Tag: 2010

Heeding some of the comments I received on yesterday’s map (thank you by the way!), I drew a slightly more VRA-observant, slightly more cautious, but still robust Democratic gerrymander of Illinois.  This map assumes that the DOJ is going to insist on 60%+ for Chicago’s already-protected VRA Latino district and therefore only drew a second one that is 52% Hispanic for Lipinski.  Probably by the end of this decade it will become enough Hispanic to elect a Hispanic congressman.  I was convinced in the commentary that my 56% Latino district of yesterday’s map is of questionable legality.

I also drew each of the 3 VRA Black districts 53% Black.  Why 53% you might ask?  That is how much each of the districts contain now when you add in additional population to account for relative population loss.  That is the maximum you can realistically place in a VRA protected Black district from Chicago after 2010, assuming that the census estimates are accurate.  We’ll know for sure in a few months.  I was under the impression that the courts have started interpreting the VRA to require 50%+1 when possible of the population but perhaps it’s a bit more in areas where it is feasible to create such districts?

The other two highlighted changes from yesterday is that I firmed up the 14th and made it an almost certain Democratic pickup like the district I designed for Debbie Halvorson.  I do not agree with the comment made by a person or two that my finger down the lake for the 10th isn’t robust enough.  I double checked the numbers today: it is nearly 150,000 new residents of precincts that on average gave 85-90% of their votes to Obama and probably 80-85% to Kerry four years earlier. This more than makes up for the loss of Waukegan.  Waukegan in turn helps Melissa Bean in her rematch with Joe Walsh.  I respectfully disagree with the comment suggesting it did not help elect a Democrat congressman finally to the 10th, although not three-time loser Dan Seals (please!).  Whether we want to quibble over whether I should label it safe Democratic or probably Democratic, Dolt is a one-term wonder.

The second significant change is that I created a second Republican vote sink in northern Illinois and placed Biggert, Roskam, and Hultgren in the same seat that swoops from the more Republican areas of DuPage out a narrow tendril to further exurbia.  Should be fun watching that primary.

I then grouped Manzullo and Schiller together in a district that favors Manzullo.  The third pair-up includes Schock vs. Kinzinger out of personal spite.  One of these glamour boys has got to go!  And it will be 2014 until they can think on taking on Dick Durbin or Governor Quinn; good luck again either!

Chicagoland:

District 1 (dark blue): Rush-D 53%B, 39%W.  Stays in Cook County now but takes very white areas away from Lipinski so the district can comply with the VRA.

District 2 (dark green): Jackson Jr.-D 53%B, 39%W.  Gives up a bit of Hispanic and racially mixed south Chicago and suburbs to Halvorson in exchange for a bit of lean-Republican suburbia formerly in Biggert’s district.  Still Jackson will have no worries here and it may introduce him to some new voters he’ll need if he ever wants to follow through on his statewide aspirations.

District 3 (purple): Lipinski-D 51% Hispanic, 41% White

Probably white-majority electorate but as the children become voters, this district will eventually probably elect a second Hispanic congressman.  I expect a lot of hollering about this district and possibly some lawsuits, but the comments on yesterday’s map convinced me of its dubious legality regarding these two seats.  Besides, I offer you two options here.

District 4 (red): Gutierrez-D 63% Hispanic, 26% White, 5% Black.  It’s certainly possible to cram more Hispanics in here but I think it will no longer be legal to do this.  The VRA – as has been pointed out – is not designed to ensure the election of a member of the ethnic group but rather to give that ethnic or racial group the maximum opportunity of electing candidates of their choice.  Again, I’ve shown yesterday that it is feasible to create two districts that, on paper, are majority Hispanic – the question is whether the DOJ and/or the courts will require it be done.  We’ll find out next year.

Also I see no reason to draw the earmuffs except to preserve a Republican gerrymander, which is why they were drawn in the first place after 1990.  By reconnecting the two parts of the seat a bit differently, you can have Davis go out into DuPage County and free up enough non-Black areas of Chicago currently in his district to vote in the 10th.

District 7 (grey) Davis-D 53%B, 33%W, 8%H

Almost goes up to Roskam’s doorstep.  Helps out the gerrymander perhaps the most as it probably ensures the election of a new Democratic congressman from the 10th and, indirectly, helps out Melissa Bean in her comeback bid as it free up enough territory that the 10th doesn’t need Waukegan.

District 5 (yellow) Quigley-D 70%W, 16%H, 4%B

In the absence of partisan numbers, I’ll guestimate based on the racial numbers and from eye-balling this that I’ve left enough of Quigley’s Chicago base to not cause him much worries.  The areas of northern DuPage County were 50-50 in Kerry-Bush and are probably slightly Dem-leaning by now.  Elk Grove also I believe is slightly Dem-leaning by now.

District 9 (light blue) Schakowsky-D 63%W, 14%H, 13%A, 8%B

Again, I believe the addition of Wheeling Twp with Mt. Pleasant is probably not endangering Schakowsky terribly, especially when I left intact her Jewish and liberal Chicago and northern suburban base.

District 10 (pink-red) Dolt-R but probably I’m guessing Hamos-D 74%W, 11%H, 9%A, 5%B

A competent suburban Democrat can win this district.  As pointed out in the comments to my other map, the thin narrow tendril down to Navy Pier is deceiving; it is packed with high-rises which vote ~85% Democratic.  I tried not to rob too much of them from Schakowsky.  Probably turns an already D+6 district (the most frigging Democratic PVI seat at the moment represented by a Republican in Congress!) probably into a district that voted for Obama in the mid 60s% and for Kerry around 60%.  Although actual numbers here will rest my case.

District 8 (purple) Bean-D vs. Walsh-R 64%W, 20%H, 9%A, 6%B

Tilts toward Bean now with the addition of Waukegan and a few Hispanic precincts in northern DuPage.  Adds the Republican part of Palatine back into the district, though.  And Bean lives in frigging Barrington.  At least the district contains no more of McHenry, though.  Without McHenry in the district in 2010, Bean would have won re-election.  I think the fact that Walsh is a wack-job, Obama is at the top of the ballot, and this is a better district for Bean will all result in this district flipping in 2012.

District 11 (indigo) VACANT designed for Halvorson-D 60%W, 20%H, 15%B

Kinzinger drawn into the 18th to duke it out with Aaron Schock, modeled after Halvorson’s old state senate seat which straddled the Will-southern Cook County area if I recall.  Modeled after the district of the 1990s actually but a bit more Democratic now than then so Halvorson should like this district quite nicely.

Northern Illinois more generally

District 6 (teal) Hulgren-R vs. Roskam-R vs. Biggert-R 80%W, 8%H, 7%A, 4%B

I bet you Biggert retires and Roskam and Hulgren try to out tea party the other.  Might leave an opening for a Melissa Bean kind of Democrat as this district – although drawn to be a Republican vote sink – still probably narrowly voted for Obama in 2008.  So it isn’t super-Republican.  Should be fun to watch.

District 14 (brown-green) VACANT but designed for a Foster comeback 61%W, 26%H, 9%B, 3%A

More firmly Democratic than yesterday’s version.  What a big difference adding Aurora makes.  In case you are wondering what the deal is about the tiny dip into DuPage is – two reasons.  First of all partisan redistricting tends to be a bit petty – for example the tiny finger going into Montgomery County, PA to come near Hoeffel’s house – I think I might have come very close to drawing Hultgren into here.  But more the point, it grabs a few carefully chosen Hispanic precincts.

District 16 (green) Manzullo-R vs. Schilling-R

Swoops around the 14th and takes all the rural Republican areas of northern Illinois out of that district and the 17th to the south.

District 17 (dark purple) VACANT possibly the Democratic Moline-based State Representative that was mentioned in the comments?

Very little different from yesterday’s version.

District 18 (yellow) Kinzinger-R vs. Schock-R

Who can out-glamour and out tea party the other?  Realistically if you are a cynical political operator out of Springfield (and who isn’t in this state of consummate political machine politicians – and I thought New York State was bad!), you will get rid of the one of the two greatest long-term threats to Dick Durbin in 2014 by pairing them together.  Either one of them would make formidable candidates in a toxic midterm in the 6th year of Obama’s possible two-term presidency.  Not that I think Durbin’s in any danger or doesn’t know how to get his hands dirty and win an election.  Just thinking about the long-term view.

Anyway, this is a rural heartland GOP vote sink now missing its juicy Democratic cities.

Downstate

District 15 (orange) Johnson-R but maybe not for long

Very similar to how I drew the seat yesterday.  I’d like to see Kerry numbers on this one, but I think the cities probably outvoted the Republican rural areas connecting them.  And even if not, it is better to try to capture one seat rather than than divide these cities into two districts and continue electing two Republican congressmen.

District 12 (medium blue) Costello-D

Very similar to yesterday’s version except I thought that Edwardsville, with its students, might be added to add a few more Democrats to the seat, and subtracted much of racist Union County.  The reason you need a tiny tendril down to Cairo is that the very tip of the state is about 30-35% black and reliably Democratic.  I live in this district, in uber-liberal Carbondale, where I teach in the history department at SIU.  Costello is so frigging safe that I figured he did not need my vote this year and voted Green to protest against his antics on the health care reform law earlier this year when he was one of the Stupak gang threatening to withhold votes needed to pass it.

District 13 (pink-red) Shimkus-R

As I said before, it pains me that I have to draw a vote-sink for Shimkus but there it is.  A devious possible alteration would be to throw Shimkus into the southern-central Illinois cities seat and draw more moderate Johnson into the vote-sink.  I guess it doesn’t really matter.

The Land of Lincoln is one of the few bright spots in an otherwise gloomy redistricting cycle.  Through Governor Quinn’s come-from-behind narrow reeelection victory, we have the trifecta in this state.  At the same time, the GOP elected five freshmen congressmen from Illinois, some in districts like the 17th, that have historically elected Democrats.  Before these congressmen can get situated, they will be put through the ringer of a partisan reapportionment.

Here are my basic assumptions in drawing this map:

1) As one of the few states where Democrats can make a big difference, Illinois Democrats will squeeze out as much seats as possible.  Realistically, Maryland will only net us one more seat (7-1 seems more realistic than 8-0) and in the other states we control like MA we actually will lose a seat.  Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan is an old-school Democratic pol; he knows a thing or two about screwing the Republicans and he will.  Unlike 10 years ago when Denny Hastert could deliver goodies to Chicago and thus needed to be placated, there is no reason to accommodate any Republicans, and there will be no accommodation.

2) A second Hispanic seat is almost inevitable, given the VRA and the explosive growth of the Latino population in Chicago.  But see #3.

3) As Madigan’s boy, Lipinski will be given another seat that he can win.  He will not be drawn out, which is more geographically logical, because he is Madigan’s boy.  Don’t know about Madigan and Quigley, but a Democrat is not going to sacrifice a seat here.  Instead, I drew Peter Roskam out of a seat; the 6th now joins the 4th as Chicago’s 2nd Hispanic seat.

4) Of the incumbent Democrats who got defeated in 2010, Debbie Halvorson will get the sweetest deal?  Why?  She’s a former majority leader (the #2 position in the caucus under Emil Jones) in the State Senate and thus in my view still has clout in Springfield.  Phil Hare will get a better seat.  And I drew a better seat for Foster to return to.  That leaves out Melissa Bean.  Oh well – not much of a Democrat is she?  

5) Partisan numbers: when the time comes for these to be uploaded, could you please put in the Kerry 2004 numbers if you are also going to do Obama numbers?  Obama got about what an average national Democrat would get below Springfield (home state advantage cancels out with the latent racism that I see every day living now in Southern Illinois among want-to-be southerners down here) but north of Springfield, particularly north of I-80, he got vote totals in Republican counties that no other national Democrat would have gotten.  No Democratic presidential candidate wins 55% of the vote in DuPage… I can see 47-50% nowadays as that county is becoming more moderate, but Obama PVI gives Democrats false assurance about redistricting.  Perhaps my map is one of those, I don’t know.  I did try to retain as much as possible of each Democratic congress person’s base in Chicago so that they would still be more than okay.

So it is hard to say for sure that all my districts will elect what I think they will elect.  But I think I’ve drawn a map that yields 14 reasonably safe Democratic seats (all the seats that string in and out of Chicago plus Jerry Costello’s 12th downstate and the newly configured 15th downstate cities seat), 1 swing seat (for Melissa Bean – the 8th), and 3 uber-Republican seats (the 16th, the 18th, and the 13th).  Following Illinois custom, the Biggert seat (the current 13th) got axed and its number migrated downstate to become Shimkus’s new seat number.

Chicagoland

District 1 (blue) Rush-D

50% Black, 41% white

Even though Rush has got a past with the Black Panthers, he should be all-right here.  One of the goals that any Democratic gerrymander of Illinois must achieve is the unpacking of enough Democratic voters from Chicago so that Debby Halvorson can win again (and I created a tailor-made new 11th district right below Jesse Jackson Jr.’s 2nd to make that happen.  Goes now into southern DuPage County and includes the home of soon-to-be ex-congresswoman Judy Biggert.

District 2 (dark green) Jackson, Jr.-D

50% Black, 40% white

Same story here as with the newly configured First Congressional District.  Removes Hispanic and white areas of South Chicago and its suburbs, which now go in the 11th to help Halvorson make a comeback to Congress, and snakes into Will County a bit and then up like a U to parts of DuPage.  If Jackson still nurses his statewide aspirations, this would be the perfect district for that.

District 3 (purple) Lipinski-D

White 65%, Hispanic 20%, Black 9%



Extends a bit further into suburban Cook County into areas once in the former 13th (so probably slightly lean Republican) but balances that off of black voters in south Chicago not needed by any of the 3 VRA protected districts.  Lipinski should be fine in any case.

District 4 (red) Randy Hultgren (R) but not for much longer!!

61% Hispanic, 28% White, 7% Black



I believe Gutierrez lives in my new 6th district and that this district contains more Mexicans rather than Puerto Ricans (but can a Chicagoan please correct me on this if I am wrong).  Don’t know whether this would pass VRA muster or not, but I see no reason why a Hispanic could not get elected from here even if his/her voters are not 61% Hispanic.  

To accommodate Lipinski for all the reasons spelled out above, and to help crack Peter Roskam and Randy Hultgren, this district now snakes all the way to Hispanic-Aurora.  Still no crazier than the current configurations of the 4th district.

District 5 (yellow) Quigley-D

69% White, 14% Hispanic

I believe the Du Page areas I added to this district, along with Elk Grove, are at worst 50-50.  With both Quigley and Schakowsky I tried to maintain as much as possible their Chicago bases of support while rejiggering a bit the suburban parts.

District 6 (teal) Gutierrez-D

56% Hispanic, 33% White, 4% Black

Also snakes a bit now into DuPage County.  I believe this is all-right with the VRA given that the district contains a lot of Puerto Ricans who are already citizens?  Please, a Chicago resident, correct me if I am grossly in error here.

District 7 (grey) Davis-D

50% Black, 37% White

Finishes the job of cracking Peter Roskam with throwing his key base, Wheaton, in a black-majority district.  Some of the 37% who are white, though, are white liberals out of Oak Park, so Davis will not face a problem here.

District 8 (purple) 50-50 rematch between Bean and Walsh, thinking that I’ve given Bean somewhat of a slight advantage here but am not sure

Grabs Waukegan and subtracts a bit in heavily-Republican McHenry.  I think I’ve given Bean a ticket back to Congress – especially when one considers that we are dealing with Governor Quinn, and thus a Democratic trifecta with redistricting, because State Senator Jim Brady- Tea Party got about 50k fewer votes than did Mark Kirk in the collar counties.  Joe Walsh is a one-term fluke; these Republicans are moderate and will probably cross over to vote for Obama and Bean in two years just as they did to reelect my governor when everyone said he was toast.  Could have gone the extra mile and grabbed Elgin but I wanted to make sure that the 14th was amenable to voting for a Democrat as well, so I did not.

District 9 (light blue) Schakowsky-D

Extends a bit further north into Republican-leaning Wheeling Township, but I made sure to keep enough of Evanston and the Lake Front of Chicago – her bases of support.  Look a Democratic gerrymander is going to have to unpack the black VRA seats and Schakowsky’s liberal bastion if it Schakowsky is going to be able to have a chance of voting for Speaker Pelosi again.  And I think Schakowsky knows that and will play along.

District 10 (pink) possibly now a Democrat wins?

Added about 100,000 new Chicago coast residents that make it practically impossible for Dolt to win reelection here.  One of the two really wonderful benefits of unpacking Democrats in Chicago a bit.

District 11 (light green) VACANT (tailor-designed for Halvorson-D)

Condenses to just Will County (minus 3 Republican townships in the 2nd) so Kinzinger is drawn out of the seat but… wait… this is Halvorson’s base.  Adds a finger of about 150,000 Cook County residents to the seat and… voila… I think I’ve just created a district that voted for Obama probably in the 60% range now.  I’d dare Kinzinger to try to win from here.

The rest of northern Illinois

District 14 (brown-green) VACANT

Built a district that connects slightly Republican-leaning Kane County (which it is, minus Aurora), slightly-Democratic DeKalb next door (because of NIU), and added what I imagine is heavily Democratic Rockford to the mix.  Looks compact and probably is enough Democratic to elect Bill Foster should he wish to run again.  This is the district that I want to test the most with Kerry 04 numbers, though.

District 16 (green) Kinzinger (R) vs. Manzullo (R) vs. Schilling (R)

Northern Illinois GOP vote sink.  Did the petty thing and drew all three Republican congressmen from this region into the same district, leaving the 17th and the 14th next door both vacant.

District 17 (purple) VACANT (Phil Hare-D?  or is there another Quad Cities Democrat who is more good at not losing his seat)

Quad Cities, Peoria (but not the part of Peoria that our glam-congressman lives in), snakes through mildly Democratic Bureau and LaSalle Counties to grab Kankakee.  Still looks a bit fugly, but in some ways is an improvement over the current district’s configurations.  Besides, no more ultra-Republican Quincy to muck up the works.

District 18 (yellow) Schock-R

Figure if you can’t get rid of this glamour-boy, straight out of central casting, and you really cannot, you might as well give him then a GOP vote sink so you can elect Democrat congressmen to the north and south.  This district now contains no major cities at all.

Southern Illinois

District 15 (orange) Johnson-R probably a Democrat wins now or after Johnson retires

The other district that I would like to have tested with Kerry numbers.  Connects Dansville, Urbana-Champaign, Normal-Bloomington, Decatur, and Springfield together in a reasonably-looking district.  Adds historically Democratic Montgomery County to the mix.  I think this district probably voted for Kerry, but I don’t know and Obama by a bit more.  Kerry didn’t do well in Southern Illinois.

District 12 (light blue) Costello-D

Changes very little, goes north into Macoupin and surrounding Democratic-leaning counties to make up for population loss.  This is my local congressman and about the only way to draw Southern Illinois nowadays to guarantee a Democrat in congress from that region.

District 13 (pink) Shimkus-R

Again, largely the same.  Goes a bit northward into where the old 15th was to enable the reconfiguration of that district into a district that will probably elect a Democrat now.  Shimkus is a scumbag, but realistically you need a Republican vote sink down here.

So, there you have it.  Is this something reasonably safe enough for a Democratic gerrymander?  Or did I just draw a dummymander?  Let me know.

As an ex-New Yorker, I keep my eyes perennially glued to New York politics.  It did not shock me terribly that Republicans took back a fair number of upstate New York house seats.  There were a lot of 27-1 or 28-0 nonsense maps put on this website last winter that failed to take into account that Republicans in New York often vote Democratic for president when they think the national candidate is too extreme but have no problem voting Republican downballot the rest of the way.  This may eventually change, like the voting habits of Dixicrats in the South apparently have, but it will take a while.

What shocked me the most was that it appears that the State Senate, and with it the Democratic trifecta that everyone was counting on last winter, has switched back into narrow GOP control pending the recounts in a few still undeclared State Senate seats.  With the lost of the North Buffalo seat to a Republican candidate, it appears our best hopes lay on working to a 31-31 tie.  Still, even were the lieutenant governor to cast a tie-breaking vote to organize the chamber for the Democrats, we have to keep in mind that there are quite a few scumbags in the delegation (Carl Krueger always tops the list in my view now that Espada and Montserrate are gone) who are more than willing to cut a deal with Dean Skelos (the GOP leader in the State Senate).  I therefore assume the following:

1) The GOP will have a seat at the table with redistricting.  Even with the very best scenario of the state senate breakdown of 31-31, it would be very hard to pass a Democratic gerrymander through the state legislature.  That’s just the reality.  

2) It will be an incumbent protection map that discomfits only those chosen to be drawn out.  

3) Despite Cuomo’s enthusiasm for a commission drawing the maps, it will not be passed in time to affect this round of redistricting and probably won’t be passed ever.  I can hardly ever see Shelly Silver giving up on drawing the State Assembly lines and that’s what it would take for Cuomo’s idea to prevail.  The Democratic leadership of the State Assembly perennially sold their party brothers and sisters over in the State Senate down the river for decades in going along with all the pro-GOP gerrymandering of the State Senate.  I hardly see anything different now.  

So this will be an agreement brokered between 3 men in a room, like the state budget or anything in New York State politics.  (For those of you not from New York or familiar with this phrase, it refers to the governor, the Assembly Speaker (always Democrat) and the State Senate President (usually historically Republican).

4) In addition to protecting the 4 black VRA districts and the 2 Hispanic VRA districts, a 3rd Hispanic district out of Joe Crowley’s currently minority-majority district that is Queens/Bronx will likely have to be passed to pass VRA preclearance.  This complicates greatly the map for downstate in a way that 2000 did not.  I would imagine that one of the three Queens white Democrats (Ackerman, Weiner, Crowley) gets the axe but expect there to be bitter racial tension over this.  Even if the GOP is closed out from redistricting through some act of miracle like the Buffalo state senator deciding to caucus with Democrats and/or Craig Johnson and Suzi Oppenheimer both winning their recounts, all it takes is one or two disgruntled Latino politicians that their constituency isn’t getting their “fair share” of congressional districts for them to bolt tactically to the Republicans.  If you don’t think this is a serious concern, I consult you to the 2001 mayoral election as a textbook example.  Fernando Ferrer sat on his hands – the Bronx Democratic machine did nothing on election day – and Bloomberg won.

So the crux of the matter is that a third Hispanic district will be created, very likely in the Queens/southern and eastern Bronx area.  Despite the fact that Crowley has close ties to Shelly Silver, he seems likeliest to be discomfited the most by the stark demographic realities of New York City.

5) In the past, New York State politicians in Albany have tended to privilege clout above all else.  Anyone who sits on Appropriations (Israel, Hinchey, Lowey, Serrano), Ways and Means (Rangel for now, Crowley, Higgins), or Financial Services because of the state’s ties to Wall Street and the large donations these members can draw (Maloney, Velazquez, Ackerman, Meeks, McCarthy) are generally immune from losing their districts.  I would add to this list Peter King (the incoming chair of Homeland Security – very important in swinging money to NYC and the State which overrides national partisan political objectives) and Slaughter (on Rules, which if the national Democrats get their act together and win back the House, she will again chair).

6) Western New York, which took the brunt the last time will not this time around, even though that is the part of the state that is losing the most population.  Either a prettier version of the dumbells will be created again for Slaughter, or there will be a Buffalo-Niagara Falls and a Rochester-Monroe County district.

7) The Hudson Valley (which gave up the other lost seat in 2002) will also not lose a seat.  Nita Lowey is too powerful to consent to a Westchester brawl between her and Nan Haysworth.  Hinchey’s on the powerful appropriations committee so a Hudson Valley conglomerated district between him and Haysworth also isn’t going to happen, either.  Given the state GOP’s desire to want to protect their most imperiled pickup, Buerkle’s surprise defeat of Dan Maffei in the Syracuse-based district, Hinchey’s elongated Southern Tier-Hudson Valley district will be needed to suck up ultra liberal votes out of Tompkins County.

Therefore, who might get targeted for elimination?

If New York only loses one seat, it seems easy to me to predict the outcome.  Bill Owens and Chris Gibson will be merged together in an Eastern Upstate New York congressional district that combines the northern most counties with the upper Hudson Valley, swooping around Albany.  It would be, depending on how you draw the lines, anywhere between a 52-54% Obama district and truly a “fair fight.”

What I’ve been struggling with is who gets the axe in addition if it’s a two-seat casualty loss and New York only has 27 seats after 2010.  In this scenario, the bipartisan redistricting scenario would require one Democratic and one Republican seat to vanish.  Upstate New York is where they would almost definitely take the Republican seat from.  Bill Owens would be left alone and Hanna and Gibson or Gibson and Haysworth would be merged.

Okay, so far so good.  Which Democrat gets the axe?  Remember, NYC is an universe all to itself and city politicians have a tendency to privilege the maintenance of clout and seniority over all else.  Also, it seems to me that even when I run the numbers on Dave’s redistricting app, a 3rd Hispanic district will still have to likely be created; therefore Crowley is still in a lot of peril one way or the other.

My guess is Eliot Engel of the north Bronx will eventually get the axe.  He is not well-liked in the delegation, nor by the Bronx party machine.  The demographic realities of a two-district loss mean that upstate will push a bit south even with losing one seat (because all of the population growth has been Hudson Valley-South for the past 2 decades at least) and there isn’t enough room in the Bronx to maintain a white district for him.  He sits on Foreign Affairs, which is a plum committee, but for pork barrel and “I scratch your back, you scratch mine” New York parochial politics, that aint good enough when push comes to shove.

The only thing that gives me pause is that when I play with it on Dave’s application, it does make the map a bit messy.  Haysworth swings south a tiny bit, like in the current map, to grab up more Republican-leaning or mixed areas of northern Westchester and northern Rockland.  Lowey takes the rest of Rockland and Westchester easily enough.  Then you would have Nadler swing north into Riverdale and left-over parts of Yonkers not needed in Lowey’s district.  Rangel could then have retain a black-plurality for his district by going into the north Bronx, Mt Vernon and parts of New Rochelle.  And then you would have room enough to create the 3rd Hispanic district in the southeast Bronx/northern Queens areas.  Down in Brooklyn, Grimm gets the heavily McCain precincts, the two black districts expand a bit more in that direction to gain new population, and Anthony Weiner gets the rest of the area that Nadler gives up.  Weiner is exactly the kind of Democrat that these voters would vote for so that’s not a big problem.

My only other guess is what to do out in Long Island.  Is it possible to really help Bishop at the expense of Israel or (ripple effects) McCarthy?  Bear in mind that Peter King has a safe pass given a) his position as the chair of Homeland Security and b) Dean Skelos being a fellow Nassau County Republican.  Realistically also, and this was the major flaw in many of the maps I saw it last year, no New York City politician wants to have to represent Long Island – there is just this hostility between the two regions as well as this narrow parochialism that is a New York City disease (and I can say that being a former New Yawker myself – I absolute refuse to give up rooting for my often lousy Mets).

So Peter King gets a safe GOP district, but unless you go into the City and have some of the City districts come out into the Island a bit, there are only enough Democrats for 2 districts (the current 2nd and 4th, both at 59% Obama performance).

So that’s what I foresee happening; Bishop not being helped all that much (except maybe the removal of Smithtown and the home of Altschuler) with some minority areas of Islip Town being added in its place.  This brings his district up from 52-53% Obama to 55% Obama, not that much of a help frankly.  It would have to be done in such a way not to imperil Israel most of all (as an appropriator he has a tremendous amount of clout) and McCarthy indirectly (because if you have Israel grab black areas in Nassau to compensate for losing minority voters in Islip, you risk imperiling McCarthy).

So the likeliest Democratic casualty if it is a 2-district loss seems to me to be Eliot Engel.  The only other possible scenario that I keep playing in my head is that perhaps Weiner gets the axe with everyone expecting (including himself all these years) that he will run for mayor in 2013.  I also note that he does not sit on any important clout committee – Education and Labor is not important enough in steering resources or in protecting tax provisions for Wall Street for Albany politicians to care much to want to protect him.  Engel still might not out of the woods with this scenario, though.  Might Shelly Silver protect his protege Crowley by drawing Eliot Engel into a Hispanic-majority district, axeing Weiner and drawing Crowley a dream Queens district where he can marshal the Queens Democratic machine behind him?  Intriguing possibilities….

I welcome your thoughts on this.  As someone who, because of my job, now resides in southern Illinois and only comes back to the City 2-3 times a year or to the Hudson Valley (where I’m originally from), my political radar antenna isn’t as perceptive as it might be were I still resident in New York.  

Continuing the thought experiment about what 2010 redistricting look might like under the “Wyoming Rule,” I give you Texas.  The mid-cycle Delaymander, together with the freak elections of Farenthold and (slightly less shocking) Canseco, several incumbents in the Dallas and Houston areas that are seeing their once solid districts become purplish (think Culberson and Sessions), means that likely the GOP is going to play tactical defense with redistricting this time around.  But the nice thing with adding 14 new districts (versus 3-4 in actual reality) under the Wyoming Rule is the GOP is able, in addition to protecting each and every one of its incumbents, to create several open GOP seats throughout the state.

The second thing I wanted to know what how exactly the VRA might place a monkey wrench in efforts to expand the GOP congressional delegation in Texas.  We know in reality, with a likely 35 or 36 seats after 2010, 2-3 of those will be new VRA seats (probably a new Hispanic district each in the Dallas-Forth Worth and Houston areas), plus perhaps a new Hispanic district in South/West Texas.  But, interestingly, under Wyoming-sized districts, even though there are more VRA districts, the GOP is still able under this map to gain 9 out of the 14 new districts (and that includes one VRA Hispanic district in West Texas that voted 55% for McCain!)  It turns out that the VRA will not prevent the GOP from locking down a likely 32-14 split in Texas’ congressional delegation under the Wyoming Rule.  Follow me below the jump for maps and a fuller explanation.

Now were this New York, they would sensibly label the districts in a coherent way, but this is crazy Texas which means having districts jumping all over the place!  But because I wanted to know where the new districts were going to be, I kept the numbers all the same and added in the new districts.  Since Texas is several states all onto one, I will divide my discussion here by region, starting with Dallas-Forth Worth.

Dallas-Fort Worth Metro Area

The map in the Dallas-Forth Worth area sees several major changes.  First of all, the VRA would require the creation of not one but two new Hispanic districts while turning Johnson’s 30th, which is currently a fusion minority-majority district, into a Black majority district.  But because all the Democratic votes get vacuumed up in three as opposed to one district, as is currently the case, the remaining two open seats created in the region are heavily favored to elect Republicans and all currently existing GOP incumbents are given safe districts.

District 3 (light purple) Johnson (R)

Obama 39, McCain 60

This district divides almost neatly into two given its explosive population growth and the smaller districts under the Wyoming Rule.  I decided to move this district completely into Collin County.

District 36 (light orange) NEW GOP SEAT

Obama 39, McCain 60

Took swingy areas in northern Dallas County from Johnson’s current district and merged them with uber-red outlying areas in Collin County mostly now in Hall’s 4th.  Like any GOP mapmaker would do.

District 32 (dark orange) Sessions (R)

Obama 43, McCain 56

Proof you can still create a relatively safe GOP seat in north Dallas, once you create the new VRA seats.

District 5 (yellow) Hensarling (R)

Obama 34, McCain 65

Mostly a Dallas and East Texas hybrid, like now.

District 33 (blue in Dallas County) NEW HISPANIC DISTRICT

H 52, W 25, B 20

Obama 71, McCain 28

The first of two new VRA-compliant Hispanic districts in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

District 30 (mauve) Johnson (D) BLACK DISTRICT

B 53, W 29, H 14

Obama 80, McCain 19

To make 2 Hispanic districts in the Dallas/Forth Worth area and to gobble up Democratic voters in Fort Worth, Johnson’s district now gives up Hispanic areas in Dallas to the 33rd in exchange for black voters in Fort Worth.  In the real world of redistricting under a 35/36 district map after 2010, her district will likely be drawn in much the same way.

District 34 (green) NEW HISPANIC DISTRICT

H 52, W 30, B 15

Obama 61, McCain 38

This is the 2nd Hispanic majority district, this one a fusion extending from western Dallas to parts of Irving all the way over to Fort Worth.  Again, in the real world after 2010, GOP mapmakers are likely to draw the new Hispanic seat this way as well to maximize the amount of Democratic voters sucked into VRA districts.

District 6 (teal) Barton (R)

Obama 38, McCain 61

Largely as currently, a south Dallas exurbs and rural district with a piece of Arlington to remove all the most pro-Democratic parts away from the open 35th district next door.

District 35 (purple in Tarrant County) NEW GOP SEAT

Obama 39, McCain 60

Should elect a Tarrant County Republican no problem.

District 12 Granger (R)(light blue)

Obama 36, McCain 63

Granger gets a considerably safer district now that minority areas in Forth Worth are removed into the 30th and the 34th.

District 24 Marchant (R) (dark purple)

Obama 41, McCain 58

Should be a safe district for Marchant as long as he wants it…  no longer goes so much into swingish Irving.

District 26 Burgess (R) (slate)

Obama 36, McCain 63

Confined just to Denton County now.

District 39 (light white/beige) NEW GOP SEAT

Obama 23, McCain 76

I combined all the Dallas-Fort Worth exurban counties north, west, and south into one district instead of splitting them off in a million and one directions.  Should be safe for a firebreather as Democrats are an endangered species here.

East Texas

District 1 Gohmert (R) (dark blue)

Obama 30, McCain 69

Slight changes made.

District 4 (red) Hall (R)

Obama 29, McCain 70

Should be safe for the GOP when Hall retires or dies.

District 5 (yellow) (see writeup in Dallas-Fort Worth section)

District 6 (teal) (see writeup in Dallas-Fort Worth section) The only thing I’ll add here is that the 6th now cuts Waco in half with the new 40th, thus probably ensuring no return to Congress by Chet Edwards.

District 40 (burnt orange) NEW GOP SEAT

Obama 39, McCain 60

Probably a safe seat for the GOP, Obama percentage is as high as it is due to abnormally high turnout in 2008 for him in Bell County.  Probably overstates Democratic strength a bit.  If Edwards were to try to get back into Congress, it might be from this district, but I still think the deck is stacked against him.

District 37 (light blue) NEW GOP SEAT

Obama 32, McCain 67

East Texas gets a district of its own.  While this district at one time may have elected a conservative Dixiecrat in the mold of Charlie Wilson, I don’t think it will now.

District 17 (dark purple) Flores (R)

Obama 33, McCain 66

Removes the possibility of Edwards trying to take his old seat back by removing Waco completely and recentering the district more to the left-over areas from drawing districts in East Texas and the Houston area.  

Houston Area

This is one area where the VRA, once thought to be a major friend to the Democrats, actually surprised me in not being all that much of one (South/West Texas is the other).  Back in 2004, the GOP actually sensibly left three Democrats alone here.  A second Hispanic district is added and Lee gets a Black majority district instead of her current fusion minority-majority one.  Even though two new GOP suburban seats are created, all GOP incumbents are given safe districts.

District 2 (forest green) Poe (R)

Obama 38, McCain 61

Shrinks a little bit from before but basically the same.

District 42 (neon green) NEW GOP SEAT

Obama 42, McCain 57

Was able to partition Olson’s district roughly in half into two successor districts, this is one of them.  Would be the congressman who represents the space center in Houston I believe.

District 29 (greenish-gray district right next to it) Green (D) HISPANIC DISTRICT

H 63, W 22, B 12

Obama 63, McCain 36

Perhaps the end of Green and an Hispanic congress-member at last from this district?  Cut in half from its current version to make another Hispanic district in the Houston area.

District 18 (yellow) Jackson-Lee (D) BLACK DISTRICT

B 56, H 24, W 15

Obama 85, McCain 15

Once you scrape off the Hispanic precincts and place them into a new Hispanic district, it is possible to create a Black-majority district in the Houston area, and something which the VRA would require.  In actual reality, after 2010, the Houston area is going to look a lot like I have it now under a 35/36 seat map as under a 46 Wyoming Rule map.

District 9 (sky blue) Green (D) MINORITY-MAJORITY COALITION SEAT

B 38, H 33, W 16, A 11

Obama 79, McCain 21

Very similar to what currently exists.  A very proactive Obama DOJ would perhaps require a black-majority district stretching all the way down to Galveston and over to Beaumont, but I don’t think the Texas GOP will concede such a district unless legally forced to.  I know if I were a Texas Democrat, I would draw such a very district!  In the latter scenario, this district would extend a bit further than now into Fort Bend (and scrape off a few more areas out of the 7th) and retain its mixed-race character.

District 41 (top lighter gray) NEW HISPANIC DISTRICT

H 58, W 30, B 9

Obama 58, McCain 41

Takes Hispanic areas currently in the 7th and 18th, and left-over areas from the 29th, and combines them into a district.

District 7 (lower slightly darker gray) Culberson (R)

Obama 41, McCain 58

Largely the same as before except with  heavily-Democratic Hispanic precincts cut out.

District 38 (light green) NEW GOP DISTRICT

Obama 40, McCain 59

Should be fine for the GOP.

District 8 (purple) Brady (R)

Obama 23, McCain 76

All of Montgomery County and a bit of north Houston County to equalize its population.  Very safe GOP.

In Fort Bend and south of Houston…

District 22 (brown) Olson (R)

Obama 42, McCain 58

Removed the Houston parts of the district into a new district as well as shaved off a few very blue precincts of Fort Bend into the 9th.  Olson should be fine.

District 14 (ugly green) Paul (R)

Obama 33, McCain 66

The incongruity of a congressman who doesn’t believe in flood insurance representing several areas prone to hurricanes gets me.  But then again, I understand very little that comes out of Texas!

Austin Area

With the smaller Wyoming-sized districts, it is prudent to pack Democrats of Travis County into one uber-Democratic district instead of trying to crack them as is currently the case.  Indeed, I would not be surprised if the GOP did this anyways in the real world after 2012.  Doggett isn’t going anywhere.

District 25 (mauve) Doggett (D) NEW MINORITY-MAJORITY DISTRICT

W 42, H 39, B 13, A 5

Obama 78, McCain 20

Packs Democrats and packs them some more into this one Austin-based seat.

District 10 (pink) McCaul (R)

Obama 43, McCain 55

Instead of going east in search of Republican votes to offset the still large numbers of Democrats leftover after drawing the 25th, this district now goes south to the exurbs of San Antonio.  Still, McCaul should like this district.

District 31 (white-yellow) Carter (R)

Obama 43, McCain 55

All of Williamson County and then dips south into a bit of Travis County to help spread the remaining Democratic voters out safely among the 3 districts surrounding the 25th.  If Williamson ever turns purple or blue, Carter may be in for some difficulty.  If the GOP had a long-term version, they’d concede a 2nd Democratic seat in Travis.  But I’m dealing with yahoos who think they can secede from the union for crisssakes!

District 45 (light blue) NEW GOP DISTRICT

Obama 42, McCain 56

This district completes the cracking of remaining Democratic voters out of Travis County by combining Democratic and lean-Democratic areas of Travis with uber-Republican areas north and northwest of San Antonio currently in Lamar Smith’s district.

San Antonio

Here the idea was to see whether I could create a VRA-compliant district that protects Conseco.  A Democrat could still win the district back, but I think I have achieved this goal.  Otherwise, Smith moves entirely into Bexar County.

District 21 (dark brown) Smith (R)

Obama 42, McCain 57

It is possible to draw an entire district in Bexar County that will continue electing Lamar Smith.  Amazing!

District 20 (pink) Gonzolez (D)

H 71, W 19, B 7

Obama 68, McCain 31

Packs Democrats in so that Conseco can be given a fighting chance next door.

District 23 (light blue) Conseco (R)

H 56, W 37, B 3

Obama 50, McCain 49

I believe this just barely meets VRA muster in that 56% is likely just enough to ensure that a majority of adults are Hispanic.  If not, the district can be tweaked a bit to ensure that it is.  About the best that can legally be done for Conseco under the Wyoming Rule.

District 28 (light pink/purple) will be written about in the South Texas writeup.

South Texas

District 27 (light green) Farenthold (R)

H 63, W 31, B 4

Obama 50, McCain 50

In a shocker upset, a white Republican now represents a heavily Hispanic South Texas district in the Corpus Christi area.  To give him a fighting chance, I carved out a new more Democratic district to its south.  But even though this district is still well within VRA guidelines, McCain still narrowly carried it.

District 43 (pink) NEW HISPANIC SEAT

H 73, W 24

Obama 54, McCain 46

Still impressed by how good Republicans do down here.  I guess South Texas Hispanics really don’t vote (because many of them aren’t legal citizens yet?).  A Republican could easily win this D+1 seat in a wave election like we just had.

District 15 (orange) Hinojosa (D)

H 70, W 26

Obama 52, McCain 48

Legally you cannot pack South Texas too heavily with Hispanics; hence all the thin narrow districts.  But that also means that none of these districts are all that Democratic in vote performance.

District 44 (dark red) NEW HISPANIC SEAT

H 76, W 21

Obama 56, McCain 43

South Texas’ other VRA mandated new Hispanic seat.  Again note how it would only be lean-Democratic.

District 28 (lilac) Cuellar (D)

H 81, W 13

Obama 68, McCain 31

Okay, here we get a Democratic-performing district, probably because of the little bit of San Antonio in the district.  Delicious irony from a GOP mapmakers perspective that one of former President Bush’s favorite Democrats gets the most Democratic district in South Texas!

Northwest Texas

Here I decided to create a GOP voting VRA Hispanic district that climbs up the spine of the New Mexico border.  After that, I decided to neaten up the district a bit; there’s no need for wild crazy lines when the days when the likes of Charlie Stenholm ever representing this region again in Congress are now gone and probably gone forever.  This is the most Republican region of all of Texas (of America?) when you take the Hispanics out and give them their own district.

District 13 (beige) Thornberry (R)

Obama 22, McCain 77

District 19 (ugly green) Neugebauer (R)

Obama 29, McCain 70

District is still 27% Hispanic even with the Hispanic district next door explaining the slightly higher Obama performance.  Still Democrats are an endangered species in West Texas.

Southwest Texas

District 11 Conaway (R) (neon green)

Obama 21, McCain 78

District 46 (light red) NEW HISPANIC DISTRICT

H 61, W 32, B 5

Obama 44, McCain 55

This is one way the GOP can screw the Democrats using the VRA.  



District 16 (green)

H 78, W 18, B 2

Obama 65, McCain 34

District shrinks due to Wyoming Rule, making it possible to draw a 2nd West Texas Hispanic seat.

So to recap, the map protects fully 21 of the current 23 Republicans in the delegation and gives the other 2 VRA districts they have a fighting chance of winning.  Then of the 14 new seats, using the VRA to pack Democrats, the GOP is able under this map to carve out 9 new districts for themselves, yielding only 5 to Democrats under the VRA.  Result, a delegation anywhere from 30-16 to 33-13 (given that Hinojosa now represents a R+1 district by PVI).  Yuck, yuck, yuck!!!

66 seats previously held by Democrats in the House of Representatives fell to the Republicans. Open seats accounted for 14 losses and incumbents accounted for 52.

LA-03 (Open – Melancon)

TN-06 (Open – Gordon)

NY-29 (Open – Massa)

AR-02 (Open – Snyder)

KS-03 (Open – Moore)

IN-08 (Open – Ellsworth)

TN-08 (Open – Tanner)

WI-07 (Open – Obey)

PA-07 (Open – Sestak)

AR-01 (Open – Berry)

MI-01 (Open – Stupak)

WA-03 (Open – Baird)

NH-02 (Open – Hodes)

WV-01 (Open – Mollohan)

PA-03 (Dahlkemper)

FL-08 (Grayson)

OH-01 (Driehaus)

OH-15 (Kilroy)

TX-17 (Edwards)

FL-24 (Kosmas)

IL-11 (Halvorson)

CO-04 (Markey)

FL-02 (Boyd)

NH-01 (Shea-Porter)

WI-08 (Kagen)

GA-08 (Marshall)

NV-03 (Titus)

MD-01 (Kratovil)

PA-11 (Kanjorski)

VA-05 (Perriello)

OH-16 (Boccieri)

VA-02 (Nye)

SC-05 (Spratt)

MS-01 (Childers)

AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick)

NM-03 (Teague)

ND-AL (Pomeroy)

AZ-05 (Mitchell)

SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin)

IL-14 (Foster)

PA-10 (Carney)

NY-19 (Hall)

IL-17 (Hare)

CO-03 (Salazar)

PA-08 (Murphy)

IN-09 (Hill)

AL-02 (Bright)

ID-01 (Minnick)

NJ-03 (Adler)

FL-22 (Klein)

TX-23 (Rodriguez)

OH-18 (Space)

TN-04 (Davis)

MO-04 (Skelton)

MI-07 (Schauer)

NY-20 (Murphy)

VA-09 (Boucher)

OH-06 (Wilson)

MS-04 (Taylor)

NY-24 (Arcuri)

IL-08 (Bean)

NC-02 (Etheridge)

MN-08 (Oberstar)

TX-27 (Ortiz)

NY-25 (Maffei)

NY-13 (McMahon)

Now, what interested me was where these people lost and indeed, where did people survive?

Seats lost with a GOP PVI (52):

TX-17 R+20

MS-04 R+20

ID-01 R+18

AL-02 R+16

MS-01 R+14

MO-04 R+14

MD-01 R+13

TN-06 R+13

TN-04 R+13

LA-03 R+12

VA-09 R+11

GA-08 R+10

ND-AL R+10

SD-AL R+9

WV-01 R+9

PA-10 R+8

AR-01 R+8

IN-08 R+8

SC-05 R+7

OH-18 R+7

CO-04 R+6

NM-02 R+6

AZ-01 R+6

IN-09 R+6

FL-02 R+6

TN-08 R+6

VA-05 R+5

VA-02 R+5

C0-03 R+5

AZ-05 R+5

AR-02 R+5

NY-29 R+5

OH-16 R+4

NY-13 R+4

TX-23 R+4

FL-24 R+4

NY-19 R+3

PA-03 R+3

KS-03 R+3

MI-01 R+3

NY-20 R+2

NY-24 R+2

MI-07 R+2

FL-08 R+2

TX-27 R+2

NC-02 R+2

OH-06 R+2

IL-14 R+1

NJ-03 R+1

IL-11 R+1

IL-08 R+1

NH-01 R+0

In these hyper-partisan times even multi-term incumbents couldn’t hold on in the terrible environment despite having done so easily in the past.

Seats retained with a GOP PVI (17):

UT-02 R+15 (Matheson)

OK-02 R+14 (Boren)

KY-06 R+9 (Chandler)

AR-04 R+7 (Ross)

NC-11 R+6 (Shuler)

PA-04 R+6 (Altmire)

PA-17 R+6 (Holden)

WV-03 R+6 (Rahall)

MN-07 R+5 (Peterson)

NC-07 R+5 (McIntyre)

AZ-08 R+4 (Giffords)

IN-02 R+2 (Donnelly)

NC-08 R+2 (Kissell)

CA-11 R+1 (McNerney)

MN-01 R+1 (Walz)

NY-23 R+1 (Owens)

PA-12 R+1 (Critz)

These select few deserve kudos for surving.

Seats lost with a Dem PVI (14):

WA-03 D+0

WI-08 D+0

OH-01 D+1

OH-15 D+1

FL-22 D+1

NV-03 D+2

NH-02 D+3

PA-07 D+3

WI-07 D+3

NY-25 D+3

PA-08 D+3

IL-17 D+3

MN-08 D+3

PA-11 D+4

Proof positive that the wave was not confined to traditional Republican territory.

Republican seats with a Dem PVI (20):

WA-03 D+0

WI-08 D+0

FL-22 D+1

NJ-02 D+1

OH-01 D+1

OH-12 D+1  

OH-15 D+1

NV-03 D+2

PA-08 D+2

PA-15 D+2

IL-17 D+3

MN-08 D+3  

NH-02 D+3  

NY-25 D+3

PA-07 D+3

WA-08 D+3  

WI-07 D+3

PA-06 D+4  

PA-11 D+4

IL-10 D+6

Obviously redistricting makes this more difficult but there are some juicy targets here for Dems to go on the offense.

Seats lost that voted for Obama (30):

VA-02

TX-23

KS-03

NY-19

MI-01

NY-20

FL-08

MI-07

NY-24

NC-02

TX-27

WI-08

IL-14

IL-11

IL-08

NJ-03

NH-01

WA-03

OH-15

FL-22

OH-01

NV-03

PA-08

WI-07

MN-08

NY-25

NH-02

IL-17

PA-07

PA-11

Obama won big so it was to be expected that some of these districts would slip back.

Seats lost by incumbents that voted for Kerry (6):

NY-25

IL-17

PA-08

FL-22

MN-08

PA-11

The most disappointing group of losses in my mind.

With Pennsylvania set to lose a congressional district in 2010, and with the GOP now in charge of the process (again), here’s what a 12-6 map might look like.  It’s quite ugly but ugliness is perhaps the only way the GOP can take a light blue state and cement a 12-6 hold on its congressional delegation!  (Bear in mind, Bush II never carried PA).  Even as is, I think a 12-6 map, eliminating just one Democratic congressman, is perhaps a dummymander.  Southeastern PA, especially, is trending away from them.  But I see no way the GOP is going to sacrifice one of their own to make a more sensible 11-7 map.

Ok, here goes… and I’ve renumbered the districts roughly west to east… can’t understand why PA, OH, FL, TX, and a few other states have district numbers that jump all over the place!

District 1 (blue): Altmire (D) OR Dahkemper (D): Erie, New Castle, Dem areas of SW PA

Obama 55, McCain 44

This is perhaps the ugliest district in the entire map, and its purpose is as a Democratic vote sink so that neighboring CD #2 becomes much safer for the GOP.  Still surprising that it isn’t all that Democratic-performing going by Obama’s vote percentage.

District 2 (green): Kelly (R)

Obama 42, McCain 57

Kelly gets a considerably safer district with the removal of Erie into CD #1.

District 3 (purple): Doyle (D)

Obama 68, McCain 31

Still a ridiculous vote sink around the Pittsburgh area.  District extends south a bit to gain some of the southern-most suburbs and thereby helps Murphy’s district become a bit redder.

District 4 (red): Murphy (R)

Obama 42, McCain 57

Republican suburbs in southern Allegany County, most Republican areas of Washington County, and almost all of now GOP-leaning Westmoreland County.  Murphy should be happy with this district.

District 5 (yellow): Thompson (R)



Obama 44, McCain 54

A more condensed version of the PA wilds district that you drive through on I-80.

District 6 (teal green): Shuster (R) vs. Critz (D)



Obama 41, McCain 58

If you were to get rid of a Democrat out of the 7, Critz is the safest one to get rid of.  The ruby-red mountains of PA drown out whatever Democratic votes Critz may be able to get out of Johnstown or Fayette/Somerset counties.  This should be safe for Shuster, unless he forgot how to campaign like Gekas in 2002.

District 7 (grey): Platts (R)

Obama 42, McCain 57

Stays largely the same.

District 8 (purple): Marino (R)

Obama 44, McCain 54

The GOP is faced with a real dilemma in NE PA in that they have 2 GOP freshmen incumbents to protect in an area that should by rights only elect one of them.  Because of this, they realistically cannot target Holden as they did in 2002.  Because of the need to give safer districts to Barletta (and, realistically, Dent – certainly if I were a GOP mapmaker I’d hedge my bets there), this district shifts south to grab all of Dauphin County.  The Democrats of Harrisburg are drowned out by the Republicans of Lycoming and other GOP counties between the two…. Best of all, while it is possible for a Democrat to win this district, Christopher Carney no longer lives in this district.

District 9 (sky blue): Barletta (R)

Obama 45, McCain 54

Through clever conceding of the most Democratic areas of his current district to Tim Holden’s neighboring 10th, this district becomes a carbon-clone of the 9.  Goes from the Republican T south to northern Berks County, but aside from swingy areas in Lackawanna and Luzerne County, this is a lean-GOP district, although it includes the home of Chris Carney, most of the district would be unfamiliar to him.

District 10 (pink): Holden (D)

Obama 61, McCain 37

This is Northeastern PA’s Democratic vote sink.  It accordingly helps out Baretta and Dent.  It helps out the latter by removing Bethlehem, the city of Dent’s 2010 challenger, and about 1/2 of Allentown, through a narrow ugly tendril southward from Carbon County.  Hoping that the part that Dent lives in is in neighboring CD 11; if not, it can easily be rectified by swapping precincts in Allentown.  From there it extends north to include all of the Democratic-rich areas of Scranton and its environs; ditto with Wilks-Barre and other Democratic areas of Luzerne.  It also includes the more Democratic eastern half or so of Schuylkill County, where Holden lives.

District 11 (neon green): Dent (R)

Obama 53, McCain 46

This district becomes a bit safer for Dent by extending north a bit along the Delaware River to Monroe, Pike, and Wayne counties.  It loses Bethlehem and part of Allentown through a narrow tendril in the 10th district.  Although Dent easily gets reelected in his district, his 2010 opponent, the mayor of Bethlehem, presented Dent with a tough race.  He now can run in a Democratic primary against Holden if he wishes.

District 12 (slate blue, I guess): Gerlach (R)

Obama 52, McCain 47

For slaving it out cycle after cycle, Gerlach gets a much safer more exurban district.  Lebanon, the rest of Berks not in CD 10, including all of Reading, which Gerlach can handle, a bit of northern Montgomery, and the northern half or so of Chester, where Gerlach is from.

District 13 (peach): Pitts (R)

Obama 47, McCain 52

Lancaster and the southern bit of Chester, where Pitts is from.  One is tempted to make this even more Democratic still to help out fellow SEPA Republicans elsewhere, but Pitts would be endangered if this district got any bluer than it is.  Indeed, if Lancaster follows Chester in becoming the next red-to-blue suburb of SE PA, I wouldn’t be surprised if Pitts retired and was replaced either with a more moderate Republican or a Democrat.

District 14 (ugly green): Meehan (R)

Obama 53, McCain 46

mostly the same as before in Delaware County, with a few more heavily-Democratic areas such as Media, the areas around Swarthmore College, and heavily black areas in Upper Darby and Lansdowne removed into Brady’s 18th.  The district extends a bit further into carefully chosen precincts in Montgomery County, with Schwartz taking the most Democratic ones.  Meehan should be fine.

District 15 (orange): Fitzpatrick (R)

Obama 52, McCain 47

Bucks County finally gets partitioned, with Bristol, the home of Murphy, and the most Democratic areas nearest Philadelphia removed into Schwartz’s 16th and replaced with more GOP areas in Montgomery County.  The district gets 2-3% more Republican than currently is the case as a result.  About the best that can be done for Fitzpatrick.

District 16 (light green): Schwartz (D)

Obama 64, McCain 35

There we have it, an effective Democratic vote sink in SEPA that helps out all of the endangered GOP congressmen surrounding it.  It carefully takes in the most Democratic areas of Montgomery and Bucks and connects the two through also taking in a large part of NE Phily.  

District 17 (dark purple): Fattah (D)

Obama 88, McCain 12

55% black, 34% white, 5% Hispanic

Largely the same as before, gaining more areas in NE Phily to equalize its population.  Black % drops but still VRA-compliant by a long way.

District 18 (yellow): Brady (D)

Obama 87, McCain 13

44% black, 30% white, 18% Hispanic

Again, largely the same as before.  Extends a bit further into Delaware County to vacuum up heavily-Democratic precincts in favor of Meehan; likewise it takes a bit more of NE Phily than it did before.  Still, it retains its position as a minority-majority VRA-complaint coalition district.

Well what a topsy turvy race this has been. On election night we thought that Maffei had it in the bag, only to discover, when all 4 counties that make up NY-25 reported all precincts, that the Republican candidate was in fact in front by 684 votes!

Below the fold for more……..

Now almost a week after election day it seems that about 11,000 absentee ballots were distributed across the 25th. Final returns won’t be known for at least another week.

What we do know is this:

Election day numbers (D/R):

Cayuga – 959(35.4%)/1748(64.6%)

Monroe – 16426(45.1%)/19987(54.9%)

Onondaga – 72323(53.7%)/62419(46.3%)

Wayne – 9191(37.3%)/15429(62.7%)

Election day totals 98899(49.8%)/99583(50.2%)

Absentees issued (final total)/returned (as of last wednesday night)

Cayuga – 148/117

Monroe – 1660/1243

Onondaga – 8154/5578

Wayne – 1683/1226

TOTALS – 11654/8154

So lets test three scenarios:

1) Vote %’s remain as they were on election day and absentees as per last wednesday night (highly unlikely) then the vote totals will be (D/R):

Cayuga – 1000/1824

Monroe – 16985/20671

Onondaga – 75432/65068

Wayne – 9651/16212

TOTALS – 103068/103775

2) Vote %’s remain as they were on election day but absentee return rate is 100%(also unrealistic)

Absentee returns:

Cayuga – 148/148

Monroe – 1660/1660

Onondaga – 8154/8154

Wayne – 1683/1683

TOTALS – 11654/11654

Votes (D/R)

Cayuga – 1011(35.4%)/1844(64.6%)

Monroe – 17175(45.1%)/20898(54.9%)

Onondaga – 76702(53.7%)/66194(46.3%)

Wayne – 9819(37.3%)/16484(62.7%)

TOTALS – 104707/105420

3) Absentee returns increase by 5% and Maffei Onondaga vote increases by .5%

Absentee returns:

Cayuga – 148/124

Monroe – 1660/1326

Onondaga – 8154/5986

Wayne – 1683/1310

TOTALS – 11654/8746

Votes (D/R)

Cayuga – 1003/1828

Monroe – 17024/20715

Onondaga – 76742/65160

Wayne – 9680/16250

TOTALS – 104449/103953

Maffei by 496.

So what does this mean?

Simply put the only way for Maffei to win is to get a higher percentage of the absentee vote than he did the election day vote. A high absentee return will not by itself get him over the line.

Obviously the most likely way for him to make up enough votes is in Onondaga county, the largest part of the district, and the only county he won.

Can he do it? Time will tell. I think he can by the way as absentees tend to trend toward incumbents as compred to election day votes (as a rule of thumb).

Your thoughts?

So here we are at the end of the 2010 race (well, almost at the end – there are still a couple of uncalled races). These are my picks for best and worst campaigns of this cycle. What are yours? And tell me if you agree or disagree with any of these

BEST CAMPAIGNS

Harry Reid – NV-SENATE This was a masterpiece, one of those campaigns that will be studied for decades as an example of how to win in a negative environment. Reid’s ads were brilliant, his strategy was forward thinking (i.e. he started knocking out potential opponenents in 2008) and he did a great job with GOTV and the other essentials. Yes, he got lucky in his opponent (and very unlucky in the cycle he was running), but given how at one point it looked like the Republicans could run a ferret against Harry Reid (oh wait, I guess they did) and still win, this still was an amazing comeback story.

Ron Johnson – WI-SENATE Yes, Feingold had underperformed in the past, but he had also survived a Republican year in 2004, and his outsider cred had beaten Republicans three times before. But Johnson ran a canny campaign that turned Feingold into a Washington insider, and managed to pull the biggest upset of an incumbent Senator of the cycle.

Rick Scott – FL-GOVERNOR This one pains me, because I think Scott is a loathsome individual. But the fact of the matter is, to get such a loathsome individual across the finish line against an incumbent Attorney General and the respected CFO of the state, you have to have a pretty good campaign. Best move: tarring Sink with the same corruption brush that had been used against Scott, even though the cases weren’t even close to similar.

National Republican Campaign Committee The NRCC and Pete Sessions got ridiculed a fair amount on this site and others for their poor fundraising compared to the DCCC, but it turns out they were probably the smartest of any of the big campaign committees, opening up new opportunities throughout September and October. They certainly outperformed the more respected RGA.

Barbara Boxer – CA-SENATE Boxer is thought to be in trouble every campaign cycle, and everytime she outperforms expectations. Give the woman some respect.

John Kasich – OH-GOVERNOR Yeah, Portman blew his opponent away, whereas Kasich race was much closer, and yes Ohio’s economy is in the crapper, but he still had a tough job in beating Ted Stickland, who’s unpopularity never reached the level of some other Midwestern governors. Along with Scott’s win, the biggest victory (in terms of influence) for the Republicans on election night.  

Marco Rubio – FL-SENATE Rubio showed some mad (and for us Dems, potentially scary) political skills in first driving Crist out of the Republican party, and secondly, beating both his opponents with just under 50 percent of the vote.

Bob Dold – IL-10 It’s hard to single out one House campaign as being better than the others in a wave year, but Dold won a seat almost none of the pundits thought he could win, and (with Costa apparently holding on) pulled off the most Democratic seat of the cycle. Gotta give the guy props for that.

Lisa Murkowski – AK-SENATE (write in campaign only). Murkowski ran one of the worst campaigns up until the primary, but the fact she seems about to win as the first write in candidate for Senate since the 1950’s is pretty amazing, and deserves some credit.

Ben Chandler One of the few Dems to survive Tuesday’s apocalypse. In a R+9 district, no small feat.

WORST CAMPAIGNS

Meg Whitman, CA-GOVERNOR How could you spend so much money, and lose so badly?

Lee Fisher, OH-SENATE Fisher’s campaign was basically all downhill after he won the primary.

DCCC We all loved Chris Van Hollen after the 2008 cycle, but I think he made a huge strategic error in not cutting more Democrats loose when he realized how bad the wave was going to be.

Alan Grayson, FL-08 One last thing to say about Grayson – when is the last time a Democrat was responsible for the most sleazy, misleading ad of the campaign?

Jim Oberstar, MN-08 Of all the committee chairs to lose this cycle, Oberstar was the only one to lose in a Democratic district (according to PVI). He should have seen this one coming.  

On Tuesday night we were all (including me) counting Jim Costa amongst the casualties of the 2010 GOP wave. After all he was trailing Republican challenger Andy Vidak by 1823 votes with 100% of precincts reporting.

Fortunately that judgement seems to have been  premature. 🙂

Below the fold for all the details…….

CA-20 comprises part of Fresno and Kern counties and all of Kings.

Whilst votes cast in district on election day have all been counted there are still a large number of vote by mail, provisional and “other” ballots to be counted. Other ballots include ballots that are damaged, ballots that could not be machine read and ballots diverted by optical scanners for further review.

Of course some of these have been processed and counted since Tuesday and as of the close of counting on friday Costa has narrowed the gap to only 1091 votes!

Here is how I think the remaining votes will shape out.

Firstly Fresno County.

Fresno thus far has voted 60/40 in favour of Costa and it has about 80000 votes left to count. The number of 20th District votes left in Fresno is approximately 16000. If these break for Costa as the votes counted have thus far then that is a net gain for Costa of about 3200 votes.

Secondly Kern County.

Kern has thus far split 62/38 in favour of Costa and it has about 65000 votes to count. About 13000 of these are in the 20th. If they shape out the way votes counted thus far have then Costa stands to gain about another 2500 votes.

Lastly Kings County.

Kings is all in the 20th and has voted thus far 70/30 in favour of Vidak. However Kings has only another 500 odd votes to count which would give Vidak a gain of only 200 votes.

So…..

-1100 (current Vidak lead)

-200 (Kings gain to Vidak)

+3200 (Fresno Gain to Costa)

+2500 (Kern Gain to Costa)

That leaves Costa in front when all is said, done and counted by about 4400 votes. Assume my numbers are overly optimistic. (They are approximate for ease of calculation but otherwise no heroic or unrealistic assumptions have been made.)

Then Costa should have an ample lead to win.

Your thoughts at this seemingly great news?  

Cross posted at my blog http://frogandturtle.blogspot…. which you should visit for more election analysis.

Pundits always say that when election day is really close, some candidates start pulling away from the opponent. In West Virginia, we are seeing that. Joe Manchin (D) was in a close race with John Raese (R) but Manchin retrieved his lead when Raese made some gaffes such as looking for “hicky” people in an ad and then the controversy of his house in Florida (his wife is not even registered to vote in West Virginia.) Not all tossup races though have an incumbent pulling away in then end. In Pennsylvania, Toomey is leading by about 3 and his seems to have stopped Sestak’s surge. Sources on the ground in Philadelphia though tell me that the GOTV operation there is in full swing for Sestak and if a larger than expected turnout occurs in Philadelphia, Sestak will be much closer and maybe win. Races though that have stayed as pure tossups include Illinois, Colorado, Washington and Nevada. In Illinois, Mark Kirk (R) seems to be gaining a few points but the Obama rally may have woken up the base enough to beat him. Colorado has an interesting race where Michael Bennett (D) is winning because he is pushing a woman’s right to choose as a big issue and it seems to be working. Ken Buck (R) leads heavily among men while Bennett has a big lead with women. The race that should shock the pundits though is Nevada. All polls show a small Angle lead but what I see is a dead heat. The early voting in Nevada presents good results for the Democrats and people on the ground have mentioned how all the Democrats there are planning to vote.

There is one race though the Republicans must pick up to win the Senate. West Virginia and California both look stronger for the Democrats so if the Republicans want to win, they MUST win Washington State. Patti Murray (D) has put up a strong fight against Dino Rossi (R). Rossi has run statewide twice before and he lost both times. His 2004 run for Governor against Christine Greigoire (D) went into a recount. Washington is a high turnout state and some polls even suggest Republicans have less enthusiasm than Democrats. Also, cell phone only households are common in the heavily Democratic Seattle and many pollsters do not poll cellphone users. In Oregon’s Gubernatorial race, it made a difference when John Kitzhaber (D) lead by 8 points with all phone users but 4 points with landlines only. Anyway, these Senate rankings here are my last ones before election day. Races such as California and West Virginia shift more towards the Democrats while Illinois shifts towards the Republicans (but it is still tossup in my book.) The Republicans are looking to pick up 7-9 seats because I do not see Rossi winning. Also, the names in parentheses are the names of the candidate from the incumbent party.  Bolded races mean the race may switch parties. Anyway, here are the rankings:

Safe D (6 seats)

Delaware (Chris Coons) Has O’Donnell ever had a shot here?

Hawaii (Daniel Inoyue) He has been in Senate since 1962 and he is staying.

Maryland (Barbara Mikulski) No problem in this heavily Democratic state.

New York A(Charles Schumer) I do not think anyone can beat him.

New York B (Kristen Gillibrand) A few polls showed a tight race in September but not anymore.

Vermont (Patrick Leahy) Another easy Democratic hold.

Likely D (1 seat)

Connecticut (Richard Blumenthal) Linda McMahon (R) is spending like Meg Whitman but Blumenthal is leading in the polls.

Lean D (3 seats)

California (Barbara Boxer) Polls showed a tightening race but Boxer’s strong campaigning keeps it Democratic.

Washington (Patti Murray) She seems to have her lead back but will it stay?

West Virginia (Joe Manchin) After proving how out of touch he is with West Virginia, John Raese (R) is slipping in the polls.

Tossup (3 seats)

Colorado (Michael Bennett) PPP showed Ken Buck (R) up one point, showing how this race is a DEAD HEAT.

Illinois (Alexi Giannoulis) Polls show Kirk leading by 4 but Chicago has strong GOTV.

Nevada (Harry Reid) Polls show Angle with a small lead here but early voting looks good for Reid.

Lean Republican (5 seats)

Alaska (Joe Miller) The extremist Joe Miller (R) is slipping but write in Lisa Murkwski Murkowski (R) looks like she will win instead.

Kentucky (Rand Paul) Jack Conway (D) is a strong candidate but the Aqua Buddha ad sent him down.

New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte) New Hampshire has been trending towards the Democrats recently but now it is shifting towards the Republicans.

Pennsylvania (Joe Sestak) Democrats were hoping for a surprise pickup here but polls show Toomey with a 5 point lead. GOTV probably cannot narrow that gap.

Wisconsin (Russ Feingold) Wisconsin always seem to come home to its Democrats but Feingold was too independent for the base.

Likely Republican (8 seats)

Arizona (John McCain) Rodney Glassman (D) is another good candidate in a bad cycle.

Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln) The South keeps trending Republican and John Boozmen (R) should be Arkansas’s next Senator.

Florida (Marco Rubio) Saying he will caucus with the Democrats if elected has not saved Charlie Crist (I) against Marco Rubio.

Indiana (Brad Ellsworth) Ellsworth could have been a strong candidate and the NRA endorsement probably will not save him against Dan Coats (R)

Louisiana (David Vitter) Charlie Melancon (D) did well with the oil spill and Vitter saw D.C Madam but family values are not a big issue this year.

Missouri (Roy Blunt) Robin Carnahan (D) is a good candidate but Obama’s unpopularity here is bringing her down.

North Carolina (Richard Burr) No Senator has held this seat for more than one term since 1976. Elaine Marshall (D) cannot continue the tradition.

Ohio (Rob Portman) At least Lee Fisher (D) knew he would not win so he gave $300,000 to Ohio Democrats.

Safe Republican: (8 seats)

Alabama (Richard Shelby) Was this race ever on your radar? It was not on mine.

Georgia (Johnny Isakson) Michael Thurmond (D) is a reasonable candidate in the wrong year.

Idaho (Mike Crapo) Not much to say here.

Kansas (Jerry Moran) Democrats can win here but definitely NOT this year.

North Dakota (John Hooeven) Democrats who are popular with constituents can win easily in North Dakota. So can Republicans.

Oklahoma (Tom Coburn) People talk about conservatives overrunning the Senate this year. This one is already in.

South Carolina (Jim DeMint) The Democrats nominated the worst candidate possible against the teabagger king.

South Dakota (John Thune) No challenge at all.

Do you agree or disagree with the rankings? Do you have any you want to share? Feel free to comment.