Swing State Project

Partisan Data a la Jeffmd is now available for TX and CA. Similar to NY, you have to click the “Use Test Data” checkbox near the top right before you select the state. These have newer population data (2008 I think) and the presidential data.

Secondly, I added 2 features: “Demographics by color” and “Partisan by color.” These are checkboxes in the Show section. Each colors all districts in the state according to demographics or partisan data.

More below the fold.

About the features….

When you click “Demographics by color, each district is colored by creating an RGB (Red, Green Blue) color like this: the percentage of the population that is White gives the Red value, the percentage Hispanic gives a Green value and the percentage of Black population gives a Blue value. The combination is the result. So districts that are redder have larger white populations, greener larger Hispanic populations and bluer larger Black population. I did not factor in Asian, Native American or Other population into the color. (I just tried to keep it simple for now.) You’ll notice sometimes districts colored black. That’s usually a large majority Native American district (the color value is 0, which is black). Some districts are colored white, which is the case when there is no population.

For “Partisan by color” It’s simply blue for the Democratic pct, Red for the Republican pct, and Green for Other.

Note: the Show Selected Old and New is shortened to Show Old/New CD. The coloring for this is now messed up, which has to do with other fixes I made, which are.

Fixes: (1) you should no longer see those weird dead zone triangles. I fixed the polygons. Except this messes up the Show Old/New CD and also the maps created by Save Maps.

(2) panning when you are way zoomed in is now slower and easier.

Note: if you already tried the California partisan data, you’ll need to manually delete the file vt06_d00_data_spec.csv in your Silverlight...mangled directory names…DaveRedistrictingCalifornia directory to force a reload of the corrected file from the server. (The first file had Hispanic and Other mixed up; the second still had some negative numbers; third time’s the charm).

Enjoy!

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/22-24, likely voters, 10/12/09-10/14/09 in parens):

Chris Coons (D): 35 (39)

Mike Castle (R): 53 (51)

Undecided: 12 (10)

Chris Coons (D): 47

Christine O’Donnell (R): 31

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4%)

Rasmussen (2/22, likely voters, 1/25 in parens)

Chris Coons (D): 32 (27)

Mike Castle (R): 53 (56)

Other: 8 (5)

Undecided: 8 (13)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Pretty similar numbers from both firms, though interestingly, Ras has Coons improving a bit while Research 2000 (albeit over a much longer timeframe) sees him dropping somewhat. R2K gives Coons 52-25 favorables, while Rasmussen has him much worse off, at 43-35 – but both show the same number of folks who have no opinion of the man. And both outfits also have Castle with essentially the same favorables, 65-30 (Ras) and 65-32 (R2K).

Christine O’Donnell, incidentally, is a teabagger who took 35% against Joe Biden in 2008. She also sought the privilege of getting slaughtered by Tom Carper in 2006, but scraped together a pathetic 17% in the GOP primary. She’s only raised about $20K this cycle, so I tend to doubt she’ll have much of an impact, though I guess we can always hope.

And as for Delaware’s at-large House seat (which Rasmussen apparently did not poll):

John Carney (D): 46 (44)

Charlie Copeland (R): 29 (21)

Undecided: 25 (35)

John Carney (D): 50

Fred Cullis (R): 26

Undecided: 24

John Carney (D): 45

Ferris Wharton (R): 35

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±4%)

Right now, I’d rather be John Carney than any of the Republicans, but there are only two ways to run for office: unopposed, and scared – and Carney ain’t unopposed.

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This is the first part of a series of posts analyzing competitive Senate elections in blue states. The second part, which analyzes New York, can be found here.

Illinois

In November 2010, Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias will face off against Republican Congressman Mark Kirk, in what looks to be a competitive Senate race. A heavily blue state, Democrats have been hurt by a bad national environment coupled with continuing fall-out from the Rod Blagojevich scandals.

Out of the three states being analyzed (the other two being California and New York), Illinois is the state in which Republicans are strongest. Out of the three, it is also the state with the most competitive forthcoming election. This post will analyze the political contours of the state, and the long and difficult path Mr. Kirk must tread for victory.

With respect to demographics, Illinois is structured very simply. It has three parts: Chicago, its suburban metropolis, and the mostly rural downstate.

To win, Congressman Mark Kirk will need to run a gauntlet of challenges in each of section of the state. He must capitalize on Republican strength downstate, revive it in the suburbs, and hope that Chicago turn-out is depressed. If done properly, this will result in a close-run, Scott-Brown type victory.

More below.

Downstate Illinois

Mr. Kirk’s easiest task should be here.  Much of downstate Illinois has more in common with Kentucky and Missouri than far-north Chicago. Like these two states, the region has been trending Republican: Bill Clinton did far better than Barack Obama here.

There are several complicating factors. Downstate Illinois has several population centers – but these cities tend to vote less Republican (they all voted for Obama, for instance). Moreover, Mr. Kirk hails from the Chicago metropolis and has a reputation as a moderate congressman; he may not play too well with rural conservatives.

Nevertheless, the region constitutes the Republican base, and Mr. Kirk will need every vote he can get. He should be able to win downstate Illinois quite comfortably. He will have to. After all, President George W. Bush won practically every single county here – and he lost Illinois by double-digits.

Chicago’s Suburbs

The true test of Mark Kirk’s candidacy will come in the Chicago suburbs. His task is doable, but not exactly easy.

There is good news and bad news for Republicans. First the good news: unlike other solidly blue states, the Chicago suburbs still vote Republican. Like Orange County, for years their strength kept Republicans competitive in Illinois. Take a look at suburban DuPage County:

(Note: A negative margin indicates that Democrats lost Cook County, or that Republicans lost DuPage County.)

Even after Democrats started winning suburbs, during President Bill Clinton’s time, Chicago’s suburbs continued voting Republican. In 2004, for instance, George Bush won DuPage county by a little less than 10%.

The bad news for Republicans is that each election, they win the suburbs by a little less. In 2008 President Barack Obama swept DuPage County and the rest of Chicago’s suburbs by double-digits. This victory constituted the culmulation of decades of leftward movement.

The test for Mr. Kirk is the extent to which he can reverse this trend. He will not just have to win the suburbs, but turn the clock back two decades – back to the glory years in which Republicans won around 70% of the vote in DuPage County. (Mr. Kirk will probably not have to do that well, given rising Republican strength downstate.)

Is this doable? Given that Republicans seem to be winning suburbs everywhere this year, it is certainly possible. Mr. Kirk, moreover, has spent a decade representing a Chicago suburb congressional district; this is why Republicans have nominated him.

Chicago

43.3% of Illinois residents live in Cook County, home to America’s third-largest city. Of these, half call Chicago home; the other half live in an inner ring of suburbs.

If God decided to create the ideal Democratic stronghold, he would get something like Chicago. The city is heavily populated by black and Latino minorities, mixed together with a dollop of white liberals. As a cherry on top, it is also home to President Barack Obama – and Chicagoans are highly aware of this fact.

Whether he loses or wins by a landslide, Mark Kirk will not win Cook County. He will just have to take the blow, cross his fingers, and pray that minority turn-out is low (as it has been, this year). That is not a good strategy, but it is the best Republicans can do when 89% of them are white, and they are competing in a minority-majority city.

Conclusions

So what does Mr. Kirk have to do? Say that he gets 35% of the vote in Cook County – propelled by inner-ring suburban strength and minority apathy – and wins a landslide everywhere else in the state (for instance, a 3:2 margin). This gives him 50.3% of the vote in the 2008 Illinois electorate. If white Republicans downstate turn out, and minorities in Chicago do not, Mr. Kirk may get bumped up to a 2-3% victory.

As we will see, this task is easier compared to the challenges Republicans face in California and New York. In Illinois they can (barely) get away with a white-only coalition. In California Republicans absolutely must win minorities – a novel challenge. As for New York – it is similar to Illinois, except that New York City is double the size of Chicago. And upstate New York is trending Democratic.

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/  

Anzalone-Liszt for Bobby Bright (2/8-11, likely voters):

Bobby Bright (D-inc): 54

Martha Roby (R): 30

Bobby Bright (D-inc): 55

Stephanie Bell (R): 29

Bobby Bright (D-inc): 58

Rick Barber (R): 26

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Very, very good numbers for Bobby Bright — especially when you consider that Bright sits at the top of SSP’s House Vulnerability Index for Democratic-held seats. Bright hasn’t made it easy for Republicans, toeing a very conservative line on almost every major vote and touting that style in his outreach. He enjoys a solid 68-25 favorability rating and a 67% job approval rating.

On paper, Bright should be one of the easiest Dems to knock off this year, but so far, it seems that he’s beating the odds.

UPDATE: Here’s something I glazed over the first time around — and something that the “But it’s an internal poll!” crowd may want to consider. Straight from the mouth of Republican Stephanie Bell:

Bell, who has served on the school board since 1995, said the numbers are similar to other polls she has heard about, but have not been released. She also said she respected polling from Anzalone-Liszt.

RaceTracker Wiki: AL-02

At the very least, she’s considering it:

Prominent Kansas Democrats talked up retiring U.S. Rep. Dennis Moore’s wife Saturday as a potential successor for him in the state’s 3rd Congressional District.

Stephene Moore was among a handful of candidates or potential congressional candidates to emerge during the Kansas Democratic Party’s annual Washington Days convention. […]

[Dennis Moore] strongly hinted during a luncheon speech that his wife is considering a run, telling about 400 fellow Democrats, “Stay tuned.”

And state party Chairman Larry Gates said, “I think she’s possibly on the list.”

But Stephene Moore, 56, a registered nurse, declined to comment about her plans after Saturday’s party luncheon.

“I’ve not made any decisions on anything,” she said.

I don’t think anyone expected this turn of events, but it seems that Moore may be attempting to recruit his own wife to run for his seat after several prominent local Democrats took a pass on the race. If nothing else, she should be able to salvage Moore’s yard sign supply with the use of a few strategically-placed stickers…

(Hat-tip: Charlie M)

RaceTracker Wiki: KS-03

So, hi, I’m Josh, this is my first diary.  I’m 17, and I got bored one day, so I decided, why not redistrict Maryland solely by 08 Vote.  In simpler terms, let’s use Dave’s, but instead, color-code into Very Dem (>70%), Dem (60-69%), Mod (49-59%), Rep (39-48%), and Very Rep (< 39% using Dark Blue, Light Blue, Purple, Light Red, and Red.  I have done that here, and I will do a county-by-county description of Maryland (I will post New York soon as well).  This will also help those who plan on trying redistricting with these states.  I will talk about each county, sorted by population

Montgomery-DC Suburbs

 One of the most liberal counties in the state.  The area bordering DC (Takoma Park, Chevy Chase, etc) is very, very liberal.  However, as one moves outward, the area gets more swingy, particularly along the Virginia border, such as in Poolesville.  However, further into the state, a line of dark blue runs through Gaithersburg and Rockville.The very North of the County, areas like Laytonville, are even somewhat conservative

Prince George’s-DC Suburbs

 A highly Black liberal area near DC, containing Univ. of Maryland and Bowie, it is almost entirely Very Dem, with exceptions in some of Bowie and Berwyn Heights.

Baltimore County-Baltimore Suburbs

 A county with extreme variance and quite a bit of polarization.  The area southwest of Baltimore is mainly Rep, and the area North of that (West of Baltimore) is much larger and Very Dem.  North of Baltimore is more Mod and Rep areas, while more North of that, near Pennsylvania, is a Very Rep area.  To the Northeast of Baltimore is a mixture of Rep and Very Rep areas, and to the East of Baltimore, along the Bay, is some highly conservative areas.  However, overall, this county is Moderate.

Baltimore, the City

 Enough said.  Highly liberal, sparsely populated southeast is Moderate. rest is very dem.

Anne Arundel-Annapolis

 Relatively Republican suburbs of Baltimore. The parts closer to the bay are more conservative than the inland areas, with Annapolis being an exception.  Some highly Republican areas in central county.

Howard-In between DC,Baltimore

A Democratic area, not as much as DC Suburbs or Baltimore, however.  The Eastern half ranges from moderate to Very Dem, while the Western half is more similar to the Panhandle.

Frederick-Frederick

 Except Brunswick (Moderate) and Frederick (Dem), this county is conservative near Virginia and very conservative further in-state.

Harford-Balt. Suburbs

 Our most Republican turf yet, very, very conservative.  More moderate along the water.  Contains conservative Bel Air Area.

Carroll-Balt. Suburbs

 Harford’s twin county.  Same comments, no areas along water, Westminster is less conservative, but still much more conservative than the state itself.

Washington-Hagerstown

 Frederick’s Western twin.  Conservative near Virginia, moderate to liberal in Hagerstown, very conservative in panhandle.

Charles

 From the looks of it, it wouldn’t appear to be a Democratic county, but it has been for the past few elections. One of few counties Gore won while Clinton didn’t.  Northern half is very liberal, 1/3 Black.  Southern part, more conservative.  La Plata in middle is moderate.

Cecil

 Balt. Exurbs and some of the E. Shore.  Elkton is moderate, the rest is Rep or Very Rep.

Calvert

Mainly Moderate Republican.  I don’t know enough about it to say any more.

St. Mary’s

 Southwest Peninsula.  Republican, nothing too much of interest.

Wicomico

 An awesome name, contains Democratic Salisbury, moderate Fruitland.  Rest is very Republican.

Panhandle (Allegany, Garrett)

 You didn’t think I would list every county individuall, did you?  These two are identical, except population and the fact that Allegany has some Republican territory in Cumberland rather than solely Very Republican.

E. Shore (Worcester, Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Dorchester, Garrett, Caroline, Somerset, Kent)

 Almost all Rep or Very Rep, no clear trends.  Some of Southern end more Dem, probably due to Black vote?

Please comment if you find this interesting so I know if I can continue this.  

Not surprising, but still good news:

“I took some needed time this week to thoughtfully reflect upon what had transpired,” Hill said in a statement. ” I would like to thank all those whose honest input I sought, including members of the Indiana Democratic Party’s Central Committee and folks from the Ninth District.”

Hill also offered support for Ellsworth, who faces a couple of little-known Democrats in his quest to become the party’s nominee. The state party’s central committee will ultimately pick their candidate after the state’s May 4 primary.

“I believe my friend and colleague, Congressman Brad Ellsworth, is the right man to fulfill the task of ensuring a Democrat is elected to succeed Senator Bayh,” Hill said.

Hill, like the rest of us, was totally blindsided by Evan Bayh’s retirement decision, but suffered one crucial disadvantage over Brad Ellsworth: he was in Afghanistan and incommunicado for security reasons at the time of Bayh’s announcement. For many strategists, that was probably just as well — they both preferred Ellsworth as a candidate, and his open seat would be slightly easier to defend over Hill’s. Still, Hill seemed upset that he had been passed over so quickly, which probably inspired his brief exploration of the race. And now we return to our regularly scheduled program.

Another Republican decides that it’s quitting time:

Rep. John Linder (R-GA) will retire at the end of this term, according to local media reports, finishing an 18-year career notable for a rough stint as chair of the NRCC.

Linder, who represents a solidly GOP district on the northeastern outskirts of Atlanta, has served in public office since winning a seat in the GA House in ’74. After winning his House seat in ’92 by narrow 51%-49% margin, he never faced a serious challenge again.

A longtime ally of ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich, Linder took over the NRCC in during the ’98 cycle, when Gingrich was speaker. But the public sided with Bill Clinton after the GOP Congress impeached him, and GOPers lost 5 sets. Shortly after the election, Gingrich resgned, and Linder lost the NRCC chairmanship to then-Rep. Tom Davis.

Linder’s district, based in rapidly-diversifying Gwinnett County, saw a pretty substantial shift towards the Democrats over the last two Presidential cycles. While Bush cleaned up in this CD, winning the district by 70-30 in 2004, Barack Obama closed that margin to 60-39 four years later. However, those demographic shifts won’t be enough to put this open seat in the competitive column this year. We’ll have to wait and see what configuration this district will have after the next round of redistricting.

(Hat-tips: Rural Dem and SSP user TheUnknown285, who has long guessed in the comments that Linder was nearing retirement.)

RaceTracker Wiki: GA-07

This hasn’t been posted anywhere, for some reason, so I decided to make it the subject of my first diary. R2K polled the Delaware Senate Race and the results were pretty ugly for team blue:

Mike Castle (R) 53 (51)

Chris Coons (D) 35 (39)

Note the really bad news here for Coons (which is ignored by Daily Kos commentator Adam B. – don’t know why he wrote about this instead of Steve Singiser, the usual polling guru): Coons is actually down and Castle is up from the last time they did this poll.

Adam B. tries to spin this as not being all bad news for Coons, but his reasoning seems a bit specious to me. Mainly, he suggests that this is like the Carper-Roth race in 2000 in that you have two popular incumbents, one of whom is much younger than the other and is running as the representative of the more popular party in the state. For those of you who don’t know that race, Carper, then the Delaware Governor and a Democrat, ousted the Republican Senator Bill Roth, although both were popular at the time, by a substantial margin.

Here’s why I don’t buy it: 2000 was a presidential year, which drove Dem turnout in Delaware that year, and it was a Democratic year over all (I think five Republican Senators lost that year). This year won’t be either. Also, I think Roth had some pretty severe health issues which I don’t believe Castle has (I know he’s had a stroke in the past, but he seems to have recovered from that pretty well). Also, Carper had been elected to some pretty heavy statewide offices – I know Coons represents two-thirds of the state as an executive, but that’s still not the whole state and still not governor.

Feel free to tell me I’m wrong about this. The Dem lean of the state means I wouldn’t write off Coons chances completely, but this poll does not give me a lot of hope.