Month: March 2011

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU (3/17-20, Democratic primary voters, no trendlines):

Chris Murphy (D): 40

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 38

Undecided: 21

^{(MoE: ±4.9%)}

Fifth CD Rep. Chris Murphy holds a narrow lead over former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz in the Democratic primary-which won’t be held for more than a year, and which could feature additional candidates (a few other people are poking their noses around the race). Murphy has a nine-point lead with men, but Bysiewicz’s advantage with women is just three points. She does win African Americans by a large margin, but they only make up 11% of the primary electorate in our sample. The biggest difference between the candidates is in their favorables: Murphy scores an impressive 51-14 among Democrats, while Bysiewicz is at 45-27.

Even though no Republicans have officially declared their candidacies yet, we tested the general election (registered voters) as well:

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 44

Mark Boughton (R): 34

Undecided: 22

Chris Murphy (D): 52

Mark Boughton (R): 29

Undecided: 19

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 45

Michael Fedele (R): 35

Undecided: 20

Chris Murphy (D): 51

Michael Fedele (R): 29

Undecided: 20

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 45

Scott Frantz (R): 30

Undecided: 24

Chris Murphy (D): 51

Scott Frantz (R): 27

Undecided: 22

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 50

Linda McMahon (R): 39

Undecided: 12

Chris Murphy (D): 54

Linda McMahon (R): 38

Undecided: 9

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 42

Rob Simmons (R): 39

Undecided: 19

Chris Murphy (D): 49

Rob Simmons (R): 34

Undecided: 18

^{(MoE: ±3.4%)}

If I were Susan Bysiewicz, I’d be pretty pleased with these numbers-even the most popular Republicans can’t crawl their way into the 40s. But if I were Chris Murphy, I’d be even more stoked, and it’s not hard to see why: He crushes the nobodies by twenty-plus-point margins, bodyslams Linda McMahon by sixteen and hold even the semi-popular Rob Simmons to a fifteen point spread. Again, the difference lies in the favorables: Statewide, all voters like Murphy by a 40-27 spread. Bysiewicz, on the other hand, is under water at 31-41. It’s a testament to how weak Republicans are in Connecticut that they do so poorly against her, with only Simmons making the race even appear to be competitive.

And that’s just the nature of the state. Barack Obama’s job approval here is a healthy 55-39, while freshman Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal is at 53-32. New Dem Gov. Dan Malloy doesn’t fare as well, but his 39-47 rating is almost certainly due to the fact that he’s actually trying to pass a responsible budget. You’ll also be pleased to know that Joe Lieberman (if you still remember who he is) has sunk all the way to a 29-58 job approval score, and he’s negative with Democrats, independents, and Republicans (in order of descending disgust).

I’m an avowed Chris Murphy partisan, but I’m a Democrat first and always, and I’m just glad to see that the Republicans will have an incredibly hard time making this race competitive. 2010 was their high-water mark, and even then, despite Linda McMahon’s zillions, they still lost by twelve points. It’s difficult to imagine them doing better in 2012.

In my previous Indiana diary, I attempted to create an 8-1 map in Indiana. It had the potential to be a dummymander, trying to take out both Peter Visclosky and Joe Donnelly. You can view that map here:

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

For this Indiana map, I tried to be much more reasonable, creating a heavy Democratic district that stretches from Gary to South Bend taking in Michigan City while taking out Donnelly in the process. The rest of the districts stay close to their current PVI, and should remain in the hands of the party that currently holds that district.

1st District: Current Rep: Peter Visclosky (D)

Racial breakdown: 59 W    22 B    14 H    2 A

Partisan lean: Safe D

This district is the Democratic vote sink in Northern Indiana. It takes in the heavy African-American areas in Lake County, swings over to pick up Michigan City, and finishes in South Bend. Donnelly could mount a primary challenge against Visclosky, but Visclosky has the more liberal record, and I would favor Visclosky to win that race.

2nd District: Current Rep: Joe Donnelly (D)

Racial breakdown: 86 W    3 B    9 H     1 A

Partisan lean: Safe R

I see no reason Republicans shouldn’t take over this district easily. All the Democratic areas are removed from the district, and Republican leaning Elkhart County is added to the district.

3rd District: Current Rep: Marlin Stutzman (R)

Racial breakdown: 86 W    6 B    5 H     2 A

Partisan lean: Safe R

Not much to see here, Stutzman keeps his Ft. Wayne based.

4th District: Current Rep: Todd Rokita (R)

Racial breakdown: 88 W    4 B    5 H    3 A

Partisan lean: Safe R

The 4th is cleaned up a little bit, but should remain safely in the Republican column. The GOP heavy Indianapolis suburbs located in this district overwhelm Democratic votes in West Lafayette and Kokomo.

5th District: Current Rep: Dan Burton (R)

Racial breakdown: 86 W   6 B   4 H   3 A

Partisan lean: Safe R

The district is centered on the heavy Republican suburbs of Indianapolis. No problem for Burton.

6th District: Current Rep: Mike Pence (R)

Racial breakdown: 92 W   2 B    2 H   2 A

Partisan lean: Safe R

This district shifts south to take in heavy Republican Morgan and Johnson counties and also eats up liberal precincts in Bloomington. Will stay in the GOP column.

7th District: Current Rep: Andre Carson (D)

Racial breakdown: 55 W   31 B    11 H  2 A

Partisan lean: Safe D

NO CHANGE! (A Twilight Zone reference for those of you under 30). Carson’s Indianapolis centered district is almost identical to the current district.

8th District: Current Rep: Larry Buschon (R)

Racial breakdown: 92 W    4 B    3 H   1 A

Partisan lean: Lean R is Ellsworth runs, Safe R if not.

This district stays very similar to the current district as well. Ellsworth is probably the only Democrat who could win here, but it would have to be an exceptional year for him to pull it off.

9th District: Current Rep: Todd Young (R)

Racial Breakdown: 93 W   2 B   3 H   1 A

Partisan lean: Safe R

By taking Bloomington out of this district, Young is now safe for as long as he wants to be in Congress. This is one of the most rural districts in Indiana.

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• MO-Sen: Well, it looks like Claire McCaskill has been trying to make me look like an idiot. After this site’s repeated smack-downs of the “airplane” story as Politico-fueled b.s., it turns out that there is quite a bit more to it: McCaskill now says she owes $287,000 in unpaid property taxes on the plane. That’s quite a bit. Of course, she says she’s paying them, and she’s also having her husband sell the plane – and she further notes that this problem only came to light because she reviewed the plane’s records herself. But how do you forget to pay over a quarter mil in taxes? Man.

In other MO-Sen news, former state GOP chair Ann Wagner was in DC last week meeting with the NRSC about her bid. She still claims her first preference is to run for Senate, but based on the quotes in Roll Call’s piece, it’s sounding more and more like Rep. Todd Akin (R) will get in and she’ll run for his seat. Of course, who knows what MO-02 will look like in a few months….

• PA-Sen: The National Journal’s Alex Roarty says that Ed Stack, longtime CEO of Dick’s Sporting Goods and Pittsburgh native, is thinking about seeking the GOP nomination to challenge Sen. Bob Casey. Stack is, of course, very rich.

• ND-Gov: Horse’s mouth: Ex-Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) is leaving the door just slightly ajar to a gubernatorial run, saying “I am not excluding anything nor am I focusing on politics right now.” But he repeatedly told the Fargo-Moorhead Forum that he was concentrating on his new legal/lobbying job at Alston & Bird in DC.

• WV-Gov: SoS Natalie Tennant released a poll from GQR showing acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin leading the Dem primary field with 31, but with herself just behind at 27. Treasurer John Perdue is at 14, while state House Speaker Rick Thompson and state Sen. Jeff Kessler take 5 apiece.

• CA-36: Debra Bowen got her first endorsement from a member of Congress: Rep. Judy Chu, who filled Hilda Solis’s 32nd CD seat when the latter became Secretary of Labor. Several other local officials have also endorsed. Also of note: The Courage Campaign is holding a candidate forum on Thursday, and if you click the link, you can submit a question.

• IA-03: Longtime SSPer (and blogger in her own right) desmoinesdem points out that Nancy Pelosi is coming to Iowa to do some fundraisers with Rep. Leonard Boswell, including one at the home of 2010 Dem Senate nominee Roxanne Conlin. Is this a suggestion to Christie Vilsack that perhaps she ought not run?

• KS-04: One political scientist is calling him “the congressman from Koch” – and you’ll probably want to as well. Mike Pompeo, a loathsome man hated by many fellow Republicans, took in $80K in donations from Koch employees, was supported by the Koch front group Americans for Prosperity, and, for good measure, hired a Koch Industries attorney as his chief of staff. (Or more like, David and Charles installed a fixer to make sure their new paisan did as he was told.) Pompeo’s been delivering: He’s promoting legislation to defund a new consumer complaints database, and an EPA catalog of greenhouse-gas polluters. Personally, I think this dickbag could be very vulnerable to a GOP primary.

• NY-26: Crazy Jack Davis and David Bellavia both filed signatures to appear on the ballot as independents – but of course, now the fun can truly begin. If you weren’t already aware, New York has just about the most draconian requirements for petitions in the land – they can be invalidated for as little as using the wrong color ink. I’d be pretty surprised if the GOP didn’t try to nuke both of these guys from orbit, though Davis might be invulnerable, since he said he submitted over 12,000 petitions. Bellavia’s camp would only say that they submitted “more” than the required 3,500. Unless he has at least double that number, once Christian Szell starts asking “Is it safe?”, it’s a good bet that Bellavia won’t survive scrutiny.

• OR-01: Kari Chisholm of Blue Oregon has an excellent roundup of recent OR-01 stories, so I’m going to recommend you click through for his summaries and links. Two items of note: Republican state Sen. Bruce Starr says he won’t challenge Rep. David Wu, and Wu is apparently starting to actively fundraise again, with an event this week in Portland. I’ve gotta ask: Who the heck would want to show up to such a thing?

• AZ-St. Sen.: A recall effort is underway against notorious Republican state Sen. Russell Pearce, the architect of Arizona’s infamous anti-immigrant legislation known as SB1070. The leader of the best-organized group claims they have thousands of signatures and are meeting their goals, but they aren’t releasing any actual numbers.

• NYC-Mayor: Another Republican campaign, another fortune embezzled. Mike Bloomberg hired John Haggerty to forklift over a million bucks to the state’s Independence Party, but instead, Haggerty laundered most of the cash through a consulting firm he owned and spent $750K on a home in Queens. Now a judge says that the evidence of Haggerty’s guilt is “overwhelming.” Can’t say I feel too bad for Bloombo! (Other recent similar incidents involved Rep. Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey and ex-Rep. Chris Shays of Connecticut.)

• California: California Republicans are doing their best to ruin whatever advantages the state’s new top-two primary system might give them – on purpose. While the top-two might free more moderate GOPers from the ultra-conservative stranglehold on primaries, the activist base wants none of that. Starting in 2014, the party will conduct “pre-primaries” by mail and award their formal endorsement to whoever wins those beauty contests. These people will get assistance from the state party and will also be listed as the “official” GOP candidate for that race. David Atkins thinks, though, that this is a feature, not a bug: The CA Republican Party needs just 1/3 of the members of one of the chamber of the state legislature to maintain California’s absolutely dysfunctional system of state governance, and this helps ensure that they elect uncompromising crazies to the few seats they do win – which is all they require.

Redistricting Roundup:

• California: Good news: The Republican firm that was a finalist to serve as the redistricting commission’s mapping consultant was unanimously rejected in favor of an Oakland company called Q2 Data and Research. And while Gibson Dunn & Crutcher, which was selected as the panel’s law firm, does have some well-connected Republican partners in their DC office (like Ted Olson and Miguel Estrada), it’s big enough that you’ll probably find the entire gamut from good to evil working under their umbrella (so let’s hope we get “good”).

• Louisiana: This Times-Picayune piece details the backroom wrangling going on over Louisiana’s congressional map, which painfully has to shrink from seven to six seats. Scroll down to that grey call-out box on the left for links to actual maps. I believe we linked the Gallot maps before, but the Kostelka and Jackson maps should be new. (You’ll find them at the end of some very long PDFs.) I note that of these plans seem to keep one Dem district by marrying New Orleans with Baton Rouge.

• New Jersey: NJ legislators are being weirdly good about not sharing their proposed state maps with the public, but folks who have seen them are chatting up reporters. One such person, Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray, thinks that the GOP is running afoul of the edicts set by commission boss Alan Rosenthal, and could get in trouble for their attempts to over-reach.

Illinois is losing one congressional district this year – going from 19 to 18.  I have created a map that takes the current map with a delegation of 11 Republicans and 8 Democrats to one with 12 Democratic seats and 6 Republican ones.  I consider this an ambitious gerrymander favoring the Democrats, but one that is realistic and keeps a few things in mind:

1.) Michael Madigan is in charge and he will look out for his interests first.  He also will never do a dummymander.

2.) The Democratic incumbents also have input and their interests will be considered.  None of them will want their district lines to change much and all want their Democratic primary bases to be kept intact.  They also don’t want to be thrown from safe seats to possibly competitive ones.

3.) African Americans will insist on maintaining their three black majority districts, no matter how much population they have lost in the city.  The Hispanics will want at least one – two may be forced by the courts – but Madigan and his allies will likely push for one Hispanic district to maintain Lipinski’s seat.  Also, we have seen in the City of Chicago that Hispanic majority seats often go to white incumbents who control the Democratic machine.  Alderman Ed Burke’s 14th ward is 88% Hispanic, Madigan’s 13th ward is 72% Hispanic and just elected somebody named “Marty Quinn” to be Alderman.  

4.) Madigan will go after Freshman GOP before those with more seniority.  Not only are they easier targets, but having seniority on both sides of the aisle is good for Illinois.

Below is each new district with data and analysis.  I have calculated the results from the 2010 Senate race (Kirk v. Giannoulias) and from the 2004 Presidential race (Bush v. Kerry – I know, old).  I used the 2010 Senate race rather than the Governor’s race because it is on the Federal level, and to use data against moderate Republican.  I did not calculate data from the 2008 election, because Obama’s landslide was far too big  and unevenly distributed in Illinois (I feel Chicagoland was much more skewed than Downstate).  The 2010 numbers are exact (to the precinct) except for Tazewell, Marion, Moultrie, and Menard Counties, which I allocated votes by ratio of population in each district.  The same goes for 2004 numbers, except I had to extrapolate the precinct data for Lake and Will counties from 2010 data.

For now, here are three tables with election data, racial population data, and VAP data.  I will add more analysis in the next few days.

District  Kirk   Alexi    Bush   Kerry    PVI

1        24.80% 75.20% 23.00% 77.00% D+30

2        25.26% 74.74% 26.39% 73.61% D+28

3        48.14% 51.86% 44.25% 55.75% D+8

4        26.57% 73.43% 26.90% 73.10% D+28

5        47.72% 52.28% 41.53% 58.47% D+10

6        63.33% 36.67% 57.66% 42.34% R+6

7        18.61% 81.39% 15.81% 84.19% D+37

8        53.71% 46.29% 46.66% 53.34% D+4

9        47.77% 52.23% 39.12% 60.88% D+11

10       47.75% 52.25% 39.70% 60.30% D+11

11       68.75% 31.25% 60.55% 39.45% R+10

12       53.24% 46.76% 47.02% 52.98% D+4

13       49.12% 50.88% 45.12% 54.88% D+7

14       64.94% 35.06% 59.55% 40.45% R+8

15       68.33% 31.67% 59.68% 40.32% R+10

16       67.03% 32.97% 57.86% 42.14% R+8

17       56.61% 43.39% 46.84% 53.16% D+3

18       68.31% 31.69% 60.39% 39.61% R+10

ALL

District  White  Black  Hispanic  Asian

1        35.5%   52.7%   8.2%   2.0%

2        31.4%   52.8%   13.4%   0.8%

3        59.5%   6.1%   27.7%   5.4%

4        18.7%   4.1%   73.3%   2.9%

5        65.1%   2.2%   24.4%   6.7%

6        75.4%   3.7%   8.8%   10.3%

7        27.6%   54.5%   12.2%   4.1%

8        48.6%   8.7%   31.5%   9.1%

9        67.4%   7.8%   10.6%   12.0%

10       72.2%   3.4%   10.9%   11.5%

11       92.7%   3.2%   2.0%   0.8%

12       77.5%   16.6%   2.8%   1.1%

13       53.0%   12.7%   27.3%   5.0%

14       82.5%   1.6%   11.4%   3.2%

15       85.4%   6.8%   3.1%   2.9%

16       88.6%   2.6%   6.3%   1.1%

17       77.9%   12.4%   5.8%   1.5%

18       86.7%   5.4%   4.8%   1.6%

VAP

District  White  Black  Hispanic  Asian

1        38.0%   51.7%   6.9%   2.2%

2        34.5%   51.8%   11.7%   0.8%

3        64.0%   5.9%   23.5%   5.7%

4        23.2%   4.1%   68.3%   3.4%

5        69.1%   2.0%   20.9%   6.8%

6        77.7%   3.5%   7.5%   10.2%

7        31.1%   51.8%   11.0%   4.8%

8        54.1%   8.1%   26.9%   9.4%

9        69.2%   7.8%   9.3%   12.1%

10       74.7%   3.3%   9.3%   11.2%

11       93.5%   3.2%   1.7%   0.8%

12       80.0%   15.3%   2.4%   1.1%

13       58.3%   12.1%   23.4%   5.0%

14       85.3%   1.4%   9.4%   3.1%

15       86.7%   6.2%   2.7%   3.2%

16       90.8%   2.4%   4.9%   1.1%

17       81.7%   10.8%   4.6%   1.5%

18       88.7%   5.1%   3.8%   1.5%

For “A Republican Connecticut” I’ve made not one but four interesting maps. There is also a bonus Democratic Connecticut for those interested. Redistricting in Connecticut, as I understand it, prohibits the splitting of towns for any reason other than to balance population. Therefore I have not split any towns in any of the maps and have kept population deviation within 1%; town splitting to accomodate the last couple of thousand people won’t change any numbers. As in only 29 of the 169 towns in Connecticut did a majority of voters vote for McCain over Obama, most by a slender margin, it was rather difficult to produce overly Republican districts. Edit: The colouring problems should now be resolved

Republican Connecticut (2-3)

We will start off with a messy looking map that should give Republicans a chance at both the R+1 1st and the D+3 2nd.

1st (Blue) 51.7% Obama

2nd (Green) 56.1% Obama

3rd (Dark Magenta) 70.9% Obama

4th (Red) 63.3% Obama

5th (Gold) 66.1% Obama

Republican Connecticut with Water Contiguity (2-3)

CD1 and CD2 are both close to toss-up districts with R+1/D+1 PVIs respectively. Districts four and, spectacularly, five both rely on water continuity. The water south of Darien in western Connecticut shouldn’t be coloured for this or future maps; it’s just a limitation in the application.

1st (Blue) 51.9% Obama

2nd (Green) 54.1% Obama

3rd (Dark Magenta) 68.8% Obama

4th (Red) 66.6% Obama

5th (Gold) 67.0% Obama

Republican Connecticut (1-4)

CD1 is the most Republican district I could make in Connecticut without splitting towns or using water contiguity, it doesn’t quite get under 50% Obama but it does achieve a R+2 PVI. Three democratic district are stacked on top of each other in the centre of the state (and one on the western edge) whilst the republican district wraps itself around them on three sides.

1st (Blue) 50.8% Obama

2nd (Green) 68.0% Obama

3rd (Dark Magenta) 61.9% Obama

4th (Red) 64.0% Obama

5th (Gold) 62.3% Obama

Republican Connecticut with Water Contiguity (1-4)

At last a Connecticut congressional district that voted for McCain! By the thumping margin of 575 votes! And all that needed to be done was sacrifice four out of the five districts and use water continuity for two of the districts.

1st (Blue) 49.9% Obama

2nd (Green) 66.5% Obama

3rd (Dark Magenta) 62.6% Obama

4th (Red) 69.4% Obama

5th (Gold) 60.2% Obama

Democratic Connecticut

Finally I made a bonus Democratic Connecticut that might be quite a good choice for redistricting if Democrats had free reign over the process. Only counties too large for their own congressional district are split and the current representatives remain in their own districts, though not Chris Murphy since he is running for senate (although he could be drawn back into the 5th easily enough if it were desired).

1st (Blue) 61.6% Obama

All of Litchfield county, most of northern Hartford county, Waterbury and Wolcott towns in New Haven county.

2nd (Green) 60.5% Obama

All of New London, Windham, and Tolland counties, south eastern Hartford County, and Enfield township.

3rd (Dark Magenta) 60.0% Obama

Western New Haven county and Northern Fairfield county.

4th (Red) 61.0% Obama

Southern Fairfield county.

5th (Gold) 62.8% Obama

Big change here. The district shifts east to encompass all of Chester county, southern Hartford county and western New Haven county.

Two articles out today talk about Daves Redistricting and how technology is changing redistricting. The WSJ mentions the ‘baconmander’ (abgin’s winning map in the Great Redistricting Contest a year ago. The USA Today talks about various efforts to get more people involved.

More on those below the fold.

Also, more states available in DRA: FL, GA, MN, ND, NM, TN. (CA was added last week).

And a new feature: you can save your work as a CSV, either by voting district or by CD. Saving by voting district gives you each voting district, it’s geoid, name, CD you put it in and all of the demographic and election data. Saving by CD gives you each CD and the demographic and election data you put in that CD.

The WSJ article mentions Zach Nelson’s work on Maryland and PA:

Mr. Nelson, who lives in Minnesota, has spent the wee hours in his studio apartment eliminating Pennsylvania’s mangled 12th House district, part of which resembles a deformed, backward capital “E.” He streamlined Maryland’s third district, a Democratic stronghold that starts north of Baltimore, works around the city center and snakes down to Annapolis, 40 miles south.

“It looks like some geographical Rorschach test,” he says. “You don’t need to make it like that.”

Of course, it’s not only progressives who are using the new tech:

“Dave’s Redistricting App,” has generated a zealous following on Internet message boards and politics blogs. Self-declared cartographers spend hours drafting and arguing over new legislative boundaries. Steve Dunn, 60, of Orange County, Calif., says on a few days he’s mapped for 10 hours straight.

Mr. Dunn set out to see if voters in Western Pennsylvania could be rearranged to help the GOP. He packed Democratic voters into Pittsburgh, creating a new district that starts in the city and extends tentacles along the city’s rivers to take in blue-collar Democrats.

“Look at the map,” Mr. Dunn, an attorney, said. “It’s just a gorgeous octopus.”

In December 2009, SwingStateProject ran a contest to redistrict NY with 28 districts.

One online contest called for mapping New York so that every congressional district would likely elect a Democrat. A popular solution: Cut the state into horizontal strips that dive along the state’s east coast and dip the Democratic voter-well of New York City. Mr. Miller calls it the “baconmander.”

“Those long skinny districts are not going to cut it,” one commenter said. Another said: “It looks like the state’s been sliced up like a bell pepper under the knife of a masterful chef!”

Contest Results here.

The USA Today article talks about a number of efforts. One is the contest the state of VA is having:

Kappert, working around the clock to meet a tight deadline, is using new software to draw an updated Senate district map – one he hopes will win his team a $2,000 top prize in a statewide competition when the winning maps are announced Tuesday. More important, he hopes the Virginia Legislature will consider his map as it adjusts political boundaries to the 2010 Census.

Across the USA, college students, citizen activists and political junkies are using similar software to break a mapmaking monopoly held for decades by state lawmakers.

At Columbia University, students are drawing maps:

Law students at Columbia University in New York City are attempting to draw districts for all 435 U.S. House seats at DrawCongress.org. “The educational component is for the students themselves, but also the general public,” says their professor, Nate Persily. “When the line drawers say something can’t be done, we can say ‘Look – we did it.’ “

And DRA gets some attention, too:

Dave Bradlee, a 55-year-old Seattle software developer, created DavesRedistricting.com. It’s sponsored by the liberal ProgressiveCongress.org, but Bradlee says activists of all stripes use it. “It can put power in people’s hands,” Bradlee says. “People can see how the process works, so it’s a little less mysterious than it was 10 years ago.”

Cross-posted at DailyKos.com. Dave’s Redistricting is a project of ProgressiveCongress.org. You can support the project with a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you.

Mason-Dixon for the Billings Gazette (3/14-16, registered voters, no trendlines):

Jon Tester (D-inc): 46

Denny Rehberg (R): 45

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±4%)

If you needed any convincing that the Jon Tester/Denny Rehberg duel is going to be one of the closest Senate races in the country in 2012 — where not only the seat but potentially control of the entire Senate may boil down to a few thousand voters in Montana — here’s some clear evidence. Mason-Dixon finds the race is a “virtual tie” (as those in the media are fond of saying), with both candidates with high name recognition and extremely high levels of polarization in how voters of the two parties support them. Tester gets 94-1 (!) support among Dems while Rehberg gets 89-3 support among Republicans; Tester’s lead depends on indies, among whom he leads 49-37.

Mason-Dixon also looked at approvals for the state’s other big-name politicians: Max Baucus, once the one untouchable political figure in the state, is now its least popular (thanks to his role as one of the most public faces of the HCR sausage-making process), with 38% approval. Should the currently 69-year-old Baucus retire in 2014 (and he may have no choice, given those numbers), outgoing Gov. Brian Schweitzer would be a ready-made replacement for the Dems, tops in the state at 60% approval. Tester is at 50%, with Rehberg at 48%. (The Gazette doesn’t seem to report the disapproval half of the equation, for some reason.)

My mapmaking has been slowed down lately, but I wanted to share a configuration I have been working on now that DRA has full 2010 census data.  

Essentially, this map makes all five current Democratic seats into seats with a majority African-American VAP.  Numbers below are VAP figures, not total population

GA-2 – 42.7% White, 51.1% Black, 4% Hispanic, 0.9% Asian

GA-4 – 32.5% White, 51.5% Black, 8.9% Hispanic, 5.1% Asian

GA-5 – 32.7% White, 52.3 Black, 9.8% Hispanic, 3.3% Asian

GA-12 – 42% White, 50.3% Black, 4.7% Hispanic, 1.5% Asian

GA-13 – 32.7% White, 54.4% Black, 7.9% Hispanic, 3.4% Asian

Making GA-12 have a majority black VAP was by far the hardest goal.  Essentially I swapped out current white, rural districts, and instead added largely black portions of Newton, Rockdale, and southwest Gwinnett.  

In addition, it should be noted that GA-7 under this configuration (Gwinnett minus the plurality-black parts of the southwest, and a few overwhelmingly white precincts in the north) is only 43.9% white, with a 47.6% white VAP.  Despite the high number of minorities in the county it’s currently heavily Republican (probably because of a high immigrant population), but in districts like this it’s only a matter of time before they swing.  I could have easily drawn a district which was less than 40% white by dipping into Latino-heavy parts of DeKalb and shuffling other districts around, but I liked having such a compact GA-4.  

Note:  I didn’t put much thought into the Republican seats, aside from keeping them in roughly the same places where possible (although that was obviously more difficult in metro Atlanta with the new GA-14.  

Regardless, any thoughts?

Rather unexpectedly, here’s a big name set to enter the race against what has to be one of the 2010 cycle’s top GOP targets in the House: Allen West.

Term-limited West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel is expected to announce this afternoon that she’s running for the congressional seat of freshman U.S. Rep. Allen West, R-Plantation.

Frankel, who’ll preside over her last city commission meeting today and whose last day as mayor is March 31, wouldn’t reveal her plans in a brief conversation this morning. But well-placed Democrats say they expect her to formally enter the District 22 race.

The DCCC has to regard this as a big score, as she’s one of the most prominent political figures on the Gold Coast. (Of course, that has some potential downside, compared with a fresh face; she’s been around long enough to have pissed a lot of people off over the years, after two terms as WPB mayor, a long stint in the state House, and even losing a particularly  racially-charged primary against Alcee Hastings back in 1992 when FL-23 was created.)

Some Dude Patrick Murphy is already in the race for the Dems; while ex-Rep. Ron Klein hasn’t ruled out a rematch, his employment plans seem to indicate he’s moved on. An announcement this early is a surprise considering that this district will probably see massive reconfiguration in the redistricting process (especially if the Fair Districts initiative winds up staying in effect), but she’s probably confident she could win even in the currently D+1 configuration.