Month: March 2011

In the last part of my redistricting California series, here is a map of what a 120-district unicameral legislature, the Senate and Assembly merged, might look like. I did this map at the same time as the Assembly map.

Majority-White: 54

Majority-Black: 1

Majority-Hispanic: 16

Majority-Minority: 49

Safe Dem: 56

Likely Dem: 13

Lean Dem: 6

Toss-Up: 10

Lean GOP: 14

Likely GOP: 11

Safe GOP: 10

Outer NorCal

LD-01: Humboldt County, Mendocino County, most of Sonoma County

Demographics: 78% White, 13% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 68%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+15)

LD-02: Most of southern Sonoma County

Demographics: 73% White, 18% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 74%, McCain 24% (SAFE DEM: D+21)

LD-03: Marin County, Petaluma in Sonoma County

Demographics: 78% White, 12% Hispanic, 5% Asian

2008 President: Obama 77%, McCain 21% (SAFE DEM: D+24)

LD-04: Del Norte County, Siskiyou County, Trinity County, Shasta County, Modoc County, Lassen County

Demographics: 83% White, 7% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 60%, Obama 38% (SAFE GOP: R+14)

LD-05: Tehama County, Glenn County, Colusa County, most of Butte County

Demographics: 77% White, 15% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 51%, Obama 47% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

LD-06: Sutter County, Yuba County, Sierra County, Plumas County, most of Nevada County, Oroville in Butte County

Demographics: 72% White, 15% Hispanic, 6% Asian

2008 President: McCain 52%, Obama 46% (LIKELY GOP: R+6)

LD-07: Lake County, Napa County, Vallejo in Solano County

Demographics: 58% White, 18% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 9% Black

2008 President: Obama 67%, McCain 31% (SAFE DEM: D+14)

LD-08: Yolo County, Vacaville and Winters in Solano County

Demographics: 60% White, 23% Hispanic, 8% Asian

2008 President: Obama 62%, McCain 36% (LIKELY DEM: D+9)

LD-09: Most of Solano County, southern and eastern Sacramento County

Demographics: 60% White, 16% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 9% Black

2008 President: Obama 56%, McCain 43% (LEAN DEM: D+3)

LD-10: Southern Sacramento

Demographics: 40% White, 20% Asian, 19% Hispanic, 15% Black

2008 President: Obama 65%, McCain 34% (SAFE DEM: D+12)

LD-11: Central Sacramento

Demographics: 50% White, 18% Hispanic, 15% Asian, 11% Black

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

LD-12: Northern Sacramento

Demographics: 61% White, 16% Hispanic, 9% Black, 8% Asian

2008 President: Obama 62%, McCain 36% (LIKELY DEM: D+9)

LD-13: Placer County, part of southern Nevada County

Demographics: 81% White, 11% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 54%, Obama 44% (LIKELY GOP: R+8)

LD-14: Northwestern Sacramento County, southeastern Placer County

Demographics: 74% White, 10% Hispanic, 5% Black, 5% Asian

2008 President: McCain 50%, Obama 48% (LEAN GOP: R+3)

LD-15: El Dorado County, Citrus Heights and Folsom in Sacramento County

Demographics: 82% White, 10% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 54%, Obama 44% (LIKELY GOP: R+8)

San Francisco/Oakland/East Bay

LD-16: Western San Francisco

Demographics: 50% White, 36% Asian, 6% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 82%, McCain 16% (SAFE DEM: D+29)

LD-17: Northeastern San Francisco

Demographics: 49% White, 24% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 7% Black

2008 President: Obama 86%, McCain 12% (SAFE DEM: D+33)

LD-18: Southeastern San Francisco, Daly City

Demographics: 41% Asian, 23% Hispanic, 22% White, 11% Black

2008 President: Obama 82%, McCain 16% (SAFE DEM: D+29)

LD-19: Martinez, Richmond

Demographics: 39% White, 21% Hispanic, 19% BLack, 17% Asian

2008 President: Obama 80%, McCain 18% (SAFE DEM: D+27)

LD-20: Berkeley, Emeryville

Demographics: 49% White, 22% Black, 16% Asian, 9% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 91%, McCain 7% (SAFE DEM: D+38)

LD-21: Oakland

Demographics: 31% Black, 26% Hispanic, 20% White, 18% Asian

2008 President: Obama 87%, McCain 11% (SAFE DEM: D+34)

LD-22: South San Francisco, San Mateo, Pacifica

Demographics: 52% White, 21% Hispanic, 21% Asian

2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 25% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

LD-23: Most of San Mateo County, small part of northwestern Santa Clara County

Demographics: 58% White, 22% Hispanic, 12% Asian

2008 President: 74% Obama, 24% McCain (SAFE DEM: D+21)

LD-24: Silicon Valley

Demographics: 52% White, 29% Asian, 13% Hispanic

2008 President: 75% Obama, 23% McCain (SAFE DEM: D+22)

LD-25: Pleasant Hill, Lafayette, Orinda

Demographics: 72% White, 12% Hispanic, 10% Asian

2008 President: Obama 67%, McCain 31% (SAFE DEM: D+14)

LD-26: Eastern Contra Costa County

Demographics: 56% White, 23% Hispanic, 9% Black, 8% Asian

2008 President: Obama 64%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+11)

LD-27: San Ramon, eastern Alameda County

Demographics: 76% White, 10% Asian, 9% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 39% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

LD-28: San Leandro

Demographics: 40% White, 26% Hispanic, 18% Asian, 10% Black

2008 President: Obama 75%, McCain 23% (SAFE DEM: D+22)

LD-29: Hayward, Union City, Fremont

Demographics: 35% White, 34% Asian, 20% Hispanic, 5% Black

2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 25% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

LD-30: Milpitas, Santa Clara

Demographics: 42% White, 35% Asian, 16% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 70%, McCain, 28% (SAFE DEM: D+17)

LD-31: Northern San Jose

Demographics: 35% Hispanic, 29% Asian, 29% White

2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 25% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

LD-32: Eastern San Jose

Demographics: 44% Hispanic, 33% Asian, 16% White

2008 President: Obama 70%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+17)

LD-33: Downtown San Jose

Demographics: 62% White, 16% Hispanic, 15% Asian

2008 President: Obama 67%, McCain 32% (SAFE DEM: D+14)

LD-34: Palo Alto, Cupertino, Monte Sereno, western Stanislaus County

Demographics: 62% White, 18% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 63%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+10)

LD-35: Santa Cruz County, Gilroy

Demographics: 61% White, 31% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 76%, McCain 22% (SAFE DEM: D+23)

Central

LD-36: Turlock, Merced County

Demographics: 44% White, 42% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 52%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: R+1)

LD-37: Lodi, Tracy, Escalon, Ripon

Demographics: 57% White, 27% Hispanic, 8% Asian

2008 President: McCain 50%, Obama 48% (LEAN GOP: R+4)

LD-38: Stockton

Demographics: 34% White, 33% Hispanic, 18% Asian, 10% Black

2008 President: Obama 64%, McCain 34% (SAFE DEM: D+11)

LD-39: Lathrop, Manteca, Modesto

Demographics: 58% White, 27% Hispanic, 6% Asian

2008 President: Obama 52%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: R+1)

LD-40: Eastern Central Valley, eastern Stanislaus County, eastern Madera County

Demographics: 74% White, 18% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 43% (LIKELY GOP: R+9)

LD-41: Western Madera County, northern Fresno

Demographics: 51% White, 36% Hispanic, 5% Asian

2008 President: McCain 52%, Obama 47% (LIKELY GOP: R+6)

LD-42: Southern Fresno

Demographics: 47% Hispanic, 28% White, 13% Asian, 9% Black

2008 President: Obama 64%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+11)

LD-43: San Benito County, Salinas

Demographics: 48% Hispanic, 37% White, 7% Asian

2008 President: Obama 67%, McCain 31% (SAFE DEM: D+14)

LD-44: Most of Monterey and San Luis Obispo Counties

Demographics: 70% White, 22% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 57%, McCain 41% (LEAN DEM: D+4)

LD-46: Western Fresno County, eastern Fresno

Demographics: 45% Hispanic, 42% White, 6% Asian

2008 President: McCain 53%, Obama 46% (LIKELY GOP: R+7)

LD-47: Eastern Fresno, Visalia

Demographics: 47% Hispanic, 45% White

2008 President: McCain 57%, Obama 41% (SAFE GOP: R+11)

LD-48: Most of Tulare, all of Inyo, Ridgecrest in Kern County

Demographics: 47% Hispanic, 44% White

2008 President: McCain 57%, Obama 41% (SAFE GOP: R+11)

LD-49: Kings County, northwestern Kern County

Demographics: 46% Hispanic, 40% White, 6% Black

2008 President: McCain 58%, Obama 40% (SAFE GOP: R+12)

Outer SoCal

LD-45: San Luis Obispo, Pismo Beach, Santa Maria, Lompoc

Demographics: 58% White, 32% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 49.1%, McCain 48.9% (LEAN GOP: R+3)

LD-50: Bakersfield

Demographics: 44% Hispanic, 42% White, 8% Black

2008 President: McCain 50%, Obama 49% (LEAN GOP: R+3)

LD-51: Central and eastern Kern County

Demographics: 59% White, 29% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 62%, Obama 37% (SAFE GOP: R+16)

LD-52: Santa Barbara, Ojai, Ventura

Demographics: 60% White, 32% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

LD-53: Northern and eastern Ventura County

Demographics: 72% White, 19% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 50%, McCain 48% (LEAN GOP: R+3)

LD-55: Santa Clarita

Demographics: 63% White, 22% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 6% black

2008 President: McCain 50%, Obama 48% (LEAN GOP: R+4)

LD-56: Lancaster, Palmdale, Adelanto, Victorville

Demographics: 50% White, 31% Hispanic, 12% Black

2008 President: Obama 51%, McCain 47% (TOSS-UP: R+2)

LD-57: Hesperia, Victorville, Barstow, California City

Demographics: 61% White, 25% Hispanic, 7% Black

2008 President: McCain 57%, Obama 41% (SAFE GOP: R+11)

LD-92: Redlands, Yucaipa

Demographics: 68% White, 20% Hispanic, 5% Black

2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 43% (SAFE GOP: R+10)

LD-107: Temecula, Desert Hot Springs

Demographics: 67% White, 23% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 51%, Obama 47% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

LD-108: Palm Springs, Palm Desert, Indio

Demographics: 50% Hispanic, 44% White

2008 President: Obama 52%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: R+1)

LD-120: Blythe, Imperial County, eastern San Diego County

Demographics: 56% Hispanic, 36% White

2008 President: McCain 51%, Obama 47% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

Los Angeles/San Bernardino

LD-54: Oxnard, Camarillo

Demographics: 50% White, 39% Hispanic, 6% Asian

2008 President: Obama 58%, McCain 41% (LEAN DEM: D+5)

LD-58: Western San Fernando Valley

Demographics: 52% White, 28% Hispanic, 13% Asian

2008 President: Obama 63%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+10)

LD-59: Southeastern San Fernando Valley

Demographics: 50% Hispanic, 33% White, 8% Asian

2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 25% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

LD-60: San Fernando

Demographics: 57% Hispanic, 26% White, 9% Asian

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

LD-61: Far southeastern San Fernando Valley

Demographics: 47% Hispanic, 37% White, 7% Asian, 5% Black

2008 President: Obama 75%, McCain 23% (SAFE DEM: D+22)

LD-62: Burbank, Glendale

Demographics: 53% White, 28% Hispanic, 11% Asian

2008 President: Obama 63%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+10)

LD-63: South Pasadena

Demographics: 46% Hispanic, 29% White, 17% Asian

2008 President: Obama 73%, McCain 25% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

LD-64: San Gabriel, El Monte, Baldwin Park

Demographics: 57% Hispanic, 28% Asian, 12% White

2008 President: Obama 66%, McCain 32% (SAFE DEM: D+13)

LD-65: South El Monte, Industry, La Habra Heights

Demographics: 56% Hispanic, 20% Asian, 19% White

2008 President: Obama 62%, McCain 36% (LIKELY DEM: D+9)

LD-66: Covina, Walnut, Diamond Bar

Demographics: 41% Hispanic, 26% White, 25% Asian, 5% Black

2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 39% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

LD-67: Port Hueneme, Malibu, Santa Monica

Demographics: 65% White, 22% Hispanic, 7% Asian

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

LD-68: West Side L.A.

Demographics: 65% White, 15% Hispanic, 12% Asian

2008 President: Obama 74%, McCain 24% (SAFE DEM: D+21)

LD-69: Beverly Hills, West Hollywood

Demographics: 73% White, 10% Hispanic, 9% Asian

2008 President: Obama 75%, McCain 23% (SAFE DEM: D+22)

LD-70: Inglewood

Demographics: 47% Black, 35% Hispanic, 7% White, 7% Asian

2008 President: Obama 91%, McCain 7% (SAFE DEM: D+38)

LD-71: Culver City, Hawthorne

Demographics: 45% Hispanic, 26% Black, 16% White, 9% Asian

2008 President: Obama 82%, McCain 16% (SAFE DEM: D+29)

LD-72: South Central L.A., Compton

Demographics: 52% Black, 45% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 95%, McCain 4% (SAFE DEM: D+42)

LD-73: Downtown L.A. (yellow)

Demographics: 50% Hispanic, 25% White, 17% Asian

2008 President: Obama 82%, McCain 15% (SAFE DEM: D+29)

LD-74: Downtown L.A. (yellow green)

Demographics: 76% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 7% Black, 6% White

2008 President: Obama 82%, McCain 16% (SAFE DEM: D+29)

LD-75: Downtown L.A. (pink)

Demographics: 64% Hispanic, 17% Asian, 13% Black

2008 President: Obama 83%, McCain 15% (SAFE DEM: D+30)

LD-76: South Central, Vernon

Demographics: 74% Hispanic, 24% Black

2008 President: Obama 92%, McCain 7% (SAFE DEM: D+39)

LD-77: Commerce, Maywood, Bell

Demographics: 90% Hispanic, 5% Asian

2008 President: Obama 82%, McCain 16% (SAFE DEM: D+29)

LD-78: Montebello, Pico Rivera, Whittier

Demographics: 68% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 12% White

2008 President: Obama 70%, McCain 28% (SAFE DEM: D+17)

LD-79: El Segundo, Beach Cities

Demographics: 47% White, 25% Hispanic, 16% Asian, 8% Black

2008 President: Obama 61%, McCain 37% (LIKELY DEM: D+8)

LD-80: Palos Verdes, Torrance

Demographics: 50% White, 24% Hispanic, 18% Asian

2008 President: Obama 54%, McCain 44% (TOSS-UP: D+1)

LD-81: Carson, part of Long Beach

Demographics: 46% Hispanic, 21% White, 15% Black, 15% Asian

2008 President: Obama 74%, McCain 24% (SAFE DEM: D+21)

LD-82: South Gate, Paramount, Lynwood

Demographics: 80% Hispanic, 10% Black, 5% White

2008 President: Obama 83%, McCain 15% (SAFE DEM: D+30)

LD-83: Downey, Bellflower, Signal Hill

Demographics: 43% Hispanic, 32% White, 11% Black, 11% Asian

2008 President: Obama 63%, McCain 35% (SAFE DEM: D+10)

LD-84: Artesia, Norwalk, Lakewood, La Mirada

Demographics: 43% Hispanic, 28% White, 21% Asian, 5% Black

2008 President: Obama 58%, McCain 40% (LEAN DEM: D+5)

LD-85: La Canada Flintridge, Pasadena

Demographics: 34% White, 30% Hispanic, 21% Asian, 11% Black

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

LD-86: Monrovia, Glendora, San Dimas

Demographics: 45% White, 31% Hispanic, 16% Asian

2008 President: Obama 52%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: R+1)

LD-87: Claremont, Upland, Rancho Cucamonga

Demographics: 54% White, 28% Hispanic, 8% Black, 7% Asian

2008 President: Obama 51%, McCain 47% (TOSS-UP: R+2)

LD-88: Pomona, Montclair, Chino Hills

Demographics: 51% Hispanic, 27% White, 11% Asian, 8% Black

2008 President: Obama 60%, McCain 38% (LIKELY DEM: D+7)

LD-89: Chino, Ontario, Fontana

Demographics: 59% Hispanic, 25% White, 8% Black

2008 President: Obama 62%, McCain 36% (LIKELY DEM: D+9)

LD-90: Rialto, Colton

Demographics: 56% Hispanic, 23% White, 14% Black

2008 President: Obama 69%, McCain 29% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

LD-91: San Bernardino, Loma Linda, Grand Terrace

Demographics: 44% Hispanic, 32% White, 14% Black

2008 President: Obama 62%, McCain 36% (LIKELY DEM: D+9)

LD-93: Calimesa, Beaumont, Banning

Demographics: 63% White, 27% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 53%, Obama 45% (LIKELY GOP: R+8)

LD-103: Corona, Norco

Demographics: 49% White, 37% Hispanic, 5% Asian, 5% Black

2008 President: Obama 49%, McCain 49% (LEAN GOP: R+4)

LD-104: Riverside

Demographics: 43% Hispanic, 42% White, 7% Black

2008 President: Obama 56%, McCain 42% (LEAN DEM: D+3)

LD-105: Moreno Valley

Demographics: 38% White, 35% Hispanic, 16% Black, 8% Asian

2008 President: Obama 61%, McCain 38% (LIKELY DEM: D+8)

LD-106: Perris, Lake Elsinore, Murrieta

Demographics: 58% White, 29% Hispanic, 6% Black

2008 President: McCain 54%, Obama 45% (LIKELY GOP: R+8)

Orange County

LD-94: Long Beach, Seal Beach

Demographics: 50% White, 27% Hispanic, 12% Asian, 8% Black

2008 President: Obama 57%, McCain 41% (LEAN DEM: D+4)

LD-95: Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa

Demographics: 62% White, 21% Hispanic, 12% Asian

2008 President: McCain 51%, Obama 47% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

LD-96: Newport Beach, Irvine

Demographics: 74% White, 13% Asian, 9% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 51%, McCain 47% (TOSS-UP: R+2)

LD-97: Anaheim

Demographics: 51% Hispanic, 30% White, 13% Asian

2008 President: Obama 55%, McCain 43% (TOSS-UP: D+2)

LD-98: Garden Grove, Stanton

Demographics: 33% Hispanic, 33% Asian, 30% White

2008 President: McCain 52%, Obama 46% (LIKELY GOP: R+6)

LD-99: Santa Ana

Demographics: 78% Hispanic, 11% White, 7% Asian

2008 President: Obama 68%, McCain 30% (SAFE DEM: D+15)

LD-100: Cypress, Buena Park, Fullerton

Demographics: 45% White, 31% Hispanic, 19% Asian

2008 President: Obama 49%, McCain 49% (LEAN GOP: R+4)

LD-101: Placentia, Yorba Linda, Brea

Demographics: 63% White, 20% Hispanic, 12% Asian

2008 President: McCain 57%, Obama 41% (SAFE GOP: R+11)

LD-102: Orange, Tustin

Demographics: 55% White, 25% Hispanic, 15% Asian

2008 President: McCain 50%, Obama 48% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

LD-109: Rancho Santa Margarita, Laguna Niguel

Demographics: 74% White, 13% Hispanic, 9% Asian

2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 44% (LIKELY GOP: R+9)

LD-110: San Juan Capistrano, Dana Point, San Clemente, Camp Pendleton, Oceanside

Demographics: 63% White, 26% Hispanic

2008 President: McCain 55%, Obama 43% (SAFE GOP: R+10)

San Diego

LD-111: Vista, Carlsbad

Demographics: 63% White, 24% Hispanic, 5% Asian

2008 President: McCain 50%, Obama 48% (LEAN GOP: R+5)

LD-112: Encinitas, Solana Beach, Del Mar

Demographics: 71% White, 13% Hispanic, 11% Asian

2008 President: Obama 52%, McCain 46% (TOSS-UP: R+1)

LD-113: San Diego (purple)

Demographics: 64% White, 19% Asian, 11% Hispanic

2008 President: Obama 59%, McCain 39% (LIKELY DEM: D+6)

LD-114: San Diego (red), Lemon Grove

Demographics: 54% Whtie, 21% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 8% Black

2008 President: Obama 61%, McCain 38% (LIKELY DEM: D+8)

LD-115: San Diego (gold)

Demographics: 49% White, 32% Hispanic, 10% Black, 6% Asian

2008 President: Obama 72%, McCain 26% (SAFE DEM: D+19)

LD-116: Coronado, Imperial Beach, San Diego (teal)

Demographics: 41% Hispanic, 23% White, 17% Asian, 15% Black

2008 President: Obama 63%, McCain 36% (SAFE DEM: D+10)

LD-117: National City, Chula Vista

Demographics: 53% Hispanic, 27% White, 13% Asian

2008 President: Obama 61%, McCain 38% (LIKELY DEM: D+8)

LD-118: Santee, Poway

Demographics: 65% White, 26% Hispanic, 5% Asian

2008 President: McCain 57%, Obama 42% (SAFE GOP: R+11)

LD-119: El Cajon, La Mesa

Demographics: 71% White, 17% Hispanic, 5% Black

2008 President: McCain 53%, Obama 46% (LIKELY GOP: R+7)

• IN-Sen: An unnamed “Democratic strategist” quoted by The Hill suggests that ex-Rep. Tim Roemer (whose name hadn’t really come up before this year) is unlikely to run for Senate. Honestly, I’m not sure if the wankerish Roemer would really excite anyone… but we don’t seem to have a long list of possible names for this race.

• OH-Sen: PPP has another “everyone and the kitchen sink” primary polls, this time of the Republican senatorial primary in Ohio. In this case, the kitchen sink is named “Kenneth Blackwell,” and he comes in first in an eleventy-billion-way test, with all of 17%. I don’t think I’ve even heard Blackwell (last seen losing the 2006 gubernatorial race to Ted Strickland very badly) as a possible contender. Click the link for the other numbers.

• VA-Sen: I’ve got a new name you can root for: Tim Donner, a wealthy television production executive who is considering whether to challenge George Allen in the Republican primary. A spokesman tells Dave Catanese he’s a “couple weeks away” from making a decision. It’s not 100% clear whether he’s a teabagger, but I suspect he is, given that his mouthpiece attacked bona fide teabagger (and hopeless Some Dude) Jamie Radtke for “working in government since she graduated from college,” and because Donner thinks none of the candidates currently running “believe in the concept of a citizen legislature.” That sounds like something a teabagger trying to channel Patrick Henry might say, no? At the very least, we should be hoping he’ll rough Macaca up with a million or few.

• WV-Gov: This was expected, but it’s still an important get: State House Speaker Rick Thompson (D) scored the backing of the AFL-CIO, a key endorsement in what will likely be a low-turnout special primary. (As we noted last week, Thompson also picked up the support of a couple of teachers unions.) The election is May 14th.

• CA-36: Marta Evry at Calitics takes a look at the ActBlue fundraising numbers so far for the key Democrats in the race. The numbers are a moving target, but as of Friday, Janice Hahn had taken in $49K from 200 donors, while Debra Bowen had pulled in $41K but from a much larger 474 donors. Oh, and Marcy Winograd has now achieved joke status, with $1K raised. Also, some teabagger also joined the race, making him the fourth Republican to get in.

• Wisconsin Recall: Some very good sleuthing by Madison TV station WKOW27: The alleged mistress of GOP state Sen. Randy Hopper (the name you can’t forget) recently scored a government job, and Hopper said: “I want to keep my involvement of anything as a private matter. So, I’m going to maintain that.” He didn’t maintain that for very long, calling the station back and denying his involvement with the hiring. I’m not sure Jack McCoy ever got a witness to change his story so quickly – and incredibly. Even better, discovers WKOW, the woman in question got a 35% pay boost over the person who previously held the job. Scott Walker’s government austerity in action.

In other news, Greg Sargent says that GOP polling firm Public Opinion Strategies is in the field with a survey testing anti-union messages on recall target Alberta Darling’s behalf.

• DCCC: Biden alert! The VPOTUS was in Philadelphia on Friday, raising a cool $400K for the D-Triple-C. A long list of PA pols was in attendance, including ex-Rep. Patrick Murphy and a couple of unsuccessful 2010 candidates, Bryan Lentz and John Callahan. Also nice to see present: Arlen Specter, a guy whose age, brief tenure as an elected Dem, and inglorious exit from office would give him more than enough reason to stay away from this sort of thing forever. Too bad he didn’t have the sense to join our team decades ago!

• Redistricting Roundup:

With the bulk of census data out, redistricting stories are coming fast and furious now.

• Arkansas: Talk Business has copies of a few different congressional maps proposed by various lawmakers, as well as descriptions of some others. Click the link to have a look.

• California: Ugh, gross: One of two finalist consulting firms to help California’s new redistricting commission has hardcore Republican leanings, while two of four finalist law firms are similarly oriented. Of course, this is exactly what you risk when you leave things to a supposedly independent panel (that features a ridiculous level of Republican over-representation).

• Florida: One Democratic consultant thinks that Florida’s population growth suggests that new districts (the state is getting two) could be anchored to regions that would favor two Republicans in particular: ex-LG Jeff Kottkamp and state Sen. Paula Dockery. Kottkamp lost the GOP primary for AG last year, while Dockery dropped out of the gubernatorial primary.

• Iowa: The Hawkeye State’s independent redistricting commission will release its first proposes congressional and state maps on March 31st. (Remember, IA loses a House seat.) As the Des Moines Register points out, “Either chamber of the Iowa Legislature or Republican Gov. Terry Branstad can reject proposals twice. If they don’t like the third, the Iowa Supreme Court decides the boundaries.”

• Louisiana: A bunch more proposed maps have been released by the state lege. Republican state House Speaker Jim Tucker’s plans can be found here, while Democratic state Senate President Joel Chaisson’s are toward the end of this document.

• Missouri: Show Me State lawmakers are starting their work on redistricting, but if they don’t have a congressional plan by May 13th, then it’ll get kicked over to the courts. State legislative maps aren’t due until September.

• Mississippi: I’m not really sure I’m getting this: The NAACP is suing the state of Mississippi over its redistricting plans, but the legislature hasn’t even passed anything yet. It seems like this case would fail from the get-go on ripeness grounds (i.e., a court would say that the dispute isn’t ready to be heard because the plaintiff doesn’t have actual maps to complain about), so I’m not really sure what the NAACP’s angle is here.

• Pennsylvania: PoliticsPA talked to some insiders who are crediting Dave Wasserman’s sources and saying that his most recent map is apparently pretty close to the plan that the state’s Republicans are supposedly reaching consensus on. (Maybe both share the same sources, though – who knows?) Click through for all the details. The most salient feature is something a lot of people here have also proposed: a matchup between Jason Altmire and Mark Critz, the two most junior Democrats in the delegation, in order to deal with PA’s loss of a seat.

• Virginia: Lawmakers are potentially looking to release state legislative maps as early as the end of the month – which makes sense, since VA holds its House and Senate elections this November.

Now that I’ve been working on redistricting Nevada for some time, I figured it was time to branch out and see how Congressional maps might change next door. So I’m heading to Arizona today to explore how their map might change.

Unlike Nevada, Arizona’s redistricting isn’t done by the state legislature. Rather, an independent commission draws the lines. However that commission isn’t free of controversy, and speculation is already heating over where the new district will go.

Here’s my attempt at guessing what happens.

AZ-01 (Royal Blue)

Population: 710,180

63.6% White (68.7% VAP), 20.5% Native American (17.8% VAP)

This district stretches across most of Northern Arizona, including The Grand Canyon, Flagstaff, Sedona, and Navajo Territory. AZ-01 is currently represented by “tea party” Republican Paul Gosar, but from 2009 to 2010 Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick represented this district.

In redoing AZ-01, I was presented with a bit of challenge. How do I preserve the integrity of Northern Arizona while finding enough voters to meet the population requirement? And keep it at least relatively competitive?

So I added most of Mohave County (just Lake Havasu City was left out) to AZ-01, and shifted Pinal, Graham, and Greenlee Counties into the new AZ-09 district. (More on that later.) And thankfully, I was able to keep the Native American population above 20% here.

Sorry, but I just didn’t have the time to pore over the Arizona Secretary of State’s archaic precinct archives. Over the weekend, I just eyeballed county level election results and voter registration stats to estimate PVI and voting trends. And here, I’d peg the new AZ-01 at close to R+10, with Obama getting about 42-44% of the vote here in 2008. But remember, Arizona PVI figures are deceiving, as John McCain overperformed in his home state (compared to the other Southwestern states) in 2008. And since Ann Kirkpatrick won with similar partisan hurdles in 2008, it probably isn’t impossible for a Democrat to win this district again.

Early Race Rating: Likely Republican

AZ-02 (Army Green)

Population: 710,023

68.4% White (73.8% VAP)

AZ-02 now starts in Lake Havasu City in Southern Mohave County, then takes in heavily Republican La Paz County, then jumps into Maricopa County to take in the Western Phoenix Suburbs mostly covered by Legislative Districts (LDs) 4, 9, and 12. LD 4 is heavily Republican, and the GOP has just over an 11% registration edge in LD 9. In LD 12, however, Republicans only have a 5% registration edge, and Independents outnumber both parties.

Still, Trent Franks probably has nothing to worry about here… At least for now, as older white Republicans continue to flock to the retirement communities here.

Early Race Rating: Safe Republican

AZ-03 (Magenta)

Population: 709,789

78.6% White (81.6% VAP)

At first glance, this should be a district Ben Quayle will be quite happy with. The new AZ-03 overlaps with most of LDs 6, 7, 8, 10, and some of LD 11, with all but LD 10 sporting huge GOP registration advantages.

However, there’s a little kink here. While North Scottsdale and Fountain Hills are heavily Republican, they’re currently represented by Republican David Schweikert in AZ-05. With Schweikert moved to AZ-03 under this map, will Arizona Republicans prefer him representing this district over the more controversial Quayle, who only scored 52% as other Arizona Republicans romped to easy victories last year? Will David Schweikert, a more seasoned Phoenix area pol viewed as more mainstream, be seen as a safer bet in a seat that the GOP really shouldn’t lose? Or will North Phoenix be happy enough with Ben Quayle to keep him in place?

Early Race Rating: Safe Republican (but safe for whom?)

AZ-04 (Deep Red)

Population: 710,184

64.3% Latino (57.8% VAP), 21.7% White (27.7% VAP)

Not much changes here, as the mostly Latino urban heart of Phoenix is kept intact, along with the more Latino heavy neighborhoods of Glendale. This seat is most likely Ed Pastor‘s for as long as he wants it.

Early Race Rating: Safe Democratic

AZ-05 (Bright Yellow)

Population: 710,453

63.1% White (68.1% VAP)

This district overlaps with most of LDs 11, 17, and 20, along with parts of LDs 8, 15, 16, and 18. It combines rich, Republican heavy Paradise Valley with brainy, Democratic leaning Tempe, along with some diverse Central Phoenix neighborhoods and increasingly Latino heavy West Mesa precincts.

Basically, this is your quintessential swing district. Most likely this district will have about even PVI come 2013. Even “Native Son” John McCain couldn’t muster any more than 51% in its current incarnation, which includes more GOP dominant North Scottsdale and Fountain Hills.

So will David Schweikert decide to move here to continue representing AZ-05? Or as I suggested above, will he move to AZ-03 and opt for a safer seat? I’m sure the Arizona GOP doesn’t want to cede any seats in redistricting, but The East Valley has been trending more Democratic of late, and Ben Quayle did come fairly close to losing in a banner Republican year. And not to mention, The Independent Redistricting Commission will be under intense pressure to draw more competitive districts.

So the Arizona GOP may not have any other choice but to accept they’ll have to fight hard to keep AZ-05.

Early Race Rating: Tossup

AZ-06 (Teal)

Population: 709,964

67.3% White (71.7% VAP)

Even though Jeff Flake is now running for US Senate, the Arizona GOP need not worry about this district falling. AZ-06 is now entirely within Maricopa County, but it mostly overlaps strongly Republican LDs 18, 19, 21, and 22.

While Chandler and Mesa are slowly diversifying as more Latino and Asian-American families seek affordable housing there, the fast growing, affluent, and heavily Mormon suburb of Gilbert will probably remain strongly Republican enough to keep AZ-06 in GOP hands in the next decade. But over time, it will be interesting to see if this area becomes more competitive as the more close-in East Valley suburbs (like Tempe in AZ-05) grow more Democratic.

Early Race Rating: Safe Republican

AZ-07 (Silver)

Population: 710,696

59.3% Latino (53.5% VAP), 30.7% White (36.9% VAP)

Raul Grijalva had the political scare of his life last fall when he only mustered 50% against previously unknown teabagger darling Ruth McClung. Previously, his reelection campaigns were much easier… But then again, that was before Arizona started making political headlines in taking national immigration policy into its own hands. And perhaps as AZ-07 becomes more Latino and less rural under this map, Grijalva won’t be so vulnerable again in the future.

In this map, AZ-07 loses GOP heavy La Paz County, as well as a Republican leaning chunk of Pinal County. Instead, the district picks up more Latino and Democratic friendly precincts in urban Maricopa County, then turns south to Pima County, and now takes in all of Latino heavy and strongly Democratic Santa Cruz County. (Previously, some of Santa Cruz was in AZ-08.)

Depending on how long Arizona’s immigration controversy continues and how angry Arizonans remain at Raul Grijalva for his early support of an Arizona boycott over SB 1070, there may still be a possibility of future competitive races here. But as I said above, I suspect the possibility won’t be as high as the district becomes less white and less rural.

Early Race Rating: Likely Democratic

AZ-08 (Sky Blue)

Population: 710,510

65.6% White (70.1% VAP)

It was the bullet felt around the world. When Gabrielle Giffords was shot at a “Congress on Your Corner” event in January, discussion immediately began on the ramifications of the increasingly violent nature of American politics today.

Fortunately, Gabby Giffords survived and is now recovering from the near fatal attack that did happen to leave 20 other victims wounded and another 6 people dead. And today, there is even speculation on Giffords possibly running for higher office, such as US Senate, even as other Democratic Members of Congress recently held a fundraiser for Giffords’ AZ-08 2012 campaign.

Honestly, I have my doubts as to whether Giffords can recover in time to run for Senate. But should she be able to run for House again, she will probably have an easier time in this new AZ-08. For one, it’s now entirely within Pima County. (No more rural stretches of Pinal or Cochise Counties.) Also, it includes more urban and Democratic friendly neighborhoods in Tucson.

However AZ-08 probably still has an even or slightly Democratic PVI at best due to the number of more affluent and Republican Tucson suburbs and exurbs still in this district. Most of LDs 25, 26, and 28 are in this district, along with some of LDs 29 and 30. LDs 26 and 30 lean Republican, but LDs 25, 28, and 29 lean Democratic. So it won’t be a totally easy ride for Giffords, and it will probably be a little more difficult to hold if there’s another open seat election in the immediate future. But if the Arizona GOP shoots itself in the foot with another teabagger nominee, they can probably only do so much here.

Early Race Rating: Likely Democratic if Giffords runs again, Leans Democratic if Giffords retires or runs for another office

AZ-09

Population: 710,218

61.3% White (65.5% VAP)

So we end with the new district. With so much of Arizona’s phenomenal growth in the last decade occurring in increasingly exurban Pinal County, I decided to base AZ-09 here, add some exurban Maricopa County areas (like Queen Creek), and expand it to a small part of Gila County, and to all of Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise Counties. Now just remember, appearances can be deceiving.

This area may appear to be quite Republican, but voter registration remains close. (Republicans add up to a slight edge, but there’s a large number of Independent voters here.) John McCain carried this district by (likely mid-) double digits in 2008, but Janet Napolitano won by an even greater margin in 2006.

So I think the right Democrat can at least make this district competitive, especially as the Pinal and Maricopa portions mature and become more suburban and diverse. But until that happens, Republicans probably have the edge here.

Early Race Rating: Likely Republican

In all, I created 4 absolutely safe districts, with the other 4 at least holding the potential to become competitive races next year. Did I get it wrong? If you’re more of an Arizona expert than I, please feel free to critique me and let me know if there are items to be fixed and improved.

I don’t want to bury the lede, so just check this out from Republican Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice David Prosser:

As the deeply divided state Supreme Court wrestled over whether to force one member off criminal cases last year, Justice David Prosser exploded at Chief Justice Shirley Abrahamson behind closed doors, calling her a “bitch” and threatening to “destroy” her. …

“In a fit of temper, you were screaming at the chief; calling her a ‘bitch,’ threatening her with ‘…I will destroy you’; and describing the means of destruction as a war against her ‘and it won’t be a ground war,'” [Justice Ann Walsh] Bradley wrote in a Feb. 18, 2010, e-mail to Prosser and others.

Prosser acknowledged his outburst, but said he was justified – and then proceeded to blame it on the woman he had verbally assaulted:

“I probably overreacted, but I think it was entirely warranted…. They (Abrahamson and Justice Ann Walsh Bradley) are masters at deliberately goading people into perhaps incautious statements. This is bullying and abuse of very, very long standing.”

Ordinarily, a state supreme court race would be a bit too down in the weeds even for SSP, but the April 5th contest between Prosser and JoAnne Kloppenburg has special resonance. Prosser is part of the court’s 4-3 conservative bloc – a bloc whose control over the court could be erased with a Kloppenburg victory. While the election is officially non-partisan, I haven’t hesitated to pin party labels on Prosser: He was a Republican member of the state Assembly for almost two decades, and even served as Speaker for a time. He’s been a consistent right-wing vote on the court, and went so far as to say he deserved re-election because he’d be a Scott Walker lackey:

Our campaign efforts will include building an organization that will return Justice Prosser to the bench, protecting the conservative judicial majority and acting as a common sense compliment [sic] to both the new administration and legislature.

The “new administration and legislature” Prosser is referring to of course means Walker and the Republican-controlled state Senate and Assembly. Walker’s union-busting legislation will ver likely come before the high court, and Prosser recently went even further and accused his opponents of wanting “someone on the Court who will be an almost automatic vote against anything that comes out of the new legislature” – which of course can only suggest he thinks he’s just the opposite.

Kloppenburg is relying on public financing, which means she cannot accept monetary donations. Fortunately, third-party groups are springing into action, including the liberal Greater Wisconsin Committee, which is up with an ad hitting the themes I’ve discussed here:

Prosser himself is already on the air, and right-wing groups are sure to fire back (the Club for Growth spent $321K during the primary). This will be a hard race to win, but it’s an important one to focus on.

P.S. One site you should definitely be following for this race is Illusory Tenant.

I was working on an extended redistricting of Texas, but I accidentally closed out the file! I had saved it using an .RTF, but I don’t know how to open it (can anyone help with that??). But anyway, I did take a photoshot of Southern Texas before I closed out, and I think it might be worthwhile to examine what redistricting will look like along the border.

I used the 2010 Census numbers for this, so all follow the VRA. I also plugged in the partisan data for TX-23 and found that if you attach the district to San Angelo, you get a Obama 44% district and VAP of 59% Hispanic. Pretty cool!

I drew an extra fajita strip (purple) that went about 49% for Obama, while being around 60% VAP. The other Hispanic districts (TX-15, 20, 28, 35) are all around 70% VAP. The new TX27 (green) is safe for Farenthold (back-of-the-envelope calculations say that it went 41% for Obama).

Also, as you can see, McCaul is significantly safer, it’s now a 38% Obama district. However, and this is important, the estimations under the partisan data are wildly different than the actual Census numbers: the district is actually far more Hispanic under the 2010 numbers. In fact, it’s only 60% white VAP, and less so with the total numbers. Austin is far more Hispanic that one would imagine.

Also, Carter is made a lot safer in his district by removing Killeen to the super-duper red TX-11.

So tell me what you think! Sorry I don’t have the rest available–I will if someone helps me out. I do think this is what’s going to happen, though.

By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

The black vote is one of the most reliably Democratic constituencies out there. Blacks commonly give Democratic candidates more than 90% of the vote; Democratic presidential candidates in 2000, 2004, and 2008 won 90%, 89%, and 95% of blacks respectively.

Blacks were as reliably Democratic as ever in the 2010 midterm elections. The black vote undoubtedly saved many a Democrat from defeat. Exit polls indicate that 89% of blacks nationwide voted for a Democratic congressman.

In California, however, blacks seemed to have been quite a bit more Republican than this.

More below.

The table below indicates the black support, according to exit polls, gained by Republicans in California’s statewide races:

2010   Black Vote	Democratic	Republican
Nationwide   (House of Representatives)	89	9
California   Governor	77	21
California   Senator	80	17

This can be graphed as below:

Now, a word of caution before analyzing these results: exit polls are notoriously unreliable. It is entirely possible that a bad sample skewed these results (although since it appears that the polls for the two California races were separately done, this may be less likely).

If the exit polls prove correct, however, California blacks voted significantly more Republican than blacks elsewhere in the nation. Generally speaking, it is quite a feat for a Republican to get more than 15% of the black vote.

Yet in 2010 Republican candidates in California did this twice. These were not especially impressive candidates; both lost pretty badly. Nevertheless, they got a degree of black support one would only expect Republican to pull during a landslide victory.

Whether this degree of black support is something recent, or  whether blacks in California have  always voted this way, is hard to  tell. According to exit polls, in 2008 they gave 94% of the vote to the Democratic candidate. In 2004 they gave 86% of the vote for Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer (this   was an election she won by a landslide). On the other hand, in 2004 a relatively paltry 70% voted for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides (who lost by a landslide). To round these numbers up, Senator John Kerry got 81% of the black vote that year.

Looking at the results does seem to indicate that blacks in California have been consistently more Republican than blacks nationwide, if not to the extent they were in 2010.

There are several reasons why this might have happened. Several years ago a blogger named dreaminonempty did a fascinating analysis, in which (s)he found that the blacks living in extremely non-black states tended to support Democrats less. For instance, blacks residing in states with higher black populations were more disapproving of President George W. Bush. This was the graph the blogger created:

Califonia is a state with a relatively low black population. Moreover, blacks in California are unusually integrated and getting more so. Places traditionally associated with the black community are rapidly diversifying. For instance, today Oakland is barely more than one-fourth black and Compton is less than one-third black.

California, then, constitutes a good example of dreaminonempty’s hypothesis. Its relatively racially integrated communities may have something to do with a less monolithically Democratic black vote.

Republicans should not start celebrating yet, however. Their relative strength amongst the black vote has very little to do with Republican success at appealing to minorities, and much more to do with the characteristics of California’s black community. If the party is ever to regain competitiveness in California, it must begin reaching out to minorities. Judging by the 2010 election results, this is still a challenge the party has yet to overcome.

Previously, I created a 24R-12D map predicting Texas redistricting.  Since then, my reading of the tea leaves (mostly Aaron Pena’s party switch) has convinced me to revise my predictions somewhat.  At the very least we can expect the state to pass a more Republican friendly map, which will almost certainly be challenged in the courts.  Something close to the previously drawn map might be enacted if the state loses the court battle.  This map then is more of a prediction of what the state might pass before the court battle.  

The map has the following objectives:

1) Keep all incumbents with their base voters, except McCaul.

2) Draw a Republican safe district for McCaul.

3) Draw a new non-VRA Republican safe district for Farenthold in Corpus Christi.

4) Draw two new Republican safe districts in Harris and Johnson.

5) Draw two VRA swing districts for Canseco and Pena in south Texas.

6) Draw a new VRA Democratic safe district in DFW.

7) Draw a VRA Democratic safe district in Austin.

The data is based upon the 2010 census.  For the partisan data, I matched the precincts that matched the 2008 test data precincts, and then I used regression models based upon the county level voting and demographics for each of the parties on the remaining precincts.  Based upon residual analysis and validation data sets, this approach appears to be pretty accurate.  Here are the maps with the pretty colors.  (I used only nine colors that I duplicated each four times.)

The state.

Greater Houston.

DFW.

Central Texas.

The Valley.

El Paso.

CD 1: (Yellow) [31% Obama – 69% McCain, Wh 64%, Bl 18%, Hisp 15%] Tyler based district for Gohmert.

CD 2: (Brown) [42% Obama – 58% McCain, Wh 50%, Bl 22%, Hisp 15%] Northeast Harris/Jefferson based district for Poe.

CD 3: (Silver) [42% Obama – 58% McCain, Wh 52%, Bl 11%, Hisp 20%] Plano based district for Sam Johnson.

CD 4: (Indigo) [31% Obama – 69% McCain, Wh 69%, Bl 11%, Hisp 14%] Rockwall based district for Hall.

CD 5: (Blue) [41% Obama – 59% McCain, Wh 55%, Bl 15%, Hisp 26%] Dallas based district for Hensarling.

CD 6: (Red) [33% Obama – 67% McCain, Wh 65%, Bl 13%, Hisp 18%] Ellis County/Arlington based district for Barton.  

CD 7: (Violet) [45% Obama – 55% McCain, Wh 53%, Bl 9%, Hisp 26%] Houston based district for Culberson.  There is almost certainly a way to make this district safer than currently drawn.  

CD 8: (Silver) [24% Obama – 76% McCain, Wh 74%, Bl 6%, Hisp 16%] Montgomery County based district from Brady.

CD 9: (Silver) [71% Obama – 29% McCain, Wh 13%, Bl 29%, Hisp 43%] Houston based district for Al Green.

CD 10: (Brown). [40% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 70%, Bl 4%, Hisp 22%] Austin/West Texas district for McCaul. Previously, I drew McCaul to Johnson County.  However, since I am no longer drawing West Texas districts for both Canseco and a VRA-protected Democrat, I had more real estate for McCaul to the West.

CD 11: (Yellow) [31% Obama – 69% McCain, Wh 60%, Bl 3%, Hisp 33%] Midland based district for Conaway that now helps crack Austin.

CD 12: (Blue) [39% Obama – 61% McCain, Wh 56%, Bl 8%, Hisp 32%] Fort Worth based district for Granger.

CD 13: (Gren) [24% Obama – 76% McCain, Wh 69%, Bl 6%, Hisp 21%] West Texas based district for Thornberry.  

CD 14: (Red) [36% Obama – 64% McCain, Wh 57%, Bl 11%, Hisp 28%] Galveston based district for Paul.

CD 15: (Silver) [67% Obama – 33% McCain, Wh 9%, Bl 0%, Hisp 89%] Hidalgo County based district for Hinojosa that now goes into Cameron.  In the previous 24-12 map, several comments noted that a similar district may be too Hispanic.  However, based upon my reading of Lulac v. Perry, this was not established.  If there is another court case that established that districts may not be too Hispanic, then please let me know.  

CD 16: (Red) [66% Obama – 34% McCain, Wh 13%, Bl 2%, Hisp 82%] El Paso based district for Reyes.

CD 17: (Orange) [37% Obama – 63% McCain, Wh 60%, Bl 15%, Hisp 21%] College Station/Waco based district for Flores that now goes East. Chet Edwards could make a comeback, but I doubt it.

CD 18: (Green) [84% Obama – 16% McCain, Wh 10%, Bl 45%, Hisp 40%] Houston based district for Jackson.

CD 19: (Violet) [27% Obama – 73% McCain, Wh 57%, Bl 5%, Hisp 36%] Lubbock based district for Neugebauer.

CD 20: (Violet) [65% Obama – 35% McCain, Wh 17%, Bl 6%, Hisp 74%] San Antonio based district for Gonzalez.

CD 21: (Red) [41% Obama – 59% McCain, Wh 52%, Bl 9%, Hisp 34%] San Antonio based district for Smith.

CD 22: (Orange) [40% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 48%, Bl 13%, Hisp 24%] Sugar Land based district for Olson.

CD 23: (Indigo) [51% Obama – 49% McCain, Wh 28%, Bl 3%, Hisp 65%] North Bexar based district for Canseco.  As noted previously, this district is very similar to his current district, and Democrats will likely win it back before the end of the decade.

CD 24: (Yellow) [38% Obama – 62% McCain, Wh 59%, Bl 10%, Hisp 19%] Southlake/Coppell based district for Marchant. This district is significantly safer than his current district.

CD 25: (Orange) [64% Obama – 36% McCain, Wh 35%, Bl 11%, Hisp 50%] Austin based district for Doggett is now VRA protected.

CD 26: (Orange) [36% Obama – 64% McCain, Wh 67%, Bl 7%, Hisp 18%] Flower Mound/Denton based district for Burgess that no longer cracks the African American community in southeast Fort Worth.

CD 27: (Blue) [47% Obama – 53% McCain, Wh 31%, Bl 3%, Hisp 65%] New Hidalgo based VRA district for Pena.  This district is obviously the biggest case against this map, because it retrogresses the old CD 27 and split Nueces County. If not ruled out by the courts though, it would be a huge Democratic target that they would have an excellent chance of winning before the end of the decade.

CD 28: (Brown) [73% Obama – 27% McCain, Wh 6%, Bl 0%, Hisp 93%] Laredo based district for Cuellar.  Previously, I drew this one less safe.  However, if the Republicans are going to pack, then they will almost certainly pack with Cuellar, who is probably in good shape no matter what.  

CD 29: (Blue) [63% Obama – 37% McCain, Wh 12%, Bl 10%, Hisp 76%] Houston based district for Gene Green.

CD 30: (Indigo) [74% Obama – 26% McCain, Wh 21%, Bl 46%, Hisp 27%] Dallas based district for Eddie Bernice Johnson that now goes into the African American communities in East Arlington and Southeast Fort Worth.

CD 31: (Indigo) [44% Obama – 56% McCain, Wh 63%, Bl 7%, Hisp 22%] Williamson County based district for Carter.

CD 32: (Violet) [44% Obama – 56% McCain, Wh 59%, Bl 10%, Hisp 22%] North Dallas based district for Sessions.   Like CD 24, this district is significantly safer than his current district.

CD 33: (Green) [34% Obama – 66% McCain, Wh 64%, Bl 12%, Hisp 19%] New Johnson County based district for some Republican like Brian Birdwell.  

CD 34: (Green) [71% Obama – 29% McCain, Wh 15%, Bl 18%, Hisp 64%] New Dallas based VRA district for some Democrat like Royce West or Rafael Anchia.

CD 35: (Brown) [40% Obama – 60% McCain, Wh 45%, Bl 5%, Hisp 47%] Corpus Christi based district for Farenthold.  It is no longer a VRA district since it extends north.

CD 36: (Yellow) [35% Obama – 65% McCain, Wh 51%, Bl 11%, Hisp 28%] New Harris County based district for some Republican like Dan Patrick or Debbie Riddle.

Overall 24 R – 10 D – 2 Swing.

I imagine that there are several Democrats worried about such a map as this one, and they are hoping the Obama DOJ and/or Lulac is prepared to prosecute such a map. While I do hope such a map is prosecuted, since it clear cracks Nueces, I actually think that this may be Nietzsche map for Democrats.    In the previous 24-12 map, there was not a single swing district for Democrats to target, whereas in this 24-10-2 map there are two in South Texas.  I am sure most Democrats would prefer 2 safe districts rather than 2 swing districts, which is the net difference between the two maps.  However, Democrats would probably spend upwards of $2-$4 million every other year in South Texas on 2 districts that will likely turn Democratic eventually.  That could dramatically improve the local parties in Hidalgo and Bexar, which is necessary for the state to turn blue.  A similar example would be Martin Frost’s district.  Yes, Democrats lost one of their best congressmen.  However, many Dallas Democrats will point to the money spent on the 2004 CD-32 race as one of the reasons for Dallas turning solidly blue, which it is today.  Furthermore, Dallas Democrats are likely to get back a district similar to Frost’s old district in this round of redistricting anyway.  So, in the end, Dallas Democrats lost a powerful congressman for 6 years, while they rapidly built themselves into a powerful local party that claims most of the county positions.  Meanwhile Republicans gained a backbencher named Kenny Marchant.  Certainly having your backs up against a wall in swing districts is not the preferred method of party building.  However, there is no doubt that well-built turnout operations in Bexar and Hidalgo would pay dividends at the top of the ticket.

[UPDATE 1] I should have mentioned this originally.  I would be remiss in not giving lots of credit to Greg Wythe.  His posts on Lloyd Doggett and Aaron Pena were inspirations for CDs 25 & 27 on this map.  Also, rdelbov has been predicting a similar set of districts in South Texas for some time.

[UPDATE 2] I found this map at RRH, which is pretty similar but ever so slightly more friendly to Democrats.  In any case, it leads me to believe even more that this is something the Texas GOP might try.

[UPDATE 3] Thanks to Kuff and Greg for the links to this diary.  To those of you coming to this diary from their links, welcome.