Tag: Redistricting

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Lots of pollsters that I’ve never heard of seem to be coming out of the woodwork to poll California lately, and here’s yet another one of them: some firm called ccAdvertising. They polled the Republican primaries, finding, on the Senate side, that Tom Campbell leads at 24, with Carly Fiorina at 12 and Chuck DeVore at 8. On the gubernatorial side, Meg Whitman leads Steve Poizner 40-15.

• CO-Sen: Tonight is the first step in the Colorado caucus process, with precinct-level gatherings. The results are non-binding, really more of a straw poll than anything, but are monitored as a sign of candidates’ strength. (Of course, in 2004, neither Ken Salazar nor Pete Coors won the caucuses yet went on to win their primaries.) The bigger hurdle is in May, when candidates must clear 30% at the state assembly to make the primary ballot (although those that don’t can still get on by collecting signatures). With the Governor’s race pretty much locked down, there’s still action aplenty on both the Dem and GOP sides in the Senate. Michael Bennet comes into tonight’s caucuses with a boost: he just got the endorsement from the state’s AFSCME, which may help fight the perception that rival Andrew Romanoff is labor’s one horse in the race.

• CT-Sen: Paulist economist Peter Schiff is finally dipping into the spoils from his moneybombs, running ads on Connecticut radio introducing himself to Republican primary voters and touting his having predicted the financial crisis of 2008.

• ID-Sen: Democrats are already way ahead of where they were in their last race against Mike Crapo in 2004: they’re actually fielding a candidate. Two, in fact, have filed, although they’re little known: Tom Sullivan and William Bryk.

• IL-Sen: Rep. Mark Kirk is up with his first TV spot for the general election campaign, calling himself an “independent-minded Republican.” Having beaten back various teabagger challengers in the primary, he’s now free to label himself as such.

• MD-Sen: File this under news of the weird: Bob Ehrlich is confirming he’s interested in running for office this year, but one idea he’s floating is running for Senate against Barbara Mikulski instead of for Governor against Martin O’Malley. That’s a very strange choice, as Mikulski is more popular than O’Malley and generally considered unassailable, but maybe Ehrlich thinks he can goad the 73-year-old Mikulski into retirement.

• NC-Sen: Two polls of the Democratic primary in the Senate race show fairly different pictures, with the main difference being how well Cal Cunningham is keeping pace with Elaine Marshall. PPP’s most recent poll of the primary shows Cunningham gaining four points from last month, trailing Marshall 20-16, with 11 for Kenneth Lewis (up from 5). On the GOP side, Richard Burr is at 58%, with his minor rivals all in the low single digits. Marshall, on the other hand, released her own internal yesterday, from Lake Research. The poll’s a little stale (in the field mid-February), so if the PPP poll reflects late movement to Cunningham, Marshall’s poll wouldn’t capture it. At any rate, her internal has her up 31-5 over Cunningham, with Lewis at 4.

• NJ-Sen: A weird-ass ruling from a New Jersey appellate court says the Tea Party may proceed with collecting recall petitions to recall Bob Menendez. The court, however, stayed its own decision in order to allow Menendez to appeal, presumably to a federal court which will disabuse the state judges of the notion that one can recall federal officials. (Adam B. points to the crux of the case here and here).

• AL-Gov, AR-Gov: Financial filings for gubernatorial candidates in Alabama and Arkansas are both available. In Alabama, Tim James ($2.6 mil) leads the GOPers, while Artur Davis ($2.1 mil) has the most cash among the Dems. In Arkansas, Mike Beebe is sitting on $1.2 million (having raised $313K in February); his opponent, Jim Keet, hasn’t been in long enough to report.

• ME-Gov: It looks like there won’t be a Green Party candidate on the ballot this year; Lynne Williams suspended her campaign after failing to gather the 2,000 required signatures. That’s good news for Dems, as this could turn out to be a close race (although with this little information and the fields this cluttered, who the hell knows?) and Greens often poll well in Maine, getting 9% of the vote in the convoluted 2006 gubernatorial election.

• PA-Gov (pdf): There was a gubernatorial portion to that poll from Republican pollster Susquehanna released yesterday, too. As with every poll of this race, undecideds are still very heavy, but Republican AG Tom Corbett leads Democratic state Auditor Jack Wagner 37-26, and leads Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato 39-24. Wagner has been dominating in terms of getting the endorsements of county-level party apparatuses, and he picked up one more yesterday, getting the nod from Cambria County (i.e. Johnstown) Democrats.

• WY-Gov: To almost no one’s surprise, Republican state House speaker Colin Simpson pulled the trigger, officially entering the gubernatorial race. (If his name sounds familiar, he’s the son of popular ex-Sen. Alan Simpson.) He faces three other high-profile GOPers, while Democrats, sorting out what to do after Dave Freudenthal’s late decision not to seek a third term, are still lining up a candidate.

• AK-AL: Rep. Don Young is refusing to get with the program, as far as the GOP’s new self-imposed ban on earmarks goes. Considering that Young seems most valued by his constituents for his ability to bring home the bacon (which may have saved his bacon twice, in both the primary and general in 2008), that may actually be the politically savvy thing for him to do.

• HI-01: The first debate was held in the special election in the 1st, and it may be most interesting in that ex-Rep. Ed Case was trying to stake out positions that sound pretty, well, Democratic. Case spoke out in favor of both health care reform and the stimulus package. Moderate Republican Charles Djou tried to differentiate himself by railing against both.

• IA-03: I don’t know if this is just one ex-wrestling coach sticking up for another, or if there’s an establishment movement afoot to coronate Jim Gibbons in the 3rd, but ex-Speaker Dennis Hastert is showing up to host a Des Moines fundraiser for Gibbons tomorrow. They’ll be joined by ex-Rep. Greg Ganske.

• PA-07: I love the smell of cat fud in the morning. While former local Fox affiliate news anchor Dawn Stensland didn’t file to run in the Republican primary as has been rumored, now she’s not ruling out an independent, teabagger-powered run instead. While she hasn’t begun gathering signatures, she is looking to move into the 7th. Even if she only garners a few percent, that could still tip the balance in what promises to be a very close race between Democrat Bryan Lentz and GOPer Pat Meehan.

• House: The Hill has an interesting survey of eight different primaries where the one participant’s vote on TARP could weigh heavily on the results (as it seemed to do in the Texas gubernatorial primary). Most are on the GOP side, but one Dem race to watch is PA-11, where Paul Kanjorski, the chair of the House subcommittee on Capital Markets, was one of TARP’s architects.

• NRCC: The NRCC is threatening to go on the air against Dems who change from “no” to “yes” votes on HCR, targeting them with the dread “flip-flop” label that served them so well in 2004. They have 42 Dems in mind to target, although there’s still the little wee matter of the NRCC finding the money to pay for the ads.

• NY-St. Sen.: Tonight’s the special election in SD-13 in Queens, where Hiram Monserrate is trying to win back the seat he just got kicked out of after his assault conviction. Monserrate, now an indie, is running against Democratic Assemblyman Jose Peralta. Peralta had a dominant lead in the one poll of the race made public.

• Ads: With the Demon Sheep and Boxer Blimp ads having established Carly Fiorina’s campaign as the new gold standard in bizarre advertising, Huffington Post has a nice wrapup of some of the other craziest political ads of the last few years, ranging from the well-known (Mike Gravel skipping rocks, Big John Cornyn) to the “huh?” (Nancy Worley on strangling cats).

• TV: Obsessive-compulsive political junkies and opposition researchers alike are dancing a jig right now, as C-Span has announced that it’s releasing its entire archives onto the Web. All 160,000 hours worth. (If you don’t have a calculator handy, that’s 18 years.)

• Redistricting: Eager not to get behind the redistricting 8-ball in 2012 like they were ten years ago, the DLCC has launched a $20 million push aimed at keeping control of state legislatures in key states. They point to “swing” chambers in 17 states that have the capacity to affect almost half of all House seats. Dem-held chambers they’re focusing on are the Alabama State Senate, Colorado State Senate, Indiana House, Nevada State Senate, New Hampshire State Senate, New York State Senate, Ohio House, Pennsylvania House, Wisconsin Assembly and the Wisconsin State Senate, while GOP-held chambers are the Michigan State Senate, Missouri House, Oklahoma State Senate, Tennessee House, and the Texas House.

Texas redistricting is the big prize on offer in 2010 state elections. Both sides have strong motives to want control, quite aside from the fact that it’s got 32 seats already and will probably have 36 next time round. Democrats, still smarting from Tom DeLay’s mid-decade shenanigans, would love to control the maps, allowing them to take advantage of rapid Hispanic growth and perhaps to draw a district for a longtime conservative state legislator who can scrabble out enough of a foothold to keep himself afloat with rural whites for another few years.

Republicans want to maintain their huge edge and to fix elements of the Delaymander that are falling apart – districts like TX-32 and TX-10 where a changing population will draw the ground out from under the Republicans by 2020. They also don’t want to see a return to the 1991 Democratic gerrymander.

My impression is that Republicans have the edge, so I’ve drawn a gerrymander for them. However, with Democrats controlling the Justice Department, minority rights will have to be respected. Texas Republicans cannot just draw four new districts for white Anglos, or the map will be thrown out.

Dave’s Redistricting App estimates Texas’ population as being 54% white, 11% black, 4% Asian and 31% Hispanic.

That ought to shake out to four black-majority districts, but the population just isn’t packed enough for that to be possible. I’ve kept the three districts that are already designed to elect black representatives, although they’re all black-plurality rather than black-majority. Two are at 47% black and are fairly safe, whilst the other is 38% black and may be Hispanic-plurality by 2020. That said, it’ll still probably elect a black representative from there for years afterward.

You can’t draw an Asian district, although in Houston an Asian-influence district might just be possibility come 2020. That leaves us with Texas’ 7.8m Hispanics. That ought to equate to 11 Hispanic-majority districts. I tried to do that and preserve a GOP gerrymander, but the numbers aren’t quite there. Instead I got 10 and an Austin district, where Doggett could easily be succeeded by a Hispanic.

In the meantime, I think I preserved a GOP gerrymander fairly well. There are 24 districts McCain won and in 20 of those he got 60% of the vote or more. In only one Republican did McCain get less than 58% of the vote.

[Map]

West Texas

TX-01 – blue

[Demographics]

Obama: 65 McCain: 34

Likely candidate: Silvestre Reyes

First things first: yes, I’ve renumbered the districts. This is partly because I started in west Texas, headed east to the sea then spiralled clockwise round the state, finishing in the Houston suburbs and was too lazy to swap the colours later. But it’s also partly because there’s almost no rime nor reason to Texas’ current numbering system, so I don’t see the urgent need to change.

Reyes’ district shrinks slightly as El Paso grows. The district gets negligibly less Democratic, but I don’t think he’s going to be quaking in his boots.

TX-02 – dark green

[Demographics]

Obama: 62 McCain: 37

Likely candidates: Henry Cuellar, Ciro Rodriguez (?)

This district covers the Mexican border from El Paso to Zapata county and clocks in at a hefty 81% Hispanic. It looks an awful lot like Ciro Rodriguez’s current district, only straying into some south-eastern (and not entirely Hispanic) outskirts of San Antonio.

On the flipside, it now contains Laredo. Cuellar won the last primary, and as the Democratic primary will be the decider, I wouldn’t bet against Republicans crossing over to support him. I’m not even certain whether Ciro lives in this district, but either way he might consider running in the new third instead, except for one thing…

TX-03 – dark purple

[Demographics]

Obama: 38 McCain: 61

Likely candidates: Mike Conaway (?), Ciro Rodriguez (?), Henry Bonilla (?)

Democrats have always been keen on the idea of a Hispanic-majority West Texas seat. This seat gives it to them, just, but in a form they can’t win. The core of the old 11th around Midland is here, but rather than taking in San Angelo and the Hill Country, the district instead dives south-east to take in central San Antonio.

Although Hispanics make up 50% of the district’s population, many of them can’t vote (and plenty of the more rural ones are quite conservative) so McCain beat Obama by 50,000 votes here.

The flip-side of this is that the district is guaranteed to swing left, as rural west Texas depopulates and Hispanics become eligible to vote. Right now around 40% of the district’s inhabitants (and 60% of its Hispanics) live within Bexar county.

Given that trend, Conaway might decide to give the new 3rd a miss and move to the 10th, which northern bits of Midland protrude into. Who could step into the breach for the GOP? A Hispanic candidate would help, although primary voters might not warm to him. How about Henry Bonilla?

TX-09 – light blue

[Demographics]

Obama: 39 McCain: 60

Likely candidates: ?

This is essentially a Hill Country and Colorado River watershed district. A few almost uninhabited counties aside, the district is anchored in the west by San Angelo and bits of Austin and its suburbs in the east.

The rest of the district is largely rural, with Brady probably the largest town outside Travis and Tom Green counties. I’m not sure who the GOP would pick to run here, but I’d put good money he’d try to grab a seat on the agriculture committee.

TX-10 – magenta

[Demographics]

Obama: 34 McCain: 65

Likely candidates: Mike Conaway (?), Chet Edwards (?)

Now that Charles Stenholm is busy with lobbying, there’s much less need for Republicans to draw three blood-red districts in west and north-west Texas. Instead I’ve created a series of strips heading east-west and reaching into Central Texas in an attempt to combine ultra-Republican West Texas with very Republican Central Texas.

This district is a two county tall line through West Texas, taking in north Midland, Big Spring, Sweetwater and Abilene amongst others before abruptly turning south-east. From there it extends just far enough to take in Killeen and half of Waco.

If Mike Conaway decides he’s too crazy to feel safe representing a majority-Hispanic district, he might run here. Otherwise there are plenty of local legislators willing to step up. The district contains 170,000 (mostly Democratic) voters from Bell County, 130,000 from McLennan County and 110,000 from Abilene. So whether the primary winner would be from Killeen, Waco, Abilene or even somewhere further west is an open question.

Either way, I can’t see Chet Edwards running here. Depending on which side of Waco he lives on he might be resident here and he’d like to represent Fort Hood again, but the only bit shared between this district and the current TX-17 is western McLennan county. He won’t want a district that borders New Mexico.

South Texas

TX-04 – red

[Demographics]

Obama: 69 McCain: 31

Likely candidates: Ruben Hinojosa

McAllen is big enough for its own district now. I made up the numbers with south-eastern Hidalgo county, including Hinojosa’s hometown of Mercedes.

At 88% Hispanic, almost certainly the US’ most Hispanic district.

TX-05 – yellow

[Demographics]

Obama: 63 McCain: 36

Likely candidates: ?

An amalgam of the current 28th, 27th and 15th districts, this district takes in Brownsville, Herlingen, Kingsville and a lot of thinly populated rural areas. No current representative lives here, although Solomon Ortiz might move if he doesn’t like the 6th. Either way, he’ll surely face a primary from a local boy.

TX-06 – teal

[Demographics]

Obama: 44 McCain: 55

Likely candidate: Solomon Ortiz

This district begins near Corpus Christi and continues along the coast as far as Jackson and Calhoun counties. To this it adds a fairly Hispanic hinterland of counties a little further inland. So far, so understandable.

However, it then sends a dogleg north-east to pick up enough of southern Bexar county (including south-central San Antonio) to make it Hispanic-majority.

I tried to clean up the dogleg both to improve Republican prospects and to make it look less like an obvious gerrymander, but it can’t really be hidden.

At 54% Hispanic it’s less vulnerable on voting rights grounds than the 3rd, but if Solomon Ortiz runs here expect him to involve the courts.

Either way, of course, Republicans will be finding it difficult by 2020, especially if they’re still chasing the nativist vote. Still, this could be a pick-up in 2012 with a decent candidate.

[San Antonio map]

TX-07 – grey

[Demographics]

Obama: 58 McCain: 41

Likely candidate: Charlie Gonzalez

This district isn’t radically changed from the old TX-20. It continues to be a metro San Antonio district with a Hispanic majority, although not as much of one now that so many other districts have taken bites out of the city.

Still, at 54% Hispanic I don’t see Gonzalez having too many problems winning re-election.

TX-08 – light purple

[Demographics]

Obama: 44 McCain: 55

Likely candidate: Lamar Smith

The northern bits of the old TX-21 are removed for this district so that it’s made up of majority white sections of northern San Antonio as well as western Guadalupe county and the counties north of Bexar.

Smith might be in trouble if Hispanics if northern San Antonio rapidly gets more liberal or more Hispanic, but as the district is at 63% McCain right now he ought to be able hold them off for a few years yet.

North Texas

TX-11 – light green

[Demographics]

Obama: 29 McCain: 70

Likely candidate: Randy Neugebauer, Chet Edwards (?)

Now that Charlie Stenholm is no more, you could make Neugebauer’s turf into a more reasonably shaped district. Or you could just use it to annoy Chet Edwards. Guess what I did?

This district begins in the Llano Estocado around Lubbock and heads east along county lines until it hits the Metroplex exurbs. It extends as far as Mineral Wells but afterwards turns south and south-east, shadowing my TX-10. It gets as far as McLennan County, taking in eastern Waco, before the district reaches its population complement.

This district is more like Chet Edwards’ than TX-10. It includes around 180,000 of his current constituents and all or part of four counties he represents (Hood, Somervell, Bosquet and McLennan). On the other hand, 75% of the district is new, it voted for McCain by forty points, it borders New Mexico and he may not even live here. If he runs here, he’s a brave man.

TX-12 – metallic blue

[Demographics]

Obama: 24 McCain: 75

Likely candidate: Mac Thornberry

I really tried to minimise the pain amongst Texas Republicans by spreading it evenly. That’s very difficult to do with TX-12.

Any district beginning in the Panhandle has a long way to go before it hits an area of demographic strength. What’s more, it has to go through the northern exurbs of the Metroplex, which are solidly Republican and heavily populated.

If I’d gerrymandered a little harder, I could have got this district to Fort Worth. But even then, it’d still be a 70% McCain district, so why bother?

Instead I just chucked all the Panhandle into the district then marched the district along the counties bordering Oklahoma, before turning south to pick up northern bits of Denton County.

TX-13 – terracotta

[Demographics]

Obama: 38 McCain: 61

Likely candidate: Kay Granger (?)

Whilst Kay Granger could run here, she’d work just as well in TX-23 (although it is slightly more marginal) and has no pressing need to move. It’s more likely that this will be filled by new blood. Whether it’s a hard-right suburbanite or a a hard-right exurbanite is the major question here.

Arguably this isn’t a North Texas district but a DFW district. Whilst the bulk of its geographical area is made up two counties west (Park and Wise) and two south (Hill and Johnson) of the metroplex, it sends an arm into Tarrant County, picking up south-eastern Fort Worth and central Arlington. Nearly half of the district lives in this arm.

Yet whilst the 325,000 people within Tarrant County in the district are only 45% white and voted for Obama 58-41, the rest of the district is 85% white and went for McCain 75-24. So long as the margin in the rural/exurban sections remains so lopsided, this’ll stay safely Republican and it’ll behave like a North Texas district.

If the Tarrant County section starts to dominate or if the outlying areas start to moderate, things will get closer. But even if it’s looking a bit ropy come 2020, it’ll likely take a wave year to flip it.

Incidentally, Chet Edwards currently represents the two southern counties of this district. However, I can’t see him running here because a) he doesn’t live here and b) I’m not convinced he’d win the primary. He currently represents less than 30% of the district’s residents and those two counties have less than 20% of TX-13’s Democrats. I just can’t see black and Latino voters in Fort Worth and Arlington (who’ll likely be decisive in the Democratic parimary) deciding that the representative they really need is a conservative white guy from central Texas.

DFW Metroplex

[map]

TX-14 – greenish brown

[Demographics]

Obama: 38 McCain: 61

Likely candidate: Michael Burgess

Population growth shrinks this county heavily. The old TX-26 gives up its portion of Tarrant County, splitting it beween TX-13, TX-21 and TX-23, and its spur into Cooke county joins north Denton in TX-12.

On the other hand, it takes over south-east Denton from the old TX-24 and extends across the border into Collin County, picking up Frisco and the eastern fringes of McKinney.

Burgess’ margins improve 6 points net from 58-41.

TX-15 – orange

[Demographics]

Obama: 37 McCain: 61

Likely candidate: Sam Johnson

TX-15 could be entirely confined to Collin County, but I’ve decided not to so as to give myself a little more freedom.

Which is not to say that it’s not a Collin County district – the Dallas County part of the district contains less than 4% of its inhabitants. More specifically, it’s a Plano-McKinney district, and around 9 points more Republican net.

TX-17 – dark blue

[Demographics]

Obama: 61 McCain: 38

Likely candidate: Pete Sessions (?)

No, this isn’t really Pete Sessions’ intended district, but it might be the one where he actually lives, as I can’t work out which bit of Dallas he lives in. If Pete can win a district that’s only 30% white, then I’m a gazebo. If he lives here, he’ll move, probably to TX-20. That said, TX-20 is probably more likely to include his home anyway.

(Yes, I did draw these districts before checking where each incumbent lives. Nevertheless, in general I got away with it – DFW is a slight exception and even there it’s clearable.)

As it is, this is the Metroplex’s new Hispanic district. I have no idea who the likely new incumbent would be here.

TX-18 – slightly pale yellow

[Demographics]

Obama: 79 McCain: 20

Likely candidate: Eddie Bernice Johnson

The basic shape of the district isn’t changed enormously and it remains a plurality-black district. In fact, it’s now blacker than it used to be, up from 42%. That said, I couldn’t find any way of getting to 50%.

TX-19 – grassy green

[Demographics]

Obama: 39 McCain: 60

Likely candidates: Joe Barton, Chet Edwards (?)

This district begins in south-western Tarrant and south-eastern Dallas county, but only to absorb swing whites in the area within a much redder district. From there’s it’s a long strip south-south-east through Barton’s base in Ennis county, Navarro, Limestone, Freestone, Roberton and north Brazos (including Bryan and College Station).

This isn’t wildly dissimilar to Barton’s current district, which differs mostly in that it turns east at Freestone and in that it includes more of the Metroplex.

If Chet Edwards doesn’t require, here’s probably his best bet to challenge, as the southern half of the district is pretty familiar to him. That said, Barton is pretty well-embedded in the district and we can’t assume Edwards will win any district just because it’s slightly less Republican than his current one.

TX-20 – salmon pink

[Demographics]

Obama: 41 McCain: 58

Likely candidates: Pete Sessions, Ralph Hall

There was no active need to screw Ralph Hall over in this map, but I don’t think that’s inherently unlikely in a Republican gerrymander. There are several reasons for this.

Firstly, he’s 86 and plenty of ambitious state legislators in North-East Texas would like to see him retire so they can replace him. Secondly, his committee assignments aren’t crucial to Texas – his seniority on Energy and Commerce is considerable, but Joe Barton is already ranking member and is 26 years younger, whilst Science and Technology is a relatively minor committee with a lot of Texas Republicans on it, including Lamar Smith as the third in seniority. Thirdly, Hall used to be a Democrat and whilst he’s effectively been a Republican since he joined Congress, he’s still not the member they most want to protect.

None of this means he will be drawn out of his district. Rockwall County could join the new TX-16, although it’d require a lot of shifting around amongst the DFW districts. Nevertheless, it’s questionable whether Hall will be running for re-election in 2012, so I’ve drawn Rockwall into the new TX-20.

The rest of the district is made up of northern and north-eastern Dallas County, including Richardson, Rowlett, Addison, University Park, Highland Park, bits of Garland and much of north Dallas. A lot of this is already represented by Pete Sessions and whilst a district extending into Rockwall instead of Irving might be new, it shouldn’t pose a challenge. And Ralph Hall certainly shouldn’t, as this much more Sessions’ district than it is Hall’s.

TX-21 – reddish brown

[Demographics]

Obama: 39 McCain: 60

Likely candidate: Kenny Marchant

This district no longer includes the Denton county portions of Carrolton, but otherwise Marchant has no reason to complain. Although he does pick up a fair amount of black voters near the Fort Worth-Arlington boundary, his new district went by McCain by over twenty points.

What’s more, the new district is a lot less likely to slip away from under his feet than the last one. Now that the southern part of the old TX-24 is gone, Marchant represents the third least Hispanic district of all Texas’ predominantly urban districts (beaten only by TX-14 and TX-15 just to his north). It’s therefore unlikely that increasing Hispanic eligibility to vote will cut his margins as much as will happen elsewhere.

TX-23 – very light blue

[Demographics]

Obama: 42 McCain: 58

Likely candidate: Kay Granger

The last district wholly within the Metroplex is also the one Republicans will be most wary of. It includes the bits of Tarrant Granger already represents plus a little more on central Fort Worth. Of course, that kind of reduction in size tends to betoken population growth. And this being Texas, population growth means Hispanics.

At 24% Hispanic,  TX-23 could become quite hairy by 2020. Unfortunately there’s no obvious way to avoid this – Fort Worth doesn’t have a huge amount of monolithically Hispanic neighbourhoods, and some of them have been dropped into TX-13, but it has enough of them scattered in every area for it to be hard to minimise Hispanics.

Therefore, Granger may have to play up her moderate bona fides. Maybe she’ll hold it, maybe she won’t. A lot will depend on how much she can cut Democratic margins amongst the Hispanic community.

East Texas

TX-16 – bright green

[Demographics]

Obama: 29 McCain: 70

Likely candidate: ?

This is basically Ralph Hall’s district minus Ralph Hall. A few lines are straightened up, it grabs a couple of small counties and now only splits Collin County, but nothing to write home about.

However, without Rockwall in the district it’ll lack an incumbent, so expect a free-for-all in the Republican primary. Just don’t expect any Democrat to stand a chance in the general.

This is a district so red I really should have worked out a way to send it into Tarrant to help out Granger.

TX-22 – muddy brown

[Demographics]

Obama: 35 McCain: 64

Likely candidate: Jeb Hensarling

This is in some ways a Dallas district, as it provides more than a third of the district’s population and is the biggest contributor to the total by some margin. Certainly the district’s centre of gravity lies in the suburban and exurban parts of the old TX-5.

On the other hand, to the core of that district I’ve added a bunch of thinly populated East Texas counties reaching down towards Dallas. Whilst it’s not going to be enough to worry Dallas resident Hensarling about a possible primary, it does keep the district nice and red and provides it with a potential out into a future existence as a proper East Texas district when overwhelmed Republican districts start to have to flee DFW in 2020.

TX-24 – very dark purple

[Demographics]

Obama: 31 McCain: 69

Likely candidate: Louie Gohmert

What can I say here? Like TX-16, the changes are not major. Three counties to the north are lost and in return most of Cherokee county is taken. Had I not been playing to strict population equality rules – no more than 1000 plus or minus than the average – I’d have taken the entire county and created a district that actually looks naturally shaped.

Either way, it’d still be a monstrosity for Democrats and a sinecure for Gohmert.

TX-25 – dark pink

[Demographics]

Obama: 34 McCain: 65

Likely candidate: Ted Poe (?)

This was originally designed as a fairly pure South-east Texas district. Although population equality necessitated a move out of that area, I had hoped to do it just by hopping Galveston Bay and grabbing most of Texas City.

Then I checked and found out Ted Poe lives in Humble. After deciding it wasn’t practicable to essentially swap Brady and Poe into each other’s districts, I then had to abandon the Galveston Bay hop and head into Harris County, necessitating a fair bit of boundary reworking between this district, TX-26 and TX-31. That and the need to keep TX-31 as black as possible account for most of the very ugly lines in north Harris, with population equality causing the rest.

Nevertheless, South-east Texas still predominates here, as less than 25% of voters are resident in Harris county. Indeed, Ted Poe still might not live here, as I only included about two-thirds of Humble. Poe isn’t completely immune from a challenge emanating from Beaufort or Port Arthur.

Either way though, Republicans are heavily favoured.

TX-26 – dark grey

[Demographics]

Obama: 26 McCain: 73

Likely candidate: Kevin Brady

My initial plan called for this seat to be based around Montgomery County, heading down into Harris to pick up some northern outliers of Houston.

Having to draw Ted Poe back into TX-25 screwed that up, especially as a lot of the north Houston suburbs ended up being needed for Sheila Jackson-Lee’s district.

Instead the district limits itself to only a few forays over the Harris-Montgomery line and instead heads eastward to take in San Jacinto, Polk and Tyler counties. These appear to be fairly standard East Texas counties and are thus quite different from rapidly growing Montgomery county, but the culture clash shouldn’t be a problem for Brady, as he already represents everything in this district bar the portions of Harris.

At 73% McCain, this is a very safe district.

Central Texas

TX-27 – emerald green

[Demographics]

Obama: 40 McCain: 59

Likely candidate: John Carter

I’m skipping over Houston for now and heading straight on to central Texas. Except of course that I’ve mostly done central Texas using the tendrils of TX-10, TX-11, TX-19 and TX-22.

In practice, therefore, I’m left with only three districts. Once you exclude the metro Austin one, you’re left with two and this is the only one that makes a concerted effort to stay within the area’s borders.

I can’t say I’m entirely happy with it. I’d hoped to make Carter safer than this, but screwing over Chet Edwards sucked up many of the reddest bits of central Texas and the southern parts of this district aren’t quite as Republican as Erath, Hamilton and Correll counties, which have been removed.

That said, this district isn’t a disaster. Williamson and Bell counties are getting bluer, but this bluening is not necessarily permanent and is in any case balanced out by my removal of Killeen from the district and the much more rural eastern end of the district.

Carter might not like this district, but he can win it, as it voted for McCain by around 3% more than the rest of Texas. Even in 2020, it’s unlikely Texas will be much more than a swing state and much of that change will be driven by Hispanics, who aren’t a massive factor here.

Carter or his successors just have to hang on for five more terms, by which time Chet Edwards will be long gone and a central Texas district staying further away from Austin can be drawn.

TX-28 – light purple

[Demographics]

Obama: 72 McCain: 26

Likely candidate: Lloyd Dogget, Mike McCaul (?)

Splitting Austin was a cute idea, but realistically an over-ambitious one. Since Republicans have failed to eliminate Lloyd Doggett that way, they’re better off giving him a metro Austin district. That way they can run against Austin liberals in the event of San Francisco falling into the sea and can also sit back and hope he falls victim to a race-based primary.

Northern and eastern portions of Austin were included in TX-9 to bulk up the numbers and the Travis county bit of Round Rock joins Pflugerville in TX-27, but otherwise Travis County belongs to this district.

No Republican is going to win here, so Michael McCaul should move.

TX-29 – dull green

[Demographics]

Obama: 38 McCain: 61

Likely candidate: Michael McCaul (?)

This would be a good place for McCaul to move, as no other congress-critter lives here and it’s Republican by quite a significant margin.

That said, it doesn’t include much of his previous district. Both the old TX-10 and the new TX-29 are Austin to Houston districts, but the old version took a rather more northerly route. Only two counties – thinly populated Austin and Waller – are found in both districts in their entirety – whilst the three other counties where some ground is shared still don’t bring the shared areas above 100,000 people.

On the other hand, Mike McCaul cannot win a minority-majority Austin district, and this is the only nearby district without an incumbent.

McCaul’s problems don’t stop there, however. Whilst the district goes from the Travis County border to take in one voting district from Harris County, it also extends south to the Gulf of Mexico. In the east it takes in half of Fort Bend county, including the lion’s share of Rosenberg and in the south-east it picks up heavily Hispanic areas towards San Antonio, including San Mateo and Seguin.

The district’s 31% Hispanic population poses a ticking timebomb for McCaul. Prboably not one that will get him by 2020, although by then it’ll be a minority-majority district. But certainly one that will make him difficult to protect come the next redistricting.

Houston

FL-Sen: Insider Advantage, polling on behalf of the Florida Times Union, confirms what PPP sees in the GOP primary. They have Marco Rubio eviscerating Charlie Crist, 60-26. Charlie Crist better figure out his exit strategy in a hurry, or else he’ll have a lot more time to spend on back waxes come September.

KY-Sen: Some Dude Bill Johnson said he’s bailing on the GOP primary to succeed Jim Bunning, saying his internal polling looked cruddy. He’d spent a few hundred grand of his own money, but yeah, I never heard of him either. He does have a perfect Some Dude name – according to the SSP tags, there’s another Bill Johnson running in Ohio this cycle, and still another running in Alabama!

NV-Sen: How is this man still in office? The New York Times reports:”Previously undisclosed e-mail messages turned over to the F.B.I. and Senate ethics investigators provide new evidence about Senator John Ensign’s efforts to steer lobbying work to the embittered husband of his former mistress….”

CO-Gov: In an apparent bid to out-nut his party-mate Jane Norton when it comes to outlandishly conservative proposals on the “restructuring” of basic governance, Scott McInnis was caught on tape at a recent Tea Party candidate forum suggesting that the state Department of Education be looked at as a possible target for elimination. (JL)

GA-Gov: Georgia Dems are pressing the House Ethics Committee to wrap up its investigation of Rep. Nathan Deal, who is slated to resign from the House at the end of the month. If they don’t finish by then, there’s a good chance they’ll just drop the investigation – something, in fact, they just did with regard to Eric Massa.

HI-Gov: This is interesting. We noted the International Longshore and Warehouse Union’s endorsement of Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hanneman in the Dem primary yesterday, but we didn’t look at their rationale. One of their reasons ought to appeal to progressives: Hanneman, like the ILWU and Sens. Dan Akaka and Dan Inouye, has backed Colleen Hanabusa over Ed Case for the HI-01 May special election. Rival Neil Abercrombie has stayed neutral, which looks like a big mistake, given how powerful the ILWU is in Hawaii.

NY-Gov: Trying to forestall attempts to find a better candidate (or shove him from the race), Rick Lazio rolled out a bunch of endorsements from a bunch of Republicans who are all retired these days: former Gov. George Pataki and former Reps. Amo Houghton, Sherwood Boehlert, and George Wortley. I had to look up Wortley – he hasn’t served since 1989.

MI-07: Look out, John Kasich! Tim Walberg says “I was Tea Party before there was a Tea party.” He also says he lost in 2008 “because McCain was not a true conservative and people were tired of moderates.”

NY-14: With Democratic majorities at risk and progressive power in Congress at a troubling ebb, too many powerful New Yorkers seem only too happy to back an unabashed pro-bankster neophyte challenging a liberal female incumbent. I’m talking about Reshma Saujani, who’s running on a platform of kissing Wall Street’s ass (“If you go to Texas, you’ll never hear a Congressional member speak poorly of the oil industry”) against Rep. Carolyn Maloney. Oh, but don’t worry – Saujani’s got all the important things covered. At a recent women’s fundraiser, one of her supporters assured the crowd, “But it gets better, look how fashionable she is. She’ll definitely be the best dressed person in Congress.”

NY-29: Former Rep. Randy Kuhl has decided he won’t try to win his old seat back. Instead, he’s endorsing ex-Corning Mayor Tom Reed. Incidentally, Kuhl must have had the worst oppo team ever when he was actually running for office, no?

SC-02: Ugh – Dem Rob Miller, who raked in a couple mil he never otherwise would have seen after Rep. Joe Wilson’s “You lie!” outburst, is making some unforced errors. He kicked a TV reporter and camera crew out of a speech to a local Democratic club, and then tried to later claim he had done no such thing. Unfortunately, contemporaneous emails contradicted Miller’s claims. I really hope that Miller’s elevation to Red to Blue status means he’s going to get some professional campaign assistance, and that he’s not just being fleeced for his Brewster’s millions.

Redistricting: I love this diary – possumtracker takes us on a magical mystery tour of some of the most extreme possible majority-minority districts, in places you probably never thought such districts could exist. Let’s hope actual map-drawers (or the DoJ) don’t take too many cues, though, since these kinds of districts would likely kill many neighboring Democratic seats.

Robocalls: The Republican Attorney General of Indiana, Greg Zoeller, chastised the NRCC yesterday for its use of robocalls introduced by a live operator. Zoeller says that, while legal, the NRCC’s tactics violate the spirit of a tri-partisan treaty signed between the state’s Democratic, Republican and Libertarian parties banning the use of robocalls in the state. Zoeller asked the NRCC to suspend its use of robocalling in the state. Typical for the NRCC, they told Zoeller to go twist. (JL)

An 9-5 Democratic map probably. I will quickly give a rundown of the districts followed by a few maps of the districts.

District 1 (blue): 46% black and 45% white, probably John Lewis territory more than anyone else but man would the folks in Paulding and Bartow counties be pissed to be in a district with the west side of ATL. Probably the most ridiculous district.

District 2 (green): 45 percent white and 44 percent black, amazing considering how all the black population is concentrated in a chunk of Fulton and a sliver of Clayton. David Scott would probably run here.

District 3 (purple): 48% white and 42% black, Clayton and east Dekalb make this a Democratic district probably. I have no idea what Democrat would run though.

District 4 (red): 49 percent white, 39 percent black. Probably my favorite district. White percentage doesn’t necessarily represent GOP percentage because of Clarke county which is 60% white yet 60% Democratic. I think Hank Johnson would want this one or…

District 5 (yellow): Very diverse district, 40 percent white, 34 percent black, 17 percent Hispanic, 8 percent Asian. Similar to the 4th, white percentage includes liberal whites in east Fulton/ west central Dekalb. Another possibility for Hank Johnson?

District 6 (teal): 49% white, 25 percent black, 19% Hispanic, 6% Asian. Getting desperate here but this would no doubt be a Democratic district due to once again liberal whites in ATL plus the majority-minority status of the district. Have no idea who would represent this but definitely not Tom Price.

District 7 (gray): Finally a GOP seat in Metro ATL (6-1 delegation for Dems so far)! Tom Price and Phil Gingrey battle it out here for a 76 percent white, safe GOP district.

District 8 (periwinkle): I’m pretty sure I helped Jim Marshall out with this one stretching across Middle GA. 56% white, 39% black probably pretty close to 50-50 for Obama/McCain (7-1 Dems).

District 9 (light blue): Screwed up a little here but Barrow should be safe. 54% white, 40% black so less black than now. I was attempting to get a Democratic south east GA district by diluting Barrow’s district but you’ll see that’s not happening… (but we have a 8-1 Dem advantage).

District 10 (neon pink): 65% white and 28% black. Not quite good enough to elect a Democrat considering the hostility of SE GA whites towards Democrats (8-2 Democrats).

District 11 (yellow-green): pretty much the same as Sanford Bishop’s pre 2006 district. 52 percent white and 41 percent black I think a Democrat would be fine here (9-2 Democrats).

Districts 12-14: well the Republicans had to go somewhere… All these districts are between 75 to 82% white. I think the 12th would be Westmoreland’s, the 13th is similar to the open 9th and the 14th get’s rid of Paul Broun so hurray for that!

With the three additional GOP seats that brings me to a 9-5 Democratic advantage. Pretty unrealistic but entirely possible if not for the VRA guidelines. Honestly though I think this might expand black representation because of the additional metro ATL seats but I worry in a bad cycle the 11th and the 9th could be in danger for Democrats. Still even if those fell we’d be tied 7-7, gaining a seat.

North GA:

South GA:

Middle GA:

Metro ATL:

I thought it would be interesting to use Dave’s Redistricting App to show that it was possible to create minority-majority districts in places that people might not necessarily expect, yet are indeed possible. I know that most of these districts will probably never be created, but it was an interesting chance to see what districts could be created. Technically, the definition of a majority-minority district according to the Supreme Court is any district that is less than 50% white (a coalition district), not necessarily a majority for one specific group. So some of these districts are +50% for one group, such as black or Hispanic, others have a plurality for another group, while others are just less than 50% white. So here are some of the districts I looked at:

California

Racial stats: 51% Asian, 29% white, 12% Hispanic, 4% other, 3% black

This is an Asian majority district in the Bay Area. While several current districts have an Asian plurality with current Census data, none of them have an Asian majority. This district would probably elect an Asian representative, most likely Rep. Mike Honda, who already represents many Asian areas in San Jose. I think this might be the first Asian majority district to ever exist outside of Hawaii.

Colorado

Racial stats: 51% Hispanic, 37% white, 7% black, 3% Asian, 1% Native American, 1% other

It was actually possible to create a district in the Denver area that is majority-Hispanic. I linked Hispanic areas in the cities of Lakewood, Denver, Commerce City, Longmont, Brighton, and Greeley. Most of the voters come from Diana DeGette’s 1st district and Ed Perlmutter’s 7th district, although Jared Polis’s 2nd district and Betty Markey’s 4th district also lose some voters. I assume this district would elect a Democrat, possibly Diana DeGette, or possibly someone else.

Connecticut

Racial stats: 43% white, 27% black, 24% Hispanic, 3% Asian, 3% other

By linking minority areas in the cities of Bridgeport, New Haven, Waterbury, New Britain, and Hartford, it was possible to create a district that is majority-minority in Connecticut. The district has the homes of John Larson and Rosa DeLauro, and takes in all of the major urban centers in the four eastern and central districts, so it would probably help Republicans in some of the other districts. While the district is less than 50% white, it is almost evenly split between the district’s Hispanic and black populations, so it would be interesting to see what would happen in an election here.

Indiana

Racial stats: 45% black, 43% white, 9% Hispanic, 2% other, 1% Asian

By connecting heavily black areas in Indianapolis and Gary, it is possible to create a district that is plurality (yet not majority) black. I assume that Andre Carson would run here and win, although he would probably be challenged in the primary by Pete Visclosky. However, this district is more Indianapolis, so I think Carson would defeat Visclosky. This district would be incredibly Democratic either way, I’m sure Obama broke 75% here, maybe even 80%.

New Jersey

Racial stats: 39% white, 34% black, 21% Hispanic, 4% Asian, 2% other

This district connects minority areas in Atlantic City, Camden, and Trenton, and could probably be made even less white than this version is. Battle Royale between John Adler and Robert Andrews that would allow a minority candidate to slip through the primary? Thanks to andgarden for this idea.

New Mexico

1st district (blue): 53% Hispanic, 37% white, 5% Native American, 2% other, 2% black, 1% Asian

2nd district (green): 51% Hispanic, 42% white, 4% Native American, 1% black, 1% other, 1% Asian

3rd district (purple): 55% white, 22% Hispanic, 17% Native American, 2% other, 2% black, 1% Asian

As it stands now, all three New Mexico districts are majority-minority, although Dave’s Redistricting App shows a Hispanic majority in only one district, the current NM-02, with updated 2008 numbers. So I wanted to see if it was possible to create not just one, but two Hispanic majority districts. I accomplished this task without too much difficulty, although I admit that it looks a bit strange. The 2nd district remains almost unchanged, although it picks up Torrance County and Hispanic-majority San Miguel County and loses the cities of Carlsbad and Hobbs. Meanwhile, the city of Albuquerque is split in half, along with the northern and eastern edges of the state. The Hispanic western half of Albuquerque as well as other Hispanic areas to the north and east of the 2nd district, as well as Santa Fe go into the 1st district. Meanwhile, the mostly white eastern half of Albuquerque is put into the sprawling 3rd district, which goes from Gallup and Farmington in the northwest all the way down to Hobbs in the southeast.

This would set up an interesting chain of events assuming the three Democratic congressmen currently in office (Heinrich, Teague, and Lujan) were still in office. No one would probably want to run in the new 3rd district, which is the white-majority district and the most Republican of the three. Teague would most likely run in the 2nd district, which is similar to his current district, although he would have to move as his home in Hobbs is now in the 3rd district. Meanwhile, Lujan and Heinrich would probably face off in the 3rd district, although I imagine Lujan would be the favorite since he represents much of this district already and there is now a Hispanic majority in the district. Meanwhile, a Republican would likely win the 3rd district seat, although perhaps I am wrong since New Mexico is a pretty Democratic state on the whole and this district still has significant Hispanic (22%) and Native American (17%) populations. This map would never occur with a Democratic legislature/governor, although perhaps the Republicans would attempt this if they controlled the state government, which is highly unlikely for now.

Ohio

Racial stats: 53% black, 42% white, 2% other, 1% Asian, 1% Hispanic

This district actually inspired the rest of the diary after I thought of it over the summer. This new majority-black district links African-American areas in the cities of Cincinnati, Dayton, and Columbus, and manages to look cleaner than even the current NC-12 (Mel Watt’s district). It would almost certainly elect a black Democrat, and at the same time would take pressure off of other Republicans such as Pat Tiberi and Mike Turner. If Steve Chabot was elected in 2010, he would probably have to run against Boehner or Schmidt in the primary as this district would take up much of the current OH-01’s turf in Cincinnati. If Steve Driehaus hung on in 2010, I think he would probably lose the primary to an African-American, although who knows what would happen.

Also, several people have said that they have been unable to keep OH-10 as a majority-black district in Cleveland without going into Akron.

It is indeed possible, here is a map:

Racial stats: 50% black, 41% white, 5% Hispanic, 2% Asian, 1% other

The main way I did this was by taking a lot of the population from Dennis Kucinich’s district, which puts his district 270,000 people in the red, which makes it almost a given his district will be combined with Sutton’s district in my opinion.

Texas

Racial stats: 44% white, 33% black, 19% Hispanic, 1% Asian, 1% other

I know that there are a lot of pockets of black and Hispanic voters in East Texas, so I wanted to see if it would be possible to make a minority-majority district in East Texas without going into Houston or Dallas at all. So I was able to make a meandering district that picks up minority voters in Galveston, Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Huntsville, Lufkin, Longview, Tyler, Texarkana, and Paris. It looks a bit like Cleo Fields’ old district in neighboring Louisiana, although this district emerges at just 33% black. Still, that might be enough to put a black Democrat through the primary and into office, as the entire district is just 44% white overall and many of those white voters are Republicans and wouldn’t vote in the Democratic primary anyway. I made this district before Dave put in the partisan data, so I haven’t calculated the presidential numbers yet, although I imagine that it was probably in the low 50s for McCain, nowhere near as Republican as the current East Texas districts.

So I know that many of these districts are highly theoretical, but I still thought it was an interesting exercise in seeing what is possible and what may even be required by law someday as voting rights law evolves. Let me know what you think of these districts and this subject!

I’m back.  Since Dave stole my idea to color-code by presidential vote, I’ve decided to see what would happen to Texas if there were no VRA and no partisan redistricting, therefore keeping counties and cities intact.  Here we go.

1st: No Incumbent Representative-R (R District)DARK BLUE

This district is a rural, conservative, Northeastern district, with some large towns in Longview, Texarkana, Greenville, and Paris.  Voting 69% for McCain and 76% White, this is an easy Republican incumbent hold.  Perhaps popular St Sen. Bob Deuell would run?

2nd: Louie Gohmert-R (R District)GREEN

Gohmert should be very happy here.  70% McCain, 72% White, containing Tyler, Palestine, and Nacogdoches.

3rd: Kevin Brady-R (R District)PURPLE

Brady should be pleased as well.  73% McCain and 79% White makes a Democratic representative all but impossible.  This district is Houston Suburbs.

4th: No Incumbent Representative (R District)RED

While not immune to a very very strong Democrat, this 59% McCain district containing large Black areas (21%) in Beaumont is still 64% White Texans in the Houston Area.  I have absolutely no clue who would represent this district.  Ideas?

5th: Ted Poe-R (R District)YELLOW

More fun with Houston suburbs.  Poe’s safe in a 55% McCain district, although not to the extent that he need never worry about re-election in a Democratic year.  This district is only 51% White, with 32% Hispanic.

6th: No Incumbent Representative (R District)GREENISH-BLUE

Due to gerrymandering and population growths, there are many open districts on this map, ten in total, I believe. Here’s another, at 61% McCain and 62% White.  I’d give it to State Sen. Dan Patrick

7th: John Culberson-R (R District)GRAY

West Houston and Suburbs make Culberson relatively safe.  54% McCain and 44% White, however, do not make him immune to a strong challenge.  This district is over 10% in four different races.

8th: Sheila Jackson-Lee-D (D District)PERIWINKLE

Our first Democratic district.  Central and East Houston are 65% Obama supporters and only 29% White, with a plurality Hispanic.  Barring a racial-primary, she’s safe.

9th: Al Green-D (D District)LIGHT BLUE

South Houston’s 9th is 71% Democratic and only 24% White, with 34% Hispanic and 34% Black,but a Black plurality.  Green’s safe.

10th: Gene Green-D (R District)PINK

I have a feeling Gene Green is gone, giving Republicans a 2010 pickup.  A suburban, 59% McCain district is not really what he wants, particularly a majority white one.  R + 1 seat (not PVI, just my tracker for who benefits from redistricting).

11th: Pete Olson-R (R District)LIGHT GREEN

This one could end up being Democratic by the end of the decade, but Pete Olson, who will force Ron Paul into retirement, should be safe for a bit, at 52% McCain in another suburban district.  Also 10% for four different races, with 52% White.

12th: No Incumbent Representative (R District)BLUE

Another open seat, this one based around Texas A&M.  66% McCain and 66% White gives this to a Republican, possibly St. Sen. Steve Ogden.

13th: Chet Edwards-D (R District)PEACH

Just because a district is 61% McCain does not mean Chet Edwards can’t survive, particularly since it contains his Waco base.  However, once he retires, it’s gone, and so we are at (R+2) for a 64% White district.

14th: Joe Barton-R (R District)PUKE

Now entering the Metroplex, Barton’s new district is 54% McCain and 68% White, containing Mesquite and other Eastern and Southern Suburbs.

15th: Eddie Bernice Johnson-D (D District)ORANGE

This is very diverse South Dallas, 39% Hispanic, 38% Black, and 21% White.  At 78% Obama, any Democrat is safe.

16th: Jeb Hensarling-R or Pete Sessions-R (S District)BRIGHT GREEN

North Dallas is less diverse, at 50% White and 49% McCain (so many districts have the same or similar percentage White and McCain), and so this district leans Republican while remaining a swing district.  This means the total is now (+ 1.5 R), and we get to have a contested primary too.

17th: Sam Johnson-R (R District)PURPLE

More DFW Suburbs, in Garland and Plano, and at 66% White, 57% McCain, Johnson’s more than fine here.

18th: No Incumbent Representative (R District)YELLOW

64% McCain, 80% White.  Need I say more?

19th: Kenny Marchant-R (R District)LIGHT GREEN

Marchant just got a lot safer in this Denton Co. district, at 62% McCain and 75% White.

20th: Michael Burgess-R (R District)PINK

The reason the Dallas area is so conservative.  A 62% McCain, 70% White suburban district, containing Irving and Euless.

21st: No Incumbent Representative (R District)MAROON

I think we’ve seen this one before.  57% McCain, Arlington and exurbs, 67% White equals another Republican, maybe St. Sen. Chris Harris.

22nd: Kay Granger-R (Swing District)BROWN

Granger may have slight issues here, at 53% Obama in a Fort Worth district.  I’d say she loses in a Democratic year to a strong challenger (+1 R).

23rd: No Incumbent Representative (R District)LIGHT BLUE

74% McCain,80% White gives this to any Wichita Falls-based Republican, or DFW exurbs. Granger might rather run here, but otherwise, St. Sen. Craig Estes may do so.

24th: No Incumbent Representative (R District)DARK PURPLE

A Victoria and Gulf Coast district, Ron Paul may run here instead, as it has much of his territory.  63% McCain and 57% White, with 33% Hispanic for Paul or another Republican.

25th: Lloyd Doggett-D (D District)ROSE

Austin can no longer be split into 50 districts under this plan, and so it is merely split into two. Doggett gets the liberal eastern portions, where i would assume UT lies, for 46% White and 73% Obama, with 35% Hispanic.

26th: John Carter-R (S District)GRAY

Score half a point for the Dems (+ .5 R)

West Austin, Round Rock, and Georgetown equal a 49-49 split, while still 77% White.  Carter is most likely safe, but open seats won’t be.

27th: Lamar Smith (R District)WEIRD GREEN

These San Antonio suburbs and surrounding rural areas are conservative,67% McCain and 73% White, and so I’m giving this district to the GOP.

28th: Ciro Rodriguez-D (S District)PINK

A half point for the GOP (+ 1 R).  Rodriguez’s 48% Dem, NW San Antonio district, although plurality Hispanic, is Republican, and Republican Hispanic representative outside of Florida is again a possiblity here.

29th: Charlie Gonzalez-D (D District)LIGHT PUKE

Gonzalez and successors are fine here in East San Antonio, at 53% Obama, they aren’t immune, however. Plurality Hispanic as well.

30th: Solomon Ortiz-D (S District)SALMON

Ortiz is probably fine, successors may not be (+ 1.5 R).  Containing some of San Antonio, all of Corpus Christi (who names a town after a dead body), and rural areas in between, this district is 52% Democrat and 64% Hispanic.  

31st: Ruben Hinojosa-D (D District)BEIGE

Kingsville, Brownsville, and Harlingen = 65% Obama, 84% Hispanic.  Maybe the most Hispanic district in the nation?  Hinojosa is fine.

32nd: No Incumbent Representative (D District)ORANGE

now down to R + 1 again.  McAllen and border/rural S. Texas-based district is perfect for a Hispanic Democrat at 86% Hispanic (I spoke too soon) and 67% Obama.  I’d go with St. Sen. Juan Hinjosa (is there a relation here?)

33rd: Henry Cuellar-D (R District)BLUE

Yeah, I know this is horrible for the Dems (R + 2), containing both Hispanic Laredo, Del Rio, and Eagle Pass and the White Plains, but it turned out that way.  44% Obama and 61% Hispanic means another Hispanic Republican, possibly.

34th: Mac Thornberry-R (R District)GREEN

Amarillo, Plains, 77% McCain, 66% White.  Enough said.

35th: Randy Neugebauer-R (R District)PURPLE

Lubbock, Midland, Odessa, 68% McCain, 53% White.  Also enough said.

36th: Silvestre Reyes-D (D District)MAC N CHEESE (Thanks, Crayola)

El Paso gets the last district in Texas, and it’s safe, at 65% Obama and 77% Hispanic.

Oh, and by the way, Mike McCaul is gone, as is Ralph Hall, as is Mike Conoway.  They can retire.

So we go from (2009): 8D, 3S, 1 Chet Edwards, and 20 R to (2012): 8D, 5S, 1 Chet Edwards, and 21 R.

The End.

AR-Sen: SSP hero and perfect fuckup Bill Sali held yard sales to raise money for his flailing campaign. GOP senate hopeful Kim Hendren is doing him one better: He’s selling five of his black angus cows. Moo.

KY-Sen: Like rival Jack Conway, Dem Dan Mongiardo is making a small, made-for-media ad buy criticizing Jim Bunning’s fight against unemployment benefits, and specifically calls out teabaggers. Mongiardo being Mongiardo, though, his spokesbot can’t resist taking a douchey shot at Conway’s ad. Seems like sour grapes, since Conway’s team thought of the idea first.

NY-Gov: Headline for the times, from the Times: “Paterson Still Governor, for Now.” Also, Generalissimo Francisco Franco still dead. Only one of these statements is likely to remain true for much longer.

TX-Gov: The battle lines have been drawn, and it’ll be secessionista Rick Perry vs. former Houston Mayor Bill White. Rasmussen sees Perry leading 49-43, not much changed from the 47-41 he had it in late February. White has 54-34 favorables, while Perry is at 54-46. Though since Ras (contra every other pollster) likes to look at only “very favorable” and “very unfavorable” scores, it’s worth noting that Perry is at just 18-23 by that metric, while White is at 25-13. Whoops!

AL-05: Minority Leader John Boehner is bringing his orange perma-tan with him to Alabama to do a fundraiser for turncoat Parker Griffith. Griffith’s two teabaggy opponents are furious about this turn of events and trying to get some mileage out of casting Griffith as the establishment choice. With DC as toxic as it’s ever been, maybe that’ll work. Still, I think Griffith is most likely to be defeated if the uber-wingnuts unite around a single candidate (see IL-14).

FL-08: Dem Rep. Alan Grayson released a stunty poll of the Republican primary in his race… but included his own name – and he’s leading the pack. I’ve never heard of the pollster, Middleton Market Research, but their CEO is listed on LinkedIn as a “Senior Account Executive at To be determined.”

FL-17: Another candidate got into the race to replace Kendrick Meek today: North Miami City Commissioner Scott Galvin. Galvin is the first white candidate in this 58% African American district.

GA-09: GOP Rep. Nathan Deal now says that he’ll delay his resignation from the House until March 31st, so that he can vote against any healthcare legislation. This is probably a stunt to help Deal impress the Republican electorate, since he’s trailed badly in all polling for the GA-Gov GOP nomination. Deal doesn’t want to stay too much longer, though, since he’s just one step ahead of an Ethics Committee investigation.

MS-01: Ah, cat fud. FOX Newser Angela McGlowan, a GOP candidate vying to take on Travis Childers, won’t commit to backing the establishment favorite, state Sen. Alan Nunnelee if he should win the primary. This is exactly what the Republicans don’t want, of course, since a bitterly divided primary in 2008 helped hand this seat to Childers in the first place. It’s all the more remarkabe given how much effort the NRCC put into clearing the field for Nunnelee. I almost wonder if state Sen. Merle Flowers, who deferred to Nunnelee but did not endorse him, might be re-considering.

NY-29: Is this going to get worse before it gets better? The House Committee just launched an investigation into whatever it is Eric Massa is alleged to have done. Meanwhile, Massa is laying low – he’s missed several votes (including one on the jobs bill) since his announcement.

PA-12: Former Murtha aide Mark Critz says that he’s raised over $100,000 so far for his special election bid to replace his boss. Meanwhile, Critz’s opponent for the Democratic nomination, ex-Treasurer Barbara Hafer, is pre-emptively doing all she can to discredit the nomination process, as well as pressing for the release of Critz’s testimony to the House Ethics Committee. (J) On the Republican side, businessman Tim Burns has launched a teeny-weeny radio ad buy.

Netroots Nation: Thinking about heading to the progressive confab that is Netroots Nation? Well, MT Gov. Brian Schweitzer has already reserved a seat. He’ll be the keynote speaker on the convention’s opening night.

Redistricting: The National Democratic Redistricting Trust, a new group designed to support Dems in the inevitable legal battles over redistricting, has asked the FEC whether member of Congress can raise soft money to support the trust’s efforts.

• AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln is up with her first ad, as she runs for the Republican nomination for the Senate race. Wait… what? She’s running as a Democrat? Hmmm, that’s not what her ad says, as it’s a list of every which way she’s bucked the Democratic party line in the last year (and closing by saying “I don’t answer to my party, I answer to Arkansas”). That’d make sense if she were running in the general election, but there’s a little matter of her having to get out of the primary first… Meanwhile, the base continues to abandon Lincoln; today it was EMILY’s List, who say they won’t be lifting a finger to help Lincoln. She may still get a lifeline from Bill Clinton, though, who’s continuing to back her. And Bill Halter better be committed to seeing this Senate primary thing through, because state Sen. Shane Broadway just filed to run to keep the Lt. Governor spot in Democratic hands.

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Republican polling firm Magellan (apparently not working on behalf of any candidates) issued more polls of the two Republican primaries in California. The polls are pretty much in line with what everyone else is seeing: on the Senate side, Tom Campbell leads at 33, followed by Carly Fiorina at 20 and Chuck DeVore at least cracking double-digits at 11. For the gubernatorial race, Meg Whitman is cruising, beating Steve Poizner 63-12.

• CT-Sen: When it comes to the Connecticut senate race, Dick Blumenthal is the Superfly TNT. Hell, he’s the Guns of the Navarone. In fact, he lays a massive mushroom cloud on Linda McMahon (60-31), Rob Simmons (58-32) and Peter Schiff (57-27) alike — and yes, this is according to Rasmussen. (D)

• IL-Sen: In an interview with the Chicago Tribune’s editorial board, Alexi Giannoulias said he believes his family’s bank is likely to get EATED (as Atrios would say) by the FDIC in the coming months. Perhaps worse, the Trib says that Giannoulias isn’t being forthcoming about what he knew about the bank’s loans to convicted bookmaker and pimp (i.e. mobster) Michael “Jaws” Giorango. Ugh. (D)

• KY-Sen: If the Dems are seeing a bit of an uptick in selected polls lately, they aren’t seeing it in Kentucky yet, at least not if Rasmussen has anything to say about it. Rand Paul leads Jack Conway 46-38 and Dan Mongiardo 49-35, while Trey Grayson leads Conway 45-35 and Mongiardo 44-37. Not much change in the trendlines, except for, oddly, Mongiardo’s standing vis-à-vis Grayson improves while Conway’s slips. Meanwhile, Conway is hitting the airwaves with a new TV spot, wisely taking Jim Bunning’s one-man crusade against unemployed people and hanging it around the necks of Paul and Grayson.

• NJ-Sen: Apparently the 2010 elections are just too boring. Farleigh Dickinson University tested Sen. Bob Menendez versus his 2006 opponent, Tom Kean, Jr., finding a tie (39-38 for Kean, with 17% undecided). Seriously, though, testing horserace numbers this far out just seems silly. Can you imagine what similar polls would have shown for the GOP in 2004? (D)

• NV-Sen: Jon Ralston sits down for a chat with erstwhile Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian, a.k.a. the only man who can inadvertently save Harry Reid. Ashjian, a wealthy contractor (whose company has more than its share of complaints and liens), plans to fund his own way, and discounts claims that he’s somehow being put up to it by the Reid camp as a vote-splitter.

• NY-Sen-B: Sigh, what could have been… Harold Ford Jr. met with Karl Rove in 2004 to discuss the possibility of running for Senate in Tennessee in 2006… as a Republican. Ford isn’t denying the meeting, but, in his, um, defense? says that it was Rove’s idea.

• UT-Sen: Bob Bennett keeps on being a punching bag for the GOP’s right wing, and today the Club for Growth weighed in with an anti-Bennett ad, airing on (where else?) the Fox News Channel in Utah. It’s targeted purely at state GOP insiders, urging them to send anti-Bennett delegates to the state nominating convention. The CfG hasn’t settled on one particular candidate they’re for; all they know is who they’re against.

• GA-Gov: PPP follows up its Georgia general election numbers from yesterday with a look at the Republican gubernatorial primary. (The Democratic primary seems to look like an adequately foregone conclusion to them.) No surprises: Insurance Comm. John Oxendine leads at 27, followed by Karen Handel at 19, Nathan Deal at 13, Austin Scott and Eric Johnson at 3, and Jeff Chapman and Ray McBerry at 2.

• MD-Gov: There’s been lots of focus on the leaked RNC strategy document today, mostly for its rather shameless descriptions of its fundraising plans. There are a few noteworthy strategic items here, though — maybe most interestingly, they’ve totally left Michael Steele’s home state of Maryland off the list of gubernatorial races they’re pushing. It remains to be seen whether it’s because Bob Ehrlich isn’t getting in after all, they don’t think he has a ghost of a chance, or just general RNC bungling. (Also interesting: on the Senate side, they’re even targeting Charles Schumer, but they’ve left off Patty Murray, which may suggest it isn’t getting any better for the GOP than Don Benton in Washington.)

• MI-Gov: Two endorsements in the pipeline in the Michigan gubernatorial race. Mike Huckabee weighed in on the GOP side, picking AG Mike Cox, calling him the “pro-life, pro-gun” candidate over the probably more right-wing Rep. Peter Hoekstra. (I’m not sure how much pull Huckabee has in Michigan. As for me, I’m waiting to see who Ted Nugent endorses.) On the Dem side, this is still purely rumor, but the word is that the United Auto Workers plan to endorse Lansing mayor Virg Bernero (who showed he had their backs with his passionate televised defenses of the auto bailout). The stamp of the state’s most powerful union would go a long way toward uniting union backing behind one Dem.

• NY-Gov: The clock seems to be ticking even louder for David Paterson, as today one of his top aides, spokesperson Peter Kauffmann, resigned and distanced himself. Kauffmann said that, in light of the ethics ruling about the World Series tickets, he could no longer “in good conscience continue.”

• OH-Gov, OH-01: VPOTUS Watch: Joey Joe Joe Biden Shabadoo will visit Cleveland on March 15 to do a fundraiser for Gov. Ted Strickland. He’ll also be doing a separate event for Rep. Steve Driehaus. (D)

• AR-01: The fields for both sides in the open seat left behind by Rep. Marion Berry are slow to take shape, but it looks like the Democrats found a decent-sounding candidate who can bring some of his own money with him. Terry Green, an orthopedic surgeon with his own practice, has filed, sounding some populist notes in his first comments to the press.

• IL-08: Ah, the party of fiscal responsibility. Joe Walsh, the GOP’s candidate in the 8th, stopped making mortgage payments on his Evanston condominium in May 2009 and lost it to foreclosure in October. Putting a positive spin on it, Walsh says “This experience helped me gain a better appreciation for the very real economic anxieties felt by 8th District families.”

• MI-03: Here’s a positive development: Democrats are actually lining up to contest the R+6 open seat in Grand Rapids left behind by retiring GOP Rep. Vern Ehlers. Former Kent Co. Commissioner Paul Mayhue is about to enter the Dem field, where he’ll join attorney Patrick Miles.

• MI-06: Ex-state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk, who was badly beaten by Carl Levin in 2008’s Senate race, is now setting his sights on knocking off incumbent Rep. Fred Upton in the Republican primary. Hoogendyk, who has yet to make a decision on the race, sent out an email to supporters blasting Upton for his votes in favor of TARP, No Child Left Behind, and S-CHIP. Upton’s district has an even PVI, and went for Bush twice by seven-point margins before Obama won the district by a comfy 54-45 spread in ’08. (J)

• NH-01: A run in the 1st by RNC committee member Sean Mahoney is now looking much likelier, even though he’d scoped out the race and decided against it last year. Last year, it was looking like former Manchester mayor Frank Guinta had the nomination to himself, but Guinta’s bad fundraising and bad press have lured a few other contenders into the GOP field.

• NY-15: With Charlie Rangel’s position looking increasingly precarious, CQ takes a look at some possible names who might replace him, should he decide not to seek another term (including state Sen. Bill Perkins, Assemblymen Keith Wright and Adriano Espaillat, and city councilors Inez Dickens and Robert Jackson). He already has a few primary challengers – former aide Vincent Morgan and possibly Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV. Meanwhile, the chairmanship of Rangel’s Ways & Means Committee has hopscotched around in the last few days, to California’s Pete Stark and today to the less-controversial Michigan’s Sander Levin. The chair of this powerful committee (which oversees tax laws) tends to rake in tons of campaign contributions – and dole them out to fellow caucus members, so it’s worth keeping an eye on who actually replaces Rangel on a permanent basis. (This is also why so many peeps have returned money to Rangel – because he’s given out so much.) (D)

• New York: Could he really be eyeing a comeback? According to Time Magazine, Eliot Spitzer is “bored out of his mind” these days, but also says he doesn’t want to subject his family to the inevitable ugliness that would ensue if he ran for something again. Meanwhile, former Spitzer confidante Lloyd Constantine, the man Spitzer called right before the news of his involvement with prostitutes broke, has turned on his former mentee with a new tell-all book. The stars are definitely not aligned for Spitz, if they ever were. (D)

• Maps: You know you love them (otherwise you wouldn’t be at SSP). And jeffmd has a whole new bunch of ’em, looking at the results of the Texas Republican gubernatorial primary and how they might translate into the general.

• Healthcare: The Wall Street Journal has a chart laying out how members of the House might vote on the next iteration of the healthcare reform bill, listing public statements (if any) they’ve made since the last vote. This really should be in wiki form, though – for instance, they don’t have Mike Arcuri’s remarks (see Morning Digest). (D)

• Redistricting: The NYT takes a look at the people who applied for a spot on California’s state legislative redistricting commission. Fourteen spots have been set aside for ordinary citizens… and 31,000 people (including probably at least a few SSPers!) applied. Progress Illinois also has a detailed look today at the new proposals underway to make the redistricting process fairer (or at least less random).

• Blogosphere: Finally, we’re sad to see one of our favorite blogs apparently calling it quits. Over the last two years, Campaign Diaries became a must-read, both for insightful analysis and for making sure that no comings-and-goings in any races fell through the cracks. We wish Taniel well in his next endeavors.

I had been working on Texas maps for a few months but wasn’t fully sure about how my districts would turn out without political data. Now that Dave’s Redistricting App has political data for Texas, I have created a 36 seat map that should produce a 25-11 GOP majority. All current incumbents remain safe for the near future, with the exception of Chet Edwards, whose seat is completely dismantled. Four new seats are created, one for the Dems, and three for the GOP. It was interesting to see what’s possible, though I definitely wouldn’t support this plan in real life. Here are some maps as well as my analysis of each district:

Whole State

The Districts

East Texas

District 1 (Blue): East Texas-Tyler, Longview, Texarkana; Louie Gohmert (R)

New 2008 results: 68% McCain-32% Obama

Old 2008 results: 69% McCain-31% Obama

Racial stats: 70% white, 20% black, 8% Hispanic

This is still a solidly-Republican district in East Texas, although the district moves north slightly. Louie Gohmert or any Republican will be more than safe here.

Houston

District 2 (Dark Green): Montgomery County, Humble, Northern Harris County, Fort Bend County; Ted Poe (R)

New 2008 results: 61% McCain-38% Obama

Old 2008 results: 60% McCain-40% Obama

Racial stats: 66% white, 18% Hispanic, 11% black, 5% Asian

This district loses nearly all of its territory in East Texas, including Democratic areas in Liberty, Port Arthur, and Beaumont. It now reaches into Montgomery County. It also stretches down into Brazoria and Fort Bend Counties, as well as Pasadena to help shore up Pete Olson. Still a safe GOP district, and the Republican performance in fact increases.

District 7 (Gray): Houston and western Harris County, Katy; John Culberson (R)

New 2008 results: 62% McCain-37% Obama

Old 2008 results: 58% McCain-41% Obama

Racial stats: 65% white, 20% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 6% black

This district remains, at its core, a heavily Republican district, and in fact becomes more Republican, although the demographics are shifting. Culberson will probably not be in much danger anytime soon seeing as he faced a decent opponent in 2008 and still did very well. The district had to lose some of its Republican areas in the northern half to help create TX-36, a new Republican district, but gains areas to the west from TX-10

District 8 (Light Blueish Purple): Montgomery County, East Texas; Kevin Brady (R)

New 2008 results: 63% McCain-36% Obama

Old 2008 results:  74% McCain-26% Obama

Racial stats: 71% white, 19% black, 8% Hispanic

This district sees a huge drop in Republican performance to help shore up some neighboring districts, but it should not put the GOP in any electoral danger anytime soon. It loses territory in Montgomery County to TX-02 and the new Republican TX-36 and picks up the Democratic areas of Liberty, Beaumont, and Port Arthur from TX-02. Maybe with the diminished influence of Montgomery County Jim Turner or Nick Lampson could have won here in 2004.

District 9 (Light Blue): Southern Harris County; Al Green (D)

New 2008 results: 74% Obama-25% McCain

Old 2008 results: 77% Obama-23% McCain

Racial stats: 34% black, 32% Hispanic, 21% white, 13% Asian

This district keeps a black plurality and remains safely Democratic, so Al Green should be happy and protected from a primary challenge by a Hispanic for the time being. The district became 3 points less Democratic for contiguity reasons, but changed very little.

District 14 (Bronze): Galveston, Brazoria County, Texas coastline; Ron Paul (R)

New 2008 results: 64% McCain-35% Obama

Old 2008 results: 66% McCain-33% Obama

Racial stats: 63% white, 22% Hispanic, 12% black

This district loses its share of Fort Bend County as well as all of Victoria County, but it gains all of Galveston County from TX-22 and some areas from TX-15 and TX-27. Republican performance decreases somewhat, but Ron Paul or any Republican should still be safe here for a long time.

District 18 (Banana Yellow): Houston; Sheila Jackson-Lee (D)

New 2008 results: 83% Obama-17% McCain

Old 2008 results: 77% Obama-22% McCain

Racial stats: 49% black, 31% Hispanic, 15% white

This is now the most Democratic district in Texas and also the most partisan for either party, with a whopping 66% margin for Obama. The black percentage rises to 49%, which will probably isolate Sheila Jackson-Lee from a Hispanic primary challenge, although Al Green may push for some of those black voters for his own district. The Republican and competitive areas on the western edge of the district are lost to the new TX-36, and in return the district picks up some more territory to the south from TX-09.

District 22 (Brown): Sugar Land, Pearland, Pasadena, Rosenberg; Pete Olson (R)

New 2008 results: 61% McCain-38% Obama

Old 2008 results: 58% McCain-41% Obama

Racial stats: 62% white, 19% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 8% black

This already Republican district becomes even more GOP-friendly, and the district shrinks, losing Democratic areas in Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties to TX-02 and all of its territory in Galveston County to TX-14. Pete Olson should be more than okay for now, although the demographics in the district may shift over the next decade. He would probably have performed better against Lampson in 2008 in this district as it lacks now lacks any of Galveston County.

District 29 (Light Grayish Olive): Houston; Gene Green (D)

New 2008 results: 63% Obama-37% McCain

Old 2008 results: 62% Obama-38% McCain

Racial stats: 66% Hispanic, 22% white, 10% black

This district is essentially unchanged from its current form as a Democratic and Hispanic-majority East Houston district, so the only thing Gene Green has to worry about is a Hispanic primary challenger, although that hasn’t been a losing issue for him yet over the last 18 years.

District 36 (Mango): Houston, Conroe, Montgomery County; new Republican district

New 2008 results: 62% McCain-37% Obama

Old 2008 results: New district

Racial stats: 65% white, 23% Hispanic, 7% black, 5% Asian

I thought there was still room in the Houston area to create a new Republican district without really weakening any Republican incumbents and it was indeed possible to so. The district takes all the Republican western parts of Sheila Jackson-Lee’s district and also takes a bit from Culberson, Poe, and McCaul’s districts, although it doesn’t put any of them in serious danger electorally. It also gets a big GOP boost by taking a lot of of Montgomery County from TX-08, which pushes it over the 60% mark. If the Republicans can’t win this new seat it would be shocking.

Dallas/Forth Worth Area

District 3 (Grapy Purple): Plano, Garland; Sam Johnson (R)

New 2008 results: 57 % McCain-42% Obama

Old 2008 results: 57% McCain-42% Obama

Racial stats: 66% white, 16% Hispanic, 9% black, 9% Asian

This district’s 2008 results remain the same, but the district itself changes. The district moves north and east to take in some Collin County areas from TX-04 and loses some Republican areas in Plano to make TX-32 safer. This district should remain in GOP hands for the immediate future, even after Sam Johnson retires.

District 4 (Red): North Texas border counties, Fort Worth suburbs, Denton, Collin County; Ralph Hall (R)

New 2008 results: 67% McCain-32% Obama

Old 2008 results: 69% McCain-30% Obama

Racial stats: 80% white, 10% Hispanic, 7% black

This district becomes a bit less Republican, losing some of its East Texas counties to TX-01 and TX-05 and some of its Collin County territory. It also picks up Democratic areas in Denton to strengthen TX-26. It’s more than safe for Hall or any Republican, although it’s quite different from the East Texas-based district that Hall was elected from earlier in his career.

District 5 (Yellow): Northeast Dallas, rural East Texas counties; Jeb Hensarling (R)

New 2008 results: 63% McCain-36% Obama

Old 2008 results: 63% McCain-36 Obama

Racial stats: 72% white, 14% Hispanic, 12 % black

This district changes geographically but the political realities remain mostly the same, with the district losing some Democratic areas to TX-30 and the rural East Texas part of the district moving north somewhat. Still a safe GOP seat for a while to come.

District 6 (Dark Teal): Arlington, Forth Worth suburbs, Ennis; Joe Barton (R)

New 2008 results: 62% McCain-37% Obama

Old 2008 results: 60% McCain-40% Obama

70% white, 14% Hispanic, 11% white

The district remains essentially in its present form, although it loses some of the southern parts of the district to TX-17. The district becomes more Republican as it loses some Democratic areas in Tarrant County.

District 12 (Periwinkle): Forth Worth, Weatherford; Kay Granger (R)

New 2008 results: 60% McCain-39% Obama

Old 2008 results: 63% McCain-36% Obama

Racial stats: 64% white, 25% Hispanic, 6% black

This district becomes smaller in area as it loses Wise County and much of Parker County to TX-26, but it remains quite Republican. That combined with Kay Granger’s popularity in Forth Worth should keep it red.

District 24 (Dark Purple): Lewisville, Irving, Carollton, Hurst; Kenny Marchant (R)

New 2008 results: 62% McCain-37% Obama

Old 2008 results: 55% McCain-44% Obama

Racial stats: 71% white, 15% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 6% black

While this district may be trending Democratic in the long-term, the southern parts of the district that were more Democratic such as Grand Prairie and Duncanville are now in the new TX-35. The new district is also 71% white, which counters many of the demographic shifts over the past district. The result is a 7% jump in Republican performance, which should keep Kenny Marchant or another Republican safe for the next decade.

District 26 (Dark Gray): Denton suburbs, Fort Worth, Flower Mound, Wise/Parker counties; Michael Burgess (R)

New 2008 results: 62% McCain-38% Obama

Old 2008 results: 58% McCain-41% Obama

Racial stats: 71% white, 14% black, 12% Hispanic

Any improvements that Democrats have made in Fort Worth and Denton County will be cancelled out by this plan. This already Republican district picks up most of the Wise and Parker County areas from TX-12, and the Democratic parts of Denton go to TX-04, which remains quite Republican as well. I didn’t touch the Fort Worth part of the district, which is a remnant of the dismantling of Martin Frost’s old TX-24 and has a lot of Democrats, but it shouldn’t matter too much for now because of Republican strength elsewhere. The district should be a safe GOP hold throughout the decade.

District 30 (Orangish Pink): Dallas; Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)

New 2008 results: 79% Obama-21% McCain

Old 2008 results: 82% Obama-18% McCain

Racial stats: 39% black, 32% Hispanic, 27% white

This remains a heavily Democratic, black-plurality district based in metro Dallas that Eddie Bernice Johnson should be more than happy with. It changes very little although it trades a little territory with TX-05 and TX-32, as well as the new TX-35.

District 32 (Burnt Orange): Dallas, Plano, Richardson, University/Highland Park; Pete Sessions (R)

New 2008 results: 61% McCain-37% Obama

Old 2008 results: 53% McCain-46% Obama

Racial stats: 75% white, 16% Hispanic, 6% black

Perhaps no GOP district swung more to the Democrats than Pete Sessions’ TX-32, which gave John McCain a measly 7% margin of victory in 2008. The district in its current form has only a white plurality, although now it is 74% white. The district becomes more Republican by expanding north into Plano and losing minority areas in Irving and Cockrell Hill to the new TX-35, so Pete Sessions should be safe in his new district, although who knows how demographics will change over the next decade.

District 35 (Grapish Purple): Dallas, Duncanville, Fort Worth, Irving, Cockrell Hill; new Democratic district

New 2008 results: 63% Obama-35% McCain

Old 2008 results: New district

Racial stats: 38% white, 35% Hispanic, 20% black, 6% Asian

In order to make TX-24, TX-26, and TX-32 more safely Republican, I thought it was necessary to draw a new Democratic seat in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The population growth in the area requires at least one new district around here, and the GOP is stretched pretty thin as it is. So this very-Democratic majority-minority district, which is a bit like Martin Frost’s 2002-2004 district, is created as a result. I think it will probably elect a Hispanic, but I don’t know what the voting-age stats for the district, so maybe Hispanics have less influence than it would seem from the surface. This should be a safe Democratic pickup.

Austin/Central Texas

District 10 (Magenta): Austin/northern Travis County, Hays County, western Harris County; Mike McCaul (R)

New 2008 results: 58% McCain-40% Obama

Old 2008 results: 55% McCain-44% Obama

Racial stats: 74% white, 14% Hispanic, 6% black, 5% Asian

This district has been trending more Democratic and it remains similar to its current form, with a few tweaks to make it more Republican as McCain’s 2008 performance increases by 3 points. It loses some of its Democratic areas in Austin and takes in the more conservative areas of Travis County in the north and west, as well as the conservative western half of Hays County. The eastern half of the district, especially in Harris County, loses its influence somewhat as a result. Also, the Hispanic population is reduced to just 14%. This is now much friendlier turf for Mike McCaul.

District 17 (Dark Blueish Purple): Forth Worth suburbs, Bryan, Huntsville, Lufkin, several rural East Texas counties; Chet Edwards (D) or Republican pickup

New 2008 results: 67% McCain-32% Obama

Old 2008 results: 67% McCain-32% Obama

Racial stats: 69% white, 15% black, 13% Hispanic

Chet Edwards will have a difficult time winning reelection with this map, as he sees his current district dismantled. His base in Waco is put in a new heavily Republican 33rd district along with Wichita Falls and West Texas, while TX-17 retains the more hostile parts of his current district and picks up Republican areas to the east from TX-06, TX-08, and TX-01. I think that Edwards would run in this district as it has more of his current territory, although the East Texas parts of the district would probably be very hostile to him. But Edwards is a fighter and may well survive in this district, just as he has in his current district.

District 25 (Dark Pink): Austin, San Marcos; Lloyd Doggett (D)

New 2008 results: 68% Obama-31% McCain

Old 2008 results: 59% Obama-40% McCain

Racial stats: 51% white, 34% Hispanic, 10% black, 5% Asian

In order to make TX-10 safer for McCaul and create a new Republican TX-34, this district becomes even more of an Austin district and a Democratic stronghold, with Obama’s performance increasing by 9 points to a whopping 68%. The GOP has kind of already ceded this district to Lloyd Doggett, and he will have a much friendlier district.

District 31 (Beige): Temple, Williamson County, Brady, rural West Texas counties

New 2008 results: 61% McCain-37% Obama

Old 2008 results: 58% McCain-42% Obama

Racial stats: 75% white, 16% Hispanic, 6% black

This district becomes more Republican in order to protect John Carter from any possible shifts in Williamson County over the next decade. His district loses Killeen and Temple and some of the northern counties, but gains area in West Texas from TX-11 and TX-21. It should remain easily Republican for the near future.

District 33 (Ocean Blue): Waco, Wichita Falls, North Texas border counties; Chet Edwards (D) or new Republican district

New 2008 results: 71% McCain-29% Obama

Old 2008 results: New district

Racial stats: 77% white, 13% Hispanic, 8% black

This district is heavily Republican and combines parts of West and North Texas from TX-13 such as Wichita Falls, Erath County from TX-31, and parts of Chet Edwards’ 17th district, including his base in Waco. Edwards could run here because it has parts of his old district, most importantly Waco, but it would be an uphill battle given the new territory in North/West Texas. If Edwards doesn’t run here, consider it a safe GOP pickup.

West Texas

District 11 (Lime Green): Midland/Odessa, San Angelo, Killeen; Mike Conaway (R)

New 2008 results: 68% McCain-31% Obama

Old 2008 results: 76% McCain-24% Obama

Racial stats: 57% white, 29% Hispanic, 10% black

While the Republican performance drops 8 points from the current district, it remains extremely Republican. The district loses much of its northern territory to TX-19, and as a result, it shifts east and south to take in territory from TX-21 and TX-23. It also takes in the Democratic areas of Killeen in Bell County, which in turn helps make TX-31 more Republican.

District 13 (Tannish Brown): Amarillo, Abilene; Mac Thornberry (R)

New 2008 results: 77% McCain-22% Obama

Old 2008 results: 77% McCain-23% Obama

Racial stats: 70% white, 23% Hispanic, 5% black

This is still the most Republican district in Texas and one of the most Republican districts in the nation. It changes significantly, losing Wichita Falls and most of the eastern territory to the new TX-33, but picks up Abilene and shifts south into the current TX-19. Interestingly, it is quite possible that if Charlie Stenholm had run in this district in 2004 he could have survived as it has much of his rural base and Abilene. But no other Democrat will win this district for a long time.

District 16 (Bright Green): El Paso; Silvestre Reyes (D)

New 2008 results: 65% Obama-34% McCain

Old 2008 results: 66% Obama-34% McCain

Racial stats: 76% Hispanic, 18% white

This district doesn’t change much at all and remains based in El Paso as a heavily Democratic and Hispanic district. Silvestre Reyes will be in office for as long as he wants.

District 19 (Olive Green): Lubbock, West/Central Texas, Temple; Randy Neugebauer (R)

New 2008 results: 71% McCain, 28% Obama

Old 2008 results: 72% McCain, 27% Obama

Racial stats: 64% white, 26% Hispanic, 8% black

The district loses the city of Abilene and much of its northern territory to TX-13, so it expands eastward to take in parts of TX-31 and picks up Temple and Democratic areas in Bell County. The district becomes only slightly less Republican and Neugebauer and the GOP can consider it a safe hold for years to come.

South Texas

District 15 (Orange): McAllen, Harlingen, Alice; Ruben Hinojosa (D)

New 2008 results: 64% Obama-35% McCain

Old 2008 results: 60% Obama-40% McCain

Racial stats: 84% Hispanic, 15% white

While several of the northwestern counties are lost to the new TX-34 and TX-14, the district remains centered on the border cities of McAllen and Harlingen. It is one of the most Hispanic districts in the country, and Democratic performance increases as well, making victory assured for Hinojosa or any Hispanic Democrat running here.

District 27 (Greenish Turquoise): Corpus Christi, Brownsville; Solomon Ortiz (D)

New 2008 results: 54% McCain-45% Obama

Old 2008 results: 53% McCain-46% Obama

Racial stats: 70% Hispanic, 26% white

This district is virtually unchanged and remains heavily Hispanic and safe for Solomon Ortiz. It only went for Obama by 9 points in 2008 and probably voted for Bush by in 2004, although I don’t think this will become a Republican seat any time soon and I wasn’t going to try at the expense of the new Republican Hill Country district, TX-34.

District 28 (Rose Pink): Laredo, Brownsville; Henry Cuellar (D)

New 2008 results: 63% Obama-36% McCain

Old 2008 results: 56% Obama-44% McCain

Racial stats: 84% Hispanic, 14% white

After losing several eastern Republican counties to the new TX-34, Democratic performance in this district goes up by 7 points, and at 84% it is possibly the most Hispanic district in the country. I wonder if maybe this district could get a better representative than Henry Cuellar now that it is more Democratic…

District 34 (Tropical Green): Austin, Victoria, Texas Hill Country; new Republican district

New 2008 results: 58% McCain-41% Obama

Old 2008 results: New district

Racial stats: 59% white, 30% Hispanic, 8% black

This is one of the most diverse districts in the entire state, containing liberal areas in Austin, conservative areas west of Houston, Victoria and the Central Texas counties known as the Texas Hill Country, and Hispanic areas in South Texas stretching nearly to the Mexican border. It is derived from seven current districts: TX-10, TX-14, TX-15, TX-21, TX-22, TX-25, and TX-28.While the district is just 59% white, it is still very Republican, and would probably elected a Republican easily enough. The demographics may change considerably by the end of the decade though.

San Antonio

District 20 (Peach): San Antonio; Charlie Gonzalez (D)

New 2008 results: 63% Obama, 35% McCain

Old 2008 results: 63% Obama, 36% McCain

Racial stats: 68% Hispanic, 23% white, 6% black

Essentially the same district centered on the city of San Antonio; remains heavily Hispanic and Democratic and becomes even more compact. Not a liability for the Democrats or for Charlie Gonzalez.

District 21 (Reddish Brown): Northern Bexar County/San Antonio, New Braunfels; Lamar Smith (R)

New 2008 results: 61% McCain-38% Obama

Old 2008 results: 58% McCain-41% Obama

Racial stats: 64% white, 24% Hispanic, 8% black

Lamar Smith’s district contracts in area, losing its portions of Travis County and Austin, as well as much of its western parts. It is now almost entirely a Bexar County district, gaining Republican areas from TX-23, which increases the GOP performance by three points, making it an easy hold for the GOP.

District 23 (Sky Blue): El Paso, San Antonio, Eagle Pass; Ciro Rodriguez (D)

New 2008 results: 57% Obama-42% McCain

Old 2008 results: 51% Obama-48% McCain

Racial stats: 68% Hispanic, 26% white

This district goes from swing to heavily Democratic, in large part because of the need for the Republican counties to the north to be taken up by TX-11 and the population growth along the border counties. I think the GOP will concede this one to Rodriguez to avoid weakening TX-21, as well as to make sure that they don’t violate the VRA and have a court redraw the districts again as was the case with the old TX-23 represented by Henry Bonilla from 2004 to 2006. This district was trending Democratic already anyway, now that process is just being accelerated.

• AZ-Sen: Tensions between John McCain and Arizona’s state GOP chair Randy Pullen (who’s more linked to the conservative grassroots than McCain’s camp) are reaching a head; Pullen pulled his endorsement of McCain after the two scuffled over money for party GOTV efforts. McCain is planning a weird end-run around the state party involving funneling money through the Yuma County GOP. It remains to be seen whether J.D. Hayworth will benefit from the inside-baseball civil war; Hayworth, meanwhile, is finding that birtherism doesn’t play as well once you’re on the big stage instead of the AM-radio fringes: he’s trying to walk back his previous birther-curious remarks, just saying he was trying to “provoke conversation.”

• FL-Sen: There might be some legs to the Marco Rubio expenses story that go beyond his use of the GOP state party’s credit card. Now he’s admitting that he double-billed both state taxpayers and the state GOP for eight different flights he took while state House speaker.

• KS-Sen: Here’s one less thing Republican Rep. Todd Tiahrt has to worry about: the Appropriations Committee veteran was cleared by the House Ethics committee over his links to sketchy lobbying firm PMA. Rep. Jerry Moran won’t be able to use that against him in their Senate primary, but regardless, Tiahrt is still having trouble keeping pace with Moran in the polls.

• KY-Sen: Here’s a strange exchange between the Trey Grayson and Rand Paul camps. After Paul accused Grayson of having voted for Bill Clinton, Grayson responded that Paul voted for known whackjob Ron Paul for President, to which Rand said “It’s hard for me to imagine anyone not voting for his own father.” Meanwhile, Grayson is also still hitting Paul hard over the coal issue, and that could be an issue that, assuming Paul wins the primary, his Democratic nominee could keep getting a lot of mileage out of.

• MD-Sen: Rasmussen actually bothered polling the Maryland Senate race, although they only used “Generic Republican” as Barbara Mikulski’s opposition. She still wins easily, 54-36. Queen Anne’s County Councilor and wealthy physician Eric Wargotz is moving toward entering the race, and former state Del. Carmen Amedori has already filed, so why the use of Generic R, though?

• NY-Sen-B: Harold Ford Jr. keeps bumping back his timeline on announcing his plans on whether or not to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand in the Democratic primary (ostensibly because he doesn’t want to do so while David Paterson is dominating the news). Given the unprecedented badness of his campaign rollout — which may have just gotten worth with the news that his Merrill Lynch salary is $2 million, exclusive of bonuses — he may be mulling whether or not go through with it after all.

• OH-Sen: Rob Portman is drawing fire for his plans to address Cincinnati-area anti-tax group COAST and raise money for them, which has a history of inflammatory statements. COAST’s website refers to Ohio’s General Assembly as “Nazis.” They also referred to Ted Kennedy as a “shovel-ready project.”

• PA-Sen: I’m not sure voters care much about this kind of process stuff, but Arlen Specter is landing some hard blows on Joe Sestak for paying his staffers so poorly (effectively below the minimum wage), especially while Sestak’s three siblings (who are effectively the topmost tier of his campaign) make much more. Still, the rate at which the Sestak campaign is shedding staffers suggests something’s amiss at camp Sestak.

• WI-Sen: Politico is reporting that Tommy Thompson seems to be taking some serious steps toward a Senate run against Russ Feingold, at least to the extent of securing financial pledges and attempting to round up former staffers. Some insiders remain skeptical that the 67-year-old Thompson, who put forth a rather doddering image amidst the crash and burn of his 2008 presidential run, will actually pull the trigger.

• IA-Gov: I wonder if this was who Ed Fallon had in mind when he said someone should primary Chet Culver in the gubernatorial race. Jonathan Narcisse announced that he’ll take on Culver in the Democratic primary, focusing on educational issues. Narcisse, as a former Des Moines school board member and publisher of several independent newspapers, seems at least one step up from Some Dude status (although there’s still a strong whiff of gadflyishness here).

• IL-Gov: This Friday, March 5th, is the deadline for the Illinois State Board of Elections to certify the results of February’s Republican gubernatorial primary. According to unofficial tallies (not disputed by either campaign), Bob Brady has a 247-vote lead on Kirk Dillard. Dillard’s camp doesn’t sound very optimistic – they seem to be holding out hope that a previously-unknown error will crop up in their favor. A spokesman says that Dillard might consider seeking a recount if the margin is less than 100 votes, but even that, they say, is not a “magical number.” (D)

• KS-Gov: Rasmussen has been nothing if not thorough in the last few months, and now they’re the first pollster to look at a race that everyone has regarded as a foregone conclusion: the Kansas governor’s race. They find Republican Sen. Sam Brownback leading Democratic state Sen. Tom Holland 55-33. Given the source, that’s actually better than I would have expected.

• MN-Gov: While state House minority leader Marty Seifert has taken on something of presumptive GOP frontrunner status, his closest competition, state Rep. Tom Emmer, is far from dead. Emmer just got the backing of two local Republican heavyweights, former Rep. Vin Weber, and RNC committee member and former gubernatorial candidate Brian Sullivan.

• NY-Gov: Even though he’s already pulled the plug on his re-election bid, there’s still a lot of pressure on David Paterson to resign in the wake of the scandal involving a domestic violence allegation against a top aide. He’s refusing, though; when asked whether resignation was off the table, he responded “I don’t even know why it’s on the table.”

• TN-Gov: One more Democrat pulled the plug on a gubernatorial bid today: state Senate minority leader Jim Kyle. Kyle cited poor fundraising (as he can’t raise during the legislative session), as well as long odds in both the primary and general. With state Sen. Roy Herron already out (to pursue TN-08), this leaves only two contestants for the Democratic nod: former state House majority leader Kim McMillan, and businessman and gubernatorial progeny Mike McWherter.

• AL-05: Rep. Parker Griffith is up with his first TV ad already, trying to portray the former Howard Dean supporter as opposed to the “radical Obama-Pelosi liberal agenda.”

• GA-07: With the retirement of Rep. John Linder, all sorts of conservative state legislators are being considered as potential candidates in suburban Atlanta, most prominently state Sens. Don Balfour (who just confirmed his entry) and David Shafer. This is also outgoing SoS Karen Handel’s turf, but she’s apparently not interested in abandoning her stalled gubernatorial campaign for the House. Former Atlanta Braves pitcher Jon Smoltz has already ruled out a bid, but one other blast from the past whose name is floating up is former Christian Coalition head Ralph Reed.

• HI-01: It’s official: Rep. Neil Abercrombie’s last day on the job was yesterday. Today he’s filing his papers to run for Governor instead.

• MA-10: Maybe this is an indication that Rep. William Delahunt is sticking around for another term, as his rumored successor (in the event of a Delahunt retirement) Joe Kennedy III said today that he won’t be running for Congress next year. Kennedy says he plans to focus on his day job as assistant district attorney in Barnstable County, but is interested in a future run.

• NY-01: In case the race in the 1st wasn’t complicated enough, with three different credible Republicans jostling in the primary and an Assemblyman considering joining them, now there’s news that a Suffolk County Legislator (i.e. county councilor) is considering the race, as an Independent. Jay Schneiderman is a former Republican who’s now in the county legislature on the Independence Party line. Initially this seems positive, as a third party might split the anti-Tim Bishop vote, but Bishop has been elected in the past on the Independence as well as the Democratic Party line, so it could actually complicate things for Bishop if Schneiderman secures the IP line.

• PA-06: Those cryptic comments by Lower Merion Twp. Commissioner Brian Gordon about dropping out seem to have panned out: he pulled the plug on his short-lived bid for the Democratic nod without endorsing. Gordon seemed to have gotten in too late to pose much of a threat to Doug Pike and Manan Trivedi.

• Filings: Campaign Diaries looks at the results from the close of the filings period in North Carolina. There’s really not much of note here: the Republicans didn’t seem to score any top-tier candidates in any Dem-held districts (although Tim d’Annunzio, in NC-08, at least seems to be willing to spend his own money). Also, it looks like Rep. Walter Jones, an iconoclastic Republican in a deep-red district, has avoided a major primary challenge (although he is still facing a GOP primary challenge from the Democrat he easily defeated in 2006 and 2008, Craig Weber).

• Polltopia: I’m not really sure who to cheer for in a fight between Stu Rothenberg and Scott Rasmussen, but it’s still on. Rothenberg started it with his dissection of Rasmussen’s WI-Sen poll, wondering how the hell a majority of voters could have an opinion about unknown candidate Dave Westlake; Rasmussen fires back, saying look at the “strong” opinions instead of the “somewhat” favorables or unfavorables.

• WATN?: Here’s one more Republican ex-Rep. heading to the pokey. John Sweeney pled guilty to driving while intoxicated, and faces 30 days in Saratoga County jail.

• Redistricting: Dave’s App (thanks to Dave & Jeff) now has partisan data for Texas and California. There are also a few new features, which you can read more about in Dave’s diary. (D)

• Meta: Can you believe it’s the first anniversary of the Daily Digest? (Pardon me while I laugh sadly at my initial plan to have it be “four or five” bullet points.)