Tag: demographics

• Special elections/Runoffs: Believe it or not, it’s a busy election night tonight. Top of the list is the special election in FL-19, where the successor to Robert Wexler will be chosen. In this D+15 district in the more middle-class parts of the Gold Coast, the Democrat, state Sen. Ted Deutch, is heavily favored. The parties haven’t gotten involved, and Republican Ed Lynch (who lost a lopsided decision to Wexler in 2008) is hamstrung by the presence of independent right-wing candidate Jim McCormick.

It’s runoff day in Texas, with almost all the action on the GOP side. TX-17, between self-funder Bill Flores and 2008 candidate Rob Curnock, and TX-23, between self-funder Quico Canseco and ex-CIA agent William Hurd, are the marquee races as far as the U.S. House goes. There are also some GOP runoffs in some state House races, an interesting mixed bag of open seat succession races, teabaggish challenges to GOP incumbents, and challenges to vulnerable Dems. Finally, there’s a culture war clash between just-very conservative and super-duper conservative in two statewide contests: one for the Supreme Court (with Rick Green, the former state Rep. known for punching the guy who beat him in 2002, representing Team Crazy), and one for the Board of Education (between Marsha Farney and Brian Russell, with Russell the movement conservative here).

Finally, there’s some state legislature action in Massachusetts, California, and Florida. Primaries for two state Senate seats are in Massachusetts, the ones held by now-Sen. Scott Brown and now-disgraced Anthony Gallucio. This is the de facto election in Gallucio’s dark-blue seat, seeing as how no Republicans are running, but the winner between state Rep. Lida Harkins and doctor Peter Smulowitz in the Dem primary will face off against GOP state Rep. Richard Ross on May 11 to succeed Brown. In California, there are two legislative specials; using the California system, each one will likely head to a runoff (unless someone in the cluttered fields breaks 50%). Both seats will likely turn out to be holds: SD-37 is in Republican exurban Riverside County, while AD-43 is in Democratic Glendale in LA County. And in the Florida Panhandle, dark-red HD-04 should be an easy Republican hold.

• AR-Sen: Looks like Blanche Lincoln picked the wrong week to stop acting like a Democrat. She got seriously outraised by Bill Halter in the first quarter, earning $1.3 million (Halter got $2 mil). She also spent more than she earned, running a blitz of TV ads, probably to the tune of $2 million, as her cash on hand dropped $700K –although it’s still a high $4.7 million. Still no word yet from the race’s key Republicans.

• CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina filled in the last blank in the California Senate race; her fundraising total for the first quarter was $1.7 million, edging out Tom Campbell (who pulled in $1.6 million). Both GOPers lagged Barbara Boxer’s $2.4 million.

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist is still trying to find something that’ll stick to Marco Rubio, and he’s trying again to link ex-state House speaker Rubio to some of the other less savory elements among legislative leadership. He’s up with a new ad trying Rubio to another former speaker, Ray Sansom, who’s currently under indictment for charges of falsifying state budget items.

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias is lagging Mark Kirk on the cash front; he raised $1.2 million last quarter, compared with Kirk’s $2.2 million. Giannoulias didn’t release cash on hand figures, which may not be too impressive either considering that he had to fight through a competitive primary.

• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP looked at the primaries only in the North Carolina Senate race (they’re on May 4). On the Dem side, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham is still within striking distance of SoS Elaine Marshall; she leads Cunningham 23-17, with Kenneth Lewis at 9 and 5% for assorted minor candidates. (Last month, Marshall led Cunningham and Lewis 20-16-11.) On the GOP side, Richard Burr is at 67%, with his closest competition, Brad Jones, at 7.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Quinnipiac finds a lot of same-ol’-same-ol’ in the Empire State: Andrew Cuomo crushing, and Kirsten Gillibrand crushing anyone non-Pataki. Gillibrand trails non-candidate George Pataki 45-40 but leads actual candidate Bruce Blakeman 47-25 (none of the other third-tier GOPers get polled); she’s also sporting her highest-ever approvals, at 47/25. (Pataki beats Blakeman in a GOP primary, 64-15.) On the Governor’s side, Rick Lazio is still poised to be GOP nominee; he leads Steve Levy and Carl Paladino 34-11-11 (note that the poll was in the field prior to the whole bestiality thing). Andrew Cuomo dispatches Lazio 55-26, Levy 57-24, and Paladino 60-24.

• OH-Sen: I’d assumed Lee Fisher had been on the air before, but he’s just now launching his first TV spots of his campaign with the primary only weeks away (apparently marshaling his resources for the general). Fisher also pulled down the endorsement of Cleveland mayor Frank Johnson, although he didn’t gain the backing of his own home town’s Democratic party (in Shaker Heights), which instead declined to endorse.

• PA-Sen: Here’s a bit of a surprise: Joe Sestak succeeded in his ballot challenge, getting last-minute conservadem entrant Joe Vod Varka kicked out of the Democratic primary, setting up a two-man fight against Arlen Specter. If Sestak’s going to have any hope of knocking off Specter, he’ll need to consolidate every anti-Specter vote (and also not have the Slovak-American vote — a big segment in western Pennsylvania — split).

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold had a successful fundraising quarter, considering right now he’s only running against the specter of Tommy Thompson. Feingold earned $1.34 million, leaving him with $4.26 million CoH.

• FL-Gov: Rick Scott has decided, rather belatedly, to throw his hat in the ring in the Republican field in the Governor’s race. If the name’s familiar, he’s a former hospital-industry businessman who funded much of the initial anti-HCR astroturfing efforts via his organization Conservatives for Patient Rights. He’s sound teabaggish themes about establishment candidate AG Bill McCollum (despite McCollum taking the lead on the GOP AGs’ anti-HCR lawsuit). Considering that state Sen. Paula Dockery is already trying to run against McCollum from the right and getting no traction, it’s hard to see Scott going anywhere with this, though.

• NM-Gov: Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, the lone Dem in the race, is dominating the fundraising front; she raised $1.1 million in the six-month reporting period and has $2.6 million CoH. Among the GOPers, former state party chair Allen Weh leads both in money raised ($691K, although $500K was a personal loan) and CoH ($544K). Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez raised $428K and sits on $364K CoH.

• PA-Gov: Here’s a blow to, well, everybody in the Democratic field; after not being able to find two-thirds support for anybody, the AFL-CIO won’t be endorsing any particular candidate in the Dem primary. Former Philadephia city controller Jonathan Saidel got their Lt. Gov. endorsement.

• AL-05: Party-switching Rep. Parker Griffith (most recently in the news for forgetting his party-switch and billing the DCCC for expenditures) surprised his GOP primary opponents at a debate by asking them sign a unity pledge that the losers of the primary would campaign for the winner in November. No thanks, said both Mo Brooks and Les Philip.

• DE-AL: Looks like wealthy self-funder Michelle Rollins, the NRCC’s preferred recruit in the race, has some competition on the big bucks front in the GOP primary. Real estate developer Glen Urquhart just announced that he has $512K in his account (of course, $500K of that came from his own pocket).

• FL-08: Alan Grayson had another big fundraising quarter, thanks in large part to netroots moneybombing (especially his March event which brought in $500K). He raised $803K in the last three months, bringing his CoH total to $1.5 million (along with the possibility of writing checks to himself).

• HI-01: CQ has an interesting piece on HI-01 that focuses primarily on just how difficult it is (especially for “mainland” pollsters) to poll in Hawaii. With only two polls of this race having seen light of day so far, the main takeaway may be that anyone’s guess is as good as mine where the race stands.

• MI-01: One of the top Republicans on everyone’s candidate list for the newly-opened seat in MI-01 has said that he won’t run. State House minority leader Kevin Elsenheimer said he won’t run, even though he’s termed out of the House and needs something else to do. (Elsenheimer, from the Traverse City area, is disadvantaged by not coming from the Upper Peninsula portion of the district.)

• MS-04: Here’s one other eye-catching fundraising note: a Dem incumbent who got outraised by Republican opposition previously considered inconsequential. Rep. Gene Taylor raised $41K and has $221K CoH, while GOP state Rep. Steven Palazzo raised $125K and has at least $100K CoH. Let’s hope Taylor doesn’t hit the “snooze” button for another quarter. National Journal’s latest fundraising outline also has noteworthy numbers from Charlie Dent (PA-15), Dan Debicella (CT-04), and Rick Crawford (AR-01).

• Redistricting: With the Fair Districts redistricting initiative seeming destined to make the ballot in Florida, now the Republican-controlled legislature is trying to get its own redistricting initiative on the ballot, in an apparent effort to clarify (or gut) the Fair Districts proposals. The Senate’s proposal deals with the thorny questions of VRA-mandated districts and communities of interest, which aren’t addressed in satisfactory manner by the original initiatives, which forbid designing districts in a manner that is favorable to one party or the other.

• Demographics: Josh Goodman has an interesting look at population change in Texas, similar to some work we’ve done at SSP over the last few years; he finds that while Texas’s largest counties are becoming swingier, its fastest-growing counties are still pretty solidly Republican (although the growth in these counties is in demographics that aren’t likely Republican). Of course, the parts of the state that are becoming less and less of the state, percentage-wise — the rural parts — have become even more conservative than the fast-growing exurbs, so in a way that’s progress too.

• CA-Sen: Wow, it actually looks like conservadem blogger Mickey Kaus is forging ahead with his planned challenge to Barbara Boxer; he submitted papers to run in the Democratic primary. It sounds like he’s approaching the race with rather limited expectations, though; in an interview with the New York Times, Kaus said that, in comparison to Al Franken: “I do not expect to win, and that is the difference between Franken and me. This is an issue-raising candidacy.”

• LA-Sen: The Charlie Melancon camp is offering up another Anzalone-Liszt internal, this one taken in mid-February, to show that things aren’t quite as bad off as Rasmussen would have you believe. Melancon’s poll shows David Vitter leading him, 48-38.

• NV-Sen: Ex-Assemblywoman Sharron Angle is on the air with a 60-second radio spot, her first of the campaign. It’s really more of an ad for the teabaggers than for herself, though, as it focuses on critiquing the TARP program and promoting the Tea Party rally planned for Harry Reid’s tiny town of Searchlight.

• NY-Sen-B: There’s been a remarkable churn-and-burn of celebrities showing up, saying they’re interested in challenging Kirsten Gillibrand, and then backing away after doing the math. This time, it was former state banking official and Michael Bloomberg girlfriend Diana Taylor. Politico is also abuzz about George Pataki’s dodging of questions of running for Senate when at a Rick Lazio rally, since of course his basic polite desire not to step on Lazio’s message means that Pataki is secretly planning to run for Senate.

• OH-Sen: This guy looks like he’s destined to end up with about one or two percent of the vote, but in what could be a super-close race between Lee Fisher and Rob Portman (if recent polling is any indication), that fraction could make all the difference. Surgeon Michael Pryce announced his independent candidacy for the Senate at a Tea Party gathering last week. (Of course, there’s still the little matter of his gathering those signatures.)

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter pulled in another union endorsement over the weekend, and it’s one with a lot of boots on the ground: the state chapter of the SEIU, with nearly 100,000 members.

• MN-Gov: Howard Dean is weighing in with a pay-back endorsement in another Democratic gubernatorial primary. This time, it’s in Minnesota, and he’s backing Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak. Rybak was chair for Dean’s 2004 primary campaign in Minnesota.

• OR-Gov: This isn’t the kind of news that helps your gubernatorial campaign gain traction. Bill Sizemore, at one point one of the most dominant forces in Oregon’s GOP (and still persisting in running for Governor in spite of the odds), is facing three counts of tax evasion. He finally relented and accepted the help of a public defender despite previous plans to go it alone. He hasn’t been getting any private donations for his legal defense fund and is working as a landscaper to make ends meet, so he qualifies.

• SC-Gov: Rep. Gresham Barrett’s having a hard time washing the stench of Washington off his hands while running for the GOP gubernatorial nod in South Carolina. Under attack over his inside-the-Beltway vote in favor of TARP from inside-the-Beltway group Americans for Job Security, Barrett has decided to use his inside-the-Beltway federal campaign funds to run ads in South Carolina to defend himself, which is permissible because he’s defending his voting record rather than touting his gubernatorial campaign.

• UT-02: Despite the entry several months ago of former state Rep. and state party co-chair Morgan Philpot, the GOP is looking for a better option to go against Rep. Jim Matheson. GOP recruiters have been trying to get four-term state Rep. Greg Hughes to get in the race, who apparently offers more gravitas than the young Philpot.

• WA-03: Retiring Rep. Brian Baird took a while to settle on an endorsement for a replacement, but he’s going with ex-state Rep. and TVW founder Denny Heck. The Dem establishment (starting with Gov. Chris Gregoire) seems to be coalescing behind Heck, who faces off against liberal state Sen. Craig Pridemore in the primary.

• New York: New York’s Working Families Party is laying it all on the line: the party’s central committee voted to prohibit the endorsement of any member of Congress who votes against the pending healthcare bill. The WFP’s line provided the margin of victory for both Scott Murphy and Bill Owens in their special elections last year. It also (sigh) provided Eric Massa’s margin in 2008. (D)

• Demographics: An interesting University of Southern California study points to an trend that got underway in the 1990s that’s really started to show up lately in Census estimates: that immigrants to the U.S. are increasingly skipping the traditional ports of entry (New York, Los Angeles) and instead heading directly for the nation’s midsize metropolitan areas. The numbers of recent immigrants had the steepest gain, percentage-wise, in places like Nashville, El Paso, Bakersfield, and Stockton.

• CO-Sen: Gee, tell us what you really think, Jane Norton! The supposed front-runner for the GOP nod just referred to Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme” while appearing at a teabagger forum. I’m sure the 600,000 or so Coloradans who receive Social Security will be glad to hear that.

• FL-Sen: PPP’s Tom Jensen has some observations on the Florida race, that also seem generalizable to the national landscape and pretty much every other race. Very few people are changing their minds between the parties, he finds: only 8% of Obama voters plan to vote for Marco Rubio, actually lower than the 11% of McCain voters planning to vote for Kendrick Meek. The difference is in the intensity between the parties, which shapes the likely voter model. Barack Obama won Florida by 3, while PPP’s sample went for McCain by 4; that 7-point shift is similar to what they found in New Jersey and Massachusetts as well.

• OH-Sen: We’re very short on details, but Chris Cillizza is pointing to a DSCC poll (taken by Mark Mellman) finding Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leading GOP ex-Rep. Rob Portman 37-36 in the Senate race. (There’s no mention of primary numbers or a Jennifer Brunner matchup.) We’ll fill in the blanks more if we see a copy of the memo.

• MI-Gov: Michigan-based pollster Denno-Noor takes another look at the primaries in the Michigan governor’s race. On the GOP side, Rep. Peter Hoekstra leads at 28% (up from 21 in November), followed by self-proclaimed nerd Rick Snyder at 18 (up from 5). This poll confirms the most recent EPIC-MRA poll’s finding of Snyder’s advertising-based surge, and the subsequent decline for AG Mike Cox. He’s at 12 in this poll, down from 15. Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard is at 8, and state Sen. Tom George is at 2. On the Democratic side, they find a lot of uncertainty: state House speaker Andy Dillon leads Lansing mayor Virg Bernero 13-11, with 6% each for state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith and for Dan Kildee, who has since dropped out (although he was in the race while the poll was in the field). Undecided wins, at 56%. There are no trendlines on the Dem side, given the dropout of Lt. Gov. John Cherry since the last poll. (Speaking of Cherry, there are odd rumors out there that unions are asking the woeful Cherry to get back into the race, which doesn’t jibe with the UAW’s recent decision to back Bernero.)

• NY-Gov: This is what passes for a good news day for David Paterson: the growing likelihood that he won’t face any criminal charges over allegations of witness tampering in the domestic violence investigation involving a top aide. On the GOP side, ex-Rep. Rick Lazio rolled out one more endorsement from the party’s old war horses as party bosses keep looking elsewhere for a suitable candidate; today, it was Rep. Peter King‘s turn to give Lazio the thumbs-up.

• PA-Gov: More progress on the endorsements front in the fight for the Democratic nomination. Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato got the endorsement of the state’s largest teachers union, the Pennsylvania State Education Association. Meanwhile, Auditor Jack Wagner continued to dominate in terms of endorsements from county-level party apparatuses, getting the endorsement in Schuylkill County, out in coal country.

• MI-13: This isn’t a good day for Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick. She and one of her aides just got subpoenaed by a federal grand jury, in the investigation into her son, former Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. On top of that, state Sen. Hansen Clarke made official his primary challenge to Kilpatrick. She barely survived the Democratic primary in 2008, and that was largely because of a split among several challengers.

• NY-23: Doug Hoffman is making a move… to the 23rd District, where he plans to run again. One knock against Hoffman last year was that he lived in Lake Placid, which is outside the district. He’s moving nine miles down the road to Saranac Lake, which falls in the 23rd’s lines.

• PA-07: With filing day having passed in Pennsylvania, now it’s time to count the signatures, and one candidates who’s running into some trouble is a surprise: the squeaky-clean former US Attorney Pat Meehan, the Republican running in the 7th. He’s asked the Delaware County DA to investigate his own signatures, after finding about some potentially fraudulent signatures on his lists. Meanwhile, Meehan seems to have dodged a long-rumored primary challenge from former TV news reporter Dawn Stensland, who never filed to run.

• CA-LG: San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom looks like he’s going to go ahead and voluntarily demote himself to the no-man’s land that is Lt. Governor. He paid his filing fee yesterday, and will have an official kickoff for his campaign either today or tomorrow.

• Demographics: Alan Abramowitz has a very interesting piece on demographic change and how it only bodes ill for Republicans (or at least the current angry-white-guy version of the Republicans) in the long run. That angry white base keeps shrinking as a percentage of the population, with non-whites on track to be 35% of the electorate by 2020.

• Branding: With his presidential run (and its ubiquitous star and blue background) fading in the rear-view mirror, John McCain has launched a completely new logo to go with his new persona. It has a flowing flag instead, on a background that’s much… um… whiter.

About a week ago, I was talking with someone about how the governor’s legislative redistricting plan was rejected in 2002. I began to wonder how different that plan was from that of the 1990s and before, so I did a search. I could not find legislative districts from before the 1990s, but I did find this: http://planning.maryland.gov/M… which shows what the 1990s era districts looked like. The idea then dawned upon me to try to recreate that map using Dave’s redistricting app and then examine how the state has changed since then. First, the map:

Then, here’s the data, which shows whether the 1990 configuration of the district is overpopulated or underpopulated, the %Obama received, the %white in 1990 and 2010, and the %black in 1990 and 2010. Dark blue districts had the white percentage decrease by over 20% or more, while light blue had the white percentage decrease by 10-20%.

http://spreadsheets.google.com…

Conclusions: The past 20 years has brought some sizable population changes to Maryland. Montgomery, Frederick, Charles, St. Marys, Howard, Harford, and Cecil Counties, have all increased relatively in population. Almost all of that has come from the demise of Baltimore City, which has seen uniform decline. Other areas which have seen declines are the Essex/Dundalk area of Eastern Baltimore County, Western Maryland west of Hagerstown, and inner Prince George’s County.

With the notable exception of the lower Eastern Shore, the vast majority of Maryland has been getting more diverse. Large swaths of Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Howard County, Montgomery County, PG County, and Charles County have all seen their white percentage decrease by over 20% in 20 years. The area with the greatest change may have been the Bowie-centered 23rd district, which was majority-white in 1990, but has since seen its white percentage cut in half.

In the traditional white-flight paradigm, areas that became more diverse also decreased in population. This is still visible in Maryland in parts of Baltimore City and PG County. However, recent trends show many areas with strong minority growth also growing rapidly. Areas like this in Maryland include most of Montgomery County, southern Frederick County, Howard County, outer PG County, Charles County, and the Owings Mills area of Baltimore County. While heavily-white and Republican St. Mary’s County and Bel Air (Harford County) did post some of the largest gains statewide, these changes are really offset by the gains elsewhere, and will not likely have much of an effect on Maryland politics.

These changes matter greatly when you consider how much more Republican Maryland was in 1990. Though hard to believe, Maryland did vote for Bush in 1988, with areas like Montgomery County only barely voting for Dukakis. In addition, Prince George’s County was only about 50% black in 1990, versus the 66% that it is now, so Dukakis surely did much worse than Obama did there. Bush even got 57% in Baltimore County, where areas like Randallstown were only about 55% black versus the upwards of 90% that they are now (look at the old 10 stats on that Maryland General Assembly website). Under the old demographics, it would’ve been impossible to draw District 1 so that it voted for Obama, something demonstrated multiple times here on Swing State Project.

Thus, while the Democratic Party’s fortunes nationwide may ebb and sway, there’s very little room for the Republican Party to grow in Maryland. Demographic changes have put Maryland out of reach for the Republicans in the past 20 years, and will likely continue to do so.

This is the first part of two posts examining the Texas panhandle, a rock-hard Republican stronghold. The second part can be found here.



In the Texas panhandle and the empty plains surrounding it, Democrats go to die. There is no place in the country more Republican than this rural region, where conservatism is ingrained bone-deep and from birth. Not even the most Mormon stretches of Utah, or whitest areas of the Deep South, exceed the Republicanism of this part of Texas.

Yet, in the vast emptiness of the Texas prairie there are a number of interesting patterns – some of which are quite strange to behold.

More below.

Yellow-dog Democrats

Believe it or not, much of the most Republican place in the nation used to be Democratic territory, voting for the blue candidate even when the rest of America did not. Now, of course, the same could be said for the entire American South, which routinely gave badly losing Democratic presidential candidates over 70% (and often 90%) of the vote. Texas was no exception to this rule; President Truman lost a grand total of eight counties during the 1948 election, for instance.

The difference with the Texas panhandle, however, was that parts of it continued to vote Democratic even as the Solid South collapsed. In 1956, for instance, President Dwight Eisenhower won re-election by a solid 15.40% and cracked the South. One such crack included Texas, which Mr. Eisenhower won by 11.28%. Mr. Eisenhower carried the state backed mainly by its Republican-leaning cities (an oxymoron nowadays), while much of rural Texas voted for Democrat Adlai Stevenson. This included almost the entire panhandle:



This Democratic-leaning trend continued for some time, even after the 1964 realignment of the South. The panhandle cast a strong ballot for Senator Hubert Humphrey and President Jimmy Carter (both times), while a number of counties voted to Governor Dukakis and even hapless Senator Walter Mondale. As late as 1996, when President Bill Clinton lost Texas by 4.93%, there still remained a flicker of yellow-dog Democratic strength:



It was one President George W. Bush who finally crushed this Democratic tradition; since his time, the panhandle has begun voting uniformly Republican. But for all its current love of Republicans, it must be noted that this phenomenon is relatively recent – although long in coming.

• AR-Sen: Shortest Senate campaign ever. Former Arkansas Farm Bureau president Stanley Reed, about one week into his campaign, dropped out today, citing health reasons. Reed, with his resume and connections, was considered a very credible candidate when stacked up against the rest of the ragtag band of misfits running for the GOP. On the Dem side comes the intriguing news that the SEIU is paying down Lt. Gov. Bill Halter‘s campaign debt. Daily Kos’s Jed seems optimistic that the SEIU is facilitating a primary run against Blanche Lincoln (they said he “has a very bright political future,” although not specifically referencing the Senate race), although, considering there were rumors that the SEIU’s anti-Gilbert Baker ad was interpreted as a sign to Lincoln that they had her back (in exchange for her cooperation on an HCR cloture vote), it’s also possible this could be a carrot from the SEIU to Halter to stay out of the primary. This one’s worth keeping an eye on.

• AZ-Sen: This might be a clue that there’s some growing substance to the rumors that ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth is gearing up for a primary run against John McCain. He’s in Washington DC this week, meeting with potential supporters including conservative advocacy group Citizens United.

• CT-Sen: I’m not sure how much sway former Democratic state party chair Ed Marcus has over Chris Dodd or anybody else, but he’s gone on the record advocating that Dodd hang it up and make way for Richard Blumenthal. Dodd’s people responded that Marcus has some sort of old grudge against Dodd.

• KY-Sen: Um, whoops. Rand Paul’s campaign manager Chris Hightower had to resign his post yesterday after local blog Barefoot and Progressive found racist comments on Hightower’s MySpace page (and also video of performances by Hightower’s death metal band… gotta love those crazy libertarians). (Wait… MySpace? Srsly?) Primary rival Trey Grayson’s campaign wasted no time jumping on this, adding some fuel to their argument that Paul isn’t coming from mainstream Republican turf.

• IL-Gov: Rasmussen added some gubernatorial numbers to their Illinois sample, finding fairly comfortable leads for both incumbent Pat Quinn and Dem comptroller Dan Hynes against their Republican opposition. It wouldn’t be a Rasmussen poll without something inexplicable in it, though, and this time it’s the decision not to poll former AG Jim Ryan, who’s probably the Republican field’s frontrunner. Still, Quinn beats state party chair Andy McKenna 41-33, state Sen. Bill Brady 45-30, and state Sen. Kirk Dillard 41-30, while Hynes beats McKenna 43-30, Brady 46-27, and Dillard 42-29. Interesting to see Hynes overperforming Quinn in the general, even as Hynes looks unlikely to make it out of the primary; that may have to do with some Blago-related stench coming off of Quinn (Blago’s ex-LG, although they had absolutely nothing to do with each other), or just the reversal of positions, where the former reformer Quinn is now the insider and the well-connected Hynes is now the outsider. In the Dem primary, long-time SoS Jesse White threw his endorsement to Quinn. The Dem field also shrank to only Quinn and Hynes as the two minor candidates were vanquished; attorney Ed Scanlon was knocked off the ballot, while activist Dock Walls withdrew.

• NY-Gov: It had looked like Erie County Exec Chris Collins had gaffed his way out of contention for a possible run for the GOP gubernatorial nomination (after a bizarre tirade against Assembly speaker Sheldon Silver). But with Rudy Giuliani pretty clearly out of the field and ex-Rep. Rick Lazio exciting absolutely nobody, it looks like Collins may still take a whack at it. He just hired a campaign consulting firm run by a former Giuliani aide.

• IL-10: One of the four GOPers in the field in the 10th, Bill Cadigan, has dropped out; without state Rep. Beth Coulson’s name rec or the money of Dick Green or Bob Dold, he really didn’t have a foot in the door. Speaking of Bob Dold, Bob Dold is now on the air with a TV spot touting Bob Dold’s conservative economic views. Bob Dold!

• MN-06: If there’s someone out there who seems like she’d be one of those crazy bosses, it’s Rep. Michele Bachmann. She’s had a terrible time holding onto chiefs of staff, and now she’s facing a rupture with her entire fundraising group, described as a “defection” (although it’s not clear where they’re defecting to).

• NH-02: This isn’t going to endear ex-Rep. Charlie Bass to the teabag set, as he seeks to reclaim his seat. Bass just got a $2,500 check from NRCC chair Pete Sessions’ PAC. The anti-establishment right already has to be inclined to support right-wing radio talker Jennifer Horn over the moderate Bass.

• OH-15: Ex-state Sen. (and 2008 loser) Steve Stivers won’t get the GOP primary to himself; he’s facing a challenge from the right from John Adams, who’s labeling himself as the “conservative alternative.” Stivers also faces third-party right-winger David Ryon in the general, similar to what hamstrung him last time and let Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy squeak into office.

• OH-17: Ex-Rep. (and ex-con) Jim Traficant is in the news again, sounding revved up to, well, yell and gesticulate a lot, as always. He’s also still talking about another run for Congress, although he’s not sure where. He said he’d circulate nominating petitions in three different districts. His former seat in the 17th is likeliest, although so too is the neighboring 6th.

• PA-10: The race in the 10th has been slow to take shape, compared with most other red-leaning districts held by Democrats. But with state Rep. Mike Peifer recently having announced he’s interested in a race against Rep. Chris Carney, now someone else potentially higher up the food chain is checking it out too: former US Attorney Tom Marino, who already (wisely) passed on the race in 2008.

• PA-15: Here’s one more district with teabagger troubles for the NRCC and the Republican establishment. Rep. Charlie Dent is facing his toughest challenge yet from Democratic mayor of Bethlehem John Callahan, and now comes word of a challenge in the GOP primary from 9/12 movement member Matthew Benol. There’s also a third-party teabagger awaiting Dent in the general, Jake Towne.

• TN-06: State Sen. Jim Tracy seemed to have an early edge on securing the GOP nod in the now-open 6th, vacated recently by Democratic Rep. Bart Gordon. That was bolstered by his recent announcement that he’d already raised $100K in funds just this week, and that he’d gotten the endorsement of fellow state Sen. (and potential primary rival) Bill Ketron. However, he’s got some competition from another fellow state Senator now: Diane Black announced that she’s joining the race too. (Black is from suburban Gallatin, while Tracy is from more rural Shelbyville.)

• TN-08: Republican candidate Stephen Fincher had been successfully playing the “I’m just a humble farmer/gospel singer who’s never even been to Washington” role for a while, it seems, but suddenly the teabaggers are turning their wrath on even him, too. They’re taking an issue with his fundraising, as almost all of his money is coming from nearby farm families who’ve maxed-out on donations (which is a good sign, as his big haul so far was just him picking the low-hanging fruit; now the real test comes). What’s alarming to the anti-pork crowd is that how deep in the pocket of Big Ag he seems to be; his supporters have received a cumulative $80,000,000 in farm subsidies, and Fincher himself has gotten $6,000,000 in farm subsidies over the years, including $800,000 in 2007 alone.

• WA-03: The Democratic field seems to be solidifying, with Olympia-area state Rep. Brendan Williams, a frequently-mentioned possible candidate, deciding against a run. With state Sen. Craig Pridemore and state Rep. Deb Wallace both in, the two main candidates are both from Vancouver instead. Also worth noting: peace activist Cheryl Crist is in the race for the Dems too. Crist primaried Brian Baird in 2008, doing well at the activist-dominated nominating convention but making little impact in the actual primary.

• GA-St. House: It’s official; David Ralston is the new Republican speaker of Georgia’s House, following the suicide attempt and resignation of former speaker Glenn Richardson. If you’re looking for broader implications, it takes Ralston’s name out of contention in the open seat in GA-09, where he’d been rumored to be interested in a run.

• Demographics: Josh Goodman does some neat number-tweaking, overlaying Census projections onto the 2008 presidential election to try and predict the 2052 election. Assuming that racial groups keep voting for the same parties at the same proportions, he projects 58-40 Democratic edge. Of course, that’s easier said than done, as, for starters, Hispanics could return to their 2004-level GOP performance; also, as he points out, “Heck, in 40 years the Tea Party and the Green Party might be the major players in contesting the all-important cyborg vote.”

• AR-Sen: We’re up to eight Republicans packed into the GOP Senate field in Arkansas, none of whom are exactly top-tier but many of whom seem to have the capability to win both the primary and the general against Blanche Lincoln. The new guy is Stanley Reed, and although he hasn’t held elective office before, he seems to have the insider connections to make a serious go of it: he is former president of the Arkansas Farm Bureau, and before that was chair of the Univ. of Arkansas Board of Trustees.

• CA-Sen/Gov: Here’s an interesting rumor, courtesy of Chris Cillizza: moderate ex-Rep. Tom Campbell, probably the GOP’s greatest threat in the general but an underfunded third-wheel in the gubernatorial primary, is considering moving over to the Senate race. Perhaps the news that Insurance Comm. Steve Poizner was planning to spend $15 million of his own moolah on his stalled gubernatorial bid was the last straw? It vaguely makes sense for Campbell (who has already run for Senate twice before, most recently in 2000), as he’d face off against underwhelming Carly Fiorina (who has lots of her own money, but no inclination to use it) and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, who has nothing but the wrath of the teabaggers powering him.

• IL-Sen: The Chicago Tribune has released polls of the primary fields in the Illinois Senate race, revealing no surprises but also still a lot of people left to make up their minds. The Democratic field finds Alexi Giannoulias in the lead at 31, with Cheryle Jackson within kind-of striking distance at 17, David Hoffman at 9, and free-spending attorney Jacob Meister at 1 (with 38% undecided). For the GOP, the most notable number may be that Patrick Hughes, who’s gotten all the buzz as the guy behind whom all the right-wingers are coalescing, is actually getting nowhere at all. Hughes is at 3, tied with virtually unknown Kathleen Thomas (a former school board member from Springfield). Mark Kirk is at 41, but with 47% undecided, he still has a lot of selling to do. Speaking of which, the DSCC has a new website devoted solely to the man and his nonstop campaign-trail flip-flops: Two-Faced Kirk.

• IL-Gov: The same Chicago Tribune sample also looked at the gubernatorial primary fields. Incumbent Pat Quinn seems to be having little trouble on his path to the Dem nomination, beating Comptroller Dan Hynes 49-23. (Hynes may be second-guessing himself for getting into this race instead of the Senate field.) On the GOP side, it looks like former AG Jim Ryan (and 2002 loser) is in pole position despite his late entry to the race, thanks to being the only figure with statewide name rec. He’s at 26, with state party chair Andy McKenna at 12, downstate state Sen. Bill Brady at 10, suburban state Sen. Kirk Dillard at 9, businessman Adam Andrzejewski at 6, and DuPage Co. Board President Bob Schillerstrom at 2.

• PA-Gov: Rasmussen’s poll from last week of PA-Sen had a governor question too, and it shows all of the Dems getting thumped by Republican AG Tom Corbett. That probably has a lot to do with name recognition (Corbett gets his face in the news every day with Bonusgate, which is good for a bizarrely-high favorable of 59/18, while Auditor Jack Wagner is the only Dem with a statewide profile), but the Dems are starting out in a hole here once campaigning starts in earnest. Wagner fares best against Corbett, losing 43-30, while Corbett beats Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato 44-28, ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel 48-26, and Scranton mayor Chris Doherty 46-23.

• NY-Gov (pdf): Breaking! David Paterson is still in deep trouble. He’s at 23/76 approval, and 19/65 re-elects. He loses the Democratic primary to Andrew Cuomo 67-23 (and opinion is certainly solidifying behind Cuomo: 50% want him to run for Governor, while 31% want him to run again for AG). The good news is that Paterson still beats hapless ex-Rep. Rick Lazio in the general, 42-40, while Cuomo beats Lazio 68-22. Siena doesn’t look at Rudy Giuliani at all, making his disappearance from the governor’s race pretty apparent. Siena also takes a look at the Comptroller’s race (although without any William Thompson or Eliot Spitzer permutations), and find Dem Thomas DiNapoli beating GOPer John Faso, 40-24.

• RI-Gov: One state where the gubernatorial race looks less and less likely to go the Republicans’ way is Rhode Island, where their only announced candidate, businessman Rory Smith, quietly backed out of the race on Friday afternoon, citing his “limited political experience and political network.” Maybe state Rep. Joe Trillo could get coaxed back into the race for the GOP — or they could just throw their backing behind former Sen. and former Republican Lincoln Chafee‘s independent bid (although based on his recent comments about the state party, it doesn’t sound like he’d want anything to do with their backing).

• SC-Gov (pdf): One more gubernatorial poll, leftover from last week. PPP polled South Carolina, and found numbers very similar to Rasmussen‘s numbers from last week. Basically, Democrats need to hope for a matchup between Jim Rex (the Superintendent of Education, and only statewide Dem officeholder) and hard-partying, car-racing, plane-crashing Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer; Rex wins that matchup, 37-36. Dems lose every other permutation. Bauer manages to beat state Sen. Vincent Sheheen 38-33, and Robert Ford 37-33. AG Henry McMaster beats Rex 40-31, Sheheen 41-27, and Ford 42-27. And Rep. Gresham Barrett beats Rex 40-33, Sheheen 41-26, and Ford 42-28. (By way of comparison, Rasmussen finds Rex beating Bauer 36-35 and losing his other matchups.) PPP didn’t poll the primaries, but based on favorables, McMaster may be the likeliest GOP nominee, at 30/20, compared with Barrett, little-known outside his district at 14/17, and Bauer, toxic at 22/43. PPP also ran a generic D ballot against GOP Sen. Jim DeMint, who has no-name opposition so far, finding DeMint winning 47-38.

• TX-Gov: As expected, Kinky Friedman ended his Democratic gubernatorial primary bid today. Friedman declined to endorse either Bill White (whose entry probably precipitated Friedman’s exit) or Farouk Shami, despite some connections to Shami. What may not have been expected was that Friedman dropped down to the Agriculture Commissioner race, where he’ll join fellow gubernatorial race refugee Hank Gilbert. While Friedman doesn’t seem to have an agricultural background, he does have as an advisor and backer former Ag Comm. and populist pundit Jim Hightower.

• ID-01: I hadn’t heard any rumblings about this happening, but in case anyone was wondering, Larry Grant (the former software exec who barely lost the 2006 ID-01 race to Bill Sali) said he wouldn’t primary Democratic freshman Rep. Walt Minnick in 2010. Minnick has raised some hackles for being the most conservative member of the Democratic caucus (not that that shouldn’t be a surprise in an R+18 district, but he’s been taking that to extremes lately, leading the way to scrap the new Consumer Financial Protection Agency). Grant also denied that he’d be running in 2010 as a moderate Republican (conceivably to Minnick’s left?), although he seemed to suggest that he could prevail against that field of wannabes, accusing Vaughn Ward of being a “Sarah Palin Republican” and Raul Labrador a “Bill Sali Republican.” (I wonder what that would make Bill Sali, if he decided to jump in?)

• IL-10: In the Democratic primary clash in the open 10th, state Rep. Julie Hamos scored a big labor endorsement today, from the AFSCME.

• IL-14: Ethan Hastert a moderate? Either the apple falls far from the tree, or the Main Street Partnership is having to greatly expand their definition of “moderate” is order to stay relevant in a GOP intent on purging itself into oblivion. At any rate, the Main Streeters’ PAC gave to Hastert (making clear where the ideological fault lines lie in his primary against state Sen. Randy Hultgren), along with OH-15’s Steve Stivers, OH-16’s Jim Renacci, and NH-02’s Charlie Bass.

• KS-03: The specter of Republican civil war in the open seat race in Kansas’s 3rd is abating, as state Sen. (and 2008 loser) Nick Jordan has the respect of both the moderate and conservative wings of the state’s party. Maybe most significantly, state Sen. Jeff Colyer, from the fire-breathing camp, said today that he won’t challenge Jordan in the primary. Moderate state Rep. Kevin Yoder is still exploring the race, though.

• PA-10: Sophomore Democratic Rep. Chris Carney has been one of the juiciest targets with only token Republican opposition, but the GOP may have found an elected official willing to take him on: state Rep. Michael Peifer, who represents a rural portion of the district.

• SC-01: Another Dem is in the hunt in the 1st, for the right to go up against Rep. Henry Brown (assuming he survives his primary). Retired Navy officer and accountant Dick Withington is getting in; his only political experience is losing a state Rep. race in 2004.

• TN-03: The open seat in the 3rd should be attracting at least some Democratic interest, but following the withdrawal of establishment candidate Paula Flowers last month, now even the race’s Some Dude bailed out: businessman (and 2006 loser) Brent Benedict got out, citing family health concerns. A few other potentially-credible Democrats are now looking at the race, though, including Chattanooga city councilor Andrae McGary and Hamilton County Democratic party chair Jeff Brown.

• TX-10: Democratic businessman Jack McDonald has gotten lots of buzz for solid fundraising for a potential run against GOP Rep. Michael McCaul, who looks increasingly shaky in the demographically-changing 10th. Last week, he removed the “exploratory” part of his campaign account, making it official, although clearly he’s been acting like a candidate all year.

• VA-05: The Virginia GOP decided on a primary, rather than a convention, to pick the person who takes on endangered freshman Rep. Tom Perriello in the 5th. In a weird way, the primary is better news for the party’s establishment, as the conventions tend to be dominated by the extremists who pick pure but unelectable candidates (recall last year’s Senate flap, where the decision to have a convention drove out moderate Rep. Tom Davis and left them with ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore). With their top contender, state Sen. Rob Hurt, coming from the sane wing of the party, that increases his odds of getting through to the general — but the downside is that this may drive dissatisfied teabaggers to the third-party right-wing candidacy of Bradley Rees in the general.

• WA-03: A journeyman Democrat is considering the open seat race in the 3rd, potentially setting up a primary with early entrant state Rep. Deb Wallace. Denny Heck was a state Rep. in the 80s, lost a Superintendent of Education race, became Gov. Booth Gardner’s chief of staff, and then founded TVW, the state’s local equivalent of C-SPAN. The article also mentions a couple other Dems interested in the race not previously mentioned, including state Sen. Brian Hatfield.

• Mayors: In a runoff election that had an undercurrent of homophobia thanks to the involvement of outside groups, city controller Annise Parker won on Saturday, making Houston by far the largest city to ever elect an openly LGBT mayor. She defeated former city attorney Gene Locke 53-47.

• Redistricting: The Texas Tribune takes a look at the many moving parts in legislative redistricting post-2010 in Texas. Factors include whether the Dems will be able to pick up the state House next year (sounding less likely), and which state officials are on the Legislative Redistricting Board (which takes over if the legislature can’t agree, which seems likely anyway since there’s a 2/3s requirement for the maps to clear the Senate and the GOP is short of 2/3s there).

• Demographics: Governing Magazine has an interesting piece on Gwinnett County, Georgia, which is as good an example as any of how suburbs, even in some of the reddest states, are becoming bluer as they become more diverse thanks to immigration. Gwinnett County has fallen below 50% non-Hispanic white, and it gave Obama 44% of the vote last year.

• Polltopia: PPP is asking for help yet again on which congressional district to poll next. This time, it’ll be a GOP-held district: Michele Bachmann’s MN-06, Lee Terry’s NE-02, or Pat Tiberi’s OH-12.

• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon has picked up a major critic in her Senate run: one of her former employees, in the form of 66-year-old former pro wrestler Superstar Billy Graham. Graham is a physical wreck from his days in the WWF, thanks to steroid abuse and a number of hip replacements, with no pension or health care from WWE. He plans to keep dogging the McMahon campaign as McMahon keeps trying to sanitize her previous career.

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist is dropping the smiley above-the-fray approach; he’s promising to step up direct engagements with Marco Rubio, now that it looks like we’ve got a real race on our hands. Crist will go after Rubio for failure to move important pieces of conservative legislation during his time as state House speaker.

• KS-Sen, KS-04: This seems to exist mostly as whispers and rumors, but there’s word that Rep. Todd Tiahrt, not getting much traction in polls or fundraising or endorsements, may drop out of the GOP Senate primary against Rep. Jerry Moran. (Tiahrt’s people pushed back against the idea, saying they’re relying on movement grassroots forces that things like “polls” don’t pick up on. They actually also tried redbaiting Moran over his sponsorship of legislation to allow American travel to Cuba, indicating they won’t go quietly.) The question of Tiahrt running for House instead also presents a conundrum for state Rep. Raj Goyle in KS-04, who’s turning into one of the Dems’ best 2010 challengers — would Goyle be better off running in an open seat, or against the 16-year vet Tiahrt in what’s shaping up to be an anti-incumbent year?

• KY-Sen: There had been some talk about Cathy Bailey (a wealthy Bush Pioneer and W’s ambassador to Latvia), back when the GOP was still casting about for an alternative to Jim Bunning. All of a sudden, she’s back, saying she’s considering the race and sounding none too pleased with Trey Grayson (too “moderate” for her tastes) and Rand Paul (too “extreme”). I can’t see her winning the primary, but with her money, she could conceivably peel away enough mainstream GOP votes from Grayson to flip the primary to Paul.

• MT-Sen: It looks like Max Baucus may have suffered some residual damage from his high-profile role in health care reform; he’s down to 44% approval, from 67% approval at this point two years ago, according to an MSU-Billings poll. He’s lagging all other statewide officials, including Jon Tester (56/25) and Brian Schweitzer (62/20). The problem seems to be that Baucus gets only 67% approval among Dems, compared with 81% for Tester and 82% for Schweitzer; a plurality of Montanans, including 73% of Dems, support a public option, so Baucus’s decline among Dems doesn’t seem hard to diagnose.

• NC-Sen: Former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker said he won’t be running for Senate, although he’d strongly considered it. With Rep. Bob Etheridge’s recent “no” also, it’s looking more and more like SoS Elaine Marshall will have a lightly contested path to the Dem nomination (her main opponent is attorney Kenneth Lewis).

• NH-Sen: One other important “no” in a Senate race: RNC member and one-time House candidate Sean Mahoney, who had been making lots of candidate-like noises, said he won’t run in the GOP field. If you look a few moves ahead in the chess game, that’s good news for us, as having Mahoney out of the race means fewer votes split on the field’s right flank, giving right-winger Ovide Lamontagne a stronger shot at taking out establishment fave Kelly Ayotte, which would give Dems a much weaker opponent in the general.

• WI-Sen: Former Gov. (and brief presidential candidate) Tommy Thompson isn’t ruling out a Senate bid, although it seems unlikely; he’ll make a decision “next year.” Thompson’s rather strange statement is that he’s “looking at governor, looking at senator, and looking at mayor of Elroy. One of the three.” Seeing as how this is similar to the NY-Sen-B or ND-Sen races (an unlikely challenge to materialize, but one that would be a hot race if it did), SSP is moving the Wisconsin race back on to the big board, as a Race to Watch.

• WV-Sen: Congratulations to Robert Byrd, who hit an astonishing milestone today: the longest-serving Congressperson of all time. Byrd (a Representative from 1952-1958 and a Senator since 1958) has been in Congress for more than 25% of Congress’s existence.

• KS-Gov: Kansas Dems have finally nailed down a solid candidate to take on retiring Sen. Sam Brownback in the gubernatorial race. Retired pharmaceutical company executive Tom Wiggans will carry the flag for the Democrats in this uphill fight. (H/t Mike Nellis.)

• NY-19: I was tempted to put this story on the FP just so I could run the headline “Ball busted!” Roll Call is sounding pretty pissed off at having gotten initially snookered by Greg Ball and his sketchy poll from yesterday. His internal poll only sampled two-thirds of the district (Westchester, Putnam, and Dutchess Counties), oversampling Republican Putnam County and leaving out Orange and Rockland Counties altogether, counties where Hall won last year. Ball’s backers say they’ll do a more traditional poll soon and are still pleased with their findings.

• PA-10: Good news for the GOP: they’ve found an elected official who’s interested in going up against Blue Dog Dem Chris Carney in the sprawling, red-leaning 10th, where they’ve been struggling with recruitment. The bad news is: Snyder Co. Commissioner Malcolm Derk is 27 (and is hard-pressed to look 17 — check out the photo at the link), and Snyder County, deep in the hills, has a population of 38K and is at the wrong end of the district from the population centers.

• WI-08: A line is forming among GOP challengers to Rep. Steve Kagen, and now there’s a former state legislator among them. Ex-state Rep. Terry McCormick served three terms and then lost the 2006 primary in WI-08 against then-state Rep. John Gard when it was an open seat, and now she’s back for another try. There are a couple county supervisors in the race, but the NRCC seems to like Reid Ribble, a businessman who can bring his own money to the race.

• CA-St. Ass.: Republican Orange County Supervisor Chris Norby finished first in the special election (to replace “Hot Mike” Duvall) in AD-72 last night. His 37% wasn’t enough to avoid a second round. He’ll face Democrat John MacMurray (who finished second at 27%) and a Green Party candidate; two other Republicans, Linda Ackerman and Richard Faher, pulled in 20% and 13% respectively, so if Norby consolidates the GOP votes in this red-leaning seat (which falls within CA-40 in the US House) he’s on track to holding the seat.

• NRCC: Pete Sessions, emulating the Dems’ spread-the-field strategy of recent cycles, says he wants to have 435 districts that Republicans are playing in. He may have missed an important piece of information: the Illinois filing deadline is past, and the Republicans are already guaranteed not to be playing in IL-01 and IL-04. Well, 433 is close.

• Mayors: There are dueling internal polls of the upcoming Houston mayoral runoff, one of the two big mayoral races left on the table (Atlanta being the other one). City controller Annise Parker leads former city attorney Gene Locke, 47-34 in her own poll, while in Locke’s poll, Parker has a narrower 43-39 lead.

• Demographics: NDN, a liberal think tank that spends a lot of time on Latino issues, has done some projecting of 2010 re-apportionment, and likes what it sees. They see Texas gaining four seats, and possibly three of those could be drawn as Hispanic-influence seats in Dallas, Houston, and the Rio Grande Valley. They also see Florida gaining a seat, and recommend creation of a Hispanic-influence seat in central Florida (where much of the state’s growth, both overall and among Hispanics, has been).

• Parties: CNN has a poll that points to the current disparity between the parties: Democrats are a lot more tolerant of the big tent. 58% of Dems prefer to see nomination of candidates who can beat the Republicans, even if they don’t agree on all the issues, while 51% of Republicans prefer to see candidates who agree with them even if they have a poor chance of beating the Democrat.

• Votes: Donkeylicious has an interesting project reminiscent of SSP’s own PVI/Vote Index, looking at Dems and seeing how they match up with their districts’ leans. A lot of the same names show up among bad Dems as we found, but they do some interesting breaking things down by region and by freshman or sophomore status.

• CT-Sen: Rumors are popping up that ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, still the GOP Senate primary’s frontrunner by most people’s estimation but financially outgunned on a variety of different fronts, may switch to the now-open gubernatorial race. Simmons, however, says his plans are “unchanged,” and touts his foreign policy background, saying that’s much more useful in the Senate. Meanwhile, an interesting CQ piece looks at pro wrestling svengali Linda McMahon’s role in the race, and wonders whether her vast fortunes will really help her that much in a state where a convention attended by party insiders (where Simmons would be favored) is decisive in shaping the field. (Although even if she doesn’t win the convention outright or meet the 15% threshold for getting on the ballot, she can still get on the ballot by collecting enough signatures — certainly an expensive process, but one she could pay for with whatever change she finds under her couch cushions.)

• FL-Sen: Here’s about as close as you can get to a Jeb Bush endorsement without his lips actually moving. Bush’s sons, Jeb Bush Jr. and George P. Bush, are headlining a Marco Rubio fundraiser in mid-December.

• CT-Gov: Ned Lamont is already staffing up, and a familiar face is going to be one of his key advisors: Howard Wolfson. Wolfson was adviser to Lamont in 2006, but is better known for his lead role in Hillary Clinton’s campaign last year, as well as Michael Bloomberg’s campaign this year.

• MN-Gov: Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak ran into a snafu with his campaign still on the launching pad, as the state’s campaign finance board ruled that he spent money on his campaign before he’d filed the campaign paperwork. Rybak paid for a message-testing poll, although it didn’t directly ask questions about the governor’s race. If you want to see the whole polling memo (not something you usually get to see with internal polls), check it out.

• WI-Gov: Politics abhors a vacuum, and Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett is acting quickly to fill the vacuum that has formed on the Democratic side of the gubernatorial race. He says he’ll make a decision “one way or the other” by the week’s end.

• CO-04: Although state Rep. Cory Gardner is clearly the NRCC’s favorite in the Republican field, that didn’t deter former Ft. Collins city councilor Diggs Brown, who will be announcing his candidacy on Saturday. He had been considered a likely candidate all year, but was on a year-long Army deployment and unable to announce until now. Univ. of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero rounds out the trio of GOPers seeking to take on first-term Dem Rep. Betsy Markey.

• FL-13: James Golden, an African-American minister, attorney and former Bradenton city councilor, launched his campaign last week against Rep. Vern Buchanan. Golden will face an uphill fight against the self-funding Buchanan — unless Buchanan, facing ongoing scrutiny over mysterious campaign finance machinations, goes down in a legal implosion.

• ID-01: This may be a surprise, or may not — state House majority leader Ken Roberts withdrew from the GOP primary race to take on freshman Dem Rep. Walt Minnick. Roberts cited health reasons. Roberts initially would have seemed to have a leg up based on name recognition, but veteran and former McCain campaign official Vaughn Ward seemed to be capturing most of the buzz, including a good fundraising start and NRCC touting.

• IN-03: Democrats have taken notice in the last few cycles of Rep. Mark Souder’s decidedly lackadaisical approach to re-election in this dark-red district, but now someone from the teabaggy right is taking notice too, and launching a primary campaign. Republican Attorney Phil Troyer (a former staffer to Dick Lugar and Dan Coats) announced his campaign today. (This seems less like an ideological challenge, as Souder is down-the-line conservative, as just opportunistic, taking advantage of his sloth.) Tom Hayhurst, who narrowly lost in 2006, is on track to the Democratic nod again.

• MN-03: Add a second Democratic challenger to the list in the 3rd: Minnesota PTA president, and executive director of the Minnesota Optometrists Association, Jim Meffert filed to run. He joins psychiatrist Maureen Hackett; they may still both be joined by state Sen. Teri Bonoff, although Meffert says that Bonoff has hinted to him that she’s likely to take a pass.

• NJ-03: Best wishes to state Sen. Diane Allen, who is entering treatment for an aggressive form of cancer. The moderate Allen, who lost the 2002 Senate primary and was short-listed for Lt. Governor this year, had been considered a possible candidate against Rep. John Adler in the 3rd.

• NV-02: We’ve got another Democrat lined up to go against Rep. Dean Heller in the 2nd (after Cindy Trigg dropped out several months ago), and he has a strong resume. Jack Schofield is a member of the state’s Board of Regents, and is a former state Senator. Unfortunately, he may not be running the most vigorous campaign in the world, as he was a state Senator in the 1970s, and is a World War II veteran (do the math).

• NY-23: The Washington Post has a nice, human-level retrospective on Dede Scozzafava’s collapse in the special election and the difference in how the GOP and the Dems treated her, leading to her Bill Owens endorsement. Meanwhile, things continue to play out, as Scozzafava either stepped down from or was stripped of her leadership role in the Assembly Republicans, depending on who you believe. Start counting down to her party switch (not that the Assembly Dems need the help, what with their 109-41 margin).

• OH-02: What’s with all these former Apprentice contestants thinking that’s somehow a stepping stone to political office? Surya Yalimanchili is now planning to run as an independent in the 2nd, currently held by GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt. He’s sounding centrist notes so far rather than sounding teabaggy, though, so he may not help the Dems too much by siphoning off far-right Republican votes.

• PA-07: One more Democrat is getting into the open seat field in the 7th, although it’s unclear whether she’ll get much traction against state Rep. Bryan Lentz. Environmental lawyer Gail Conner, an Obama convention delegate last year, threw her hat into the ring.

• PA-11: Third time’s the charm? It looks like Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta will give crusty Dem incumbent Paul Kanjorski another challenge next year. Barletta fell just a few points shy of knocking off Kanjorski last year, prompting Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien to enter the Democratic primary for the seat. With pressure from both sides, one has to wonder if Kanjo will hit the eject button. (J)

• PA-17: Here’s an example of how voting against health care reform does Blue Dogs a fat lot of good: Rep. Tim Holden got about two days of peace before a Republican state Senator started making noises about a campaign against him anyway. Holden has had little in the way of opposition recently, but now he may face David Argall, who represents Holden’s coal-country turf of Schuylkill County. Relatedly, over in Ohio’s 16th, a Cleveland Plain Dealer profile of fellow anti-HCR vote John Boccieri shows how he managed to win over exactly no Republicans while ticking off his base.

• PA-19: With Republican Rep. Todd Platts looking to bail on the House and head over to the GAO, candidates are already scoping out the potential special election. Although it’s a dark-red district (R+12), one good-sounding Dem is gearing up: Ryan Sanders, real estate developer, president of the Red Lion Area Business Association, and most usefully, an organizer for the Obama campaign in York County.

• UT-02: More fallout from the health care reform vote: Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson (one of the ‘no’ votes) may, as a result, be facing a primary challenge from the left from state Sen. Scott McCoy (Utah’s only gay state Senator and one of its few liberals). The Salt Lake City-based district is still strongly Republican, although it hasn’t presented Matheson with much trouble lately.

• MI-St. Sen.: Here’s an interesting look at the fight by Dems to reclaim the state Senate in Michigan (currently held 22-16 by the GOP, but where the majority of seats are open next year), which would give them the redistricting trifecta. Even if they don’t pick it up (or do while losing the gubernatorial race), the state Supreme Court breaks any logjam, making next year’s Supreme Court elections paramount too. The article also contains a map of the Dems’ preferred redistricting plan, to turf out Rep. Vern Ehlers by creating a Dem-leaning 3rd District linking Grand Rapids and Muskegon.

• NH-St. Sen.: A special election will be happening in New Hampshire, giving the Dems the chance to add to their narrow lead in the state Senate there (they currently have a 14-10 edge). Republican state Sen. Ted Gatsas is poised to resign after having been elected Manchester mayor. Democratic state Rep. Jeff Goley is set to get into the race, though several other state House Dems are looking at it too.

• Mayors: The Seattle mayor’s race has finally come to an end, with as late-breaking ballots are going more toward former local Sierra Club leader Mike McGinn. Joe Mallahan conceded after McGinn’s lead pushed up to nearly 5,000, for a 51-49 edge.

• Ads: In the wake of this weekend’s health care vote, the DNC is planning to target 32 House Republicans in Obama districts who voted ‘no.’ They aren’t planning on using paid media yet, but will use the OFA campaign e-mail lists to organize in those districts. Meanwhile, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee is promising ads against 10 ‘no’ votes, saying it’s “payback” time: Barrow, Shuler, Herseth Sandlin, Murphy, Altmire, Nye, Kissell, Adler, Kosmas, and Ross.

• Demographics: If you’re like me, you may spend a lot of time wondering how Scandinavian-Americans got so liberal and Dutch-Americans got so conservative. Dreaminonempty takes a look at ancestry and voting patterns in a very interesting diary at Open Left.

With the 2008 American Community Survey data finally available broken down by congressional district, last week I started out by looking at how districts’ population had changed between the 2000 census and the 2008 estimate. Today, I’m delving a little deeper, looking at how the racial composition of the districts has changed.

Let’s start with the districts where the change in non-Hispanic whites has been the greatest. I’m starting with the greatest percentage loss in white population — and unlike the other charts I’m creating today, I’m extending this one to 25 spots and including presidential election data, because, for our purposes, this may be the most interesting and important chart. Not coincidentally, the districts that had the biggest percentage drops in non-Hispanic white population from 2000-2008 also had some of the most profound electoral shifts from 2000-2008.

District	Rep.	2000 white	2000 total	2000 %	2008 white	2008 total	2008 %	% Change	2000 election	2008 election
GA-07	Linder (R)	476,346	630,511	75.5	529,284	901,363	58.7	-16.8	31/69	39/60
GA-13	D. Scott (D)	295,107	629,403	46.9	236,807	785,643	30.1	-16.7	57/43	71/28
TX-22	Olson (R)	394,651	651,657	60.6	416,608	873,878	47.7	-12.9	33/67	41/58
CA-25	McKeon (R)	363,792	638,768	57.0	362,083	819,973	44.2	-12.8	42/56	49/48
CA-11	McNerney (D)	408,785	639,625	63.9	412,398	802,588	51.4	-12.5	45/53	54/44
FL-19	Wexler (D)	494,890	638,503	77.5	479,411	733,322	65.4	-12.1	73/27	65/34
IL-03	Lipinski (D)	445,179	653,292	68.1	384,898	684,703	56.2	-11.9	58/40	64/35
TX-24	Marchand (R)	415,842	651,137	63.9	402,111	772,580	52.0	-11.8	32/68	44/55
TX-10	McCaul (R)	431,992	651,523	66.3	522,558	955,363	54.7	-11.6	34/67	44/55
FL-20	Wasserman-Schultz (D)	426,891	639,795	66.7	376,936	672,717	56.0	-10.7	69/31	63/36
NV-03	Titus (D)	459,756	665,345	69.1	566,630	966,577	58.6	-10.5	49/48	55/43
TX-05	Hensarling (R)	466,321	651,919	71.5	449,229	733,117	61.3	-10.3	34/66	36/63
TX-07	Culberson (R)	439,217	651,682	67.4	429,249	751,034	57.2	-10.2	31/69	41/58
VA-11	Connolly (D)	430,091	643,582	66.8	432,337	758,422	57.0	-9.8	45/52	57/42
CA-10	vacant	417,008	638,238	65.3	386,575	696,175	55.5	-9.8	55/41	65/33
FL-12	Putnam (R)	461,239	640,096	72.1	488,712	782,178	62.5	-9.6	45/55	49/50
CA-22	McCarthy (R)	426,192	638,514	66.7	440,149	768,635	57.3	-9.5	33/64	38/60
AZ-03	Shadegg (R)	503,584	640,898	78.6	508,259	734,739	69.2	-9.4	43/55	42/57
CA-03	Lungren (R)	474,940	639,374	74.3	508,886	784,306	64.9	-9.4	41/55	49/49
TX-06	Barton (R)	430,223	651,691	66.0	443,892	783,790	56.6	-9.4	34/66	40/60
FL-15	Posey (R)	497,676	639,133	77.9	541,878	790,487	68.5	-9.3	46/54	48/51
TX-03	S. Johnson (R)	412,291	651,782	63.3	456,634	845,481	54.0	-9.2	30/70	42/57
MD-05	Hoyer (D)	400,668	662,203	60.5	380,676	741,163	51.4	-9.1	57/41	65/33
NJ-07	Lance (R)	511,737	647,269	79.1	477,114	682,187	69.9	-9.1	48/49	51/48
CA-13	Stark (D)	244,693	638,708	38.3	189,167	647,397	29.2	-9.1	67/30	74/24

Almost all of these districts moved sharply in the Democrats’ direction. The only exceptions are AZ-03, explainable by the McCain favorite son effect in 2008, and FL-19 and FL-20, where the largely elderly and Jewish populations were more amenable to Gore/Lieberman than they were to Obama. (Also worth noting; there has been a lot of middle-class Cuban movement to the suburban parts of the 20th.)

Much more over the flip…

If you were to look at the drop in white population in terms of raw numbers, though, you’d get a very different impression. The 10 districts that had the biggest drops are predominantly the Rust Belt white-majority urban districts that were on the list of overall biggest population losses, starting with MI-12 (from 540,548 whites to 458,036), followed by PA-14, OH-10, NJ-09, IN-07, IL-03, GA-13, TN-09, PA-01, and CA-13. GA-13 is the exception here, where there’s some outright white flight going on in a fast-growing district, as Atlanta’s southern exurbs turn into black-majority terrain.

Now let’s take a look at the districts with the biggest white gain, in percentage terms (this time in more abbreviated form):

District	Rep.	2000 white	2000 total	2000 %	2008 white	2008 total	2008 %	% Change
NY-15	Rangel (D)	106,664	654,355	16.3	147,570	671,752	22.0	5.7
NY-11	Clarke (D)	140,595	654,134	21.5	175,014	663,042	26.4	4.9
IL-07	D. Davis (D)	178,144	653,521	27.3	195,024	629,923	31.0	3.7
GA-05	Lewis (D)	216,674	629,438	34.4	257,072	676,513	38.0	3.6
NY-12	Velazquez (D)	150,673	653,346	23.1	180,824	681,862	26.5	3.5
HI-02	Hirono (D)	168,999	640,927	27.9	202,657	647,661	31.3	3.4
NY-10	Towns (D)	106,746	655,668	16.3	135,213	697,685	19.4	3.1
NY-14	Maloney (D)	432,312	654,165	66.1	451,277	654,566	68.9	2.9
CA-29	Schiff (D)	248,857	638,899	39.0	273,625	655,941	41.7	2.8
MI-14	Conyers (D)	213,120	662,468	32.2	206,024	591,652	34.8	2.7

While you might initially expect to see exurbs on this list, they aren’t, by percentage terms, getting whiter (quite the contrary, in most places). Instead, this list mostly shows the effects of regentrification in already-expensive cities, especially in the close-in parts of New York’s outer boroughs. The only exceptions here are HI-02, which seems to be seeing more white retirees, and MI-14, which no one would accuse of regentrifying right now, but where apparently the white suburban portions aren’t depopulating as fast as Detroit proper. (Wondering who’s #11? The district I would have expected to be at #1: LA-02, which experienced some rather abrupt regentrification of its own.)

Also worth noting: contrary to what one might expect, these whitening districts aren’t become less liberal. They all saw an improvement from Gore’s 2000 numbers to Obama’s 2008 numbers (despite the fact that their 2000 numbers, in most districts, were already up in the 80s), mostly because of increased minority turnout in 2008, but also because the early waves of gentrifiers are people who are already quite disposed toward voting Democratic.

Instead, you see the fast-growing exurbs if you look at the districts with the largest white population gain by raw numbers. Not coincidentally, this list heavily overlaps with the list of the biggest overall gainers we looked at in my previous post: AZ-02 (which went from 502,961 whites to 692,633), AZ-06, FL-05, UT-03, ID-01, CO-06, NC-09, NV-03, GA-09, and TX-26. The biggest overall gainers that aren’t on this list are TX-10, which has seen mostly Hispanic growth, and GA-07, which is seeing a lot of African-American growth.

In fact, that’s a good transition point to the districts that had the largest African-American growth, in percentage terms:

District	Rep.	2000 black	2000 total	2000 %	2008 black	2008 total	2008 %	% Change
GA-13	D. Scott (D)	255,455	629,403	40.6	419,235	785,643	53.4	12.8
GA-07	Linder (R)	72,962	630,511	11.6	188,302	901,363	20.9	9.3
MI-12	Levin (D)	77,403	662,559	11.7	117,172	621,619	18.8	7.2
IL-02	J. Jackson (D)	403,522	654,078	61.7	427,990	630,933	67.8	6.1
MD-02	Ruppersberger (D)	178,860	661,945	27.0	228,632	699,352	32.7	5.7
MD-05	Hoyer (D)	198,420	662,203	30.0	263,487	741,163	35.6	5.6
FL-19	Wexler (D)	37,821	638,503	5.9	81,258	733,322	11.1	5.2
MI-11	McCotter (R)	23,456	662,505	3.5	63,666	737,189	8.6	5.1
MO-01	Clay (D)	307,715	621,497	49.5	323,769	594,535	54.5	4.9
GA-03	Westmoreland (R)	119,766	630,052	19.0	189,706	795,402	23.9	4.8

The main story here seems to be African-Americans moving out of the cities and into the suburbs. It’s most pronounced in the Atlanta area, where, interestingly, Atlanta itself is becoming whiter (see GA-05 above), while much of the suburban growth is driven by African-Americans. It’s also quite noticeable in the Detroit area, where there’s a lot of fleeing Detroit’s economic ruins across the city lines into the adjacent 11th and 12th.

The list isn’t much different if you go purely by African-American numeric gains. The big gainers are: GA-13, GA-07, GA-03, MD-05, NC-09, MD-02, TX-22, TX-10, GA-11, and FL-19. The exceptions tend to be growth engines like NC-09 and TX-10 where a lot of everybody is moving there.

Now let’s look at the districts with the largest decrease in African-American population, percentagewise:

District	Rep.	2000 black	2000 total	2000 %	2008 black	2008 total	2008 %	% Change
IL-07	D. Davis (D)	402,714	653,521	61.6	334,138	629,923	53.0	-8.6
CA-09	Lee (D)	164,903	639,426	25.8	125,043	623,814	20.0	-5.7
CA-35	Waters (D)	216,467	638,851	33.9	187,110	664,849	28.1	-5.7
LA-02	Cao (R)	407,138	639,048	63.7	273,006	469,262	58.2	-5.5
GA-05	Lewis (D)	350,940	629,438	55.8	342,289	676,513	50.6	-5.2
NY-11	Clarke (D)	379,017	654,134	57.9	358,753	663,042	54.1	-3.8
NY-15	Rangel (D)	198,915	654,355	30.4	183,251	671,752	27.3	-3.1
IL-01	Rush (D)	424,430	654,203	64.9	383,734	620,843	61.8	-3.1
MD-04	Edwards (D)	374,755	661,651	56.6	364,985	679,854	53.7	-3.0
CA-33	Watson (D)	189,855	638,655	29.7	175,150	651,169	26.9	-2.8

This list, not so different from the list of white-gaining regentrifiying districts. There are also some districts where Hispanics are replacing blacks (CA-09, CA-35, and maybe counterintuitively, MD-04).

In terms of raw numbers, the biggest African-American drop in population is, no surprise, LA-02 (from 407,138 to 273,006), followed by IL-07, MI-13, MI-14, PA-02, IL-01, CA-09, CA-35, OH-11, and NY-11. (This includes districts like MI-13 and OH-11 where everyone of all races is leaving, at an equal rate.)

Now let’s turn to the largest percentage increases in Asian populations:

District	Rep.	2000 white	2000 total	2000 %	2008 white	2008 total	2008 %	% Change
CA-15	Honda (D)	187,198	639,090	29.3	244,744	671,729	36.4	7.1
CA-13	Stark (D)	179,681	638,708	28.1	226,018	647,397	34.9	6.8
NY-06	Meeks (D)	60,954	654,946	9.3	101,454	686,631	14.8	5.5
NY-05	Ackerman (D)	159,491	654,253	24.4	198,345	669,591	29.6	5.2
CA-14	Eshoo (D)	102,430	639,953	16.0	138,389	653,246	21.2	5.2
CA-11	McNerney (D)	55,895	639,625	8.7	109,743	802,588	13.7	4.9
CA-48	Campbell (R)	80,095	638,848	12.5	121,002	721,557	16.8	4.2
VA-10	Wolf (R)	41,846	643,714	6.5	85,787	805,507	10.7	4.1
NJ-07	Lance (R)	52,965	647,269	8.2	83,234	682,187	12.2	4.0
TX-22	Olson (R)	50,459	651,657	7.7	102,261	873,878	11.7	4.0

There are two separate categories here: Democratic areas in the Bay Area (including CA-13, which between 2000 and 2008 moved from a white plurality to an Asian plurality) and Queens, and traditionally Republican districts in affluent suburbs — all of which, except for NJ-07, experienced a significant fall-off in Republican numbers in 2008.

In terms of biggest gains by the raw numbers, the biggest Asian gains were in CA-15 (a gain of 57,000), CA-11, TX-22, CA-13, VA-10, TX-03, WA-08, NV-03, CA-48, and GA-07. TX-03, NV-03, and GA-07 are all high on the list of districts with the greatest white losses by percentage, and while WA-08 is still pretty white, it’s a district that’s nevertheless trending in our direction as well.

There are very few districts that are losing Asian populations, either in percentage or raw numbers, so it doesn’t really merit another table. The biggest losers by percentage are HI-01 (-3.7%, from 53.5 to 49.8 — with the replacements pretty evenly distributed among whites, Hispanics, and “two or more races,” which is a huge category in Hawaii compared with the rest of the nation), HI-02, MN-05, TX-09, GA-04, WA-07, CA-18, TX-29, and LA-03. The biggest losers by raw numbers are MN-05 (31,780 to 23,662, presumably indicating Minneapolis’s large Hmong population moving out to the suburbs), HI-01, HI-02, GA-04, TX-09, WA-07, LA-03, TX-29, TX-11, and MI-13.

Finally, let’s look at the districts with the biggest percentage-wise gains among Hispanics:

District	Rep.	2000 white	2000 total	2000 %	2008 white	2008 total	2008 %	% Change
IL-03	Lipinski (D)	139,268	653,292	21.3	228,215	684,703	33.3	12.0
CA-25	McKeon (R)	174,193	638,768	27.3	308,659	819,973	37.6	10.4
TX-32	Sessions (R)	235,626	650,555	36.2	306,290	669,328	45.8	9.5
CA-41	Lewis (R)	150,076	639,935	23.5	250,428	760,575	32.9	9.5
TX-29	G. Green (D)	430,890	651,405	66.2	518,208	686,198	75.5	9.4
CA-22	McCarthy (R)	133,571	638,514	20.9	231,717	768,635	30.1	9.2
TX-05	Hensarling (R)	83,113	651,919	12.7	157,312	733,117	21.5	8.7
AZ-04	Pastor (D)	372,365	641,430	58.1	502,458	753,506	66.7	8.6
FL-20	Wasserman-Schultz (D)	132,575	639,795	20.7	196,465	672,717	29.2	8.5
CA-52	Hunter (R)	88,273	639,329	13.8	144,579	663,810	21.8	8.0

As you can see, there are some solidly Democratic districts on this list — although some of them have Anglo Representatives who may have to be on their toes for a primary (though IL-03’s Dan Lipinski, targeted by the netroots in 2008, is pretty well machine-protected, and Gene Green sits in TX-29, the district with the lowest turnout in the nation). The rest are Republican-held, and while some have moved sharply in the Democratic direction in the most recent cycle (CA-25, TX-32), others have had only lackluster movement (TX-05 and CA-41). My best guess as to this disparity is that in CA-25 and TX-32, white people seem to be actively leaving, draining the pool of Republican voters, while CA-41 is seeing growth across the boards. Also, bear in mind that Hispanic growth is a slow-moving tidal wave, one that will take a long time to bear fruit (as many are either too young to vote or on the path to citizenship), so it seems likely that, say, Pete Sessions will survive till the next round of redistricting, when he can probably get his hands on a nice safer district with a center of gravity outside of Dallas proper, up in Collin County.

The biggest districts for Hispanic growth in raw numbers tend to be the big, fast-growing suburban/exurban districts with the biggest overall growth, starting with the Cuban-majority FL-25 (398,986 to 565,866). It’s followed by CA-45, AZ-07, CA-25, TX-10, AZ-04, TX-28, CA-44, AZ-02, and NV-03.

Even more so than with Asians, very few districts have experienced any Hispanic losses, either in terms of population or raw numbers. 11 districts had a loss in percentage, and 11 had a loss in actual population (although, interestingly, they aren’t entirely the same 11, as, for instance, in shrinking districts, Hispanics may have lost population at a slower rate than the population at large). The losers in terms of percentage are NY-12 (-3.5%, from 48.7 to 45.2, thanks largely to white regentrification of areas like Williamsburg), NY-15, IL-04, CA-31, CA-08, NY-14, CA-29, NY-08, NY-10, OH-06, and GA-02. The losers in terms of raw numbers are IL-04 (486,839 to 442,423, again indicative of regentrification, as well as a lot of moves either to IL-03 or to DuPage and Kane Counties), CA-31, NY-15, NY-12, NY-14, CA-53, OH-11, OH-06, CA-08, MI-05, and GA-02.

Whew! That’s a lot of data to digest, of course. But the takeaway is clear across the boards: districts where white populations are shrinking and/or minority populations are growing, are mostly seeing Democratic gains. Districts where white populations are growing and/or minority populations are shrinking, on the other hand, still managed to see Democratic gains in 2008. The districts where Republicans actually gained ground in 2008 are mostly in areas where there isn’t much population growth and isn’t much change in the racial composition (mostly rural areas, especially following the line of the Appalachians and Ozarks, but you could also say that same thing about, say, western Pennsylvania or Long Island).