Tag: AZ-08

In light of the fact that Arizona has no less than five(!) competitive congressional races next week, I wanted to put together county-level vote baselines for each of the competitive races. Of course, three of those five congressional districts (AZ-03, AZ-05 and AZ-08) are mostly or entirely within one county so baselines don’t do much good there. I’ll go ahead and provide baselines for AZ-01, AZ-07 and throw in AZ-08. For AZ-03, AZ-05, and again AZ-08, I will be providing information about the State Legislative districts within their boundaries and give you some idea of what to look for based on which LDs report first.

First, though, a few general notes about election night. Polls close at 7pm local time (that’s 10pm on the East Coast and 7pm in California because most of Arizona doesn’t observe Daylight Savings Time). Nothing will be reported, however, until 8pm, when counties will release most or all of the Early Voters and Vote-by-Mail results. Precinct level results will then start to come in.

AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Flagstaff)

Alright, first up is Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, where Flagstaff Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick is in the fight of her life against Flagstaff Republican Paul Gosar. Now, I decided to use 2008-based baselines instead of 2006-based ones. This might strike some people as odd, because of the widely-parroted idea that turnout on the Navajo Nation surges during off-year elections. Unfortunately for Kirkpatrick, I’ve crunched a lot of numbers regarding voting on the Navajo Nation over the last ten years and that simply is an exaggeration. In the 2008 election, the Navajo Nation made up 12.5% of the AZ-01 electorate. In the 2006 election, that percentage was only a little bit higher, 13.5%.  However, other differences between the 2006 and 2008 electorate have a bigger influence on the baselines, most notably the fact that it doesn’t capture continuing growth in Pinal County and that it overestimates likely Democratic performance in Yavapai County (where ’06 Dem nominee Ellen Simon lived) while underestimating Democratic performance in the White Mountains (where Ann Kirkpatrick was born and raised-and where Simon got stomped.) If you want to figure that turnout in Apache, Coconino and Yavapai Counties will be slightly higher and slightly bluer (and thus Gosar will need to do slightly better in places like Yavapai County than the baseline suggests) go ahead. If you’re holding out for a Navajo Nation turnout miracle, however, prepare to be disappointed.

Anyway, here’s the baseline.

Counties	Kirkpatrick ’08	Hay	Other	Percent of CD	Kirkpatrick ’10	Gosar	Other
Yavapai	47	47	6	34	39	57	4
Coconino	65	29	5	19	57	39	3
Pinal	59	37	5	13	51	47	3
Navajo	57	40	3	12	49	49	2
Apache	74	23	3	9	66	32	2
Gila	52	43	5	8	44	53	3
Graham	43	54	3	4	35	63	2
Greenlee	60	37	3	1	52	46	2
Total	56	39	5	100	48	49	3

I’ve already summed up most of the intricacies of the AZ-01, but I’d throw in that Pinal County will probably be the crucial swing area.

Also, if anyone is curious about the totalities of my findings on the influence of the Navajo Nation on AZ-01, I’ll try to get another diary up before an election. (But here’s the biggest shock: Paul Babbit didn’t get spanked in ’04 because the Navajo Nation didn’t turn out; they turned out at almost the same rate they did in 2002-they just voted for Renzi!).

AZ-03 (OPEN)

Next up is Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District, where Phoenix Democrat Jon Hulbred is hoping to pull off a major upset against Dan progeny and Phoenix Republican Ben Quayle. Now a Democrat winning an open seat in a R+9 district in this cycle does seem a bit like science fiction, but polls have indicated that the race might be quite close, and the southern half of the district has been trending Democratic. Add in Quayle’s “broken moral compass” and Hulbred’s ability to self-fund and, well, this district bears watching.

Now, how can we actually watch this district, as it’s entirely in Maricopa County? Well, while I obviously can’t provide any meaningful county baselines, I can give you an idea of what state legislative districts are in the district so you adjust your expectations to the race based on what LDs report first. I’m only providing information on Lds where the majority of the population lives in the CD, as those are the most relevant.

LD	Location	Reps (Sntr, Rep, Rep)	Approx. % of LD in CD	Obama (District-Wide)	McCain (District-Wide)
LD-06	Northwest PHX, Anthem	OPEN, Seele, Reeve	95	39	59
LD-07	Northeast PHX, Carefree	OPEN, OPEN, OPEN	85	40	59
LD-10	Sunnyslope, Metrocenter	Gray, Weiers, Yee	70	44	54
LD-11	Camelback Mtn, Paradise Valley	OPEN, OPEN, Meyer	90	46	53

Alright, so the question that you’ll have to figure out if you want an idea of Hulbred’s chances on Tuesday is what part of AZ-03 is reporting first. If LD-06 and LD-07 report more quickly than the southern end of the district and Hulbred is holding up pretty well, than he may well be on his way to a big upset. If LD-10 and LD-11 appear to be reporting first and Hulbred isn’t up big, than it likely isn’t happening.

For another way of looking at this, you can also consider the results of some of these LD races. If Democrats Justin Johnson and/or Rita Dickinson look like they’re on their ways to winning the State Senate races in LD-10 and LD-11, respectively, then that would be a good sign for Hulburd as both parties are extremely active in both Lds, particularly in the State Senate races.

AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell, D-Tempe)

My bet for the biggest nail-biter in Arizona on Tuesday in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District, where Tempe Democrat Harry Mitchell is in a difficult rematch against Fountain Hills Republican David Schweikert. While Congressman Mitchell performed better than expected against former Maricopa County Treasurer Schweikert in 2008, that was in part because of huge turnout from Arizona State University-something he probably can’t count on this time.

Again, county-level baselines would be pointless in this district because the whole district is in Maricopa County. However, paying close attention to which Legislative Districts turn out first can give you a pretty good idea of what’s going on Tuesday night.

LD	Location	Reps (Sntr, Rep, Rep)	Approx. % of LD in CD	Obama (District-Wide)	McCain (District-Wide)
LD-08	Scottsdale, Fountain Hills	OPEN, OPEN, Kavanagh	100	41	58
LD-17	Tempe, Downtown Scottsdale	OPEN, Ableser, OPEN	100	56	42
LD-20	Western Chandler, Ahwatukee	OPEN, OPEN, Waters	90	48	50

Since the district is pretty well concentrated into three Lds (with small fragments in several others), and one is heavily Republican, one is relatively Democratic, and one happens to be the most closely divided  in the state. Basically, if LD-08 comes in first and Mitchell’s still holding up ok, than he should be fine. He’ll probably need a big win (and big turnout) in LD-17 to pull this out though, so if LD-17 is leading the pack and Schweikert’s looking pretty strong, this race is probably done.

If you want to consider LD races as well, keep a close eye on LD-17. In the State Senate race, Democratic State Rep. David Schapira is in a close race with Republican Wendy Rogers. If Rogers looks like she’s going to win, it’s hard to imagine how Mitchell holds on. I’d love to tell you what to look for in the LD-20 State Senate race except, umm, for some reason we’re not fielding a candidate there. Only the Arizona Democratic Party wouldn’t put up a challenger in an open seat that gave Obama 48% of the vote against native son Johnny Mac. Ugh. Anyway, I guess people can watch State Rep. Rae Waters in LD-20, though I think she’ll be fine either way.

AZ-07 (Raúl Grijalva, D-Tucson)

Republicans are ecstatic at the prospect of unseating Tucson Democrat Raúl Grijalva with Tucson Republican Ruth McClung. But do they really have a realistic chance of knocking off the Co-Chair of the Progressive Caucus with someone running on a Tea Party platform? Both my heart and my gut say that it’s unlikely, but weird things happen in wave elections and the district is only D+6. It seems like some of the furor over immigration has cooled off, but it’s not like the boycott is entirely forgotten. That being said, I’m not sure that the boycott moves enough Hispanics and White liberals for McClung to get over the top.

Counties	Grijalva ’08	Sweeney	Other	Percent of CD	Grijalva ’10	McClung	Other
Pima	73	24	4	48	58	39	3
Yuma	50	45	5	21	35	62	3
Maricopa	57	39	4	16	42	55	3
Pinal	49	47	4	8	34	63	3
Santa Cruz	79	19	2	5	64	34	2
La Paz	42	54	4	3	27	70	3
Total	63	33	4	101	48	49	3

I think this model illustrates the difficulty McClung will face in getting over the top, but all shows the potential for her to get relatively close. I could easily see her doing about that well in Yuma, La Paz, Maricopa and Pinal Counties-Yuma and La Paz Counties generally lean Republican and probably won’t be in the mood to split their tickets the year, and the portions of Maricopa and Pinal Counties that are in AZ-07 have seen big influxes of exburban Whites along with some middle-class Hispanics, so it’s surprising that Grijalva has held up there as well as he has. The potentially fatal problem for McClung, however, is Pima and Santa Cruz Counties. McClung can barely even pronounce Nogales, she’s not going to get many cross-over voters there. Meanwhile, the portion of Pima County in AZ-07 contains primarily urban Hispanics, several different tribes of American Indians and lots of those mythical “Tucson White liberals” everyone yammers on about when discussing racial politics in Arizona. She might pluck off some voters from the latter group, but her conservative profile makes it difficult for her to make deep in-roads.

Alright, that might have been a little too much spin, but the point is that, on balance, the political geography is rather hazardous for McClung, and, unless it’s clear early in the night that key demographics aren’t showing up, Grijalva should be on his way to a close but comfortable victory.

AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords, D-Tucson)

We end this journey of competitive house races in Arizona with the place where I was born and raised, Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, where Tucson Democrat Gabrielle Giffords is locked in a tough race with Marana Republican Jesse Kelly. While Republicans expressed concerns about their chances of winning this district after Kelly won the primary and Giffords has run several of this cycles better political ads, neither party is leaving anything to chance, and this will almost surely be the closest race of Giffords’ congressional career. Also in Giffords’ favor is the fact that she’s built a decent GOTV operation-nothing too flashy but much better than what the Arizona Democratic Party puts forth, which is basically nothing (Do you guys realize that Dems probably would have won the Arizona State House in 2008 if we had the GOTV operation pretty much any other respectable Democratic party has? Imagine: no massive education cuts, no suspension of the corporate property tax, SB 1070 has to be compromised or it’s thrown out entirely… but I digress).

Here’s what we have for a baseline…

Counties	Giffords ’08	Bee	Other	Percent of CD	Giffords ’10	Bee	Other
Pima	56	42	2	82	50	48	2
Cochise	49	48	3	15	43	54	3
Pinal	45	54	1	2	39	60	1
Santa Cruz	57	41	3	1	51	47	3
Total	55	43	2	100	49	49	2

As you can see, it isn’t actually that useful, because the bulk of the district lives in Pima County. If Kelly doesn’t look like he’s going to win Cochise County, than forget it. If Giffords is struggling in Pima County, than she’s probably struggling district-wide, but I didn’t have to tell you that.

In this case, legislative districts might be more useful than just baselines alone, because so depends on what part of the district reports first.

LD	Location	Reps (Sntr, Rep, Rep)	Approx. % of LD in CD	Obama (District-Wide)	McCain (District-Wide)
LD-25	Nogales, Douglas, Rural South. AZ	Alvarez, Fleming, Stevens	50	47	52
LD-26	Northern Tucson Suburbs	Melvin, Williams, Wright	100	45	54
LD-28	Midtown Tucson	Aboud, Farley, OPEN	85	62	37
LD-29	Southside Tucson, Davis-Monthan AFB	Lopez, Patterson, Heinz	50	59	40
LD-30	Eastern Tucson Suburbs, Sierra Vista	Antenori, Gowan, Vogt	100	43	56

I should note that my disclaimer that Obama/McCain numbers come from the LD-at-large and not the fragment within the CD is particularly relevent, because the portions of LD-25 and LD-29 that are in AZ-08 are somewhat more Republican than the presidential numbers suggest. The part of LD-25 in AZ-08 is probably about as Republican as LD-30 and the part of LD-29 in AZ-08 is probably pretty close to 50/50. So, if Giffords is struggling but the only parts of the district in are LD-25 & LD-30, I wouldn’t hit the panic button just yet. But if she’s struggling, LD-28 is all in, and you’re hoping LD-29 is going to save her, it’s probably not happening. In the last two races, Giffords has done very well in LD-26, because its tendency is to elect moderates. If LD-26 is the first out that gate and it looks like it’s turning on her, than it’s going to be a long night.

If you want to peg Giffords’ chances to legislative districts, again, keep a close eye on LD-26. Despite first (barely) winning in a Democratic year, Republican State Sen. Al Melvin is probably in serious trouble in his rematch against Democrat Cheryl Cage; if it looks like she’s going to win then that’s probably a pretty good sign for Giffords. If Democrat Todd Camenisch is upsetting Republican State Sen. Frank Antenori in LD-30, then it’ll probably be a good night for Southern Arizona Dems and Giffords should be fine. Manny Alvarez will likely have a pretty close race in LD-25 against Republican Gail Griffin, but unless he’s losing badly results there are going to say more about turnout in AZ-07 than voters turning against Dems in AZ-08.  

• KY-Sen: The Beltway chattering class seems to have either moved on from “Aqua Buddha,” or taken it as a given that it just backfired on Jack Conway. Josh Green at the Atlantic does some actual, y’know, reporting on what’s happening on the ground, though, and finds that the ad (and its rebuttal), and their aftermath, are still completely driving the conversation in Kentucky. Local GOP pols still seem to think that Rand Paul will squeak by in the end, but it’s thrown him deeply off message and the refusal to debate again doesn’t look good on him. (UPDATE: Actually, Greg Sargent just reported that the Conway camp is taking down the Aqua Buddha ad. To clarify “taking down,” though, this was a planned move, as it reached the end of its original run, to be replaced by this sales tax ad.)

• PA-Sen: Barack Obama will be making a four-state swing through the east coast and midwest over the weekend prior to the election; one of the stopping spots will be Philadelphia, where he’ll be doing a canvassing event. He’ll also be doing rallies in Chicago, Cleveland, and Bridgeport, Connecticut (indicating they’re still leaving nothing to chance with Richard Blumenthal).

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman breaking self-funding records has become something of a dog-bites-man story around here, but one more for old times sake: she spent $23 million in the first half of October, bringing her all-cycle total to $163 million. Jerry Brown, by contrast, spent $14.6 million in that period, bringing his all-cycle spending to $25 million.

• CO-Gov: I doubt this is much of a game-changer, but it may help flip a few more Colorado Springs area votes in Tom Tancredo’s direction (if there were any Dan Maes supporters left there). Rep. Doug Lamborn became perhaps the most prominent elected Republican in Colorado to publicly come out in support of Tancredo, rather than Maes.

• MN-Gov: The RGA must be seeing something the polls aren’t telling them, because they’re still fighting till the end in Minnesota. (Of course, if one committee has money to throw at unlikely races and see what sticks, it’s the RGA.) They just gave $1 million to third party group Minnesota Future to run more anti-Mark Dayton (and probably anti-Tom Horner) ads. (You may remember Minnesota Future from the whole Target contribution controversy. Interestingly, Hubbard Broadcasting, owner of local TV station KSTP, also was just identified as having given $25K to Minnesota Future. Y’know, because they’re part of that liberal lamestream media.)

• FL-24: And here I’d thought we’d dodged something of a bullet when Karen Diebel got sent packing to spent more time guarding her swimming pool. Sandy Adams, who seems likely to be the next Representative for the Space Coast, has come out in favor of the “biblical teachings” rather than the theory of evolution. I look forward to hearing her proposals for a faith-based space program next.

• ID-01: The Tea Party Express finally endorsed Raul Labrador in the 1st. However, that comes only after they tried to endorse Democratic incumbent Walt Minnick as their token Dem fig-leaf and he rejected the endorsement (over racist statements by one of their, at the time, key members).

• Early voting: Ohio Democrats are pointing to an edge in early voting, where they’re leading 44 percent to 34 percent for Republicans in votes cast so far. The Republicans are claiming the edge after three days of early voting in Florida, with a 148,000 vote edge, although Dems pointed out that was about where the numbers were in the 2006 election.

• Redistricting: Here’s a good counterpoint to several articles that have shrugged off the possible large Republican advantage on the redistricting front coming out of this election, one that actually looks at the actual number of House seats that are likely to be influenced. Extrapolating likely control of state governorships and legislatures, the GOP will have “untrammeled” control over 125 House seats while Dems will control only 62, a worse outcome than 1990 or 2000. (43 are in commission-based states or at-large states, with 205 drawn by divided governments.)

• Chamber of Commerce: This article was been making the rounds, but it’s a must-read if you haven’t already done so and you’re interested in the “dark money” that’s swamping the transparent money, this cycle more than ever. The NYT digs into what corporations are using the national Chamber of Commerce as a pass-through for their contributions, including Prudential, Dow Chemical, and Dutch insurer Aegon.

• SSP TV:

• AZ-Sen: This looks like John McCain’s last ad, as it’s a soft-focus closing argument type of spot

• CO-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters hits Ken Buck on environmental issues

• DE-Sen: Here’s the first Chris Coons ad to take on Christine O’Donnell directly, saying she lives in the “Twilight Zone”

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid rolls out endorsements from various local business leaders in his newest ad

• WA-Sen: Waiting until the end to go after Dino Rossi for his anti-abortion stance seems to be tradition now, in order to swing any last-minute moderate women who haven’t decided, and the DSCC piles on

• HI-Gov: Barack Obama, fresh off his Colleen Hanabusa spot, also cuts an ad touting Neil Abercrombie

• RI-Gov: The DGA keeps pounding on Lincoln Chafee over the tax hikes he’d like (I’ve also heard the RGA is buying an ad here on behalf of John Robitaille, though I haven’t seen a link)

• WV-03: Ewwww… Spike Maynard plays the terrorist card against Arab-American Rep. Nick Rahall

• MoveOn: MoveOn seems to have saved their powder for one huge blast at the end, running ads in eight Senate races and 20 House races (here’s their WI-08 ad), helping only Dems who voted in favor of HCR

• Sierra Club: The Sierra Club is out with ads boosting Democratic incumbents in FL-22, MI-07, and AZ-08

• 60+ Assoc.: The AARP’s evil doppelganger is running two spots, a two-fer in Arizona hitting both Raul Grijalva and Gabby Giffords, and… here’s a new one… Solomon Ortiz in TX-27

• Rasmussen:

• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 44%, Tom Emmer (R) 41%, Tom Horner (I) 10%

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 51%, Carl Paladino (R) 37%

• NY-Sen: Charles Schumer (D-inc) 59%, Jay Townsend (R) 31%

• SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 44%, Kristi Noem (R) 49%

• AK-Sen: Congrats to Scott McAdams, who just cleared the McMillion hurdle with $1 million in fundraising so far. The majority of contributions were from Alaska, with 88% contributions of $200 or less.

• KY-Sen: Matt Taibbi’s new Rolling Stone article as he works the Rand Paul beat is a must-read even if it doesn’t have any revelations as freaky as the “Aqua Buddha” story, although there’s some vague and anonymous racism from the newsletter that his snarky secret society put out. The prize-winning quote, though, deals with the Tea Partiers don’t seem terribly phased by any of this:

(“Well, I used to use that cologne myself,” was the response of one Tea Partier to a question I posed about “Aqua Buddha”)

• MO-Sen: American Crossroads has declared victory in Missouri, and is pulling out of advertising there, where Roy Blunt has a consistent but single-digit lead. (As for the actual party committees… well, it’s probably not relevant, seeing as how Crossroads and its ilk have made them basically irrelevant this year.)

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid racked up a couple endorsements from the big-in-Nevada gaming industry, including PokerPAC. He also got the endorsement of the former chair of the RNC, Frank Fahrenkopf, who warned of the threat Sharron Angle (with her ties to anti-gambling Gary Bauer) might pose to the state’s gaming industry.

• PA-Sen: Ah, sweet Schadenfreude. The Club for Growth is having to plug $1 million into the Pennsylvania Senate race in order to bail out their former boss, Pat Toomey.

• WI-Sen: Yet another story with Ron Johnson with his hand in the trough he so regularly decries: he says he’s not quite sure how five of his employees (and 10 dependents) at his plastics firm Pacur wound up on BadgerCare, the state’s health insurance program for the poor. That would seem to contradict previous statements from the Johnson camp that all Pacur full-time employees are covered by the company’s plan.

• AZ-07, AZ-08: I know John McCain has refudiated all his old mavericky ways, but did he actually have to go so far as to violate his signature piece of mavericky legislation, the McCain-Feingold Act? He recently cut spots for GOP candidates in the 7th and 8th, in which he and Jon Kyl appeared, and paid for them out of Friends of John McCain (his campaign committee). Dems have filed FEC complaints against McCain, saying that if he coordinated with the Ruth McClung and Jesse Kelly campaigns, he would’ve been limited to $4,800 contributions to each (they’d be legal independent expenditures if there was truly no coordination).

• CO-03, CO-04: The gang-that-couldn’t-shoot-straight strikes twice, in two different neighboring Old West districts. In the 3rd, an anti-abortion group has been hitting the airwaves attacking Ken Salazar. That’s fine, but Ken Salazar is the Secretary of Interior. His brother (the one with the mustache) is John Salazar, the Rep. from the 3rd. OK, understandable, since they’re brothers… but how do you explain the confusion in the 4th, where not just some outside group but the Cory Gardner campaign mixed up Betsy Markey with Massachusetts Rep. Ed Markey? They accused her of voting for the Obama budget, which she didn’t; that was the other Markey.

• FL-25: I don’t know how far this will get, but give local Dems in south Florida credit for audaciousness. A Joe Garcia backer filed a lawsuit trying to get David Rivera removed from the ballot. The suit alleges that Rivera should be removed because of state election finance disclosure irregularities, concerning Rivera’s mysterious claims of being a contractor to USAID despite USAID saying he wasn’t. While they cite a comparable case where a state senate candidate was recently stricken from the ballot from similar problems, I’m wondering if it may be too late to do anything about that even if it succeeds on the merits (although if it only serves to move the USAID deception into the spotlight, that’s good too).

• MO-04: More triage news… on the Republican side? Despite news of a Vicky Hartzler internal poll yesterday that showed a tied race, the NRCC is packing up, at least from the Kansas City market. I wonder if that has more to do with feeling neighboring KS-03 is locked down, as there are other smaller media markets in the 4th where they might still spend, but I think this has to count as at least a partial pullout.

• SD-AL: This is an interesting counterpoint to the anti-Pelosi (or at least Pelosi-skeptical) tide that seems to be rising among threatened Blue Dogs, including Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (who’s in the skeptic camp): GOP challenger Kristi Noem is saying that if she wins her race, she’s not sold yet on John Boehner as Republican leader, but would like to see who else might run. Recall that Noem previously politely told Sarah Palin to stay far away from her race, so this isn’t the first time she’s pantomimed independence.

• Early voting: There’s been some buzz today about a CBS News story that says that Dems are doing better than expected in early voting, although it’s kind of shy on actual numbers. It mentions that Dems have outpaced GOPers in early voting in Iowa, Maryland, North Carolina, and Clark Co., Nevada, while there’s a Republican edge in Florida and Colorado. Jon Ralston, of course, has more data on Nevada, while Politico has some Iowa tidbits, involving early ballot requests in IA-03 (where 50% of requests are from Dems, but where Dems are 36% of the electorate) and IA-02 (51% of the requests, 38% of the electorate).

• SSP TV:

• CO-Sen: Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund is out with a “high six-figure” buy in Colorado, with the first TV ad to take on Ken Buck’s failure to prosecute that 2005 rape case (the “buyer’s remorse” incident)

• KY-Sen: The DSCC hits Rand Paul on his support for the 23% sales (aka “fair”) tax

• NV-Sen: Sharron Angle wonders how Harry Reid made all that money in her new ad (helpful fact from Jon Ralston: he was a millionaire even before he was in the House)

• WV-Sen: Outsourcing seems to be the hot button issue coming out of focus groups that works for the Dems these days, as the DSCC keeps hitting John Raese on it with their new spot

• AZ-03: Jon Hulburd has another TV ad against Ben Quayle, poking at his values and overall maturity

• HI-01: Colleen Hanabusa’s new ad has a special guest star in the form of Barack Obama

• IN-09: The SEIU goes after Todd Young on Social Security privatization

• NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter, in her own ad, also works the SSP angle against Frank Guinta

• VA-05: Is the DCCC trying to drive up indie teabagger Jeffrey Clark’s numbers? They’re out with a spot hitting Robert Hurt for all the tax-raising he did in the state legislature

• Rasmussen:

• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 37%, Bill Brady (R) 45%, Rich Whit(n)ey (G) 2%, Scott Lee Cohen (I) 6%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 43%, Roy Blunt (R) 52%

• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy (D-inc) 42%, Rick Berg (R) 52%

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 54%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 33%

• SC-Gov: Vincent Sheheen (D) 38%, Nikki Haley (R) 47%

With only two weeks remaining, it’s time for another round of updates to our Senate, Gubernatorial, and House ratings. With DCCC triage in full effect, giving us a clear picture of who’s on the very wrong side of the House firewall, you may notice that this is the first time we’ve added House incumbents to the “Lean Republican” column. (In an interesting bit of symmetry, FL-24 was also the first race in 2008 where we dropped an incumbent — Tom Feeney — to “Lean D,” also about two weeks prior to the election.)

• DE-Sen: Lean D to Likely D
• FL-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
• OH-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
• WI-Sen: Tossup to Lean R

• IL-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
• ME-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
• NH-Gov: Likely D to Lean D
• SC-Gov: Likely R to Lean R

• AR-04: Safe D to Likely D
• AZ-07: Safe D to Tossup
• AZ-08: Lean D to Tossup
• CA-11: Lean D to Tossup
• CA-20: Likely D to Lean D
• FL-24: Tossup to Lean R
• GA-08: Lean D to Tossup
• ID-01: Tossup to Lean D
• IL-11: Tossup to Lean R
• IL-17: Lean D to Tossup
• IN-08: Lean R to Likely R
• MA-04: Safe D to Likely D
• MI-15: Safe D to Likely D
• MN-08: Safe D to Likely D
• MS-04: Likely D to Lean D
• NC-08: Lean D to Tossup
• NJ-12: Likely D to Lean D
• NY-04: Safe D to Likely D
• NY-22: Safe D to Likely D
• OH-01: Tossup to Lean R
• OH-06: Likely D to Lean D
• OH-09: Likely D to Safe D
• OH-13: Tossup to Lean D
• OH-15: Tossup to Lean R
• OR-04: Safe D to Likely D
• PA-03: Tossup to Lean R
• PA-07: Lean R to Tossup
• TX-17: Tossup to Lean R
• WA-08: Likely R to Lean R

28 of these changes favor Republicans; 9 races (DE-Sen, 3 of the 4 gubernatorial races, and 5 House races, including the Ohio implosion duo) have moved in the Democratic direction.

IL-Sen: My god, Mark Kirk is an asshole. The excellent ArchPundit catches Kirk bragging about funding “the largest voter protection” operation in 15 years in “key vulnerable precincts” where “the other side might be tempted to jigger the numbers somewhat.” And pray tell which precincts are those? Says Kirk: “South and West Side of Chicago, Metro East, Rockford.” Those aren’t just Dem strongholds – they happen to be the places where almost all of the African Americans in Illinois live. What a fucker. “Jigger,” huh.

KY-Sen: Clinton Alert! The Big Dog is coming to Kentucky to campaign for Jack Conway on Monday.

OH-Sen: Quinnipiac (9/29-10/3, likely voters, 9/9-14 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 36 (35)

Rob Portman (R): 55 (55)

Undecided: 8 (9)

(MoE: ±3.1%)

OH-Gov: Quinnipiac (9/29-10/3, likely voters, 9/9-14 in parens):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 41 (37)

John Kasich (R): 50 (54)

Undecided: 7 (7)

(MoE: ±3.1%)

IL-Gov: Biden alert! The VPOTUS is joining Gov. Pat Quinn for a rally in Chicago on October 12th at the Chicago Journeymen Plumbers Local 130 Hall.

NY-Gov: Carl Paladino, international man of mystery? The noted scuzzball is apparently buying time on all the networks for 5 p.m. today to make a “major announcement.” Sounds pretty stunty to me.

SC-Gov (PDF): Hamilton Campaigns (D) for Vincent Sheheen (10/1-4, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):

Vincent Sheheen (D): 44 (41)

Nikki Haley (R): 49 (51)

Undecided: 7 (8)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

CO-03: Morans.

IL-14: A Randy Hultgren internal from the Tarrance Group shows him leading Dem Rep. Bill Foster 44-38, with 4 points going to Green Party candidate Daniel Kairis.

MD-01: Clinton Alert 2.0! The Big Dog is holding a fundraiser in Washington, D.C. this Sunday for Rep. Frank Kratovil. Man, after all the work he’s done this cycle, I hope Clinton has a phat vacation planned for after election day.

SC-02: Rob Miller says he won’t vote to retain Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House. He also said that he plans to draft Joe DiMaggio in his fantasy baseball league next year and that he’s getting his wife a jetpack for Christmas.

Fundraising:

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio, $5 million raised (a new record)
• NRCC: Securing a $6.5 million loan

SSP TV:

• MA-Gov: Deval Patrick hits Charlie Baker for raising premiums as a healthcare CEO (while noting that he capped them as governor)
• FL-Gov: Rick Scott tries to paint Alex Sink as a hypocrite on various financial goings-on during her tenure as state CFO
• FL-08: A new spot from Alan Grayson hits Webster on women’s issues
• MA-04: Republican Sean Bielat is out with two ads (apparently cable only): the first attacks Barney Frank on the bailout (and features someone calling Bielat “a reasonable guy” – such praise!); the second is basically the same low production values, faux man-on-the-street shtick, and also has a dude saying, “If you don’t like the new guy, get rid of him in two years!”

Independent Expenditures:

• DCCC: Forty-eight different reports, all below











































































AL-02	HI-01	MI-07	OH-18
AL-02	IA-03	MO-04	OR-05
AZ-01	IA-03	MS-01	PA-03
AZ-05	IL-10	NC-08	PA-11
AZ-05	IL-14	NH-02	SC-05
CA-11	IL-17	NM-02	TX-23
CA-11	IN-02	NV-03	VA-02
CO-03	IN-09	NY-20	VA-05
FL-25	MA-10	NY-24	VA-11
FL-25	MD-01	OH-13	WA-03
GA-02	MI-01	OH-15	WI-07
GA-08	MI-07	OH-16	WV-01

• Concerned Taxpayers: MD-01: $38K on media against Frank Kratovil (D)
• Crossroads GPS: CO-Sen: $780K on media against Michael Bennet (D); FL-Sen: $350K on media for Marco Rubio (R); IL-Sen: $1 mil on media against Alexi Giannoulias (D); KY-Sen: $100K on media against Jack Conway
• EMILY’s List: CO-04: $160K on TV against Cory Gardner (R); WI-07: $20K on mail against Sean Duffy (R)
• NEA: OH-13: $550K on TV against Tom Ganley (R); AZ-05: $650K on TV against David Schweikert (R)
• NRCC: $111K on various media expenditures (they look radio-sized) in AZ-08, MA-10 & MO-04
• NRSC: $1.3 million on various media expenditures (these look more TV-sized) in CO-Sen, KY-Sen, WA-Sen & WV-Sen
• Revere America: NH-02: $356K on media against Annie Kuster (D) (see Blue Hampshire for more)

KY-Sen: Jack Conway has succeeded in getting a false and misleading ad by the “First Amendment Alliance” pulled off at least one television station, Louisville’s Fox 41.

WI-Sen: On the other side of the equation, Russ Feingold is being forced by the NFL to alter an ad which featured some footage of embarrassing end zone victory dances, including Randy Moss taunting Green Bay Packer fans. Could this really have been a mindless goof by Feingold’s media team? The Hotline’s Tim Alberta had the same thought I did: This sure was a good way to get plenty of free media coverage for this ad. (Judging by the number of Twitter mentions, at least, this ploy worked – if it was indeed the plan.)

AZ-08: The Smart Media Group is reporting that the DCCC has cancelled all of their ad buys in Tucson except for the final week of October. I suppose there are three ways you can interpret this news. The first is that Gabby Giffords is cruising and doesn’t need much help. The second I’ll call “panzers reconsolidating”: She’s basically doomed. And the third lies between the two: The D-Trip is performing triage, figuring that Giffords is strong enough to have a chance on her own, while other more fragile campaigns are in greater need of help. Choose your own adventure!

NY-24: Mike Arcuri is a lucky man. As you may recall, he created a new third party just so that he could have an extra ballot line to run on (and perhaps draw in a few votes from people who like him personally but can’t stomach the thought of pulling the lever for a Democrat). The problem: He called it the “New York Moderates” party, but state law forbids any party name from including the words “American,” ‘United States,” “National,” “New York State,” “Empire State,” or any abbreviation of those. Fortunately, a court ruled that he was able to retain the line by renaming it just the “Moderates” party.

Fundraising:

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan: $2.1 million raised, “on par with” Roy Blunt
• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D): $3.2 million raised, Pat Toomey (R): $3.8 million raised
• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D): $361K raised from 9/16-29, Dan Maes (R): $28K raised, Tom Tancredo (ACP): $149K
• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D): $1.6 million raised from 9/3-10/4
• OH-15: Steve Stivers (R): $757K raised, Mary Jo Kilroy (D): $603K raised

Independent Expenditures:

• CT-Sen: Sources tell Aaron Blake that the DSCC has added $1.2 million to its buy here
• OH-01: The Campaign for Working Families throws down $125K for ads to help Steve Chabot (R)
• OR-05: CULAC the PAC chips in $34K for mail on behalf of Rep. Kurt Schrader (D)

SSP TV:

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid’s latest is actually half-positive/half-negative, and concludes by calling Sharron Angle “a foreign worker’s best friend”; Angle’s newest is a race-baity spot that – jeez – features footage of scary brown people sneaking through a fence (wish I were kidding)
• PA-Sen: The DSCC also has an ad out that’s fairly race-baity, talking about Pat Toomey’s support for sending jobs to China – complete with Asian-style gong noises that were embarrassing even when John Hughes brought us Long Duk Dong more than a quarter-century ago
• GA-Gov: In a reversal of the usual roles, Republican Nathan Deal paints himself as the friend of teachers (and education in general) in his first attack ad
• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo continues to sound like an anodyne Republican in his ads (cut wasteful government, blah blah), and says that Carl Paladino’s “anger is not a governing strategy”
• AL-05: Steve Raby goes back to his mailbox to criticize Mo Brooks for being a DC tool (and then litters)
• CA-45: In this Steve Pougnet ad, little kids singing bowdlerized versions of the “Miss Mary Mack” (Mary Bono Mack, get it?) schoolyard rhyme are annoying
• CO-07: In an ad with weak production values, Ryan Frazier attacks Ed Perlmutter for supporting the stimulus and cap-and-trade
• FL-12: Dennis Ross recites some conservative pabulum
• FL-25: In a minute-long spot, Joe Garcia uses news coverage to revisit the David Rivera ramming-a-delivery-truck-carrying-his-opponents-flyers incident
• ID-01: Walt Minnick can’t resist hitting the illegal immigration theme again – and he, too, features footage of Hispanic-looking people. Just uck
• MN-06: A Tarryl Clark ad with really low production values stands out only because the otherwise serious-sounding female announcer declares: “Michele Bachmann: Not doing [bleep] for the people of the sixth district” (yes, there’s an actual bleep sound) [UPDATE: Gah, it’s just a fucking web ad.]
• NC-02: Bob Etheridge hits one of my favorite attack ad topics: Renee Ellmers’ support of a 23% national sales tax
• NV-03: As she did in her last ad, Dina Titus compares Joe Heck to Sharron Angle, this time attacking his record on education
• NY-13: Big fucking surprise: Despite voting against healthcare reform, Mike McMahon is getting attacked on it anyway – for not supporting repeal, and for just generally siding with Pelosi & Obama. Will Democrats never learn? Don’t answer that
• NY-20: Chris Gibson attacks Scott Murphy for supporting the stimulus. Man, it was a damn long time ago, but remember how much traction Murphy got last year by attacking Jim Tedisco (lol) for opposing the stimulus? (Not surprised to see the ad in that link has since been removed)
• OH-18: Oh man. Clearly polls must be showing Dems that attacks on Republicans for wanting to send jobs overseas must be especially potent, ’cause here’s another one, from Zack Space. No gong in this one, though – instead, he features a prototypical Chinese dragon, and then even has the announcer say a mock “thank you” in Chinese! I really can’t wait for this election to be over

CT-Sen: It feels as thought we’ve been partying like it’s 1994 in more ways that one this cycle. One major throwback has been Republicans who can’t control teh crazy and insist, Newt Gingrich-style, on calling for the abolition of the Department of Education. In fact, Linda McMahon did `em one better, telling some teabaggers that she would also consider getting rid of the Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency. I don’t understand whatever cultural bug Republicans have up their ass about the Dept. of Education, but suffice it to say that when you say you want to get rid of it, it sounds like you want to cut education funding, period. So please, keep saying that.

DE-Sen: A GOP source tells Politico that Mike Castle is fielding a poll to test his chances as a write-in. Castle has until Sept. 30th to file a statement with the elections board, something a spokesman said is an “under 5%” chance.

AL-Gov: We’ve seen all kinds of unexpected touting of seemingly sucky internal polls this cycle, but this may be one of the roughest. Dem Ron Sparks is saying that a poll by Capital Survey Research Center showing him down 52-39 to Republican Robert Bentley is “good news,” because a July survey had Sparks behind by 22. (Technically this isn’t an internal, but rather was produced by Dem-allied teachers union Alabama Education Association.)

FL-22: Allen West is out with what the Palm Beach Post is terming a “brushfire” poll (n=300) from Wilson Research Strategies that has him up 48-42 over Ron Klein. A recent Klein internal had almost opposite numbers, 48-40 for the Dem.

NC-04: This is a couple of weeks old, but repeat Republican candidate B.J. Lawson claims to have an internal poll from robopollster Action Solutions, purporting to show him up 47-46 over Rep. David Price. But, cautions Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report: “This isn’t your standard polling outfit. This is an outfit that most in Washington would not consider reputable.” Lawson only has $50K on hand (though Price only has $300K), and got crushed last time out, 63-37. His fundraising also seems to be off from his 2008 pace, when he took in half a million (he’s raised just $150K this cycle).

RI-01: Dem David Cicilline is out with a comforting poll from the Feldman Group, showing him up 53-38 over Republican John Loughlin.

VA-05: I’m almost getting tired of keeping track of these, but anyhow… the NRA is expected to endorse Dem Tom Perriello.

NY-AG: A couple of pollsters also took a look at the AG’s race in their recent New York polling packages. Quinnipiac, unsurprisingly, finds a close race: Dem Eric Schneiderman is at 37 while Republican Dan Donovan is at 36. Siena (PDF) paints a somewhat different picture, showing Schneiderman up 45-32 over Donovan. Both men have very low name rec in both polls, and the both hold voters of their own parties equally well. Donovan has small leads among independents in both surveys.

SSP TV:

• AR-02: Tim Griffin (R)
• AZ-08: Jesse Kelly (R)
• FL-25: Pro-Joe Garcia (D) airs ads attacking David Rivera (R) (if you find links to the actual ads, let usk know in comments)
• IL-11: Adam Kinzinger (R)
• IL-14: Rep. Bill Foster (D)
• KS-04: Raj Goyle (D)
• MI-09: Rep. Gary Peters (D)
• NV-03: Joe Heck (R)
• OH-01: Rep. Steve Driehaus (D)
• VA-09: Rep. Rick Boucher (D)

Independent Expenditures:

• Women Vote!: Aka EMILY’s List puts in $80K (TV) against Joe Heck (R) in NV-03, $23K (mail) for Julie Lassa (D) in WI-07, and $32K (mail) against Roy Blunt (R) in MO-Sen
• MI-07: The Communications Workers of America put in $100K (TV) against Tim Walberg (R)
• OR-04: Conservative front group Concerned Taxpayers of America puts in $86K (TV) for Art Robinson (R)

AK-Sen: Word is out about two forthcoming ad buys in Alaska: Lisa Murkowski is going up on radio and TV (NWOTSOTB), while Scott McAdams just threw down what Smart Media Group is calling “a partial buy of $48K in broadcast.”

Meanwhile, I don’t really give a fuck what John Kyl thinks, but it’s nice to see that he’s sweating the possibility that a Murkowski write-in campaign makes it less likely the GOP will hold on to the seat. (As an aside, don’t you wish Dems had handled Lieberman like this? Indeed, Republicans are supposedly weighing whether to strip Murkowski of her committee assignments.) But maybe Kyl is just being the idiot he always is, because a Republican source tells The Hill that internal polling “indicates Murkowski’s write-in bid takes an equal amount of support from Democrat Scott McAdams as it does Miller.” For once in my life, I hope Kyl is right!

MO-Sen: Global Strategy Group for the Missouri Democratic Party (9-14/18, likely voters, no trendlines, includes leaners):

Robin Carnahan (D): 39

Roy Blunt (R): 43

Jerry Beck (C): 3

Jonathan Dine (L): 3

(MoE: ±4%)

AK-Gov: NEA-Alaska, the biggest union in the state, just endorsed Dem Ethan Berkowitz for governor. And Bill Walker, the Republican primary loser who is still considering a write-in bid, is holding out the possibility of a Berko endorsement as well.

FL-22: The ghost of Casey Stengel is smacking his forehead and asking, once more, “Can’t anybody here play this game?” The Florida Democratic Party sent out a mailer hitting Allen West over his tax liens… but the managed to include his full Social Security number. Oy.

IN-09: Reid Wilson claims there’s a dispute between the IE arm of the DCCC and main HQ… but there isn’t a single quote in the piece, not even an anonymous one. Though the IE wing has cancelled ad buys on behalf of Baron Hill in mid-October, supposedly the “coordinated” arm “believes Hill is still deserving of spending.” I have no reason to doubt Reid, but if his source at main D-Trip wanted to get this message out there, this is a damn oblique way to do it – but maybe he or she was scared of accusations of “coordination via the media.” Anyhow, it all just shows how dumb these rules against coordination are.

KY-06: The Mellman Group for Ben Chandler (9/13-14, likely voters):

Ben Chandler (D-inc): 53

Andy Barr (R): 33

(MoE: ±4.9%)

This is the first poll that Chandler has released, though his campaign teased earlier in the summer that their internal from June gave Chandler a “strong double-digit lead”.

MI-03: This open-seat race hasn’t gotten a lot of attention, but Dem Patrick Miles just rolled out an impressive list of Republican endorsements, including a couple of former county GOP chairs… and two daughters of retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers! Based on the comments in the article, I get the distinct feeling that Republican Justin Amash must be a seriously unlikable dude for this many of his fellow party members to want to diss him so thoroughly. By the way, Amash’s fundraising has been unimpressive (just $380K), and he has less than half the cash of Miles ($227K to $112K).

NE-02: Biden Alert! The VPOTUS is coming to Omaha on Sept. 30th to headline a fundraiser for Dem Tom White. I’m gonna guess that Republican Rep. Lee Terry might have a harder time than most in tying White to the Obama administration, though, given that Terry put out flyers in the 2008 cycle touting his support from mythical “Obama-Terry voters.”

NY-18: Wow, the NY GOP sure is good at producing pariah leper candidates these days, huh? Republican Jim Russell, running against Nita Lowey, penned an essay for the racist Occidental Quarterly in support of ethnic and religious segregation a few years ago – but that description is way too anodyne to do his piece justice. For instance, he approvingly quotes T.S. Eliot, who said, among other things: “What is still more important is unity of religious background; and reasons of race and culture combine to make any large number of free-thinking Jews undesirable.” Click through to Maggie Haberman’s piece for a much larger selection of choice quotes. Also note that the Westchester County GOP endorsed Russell in July, after another candidate dropped out.

TX-23: What a fucking idiot: Republican Quico Canseco blanketed San Antonio with door-hangers that claimed Rep. Ciro Rodriguez voted in favor of TARP. But, uh, he didn’t. In fact, he voted against the bailout twice. Seriously, how fucking hard is it to Google this shit?

WA-03: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Denny Heck (9/7-9, likely voters, no trendlines):

Denny Heck (D): 44

Jaime Herrera (R): 47

(MoE: ±4.4%)

We say “no trendlines” because we don’t know the precise top lines from GQR’s previously poll for Heck (conducted in June), though we do know from Roll Call’s write up that Heck trailed Herrera by 7 points in that one.

SSP TV:

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink’s latest ad uses the words of local newspaper editorials against scumbag Republican Rick Scott’s campaign platform, while also touting her economic ideas. And, hey, some WOTSOTB: She’s spending $800K on the ad.
• AZ-05: One Harry Mitchell spot touts his fight against Congressional pay raises; another touts his support from three apparently reg’lar Republicans (but oddly leaves off the “I approve” message – is this not a broadcast ad?)
• AZ-08: Gabby Giffords hangs Jesse Kelly on the “flat tax” with his own words in support of a 23% national sales tax. I personally love going after Republicans on this issue because the dumb fucks who support this have to sputter that no, but, really, actually, what we mean is… ah, who gives a fuck what they mean.
• KS-03: An anodyne spot from Republican Kevin Yoder (people shouting “We’re Yoder Voters!”); and another pretty blah ad about small businesses (featuring a black-and-white photo of Pelosi without even mentioning her by name – odd)
• KY-03: John Yarmuth updates an effective ad from his 2008 campaign, featuring a disabled Navy veteran narrating about Yarmuth’s support for vets (ad is “expected to run for a week on all the networks in Louisville”)
• MD-01: Frank Kratovil also has a good ad hitting Andy Harris on the national 23% sales tax (see AZ-08 above)
• NY-20: A pretty clever ad from Scott Murphy, responding to attacks on his vote in favor of healthcare reform by pointing out some of the most popular parts of the bill, like closing the Medicare “donut hole”

AK-Sen: Man, we are seriously close! Just $195 away from our goal of raising $2,400 for Dem Scott McAdams in the topsy-turvy Alaska senate race. We have 64 contributors right now – I’d love to see us get to 70 before all is said and done. And if we hit our target now, you get to stop seeing nags from me!

DE-Sen: One final (?) independent expenditure report from the Tea Party Express, good for another $20K of media on Christine O’Donnell’s behalf. Damn this one ought to be exciting tonight.

CA-Gov: Gah, this is just unspinnably bad. Meg Whitman releases an ad featuring footage of Bill Clinton attacking Jerry Brown in the 1992 presidential primary, so what does Brown do? He calls Clinton a liar – and manages to make a crack about Monica freakin’ Lewinsky. (Talk about stuck in a time warp.) After a day, Brown finally apologized.

FL-Gov: Alex Sink secured endorsed from two top law enforcement groups: the Fraternal Order of Police and the Police Benevolent Association. Her campaign says it’s the first time in two decades both orgs have endorsed a Dem (the FOP hasn’t does so in 16 years).

KS-Gov: Live by the bailout, die by the bailout. Dem Tom Holland smacked Republican Sam Brownback during a recent debate for supporting a $200 billion bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – leaving Brownback to sputter that he voted against the bailout. Well, yeah, he voted against the infamous TARP. But Holland had him dead-to-rights on a separate vote, from July of 2008, which did in fact provide money to prop up the two government-sponsored mortgage enterprises.

ME-Gov: Watch GOP nominee Paul LePage get seriously testy when reporters ask him about the fact that his wife received homestead tax exemptions for properties in both Maine and Florida in 2009. (More details here.)

FL-02: Hah! This is why it pays to keep good records! Republican Steve Southerland claimed on a radio show that he had never donated money to Allen Boyd – so Boyd’s campaign dug up a $100 check from 1997 (!) that Southerland had made out to Boyd. Nice work!

FL-08: Tea Party candidate Peg Dunmire is out with her first TV ad of the cycle – notable, of course, because you don’t often see third-party candidates on the air (especially two months out from election day), and also because Dunmire has claimed she plans to put $250,000 of her own cash into the race.

IL-14: Idiot: GOPer Randy Hultgren made two separate contributions (totaling $2,000) to his federal campaign committee… from his state campaign committee. That, my friends, is not allowed (and which is why Hultgren is returning the money).

MI-01 (PDF): Republican Dan Benishek is touting an internal poll from TargetPoint Consulting, showing him with a 54-31 lead over Dem Gary McDowell. The polling memo is written in a pretty grossly sycophantic way, and my spidey sense is twigged enough for me to wonder if the ballot test was asked up top, or after some axe-grindy “issue” questions.

TN-04: Republican Scott DesJarlais is touting an internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies, showing him four points behind Dem Rep. Lincoln Davis, 45-41. Note to TargetPoint Consulting: This is how a polling memorandum should look.

DCCC: Reid Wilson has a detailed report on the D-Trip shifting ad money around, but really, it doesn’t sound very good to me. In the waning days of WWII, my dad (in Poland) would tune in to Nazi-censored radio reports about the German troops “consolidating their positions” or “shifting to more strategically advantageous territory,” etc. It was all bullshit-speak code for “we’re retreating.” So you tell me if you think the DCCC is reducing its ad buys in Arizona because vulnerable Dems there “are running stronger than expected campaigns,” or if that, too, is bullshit. Similarly, should we be happy that the Dems are cancelling buys in North Dakota? Of course, those radio broadcasts my dad listened to were in fact good news….

Chicago-Mayor: I don’t know if we’ll be able to keep up with what I’m sure will be an avalanche of candidacy announcements, but former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun says she’s throwing her hat in the ring for the Chicago mayor’s race.

SSP-TV (written by James L.):

AL-02: The DCCC, as part of its huge $1.2 million ad reservation on behalf of Dem Bobby Bright, is hitting Martha Roby for being funded by “special interests working to privatize Medicare.” The ad is no longer publicly available on YouTube, though.

AZ-01: Rogue dentist Paul Gosar hits Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick over spending in irritatingly-produced ad

AZ-05: David Schweikert attacks Harry Mitchell on taxes, bailouts, the stimulus, and (ironically) negative ads

AZ-08: Republican Jesse Kelly dubiously claims that he’s running to protect Social Security (despite last year saying: “I would love to eliminate the program.”)

CT-04: Dan Debicella goes after sophomore Dem Rep. Jim Himes on the usual GOP complaints

FL-22: Allen West hides the crazy in his new ad, instead hitting Dem Rep. Ron Klein on the economy

HI-01: Democrat Colleen Hanabusa reintroduces herself to voters

IA-03: GOPer Brad Zaun calls fans of government shrinkage to join his campaign

IL-10: Bob Dold! points the finger at Cap and Trade and Healthcare Reform for economic malaise

NM-02: Steve Pearce says he’ll create jobs somehow

MI-07: Mark Schauer gets a bunch of angry seniors to berate ex-Rep. Tim Walberg over his scary views on Social Security. I like this one.

MO-03: Republican Ed Martin airs his first ad touting his efforts to save jobs

OH-01: Dem Steve Driehaus says that Steve Chabot won’t stand up to the Tea Party

SC-02: Joe Wilson, via a retired General, hits Democrat Rob Miller on receiving fundraising assistance from MoveOn.org. His second ad touts his job platform. On a related note, Joe Wilson has a startlingly robotic voice – he sounds like something a Macintosh LC 630’s speech synthesizer would be spitting out in 1994.

UT-02: Republican Morgan Philpot urges change in his first spot, and says that he’s gonna “wear this sucker out” in ad #2

WI-08: Roofing contractor Reid Ribble touts his record of teaching high school volleyball

NRCC ads: AL-02, AZ-01, CA-11, FL-02, KY-06, MS-01, TX-17, VA-05, WI-07

AK-Sen: The NRSC is coughing up money for Joe Miller; they just cut him a $42,600 check and say they’ll be spending $170,000 in coordinated expenditures on his behalf, which CQ reports represents “the maximum allowed under the law”. I’m not sure how that’s possible, though, as the FEC has a $87,000 limit on coordinated party expenditures for Senate races in Alaska. What I do know is that Democrat Scott McAdams is already making the GOP sweat (although, Joe Miller’s balls-out insanity may have a little something to do with that). You see that thermometer on the top right corner of this page? You know what you have to do.

FL-Sen: Libertarian Alex Snitker has popped up to remind the world that he’s actually in this race… by announcing that he won’t be dropping out of the race, despite pressure in the form of “numerous e-mails and Facebook messages” from Republicans urging him to get out of Marco Rubio’s way.

NC-Sen: Normally, I’d bunch this bullet down in the ad section, but Richard Burr’s latest spot deserves some special attention. The ad, entitled “Front Porch”, resurrects the highly-acclaimed “rocking chair” actors employed by the DSCC in their extremely effective ads against Elizabeth Dole in 2008. Only this time, they’re singing Richard Burr’s praises and railing against the national debt. At least, I think those are the same actors; if not, they’re dead ringers for the originals. (To see what I mean, click here.) I’ve gotta say – pretty damned clever move on Burr’s part.

WA-Sen: The DSCC has reserved $2 million worth of ad time to help protect Patty Murray against Dino Rossi. The DSCC’s ads will begin on October 5th.

CO-Gov: Democrat John Hickenlooper doubled up on American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo in August fundraising, bringing in just over $400K to Tancredo’s $200K. Tancredo, in turn, quadrupled up on Republican flag-bearer Dan Maes, who raised $50K, nearly half of which was spent on legal fees and campaign finance penalties. Meanwhile, downballot Republicans are doing their best to rally around Tancredo, the only guy with the money and semblance of cred to run a real campaign. More than 20 elected GOPers in Colorado came out in support of Tanc. RGA chair Haley Barbour sounds about ready to throw in the towel, though.

AZ-01, AZ-05: Here’s a pair of fresh GOP internal polls from Arizona for your consumption: In AZ-01, rogue dentist Paul Gosar is tied with Dem Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick at 43-43 in a Moore Information poll conducted at the end of August. In AZ-05, National Research, Inc. has David Schweikert up on Dem Harry Mitchell by 46-38.

FL-02: Blue Dog Allen Boyd rolled out the endorsement of the Chamber of Commerce yesterday.

KS-04: By all indications, Republicans are set to have a very good year at the polls, but they would be foolish to consider a race like the open seat battle to replace Todd Tiahrt in the bag. Not only has Democratic state Rep. Raj Goyle been fundraising strongly and polling competitively in this GOP-friendly district against dickbag Republican Mike Pompeo, it looks like there’s a very real chance that there could be some serious vote-splitting on the right. Mega-wealthy businessman Wink Hartman, who lost to Pompeo in the Republican primary, is interested in running as a Libertarian, and Kansas Libertarian Party Chairman Andrew Gray said the chances of that happening are “very favorable”. Hartman, who spent over $1.5 million on Republican campaign, had a phone interview with the Libertarians on Tuesday, and they apparently loved what they had to hear. Hartman would be taking the place of David Moffett on the Libertarian ballot, who pulled his name last week after citing personal health reasons. Republicans, of course, are crying foul, but the KS SoS has already denied one objection to the withdrawal.

D-bags: Add NRCC tool Andy Sere to the list. Just click the link.

SSP TV:

DE-Sen: Chris Coons is out with his first ad, a spot touting his record as New Castle County Executive. NWOTSOTB, but it’s a statewide cable buy that the campaign decided to roll out earlier than planned in order to take advantage of the cat fud fight between Christine O’Donnell and Mike Castle.

AR-01: Chad Causey’s first ad of the general election is a spot that’s mostly biographical, but one that ends with a left hook on Republican Rick Crawford for his support for the bad kind of SSP.

AZ-08: Gabrielle Giffords is out with a solid hit on tea-flavored douchebag Jesse Kelly, hitting him with his own words on his plan to “privatize” and “phase out” Social Security, which, along with Medicare, are apparently the “biggest Ponzi schemes in history”. Hey, Jesse: thank you for being a moron.

CA-45: Mary Bono Mack’s first ad touts her efforts to support the “magic” of the doctor-patient relationship. Or something.

IL-11: Republican Adam Kinzinger is up with his first ad, an autobiographical piece which touts his Air Force service and his intervention in a knife attack on a woman back home.

IL-17: Phil Hare is out with his first ad in four years, hitting Republican Bobby Schilling on his support of “a bad trade deal with Korea”.

IN-02: GOPer Jackie Walorski has the right issue (the economy), but the wrong remedy (trickle down nonsense).

IN-08: Republican Larry Buschon’s first spot hits Democrats on, you guessed it, spending – and also on the curious notion that food grows in grocery stores.

MD-01: Frank Kratovil Reads The Bills. (The ad will run “on broadcast stations in the Baltimore and Salisbury markets”.)

MI-09: Gary Peters flips the bird to Wall Street.

NE-02: Dem Tom White hits Lee Terry on the national debt, citing his vote for TARP.

NJ-12: Rush Holt’s first ad is half-negative, hitting hedge fund kingpin Scott Sipprelle for his supply-side economics, and half-positive, touting Holt’s support of the middle class.

TN-08: Dem Roy Herron comes out against drug dealers, predatory lenders, and Wall Street. This one seems like it could use more of an emotional punch, though.

SSP IE Tracker:

Longtime fans of SSP will remember the House Independent Expenditure tracker that we updated on a regular basis two years ago. As much as I’d like to resurrect that project this year, the time constraints of law school prevent me from investing that kind of time. However, we’ll still try to keep you in the loop on noteworthy independent expenditure reports here in the Daily Digest.

NH-Sen: CULAC the PAC files a $66K radio ad buy on behalf of conservative Republican Ovide Lamontagne

IN-02: The NRCC files $95K in ads and polls against Joe Donnelly

MA-09: The SEIU is spending $190K on phonebanks and radio ads in support of Mac D’Alessandro in his primary fight against Stephen Lynch

MI-01: The DCCC buys $48K in ads against Dan Benishek

WI-07: The DCCC has re-upped their ad buy against Sean Duffy by another $50K.