Swing State Project

I don’t know much about Missouri politics, but I do know the state is ending up with eight districts (down one) after redistricting, and Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon gets the opportunity to veto any map that is submitted by the legislature. So, I drew up a quick-and-dirty map.

I think Nixon and the Democrats are likely to settle for a 2-5-1 map. Anything better for the Democrats isn’t going to pass muster in the legislature, and anything better for the Republicans is going to get vetoed.

MO-01 (blue, safe Democratic)

Democratic Rep. William Lacy Clay gets to keep his safe urban district, which remains narrowly minority-majority (48% white, 47% black). Not much to add here. I definitely don’t think the northward excursion into St. Charles County will be enough to give a Republican an opening, especially with the racial demographics staying pretty much as is. If Clay gets to draw his own district, it might end up more confined to St. Louis City than in this drawing, but I think Nixon will be talking to Clay and other African American legislators to ensure a 2-5-1 map. If he can keep them safe, there’s no real reason for them to throw Democratic Rep. Russ Carnahan in MO-03 to the wolves altogether.

MO-02 (green, likely Republican)

This wealthy, white suburban district, currently held by Republican Rep. Todd Akin, has been consolidated somewhat. I think he should retain it barring a stern Democratic challenge, although a Democrat with suburban appeal might be able to make him sweat considering the lack of ruby-red rural areas. And I don’t know exactly where Rep. Carnahan lives, but if he and Akin are drawn into the same district, that would be a marquee battle.

MO-03 (purple, swing)

Assuming Rep. Carnahan runs in this district, I think he might have a tougher go of things than before. It includes a lot more of rural Missouri along the Mississippi River, though it includes enough of St. Louis and its suburbs to remain competitive. Republican Rep. Jo Ann Emerson has also been drawn into this district, so it’d be a classic urban-rural matchup.

MO-04 (red, safe Republican)

Rep.-elect Billy Long should be able to keep this seat Republican despite having a lot of new territory to cover.

MO-05 (yellow, likely Republican)

Republican Rep.-elect Vicki Hartzler gets some new ground, too, including most of the current MO-07, but I don’t really see this district swinging either way, maybe unless Democratic Rep.-elect Ike Skelton ran again. But I doubt he will.

MO-06 (teal, safe Republican)

It was a bit of a pain to keep Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, the Republican congressman for the current MO-09 (which encompasses most of this district), in this district. He’d be fine here.

MO-07 (grey, safe Republican)

Republican Rep. Tom Graves overcame his stiffest challenge in 2008 with flying colors. He’s solid here, despite this district including so much of (suburban) Jackson County. No reason to think he’s not safe.

MO-08 (slate blue, safe Democratic)

This district is basically Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s current MO-05, urban Jackson and Clay counties stealing a few precincts from the urban parts of Cass and Platte counties. Cleaver should be just fine here.

Thoughts? Expertise from more Missouri-savvy SSPers?

Yeah, that’s what we’re calling it.

Because I can.

Cross posted on my blog http://frogandturtle.blogspot….

By winning one race by only 157 votes, Republicans control one house of the Colorado State Legislature so Democrats do not hold the trifecta in Colorado anymore. So instead of a possible Democratic gerrymander where they could retake the 3rd and 4th districts, the Democrats will probably end up with a bipartisan incumbent protection which is more favorable to the Republicans. The new Republicans may feel vulnerable because many of the new ones are in marginal districts they won in a very Republican year so the Democrats might work out a deal at protecting those Republicans in exchange for controlling congressional redistricting. That is not very likely though and I drew this map assuming it is a bipartisan deal. Ed Perlmutter (D) of Colorado’s 7th district is strengthened as well as newly elected Scott Tipton (R) of Colorado’s 3rd district and Cory Gardner (R) of Colorado’s 4th Congressional district. In 2002, Colorado was 5-2 Republican and in 2008, it shifted to 5-2 Democratic. The Republicans have the majority in the delegation now though with 4-3. Although Republicans came back a bit in 2010, I still think Colorado is trending Democratic due to Democrats moving into the Denver area from California. This movement could make districts such as the 6th competitive in the future, but for now, all incumbents will be much safer. Now, here are the maps:

link for current maps: http://www.nationalatlas.gov/p…

Denver area

Colorado’s 1st Congressional District: Diana DeGette (D) Blue

Obama won 70% (estimate)

Demographics: 8% African American, 37% Hispanic, 49% White

Old Demographics: 10% African American, 33% Hispanic, 52% White

Major Cities: Denver, Barr Lake

Status: Safe Democratic

DeGette’s district actually becomes a bit more Republican. I removed the Democratic suburbs around Englewood and replaced them with more moderate suburbs such as Brighton and Barr Lake. DeGette may not like having the new territory (and she even loses some Denver neighborhoods) but since the district is still mostly in Denver, she should have no problems at all facing reelection. Her district is now the only minority majority district in Colorado.

Colorado 2 Jared Polis (D) Green

Obama won 66% (estimate)

Demographics: 15% Hispanic, 80% White

Old Demographics: 18% Hispanic, 76% White

Major Cities: Boulder, Broomfield, Aspen

Status: Safe Democratic

Polis was already safe but his district becomes a Democratic vote sink to shore up the 3rd district now held by Scott Tipton (R). If Democrats had the trifecta here, they could have unpacked this district to make the 3rd district Democratic enough for John Salazar (D) to retake but as it is, the 2nd will take Democratic areas out of the 3rd. The 2nd loses all of Adams and Larmier Counties. The 2nd is more of a Rocky Mountain district now by picking up Democratic ski resort counties such as Routt (Steamboat Springs,) Pitkin (Aspen,) and Gunnison (Crested Butte.)

North Colorado

South Colorado

Colorado 3 Scott Tipton (R) Purple

McCain won 52% (estimate)

Demographics: 22% Hispanic, 73% White

Old Demographics: 22% Hispanic, 73% White

Major Cities: Pueblo, Grand Junction

Status: Likely Republican

Under a bipartisan plan, Tipton will be strengthened but due to the current demographics, strengthening Tipton is difficult without making convoluted lines or putting the 4th district Republican in jeopardy. I strengthened Tipton by removing Pitkin County (Aspen) as well as some other ski areas that I put in the 2nd. I added conservative Park County and a few conservative rural counties in southeastern Colorado. Obama also over performed the district’s usual Democratic percentage here due to high turnout in the ski areas but the district may become competitive again if Hispanics keep trending Democratic. This would be an opening for Salazar who is Hispanic and could do win enough Hispanics to beat Tipton. Salazar has an uphill battle though with the ski areas in the 2nd district though.

Colorado 4 Cory Gardner (R) Red

McCain won 52% (estimate)

Demographics: 18% Hispanic, 78% White

Old Demographics: 19% Hispanic, 76% White

Major Cities: Fort Collins, Greeley, Lamar

Status: Lean Republican

Due to population purposes, strengthening this district was difficult but I still made Gardner safer. I removed some Democratic areas in Adams and Boulder Counties. The district needs to shed territory anyway due to population growth but I added Elbert County as well as the conservative rural parts of Adams and Arapahoe Counties. Betsy Markey (D) who held this district from 2008 to 2010 might be able to win in a Democratic year here but the district’s changes will make winning harder for her.

Colorado 5 Doug Lamborn (R) Yellow

McCain won 59% (estimate)

Demographics: 5% African American, 13% Hispanic, 76% White

Old Demographics: 5% African, 13% Hispanic, 75% White

Major Cities: Colorado Springs, Castle Rock

Status: Safe Republican

At a first glance, this district appears to undergo major changes but population wise, it does not. It just loses some rural counties to the west to make the 3rd district more Republican while picking up a large portion of Douglas County. Lamborn was already safe with strongly Republican Colorado Springs in his district but he is just as safe now, if not safer.

Colorado 6 Mike Coffman (R) Teal

McCain won 52% (estimate)

Demographics: 9% Hispanic, 82% White

Old Demographics: 8% Hispanic, 84% White

Major Cities: Parker, Centennial

Status: Likely Republican

Coffman’s district says pretty similar demographically but his district becomes more difficult to hold. He picks up a large portion of Lakewood which formally was in the Democratic leaning 7th district while losing part of heavily Republican Douglas County. Although Coffman may be safe now, Jefferson and Araphaoe Counties are becoming more Democratic and now that they have more people in the district, Coffman may be in trouble in the end of the decade. That should however give him enough time to become entrenched in his district so he can fend away any challenge. The Republicans probably want Coffman to have more territory but that will be hard because the 3rd and 4th districts need their Republican areas.

Colorado 7 Ed Perlmutter (D) Orange

Obama won 62% (estimate)

Demographics: 7% African American, 27% Hispanic, 60% White

Old Demographics: 6% African American, 26% Hispanic, 61% White

Major Cities: Aurora, Lakewood, Arvada

Status: Safe Democratic

Although Obama won 59% under the current lines, the district was originally drawn as a swing district so Perlmutter will probably have a safer district on his wish list. This is what the new map does by adding in a few Denver neighborhoods. It also picks up more of Democratic Aurora while losing the less Democratic parts of Lakewood. Perlmutter also gains more of Adams County by picking up more of Westminister although he loses the rural eastern part to the 4th district. Perlmutter should be much safer, although he seemed to be doing fine already.

Updated:

After looking at the suggestions, here is my new version of Colorado:

Colorado

Denver area

Colorado 1

10% African American, 39% Hispanic, 46% White

(minority majority!)

Colorado 2

13% Hispanic, 81% White

I send it to Fort Collins to help shore up the 4th but Polis should be safe since he still has Boulder, he picked up Routt County and Fort Collins went for Obama.

Colorado 3

22% Hispanic, 73% White

This district is now basically split by picking up Eagle County.

Colorado 4

19% Hispanic, 77% White

This district is now safely Republican with the loss of Fort Collins and the inclusion of Douglas County.

Colorado 5

6% African American, 13% Hispanic, 75% White

The lines are basically the same as the old district.

Colorado 6

9% Hispanic, 83% White

Colorado 7

5% African American, 25% Hispanic, 63% White

This district gets a bit whiter but picks up some white parts of Denver so this district is more Democratic than it looks.  

The Census Bureau has released its 2010 reapportionment numbers. All of today’s data dump can be seen here; the most important items of data are here, in the form of the map showing today’s winners and losers.

If this graph looks familiar, I’m using the last few rounds of Election Data Services projections as a yardstick for the actual results. (Kudos to them — or to the Census Bureau’s annual estimates, really. They basically nailed it.)

A few various other tidbits shared at today’s news conference: the fastest growth rates, among states, were Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, and Texas. Slowest growth were Michigan (the only one to decline since 2000), Rhode Island, Louisiana, Ohio, and New York. With a national population of 308,745,538, the average House district will have 710K constituents (up from 646K in 2000).

Gentlemen, start your redistricting engines!

UPDATE: Courtesy of Jeffmd, we’ve got the last 15 and first 15 (in other words, which states were most on the bubble, in order). Minnesota was the narrowest escapee, holding its 8th seat at North Carolina’s expense by less than 15,000 people.

#	Last 15		#	Next 15
435th	Minnesota 8th		436th	North Carolina 14th
434th	California 53rd		437th	Missouri 9th
433rd	Texas 36th		438th	New York 28th
432nd	Washington 10th		439th	New Jersey 13th
431st	Florida 27th		440th	Montana 2nd
430th	South Carolina 7th		441st	Louisiana 7th
429th	Georgia 14th		442nd	Oregon 6th
428th	California 52nd		443rd	Ohio 17th
427th	Pennsylvania 18th		444th	Virginia 12th
426th	Texas 35th		445th	California 54th
425th	New York 27th		446th	Illinois 19th
424th	Michigan 14th		447th	Texas 37th
423rd	Illinois 18th		448th	Massachusetts 10th
422nd	California 51st		449th	Pennsylvania 19th
421st	Alabama 7th		450th	Florida 28th

At 11am Eastern on Tuesday, the Census Bureau will release population data which will tell us how the House of Representatives will be reapportioned. What are your predictions for which states will gain seats – and which will lose? As a guidepost, you can check out Election Data Services’ most recent projection here. Have at it!

Without further ado, here’s what SSP Labs has to say on this most recent round of reapportionment, applying the Huntington-Hill method to the new Census data.

With all the redistricting fun, I feel as if I should take a stab at my home state, Wisconsin.  Unfortunately for Democrats, this past cycle was an absolute bloodbath.  We lost basically everything that was competitive, with the exception of Ron Kind’s seat and some State Senate and Assembly seats, even the State Senate Majority leader and Speaker of the State Assembly were defeated.   Thus this leaves Republicans with complete discretion with redistricting.  While there is plenty to do with the state legislative seats (of which I also created a map of State Senate seats that can potentially lock Democrats out for years), there simply is not that much that can be done with congressional seats.  While Republicans might take this year’s results as a sign that Wisconsin will have a permanent conservative majority, it is instructive to look at the 2008 map and see how it is basically the complete opposite.  As a result, with the exception of the Milwaukee area, the Madison area, and a few other areas, most of the state is basically swing areas, as the 2008 and 2010 maps indicate.

Thus, the problem for the Wisconsin GOP is that Wisconsin will support at least 3 Democratic seats.  Milwaukee and Madison are simply too large and too Democratic to get rid of Moore and Baldwin. Besides I cannot imagine a Republican wanting to take on inner-city Milwaukee or lefty Madison.    As for Ron Kind, if he can stand a year like this, he has his seat for life.  Additionally, Wisconsin is peculiar in that it has a number of rural Democratic voters in the West and Southwest parts of the state, so it would be difficult to get rid of a third Democratic seat.  

With this in mind, I decided that the best and safest path would be not necessarily an incumbent protection map, but protecting Ryan and Duffy.   With Ryan being Budget Chair in the House, I simply cannot see him wanted to change shift.  He has no reason for running for Governor and for him to run for Senate would see him give up his seat for at best a 50/50 run and more importantly, give up his power in the House.  He is probably more powerful in the House than in the Senate, so I think he would stay put.  However, his district has become quite marginal, so much so even Obama won his district.  Thus, I wanted to make him safer so that his district is more in line with his views.  Additionally, I view Duffy as an asset to protect because he is young, telegenic, and could eventually be statewide material.  Thus, I wanted to move his district a few more points Republican.  This meant weakening Ribble, but I think he should still be fine in his district and I see protecting Duffy more important in the long run.  

So here we go:

First District (Gray): This district becomes significantly more Republican with the subtraction of the city of Racine, which is heavily Democratic, and the addition heavily Republican Waukesha county.  Even if Ryan were to retire, or venture a run for Senate or some White House gig, this would likely elect another Republican.  However, given Ryan’s clout in the House, I really cannot see him wanting to give that up.

Second District (Blue) This does not change that much.  Still based in heavily Democratic and fast growing Dane County.  Baldwin or any Democrat would be favored to hold.  

Third District (Yellow):  If the GOP could not take out Ron Kind this year, they will never take him out. This still contains the lean Democratic rural parts of Wisconsin. However, to help out Duffy, I added the very Democratic northern counties and subtracted some Republican-trending Minneapolis exurbs, making this district a little more Democratic.

Fourth District (Green):  This Milwaukee-based district expands to include Racine, in order to help out Ryan.  This is actually a majority non-white district.  With Milwaukee and Racine, this still remains the most Democratic and most partisan (PVI-wise) district in the state.

Fifth District (Red):  While Sensenbrenner’s district is weakened to help Ryan is still is solidly Republican. This district does contain more of Milwaukee county, but that is more than overwhelmed by the heavily Republican and heavy turnout Washington and Ozaukee counties.  While it is likely Jim will retire soon, this will return a Republican as the Democrats have basically no Bench in this area.

Sixth District (Indigo): As Petri is also liable to retire soon, this could become ripe for a pickup.  However, the district remains a lean Republican district, so it would be an uphill climb for any Democrat.  

Seventh District (Purple):  As stated above, my other goal was to help out Duffy as I can see him becoming a potential statewide threat.  The issue is that so much of this area is fundamentally swingy.  However, with the subtraction of Wausau, Stevens Point, and the Lake Superior counties (although still keeping his home in Ashland), and the addition of some Twin Cities exurbs and traditional Republican NE Wisconsin territory, this shifts a few points Republican.   This takes out a significant amount of the Democratic bench, so this should help out the freshman significantly.

Eight District  (Teal): The downside of helping out Duffy is hurting another freshman Ribble.  The territory swap is enough to perhaps swap the PVIs.  Since this district contains so many Democratic cities (Appleton, Green Bay, Wausau, Stevens Point) this might become a marginally Democrat district. However, most of this district is traditionally Republican areas, so it is not as if Ribble is being let out in the cold.  

So the conclusion of this is that the current 5-3 split in the delegation is likely to remain, with the Young Guns of the state seeing an improvement in their districts.

It’s time for a new one of these.