Swing State Project

Though this was expected to be a boring year for Indiana politics, nothing can be farther from the truth. We had the last FU from Evan Bayh, the resignation of Mark Souder, Ellsworth making a plunge for Senate, and the worst candidate for Secretary of State candidate the Republicans have ever nominated. These predictions are much more pessimistic than they were months ago when I crafted my orginal diary. Times were different then and it looked as if things could still be turned around. They have not. But it will still not be a horrible night all the same. Enjoy!  

IN Senate

When Evan Bayh announced just days before the filing date that he would not seek re-election I was furious. However his timing was actually brilliant. It ensured that none of the big name Republicans who would love the job like Pence or Daniels got on the ballot. Instead the Republicans got stuck with washed up former Senator Dan Coats. Coats has been gaff-tastic and is a seriously flawed candidate. While he had a bloody fight to get his parties nomination over a bunch of nobodies we quietly nominated top tier candidate Congressman Brad Ellsworth. That is what this race looked like when the announcement first happened however while his profile is much better than Coats he has run a horrible campaign. He was clearly not ready for statewide. Honestly even had he run an excellent one the national mood would have kept him down.  I take it as a slight comfort that Coats will probably serve at max two terms. Maybe he’ll even get bagged to death in 2016, but I doubt it. Chances are he will keep a low profile, be a solid R vote and get re-elected. I’m not sure what is next for Ellsworth, he could go for Congress or Senate next year or maybe even LG. I do not know what he will do. Any here is my predict.

Prediction

Coats-54%

Ellsworth -43%

Libeterian-3%

IN-01

Pete Visclosky disgusts me. He is corrupt and genuinely slimy if you get my drift. I have been hoping for a primary challenge for years but to no prevail. No one dare goes against him as it would be the last thing they ever did in politics. Yes this is one of “those district”. It would be nice for him to just retire and take a cozy lobbying job yet he loves Washington too much and has his job as long as he wants it. In fact the Washington Post declared him the safest Democratic Congressman. He is progressive enough (although the sleaze-ball voted against wall street regulation) however he is very corrupt. Trust me the day will come when his ways catches up to him and he is forced out in disgrace. He is pretty much guaranteed a 14th term to Congress though because the Republicans have yet again nominated a perennial candidate who has no chance of winning. He has ran in every race since 2002. So don’t expect a William Jefferson set of events to happen because trust me Mark Leyva is no Joseph Cao. I just hope next cycle he is booted out in the primary. This guy is an embarrassment and trust me a primary here would be the best thing possible for us. Still the area is so corrupt we would probably not get a whole lot better.  

Prediction

Visclosky-67%

Leyva-33%

(Not sure if there are any third parties running. If so give the Lib 2 and take one away from Visclosky and Leyva respectfully)

IN-02

Indiana’s second CD has a Republican tilt to it but I think Donnelly will win by a solid enough margin all the same. In 08 he garnered 70% of the vote. Republicans are smart! This year Republicans nominated a woman who actually goes by Wacky Jackie (although we just nominated Alvin freaking Greene so we probably shouldn’t talk). Wolarski is a state representative. Wolarski has run a decent campaign and do to the lean of the district it will be somewhat close. The most recent poll commissioned by Wish TV had Donnelly leading by five and Jackie’s internals supposedly has Donnelly leading by four.

Prediction

Donnelly-53%

Wolarski-47%

IN-03

I have never been fond of Mark Souder. He has always came off as an ass to me. During his time in Washington he always fought for family values, about as social of conservative as they come. Yeah Mark Souder resigned after admitting to having an affair with a staffer, who ironically made a tape with him about abstinence only sex ed. You are supposed to expect anything in Congress but I did not expect that. None the less I was glad he resigned because I was plain and simply glad to see him away from Washington. He had a somewhat close primary to a rich teabagging car dealer owner. However right after all of the affair shit broke and he resigned. So the Republicans chose a nominee at a convention of delegates. Not surprisingly they chose state senator Marlin Stutzman who ran a very impressive campaign against former Senator and lobbyist Dan Coats. Personally I think Stutzman would have been stronger than Coats but all the same this is a nice parting gift for Stutzman who defeated a hullabaloo of candidates at the convention. I have nothing against Stutzman, while I disagree with him ideology he seems like a nice guy and will be much better than Souder at any rate. We have a great candidate in the district and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Former city councilman Tom Hayhurst is running. Hayhurst was the nominee in 2006 and ran a great campaign. He is known for his fundraising ability. If this was 2006 or 2008 I would put this at lean D but Stutzman is too popular and the district too conservative. I know some say that the supporters of his convention opponents won’t show up but I don’t buy that argument, I just don’t.

Prediction

Stutzman-59%

Hayhurst-41%

IN-04

Steve Buyer does not actually have a squeaky clean reputation but I have never particularly disliked him all the same. He is not seeking re-election this year and do to his wife’s illness. I believe his involvement in the frontier education foundation probably contributed but I want to believe he is retiring solely to spend more time with his wife who is not in good condition health wise. Term limited Indiana SoS Todd Rokita jump at the chance of an upgrade. He also considered a potential Senate run but passed. Rokita is not that bad, while he will be a mostly conservative vote he really does seem reasonable like Dick Lugar, who is also conservative but still has an independent streak. We have no chance here come November. Some dude David Sanders is our nominee.

Prediction

Rokita-66%

Sanders-34%

IN-05

Republicans are so freaking stupid. I am not talking ideology here but pure horse race politics. Dan Burton is the most corrupt politician in the state. He is a royal douche who, I feel, is way out of touch with his district and reality. He is an avid golfer who has actually missed votes to golf with lobbyists and goes on expensive golfing trips. He was also avid on spreading the Vincent Foster conspiracy during Clinton’s days. He has been in Washington too long and everyone hates him and knows he is an ineffective legislature. He was a prime target to be primaried but no, the Republicans fucked it up. About a gazillion people jumped at the chance to knock him out. Had the number of challengers been knocked to single digits he would have lost. But no, name recognition got him a pathetic 30 percent of the vote, barely enough to squeak by former Republican Party chair Luke Messer. 70% of Republicans voted against this sleaze bag but no he still gets a 15th term. Republicans/Teabaggers get your shit together next time! We nominated a real life teabagger Democrat. Yes a teabagging Democrat. I know a lot of people have wondered if the baggers and everyone will unite behind the Democrat, well it ain’t going to happen. Crawford is not a politician and has no skill and while I would rather have a teabagging Democrat than Burton it is not going to happen. Maybe next year they will do it right or maybe Burton will even retire. This is one of those rare moments when teabaggers and Democrats share a same goal.  

Prediction

Burton-65%

Crawford-24%

Others-11%

IN-06

Mike Pence is a savvy politician who has a real future in politics. I wish he was a Democrat because believe me he has skill. I am willing to bet that his next term in Congress will be his last, especially. He will either run for Governor, Senate or President. The only thing that could get him to stay would be the possibility of being speaker someday but I highly doubt it happens. We have put up, once again, minister Barry Welsh. Barry is a good guy but does not have what it takes to make this race competitive.

Prediction

Pence- 72%

Welsh- 28%

IN-07

Andre Carson is the most progressive elected politician in Indiana. He is only the second Muslim currently in Congress. I really like him, though some do not. Carson won a special election back in 2008 when his grandmother, a really decent person and effective Congresswoman, passed away. He was elected to a full term by a large margin and will face perennial candidate Marvin Scott in November. Scott was the 2004 nominee for Senate against Evan Bayh, receiving 37% of the vote. He has ran for this seat several times, actually coming close in 1994. The district is fairly liberal but has some conservative areas to it. Carson actually faced a close election during his original run. He will survive though, no question. The latest Wish TV poll had him at 50 and Scott at 37.  

Prediction

Carson-57%

Scott-43%

IN-08

Brad Ellsworth is universally known and loved in Indiana’s eight congressional district, however he will not be running for Congress this year but will instead be running for US Senate. We got state representative Trent Van Haaften. Van Haaften is fairly popular.  Larry Buchson is the essence of generic R in my view. He won a very unimpressive primary win, much less than I had predicted. The Tea Party is not that fond of him, though they are not of Coats but they are sucking up to vote for him and will probably do the same for Buchson. The national parties have all packed up and left, polls (albeit internal) showing a Republican win here. Ellsworth will probably win here but will not provide coattails.

Prediction

Buchson- 58%

Van Haaften- 42%

IN-09

Baron Hill is my Congressman and I have the utmost respect for him. He has represented the district well and I have always been fond of him. His only “easy” election was last year when the Republicans nominated retread Mike Sodrel again. Sodrel originally ran in 2002 and was defeated yet he successfully ran in 2004 but was defeated again by Hill in 2006 and very soundly again in 2008. You would think he got the message but no, he once again ran this year and he came in third place in the Republican primary. The Republicans nominated Bloomington attorney Todd Young. Young is nothing special but is a step above lunatic Travis Hankins and Sodrel. I mean at least Young has a higher education than a high school diploma for one. Hill did one thing uber stupid though. During a town hall one of these Republican activist with a video camera bated the Congressman and got what she wanted with him telling her that it is his town hall and he makes the rules. He is referring to his ban of video camera’s but it did not look good. It was used in some attack ads but was not as much as I thought Young would use it. Like I said Hill has never really been given a free pass and this is shaping up to be a much more conservative year than he has faced in the past and the Republicans nominated someone much better than Sodrel. So it will certainly be no cake walk but Hill is used to tough elections and he knows how to handle himself. Hill has walked the district like he did in his legendary Senate run against Dan Coats. He has run the best campaign he has ever run in my view. He has been up on the air a lot and so have the DCCC. Though national parties have spent more against Hill he has still been up a lot. Oh and yes Hill has yet to trail in a poll against Young. Today, after much wait we have seen the first publicly released poll of this district showing Hill leading 46-44. Also reportedly Hill’s internals also have this a two point race. Hill has been running a progressive campaign, not hiding his votes on HCR or cap and trade. He boasted of these things during the debates. I have never been more proud and my gut says Hill survives, though I’ll admit it could go either way.

Prediction

Hill-49%

Young- 46%

Others-5%

IN SoS

Incumbent Secretary of State Todd Rokita is term limited. The Democrats nominated Vop Osili  over Tom McKenna for the job and the Republicans nominated Charlie White. White is the worst candidate the state Republicans have ever nominated. In fact he is currently under investigation and I have heard he may be forced to step down if he does win. Still no one cares about SoS. It is very low profile and he will get by do the R by his name.  Polls have him in the lead and he will likely win. Ugh.

White-53

Osili-45

Libetarian-2

Auditor and Treasurer

Berry and Mourdock are safe. They are both facing 28 year old first time candidates. Though I am highly impressed with Mourdock’s opponent who is a Rhodes Scholar. I will probably vote for Berry for Auditor. They will both win in the mid sixties.

IN State House

We were supposed to lose the state house last year but we managed to cling onto it. I do not think we will be as lucky this year. We have many competitive elections and not a lot in our favor. I am predicting we lose it. I am going to predict that the Republicans get 54 seats and we get 46. I hope I am wrong.

State Senate

The Republicans will have no problems retaining the state senate.

Please let me know what you think. I welcome all feedback, positive or not. I would especially like to hear from my fellow Indiana SSP users. Thanks!!!!

 

I have been tracking polls closely for 15 years, but I must confess I have never tracked House polling in great detail until this election.  So it was a real shock when I compared the tracking I was doing with some of the predictions about overall control of the House. This diary is going to do something I haven’t seen anywhere else: look at non-partisan polling and see what we actually know about the race for the House.

Before I get to the data, though, I want to make a couple of observations:

1. Most House races are never publically polled.  Since September 15th, 99 out of 435 races have had public polls.  Moreover, in more than half of these races, there has been only one public poll.  Of course, many races are never polled because they aren’t competitive, but in fact a large number of races that people like Cook rate have no public polling at all.

2.  This means most orecasters are relying on campaign polls to build their forecasts.  Cook has argued that these polls are more reliable than public polls, and he may be right.  One thing is for certain: basing your forecast on private polling by campaigns absolutely makes your forecast susceptible to spin.  Someone like Cook may be able to sort through that, but fundamentally forecasts of House races are based on far less data than Senate races.  

3.  Much of the reporting on House races has involved reporting on partisan polls.  Steve Singiser does that here.  Nate Silver reviewed these polls, and found “Polls with an explicit partisan affiliation are on average about 6 points friendlier to their candidate than those conducted by independent groups.”

Put another way: they are junk. But they are being treated as reliable in many places, including on the front page here.

So let’s get to the data.  You can access all of the data

here.

When I did the calculations last night I was shocked.  There are 41 seats within a week out!! AND THIS NUMBER IS ALMOST CERTAINLY TOO LOW. Because we don’t have data from all of the districts, don’t take this to mean the GOP at this moment isn’t leading in enough seats to take the house.  While the public data covers most of the competitive races, it by no means covers all of them.  There are ALSO districts that haven’t been polled because the GOP lead is presumed so large it isn’t worth it.

But what the data clearly shows is the House is still very much in play.  The GOP leads in many districts are far more tenuous than general reporting suggests.  Moreover, the data on the House is far thinner than most believe.

I am not going to sugar coat things, here.  Another metric I track shows the GOP in a very strong position (more about that later this week).   The average swing in House Polling since October 20th is 16.47%.  This implies a generic ballot of GOP +6 (since the Dems won the generic ballot in 2008 by 10.4%).  That is a huge swing, though nowhere close to what Gallup is finding.

You knew it was coming.

Over the past year, I’ve posted more voter models and projections than I can remember, and now, with less than one week to election night, I think I’m ready for some final analysis. Not once in my monthly projections have I projected a GOP take-over of the U.S. Senate, and that remains the case today. Some races have trended right (Wisconsin, Florida, Ohio), but the races which most matter to a take-over (Connecticut, Washington, Delaware) don’t appear poised to trade hands. In fact, as you’ll see in my forthcoming calculations, I think there are a number of under-the-radar races where the Democrat is poised to overperform. In some cases, big time. (Be prepared to catch your jaw when Iowa comes up.) Oh, and speaking of these calculations…I’ve opted to only include races where I foresee a winning margin of 20% or less. (Sorry, Christine.) Also, I’ve included third-party candidates when I foresee that vote garnering 3% or more.

So, with succinct exposition on the table, I say it’s time for some numbers…

D -> R FLIP:

North Dakota

Arkansas

Indiana

Colorado

Wisconsin

Pennsylvania

West Virginia

Post-midterm U.S. Senate composition: 52D/48R

Alaska

R – 44%

I – 37%

D – 19%

McAdams – 4/24/64 = 23%

Miller – 54/29/6 = 36%

Murkowski – 42/47/30 = 41%

Arkansas

D – 40%

R – 38%

I – 22%

Boozman – 18/98/65 = 58%

Lincoln – 82/2/35 = 42%

California

D – 43%

R – 34%

I – 23%

Boxer – 86/3/42 = 49%

Fiorina – 12/95/47 = 47%

Other – 2/2/11 = 4%

Colorado

R – 36%

D – 32%

I – 32%

Bennet – 8/89/48 = 46%

Buck – 92/11/52 = 54%

Connecticut

D – 44%

R – 32%

I – 24%

Blumenthal – 92/11/55 = 57%

McMahon – 8/89/45 = 43%

Florida

D – 38%

R – 38%

I – 24%

Crist – 33/14/49 = 30%

Meek – 59/2/14 = 26%

Rubio – 8/84/37 = 44%

Georgia

R – 41%

D – 40%

I – 19%

Isakson – 98/18/64 = 59%

Thurmond – 2/82/36 = 41%

Illinois

D – 47%

R – 34%

I – 19%

Giannoulias – 86/2/42 = 49%

Kirk – 12/96/49 = 48%

Other – 2/2/9 = 3%

Indiana

R – 46%

D – 38%

I – 16%

Coats – 92/14/55 = 56%

Ellsworth – 8/86/45 = 44%

Iowa

R – 38%

D – 37%

I – 25%

Conlin – 4/86/42 = 45%

Grassley – 96/14/58 = 55%

Kentucky

D – 47%

R – 43%

I – 10%

Conway – 86/8/41 = 47%

Paul – 14/92/59 = 53%

Louisiana

R – 45%

D – 43%

I – 12%

Melancon – 8/87/46 = 47%

Vitter – 92/13/54 = 53%

Missouri

D – 40%

R – 38%

I – 22%

Blunt – 8/96/57 = 52%

Carnahan – 92/4/43 = 48%

Nevada

D – 43%

R – 34%

I – 23%

Angle – 8/86/44 = 42%

Reid – 87/7/42 = 49%

Other – 2/4/5 = 3%

None – 3/3/9 = 6%

New Hampshire

I – 37%

R – 32%

D – 31%

Ayotte – 57/95/13 = 55%

Hodes – 43/5/87 = 45%

New York (B)

D – 50%

R – 30%

I – 20%

DioGuardi – 6/89/48 = 40%

Gillibrand – 94/11/52 = 60%

North Carolina

D – 44%

R – 37%

I – 19%

Burr – 14/94/56 = 52%

Marshall – 86/6/44 = 48%

Ohio

D – 42%

R – 36%

I – 22%

Fisher – 84/3/36 = 44%

Portman – 16/97/64 = 56%

Oregon

D – 38%

R – 33%

I – 29%

Huffman – 6/86/45 = 43%

Wyden – 94/14/55 = 57%

Pennsylvania

D – 46%

R – 42%

I – 12%

Sestak – 88/8/47 = 49%

Toomey – 12/92/53 = 51%

Washington

D – 36%

R – 32%

I – 32%

Murray – 92/6/49 = 51%

Rossi – 8/94/51 = 49%

West Virginia

D – 48%

R – 39%

I – 13%

Manchin – 84/8/48 = 49%

Raese – 16/92/52 = 51%

Wisconsin

D – 39%

R – 38%

I – 23%

Feingold – 89/4/44 = 47%

Johnson – 11/96/56 = 53%

***Voter models based on analysis of ’04-’08 CNN exit polling data + actual voter registration numbers + recent public polling data***

I’m gonna be quick on commentary for now, (got to get back to college work and quit fooling around with piddling little bits of politics), but I’ve been messing around with Colorado, reading bits on its politics and trends, and trying to make the best map possible for Democrats, (as they seem more likely than not to control the trifecta). After a few tries, this is what I came up with:

Sorry about the lack of numbers, an oversight on my part. As for political data, the only district I calculated was teh purple, the current version of John Salazar’s 3rd district. I managed to, if my vague guestimations and additions are right, to shift it a bit to the left, from 50-48 McCain, to 51.5-48.5, in Obama’s favor.

As for the rest, I lopped off the vast, 75% Republican rural areas from the 4th, instead making a diverse, Fort Collins-Greeley-Longmont-Thornton district that would certainly have a considerable Democratic lean, (getting bigger all the time), and that Betsy Markey would be a great fit for. (Red)

The 2nd, Green, changed a bit, and is perhaps a few points to the right of where it used to be, but it’s still safely in the Democratic corner, I even gave it a portion of the whiter, South Denver areas as well to add Democratic votes to it.

The 7th, Gray, takes in Commerce City, parts of Thornton, Lakewood, Wheat Ridge, Golden, Westminister, Brighton, heavily black portions of north Denver, and rural Weld and Adams counties plus conservative Morgan County. It’s very diverse, with a 30% hispanic population, and probably even more Democratic than it currently is.

The 1st, (blue), is maybe 6-10 points more Republican, but considering it gave Obama 75% to begin with, it can afford to lose a little. It’s got a large minority population; 49%, and is probably still very Democratic, in the 66-68% range.

Of the two Republican districts, the 5th, yellow, is about 57% McCain, and the 6th is now about 60-61% McCain.

Anyway, that’s what I came up with, sorry for the haste. I think it is a fairly logical example of what Democrats would do if they controlled the trifecta, even if, godforbid, Salazer and Markey don’t survive. It certainly makes its easier for them to make political comebacks in 2012.  

Here they are.  I am not predicting three-way races, just cuz I’m lazy.  So no FL-12, FL-Sen, MN-Gov, RI-Gov, AK-Sen, CO-Gov, MA-Gov, or ME-Gov, although I will predict winners.  

I’ll start with the Senate:

ND-Sen: Safe for Hoeven.  I’m not bothering with a percentage here.  Is he really that moderate? I’m predicting him more like Lindsey Graham, not George Voinovich.  Am I wrong?

OH-Sen: Safe for Portman.  He’ll score around sixty, incredible for an open race in a swing state.  But Fisher is truly that bad of a candidate.  Here’s hoping we never hear from him again in an election.

AZ-Sen: John McCain 59%  I think many moderates will be upset that he’s gone so far to the right, but of course, this is a red state in a red year with a longtime incumbent in what is really not an anti-incumbent election.

IA-Sen: Chuck Grassley 59%  Same thing as McCain, but a purple state rather than red.  However, no divisive primary.

LA-Sen: David Vitter 57%  Melancon just picked the wrong year.  I think he’d lose his house seat if he were running this year as well, or at least be awfully close.  Let’s get Vitter in 2016.  He is my least favorite non-John Ensign or Sam Brownback or Jim Inhofe senator.  Actually, he might be above all of those.

AR-Sen: John Boozman 57%  Blanche is so far gone.  Has anyone ever lost by this much for a Senate seat as a non-scandal plagued multi-term incumbent?  I’d be curious.  

NC-Sen: Richard Burr 56%  And the streak ends.  Marshall’s a weak candidate, as is Burr, but the GOP tide (about R+4) and the GOP lean of the state (about R+2) provides the margin.

IN-Sen: Dan Coats 56%  This is exactly the same situation as North Carolina, except Coats isn’t really an incumbent.

MO-Sen: Roy Blunt 54%   Blunt is a corrupt man who I hope will lose, but it won’t happen.  Carnahan is nothing new or exciting, but it’s the wrong year anyway.  

NH-Sen: Kelly Ayotte 53%  I think Ayotte is weaker than many realize, and Hodes could have done it in 2006 or 2008, and possibly even 2004.  Wrong year.

IL-Sen: Mark Kirk 52%  Remember, I’m just predicting their percentage of the two-party vote.  Kirk will not break 50, but his semi-moderation and faux-honesty, along with being pro-choice and Alexi’s personal scandals are enough to doom him here.  Sadly, Kirk gets this seat in November, not January, but at least no more Roland Burris.

PA-Sen: Pat Toomey 52%  I really wish that Sestak could win.  Toomey is so far right on many issues, and Sestak is a strong candidate whom I really admire for taking on Specter and defeating him.  I’m not sure what Sestak’s next move would be, as he’s still young.  Secretary of the Navy?

KY-Sen: Rand Paul 51%  I think the drug and unemployement issues will hurt Paul more than most suspect.  Aqua Buddha may hurt him a bit, but it makes me personally less supportive of Conway.  This one may even be a wider margin.

WI-Sen: Ron Johnson 51%  Johnson’s too conservative to get much more than 51% in a pale blue state.  Feingold ran a terrible campaign, which is too bad since he’s one of my favorite senators (Claire McCaskill is probably my absolute favorite, though.  I hope she runs for president in 2016 and wins).

Now to the Dem seats:

CO-Sen: Michael Bennet 51%  Buck’s latest socially conservative statements will hurt him in the Denver Suburbs, and Bennet better capitalize.  Buck’s too extreme to be in office from a purple state.

NV-Sen: Harry Reid 51%  I’m growing more nervous about this one every day, but I still think Harry can pull it out.  Angle seems desperate.  It’s amazing he’s going to win this seat, though.

WA-Sen: Patty Murray 52%  Dino can’t get over the hump, Patty’s not super popular, and so the natural lean of the state comes into play, about 5 points blue minus 4 points for wave year plus 1 point for Dino being Dino.

CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer 53%  I’m going to make calls for her this weekend, but I really think she has it in the bag.  I don’t wanna risk a Senator Fiorina, however.  How anyone can support Carly’s CEO record is incredible; everyone I know whose parents worked at HP in that time (and I have many of those friends, due to where I live) have entire families that despise her.

WV-Sen: Joe Manchin 54%  Raese is too conservative even for West Virginia in a red year, which is saying something.  Oh yeah, he’s also an arrogant jerk.  I hope Manchin becomes a Pryor, not a Nelson.

CT-Sen: Dick Blumenthal 56%  I thought he was dead after the Vietnam comments, but he’s turned it around, and McMahon is deeply flawed.  I love how Jewish the CT Senators’ names sound, it’s almost stereotypical 😛

NY-Sen: Kirsten Gillibrand 57%  Gillibrand’s against a legitimate candidate, but she’s strong and has heavy coattails.  She’ll be in this seat for a long time, I believe, if she doesn’t run for President at some point.

OR-Sen: Ron Wyden 58%  I met him and he offered me an internship.  He’s hilarious, has a funny voice, and is extremely tall.  Oh, yeah, he’s also one of my favorite senators, and I LOVED his health care plan.  He’s also safe.

I believe DE-Sen is safe.

Now to the Governors:

Safe R: Mary Fallin, Bill Haslam, Matt Mead

Kansas: Sam Brownback 59% Brownback is very conservative even for Kansas, and with a popular Democrat leaving office, I don’t think he can break 60.  But it will be close.

Alaska: Sean Parnell 58% I’m not sure why he’s not doing better.  But he isn’t, and polls say he’s up around this amount.

Arizona: Jan Brewer 57% An old lady who doesn’t know how to do debates, but is creaming Goddard due to the year.  I think Hispanic turnout will still be low, and I’m not really sure that many of them are virently pro-illegal immigration.  It’s some people taking a shortcut while the Hispanic voters had to wait to enter the country.  But I digress, Brewer’s safe.

Michigan: Rick Snyder 56%  I personally like Snyder.  He seems like a technocrat, and I’d vote for him over Dillon.  I like Bernero better than either, but Bernero can’t win in a year like this against a legitimate moderate like Snyder.  Oh, and Granholm’s super unpopular.

Pennsylvania: Tom Corbett 56%  The eight-year cycle continues.  Onorato isn’t inspiring, and Democrats need inspiring this year.

South Carolina: Nikki Haley 55%  Haley’s ties to Sanford and her tea party alliances are drawing ire from the local CoC against a Blue Dog Sheheen.  But it’s South Carolina guys, come on.  She’ll win it.  Another Indian-American governor for a deep south state.  Who would have thought?

Iowa: Terry Branstad 55%  Culver has closed by a few points in the last couple weeks, but it’s not enough.  He’s very unpopular, and Branstad is well-liked.

New Mexico: Susana Martinez 55%  Denish has slowly collapsed over the last 3 months, and I think this could go even lower for her.  Richardson’s loathed, Martinez is Hispanic, it all works out right for the GOP this year.

Georgia: Nathan Deal 54%  I really wish Karen Handel had won the primary.  Knowing that Barnes would have lost either way, at least Handel’s not a corrupt scumbag.  I sure can’t say that about Shady Deal (has that nickname been used before?)

Wisconsin: Scott Walker 54%  I don’t think we’re going to win governorships of any swing state but New Hampshire and Oregon this year.  Wisconsin’s swung hard right, and Walker seems popular and sane.

Texas: Rick Perry 53%  This is a bit low for many people, but I think all the newspaper endorsements and poor media coverage will lower his percent a bit.  He’ll still win, but White’s put up a strong fight.  I hope he runs for Senate in 2012.

Nevada: Brian Sandoval 53%  Rory Reid’s slowly catching up, but I really don’t think he can win.  And certainly not with this little time.

Florida: Rick Scott 50%  It’s recount time in Florida again!!!  Sink’s debate thing really may cost her, although how Florida could vote for a crook, I don’t know.  If the parties were flipped, I’d be a Sink supporter still, or at least just not vote.

Illiinois: Bill Brady 50%  I think Chicago will help close this one; Brady is much more extreme than Kirk, and we may have a recount here as well.  Illinois’s Dems really did a TERRIBLE job in the primary, but they only have themselves to blame for that.

Ohio: John Kasich 51%  Strickland’s keeping it close, which is very impressive, but Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are the Dems’ worst non-red states this year.  

Vermont: Peter Shumlin 52%  I think the PVI will let Shumlin narrowly take this one.  Vermont and Delaware will now be the only states with Jewish governors, I believe, amazing considering there are nearly a dozen senators.

Oregon: John Kitzhaber 52%  My native Oregonian father is confused how Dudley’s still in this, and so am I.  But I don’t think Dudley can pull it out.

Connecticut: Dan Malloy 53%  Another Democratic pickup.  I really know nothing about Malloy; why do people think he’s presidential material?

California: Jerry Brown 54%  I really like Jerry.  He’s funny, progressive, quirky, not beholden to the unions like many state senators, and oh yeah, NOT TRYING TO BUY THE ELECTION.  He better win 🙂

Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie 55%  It’s closer than I expected, and it might be due to race, but Abercrombie should take this pretty easily still.

Maryland: Martin O’Malley 55%  He’s remained strong through a tough economy and anti-Dem tide.  Could he someday replace Mikulski?

New Hampshire: John Lynch 57%  Lynch is very well-liked.  

Arkansas: Mike Beebe 58%  This is a great result, for Arkansas.  But Beebe may be one of the last Democratic governors of the state in the near future.  

New York: Andrew Cuomo 59%  I think people are THAT angry in New York, and Cuomo is really blah and uninspiring.  But he is up against Paladino, so the margin could be higher.