Tag: NC

So I decided to have a look at how my state’s congressional districts could be redistricted come 2010. It looks like we’ll miss getting a 14th seat by about 100k people (so close…), so I had to make a plan with 13 seats. This was interesting because based on the 2008 census estimates, each seat would have over 700,000 people

In NC, redistricting is done solely by the legislature, which is now under Democratic control. While it could hypothetically shift to the GOP in 2010, our numbers are good enough that that would be unlikely.

I focused mainly on protecting the 8 Democratic incumbents (espescially Kissell and Shuler), seeing as the 5 districts still in GOP hands are pretty Republican for the most part.

Here is my map:

1st District – G.K. Butterfield (D-Wilson). This is a solidly Democratic, black majority district that covers much of northeastern North Carolina. I didn’t make many big changes to this district, mostly because it was hard to pinpoint specific black areas and how much the black populations there have changed.

2nd District – Bob Etheridge (D-Lillington). This mainly rural district narrowly went for Obama after voting for Bush in 2000 and 2004. I added more black areas in Wake County to make it somewhat more Democratic and moved some Republican parts of Johnston County to the nearby 3rd district. Etheridge has been elected 7 times so he is probably safe here.

3rd District – Walter Jones (R-Farmville). This is a solidly Republican coastal district where Obama got only 37% of the vote, and Jones is fairly popular so I didn’t change very much, Just for kicks, I drew Jones’ home into the 1st district, but he can still run in the 3rd.

4th District – David Price (D-Chapel Hill). This rapidly growing district includes much of the Triangle and RTP. Obama won 62% here mainly thanks to Durham and Orange counties. I transferred some of the populous Wake County parts of this district to the 13th and 2nd districts to make them more Democratic.

5th District – Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk). This is GOP country. It would have been a challenge to make this district more Democratic without harming some of the neighboring districts. The 5th lost Democratic Watauga County, but I added Republican parts of Guilford County (Greensboro) from the 6th district and most of Rockingham County from the 13th district.

6th District – Howard Coble (R-Greensboro). Coble is NC’s longest serving congressman, first elected in 1984. I kept his Republican district mostly the same but gave some of his Guilford territory to Virginia Foxx. Coble will keep his job for as long as he wants.

7th District – Mike McIntyre (D-Lumberton). This district went for McCain by 6 points, but on the state and local level it is mostly Democratic. I added some more areas in Sampson County but didn’t change very much. McIntyre is a conservative Blue Dog who matches his district well and the 7th has only had 3 congressmen in the the last 50 years, so he is safe.

8th District – Larry Kissell (D-Biscoe). After narrowly losing to Robin Hayes in 2006, Kissell finally defeated him in 2008, while Obama won the district by 8 points. To make it more Democratic, I gave parts of Republican-leaning Union County (Jesse Helms grew up there) to Sue Myrick’s 9th district. In return, the 8th picked up some Democratic urban areas of Charlotte from the 9th.

9th District – Sue Myrick (R-Charlotte). This district is made up of the Republican-leaning suburbs of Charlotte and it has been held by former Myrick since 1995. McCain won the 9th by 10 points and Myrick will be safe for a long time. In addition to trading urban areas of Charlotte with Republican parts of the 8th district, I put all of Gaston County into the 9th district (I will explain).

10th District – Patrick McHenry (R-Cherryville). This is the granddaddy of GOP districts in NC and has been in Republican hands since 1969. I took in all of Rutherford and McDowell counties from Heath Shuler’s 11th district. I also drew McHenry’s lifelong Gaston County home into the 9th just to annoy him 🙂

11th District – Heath Shuler (D-Waynesville). I gave McHenry Rutherford and McDowell counties, but in return I took in Mitchell and Avery counties from the 10th. I added Democratic trending Watauga County (App State) to Shuler’s district to make it more Democratic.

12th District – Mel Watt (D-Charlotte). This is the infamous 12th district, which has been declared unconstitutional 3 different times. It’s a black plurality, very Democratic district that follows the I-85 corridor. I didn’t make many changes, mainly because I didn’t know much about the specific racial concentrations within each county.

13th District – Brad Miller (D-Raleigh). After narrowly going for Bush in 2000 and then Kerry in 2004, this district gave Obama a whopping 58% of the vote in 2008. It was gerrymandered by then State Sen. Brad Miller 2001 to elect him when NC gained a 13th seat in 2000. I made it more Democratic by adding some urban areas of Wake County. Miller will be safe until he decides to move up to higher office.

Please let me know what you think and if there are any changes or improvements that I can make.

Thanks and enjoy!

This year, NC voters were confronted witha Republican ticket headed up by a 72 year old white man running for President and a 72 year old white woman running for the US Senate.  I guess they call that diversity but it was pretty indicative of the seven incumbents (plus McCain)

Republicans running for Federal office in North Carolina (I’m excluding Sarah Pallin as she was essentially a tag a long).

The Congressional loser for the Republicans was 63 year old Robin Hayes.  Hayes was bested by 57 year old Democrat Larry Kissell.  That’s part of the story as 47 year old Barack Obama and 55 year old Kay Hagan whipped the aging Dole and McCain, each 72.

The Congressional winners for NC Republicans included 77 year old Howard Coble, 67 year old Sue Myrick, and two 65 year olds in Walter Jones and Virginia Foxx.  Foxx looks a good deal older than her age having the traditional old grandma look.  Only Patrick McHenry, 33, is younger than the traditional retirement age and even he got an age “Schock.”  McHenry is no longer the youngest House member being badly overtaken by 26 year old wunderkid/brat Aaron Schock of Illinois.

By contrast, two North Carolina Democrats are also clearly agingin 68 year old David Price and 67 year old Bob Etheridge.  GK Butterfield is getting there at 61.  and so is Mel Watt at 63.  Larry Kissell (57), Brad Miller, Mike McIntyre (52) and Kay Hagan (55) are in what would seem prime age for a legislator.  Heath Shuler at 36 is still young and hardly has the ambitious brat reputation of McHenry.

Makes one think of the two curmudgeons from Alaska (Don Young (73?) and Ted Stevens (84).

(SSP management note: The original diary title was a bit inflammatory and misleading — I edited it to tone it down a notch. I think we need to take a chill pill here for a moment.)

just breaking — this could really f-up our chances in NC…

from politico…

The husband of North Carolina Democratic Senate hopeful Kay Hagan is a lifelong member of an exclusive country club that didn’t admit its first black member until 1995, Hagan’s campaign disclosed Tuesday.

Charles “Chip” Hagan III, a businessman and former Democratic county leader, “supported opening up membership” at the 1,000-member Greensboro Country Club – but remained a member for years despite his opposition to the club’s de facto segregation policy, Hagan spokeswoman Colleen Flanagan told Politico.

Kay Hagan, who is counting on strong support among North Carolina’s black Democrats to unseat Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole, has never been a member of the club herself, Flanagan added.

“Chip supported broadening the membership to include African Americans and others,” she said. “Though it took longer than it should have, Greensboro County Club fully desegregated in 1995 and remains so today.”

Hagan, a state senator and niece of former Florida Sen. Lawton Chiles, leads Dole by one to three points in a race that is one of the most bitterly fought in the country.  

http://www.wral.com/news/local…

Democrats have a 31-19 majority in the North Carolina State Senate. Democrats have controlled the Senate for an amazing 130 consecuative years.  Could this be the year that changes?

John Davis, the former president of NCFREE, a non-partisan political research business association, has been tracking legislative races for 23 years. This year, he said, eight Democratic seats are vulnerable, which could shift the balance of power in the chamber.

“If you look at all the competitive districts, most are Republican-leaning held by Democrats,” Davis said. “There’s actually the possibility that Republicans could take over the Senate.”

In addition to the Republican-leaning districts in western North Carolina, some of the incumbents face legal and public relations problems, Davis said.

Not surprisingly, both parties are confident of winning control.

Considering the heavy voter registration in NC this year, which has resulted in a net increase of 200,000 more Democrats than Republicans, I don’t see the Democrats losing 7 seats – and control.  Add in the expected heavy turnout of Democratic voters, losing this many Senate seats would be shocking.

 

Continuing through the alphabet

North Carolina has 13 representatives: 6 Republicans and 7 Democrats

The filing deadline was Feb 29, primary is May 6

North Dakota has 1 representative: A Democrat

Filing deadline is April 11, primary is June 10

District: NC-01

Location Northeast NC, bordering VA and Pimlico Sound

Representative George Butterfield (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 42-57

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  None

Demographics 39th most rural (52.3$), 15th lowest income (median = $28K), 74th fewest Whites (44.4%), 24th most Blacks (50.5%)

Assessment  Unopposed

District: NC-02

Location Central NC, including Raleigh

Representative Bob Etheridge (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents In 2004, Billy Creech raised $130K to Etheridge’s $1 million. In 2006, Dan Mansell raised little

Current opponents None

Demographics 43rd most rural (50.5%)

Assessment Unopposed

District: NC-03

Location Most of the Atlantic coast of NC

Representative Walter Jones (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 68-32

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents   Marshall Adame

Demographics 42nd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-04

Location The ‘research triangle’ including Chapel Hill, Durham, and Cary

Representative David Price (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Augustus Cho

Demographics 67th highest income (median = $54K)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-05

Location Northwest NC, bordering TN and VA

Representative Virginia Foxx (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 59-41

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Harrell raised $400K to Foxx’s $1.2 million.  In 2006, Roger Sharpe raised $100K

Current opponents Roy Carter

Demographics 22nd most rural (57.1%), 42nd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-06

Location Central NC

Representative Howard Coble (R)

First elected  1984

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 73-27

Bush margin 2004 69-30

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Teresa Sue Bratton

Jay Ovittore and

Johnny Carter

Demographics 56th most rural (48.4%), 25th most Republican

Assessment This is a solidly Republican seat, but Coble is getting old (born 1931) and hasn’t had a serious fight in a while…

District: NC-07

Location Southern NC, bordering SC and the Atlantic

Representative Mike McIntyre (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 73-27

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Will Breazeale

Demographics 30th most rural (54.9%), 70th most Blacks (23.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-08

Location Central part of southern NC, bordering SC,

Representative Robin Hayes (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 329 votes out of 121,000

2004 margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Larry Kissell raised $800K to Hayes’ $2.5 million; in 2004, Beth Troutman raised $200K to Hayes’ $1.6 million

Current opponents Larry Kissell

Demographics 58th most Blacks (26.6%)

Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks this the 20th most vulnerable Republican seat, and it is on the DCCC list

District: NC-09

Location A strange shaped district in southern NC, bordering SC

Representative Susan Myrick (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 70-30

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Ross Overby

Harry Taylor , possibly Bill Glass

Demographics 73rd highest income (median = $55K) (3rd highest in the deep south, after GA-06 and GA-07)

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-10

Location Western NC, but east of NC-11, running from TN to SC

Representative Patrick McHenry (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Steve Ivester

Demographics 46th most rural (50.1%), 42nd most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: NC-11

Location Westernmost NC, bordering TN, GA, and SC

Representative Heath Shuler (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents In 2006, Shuler ousted Charles Taylor, raising $ 1.8 million to Taylor’s $4.4 million

Current opponents John Armor, Carl Mumpower

Demographics 25th most rural (56.1%), 90th lowest income (median = $35K)

Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it 14th most vulnerable Democratic seat.

District: NC-12

Location A really weird, snaky district, SC’s “Black” district.  Includes Charlotte and Winston Salem.  It was the subject of 4 Supreme Court cases. Still, it borders the NC5,6,8,9, and 10th

Representative Mel Watt (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 37-63

Notes on opponents Ada Fisher ran in 2004 and 2006, in 2004 he raised $100K, in 2006, $400K.  Watt raised about $500K each time

Current opponents Ada Fisher again

Demographics 28th most Blacks (44.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-13

Location Central part of northern NC, bordering VA

Representative Brad Miller (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 59-41

Bush margin 2004 47-52

Notes on opponents In 2006, Vernon Robinson raised $2.2 million to Miller’s $1.8 million.  In 2004, Virginia Johnson raised $350K to Johnson’s $1.2 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  safe

District: ND-AL

Location The whole state

Representative Earl Pomeroy (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 63-34

Notes on opponents In 2004, Duane Sand raised $1 million to Pomeroy’s $1.8 million; the 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 73rd most rural (44.2%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment Safe

Rasmussen is showing some good news for Democrats in North Carolina – both Richard Moore and Beverly Purdue are leading Republican Pat McCrory by 4-5%.

North Carolina Gubernatorial Election
Richard Moore (D)	39%
Pat McCrory (R)	34%

North Carolina Gubernatorial Election
Beverly Perdue (D)	42%
Pat McCrory (R)	38%

This shows improvement over December’s poll:

In December, McCrory on top in both match-ups by an identical 42% to 39% margin. That survey was conducted prior to McCrory’s official announcement to run in the election.

Anyone here know how reapportionment works in North Carolina? If we maintain our hold on the Governor’s mansion and the state legislature, can we squeeze an advantage here after the 2010 Census?

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, MD, MS, WV, KY, PA, NC, NM and IN; today, NC where the deadline is 2/29 and NE, where it is 3/3

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

NC has 13 congressional districts, 6 are held by Republicans, 7 by Democrats

NE has 3 districts, all Republican

The districts held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating

NC-01    D+9     .28       Butterfield        No

NC-02    R+3     .50       Etheridge          No

NC-04    D+6     .44       Price              No

NC-07    R+3     .40       McIntyre           Yes          Safe

NC-11    R+7     .73       Shuler             Yes          Vul (?)

NC-12    D+11    .15       Watt               No

NC-13    D+2     .39       Miller             No

basically, all these seats are pretty safe except maybe Shuler’s.

As for the Republicans

NC-03 R+15 .61

NC-03 is a bizarrely shaped district on the eastern part of NC, bordering on the Atlantic. It’s gerrymandered with NC-01. NC-01 is 50% Black and has median income of $28,410 (one of the lowest in the USA).  NC-03 is 17% Black and has a median income of $37,510; OK, only some of that is land that could be either CD…but….

Jones, first elected in 1994, has not been seriously challenged since, although his opponents recently have had no money.  He has recently become much less conservative, having a full about-face on the war. That accounts for a primary challenger.

His Democratic challenger is Marshall Adame , a kossack

NC-05 R+15  .79

NC-05 is the northern central part of NC, along the VA border.  

Foxx, first elected in 2004, was the survivor of a nasty Republican primary that year.  She won her general election relatively easily, though still getting 30,000 votes fewer than Bush did.

This year, one Democrat has announced Roy Carter , and several others might run: You can read about a debate they had in this live blog diary .

NC-06 R+17  .76

NC-06 is a weird shaped district in the middle of the state. One reason it’s so odd is to let NC-12 run along and through it, stopping at every Black community; another is so that NC-02 can carve the Black areas out of the eastern part of NC-06.  So, NC-02 is 30% Black, NC-12 is 45% Black, NC-06 is 9% Black.

Coble, first elected in 1984, has not been seriously challenged in decades.  But he’s getting old, and doesn’t appear to have filed.  The latest news on his campaign website is from 2004.

The only announced challenger is Johnny Carter.  

If Coble runs, he will be tough to beat.  If he retires…well,it’s still a Republican district, but things could get interesting.

NC-08 R+3 .37

NC-08 is the southwestern part of NC, along the SC border.

Hayes, first elected in 1998, has faced tough fights, never getting 60% and only once getting 55%.  In 2006, he beat Larry Kissel by 329 votes out of 121,000, in one of the closest races in the country.

Kissell is running again, and several others may run.  Kissell announced his run right after the last election.  This time the DCCC is fully behind Kissell. And Larry is a frequent poster on daily Kos

NC-09 R+12 .64

NC-09 is another odd shaped district, this one in the southern central part of NC, bordering SC. Again, this one is weird because of NC-12.  

Myrick, first elected in 1994, has won easily since, against underfinanced opponents.  In 2004, she got 17,000 more votes than Bush.

There are two formally announced challengers:

Ross Overby .  Ross seems like a moderate.  One nice feature on his website, though, is a button “if you usually vote Republican, click here”.  In a district like NC-09, a winning Democrat has to appeal to Republicans

and

Harry Taylor who seems more progressive.

and one who seems to be running: Bill Glass, who ran in 2006.

NC-10 R+15 .70

NC-10 is a north-south strip, separating the western tip of the state from the rest.

McHenry, first elected in 2004, won fairly easily against under-funded opponents.  He got about the same number of votes as Bush in 2004

His Democratic opponent this time is Steve Ivester

NE-01 R+12 .66

NE-01 is the eastern third of NE, excluding Omaha

Fortenberry, first elected in 2004, has had surprisingly tough races.  In 2004, he won 54-43, and in 2006, he won 58-42, both times against well-funded opponents, in races that cost roughly $2 million each, about evenly split between  incumbent and challenger.  In 2004, he got 26,000 votes less than Bush.

There are no confirmed challengers.  Maxine Moul, the 2006 challenger, may run again.

NE-02 R+9 .41

NE-02 is Omaha and suburbs

Terry, first elected in 1998, had his toughest race in 2006, when he won 55-45, despite outspending Jim Esch by about 2-1.

There is no confirmed challenger. State Sen Tom White may run

NE-03  R+24 .76

NE-03 is the vast, western 2/3 of NE; more rural than 92% of all districts.

Smith, first elected in 2006, had a tough race against Scott Kleeb, winning 55-45 (Bush, by contrast, got 75% in 2004)

Kleeb may run again