Tag: Congress

Everyone who gerrymanders knows about the infamous GOP cracking of Austin during the GOP gerrymander of Texas.  If the Democrats magically got control of the state House, state Senate and Governorship they would be out for blood over the GOP mid-decade gerrymander

Time for the GOP’s turn to cry over a gerrymander of Austin!

CD-10

Obama 59%

McCain 40%

White 55% Black 6% Hispanic 35%

Since Doggett’s District has grown by over 120,000 people in the past 10 years it has been easy to make it more compact by removing several of the conservative counties, some of Austin was also removed to make room for the other districts.  Austin comprises the majority of the population, but San Marcos and Seguin are also in the district.  The PVI remains the same as Doggett’s old district.  If he can win with an 8 point margin in one of the worst years for Democrats in decades this new district should be no problem.  

Safe Democrat

CD-33

Obama 60%

McCain 39%

White 65% Black 8% Hispanic 20%

Clearly most of Austin is in this new district.  It is 2 points more Democratic than Doggett’s district and includes Round Rock and Georgetown in addition to the majority of Austin.  Again the massive population growth in Austin made this district possible.  Not much else to say on this one.

Safe Democrat

CD-31

Obama 56%

McCain 43%

White 52% Black 21% Hispanic 21%

As if two safe Democratic districts weren’t bad enough a third district including parts of Austin, Waco, Killeen/Temple and College Station/Bryan.  This is the crown jewel of this gerrymander.  This district is beautifully drawn for one reason, to get the GOP angry. I couldn’t quite make this district Democratic enough to be a safe Democratic Seat, but it is definitely winnable, toss-up at worst and lean D at best.

Lean D/Toss-Up

Merry Christmas to everyone who celebrates it, whether on 25 December or otherwise. While waiting for the ham to be done, I drew up a map of Nevada with four shiny new districts, just what the U.S. Census Bureau ordered.

The way I drew it, we’re basically looking at a 2-2 map, with three if not all of those districts being somewhat “soft” (potentially competitive in the right cycle) due to the quirks of Nevada geography, politics, and geopolitics. Some people on other threads (the Missouri one, for example) have suggested that Gov.-elect Sandoval and the Republicans will probably be satisfied to shore up Rep.-elect Heck somewhat in exchange for letting the Democrats have their way, to an extent, with the new NV-04. I’m inclined to agree. Also, drawing a safe 1-3 map for a rapidly blueing state like Nevada is not terribly easy.

I don’t usually go out of order, but we should probably start at the top here (geographically rather than numerically) because Nevada is an oddly shaped state.

NV-02 (green, safe lean Republican)

Rep. Dean Heller, a Republican, is thought to be prepping a Senate bid against Sen. John Ensign, the scandal-tarnished Republican incumbent whose unreliability and moral flexibility has been a thorn in the side of Republican leadership in Nevada and in Washington for several years now. If he decides to forgo a bid for statewide office in favor of running for reelection, I doubt he’ll have a problem here. Washoe County may be swingy, but Heller is popular, and any Republican can run up crushing margins in the cow counties. If Heller runs for Senate in 2012, though, Republicans and Democrats alike will want to put a lot of effort into recruiting top-tier candidates here.

NV-01 (blue, safe Democratic)

Vegas, baby! This is Rep. Shelley Berkley’s district, and she’s considered the likeliest Democrat to run for Ensign’s seat in 2012. I figure she’ll vacate, and it’s just as well, because although Nevada isn’t a VRA preclearance state, the Department of Justice may lean on the incoming Sandoval administration to ensure a minority-majority seat. Latinos are actually about a quarter of Nevada’s population, they’re the fastest-growing demographic, and it’s pretty easy to draw a compact Latino-plurality district. This district is actually 28% white, 14% black, 6% Asian, and 49% Latino, going off 2008 population estimates, and I’ll bet dollars to doughnuts it’s outright Latino-majority in the new census data. Sandoval himself may do okay here, but it’s a safe Democratic district.

NV-03 (purple, likely Republican)

Rep.-elect Joe Heck edged Rep. Dina Titus, flipping the present “fair fight” incarnation of this district from blue to red, last month. One of Sandoval’s top priorities will be shoring him up. Adding a bunch of cow counties and consolidating the district’s hold on white-collar Clark County precincts is a decent way of accomplishing that. While Sharron Angle might lose this district, and Titus could conceivably take it back, it now tips pretty firmly in Heck’s favor.

NV-04 (red, likely Democratic)

One of the big reasons why the current NV-03 is a swing district is that it includes both Democratic and Republican areas along with some subdivisions that go both ways (no, not like that, most of those are pretty heavily Democratic). I gave most of those Republican areas to my NV-03, or at least I tried to, while NV-04 takes over most of the Democratic areas, centering around Spring Valley. It’s a mostly suburban district, though it includes just a bit of rural Clark County up Highway 95. Titus or another strong Democrat with a suburban base should be pretty solid here except in particularly gruesome cycles, although a socially moderate or libertarian Republican could potentially win it.

As a Christmas bonus, I’m also going to repost my revised and updated map for Missouri, which shrinks to eight districts in 2012’s redistricting, without much commentary:

This isn’t necessarily the most favorable map Democrats can possibly get, but it’s probably the most favorable map they’re likely to get in 2012. (There’s a whole discussion about this on the other diary.) It’s probably a 3-5 map, with Democratic Rep. Russ Carnahan’s MO-03 (purple) likely playing host to a deathmatch between Carnahan and Republican Rep. Jo Ann Emerson of Cape Girardeau in 2012.

A few quick notes: Democratic Rep. Lacy Clay’s MO-01 (blue) is 48% white, 47% black, remaining VRA-compliant. I was of the school of thought saying it couldn’t be done without throwing Carnahan overboard, but there you have it. Carnahan’s share of St. Louis County consists almost entirely of precincts that voted for then-Sen. Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election, so I think Mr. Local Boy has a good base there. And Republican Rep. Todd Akin’s home in rich white Town and Country remains in his district of MO-02 (green).

Not much to add here. Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver in MO-08 (slate blue), renumbered from the current MO-05, still doesn’t get a VRA district, but he’s a good politician who is popular with both white and black Democrats in Kansas City. I resisted the urge to dismember Republican Rep.-elect Vicki Hartzler’s MO-05 (yellow), renumbered from the current MO-04, because I didn’t think the Republicans in the Missouri state legislature would let such a plan get to Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon’s desk.

Hope everyone is dividing their time as they see fit between family, friends, and politics. Thoughts on either map are welcome and appreciated.

I don’t know much about Missouri politics, but I do know the state is ending up with eight districts (down one) after redistricting, and Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon gets the opportunity to veto any map that is submitted by the legislature. So, I drew up a quick-and-dirty map.

I think Nixon and the Democrats are likely to settle for a 2-5-1 map. Anything better for the Democrats isn’t going to pass muster in the legislature, and anything better for the Republicans is going to get vetoed.

MO-01 (blue, safe Democratic)

Democratic Rep. William Lacy Clay gets to keep his safe urban district, which remains narrowly minority-majority (48% white, 47% black). Not much to add here. I definitely don’t think the northward excursion into St. Charles County will be enough to give a Republican an opening, especially with the racial demographics staying pretty much as is. If Clay gets to draw his own district, it might end up more confined to St. Louis City than in this drawing, but I think Nixon will be talking to Clay and other African American legislators to ensure a 2-5-1 map. If he can keep them safe, there’s no real reason for them to throw Democratic Rep. Russ Carnahan in MO-03 to the wolves altogether.

MO-02 (green, likely Republican)

This wealthy, white suburban district, currently held by Republican Rep. Todd Akin, has been consolidated somewhat. I think he should retain it barring a stern Democratic challenge, although a Democrat with suburban appeal might be able to make him sweat considering the lack of ruby-red rural areas. And I don’t know exactly where Rep. Carnahan lives, but if he and Akin are drawn into the same district, that would be a marquee battle.

MO-03 (purple, swing)

Assuming Rep. Carnahan runs in this district, I think he might have a tougher go of things than before. It includes a lot more of rural Missouri along the Mississippi River, though it includes enough of St. Louis and its suburbs to remain competitive. Republican Rep. Jo Ann Emerson has also been drawn into this district, so it’d be a classic urban-rural matchup.

MO-04 (red, safe Republican)

Rep.-elect Billy Long should be able to keep this seat Republican despite having a lot of new territory to cover.

MO-05 (yellow, likely Republican)

Republican Rep.-elect Vicki Hartzler gets some new ground, too, including most of the current MO-07, but I don’t really see this district swinging either way, maybe unless Democratic Rep.-elect Ike Skelton ran again. But I doubt he will.

MO-06 (teal, safe Republican)

It was a bit of a pain to keep Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, the Republican congressman for the current MO-09 (which encompasses most of this district), in this district. He’d be fine here.

MO-07 (grey, safe Republican)

Republican Rep. Tom Graves overcame his stiffest challenge in 2008 with flying colors. He’s solid here, despite this district including so much of (suburban) Jackson County. No reason to think he’s not safe.

MO-08 (slate blue, safe Democratic)

This district is basically Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s current MO-05, urban Jackson and Clay counties stealing a few precincts from the urban parts of Cass and Platte counties. Cleaver should be just fine here.

Thoughts? Expertise from more Missouri-savvy SSPers?

Oregon is one of the closest states, at last projection, to adding a House seat (and an electoral vote). I believe the Democrats should be cheering for this outcome, and here is why.

I think this map should shake out to a 5D-1R split in a neutral year, although Republicans may be able to swing the new OR-06 in an especially good year.

OR-01 (salmon, safe Democratic)

Democratic Rep. David Wu’s district consolidates to the western Portland suburbs, Portland’s West Hills, Columbia County, and the Oregon side of the Columbia River Delta. Wu is safe now in a district that includes a lot more reddish territory. He’s safe here.

OR-02 (red, safe Republican)

Eastern Oregon will never, ever vote for a Democrat. As incumbent Republican Rep. Greg Walden, who lives in Hood River, has been drawn out of this district, I think the electorate here would be happy to elect a more conservative Republican. State Senate Minority Leader Ted Ferrioli of John Day would be a top recruit, but really, Some Dude could win here as long as he touted his conservatism and ran on the Republican ticket.

OR-03 (green, safe Democratic

This district is basically just most of Multnomah County. Democratic Rep. Earl Blumenauer could get reelected here until the day he dies. After that, I’m sure this district would be happy to elect any other Democrat.

OR-04 (purple, safe Democratic)

Yes, it still includes Linn County. Yes, it retains most of Douglas County. It also includes all of Lane County, including the People’s Republic of Eugene. It also includes the most liberal parts of the Oregon Coast. Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio is safe here. If and when he retires, I like Albany Mayor Sharon Konopa to succeed him, although I have no idea if she’s interested; running on a platform of environmental conservation and responsible urban growth management in a city renowned for being a conservative island in the middle of the sapphire Willamette Valley, she stomped the chairwoman of the Linn County Republican Central Committee in a nonpartisan election last month.

OR-05 (yellow, likely Democratic)

Yamhill and Polk counties are Republican, but Benton County is Democratic, and Marion County is bluer than not, especially with the influx of Latinos along the I-5 corridor from Salem to Aurora. The district also includes southern precincts of Washington and Clackamas counties. Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader has been drawn out of this district, but Brian Clem, a Salem-area state representative who briefly was a candidate for governor this cycle, is probably in line to succeed him in any district centered on Salem. Fellow Salem-area representatives Kevin Cameron and Vicki Berger are probably the likeliest Republican entries, although I think Berger is too moderate to win in a primary. Matt Wingard, a representative from Wilsonville, could pick up support from the conservative wing of the party if he ran, but any competent Democrat would clean his clock in a district like this.

OR-06 (blue, lean Democratic)

This is the new district, and it could swing. But it includes the Democratic stronghold of Hood River County, most of blueing Clackamas County, and all of blueing Deschutes County. Not sure if it would have gone Republican this year; I believe Gov.-elect Kitzhaber narrowly lost the portions of the state included in this hypothetical district, but Sen. Wyden won it pretty handily. Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader and Republican Rep. Greg Walden have both been drawn into this district. The terrain is more familiar for Walden, but Schrader has a base in populous Clackamas County and probably an overall advantage in terms of what politics are likely to play here. If Walden wants to move next door, Chris Telfer, a Bend-area state senator, would be the Republicans’ top recruit here; if Schrader would prefer to run in OR-05, his current district, the Democrats would probably like to turn to Rick Metsger, a Mount Hood-area state senator.

This whole exercise may be entirely academic. We’ll know for sure on 21 December…

This writeup will be brief and will lack detail pictures. Dave’s app ate one of my save files for the Maryland map, and the Utah map I drew up on a public computer when I was bored.

Utah will gain one seat. Rep. Matheson, the only Democrat in the Beehive State’s congressional district, has resisted every effort to defeat him. With the Wasatch Front gobbling up so much of Utah’s voting population and Salt Lake County trending blue, I think Utah Republicans will be relieved to confine Matheson to the state’s most populous county and parcel out his redder rural and suburban territory to help create a new district. Rep. Chaffetz will probably run against Sen. Hatch in 2012, but if he doesn’t, he could run in the new UT-04, as he’s been drawn out of UT-03. It really doesn’t matter, as UT-01, UT-03, and UT-04 would probably vote for Attila the Hun as long as he could prove he was a naturalized U.S. citizen.

All of these districts but MD-06 (teal) are safe Democratic seats. I posted this map in the comments section of a now-buried diary, but I figured I’d repost it in a new diary. Rep. Kratovil can run for MD-01 (blue) from his Stevensville home in coastal Queen Anne’s County. Rep. Bartlett has been drawn out of MD-06, with the blueing city of Frederick (as well as its little cousin of Hagerstown, in Washington County) drawn into Rep. Van Hollen’s MD-08 (slate blue). Rep.-elect Harris would probably do just fine in MD-06. Just to give you an idea of exactly how Democratic this state is, MD-06 voted for Sen. McCain over Sen. Obama in 2008 by within a point of the same margin by which MD-05 (yellow) and MD-08 broke for Sen. Obama. MD-04 (red) and MD-07 (grey) are black-majority VRA districts (54% black, 22% white; and 53% black, 33% white respectively). I may have drawn Rep. Sarbanes out of MD-03 (purple), but moving across Baltimore is really not a big deal for a congressman.

Starting today at 9:30AM Pacific, the eight current members of the California Redistricting Commission will choose the six additional members (two of each party group) who will complete the panel. Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to correctly guess who those six members will be.

The current eight are as follows:

Rose Report (http://rosereport.org/20101118/state-auditor-selects-first-8-members-of-ca-redistricting-commission/)

Democrats:

Cynthia Dai – Female, Asian-American, San Francisco, SF County

Elaine Kuo – Female, Asian-American, Mountain View, Santa Clara County

Jeanne Raya – Female, Latina, San Gabriel, LA County

Republicans:

Vincent Barabba – Male, Anglo, Capitola, Santa Cruz County (former director of U.S. Census Bureau)

Jodie Filkins Webber – Female, Asian-American, Norco, Riverside County

Peter Yao – Male, Asian-American, Claremont, LA County (city councilmember)

Other:

Stanley Forbes – Male, Anglo, Esparto, Yolo County

Connie Galambos Malloy – Female, African-American, Oakland, Alameda County

The lists of remaining members can be found at www.WeDrawtheLines.ca.gov

Here are my picks:

Gil Ontai, Rep, San Diego (only applicant left from San Diego)

Byrd Lochtie Other, Humboldt (only person from North of Sacramento)

Maria Blanco, Dem, Los Angeles (only applicant from LA City)

Teresa Espana, Other, Fresno (Central Valley)

James Vidal, Rep, Riverside

Gabino Aguirre, Dem, Ventura

And having gone through them, I doubt I’ll get more than two of them right. The combination of the leadership strikes and the lottery produced some disproportionalities that I couldn’t figure out how to overcome.

Under the Wyoming Rule, Tennessee would increase its share of districts to an impressive round dozen. But while the Volunteer State was once a swing state, it has become solidly Republican, at least for the time being. It remains unclear whether the wing of the party represented by the relatively moderate Sen. Corker or the wing of the party represented by Lt. Gov. Ramsey, who called Islam a “cult” during the primary campaign, will win in the battle for the soul of the Tennessee Republican Party, and whether the victor may determine where the fickle electorate lurches next.

As it rests now, though, Tennessee Republicans could force a 9-3 map under Wyoming Rule redistricting, and the only reason why they could not draw a 10-2 map is the Voting Rights Act.

TN-01 (safe Republican)

Rep. Phil Roe’s district just loses a few counties.

TN-02 (likely Republican)

Rep. Jimmy Duncan’s district is now consolidated around Knoxville.

TN-03 (safe Republican)

Rep.-elect Charles Fleischmann gets a nice safe district that looks a lot less disgusting than outgoing Rep. Zach Wamp’s current oddly shaped district.

TN-04 (safe Republican)

No longer Rep.-elect Scott DesJarlais’s district, this Republican-friendly open seat is leftovers from the first three.

TN-05 (safe Republican)

A partial successor to Rep.-elect Diane Black’s TN-07, this district contains her Gallatin residence and is thus her seat, for all intents and purposes. It has nothing to do with the safe Democratic district in Nashville, represented by Rep. Jim Cooper. On the contrary, this seat is safe Republican.

TN-06 (safe Republican)

Just as the previous district provided a natural home for Rep.-elect Black, DesJarlais’s gutted TN-04 is effectively replaced by this smaller district. Middle Tennessee is fertile ground for Republicans, and DesJarlais should be fine here.

TN-07 (likely Republican)

This district, which contains the home of outgoing Democratic Rep. Bart Gordon, is an open seat that leans Republican due to the territory. If Gordon runs, he might be able to win it, but it’s pretty conservative territory for the most part.

TN-08 (safe Democratic)

Team Blue finally gets on the board, with this successor to Cooper’s TN-05 solidly Democratic with its territory nibbled down to the center of Davidson County.

TN-09 (likely Republican)

With Democratic Rep. David Tanner history, Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn (currently of TN-07) gets a less stupid-looking district. She should be established enough to win even though it includes a bit more of Democratic-leaning Davidson County than before.

TN-10 (safe Republican)

This western district, which includes pieces of the current TN-07 and much of the current TN-08, is an open seat that any Republican should be able to win.

TN-11 (safe Democratic)

As VRA districts go, these aren’t very stringent. This partial successor to TN-09, represented by Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen, is 51% African American, 41% white. I don’t know if Cohen lives here, but it should be safe for Democrats.

TN-12 (likely Democratic)

I screwed over Rep.-elect Stephen Fincher, who looks like a liability for the GOP in Tennessee right now anyway, and plopped him into a coalition VRA district, which is 47% white, 46% African American, and 100% problematic for Republicans. Sen. John McCain of Arizona carried Tipton County in 2008, but only won Lauderdale County by a few points, while then-Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois won big in Shelby and Haywood counties. Fincher could win it with a great campaign, but he doesn’t seem to run great campaigns.

Thoughts, either on the map or on the Wyoming Rule?

Oregon is the latest guinea pig in my experiment with Wyoming Rule redistricting. Because under the rule, the number of seats in the House are apportioned by dividing the U.S. population by the population of its least populous state, Wyoming, Oregon would add two districts to its existing five.

Somehow, I managed to draw a 5-1-1 map for Democrats, although part of it is strong incumbency value in Oregon…and part of it is that Oregon is much more liberal on the federal level than it is on the state level.

Unfortunately, the app doesn’t have voter information for Oregon; fortunately, I did most of my division along county lines, and most of the rest of my division along lines I’m familiar with as a former Oregon resident.

OR-01 (safe Democratic)

Interestingly enough, when I originally drew this Wyoming Rule-sized district, the neat little combination of adjacent Washington and Columbia counties was the perfect size. Then I realized I was still using the 2000 Census data rather than the 2008 population projections, and that went to hell because the western Portland suburbs have positively exploded population-wise over the past decade. So I had to chop out the western halves of those counties, removing a lot of more conservative, rural areas to create a district that, especially with Yamhill County gone too, is even safer for Democratic Rep. David Wu. I say “even safer” because a lot of non-Oregonians are under the impression Wu isn’t completely fireproof in his current district. In 2004, Wu won going away despite being forced to admit to late-breaking claims of attempted date rape, against a highly qualified, moderate candidate with gangbusters fundraising in a cycle Republican enough that Oregonians cast the state’s electoral votes for Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts by an uncomfortably close four-point margin while passing a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage in a state that today, just a few years later, has an openly gay man as mayor of its largest city; has the highest-ranking openly bisexual politician in the country in Secy. Kate Brown, first in line to the governorship; and has both of the nation’s only two openly gay state Supreme Court justices, both of whom were elected by popular vote. In 2010, amid a 63-seat loss for House Democrats nationally, Wu won by a double-digit margin over a challenger endorsed by the highly influential and fairly liberal Portland daily newspaper The Oregonian. If Wu is safe now, he will live forever here, even without the little spur into the western Multnomah County suburbs.

OR-02 (safe Republican)

This was one of the trickiest districts to draw, which is funny, because on the current map, it’s obviously just the half of the state east of the Cascades. But recent population growth in Deschutes County has complicated the traditional breakdown of electoral politics in Oregon, with exploding Bend nearly handing the county to Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois in 2008; Sen. John McCain of Arizona only won Deschutes County by 0.3% in the worst showing by a Republican there since 1964. This year, Republican Jim Huffman appears to have won the county over Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden, the incumbent, by a whopping 22 votes in a year Republicans almost won the Oregon gubernatorial election for the first time since 1982, when moderate Gov. Victor Atiyeh blew now-Gov. Ted Kulongoski out of the water (how times change). Because districts are smaller under the Wyoming Rule anyway, I decided to cut out Central Oregon, including Deschutes County, and because Bend is by far the largest population center in the current district, that left me with a lot of ground to make up despite the fact each district is much less populous now. To make up for it, the district absorbed all of Josephine County and extended slightly upward into Douglas County. Instead of being just an Eastern Oregon district, it is now effectively Eastern and Southern Oregon, minus the Central Oregon subregion. Rep. Greg Walden, a Republican known to be close to incoming House Speaker John Boehner, would be fine here if his Hood River residence wasn’t drawn out of the district. I think he would probably move east to run here again, although if he chose not to, State Senate Minority Leader Ted Ferrioli of John Day would probably be the Republicans’ strongest potential candidate. If former Sen. Gordon Smith of Pendleton, defeated by now-Sen. Jeff Merkley in 2008, decided to run, he would be a very strong candidate, but he might be too moderate for this intensely red district’s Republican primary voters.

OR-03 (safe Democratic)

Instead of containing most of part of Clackamas County, this district is now Multnomah County-only, containing nearly all of Portland proper. Just to give you an idea of how safe Democratic Rep. Earl Blumenauer is here, he destroyed challenger Delia Lopez in the portion of Multnomah County now in his district by a better-than-3:1 margin. In the small part of Multnomah County now in OR-01 that has been reallocated to this compact district, Wu did equally well. This would be one of the safest Democratic districts in the country.

OR-04 (likely Democratic)

I took great pains here to keep Rep. Peter DeFazio, Democrat of Springfield, in this drawing of the district. Somehow, despite being one of the most left-wing members of the House, DeFazio is able to win reelection in a swingish district even when he barely campaigns. With the district stripped out and reapportioned as an Oregon Coast district extending a finger out to take in the twin cities of Eugene and Springfield, which drive the strong Democratic bias of Lane County, I doubt DeFazio would have much trouble. The Oregon Coast is traditionally union territory, and although unions don’t have as much sway in Oregon as they do in some other states, most of the coastal counties are good for Democrats at the federal level.

OR-05 (likely Democratic)

There are two important things to note about this district. First, Marion and Clackamas counties may be swingy on the state level, but on the federal level, they generally prefer Democrats. Second, Yamhill and Polk counties are much less friendly to Democrats at every level, and indeed, they are among the most conservative counties in the Willamette River Valley (although Linn County is by far the most conservative). Despite that, and despite the fact that on paper, this district looks like a tossup, I think it’s likely Democratic. Without the numbers, it’s hard to justify my reasoning here, but basically it goes like this: Chris Dudley may have won practically this entire district in the gubernatorial race, but Obama carried it in 2008 and Rep. Kurt Schrader, the incumbent Democrat, defied the polls in a serious way to win this district so frequently mentioned as a potential Republican pickup, so consistently held by a Democrat. Schrader, who wife is a state senator from Canby (still locked in an as-yet-undecided race for reelection, by the way), has actually been drawn out of this district, but I think a Salem-area Democrat like Brian Clem, a fairly young state representative who has stated his ambitions for higher office, would be a strong candidate here. Fellow Salem-area state Rep. Vicki Berger would probably be the Republicans’ strongest candidate, but she would slot in to the left of several Blue Dogs as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, so she would probably fail to win the nomination. West Linn-based state Rep. Scott Bruun, who won the Republican nomination this year, has been drawn out of the district along with Schrader.

OR-06 (likely Democratic)

Schrader and Bruun both wound up in this new Portland-area district, which covers the swingy Clackamas County suburbs of Oregon’s largest city, as well as eastern Multnomah County. Fiscally conservative, wealthy Lake Oswego and Wilsonville are more than balanced out in this district by strongly Democratic, working-class Gresham and Milwaukee. Lake Oswego is rapidly turning blue anyway, preferring former (and now future) Gov. John Kitzhaber over Chris Dudley and Schrader over Bruun this year, what with the Oregon Republican Party forgetting what made Vic Atiyeh and Gordon Smith so popular (hint: a combination of bipartisan credentials and socially moderate, environmentally conscious positions). It is entirely possible a rematch between Schrader and Bruun could take place, or that failed gubernatorial candidate Chris Dudley could mount a bid for the House from his Lake Oswego mansion. I think this district should be pretty good for Democrats, though.

OR-07 (swing)

This district includes the tiny Republican counties of Wheeler and Sherman, as well as the larger Republican counties of Crook and Linn, as well as the Democratic counties of Hood River and Benton and the swingy, blueing counties of Deschutes and Wasco. It also borrows large chunks of Democratic Lane County (excluding especially liberal Eugene and Springfield, though) and Republican Douglas County. To be blunt, I have no idea what will happen in this district, although I suspect that if current demographic trends and growth rates hold, it will be solid territory for the Democrats by the time of the next redistricting in 2022. As it is, I think it may tilt Republican. Walden has been drawn into this district, and while he could win here, I think he might prefer to run in his current OR-02. Freshman State Sen. Chris Telfer of Bend, who represents much of Deschutes County and waged an unsuccessful bid for state treasurer this year, may be a stronger candidate to run on the Republican side. State Sen. Rick Metsger of Welches, who did not seek reelection this year, is a potential Democratic candidate (he lost the Democratic primary for secretary of state to Brown in 2008).

Thoughts on the map or the Wyoming Rule?

I applied the Wyoming Rule, stating that each congressional district in the country should have roughly the same population as the smallest state’s at-large district, to North Carolina. Redistricting is gruesome in North Carolina, and with 17 districts, it’s even nastier. I came up with four safe Democratic districts (all of them VRA districts, either with black majorities or minority-majority coalitions), eight probable Republican districts, and five swing districts, ensuring electoral politics in the Tarheel State with this map would be pretty exciting.

Marvel at the atrocity I have committed. For anyone who is curious, going off 2008 population estimates, each district contains roughly between 472,500 and 474,500 people.

NC-01 (safe Democratic)

41% white, 54% black

66% Obama, 34% McCain

This is one district I did manage to make more compact. It remains black-majority and acts as a Democratic vote sink in swingy eastern North Carolina. Rep. G.K. Butterfield, the Democrat who currently holds this seat, would have no new obstacles here.

NC-02 (swing)

78% white, 12% black

51% Obama, 48% McCain

This is where things start getting ugly. After surveying the map I drew for the Raleigh-Durham area, I felt like I needed to take a shower. Rep.-elect Renee Ellmers, a Tea Party Republican loathed by the GOP establishment for some reason, has been drawn out, as she currently resides in Dunn in Harnett County, which isn’t even a part of this district. Meanwhile, I believe Democratic Rep. Brad Miller of NC-13, who resides in Raleigh, has been drawn into the district. Realistically, Ellmers has little chance of holding the current NC-02 in 2012, and Republicans would be better off running a more competent candidate in this district anyway.

NC-03 (safe Republican)

78% white, 18% black

41% Obama, 58% McCain

This district hasn’t changed much, absorbing some of the more conservative parts of NC-01 and ceding a bit of ground where the African American population has risen at a disproportionate rate. The only major change is that it has been extended along the Atlantic coast, absorbing some of the southern suburbs of Wilmington. Republican Rep. Walter B. Jones of Farmville, a town in western Pitt County, would easily win another term here.

NC-04 (safe Democratic)

42% white, 44% black, 9% Latino

73% Obama, 26% McCain

If you thought NC-02 was ugly, this is even worse. It effectively combines the African American precincts of Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Garner, Sanford, and Fayetteville, linking them via spindly threads of rural countryside and wilderness. Rep. David Price, the incumbent Democrat here, has been drawn out of this district. Price lives in Chapel Hill, home to the University of North Carolina. Chapel Hill, for what it’s worth, is just too white to include in this district without the risk of upsetting its VRA status depending on demographic rates. Democrats should romp in this district regardless.

NC-05 (likely Republican)

69% white, 25% black

45% Obama, 55% McCain

Northern North Carolina is mostly white and mostly Republican, but the inclusion of Vance County and parts of Nash County, as well as a cut of ultra-liberal Chapel Hill, in this district make it a bit less absurdly partisan than the current iteration. Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx, who lives in Avery County, would have to move in order to run for reelection here, but I’m inclined to think somebody a bit younger and less emblematic of conservative obstinacy would make a better candidate for the GOP here anyway. A Democrat could certainly win this seat in a good year, and indeed, it is possible Price has been drawn into this district (I’m not exactly sure where he claims his address). But the quandary of having part of a liberal college town in an otherwise Republican district is that students might not get out the vote for a Blue Dog, and socially conservative ancestral Democrats might not vote for a progressive.

NC-06 (safe Republican)

81% white, 11% black

43% Obama, 56% McCain

This district effectively drowns what is left of liberal Chapel Hill in the bathtub of rural conservatism. In my first drawing, this district had not changed a lot from the current version represented by Rep. Howard Coble, a long-serving Republican, but the new version crawls evilly into Orange County to keep Chapel Hill out of a swingier district. If Coble wants another term, he should have no problem getting one in this district, even if he has to run against Price, who is probably drawn in here. As with NC-05, though, Democrats will have a wicked balancing act to perform, as well as a lot of electoral ground to make up, if they want to flip this seat.

NC-07 (safe Republican)

71% white, 21% black

42% Obama, 57% McCain

This redrawing would represent a fait accompli for the Republicans, drawing out Rep. Mike McIntyre, the Lumberton-based Democratic incumbent. It’s another district with a face only a mother could love, but the loss of Wilmington’s majority-black northern precincts and the excision of outlying Democratic-friendly areas like Robeson County take it from being a swing district to being a fairly solid Republican district, especially with McIntyre out of the picture. It trades a few rural precincts with NC-03 with no real effect otherwise, simply a matter of working out the numbers.

NC-08 (safe Democratic)

47% white, 33% black, 12% Native

58% Obama, 41% McCain

If you were curious as to where McIntyre went, he was drawn into this district currently held by Rep. Larry Kissell, a fellow Democrat. This new drawing sucks in pieces of Wilmington, Fayetteville, and Aberdeen in exchange for Cabarrus and Stanly counties. It is narrowly a minority-majority coalition district, with a not-insignificant Native American population, and it should be solid for Democrats regardless of whether Kissell, McIntyre, or someone else is the party’s 2012 nominee.

NC-09 (likely Republican)

81% white, 11% black

44% Obama, 55% McCain

Despite sacrificing its southern and western portions in favor of extending further north into Cabarrus County, this district serves the same function as it did before: dividing Charlotte along racial lines. Republican Rep. Sue Myrick, who I believe would still reside in this redrawn district, isn’t going to have any trouble getting reelected here. In the event Myrick has been drawn out, any other Republican might have a bit tougher haul but would probably still be favored.

NC-10 (safe Republican)

85% white, 8% black

41% Obama, 57% McCain

Okay kid, here’s where things get racially homogeneous. This redrawn district would be overwhelmingly Republican if it didn’t stick a long spur into liberal Asheville, intentionally diluting that population center’s influence. Instead it’s just very Republican, and it’s hard to see a Democrat picking it up. Rep. Patrick McHenry of Cherryville, a Republican, has been drawn out of this district with its move north from Gaston County.

NC-11 (safe Republican)

87% white, 7% black

40% Obama, 59% McCain

This is that pesky district where Shuler, a Blue Dog, seems to be hanging on just fine despite determined attempts to dislodge him. This redrawing is effectively just the most conservative parts of western North Carolina, with its sole purpose being to get rid of Shuler. Republicans would benefit from a shrunk-down district excising Democratic-friendly Asheville, and indeed, Shuler winning a district now-President Barack Obama lost by 19 points in 2008 seems like a stretch even for him.

NC-12 (safe Democratic)

38% white, 49% black, 8% Latino

75% Obama, 24% McCain

This is another slimmed-down version of an existing monstrosity. Democratic Rep. Melvin Watt’s district is famous for being one of the most egregious examples of gerrymandering in the county. Fortunately, this Wyoming Rule map puts it to shame, with multiple examples of even grosser gerrymandered districts. The smaller version of this district omits the spur into Winston-Salem and includes only southern and eastern Greensboro. Despite my personal distaste for Watt, he would have no excuse not to win reelection here.

NC-13 (swing)

79% white, 15% black

47% Obama, 52% McCain

This district simply ended up in a completely different place than it currently occupies. The current NC-13 includes most of Wake County and a great deal of northern North Carolina, using Raleigh’s Democratic tilt to offset the conservative tendencies of Rockingham, Caswell, Person, and Granville counties in what amounts to a big fat Democratic gerrymander. Because there is literally no overlap between the current and redrawn versions of this district, Miller has been drawn out and placed in NC-02, as previously mentioned. The new NC-13 would cover a swath of the central part of the state, including the cities of Kannapolis and Concord in Cabarrus County, stretching down to the South Carolina border west of Charlotte (there is actually an outside chance that Myrick, the NC-09 incumbent, may find herself living here). Because of the inclusion of Cherryville, Gaston County, the long-serving Republican McHenry has certainly been drawn into this district. It’s a swing district, and a savvy Blue Dog Democrat could win it, but I think it tilts Republican, especially if McHenry or Myrick run.

NC-14 (likely Republican)

90% white, 6% black

43% Obama, 55% McCain

This new district in North Carolina under the Wyoming Rule is mostly left over from Shuler’s gutted NC-11 and McHenry’s dismembered NC-10, with Foxx drawn in along with parts of the current incarnation of NC-05. It’s not as strongly Republican as it might have been, but most of liberal Asheville is here putting a weight on the scale due to its size. Considering that Shuler might rather move here from NC-11 to run, I would love to see him battle it out with Foxx. The demographics here ultimately would work in Foxx’s favor whether she ran against Shuler or another Democrat.

NC-15 (swing)

72% white, 18% black

48% Obama, 51% McCain

Yes, you’re seeing it right: this district includes the east and west sides, but not the middle third, of Harnett County. For all its gerrymandered-to-hell appearance, this is a swing district, carved up in a hideous way partly to permit the existence of the two VRA districts it borders, partly to keep it competitive enough to make surrounding districts more solidly partisan. Ellmers has been drawn into this district, although I’m not sure it’s conservative enough for her to win. Getting around in this district looks like it would be hell, and the cultural incongruity between Durham and Dunn might pose an issue in an election year.

NC-16 (swing)

74% white, 18% black

47% Obama, 52% McCain

Amazing how a district of leftovers can end up being perhaps the most compact one on the entire map. This all-new district covers most of Winston-Salem, along with rural Yadkin County and large swaths of Stokes, Surry, and Wilkes counties. I don’t believe any member of the House of Representatives lives within these district boundaries, but either a conservative Democrat or a cautious Republican could win here. It’s a swing district, but it tilts Republican.

NC-17 (swing)

78% white, 16% black

47% Obama, 52% McCain

The last new district is materially similar to the previous one in some ways. Demographically, it comes out looking much the same. It includes most of Guilford and Rockingham counties, serving to sponge up Democratic-friendly areas that could change NC-05 or NC-06 from being Republican districts to being swing districts, as this Republican-tilting district is. I don’t think a current House member lives here, meaning we would probably see a new face in Congress representing it in 2013. I think that face is likely to be Republican.

Comments, either on the map or on the Wyoming Rule?

In this diary I will attempt to explain the troubles that Democrats have had in the Northern Section of Tx-27.  

Background of the District

Congressional District 27 is quite an odd district in the state of Texas.  The district is divided into two population centers at the northern most and southern most tips of the district with the King Ranch and Kenedy Ranch in between.   Some of you may have noticed that this was the only district not widely affected by the Delaymander a few years ago.  It would have been simple to draw CD 27 into a Republican district by adding Aransas County in the North and subtracting some of Brownsville out.  Why was the not done?  Tom DeLay was raised in Corpus Christi and one of his family friends growing up was Solomon Ortiz.  Ortiz was there for DeLay on a host of issues in the house anyway so why target him?  Also DeLay’s brother (a lobbyist) nearly worked out of the Ortiz’s office for the Port of Brownsville and other interests in the district.  Politically, the district has trended strongly Republican in the Northern two counties and trended Democrat in the Southern three.  This doesn’t balance out because the Corpus Christi area is where the largest population is in the district by far.

Problems in the Local Democratic Party

Dems in the Northern Part of the district have faced a situation where there has been a lack of direction from the state and local party for 6 years.  Nueces had 2 Democrats (Abel Herrero and Solly Ortiz) in the State Legislature and 1 Republican (Gene Seaman).  4 years ago, Attorney Mikel Watts decided to change the pace in Nueces and recruited Juan Garcia to run against State Rep Gene Seaman.  He won that race by raising hundreds of thousands of dollars from local attorneys including Watts.  In the past, the Ortiz machine had to approve of the candidates that ran for any position (even as far down the ballot as Justice of the Peace)!  Garcia didn’t get recruited by Ortiz.  In fact, he fought against the machine.  This led to a considerable feud in the party where the local Anglos and Progressives sided with Garcia and the rest of the party sided with Ortiz.  What ended up happening was that the Ortiz Machine withdrew all support from Garcia in Nueces and San Patricio Counties.  In 2008, without support from Ortiz anymore, Garcia lost and moved to DC to work for his college friend Barack Obama.  Garcia’s departure from office coincided with a decline in the local party.  Faction warfare ensued.  No fundraising took place in that time so the local party left all campaigning up to the local candidates.  This situation would be remedied by quality candidates.  They were nowhere to be found.  Our congressman hardly ever came to the Coastal Bend (Northern Part of the district) much less campaigned or raised money for anyone but himself or his son Solly Ortiz.  We lost the Sheriff position and the County Judge position as a result.  Finally, we lost control of the Commissioners Court for the first time in 2008.  The Ortiz machine finally realized they were in trouble.  The recruited a Candidate to run for Commissioners Court and for JP but both were defeated in the primary by extremely conservative Democrats.  The local party chair from 2008-2010 didn’t do anything but provide support to her favorite few Democrats and some Republicans (she is now a member of the Texas Republican woman).

Perceived Rebound in the Local Party



In 2010, the Progressives in Nueces County recruited the party chair of another county to run for party chair.  She won that race by a very thin margin.  When she was sworn in in May of 2010, there was $0 in the party bank account.  Even worse was the fact that the Texas Democratic Party State Convention was going to be in Nueces County in July.  Immediately planning for that took place and no rebuilding was accomplished.  Eventually in August, the party was able to raise around $50000 to run a campaign for the first time in years.  With support from activists, the Texas Voter Targeting Software, the Bill White Campaign, and new volunteers every voter in the traditional base precincts was contacted by phone between 2 and 6 times and every door in those precincts was knocked on between 2 and 3 times in the span of one month.  Remember, this was the party doing this and not the candidates.  They also block walked and phone banked, but there is no way to know how much they did.  It looked like things were on the upswing.  



Success in the local Republican Party

In 2006, the Republican Party recruited former Anglo democrats to run for county judge and Sherriff.  They won both by large margins.  In 2008 they recruited former Democratic State Rep Todd Hunter to run against Juan Garica with the promise that if he won he would have the first shot at the newly drawn congressional district.  He was appointed to the Redistricting committee in the State House of Reps.  In 2010, their candidates across the board were almost all former Democrats.  In fact, one of their candidates for judge was a member of Texas Democratic Women and had the audacity to send in her membership dues after announcing her intent to run as a Republican with a note attached saying “Nothing Has Changed.”  As far as fundraising goes, their nominees were flush with cash to say the least.  Farenthold self-funded.  The nominee against State Abel Herrero (a family values conservative who has been married 5 times and was in a scandal for wrecking her Lamborghini on the highway) raised over $750,000 (with 95% of that coming from outside the district).  The nominee against Solly Ortiz raised $200,000 with most of that coming from and insurance PAC.  All told around $1.75 million (with over 90% of that total coming from outside the county) was spent by the Republicans in the district which is an absurd amount for the size of the media market.  With a Congressional nominee who is the Grandson of Progressive Hero Sissy Farenthold, a few Hispanics on the ticket, a lot of former Democrats running on their side, and unlimited financing it was inevitable that they would do well.

What Happened on Election Night

Democrats lost every single race except for District Attorney where we had an Anglo nominee against a Hispanic Republican (where racism and a lot of other factors played into our victory.  Our DA nominee racked 55% of the vote while every other Democrat won around 41%.  Both State Reps lost and every Republican was reelected.  Solomon Ortiz won every county in the district by large margins except Nueces and San Pat where he lost by a 11% margin which was enough to win.

Democrats didn’t turn out our base precincts of Nueces County and Republicans did.  In the strongest Republican Precinct, over 70% turned out and voted around 62% Republican while in the strongest Democratic Precinct only 20% turned out and voted around 96% Democrat.  That speaks in and of itself as to why the local party faces problems down the road.

Looking Forward

Blake will for sure run for Reelection. He will most likely be primaried by State Rep Todd Hunter who will have all of the establishment behind him.  The district will be different in two years and I believe will likely become more Republican.  Democrats don’t have many options here as far as candidates go… but here is a snapshot of some of them that may run.

Fmr State Rep Abel Herrero– Has confirmed he will run for either his old seat, the state senate, or congress next cycle. Abel was rated as the second most progressive member of the Texas House of Reps.

Fmr State Rep Solly Ortiz, Jr– Solly would be running on name recognition.  He is a conservative Democrat who won the NRA and Chamber of Commerce Endorsements Last Cycle and still lost in an extremely blue district.

Asst Secretary of Navy Juan Garcia– Garcia is an appealing candidate who has proven he can win in a very tough district.  He would have the President fully behind him and that means fundraising and perhaps appearances?  

Nueces DA Mark Skurka– The only Democrat who won on election night has massive crossover appeal to Republicans (he won 45% of them who didn’t vote straight ticket).  If Skurka runs and wins the primary (a difficult task because he is not hispanic), he would likely win.  Skurka is up for reelection as DA and most likely won’t run unfortunately.  

State Rep Rene Oliveira– Democrat from Brownsville.  Mainstreme Democrat in the State House with nothing really distinguishing him from amongst the masses.  Likely couldn’t win in a primary as he isn’t from Nueces County



State Rep Todd Hunter– Hunter is power hungry and has switched parties one time to reclaim it, why not twice?  Hunter was rated as the most liberal Republican in the Texas House so he is a teabag target anyway.

Eddie Lucios– I group them together bc only one would conceivably run.  Both have their ages working against them.  Junior is too old, IIIrd is too young.  Also, they don’t live in the district as it is currently drawn.