Month: April 2007

(From the diaries with minor editing. Should Brad Miller take the plunge and challenge Dole next year? – promoted by James L.)

Cross posted from Dailykos

On the heels of a quick scoop in the Charlotte Observer last night was a full length article in the Raleigh News & Observer this morning.  That story centered around Rep. Brad Miller (D) contemplating a run against Elizabeth Dole.

“I’m at least going to talk to folks in North Carolina and get a sense of what people are thinking,” Miller said Wednesday.

Following that, Public Policy Polling has released a matchup poll.

TO THE RESULTS!
Dole 44%
Miller 33%
Undecided 22%

Dole’s Job Approval numbers?
43 Approve
40 Dissaprove
Now with crosstabs (PDF!)
Numbers that can only improve:
Amongst Democrats Brad leads 48 to 26 with 26 undecided.  Considering Liddy’s -20 approval rating amongst Dems, this number should shoot up very quickly.
30% of African Americans are currently undecided, and 26% say Dole.  If Brad cant get above 75-90% support by election time I will literally eat my shoe.

Numbers that are already strong:
Dole is as about as high as can be expected amongst Republicans.  70-15.  She wont get much of a boost from her base.
Brad already leads amongst independents, 38-33

As for Brad, and his big decision:
Brad is enjoying his time in the US House, so this is a difficult decision for him:

“There is plenty enough for me to say grace over,” Miller said. “But there is no doubt it would offer a chance to be more involved in more issues.”

However, he had this to say:

“I don’t think it will be an easy race for anybody,” Miller said. “I think a Democrat can win that race. I think the advantage I’d have — and any Democrat would have — is I will never have to be briefed on which state I represent in the Senate.“

Later in the article, Senator Dole’s strategist had this to say: “When you have someone like Senator Dole, who enjoys broad popularity”  Oh really?  Im just gonna post a few tiny little “anecdotes” now:
In January she was at 36 approve and 36 dissaprove
In a February poll, she was up to 43 approve and 31 dissaprove.
In a DSCC poll she managed a lofty 49 approve to 46 dissaprove rating, which was matched by her reelect numbers:

Looking ahead to the next election for U.S. senator, will you vote to reelect Elizabeth Dole, consider voting for someone else, or vote to replace Elizabeth Dole with someone new?
Reelect Dole 35%
Consider someone else 26%
Replace 23%
Depends 9%
Not sure 7%

So, what can you do to turn up the heat?
You can give money here. 
You can contact the DSCC and ask them to help Brad! 
And, you can contat Brad by emailing: brad (at) bradmiller (dot) org

This is an issue where the public is clearly on our side. So the bill came up today and it was 63-34, with Landrieu, Johnson, and Dodd not voting, so basically it was a 66-34 vote. We were just 1 vote away from getting the numbers to override Bush’s veto.

The opponents were 32 Republicans and 2 Dems(Casey and Ben Nelson). 14 of the 21 GOP Senators who are up for re-election in 08 voted against this. Those being Allard(retiring), Chambliss, Coleman, Cornyn, Craig, Dole, Domenici, Graham, Hagel, Inhofe, McConell, Roberts, Sessions and Sununu.

Coleman and Sununu’s names are obviously the two big ones their as their opponents will almost surely use this against them. Dole, and perhaps Cornyn, Craig, and Inhofe are also people who could face competitive elections and their opponents may be able to gain traction using this issue. Also who could forget Ron Sparks as this would be a good issue to use against Sessions.

Also, one thing I just realized is that Frist supported this legislation and his successor, Corker didn’t. Wow, I can’t believe that in one way I actually wish Frist was still in the senate.

Drop everything!  Alabama Commissioner of Agriculture Ron Sparks, a potential challenger to Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions, is liveblogging on DailyKos right now.  Drop by and ask him a question while you can!

Crossposted at Daily Kingfish, a Louisiana politics blog by and for Louisiana Democrats

Even though the full results have been made available to the media, the Louisiana GOP refuses to read and to acknowledge a Verne Kennedy poll commissioned by John Georges, Republican candidate for Governor from Metairie.  The poll of 600 Louisianans conducted 29 March through 3 April yielded some interesting results.  According to the Shreveport Times,

When the poll concentrated only on Jindal, Breaux and Georges, the responses to the question about which candidate the respondent would chose if the election were today were 39 percent for Jindal, 30 percent for Breaux and 14 percent for Georges, with 17 percent uncertain.

And they continue,

In the trial heat between Jindal and Breaux, 49 percent chose Jindal and 36 percent Breaux, with 15 percent undecided.

Jindal and the Louisiana GOP thought Jindal would coast to the Governor’s mansion in October.  Jindal has been campaigning throughout the state for months, including making appearances and offering “testimony” in Baptist churches, and the Louisiana GOP daily demonizes every candidate who has announced an intention to run, whether it be Walter Boasso (R-Arabi), John Breaux (D-Crowley) or John Georges, who Roger Villere, Chairman of the Louisiana GOP, calls an “opponent.”  Given all this effort on behalf of Jindal by the Louisiana GOP, one would expect Jindal to be a prohibitive favorite, not a mere favorite, especially since Jindal has been behaving as if he is the heir apparent since Blanco announced her intention to not run for reelection.  49%, in other words, is a weak number for someone who is treated as an incumbent both by the media and by his political party.

The following should also serve as a source of aggravation for an already splenetic Louisiana GOP, especially as Breaux, Campbell, Boasso and Georges are yet to engage in full campaigning:

In a trial heat for governor, when voters were read a list of all possible candidates for governor, the preferences were 39 percent for Jindal, 23 percent for Breaux, 10 percent for Georges, 5 percent for Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu, 4 percent for state Treasurer John Kennedy, 2 percent for Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell and 1 percent each for state Sen. Walter Boasso and former Attorney General Richard Ieyoub.

Perhaps 39 percent is the highest Jindal can earn with the present field of candidates in the jungle primary.  Yes, Mitch Landrieu, Richard Ieyoub and John Kennedy have not announced and will not announce, but I doubt supporters of John Kennedy and especially Mitch Landrieu and Richard Ieyoub will cast their votes for Jindal.  And I imagine Foster Campbell, Walter Boasso, John Georges and John Breaux will expand their bases once they launch their respective campaigns.  After all, Breaux has not officially announced, and John Georges, who hails fom Jinda’s Congressional district, will, according to politicsla.com, which requires a subscription,

emphasize his similarities on economic and social issues with Republican frontrunner Congressman Bobby Jindal before drawing distinctions in background and ability. “In July, people will look at that and say, ‘He’s just like Bobby.’ Then we will differentiate,” he said.
For instance: “The difference between Bobby and me is I am a decision maker while he is a policy maker,” he said. “Jindal suffers from the same problem Kathleen Blanco does. He waits to see which way the wind is blowing.”

Boasso will chip away at Jindal’s Republican base from the other end, the end of the reformer, the populist.  Here is Boasso’s message:

“It’s the same old people trying to control things,” he said. “They put it out into the public that it was a big consensus. That’s misleading.

“The days when these small groups of insiders determine our future has got to come to an end.”

And Boasso and Georges, both millionaires, will have the money to communicate their respective messages.

Jindal will not have much room to manoeuvre once Boasso and Georges introduce themselves to the public.  Moreover, Foster Campbell (D-Bossier City), former state Senator and current Public Service Commissioner for north Louisiana, will mobilize northern Louisianans and others disenchanted with utility companies and oil interests.  And complicating this is the base Breaux already has despite the Louisiana GOPs coordinated smear campaign, which includes letters to the editors of The Shreveport Times and  The Ouchita Citizen, biased journalism by sympathetic reports, a website and a redundant television ad airing throughout the state of Louisiana. 

Piyush “Bobby” may have to accept the 39% of Verne Kennedy’s poll, which probably explains why Roger Villere is now telling reporters he wants to abolish the jungle primary for state races.  If you cannot force everyone out of the field in the name of a Jindal victory, then I guess the only option left is to change the election process.  Why do Jindal and Villere have such contempt for Louisiana voters and for Louisiana election law?

From our new-and-already-good friends down at the Alabama Democratic Party comes word of a Rudy gaffe that showcases how spectacularly out-of-touch the man is. Via the AP:

But when asked about more mundane matters – like the price of some basic staples – Giuliani had trouble with a reporter’s question.

“A gallon of milk is probably about a $1.50, a loaf of bread about a $1.25, $1.30,” he said.

A check of the Web site for D’Agostino supermarket on Manhattan’s Upper East Side showed a gallon of milk priced at $4.19 and a loaf of white bread at $2.99 to $3.39. In Montgomery, Ala., a gallon of milk goes for about $3.39 and bread is about $2.

And this isn’t tucked away at the bottom of the story – the headline is “Republican candidate off the mark on cost of milk, bread.” Ouch. They even bring up one of my favorite all-time gaffes: that wonderful time when George Bush père was mesmerized by a supermarket checkout scanner. Ah, those were the days.

Of course, to us New Yorkers, this comes as no surprise. Rudy Giuliani doesn’t even know how long it takes to wait for a streetlight to turn green – his body men would stop traffic at every corner so that His Highness could stroll by without having to tarry like the rest of us plebes, on those rare occasions he deigned to dirty the soles of his shoes on city sidewalks. Let’s just put it this way: Rudy is no man of the people.

And turning back to that classic Bush-41 moment, there’s no question it helped cement his image as a clueless, distant old man who wasn’t in tune with America. I still remember him trying to connect with a college crowd once, declaring that Al Gore was “way out, far out, man”  – and of course managing to sound like the world’s oldest, uncoolest hippie. Even fifteen years later, it still makes me cringe.

Now, with GHWB, the checkout scanner incident fit neatly, almost perfectly, into a pre-existing narrative about the guy. That narrative doesn’t exist yet with Giuliani, but even if a gaffe like this doesn’t serve as a “defining moment,” it can certainly help in the creation of a new narrative.  And when it comes to Giuliani, branding him as out-of-touch would indeed be accurate to a T.

[Cross-posted at my blog, Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

The Albuquerque Tribune just came out with an article on Pajamas Pete Domenici’s Q1 fundraising.  Domenici raised a seemingly meager $393,000 for Q1.  It looks meager given that Domenici is a long-time incumbent and former Chair of a powerful committee.  The article elucidates:

Domenici’s total is dwarfed by what was spent on most Senate races in 2006 but is comparable to what Sen. Jeff Bingaman, a Silver City Democrat, raised and spent on the way to an easy victory over Allen McCulloch of Farmington last year.

Bingaman raised about $230,000 in the first quarter of 2005 and had $556,000 in cash on hand at the end of the period. He wound up spending about $3.3 million. Domenici spent about $4.6 million on his last re-election race in 2002.

Bingaman spent $3.3 million to beat his opponent 71-29 last year.  In 2002, Domenici spent $4.6 million and only beat his opponent 65-35, a drubbing to be sure, but a smaller margin than Bingaman’s victory and at a 40% higher price.

So, Domenici is on a correct fundraising pace, if he just wants to raise the same $3 to $5 million for a cake-walk run.

(More below the fold.)

Keep in mind that his physical health, and some have suggested his mental health, are giving away.  And he has that pesky Senate Ethics investigation looming over his head.

If a top-tier challenger ran against Domenici, he would have to raise maybe $8 to $10 million, probably double what he originally expected.  And he’d have to debate and hustle and endure the rigors of a tough campaign.  And, all this, again, while the Senate Ethics investigation loomed over him.  With all that to consider, if a top-tier candidate entered the race, I think Domenici, who turns 75 next month, would opt for retirement.

But that candidate would have to enter the race soon, to force Domenici to a decision.  As I’ve suggested before, Democratic Congressman Tom Udall is probably the strongest option, with Lt. Gov. Diane Denish keeping her eye on the Governor’s office and former state AG Patricia Madrid having just narrowly lost to Heather Wilson and (however unfairly) being tangentially connected to the scandal that plagues Domenici.

If Tom Udall entered the race now, he could force Domenici to retire and have a not-too-difficult run against far-right-winger Steve Pearce or an even less-prominent Republican opponent.  But Udall would have to get in soon.  With all of the draft movements cropping up, I’d sure like to see one get started for Tom Udall.

(From the diaries with minor edits. – promoted by James L.)

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP, Daily Kos and MyDD.

Rumors of Democrats getting ready to take on Heather Wilson for her seat in Congress have been floating around since November.

Clearly, whichever Democrat goes against Wilson will have money behind him or her (more on that below).  So who is stepping up to the plate?  State Rep. Al Park?  State Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino?  Former Albuquerque City Councilman Eric Griego?  Nope.

First up, we have the potential rock star of the group, Albuquerque City Council President Martin Heinrich.  Heinrich is popular, young, and a favorite of progressives.  Not to mention that he has his own website, which is always a plus for a blogger.

Joe Monahan reports he was told by Heinrich Monday, “Heinrich may try to clear the field and announce his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for the congressional seat held by Republican Heather Wilson within the next several weeks.”

So who would he be clearing from the field?  Besides the aforementioned names, maybe Rick Homans.  So who exactly is Rick Homans?

Currently, Homans is the New Mexico Economic Development Secretary.  He also ran for mayor in 2001… where he finished fifth behind current Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, former Bernalillo County District Attorney Bob Schwartz, the at-the-time incumbent Jim Baca and city Councilor Mike McEntee. 

And according to a source of Heath Haussamen, he is considering a run for Congress.  Most significantly, the source told Haussamen “Gov. Bill Richardson has pledged to support Homans in a Democratic primary.”

But if Heinrich steps into the race, not many (if any) Democrats would stand a chance in a primary against the city council President.

It’s about time local area Democrats stepped up to the plate to take on Wilson.  Having quotes from potential challengers about her fauxs pas from here to election day would build a nice narrative in the minds of undecided voters. 

Even better, they could start raising money to take on the inevitable large warchest Wilson will raise to try to save her job.  And they will have support from the DCCC.

After all, Wilson’s seat is perennially a target for Democrats, and the DCCC began attacking her for her controversial phone call to former US Attorney David Iglesias.  Iglesias was subsequently fired, and believes it was due to political pressure from Wilson and Sen. Pete Domenici.

The DCCC has also started a website called the Heather Wilson Watch to keep tabs on Heather Wilson.  This is similar to the now defunct Washington Wilson Watch run by the Patricia Madrid campaign.  Currently, HWW is just dedicated to her role in the Iglesias firing; but it can easily be expanded to show her stances on many issues.

From a New York 1 poll:

In the General Election, New York remains a blue state with either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee. Hillary beats Rudy Giuliani by 14 points and John McCain by 16 points. Barack Obama beats Rudy Giuliani statewide by 6 points and defeats John McCain by 15 points.

Obama beating Giuliani is the most interesting thing to me. This deflates the notion that Rudy might carry New York State, especially when you consider that Hillary beats Obama 49-17 in a primary matchup. In other words, a Dem with low support among Dems (Obama) can still beat Saint Rudy.

There’s also this bit:

Mayor Michael Bloomberg is considered unlikely to enter the presidential race if the other formidable New Yorkers are the eventual nominees of their parties, and at 14% he hardly makes a dent in the support of either Hillary Clinton (46%) or Rudy Giuliani (32%) in a 3-way contest, and takes equally from both.

It’s that last line which jumps out at me, seeing as some recent polls have been touted showing Bloomberg pulling almost entirely from the GOP. However, there may be a local effect here, given that many NYC Democrats have gotten accustomed to pulling the lever for Bloomberg. Dems elsewhere might not be so inclined.

METHODOLOGY

This poll was conducted from April 4 through April 7, 2007, among 1,013 New York State registered voters, including 496 registered Democratic voters (with a margin of error of +/-4.5%); 274 registered Republicans (with a margin of error of +/-6%) and 500 New York City registered voters (with a margin of error of +/-4.5%).

With the 50 State page in a temporary? (please come back 50 State Page hint hint Barry Welsh) hiatus I figured a candidate update was in order. Yes I know it is WAAAAYYYY early in the 2008 cycle but the sooner House candidates get in the field the better.

And the news on the filing front is great, courtesy of the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

Below the fold for all the news.
(cross posted at MyDD and Daily Kos)

2 1/2 months ago I diaried about the fact that we had 248 Races Filled.

This of course included 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters (yeh yeh I know some will not run but I am assuming we will find candidates in those districts!)

Now some 10 weeks later we have 40 Republican districts filled for a grand total of 273 districts filled.

***Remember that a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running.***

Remember also that I am not commenting on the quality of each or any candidate merely that they are out and about.

So without further ado:
1) GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AZ-01,
AZ-02,
AR-03,
CA-04,
CA-41, [In the event of a special election but he will run in 2008 methinks!]
CA-48,
FL-01,
FL-09,
FL-13, [Either through the House of Reps investigation or Jennings has committed to another run.]
FL-21,
FL-25,
GA-10 [SPECIAL ELECTION JUNE 19TH],
ID-01,
IL-10,
IL-14,
IN-06,
IA-04,
IA-05,
MI-07,
MN-06,
MO-09,
NE-02,
NV-03,
NJ-11,
NM-02,
NY-25,
NY-29,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-07,
OH-15,
OH-16,
PA-03,
PA-15,
TX-04,
TX-08,
TX-13,
VA-06,
WA-08,
WI-01,

2) The following 2 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
NJ-05,
NJ-07,

3) We also have the following 37 GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-01,
AL-04,
AK-AL,
AZ-03,
AZ-06,
CA-03,
CA-42,
CA-45,
CO-04,
CT-04,
DE-AL,
FL-06,
FL-12,
KY-05,
MI-09,
MN-02,
MO-06,
MT-AL,
NE-03,
NJ-02,
NJ-03,
NJ-04,
NM-01,
NY-03,
NY-13,
NY-26,
OH-01,
OH-02,
PA-06,
PA-18,
TN-07,
TX-02,
TX-03,
TX-06,
TX-14,
UT-03,
VA-11,

4) And last but not least the following 123 districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-02,
AL-03,
AL-06,
CA-02,
CA-19,
CA-21,
CA-22,
CA-24,
CA-25,
CA-26,
CA-40,
CA-44,
CA-46,
CA-49,
CA-50,
CA-52,
CO-05,
CO-06,
FL-04,
FL-05,
FL-07,
FL-08,
FL-10,
FL-14,
FL-15,
FL-18,
FL-24,
GA-01,
GA-03,
GA-06,
GA-07,
GA-09,
GA-11,
ID-02,
IL-06,
IL-11,
IL-13,
IL-15,
IL-16,
IL-18,
IL-19,
IN-03,
IN-04,
IN-05,
KS-01,
KS-04,
KY-01,
KY-02,
KY-04,
LA-01,
LA-04,
LA-05,
LA-06,
LA-07,
MD-01,
MD-06,
MI-02,
MI-03,
MI-04,
MI-06,
MI-08,
MI-10,
MI-11,
MI-12,
MN-03,
MS-01,
MS-03,
MO-02,
MO-07,
MO-08,
NE-02,
NV-02,
NY-23,
NC-03,
NC-05,
NC-06,
NC-10,
OH-03,
OH-04,
OH-05,
OH-08,
OH-12,
OH-14,
OK-01,
OK-03,
OK-04,
OK-05,
OR-02,
PA-05,
PA-09,
PA-16,
PA-19,
SC-01,
SC-02,
SC-03,
SC-04,
TN-01,
TN-02,
TN-03,
TX-01,
TX-05,
TX-10,
TX-11,
TX-12,
TX-19,
TX-21,
TX-24,
TX-26,
TX-31,
TX-32,
UT-01,
VA-01,
VA-02,
VA-04,
VA-05,
VA-07,
VA-10,
WA-04,
WA-05,
WV-02,
WI-05,
WI-06,
WY-AL,

Now obviously there is a long way to go and it is very early in the cycle but this is an impressive start!

While there has been talk for a while that Gordon Smith may face a challenge from the right, it now appears there is a name attached to that prospect. The Associated Press is reporting that anti-tax activist and form gubernatorial candidate Bill Sizemore is considering doing a little bit of our work for us.

National Democrats have made it plain that one of their top targets in the 2008 Senate election will be Oregon Republican Sen. Gordon Smith, who has been reaching out more to moderate voters of late.

But Smith also could face potential trouble within his own party at home.

There are rumors that Smith might draw a primary challenge from the party’s right wing. A national group that promotes fiscal conservatism is making noises about possibly bankrolling such an effort.

A GOP primary challenge could force Smith — who has broken with President Bush and the Republican Party on Iraq and other issues — to veer more to the right, which could harm his chances in a state that’s trending more blue….

Anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore, who was trounced when he ran against then-Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber in 1998, said recently that he’s giving thought to possibly taking on Smith.

Oh please please please run, Bill. If he does, Peter DeFazio or any other candidate can sit back while Smith has to fend off this challenge from his right. If there is anything you can do to egg Sizemore, feel free to do so. 😉