Swing State Project

People here on SSP seem a little shocked that Christine O’Donnell could possibly be leading Mike Castle in the latest PPP poll of that race.

Here’s the diary just for convenience sake:

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

The conventional wisdom is that everyone loves Mike Castle, but having spent a considerable amount of time in Sussex County, DE myself, I never once doubted O’Donnell’s chances. I’d like to reprint a comment I wrote a week or so ago in response to a different DE-Sen diary:

My grandmother lives in Delaware

I think she likes Castle because he’s been around for so long. Plus she’s voting Republican this year for the first time because she’s mad about all the Hispanics being in Southern Delaware (she’s old, okay lol).

Only problem for Castle though is that she’s still a registered Democrat. I’m sure a good deal of his support comes from moderate Democrats like her (who are probably less racist but still like her). This is the Republican primary, so people like her won’t get to vote; this hurts Castle a lot.

According to the state of Delaware BOE, as of last month the breakdown statewide looked like this:

47% Dem

29% Rep

24% Indie/Other

In New Castle County, which has 62% of the voters in the state, the numbers were:

50% Dem

26% Rep

24% Indie

Only 55% of registered Republicans in Delaware live in New Castle County, compared to 62% of all voters and 66% of all Democratic voters. Therefore, the Dems are much more likely to select someone who’s acceptable and mainstream in New Castle County. Though a majority of Republican voters still live in New Castle County, a certain percentage of those voters are really conservative despite living in such a liberal county. Combined with the really conservative voters in South Delaware (Sussex County), who a few years ago actually ran a girl out of town (literally) for being liberal and Jewish and suing the school district for handing out Bibles in school, and you might be able to get a majority, especially with emotions running high on the far right this year.

The real trick for the O’Donnell campaign is to convince these conservative voters that she’s the real deal. If she can do that, then she does have a chance.

I ran the most recent registration numbers in Excel before I wrote that comment just to make sure that I was right in suggesting that the Republican base is South Delaware-based enough to throw the election to O’Donnell. Although the majority of Delaware GOP voters are in New Castle County, an extremely energized South Delaware electorate could overtake New Castle County’s GOP electorate.

Now, some of you may be wondering why South Delaware would be so conservative when Delaware is known for its moderates. The answer is simple: South Delaware is very rural, and the areas that aren’t rural are full of elderly retirees like my grandmother. Sussex County, Delaware is sort of the Florida of Baltimore/Philly/DC. New York retirees go to Palm Beach County, FL, while Mid-Atlantic retirees go to Sussex County, DE. Visit South Delaware, and you’ll see miles of pre-fab homes primarily inhabited by elderly retirees.

Now, Sussex County did almost vote for Obama, but this is likely because of 3 factors: 1) Sizable black and Hispanic populations. 2) Large gay/lesbian population in Rehoboth Beach, and 3) Sizable number of federal workers (mostly attorneys) who have come because of all the multinational corporations that get brought to trial in the Sussex County court system. Obviously none of these groups will be voting in the closed Republican primary on Tuesday.

Instead, what you’ll see is the onslaught of South Delaware’s well-hidden conservative masses. In my comment I talked about a girl in Southern Delaware who was run out of town for being Jewish a few years ago. You can read that story here: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07… . Here are a few choice quotes:

After the graduation, Mrs. Dobrich asked the Indian River district school board to consider prayers that were more generic and, she said, less exclusionary. As news of her request spread, many local Christians saw it as an effort to limit their free exercise of religion, residents said. Anger spilled on to talk radio, in letters to the editor and at school board meetings attended by hundreds of people carrying signs praising Jesus.

After receiving several threats, Mrs. Dobrich took her son, Alex, to Wilmington in the fall of 2004, planning to stay until the controversy blew over. It never has.

The Dobriches eventually sued the Indian River School District, challenging what they asserted was the pervasiveness of religion in the schools and seeking financial damages. They have been joined by “the Does,” a family still in the school district who have remained anonymous because of the response against the Dobriches.

Meanwhile, a Muslim family in another school district here in Sussex County has filed suit, alleging proselytizing in the schools and the harassment of their daughters.

A homemaker active in her children’s schools, Mrs. Dobrich said she had asked the board to develop policies that would leave no one feeling excluded because of faith. People booed and rattled signs that read “Jesus Saves,” she recalled. Her son had written a short statement, but he felt so intimidated that his sister read it for him. In his statement, Alex, who was 11 then, said: “I feel bad when kids in my class call me ‘Jew boy.’ I do not want to move away from the house I have lived in forever.”

Christine O’Donnell on socialism

Watch that video and tell me who you think connects more with these voters – the shrill McCarthyistic O’Donnell, or the moderate, respectable (read “liberal elitist”) Castle. Come Tuesday, the most important things to look for will be the relative turnout – South DE vs. North DE, and the margins from all 3 counties. I think O’Donnell easily takes Sussex and Kent Counties, while Castle easily takes New Castle County. The only question remaining is by what margin they take these counties.

Public Policy Polling (9/11-12, likely voters, 4/17-18 in parens):

Kelly Ayotte (R): 37 (43)

Ovide Lamontagne (R): 30 (5)

Bill Binnie (R): 13 (19)

Jim Bender (R): 12 (11)

Tom Alciere (R): 1 (1)

Dennis Lamare (R): 1 (-)

Gerard Beloin (R): 1 (-)

Undecided: 5 (21)

(MoE: ±2.9%)

“Sen. Lamontagne” may be a fridge too far, but there’s no doubt that he’s made a dramatic late run against front-runner Kelly Ayotte. Do you think the Tea Party Express is kicking itself for not making an investment here?

Meanwhile, in the gube race, ex-state HHS director John Stephen leads Jack Kimball by 45-24. No drama there.

Public Policy Polling (9/11-12, likely voters, no trendlines):

Christine O’Donnell (R): 47

Mike Castle (R): 44

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Holy shit, man walks on fucking moon.

And the House nums:

Glen Urqhart (R): 50

Michele Rollins (R): 38

Rose Izzo (R): 3

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±3.8%)

An Urqhart win would be something of an upset here, since Rollins won the backing of the state GOP. Both are richie riches, though, so I can’t say who I’d prefer to see Dem John Carney face in November.

UPDATE: Earlier this evening, we asked on Twitter: If Mike Castle were to lose the DE-Sen primary, would the DE-AL GOP primary winner step aside and let Castle run for re-election to the House?

It’s high time that we dust off our community cattle calls – we haven’t put up a thread like this since April. Whoops! But I can assure you that this won’t be our last cattle call of the election season.

The traditional rules still apply: In the comments, rank the Senate seats that are up this year in order of likelihood of flipping from one party to the other. The traditional SSP way is to include seats held by both parties in a single list (separate lists make comparisons harder). Go as far down the list as you like. Have at it!

I doesn’t seem like it was that long ago when Swing State Project celebrated the Democratic Sweep in Montana that elected Brian Schweitzer Governor. But next spring will be Governor Schweitzer’s last legislative session and due to term limits the seat will be open in 2012.

The great news is that former Congressman Pat Williams is considering a run for governor!

Pat Williams, like his cousin Evel Knievel, came up on the rough and tumble streets of Butte, America. But he was such a fierce advocate as a public servant that the Williams family is now widely considered to be the first family of Montana politics. After choosing not to run for re-election in 1996, he became one of the most popular professors at the University of Montana. In honoring Williams just last week, UM President George Dennison said Pat Williams, “embodies the ideals of civic engagement.”

If Williams runs, it would be a very exciting race. He was famous for running bigger door-to-door campaigns than Montana had ever seen before (or has seen since). In 1992, when Montana’s two congressional districts were combined into a single at-large seat, Williams beat another sitting congressman in the most legendary statewide campaign in decades. While respect for Williams runs wide across Montana, his bold progressive stances have earned him a depth of support that runs deeper than can easily be explained.

Keep an eye on this one.

UPDATE: The Montana blog 4&20 Blackbirds says:

Like Pogie, all I need to know is “Where can I donate? Where do I sign up to volunteer?”

Indeed.

UPDATE II: Chuck Johnson got him on record:

“My phone’s been ringing again, really for a year, but especially since the story on the Internet,” he said in a telephone interview. “I’m honored that this is the third time that Montanans have generously asked me to run for governor. If I ran, I’m convinced that I’d win the primary by a good margin and then the general by a smaller but safe margin.

“I’m 72 years old, and I am more knowledgeable and wiser than I was at my so-called prime at 35. The other thing I know is that there will be a lot of good candidate on both sides, Republican and Democratic, but I will not be one of them.”

The Democrats who voted against Health Care Reform are very well situated for re-election, considering that they are almost all from red districts.  Those plucky kids who voted for it in tough districts, not so much.  Not going to comment on the overall political wisdom of the vote (who knows where we’d be if HCR had failed), but the numbers tell a pretty clear story and it is an interesting aspect of the coming election (at least to me).

Here are the “no” votes on HCR.  Of the 34, 20 are up in the latest poll.  Only 2 (Edwards and Nye) are down.  One (Space) is tied.  The other 11 are either not running or there is no polling.  

AL-02 – Bright – up 9 in DCCC poll.

AL-07 – Davis – not running.

AR-01 – Berry – not running.

AR-04 – Ross – up 18 in public polling.

ID-01 – Minnick – up 23 in public polling.

GA-08 – Marshall – up 6 in Republican internal.

GA-12 – Barrow – no polling.

IL-03 – Lipinski – no polling.

KY-06 – Chandler – up 14 in public polling.

LA-03 – Melancon – not running.

MA-09 – Lynch – no polling.

MD-01 – Kratovil – up 5 in Dem internal.

MN-07 – Peterson – no polling.

MO-04 – Skelton – up 12 in public poll.

MS-01 – Childers – up 5 in Dem internal.

MS-04 – Taylor – no polling.

NJ-03 – Adler – up 6 in public poll.

NC-07 – McIntyre – up 7 in public polling.

NC-08 – Kissell – up 17 in Dem internal.

NC-11 – Shuler – up 17 in Dem internal.

NM-02 – Teague – up 3 in public poll.

NY-13 – McMahon – up 33 in Dem internal.

NY-24 – Arcuri – up 13 in DCCC poll.

OH-18 – Space – tied in Republican internal.

OK-02 – Boren – up 34 in Dem internal.

PA-04 – Altmire – up 27 in DCCC poll.

PA-17 – Holden – no polling.

SD-AL – Herseth-Sandlin – up 2 in public poll.

TN-04 – Davis – up 11 in Republican internal.

TN-08 – Tanner – not running.

TX-17 – Edwards – down 12 in Republican internal.

UT-02 – Matheson – no polling.

VA-02 – Nye – down 6 in Republican internal.

VA-09 – Boucher – up 10 in public poll.

By comparison, here are the 39 Democratic House members in Republican PVI districts who voted for the bill.  Of these, only 7 are up in the latest poll.  15 are down.  5 are tied.  The other 12 are either not running or there is no polling.

AZ-01 – Kirkpatrick – tied in Republican internal.

AZ-05 – Mitchell – down 6 in conservative poll.

AZ-08 – Giffords – tied in conservative poll.

AR-02 – Snyder – not running.

CA-11 – McNerney – up 1 in conservative poll.

CO-03 – Salazar – down 8 in conservative poll.

CO-04 – Markey – tied in Dem internal.

FL-02 – Boyd – down 15 in Republican internal.

FL-08 – Grayson – up 13 in Dem internal.

FL-24 – Kosmas – down 12 in Republican internal.

IL-08 – Bean – tied in conservative poll.

IL-11 – Halvorson – down 20 in conservative poll.

IL-14 – Foster – down 7 in conservative poll.

IN-02 – Donnelly – up 2 in conservative poll.

IN-08 – Ellsworth – not running.

IN-09 – Hill – up 7 in Republican internal.

KS-03 – Moore – not running.

MI-01 – Stupak – not running.

MI-07 – Schauer – down 8 in conservative poll.

MN-01 – Walz – no polling.

NY-19 – Hall – no polling.

NY-20 – Murphy – up 5 in conservative poll.

NY-23 – Owens – up 2 in conservative poll.

NY-29 – Massa – not running.

NC-02 – Etheridge – down 1 in public poll.

ND-AL – Pomeroy – down 9 in public poll.

OH-06 – Wilson – no polling.

OH-16 – Boccieri – down 14 in conservative poll.

PA-03 – Dahlkemper – down 14 in conservative poll.

PA-10 – Carney – down 15 in conservative poll.

PA-12 – Murtha – not running.

SC-05 – Spratt – tied in Republican internal.

TN-06 – Gordon – not running.

TX-23 – Rodriguez – down 6 in Republican internal.

TX-27 – Ortiz – no polling.

VA-05 – Periello – down 2 in Dem internal.

WV-01 – Mollohan – not running.

WV-03 – Rahall – up 16 in conservative poll.

WI-08 – Kagen – down 10 in conservative poll.

 Cross posted on http://frogandturtle.blogspot…. which you should visit for more election analysis and information on demographics.

My previous Senate Rankings can be found here: http://frogandturtle.blogspot….

Another August come and gone with Labor Day leaving too. This means that summer is officially over and if you live in the East Coast, you will agree. Everyone knows August as the month where people go on vacation and/or want to install air conditioners. August also has another name on it that not many people mention: the bad month for Democrats and/or Obama. In August of 2004, Kerry was down in the polls due to the swift boat ads. In August of 2006, the generic ballot was tied. In August of 2007, Hillary was crushing Obama. In August of 2008, Palin was nominated and tied the race (until she crashed of course but that comes later.) In August of 2009, people came to town hall meetings to parrot talking points by Republicans that denounced the healthcare bill and spread lies about death panels. Now August of 2010 is a month where Obama’s poll numbers are low because the economy was supposed to recover in a day. Rome was built in a day too. Also, this August showed bad polling numbers for many of the Senate candidates.

Yes, I am finally getting to the subject of this post: Senate races. August is always a bad month people so we should not be too worried about losing the Senate because it always gets a little better. Still, my Senate rankings are going in the Republicans’ favor because my rankings show the way the races stand now. Many races though will start seeing action soon but were quiet in August. Alaska is an exception where Lisa Murkowski (R) was primaried out by Joe Miller (R), a teabagger who makes the race closer. It is not close enough to put in the rankings though. Other races that are shifting are Florida Senate with Kendrick Meek (D) taking votes from Charlie Crist (I) who may caucus with the Democrats if he wins. Other races with movement include Pennsylvania and Ohio. I am not keeping Nevada on the list although some pundits suggested Republicans will vote for extremist Sharron Angle (R) holding their nose. As I see Republicans like Nevada’s first lady Dawn Gibbons endorse Harry Reid (D), I just cannot put this race on the line. I have also removed Missouri from the list although Carnahan can make it closer once she reminds Missouri why 61% of the voters supported her in 2008. I am predicting a 6 seat pickup for the Republicans. Enough talk about the races though, here are the rankings with a description on each race:

1. North Dakota OPEN Bryon Dorgan (D)

North Dakota is known for electing personally popular politicians regardless of the party. Governor John Hoeven (R) is anything but an exception to this rule.

Ranking: Safe Republican

Previous Ranking: 1

2. Arkansas Blanche Lincoln (D)

One of the Democrats’ last holdouts in statewide offices was Arkansas. Lincoln won a primary against Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter (D) when most pundits thought he would win. She will definitely not have the same luck while running against Rep. John Boozemen (R).

Ranking: Likely Republican

Previous Ranking: 2

3. Indiana OPEN Evan Bayh (D)

Bayh jumped out of the race as Dan Coats (R) jumped into the race. Coats is known as a former incumbent, a lobbyist and this is supposed to be anti incumbent year, right? Actually, it is an anti Democratic incumbent year. The Democrats nominated sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) from Evansville in southern Indiana, a critical area for Democrats to win so they can win statewide. The campaign has not gotten into full mode. Although Ellsworth should narrow the margin a bit, it is the wrong year and he is not doing well enough in the urban areas.

Ranking: Likely Republican

Previous Ranking: 5

4. Delaware OPEN Ted Kaufman (D)

Rep. Michael Castle (R) is running against New Castle County Exec. Chris Coons (D) and due to Castle’s  popularity, it looked like an easy win for him. Now the race suddenly got more interesting. The Tea Party Express which kicked out Lisa Murkowski (R) in Alaska now is supporting Christine O’Donnell (R) in the primary against Castle. They are going to pour in their money. Most polls show Coons winning against O’Donnell so if she wins the primary, expect the race to fall down the list. If Castle wins, Coons is still in trouble.

Ranking: Lean Republican

Previous Ranking: 4

5. Pennsylvania OPEN Arlen Specter (D)

First, the Senate race that kept changing was Florida. Although Florida does keep shifting, so does Pennsylvania. First, Specter switched parties and became a Democrat. Then congressman Joe Sestak (D) from the Philadelphia suburbs challenged him. Sestak won by 8 points, shocking the Philadelphia establishment. Sestak won by using an ad blitz but now he is sinking the polls against Pat Toomey (R). Toomey primaried Specter in 2004, ran as a conservative and lost. Toomey is now running to the center and Sestak is doing…nothing. He plans to do an ad blitz really close to election day. I do not think it will work this time though because most voters will have made up their minds.

Ranking: Lean Republican

6. Colorado Michael Bennett (D)

Bennett (D) faced a challenge from the left and Bill Clinton in Andrew Romanoff (D) in the primary. Bennett survived, defying a late surge for Romanoff. Now Bennett faces Ken Buck (R). Although Buck is leading by a few points, he is a prone gaffe machine who rivals Sharron Angle. Buck said that the difference between Jane Norton (his primary opponent) and him was that he did not wear high heels. Also, Buck said he liked the education system of the 1950’s. He did not say which part of the country’s education system. Did he mean the South? Bennett has not spent much time defining Buck yet which Bennett needs to do if he wants to win.

Previous Ranking: 8

Status: Toss Up/Tilt Republican

7. Illinois OPEN Roland Burris (D)

This race is another one where the leader in the polls keeps switching. First, Mark Kirk (R) from the Chicago suburbs was winning against Alexi Giannoulis (D). Then Kirk lied about his military credentials…more than once. Giannoulis though has problems with his family’s bank. Therefore, both candidates are tied. Kirk is a moderate and it is a Republican year. Giannoulis though will get the support of the strong Democratic party in Chicago and Illinois’s Democratic lean. This is a race that should have a recount if there is one but I expect Giannoulis to win by 1-2 points.

Status: Pure Toss Up

Previous Ranking: Not on top 10

8. Florida OPEN George LeMieux (R)

This race used to be much higher up in the rankings. Now with Kendrick Meek’s (D) primary win, this race is shifting in Marco Rubio’s (R) favor. Charlie Crist (I) used to be leading in the polls but Meek received a post primary bounce. It also though could be a permanent boost. Whatever it was, Crist lost his lead in the polls and is now a few points behind Rubio. It may be a temporary bounce for Meek but even so, Crist is getting squeezed from both sides of the aisle. Expect this race to fall off the line if Crist does not get his act together.

Status: Toss Up/Tilt Republican

Previous Ranking: 4

9. Washington Patti Murray (D)

I had a diary on the county baselines of Washington recently where I mentioned how Washington State is the New Jersey of the west. Here, Republicans always think they finally have the candidate but the voters always side with the Democrat. In New Jersey though, that trend broke with Chris Christie (R) winning the Governorship last year. Now former moderate Dino Rossi (R) is vying for statewide office for the third time. Rossi first ran for Governor and lost after a long recount in 2004. He ran for Governor again in 2008 and lost by a not so recountable margin, 53%-47%. Washington State has an interesting primary system where all candidates regardless of party run and the top two vote getters advance to the general election. Murray got 46% in that election and since it was not a high turnout election for Democrats, this looks like a close race.

Status: Toss Up/Tilt Democratic

Previous Ranking: Not on Top 10

10. Kentucky OPEN Jim Bunning (R)

I was going to put a race like Wisconsin in for this spot but this morning, I saw a poll showing the two candidates Rand Paul (R) and Jack Conway (D) tied. Although Conway is not from the crucial coal counties in east Kentucky, he is a strong candidate from Louisville which Democrats rely on now to win in Kentucky. Paul is well known for outrageous comments like suggesting businesses should decide whether African Americans can come and that Kentucky has no drug problem. Although Paul is a poor candidate and Conway is a good one, the year and Kentucky’s Republican lean is probably too strong for Conway to beat.

Status: Toss Up/Tilt Republican

Previous Ranking: 10

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    Gloom and doom, the storm is coming anything with a D by its name is going down and going down hard. Diary after diary with ever troubling news. Yes the world is coming to an end. Don’t you get tired of this?  

   

    All this gloom and doom is just down right depressing. Seriously the tone here sometimes is plain and simply mournful. I am not saying it is not going to be a bad year, I am bracing myself for a House loss. However let me share with you a narrative from my youth that I love to tell.

    When I was younger my great aunt was very active in the local dem party. She was a community organizer and volunteer before it was cool. She would go door to door, drag her husband out to put up signs. A lot of local candidates called her the de facto campaign manager. She even got mentioned in the local newspaper as the Mother of the Harrison County Democratic Party. She was perhaps best known for making a speech at the December meeting of the local Democratic Party after the November election. In the meeting she would stand up and always say “Wow, it is a GREAT year to be a Democrat”.

    Whether it had been a horrible year or not it did not matter, she would harp onto the positive telling of all the successes and not even mention the losses. We could have lost the Sheriffs race (the Presidential race in Harrison County politics) and many others but picked up a meager county council seat. Well we would hear her tell us of how that city councilman elect is going to do so much good and she would make us feel like we won every election with her optimistic attitude.

     I am not asking everyone to be unrealistic and say everything is good but let’s take a moment to look at what is going good in this cycle. Good in 2010, I know weird to hear those in the same sentence referring to dems. I want you to pretend to be my Great Aunt except you are making that speech to a room full of dem political junkies who follow every election. What will be the races you tell to the crowd to provide comfort? Here is my list.

My First list (the near sure things)

 (these are not in any sort of order)

1. Alex Sink- I honestly believe that Sink will win this November. Scott greatly helps her. I do not think the race should be taken for granted, I could see a Scott win, and that is truly horrifying but I think Sink will get a win.  I hope so at least. I do not know why anyone would vote Scott. That man belongs in prison not the Governor’s mansion.

2. Mark Dayton- I believe we saw a poll showing this a tied race but that poll had the electorate at a huge Republican, was it 47 percent? All other polling shows a Dayton landslide. I expect him to win 7-8% at least.

3. John Carney- If polling is an indicator then we should pick this seat up easily. I know his opponent has gotten a lot of hype but she is not that threatening and while Castle will undoubtedly win I doubt he gives the same coattails that we expected at the beginning of the cycle. I think he will win by say 6-7% not enough to bring down Carney.

4. Dan Malloy- He is heavily favored in Connecticut and he is nice to have for a future Senate run as well.

5. Cedric Richmond- Until I see non biased internal polling I doubt Cao can win. I think he will be close-ish, much more so than he should but I am sorry his vote against HCR ruined any chances he had in my view. At best I think he loses by only 7 or 8 points, which is an impressive performance actually. This is one of the few districts were Obama can help Richmond. All Richmond needs to do is peg Cao as the anti Obama who voted against the stimulus and HCR. Hit him hard for HCR.

6. Colleen Hannabusa- Her and Richmond are fixing mistakes but they are a pickup all the same.

7. Hawaii Dem- Whoever wins the primary is overwhelmingly favored in the general to be the next Governor of Hawaii.

8. Dan Seals- I do not think we have seen a poll showing him losing. That includes polling from the ever shady We Ask America.

9. Joe Garcia- I debated putting him into the category below but I feel fairly good about this race as he is a GREAT candidate and the Republican is a horribly flawed one.

List Two (candidates who could win but are tossups)

   (No order either)

1. Jack Conway- Thanks to baggers Conway has a shot. Conway is the perfect candidate he really is. The year will keep this close and probably deliver us a Paul win but this is not guaranteed I still think this race could change course and fast. The ads literally write themselves. I have seen Conway’s tough cop ad a lot over the last week and have been impressed by it. Conway is young energetic and down right perfect. I encourage everyone to watch his fancy farm speech, his second one not the profanity one. That speech was darn good. Put that in ad form and this race narrows a lot. If anyone in the Conway camp is reading this please considering doing this. Also a lot of ads with Paul making his whack job comments.

2. Jerry Brown- Sadly it looks like money can buy votes. However I have not given up hope on Brown yet and I honestly think he can turn it around. He needs to start advertising pronto. This is an important race and if we win here then the night will not feel so bad.

3. Bill White- OMFG if we win Texas this year it would be miracle. Seriously we could lose 60 seats in the House and Bill White would make me go to bed a happy man.

4. Raj Goyle- Honestly with the third party dropping out I do not feel as good but stranger things have happened. Not getting my hopes up but I am sure that it will be closer then it should be. If only if it was 2008.

5. Scott McAdams- Unlikely but possible. Two dems from Alaska, I think I may faint.

6. Roy Barnes- Now here is someone who I honestly think stands a great chance of getting elected. I am sure he will make a good Governor and could he be a potential Senate candidate in 2016????

My list is all seats held by Republicans. Yours does not have to be like that at all. Please come up with anything you want. Vulnerable incumbents whatever. You do not have to structure it like mine either. I know my second list is a little meh but I thought it would appropriate to separate the two. Could all dem users consider making a list? Come on Tek. I think it is a real positive exercise and I know I enjoyed it anyway. 2008 was a bad year for Republicans but even they had bright spots and even some pickups. 2010 here we come.

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