Tag: Texas

I know that it’s easy here at Swing State Project to get seduced by all the glitz and glamour of U.S. House races. (That sounds hilarious when you think about how incredibly nerdy it sounds, but, well, there’s a kernel of truth there.) Bear with me for a minute, though, as we drop down to the real meat and potatoes of American politics: state legislatures. I’ll try to keep everyone updated in future months about developments in some of the biggest contests, but here’s a primer to start with.

Here are some reasons why you should very much care. First, the states are often the crucibles for experimentation with progressive policy. That’s especially been the case over the last few decades of Republican domination at the national level, although hopefully that will change once we actually have a progressive trifecta in Washington.

Consider where the movement toward civil rights and marriage or civil union rights for gays and lesbians has occurred: it’s been purely at the state level. If and when truly universal health care happens, given the difficulty of getting it through Congress, it’s most likely to happen in some of the states (and the some of the boldest moves in that direction have already occurred in the states, such as in Vermont and Oregon… and not coincidentally, back when they had MDs for governors).

Also, the state legislatures are our bench for federal office. The GOP may be the party of wealthy self-funders popping out of nowhere, but the Democrats are largely a meritocratic bunch and many of our best have stints in the state legislature on their resume, where they honed their skills and built their networks. Just as one example, consider what the guy who, four years ago today, was representing the 13th District of the Illinois State Senate is up to now.

Finally, in most states, the state legislatures control the redistricting process, not just for themselves but for U.S. House districts as well. The entire shape and terrain of the nationwide electoral battlefield for the entire 2010s will be determined by who has control of the legislature in key states following the 2010 election. This is partly why we were so hosed during the early 2000s: GOP-held legislatures in states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan drew remarkably GOP-favorable maps. And even when the blue wave came in 2006, the pro-GOP gerrymanders probably saved them the loss of even more seats.

Some GOP-held legislatures are ready to flip now; others have the Democrats in a somewhat deeper hole, but a sustained push over two electoral cycles can have the Democrats in control in 2010. Let’s take a look at the key playing fields for this year and the next few years, starting with Republican-held legislatures that are within striking distance. (The rank order is mostly gut-level, although I did use some informal metrics involving the size of the state, how close the gap between the two parties is, and how much is at stake for that state with 2010 redistricting.)

Democratic offense

1) New York Senate

30 Democrats, 32 Republicans (62 total)

1 to tie, 2 to flip (Republicans would sort-of break the tie, as Joe Bruno is both Senate Majority Leader and Acting Lt. Governor because of David Paterson having become Governor, although he still gets only one vote)

Two-year terms, no term limits

Constituents per seat: 311,000

I think most prognosticators would agree with me that this is one is currently the big enchilada. The Republican edge in the Senate, resulting from the long-term presence of GOP lifers in seats that Dem-leaning areas (seriously… 7 of the GOP senators have been in place since the 1970s), has allowed Joe Bruno to single-handedly act as a brake on implementing the progressive agenda in New York.

Moreover, the opportunity for a Democratic trifecta in Albany (Dems currently control the Governor’s seat, and the Assembly by a wide margin) in 2010 would mean complete control over the redistricting process, and an opportunity to dislodge any remaining GOP Congressmen in New York. (Although it’s looking likely that there won’t be more than two or three left after the 2008 election!) New York is predicted to lose two house seats after the 2010 census, and the blow can be softened by making sure both are GOP-held seats.

We’ve edged two seats closer to takeover since the 2006 election via two special elections (in SD-7 on Long Island and SD-48 in far north Upstate). All 62 seats are up this year; unlike most other Senates, in New York, Senators serve two-year terms and are up for re-election every cycle. Robert Harding at the Albany Report has begun an ongoing series handicapping the competitive Senate races, and also started an excellent series of diaries profiling each of the Senate districts.

Of Harding’s most competitive seats, 8 of the 10 are currently GOP-held; the top two are SD-15 and S-11, two seats in heavily Democratic Queens held by GOP oldsters (Serphin Maltese and Frank Padavan). While polling of individual districts hasn’t begun, a Quinnipiac poll released yesterday found that, statewide, voters prefer a Democratic State Senate to a Republican one by a margin of 51 to 35.

2) Texas House

71 Democrats, 79 Republicans (150 total)

4 to tie, 5 to flip

Two-year terms, no term limits

Constituents per seat: 157,000

The Texas House has been controlled by Republicans since 2003. As you probably recall, their first order of business was to engage in the mid-decade DeLay-mander that led to the Dems’ electoral wipeout in 2004 (although several victims of that wipeout have managed to claw their way back into the House). Texas is predicted to gain as many as four seats in the U.S. House through 2010 reapportionment, and given the Texas GOP’s skill at creating bizarre tapeworm-shaped districts, it’s possible that, if we don’t have a seat at the redistricting table, all four of those seats could wind up GOP-leaning. (Given how close the House is, that seat is much likelier to come there than via the Governor or the Senate, where we’re in a deeper hole at 11 D/20 R.)

In addition, in terms of implementing policy, the House Speaker (currently Tom Craddick) is basically the most powerful person in Texas politics, much more so than the Governor. Four seats may seem a little steep – and this may wind up being a two-cycle project, although given the stakes, it’s critically important to follow through – but given the rapid demographic changes occurring in Texas (the same ones that are suddenly putting TX-07 and TX-10 within reach) it’s doable.

3) Pennsylvania Senate

21 Democrats, 29 Republicans (50 total)

4 to tie, 5 to flip (Lt. Governor, currently Dem, breaks tie)

Four-year terms, limit of two terms, half elected each election

Constituents per seat: 249,000

The Pennsylvania Senate is definitely a two-cycle project, as only half of the 50 seats are up for election in 2008, and it’ll be hard to turn more than one or two this year. I’m listing this as high as #3 because Pennsylvania is, after New York, the largest blue state where one of the legislative bodies is Republican-controlled. Like New York, this is because of old-school Republicans hanging on in areas that have long since gone Democratic, at least at the presidential level (Delaware, Montgomery, and Bucks Counties in particular). A prominent example is Majority Leader Dominic Pileggi, who represents part of Delaware County.

In addition, Pennsylvania is projected to lose another seat in the U.S. House in 2010, so control of the redistricting process will be key. (Hellish redistricting in 2000 managed to turn their U.S. House delegation from 11 R-10 D in 2000 to 12 R-7 D in 2002. Of course, spreading the seats as thin as they did wasn’t that wise, as we got the last laugh in 2006, flipping four seats.)

4) Nevada Senate

10 Democrats, 11 Republicans (21 total)

1 to flip

Four-year terms, limit of three terms, half elected each election

Constituents per seat: 119,000 (except for two multi-member seats)

Nevada is a smallish state, but it ranks high on this list because it’s so closely divided (only one seat needs to change hands to flip control to the Democrats). The Democrats already control the state Assembly by a safe 27-15 margin, and given Jim Gibbons’ problems, may well take back the Governor’s seat in 2010, in which case flipping the Senate would give them the trifecta.

Nevada is also important from a redistricting standpoint, as it will be gaining a seat in 2010. We have a good shot to create three Dem-leaning seats in Clark County, each of which contain part Las Vegas and part suburbs, so, again, control of the redistricting process is key.

5) Tennessee Senate

16 Democrats, 16 Republicans, 1 Independent (Speaker is R)

1 to flip

Four-year terms, half elected every election

Constituents per seat: 183,000

Tennessee’s Senate is one of two tied legislative bodies right now (Oklahoma’s Senate is the other one), but the Republicans currently control the Speaker’s seat (Ron Ramsey won the Speaker vote 18-15, including the support of one Dem). This is on the list because a shift of one seat would give the Democrats control (assuming that Rosalind Kurita, the Dem who flipped would vote for a Democratic speaker in the event of a clear Democratic majority). Democrats already control the House and the Governorship.

This is a bit lower on the list because Tennessee is expected to retain nine House seats in 2010. Changes around the margins, however, could either work toward making existing Democratic seats safer, or else trying to make TN-07 competitive.

Others to watch

The Michigan Senate would be near the top of the list, as we’re down 17 D-21 R and only need to pick up two seats to tie it (where the Dem Lt. Gov. would break the tie). Michigan has one of the most pro-GOP gerrymanders in the nation, which will need to be undone in 2010. However, we can’t do anything about it yet because no Senators are up for election in 2008; all 38 stand in 2010.

The Virginia House of Delegates is a ripe target, especially in view of having just taken over the Virginia Senate. We’re down 45 D-53 R-2 I (the Independents both caucus GOP), so a swing of six would give us the trifecta. This election, however, won’t happen until 2009.

As I mentioned, the Oklahoma Senate is also tied, split 24-24. We maintain functional control over the Senate because of the Democratic Lt. Governor, however (although a power-sharing agreement gives the Republicans control during the month of July, believe it or not).

Wisconsin’s Assembly is within reach, with Dems down 47 D-52 R. And both chambers in Arizona are close (13 D-17 R in the Senate, and 27 D-33 R in the House); Arizona is set to gain two seats in 2010, but redistricting control isn’t at issue as the decisions are up to a nonpartisan commission.

Democratic defense

Now let’s take a look at legislatures where we’re going to have to play defense. I don’t foresee this being a cause for alarm, given broader Democratic strengths this cycle, but the fact that we currently control 57 legislatures to the GOP’s 39 means that we do need to watch our backs.

1) Pennsylvania House

102 Democrats, 101 Republicans (203 total)

1 to flip

Two-year terms

Constituents per seat: 61,000

A strong gust could tip the Pennsylvania House back to Republican control (especially considering that, although the Democrats control the chamber, they elected a Republican as speaker in a compromise). Looking at the sheer numbers of Republicans left in the Dem-leaning Philly burbs, the general trends point in our direction, but at only 61,000 constituents per seat, local-level dynamics can make all the difference.

2) Michigan House

58 Democrats, 52 Republicans (110 total)

3 to tie, 4 to flip

Two-year terms, limit of three terms

Constituents per seat: 92,000

In Michigan, the Dems hold the House and the Governorship, although both somewhat tenuously. Controlling the trifecta in 2010 is extremely important, as the pro-GOP gerrymander in the U.S. House seats needs to be undone (the split went from 9 D-7 R in 2000 to 9 R-6 D in 2002, where it persists today). Michigan is predicted to lose one more seat in 2010.

3) Indiana House

51 Democrats, 49 Republicans (100 total)

1 to tie, 2 to flip

Two-year terms

Constituents per seat: 63,000

The Democratic margin is Indiana is very narrow, and the only thing keeping the GOP from controlling the trifecta (the GOP has solid control over the Senate, at 33 R-17 D). Indiana is not predicted to lose a U.S. House seat in 2010, but a GOP gerrymander could make life much more difficult for the three Dem House members representing red districts in Indiana.

4) Oregon House

31 Democrats, 29 Republicans (60 total)

1 to tie, 2 to flip

Two-year terms

Constituents per seat: 62,000

Democrats in Oregon finally took back the House in 2006, giving them the trifecta (they have solid control over the Senate, at 19 D-11 R). This is on the list mostly by virtue of how close it is on paper, but the disparity wasn’t much of an impediment on Speaker Jeff Merkley’s ability to push through progressive legislation. With strong Obama coattails and the Republicans defending several suburban open seats, look for the Democrats to gain a few seats (as Skywaker9 at Daily Kos has thoroughly detailed). However, Oregon is set to gain a House seat in 2010, with the possibility of a 5-1 delegation if the Dems divvy up Portland correctly, so holding the trifecta through 2010 is important.

5) Illinois House

67 Democrats, 51 Republicans (118 total)

8 to tie, 9 to flip

Two-year terms

Constituents per seat: 109,000

Illinois doesn’t actually seem in that much danger this year, with a decent-sized cushion and major Obama coattails. The main reason this is on the list as opposed to a chamber with smaller margins is that Illinois is set to lose a U.S. House seat in 2010, and although we currently control the trifecta, we don’t want the GOP anywhere near the redistricting table.

A few other bodies are worth mentioning: the Virginia Senate (21 D-19 R), Louisiana House (53 D-49 R-1 I-2 V), and Mississippi Senate (27 D-25 R) are all very close, but these are all off-year elections and won’t be an issue until 2009.

(You might be wondering what our safest chamber is. I’d say it’s the Hawaii Senate, which we control 22 D-3 R.)

“Moneyball” opportunities

Finally, I wanted to turn my attention to several more pickup possibilities, which I’m calling the “moneyball” states. These tend to be the smallest states, where redistricting isn’t an issue because each one only gets one U.S. House seat, so they aren’t high priorities for us. On the other hand, these are the chambers that can be flipped for the smallest possible investment. I calculated this simply by multiplying the number of seats needed to flip by the number of constituents per seat (and thus the presumed expense of flipping a seat). Two of these cases (Delaware and Montana) would actually give the Dems the trifecta in those states.

1) Montana House

49 Democrats, 50 Republicans, 1 Constitution Party (100 total)

1 to tie, 2 to flip

Constituents per seat: 9,000

Moneyball number: 18,000

2) Delaware House

19 Democrats, 22 Republicans (41 total)

2 to flip

Constituents per seat: 21,000

Moneyball number: 42,000

3) North Dakota Senate

21 Democrats, 26 Republicans (47 total)

3 to flip

Constituents per seat: 14,000

Moneyball number: 42,000

4) South Dakota Senate

15 Democrats, 20 Republicans (35 total)

3 to flip

Constituents per seat: 22,000

Moneyball number: 66,000

5) Alaska House

17 Democrats, 23 Republicans (40 total)

3 to tie, 4 to flip

Constituents per seat: 17,000

Moneyball number: 68,000

There’s a real shortage of information out there at the national level about individual state legislature races, so if anyone of you out there know of any blogs or individual diarists that excel at handicapping state legislature races, please let us know in the comments and we’ll be sure and keep up with them as we approach November.

In 2004, George Bush took 62% of the vote in Texas’ 10th Congressional District. In 2006, Michael McCaul was held to 55% by a poorly funded Democrat and a relatively well funded Libertarian. My own polling a week before the election found 7% undecided, but the challengers had no funds to close the deal and undecided stayed with the incumbent. As a disclaimer, and an illustration of the funding issue, I did $90 in robocalls for the challenger, Ted Ankrum, in the closing days.

For the 2008 race, in polling on June 2, 528 likely voters gave McCaul a 5.4% lead over Democratic challenger Larry Joe Doherty. McCaul received 51.7% to Doherty’s 46.3%, with 2.0% undecided.

TX-10 is described as a ‘barbell district’ due to having a large chunk of the district in Travis County (Austin), a large chunk in Harris County (Houston) and a thin strip of highway frontage in between. In 2006, Harris went 71-26 for McCaul and Travis went 56-38 for Ankrum. In this poll, McCaul takes Harris 63-33 and Doherty takes Travis by the same 63-33. Travis is the slightly larger end of the TX-10 barbell, but the ‘bar’ in between went 70-30 for McCaul, resulting in a McCaul lead.

Of note, I also polled Obama-McCain and Cornyn-Noriega in this district and found those races to be more favorable to the other Republicans than they are to McCaul. Cornyn leads Noriega 54-44 and McCain leads Obama 55-41. Statewide, my past results have been more in line with Baselice than SurveyUSA or Rasmussen on these races, but I do not have current statewide numbers to report.

Historically, turnout in this district doesn’t include large numbers of Latinos or African-Americans. In this poll, both groups went with Doherty, Latinos by 2-1 and African-Americans by 7-1. If Obama at the top of the ticket increases African-American general election turnout as he has in the primary, and these additional voters follow through on the down-ballot races, Doherty could close the gap even further. Increased Latino turnout in the primary was mainly a reflection of Clinton’s popularity, but there is a possibility that Noriega could also increase Latino turnout for the general, further benefitting Doherty.

There is no significant gender gap in these results, but age is a factor. Voters under 40 go with the Democrat in each race. Voters from 40-59 go with the Republican by small margins. Voters over 60 go Republican in all cases, but margin is much larger in races for President and Senator.

528 likely voters polled 6/2/2008, margin of error 4.3%

 

So I realized that so far, the Senate races I’ve been following have all been in low-population states with relatively cheap media markets: Alaska, Idaho, Nebraska, Oklahoma.

Now, I have to figure out how to “scale up” my interpretations of information–fundraising, cash-on-hand, poll numbers, poll undecideds, (dis)approval/familiarity ratings…

Like, for example, a 10-point deficit in poll numbers is one thing in Nebraska, but is it the same thing in Texas?  If not, how does it depend on money and candidate familiarity?  Obviously, I’m thinking about the fact there’s a ton more people in Texas, and the media markets probably cost more (I know that Alaska and Idaho have cheap media markets, though I’m not sure about Nebraska or Oklahoma).

Got any suggestions?

Michael Skelly made news recently by reporting extremely robust fundraising for a first time Democratic challenger in a traditionally Republican district. A high dollar DC pollster surveyed the race back in February and found him trailing incumbent John Culberson 52 to 33, with 16% undecided. After voters heard ‘positive bios’ for both candidates, that became a tie at 44. With the recent flurry of news on Skelly’s fundraising, I thought I’d poll the race and see if there had been movement. Skelly’s campaign has been out blockwalking, and I have noticed many online ads, but I don’t think they have done any traditional advertising at this point.

My poll asked a series of questions about possible presidential matchups, the Senate race and finally the CD7 race. I also asked about the 2004 Bush/Kerry vote, which came back 64/36 for Bush, in line with the actual results for the district. Of the presidential matchups, Obama did slightly better than Clinton against McCain, but the Republican held a large lead in both matchups.

In the CD7 race, I identified each candidate’s party, which may explain the unexpectedly low undecided response. Only 4% said they were undecided, with Culberson receiving 57% to Skelly’s 39%. On the other hand, there was a significant amount of mixed-party support in various forms. Some went with Cornyn and Skelly, others with Noriega and Culberson, some that went Democratic for president but Republican for the lower ticket races and some that went McCain, Noriega and Skelly. Less than half supported all three Republicans, though that is probably the best spin for the Democrats to come out of this poll. Enough voters are willing to consider a non-Republican, but a Democratic candidate would need flawless execution and a little luck.

For CD7, the older the voter, the more likely the support for Culberson. Voters under 40 were +8 for Culberson, 40-59 were +18 and 60+ were +23. There was no gender gap, as Culberson got the same percentage from both men and women. Non-white percentages are too small to provide meaningful crosstabs, but Skelly does lead Culberson here.

For the Senate race, Cornyn leads Noriega 58 to 39 in the district. Despite the similar results, about 6% of Cornyn’s support went with Skelly, and a similar amount of Culberson’s support went with Noriega. In general, the Noriega/Culberson flippers have a higher percentage of older women than average, and the Cornyn/Skelly flippers have a higher percentage of men than average, not concentrated in any one age group.

536 polled 4/8/08, Margin of error 4.2%

Direct link

Continuing through the alphabet.

Texas has 32 representatives: 19 Republicans and 13 Democrats

The filing deadline was Jan 2, and the primary was March 4, with a runoff on April 8, where needed

District: TX-01

Location Eastern TX, bordering LA and a tiny bit of AR, including Tyler

Representative Louie Gohmert (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 68-30

2004 margin 61-38

Bush margin 2004 69-31

Notes on opponents In 2004, Gohmert ousted Max Sandlin, each spent about the same ($1.8 mill for Gohmert, $1.6 for Sandlin).  The 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents No Democrats

Demographics 55th most rural (49.1%), 72nd lowest income (median = $33K), 90th most Blacks (18.9%), 25th most Republican

Assessment Free ride

District: TX-02

Location Oh, the odd shapes of TX districts!  This one mostly runs east west, from the LA border (and the Gulf) west to outer Houston.  But it also extends north a bit.

Representative Ted Poe (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 66-33

2004 margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 63-37

Notes on opponents In 2004, Poe ousted Nick Lampson, spending $1.5 million to Lampson’s $2.4. The 2006 opponent raise little

Current opponents No Democrats

Demographics 94th most Blacks (19%), 74th most Republican

Assessment Free ride

District: TX-03

Location North central TX, including Plano and Garland

Representative Sam Johnson (R)

First elected  1991

2006 margin 63-35

2004 margin 86-8-6 against minor parties

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Tom Daley raised $5K, $3K COH;  Johnson has $750K COH

Demographics 61st highest income (median = $61K), 61st fewest veterans (9.5%), 25th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-04

Location Northeastern TX, bordering OK and AR, including Texarkana

Representative Ralph Hall (R)

First elected  1980

2006 margin 64-33

2004 margin 68-30

Bush margin 2004 70-30

Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Nickerson raised $200K to Hall’s $1.1 million, in 2006, Glenn Melancon raised less than $100K

Current opponents Glenn Melancon is running again; he has raised $25K but has no COH; Hall has $350K COH, not much for an incumbent with a challenger

Demographics  44th most rural (50.4%), 25th most Republican

Assessment Long shot, but not totally long…. Hall is getting old (born 1923 – he is the oldest person in the House) and his fundraising has been anemic.

District: TX-05

Location Shaped like a C; the inner-top of the C is near Dallas, it goes south and then east, and also east directly from Dallas

Representative Jeb Hansarling (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-33

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Notes on opponents neither raised much

Current opponents No Democrat

Demographics 34th most Republican

Assessment  Free ride

District: TX-06

Location Shaped sort of like a boot, with an added doodad on top, the top of the boot is south and west of Dallas, it extends south about 100 miles and then east

Representative Joe Barton (R)

First elected  1984

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 66-33

Bush margin 2004 66-34

Notes on opponents In 2004, Morris Meyer raised $100K to Barton’s $1.8 million.  The 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents Ludwig Otto

Demographics 42nd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-07

Location Western outskirts of Houston

Representative John Culberson (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 64-33

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Notes on opponents In 2006, Jim Henley raised $122K to Culberton’s $700K

Current opponents Michael Skelly has (this is interesting) raised $465K (almost all from individuals) to Culberson’s $322K (almost half from PACs).  Even more interesting, Skelly has more COH: $400K to $82K

Demographics 70th highest income (median = $58K), 66th fewest veterans (9.9%), 33rd most Republican

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it the 75th most vulnerable Republican seat

District: TX-08

Location The southern part of eastern TX, bordering LA

Representative Kevin Brady (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 69-30

Bush margin 2004 72-28

Notes on opponents  Jim Wright ran both times, and raised little

Current opponents Kent Hargett

Demographics 45th lowest income (median = $40K), 10th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-09

Location Part of Houston and southern suburbs

Representative Al Green (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 72-27

Bush margin 2004 30-70

Notes on opponents In 2004, Arlette Molina raised $133K to Green’s $838K

Current opponents No Republican

Demographics 28th fewest veterans (7.1%), 13th fewest Whites (17.4%), 54th most Blacks (37%), 64th most Latinos (32.8%), 12th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (mostly 11% Asians), 45th most Democratic

Assessment Free ride

District: TX-10

Location A long, narrow district running from Austin almost to Houston

Representative Michael McCaul (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 55-40 (most of rest to a Libertarian)

2004 margin 79-15-6 against minor parties

Bush margin 2004 62-38

Notes on opponents In 2006, Ted Ankrum raised only $64K

Current opponents Larry Joe Doherty has raised $447K, almost all from individuals.  McCaul has raised about $500K, 40% of it from PACs. Each has about $100K COH

Demographics 77th highest income (median = $52K), 85th most Latinos (18.7%), 61st most Republican

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it the 62nd most vulnerable Republican seat; Doherty is a TV star, so has good name recog, and seems to be a good fundraiser

District: TX-11

Location Western TX, bordering (a little) on NM, including Odessa, Midland, and Brownwood

Representative Mike Conaway (R)

First elected 2004

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 77-22

Bush margin 2004 78-22

Notes on opponents no money

Current opponents No Democrat

Demographics 60th lowest income (median = $33K), 50th most Latinos (29.6%), 4th most Republican

Assessment Free ride

District: TX-12

Location Part of Ft. Worth, and western and northern suburbs

Representative Kay Granger (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 67-31

2004 margin 72-28

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Tracey Smith (no fundraising info).  Granger has about $120K COH.

Demographics 63rd most Latinos (23.7%), 50th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-13

Location Northern panhandle, bordering OK and NM

Representative Mac Thornberry (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 74-23

2004 margin 92-8 against a Libertarian

Bush margin 2004 78-22

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Roger Waun , who lost in 2006, is running again

Demographics 72nd lowest income (median = $34K), 4th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-14

Location Most of the Gulf Coast of TX

Representative Ron Paul (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Notes on opponents In 2006, Shane Sklar raised $550K to Paul’s $1.5 million

Current opponents No Democrat

Demographics 60th most Latinos (24.9%), 50th most Republican

Assessment Free ride

District: TX-15

Location Southern TX, between the Gulf and Mexico, but bordering neither

Representative Ruben Hinojosa (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 62-24-15 (two Republicans)

2004 margin 58-41

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Eddie Zamora has $720 (no K) COH; Hinojosa has $300K

Demographics 6th lowest income (median = $27K), 59th fewest veterans (9.3%), 18th fewest Whites (19.7%), 64th fewest Blacks (1.7%), 2nd most Latinos (77.6%) (only TX-16 is higher), fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino (1%)

Assessment Safe

District: TX-16

Location Westernmost TX, bordering NM and Mexico, including El Paso

Representative Silvestre Reyes (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 79-21 vs. a Libertarian

2004 margin 68-31

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents No Republican

Demographics 43rd lowest income (median = $31K), 13th fewest Whites (17.4%), most Latinos (77.7%)

Assessment Free ride

District: TX-17

Location Another TX district with twists, but it’s south of Dallas and centers on Waco

Representative Chet Edwards (D)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 58-40

2004 margin 51-47

Bush margin 2004 70-30

Notes on opponents In 2004, Arlene Wohlgemuth and Edwards each had about $2.5 million; in 2006, Van Taylor raised $2.5 million to Edwards $3.1 million

Current opponents Rob Curnock (no funding info), Edwards has raised about $1.3 million and has about $1 million COH

Demographics 18th most Republican

Assessment  Vulnerable.  On the DCCC list . Superribbie ranks it the the 18th most vulnerable Democratic seat.  It will be interesting to see Curnock’s fundraising report

District: TX-18

Location Shaped sort of like a Q, in Houston and suburbs

Representative Sheila Jackson Lee (D)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 77-19

2004 margin 89-6-5 vs. minor parties

Bush margin 2004 28-72

Notes on opponents no money

Current opponents John Faulk has only about $5K COH, Lee has over $200K

Demographics 40th lowest income (median = $31K), 41st fewest veterans (8.3%), 17th fewest Whites (19.7%), 32nd most Blacks (40.1%), 43rd most Latinos (35.6%), 37th most Democratic

Assessment safe

District: TX-19

Location Another weird shape…like a W with extra squiggles.  Borders NM in the west, then jiggles around eventually almost reaching the OK border; includes Lubbock

Representative Randy Neugebauer(R)

First elected  2003

2006 margin 68-30

2004 margin 58-40

Bush margin 2004 77-23

Notes on opponents In 2004, Charlie Stenholm raised $2.5 million to Neugebauer’s 3.2 million.  The 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents Dwight Fullingim (no funding info), Neugebauer has $440K COH

Demographics 46th lowest income (median = $32K), 53rd most Latinos (29%), 4th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-20

Location San Antonio and a odd shaped area around it

Representative Charlie Gonzalez (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 87-13 against a Libertarian

2004 margin 65-32

Bush margin 2004 45-55

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Robert Litoff (no funding info), Gonzalez has about $175 K COH

Demographics 51st lowest income (median = $32K), 31st fewest Whites (23.4%), 9th most Latinos (67.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: TX-21

Location Mostly west of San Antonio, but also north and east of San Antonio, towards Austin

Representative Lamar Smith (R)

First elected  1986

2006 margin 60-25-9 (two Democrats)

2004 margin 61-30

Bush margin 2004 66-34

Notes on opponents In 2006, John Courage raised $350K to Smith’s $1.6 million

Current opponents No Democrat

Demographics 25th most veterans (16.8%), 71st most Latinos (21.3%), 33rd most Republican.

Assessment Free ride

District: TX-22

Location Oh, I dunno…. a bowtie with one strand loose? Mostly south of Houston

Representative Nick Lampson (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 52-42

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Notes on opponents In 2006, Sekula-Gibbs raised $900K to Lampson’s $3.6 million

Current opponents Pete Olson raised about $810K but has only $114K left, and $170K in debt.  Lampson has about $740K COH

Demographics 48th highest income (median = $58K), 42nd most Republican

Assessment Vulnerable. On the DCCC list .   Superribbie ranks it the the most vulnerable Democratic seat.  This is Tom DeLay’s old seat.  Lampson  has a fundraising edge (as of mid-February) but now that the Republican primary is over, this will get hot

District: TX-23

Location Western TX, except for El Paso, borders Mexico and NM

Representative Ciro Rodriguez (D)

First elected 2006

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents In 2006, Rodriguez ousted Bonilla, although Bonilla had $3.8 million and Rodriguez less than $1 million. This district changed a lot in 2006 and before, and Rodriguez used to represent part of it

Current opponents Lyle T. Larson has $124K COH.  Rodriguez has about $660K.

Demographics 74th lowest income (median = $34K), 47th fewest Whites (30%), 13th most Latinos (65.1%).

Assessment Vulnerable. On the DCCC list

District: TX-24

Location Shaped like a T between Dallas and Ft. Worth

Representative Kenny Marchant (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 64-34

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Tom Love has almost no COH; Marchant has $400K COH and $125K in debt

Demographics 47th highest income (median = $56K), 42nd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-25

Location Austin and southern and eastern suburbs

Representative Lloyd Doggett (D)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 67-26

2004 margin 68-31

Bush margin 2004 46-54

Notes on opponents In 2004 Rebecca Armendariz Klein raised $800K to Doggett’s $2 million.  The 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents George Morovich (no funding info); Doggett has $2.5 million COH

Demographics 94th fewest veterans (10.8%), 98th fewest Whites (52.9%), 45th most Latinos (33.9%)

Assessment Pretty safe

District: TX-26

Location   A square with two sticks, running north from Ft. Worth to the OK border

Representative Michael Burgess (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 66-33

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Ken Leach , no funding info.  Burgess has only $39K COH.

Demographics 74th most Republican

Assessment Well, we’re not favored….but… Burgess got 75% in 2002, 66% in 2004, 60% in 2006…who knows?

District: TX-27

Location The southern Gulf coast

Representative Solomon Ortiz (D)

First elected  1982

2006 margin 57-39

2004 margin 63-35

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Notes on opponents Willie Vaden ran both times, raising about $50K in 2004 and $100K in 2006. Ortiz got around $700K each time

Current opponents Willie Vaden again (no funding info).  Ortiz has about $250K COH

Demographics 41st lowest income (median = $31K), 34th fewest Whites (27.6%), 8th most Latinos (68.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: TX-28

Location Southern TX along the Mexican border

Representative Henry Cuellar (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Jim Fish ($150 COH), Cuellar has about $42K COH, but $100K in debt

Demographics 17th lowest income (median = $29K), 49th fewest veterans (8.7%), 20th fewest Whites (20.3%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 3rd most Latinos (77.5%)

Assessment probably safe

District: TX-29

Location If you can describe this shape, you’re good! East of Houston

Representative Gene Green (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 74-24

2004 margin 94-6 against a Libertarian

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Eric Story, who lost in 2006, has $833 COH; Green has $554K

Demographics 48th lowest income (median = $32K), 28th fewest Whites (21.9%), 10th most Latinos (66.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: TX-30

Location Dallas and southern suburbs

Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 80-18

2004 margin 93-7 against a Libertarian

Bush margin 2004 25-75

Notes on opponents Little money

Current opponents Fred Wood (no funding info) Johnson has about $150K COH

Demographics 72nd lowest income ($34K), 45th fewest veterans (8.4%), 28th fewest Whites (21.9%), 30th most Blacks (41.4%), 43rd most Latinos (34.2%), 31st most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: TX-31

Location North and west of Austin

Representative John Carter (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 58-39

2004 margin 65-32

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Notes on opponents In 2004, Jon Porter raised little.  In 2006 Mary Beth Harrell raised $207K to Carter’s $900K

Current opponents Brian Ruiz , no funding info.  Carter has about $130 COH

Demographics 29th most veterans (16.4%), 33rd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-32

Location Shaped like most of a circle, near Dallas

Representative Pete Sessions (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 56-41

2004 margin 54-44

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Notes on opponents In 2004, Martin Frost raised $4.8 million to Sessions’ $4.5 million.  In 2006, Will Pryor raised $500K to Sessions’ $1.8 million

Current opponents Eric Roberson has about $3K COH, Sessions has about $860K COH

Demographics 53rd fewest veterans (8.9%), 90th fewest Whites (50.1%), 40th most Latinos (36.2%), 86th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

Something is going on in the Houstin area that is making local and national Democrats take notice. Michael Skelly, Democratic candidate for the 7th Congressional District is seeking the seat once held by George H.W. Bush, according to the

Politico.

Democrats have been increasingly bullish about their ability to win over suburban, ancestrally Republican House districts that have been trending in their party’s direction over the past decade.

But their party’s latest target shows just how confident Democrats have become. Democrats are eyeing one of the most reliably Republican seats in the heart of Texas — Rep. John Culberson’s suburban Houston district, once held by President Bush’s father — and have a candidate who is causing a stir due to his prolific fundraising.

Businessman Michael Skelly is positioned to be at the top of the Democratic fundraising list for the year’s first quarter, according to a Democratic operative, raising about $750,000 from individual donors without even tapping into his substantial personal wealth. Another Democratic operative said it could be the “best first quarter ever” for any House Democrat in his first filing period.

Currently, the seat is rated “Safe Republican” by Congressional Quarterly, but we have a candidate who is taking the race seriously, and perhaps so should we.

On Tuesday, in additional to their presidential primaries, Texas and Ohio will host congressional primaries. Here are a few of the key races to watch:

• OH-02 (GOP): Will Mean Jean Schmidt survive her primary against state Rep. Todd Brinkman? Let’s hope so!
• OH-02 (Dem): Will voters give Victoria Wulsin, a doctor who narrowly lost to Schmidt in the general last time, a second shot? Or will they instead turn to attorney Steve Black?
• OH-10 (Dem): Can Dennis Kucinich hang on in a crowded primary? Cleveland City Councilman Joe Cimperman, regarded as Special K’s main challenger, channelled the best of the Club for Growth in accusing Kucinich of “eating sushi with Sean Penn.” Meanwhile, Dennis – who once explained his refusal to pay his DCCC dues by saying “Some people make a lot of money for the party, others make a lot of issues” – has managed to rake in $800K for his campaign coffers now that his political career is on the line.
• OH-18 (GOP): I’m almost reluctant to include this race. The Republicans targeted Zack Space the day he got elected. The problem is, they don’t have a candidate who rates higher than “extremely pathetic” on the official Sad-Sack Scale. None have raised more than about $100K, while Space has raked in $1.2 million. Well, we’ll get to find out who gets to be the sacrifical lamb here.
• TX-10 (Dem): Who will get to take on the under-performing Mike McCaul, international affairs consultant (and regular netroots participant) Dan Grant, or attorney and TV judge Larry Joe Doherty?
• TX-22 (GOP): A huge field of wannabees are lining up to challenge Rep. Nick Lampson. Amazingly, after her embarrasing two-month stint as representative after winning the special election in 2006, Shelly  Sekula-Gibbs (aka Snelly Gibbr) has hauled in a million bucks. I’m certainly rooting for her!

What other races are you looking at?

Google Alerts are da bomb.  They bring all sorts of interesting sites to my attn.  For example, this video comes via Blogging All Things Brownsville, a blog I didn’t know about that seems to be a great place to keep track of, well, All Things Brownsville…

Follow me below the fold for a couple of other interesting items the Google sent my way.

Just in case you were suffering from the impression that the tantrums coming of late from the Imperial Petulancy were on the level, you can rest easy.

The Junior Senator from Texas doesn’t seem to think that his one and only represented constituent, W, was seriously worried about Congress not getting anything done.  As Vince from Capitol Annex notes, he’s urging his fellow Republicans to bloviate more from the floor.

Oh, yeah, that’ll help move things along in the Senate.  Should ratchet things up to the speed of watching paint dry.

And, a final treat to close out this entry, the Walker Report has some fantastic pics from the doings in Eagle Pass where approx 200 statewide Dems got together.

Fred Thompson’s officially in the GOP primary race for President, now, and so far, he’s the clear leader in the heavily Republican South.

Alabama: Thompson 31%, Giuliani 26%, McCain 16%, Gingrich 8%, Romney 3%, Undecided 13% (ARG 7/30-8/2 MOE +/-4%)
Georgia: Thompson 27%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 14%, Gingrich 13%, McCain 7%, Huckabee 3%, Brownback 2%, Paul 2%, Undecided 12% (ARG 8/2-8/6 MOE +/-4%)
Kentucky: Not polled. Borders Tennessee.
Louisiana: Not polled.
Mississippi: Not polled.
North Carolina: Thompson 30%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 12%, McCain 7%, Other 7%, Undecided 23% (PPP (D) 8/1-8/2 MOE +/-4%)
South Carolina: Rudy Giuliani 26%, Fred Thompson 21%, John McCain 12%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Mitt Romney 9%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Sam Brownback 2%, Ron Paul 2%, Undecided 12% (ARG 8/26-8/28 MOE +/-4%) – Note: 3 other polls in August (PPP, Rasmussen, Clemson U) have Thompson leading by 1-4%
Tennessee: Fred Thompson 45%, Rudy Giuliani 15%, Newt Gingrich 11%, John McCain 10% (InsiderAdvantage 3/31-4/1)
Texas: Fred Thompson 25%, Rudy Giuliani 21%, Mitt Romney 15%, Mike Huckabee 13%, John McCain 8%, Ron Paul 5%, Other 8%, Undecided 5% (IVR 8/29 MOE 4.1%) – Note: Past Primary Voters polled
Virginia: Only poll was in February, and Thompson wasn’t even an option.
Arkansas: Only poll was in March, with Huckabee having a massive lead.

Florida, of course, is very different from the rest of the South – latest numbers there (Rasmussen) are Rudy Giuliani 30%, Fred Thompson 17%, Mitt Romney 15%, John McCain 7%, Mike Huckabee 5%.

So far, it looks like Thompson has a well-defined Dixie powerbase, comparable to Romney’s popularity in the Mormon Mountain States (UT, ID, NV, and the unpolled WY) but much larger (Romney also holds IA, NH, and MI so far). Giuliani, however, still holds a massive lead in the Big Blue states (NY, CA, IL, NJ, PA) and swing states like FL, OH, MO, NM, CO, OR, WI, and WA.

Just four Republican members of Congress had the courage late last week to vote for a bill requiring that U.S. troops stationed in Iraq be deployed by next April.  Mike McCaul was not among those showing such courage.  Instead, he voted to keep taxpayers’ sons and daughters mired in the escalating violence while the Baghdad government continues to enjoy its summer-long vacation.

For Central Texans who have been watching Mr. McCaul put his rubber stamp on the White House’s failed public policies for the past four years, his vote last week was no surprise.

Nor will his next move be – introducing a measure calling for the adoption of the Iraq Study Group’s recommendations from last year, now that those recommendations are no longer viable, if they ever were.

This isn’t leadership.  It’s followership.  And followership isn’t good enough.

When I went to Iraq in 2005, it wasn’t because I was a fan of President Bush or his war.  I’m not.  But I had spent the previous years working for small-d democracy from Kosovo to Afghanistan, and I thought I might contribute in some small way to help the Iraqi people consolidate their peace so that our own troops could come back home where they belong.

I worked on the elections of October and December that year – historic successes in the midst of the violence, failure, and disappointment that have marked the U.S. presence there.  In a rare collective act of hope and bravery, Sunni and Shiite alike went to the polls to choose a legitimate government in a free, fair, and open process, and the overwhelming public sentiment was to carry on with more elections in an effort to rebuild their nation.

Like millions around the world, I now realize that the Bush Administration and its congressional allies considered the elections little more than a photo op.  No wonder they didn’t take advantage of the momentum that had started.  The newly elected Iraqi government saw no reason to have more elections that could undermine its new power.  The Iraqi public, hungry to make its voice heard again, never got that chance.  The White House failed to push for more democratic change in Iraq.  And without pressure from either government, the elections ministry where I worked collapsed into a cycle of score-settling personal vendettas and political purges.

Press releases instead of progress.  Spin over substance.  Flashbulbs, declarations of mission accomplished, and endless requests for just a little more time to turn things around.  It’s not enough.

Along with thousands of brave soldiers and hundreds of other civilians from around the world, I tried to play a role in bringing positive change to Baghdad.  But it wasn’t enough. The elections I worked on were allowed to fade away, like sowing seeds on dust.  The best efforts of our troops, our team of international experts, and our good-hearted Iraqi friends didn’t end the war.  We simply installed a government bent on entrenching itself every bit as violently as Saddam Hussein had.

But I’m one of the lucky ones.  I’ve come back home.  And now I’m asking you to send me to Congress so that, together, we can make sure our brave troops come home soon, too.

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