Tag: 2010

 You may remember all the baseline diaries I used to post here. Now that election day is only two days away, I have combined all my baseline diaries together so you can look at them while watching the returns come in. I did this with the Washington Primary in August and I thought it worked well. This diary goes on for awhile.

If swing state project has to crash on Nov. 2nd (God forbid,) you can still see my baseline diaries by going to my blog: http://frogandturtle.blogspot….

California Gubernatorial race baselines combining results from 2006 Attorney General election and 2008 Presidential election:

Dark Red: Whitman 70%+

Red: Whitman 56%-69%

Light Red: Whitman 50%-55%

Light Blue: Brown 50%-55%

Blue: Brown 56%-69%

Dark Blue: Brown 70%+

Regional breakdowns:

Bay Area:

Now for the Maryland Gubernatorial race which recently is going toward Martin O’Malley (D). It combines the results of the 2008 Presidential election with the 2006 Gubernatorial election results.

Dark Red=Ehlrich 70%+

Red=Ehlrich 60%-69%

Light Red=Ehlrich 50%-69%

Blue=O’Malley 60%-69%

Dark Blue= O’Malley 70%+

For a clearer map: http://quickfacts.census.gov/q…



County name O’Malley Ehlrich Other

Alleghany 32% 67% 1%

Anne Arundel 38% 61% 1%

Baltimore County 46% 53% 1%

Balitmore City 73% 26% 1%

Calvert 36% 63% 1%

Caroline 27% 72% 1%

Carrol 23% 76% 1%

Cecil 34% 65% 1%

Charles 49% 50% 1%

Dorcester 33% 66% 1%

Frederick 36% 63% 1%

Garrett 22% 77% 1%

Harford 30% 69% 1%

Howard 48% 51% 1%

Kent 39% 60% 1%

Montgomery 60% 39% 1%

Prince George’s 76% 23% 1%

Queen Anne’s 26% 73% 1%

Somerset 36% 63% 1%

St. Mary’s 33% 66% 1%

Talbot 32% 67% 1%

Washington 32% 67% 1%

Wicomico 34% 65% 1%

Worcester 30% 69% 1%

Now for the Oregon Gubernatorial race with a combination of the 2008 Presidential election and the 1998 Gubernatorial race with John Kitzhaber.

Dark Blue: Kitzhaber 50%+

Blue: Kitzhaber 50%-59%

Light Red: Dudley 50%-59%

Red: Dudley 60%-69%

Dark Red: Dudley 70%+

A clearer map: http://quickfacts.census.gov/q…



Counties Kitzhaber Dudley

Baker 32% 68%

Benton 57% 43%

Clackamas 48% 52%

Clatsop 54% 46%

Columbia 50% 50%

Coos 43% 57%

Crook 32% 68%

Curry 39% 61%

Deschutes 42% 58%

Douglas 36% 64%

Gilliam 43% 57%

Grant 27% 73%

Harney 26% 74%

Hood River 55% 45%

Jackson 44% 56%

Jefferson 42% 58%

Josephine 35% 65%

Klamath 29% 71%

Lake 26% 74%

Lane 56% 44%

Lincoln 54% 46%

Linn 40% 60%

Malheur 25% 75%

Marion 46% 54%

Morrow 40% 60%

Multnomah 66% 34%

Polk 45% 55%

Sherman 40% 60%

Tillamook 51% 49%

Umatilla 40% 60%

Union 38% 62%

Wallowa 33% 67%

Wasco 50% 50%

Washington 52% 48%

Wheeler 34% 66%

Yamhill 44% 56%

Now for Washington Senate combining results from the 2008 Presidential election, 2004 Senatorial race and 2004 Gubernatorial race.

Dark Red: Rossi 65% +

Red: Rossi 55%-64%

Light Red: Rossi 50%-54%

Light Blue: Murray 50%-54%

Blue: Murray 55%-64%

Dark Blue: Murray 65%+

Here is a better quality map of Washington: http://quickfacts.census.gov/q…

List of counties:

County Names Murray Rossi Percentages

Adams 853 2,305 27%-73%

Asotin 2,416 3,941 38%-62%

Benton 14,301 33,369 30%-70%

Chelan 7,568 13,337 36%-64%

Clallam 11,142 13,896 45%-55%

Clark 53,080 66,470 44%-56%

Columbia 415 1,052 28%-72%

Cowlitz 14,377 15,206 49%-51%

Douglas 3,178 6,754 32%-68%

Ferry 848 1,450 37%-63%

Franklin 4,027 8,839 31%-69%

Garfield 237 655 27%-73%

Grant 5,226 12,735 29%-71%

Grays Harbor 9,580 9,390 51%-49%

Island 12,414 14,990 45%-55%

Jefferson 7,690 5,389 59%-41%

King 366,136 236,061 61%-39%

Kitsap 39,653 41,604 49%-51%

Kittitas 4,545 7,140 39%-61%

Klickitat 2,821 3,785 43%-57%

Lewis 7,251 15,478 32%-68%

Lincoln 1,152 2,753 30%-70%

Mason 8,840 9,692 48%-52%

Okanogan 4,173 6,879 38%-62%

Pacific 3,672 3,513 51%-49%

Pend Oreille 1,640 2,653 38%-62%

Pierce 103,807 111,561 48%-52%

San Juan 4,245 2,635 62%-38%

Skagit 16,819 19,745 46%-54%

Skamina 1,634 1,934 46%-54%

Snohomish 104,923 104,505 50%-50%

Spokane 61,628 82,026 43%-57%

Stevens 4,904 9,780 33%-67%

Thurston 44,051 38,752 53%-47%

Wahkiakum 672 825 45%-55%

Walla Walla 5,805 10,365 36%-64%

Whatcom 33,054 32,530 50%-50%

Whitman 4,984 6,448 44%-56%

Yakima 17,919 31,310 36%-64%

Total 991,680 991,752 50%-50%

Here is how the baselines break down regionally:

Seattle & Vicinity

Counties   Murray Rossi

King 366,136  236,061 61%-39%

Snohomish 104,923  104,505 50%-50%

Pierce 103,807  111,561 48%-52%

Kitsap 39,653  41,604 49%-51%

Thurston 44,051  38,752 53%-47%

Total 658,570  532,483 55%-45%

Coastal Washington Murray Rossi

Whatcom 33,054 32,530 50%-50%

Skagit 16,819 19,745 46%-54%

San Juan 4,245 2,635 62%-38%

Island 12,414 14,990 45%-55%

Clallam 11,142 13,896 45%-55%

Jefferson 7,690 5,389 59%-41%

Mason 8,840 9,692 48%-52%

Grays Harbor 9,580 9,390 51%-49%

Pacific 3,672 3,513 51%-49%

Lewis 7,251 15,478 32%-68%

Wahkiakum 672 825 45%-55%

Cowlitz 14,377 15,206 49%-51%

Clark 53,080 66,470 44%-56%

Skamina 1,634 1,934 46%-54%

Total 184,470 211,693 47%-53%

Rest of the State

           Murray Rossi

Total 148,640 247,576 38%-62%

Hi folks –

GERRYMANDERING is going to be in theaters nationwide this week.  The last time I wrote about it here, lots of folks wanted to know when it would hit certain areas, so here’s our opening salvo.

I’ll be doing Q&As in a bunch of places, so I hope folks come out and ask hard questions!  

10/12*: Camera 3 – San Jose, CA

10/12*+: Catamount Arts – St. Johnsbury, VT

10/12*+: Cinema Paradiso – Ft. Lauderdale, FL

10/12*: Lake Worth Playhouse – Lake Worth, FL

10/12*: Varsity Cinema – Davis, CA

10/12*+: 5 Points Theatre – Jacksonville, FL

10/12*: Mos’ Art – Lake Park, FL

10/12*+: Theatre N – Wilmington, DE

10/12*+: Palm Theater – Telluride CO

10/12*+: Riviera Theatre – Three Rivers, MI

10/12*: Beach Theater – St. Pete Beach, FL

10/13*: Pickford Film Center – Bellingham, WA

10/13*: Galaxy Cinema – Cary, NC

10/14-24+: Hawaii International Film Festival, Honolulu, HI

10/14-25+: Philadelphia Film Festival – Philadelphia, PA

10/15+: Village East – New York, NY

10/15+: Nuart – Los Angeles, CA

10/15: Lumiere – San Francisco, CA

10/15: Shattuck – Berkeley, CA

10/15: Ken – San Diego, CA

10/15-17+: Downbeach Film Festival – Atlantic City, NJ

10/19*: Crest Theater – Sacramento, CA

10/20-24: IndieMemphis Film Festival – Memphis, TN

10/22-24: Tallgrass Film Festival – Wichita, KS

10/22*: Byrd Theater – Richmond, VA

10/25*: Belcourt Theater – Nashville, TN

10/29+: West End Theatre – Washington, D.C.

11/1*: Salt Lake City Film Society – Salt Lake City, UT

11/1*: University of Maryland – College Park, MD

11/12*: Miami City Hall – Miami, FL

11/12: Valley Art – Phoenix, AZ

BOLD = Full Theatrical Engagements

*One-night only

+Q&As (Check local listings for details

We’ll be updating screenings here: http://www.gerrymanderingmovie…

Advance word has been terrific thus far:

“An exceptionally entertaining film.” – Bilge Ebiri, New York Magazine

“Every American voter should see this.” – Paul Constant, The Stranger

“****.  If you care about the future of America, see this movie.” – Matt Thomas, NY Examiner

“Cinematic – in the best way – all the way through.” – Howard Feinstein, Screen International

“A film seemingly made for Jon Stewart’s ‘Restoring Sanity’ movement.” – Stan Hall, The Oregonian

With Arnold Schwarzenegger retiring, Democrats thought they would have a great shot at picking up California’s Governorship. Then, they ran into problems. Jerry Brown who is the Attorney General and former Governor decided to run. He has material to attack and he knocked other candidates out of the primary who would have won the general election more easily like Antonio Villaraigosa. Then Meg Whitman, former CEO of ebay from Silicon Valley decided to run and brought all her money with her. The worst part is that this is a Republican year, putting the national mood against Democrats. Now Jerry Brown is running a tight race with Meg Whitman but since California is so Democratic, Whitman’s $119 million in ads have only been able to tie the race. Jerry Brown is finally campaigning and after a strong debate performance, he is leading by around 5 points. Also, the housekeeper scandal will hurt Whitman. The issue though is that Meg Whitman though can just write herself another check so she can buy the election instead of winning it. Whitman may be able to stifle the housekeeper story and if she does, it can still be a close race.  This is why I created the baselines for the race. I factored in Presidential results from 2008 and Attorney General results from 2006.

The baselines are predictions for county percentages if the race is tied. The baselines show Brown doing well in the Bay Area but getting crushed in the Central Valley. He also carries two of three bellwether counties. He wins Lake and San Benito counties but loses Santa Barbara County. He also does poorly in Southern California except for LA County which he wins by 16 points. Also, I have the vote totals for each county below too. I had the turnout levels be 65% of 2008. I did not take into account the fact that some parts of the state might have 55% turnout of 2008 or 75%. For Jerry Brown to win, he will have to either increase turnout in the Bay Area or increase his vote percentage there. Okay, here are the baselines and a few links:

http://quickfacts.census.gov/q… clearer map of California

http://uselectionatlas.org/RES… 2008 results

http://www.sos.ca.gov/election… 2006 Attorney General results

Regional Breakdowns

Bay Area:

So I figure like a lot of you already have, I need to put my ass on the line and make a projection this year. I delayed this as long as I could, wanting to see how things shake out and hoping things got a bit better for Team Blue. They did, and they didn’t: we got Christie O’Donnell, but Russ Feingold is now locked in a tight race.

So here we go. For the record, I have a Republican pickup of six seats right now. Pickups are designated in bold. I have determined for my purposes, its cowardly to call a race a tossup, so I don’t have that category in my rankings. I don’t have the Dems picking up any Republican seats, although I hold out the most hope in Kentucky. I’m going to try to do this for governors races (and if I get really ambitious, the House) at a later date.  

Safe Dem

Oregon – Ron Wyden – D-incumbent

New York A – Chuck Schumer – D-incumbent

Maryland – Barbara Milkulski – D-incumbent

Hawaii – Daniel Inouye – D-incumbent

Vermont – Patrick Leahy – D-incumbent

Safe Republican

Alabama – Richard Shelby – R-incumbent

Arizona – John McCain – R-incumbent

Idaho – Mike Crapo – R-incumbent

South Dakota – John Thune – R-incumbent

Iowa – Chuck Grassley – R-incumbent. I thought this one might have more potential at one point, but I don’t see it now.

Oklahoma – Tom Coburn – R incumbent

South Carolina – Jim DeMint – R incumbent.

Georgia – Johnny Isakson – R incumbent

Kansas – Jerry Moran – Republican challenger

Utah – Mike Lee – Republican challenger

North Dakota – John Hoeven – Republican challenger. Wouldn’t it have been great if Kos had been able to convince the tea partiers to challenge him?

Likely Democrat

Delaware – Chris Coons vs. Christine O’Donnell. If Mike Castle decides to run here, I might revisit this. But for now, I’m assuming he doesn’t do a write in, and Coons wins it pretty big.

New York B – Kirstin Gillibrand v. Joe DioGuardi. It’s possible DioGuardi could pick up some momentum in the next month. Gillibrand is still somewhat unknown downstate, but even thought this might get closer I think DioGuardi is too weak of a candidate

Lean Democrat

California – Barbara Boxer vs. Carly Fiorna. Boxer has never been the most popular politician, but Obama is not as unpopular in California as elsewhere and Fiorna is a very beatable opponent. This might be close, but Boxer will pull it out.

Washington – Patty Murray vs. Dino Rossi. I’ve been pleasantly surprised at the way this race is going. I was very worried about Murray a month ago. Not so much now.

Connecticut – Richard Blumenthal vs. Linda McMahon. I worry about this one, but in the end, I just don’t see how McMahon overcomes the anchor that is pro-wrestling in mostly white collar Connecticut. Blumenthal needs to step up his game though. This needs to change to likely Republican.

Nevada – Harry Reid vs. Sharon Angle. The polls have been close, and some might argue Angle has a bit of momentum, but I think Reid pulls it out because minorities in Nevada are consistently underpolled, and the Democratic machine is strong.

West Virginia – Joe Manchin vs. John Raese. I’m actually more worried about this one than any of my other Lean Democrats. This is definitely 1996 Nebraska Senate Race (popular incumbent governor is defeated by underdog Republican) vs. 2010 PA-12 (Democrat wins against business guy in potentially hostile non-urban environment). I think Raese is a weaker candidate than Chuck Hagel in 1996, so I’m still giving this to Manchin. But it’s gonna be close.

Pennsylvania – Joe Sestak vs. Pat Toomey. I know, I know. The polls don’t show this right now. But Sestak should not be underestimated as a campaigner, and I still think once he gets on television he will close just like he did against Specter. Also, I still see Toomey as too conservative for Pennsylvania. I hope so, anyway.

Likely Republican

Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln vs. John Boozeman. I think this one will be closer than anyone predicts. Lincoln has a lot of money, and Boozeman seems to me to be a weak candidate. But I think it’s too large of gap at this point for Blanche to overcome, especially without any union support.

Indiana – Dan Coates vs. Brad Ellsworth I had high hopes for this one a couple of months ago, but Ellsworth isn’t getting the job done, and Coates is proving to be a pretty good fundraiser, and non-crazy. I just don’t see Ellsworth making up lost ground at this point.

North Carolina – Richard Burr vs. Elaine Marshall. Burr was/is definitely vulnerable. But Marshall is the wrong candidate running in the wrong year.

Florida – Charlie Crist vs. Kendrick Meek vs. Marco Rubio. Some people may see this as premature, but unless something happens to change the dynamic (say, Meek endorsing Crist or vice versa), I think Rubio wins this pretty easily.

Louisiana – David Vitter v. Charlie Melancon. For the forseeable future, there is going to be no right year for a Democrat to run for Senate in the Louisiana. Melancon is also hurt by the gulf oil spill fading as an issue.

Ohio – Lee Fisher vs. Rob Portman. Like Florida, some people may say this is premature, but Fisher is fading fast, with no money to make up lost ground. I expect the DSCC to abandon this race just as the Republicans abandoned Mike DeWine in 2006.

Lean Republican

Kentucky – Rand Paul vs. Jack Conaway. I do think this is still a race, but Paul is still a couple of gaffes away from losing. The debate next week will be crucial.

Alaska – Joe Miller vs. Lisa Murkowski vs. Scott McAdams. I go back and forth on whether this is lean or likely Republican, but I do think Murkowski’s write in campaign will hurt Miller more than McAdams (as opposed to if she were on the ballot). Still, I don’t see this as a genuine tossup yet.

New Hampshire – Kelly Ayotte vs. Paul Hodes. I’ve always thought Hodes is a weak campaigner, and Ayotte has got a united Republican party on her side. New Hampshire is moving rapidly to blue, but I’m not sure it’s rapidly enough to save Hodes, although Palin’s endoresement of Ayotte will hurt her from this point forward.

Missouri – Robin Carnahan vs. Roy Blunt. Actually, this should be Robin Carnahan vs. the national environment, because in the 2006 or 2008 she would have probably beat Blunt easily. Not this year, though, and Obama is very unpopular in Missouri. This is tossup, but favors the Republican at this point.

Colorado – Ken Buck v. Michael Bennett I think Buck is a stronger candidate than people give him credit for, stronger than Angle and Paul certainly. This is one race that I expect to trend against the Democrats as time goes on, although Bennett will be helped by the clusterf*ck for the Republicans in the governors race.

Illinois – Mark Kirk vs. Alexi Giannoulias This one may surpise some people, and it’s the pursest tossup of any race I have on my list. What makes me think Kirk wins: there’s a lot of unhappiness with Democrats in Illinois right now, Kirk is moderate, Kirk gets the benefit of Brady’s downstate pull and Pat Quinn is turning out to be a disaster of a candidate. Kirk is so far the luckiest Republican of this cycle – if the Illinois primary had been a couple of months later, he would have been tea-partied out of existence.

Wisconin – Russ Feingold vs. Ron Johnson This one breaks my heart, because I love Russ Feingold as a Senator. But I don’t think anyone can doubt he’s behind at this point, though by how much is debatable. He needs to change the momentum here, fast.  

Today marks the conclusion of a 3-part series examining the state of the Kansas state House of Representatives. In previous diaries, I ran through KS House seats 1-40 (start there if you’re just joining us) as well as KS House seats 41-80. In this edition, I’ll examine seats 81-125, which include most of the seats in rural Western Kansas, as well as some in the Wichita area.

KANSAS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES – 125 seats

Current composition: 76 Republicans, 49 Democrats (or about 61%-39%)

HOW TO READ THE COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS:

KS-HR-# <—this is the district’s number

43.5R/27D/28.6U   <—this is the voter affiliation breakdown, R is Republican, D is for Democrat, and U is unaffiliated voters. Statewide, as of June 2010, the state’s registration numbers were 43.5% Republican, 27.2% Democrat, and 28.6% Unaffiliated.  Also, unless the tenth of a percent is a 4, 5 or 6, I rounded to the nearest full percentage point.

District Map    <—-this is the official map from this district from: KSLegislature.org the official state gov’t site.

MAIN SOURCES:

Candidate Guide + District PVIs from Capitol Strategies LLC [pdf]

Guide to every KS House seat’s past voting from OurCampaigns.com

Candidate Fundraising from Ethics.ks.gov

COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS:

KS-HR-81: 47R/22D/30.6U : District Map : (R) Peter DeGraaf was appointed to the seat in early 2008, and won it outright in 2008 after a competitive primary with 55% in the general election. So it’s a seat that can be competitive. Unfortunately, the best Dems could come up with this cycle was 21-year-old Wichita State student Zach Ketteman. Still, Ketteman is at least giving it a go, campaigning hard and scoring several endorsements, and getting fined by the state Ethics Commission for forgetting to include “Paid For By…” on campaign materials (along with several others, btw). Whoops. Well, at least we know he’s sending out campaign materials. Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-82: 48.6R/21.4D/29.4U  : District Map : (R) Open (retirement of Don Myers) – KS Dem Party Exec. Board member & Dem national committeeman Lee Kinch, an attorney, is running, which is about as solid a recruit as you could land in this suburban Wichita district centered on Derby. Though it is a fairly Republican district, the Republican primary winner faced a three-way primary. Unfortunately for Democrats, the best-funded, most active and most-endorsed Republican candidate, Jim Howell, won. If Howell can retain most of the Republican base, he’ll win. Still, with Goyle leading local Dems, don’t count Kinch out completely. Kinch’s bio. Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-83: 53R/25.5D/21U : District Map :  (R) In office since 1985, Jo Ann Pottorff was the only Wichita Republican to vote for the state’s temporary sales tax increase, which garnered her her first primary challenge in recent memory. She barely defeated college grad Kyle Amos 53-47, which could mean trouble: there’s a Libertarian on the ballot, which could draw conservative votes from Pottorff.  Her general election opponent is Sean Amore, a 34-year-old with a wife and young daughter, who is a Green Biz Wichita Executive Committee member, part of the United Way’s Young Leaders Association, and one of the “40 Under 40” according to the Wichita Business Journal.  Still, the moderate Pottorff hasn’t won a general election with less than two-thirds of the vote in this heavily Republican district many, many cycles, so Amore faces a tough task. Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-87: 38.2R/31.5D/29.8U : District Map (D) Open (Raj Goyle) – Boeing Military Aviation Supervisor Om Chauhan, the Democrat, faces off against “self-proclaimed Todd Tiahrt conservative” Joseph Scapa in this rapidly blueing district. And fortunately for Chauhan, the locals are already used to a state Rep. with a kinda-funny furriner name thanks to Goyle. Chauhan’s actively campaigning and has a fairly snazzy website.  Rating: Lean Democrat

Nice lady-mullet, Brenda. Flowbie or John Deere?

KS-HR-91: 42R/31D/26.4U : District Map : (R) Brenda Landwehr – Health Committee Chair Landwehr has held this gradually-blueing seat since 1994, but she’ll face a stiff challenge from West Point grad Dan Manning, who has a fairly nice-looking website (http://manningforkansas.com/) and appears to be campaigning pretty hard. The seat leans Republican only slightly, and the hard-right Landwehr had somewhat close calls in 2002 (54.5%) and 2006 (52.9%) though she nabbed 61.6% in 2008 and 64% in 2004. In other words, non-presidential-year elections are her toughies, and with a solid opponent, this might be the off-year she finally goes down. Rating: Lean Republican UPDATE: I missed a little factoid in Manning’s bio: he’s trying to become the state’s first openly-gay legislator. Sweetheart that she is, this led Landwehr to stir up homophobia among local Republicans, which got Manning a death threat taped to the door of his home. That’s pretty unprecedented in KS politics, especially for just one of 125 seats in the lower house of the legislature. It will also make a lot of local moderates think twice about voting for Landwehr, and if Manning can use his newfound notoriety to attract donations and run a strong campaign, he stands a darn good shot at winning. Ahem, looking at you, JoeMyGod. Come on Joe, he’s basically a ready-made bear icon and if you ask your readers for donations, you should know their money can go really far in Kansas. Full disclosure: I’ve now contributed $75 and counting to Manning’s campaign, the only KS candidate I’ve given to this cycle (well, him and Sean Tevis). Won’t you join me? Otherwise, I’m unaffiliated with his campaign…or any of these campaigns.

KS-HR-96: 34.5R/31D/33.7U : District Map : (R) Phil Hermanson – Democrat Brandon Whipple has raised about $20k, enough for a state rep. race, certainly. His opponent, Republican Phil Hermanson, is a first-termer who got 50.2% of the vote to defeat freshman Democrat Terry McLachlan, who’d won his seat with just 50.3% of the vote in 2006. Thankfully for Dems, Hermanson is a notoriously lazy campaigner, while Whipple’s a young, go-getting teacher and a Wichita State grad, his website is appropriately good (www.whippleforkansas.com)  and he definitely seems to be campaigning hard. The picture of him & Sebelius on his website doesn’t hurt, either. Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-97: 33.5R/32D/34U :  District Map  : (R–>D) Dale Swenson – First elected in 1994, Dale Swenson made some headlines when he switched parties shortly after being re-elected as a Republican in 2008. Though his district has become quite blue, the moderate Swenson won handily in his previous races (61.4% in ’08 and 64.5% in ’06) so it’s not terribly clear to me why he switched…unless he wants to run for the state Senate (which he did, in a Republican special election in 2003, but lost) as a Democrat. If he runs for the Senate, he might be up against Dick Kelsey (who may retire, he dropped out of the KS-04 race this year, despite being the favorite) in Senate District 26. But first, Swenson has to win in 2010 as a Democrat. In the general election, he’ll face retired consultant and “perennial candidate”/Some Dude Leslie Osterman, who, interestingly, actually ran for the seat in 2000–against Swenson–as a Democrat…and lost badly (66-34). Frankly, based on this Wichita Independent Business Association survey, Osterman doesn’t seem too bright. Rating: Likely Democrat

KS-HR-101: 46R/24.4D/29U : District Map : (R) Joe Seiwert – Freshman Seiwert knocked off incumbent Democrat Mark Treaster 51-49 in 2008, while Treaster had defeated the previous Republican incumbent in ’04 with a similar percentage. Seiwert’s 2010 opponent, Democrat Curtis “Curt” Miller, is the mayor of Pretty Prairie. Unfortunately, Pretty Prairie, a suburb/exurb of Hutchinson, has well under 1000 people. Still, that’s a good profile for this exurban-Hutchinson Reno County district. Libertarian Thad Bartley is also running, which could draw votes from Seiwert.  Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-105: 48R/23D/28.5U : District Map : (R/Open) Gene Suellentrop – The owner of a Gambino’s Pizza is up against dietician Jane Byrnes, who did respectably well in 2006 (not 2008, as it says on the Capitol Strategies pdf), winning 40% of the vote against previous incumbent Jason Watkins, who left the seat in 2009, leading to Suellentrop’s appointment. Still, Suellentrop’s never faced voters and the suburban/exurban parts of Wichita (like this district) can be swingy. Byrnes, a Catholic grandmother of six, also scores well for civic involvement, having launched the Westlink Neighborhood Association and served on various local committees. Plus, she has the best-named website of any candidate: http://campaignjane.com/   Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-108:  51.6R/21.5D/26U : District Map : (D/Open) Don Svaty – Don was appointed to this seat by local Democrats after his son, Josh Svaty, resigned midway through his fourth term to become KS Secretary of Agriculture (a pretty important post in KS, as you might imagine). Don, like his son, has hewed to a pretty Blue Dog-ish line, taking very pro-life and pro-gun lines. Josh held the seat extremely well, defeating an incumbent in 2002 with 66%, getting 60% in 2004, unchallenged in ’06, and taking 63.2% in 2008. Can his Pops do the same? Uh…maybe. He’s up against a very strong candidate in Steven Johnson, a local boy who was Saline South High valedictorian (1984), Student Body President at Kansas State (1988), got an MBA from the Univ. of Chicago, and served on the investment committee of K-State & the 4-H and farms locally in addition to serving as a Sr. VP for a distribution company. Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-112: 53.6R/20.4D/25.6U : District Map : (R) William Wolf is running for his third term, after winning his first and second with 50.3% and 53% of the vote, respectively. He faces a competitive opponent in the form of the comely young Christina Stein, a social worker, substitute teacher, and contributor to the Kansas Free Press. While she’s from Michigan, she points out that she’s from a much smaller town than the one she wants to represent (Great Bend is the main city in the district). Even better, there’s a picture of her as a teenager with a dead deer she shot on her FAQ page.   Her slogan: Christina Stein, Gun-Totin’ Democrat. Hot.  Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-116: 58R/20.5D/21U : District Map  : (D) Patrick “Pat” Maloney – Maloney was appointed to succeed Dennis McKinney upon his becoming state treasurer and has yet to face voters. The only credible comparison for this district is McKinney’s 2002 victory, wherein he beat Republican M.T. Liggett 76-24. Other than that, McKinney went uncontested in ’04, ’06 and ’08. Patrick Maloney is not so lucky–he’ll face Kyle Hoffman, a farmer and owner of Central Fuel & Service in Coldwater, KS. Hoffman is also the elected chair and 13-year member of the Comanche County Conservation District. McKinney, btw, will be on the ballot in 2010–running for a full term as State Treasurer, which could help Maloney, especially as they have separate bases–McKinney in Greensburg (Kiowa Co.) and Maloney in Kingman (Kingman Co.) while Hoffman, presumably, would do well in Comanche, with Barber in the middle as the swinger. Rating: Tossup  

KS-HR-119: 40R/26D/33U : District Map : (R) Pat George – There’s a slight chance that challenger Rebecca Escalante will improve enough upon her previous performance that it won’t be an embarrassing 76-24 loss. This district has turned rapidly red–Democrat Ethel Peterson won it in 2002 with 55%, though George defeated her replacement by a whopping 68-32. I mostly just like Escalante’s name, though local voters (turned xenophobic by an influx of Latinos) probably don’t. Rating: Safe Republican

KS-HR-120: 66R/16D/17U :  District Map : (R/Open) It would be insane if Democrat Robert Strevey actually won, after having run every year since 2002 against Republican John Faber (who was first elected in 1996). Of course, this year, retired principal Strevey won’t be facing Faber, he’ll face newcomer Ward Cassidy, a retired teacher from St. Francis who won the primary 56-44. If Strevey wins, he is the new Walt Minnick. However, against a relative unknown like Cassidy, Strevey could have a chance, since folks will obviously recognize his name on the ballot more than Cassidy’s. Rating: Likely Republican

2010 OVERALL RACE RATINGS:

Uncontested Democrats: 05, 08, 32, 33, 34, 37, 44, 46, 58, 63, 78, 89, 102, 103, 111 (total: 15)

Safe Dem:  01, 02, 03, 31, 35, 36, 53, 55, 56, 57, 66, 84, 86, 88, 92, 95, 98 (total: 17)

Likely Dem:  23, 24, 40, 62, 80, 97 (total: 6)

Lean Dem: 04, 10, 18, 22, 41, 65, 67, 87 (total: 8)

Projected (meaning Lean D and above) Democrat: 46

Tossups: 16, 17, 19, 39, 45, 69, 72, 96, 101, 108, 116 (total: 11)

Uncontested Republicans: 06, 07, 11, 26, 27, 30, 48, 50, 61, 73, 77, 79, 85, 90, 93, 99, 100, 106, 107, 113, 114, 115, 117, 123, 125  (total: 25)

Intraparty only, Republicans: 09, 13, 51, 64, 68, 70, 94, 109, 110, 118, 121, 122, 124 (total: 13)

Safe Republican:  12, 21, 74, 76, 104, 119 (total: 6)

Likely Rep: 15, 28, 29, 42, 47, 52, 59, 60, 71, 81, 83, 120  (total: 12)

Lean Rep: 14, 20, 25, 38, 43, 49, 54. 75, 82, 91, 105, 112  (total: 12)

Projected Republican: 68

Arealmlc’s final prediction: Downballot Democrats will perform surprisingly well since it’s an off-year, taking a lot of the Tossups and a few Lean Republican seats [looking at you, Landwehr]. With only a handful of potential losses (I’d peg Svaty, Palmer & Hawk as most likely D losses, if there are any).  Combine that with a plethora of offensive opportunities, and Democrats are poised to make modest, but significant gains.

2009-2010 Legislature: 76 Republicans, 49 Democrats (61%-39%)

2011-2012 Legislature: 69 Republicans, 56 Democrats (55%-45%) (arealmlc’s official projection)

Even more importantly, nearly all of the potential pickups will come against conservative Republicans, not moderates.

BEST & WORST OF THE KANSAS HOUSE RACES, 2010:

Best Names:  Shirley Palmer (5th), Keith Mace (49th), Om Chauhan (87th)

Most Kansas-y Named Race:  John Grange (R) Vs. Glenda Reynolds (D) (75th)

Best Mustache: Dale Swenson (97th)

Hottest Female Candidates: Christina Stein (112th) & Shana Althouse (25th)

Hottest Male Candidates: Gerrett Morris (69th)  & Jim Faris (47th)

KS Political Hotties Stein, Morris, Faris & Althouse:



Best Websites: Nancy Bauder (41st – www.nancybauder.com), Brandon Whipple (96th – www.whippleforkansas.com) & Shana Althouse (25th – www.shanaalthouse.com)

If I could pick one candidate to automatically lose: [tie] homophobia-spreader Brenda Landwehr (91st) & Connie O’Brien (42nd) the worst state legislator in Kansas.

If I could pick one candidate to automatically win: [tie] Dan Manning (91st) & Christina Stein (112th)

A GUIDE TO CANDIDATES VIA ENDORSEMENTS:

For a complete list of PACs and their relative power in the state, Kansas Watchdog is a good website with a great resource for Kansas PACs ranked by their relative strength.

Kansas Chamber of Commerce – The Kansas Chamber’s gone teabagger. Not only are their endorsements all Republicans (I think, though 1 or 2 Dems may have slipped in there) but they often waded into primaries to boost conservatives over moderates. Their PAC is ranked as 7th most powerful in the state, but this cycle they had few primary victories to show for it–of the 9 Republican sales-tax-increasing incumbents facing KS Chamber-supported opponents, only one lost: Jill Quigley. The other 8, including Spalding, Pottorff, Roth, and Hill, survived an onslaught of mailers from the KS Chamber and from Americans for Prosperity, the Koch Industries-funded group with radical libertarian leanings. Meanwhile, three Republicans sometimes perceived as moderate (including Salina’s Deena Horst and former Speaker Melvin Neufeld) , but who voted against the tax, lost their primaries. Kansas Chamber endorsements.

Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce + Life Sciences Fund of Greater KC Chamber – The Greater KC Chamber is much more centrist than its KS-only counterpart. If you support stem cell research, you’ll probably get the endorsement of (and money from) at least the Life Sciences Fund, though both organizations are seemingly big fans of smart science education (ie–anti-creationist). Both are among the state’s 20 most powerful PACs (Life Sciences ranked 6th, Greater KC Chamber 18th). Naturally, being pro-business is the main criteria.

Kansans For Life PAC – The biggest and most powerful anti-abortion group in the state is going to be weak this cycle, quite frankly. They’ve got just 5k in the bank as of July 2010, and rank only 19th among state PACs. If you’re adamantly against abortion, you’ll likely gain the support of this group, which, as you might expect, is much stronger in Republican primary battles than general election ones. They have a few local branches which can have some effect on local races: their Greater Kansas City branch ranks 47th statewide. Kansas for Life PAC site. Get their Primary Endorsements on the Topeka Examiner.

KS-NOW – The most direct opposition to Kansans for Life is probably the local chapter of National Organization for Women: if you’re pro-choice, you can probably score their endorsement. For 2010, they endorsed 45 Democrats and 11 Republicans in contested seats. They probably would’ve endorsed more, but apparently, you actually have to want their endorsement to get it. In some swing seats, it’s a positive, in others it’s a negative. Kansas Free Press lists their endorsements.

Mainstream Coalition (MAINstream PAC) – This is an interesting, very Kansas-y organization. The Mainstream Coalition emerged in the mid-1990s, growing out of a frustration of (mostly) Johnson County moderate Republicans pissed that the moderate Republican representatives kept getting primaried–and losing–and then dealing wacky right-wingers in government embarrassing everyone. While active in primaries, they also get involved in general elections to knock out conservatives with Democrats if they can’t win the primary: Dennis Moore was one of their early endorsees and remained in their good graces throughout his career. Their endorsees are considered social moderates if nothing else (meaning: pro-choice, anti-creationist, pro-gay-ish, pro-sex ed, pro-stem cell research) and notably include both Republicans and Democrats. They now have a PAC that gives directly to candidates (ranked 51st of 175 statewide), but their imprimateur carries significant weight among Johnson County moderates and their stated focus on downballot races makes them especially effective when they endorse state rep candidates. Mainstream Coalition Endorsements  

Kansas NEA – The big daddy of pro-education groups in the state, the NEA gives big to Democrats and Republicans, favoring those who are big on education funding. Usually, their endorsement comes with cash as their PAC is among the state’s best-funded. The Kansas Watchdog ranks it as the most powerful PAC in the state. Some related organizations are the KASB (KS Assoc. of School Boards) & USA (United School Administrators) which also have a PAC. KNEA endorsements.

[cross-posted at DLCC.org – SSP has been paying a lot of attention to the Ohio House and Ohio redistricting, so we hope the latest campaign news is of interest to folks here.]

Part 1 of 2:

A relative handful of Ohio House contests offer Democrats an opportunity to unpack one of the worst GOP gerrymanders in the country, and they offer Republicans a chance to fine-tune their handiwork and wipe away the Democratic gains since 2006.

Last week was a busy one in the campaign to defend the Democrats' narrow majority, underscoring the two-month sprint that's all that remains between now and Election Day.

 Cross posted on http://frogandturtle.blogspot…. which you should visit for more election analysis and information on demographics.

My previous Senate Rankings can be found here: http://frogandturtle.blogspot….

Another August come and gone with Labor Day leaving too. This means that summer is officially over and if you live in the East Coast, you will agree. Everyone knows August as the month where people go on vacation and/or want to install air conditioners. August also has another name on it that not many people mention: the bad month for Democrats and/or Obama. In August of 2004, Kerry was down in the polls due to the swift boat ads. In August of 2006, the generic ballot was tied. In August of 2007, Hillary was crushing Obama. In August of 2008, Palin was nominated and tied the race (until she crashed of course but that comes later.) In August of 2009, people came to town hall meetings to parrot talking points by Republicans that denounced the healthcare bill and spread lies about death panels. Now August of 2010 is a month where Obama’s poll numbers are low because the economy was supposed to recover in a day. Rome was built in a day too. Also, this August showed bad polling numbers for many of the Senate candidates.

Yes, I am finally getting to the subject of this post: Senate races. August is always a bad month people so we should not be too worried about losing the Senate because it always gets a little better. Still, my Senate rankings are going in the Republicans’ favor because my rankings show the way the races stand now. Many races though will start seeing action soon but were quiet in August. Alaska is an exception where Lisa Murkowski (R) was primaried out by Joe Miller (R), a teabagger who makes the race closer. It is not close enough to put in the rankings though. Other races that are shifting are Florida Senate with Kendrick Meek (D) taking votes from Charlie Crist (I) who may caucus with the Democrats if he wins. Other races with movement include Pennsylvania and Ohio. I am not keeping Nevada on the list although some pundits suggested Republicans will vote for extremist Sharron Angle (R) holding their nose. As I see Republicans like Nevada’s first lady Dawn Gibbons endorse Harry Reid (D), I just cannot put this race on the line. I have also removed Missouri from the list although Carnahan can make it closer once she reminds Missouri why 61% of the voters supported her in 2008. I am predicting a 6 seat pickup for the Republicans. Enough talk about the races though, here are the rankings with a description on each race:

1. North Dakota OPEN Bryon Dorgan (D)

North Dakota is known for electing personally popular politicians regardless of the party. Governor John Hoeven (R) is anything but an exception to this rule.

Ranking: Safe Republican

Previous Ranking: 1

2. Arkansas Blanche Lincoln (D)

One of the Democrats’ last holdouts in statewide offices was Arkansas. Lincoln won a primary against Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter (D) when most pundits thought he would win. She will definitely not have the same luck while running against Rep. John Boozemen (R).

Ranking: Likely Republican

Previous Ranking: 2

3. Indiana OPEN Evan Bayh (D)

Bayh jumped out of the race as Dan Coats (R) jumped into the race. Coats is known as a former incumbent, a lobbyist and this is supposed to be anti incumbent year, right? Actually, it is an anti Democratic incumbent year. The Democrats nominated sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) from Evansville in southern Indiana, a critical area for Democrats to win so they can win statewide. The campaign has not gotten into full mode. Although Ellsworth should narrow the margin a bit, it is the wrong year and he is not doing well enough in the urban areas.

Ranking: Likely Republican

Previous Ranking: 5

4. Delaware OPEN Ted Kaufman (D)

Rep. Michael Castle (R) is running against New Castle County Exec. Chris Coons (D) and due to Castle’s  popularity, it looked like an easy win for him. Now the race suddenly got more interesting. The Tea Party Express which kicked out Lisa Murkowski (R) in Alaska now is supporting Christine O’Donnell (R) in the primary against Castle. They are going to pour in their money. Most polls show Coons winning against O’Donnell so if she wins the primary, expect the race to fall down the list. If Castle wins, Coons is still in trouble.

Ranking: Lean Republican

Previous Ranking: 4

5. Pennsylvania OPEN Arlen Specter (D)

First, the Senate race that kept changing was Florida. Although Florida does keep shifting, so does Pennsylvania. First, Specter switched parties and became a Democrat. Then congressman Joe Sestak (D) from the Philadelphia suburbs challenged him. Sestak won by 8 points, shocking the Philadelphia establishment. Sestak won by using an ad blitz but now he is sinking the polls against Pat Toomey (R). Toomey primaried Specter in 2004, ran as a conservative and lost. Toomey is now running to the center and Sestak is doing…nothing. He plans to do an ad blitz really close to election day. I do not think it will work this time though because most voters will have made up their minds.

Ranking: Lean Republican

6. Colorado Michael Bennett (D)

Bennett (D) faced a challenge from the left and Bill Clinton in Andrew Romanoff (D) in the primary. Bennett survived, defying a late surge for Romanoff. Now Bennett faces Ken Buck (R). Although Buck is leading by a few points, he is a prone gaffe machine who rivals Sharron Angle. Buck said that the difference between Jane Norton (his primary opponent) and him was that he did not wear high heels. Also, Buck said he liked the education system of the 1950’s. He did not say which part of the country’s education system. Did he mean the South? Bennett has not spent much time defining Buck yet which Bennett needs to do if he wants to win.

Previous Ranking: 8

Status: Toss Up/Tilt Republican

7. Illinois OPEN Roland Burris (D)

This race is another one where the leader in the polls keeps switching. First, Mark Kirk (R) from the Chicago suburbs was winning against Alexi Giannoulis (D). Then Kirk lied about his military credentials…more than once. Giannoulis though has problems with his family’s bank. Therefore, both candidates are tied. Kirk is a moderate and it is a Republican year. Giannoulis though will get the support of the strong Democratic party in Chicago and Illinois’s Democratic lean. This is a race that should have a recount if there is one but I expect Giannoulis to win by 1-2 points.

Status: Pure Toss Up

Previous Ranking: Not on top 10

8. Florida OPEN George LeMieux (R)

This race used to be much higher up in the rankings. Now with Kendrick Meek’s (D) primary win, this race is shifting in Marco Rubio’s (R) favor. Charlie Crist (I) used to be leading in the polls but Meek received a post primary bounce. It also though could be a permanent boost. Whatever it was, Crist lost his lead in the polls and is now a few points behind Rubio. It may be a temporary bounce for Meek but even so, Crist is getting squeezed from both sides of the aisle. Expect this race to fall off the line if Crist does not get his act together.

Status: Toss Up/Tilt Republican

Previous Ranking: 4

9. Washington Patti Murray (D)

I had a diary on the county baselines of Washington recently where I mentioned how Washington State is the New Jersey of the west. Here, Republicans always think they finally have the candidate but the voters always side with the Democrat. In New Jersey though, that trend broke with Chris Christie (R) winning the Governorship last year. Now former moderate Dino Rossi (R) is vying for statewide office for the third time. Rossi first ran for Governor and lost after a long recount in 2004. He ran for Governor again in 2008 and lost by a not so recountable margin, 53%-47%. Washington State has an interesting primary system where all candidates regardless of party run and the top two vote getters advance to the general election. Murray got 46% in that election and since it was not a high turnout election for Democrats, this looks like a close race.

Status: Toss Up/Tilt Democratic

Previous Ranking: Not on Top 10

10. Kentucky OPEN Jim Bunning (R)

I was going to put a race like Wisconsin in for this spot but this morning, I saw a poll showing the two candidates Rand Paul (R) and Jack Conway (D) tied. Although Conway is not from the crucial coal counties in east Kentucky, he is a strong candidate from Louisville which Democrats rely on now to win in Kentucky. Paul is well known for outrageous comments like suggesting businesses should decide whether African Americans can come and that Kentucky has no drug problem. Although Paul is a poor candidate and Conway is a good one, the year and Kentucky’s Republican lean is probably too strong for Conway to beat.

Status: Toss Up/Tilt Republican

Previous Ranking: 10

The Heart of This Year’s Darkness: The Deep South

There are seven Southern House seats that are, in my opinion, absolutely gone: the two open Arkansas seats, the Louisana 3rd, Tennessee 6th, Florida 2nd, and the Virginia 2nd and 5th. I still think we have a ghost of a chance in the Tennessee 8th, but that one is likely toast too.

If its any consolation, I think that the Arkansas 2nd and Tennessee 8th are long term pains in the neck for the GOP. The bright spot in the Deep South is the Louisana 2nd, which we should get back, so that effectively cancels out our loss of the 3rd district, which disappears in redistricting anyways.

I’m actually optimistic when it comes to pretty much every Deep South incumbent except for Allan Boyd. If my memory serves me right, the last one of those to lose under non flukey circumstances was Max Burns in the Georgia 12th in ’04. So I have Bright, Childers, Barrow, Spratt, Edwards, Ciro Rodriguez, and Marshall hanging on.

In the upper South and border states, things are a bit better. I think the North Carolina delegation is in relatively good shape, and that we hold onto the Virginia 11th as well. Kentucky is fine. In Florida south of the I-4 corridor, Kosmas and Grayson are far from gone (pure tossups, though I like Grayson’s chances better), Klein’s challenger in the 22nd is insane, and we could actually come out of Florida in better shape, if the only loss is Boyd and Garcia picks up the 25th. The GOP has yet to nail down Florida 12 as well.  

The Other Pain Center: The Industrial Midwest

Our incumbents in Missouri are in pretty good shape; I’m firmly convinced that Ike Skelton is too much of a fixture to lose and Russ Carnahan’s seat is too Democratic. Roy Blunt isn’t exactly setting the world on fire either on the Senate side, which is a plus. In Illiois, we should break even; minus Halvorson but plus Seals; Foster is a likely winner as well. I can live with that. I think Brad Ellsworth’s seat is a likely loss, but Donnelly and Hill narrowly hold on. The success of the auto bailout saves Gary Peters in the 9th District, but Mark Schauer is in trouble in the 7th. In Ohio, Kilroy isn’t strong enough, and Driehaus’s district is too polarized this year for him to survive; he’s not going to get the AA turnout he needs there. Boccieri should be okay in the 16th.

The Mid Atlantic

In the Mid Atlantic region, there are two seats that are currently very far gone: Pennsylvania 11th and New York 29th. Neither of those should be a long term hold for the GOP (PA-11 is too Dem, NY-29 goes in redistricting). There are a large number of seats I’m very concerned about here: the New York 24th (though I feel better seeing some positive numbers for Arcuri there), John Adler in the New Jersey 2nd, the Maryland 1st, and the Pennsylvania 3rd, 7th, and 10th; though Carney’s opposition seems sub-par. I particularly feel very queasy about the open 7th in Pennsylvania. Altmire, Murphy, and Holden should be okay,. Against this, we will pick up the open seat in Delaware.

New England

In all of New England, I think our only problems lay in the New Hampshire seats; my best guess is that we hold the 1st, and lose the open 2nd District. There are some who think MA-10 is in play, but I have my doubts, and even if it is, guess who gets screwed over in redidtricting….

The Upper Midwest and Plains

Our incumbents in Minnesota and Wisconsin seem to be in relatively good shape; Kagan could lose, but I honestly think he’ll be okay, and Julie Lassa’s opposition doesn’t seem to be that strong. Sadly, Michele Bachmann isn’t going anywhere though. In the Dakotas, I think we’ve been seeing too much Rasmussen and too little of anything else. I’m more worried about Pomeroy than Herseth-Sandlin because of Hoeven at the top of the ticket, but I think those are both holds at the end of the day.

I think that Dennis Moore’s seat in suburban Kansas City is a likely loss; the only incumbent in the region I have any reservations about is Leonard Boswell in the Iowa 3rd; he was in trouble even in the wave year of ’06. Why he didn’t get out of dodge in ’08 is beyond me…..

The West

This is the region where we’ve gotten the most help from the GOP. The top of the ticket for the GOP in Colorado is a godsend, which will give Markey a fighting chance, which is all you can ask for in this year’s environment. The spillover effects from Sharon Angle likewise help Dina Titus in suburban Las Vegas, and Jan Brewer doens’t look so hot in Arizona which helps out Harry Mitchell.

I’m guessing that we lose the open Washington 3rd, along with the Colorado 4th. Mitchell has a strong enough brand name in Tempe that he narrowly holds the Arizona 5th, and Titus’s seat could go either way. Somehow, I think Walt Minnick holds on, as does Harry Teague. We are plus one in Hawaii.

So, here’s the Dem lost causes (15):

-Arkansas 1st

-Arkansas 2nd

-Florida 2nd

-Louisana 3rd

-Kansas 3rd

-Illinois 11th

-New Hampshire 2nd

-New York 29th

-Ohio 1st

-Ohio 15th

-Pennsylvania 11th

-Tennessee 6th

-Virginia 2nd

-Virginia 5th

-Washington 3rd

GOP Goners (5)

+Delaware AL

+Florida 25th

+Hawaii 2nd

+Illinois 10th

+Louisana 2nd

Dem “It’s Not Looking Good” Seats (11)

-Colorado 4th

-Florida 24th

-Indiana 8th

-New York 24th

-Maryland 1st

-Michigan 7th

-Nevada 3rd

-New Jersey 2nd

-Pennsylvania 3rd

-Pennsylvania 7th

-Tennessee 8th

Dem Watch List

-Arizona 5th

-Florida 8th

-Iowa 3rd

-Illinois 15th

-Indiana 2nd

-Indiana 9th

-Michigan 9th

-Missouri 4th

-New York 20th

-New York 23rd

-Ohio 16th

-Pennsylvania 10th

-Virginia 11th

GOP Watch List

+Arizona 3rd (nothing but a gut feeling here)

+Florida 12th

+Minnesota 6th

Overall Guess: ~R + 29 seats

As a note feel free to comment about any of these races, and I’ll give you my thoughts

In my last diary, I ran through KS House seats 1-40, so if you haven’t read that, I’d advise starting there. In this edition, I’ll examine seats 40-80, which include some in suburban Johnson County (heavily covered in the previous edition) as well as Topeka, Salina, and much of the eastern & central parts of the state, even reaching down to the Wichita exurbs.

KANSAS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES – 125 seats

Current composition: 76 Republicans, 49 Democrats (or about 61%-39%)

HOW TO READ THE COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS:

KS-HR-# <—this is the district’s number

43.5R/27D/28.6U   <—this is the voter affiliation breakdown, R is Republican, D is for Democrat, and U is unaffiliated voters. Statewide, as of June 2010, the state’s registration numbers were 43.5% Republican, 27.2% Democrat, and 28.6% Unaffiliated. Unless the tenth of a percent is a 4, 5 or 6, I rounded to the nearest full percentage point in most cases.

District Map    <—-this is the official map (pdf format) of this district from the Legislature’s website (opens in a new window). Maps from: KSLegislature.org.

MAIN SOURCES:

Candidate Guide + District PVIs from Capitol Strategies LLC [pdf]

Guide to every KS House seat’s past voting from OurCampaigns.com

Candidate Fundraising from Ethics.ks.gov

COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS:

KS-HR-41: 32R/34.5D/32.5U : District Map : (D/Open) – With the retirement of Democrat Marti Crow, this still-competitive, but increasingly blue, seat is now open. In 2008, Crow smacked down Republican Jana Taylor Goodman 59-41, who, having won the Republican primary convincingly, is back for another try at the seat in 2010. Crow and other local Democrats are backing Nancy Bauder, the Exec. Dir. of the Community Development Corp. of Leavenworth, and a small business owner. Gov. Parkinson held a fundraiser for Bauder, whose high-quality website makes Goodman’s look outlandishly amateurish. Her economic development credentials are also flawless, and make Goodman’s non-existent ones even more pronounced. Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-42: 41R/27D/31U :  District Map : (R) Connie O’Brien, a retired special education teacher, won her seat in 2008 with almost 60% of the vote against the underfunded Timothy Moran, but faces a challenge from James “Jim” Pittman, a military veteran, engineer, and Chairman of the Lansing Planning Commission. O’Brien, a mother of 11(!) and vice-chair of Leavenworth County Republicans, is a past President (1996) of Kansans for Life, the most powerful local anti-abortion group. As such, she’s aligned herself with the hardcore conservatives, both socially and fiscally. This could make her vulnerable to a strong challenge, though I’m unsure if Pittman can provide it (though he certainly has a good profile to do it). Rating: Likely Republican

On a personal note, having examined lots of local legislators’ websites, voting records, biographies, positions and electoral histories, I have concluded that Connie O’Brien is the single worst person in the entire Kansas Legislature. She is a hardcore, unthinking, dogmatic partisan who insults her fellow legislators (Democrats and Republicans alike) while distorting the work of the Legislature. While Connie’s Corner sounds like the type of place you might find knitting tips, with Connie O’Brien you’ll find intense partisan invective that you won’t find on nearly any other legislator’s website. And what the hell kind of grandmother votes against requiring people to wear seatbelts while voting to let them smoke in restaurants? She is a lying, egotistical, hypocritical bigot whose presence in the Legislature is a disgrace to the state, and especially to the people of Leavenworth County.

Beard Fight!

KS-HR-43: 44R/22D/33.4U :  District Map : (R) Mike Kiegerl (at right) was first elected to this new district upon its creation in 2002. He’s faced a declining share of the vote as the area urbanizes (well, suburbanizes) and grows more moderate, taking only 53% of the vote in 2008 (thanks to a Libertarian eating a huge 12% of the vote). This cycle, he faces Democrat Kevin King (at left), an analyst at Sprint, who looks a bit like Kiegerl, actually. The area remains quite Republican-friendly and Kiegerl has been a low-profile conservative, but King’s been running a pretty strong campaign, racking up endorsements and showing up at community events.  Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-45: 35.6R/32D/32U :  District Map : (R) Tom Sloan – While the moderate Sloan has managed to hold this blue-tinted district since 1995, winning 53-47 over an untested Democrat in 2008, his luck may be about to run out as he faces two-term former Lawrence school board member (and former President) Linda Robinson. She also happens to be a longtime community leader (Governor’s Education Council, Lawrence Chamber of Commerce, Rotary Club, etc) while not being terribly old (I’d guess late 50s?) She’s about as top-tier as they come for a race like this. Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-47: 46R/25D/28.5U : District Map : (R) Lee Tafanelli – First elected in 2000, Tafanelli faced a somewhat close call in 2002, winning 56%. In 2004 & 2008, he was unopposed. He served in Iraq in 2005-2006, but got back in time to defeat the youthful bluegrass musician/student Jim Faris in 2006 with 65% of the vote. He will face Faris, now an Oskaloosa city councilman (pop. 1165), local journalist and paraeducator, again in 2010. It should be a closer race, now that the warm glow of military service has dissipated more fully from Tafanelli and Faris has some local political credibility. Also, Faris plays the upright bass in his family’s mildly successful bluegrass band, which is kinda awesome. And he’s a newlywed and expecting a baby this month, actually. Awww…  Rating: Likely Republican  

KS-HR-49: 48R/21.5D/30U : District Map : (R) Scott Schwab – Aside from practicing his shiiteating grin, Schwab enjoys trying to throttle more representative democracy in its cradle. I first heard of incorrigible douchebag Schwab when he introduced legislation just after the 2008 cycle that became known as the “Sean Tevis Bill”. After Sean Tevis raised $108k from small donors in 2008, Schwab introduced a bill requiring donations under $50 have the same disclosure requirements as big donations–but only if the candidate got a lot of them. Tevis fought back, and with the Internet’s help, the bill got put on ice and Schwab crawled back under a rock. So if you like Sean Tevis–and I know you do because you’re on the Internet right now–consider a donation to Schwab’s opponent, the awesomely-named Keith Mace. Mace was an IT guy and a telecoms expert for the General Services Administration, even serving as Acting Director for the GSA FAST Program (fast acquisition of tech, basically). Also, Mace has a fine, upstanding mustache. Plus, Schwab only got 59% against a non-entity-type opponent in 2008, and uber-conservative Ben Hodge only got 55% here in 2006 (Hodge replaced Schwab when Schwab ran for Dennis Moore’s seat in 2006–and couldn’t even get past the primary). Keith Mace’s website: http://keith4kansas.com/   Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-52:  48.6R/27D/24U :  District Map : (R) Lana Gordon – Kyle Kessler is a reasonably strong opponent (he’d been mentioned as a possible candidate in the post-Laura Kelly days in KS-02 to take on Lynn Jenkins). Unfortunately, this district is probably too red for him to win, especially over the popular and fairly moderate Lana Gordon, who has regularly won with 70%+ of the vote since elected in 2000.  Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-54: 45R/30D/24U :  District Map : (R) Joe Patton – As he has since winning election in 2006 with 51.5% of the vote (he nabbed 57% in ’08), Patton will face a race this year, this time thanks to 26-year-old teacher Scott Seel (who needs to fill in some of the pages of his otherwise-nice website, www.seelforkansas.com) Topeka voters are notorious for dumping useless Republican incumbents (see: Ryun, Jim) and Patton has not been terribly impressive. Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-59: 47R/24D/28U: District Map : (R) William Prescott – Freshman Prescott, a former Osage County Commissioner, is running for a second term after winning his first with 54.3% of the vote. In 2006, Democrat Jim Irey held the then-incumbent to just 51.2%, prompting his retirement. Irey lost the 2008 follow-up race to Prescott. This year, Prescott will face the weaker Blossom Barth, who appears to be doing little in the way of campaigning. Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-60: 38.6R/29D/32U :  District Map :  (R) Don Hill –  Elected in 2002, the relatively popular and moderate (pro-choice and led the pro-school Republicans) Hill wasn’t even challenged by Democrats in 2008, despite the increasingly blue tint of his district. This cycle, Hill has a serious opponent in Mike Dorcey, who lost the County Clerk race in 2008, but at least has electoral experience. Additionally, Dorcey is Community Relations Director of the Emporia Unified School District, giving him education bonafides in a cycle where that’s a hot topic. Overall, Hill’s moderate profile should keep him safe. Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-62: 53R/24D/22.6U : District Map : (D) Steve Lukert – A former Republican, Lukert lost a state Senate race in 2004, switched parties, and won his KS House seat in 2006 with 53% of the vote, and won re-election with 57%, despite the heavy Republican tilt of the district, making him Kansas’ answer to Chet Edwards. He will face Randy Garber, a Navy vet, heating/cooling specialist, and pastor of Trinity Church of the Brethren. Despite the partisan lean of the district, Garber seems a wee bit….hmm, how to say this in a nice Kansas way? Garber’s a few sandwiches short of a picnic. And that’s all I’m gonna say. Rating: Likely Democrat

KS-HR-65: 38R/33D/28U : District Map :  (R/Open) Incumbent Barbara “Barbie” Craft is retiring, leaving her Junction City seat open. Geary County Commissioner Larry Hicks is in the running for the Democrats, while Republicans had a Junction City Commissioner running, and passed him up for a guy named James Fawcett. With an open seat, a moderate, responsible already-elected official is exactly the sort of politician Kansans like to send to Topeka. Plus, popular Gov. Parkinson held a fundraiser for Hicks two weeks ago, so KS Dems are obviously pretty high on his chances. Even better, the Republican Craft showed up to that fundraiser and praised Hicks, although she’s technically supporting the Republican Fawcett. Link for that story. Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-67: 47R/24.6D/28U : District Map : (D) Tom Hawk is a former Manhattan (KS) school superintendent and is going for his fourth term, after winning his third with 56%. It’s a tough district but the adamantly pro-education Hawk fits in well here. His opponent is opthamologist Dr. Susan Mosier, who would be a strong candidate thanks to her civic involvement, if it weren’t for her right-wing flirtations. Still, Republicans are high on her chances and the district is pretty tough.  Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-69: 40R/25D/34U  : District Map :  (R/Open) The teabaggers strike! Elected in 1994, incumbent Deena Horst is a retired art teacher and frankly, she does seem like the nicest person ever, and I say that as someone disinclined to like Republicans–but she lost her primary to teabagging Salina City Commissioner Tom Arpke.  Meanwhile, Team Blue has an attractive young fellow named Gerrett Morris (at left), who, according to his campaign website is “serving as Chairman of both the Saline County Young Democrats and the Salina Tree Advisory Board.” Hear that, Arpke! Tree Advisory Board (this actually is important in central KS where there aren’t a lot of trees, btw). Who would you rather District 69 with now, eh Salina voters? Rating: Tossup

Horst Vs. Arpke – Salina Journal

KS-HR-71: 46.5R/23.5D/29U : District Map :  (R) Charles Roth survived a double teabagging in the Republican primary, and his moderate reputation will serve him well in the general election. In his two previous runs since his 2005 appointment, he scored 59.4% (2006) and 62.6% (2008). Still, Democrats have a credible opponent in Salina School Board member and Dean of Academic Affairs at Brown Mackie College Phil Black. Roth’s moderate reputation should be enough. Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-72: 45R/27D/28U :  District Map :  (R) Amy Schumacher faces off against incumbent Mark Rhoades, who won in 2008 by just 40 votes (after a similarly-skimpy win to defeat an incumbent Democrat in 2006), among the closest margins in the state. She’ll be helped by a new local campaign office and the strong Goyle campaign. Schumacher is definitely a-runnin’ and getting good local press: Source  Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-75: 46R/26D/27.4U : District Map :  (R) John Grange is in the hunt for a fourth term after winning his previous ones with around 54-55% of the vote. He’ll face Glenda Reynolds, whose husband is the vice-chair of the Butler County Democrats. She’s a solid candidate, with good community links, a solid website (http://www.reynolds4house.com/), a smart platform (ending tax breaks for non-KS companies, citing specific examples) and a lovely family. Grange is certainly favored, but Reynolds will make it a race, thanks to both institutional support from local Dems and being named after the good witch from The Wizard of Oz. Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-80: 47.5R/26.6D/25.5U :  District Map : (D) Vincent Wetta – Wetta, a retired railroad engineer, won in 2006 with 57% of the vote over incumbent Bill McCreary, went unchallenged in 2008, and faces the little-known Ellen Hathaway in 2010. Rating: Likely Democrat

Join me next week for the final installment of this series along with a final tally of seat projections and more insight into Kansas politics.

One of the things I like best about SSP is finding out about interesting downballot races that would otherwise escape my notice. So in that spirit, I’ve put together a massively comprehensive guide to the state races in Kansas in 2010.

Wherefore art thou, Sean Tevis, oh star of the 2008 KS State House races?

While Kansas isn’t exactly high on anyone’s radar for this election cycle, there are plenty of competitive races (KS-03 & KS-04, plus nearly all the statewide offices this year) throughout the state. Join me, won’t you, for a look at what’s happening downballot in the Kansas state Legislature?

But before we get into an analysis of the various districts in play this cycle, there are a few things to keep in mind…one is that this diary wasn’t meant to be published so soon. It was also way too long, so I was going to publish it in parts, but I hadn’t decided on what those parts were. Apparently, I’ll be doing it in thirds, since I just did seats 1-40, the competitive ones, at any rate.

In 2010, only Kansas House of Representatives seats are up, with the exception of …

STATE SENATE:

KS-StSen-07: Moderate state Sen. David Wysong resigned, leading Republicans to choose state Rep. Terrie Huntington as his replacement. With a fairly moderate profile, she must now fend off challenges from the left and right in the only Senate seat being contested this cycle (the full Senate, including this seat, is up in 2012). Republican David Harvey is coming at her from the right, but she survived (barely) with 54% in the primary. Democrat Wayne E. Hodges awaits in the general. Possessing a master’s in public administration, Hodges is an adjunct professor at Park University and a sometime writer/reporter. We could do a lot worse, although Hodges starts at a distinct disadvantage over a battle-tested moderate Republican. Hodges bio

In 2004, Wysong won with 56% of the vote, and was re-elected with 54% in 2008. So it’s not a totally unwinnable district. If Hodges can’t win it in 2010, I’m betting state Rep. Mike Slattery (KS-HR-24) might try to move up in 2012. Of course, even if Hodges wins, Republicans will still dominate the upper chamber 30-10. Rating: Likely Republican

With that little appetizer out of the way, let’s get to the main course of this feast of local political analysis…

Democratic nominee Stephene Moore wields the power of delicious baked goods in her quest for KS-03.

KANSAS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES – 125 seats

Current composition: 76 Republicans, 49 Democrats (or about 61%-39%)

HOW TO READ THE COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS:

KS-HR-# <—this is the district’s number

43.5R/27D/28.6U   <—this is the voter affiliation breakdown, R is Republican, D is for Democrat, and U is unaffiliated voters. Statewide, as of June 2010, the state’s registration numbers were 43.5% Republican, 27.2% Democrat, and 28.6% Unaffiliated.  Out of the roughly 1.7 million registered voters, there are also about 10,000 registered Libertarians, along with 1,169 members of the Reform Party. Also, unless the tenth of a percent is a 4, 5 or 6, I rounded to the nearest full percentage point in most cases.

District Map    <—-this is the official map from the Legislature’s website KSLegislature.org.

MAIN SOURCES:

Candidate Guide + District PVIs from Capitol Strategies LLC [pdf]

Guide to every KS House seat’s past voting from OurCampaigns.com

Candidate Fundraising from Ethics.ks.gov

Before we start, I’d meant to put something in about how off-year elections are actually the better ones for KS Democrats. A smaller electorate is generally a more moderate and better-informed one in Kansas. Sure, the teabaggers may be out in force, but that’s nothing new in Kansas. And Democrats, as you’ll see, have a lot of competitive candidates up and down the ballot, not only Stephene Moore & Raj Goyle for Congress, not only the best statewide slate we’ve had in a long while (Holland, Kultala, Six, McKinney & Biggs), but even in many state legislative races, Democrats are now fielding pretty solid candidates who can compete and possibly win. So below, find the first chunk of contested districts, all the ones I’ve ranked as competitive that number between 1 & 40.

Among these, there are some that are either totally safe (thanks to PVI heavily favoring one party) or uncontested completely. In districts 1-40, those seats are:

Uncontested Democrats: 05, 08, 32, 33, 34, 37

Safe Dem:  01, 02, 03, 31, 35, 36

Uncontested or intraparty-only Republicans: 06, 07, 09, 11, 13 26, 27, 30

Safe Republican:  12, 21

Geographically, seats 1-40 are centered on the eastern edge of the state, hence the seemingly high quantity of competitive seats. (generally speaking, KS gets more conservative as you go West). Most of the competitive ones below are in suburban Johnson County, which has been going from rosy red to quite purple rather quickly. The exceptions in competitive seats in 1-40 are the rural, Fort Scott-based 4th, the 10th, which takes in the suburban/exurban/rural areas south of Lawrence, and the Fort Leavenworth-based 40th. The two Fort districts border Missouri, and Lawrence is just one county over from the state line (via Johnson or Wyandotte, aka-the Dot) from the state line.  

COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS:

KS-HR-04: 46R/27.4D/26U : District Map : (D) Shirley Palmer (good name, good pic at left) defeated incumbent Lynne Oharah (a man, surprisingly) in 2006 in this Fort Scott-centric district with 51.3% of the vote and won again in 2008 with 53% in a rematch. This year, she’ll face a new opponent in Caryn Tyson, whose father-in-law was a local state Senator and a woman with deep local ties. Tyson’s website, at least, is a careful balance–conservative but not too conservative. She’ll be a tough opponent, but Palmer’s been a solid representative, has excellent education credentials and her local ties are just as strong.  Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-10: 37R/29D/33U : District Map : (D) Tony Brown –  Brown will face off against Terri Lois Gregory, who’s coming off a strong primary victory. Frankly, Gregory is a rather creepy lady staffer for state Rep. Mike Kiegerl (KS-HR-43) and a fairly hardcore conservative. Brown was elected in 2008 with just 49% of the vote (a Libertarian took 5% and the Republican got 45%). Interestingly, this is Dem gubernatorial nominee Tom Holland’s old legislative district, which I would expect to yield a big enough boost for Brown that he’ll pass the 50% mark this time, in addition to the sophomore swing and going up against a hardcore right-winger.  Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-14: 43R/25D/31U : District Map : (R) Incumbent Lance Kinzer faces off against Elliott Lahn, a city planner for nearby Merriam. Kinzer’s gotten around 60% in his previous races, but Lahn’s got a good website, raised some money, and has snagged a few endorsements. Kinzer doesn’t have quite the conservative stink of other members of the JoCo delegation, but he also hasn’t faced very many competitive opponents. Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-15: 43R/24D/32U : District Map  : (R) Arlen Siegfreid – Archconservative Siegfreid, now Speaker Pro Tem (2nd in command of KS House Republicans), has essentially become too conservative for this district, which was once staunchly conservative. In 2002, Siegfried won the newly-formed seat with 60% of the vote, but it has blued rapidly, with Siegfried’s vote share declining steadily to a narrow 52-48% victory over Sean Tevis in 2008 (McCain got 60% here). If Sean Tevis were running here again, I’d rate it a Tossup, but I’m doubting the website-less and rather invisible Wright will do as well as Tevis. Look for Siegfried to use his influence to draw himself a redder seat after redistricting, or perhaps one in the state Senate. Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-16: 46R/25D/28U : District Map  : (D) Gene Rardin – Elected in 2006 by a hair after the moderate Republican incumbent went down in the primary, Rardin has survived two very close calls with less than 51% of the vote. This cycle, Rardin again faces a very conservative opponent in teabagger Amanda Grosserode, which should allow him to squeak to another term, despite representing one of the most heavily Republican districts in the county.  Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-17: 46.5R/24D/28.5U : District Map  : (Open/R) Jill Quigley – The moderate Quigley faced a primary against teabagger Kelly Meigs as she tried to win her second full term after being appointed in 2007, but Meigs won 53-47 amid a decent turnout (for a primary). A moderate Republican can easily hold this seat–Quigley nabbed about 62% in her first try against modest opposition–but an anti-school teabagger would be considered a prime target. Waiting to swoop in and pick up the seat is Democrat Bryan Cox….now here’s where it gets interesting. Conservative blogs KansasProgress.com (intentional irony alert!) and KawandBorder.net are reporting that Cox is considering stepping aside and letting Quigley have his place on the ballot. She’d switch parties, of course, and run as a Democrat. Also, the $16k left in her campaign account would become useable again, an upgrade on Cox’s $200 haul. Why would Cox step aside? Well, he might if he’s the Bryan Cox that’s a high-level Democratic Party operative who’s now running Lisa Johnston’s Senate campaign and was recently (still?) the Riley County Field Coordinator. Once Cox bails, the 8 local precinct committee(wo)men choose a replacement–perhaps now-Democrat Jill Quigley? Stay tuned folks, because if Quigley switches sides, this will instantly become one of the hottest races around and a great pickup opportunity.

Rating: Tossup, for the sheer insanity of it all…. it’s Lean D with Quigley as a D, Lean or Likely Republican if it’s Meigs Vs. Cox

KS-HR-18: 44.6R/27D/27.8U : District Map : (D) Cindy Neighbor – Interesting career. First elected in 2002 to this seat as a moderate Republican, she lost the Republican primary in 2004, then returned to win the seat as a Democrat in 2006 with less than 50% of the vote, and got re-elected in 2008 with 52.5% of the vote against Republican John Rubin, an Army JAG officer who is back again in 2010. Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-19: 43.6R/25.3D/30.5U : District Map : (D) Dolores Furtado – A former Johnson County Commissioner, she won this seat in 2008 with 51% of the vote, and faces a strong challenge from Jim Denning, the CEO of Discover Vision Centers, who won his primary with a convincing 77%. But Furtado’s a tough old bird and she’s not going down without a fight. Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-20: 49R/24D/27U : District Map : (Open/R/Kevin Yoder) – The district where I was raised for 15 years. A swingier-than-it-looks surburban Overland Park seat whose Republicans are heavily moderate, being vacated by former moderate Kevin Yoder. Yoder protege Rob Bruchman won a stunning 70% victory in the primary against Stephanie Sawyer Clayton, who, despite Yoder’s supposed moderate reputation, ran to Bruchman’s left, favoring opening up liquor sales, keeping abortion legal, and not hating immigrants. With Bruchman squarely in the conservative camp, Dems do have a chance, especially because the candidate for the Ds is Rob McKnight, apparently (I couldn’t confirm this) a former GOP consultant turned Democrat and longtime local resident. He’s been a good fundraiser (including some notable local moderate Republican names) and scoring good endorsements, as well. McKnight is actively campaigning and has a website that, smartly, appeals to a sense of neighborliness against the carpetbagging Bruchman: Kansas20.org. Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-22: 34.6R/32D/32.5U : District Map : (D) Lisa Benlon –   Another former Republican state representative, Benlon returned to politics in 2008 as a Democrat, winning 53% to succeed Democrat Sue Storm, who rose to a seat on the state Board of Education. Benlon did draw a fairly strong opponent in Greg Smith, the father of the late Kelsey Smith. Still, the district’s blue tint, and Smith’s super-conservative profile, should be enough to save Benlon. Rating: Lean Democrat

KS-HR-23: 33.5R/32.2D/33.5U : District Map : (D) Milack Talia – After running twice before (once for a different state rep seat, the 29th), Talia captured 56% of the vote in his 2008 race. Helpfully for his electoral chances, he’ll defend the seat against “Conservative Constitutionalist”/teabagger Michael Foltz. Rating: Likely Democrat

KS-HR-24: 36R/32D/31.5U : District Map : (D) Mike Slattery – The scion of the apparent Slattery Democratic dynasty-in-the-making, Slattery scored a narrow Democratic primary victory in 2008 for one of the most Dem-leaning seats in the county, then went on to win the general fairly handily. Since only Talia’s and Benlon’s districts are more Democratic in Johnson County, Slattery stands a good chance of being re-elected. Rating: Likely Democrat

KS-HR-25: 45.5R/27D/26.6U : District Map : (R) Open/Barbara Bollier – Appointed to fill Terrie Huntington’s seat by local Republicans, this will be retired anathesiologist Barbara Bollier’s first race. Huntington got 57% in 2002 to win the seat, 56.5% in 2004, just 54.5% in 2006, and rebounded to 61% against a weak opponent in 2008. Bollier will face off against Shana Althouse, who is actively campaigning, quotes Gov. Sebelius, and is all about education–a good profile for this district.  Her website is good, too: www.shanaalthouse.com   Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-28: 57R/18D/24.5U : District Map : (R) Pat Colloton, generally identified as a moderate, is used to cruising to re-election, having no opponents in ’04 and ’06 and taking 75% against a token opponent in 2008. She’ll face the somewhat stronger Elise Chapline in 2010, who has self-funded $7k thus far, but I doubt Colloton’s sweating it much in her dark red seat. Rating: Likely Republican

KS-HR-29: 48.6R/21D/29.5U : District Map : (R) Sheryl Spalding – Two-term incumbent Spalding survived a right-flank primary challenge by 29 votes from the teabaggy Richard Downing and will face Democrat Doug Dowell (good name) in the general. Having survived her primary, the moderate Spalding will probably survive with solid numbers.  Rating: Likely Republican

The shadow of Siegfreid looms large across Olathe.

KS-HR-38: 45R/23.4D/31U : District Map : (R) Anthony Brown was elected in 2004 after wining the Republican primary (no Democrat filed that year). In 2006, he took 56% of the vote and in ’08 nabbed 57%. Brown is now fully identified with the conservative faction in the legislature, and faces off against JCCC professor and psychologist Roberta Eveslage, This fast-growing district contains the northwesternmost edges of Johnson County along with Eudora & the fringes of Lawrence in Douglas County. While Brown is from conservative Eudora, Eveslage is from moderate Lenexa. The battleground is booming DeSoto, where well-to-do parents are concerned about school funding battles because they need to expand their schools pretty rapidly to handle the population influx. Eveslage’s laser-like focus on the issue is smart, her website is decent (http://robertaforkansas.com/) and she’s actively campaigning. Rating: Lean Republican

KS-HR-39: 42R/26D/31.4U : District Map : (R) Owen Donohoe – Elected in 2006, Donohoe has proven to be a staunch conservative, not a great fit for this moderate district, as evinced by his weak victories, 52.3% in ’06 and 51.3% in ’08. Donohoe’s up against retired school principal Joe Novak, who ran in ’08 and nearly won. Now that he’s so clearly identified with conservatives, Donohoe is going to bleed moderate Republicans, probably enough to let Novak eke out a victory this time around. He’s also BFFs with Kansas’ worst legislator, Connie O’Brien, so he obviously sucks.  Rating: Tossup

KS-HR-40: 32R/35D/31.6U : District Map : (D) Melanie Meier – Our candidate here is awesome and profile-wise, fits her Fort Leavenworth-based district like a glove. Raised in a military family that eventually settled in Leavenworth, Melanie Meier was elected in 2008 (with 56%) but resigned her post to serve in Iraq. When she returned, KS Dems reappointed her to the seat she’d won. Active in her community, her husband’s also in the military, and she’s a Catholic, so it’s tough to imagine a better candidate for this district. She’d be an excellent candidate for higher office, too, perhaps the state Senate or even Congress against Lynn Jenkins. Rating: Likely Democrat

Next up, seats 40-80, including central and eastern Kansas (basically everything from Lawrence to Salina along I-70), some suburban Wichita seats, still a few more Johnson County seats, plus the Chet Edwards(es) of Kansas. Click here to read about the next 40 seats.

Photo credit for potentially the best photo ever of Arlen Siegfreid: the Olathe Republican Party.