Tag: Maryland

My last diary attempted to draw an effective 8-0 map of Maryland. This ran into problems, because my idea of drawing MD-01 across the Chesapeake from the Eastern Shore to St. Mary’s county left Steny Hoyer without a clear district to run in. In light of that, I have played around some more with the map of Maryland, and this is the best way I have come up with to guarantee Hoyer a district while drawing 8 democratic districts:

In the west the pattern is similar to my last plan. Chris Van Hollen’s MD-08 takes in the panhandle and becomes 61%O/38%M. MD-06 now stretches down into Montgomery County and is now 60%O/38%M. MD-05 is a district drawn for Steny Hoyer. It’s basically his ideal district, composing Southern Maryland, Eastern PG Co, and part of Anne Arundel County. It is 61%O/38%M, and should be safe for Hoyer. MD-04 stretches out of PG Co to take up the part Anne Arundel that isn’t in MD-05 (except for two precincts that are in the 2nd). It is just barely majority-black (51%B/38%W), but safely democratic at 73%O/25%M. The 1st district composes Frank Kratovil’s base in the Eastern Shore, Aberdeen Proving Ground in Harford Co, some parts of SE Baltimore county, and some heavily Democratic areas in Baltimore city. The district as a whole is 50%O/49%M. That is much more democratic than the previous district, but still Republican leaning on a national level. I believe, however, that this would be even better for Kratovil than the district I drew for him in my last diary. Most of the voters in this district’s section of Baltimore county are conservative Reagan Democrats who vote Republican on a national level but still elect conservative Democrats at a local level. These voters should be generally friendly to a conservative Democrat like Kratovil. In addition, these conservative Democrats would help make act as a buffer against an unelectable liberal democrat winning the primary. Between them, the Democrats in Baltimore city, and the Eastern Shore voters who have typically been Kratovil’s base, I think Kratovil should not have trouble winning this district. The 7th stretches up along the 95-or along I-95, as some east coast people say (see the old diary for those who don’t get the reference). It takes in many conservative areas, but is still 51%B/43%W and 68%O/31%M. The 3rd composes most of the close-in suburbs of Baltimore and is even safer D than before (63%O/35%M). The 2nd takes in the northern part of Baltimore county, some rural areas, much of Howard county, and some DC suburbs in PG and MontCo. The partisanship is the same as it is now, 59%D/39%R.

The big problem with this district is not political but regional. In this map, the PG+Montgomery areas of the 2nd district composed around 300K of the district’s 700k people. The areas outside of PG, Montgomery, and Howard counties only total 200K of the district’s population. This means that a majority of the Democratic primary in that district would probably be DC area voters instead of Baltimore area voters, because the areas in PG and Montgomery are much more Democratic than the other areas and because turnout rates are higher in Democratic primaries in PG Co and Mont Co as the Democratic primaries there are effectively the general election. I don’t know whether or not Ruppersburger would face a primary challenge (he could move to Columbia, which would put him in the center of the district and would probably be a good idea anyway given that these districts are going to have to be drawn somewhat differently from the above map due to population shifts to that area), but I know that the Baltimore area state legislators would not be happy with losing the influence of one congressman, especially since Andy Harris who lives in the Baltimore area would be gone as well. With that in mind, I drew another map of the state that preserves Baltimore’s influence in Congress, however with less clean lines overall.

This map draws MD-03 down into PG county a little and gives MD-02 some majority-black areas of Baltimore county. This has the effect of making both districts a little closer to each other in partisanship (MD-02 is 61%O/37%M and MD-03 is 62%O/36%M), and it allows the Baltimore area to dominate both districts. None of the other districts are changed. This map has many advantages, but it definitely looks more gerrymandered than the first one.

Four more states were released this week; again, we pick out the population by CD to see the relative standings of each district.

Sorry about the corny title. I felt that after the infamous Delaymander of Texas, this needed a similar name, and Steny Hoyer’s name didn’t lend itself to this as much as Chris Van Hollen’s name did. Anyway, this map attempts to defeat Andy Harris and Roscoe Bartlett while keeping all Democratic incumbents safe. And as an added bonus, it draws a new majority-minority district, just for the hell of it. Overall, this map is probably even cleaner looking than the current map of MD (which was always unnecessarily ugly, IMO). The only really ugly looking district is the 3rd, and even that looks better than it did before.

DC Area:

Baltimore:

Starting in the west, the panhandle is now in MD-08. In most of this area, the I-270 serves as the barrier between MD-08 and MD-06, with the area SW of the 270 in the 8th and the area NE of the 270 in MD-06. The 8th is 61%O/38%M and the 6th is 62%O/37%M. Van Hollen should be safe, and Bartlett is toast. MD-05 is the new majority-minority district. The racial stats are 49%W/28%B/15%H/7%A. I actually wasn’t intending to do this, but it just so happened that when I drew MD-05 it turned out 51% white, so I decided to tinker with the borders a little to make it majority-minority. The citizen voting age population is probably still majority-white, but that doesn’t really matter as this wasn’t required anyway. MD-04 takes in Calvert and some GOP parts of Anne Arundel Co. It is 39%W/53%B and 75%O/24%M. The 1st loses all its territory in the Baltimore suburbs and now crosses the water in the south into St. Mary’s, Charles, and a tiny part of PG Co. It is now 50%O/48%M, which would be slightly Republican leaning nationally but should be easy for Kratovil to win, especially now that Andy Harris is drawn out of the district. Interestingly, the PG Co parts of the district make up a tiny 33K people, or 5% of the total population of the district, however without these areas the district goes from 50/48 Obama to 47/51 McCain.

In the Baltimore area, the 2nd and 3rd districts have lost their spagetti-like shape and become much more compact. The 2nd district contains Harford and most of northern Baltimore counties as well as the northern part of Baltimore city. The district is 58%O/40%M, which is slightly less than the previous total of 59%O/39%M, but not significantly enough to affect this district much. The 3rd is now a crescent shaped district that stretches around from John Sarbanes’s home in Towson around Baltimore, Howard, and Anne Arundel counties as well as some liberal white areas of Baltimore around the Inner Harbor and Fells Point. It is now 59%O/39%M, which like the 2nd is slightly less than the 60%O/38%M it was before but not significantly. The 7th composes most of the majority black areas of Baltimore, however it stretches out to grab up Republican areas in Baltimore county from the surrounding districts. It is 42%W/52%B and 70%O/28%M.

I guess this map isn’t technically an 8-0 map, as the 1st still has a slight Republican lean. That could easily be gotten rid of by messing with the borders between the 4th and the 1st some more, however I decided that wasn’t necessary and it would require making the map look a little uglier. This 1st contains Kratovil’s base in the Eastern Shore, where he always did very well, but not the Baltimore suburbs that he consistently lost. I guess it’s theoretically possible that the GOP could pick up the 2nd or 3rd in an open-seat situation (maybe), however I really, really doubt they have much more of a chance than they do under the current map.

Now that it’s 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in the coming weeks and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and it’s time to look at Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, and Maryland.

Previous diary on Alabama, Arizona, and Arkansas

Previous diary on California, Colorado, and Connecticut

Previous diary on Florida, Georgia, and Hawaii

Previous diary on Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa

The rest below the fold…

Kansas

Districts: 4

Who’s in charge? Republicans

Is that important? Nope

With an all-Republican delegation, GOP mapmakers may simply try to ensure that Kevin Yoder avoids a close race in the next decade.

Kentucky

Districts: 6

Who’s in charge? Split (Dem Governor and House, GOP Senate)

Is that important? Perhaps

I have heard rumors that Republicans hope to stall the redistricting process past the 2011 state elections, expecting to topple both Gov. Beshear and the Democratic House majority this November. But assuming a continuation of the status quo, Ben Chandler should get a slightly more favorable district than the one he nearly lost in 2010.

Louisiana

Districts: 6, down from 7 in 2002

Who’s in charge? Split (GOP Governor and House, Dem Senate)

Is that important? Not really

The outcome of reapportionment in Louisiana has scarcely been in doubt since Jeff Landry was elected last November. He will be forced against fellow Republican Rep. Charles Boustany in a coastal district. Meanwhile, Cedric Richmond’s VRA-protected seat will have to absorb a lot of new population near Baton Rouge, and Rodney Alexander’s underpopulated northern seat will expand southwest a bit.

Maine

Districts: 2

Who’s in charge? Nonpartisan commission

Is that important? No

Maine does not even traditionally redraw its maps before the election year ending in 2. Sometime in 2013, the commission will make some boundary adjustments, and both Mike Michaud and Chellie Pingree should remain reasonably secure should they still be in office two years from now.

Maryland

Districts: 8

Who’s in charge? Democrats

Is that important? Perhaps

The question here is how aggressive Democrats perceive they can afford to be. They already constructed a master gerrymander in 2002, moving the delegation from a 4-4 split to a thoroughly safe 6-2 Democratic edge. Now, some are pushing for a 7-1 map that remakes Andy Harris’s Eastern Shore seat for a moderate Dem like Frank Kratovil. However, such a map presents serious issues: how to maintain VRA-mandated black majorities in the 4th (represented by Donna Edwards) and 7th (Elijah Cummings)? How to keep the four other Dem incumbents completely safe? With today’s redistricting technology, it can probably be done, but the 1st cannot be made securely Dem lest other districts be jeopardized…only politically competitive enough for Kratovil to stage a comeback.

This is the final installment in a four-part series about the 2010 Democratic Primary for States’ Attorney for Baltimore City in Maryland.

Why is this race notable? Well, the result, an upset win by challenger Gregg Bernstein over incumbent States’ Attorney Patricia Jessamy, challenged a lot of widely-held assumptions about racial dynamics in large cities and how one can win elections in the City of Baltimore and perhaps other similar jurisdictions.

Not to rehash the introduction, but since it’s been a while now… Jessamy had been pretty popular among the Black majority in Baltimore but was strongly disliked by the law enforcement community and had a feud with then-Mayor Martin O’Malley about police tactics. She was re-elected in 2006 with 71.52% of the vote against an largely unknown opponent in the Democratic primary named Aaron Fogleman who ran a minimal campaign. Fogleman nonetheless won nearly half of the White vote, and about 15% of the Black vote.  

So not many people gave Gregg Bernstein much of a chance when the campaign got off to a slow start in the spring, but the skeptics, myself included, were proven wrong…  

For a broad overview of what’s going on here, check out Part 1. For a summary of the methodology I used and what I looked for, check out Part 2. For a whole bunch of data about Baltimore elections and my attempt to put them in the context of what I expected to see when I looked at the election that was the subject of this series, check out Part 3.  

To refresh your memory, I classified Baltimore’s voting precincts (based on data from Dave’s App, which unfortunately is out of date b/c the city did a lot of precinct consolidation between 2000 and 2006) into six categories and twenty zones:

By Category:

Type I: Red on the map. More than 70% White, less than 5% Hispanic and Asian population. Mostly found on the periphery of town. The Federal Hill, Mt. Washington, Roland Park, and Hampden areas consisted mostly of such precincts.

2006: Jessamy 7311 (51%), Fogleman 6932 (49%)

2010: Bernstein 10127 (79%), Jessamy 2447 (19%), Lansey 290 (2%)

Type II: Green on the map. More than 5% Hispanic. (Most of these were predominantly white, but two were otherwise predominantly black.) The lion’s share of these precincts were in Fells Point, Canton, or Highlandtown.

2006: Jessamy 1649 (50%), Fogleman 1630 (50%)

2010: Bernstein 2290 (77%), Jessamy 595 (20%), Lansey (3%)

Type III: Yellow on the map. More than 5% Asian. (Most of these were predominantly white, but two were otherwise predominantly black.) Most of these precincts were found in Downtown/Midtown or Charles Village, with a few that marginally qualified in Hampden.

2006: Jessamy 2331 (55%), Fogleman 1871 (45%)

2010: Bernstein 2994 (75%), Jessamy 898 (23%), Lansey 76 (2%)

Type IV: Gray on the map. None the above, but with more Whites than Blacks. They were scattered across town, with a cluster of them is in Northeast Baltimore.

2006: Jessamy 1706 (64%), Fogleman 976 (36%)

2010: Bernstein 1287 (58%), Jessamy 851 (38%), Lansey 91 (4%)

Type V: Teal Blue on the map. None of the above, more Blacks than Whites but Black population less than 70%. They are also scattered across town, and Northeast Baltimore has a cluster of them.

2006: Jessamy 3438 (71%), Fogleman 1386 (29%)

2010: Bernstein 1848 (48%), Jessamy 1837 (48%), Lansey 139 (4%)

Type VI: Blue on the map. More than 70% Black, less than 5% Hispanic and Asian. The West Baltimore, East Baltimore, and Forest Park/Arlington zones consist exclusively of such precincts; the Near West Baltimore, Frankford, Govans/Northwood, Waverly/Montebello, and Park Heights zones consist mostly of such precincts.    

2006: Jessamy 33413 (83%), Fogleman 6841 (17%)

2010: Jessamy 19200 (66%), Bernstein 8760 (30%), Lansey 1324 (5%)

By Neighborhood:

[Note: Part 3 of this series contains more detailed descriptions of each of these clusters of neighborhoods than can be found here.]

Brooklyn/Cherry Hill [dark blue]:

2006: Jessamy 1131 (71%), Fogleman 473 (29%)

2010: Jessamy 705 (49%), Bernstein 633 (44%), Lansey 104 (7%)

Traditionally working class and racially mixed south Baltimore sums up Pat Jessamy’s whole problem in this re-election, even though she retained a bigger share of her 2006 vote total here than in the city as a whole. It was also the best-performing region for little-discussed third candidate Cheryl Lansey, also an African-American female, accused of being a spoiler candidate by Jessamy supporters.  

Federal Hill/Locust Point [dark green]:

2006: Fogleman 1013 (55%), Jessamy 823 (45%)

2010: Bernstein 1759 (86%), Jessamy 231 (11%), Lansey 58 (3%)

The whitest and generally most Republican-voting part of town (in 2006, Ehrlich topped 40% here while Steele topped 35%; in 2008, McCain fell just short of 35%, all very high for Baltimore) had already thought so little of Pat Jessamy that they voted for someone who barely campaigned over her in 2006. Bernstein swept all 10 of it’s precincts; one precinct, 24-02, gave the incumbent 4 votes of 90, her worst showing in the entire city. In context these numbers are unsurprising. But 11% is really low, and, even worse for Jessamy, this was one of only three zones to have a higher vote total in the 2010 primary than in the 2006 one.

Southwest Baltimore [purple]:

2006: Jessamy 637 (54%), Fogleman 542 (46%)

2010: Bernstein 793 (70%), Jessamy 298 (26%), Lansey 47 (4%)

This area is another part of town that tells the story in miniature. Jessamy went from carrying six of its nine precincts to carrying only one, and even in that one (20-11) she went from 62% of the vote to 46%. The big thumbs down came from precinct 25-04, one of only five precincts to be carried by John McCain.    

Edmondson [red]:

2006: Jessamy 2840 (80%), Fogleman 691 (20%)

2010: Jessamy 1668 (61%), Bernstein 963 (35%), Lansey 96 (4%)

And here’s where we learn that it was a multi-racial coalition that brought down Pat Jessamy.

Jessamy carried every precinct here but except for 28-15…but these areas supported black candidates over white ones big time (84% for Obama in his ’08 primary, 81% for Mfume in his ’06 Senate primary) in every previous election I looked at. While some of these precincts actually have sizable a sizable white minority, the ones further away from the county line don’t, and Bernstein was still getting in the 30% range in most such precincts, and that’s worth noting.

West Baltimore [mustard yellow]:

2006: Jessamy 5364 (85%), Fogleman 944 (15%)

2010: Jessamy 3056 (69%), Bernstein 1112 (25%), Lansey 241 (5%)

This one is partially about the ability of Bernstein to get at least some measure of the vote even in an area like this one (and this was his worst showing in town) where nearly everyone is both black and poor and suspicion of law enforcement tends to run high. But it’s mostly about the lack of turnout. Bernstein got 200 more votes than Fogleman did, which isn’t much; the real story is Pat Jessamy coming out of this area with a net loss of nearly 2,300 votes. That hurts.

Near West Baltimore [teal blue]:

2006: Jessamy 2539 (80%), Fogleman 641 (20%)

2010: Jessamy 1551 (64%), Bernstein 750 (31%), Lansey 116 (5%)

Same as above, but shifted five points since there are some urban gentrifiers here. I wondered if their effect would an amplification of a shift away from Jessamy. It did not.  

Downtown & Midtown [gray]:

2006: Jessamy 1107 (56%), Fogleman 874 (44%)

2010: Bernstein 1297 (60%), Jessamy (36%), Lansey 75 (3%)

I wonder if the demographics of this area may have shifted some in four years as it covers the booming Harbor East district. Either way, it went from a set of precincts that ranged between being indifferent towards and relatively friendly towards the incumbent turned hostile. In 2006 Jessamy carried 13 of these 15 precincts, tying in another, and losing one (11-05) by two votes. This time, Bernstein carried 11 of them. Even worse for Jessamy, this was the other area that cast substantially more votes in the 2010 primary than the one four years earlier, which possibly reflects the revitalization of central Baltimore vis-a-vis the rest of the city. (Interesting side note: Bernstein’s people were all over Baltimore Pride events this summer; Bernstein cleaned up in four precincts with large gay populations in Mt. Vernon and Bolton Hill that were some of Jessamy’s best predominantly white precincts in 2006.)  

East Baltimore [gray-blue]:

2006: Jessamy 3822 (85%), Fogleman 666 (15%)

2010: Jessamy 2224 (69%), Bernstein 859 (27%), Lansey 157 (5%)

See West Baltimore above. Proportions are almost exactly the same. The presence of Johns Hopkins Medical School is probably the main difference.  

Fells Point & Canton [aqua]:

2006: Fogleman 1219 (56%), Jessamy 953 (44%)

2010: Bernstein 1726 (83%), Jessamy 306 (15%), Lansey 58 (3%)

Much like Federal Hill, except with a larger Hispanic population and somewhat more liberal political outlook as a whole (it’s around 4-5 points more liberal and more Democratic than Fed Hill, Obama overperformed a little as well.) However, it had giving Jessamy her worst showing in 2006. And it was the site of the infamous Zach Sowers beating a few years back, in which Jessamy’s spokeswoman was berated for insensitivity to the family and community, so Jessamy had to know she was going to get crushed here.

Highlandtown [magenta]:

2006: Fogleman 970 (52%), Jessamy 895 (48%)

2010: Bernstein 1241 (80%), Jessamy 247 (16%), Lansey 56 (4%)

This southeastern part of town has more of a working class flavor than touristy Fells Point and yuppie haven Canton. Much like the East Side of Baltimore County (Dundalk, Essex) it borders, it’s got a reputation for Reagan Democrats none too fond of voting for black candidates. It’s where Barack Obama had his worst showing in town (Hillary Clinton got 57% of the primary vote, nearly 15 points more than any in other part of the city; John McCain got 37% of the general election vote, his best showing in the city) in 2008. Just to confuse everyone though, Pat Jessamy did carry the area in 2006, albeit barely. In 2010, Highlandtown was not Pat Jessamy’s worst area…but it was plenty bad enough at an even 16%.  

Frankford [lime green]:

2006: Jessamy 3076 (81%), Fogleman 738 (19%)

2010: Jessamy 1753 (59%), Bernstein 1059 (36%), Lansey 169 (6%)

Predominantly black (middle-class black specifically) but not monolithic, Jessamy lost 22 points and 1,300 votes here. A decent chunk of voters took the third option with Cheryl Lansey here, and in this area she was stronger where Jessamy was also strong as opposed to where Bernstein was strong, suggesting that the spoiler factor may have been key. Jessamy won 13 of the 15 precincts here, but mostly with numbers in the 50s and 60s rather than the 70s and 80s she got last time around.    

Northeast Baltimore [light blue]:

2006: Jessamy 3467 (61%), Fogleman 2172 (39%)

2010: Bernstein 2806 (60%), Jessamy 1701 (35%), Lansey 160 (3%)

Here’s one battleground where the Bernstein campaign did some heavy lifting, the area’s voting patterns doing a near-perfect 180 degree turn. Jessamy carried 18 of 22 precincts in her 2006 re-election, and Bernstein flipped all but two of them this time out for 20 of 22. There are more whites than blacks here, but neither Mfume (51% in his Senate primary) nor Obama (71% primary, 79% general) had that much trouble getting votes in this part of town; if I had to credit one part of town with being the tipping point, I’d probably cite this one as the most pivotal.

Govans/Northwood [peach]:

2006: Jessamy 5137 (82%), Fogleman 1124 (18%)

2010: Jessamy 2695 (62%), Bernstein 1524 (35%), Lansey 147 (3%)

This is where Pat Jessamy lives. Ouch. If she had gotten everyone in her own neighborhood who voted for her in 2006 to do so again, she would have squeaked by. Instead, she lost 400 votes to the white challenger, 147 votes to a random black challenger, and 1895 votes – enough by itself to put her over the top – to non-turnout. (Some people might have moved away; we’ll learn more when the new Census data emerges.) This was, incidentally, the second biggest turnout drop in the city after Park Heights; my postulate about middle-class black areas like this one holding turnout better between elections than poor areas turns out not to have held, at least in Baltimore.  

Waverly/Montebello [olive]:

2006: Jessamy 2547 (81%), Fogleman 590 (19%)

2010: Jessamy 1465 (60%), Bernstein 843 (35%), Lansey 114 (5%)

There are 12 precincts in this zone. Jessamy carried all of them both times. But instead of racking up numbers between 73-88%, they ranged from 51-70% instead. Couple that with the dropped turnout, and it spelled trouble for the incumbent as well as evidencing the fact that it wasn’t just a matter of Bernstein racking up the big numbers in white parts of town.

Roland Park, Guilford & Homeland [orange]:

2006: Jessamy 2005 (52%), Fogleman 1880 (48%)

2010: Bernstein 3082 (85%), Jessamy 534 (15%), Lansey 25 (1%)

In addition to being the wealthiest part of Baltimore, this is Bernstein’s home turf and does it ever show. Previously somewhat less hostile to Jessamy (it’s mostly liberals, and there’s just not much crime up there to complain about) than other white parts of town..one of their own put up huge numbers. (If Northwood had done for Jessamy what Roland Park did for Bernstein, Bernstein would have lost.) Bernstein’s 37 point improvement on Fogleman in this zone put him over the top.  

Charles Village [light green]:

2006: Jessamy 1000 (64%), Fogleman 554 (36%)

2010: Bernstein 873 (63%), Jessamy 462 (34%) Lansey 44 (3%)

The other big 180 reversal. It’s relatively integrated and chock full of liberals of all colors (they liked Mfume and loved Obama..but black Republican Michael Steele saw perhaps his worst numbers in the entire state there) that match the brightly colored houses that famously line some of its blocks. Jessamy won a comfortable 63% of the vote there last time.  

What happened here? Well, early this summer, an unarmed Hopkins graduate student was murdered in a robbery in broad daylight on a Charles Village street thought to be reasonably safe by a guy with a rap sheet a mile long. And people were pissed. Jessamy went to a community memorial for the student and got, to put it mildly, a very chilly reception. It was perhaps the flashpoint of the election.

Hampden [indigo]:

2006: Fogleman 937 (56%), Jessamy 733 (44%)

2010: Bernstein 1460 (87%), Jessamy 200 (12%), Lansey 21 (1%)

Bernstein did even better here than in neighboring Roland Park, not that he needed to do much to convince Hampdenites to not vote for Jessamy. The area has fewer blacks per capita than anywhere else in town and has long had a reputation for hostility towards black politicians (and towards non-politicians as well) although the reality is now somewhat more complicated by an influx of new residents and a softening of some old attitudes. Barack Obama found more support (56% primary, 72% general) than one would expect based on the old stereotypes.

But, yeah, everybody knew going in Pat Jessamy was not going to find much support here. I might have expected more than 12% though; Jessamy only got 20% in precinct 12-03, which is quite a bit more diverse than the rest of the area. Aaron Fogleman did about that well in West Baltimore and he barely campaigned. Also: note how few votes for Lansey there were here and in other mostly white areas.

Mount Washington/Cross Country [light-yellow]:

2006: Jessamy 2616 (57%), Fogleman 1988 (43%)

2010: Bernstein 2653 (73%), Jessamy 921 (25%), Lansey 74 (2%)

Pretty dramatic turnaround here too. In 2006 Jessamy won 9 of 11 precincts. The other two are part of an three-precinct [27-64, 27-65, and 27-66] cluster consisting largely of Orthodox Jews in the city’s NW corner; in general elections, McCain won all three precincts, Ehrlich won two of them, and all three were strong for Hillary in the ’08 primary.) This time around, Jessamy only carried a single precinct, 28-01, whose demographics are quite different than the others in this zone. Bernstein cleaned up in the Orthodox zone but almost as well in the rest of Cross County and even in more liberal Mount Washington Village.    

Park Heights [yellow-green]:

2006: Jessamy 2821 (82%), Fogleman 618 (18%)

2010: Jessamy 1578 (70%), Bernstein 597 (26%), Lansey 93 (4%)

The good news for Jessamy is that she held a higher percentage of her 2006 vote here than anywhere else in the city, and it’s the only part of town where Bernstein actually failed to match Fogleman’s vote total from 2006. The bad news is that turnout in this largely struggling area dropped 34% from 2006. So Jessamy’s vote margin here was nonetheless cut in half.  

Forest Park/Arlington [pink]:

2006: Jessamy 5720 (85%), Fogleman 975 (15%)

2010: Jessamy 3459 (71%), Bernstein 1265 (26%), Lansey 156 (3%)

This biggest redoubt of black middle-class voters in the city were more loyal to Pat Jessamy than her own neighbors further east, or, indeed, than anywhere else in the city. Furthermore, unlike many largely black areas, they didn’t even give Cheryl Lansey much support. But 30% fewer Forest Park-Arlington residents turned out this time around, and that spelled nearly 2,300 votes out of this area.  

So…in the final analysis, where did all this number crunching get me? I found three things that I think mattered and three things that I think didn’t.

1. Whites voted as a bloc for Bernstein in a way that they had not done for any other candidate in any of the several races I examined for this diary. I estimate Jessamy’s 2010 level of support among Whites to be somewhere around 15%, as compared with about 50% for Jessamy in 2006, about 35% for Mfume in 2006, and about 55% for Obama in the 2008 primary. I created a mathematical model whereby Shifting just 3% of the vote in the non-Type VI precincts back to Jessamy across the board (which still leaves her support among whites down near 20%, mind you) would have been enough to get her re-elected by 87 votes.

2. The deterioration of support for Jessamy among Blacks was also a contributing factor. She lost 16 points of support in Type VI precincts. I created a model whereby Jessamy’s support in Type VI precincts was raised while everything else (including the surprisng result, even knowing my source data had some noise in it, whereby Bernstein got more votes than Jessamy in Type V precincts) constant. Even when taking into account depressed black turnout (which I’ll discuss below) in a scenario when her support in the Type VI precincts is raised from 66% to 69%, still a 13-point drop, Jessamy gets re-elected by the narrowest of margins.

3. Turnout among Black voters was an issue. If the relative share of the total vote the 20 zones had held constant from 2006, even with the 2010 candidates keeping the same proportion of votes from each zone (in other words, this time I locked in Jessamy’s dismal performance in White areas and reduced performance in Black areas) the result would be reversed, with Jessamy winning over Bernstein 49-47. (I didn’t do the math on 2008, because it became obvious to me quickly that that electorate would have chosen Jessamy over Bernstein as well.)  

And three things I didn’t find to be important in the end:

1. The Lansey-as-spoiler factor. Certainly Jessamy supporters were angry with her, before and especially after the election. It’s hard to model with any confidence. Lansey’s vote total of 2011 was less than the 1456 vote margin between Bernstein and Jessamy. I know little about Cheryl Lansey and couldn’t figure out what her agenda was, other than not liking Jessamy, so that makes it tough to read voter minds. That most of her votes came from black neighborhoods suggests that Jessamy supporters had a reason to be unhappy. However, a Bernstein supporter could argue that her presence on the ballot as a third option gave people dissatisfied with Jessamy but reluctant to support a white challenger an easy way out of their dilemma and that at least some of those voters would have opted either for Bernstein or for a blank ballot. Even without Bernstein getting a single one of the the Lansey votes, Jessamy would have needed 72.5% of those votes to win. Since that figure was above her regular numbers in all but her very best precincts, I don’t think she was the difference in the election.  

2. There wasn’t enough of a difference between precincts with significant Hispanic or Asian minorities and those without them to support any effort to distinguish them from similar precincts that happen to lack significant Hispanic or Asian minorities.

3. I didn’t find any useful class-based distinctions in the data. In Black precincts, racial makeup (i.e. whether there’s much of a non-Black minority) explained the variances in election results much better than class makeup did, as usual for Baltimore elections of this type. Though there are often sizable gaps between results in White precincts in Baltimore that speak to real or perceived class differences, those were at best very muted with regards to this election, as these different neighborhoods acted in unison this time out.

Conclusion:

It took a near-perfect storm of high dissatisfaction among Whites, at least moderate dissatisfaction among Blacks, and low Black turnout to produce this surprising upset victory.  

Cross posted on Daily kos  http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

and my blog http://frogandturtle.blogspot…. which you should visit for more redistrcting maps and election analysis.

Like in 2001, Democrats hold the trifecta in Maryland again. This means that not only do they control the Governorship, they also control both houses of the state legislature. In 2001, the congressional delegation was 4-4 but Democrats redrew the maps to make a favorable Democratic map that accomplished its goal of removing 2 of the 4 Republican representatives. After 2002, there were no party changes until 2008 when Frank Kratovli (D) ran in the 1st district which contains conservative Baltimore suburbs and the Eastern Shore. He barely won against an extremist candidate. Unfortunately for the Democrats, he lost in 2010 by 13 points. Therefore, the delegation has returned to its original 6-2 Democrats. Maryland has turned more blue though since 2002 due to more African Americans moving into Prince Georges and Charles Counties. Also, Hispanics, Asians and white liberals are moving into Montgomery County and even Frederick County. The Baltimore suburbs are actually trending Republican but that’s a different post for a different day.  

Still, with Maryland trending Democratic overall, it is now possible to construct a 7-1 Democratic map. I have even seen some 8-0 Democratic maps but some districts are too shaky and can result in a dummymander when Republicans are able to pick up 1,2 or even 3 of those seats. I chose to draw a 7-1 map because I think it is close to what the state legislature will draw. While drawing the map, I made sure the 4th and 7th districts remained majority African American because of the VRA requiring 2 African American majority districts. While drawing the map, I made sure no district except for the Republican 6th fell below 54% Obama. Also, I made sure 6 of the districts were at least 58% for Obama. This map should protect all the Democratic incumbents, one Republican incumbent and create a new district that leans Democratic. Now here is Maryland’s current map:

Maryland’s current map: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/p…

             Statewide map of Maryland

Maryland’s 1st Congressional District: Andy Harris (R) (blue)

Partisan Data: Obama 137,680 54%, McCain 113,225 44%

Demographics: 23% African American, 5% Hispanic, 68% White

Old District’s Partisan Data: McCain 58%, Obama 40%

Major Cities: Annapolis, Salisbury

Status: Likely Democratic

This district makes some major changes when I moved conservative suburbs in Harford and Anne Arundel out into other districts such as the 6th and 7th while adding in Democratic Annapolis and some neighborhoods in heavily Democratic Prince Georges County and places in Anne Arundel County such as Odenton which will become more Democratic due to in migration by African Americans. Harris’s base is in conservative Harford County which I removed. Frank Kratovli (D), the representative before 2010 of the 1st now has a great shot at retaking this district because of the new Democratic areas in the district. The district’s Democratic lean may be overstated due to high Obama turnout in Prince Georges County but as the areas in Anne Arundel keep getting more Democratic, they should offset any drop in turnout. Also, Kratovli tends to over perform in the Eastern Shore so with big margins in Prince Georges and Anne Arundel Counties, he should win here.

                                       Baltimore Area

Maryland’s 2nd Congressional District: Dutch Ruppersberger (D) (Green)

Partisan Data: Obama 155,376 58%, McCain 107,691 40%

Demographics: 24% African American, 68% White

Old District’s Partisan Data: Obama 60%, McCain 38%

Major Cities: Baltimore, Towson, Dundalk

Status: Safe Democratic

Ruppersberger’s district gets less convoluted by losing all of its Anne Arundel County portions and picking up swingy Towson which was originally in the 3rd district. Although the 2nd district retains some Republican suburbs around Edgemere, it still remains Democratic by picking up more Baltimore City neighborhoods. They also help balance out the loss of some heavily Democratic precincts in Randallstown. Ruppersberger should be fine here.

Maryland’s 3rd Congressional District: John Sarbanes (D) (Purple)

Partisan Data: Obama 164,297 62%, McCain 96,626 36%

Demographics: 26% African American, 8% Asian, 60% White

Old district’s partisan data: Obama 59%, McCain 39%

Major Cities: Randallstown, Columbia, Catonsville

Status: Safe Democratic

I am aware of the fact John Sarbanes does not live in this district but it still contains Democratic Columbia. The district undergoes some major changes though. It retains parts of Baltimore County but loses nearly all of Baltimore City and all of Anne Arundel County. It even picks up some Republican areas in southern Carroll County. Sarbanes is still safe though because his district picks up some heavily African American areas in west Baltimore County, bringing the African American population in the district from 16% to 26%. I am not sure the state legislature will support this district though because in their mind, it may need more of Sarbanes’s old district and they may not want to extend this into Montgomery County. Still, this is a safe district for Sarbanes.

                                       Washington Suburbs

Maryland’s 4th Congressional District: Donna Edwards (D) (Red)

Partisan Data: Obama 212,819 88%, McCain 27,795 11%

Demographics: 54% African American, 17% Hispanic, 6% Asian, 21% White

Old District’s Partisan Data: Obama 85%, McCain 14%

Major Cities: Fort Washington, Chillum, Silver Spring

Status: Safe Democratic

The district remains VRA protected and gets even more Democratic although Edwards was more than safe here already. The district becomes smaller and loses more moderate areas in northern Montgomery County while picking up part of Wheaton in Montgomery County. I would have extended this district out into more swingy areas in Montgomery County but the 3rd district took them for population reasons. I am not sure if the legislature will send Edwards’s district to pick up some Republican areas to help protect other incumbents or make a district similar to mine.

Maryland 5th Congressional District: Steny Hoyer (D) (yellow)

Partisan Data: Obama 176,048 66%, McCain 89,006 33%

Demographics: 36% African American, 5% Hispanic, 53% White

Old District’s Partisan Data: Obama 66% McCain 33%

Major Cities: St. Charles, Bowie

Status: Safe Democratic

Hoyer’s district remains strongly Democratic although retaining Republican St. Mary’s, Calvert and Anne Arundel Counties. The Democratic votes in Charles (which is getting even more Democratic due to migration from Prince Georges County,) and Prince Georges County more than counterbalance the Republican areas. The only changes in this district are the addition of Fairland in Montgomery County which leans Democratic and the switching around of some Prince Georges County precincts. Hoyer should be happy with his new district.

                                        West Maryland

Maryland’s 6th Congressional District: Roscoe Bartlett (D) Teal

Partisan Data: Obama 105,718 36%, McCain 183,765 62%

Demographics: 5% African American, 90% White

Old District’s Partisan Data: Obama 40% McCain 58%

Major Cities: Hagerstown, Bel Air, Cumberland

Status: Safe Republican

This district contains the fast growing red Baltimore suburbs, the D.C suburbs that lean Republican and the older communities in the Appalachian Mountains. At a first glance, it appears that the lines do not change much. Actually, they do change a bit and these changes make the district more Republican by removing most of Frederick which leans Democratic. The district loses a bit of Carroll County to the 3rd district but picks up some conservative Harford County suburbs from the old 1st district. The location affects Bartlett who lives in Frederick (which is mostly in the 8th on this map) but since the new 6th district is so similar to the old one, he will probably run there and win easily (unless Republicans try to teabag him which is possible.)

Maryland’s 7th Congressional District: Elijah Cummings (D) Gray

Partisan Data: Obama 193,995 70%, McCain 77,987 28%

Demographics: African American 50%, White 43%

Old District’s Partisan Data: Obama 79% McCain 20%

Major Cities: Baltimore, Glen Burnie, South Gate

Status: Safe Democratic

Although the 7th district still is anchored in Baltimore, it swings off in a different direction now. Instead of heading through west Balitmore County to west Howard County, the 7th district heads south into the conservative Anne Arundel County suburbs. It picks up Republican areas such as Glen Burnie which were formerly in the 1st district when it was very Republican. Although there are some precincts there that voted as high as 70% for McCain, precincts in Baltimore City that voted as high as 99% for Obama make this district heavily Democratic. The 50% African American population is a bit low for a VRA district but it should work because almost all of the Democratic primary voters are Democratic. Also, a 70% Obama district is way too high for any Republican to win, even in a good year.

Maryland’s 8th Congressional District: Chris Van Hollen (D) light purple

Partisan Data: Obama 173,125 69%, McCain 74,721 30%

Demographics: 12% African American, 14% Hispanic, 13% Asian, 59% White

Old District’s Partisan Data: Obama 74% McCain 25%

Major Cities: Bethesda, Frederick, Gaithersburg, Rockville

Status: Safe Democratic

This district gets a bit more Republican. I removed Wheaton from the district as well as the heavily Democratic small part of Prince Georges County which helped Van Hollen beat Connie Morella (R) in 2002. Also, Van Hollen’s district heads out into Republican leaning Frederick County but takes up the parts that lean Democratic such as the City of Frederick. These changes bring down the Obama percentage from 74% to 69%. Van Hollen will probably want a safer district but Montgomery County has grown much more Democratic since the 90’s when it elected Morella. Frederick County is getting more Democratic too so Van Hollen should have no problems.  

I have yet once again redone my Maryland map.  I’m using the “original” version of Dave’s Application here as I did the map a while back but just haven’t had the chance to do the write-up.

Bottom line: there’s no reason not to do an 8-0 map, knowing that the GOP will do something similar in a number of states.  Democrats still have the trifecta in Maryland (we actually picked up a few seats in the state Senate here in November, btw !)

I had several goals in mind for this map:

– VRA: Both African-American-majority districts must have black population that is at least 1.5 times the size of the white population in those districts (to ensure representation).  The map does really well in this respect.  The black population in both MD-4 and MD-7 goes down from 57% and 59%, respectively, under the existing 2002 map — to 51% and 57%, respectively, under the proposed map here.  HOWEVER, because of the way the districts are reconfigured (expanding to include a lot more GOP-leaning territory in the northern part of the state) the proportion of African-Americans as a percentage of the Democratic primary vote in both districts goes up from approximately 70% now to approximately 80% under the proposed plan.

– Incumbency: Keep at least 50% of each Democratic incumbent’s current territory (population-wise) in the new district.  The percentages that each district gets to keep are below:

MD-1 – 66%

MD-2 – 70%

MD-3 – 62%

MD-4 – 53%

MD-5 – 74%

MD-6 – 49%

MD-7 – 55%

MD-8 – 78%

As you can see, it looks pretty good.  Other than the two minority-majority districts, each Democratic incumbent would get to keep at least 62% of their constituents.  This is important in any realistic redistricting plan for Maryland.  Although their districts get to keep only 53% and 55% of their existing constituents, Donna Edwards and Elijah Cummings should still be quite happy with their new districts for the reason discussed under “VRA” above.  In the case of MD-7 it should be noted that many areas in the eastern part of Baltimore City which were previously part of the district (prior to 2002) are now “returned” back to the district. So, while Cummings does not currently represent those constituents, the areas would likely be quite receptive to having him as a representative.  (I should also note that Steny Hoyer’s new district also contains territory which he has represented prior to 2002 — accounting for another 6% of the population —  so, in effect, the proposed MD-5 here includes 80% of territory Hoyer is currently representing or has represented in the past).

– Keep different parts/regions of the state “intact”.  This includes keeping the Eastern Shore whole in one district (same goes for Southern Maryland), keeping MD-2, MD-3 and MD-7 in the Baltimore orbit, while keeping MD-4, MD-5 and MD-8 in the Washington, DC orbit.  Likewise, I wanted to keep more communities intact.  Under the map here, the only incorporated cities that are split are Baltimore City (for obvious reasons), Mount Airy (because it is already split between two counties), and Hyattsville (although now it would only be split between two districts and not three like under the existing map).

Also, wanted to minimize county fragments and ensure that each district “corresponds” to a region or county.  Listed below is the largest jurisdiction (percentage of  district’s population) that each district is comprised of (you can look up the whole break-down under each district further down):

MD-1 – 62% Eastern Shore

MD-2 – 62% Baltimore County

MD-3 – 64% Anne Arundel and Howard Counties

MD-4 – 68% Prince George’s County

MD-5 – 76% Southern Maryland and Prince George’s Co.

MD-6 – 55% Montgomery County

MD-7 – 59% Baltimore City

MD-8 – 78% Montgomery County

As you can see, Montgomery Co. (the state’s largest) would form the majority of two Congressional districts under this plan.

– Partisanship (last, but not least !): Each new district must ensure that a Democrat is elected.  The percentages are discussed below the maps:

District 1:

Current District:  Obama 40; McCain 58

Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 43

Proposed District Demographics: 68% white; 25% black

Population: Eastern Shore 62%, Prince George’s Co. 20%, Anne Arundel Co. 18%

The 56% Obama percentage here would more than ensure that Frank Kratovil could make a comeback in 2012.

District 2:  

Current District:  Obama 60; McCain 38

Proposed District:  Obama 59; McCain 39

Proposed District Demographics: 66% white; 25% black

Population: Baltimore Co. 62%, Baltimore City 22%, Harford Co. 17%

District 3:  

Current District:  Obama 59; McCain 39

Proposed District:  Obama 59; McCain 39

Proposed District Demographics: 68% white; 19% black

Population: Howard Co. 33%, Anne Arundel Co. 31%, Baltimore Co. 26%, Baltimore City 10%

District 4:

Current District:  Obama 85; McCain 14

Proposed District:  Obama 72; McCain 27

Proposed District Demographics: 51% black; 33% white; 12% Hispanic

Population: Prince George’s Co. 68%, Carroll Co. 24%, Howard Co. 6%, Montgomery Co. 2%

District 5:

Current District:  Obama 65; McCain 33

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 39

Proposed District Demographics: 59% white; 29% black

Population: Southern Maryland 47%, Prince George’s Co. 29%, Anne Arundel Co. 24%

District 6:

Current District:  Obama 40; McCain 58

Proposed District:  Obama 59; McCain 40

Proposed District Demographics: 66% white, 14% black, 10% Hispanic

Population: Montgomery Co. 55%, Frederick Co. 29%, Washington Co. 16%

District 7:  

Current District:  Obama 79; McCain 20

Proposed District:  Obama 69; McCain 30

Proposed District Demographics: 57% black; 38% white

Population: Baltimore City 59%, Baltimore Co. 24%, Harford Co. 17%

District 8:  

Current District:  Obama 74; McCain 25

Proposed District:  Obama 65; McCain 34

Proposed District Demographics: 63% white; 13% hispanic; 11% black; 11% asian

Population: Montgomery Co. 78%, Western Maryland 19%, Frederick Co. 3%

This writeup will be brief and will lack detail pictures. Dave’s app ate one of my save files for the Maryland map, and the Utah map I drew up on a public computer when I was bored.

Utah will gain one seat. Rep. Matheson, the only Democrat in the Beehive State’s congressional district, has resisted every effort to defeat him. With the Wasatch Front gobbling up so much of Utah’s voting population and Salt Lake County trending blue, I think Utah Republicans will be relieved to confine Matheson to the state’s most populous county and parcel out his redder rural and suburban territory to help create a new district. Rep. Chaffetz will probably run against Sen. Hatch in 2012, but if he doesn’t, he could run in the new UT-04, as he’s been drawn out of UT-03. It really doesn’t matter, as UT-01, UT-03, and UT-04 would probably vote for Attila the Hun as long as he could prove he was a naturalized U.S. citizen.

All of these districts but MD-06 (teal) are safe Democratic seats. I posted this map in the comments section of a now-buried diary, but I figured I’d repost it in a new diary. Rep. Kratovil can run for MD-01 (blue) from his Stevensville home in coastal Queen Anne’s County. Rep. Bartlett has been drawn out of MD-06, with the blueing city of Frederick (as well as its little cousin of Hagerstown, in Washington County) drawn into Rep. Van Hollen’s MD-08 (slate blue). Rep.-elect Harris would probably do just fine in MD-06. Just to give you an idea of exactly how Democratic this state is, MD-06 voted for Sen. McCain over Sen. Obama in 2008 by within a point of the same margin by which MD-05 (yellow) and MD-08 broke for Sen. Obama. MD-04 (red) and MD-07 (grey) are black-majority VRA districts (54% black, 22% white; and 53% black, 33% white respectively). I may have drawn Rep. Sarbanes out of MD-03 (purple), but moving across Baltimore is really not a big deal for a congressman.

I like the idea of the Wyoming Rule. Take the population of the smallest state in the Union, divide the total U.S. population by it, and allocate however many seats that comes out to be according to each state’s population. Under the Wyoming Rule, Maryland would probably end up with 11 congressional districts at the next redistricting; assuming no population growth or decline, that puts each district’s population at roughly 481,500, although for this map, I’ve given each district a margin of about ±1,500, give or take a bit.

Spoiler alert: two of these districts are safe Republican, eight are safe Democratic, and one is a super-exciting swing district!

MD-01 (safe Republican)

85% white, 11% black

59% McCain, 39% Obama

This district covers most of the Eastern Shore, as well as rural, conservative northern Harford and Baltimore counties. It effectively soaks up big areas that Democrats don’t want. Rep.-elect Andy Harris could easily hold down this seat.

MD-02 (swing, lean Democrat)

75% white, 19% black

54% Obama, 44% McCain

This district covers the eastern Baltimore suburbs and exurbs, taking in portions of southern Harford and Baltimore counties, as well as some of the eastern reaches of Baltimore City and Anne Arundel County. It snakes awkwardly down the shoreline to capture the Democratic stronghold of Annapolis. If Rep. Frank Kratovil moved across the Bay, he could probably win this district without too much trouble.

MD-03 (safe Democratic)

40% white, 54% black

81% Obama, 17% McCain

This is a VRA district that goes straight down the middle of Baltimore City and includes some northern suburbs in Baltimore County. I’m not exactly sure where Rep. Elijah Cummings’s house is, but he could definitely win here. That would probably set up a primary showdown with Rep. John Sarbanes, though, unless he moved elsewhere.

MD-04 (safe Democratic)

46% white, 48% black

71% Obama, 28% McCain

It turns out that under the Wyoming Rule, the Baltimore area actually needs two VRA districts. This is actually a coalition district, technically, with black residents making up only 48% of the district’s population by 2000 numbers. It includes western Baltimore City while soaking up some of the western and northern Baltimore County suburbs and exurbs, none of which are numerous enough to really threaten Democrats here. As with MD-03, Rep. Cummings could win here easily. Rep. Dutch Ruppersberg, who I believe lives here, could win as well.

MD-05 (safe Democratic)

69% white, 12% black

61% Obama, 37% McCain

Incorporating some of central Maryland’s swingier rural areas in Howard, Montgomery, and Frederick counties with a few Democratic bastions like the cities of Frederick and Gaithersburg, this is a fairly solid Democratic district that is almost entirely within the D.C. media market. Jennifer Dougherty, who ran against Rep. Roscoe Bartlett in 2008 and used to be Frederick’s mayor, would probably win in a walk here.

MD-06 (safe Republican)

93% white, 4% black

62% McCain, 36% Obama

This district soaks up the Panhandle, Carroll County, and most of Frederick County. It’s a community of interest, and keeping it that way avoids some unpleasantness for surrounding Democrats. If Rep. Bartlett ran for reelection here, he’d be a lock to win.

MD-07 (safe Democratic)

70% white, 20% black

59% Obama, 39% McCain

This district includes eastern Howard County and western Anne Arundel County, as well as collecting some southern Baltimore County suburbs. It went for President Obama by 20 points, so I’m calling it safe, unless anybody objects. If Rep. Sarbanes moved down here from Towson, considering this MD-07 includes most of his current district anyway, I think he could win easily.

MD-08 (safe Democratic)

63% white, 28% black

63% Obama, 36% McCain

By balancing out Republican-leaning Anne Arundel County with parts of northern and eastern Prince George’s County, one of the country’s bluest, this district should be a walk for a competent Democrat. I don’t think any of Maryland’s current representatives are likely to run here, though.

MD-09 (safe Democratic)

64% white, 11% black

72% Obama, 27% McCain

This Montgomery County district is basically just a smaller version of Rep. Chris Van Hollen’s current district, MD-08. It eschews the tendril into Prince George’s County and cedes some space to surrounding districts, but it remains strongly Democratic. Van Hollen could win here without trouble, and I think he already lives within its boundaries.

MD-10 (safe Democratic)

17% white, 64% black

93% Obama, 7% McCain

This suburban district would be one of the most strongly Democratic districts in the country even under the Wyoming Rule, including most of the majority-black and -Latino parcels of land in Prince George’s and Montgomery counties. Rep. Donna Edwards would be a natural fit for this district.

MD-11 (safe Democratic)

60% white, 34% black

65% Obama, 34% McCain

This district of remainders stretches across the Chesapeake Bay to encompass Somerset and Worcester counties on the Eastern Shore as well as Charles, St. Mary’s, and Calvert counties in southern Maryland. It also stretches up into Prince George’s County to solidify its Democratic orientation. Rep. Steny Hoyer, soon to be the House minority whip, lives here and could win here without trouble.

Your thoughts, either on the map or the Wyoming Rule (or both)?

So yeah, everyone on here likes to talk about how the West Coast and New England formed our firewall last week, but I don’t see too much mention of Maryland – we do exist, and we do kick some major ass. Therefore, I’ve decided that I’m going to write a few diaries about political trends in Maryland, past and present. There isn’t really a plan to this, I just want to provide some good info that maybe fellow SSPers can use.

The topic today is trends in the Maryland State Legislature, 1974-2010. Maryland’s current system involves 47 legislative district, each of which elects 1 Senator and 3 Delegates. The 3 delegates can be elected together, or can be elected in 1 or 2 member subdistricts. There are really no guidelines for the creation of subdistricts, so they really just represent another opportunity to gerrymander.

The current system came about in the early 1970s when Maryland’s old way of apportioning delegates was thrown out in court. Maryland has had 4 legislative maps and 10 elections under this plan.

In the first election (1974), the Democrats won close to 90% in both chambers. This made me wonder whether Maryland had ever been controlled by Republicans, so I checked the Maryland Manual. In fact, it had – back in the late 1800s the Republicans briefly held a supermajority in the legislature, as crazy as that sounds. Back then, Western Maryland was very Republican, Central Maryland (including Baltimore City) was a swing region, and the Eastern Shore and Southern MD were mostly Democratic.

I’d wager that the current era of Dem dominance came about as a result of the New Deal (and has only faced minor changes over the decades). Interestingly, back in the 70s when the Republicans had 10% of the legislature, some of that 10% came from Montgomery County, while the Dems held almost the entire Eastern Shore and even held seats in Carroll County, north Baltimore County, and north Harford County.

Here are the figures.

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Uploaded with ImageShack.us

From these graphs, one can see that the Maryland Democratic Party really skated by until the 1990s, when their share of the seats dropped from 90% to 70%. This is still enough to coast by on, but it is somewhat less impressive. The two major loss years for the MD Democratic party were 1990 and 1994; 1994 in particular was a disaster, since we almost lost the governorship.

Compared to 1994’s loss of 16 seats in the GA, or even 1990’s loss of 8 seats, this year’s loss of 6 seats, 4 of which were open seats, really does not look bad at all.

In the State Senate we actually picked up 2 seats, which not only makes Maryland one of the few states where we picked up state legislative seats, but also bring the MD Dem Party to its largest # of seats in the State Senate since 1990. Indeed, Maryland is a very unique state politically, where even conservative Dems can still survive.

Oh, one more thing: Baltimore City started with 11 seats back in the 70s and now only has 6 (soon to be 5.5), but this doesn’t seem to have had much of an effect on the toplines – as many of these seats have gone to MoCo and PG.

So yeah, I think I’ll write my next diary as an analysis of Dem losses in MD in 2010 and an appraisal of Dem strength as it stands. Let me know what you think of this diary and if there’s anything Maryland-related in particular that you’d like to see in the future.