Tag: Texas

I’ll admit it, my jaw dropped when I read it. Republicans control every statewide office in Texas along with the State Senate (19-12) and State House (by a very narrow 76-74 margin), so why would they consider giving up full control over congressional redistricting, or a commanding 4 out of 5 places at the redistricting table should the State House shift further in 2010? After all, this is Texas, land of the DeLay-mander.

But it’s true. A bill introduced by State Senator Jeff Wentworth (R! – North San Antonio/South Austin) is designed to give control of congressional redistricting to an independent panel. The bill has previously passed the State Senate twice but has failed in the State House because former Speaker Tom Craddick said so (no really, this is a good example of how he operated and why he needed to go). New Speaker Joe Straus (R-North San Antonio) seems interested.

http://www.texasmonthly.com/bl…

Sen. Jeff Wentworth’s redistricting commission bill, which has passed the Texas Senate twice, has a fighting chance this session since Tom Craddick’s no longer speaker.

Wentworth, who presented his bill to the Senate State Affairs Committee, tells me he has confirmed pledges from six of nine Senate committee members to vote for his plan to turn congressional redistricting over to an independent commission. He gave a compelling – if lengthy – argument at State Affairs today for a new congressional redistricting mechanism, noting that lawmakers of both parties have been guilty of overreaching, vengeful actions that lead inexorably to expensive court appeals every decade.

He’s optimistic about his chances in the House, since it died there last session since “Craddick personally killed it.”  Here’s the story: Wentworth had pledges from more than a majority of the House committee, but chairman Joe Crabb told him Craddick had instructed him to sit on the bill. Wentworth then collected signatures form 20 House chairman in support of his bill, but Craddick wouldn’t relent. Why? Wentworth says Craddick instructed him to go read  “Craddick vs. Smith” – a 30-year-old lawsuit over Craddick’s mistreatment during redistricting at the hands of Democrats. (Wentworth’s bill doesn’t touch legislative redistricting, but oh well, ….)

Wentworth also claims that Gov. Rick Perry “wants to sign this bill.”

If this passes, the previous maps that have been discussed could be trashed, and in 2012 we could realistically see a congressional delegation from Texas made up of 16 Democrats and 20 Republicans.

Crossposted at Daily Kos

With the 2010 Census just a year away and the next round of nationwide redistricting two or three years away, I’ve decided to start looking at the redistricting situations in different states and begin some conversation about what kinds of changes we can expect to see. These diaries will be sporadic, and the data is always subject to change (for now, county population estimates are from 2007; 2008 numbers will be out soon, meaning my number-crunching will need constant adjusting)…but for we super-geeks, merely the discussion of redistricting and speculation on its effects will be sufficiently entertaining.

My “state focus” redistricting diaries will cover two states, usually one large and one a bit smaller.

Today, I was feeling the vibes of 2004, so we’ll delve into Massachusetts and Texas. Below the fold…

Massachusetts

The redistricting process in Massachusetts is expected to be run by the Democrats in 2011-2012, and even if Gov. Deval Patrick manages to lose to a Republican in 2010, it won’t make much difference for the sake of district maps; all ten congressional incumbents are left-of-center Democrats.

Unfortunately, Massachusetts is likely to lose one seat due to its lagging population growth. You can see the current Mass. congressional map (and it’s quite a mess; the late Bay Stater Elbridge Gerry himself would be proud) here.

So I tried to think like a Democratic state legislator forced to eliminate one of his/her own from Congress. Seeing that population growth was weakest in western Massachusetts, and that Rep. John Olver (D-Amherst) will be 76 at the 2012 election, it seemed logical to combine western Mass’s two districts and force Olver against his then-63-year-old colleague, Richard Neal of Springfield. Most think Olver would retire if pitted against Neal. The other eight seats mostly fell into place, though I dramatically redrew some of them for cleaner, more compact district lines. This was tough because four Congresspeople call Middlesex County home, yet I wanted to avoid splitting counties too many ways. It is doubtful that the legislature will be as averse to messy lines as I was, but this is a rough approximation of what I see coming out of the next round of redistricting (and yes, I think all nine seats should be comfortably Democratic):

District 1 – Olver vs. Neal

District 2 – Jim McGovern (D-Worcester) — picks up the remainder of Hampden County not covered by District 1 but anchored in Worcester County.

District 3 – Barney Frank (D-Newton) — now entirely within Middlesex County.

District 4 – Niki Tsongas (D-Lowell) — dominated by Middlesex, picks up the remainder of Worcester.

District 5 – John Tierney (D-Salem) — now entirely within Essex County, ye olde witch-hunters.

District 6 – Ed Markey (D-Malden) — dominated by Norfolk County, nabs the small remainder of Essex and enough of Middlesex to retain Markey’s home base.

District 7 – Mike Capuano (D-Somerville) — why can’t he just move to Boston? This district grabs 96% of Suffolk County, but had to eat into a tiny section of Middlesex to keep his home intact.

District 8 – Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) — this one changes significantly: it retains his base in South Boston but is now dominated by Bristol County, theoretically rendering him vulnerable to a primary challenge (not my intent by any means, but the bizarre lines in Middlesex, Suffolk, and Norfolk Counties simply had to end).

District 9 – Bill Delahunt (D-Quincy) — still the Cape Cod/Nantucket district, preserving his home in Norfolk but dominated by Plymouth and Barnstable Counties.

In the end, Massachusetts wasn’t too hard. Certainly not compared to Texas, a state of 32 seats that is expected to gain another four!

Texas

Barring a huge slowdown in migration during 2009 and before the Census on April 1, 2010 (and such a slowdown is possible), Texas should gain four seats for a whopping total of 36 districts. The Republicans currently hold the state government trifecta in the Lone Star State, but only with a fragile 76-74 lead in the state House. Democrats are bullish about winning the House in 2010.

The opportunity to prevent a wrenching repeat of the 2003 DeLaymander in Texas is an exciting one for political junkies, but if my map-making experiment (again, using 2007 estimates, so take with salt) was at all accurate, Republicans are nearly maxed-out on seats in Texas as it is. I attempted in this venture to put on my thinking cap, imagine I was a Republican state legislator, and work to protect all GOP incumbents, weaken Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Waco), and maximize GOP advantages in the four new seats…but because of where the four new seats ended up being located in my simulation, I can’t really imagine Republicans winning more than two of them. Of course, their map artistes are surely far superior in skill to me and my low-tech method, but the point stands: once all 32 incumbents were done, I found significant leftover population in urban Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston, in areas I would expect to tilt Democratic given voting trends in Harris and Dallas Counties.

The other two seats were odd rural-urban mixes that meander and should lean Republican (especially the one stretching down Central Texas from Tarrant County). Here’s the map:

Texas is so large, and its urban seats so small in area, that you can’t even see some of the 36 districts, so here are the details on each one:

District 1 – Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler) — stays safely GOP, merely contracts in area.

District 2 – Ted Poe (R-Humble) — ditto

District 3 – Sam Johnson (R-Plano) — I chose to keep this entirely within Collin County for purposes of compactness.

District 4 – Ralph Hall (R-Rockwall) — remains an odd mix of rural northeast Texas and the far outskirts of the Metroplex.

District 5 – Jeb Hensarling (R-Dallas) — snatches exurbs and small towns in East Texas, but Dallas County is still the largest population source.

District 6 – Joe Barton (R-Ennis) — looks rural on a map but is in fact dominated by Tarrant and Ellis Counties.

District 7 – John Culberson (R-Houston) — entirely within Harris County

District 8 – Kevin Brady (R-The Woodlands) — grabs 92% of Montgomery County and conservative marshy areas north of Houston.

District 9 – Al Green (D-Houston) — dominated by Houston but catches diverse parts of Fort Bend County to remain a Voting Rights Act African-American opportunity seat.

District 10 – Mike McCaul (R-Austin) — still the Austin-to-Houston seat, but weighted more toward Austin.

District 11 – Mike Conaway (R-Midland) — with 35 counties by my count, this is one rural district if ever I’ve seen one.

District 12 – Kay Granger (R-Fort Worth) — dominated by Tarrant, but kept safely GOP because of Parker and Wise Counties.

District 13 – Mac Thornberry (R-Clarendon) — no, actually, this is one rural district if ever I’ve seen one, with 44 counties wholly or partially included.

District 14 – Ron Paul (R-Surfside) — dominated by Brazoria and Galveston Counties, contracting a bit in area due to population growth.

District 15 – Rubén Hinojosa (D-Mercedes) — might be a tad whiter due to shedding some of Hidalgo County and picking up conservative areas up north, but still heavily Hispanic and Democratic.

District 16 – Silvestre Reyes (D-El Paso) — still contained in El Paso County.

District 17 – Chet Edwards (D-Waco) — I tried to think like a Republican and mess with him a bit by edging the district a bit further southeast and even into Montgomery County, but there’s only so much more that can be done to hurt this Dem survivor.

District 18 – Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) — smaller in area, but should still be a VRA “African-American opportunity seat”.

District 19 – Randy Neugebauer (R-Lubbock) — Republicans might like to make him, Thornberry, and Conaway a bit less overwhelmingly safe to help the party elsewhere, but unfortunately for the GOP, its votes are concentrated thickly in West Texas.

District 20 – Charlie Gonzalez (D-San Antonio) — still heavily Hispanic, still entirely within Bexar County.

District 21 – Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio) — I removed Travis County to 1) make him even safer, 2) allow him to concentrate his base in Bexar County, and 3) keep GOP Hill Country voters together.

District 22 – Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land) — anchored in Fort Bend but snaking into Harris and Wharton; probably safer for Olson than before but trending the wrong way long-term for his party.

District 23 – Ciro Rodriguez (D-San Antonio) — the Big Bend district is still dominated by south San Antonio and is probably a bit more heavily Hispanic.

District 24 – Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell) — links northeast Tarrant with northwest Dallas Counties to preserve suburban GOP votes.

District 25 – Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) — I think the Republicans will finally put him entirely in Travis County to pack Democratic votes and keep fast-growing Central Texas counties open for the taking. They’ve certainly given up on defeating him.

District 26 – Mike Burgess (R-Lewisville) — all of Denton County and a small slice of Tarrant.

District 27 – Solomon Ortiz (D-Corpus Christi) — really doesn’t change much; heavily Hispanic and Democratic-leaning.

District 28 – Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) — growth is so strong in Hidalgo County that this district sheds its northern reaches and becomes possibly the state’s most Hispanic seat. 90% of Cuellar’s Webb County base is preserved but he could become more vulnerable to a McAllen-area primary challenge.

District 29 – Gene Green (D-Houston) — still a tiny sliver of Harris; I assume it will stay majority-Hispanic, but that mantle could be taken up by the new 35th…I’m not familiar enough with Houston geography.

District 30 – Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas) — concentrates black neighborhoods of Dallas.

District 31 – John Carter (R-Round Rock) — growth in Williamson County has been stupendous enough that this district is becoming surprisingly small in area.

District 32 – Pete Sessions (R-Dallas) — desperately attempts to grab Republicans in north Dallas.

And now, the four new seats as I found them:

District 33 – Dallas & Tarrant Counties — this lilliputian snake of land vaguely recalls Martin Frost’s (D-Arlington) former stomping grounds, a diverse urban-suburban Metroplex mélange presumably leaning Democratic. In fact, I’m fairly sure of it electing a Democrat, as Republicans have milked every seat they possibly can out of the Dallas area.

District 34 – remainders of Tarrant County, stretches all the way to Guadalupe County near San Antonio — this is an ugly district, with a barely-visible serpentine line down Williamson and Travis Counties. It is meant to find all the Republicans not already accounted for in the 12th, 17th, 21st, or 31st, but I would certainly hope the legislature doesn’t try to draw something so incoherent.

District 35 – Harris County — unlike the masterful DeLay-led cracking of Democratic votes in Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston already has three Democratic Reps., but all in VRA opportunity seats. Is it time for a “limousine liberal” seat in Houston, or is there room for another John Culberson-like Republican?

District 36 – arches from north of Laredo through San Antonio to the coast — less bizarre than the 34th, but still an oddity, this seat’s population base is Bexar County but should elect a Republican despite its decent Hispanic population. The odd nature of this district was necessitated by VRA Hispanic seats like the 23rd and 28th dropping their “whiter” counties. If Henry Bonilla (R-San Antonio) ever wanted to stage a comeback, my 36th would be a great shot for him.

I’m not exactly pleased with some odd boundaries in this map, especially the downright psychedelic 34th District. The explosive growth in three areas — the Metroplex, Houston, and Central Texas around Austin — meant some odd leftovers when all incumbents were solidified. But the real point here is that, even if Republicans still run the process in Texas next round, their room for growth is limited. My plan might allow them as great as a 24-12 majority should they defeat Chet Edwards, but 23-13 is more likely. Perhaps an experienced Friend of Elbridge (and by that I mean a professional gerrymander-er) could craft something more advantageous, but as long as Democratic strength grows in the metro areas, protecting suburban GOP incumbents like Kenny Marchant, Kay Granger, and Pete Olson will be the utmost priority. I really think redistricting could be a wash in the Lone Star State, whether Republicans control the House or not.

The next diary will map Michigan and Nevada; after that, we’ll get Iowa and my greatest masterpiece to date, Ohio.

Texas went for McCain, big whoop. But the real story is in the margins. George W. Bush carried Texas over John Kerry by a 61%-38% margin. Four years later John McCain has carried the Lone Star state by a comparatively weak 55%-44%. The gap has shrunk by 12% points in the democrats favor.

Here’s the quick scorecard post election day:

US Senate: Cornyn 55%-43%, no change

US House: Dems – 1 for 20 R – 12 D

State Senate: Dems +1 for 18 R – 12 D and 1 outstanding (R defense)

State House: Dems +3 for 75 R – 74 D and 1 outstanding (R defense)

Dallas County moves to hard democratic, from weak democratic

Harris County (Houston) emerges as a purple county from solid republican

Tarrant County (Fort Worth) reflects the state as a whole

Bexar County (San Antonio) has a slight democratic lean

Travis County (Austin) is a liberal bastion of democrats

U.S. Senate

Rick Noriega was underfunded in his campaign. That is the first thing to say in “what went wrong.” However, I have seen some people suggesting that we could have recruited better. Considering the depth of our bench and how well (or poorly) seasoned it is in Texas, I disagree. The results form the senate race almost matched the presidential results, so this was in no way a vote of confidence for Sen. Cornyn. So, where can Rep. Noriega go from here? I have heard rumors that he is interested in more of an executive position. The obvious positions that emerge are Lt. Governor and Harris County Judge (more on that later).

U.S. House

I lost my Congressman. It sucks. More importantly, the loss of Nick Lampson is a body blow for NASA in the next congress as there are no diehard supporters of NASA in the U.S. House who hold any seniority. I’m hoping Rep. Lampson gets an appointment by the administration relating to space and aeronautics. A statewide run is not in his future because in all honesty, his campaign teams from both 2006 an 2008 were not run as the well oiled machines that several other successful campaigns have been.

A quick note on Chet Edwards won re-election against a tier 4 for opponent by a 53%-45% margin. This is a reminder, he will never be safe in the current TX-17 and it is imperative why we need to take control of the state house.

My condolences to Larry Joe Doehrty and Michael Skelly. Both were great candidates but could not overcome their districts’ PVIs, where the dial only moved a few percentage points in their favor.

Pete Sessions won re-election by the exact same margin he did in 2006 and Kenny Marchant lost several points this time around. Keep your eyes on these two, TX-24 and TX-32 may have life in them.

State Senate

WENDY DAIVS (D) WON SD-10!!!! This district is completely confined within Tarrant County and was held by cigar chomper Kim Brimer (R). Brimer spent most of the spring and summer suing Wendy to try and keep her off the ballot, he failed at least three times. I interned for Wendy last spring, and I am so proud of her, she also has the potential and background to go statewide if she wants to. There are more US Congressional district in Texas than there are state senate seats, so I doubt the Congress will be in her future. More importantly, the filibuster line for the Texas Senate was 11 members. There are now at least 12 Democrats. Good news.

Meanwhile, the special election in SD-17 will be finalized in December. Fmr Congressman Chris Bell (D) will finish off Fmr Judge Joan Huffman (R) then. A Republican spoiler filed as a democrat in the special and took 13% of the vote. Her total combined with Bell’s would have been well over 50%. If we win this come December Dems will be at 13 Senators and +2 overall. We’re not done.

State House

We lost three of our own seats, including two incumbents and one open seat. Juan Garcia (D) was elected against a corrupt R in 2006 and Dan Barrett (D) was elected in a special in late 2007. The open seat was in rural areas near College Station (home of Texas A&M). Garcia and Barrett were great guys but they both have a future somewhere in Texas politics if they really want it.

Alright, post-mortem over, we picked up six seats so far. The winners are as follows:

HD-52 (Williamson County, Round Rock) – Maldonado (D) wins an open seat 48.6%-47.4%

HD-78 (El Paso) – Joe Moody (D) wins open seat 51.5%-45.1%

HD-96 (Tarrant County) – Chris Turner beats hard right ideologue Bill Zedler 51.2%-46.6%

HD-101 (Dallas County, Mesquite) Robert Mikos (D) wins open seat 50.6%-49.3%

HD-102 (Dallas) – Carol Kent (D) beats long time incumbent Tony Goolsby 53.0%-47.0%

HD-133 (Harris) – Kristi Thibaut (D) beats Jim Murphy 50.6%-49.4%

Overall theme of the winners? Public education. Kent and Maldonado both have experience in public schools and all the rest had public education as part of their platform. Miklos and Thibaut were both surprising wins even though they were both expected to be close. Moody is 25 years old so expect to hear more from him later on. Chris Turner’s win over Zedler is a victory against partisanship, for those familiar with Virginia politics Zedler was sort of our equivalent to Cuccinnelli. Kent and Moody should be safe from here out due to how their districts are changing in democrats favor.

Meanwhile, Dallas dems have been on such a rise, a candidate who was little more than a name on the ballot may have pulled off an upset pending the recount. Bob Romano (D) is 29 votes behind immigrant hater and school voucher supporter Linda Harper-Brown in Dallas County’s HD-105. If Romano pulls this one out the House becomes a 75-75 tie. Expect Romano to face a stiff primary challenge in 2010 should he win.

Final Result? The odds of Tom Craddick remaining speaker are extremely slim. Expect a new Speaker who will allow members to bring forward legislation that is important to their districts. It’s a good day for Democracy in the Texas House.

Dallas County

Dems won everything by large margins at a county level. Obama finished just shy of 60% and so did many of the judges. Embattled Sheriff Lupe Valdez (Female, Minority, Lesbian) finished with 55%

Harris County

Houston, we have liftoff. All but three, maybe four judges got over the finish line. They are the first democrats elected county wide in Harris county since the early 90s. Joining them are our new County Attorney Vince Ryan (D), County Clerk Loren Jackson (D), and (most importantly) the lead democratic vote getter Houston City Councilman and now, Sheriff-elect, Adrian Garcia. We were 5,000 votes short in winning District Attorney and finished behind in decent margins for County Judge and Tax-Assessor/Collector. All offices should be held by Democrats within 6-8 years.

Tarrant County

No gains, but Tarrant held margins exactly even as the state as a whole. Want to take the state’s temperature? Watch Fort Worth.

Bexar County

A few judges gained in San Antonio, but nothing drastic. This county remains fairly non partisan.

Travis County

Obama won 67% in this Austin based county. Everything else followed.

A Few Other Notes

Galveston Counties is becoming more of a white flight county with margins diminishing. This is very bad news for Galveston where most offices are held by Dems. Dems barely held the open Sheriff seat 50.5%-49.5% against an underfunded, under-qualified republican. I can only hope that it is due to Democrats leaving the island from Hurricane Ike.

Democrats won their first Judge on the 1st Court of Appeals, a 14 county court that includes Harris and Galveston county then stretches out towards Austin. Congratulations Judge Jim Sharp.

Fort Bend County, home of Sugarland is moving Democratic with several 53-47 wins for the republicans. Not bad.

Fort Bend County Commissioner Place 1 has moved to the Democrats. It’s just a low level County Commissioner but I thought you all would like to know due to who won it. Netroots hero and original Dean Dozen candidate, Richard Morrison.

The Future

It’s good. Houston Mayor will be an open seat in 2009 due to term limits and I have only heard Democratic names mentioned.

The state house is 1 or 2 Dems behind from switching over and we got 1 cycle to do it. We did New York’s Senate, time for our House.

Governor. Dems started winning Harris County and that’s the greenlight. Houston Mayor Bill White should be ready to go for us. All eyes are now on Hutchison and what she chooses to do. All of Texas’ Republican politicians are in a holding position, waiting on her and what she chooses to do. Rick Perry has no term limits and wants to keep his job. As for the other offices, Former Comptroller John Sharp is supposably looking at the Senate seat and Noriega may be eyeing Lt. Gov.

Time will tell, but we’re looking good.

Updates

Some more information:

Quickly, I was horribly wrong about Denton county. It went from +40 Bush, to +26 McCain. I am thrilled by this news and personally I am determined to flip this county even if I have to take it over myself, I just graduated from Denton’s University of North Texas, so it is a bit of a vested interest.

1) Bell County. We had a good state house race here, lost it by the same margin Obama did. Very promising change in margins. Perhaps we can try again next year.

2) Major movement in Cameron County (Brownsville)

3) Several Valley districts moved Dem between 10%-20%

4) Nueces County (Corpus Christi) is still red (surprising) but less so by 10%.

5) There is a slow creep democratically across Ron Paul’s TX-14 (Corpus to Galveston). My guess is this is more of an immigration line more than anything consisting of Mexican immigrants moving north.

Time to check in on the state legislatures one more time before the election (I did a more detailed summary two weeks ago).

This week, the New York Times and the AP both had long pieces that provide good overviews of where the competitive chambers are. Interestingly, both pieces stopped to dwell on the Maine Senate, where, although Obama is poised to dominate at the top of the ticket, Democratic control (by a current 18-17 margin) could be lost. The whole chamber turns on one Dem-held open seat in York County, and public anger over a new alcoholic beverage tax. (Although doesn’t everyone in that part of the state just go get their licka in New Hampshire?)

The biggest prize, and the only state where we’ve seen actual public polling of legislative races, is still the New York Senate. There aren’t any more polls to report here, but one story of note is that Dennis Delano, the one Republican to present a serious challenge to any Democratic-held senate seat, is apparently running for office in violation of the Hatch Act, a federal law that prohibits municipal employees from running for partisan office (in this case, Delano is currently suspended from the Buffalo PD, but still receiving pay).

Our friends at the Burnt Orange Report have been closely following the Texas House race, which has provided the Democrats with an outside shot of flipping the chamber (Dems are currently down 79-71). They previously highlighted four GOP-held seats that were Lean Dem or Tossup, giving Democrats a route to a tied chamber. Recently, they upgraded one other race to Tossup: Carol Kent vs. Rep. Tony Goolsby in HD-102 in north Dallas. Although retaking the Texas House has been considered a two-cycle project, a table-running here would get it done this year. They also listed a number of Lean Republican seats that could flip with a strong-enough gale (HD-55, HD-101, HD-133, and Sherrie Matula in HD-129, whom I know has a few boosters at this site).

The Ballot Box blog at Governing Magazine has been profiling various legislatures in the past few months, and recently featured a few more, including the Ohio House. This is another one that initially seemed like a two-cycle project needing to be accomplished before 2010 redistricting, but this article seems surprisingly sanguine on a Democratic takeover, giving that a 50-50 shot. (Republicans currently control it 53-46, so four seats need to flip.) Two factors are seen at work: the Democrats’ overall advantages in the ground game here, and the disproportionate impact of term limits on the Republicans, leaving 20 GOP seats open to only 6 Democratic seats open, with particularly strong possibilities in the Democratic-trending Columbus area.

They also profile the Michigan House, which Democrats currently control by a narrow 58-52 margin. The Republicans had early hopes to flip it, what with the unpopular Granholm administration and recall efforts against some representatives including Speaker Andy Dillon. However, the same dynamic in Ohio is playing out in Michigan, on perhaps an even bigger scale: Republicans are hurt by term limits, with 29 GOP open seats compared to 16 Democratic vacancies. And the GOP is reeling from the McCain campaign’s abandonment of the state, leaving downballot operations in a vacuum.

Got any other information or predictions to share about a state legislature near you? Please chip in in the comments.

A Zoogby International poll (the phone variety, NOT the wacky internet poll) for the Houston Chronicle( http://www.chron.com/disp/stor… ) Shows Lampson 17 points down, but Culberson only 7 points above Skelly.  

It should be noted that this same poll showed massive movements to the Democrats at all levels in Harris County (a major part of Lampsons district), so Lampson’s showing is that much more ominous.

Looks like the Noriega campaign didn’t send an e-mail blast to us donors with the Oct 21 Rasmussen poll

🙁

and I missed the news.

James L. let me know that Rasmussen calls it John Cornyn 55, Rick Noriega 40.

This particular poll is probably not gonna hold up too well. It won’t be a 15 point margin, more likely less than 7 points.

In 1996, a high school government class teacher, with a pick-up truck gimmick and the same last name as the state’s Democratic Attorney General, won the Senate nomination to lose to Phil Gramm. But despite being all but ignored by elected Democrats and most Hispanic leaders in the state, Victor Morales got 44% of the vote against Phil Gramm, a seasoned politician riding the Repub growth in the state.

So 44% could be the floor for a Hispanic Senatorial candidate in Texas.

Then in 2002, after 9/11 changed everything — for that election, at least — the African-American former Mayor of Dallas was part of the Democratic Dream Team of one black, one brown, one white in the state’s three top races, er, contests. Despite spending about $10 million, Ron Kirk got only 43% of the vote against then-Attorney General John Cornyn.

So 43% could be the floor for a minority Senatorial candidate in Texas.

Rick Noriega is a much more solid and respected candidate than Victor Morales (although a bit duller!), and he’s not from Dallas (Dallas is to Texas as New York City is to the US), so his floor is probably a bit above 45%.

Add in strong Hispanic population growth. Top it off with the Obama campaign energizing the black voters, the youth, and the Presidential-primary-organized Anglo Dems, and it began to look like there was a chance.

Of course, the needed money was still missing. Cornyn has owned the airwaves while Noriega remains broke.

BTW I am borrowing heavily from an analysis of the race by Prof Richard Murray at the University of Houston, who blogs for TV13. http://prof13.abc13.com/

But it’s the economy, Woody. The state’s economy has been propped up by high oil & gas prices, the associated exploration activity, strong employment, and earnings. (No oil money in my family, alas, but 20 miles from my mother’s house you can drive through a town where the air smells of sulfurous petroleum. It’s said to stink — unless the well is in your yard. Then you collect a royalty check for the rest of your days, and the figures go up when the price of a barrel of oil goes up.) Texas also has protections for homesteads written into its Constitution and laws, which may have limited the degree and amount of funny-money mortgage lending compared to most other fast-growing states. So Texas is not yet feeling the pain too much.

In conclusion: Cornyn will get less than Rasmussen’s 55%, more like 52%. A Libertarian will get a point. Noriega will outperform Morales, Kirk, and his own earlier 43 and 44% showings in the polls, coming in around 46 or 47%.

It will be close enough that I’ll be joined on the morning on Nov 5 by others exclaiming, Damn, if only the Democrats would have put a few million into that race back in September, we could have grabbed that one!

It’s been a while since we’ve talked about state legislatures, so here are some bits and pieces on where we stand right now (if you need a primer on where the most hotly contested chambers are and what the margin of seats held is, see my previous diary here). New York remains the big prize, with Democrats within one flipped seat of a tied State Senate and two seats away from taking control. This is the only state I know of where individual races have been polled; over the past month Siena has polled 10 of the 62 races, and with one GOP-held open seat poised to fall to the Democrats, one Dem incumbent trailing a GOP challenger, and one GOP incumbent tied with his Democratic challenger, the outcome is too close to call.

In Texas, the House is possibly the next juiciest legislative target after the NY Senate, which looks more like a two-cycle project but might actually get done this year. Republicans currently hold the House 79-71. Burnt Orange Report recently put together an impressive set of projections, and it seems like a 75-75 split is possible if Dems run the table on the closest races.

They peg two Democratic challengers, Diana Maldonado (open seat in HD-52 in Austin’s northern suburbs) and Chris Turner (against incumbent Bill Zedler in HD-96 in Ft. Worth’s southern suburbs), as “Lean Dem,” with two more potential Democratic pickups at the “Tossup” level (Joe Moody in an open seat in HD-78 in El Paso and Joel Redmond in an open seat in HD-144 in Houston’s eastern suburbs). A Houston Chronicle article from yesterday seems to support this analysis; while it doesn’t delve in to specific seats, it looks at fundraising and general mood to conclude “Climate is ripe for Texas House takeover.”

There’s more over the flip…

Governing Magazine’s Ballot Box blog has, in the last month profiled some of the other most hotly contested state legislature races. One race recently profiled that presents the GOP with a takeover opportunity in an unlikely place: the Maine Senate, based on the Dems’ narrow 18-17 lead and, in an example of all politics being local, an unpopular tax on alcoholic beverages intended to pay for improved health care access. The swingiest district seems to be the 1st district in the state’s southernmost tip, matching a freshman Dem against his GOP predecessor.

The Nevada Senate is another prime pickup opportunity for the Democrats, as the GOP currently controls it by an 11-10 margin. As they point out, this turns on only two races, both involving endangered GOP incumbents, Bob Beers and Joe Heck in the suburbs of Las Vegas. Beers and Heck, if they survive, are both considered possible gubernatorial candidates, seeing as how embattled Jim Gibbons isn’t likely to try again… however, first they have to survive Gibbons’ unpopularity.

One of the Democrats’ toughest holds this year is the Indiana House, where the Dems have a 51-49 edge. This race is hard to handicap because it’s likely the Republicans will pick up a few open seats in rural areas left open by Dem retirements (including ones in West Lafayette and the rural area near Evansville), while Dems pick up a few GOP-held but Dem-heavy seats in Indianapolis (including the seat held by Jon Elrod, whom you might remember getting demolished by Andre Carson in the IN-07 special election).

The Oklahoma Senate is the closest in the nation, as it’s a 24-24 tie, although Democrats maintain control because of the Lt. Governor. Democrats face big trouble in a Dem-held open seat in Stillwater, where a former president of Oklahoma State University is the GOP nominee. However, they feel they have several possible pickups elsewhere, including in the Oklahoma Panhandle, one of the most conservative places in the country but where they’re running a professional bull rider by the name of Bowdy Peach who seems uniquely suited to the district.

In the New Hampshire Senate, Democrats hold a 14-10 edge and are likely to hold on to that. They may even add to that, starting with the seat being vacated by Joe Kenney, the GOP sad sack currently losing the New Hampshire governor’s race by a margin of about 70-10; the Union-Leader projects this seat as “Lean Democratic.”

Both chambers in Florida are heavily Republican right now, but Democrats are optimistic they might pick up a few seats in each, especially a Republican-held open senate seat near Sarasota. However, Florida Dems sound more focused on 2010, when term limits will turf out 21 House Republicans and 8 Senate Republicans.

The Tennessee Senate is one place where the Republicans may take over (despite a 16-16-1 tie, they effectively wield control already; the one independent, who claims to belong to the “NASCAR Party,” generally votes Republican). Several retirements in rural seats held by Democrats may lead to GOP pickups, such as the seat in rural areas just east of Memphis held by long-time Senate leader John Wilder since 1966.

Louis Jacobson at Stateline.org is apparently the only prognosticator who goes so far as to try to assign state legislatures to the “tossup/lean/likely” framework; he published his newest ratings yesterday. They’re mostly in line with what we’ve seen discussed above, and movements that he’s made lately have generally been in the Democratic direction. He forecasts two currently Republican-held chambers, the New York Senate and Delaware House, as being Lean Democratic. He also forecasts seven Republican-held chambers (Alaska Senate, Nevada Senate, North Dakota Senate, Arizona House, Montana House, Ohio House, and Wisconsin Assembly) as being Tossups. He forecasts one Democrat-held chamber, the Montana Senate, as being Lean Republican, and four Democrat-held chambers (Maine Senate, New Hampshire Senate, Indiana House, and Pennsylvania House) as Tossups. Finally, he forecasts the Tennessee Senate and Oklahoma Senate (both tied) as ending up in Republican hands. Some of these choices (NH Senate?) seem to turn merely on the small number of seats needed to flip the chamber, rather than broader trends in each state, but it’s an interesting starting point.

That’s a lot of information to digest… still wondering what to do? Well, the DLCC maintains its own blog, which has been, over the last few weeks, rounding up dozen of Essential Races, focusing on up-and-coming candidates in key races. You can learn more about our Democratic bench as we build it, and there are links for contributions, too.

We all know that Texas will likely go red on election night and deliver her electoral votes to John McCain. Many of us also know that Dallas County was, for many years, the heart of the Republican takeover of the Lone Star State. Things began changing two years ago when Democrats swept county office races with the help of voter dissatisfaction and a kickass GOTV operation. Now, you might think that, in a presiential year, Dallas Democrats might be on defense, but not so. According to the Dallas Morning News, no less that four Republican judges have either leaft the Republican Party, or are preparing to leave.

As Texas Republicans gather for their national convention, GOP members back in Dallas are preparing to bolt the party.

Monday, Dallas County Court at Law Judge Mark Greenberg plans to announce at a Democratic Party Labor Day picnic that he’s leaving the Republican Party, said people from both parties familiar with his decision. The judge, who next faces re-election in 2010, could not be reached.

At least two other judges are expected to leave the GOP before November.

“They are looking at the numbers and the demographics and realizing that they can’t win by running as Republicans,” said Darlene Ewing, chairwoman of the Dallas County Democratic Party.

Last week, Dallas County Republicans lost another when county Criminal Court Judge Elizabeth Crowder said she’s switching to the Democrats.

It’s the latest political shift since the 2004 elections, when Democrats started to make inroads in county offices held firmly by Republicans since the Reagan years.

Since last year, five Republicans have defected, including state District Judge John Creuzot, who presides over the county’s felony courts, and state Rep. Kirk England of Grand Prairie. Judge Creuzot and Mr. England face Republican opposition in November.

There is a debate in political circles as to whether partisan change begins at the top or the bottom. Some argue that people first start voting for a particular party at the top of the ticket and eventually work their way down. Others contend that it begins on the local level and works its way up as lower-tier recruits run for office.

In the South, people started voting Republican for president, but still elected Democrats to Congress and local office. At the same time, local politicians started chaging their affiliation from Democrat to Republican before climbing their way to the top. In Texas, it’s beginning at the local level. County Republicans in Dallas and Harris Counties are reading the hadwriting on the wall and understand that voters are losing faith in their ability to govern. As a matter of fact, Barack Obama’s ativities in Texas are not about winning the state, but helping Democrats build on the gains they made in the State House and perhaps even take it over.

It’s slow, painstaking work. Winning judgeships is not as exciting as winning a senate seat, but this is exactly how Karl Rove started the party takeover, and perhaps this is where we begin the long march back. My eyes are upon you, Texas.

Two weeks ago we looked at the racial breakdown of population changes from the years 2000 to 2007 in the states that are projected to gain seats after the 2010 census. In many of the states (Arizona, Florida, Nevada) Hispanic growth far outpaced white growth, and this was especially pronounced in Texas. I vowed to return to this when the 2007 estimate, broken down by congressional district or county, was released; well, it hasn’t, but I thought I’d look at the changes from the 2000 census to the 2006 estimate, broken down by county.

The changes are pretty dramatic, and they show that the Hispanic and African-American growth is solidly concentrated in the metropolitan areas (which was something I was concerned about when I last posted on this). For redistricting purposes, it helps us immensely to have this growth concentrated as much as possible, so that even if the Texas GOP controls the redistricting process, they may have no choice but to concede several new majority-minority or ‘influence’ House districts, instead of being able to disperse and dilute those votes.

In the following tables, I’ve broken the large counties down by the metro area they’re part of. There’s also a separate table for ‘rest of the state,’ which is all of the counties that are left over.

Houston area

County	Total gain	White gain	Af.-Am. gain	Asian gain	Hispanic gain
Brazoria	46,131	10,363	10,027	7,274	17,628
Fort Bend	138,735	31,662	32,575	32,832	37,973
Galveston	33,393	15,056	1,049	2,795	12,485
Harris	485,629	-4,677	95,933	35,369	364,560
Montgomery	104,522	64,104	7,022	3,873	29,027

Dallas area

County	Total gain	White gain	Af.-Am. gain	Asian gain	Hispanic gain
Collin	207,176	99,096	26,944	35,834	42,912
Dallas	126,826	-139,664	33,058	15,357	221,832
Denton	151,262	74,506	15,295	14,986	41,487
Tarrant	225,076	31,307	44,605	18,331	129,308

San Antonio and Austin area

County	Total gain	White gain	Af.-Am. gain	Asian gain	Hispanic gain
Bexar	162,661	9,515	9,725	10,310	132,625
Travis	108,726	20,270	4,161	14,309	70,191
Williamson	103,863	56,529	6,916	6,645	28,123

South Texas

County	Total gain	White gain	Af.-Am. gain	Asian gain	Hispanic gain
Cameron	52,490	-3,825	-363	1,755	50,988
Hidalgo	131,171	2,365	812	2,079	123,642
Nueces	7,812	-7,164	-595	564	14,130

Other major counties

County	Total gain	White gain	Af.-Am. gain	Asian gain	Hispanic gain
Bell	19,973	3,156	6,399	1,683	9,307
El Paso	56,988	-11,704	-634	1,048	67,699
Jefferson	-8,137	-13,138	-1,099	-215	6,011
Lubbock	12,234	554	180	749	10,207
McLennan	13,372	1,195	729	1,476	9,205

Rest of state

Total gain	White gain	Af.-Am. gain	Asian gain	Hispanic gain
872,657	270,799	72,870	26,253	511,393

As you can see, there is a huge concentration of Hispanic growth in Harris County (Houston and its closest suburbs), to the extent that even if Republicans solely control the redistricting process they may have to concede the creation of a new Hispanic-majority district in central and south-west Houston (probably accompanied by pushing the current 7th further out into the western suburbs to maintain its strong Republican lean).

There also looks like the possibility of a Hispanic-majority district in Dallas, particularly if it’s a barbell-shaped district that takes in western Dallas and the central part of Fort Worth with a strip of suburbs in between (accompanied by pushing the 24th and 32nd further north into Collin and Denton Counties, fast-growing conservative exurbs to the north of Dallas). If Republicans control redistricting, they might not want to concede this district as well, but the population numbers might pave the way for a Voting Rights Act vote-dilution lawsuit that could force the creation of the district anyway.

Remaining Hispanic growth seems dispersed enough that the remaining two seats (of the four Texas is predicted to gain) are likely to be those long, squiggly Republican-leaning rural seats that the Texas GOP seems to love so much. But even there, the Texas Republicans are going to be fighting a slowly losing battle, building bulwarks against a rising tide.

UPDATE: It was asked in the comments if this data was available broken down by congressional district. As with counties, it isn’t broken down by congressional district for 2007, but it is for 2006, so here are the districts in the two major metro areas:

Houston area

District	2000-04 PVI	Total gain	White gain	Af.-Am. gain	Asian gain	Hispanic gain
TX-02 (north suburbs)	R+12	95,936	5,766	36,233	10,339	44,521
TX-07 (west Houston)	R+16	111,479	10,157	34,502	16,457	53,946
TX-08 (Montgomery Co.)	R+20	112,708	71,110	3,618	4,381	32,795
TX-09 (south Houston)	D+21	46,698	-21,186	5,334	-1,836	72,098
TX-10 (west suburbs)	R+13	197,489	58,452	21,843	22,577	91,974
TX-14 (Brazoria, Galveston Cos.)	R+14	80,660	30,099	5,389	6,249	33,776
TX-18 (north Houston)	D+23	35,176	-22,950	-1,530	-16	61,501
TX-22 (Fort Bend Co.)	R+15	156,439	12,262	44,954	35,114	62,637
TX-29 (east Houston)	D+8	38,363	-34,178	-507	3,034	71,678

Dallas area

District	2000-04 PVI	Total gain	White gain	Af.-Am. gain	Asian gain	Hispanic gain
TX-03 (Collin Co.)	R+17	161,646	39,434	32,662	34,758	57,888
TX-04 (Collin Co.)	R+17	129,236	64,729	14,452	8,631	38,159
TX-05 (eastern suburbs)	R+16	62,297	4,304	11,094	3,112	44,988
TX-06 (southern suburbs)	R+15	100,664	4,912	34,321	5,874	56,831
TX-12 (Ft. Worth)	R+14	98,789	44,514	6,271	5,363	43,648
TX-24 (airport area)	R+15	115,310	-15,695	28,387	23,600	79,641
TX-26 (Denton Co.)	R+12	162,261	73,887	8,893	11,041	63,934
TX-30 (south Dallas)	D+26	31,221	-23,647	-7,824	-364	60,496
TX-32 (north Dallas)	R+11	2,734	-45,354	6,716	-1,596	44,824

This puts into pretty stark relief why TX-07, TX-10, and TX-32 are suddenly on everyone’s maps: demographically, they’re totally different districts than they were four, let alone eight, years ago.

The Rick Noriega campaign has sent out a fundraising email citing a recent poll that shows him trailing the incumbent Big John Cornyn by only 2%, among adults and with a large undecided vote.

more below the fold

Link to the source:

http://www.texaslyceum.org/med…

Freshman U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican, leads Democratic challenger Rick Noriega in the poll, but the margin is slim and a large number of voters haven’t made up their minds. Cornyn had the support of 38% of the likely voters in the survey, to Noriega’s 36%, with 24% saying they’re not committed to either candidate.

Oh, you were probably wondering about that other race, too.

Republican John McCain would beat Democrat Barack Obama in Texas if the race were held now. But a significant number of Texans said they haven’t picked a favorite yet. Among likely voters, McCain had the support of 43% of those polled to 38% for Obama. Libertarian Bob Barr and independent Ralph Nader had about 1% each. One of every six voters – 17% – said they haven’t decided who will get their vote in November.

Obviously they didn’t lean on the leaners, but that’s O.K. with me this early in the campaign. (It’s from June 12-20, with 1,000 respondents, 8 of 10 said they were registered to vote.)

I’m really excited to see so many voters with an open mind on this race. Lessee, now all Noriega needs is $20 million for a massive media effort. He just might get the money. A poll that shows him trailing by only two points and Obama within five, that makes Texas a real battleground state.

It’s only one poll, I know, I know. But I like it!