen, Gov Selzer for Des Moines Register: Terry Branstad (R) 50%, Chet Culver (D-inc) 38%; Charles Grassley (R) 61%, Roxanne Conlin (D) 30%

• IL-Sen Anzalone-Liszt for DSCC: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 39%, Mark Kirk (R) 37%

• IL-Sen, Gov PPP: Mark Kirk (R) 46%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%; Bill Brady (R) 45%, Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40%

• IL-Sen, Gov YouGov: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 47%, Mark Kirk (R) 44%; Bill Brady (R) 47%, Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40%

• KY-Sen PPP: Rand Paul (R) 55%, Jack Conway (D) 40%

• KY-Sen YouGov: Rand Paul (R) 52%, Jack Conway (D) 44%

• MA-Gov WNEC: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 42%, Charlie Baker (R) 37%, Tim Cahill (I) 11%

• ME-Gov MPRC for Down East: Paul LePage (R) 39%, Eliot Cutler (I) 29%, Libby Mitchell (D) 24%

• ME-01 Critical Insights for Maine Today Media: Dean Scontras (R) 45%, Chellie Pingree (D-inc) 41%

• MN-Gov PPP: Mark Dayton (D) 43%, Tom Emmer (R) 40%, Tom Horner (I) 15%

• MO-Sen YouGov: Roy Blunt (R) 54%, Robin Carnahan (D) 42%

• NH-Sen, Gov PPP: Kelly Ayotte (R) 56%, Paul Hodes (D) 41%; John Lynch (D-inc) 53%, John Stephen (R) 44%

• NH-Gov Rasmussen: John Lynch (D-inc) 51%, John Stephen (R) 45%

• NH-01, 02 UNH: Frank Guinta (R) 46%, Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc) 39%; Ann McLane Kuster (D) 43%, Charlie Bass (R) 40%

• NM-Gov ABQ Journal: Susana Martinez (R) 52%, Diane Denish (D) 42%

• NV-Gov Mason-Dixon: Brian Sandoval (R) 56%, Rory Reid (D) 35%

• NV-03 Mason Dixon: Joe Heck (R) 53%, Dina Titus (D-inc) 43%

• NV-Sen, Gov PPP: Sharron Angle (R) 47%, Harry Reid (D-inc) 46%, Scott Ashjian (T) 3%; Brian Sandoval (R) 55%, Rory Reid (D) 44%

• NV-Sen, Gov YouGov: Sharron Angle (R) 49%, Harry Reid (D-inc) 47%; Brian Sandoval (R) 56%, Rory Reid (D) 40%

• NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov Siena: Andrew Cuomo (D) 58%, Carl Paladino (R) 33%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 57%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 37%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 64%, Jay Townsend (R) 32%

• NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov SurveyUSA: Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%, Carl Paladino (R) 33%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 56%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 36%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 62%, Jay Townsend (R) 32%

• NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov YouGov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 56%, Carl Paladino (R) 29%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 58%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 34%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 60%, Jay Townsend (R) 34%

• OH-Sen, Gov Columbus Dispatch (mail-in): John Kasich (R) 49%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 47%; Rob Portman (R)56%, Lee Fisher (D) 40%

• OH-Sen, Gov PPP: John Kasich (R) 49%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 48%; Rob Portman (R) 57%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

• OH-Sen, Gov Quinnipiac: John Kasich (R) 47%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 46%; Rob Portman (R) 56%, Lee Fisher (D) 37%

• OH-Sen Rasmussen: Rob Portman (R) 57%, Lee Fisher (D) 33%

• OH-Sen, Gov Univ. of Cincinnati: John Kasich (R) 52%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 48%; Rob Portman (R) 60%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

• OH-Sen, Gov YouGov: John Kasich (R) 48%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 45%; Rob Portman (R) 52%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

• PA-Sen Marist: Pat Toomey (R) 52%, Joe Sestak (D) 45%

• PA-Sen, Gov Muhlenberg: Pat Toomey (R) 48%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 49%, Dan Onorato (D) 42%

• PA-Sen, Gov PPP: Pat Toomey (R) 51%, Joe Sestak (D) 46%; Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 45%

• PA-Sen, Gov Quinnipiac: Pat Toomey (R) 50%, Joe Sestak (D) 45%; Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 42%

• PA-Gov Rasmussen: Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 43%

• PA-Sen, Gov Susquehanna for Tribune-Review: Pat Toomey (R) 46%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 48%, Dan Onorato (D) 41%

• PA-Sen, Gov YouGov: Pat Toomey (R) 48%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 51%, Dan Onorato (D) 40%

• UT-Gov, Sen, 02 Mason-Dixon: Gary Herbert (R-inc) 59%, Peter Coroon (D) 32%; Mike Lee (R) 48%, Sam Granato (D) 32%; Jim Matheson (D-inc) 48%, Morgan Philpot (R) 35%

• UT-Gov, Sen, 02 Dan Jones (for Deseret News): Gary Herbert (R-inc) 63%, Peter Coroon (D) 29%; Mike Lee (R) 57%, Sam Granato (D) 30%; Jim Matheson (D-inc) 51%, Morgan Philpot (R) 39%

• VA-05 POS for Robert Hurt: Robert Hurt (R) 45%, Tom Perriello (D) 42%

• VT-Gov Rasmussen: Peter Shumlin (D) 50%, Brian Dubie (R) 45%

• WA-Sen Fox/Pulse: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

• WA-Sen Marist: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%

• WA-Sen PPP: Dino Rossi (R) 50%, Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%

• WA-Sen YouGov: Patty Murray (D-inc) 50%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

• WI-Sen Marist: Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Russ Feingold (D-inc) 45%

• WI-Sen, Gov YouGov: Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%; Scott Walker (R) 53%, Tom Barrett (D) 43%

• WV-Sen PPP: Joe Manchin (D) 51%, John Raese (R) 46%

• WV-Sen Rasmussen: Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 46%

If Patty Murray loses tomorrow, I will never listen to another thing he has to say. His latest model has Rossi’s chances of winning at only 30 percent. But imagine my surprise when the new PPP poll came out to show Rossi ahead. Nate’s model is what I was basing my optimism on, but now who the hell knows anymore?

And it just makes me so sad to think that Ras could have been right all along. When the poll came out with Rossi up by 1 everyone laughed, well now he doesn’t look so stupid now does he ?

Barring any unexpected last-minute developments, below you will find our final gubernatorial race ratings changes and a complete chart of all of our ratings. To see how much things have changed since we issued our first ratings of the cycle in April of 2009, please click here.

Final Gubernatorial Race Ratings Changes:

• CT-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
• GA-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
• ID-Gov: Likely R to Safe R
• KS-Gov: Likely R to Safe R
• MA-Gov: Tossup to Lean D
• ME-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
• NY-Gov: Likely D to Safe D
• RI-Gov: Tossup to Lean Independent
• TN-Gov: Likely R to Safe R
• UT-Gov: Likely R to Safe R

Final Gubernatorial Race Ratings Chart:

Lean Independent:

     RI (Open)

Safe R:

     KS (Open)

     TN (Open)

     WY (Open)