Tag: Texas

Texas candidate filing has now closed.

As you may already be aware there are a number of uncontested Republican Congresscritters.

And that sucks – big time.

Below the fold to see exactly what you (if you live in Texas) can do about it.

(Cross posted here, there and everywhere)

As is the case every election cycle there are a number of Republican Congressmen unopposed as at the end of candidate filings.

This year there are 7, more than any other in recent times!

They are as follows:

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-07 (Culberson) – R+13,

TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,

TX-13 (Thornberry) – R+29,

TX-24 (Marchant) – R+11,

TX-31 (Carter) – R+14,

This is unfortunate to say the least.

However given the ludicrously easy ballot laws in Texas being a write in candidate is as easy as submitting 500 signatures of registered voters in your congressional district of choice and voila – away you go. Seems too easy? Well it is that easy!  

So come on who has the cojones to take on a Republican on their home turf, thus inhibiting their ability to lend an assist to Repubs in close races?

Your thoughts?

Texas candidate filing has now closed.

How are the parties going vis-a-vis recruiting candidates to run in all 32 House Districts?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Swing State Project, MyDD and Open Left)

The Texas Congressional House delegation is currently split 20/12 in favor of the GOP.

All incumbents have refiled for all 32 Districts.

So onto challenger filings.

First the bad news and there is no way to sugarcoat this – The GOP have a full slate, many with multiple candidates. Yep all 12 Dem held Districts have GOP candidates:

TX-09 (Green) – D+22,

TX-15 (Hinojosa) – D+3,

TX-16 (Reyes) – D+10,

TX-17 (Edwards) – R+20,

TX-18 (Jackson Lee) – D+24,

TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,

TX-23 (Rodriguez) – R+4,

TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,

TX-27 (Ortiz) – R+2,

TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,

TX-29 (Green) – D+8,

TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,

And for Democrats the news isn’t great.

We have confirmed candidates in only 13 of 20 GOP held Districts:

TX-03 (Johnson) – R+14,

TX-04 (Hall) – R+21,

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-06 (Barton) – R+15,

TX-10 (McCaul) – R+10,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-12 (Granger) – R+16,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

TX-19 (Neugebaeur) – R+26,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

TX-22 (Olsen) – R+13,

TX-26 (Burgess) – R+13,

TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,

And in the other 7 GOP held districts it seems that there is no candidate:

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-07 (Culberson) – R+13,

TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,

TX-13 (Thornberry) – R+29,

TX-24 (Marchant) – R+11,

TX-31 (Carter) – R+14,

This is unfortunate to say the least.

Remember that in 2008 we did not run candidates in 6 districts:

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

One potential snafu is that it seems that Grier Raggio is not listed as filed in TX-32. Given that there were media stories about him filing on December 30th I expect that he will bob up on the TX Dems list in the next day or two. There are also 2 Dem candidates listed without a race so we will see where they end up too.

A disappointing but not surprising effort from the Texas Democratic Party. Whilst write-in candidates are possible this is highly unlikely if past cycles are any judge.

How can we expect to win the Governors race when 1/3rd of Republican Texan Congresscritters will not have a Democrat running against them in November?

** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Nathaniel90’s diary motivated me to make my own Republican gerrymander of Texas. By the time I was done, I was kinda shocked at how “ugly” some of my districts looked, notably TX-7, TX-8, and TX-10 all reaching into downtown Houston to dilute a new minority district, and how TX-21, TX-17, TX-10, and a new Republican TX-35 were snaked across central Texas so as to keep all these seats in Republican control for 10 years and likely dislodge Edwards. My inspiration here was a comment by TXMichael to separate Bell, Williamson, and McLennan into three different districts. Originally I was going to allow Edwards to be “safe” and create a district for him out of these three counties and Travis, but I think the TX Republican party is more likely to try something like this.

TX-7 is the most “at risk” GOP district in the state at 56% White. Most GOP districts are close to 60% white. All Democratic seats, except the Travis county based TX-25 are over 75% minority.

Full State, Top Half

Full State, Bottom Half

El Paso

Dallas/Fort Worth This is what I am the most proud of. Sessions and Marchant are safe, and a new Democratic seat is made on Dallas’ west side.

Harris CountyA new Republican seat is made. I’m shocked at how I had to have TX-7, TX-8 and TX-10 reach into downtown to grab leftover minority precincts. If a 36th seat comes around, I think this is where it’s going to go providing an extra buffer for TX-7 and TX-34 (TX-2, TX-29, and TX-34 are all green and border each other, sorry)

Travis County

Bexar County

Central Texas OMG! What did I do to TX-10, TX-17, TX-21, TX-31, and TX-35? I eliminated Chet Edwards with a can not win district and made a new rural Republican seat. Sucks to be Chet, I guess the Republicans can make things worse.

Districts in Review:

TX-1 (Blue): Louie Gohmert (R)  Smith County, Nacadoches, and northern East Texas. 67% White

Contracts in size, loses a few counties, but still the same East Texas district full of people JSmith does not tolerate 😛

TX-2 (Dark Green): Ted Poe (R) Far East Harris County, Beaumont, and Jasper. 65% White

Loses some Harris County precincts and expands to become mostly based out of East Texas grabbing all of Jefferson county and several other rural East Texas counties.

TX-3 (Purple): Sam Johnson (R) Collin County, Plano. 65% White

Contract, contract, contract. Loses all Dallas precincts and grabs a handful of new Collin county precincts in exchange.

TX-4 (Red): Ralph Hall (R) Rural Colin County, Rockwall County, Paris. 75% White

Almost no changes. Only changes were the addition of Wood County and Loss of all of Cass County.

TX-5 (Yellow): Jeb Hensarling (R) Mesquite, Grand Prairie, Ellis County, Athens County. 60% White.

Hensarling’s district rotates clockwise in Dallas county, losing some of the stuff on his north end and reaches around to the southwest corner. Additionally, the addition of Ellis county gives TX-5 a rural county with a large population.

TX-6 (Sea Green): Joe Barton (R) Arlington, Johnson County. 59% White

In Tarrant, TX-6 grabs a little more of downtown. The rest of the district is entirely different. Gone is the I-45 stretch to Centervile, instead the Heavy straight-ticket GOP county of Johnson is added.

TX-7 (Grey): John Culberson (R) West Houston. 56% White

The most “vulnerable” GOP district in the state. relatively the same, bleeds some precincts out of Jersey Village and few more out of Spring Village. Grabs some new precincts out of West University Place and Bellaire.

TX-8 (Deep Purple): Kevin Brady (R) The Woodlands, West Downtown Houston. 64% White

The first “special” district. TX-8 gives up all of the rural East Texas districts (no more Jim Turner to dislodge) and now reaches it’s tentacle from Montgomery county into downtown Houston grabbing as many leftover minority districts as it can find.

TX-9 (Light Blue): Al Green (D) Southwest Houston, Rosenburg. 32% Black, 29% Hispanic, 24% White

TX-9 begins a run towards Fort Bend County. Despite the Delay reputation left with Sugarland and Fort Bend, Obama got 49% in this County. TX-9 reaches to Rosenburg to grab all the minority precincts to make a safe TX-22.

TX-10 (Bright Pink): Mike McCaul (R) Northeast Travis, North Harris, Downtown Houston, Temple. 59% White

The next special district. A lot of this would be easier is McCaul did not live in Travis County. Some Travis counties were shed, as was Burleson, Austin, and some of Waller county. The district gains by grabbing those other minoirty precincts in Harris that TX-8 could not get and reach around College Station to Bell County and grabs as much as it can from this shifting democratic county.

TX-11 (Lime Green): Mike Conaway (R) San Angelo, Midland, Odessa. 57% White

Not many changes.Grabs Coryell and Hamilton County, burns Kimble, Mason, Llano, and Gillespie.

TX-12 (Blue): Kay Granger (R) North West Tarrant County. 59% White.

Not much change. Loses some land to TX-6 and takes some downtown precincts from TX-24.

TX-13 (Peach): Mac Thornberry (R) Panhandle. 67% White.

Loses no land, grabs a handful of new counties, including Deaf Smith, Archer, Young, and Castro, and Parmer.

TX-14 (Safari Green): Ron Paul (R) Galveston, Aransas, La Grange. 55% White

Om nom nom, land. TX-14 grows and grows a lot. Goodbye Wharton county, hello I-10 corridor and lands north of Corpus Christie. Don’t let the low numbers of Whites fool you, this is libertarian land that loves Ron Paul crazies.

TX-15 (Orange): Ruben Hinojosa (D) McAllen, Harlengen. 87% Hispanic.

If TX-14 was scarfing food, TX-15 is bulimic. It contracts to just these two cities.

TX-16 (Nuclear Green) Sylvester Reyes (D) El Paso. 81% Hispanic

I think it bleed 3 precincts total. No change.

TX-17 (Dark Purple) Chet Edwards (D) Waco, Hood County, Corsicana, Huntsville, San Jacinto County. 67% White.

Okay, Chet Edwards should have been eliminated in 2004, but he wasn’t and he’s a BAMF. The addition of College Station should have finished him off, except the legislature forgot Aggies are idiots (if you live in Texas, you know the jokes and you are laughing) and will vote for someone only if they wear their A&M class ring. First thing to do, get rid of A&M. He now has Sam Houston University in Huntsville and the entire backwoods region north of Houston. My only regret with this district? Getting rid of Johnson county, maybe I should have kept Johnson and eliminated Hood instead. Oh well . . . Either ways, behold the end of Rep. Edwards.

TX-18 (Yellow) Sheila Jackson-Lee (D) Downtown Houston. 51% Black, 34% Hispanic

Grabs a lot of area on the South side of Houston and burns stuff near Jersey Village. I’m surprised I got a 51% black district.

TX-19 (Puke Green) Randy Neugenbauer (R) Rural West Texas, Lubbock. 61% White.

Grabs Erath and Andrews County, not many other changes

TX-20 (Light Pink) Charlie Gonzales (D) Downtown San Antonio. 72% Hispanic.

Contraction. Sam shape, just loses a few precincts on each side.

TX-21 (Burnt Red) Lamar Smith (R) North Bexar County, Hayes County, McMullen County. 57% White.

WHAT IS THIS THING?!?!?! The most altered district in Texas is what it is. North San Antonio is the only part that is the same. It adds barely democratic Hayes county, and lost of other rural counties on the east side of Austin/San Antonio . My surprise was how far south it had to reach to get enough voters.

TX-22 (Dirt Brown) Pete Olson (R) Fort Bend County, North Brazoria County, Wharton, Austin, Waller Counties and Far West Harris County (including Katy). 58% White.

TX-22 gives up on Galveston county and lots of the urban parts of Fort Bend. In exchange it reaches out of Houston and goes for rural lands. The Addition of Katy in Houston is the most straight ticket republicans you can find, anywhere.

TX-23 (Sea Blue) Ciro Rodriguez (D) South Bexar County, Rural lands to El Paso, Del Rio. 67% Hispanic.

Goodbye white northern precincts in Bexar county, hello safe Dem seat for Ciro.

TX-24 (Purple) Kenny Marchant (R). North East Tarrant County.

Goodbye Dallas, Goodbye Denton. Yes, I know Kenny lives in Denton, but he’s gonna have to move, his district moved fast, and he’s going to have to as well. Southlake, Grapevine, etc will cancel out the addition of downtown Fort Worth precincts.

TX-25 (Pink) Lloyd Doggett (D). Austin 43% White, 41% Hispanic.

So much for the 2002 plans to split up Austin, Rep. Doggett comes home and represents the White liberals in his new condensed district.

TX-26 (Grey) Michael Burgess (R) Denton and Cooke Counties. 68% White.

Burgess is going to be real safe for a real long time with this district. All of Denton and Cooke, Burns all of Tarrant.

TX-27 (Gak Green) Solomon Ortiz (D) Corpus Christie to Brownsville. 71% Hispanic.

Grabs all of San Patricio county, besides that, pretty much the same.

TX-28 (Lavender) Henry Cuellar (D) Laredo, Maverick County, Jim Wells County, and North Hidalgo County. 92% Hispanic.

TX-28 grabs a lot of the rural land that was previously held by TX-15. It’s rural growth, but it is still a safe valley seat.

TX-29 (Grey Green) Gene Green (D) East Downtown Houston. 76% Hispanic.

I don’t know if Gene Green can be dislodged via a primary, but this is a safe Democratic district that will elect a Hispanic should he retire in the next decade. Eliminated Baytown.

TX-30 (Peachy) E.B. Johnson (D) South Dallas, Bits around Garland. 42% Black, 35% Hispanic

TX-30 is still an african American district thanks to Duncanville, but it won’t be by 2020. It trades a lot of land around Garland with TX-32 to still be a safe Dem seat.

TX-31 (Goldenrod) John Carter (R) Williamson County, Killeen, College Station. 63% White.

Williamson is moving blue, but the College Station parts should offset it through the decade. Carter is not be vulnerable to a democrat, but he may be vulnerable to an Aggie challenge (see TX-17 rant)

TX-32 (Orange) Pete Sessions (R) Richardson, Garland, Rowlett 62% White.

I don’t know how I did it, but I made a safe Republican TX-32. All the suburbs, all the mansions, none of the risk. Loses West Dallas, gains from TX-5 on the East Side.

TX-33 (Blue) NEW (D) Corckett Hill, West Dallas, Irving. 66% Hispanic.

Safe new Dem seat. Get ready to say “Rep. Rafael Anchia,” if he is not mayor of Dallas by then.

TX-34 (Glowing Green) NEW (R) Clear Lake, North Galveston County, Humble. 58% White.

If Katy is the most Republican part of Harris County, this is the second most. North Galveston is getting whiter and more Republican and Clear Lake continues to hold NASA and the white collar engineers and mansions. It may get closer near the end of the decade due to growth on the north side, but this one will be R and stay that way due to straight ticket voters. Likely new Rep: State Rep. Larry Taylor of Friendswood.

TX-35 (Bright Purple) NEW (R) West Travis County, Northwest Bexar county, Comal County, Llano, Kerrville. 72% White.

Very Republican, very rural with growing exurbs. Don’t let the Travis county parts fool you, that is the swing part of the county. New Rep will be . . .a Republican, who knows.

Conclusion:

20R-12R is going to become 23R-12D. However, even if the republicans controlled the process in 2020, I don’t think they can make more R seats. Hispanics are moving in, and they are taking over. Who knows, by 2020, they might actually start voting.

Let me know what you all think!

Candidate filing closes in just over a week, on January 4th.

How are the parties going vis a vis recruiting candidates to run in all 32 House Districts?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

The Texas Congressional House delegation is currently split 20/12 in favor of the GOP.

I think we can safely assume that both parties will file candidates (almost invariably the current incumbents) in the Districts that they currently hold.

So onto candidate filings.

First the bad news and there is no way to sugarcoat this – The GOP have a full slate, many with multiple candidates. Yep all 12 Dem held Districts have GOP candidates:

TX-09 (Green) – D+22,

TX-15 (Hinojosa) – D+3,

TX-16 (Reyes) – D+10,

TX-17 (Edwards) – R+20,

TX-18 (Jackson Lee) – D+24,

TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,

TX-23 (Rodriguez) – R+4,

TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,

TX-27 (Ortiz) – R+2,

TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,

TX-29 (Green) – D+8,

TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,

And for us Democrats the news does not get any better.

We have confirmed candidates in only 8 of 20 GOP held Districts:

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-06 (Barton) – R+15,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-19 (Neugebaeur) – R+26,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

TX-22 (Olsen) – R+13,

TX-26 (Burgess) – R+13,

TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,

And in the other 12 GOP held districts there is not even a rumoured candidate:

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-03 (Johnson) – R+14,

TX-04 (Hall) – R+21,

TX-07 (Culberson) – R+13,

TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,

TX-10 (McCaul) – R+10,

TX-12 (Granger) – R+16,

TX-13 (Thornberry) – R+29,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

TX-24 (Marchant) – R+11,

TX-31 (Carter) – R+14,

This is a grim scenario to say the least. At this stage in 2007 we had confirmed and unconfirmed candidates in 12/19; this time 8/20.

I am not suggesting that we will not fill more of these districts but we are a long way behind. Remember that in 2008 we did not run candidates in 6 districts:

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

So hop to it Texas Democrats we need more candidates filing NOW.

** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

***UPDATE***

We now have a candidate in the 14th!***

UPDATE: Thanks for mentioning Flickr as an alternative. Now the maps display correctly.

Way back in March I mapped Texas using my own low-tech method. Now, using Dave’s redistricting tool with brand new 2009 estimates, I’ve finally taken on Texas the new and improved way. Again I attempted a Republican gerrymander, but using 35 seats instead of 36 (2009 estimates show growth in Texas slowing enough that the state may gain “only” three seats rather than four).

Below the fold…

Some maps:

Dallas-Fort Worth:

Houston:

Really, the map doesn’t look that different from my original computer-painted one, except that there is no “west-central” district, and that affects the shape of several large districts in Central Texas. I will only make comments for districts that are new, substantially altered from their current forms, or statistically amusing.

OVERALL OUTCOME OF A GOP GERRYMANDER IN 2012:

22 Republicans, 13 Democrats (23-12 when Edwards retires, but may revert to 22-13 as districts like the 22nd and 24th diversify)

District 1 – Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler)

Geography: East, from Wood and Smith Counties in the northwest to Sabine County in the southeast

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 68% white

District 2 – Ted Poe (R-Humble)

Geography: Southeast, from Humble and eastern Harris County in the west to the Gulf in Chambers and Jefferson Counties

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 62% white

District 3 – Sam Johnson (R-Plano)

Geography: Entirely within Collin County

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 65% white

Still solidly Republican and plenty white and suburban, but it’s only logical at this point that Collin County have its own district.

District 4 – Ralph Hall (R-Rockwall)

Geography: Northeast, from Grayson, Collin, and Rockwall Counties in the west to the Arkansas and Louisiana borders

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 75% white

District 5 – Jeb Hensarling (R-Dallas)

Geography: Stretching east from Dallas to Wood County in the north and Cherokee County in the south

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 63% white

District 6 – Joe Barton (R-Ennis)

Geography: Stretches south and east from Fort Worth to Johnson, Ellis, and Navarro Counties

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 62% white

Demographically, the district doesn’t change much, but geographically it does. Gone are all those rural southern counties, mostly ceded to Chet Edwards. Barton instead picks up a lot more Fort Worth, and by the end of the 2010s, that may make the district a lot less white and a lot less Republican.

District 7 – John Culberson (R-Houston)

Geography: west Houston

Politics: fairly safe Republican

VRA stats: 59% white

By the end of the decade this may be a swing seat, despite my best efforts to keep it crimson red.

District 8 – Kevin Brady (R-The Woodlands)

Geography: Southeast, from Grimes County in the west to the Louisiana border

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 73% white

Now this is as hardcore a GOP seat as one can draw east of the Hill Country.

District 9 – Al Green (D-Houston)

Geography: south Houston, Mission City, etc.

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 42% black, 38% Hispanic

District 10 – Mike McCaul (R-Austin)

Geography: McLennan and Limestone Counties in the north; in the south, stretches east from Austin to west Harris County

Politics: fairly safe Republican

VRA stats: 51% white, 31% Hispanic

The look of this district changed dramatically as I needed to accommodate a bulging Central Texas population and new seats to the south and east of McCaul’s district. Also, Edwards’ district had to be screwed with, so I gave McCaul part of McLennan County (including George W. Bush’s ranch in Crawford, long represented by a Democrat) and a few Chet-friendly counties like Falls and Robertson, leaving Edwards with tougher territory like Brazos County and a split home base. But really, how much tougher can you make the 17th for a Democrat? And meanwhile, McCaul’s district looks like it’s about to rip from being pulled in too many directions.

District 11 – Mike Conaway (R-Midland)

Geography: West, including Midland and San Angelo

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 62% white

Doesn’t get much more Republican than this.

District 12 – Kay Granger (R-Fort Worth)

Geography: much of Tarrant County, plus Wise and Parker Counties

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 75% white

District 13 – Mac Thornberry (R-Clarendon)

Geography: Panhandle / North, including Amarillo

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 68% white

District 14 – Ron Paul (R-Surfside)

Geography: coastline, from Galveston in the northeast to Refugio County in the southwest

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 58% white, 26% Hispanic

Anyone else think it’s odd that the 13th is in the northwestern-most portion of the state and the 14th just about the southeastern-most?

District 15 – Ruben Hinojosa (D-Mercedes)

Geography: South, from Karnes and DeWitt Counties to the Mexican border

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 82% Hispanic

District 16 – Silvestre Reyes (D-El Paso)

Geography: El Paso

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 81% Hispanic

District 17 – Chet Edwards (D-Waco)

Geography: Central, from Hood and Johnson Counties in the northwest to Brazos, Madison, and Houston Counties in the southeast

Politics: leans Democratic while Edwards runs, likely Republican once he retires

VRA stats: 67% white

All relevant comments listed under District 10.

District 18 – Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-Houston)

Geography: arc around central Houston

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 46% Hispanic, 35% black

Unfortunately for VRA perfectionists I could not get a black plurality here without severely upsetting the balance in other Houston-area districts. Like the “black opportunity” districts in California, Texas’ three VRA black districts are quickly becoming plurality-Hispanic, though turnout models still favor an African-American candidate in seats like this one. If I had made this district less Hispanic, it would only have made the 9th more so. There is simply no way to make both of them much more than 40% black.

District 19 – Randy Neugebauer (R-Lubbock)

Geography: West, including Lubbock and Abilene

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 60% white

District 20 – Charlie Gonzalez (D-San Antonio)

Geography: central San Antonio

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 71% Hispanic

District 21 – Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio)

Geography: Stretches from Kerr and Bandera Counties in the west to Hays County in the east and down to north San Antonio

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 64% white

District 22 – Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land)

Geography: Fort Bend County, southwest Houston

Politics: likely Republican (for now)

VRA stats: 45% white, 25% Hispanic

Demographically, this district is about to pop. No map can simultaneously keep the 9th VRA-protected and secure Culberson, McCaul, and Olson, unless the Republicans cede the new Houston seat (and they definitely don’t have to). If I were them I’d draw a simple district like this that will stay in GOP hands until the clock runs out on Olson (which could well be before the end of the decade).

District 23 – Ciro Rodriguez (D-San Antonio)

Geography: Southwest, from the eastern outskirts of El Paso to south San Antonio

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 71% Hispanic

Rodriguez’s current district was designed for a competitive race between him and Henry Bonilla in 2006. Now that Bonilla is out of Congress it seems probable that the Hispanic pop. here will go up significantly to preempt any trouble Lamar Smith may run into.

District 24 – Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell)

Geography: Dallas-Fort Worth, meandering through Tarrant, Dallas, and Denton Counties

Politics: likely Republican (for now)

VRA stats: 44% white, 35% Hispanic

Another ticking time bomb for the GOP? These middle-class-to-upscale suburban/urban districts are getting a lot harder for Republicans to hold. I suppose I could have made life a lot easier for Marchant by messing with the boundaries in Fort Worth and diluting the heavily white natures of the 12th and 26th, but really, Hispanic numbers are increasing rapidly in just about every urban or suburban county.

District 25 – Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin)

Geography: most of Travis County

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 60% white

District 26 – Mike Burgess (R-Flower Mound)

Geography: Denton and Tarrant Counties

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 69% white

District 27 – Solomon Ortiz (D-Corpus Christi)

Geography: Southeast / coastline, from San Patricio County to the Mexican border

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 72% Hispanic

District 28 – Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo)

Geography: South, from Frio and Atascosa Counties to the Mexican border

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 89% Hispanic (most heavily Hispanic district in the nation? Probably.)

District 29 – Gene Green (D-Houston)

Geography: central and east Houston

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 76% Hispanic

Here’s the deal here: Republicans have never cared for Gene Green, and his district has always been majority-Hispanic and is getting more so. To make this an unambiguous VRA seat, remove Hispanics from nearby Republican districts, and possibly guarantee an ethnicity-based primary challenge, I imagine the GOP packing as many Houston Latinos as they can into this seat.

District 30 – Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas)

Geography: central and south/west Dallas

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 44% black, 35% Hispanic

District 31 – John Carter (R-Round Rock)

Geography: Central, around Williamson and Bell Counties

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 61% white

The explosive growth in and around this district will cause it to shrink dramatically in area.

District 32 – Pete Sessions (R-Dallas)

Geography: north Dallas

Politics: likely Republican

VRA stats: 56% white, 27% Hispanic

I helped Sessions a lot here demographically, but at Marchant’s expense. One could even out the numbers to make both districts about 50% white, 30% Hispanic, but in rapidly diversifying Dallas, that’s not a lastingly secure position for a Republican anyway.

And the new seats:

District 33 – likely to elect a Latino Democrat

Geography: stretches east from Fort Worth to Dallas

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 65% Hispanic

At long last, a majority-Hispanic Metroplex district, and a second Democratic seat in the area. The Hispanic population should be robust enough to elect a Latino, but the total ethnic minority population is even more overwhelming at 85%. The Texas legislature is likely to cede a new Dallas-Fort Worth seat like this one to the Democrats, in exchange for saving increasingly vulnerable GOP seats in the suburbs and snatching the other two new seats for the Republicans.

District 34 – likely to elect a Republican

Geography: South-central, from east San Antonio to the Hill Country in the north and Victoria County in the southeast

Politics: likely Republican

VRA stats: 53% white, 36% Hispanic

This district will get more Hispanic as time gets on, but for the first decade it should be fine for a military-friendly white Republican.

District 35 – likely to elect a Republican

Geography: north and east Harris County, outskirts of Houston

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 62% white, 23% Hispanic

Packing the Latinos into the 29th made a big difference here, ensuring a GOP victory in Houston’s new district. Unlike Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston still has room for another Republican seat, though the 22nd may switch columns within the next decade.

So there you have it. Texas may gain a 36th district after 2010; we’ll know once the Census numbers are released. But for now, we can be fairly sure there will be 35 at least. And surprisingly, the map isn’t that different for a 35-district Texas from a 36-district Texas.

After seeing all the great maps here I’ve decide to give it a try.  This is my first attempt at redistricting a state and my first diary.  While doing this for the first time I kind of wished I had lived in a smaller state, but Texas is where I grew up and where I live.  Since this is my first attempt at redistricting a state I want constructive criticism, but please be gentle 🙂 especially the long-time observers of Texas Politics because I am sure some of my commentary may be a bit off on some of the areas I am less familiar with.  I used Daves Redistricting App for this.  Please note I am not exactly familiar with the VRA law and how to apply it because I am new at this so if someone would like to critique this map for that it would be appreciated.

With Bill White running for Governor and the Democrats a few seats from the majority in the House, what would a Democratic Redistricting of Texas look like?

My goals for doing a Democratic redistricting of Texas were to

1.  Create at least two new Democratic seats in DFW

2.  Clean up Travis County

3.  Clean up Harris County, add another Dem seat.

4.  Work to weaken several GOP incumbents including Sessions and Culberson.

All districts have a +/- 2.5% population deviation from the average.  I will describe each group of district based on metro area or geographic location.

East Texas

CD-1 Largely consists of the currently existing CD-4.  Like most of rural Texas it is very white, very conservative. 71% White, 15% African American, 10% Hispanic  Safe R

CD-5 now includes Ellis County and the City of Tyler and is out of Dallas County entirely.  This new district has the potential for a very entertaining primary between Joe Barton, Louie Gohmert and Jeb Hensarling.  70% White, 10% African American, 16% Hispanic  Safe R

CD-6 which had a significant chunk of its population in the DFW metro area is now entirely rural.  69% White, 15% African American, 12% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-17 although this district is in Central Texas it shows up good in the East Texas pic.  I am one of the people who remains amazed at Chet Edwards-D ability to hold on to his heavily GOP district.  Unsure of how to protect him I only have a few choices since his district gained population so Bosque, Somervell, Madison and Grimes Counties have been removed from his district.  Waco and Byran/College Station are still within CD-17  This district is probably still a Toss-up as Edwards will have to work hard to maintain this seat.  67% White, 9% African American, 19% Hispanic

Greater Houston Area (the Rural/Suburban districts)

CD-33 is a rural district which extends from greater Houston to Bastrop Country which is southeast of Austin  which is a solid GOP seat.  61% White, 11% African American, 25% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-22 is now almost entirely contained within Fort Bent County with small pieces in Waller and West Harris County.  Obama barely lost Fort Bend County, and despite being a minority-majority district I think this seat stays GOP.  44% White, 17% African American, 24% Hispanic, 12% Asian  Likely R

CD-14 Ron Paul isn’t going anywhere.  56% White, 8% African American, 30% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-08 contains north suburban Houston, the district is largely split between the fast growing Montgomery County and North West Harris County. 71% White, 5% African American, 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian.  Safe R

CD-02 Rural/suburban Houston contains Beaumont and Port Arthur.  62% White,, 18% African American, 15% Hispanic.  Safe R

Greater Houston (the Urban/Suburban districts)

CD-09 Now rests entirely within Harris County, other than a small extension to the west of CD-07 this district remains largely unchanged.  17% White, 32% African American, 36% Hispanic, 11% Asian.  Safe-D

CD-07 is now more Urban, it has essentially been shifted a big to the east which moves it a bit into south Houston.  The conservative west part of his district has been annexed by conservative CD-08.  46% White, 12% African American, 33% Hispanic, 5% Asian.  Leans D

CD-18 and CD-29 were both redrawn to undo the ugliness of the previous districts.  CD-18 15% White, 30% African American, 49% Hispanic.  CD-29 17% White, 14% African American, 65% Hispanic.  Both remain safe D.  

CD-35 Contains a good chunk of the currently existing CD-22 and is on the cusp of being a minority-majority district. 53% White, 10% African American, 29% Hispanic, 4% Asian  Lean R

Travis County (Austin)

CD-10 Contains most of Austin.  54% White, 6% African American, 32% Hispanic, 5% Asian,  Safe D

CD-25 At first I thought I drew a GOP leaning seat here but it may be a Dem leaning seat.  This district contains the remainder of Austin as well as Round Rock, Georgetown and Cedar Park.  If Dems organize well enough this could very well be a Dem held seat.  56% White, 9% African American, 27% Hispanic, 5% Asian.  Toss-up

Bexar County (San Antonio)

CD-21  This district is heavily Hispanic, much of this district is part of the former CD-23 and CD-20.  Ciro Rodriguez may opt to run here instead of CD-23 for reasons which will be clear when CD-23 is described. 29% White, 4% Black, 61% Hispanic  Safe D

CD-20  Central and South San Antonio, like CD-21 this district is heavily Hispanic. 30% White, 6% Black, 60% Hispanic  Safe D

South and Southwest Texas

CD-27 Remains largely unchanged, just tightened up because of the population increase in South Texas. 20% White, 2% African American, 75% Hispanic  Safe D

CD-15 Much of the Rio Grande Valley.  Safe D

CD-28 This guy extends from South San Antonio all the way down to Hidalgo county. 34% White, 6%, African American, 56% Hispanic  Safe D

CD-23 Laredo is back in this heavily Hispanic district.  82% Hispanic and 15% White makes this the most Hispanic district in the state.  

CD-16 In El Paso remains largely unchaged and is a bit more compacted.  Safe D

West and Central Texas

CD-13 A true West Texas district!  Contains the cities of Amarillo and Lubbock.  An interesting note about this district is that it is only 57% White, the remainder is 33% Hispanic and 5% African American.  I don’t know much about West Texas but I was expecting a much higher percentage of white folk.  However given the demise of the rural Democrats in Texas this district remains in the GOP hands.  Safe R

CD-19  Midland-Odessa and Abilene are the cities in this geographically huge district. 58% White, 5% African American, 33% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-11  This one encompasses a lot of Lamar Smiths former CD-21.  San Angelo and part of New Braunfels make up this heavily GOP district.  Loving County which is also the least populous County in the Country is also here. 68% White, 2 % African American, 26% Hispanic.  Stonewall, the birth place of President Lyndon Johnson is in this district.  Safe R

CD-31  Another rural conservative district located in Central Texas. 64% White, 12% African American, 18% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-04  Although this district is part of the DFW Metroplex it shows up nice on this image.  This district includes the northern parts of Denton and Collin County which are two of the fastest growing counties in the state.  At 78% White, 4% African American and 12% Hispanic this rural district is a GOP stronghold.  Contains Wichita Falls, Sherman and Denison, the later is the birthplace of President Dwight Eisenhower.  Safe R

DFW Metroplex

CD-36 This district which contains several Far North Dallas suburbs including McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Flower Mound and Denton is solid GOP all the way.  68% White, 7% African American, 17% Hispanic.  Safe R

CD-12  The C shape of this district obviously stands rightly for “conservative”.  The most conservative parts of Americas second largest conservative urban county are here.  Conservative parts of south and west Arlington, West and North Tarrant County lock up this district as a solid GOP seat.  Safe R

CD-26 Situated in Central Fort Worth extending out into south Fort Worth and west into Arlington.  The Democratic Party would lock this one up. 37% White, 21% African American, 37% Hispanic.  Safe Dem

CD-24 This guy straddles the Dallas-Tarrant County line and is in an area of Dallas and Tarrant County where local Democrats have been having a lot of success in state House races the past few cycles.  42% White, 14% Black, 34% Hispanic.  Lean D

CD-30  This was the sole Democratic Representative in DFW after the redistricting of 2003.  CD-30 does remain the most African American in the state, however the district now grabs the conservative enclave of Highland Park in near the center of Dallas county. 25% White, 38% African American, 32% Hispanic.  Safe D

CD-03  Another district where local Democrats have been having great success at winning State House Seats.  42% White, 16% African American, 33% Hispanic and 6% Asian.  I really want classify this seat as Lean D but I don’t think it is quite there yet.  Toss-up

CD-34  Now the “What…” moment will be answered regarding this creatively drawn district.  This district is drawn to strengthen the Democratic presence in CD-32 and CD-03 by moving a lot of the strong GOP north Dallas areas into a safe GOP seat with Plano.  CD-34 cuts straight down into Dallas County and ropes up University Park, a conservative enclave just north of Highland Park.  Plano is one of the most conservative cities in the country and is almost entirely within this district. 64% White, 7% African American, 12% Hispanic, 12% Asian  Safe R

CD-32  This majority Hispanic district is now ready for to be picked up by a Dem.  Heavily Democratic portions of south Dallas are included and heavily GOP sections of north Dallas are included in CD-34.  28% White, 11% African American, 54% Hispanic.  Likely D

This is the first in a series of posts examining the future of Texas Politics that I hope to write. I intend to examine ongoing demographic and political shifts in detail, and look to the future of statewide elections, Congressional and State Legislature elections, and redistricting.

Texas is the second largest state in the Union, after California.

Texas has been, for several years, a majority minority state.

Texas has 34 electoral votes, which will increase to 37 or 38 for the 2012 Presidential Election.

On the Presidential level, Texas has been one of the primary pieces (if not the primary piece) in the Republican Electoral College puzzle for years.

On the State level, Texas has not voted for a Democratic candidate for anything Statewide since 1994.

Yet if we can extrapolate from current trends, at some point in next decade Texas will become a bona fide purple swing state. Then it will become a blue state. Then it will become a linchpin of the Democratic electoral coalition, and as Texas flips, modern Conservative Republicanism as we know it will face mortal danger.

Contemporary Republican Dominance

A casual (Democratic) observer could be forgiven for thinking that Texas politics is nothing but bad news. After all, Texas seems to have produced plenty of bad news in recent years:

A) No Texas Democrat has won Statewide office since 1994.

B) Since 1976, Texas has consistently cast its ever increasing number of electoral votes for Republicans, constituting the key base of the GOP electoral college coalition.

C) There was the mid-decade redistricting in 2003, through which the GOP picked up 6 Congressional seats.

D) Even in a year when Democrats won a national landslide and Obama even won North Carolina and Indiana, he lost Texas by 12%, even with McCain having lost any home-state edge that Dubya might have claimed.

E) Rick Perry.

F) Of course, Texas is the adopted residence of that noted Northeastern Republican, George W. Bush.

I’ll stop the tedious litany there. Enough with the present, let’s look at the past.

A Brief History of Texas Politics

In order to understand Texas future, it is helpful to start with at least a basic familiarity with a story book version of Texas past. No, this is obviously not anywhere close to comprehensive, but very briefly:

1. Starting after the end of Reconstruction, Texas was a solidly Democratic state, much like the rest of the American South. Actually, it was a one party State for up until the latter quarter of the 20th Century. The Texas Democratic Primary was THE election in Texas.
2. Actually, that is false – there were in reality two “parties” – factions within the so-called “Democratic Party.” They were the Conservative Democratic Party (the socially dominant Bourbon Democrats), and the Progressive Democratic Party (including Populists, Liberals, and later on, racial minorities). In truth, these were the two political parties in Texas.
3. After World War Two, new people began moving to Texas. They came from other States, like George H.W. Bush coming from Connecticut, and did not seem to realize that it was not proper to be a Republican in Texas, or that Texas had a two Party system under the umbrella of one Political Party. They moved to the booming suburbs of Dallas and Houston, as well as Midland, and started what was effectively a third party movement – the Republican Party.
4. Gradually, the Texas Republican Party began winning the occasional election. Whenever the occasional Republican State Representative or Congressman sprouted from Texas soil, the Democratic Party did everything it could to rid the State of Texas of the blight of Republicanism. At first, when Republicans began popping up in the Dallas, Houston, and West Texas, Democrats were able to redistrict them out of power. But over time, it became unavoidable that Republicans would win some seats, both in the Texas House/State Senate and in Congress. Faced with this reality, Democrats packed Republican voters as densely as possible into strongly GOP districts, in order to limit the number of Republicans that could be elected.
5. At the same time, voting rights were gradually granted to racial minorities, who began to support the Progressive Democrats.
6. Seeing this, the Republican Party began to pursue the Southern Strategy, casting the Democrats as the party of Minorities. This was succesful in winning over the Conservative Democrats, mostly in more rural areas of Texas.
7. This trend towards the Texas Republican Party reached its greatest height under the Governorship and then the disastrous Presidency of one George W. Bush. The Republican Party and the Conservative Democratic Party were as fully united as they have ever been, and they merged into one mass. In 2002 (aided by an ambitious State House gerrymander they were able to draw because of their dominance of statewide races), for the first time ever, the Republican Party won total control over the Texas government.
8. The GOP set itself an ambitious goal – to destroy the last vestiges of the former 3 Party State, and “permanently” entrench the Republican Party in power, not just in Texas but in the Country as a whole. To accomplish this, they sought to defeat every last Anglo Democrat through mid-decade Congressional Redistricting. If the Anglo Incumbent’s district was voting GOP on the statewide level, they were thrown into a district designed to elect a Conservative Republican. If the Anglo Incumbent’s district was voting Dem on the statewide level, the GOP sought to change the district so that the Anglo Democratic incumbent would lose to a Hispanic or African American Democrat in the Democratic Primary. Jim Turner, Ralph Hall, Charlie Stenholm, Max Sandlin, Nick Lampson, Ralph Hall, and Chet Edwards were drawn into heavily GOP territory they had not previously represented.  Chris Bell, Lloyd Doggett, and Gene Green’s districts minority percentages were increased in an effort to ensure they would lose in Democratic Primaries to minority candidates. Martin Frost was a special case – his Democratic, majority-minority district was dismembered into a collection of districts that would all (and did) elect Anglo Republicans. Just as once no young (Anglo) Texan had grown up thinking it was acceptable to be a Republican, the GOP sought to ensure that no young (Anglo) Texan would grow up thinking that it was acceptable to vote for a Democrat. Texas was now a 2 Party State in line with the national norm, with an ascendant GOP pitted against a moderate to liberal Democratic Party. With the exception of an ever-dwindling number of old line rural stragglers, the Democratic Party was dominated by representatives from urban and minority areas – chiefly Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and the Rio Grande Valley. Texas was no longer a 3 Party State: the Conservative Democrats had merged with the Republicans into one united Republican Party. Texas was now a 2 Party State, with one Party (The Republican Party) holding hegemonic power.
9. But nearly as soon as GOP predominance was put in place, the Bush Administration gradually collapsed into abject failure. Texas Democrats began making gradual gains in the State House, almost entirely in Urban/Suburban areas. In a bizarre 4-way Gubernatorial race in 2006, Incumbent Republican was re-elected with only 39% of the vote. In 2008, after a Presidential primary that energized Democratic voters, Texas voted solidly for John McCain, though much less solidly than it had voted for Bush.

This narrative of the past is necessarily incomplete and biased in what I included and what I left out – but that’s my story and I’m sticking too it.

Back To The Future

That ever-dwindling number of old line rural Conservative Democratic stragglers dwindles further still. The latest example came only last week, when rural East Texas State Representative Chuck Hopson switched from the Democratic Party to the Republicans. He now faces a difficult GOP primary fight. Ironically, many of those GOP Primary voters who may vote against him have much more historically in common with the one-time Bourbon Democrats than with the Post-WW2 Sunbelt Suburban Republicans of Dallas and Houston.

Kay Bailey Hutchison (a Dallas Republican) and Rick Perry (a Conservative Democrat until 1990) face off in a monumental GOP Gubernatorial primary. This primary cuts down a fault line in the contemporary Texas GOP. On the one hand stand the rural Rick Perry Conservative Democratic-Republicans, openly speaking of secession and other madness, as did their forebears in 1860. On the other hand stand the traditional Republicans of Sunbelt Suburbanism. As their own Northeastern forebears (like the Bush’s of Connecticut and Maine) were, the old line Republicans are more than a bit skeptical of neo-Jefferson-Davisism.

One could analogize the present day Texas Republican Party to an insane asylum. In that analogy, the inmates would be the rural Conservative Democrats, and the wardens would be the suburban Republicans who (once?) dominate(d?) the Party, heirs to the great Sun Belt Republican migration to the Dallas/Houston suburbs (The Tom Delays and Pete Sessionses of the world) and to Midland (The Tom Craddicks of the world). The outcome of that primary will be in some ways a test of just how much the “inmates” (rural Conservative Democrats) have taken over the asylum (the Republican Party) from the suburbanites who once pulled the levers. Admittedly, though this split is real, it is not absolute, and Kay Bailey Hutchison is much more the moderate Rockefeller Republican in image than in fact. But I am more than tempted to wonder whether we are coming full circle – a Conservative Democratic Party (renamed as the Republican Party) up against a Progressive Democratic Party (the Democratic Party).

Meanwhile, it is at least conceivable that a Democrat could win the governorship if, Scozzafavalike, GOP primary ruptures the fault between the two factions of the GOP – the old GOP, and the Conservative Democrats. It is also possible that Bill White could win a seat in the US Senate. But Democrats have had many shattered hopes in statewide races in Texas over the past number of years. And redistricting looms just over the horizon.

Previous diaries

Summary:

  TX has 32 representatives, 20 Republicans and 12 Democrats

Possibly vulnerable:

 TX-10 (R)

 TX-17 (D)

 TX-23 (D)

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from AOL

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: TX-01

Location  Eastern TX, bordering LA and a tiny bit of AR, including Tyler  map

Cook PVI R + 21

Representative Louie Gohmert (R)

VoteView  362

First elected 2004

2008 margin 88-12 over an independent

2006 margin 68-30

2004 margin 61-38

Obama margin 30-69

Bush margin 2004 69-31

Current opponents None declare

Demographics  55th most rural (49.1%), 72nd lowest income (median = $33K), 90th most Blacks (18.9%), 17th most Republican  

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-02

Location  Oh, the odd shapes of TX districts!  This one mostly runs east west, from the LA border (and the Gulf) west to outer Houston.  But it also extends north a bit.  map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Ted Poe (R)

VoteView  438

First elected 2004

2008 margin 89-11 over a libertarian

2006 margin 66-33

2004 margin 56-43

Obama margin 40-60

Bush margin 2004 63-37

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   94th most Blacks (19%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-03

Location North central TX, including Plano and Garland    map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Sam Johnson (R)

VoteView  428

First elected 1991

2008 margin 60-38 over Tom Daley

2006 margin 63-35

2004 margin 86-8-6 over minor parties

Obama margin 42-57

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Current opponents No declared Democrats

Demographics  61st highest income (median = $61K), 61st fewest veterans (9.5%).

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-04

Location Northeastern TX, bordering OK and AR, including Texarkana map

Cook PVI R + 21

Representative Ralph Hall (R) (may retire)

VoteView  R + 21

First elected 1980

2008 margin 69-29 over Glenn Melancon

2006 margin 64-33

2004 margin 68-30

Obama margin 30-69

Bush margin 2004 70-30

Current opponents None declared

Demographics  44th most rural (50.4%), 14th most Republican  

Assessment Hall is the oldest person in the House (born 1923).  But, even if he retires, this is solidly Republican territory.

District: TX-05

Location  Shaped like a C; the inner-top of the C is near Dallas, it goes south and then east, and also east directly from Dallas   map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Jeb Hansarling (R)

VoteView  441

First elected 2002

2008 margin 84-16 over a Libertarian

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-33

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   35th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-06

Location    Shaped sort of like a boot, with an added doodad on top, the top of the boot is south and west of Dallas, it extends south about 100 miles and then east  map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative  Joe Barton (R)

VoteView 391

First elected 1984

2008 margin 62-36 over Ludwig Otto

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-33

Obama margin 40-60

Bush margin 2004 67-34

Current opponents Ludwig Otto

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-07

Location  Western outskirts of Houston  map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative John Culberson (R)

VoteView  357

First elected 2000

2008 margin 56-42 over Michael Skelly

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 64-33

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents None declared

Demographics  70th highest income (median = $58K), 66th fewest veterans (9.9%)  

Assessment Vaguely possible, but not at all likely

District: TX-08

Location The southern part of eastern TX, bordering LA   map

Cook PVI R + 25

Representative Kevin Brady (R)

VoteView  347.5

First elected 1996

2008 margin 73-25 over Kent Hargett

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 69-30

Obama margin 25-74

Bush margin 2004 73-28

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   45th lowest income (median = $40K), 8th most Republican  

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-09

Location Part of Houston and southern suburbs   map

Cook PVI D + 22

Representative  Al Green (D)

VoteView 72

First elected 2004

2008 margin 94-6 over a libertarian

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 72-27

Obama margin 77-23

Bush margin 2004 30-70

Current opponents None declared

Demographics    28th fewest veterans (7.1%), 13th fewest Whites (17.4%), 54th most Blacks (37%), 64th most Latinos (32.8%), 12th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (mostly 11% Asians), 38th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: TX-10

Location A long, narrow district running from Austin almost to Houston   map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Michael McCaul (R)

VoteView  343

First elected 2004

2008 margin 54-43 over Larry Joe Doherty

2006 margin 55-40

2004 margin 79-15-6 against minor party candidates

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 62-38

Current opponents A primary; then Jack McDonald is considering it and has already raised over $600K.

Demographics   77th highest income (median = $52K), 85th most Latinos (18.7%).

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable; McDonald should go for it!

District: TX-11

Location  Western TX, bordering (a little) on NM, including Odessa, Midland, and Brownwood  map

Cook PVI R + 28

Representative Michael Conaway (R)

VoteView 413

First elected 2004

2008 margin 88-12 over a libertarian

2006 margin Unopposed

2004 margin 77-22

Obama margin 24-75

Bush margin 2004 78-22

Current opponents None declared

Demographics    60th lowest income (median = $33K), 50th most Latinos (29.6%), 3rd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-12

Location Part of Ft. Worth, and western and northern suburbs   map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative Kay Granger (R)

VoteView  358

First elected 1996

2008 margin 68-31 over Tracey Smith

2006 margin 67-31

2004 margin 72-28

Obama margin 36-63

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Current opponents A primary, but no declared Democrat

Demographics  63rd most Latinos (23.7%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-13

Location Northern panhandle, bordering OK and NM   map

Cook PVI R + 29

Representative Mac Thorberry (R)

VoteView 393

First elected 1994

2008 margin 78-22 over Roger Waun

2006 margin 74-23

2004 margin 92-8 against a libertarian

Obama margin 23-76

Bush margin 2004 78-22

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   72nd lowest income (median = $34K), 2nd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-14

Location  Most of the Gulf Coast of TX   map

Cook PVI R + 18

Representative Ron Paul (R)

VoteView  444

First elected 1996

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin 33-66

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Current opponents A primary, but no declared Democrat

Demographics  60th most Latinos (24.9%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-15

Location Southern TX, between the Gulf and Mexico, but bordering neither   map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Ruben Hinojosa (D)

VoteView  164

First elected 1996

2008 margin 66-32 over Eddie Zamora

2006 margin 62-24-15 against two Republicans

2004 margin 58-41

Obama margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   6th lowest income (median = $27K), 59th fewest veterans (9.3%), 18th fewest Whites (19.7%), 64th fewest Blacks (1.7%), 2nd most Latinos (77.6%) (only TX-16 is higher), fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino (1%)

Assessment Increasingly safe

District: TX-16

Location Westernmost TX, bordering NM and Mexico, including El Paso   map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Silvestre Reyes (D)

VoteView  177

First elected 1996

2008 margin 82-10 against an independent

2006 margin 79-21 against a libertarian

2004 margin 68-31

Obama margin 66-33

Bush margin 2004 44-57

Current opponents Tim Besco

Demographics  43rd lowest income (median = $31K), 13th fewest Whites (17.4%), most Latinos (77.7%)  

Assessment Safe

District: TX-17

Location Another TX district with twists, but it’s south of Dallas and centers on Waco map

Cook PVI R + 20

Representative Chet Edwards (D)

VoteView  201

First elected 1990

2008 margin 53-45 over Rob Curnock  

2006 margin 58-40

2004 margin 51-47

Obama margin 32-67

Bush margin 2004 70-30

Current opponents Rob Curnock is running again, as are other Republicans

Demographics 19th most Republican  

Assessment Can’t be considered totally safe, but not that vulnerable

District: TX-18

Location  Shaped sort of like a Q, in Houston and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 24

Representative Sheila Jackson Lee (D)

VoteView  17

First elected 1994

2008 margin 77-20 over John Faulk

2006 margin 77-19

2004 margin 89-6-5 against minor party candidates

Obama margin 77-22

Bush margin 2004 28-72

Current opponents John Faulk is running again, as is Tex Christopher

Demographics 40th lowest income (median = $31K), 41st fewest veterans (8.3%), 17th fewest Whites (19.7%), 32nd most Blacks (40.1%), 43rd most Latinos (35.6%), 35th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: TX-19

Location  Another weird shape…like a W with extra squiggles.  Borders NM in the west, then jiggles around eventually almost reaching the OK border; includes Lubbock  map

Cook PVI R + 26

Representative Randy Neugebauer (R)

VoteView  420

First elected 2003

2008 margin 72-25 over Dwight Fullingim

2006 margin 68-30

2004 margin 58-40

Obama margin 27-72

Bush margin 2004 78-23

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 46th lowest income (median = $32K), 53rd most Latinos (29%), 5th most Republican  

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-20

Location  San Antonio and a odd shaped area around it   map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Charlie Gonzalez (D)

VoteView  117.5

First elected 1998

2008 margin 72-25 over Robert Litoff

2006 margin 87-13 against a libertarian

2004 margin 65-32

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 45-55

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 51st lowest income (median = $32K), 31st fewest Whites (23.4%), 9th most Latinos (67.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-21

Location Mostly west of San Antonio, but also north and east of San Antonio, towards Austin map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Lamar Smith (R)

VoteView  351

First elected 1986

2008 margin 80-20 against a libertarian

2006 margin 60-25-9 (two Democrats)

2004 margin 61-30

Obama margin 40-58

Bush margin 2004 66-34

Current opponents Lainey Melnick

Demographics   25th most veterans (16.8%).

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-22

Location Oh, I dunno…. a bowtie with one strand loose? Mostly south of Houston map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Pete Olson (R)

VoteView  241

First elected 2008

2008 margin 52-45 over Nick Lampson

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents None declared

Demographics  48th highest income (median = $58K), 42nd most Republican  

Assessment long shot

District: TX-23

Location Western TX, except for El Paso, borders Mexico and NM   map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative Ciro Rodriguez (D)

VoteView  191

First elected 2006

2008 margin 56-42 over Lyle Larson

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 51-48

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents Francesco Canseco, maybe others

Demographics  74th lowest income (median = $34K), 47th fewest Whites (30%), 13th most Latinos (65.1%).  

Assessment Not completely safe, although Rodriguez has raised almost $500K.

District: TX-24

Location  Shaped like a T between Dallas and Ft. Worth   map

Cook PVI R + 11

Representative Kenny Marchant (R)

VoteView  411

First elected 2004

2008 margin 56-41 over Tom Love

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 64-34

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   47th highest income (median = $56K)

Assessment Long shot

District: TX-25

Location Austin and southern and eastern suburbs   map

Cook PVI D + 6

Representative Lloyd Doggett (D)

VoteView 122

First elected 1994

2008 margin 66-30 over George Morovich

2006 margin 67-26

2004 margin 68-31

Obama margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 46-54

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   94th fewest veterans (10.8%), 98th fewest Whites (52.9%), 45th most Latinos (33.9%)

Assessment safe

District: TX-26

Location A square with two sticks, running north from Ft. Worth to the OK border map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Michael Burgess (R)

VoteView  369

First elected 2002

2008 margin 60-36 over Ken Leach

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 66-33

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Current opponents Neil Durrance (errr, someone tell him to fix the pic on his website to show his face)

Demographics   Not unusual on what I track

Assessment

District: TX-27

Location  The southern Gulf coast   map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Solomon Ortiz (D)

VoteView 175  

First elected 1982

2008 margin 58-38 over Willie Vaden

2006 margin 57-39

2004 margin 63-35

Obama margin 53-46

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Current opponents James Duerr

Demographics   41st lowest income (median = $31K), 34th fewest Whites (27.6%), 8th most Latinos (68.1%)

Assessment Pretty safe

District: TX-28

Location Southern TX along the Mexican border   map

Cook PVI Even

Representative Henry Cuellar (D)

VoteView 216

First elected 2004

2008 margin 69-29 over Jim Fish

2006 margin 59-39

2004 margin 54-46

Obama margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics   17th lowest income (median = $29K), 49th fewest veterans (8.7%), 20th fewest Whites (20.3%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 3rd most Latinos (77.5%)

Assessment Safe

District: TX-29

Location If you can describe this shape, you’re good! East of Houston map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Gene Green (D)

VoteView  173.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin 75-24 over Eric Story

2006 margin 74-24

2004 margin 94-6 against a libertarian.

Obama margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Current opponents Frank Mazzapica

Demographics   48th lowest income (median = $32K), 28th fewest Whites (21.9%), 10th most Latinos (66.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: TX-30

Location Dallas and southern suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 27

Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)

VoteView 60

First elected 1992

2008 margin 83-16 over Fred Wood

2006 margin 80-18

2004 margin 93-7 against a libertarian

Obama margin 82-18

Bush margin 2004 25-75

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   72nd lowest income ($34K), 45th fewest veterans (8.4%), 28th fewest Whites (21.9%), 30th most Blacks (41.4%), 43rd most Latinos (34.2%), 26th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: TX-31

Location North and west of Austin map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative John Carter (R)

VoteView  361

First elected 2002

2008 margin 60-37 over Brian Ruiz

2006 margin 58-39

2004 margin 65-32

Obama margin 41-57

Bush margin 2004 67-34

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   29th most veterans (16.4%)

Assessment long shot

District: TX-32

Location   Shaped like most of a circle, near Dallas  map

Cook PVI R + 8

Representative Pete Sessions (R)

VoteView  406

First elected 1996

2008 margin 57-41 over Eric Roberson

2006 margin 56-41

2004 margin 54-44

Obama margin 46-53

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Current opponents Steve Love

Demographics 53rd fewest veterans (8.9%), 90th fewest Whites (50.1%), 40th most Latinos (36.2%)  

Assessment Safe

Crossposted at DailyKos

I’ve always wanted to go hard after a white Southern suburban district in one of the three Southern megalopolises (Atlanta, Dallas/Ft. Worth, and Houston). To win a Southern district, conventional wisdom is that as a starting point the GOP Presidential candidate has to have gotten less than 55% in said district, and the most tempting three are in Texas. There’s the 10th District (Houston to Austin) and a pair of DFW metroplex district, the 32nd and 24th. Lets take a look at them.

Texas’s 10th Congressional District (Houston to Austin)

As far as Houston goes (sort of), there’s the 10th Congressional District (map), which McCain won 55-43. The 10th is a politically incoherent district-it stretches from Houston’s suburbs where over a third of the population is to downtown Austin, which casts about 40% of the vote. In between the two are a bunch of Republican rural counties. At first look, its an intriguing target- its current member is Michael McCaul, who is only a three term incumbent who has struggled to outperform the Republican presidential nominee. In other words, he’s got almost no personal appeal. A lot of people point to this as Democrats best hope for a pick up in the Lone Star State.

I’m not so sure that its the best way to go for a single reason-you’re going to have to spend a truckload and a half of money to win it because you have to buy media time in not only the hugely expensive Houston media market but also Austin as well. McCaul has access to a ton of personal wealth and can draw on that at any time.

We do have some things going for us in this district:

a)Our candidate in the race, Jack McDonald, raised $300,000 in 5 weeks. That’s a nice chunk of change, and those are the sort of numbers you’d need to be competitive. At very minimum, to win the 10th, you’re going to have to spend 1.75 million or so, and more likely close to 2 million.

b)If hugely popular Houston mayor Bill White ends up as our Senate candidate, there’s the potential that his coattails could help McDonald in the Harris County portion of the district.

c)McCaul’s fundraising numbers blew chunks this quarter, raising only $97k. That said, he can always write himself a check.

Texas’s 32nd Congressional District (Highland Park-University Park-Irving)

The other seats that look promising are in the DFW metroplex.

As tempting of a target as the 24th is, on paper its not the best target in the DFW area (yet); if the DCCC gave me a couple million dollars and forced me to spend it in a single Texas district, I’d spend it in the Texas 32nd (map)(assuming we had a good candidate). Why? First off, McCain only got a paltry 53% of the vote here. Barack Obama did not heavily contest Texas and still got 46% of the vote here. With a full on push, he would have probably come very close to winning it outright. Then there’s the trending-Bush carried the 32nd with 64% in 2000 and 60% in 2004. That’s a staggering 11 point drop in 8 years and 6 points difference in a single 4 year cycle. In other words, the GOP performance here is dropping like a rock.

It gets better than just the raw numbers-the demographics here are very encouraging. There’s a distinct reason why Martin Frost chose to run here instead of in the 24th District after the DeLaymander, and Martin Frost was no dummy. It’s 36.2% Hispanic and 7.9% African American, which is a fantastic base to build off of for a Democratic candidate. But it gets even better, the bulk of Dallas’s Jewish community lives in the University Park and Highland Park portions of the 32nd.

Now, lets talk about the incumbent, Pete Sessions. Sessions, though he’s been in Congress for awhile, isn’t as entrenched in his district as you think he might be. Sessions originally represented the 5th District from 1997 to 2002 when he moved into the 32nd because the 5th got more Democratic. The 32nd was then massively rejiggered in the DeLaymander to crack Martin Frost’s old 24th District, and he got a bunch of new turf that spells long term trouble for him. His district is shaky enough for him that he had to have W fly into his district the night before the election for a big rally to put him over the top. Finally, he’s the current chair of the RNCC-dropping money here simply to make his life miserable is far from the worst idea I’ve heard.

Another good thing about the 32nd is that unlike the 10th, the 32nd is in a single media market, albeit the gigantic Dallas-Ft. Worth one. You’d get more bang for your advertising bucks here than you would in the 10th, having to split ad buys between Houston and Austin.

As far as a bench in the district is concerned, there are two or three interesting possibilities in the Texas House. The best fit, in my opinion would be Kirk England who represents part of the 32nd in Irving-the downside being that he lives in Grand Prairie which is in the 24th. There’s also Rafael Anchía, who represents the 103rd District and Roberto Alonzo in 104. I’m not completely sure that a Latino couldn’t win this district, but it is probably better suited to a white Martin Frost-ish candidate. Still, with a 44%+ minority base, its far from inconceivable that a Latino could do it, especially with a huge voter registration campaign in the Latino friendly parts of the district.

Texas’s 24th Congressional District (Carrolton-Colleyville-Grand Prairie)

The  Texas 24th is a similar district to the 32nd, but its a little less appealing on some fronts and more appealing on others:

-Kenny Marchant has been the State Rep for Carrolton forever and a day and probably has a better hold on the 24th than Sessions does in the 32nd

-McCain got 55% here vs 53% in the 32nd, Obama got 44% vs. 46%

-there’s not nearly the Jewish community in the 24th that there is in the 32nd

-Marchant isn’t going to be crisscrossing the country as RNCC chair like Sessions will and can campaign full time (but on the other hand he has less access to cold hard cash than Sessions does)

-the Latino component is half as big as the 32nd, though its an open question as to how many in the Latino community are registrable

What is better:

+ conversely, we almost have to have done better among white voters here, and the African American component is higher than in the 32nd

+ 24 is falling off that GOP performance cliff even faster than 32, having lost 13 points in 8 years, and *****10***** points from ’04 to ’08

+ From ’00 to ’06, the 24th had a higher Latino population gain than did 32nd (79,641 vs. 44,824)

+ 24 also had much higher growth influxes among AA voters (28,387 vs 6,716) and Asians (23,600 vs. -1,596)

The bench is largely the same, though as mentioned, Kirk England lives in this district and not 32. Long term, the GOP is going to have to draw another Democratic DFW district (knowing the TXGOP they’ll probably draw it as a Minority Majority Latino district for Anchia), and everyone knows it. Thus, there’s probably less urgency to take the risk and run here vs the 10th-the situation with Harris’s new seat is much more muddled than the DFW seat.

All three districts look as tempting as BBQ brisket, with the 32nd being the best on paper, the 24th having the fastest falling GOP performance, and McCaul having the weakest hold on his district.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

QUESTION: What do you think about the idea of secession or sovereignty for your state?

PERRY: Oh, I think there’s a lot of different scenarios. Texas is a unique place. When we came into the Union in 1845, one of the issues was that we would be able to leave if we decided to do that.

My hope is that America, and Washington in particular, pays attention. We’ve got a great Union. There’s absolutely no reason to dissolve it.

But if Washington continues to thumb their nose at the American people, who knows what might come out of that.

This man is seriously deranged.  He is getting dangerously close to treason.