Tag: 2010

(From the diaries with minor edits – promoted by DavidNYC)

As I’d promised in my diary on New Jersey, Pennsylvania would be the next state I’d tackle. This would  have been done a lot sooner, but those things called work and exams kind of got in the way….

My goal, flat out, was to carve more Democratic districts. I’m all for compactness when it comes to suitcases and mp3’s, but not when I’m gerrymandering states. Again, I kept Democratic Congresscritters in their homes.

Unlike New Jersey though, Pennsylvania is probably maxed-out when it comes to Democrats (save Gerlach and Dent, whose districts are certainly Democratic.) Pennsylvania is also losing one seat (most likely) in 2010, so I drew 18 seats on 2008 population estimates. I didn’t “merge” two districts per se, but more like took the 16th, 17th, and 19th and produced two districts from them.

I had the following goals in mind:

• Dislodge Gerlach (6th) and Dent (15th) by increasing Democratic performance in their districts.

• Give Dahlkemper (3rd), Altmire (4th), Murtha (12th), and Holden (17th) more favorable territory. They represent McCain districts now, I wanted to change those to Obama districts.

• Maintain strength for Sestak (7th), Patrick Murphy (8th), Kanjorski (11th), and Schwartz (13th). They have decently strongly Democratic districts, which I wanted to maintain at their current levels.

• Keep Brady (1st), Fattah (2nd), and Doyle (14th) in strongly Democratic districts, but perhaps not as absurdly strong as before. Obama scored 88%, 90%, and 70% respectively, I felt this could afford to be lowered somewhat. A corollary to this goal is keeping Fattah’s district majority Black. I didn’t bother with Brady’s currently plurality Black district, though it may still be.

Here’s the new map (click for full-size version):

Much more below the flip.

Again, to start, I used this map of Obama’s performance across the state, by municipality. As before, lightest shade is a margin of less than 5%, then 5 to 15, 15 to 25, 25 to 35, and the new uber-dark, which is a margin of 35+.

Going district by district, here’s what we’ve got. As a sidenote, I didn’t bother renumbering districts to make sense (which they don’t right now). I think it’s easier to keep core areas the same when numbering, since I think most of us automatically relate, for example, “PA-14” to Pittsburgh.

Summary statistics are: County, Population, Obama Votes, McCain Votes, Total Votes, Obama%, McCain%.

I’m going to go Northwest to Southeast, as opposed to in order by non-sensical district number. I think that makes the most sense.

Sad to say, this district probably isn’t much more gerrymandered than its current counterpart. It contains the entirety of Erie and Crawford counties in the northwest, and starts a slow march towards State College. I’d hate to leave those Democratic votes behind, and plus they’re a good way to shore up Dahlkemper’s district, which Obama lost by 17 votes. It takes in the Democratic parts of Centre and Clinton counties on the east end, with some arms into Clarion and Venango. I’d like to think I succeeded, since Obama scored 45% in the 3rd’s part of Venango and 50% in Clarion, compared to 35% and 33% in the parts not in the 3rd. All in all, a 54% Obama district – a 6% increase from its current form.

4		689,397	182,724	168,763	356,152	51.31%	47.39%
	Allegheny	389,960	110,152	102,177	214,148	51.44%	47.71%
	Beaver	149,042	36,109	35,781	73,326	49.24%	48.80%
	Lawrence	75,681	17,041	16,670	34,362	49.59%	48.51%
	Mercer	74,714	19,422	14,135	34,316	56.60%	41.19%

Altmire is pretty much in the same boat as Dahlkemper, except with a district that Obama lost 44-55. There’s no need to complicate this by including any parts of Butler County, so this district sticks along the Ohio, Beaver, and Shenango Rivers up from Pittsburgh (but not including) to Sharon, through Allegheny, Beaver, Lawrence, and Mercer counties. It’s a point of pride for me that Obama won each county component. Specifically in Allegheny County, Altmire swaps out a bunch of Republican northern suburbs for friendlier stuff east of the city, notably Monroeville and Penn Hills. Obama scored 44% in the Allegheny portion of the old 4th, compard to 51% here. If Altmire didn’t live in Republican-leaning McCandless, there could have perhaps been more improvement. Anyways, this works out to a 51% Obama district – an improvement of 7%.

18		689,231	136,738	218,177	359,372	38.05%	60.71%
	Allegheny	127,747	30,252	41,789	72,634	41.65%	57.53%
	Beaver	24,444	4,390	7,114	11,706	37.50%	60.77%
	Butler	181,082	32,260	57,074	90,761	35.54%	62.88%
	Greene	13,925	2,072	2,748	4,892	42.35%	56.17%
	Lawrence	16,216	2,670	5,181	7,987	33.43%	64.87%
	Mercer	25,909	4,147	8,239	12,668	32.74%	65.04%
	Washington	82,349	18,019	27,503	46,141	39.05%	59.61%
	Westmoreland	217,559	42,928	68,529	112,583	38.13%	60.87%

This district is what happens when you try to strip all the Republican territory out of the 3rd, 4th, and 12th districts and pack it together. Butler County has no place in a Democratic district, nor does the large chunk of Westmoreland County which is quickly trending away from us. Throw in some the northern Pittsburgh suburbs stripped out of Altmire’s district and the core of Tim Murphy’s old district, and you get this 38% – an 8% drop in Democratic performance.

14		688,540	227,685	124,055	355,158	64.11%	34.93%
	Allegheny	688,540	227,685	124,055	355,158	64.11%	34.93%

The 14th doesn’t change much – it keeps the entirety of the city of Pittsburgh and suburbs to the east like Swissvale and Doyle’s home in Forest Hills. Instead of reaching southwest, the new 14th looks south to the southern Pittsburgh suburbs like Upper St. Clair and Bethel Park. Arguably, this district is actually more compact than the current 14th. No worries for Mike F. Doyle though, since Obama still won 55% in the non-Pittsburgh part of the district.  Combine that with the 75% Obama scored in the city, and you get a 64% Democratic district, a drop of 6%.

12		689,579	146,095	143,358	294,030	49.69%	48.76%
	Allegheny	19,931	4,385	3,865	8,347	52.53%	46.30%
	Armstrong	26,485	5,114	6,186	11,454	44.65%	54.01%
	Cambria	131,716	29,955	28,623	59,705	50.17%	47.94%
	Fayette	135,292	24,805	23,726	49,108	50.51%	48.31%
	Greene	25,794	5,757	5,141	11,084	51.94%	46.38%
	Indiana	55,368	12,477	12,254	25,068	49.77%	48.88%
	Somerset	26,108	5,709	6,599	12,656	45.11%	52.14%
	Washington	122,958	28,100	23,199	52,318	53.71%	44.34%
	Westmoreland	145,927	29,793	33,765	64,290	46.34%	52.52%

It’s no secret Obama didn’t do all that hot in Southwest PA, and it’s painfully obvious here. Kerry won the old 12th, which Obama lost by about 1,000 votes. Trying to create an Obama district required some creative districting and ends up being more like connect-the-dots between traditionally Democratic Fayette and Greene counties, Johnstown (Murtha’s residence), Washington, the college town of Indiana, and Lower Burrell in Westmoreland. The old 12th pretty much packed all the Democratic votes in the area, so the increased population requirement really made me stretch. I think again, I have a strong case for this being more compact than the old 12th. Either way, it’s a slight improvement to a district Obama won by 3,000 votes, an improvement of 0.5%.

9		689,087	102,284	191,267	298,149	34.31%	64.15%
	Adams	5,926	1,018	1,671	2,739	37.17%	61.01%
	Armstrong	42,940	6,024	12,356	18,627	32.34%	66.33%
	Bedford	49,650	6,059	16,124	22,508	26.92%	71.64%
	Blair	125,593	19,813	32,708	53,298	37.17%	61.37%
	Cambria	14,271	2,496	3,372	5,965	41.84%	56.53%
	Clarion	28,186	4,045	8,111	12,435	32.53%	65.23%
	Clearfield	33,268	5,672	8,599	14,588	38.88%	58.95%
	Cumberland	19,402	3,428	4,426	7,976	42.98%	55.49%
	Fayette	9,667	1,090	2,054	3,172	34.36%	64.75%
	Franklin	139,459	21,169	41,906	63,641	33.26%	65.85%
	Fulton	14,261	1,576	4,642	6,306	24.99%	73.61%
	Huntingdon	45,552	6,621	11,745	18,730	35.35%	62.71%
	Indiana	32,520	4,588	7,473	12,236	37.50%	61.07%
	Jefferson	45,151	6,447	12,057	18,904	34.10%	63.78%
	Somerset	52,087	7,169	15,087	22,712	31.56%	66.43%
	Venango	31,154	5,069	8,936	14,312	35.42%	62.44%

Moving into the ‘T’ now, this is the first of two extremely Republican districts. Arguably, there are two population centers, one in Altoona in Blair County and the other in Chambersburg in Franklin. From there, it moves northwest, picking up the parts of Somerset, Cambria, Indiana, and Armstrong not packed into Murtha’s 12th, and then the parts of Venango and Clarion not in Dahlkemper’s 3rd. At 34% Obama, this is the most Republican district in Pennsylvania and a 1% drop from the current 9th.

5		689,043	114,992	195,836	315,767	36.42%	62.02%
	Berks	9,899	993	2,312	3,366	29.50%	68.69%
	Centre	46,567	8,837	11,902	21,089	41.90%	56.44%
	Clearfield	9,696	1,511	2,228	3,839	39.36%	58.04%
	Clinton	10,002	1,540	2,434	4,024	38.27%	60.49%
	Cumberland	199,164	43,028	57,531	102,130	42.13%	56.33%
	Dauphin	43,419	8,423	15,149	23,834	35.34%	63.56%
	Juniata	23,163	3,068	6,484	9,819	31.25%	66.04%
	Lebanon	53,875	9,202	16,904	26,528	34.69%	63.72%
	Lycoming	49,426	7,076	15,691	23,131	30.59%	67.84%
	McKean	23,852	2,886	5,596	8,645	33.38%	64.73%
	Mifflin	46,609	5,375	10,929	16,502	32.57%	66.23%
	Montour	3,868	590	1,167	1,771	33.31%	65.89%
	Northumberland	22,909	3,245	6,360	9,734	33.34%	65.34%
	Perry	44,850	6,396	13,058	19,745	32.39%	66.13%
	Potter	18,080	2,300	5,109	7,583	30.33%	67.37%
	Schuylkill	10,533	1,776	3,294	5,139	34.56%	64.10%
	Snyder	23,134	2,499	6,442	9,069	27.56%	71.03%
	Tioga	24,641	3,610	7,527	11,305	31.93%	66.58%
	Union	25,356	2,637	5,719	8,514	30.97%	67.17%

The is the other Republican district taking in a large chunk of the T. More packing of Republicans here, as this district on the east side swaps many tentacles with Chris Carney’s new 10th district. Any pockets of even-remotely Democratic friendliness are pulled out, including Williamsport and Sunbury. What’s left is expansive Republican space, centered in Cumberland County moving north towards the Northern Tier. At 36% Obama, this is a drop of 8%.

10		688,967	134,946	156,456	296,409	45.53%	52.78%
	Berks	8,704	1,724	2,167	3,995	43.15%	54.24%
	Bradford	61,626	10,306	15,057	25,884	39.82%	58.17%
	Columbia	64,663	13,019	14,255	27,838	46.77%	51.21%
	Dauphin	5,728	823	1,231	2,073	39.70%	59.38%
	Lackawanna	44,778	13,784	10,806	24,913	55.33%	43.37%
	Luzerne	11,637	2,044	3,020	5,153	39.67%	58.61%
	Lycoming	67,880	11,305	14,589	26,316	42.96%	55.44%
	Montour	14,368	2,757	3,388	6,216	44.35%	54.50%
	Northumberland	68,307	11,083	12,655	24,201	45.80%	52.29%
	Pike	57,102	11,493	12,519	24,285	47.33%	51.55%
	Schuylkill	108,170	20,758	23,247	44,766	46.37%	51.93%
	Snyder	14,849	2,883	3,458	6,410	44.98%	53.95%
	Sullivan	6,556	1,233	1,841	3,131	39.38%	58.80%
	Susquehanna	41,388	8,381	10,633	19,383	43.24%	54.86%
	Tioga	16,194	2,780	3,799	6,679	41.62%	56.88%
	Union	17,997	4,696	4,140	8,961	52.40%	46.20%
	Wayne	51,139	9,892	12,702	22,932	43.14%	55.39%
	Wyoming	27,881	5,985	6,949	13,273	45.09%	52.35%

You can’t win all of them, and this is the one district that wasn’t to my liking. I really wanted to protect Carney a bit more, but the territory simply wasn’t there to do that and protect the Democratic strength of Kanjorski’s 11th. I chose to hedge a bit and to keep the 11th strongly Democratic. It might be a waste to protect Kanjorski like that, but he’s got to retire eventually and we can definitely get a good Democrat out of Scranton. Thus, this district starts in Wayne and Pike counties, before moving through Susquehanna (Carney lives in Dimock) and northern Lackawanna counties. Lycoming County outside of Williamsport is stripped out as much as possible, and it gains Columbia County and a large chunk of Schuylkill County freed up from Holden’s 17th. Surprisingly, I still managed a gain of 0.5% to 45.5% Obama. Carney should be fine here regardless.

11		689,582	177,101	128,039	309,934	57.14%	41.31%
	Carbon	62,326	13,464	12,957	27,050	49.77%	47.90%
	Lackawanna	164,442	53,736	28,682	83,626	64.26%	34.30%
	Luzerne	300,203	70,448	58,107	130,815	53.85%	44.42%
	Monroe	162,611	39,453	28,293	68,443	57.64%	41.34%

Kanjorski was probably saved in 2008 by Obama’s coattails, and shoring up the 11th was one of my major goals. Surprisingly, this actually becomes more compact, too, it seems. What we get is a district centered on the Lackawanna Valley. 43% of this district is Wilkes-Barre and Luzerne County, and another 23% each for Scranton/Lackawanna County and Monroe County. All in all, a 57% Obama district, up 0.3% from the old 11th. Also a rare victory for compactness.

17		689,314	176,601	148,808	329,673	53.57%	45.14%
	Berks	52,440	11,062	13,461	24,959	44.32%	53.93%
	Cumberland	6,969	1,850	1,782	3,719	49.74%	47.92%
	Dauphin	199,854	59,866	40,264	101,138	59.19%	39.81%
	Lancaster	229,139	60,406	52,477	114,386	52.81%	45.88%
	Lebanon	72,551	14,108	17,410	32,035	44.04%	54.35%
	Schuylkill	28,135	5,938	7,418	13,522	43.91%	54.86%
	York	100,226	23,371	15,996	39,914	58.55%	40.08%

Connect the dots version 2.0 here, as we string together the cities of York, Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Tim Holden’s home in St. Clair in Schuylkill County, all of which are strongly Democratic. They’re counterbalanced by the Republican outlying portions of York, Dauphin, and Lancaster counties, though. However, 59% Obama performances in the 17th’s parts of Dauphin and York and a 53% showing in Lancaster anchor this 54% Obama district on balance, an improvement of 6% from the current 17th.

16		688,715	118,510	197,429	320,910	36.93%	61.52%
	Adams	93,986	16,615	24,678	41,924	39.63%	58.86%
	Berks	9,821	2,245	3,260	5,596	40.12%	58.26%
	Chester	1,059	243	552	806	30.15%	68.49%
	Dauphin	5,275	759	1,576	2,362	32.13%	66.72%
	Lancaster	264,774	39,180	74,091	114,863	34.11%	64.50%
	York	313,800	59,468	93,272	155,359	38.28%	60.04%

This is what remains of the old 16th and 19th districts once the Democratic cities are stripped out. There’s really not much to say about this district based in York and Lancaster, except that it’s the last “Republican” district we have to talk about, it only gets better from here. At 37% Obama, it’s a drop of 6% from the old 19th and 10% from the old 16th – which was intentional, of course.

15		688,754	177,367	136,903	318,961	55.61%	42.92%
	Berks	65,559	15,023	14,970	30,535	49.20%	49.03%
	Lehigh	333,423	87,089	63,382	152,473	57.12%	41.57%
	Northampton	289,772	75,255	58,551	135,953	55.35%	43.07%

Starting with the Lehigh Valley, the 15th continues to have the entirety of Northampton County. Lehigh County did have a bite taken out of it by the old pterodactyl of the 6th, but the Lehigh in its entirety stays here too. Instead of reaching into MontCo with two rods hugging the MontCo-Berks and MontCo-BucksCo line, it goes for Bucks County instead. At 56% Obama, this is a slight improvement. Charlie Dent should be gone as soon as we get a good challenger anyway.

Southeast PA is definitely (in my mind, anyway), the coup de grace of this map. Here’s an inset of that:

Each district is colored by county component: all greens are the 6th or 8th, blues are the 7th or 13th, red is the 1st, and yellow is the 2nd.

First, the boring stuff (i.e. the 1st and 2nd):

1		689,174	266,010	78,010	347,098	76.64%	22.47%
	Delaware	208,267	65,596	42,719	109,675	59.81%	38.95%
	Philadelphia	480,907	200,414	35,291	237,423	84.41%	14.86%

Bob Brady’s district remains anchored in South Philly with an arm into Delaware County. The composition of this arm, however, is significantly different. Brady swaps with Sestak some cities (notably strongly-Democratic Chester city) for some Republican leaning parts of the Main Line. Brady’s old 1st had a 89% Democratic section of DelCo, the new 1st has a 60% Democratic section. This lowers Democratic performance by about 11%, down to 77%. Brady need not be concerned.

2		688,659	303,286	34,983	339,990	89.20%	10.29%
	Philadelphia	688,659	303,286	34,983	339,990	89.20%	10.29%

No significant changes for Chaka Fattah. His district still contains most of West Philly. Cheltenham in MontCo is removed, substituted for an arm into Northeast Philly. The changes aren’t all that significant, the district is only down 0.85% in Obama performance.

8		686,233	199,224	162,328	365,625	54.49%	44.40%
	Bucks	619,093	179,031	150,248	332,924	53.78%	45.13%
	Montgomery	27,576	7,460	5,533	13,168	56.65%	42.02%
	Philadelphia	39,564	12,733	6,547	19,533	65.19%	33.52%

Consistent with tradition, Bucks County remains in the 8th in its entirety. The old 8th had an odd-looking protrusion into MontCo (where Obama got 63%), and took a section of Northeast Philly where Obama barely edged McCain with 49%. We flip the roles here, instead taking Wards 41 and 65 of the city, where Obama got 65%. We also take a few municipalities (funnily, Hatfield Twp, Hatfield Boro, and Hatboro Boro) in MontCo, where Obama got 57%. Overall, Obama got 54.5%, up 0.5%.

13		688,902	224,312	140,834	368,302	60.90%	38.24%
	Montgomery	443,652	144,765	100,434	247,223	58.56%	40.62%
	Philadelphia	245,250	79,547	40,400	121,079	65.70%	33.37%

The 13th remains a MontCo-Philly hybrid. It takes in more of MontCo now, consistent with the increased population constraint, reaching all the way to the Berks County Line. Instead of reaching through the city, the new 13th no longer touches the Delaware River, stopping short by grabbing Northeast Philly taken from the 8th. Centered in Abingdon (it’s the largest municipality), the new 13th’s section of MontCo is 59% Obama, up from 57%, and the new 13th’s section of Philly is 66% Obama, up from 60%. Together, this makes for a 61% Obama district, up from 58%.

7		689,283	219,653	154,096	377,651	58.16%	40.80%
	Chester	211,997	66,693	57,071	125,146	53.29%	45.60%
	Delaware	345,246	113,274	72,554	187,835	60.31%	38.63%
	Montgomery	132,040	39,686	24,471	64,670	61.37%	37.84%

The new 7th stays composed of ChesCo, DelCo, and MontCo. Since more of DelCo is given to Brady’s 1st, this district becomes more Chester County heavy, reaching further north and west into the county. It, incidentally, takes Jim Gerlach’s home in West Pikeland Township here. Even so, the new ChesCo portion is 53% Obama, up from 50%. The DelCo section gets a healthy boost from the city of Chester while keeping in Radnor, Haverford, and Upper Darby along the Main Line. The New DelCo section is 60% Obama, up from 56%. The MontCo part remains mostly the same, taking in Norristown, Upper Merion, and Lower and Upper Providence Townships. Combined, this is a 58% Obama district, up 2.5%.

6		688,652	198,024	136,472	338,576	58.49%	40.31%
	Berks	251,731	66,000	44,343	112,060	58.90%	39.57%
	Chester	265,765	70,897	56,798	129,300	54.83%	43.93%
	Montgomery	171,156	61,127	35,331	97,216	62.88%	36.34%

My favorite district. The pterodactyl is back (hence the title, get it?), and it’s leaner and meaner (to Republicans, anyway). The body remains majority Chester, but it swaps out a large swath of eastern ChesCo for townships along the Lancaster County line freed up from the 16th. It still, however, keeps Democratic centers in Downington and Coatesville, and adds West Chester proper, which was gerrymandered into the 16th before. Obama performed roughly the same in the old and new Chester part.

As before, the left wing reaches into Berks County, but before, Reading was cracked three ways between the 6th, 16th, and 17th. Now, Reading and its 81% Obama goodness are kept whole in this district, raising Obama’s performance in Berks from 54% to 59%. The right arm is still my favorite. Originally, Republicans conceived of this as a way to crack MontCo into two Republican (PA-06, PA-07) and one swing district (PA-13). This is best termed, I think, an EPIC FAIL. The old right arm was 64% Obama, and this new version is 63%. I maintained the anchor in Lower Merion Township and Narberth, since their combined 71% Obama goodness is just too good to give up. Combined, this raises Obama’s performance here by another 1% to 58.5%.

So there you have it, a new, 18-seat map for Pennsylvania. Comments? Questions? Which state should I do next? Please share what you think the districts look like, also!

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

Castle (R) 44%

Biden (D) 36%

“Mike Castle has served in statewide office now for almost 30 years and that higher level of familiarity with Delaware voters gives him an advantage over Beau Biden,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Biden’s numbers would surely improve as he became more well known to voters in a statewide campaign but I’m sure the Democrats would nonetheless be quite happy for Congressman Castle to stay where he is.”

44-36 strikes me as kinda lousy considering Castle is an institution in the state. Not that many expect him to run anyway but on this evidence even if he does I think Biden would still win quite easily. Against anyone but Castle it is over before it starts obviously.

Here’s the full write up on each race. 

OK, I know we just came off of 2008, and there were a lot of competitive races nationally, as well as in Florida. But, 10 is just a big number. I mean we’ve only got 25 seats in the House, so 10 of them being competitive is a huge deal. Don’t get too excited though, they aren’t all possible D pickups.

2nd (Tallahassee, etc.): Congressman Allen Boyd, a Blue Dog, is being primary challenged by Al Lawson, term-out state Senate leader. Lawson, no true progressive, will run to the Left of Boyd. My prediction: the challenge never really materializes, and Boyd keeps his seat.



8th (Orlando, etc.): Grayson beat Keller here in 2008. Since winning, Grayson has shown his true colors as an ‘aggressive’ progressive. Nothing wrong with that in my book, but will his voters find him out of sync with them? I think it’s less of a question about Grayson but more about who the Rs can put up against him.



10th (St. Petersburg, etc.) Will Bill Young ever retire?



12th  (Lakeland, etc.) Adam Putnam is vacating to run for Ag Commissioner. Dennis Ross, former state Senator, is the defacto Republican nominee; Lori Edwards, Polk county Supervisor of Elections, is the prominent D in the race. Definitely will be a race to watch.



13th (Sarasota, etc.) What is Vern Buchanan doing? He’s talking about a Senate race; perhaps because the Ds will never let him just have the district. If he vacates, watch for a strong race in a tight district.



16th (Palm Beach County, etc.) Southern Political Report ranks this one. I’m not so sure it’s competitive. Tom Rooney will win again, but he will be challenged by a strong D. Just not sure the D will ever be able to take off.



17th (Miami, etc.) Who will replace K-Meek? Whoever wins this primary will be the new Rep.



22nd (Fort Lauderdale, etc.) This is another, ‘What will person X do?’ race. Ron Klein may get into the Senate race. Even if he doesn’t, he will never go unchallenged in this swingy district. But, if he runs for reelection, Klein should sail to victory again.



24th (Orlando, etc.) Kosmas, who just took her seat in January, will face a strong, but yet to be determined, Republican. Feeney had questionable morals, which inevitably led to his downfall. The national Rs will look to the 24th to run a strong campaign and reclaim the district.



25th (Miami, etc.): The 3 Miami area Ds who ran in 2008 never took off in their races like the national party expected. But, expect to see strong races again down in the Miami area. In the 25th, Joe Garcia will likely again challenge Mario Diaz Balart, but just ask Christine Jennings what happens to second time candidates.

So those are my thoughts. What are yours?  

(This is a tremendous effort and a model for all future redistricting diaries, of which I’m sure we can expect many in the coming years – promoted by DavidNYC)

After reading Duffman’s excellent diary on redistricting New Jersey, I thought I’d take a crack at a 12-seat map. (I had done a 13-seat map awhile back, but it’s not nearly as exciting.) Unlike Duffman, though, I’m horribly shameless and did this without any intent of compactness, which I think will become readily obvious. My goal was to squeeze as many Democratic districts out as possible, while still conforming to the VRA.

I think I pretty much pulled out all the tricks in the book, while keeping Democratic incumbents in their home districts (although, seriously, Frank Pallone, get the f— out of Long Branch – you are singlehandedly responsible for half the ugliness of NJ districts). In the end, we get a 10-2 Democratic map, one where no Democratic district was less than 54% Obama at that. Maps, summary statistics, and more sardonic commentary over the flip.

To start, I used this map of Obama’s performance. Red/blue are obvious. Lightest shade is a margin of less than 5%, then 5-10, 10-20, and above 20. There’s a corresponding map for average margin from 2004-2006 (2008 hadn’t happened when I did the 13-seat map), which averages Kerry, Corzine, and Menendez’s margins.

So going district by district, here’s what we’ve got (for statistics, I also have raw vote totals, but I don’t think that’s as important here. The numbers here, in order, are: Population, Obama%, McCain%, Kerry%, Bush% in 2004.

Bottom line is, I don’t like Rob Andrews. I think what he pulled with his seat after challenging Lautenberg is pure BS, and I don’t think you’ll find me shedding any tears if he suddenly disappeared off the political stage. With that in mind, I tried to make his district less Camden-centric. It incorporates the entirety of Gloucester and Salem counties, along with the Republican parts of Salem. Camden proper and Andrews’ home in Haddon Heights is still here, but with the inclusion of Evesham Township in Burlington County, this district is majority not-Camden County. Obama ran just shy of 60%, Kerry got 55% – enough for a staunch Dem district.

I think there’s a lot of untapped potential in NJ-02, and we never seem to be able to capitalize. Unfortunately, with the slower population growth, this district has to expand northward. This district contains all of Atlantic and Cape May counties, and the parts of Cumberland not in the NJ-01. I’d like to think the split worked, given that Obama earned 62% in the NJ-02 part of Cumberland, while only 45% in the 1st. Throw in a bit of Ocean County, an arm into Camden, and some of Burlington including Democratic Pemberton, and you get a 54% Obama district. Kerry only narrowly lost here. Frank LoBiondo’s home in Ventnor City remains.

In my mind, there’s no point in dragging NJ-03 out to the Jersey shore, forcing it to pick up some nasty bits of Ocean County. (Packing and cracking, holler.) So this district pretty much runs diagonally up the state. Burlington is the center of population, but John Adler’s home of Cherry Hill (along with other Camden municipalities) stay in. Instead of touching Ocean County, it instead grabs some of the somewhat less-Republican Monmouth County – including Freehold and Marlboro Townships. On balance, you get a 57% Obama district – a big improvement over the 52% Obama scored in the current 3rd.

Well, the Republicans have to go somewhere, and this district is it. I tried to string together the most Republican parts of Ocean and Monmouth, and this strip running up the Jersey shore is what you get. I probably could have done a better job in Monmouth by pulling out some of the Democratic municipalities like Red Bank and given them to NJ-06, but that would have messed up the Middlesex districting. I take pride in that both Republican districts had Kerry scoring less than 40%, and Obama getting no more than 42%. I know that technically, Christopher Smith’s house in Hamilton Township is in Mercer County, but eh, I have no reservations against drawing Republicans out.

The other Republican district around here. Again, I tried to pack as much nastiness into this one district, and I think I mostly succeeded. This district takes in all of Sussex County. Originally, all of Warren and more of Morris county were going to go in, but I realized through some creative “tentacling,” this district could grab out some of the less-hospitable bits of Bergen (maintaining the Democratic performance in Steve Rothman’s district) without endangering Rush Holt. Hence the tentacles into Morris, Somerset, and Hunterdon. I think this also shows the relatively larger swing that Obama got in Northwest Jersey, as Obama did better here than in NJ-04, while Kerry did worse. Yes, Scott Garrett’s home in Wantage Township is still here.

When looking at the Presidential results, I realized that Plainfield, at 93% Obama (!!), was part of what was anchoring the Democratic performance here. This was putting a crimp in my plans for NJ-07, so I tried to keep the performance here up without Plainfield. The fact that this had to reach around large swaths of Monmouth County though, was a challenge. I thought Obama performed less well in the Monmouth part of the district (anchored in Asbury Park and Long Branch), but at 57%, no one’s complaining. Frank Pallone lives in Long Branch, which is along the shore (…seriously, move.) Staunchly Republican Middletown Township was getting in the way, along with roughly 50-50 Old Bridge. Luckily, the Brunswicks – New, North, East, and South – were happy to oblige, leaving Obama just shy of 60% here. Yes, this district is contiguous – just ask Sea Bright and Keansburg.

I had designed an old 7th district for Linda Stender awhile ago (when I thought she was going to win), so I made sure to keep Scotch Plains in this district. I also thought we were letting Democratic votes go to waste in Morristown, so I strung the two together. Because of the increased population requirement in going from 13 to 12 districts, this district takes in more bits of Essex and Somerset counties than before, but Obama’s solid 60% in the Plainfield-Westfield-Scotch Plains-Union Township anchor keeps this district at 55% Obama. Incidentally, Rod Frelinghuysen’s home in Harding Township gets placed here.

There are some good Democratic votes in Essex County that I didn’t want to all pack into Donald Payne’s district, so this is where they went. Added is Southern Passaic County, especially the very Democratic cities of Passaic, Clifton, and Paterson (where Bill Pascrell lives, incidentally). Also to relieve pressure on Steve Rothman, this district takes in four municipalities in Southwest Bergen County. You get a 61% Obama district, a few points shy of the current 8th, but Pascrell will survive.

This district, I think, changes the least from the current configuration. It keeps most of southern Bergen county. I would specify the municipalities that form the core, but I think the heuristic ‘towns in which you’re stuck in traffic on 95 before the Bridge” works well enough. It does reach a bit farther north than before, hitting the New York state line, and also south into Secaucus and Kearny in Hudson County – so basically, all of I-95 north of the Turnpike split and the Meadowlands. Fair Lawn – Steve Rothman’s residence – remains in this 61% Obama district.

The current NJ-10 and NJ-13 I always thought had unnecessary encroachments on each other, and this configuration cleaves Newark and Jersey City into separate districts. Obviously, this is centered on Newark (Donald Payne’s residence), which has about 40% of the district’s population. Also included are the Oranges, and a branch to hit Roselle Park through Elizabeth. I didn’t want too much Democratic goodness in Union and Essex to go here, so it reaches northwest from Newark to hit the nasty parts (Essex Fells, Fairfield, etc) and has a township in Morris County included for good measure. By my calculations, this district is 47.5% African-American and another 23% Hispanic/Latino, which should satisfy the VRA as a ‘coalition’ district. At 82% Democratic, this is the most Democratic in New Jersey.

Renumbered from the 13th, this district is centered on Jersey City and Bayonne. It also includes Hoboken and Albio Sires’ home in West New York. Going south, it goes through Elizabeth and Linden in Union county to Carteret, Woodbridge, and Perth Amboy in Middlesex. This district is 42% Hispanic and another 15% African-American, which again should satisfy the VRA. I think that’s why the current NJ-10 and 13 interfere so much, so that the majority-Black areas in Jersey City are included in the 10th and the predominantly Hispanic areas in Newark are kept in the 13th. Either way, 72% Obama, no worries.

Unquestionably, this is the district I’m most proud of. The current map was designed to help Rush Holt, and he does happen to be one of the Congresspeople I like more than most. So I set out trying to draw a good district for him. Obviously, the Democratic strength would have to come from Mercer County. Trenton is currently split between NJ-04 and this one, but with NJ-04 out of the picture, all of 93% Obama Trenton can fit here. Throw in Hopewell, Princeton, and you get a 74% Obama section. To the North, this district basically carves out the less Republican parts of Hunterdon, Warren and Somerset, and I think this shows – Obama scored 45% in this district’s part of Hunterdon, 46% in Warren, and 53% in Somerset, as opposed to the 38% he got in the parts of Hunterdon and Warren in the 5th and 40% in Somerset. Rush Holt’s home in Hopewell Township is here (as is Leonard Lance’s residence in Clinton Township in Hunterdon). At 57.9% Obama, this is only a 0.20% drop from Holt’s current district. Oh and yes, it is contiguous.

So there you have it. Questions, comments?

If you want shapefiles, vote statistics, outline maps, please ask!

The 2010 Census is coming up, and that means new Congressional districts. After the 2000 Census, New Jersey has 13 districts. After the 2010 Census, New Jersey is projected to have 12 districts. It will lose a district because it has not kept up with national population growth.

Here is the current Congressional Districts:



For a better view of the Congressional Districts, see this pdf provided by the state government.

Some observations:

1. 8 of the districts are represented by Democrats. 5 are represented by Republicans.

2. Some of the districts have very odd shapes. It looks ridiculously gerrymandered.

3. Many individual cities and towns are divided between 2 districts. (Jersey City is in 3 districts.) However no city in New Jersey has enough population to fill a congressional district.

4. 5 of the 21 counties have 4 districts in them. 4 more counties have 3 districts in them. However only a few counties (just Essex, Bergen, and Middlesex) have enough population to fill a congressional district.

5. The district numbers don’t make sense. They seem to be numbered at random. It would look better if the 5th and 12th switch numbers.

Some goals for drawing the new districts should include: make the districts as compact as possible, keep municipalities together at all times, keep counties together as much as possible, and number the districts in a way that makes sense.

When New Jersey does its redistricting, they focus on incumbent protection. Since 2000, one one district has changed parties. (We can still change that in 2010.) Only 3 others have even changed representatives! The 2010 plan should make the district that flipped (NJ-03) more solidly Democratic. But this time NJ is losing a district, so not all of the incumbents can be protected. Ask any NJ Democrat which Congressman they would like to see eliminated, and the answer will invariably be Scott Garrett. So my 2010 map turns the 3 Republican districts in Northern NJ into 2 Republican districts.

I used 2007 population estimates provided by the Census to create the new districts. The estimate for New Jersey is 8,686,000 people. That means each district has close to 724,000 people.

Here is what I came up with:



Look at those beautiful compact districts!

Numbers on the right map are population per district per county, in thousands.

Feel free to steal it. If you want a blank template without numbers and county names then email me.

Note: PVI’s are based on the 2000 and 2004 Presidential Elections. New PVI’s are guesses, not calculations.

NJ-01:

Current district NJ-02 has a fairly strong Dem PVI, but Republican Congressman Frank LoBiondo manages to keep getting reelected easily. Except for the Atlantic City area, it is mostly rural. Due to slow population growth in the region, it will have to expand after 2010. It will almost certainly expand into Ocean County (conservative), and probably lose ground in Gloucester County (liberal). Therefore this district will become more Republican after 2010. If a Democrat wants to challenge Frank LoBiondo then 2010 is the year. After that it will get harder.

NJ-02:

Current district NJ-01 is centered around Camden and its immediate suburbs. In 2000 it was designed to be the only Dem district in South Jersey, so it packs in all the Dem strongholds around Camden (directly across the border from Philadelphia). The region’s population growth has not kept up with the national average, so the district will expand. It can’t expand into Cherry Hill because John Adler lives there. All of Camden and Gloucester County minus Cherry Hill and Merchantville has the right number of people to fill a district, according to 2007 Census estimates.

NJ-03:

NJ-03 is the only district that flipped parties this decade. It was designed to keep electing Republican Congressman Jim Saxton. In 2008 Saxton retired and Democrat John Adler won it 52-48. The district in its current form has 2 population centers. Cherry Hill and western Burlington County is strongly Democratic. Ocean County is strong Republican. The huge swath of land in between is sparsely populated. The way to make this district safer for Adler is to remove the Ocean County part, and add more Burlington County. In order to get enough people, the proposed district extends into Mercer County to include Hamilton and Trenton.

NJ-04:

In 2008 Chris Smith was elected to his 15th term in Congress. He was first elected to Congress at the age of 27, and he will keep getting reelected for as long as he wants. If we can’t beat him then we should pack more Republican parts into his district. His current district includes parts of Mercer, Burlington, Monmouth and Ocean counties. To make it more Republican, take out the Mercer and Burlington parts (and give them to Adler in NJ-03), and add more Monmouth and Ocean. Monmouth and Ocean counties are trending more Republican. Obama won a smaller percent of the vote in these 2 counties than Gore did in 2000. Chris Smith lives in Hamilton so he will have to move. That won’t be hard because he actually lives in Northern Virginia and he rents an empty apartment in Hamilton.

NJ-05:

This is the Rush Holt district (currently NJ-12 for some reason). The current district is weird-shaped because it reaches into Hunderdon and Monmouth Counties. The proposed district will consist of only Mercer, Middlesex and Somerset. This plan shows the district spanning from Hopewell to Edison, including both Princeton and Rutgers Universities.

NJ-06:

Current NJ-06 is probably the craziest-shaped district in the state. Proposed NJ-06 is much better. It’s still not as compact as the others because it has to follow the coast. The reason for its crazy shape was probably to take in only the very-Democratic parts, so there can be 3 Republican districts in North Jersey. With only 2 Republican districts in North Jersey it is much easier to give NJ-06 intelligible boundaries. Frank Pallone lives in Long Branch, on the Monmouth shore, so the Monmouth shore will continue to be part of the district, even as the region trends more Republican.

NJ-07:

Current NJ-07 is the other very crazy-shaped district. Most of its population is in the high-density suburbs in Union and Middlesex County. But Congressman Leonard Lance is from rural Hunterdon County. To make this district a better fit for Lance I removed Union and Middlesex and added Sussex, Warren, and “outer” Morris.

NJ-08:

This is now the second Republican district in North Jersey. It is made out of the current districts NJ-07 and NJ-11. Rodney Frehlinghuysen will be the incumbent Congressman and he should be able to get reelected easily. But this may become a swing district when it opens up.

NJ-09:

This is the majority-black district. Using 2000 demographic information, the proposed district is 48% black. 48% is enough to elect a black Congressman because black people are more likely than white people to vote in the Democratic primary. It is centered around Newark and the Oranges. The current NJ-10 is 58% black but I traded some black population for compactness.

NJ-10:

This is the majority-Hispanic district. It consists of Hudson County plus Elizabeth. This just happens to have the right number of people for a district. This proposed district is 43% Hispanic. 43% should be enough to elect a Hispanic Congressman (see above). The current NJ-13 is 48% Hispanic. This proposed configuration is nice and compact. There are other possible centers of Hispanic population (Passaic, Paterson) but it would take some creative gerrymandering to reach them.

NJ-11:

The current NJ-09 is in Hudson and Bergen County. The proposed NJ-11 is entirely within Bergen. Northern Bergen County is currently part of NJ-05, represented by Scott Garrett. Show this map to any Dem in Bergen County and you will be greeted as a liberator.

NJ-12:

Proposed NJ-12 consists of the rest of Bergen County, most of Passaic County, and bits of Essex County. Urban northern NJ is losing population, so Steve Rothman and Bill Pascrell are getting pushed into the suburbs.

Cross-posted on Daily Kos.

Pass the popcorn.  It’s going to be a bumpy ride to 2010 in Illinois.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITI…

Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn called Friday for Sen. Roland Burris to resign.

“At this time we have a senator who has a cloud over his head,” Quinn said at a news conference. “It’s time (for Burris) to put the interest of the people of the land of Lincoln ahead of his own and step aside and resign from office.

“I think very highly of his career. He’s done so many good things,” Quinn said. “But at this time… to step away and resign (would be) a heroic act.”

It was a “gigantic mistake” for Burris to accept a Senate appointment from disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich, Quinn said. Quinn replaced Blagojevich when he was removed from office last month.

The Senate Ethics Committee has launched an investigation of Burris in the wake of disclosures that he spoke with Blagojevich’s brother about possibly raising money for the former governor.  Watch troubles mount for Burris »

The Sangamon County, Illinois, state’s attorney is also considering whether to file perjury charges against Burris.

Burris insisted Wednesday that he was innocent of any wrongdoing in his appointment to the Senate seat formerly held by President Obama.

“It is time to “squarely address the issue and do what’s right for the public interest,” Quinn said. iReport.com: Should Burris resign?

Quinn said he supported a bill introduced in the Illinois legislature that would set up a special election for all future U.S. Senate vacancies.

Illinois needs a “clear process for dealing with the issue of vacancies when it comes to the United States Senate,” Quinn said.

The bill would allow the governor to set the date of a special Senate primary within 72 days of the vacancy. A general election would follow within six weeks after the primary.

The governor would be empowered to name a temporary replacement until the special election.

Quinn said that if given the power to name a replacement he would not name someone with an interest in running in the special election.

Quinn was sworn in as Illinois’ governor on January 29. He had been serving as the state’s lieutenant governor until Blagojevich was removed from office.

Strategic Vision (R) has a new poll of the Florida Senate race, with some different names being polled than past polls.  The poll results are based on telephone interviews with 1200 likely voters in Florida, aged 18+, and conducted February 6-8, 2009. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

2010 Senate Democratic Primary

Ron Klein 12%

Kendrick Meek 10%

Pam Iorio 8%

Dan Gelber 4%

Undecided 66%

2010 Senate Republican Primary with Crist

Charlie Crist 54%

Connie Mack IV 16%

Vern Buchanan 10%

Alan Bense 7%

Marco Rubio 4%

Undecided 9%

2010 Senate Republican Primary without Crist

Connie Mack IV 21%

Vern Buchanan 11%

Alan Bense 8%

Marco Rubio 5%

Undecided 9%

2010 Senate General Election

Crist 58%, Klein 24%

Crist 60%, Meek 26%

Crist 57%, Iorio 29%

Crist 58%, Gelber 27%

Mack 32%, Klein 27%

Mack 35%, Meek 25%

Mack 32%, Iorio 30%

Mack 33%, Gelber 20%

Buchanan 24%, Klein 28%

Buchanan 29%, Meek 23%

Buchanan 26%, Iorio 30%

Buchanan 23%, Gelber 20%

Bense 22%, Klein 27%

Bense 28%, Meek 21%

Bense 24%, Iorio 30%

Bense 27%, Gelber 25%

Rubio 18%, Klein 29%

Rubio 26%, Meek 24%

Rubio 19%, Iorio 32%

Rubio 22%, Gelber 17%

Not sure if this poll tells us too much.  Clearly, Crist dominates if he runs.  If he doesn’t, then the race is wide open.

Among the Democrats, Iorio consistently polled best in the general election match-ups, followed by Klein, then Meek, with Gelber last.  Of course, there are huge numbers of undecideds, so it’s impossible to say who would be the strongest general election candidate for the Democrats this far out.  When the primary is this open, I hope the DSCC stays out, as I think the strongest candidate tends to emerge from the primary.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 2/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trendlines)

Tiahrt (R) 37

Sebelius (D) 47

Moran (R) 36

Sebelius (D) 48

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

Contradicting that earlier GOP primary poll Tiahrt leads Moran 24-19.

“Yet here we have Gov. Kathleen Sebelius coming in with a solid 56-37 approval rating, including a surprisingly good 42-54 among Republicans, which is important given that Republicans make up half the state’s voters. In the head-to-head matchups, Sebelius, gets about a third of those voters. Independents, another quarter of the voter pool, like her at a 63-27 clip. If those numbers held up, she’d make history by having a Democrat represent Kansas in the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1939.”

Run Kathleen, run!

“Exploratory committees almost always are precursors to full-fledged campaigns, though Gerlach said Thursday’s announcement was not tantamount to a declaration of candidacy. He issued a written statement saying he would take the next few months to “speak with political, business and community leaders, help our 2009 statewide judicial candidates, conduct polling and determine if there is a clear path to victory.”

“I suspect that by late spring we’ll know whether to formally move forward with a campaign for governor,” he added.”

He really does see the writing on the wall. His House seat should be a relatively straight-forward pickup in an open seat no?

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp…

Since noone else brought it up I figured I would.  Kos sponsored another R2K poll.  This one on the Florida Senate race in 2010.  It really doesn’t tell us much since many of the candidates have announced they are not running.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

Primary polls:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 1/26-28. Likely voters. MoE 4%, 5% for primary samples (No trendlines)

Democratic Primary

Meek 17

Boyd 8

Gelber 3

Undecided 72

Republican Primary

Crist 57

McCollum 11

Rubio 4

Republican Primary

McCollum 28

Rubio 12

General Polls:

Crist (R) 49

Meek (D) 28

Meek (D) 31

Rubio (R) 22

Crist (R) 52

Gelber (D) 21

Gelber (D) 23

Rubio (R) 23