Swing State Project

So, this is my first SSP diary! The 2010 Census data for my beloved Bluegrass State was released in one of the recent data dumps, but unfortunately it's not on Dave's App yet. Fortunately, there were absolutely no surprises in the final data, so for this map I am using the estimates, which produce results nearly identical to what the real ones would.

Kentucky, of course, has a 4R-2D delegation currently. Redistricting is up to the legislature (currently split; Dems have the House, GOP has the Senate) with the governor having veto power (Dems of course control this with Steve Beshear). There really hasn't been much redistricting talk that I've heard of yet, probably mostly due to the fact that not much will change. But one possibility is an incumbent protection map, especially considering some of the current Reps are starting to make their opinions known to the powers that be. 

Note that this is not necessarily the map I expect to see emerge. It's just one possiblity, and frankly it's about the most interesting Kentucky map to draw that has a realistic shot at happening. This is about as good as it gets for all six incumbents.

 

 

KY-01 Ed Whitfield (R- Hopkinsville) (Blue)

My home district lost some population and so it needs to expand a bit. Not much changes, though. It remains Western Kentucky-based, with a rather ugly arm extending into the hard right south-central part of the state. That arm does move west a bit to accomodate the fifth's move westward, but it's really just trading deep red territory for other deep red territory. I wish this would become a strictly western-based seat (it could be done by adding Owensboro), but I doubt it'll happen. Whitfield is, unfortunately, good to go.

Rating: Safe GOP

 

KY-02 Brett Guthrie (R- Bowling Green) (Green)

The second needs to shed some people, as the Louisville burbs have done some growing over the past decade. Ironically, though, this seat actually becomes much more suburban/exurban. by giving some southern counties to the first and now totally surrounding Jefferson County. In terms of the GOP primary (the only race that will really matter here), that does tip the balance more toward the eastern part of the district, but it shouldn't be a problem for the Bowling Green-based Guthrie (in case you were wondering, both Bowling Green and Owensboro are Republican-leaning despite being decent-sized towns). Guthrie probably has statewide ambitions at some point, but even if he goes, this seat's outcome is not in doubt.

Rating: Safe GOP

 

KY-03 John Yarmuth (D- Louisville) (Purple)

John Yarmuth remains confined in his little slice of Heaven, also known as Metro Louisville. Jefferson County has not grown much relative to the rest of the state, and it remains almost exactly the size of one CD, so hardly anything changes here. This area is trending blue, and the popular congressman should be fine if he survived 2010. It's hard to believe Anne Northup represented this just a few years ago.

Rating: Likely Dem

 

KY-04 Geoff Davis (R- Hebron) (Red)

Davis is a fellow you might not have heard of unless you're from Kentucky or you're a real junkie; he's a pretty unassuming backbencher. His base in the solid-red Cincinnati burbs has grown quite a bit, so this district needs to lose some people. It pulls further away from Louisville, notably dropping suburban and growing Oldham County, taking in a few more counties to the south and east. It remains safe for Davis and any other GOPer.

Rating: Safe GOP 

 

KY-05 Hal Rogers (R- Somerset) (Yellow)

Here's where things get a bit more interesting. As you can see, the fifth has lost some of its mountain flavor (but still keeps plenty of it) as it ceded some ancestrally Dem counties to help Ben Chandler's cause. Seeing as it was already losing population, it has to expand westward, now taking in parts of central Kentucky and even some Lexingon peripheral areas. It remains one of the poorest CD's in the country.

One notable feature of this map that may appeal to Republicans is that it pretty much takes this district off the table for any future Dems down the road. Of course old Hal is untouchable, but in its current configuration, it's not impossible, in an open seat situation, for a conservative Mongiardo-style Dem (maybe Mongiardo himself?) to win the fifth with a fantastic campaign in a good year. But with its Democratic heart cut out and given to the sixth, that possibility is probably gone. 

Rating: Safe GOP 

 

KY-06 Ben Chandler (D- Versailles) (Turquoise)

The big one, and the centerpiece of the whole map. As you SSPers know, Chandler eeked out a narrow win last year over the tea-flavored Andy Barr. It was actually quite impressive that he did it, but he's probably a bit spooked anyway and it wouldn't be shocking to see him ask for a better district. So here it is. The sixth gives away conservative territory in the north and south, freeing up room to expand east and take in the heart of Appalachia. While these counties mostly vote GOP on the national level now, they will still easily break for any competent statewide or local Kentucky Dem. The KDP tradition is very strong here; Bruce Lunsford (remember him?) won all but two of the counties here in '08 against McConnell, and one of those was Chandler's home of Woodford. Conway also did well here in 2010. 

Now, this is not without its drawbacks. I have expressed this concern before: Lexington/Frankfort and the coal counties are very different. They both vote for Dems, but their interests are worlds apart. That said, it's hard to imagine a Republican winning here, so it would really just be more of a personal concern for Chandler on a few issues. He should be fine, although don't expect him to move to the left much. 

Rating: Likely Dem 

 

So, there you have it. Not much action is likely to happen in the Bluegrass in redistricting, but this is one possibility, although if Beshear loses the governor's race this year this map probably becomes slightly less likely. Hope this sheds some light on the situation. 

Because you’re that hardcore… it looks like Dem Bob Buckhorn has a serious lead over Rose Ferlita in the early going.

UPDATE: Ferlita has conceded – Buckhorn wins! I assume this is good news for John McCain.

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There’s also a mayoral runoff in Kansas City, too, between Democrats Mike Burke and Sly James. I don’t see any results yet, but you can try that link.

As has been mentioned repeatedly here on SSP, Virginia redistricting will apparently be done through a deal where in exchange for an incumbent protection map for an 8-3 in-favor-of-Republicans Congressional delegation and allowing the GOP-led House of Delegates (HoD) to draw its own map, the Democratic State Senate will get to draw its own map to protect its slight 22-18 advantage. While the circumstances of this deal may change if the Department of Justice does indeed force Virginia to have a second minority-majority district (read: African-American) in the southeast part of the state, for the time being this deal is the basis for redistricting.

Due to the off-year nature of elections in Virginia, it is more difficult to predict turnout and momentum, particularly with the 2011 election coming up in November affecting all 40 Senate seats and the 100 seats in the HoD. While the 2009 election had the governor’s race at the top of the ticket, it did not impact the State Senate because its seats are elected in non-gubernatorial years. Considering the disastrous performance of the Democratic candidates on top of the ticket which contributed to the loss of five Democratic seats in the HoD, we can be thankful that this is the case. Otherwise, the GOP would likely have taken control of the State Senate in addition to the governorship and thus controlled the entire redistricting process.

With all of this in mind, I have been formulating a State Senate map that both protects the Democratic majority and gives it a chance to increase its lead given the right circumstances. In doing so, I’ve attempted to not draw GOP incumbents out of their districts because of how this would likely engender resentment and could upset the redistricting deal. I’ve also tried to draw realistic districts though my map is certainly a gerrymander – however, based on the previous State Senate map, I don’t think it’s any worse in terms of compactness or ignoring communities of common interest. Additionally, I preserved all black majority-minority districts in the Tidewater and around Richmond, as well as the same number of white plurality districts in Northern Virginia (NoVA). In reviewing the new districts I drew, I will refer to their old Dem-GOP and Obama-McCain numbers based on an attempted sketch that I made of the current districts on Dave’s Redistricting App. I have also kept every district’s population total inside of 1,000 from the ideal number. The final result of my efforts is this map, which creates a good chance for a 24-16 Democratic edge after 2011 (if everything goes according to plan):

Unfortunately, I couldn’t manage to draw my home town of Harrisonburg into a Democratic district, but you can’t win them all. Anyway, details on my map are after the jump.

We’ll begin with the districts from the western side of Virginia. Here’s a map that stretches from  Southwest Virginia (SWVA) north into the Shenandoah Valley and east into what is known as Southside Virginia. I’ll discuss districts 40, 38, 22, 21, 19, and 23 here.

VA-40 (Brown) – GOP Incumbent, Safe GOP

In its current form, this district is one of the most Republican districts in Virginia. However, on my map it is now the most GOP-heavy based on 2008 numbers. This ought to please William Wampler, Jr., who represents this district.

Before – Dem average: 38.1%,  Obama: 33.2%

After – Dem average 37.1%, Obama 32.9%, Race: 94.2% W, 2.4% B, 2% H

VA-38 (Aquamarine or Light Blue) – DEM Incumbent, Likely DEM with Incumbent and Likely GOP otherwise

The Democratic representation in this district is a holdover from the days when coal unions still held more power and plenty of Southern and Appalachian Democrats were still consistent voters for the party. Phil Puckett, the incumbent here, took office in 198 and went unopposed in 2007. He ran unsuccessfully for the Lieutenant Governor’s nomination in 2005. As a conservative Democrat who Johnny Longtorso compared in his recent diary on the State Senate to Bobby Bright, Puckett is the only kind of Dem who can hold this district. Luckily, he’s only 63 and could probably hold this district for a while longer. I am confident that the day he retires, the district will fall into Republican hands. For that reason and the fact that there weren’t exactly many Democratic areas to extend the district into, I didn’t really alter the complexion of the district very much. We can see the 2008 shift in Appalachian voters in the numbers:

Before – Dem avg.: 46.5%, Obama: 39.8%

After – Dem avg.: 46.7%, Obama: 39.5%, Race: 93.7% W, 3.7% B, 1% H

VA-22 (Navy Blue) – GOP Incumbent, Safe GOP

This district was extended down into the southwest some while losing Radford, a town with college students in it and therefore more blue. However, everything else about this district is red except the color I gave it on the map. It incorporates the city of Salem which is famous for its appearance in the movie Borat where he’s at the rodeo and sings the national anthem incorrectly. Yeah, it’s a conservative area. Its northeastern edge contains half of Botetourt County, which is where the incumbent, Ralph K. Smith, lives. Hopefully, he lives in the western half of the county that’s still in this district.

Before – Dem avg.: 40.2%, Obama: 39.1%

After – Dem avg.: 39.7%, Obama: 37.9%, Race: 91.7%, 3.7% B, 1.7% H, 1.4% A

VA-21 (Chocolate) – DEM Incumbent, Lean/Likely DEM

Originally, I extended Phil Puckett’s district over to Radford to attempt to pick up more Dem voters. However, I realized that was something of a dummymander so instead I included Radford in the new VA-21 which joins the other college town of Blacksburg, where Virginia Tech is located, in the southern part of the district. The most important Dem source of votes is the city of Roanoke, which is entirely in this district, and is the largest city in western Virginia, and is where incumbent John Edwards lives.

Before – Dem avg.: 54.2%, Obama: 56.2%

After – Dem avg.: 54.7%, Obama: 57.4%, Race: 74% W, 15.9% B, 4.1% H, 3.7% A

VA-23 (Teal) – GOP Incumbent, Safe GOP

This district was mostly unaltered, though it became slightly more Democratic. However, it is still solidly red for incumbent Steve Newman. It’s home of Lynchburg, where Liberty University is, so I guess that’s appropriate.

Before – Dem avg.: 38.1%, Obama: 37%

After – Dem avg.: 40.9%, Obama: 39.3%, Race: 78.8% W, 15.7% B, 2.1% H, 1.4% A

VA-19 (Lime Green) – GOP Incumbent, Safe GOP

Fresh incumbent William Stanley took over this district after Robert Hurt defeated Congressman Tom Perriello in the 2010 election for the Virginia 5th Congressional District. However, the 19th has been greatly altered, losing all of Danville and part of Pittsylvania County while adding the rest of Campbell County and parts of Carroll, Floyd, Henry, and all of Patrick counties. What’s left is a redder district:

Before – Dem avg.: 41.3%, Obama: 41.6%

After – Dem avg.: 36.6%, Obama: 34.1%, Race: 85.2% W, 10.5% B, 2.2% H

Sticking with the Southside area, we’ll move along the southern border of the state towards Richmond and the Tidewater. Here’s a picture of the area, and I will talk about districts 20 and 15:

VA-20 (Gray) – Dem Incumbent, Safe DEM with Incumbent, Lean DEM/Toss-up otherwise

Roscoe Reynolds has represented this district since winning a special election to replace then-Democrat and later everyone’s favorite “blame ‘Anchor babies’ for all of America’s problems” Congressman Virgil Goode. He’s a Blue Dog but not too far to the right. His district originally went over to the city of Galax and into SWVA. I have shifted it towards the center, grabbing many heavily African-American areas and the Dem-leaning city of Danville to join Reynold’s hometown Martinsville. Considering he won with over 60% of the vote in a district where Obama got 40%, I’m confident he can hold the bluer district I’ve built.

Before – Dem avg.: 42.5%, Obama: 40%

After – Dem avg.: 50.3%, Obama: 52.7%, 57.7% W, 37.2% B, 3% H

VA-15 (Gold) – GOP Incumbent, Safe GOP

VA-20 stole major blue areas from VA-15, and in the meantime, VA-15 became both redder and the largest district in the state. Incumbent Frank Ruff, who lives in Clarksville, right at both the border of Virginia and North Carolina and where the VA-15 meets VA-20, should be pleased with it.

Before – Dem avg.: 44.9%, Obama: 46.9%

After – Dem avg.: 43.2%, Obama: 45%, Race: 66.4% W, 29% B, 2.3% H

Continuing east, we will now discuss the Richmond area. We’ll discuss districts 12, 11, 10, 9, and 16. Here’s a map:

VA-12 (Light Blue) – GOP Incumbent, Safe GOP

This district used to contain a small part of Richmond but no more. The growth in Henrico County guaranteed that the district would have to shift boundaries and it has. Former GOP Majority Leader, Walter Stosch, represents this district, and while he’s getting up in years, I’m sure he’ll be fine with this district.

Before – Dem avg.: 41.4%, Obama: 45.2%

After – Dem avg.: 40.5%, Obama: 43.7%, Race: 72.8% W, 12.2% B, 4.3% H, 8.4% A

VA-11 (Chartreuse) – GOP Incumbent, Safe GOP

Outside of NoVA, few areas of the state had larger growth than Chesterfield County. This created an opportunity to shrink VA-10 to make it more Democratic while leaving VA-11 with most of the redder areas. VA-11 stretches into the GOP stronghold city of Colonial Heights and stretches into Powhatan County in the west to create one of the reddest districts on this new map.

Before – Dem avg.: 42.6%, Obama: 47.2%

After – Dem avg.: 35.8%, Obama: 38.5%, Race: 75% W, 15.5% B, 4.4% H, 2.8% A

VA-10 (Pink) – GOP Incumbent, Lean DEM, DEM PICK-UP +1

VA-10 was reduced in geographic scope more than any other district on the map from its original form as far as I can tell, becoming perhaps one-third of its previous size due to the large growth in Chesterfield County. By slightly increasing the parts of Richmond that are in the district and by putting all of the Dem-leaning areas of Chesterfield County in the district, I’ve created the first real Dem pick-up opportunity without drawing out the incumbent, John Watkins, who lives in Midlothian which remains in the district.

Before – Dem avg.: 41%, Obama: 43.2%

After – Dem avg.: 53.3%, Obama: 58.3%, Race: 63.4% W, 24.4% B, 6.7% H, 3.2% A

VA-9 (Navy Blue) – DEM Incumbent, Safe DEM

The first majority-minority district to discuss, VA-9 did not change much, holding onto a part of Richmond and all of Charles City County while only adding a small part of Henrico to leave the county in only two districts and a tiny part of New Kent County for population reasons. It remains a 50%+1 black district.

Before – Dem avg.: 73.3%, Obama: 78%

After – Dem avg.: 68.4%, Obama: 73.9%, 34% W, 56.4% B, 4.1% H, 2.6% A

VA-16 (Lime Green) – DEM Incumbent, Safe DEM

Another majority-minority district, the VA-16 incorporates parts of Richmond and Chesterfield County while having all of Prince George and African-American-heavy Petersburg and Hopewell.

Before – Dem avg.: 67.1%, Obama: 73.9%

After – Dem avg.: 62.4%, Obama: 70.5%, Race: 35.1% W, 51.7% B, 9.2% H, 1.6% A

VA-18 (White, picture below) – DEM Incumbent, Safe DEM

Moving on to the Tidewater area, I’ll first give us a picture of the most gerrymandered district on this map, VA-18, which was drawn for VRA reasons originally. It has been slightly shifted east but remains an awkward construction whose sole purpose is to create a 50%+1 black district stretching from eastern Southside to Portsmouth in the Tidewater.

The statistics for VA-18:

Before – Dem avg.: 64.9%, Obama: 67.9%

After – Dem avg.: 61.6%, Obama: 65%, Race: 41.2% W, 52.4% B, 2.8% H, 1.2% A

VA-1 (Royal Blue, picture below) – DEM Incumbent, Lean DEM

Right above VA-18 is VA-1, which used to include the city of Poqouson to the east along with Newport News and parts of Hampton. Now it runs down into where VA-13 used to be (I’ll get that to that momentarily), taking in sections of Southampton and Isle of Wight counties and all of Surry and Sussex. At the same time, it stretches up to take in the college town of Williamsburg and the Dem-leaning areas right around it in James City County and southern York County. As incumbent John Miller lives in Newport News, most of the city is located in VA-1 but the part of Hampton that was in it has been removed.

As I said a moment ago, VA-13 was once located in this area, running from Hopewell, through Suffolk and into part of Portsmouth. However, NoVA clearly needed another district somewhere and this seemed like an appropriate district to ax as its incumbent is 75-year old Fred Quayle, who while powerful, could easily be close to retirement. He apparently teaches at Old Dominion University and could be coaxed into spending his time doing that for his remaining years. Remember, the Dems get to draw this map, and doing it this way certainly helps Miller, whose district had a GOP-majority average.

Before – Dem avg.: 43.8%, Obama: 47.1%

After – Dem avg.: 50.7%, Obama 55.7%, Race: 57.1% W, 30.4% B, 6.3% H, 2.8% A

Now, for the rest of the Tidewater districts. We’ll cover districts 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 14 here:

And a further zoom in:

VA-2 (Green) – DEM Incumbent, Safe DEM

VA-2 is home to incumbent Mamie Locke, who lives in Hampton, and the district is another majority-minority one. This district was not greatly altered from its original form, just picking up some GOP and less-blue parts of Newport News to help out VA-1.

Before – Dem avg.: 68.3%, Obama: 73.7%

After – Dem avg.: 64.6%, Obama: 69.8%, Race: 38.2% W, 51.2% B, 4.9% H, 2.2% A

VA-5 (Yellow) – DEM Incumbent, Safe DEM

Another majority-minority district, VA-5 is represented by Yvonne Miller of Norfolk, who ranks 4th overall in seniority in the Senate, and chairs the Transportation committee. Needless to say, her district is very safe. While it originally included a small part of Virginia Beach, it instead has part of Portsmouth now to accompany its sections in Norfolk and Chesapeake, where it dips down to take in the heavily African-American areas of that city.

Before – Dem avg.: 72.3%, Obama: 77.4%

After – Dem avg.: 70.7%, Obama: 75.5, Race: 37.1% W, 51.1% B, 5.7% H, 2.9% A

VA-6 (Teal) – DEM Incumbent, Lean DEM

Another swing district that needed to be aided. Originally, VA-6, which includes the entire Eastern Shore, crossed the Chesapeake Bay and included Mathews County (now in VA-3) while also jutting down into Norfolk, where incumbent Ralph Northam lives, and Virginia Beach. However, the district has been shifted to remove the very red Mathews Co., and now incorporates the eastern half of Hampton city while removing some redder areas of Norfolk from it. Hopefully, Northam lives in the part of Norfolk in the district. If not, it could be altered slightly without affecting its numbers much to do so.

Before – Dem avg.: 50.5%, Obama: 53.5%

After – Dem avg.: 53.8%, Obama: 57.7%, Race: 55.7% W, 30.6% B, 7.4% H, 2.8% A

VA-7 (Orange) – GOP Incumbent, Lean DEM/Toss-up, DEM PICK-UP +1

Drawn to include only Virginia Beach still, this district has been designed to take in all the Dem-leaning and Dem-heavy parts of the biggest city in Virginia. In doing this, the diverse district has become a toss-up or possible Democratic pick-up, and given the shifting demographics here, it should continue moving in a blue direction. It’s not clear if the incumbent, Frank Wagner, lives in this part of Virginia Beach, but I’m going to guess he does.

Before – Dem avg.: 46.3%, Obama: 49.6%

After – Dem avg.: 51.4%, Obama: 56.4%, Race: 55.5% W, 24.6% B, 7.9% H, 7.7% A

VA-8 (Slate Blue) – GOP Incumbent, Safe GOP

VA-8 takes up most of the rest of Virginia Beach, particularly the wealthiest areas and the areas to the east, south, and southwest of the Naval Air Station Oceana with a large military presence.

Before – Dem avg.: 42.7%, Obama: 44.5%

After – Dem avg.: 41%, Obama: 40.7%, Race: 76.5% W, 10.3% B, 5.1% H, 5% A

VA-14 (Olive Green) – GOP Incumbent, Safe GOP

This district stretches into the edge of Virginia Beach, contains almost all of Chesapeake as well as the southern half of Suffolk, and a little part of Isle of Wight County. It is possible that if the aforementioned Fred Quayle wants to run again, he could move a little south from where (I’m assuming based on the old VA-13 and Wikipedia) he lives in upper Suffolk down into VA-14 and challenge incumbent Harry Blevins. It’s possible that VA-14 could be drawn to include both, forcing a primary.

Before – Dem avg.: 40.7%, Obama: 41.9%

After – Dem avg.: 40.1%, Obama: 39.7%, Race: 69.9% W, 20.2% B, 4.1% H, 2.9% A

Moving north in the direction of the Northern Neck region, we have VA-3 and 28.

VA-3 (Purple) – GOP Incumbent, Safe GOP

Home to Minority Leader Tommy Norment, this district clearly had to protected in a sense, and definitely needed to include his home in James City County. Most of the county is still in this district so hopefully he doesn’t live right next to Williamsburg. By stealing Williamsburg and the rest of Newport News for VA-1, the district had to move north. At the same time, by way of water contiguity I was able to include the incredibly red city of Poqouson in the district as well, helping out VA-1 as well.

Before – Dem avg.: 44.6%, Obama: 46.4%

After – Dem avg.: 36.5%, Obama: 35.6%, Race: 81.9% W, 10% B, 3% H, 2.4% A

VA-28 (White) – GOP Incumbent, Safe GOP

You can see on other maps on here that VA-28 stretches up around Fredericksburg into Stafford and Spotsylvania Counties. However, most of the district covers the rest of the Northern Neck area. While not unbelievably red, it would take a conservative Democrat to have a chance here.

Before – Dem avg.: 43.2%, Obama: 46.1%

After – Dem avg.: 42.3%, Obama: 44.3%, Race: 71.2% W, 21.2% B, 4% H, 1.2% A

The rest of the area above Southside and moving towards NoVA needs to be covered – districts 24, 25, 26, 27, 4, and 13-so here’s a picture:

VA-24 (Purple) – GOP Incumbent, Safe GOP

Bland, conservative district where part of my family is from, represented by Emmett Hanger. He’s a staunch conservative but willing enough to talk to the other side that he faced a major primary challenge in 2007, holding on in a close one.

Before – Dem avg.: 36.4%, Obama: 37.7%

After – Dem avg.: 33.6%, Obama: 35.1%, Race: 89.9% W, 4.7% B, 3.3% H

VA-25 (Pink) – DEM Incumbent, Likely DEM

The district of failed 2009 gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds, the district has been altered slightly to keep Deeds’ home of Bath County in the western part but loses trending-red Alleghany and Covington city within it. Lexington has been added from VA-24 with its college population, and the district now fully encompasses Albemarle County, which is generally trending blue, and of course the best little city on Earth, Charlottesville (UVA graduate so I’m biased).

Before – Dem avg.: 56.9%, Obama: 59.3%

After – Dem avg.: 56.7%, Obama: 59.5%, Race: 77.8% W, 11.4% B, 4.5% H, 3.9% A

VA-26 (Gray) – GOP Incumbent, Safe GOP

The only notable thing about this district is that it had to keep Harrisonburg to appease incumbent Mark Obenshain. I’m from Harrisonburg originally and it is painful to be have my hometown represented by one of the probably two most conservative members of the Senate. If you’re a Republican and you want a crazy bill to be sponsored, call up Mr. Obenshain. He’s a nice guy but definitely not politically desirable in any way.

Before – Dem avg.: 37.6%, Obama: 41.5%

After – Dem avg.: 36.8%, Obama: 40.7%, Race: 85% W, 3.6% B, 8.1% H, 1.5% A

VA-27 (Spring Green) – GOP Incumbent, Safe GOP

Another fairly solid GOP district that dips into part of Prince William County to take in some of the red areas still on the outer part of that county in NoVA.

Before – Dem avg.: 41.1%, Obama: 43.3%

After – Dem avg.: 39.9%, Obama: 42.2%, Race: 81.1% W, 9% B, 5.6% H, 1.7% A

VA-4 (Red) – GOP Incumbent, Safe GOP

And yet another solid GOP district.

Before – Dem avg.: 38.3%, Obama: 39.8%

After – Dem avg.: 38.7%, Obama: 40.7%, Race: 78.3% W, 12.9% B, 4.9% H, 1.4% A

VA-13 (Purplish Pink) – Open Seat, Likely GOP (for now)

Having more or less seen a doubling of its total population in the last ten years, Loudon County presents a great challenge to redistricting. The eastern half of the county is more liberal and more urban, and is where most of the growth has occurred. However, growth has happened everywhere in the county to some degree, with the western and northern parts of the county still more GOP-flavored. Interestingly, the southwest and middle of the southern part of the county are bluer. Anyway, by getting rid of VA-13 in the Tidewater, I was able to create a new district in NoVA that stretches from Loudon and Prince William Counties over to Winchester at the top of the Shenandoah Valley. While this district is currently more Republican, it is possible that continued growth in Loudon could make the district more and more competitive. It is my hope that the district will eventually become a swing district where the Dems can make a play; in a sense, it is something of an anti-dummymander.

Before – old district in the Tidewater

After – Dem avg.: 43.5%, Obama: 46.5%, Race: 73.2% W, 7.9% B, 9.1% H, 6.7% A

Before moving into NoVA directly, we need to cover VA-17:

VA-17 (Black) – DEM Incumbent, Safe DEM (considering he has been in office awhile)

This district may not be realistic because of its narrowness. However, the current VA-17 has a Democratic incumbent, Edd Houck, in a fairly red district who needs to have much better numbers. Thus, the new district includes all of Fredericksburg now, and stretches from its bottom in Spotsylvania, VA (where Houck lives), to its top in Prince William County. This drastically alters the old district Houck was in, which President Obama lost by 10 points and was 75% white or so, to a new one that is not far away from being simply white-plurality and Obama won by 13 points.

Before – Dem avg.: 42.5%, Obama: 45.5%

After – Dem avg.: 51%, Obama: 56.5%, Race: 55.1% W, 24.2% B, 12.5% H, 4.2% A

Northern Virginia is the last task at hand. Currently, every district in this region is held by a Democrat, so the project is very much to shore up some districts.

The southern half of NoVA:

The northern half of NoVA:

VA-29 (Sea Green) – DEM Incumbent/Possibly Open, Lean/Likely DEM

Chuck Colgan, the incumbent, is the Senate Pro Tempore, and is 84 years old. He wanted to retire before the 2007 election but Governor Tim Kaine coaxed him to hang around. It seems likely that he is waiting to see what his district looks like before announcing his retirement. Via Johnny Longtorso, the former mayor of Manassas, a popular Republican, is probably waiting for him to retire. Given this information, I have redrawn VA-29, which had way too many people due to the explosive growth in Prince William County, to avoid keeping Manassas and Manassas Park. It may be a stretch (mainly because of what VA-34 looks like) but I thought I would give it a shot. By the way, this district becomes a majority-minority district with a white plurality.

Before – Dem avg.: 46.7%, Obama: 52.4%

After – Dem avg.: 51.2%, Obama: 58%, Race: 47% W, 19.4% B, 21.7% H, 8% A

VA-30 (Gray) – Open, Safe DEM

Given that incumbent Patsy Ticer has announced that she will not run for another term, this district ought to see heavy competition for the Democratic nod considering it is essentially a sure-thing for Democrats. So really, you could draw this district in a variety of ways because she’s out. I drew it to not include Alexandria, which it had before, and to only include Arlington and Fairfax Counties. It also remains a slightly minority-majority district with a white plurality.

Before – Dem avg.: 67.7%, Obama: 69.5%

After – Dem avg.: 65.8%, Obama: 66.9%, Race: 49.7% W, 9.5% B, 24.6% H, 13.2% A

VA-31 (Khaki) – DEM Incumbent, Safe DEM

Another relative given for the Democrats, I drew Falls Church out of this district, which makes it less Democratic but still pretty solidly blue.

Before – Dem avg.: 68.4%, Obama: 68.8%

After – Dem avg.: 61.2%, Obama: 62.1%, Race: 70.2% W, 4.6% B, 9% H, 13% A

VA-32 (Orange Red) – DEM Incumbent, Likely DEM

This district snakes into Fairfax to pick up some bluer areas closer to Arlington while taking up part of Loudon County. It’s possible that this district would need to be redrawn because I have no clue where in Fairfax incumbent Janet Howell lives. Then again, a couple could probably switch districts.

Before – Dem avg.: 57.1%, Obama: 60.2%

After – Dem avg.: 54.3%, Obama: 58.7%, Race: 55.4% W, 7.8% B, 10.2% H, 22.8% A

VA-33 (Royal Blue) – DEM Incumbent, Likely DEM

With its new shape, this district becomes more solidly blue, shoring up incumbent Mark Herring’s position.

Before – Dem avg.: 49.6%, Obama: 55.4%

After – Dem avg.: 51.3%, Obama: 57.2%, Race: 57.2% W, 7.8% B, 18.6% H, 13% A

VA-34 (Green) – DEM Incumbent, Likely DEM

Chap Petersen, who represents this district, is probably one of the most well-known State Senators in Virginia and is probably bound for higher office some day. He lives in Fairfax City, and this district has been drawn to take that in and snake out to pick up the cities of Manassas and Manassas City. In the process, it becomes a majority-minority district with a white plurality.

Before – Dem avg.: 54.4%, Obama: 57.4%

After – Dem avg.: 51.6%, Obama: 58.5%, Race: 47.9% W, 10.5% B, 22.6% H, 15.5% A

VA-35 (Purple) – DEM Incumbent, Safe DEM

Senate Majority Leader Dick Saslaw occupies this seat, meaning that it will probably stay very blue. It stretches from the western part of Alexandria around the VA-30 to take in Falls Church, remaining a majority-minority district with a white plurality.

Before – Dem avg.: 61.8%, Obama: 65.3%

After – Dem avg.: 63.6%, Obama: 66.9%, Race: 46.8% W, 15.4% B, 20.1% H, 14.5% A

VA-36 (Gold) – DEM Incumbent, Likely DEM

This district loses Dem-heavy areas to VA-17 and VA-39, but is still pretty solidly blue.

Before – Dem avg.: 57.8%, Obama: 63.9%

After – Dem avg.: 53.9%, Obama: 58.5%, Race: 51.6% W, 16.4% B, 16.5% H, 11.8% A

VA-37 (Dodger Blue) – DEM Incumbent, Leans/Likely DEM

This district winds around Fairfax, from Burke (where just-elected-in-a-special-election incumbent Dave Marsden lives), to part of Centreville, making it bluer.

Before – Dem avg.: 51.3%, Obama: 56.2%

After – Dem avg.: 53.6%, Obama: 57.1%, Race: 60.3% W, 5% B, 12.1% H, 19.2% A

VA-39 (White) – DEM Incumbent, Safe DEM

Incumbent George Barker only won in 2007 in his first race by 151 votes so making his district bluer was very important. In the process, given its original position, it became much bluer, mainly due to taking parts of VA-36.

Before – Dem avg.: 51.8%, Obama: 55.9%

After – Dem avg.: 58.9%, Obama: 61.5%, Race: 59.8% W, 11.9% B, 13.9% H, 11.2% A

—

And there it is, folks. Hopefully the Democrats can pick up VA-7 and VA-10 to take two extra seats in this set up to increase their majority to 24-16. And in the long run, knowing that eventually VA-38 will be lost to the GOP, it’s nice that VA-13 is hopefully going to continue trending towards being very much a toss-up district.

Today’s Census data dump is three slow-growth northern states: Massachusetts, Michigan, and New Hampshire. Massachusetts is set to lose one seat (from 10 down to 9), meaning its new target is 727,514 (up from about 634K in 2000). Interestingly, the growth among all the districts was pretty consistent, with only about 20,000 difference between the state’s largest and smallest districts. Estimates over the decade had shown Boston losing population, but in the final count it did eke out a small gain.

With no clear loser on the population front among the districts, that makes the question of who draws the shortest redistricting straw even more complicated… unless someone reverses course and decides to retire, either to challenge Scott Brown (most likely Mike Capuano or Stephen Lynch) or to call it a career (John Olver). Olver’s 1st did wind up being the smallest by a small margin, so the most talked-about mashup of the 1st and 2nd may well happen; alternatively, based on seniority the axe could fall on the delegation’s newest member, William Keating. At any rate, with Dems firmly in charge of the process, don’t look for any of these districts to lose their bluish hues; the main question is who gets left without his musical chair.

When it was revealed in December that Michigan was the only state out of 50 that actually lost population since 2000, it was clear that the state’s urban districts were in a world of hurt… but I have to admit I’m still surprised at the way that Detroit has utterly cratered. The Motor City, at one point the 4th largest city in America, is now down to 15th, with a population of 713,777 (now smaller than johnny-come-latelies like Columbus, Austin, and Charlotte). The 13th may be the 2nd least populous district in the country at this point (after WY-AL). I briefly had to wonder whether we might actually see Detroit turned into one CD, mostly contiguous with the city boundaries (since it’s now about the same population as an ideal district), but I can’t imagine that the Obama administration’s DOJ would allow the state GOP (which controls the redistricting trifecta) to pack only one overwhelmingly African-American VRA district when the population is there to support two, albeit two that will have to reach significantly into the suburbs now.

Michigan’s current target is 705,974 (based on the drop to 14 from 15 seats), up from about 663K in 2000. That means that six of its districts (the Upper Peninsula-based 1st, the Flint-and-Saginaw 5th, and the 9th and 12th in Detroit’s northern suburbs, in addition to the 13th and 14th) outright lost population over the decade. With the 9th and 12th also big losers, and with the VRA looming over the 13th and 14th, this all seems to confirm what most people are expecting, that Gary Peters and Sandy Levin are going to get much better acquainted with each other in a Dem primary. If you go further out into the districts that contain Detroit’s exurbs (the GOP-held 8th and 10th), those are the two districts in the state that actually need to shed some population.

These two district states are really drama-free, and New Hampshire might be the least dramatic of all. The two districts in the state stayed remarkably balanced (as they always do… the state has had two districts since the 1800s, with the boundaries rarely moving much), to the extent that the 1st needs to pick up only 254 people from the 2nd. I’ll leave it to the good folks in comments to argue over which ward in Hooksett should be the one that gets moved. (New Hampshire’s target was 658,235, up from 618K in 2000.)

Since the GOP controls redistricting in Indiana, it seems likely that Democrats will be forced down to two congressional districts in the new plan for the state (fortunately, Mitch Daniels seems like he won’t do anything too crazy with redistricting, so we’re unlikely to see any Indy-to-Gary Democratic vote dumps). This is what a hypothetical Democratic map of Indiana would look like.

1st District (blue): Safe D

Basically the same as it is now.

2nd District (green): Safe D

Takes in the Democratic parts of Fort Wayne and loses some of the more conservative parts of the current district. I believe it should be safely democratic now.

3rd District (purple): Safe R

All the Republican parts of Northern Indiana.

4th District (red): Safe R

Indy suburbs. These areas showed some of the strongest swings towards Obama in 2008 of anywhere in the state, meaning that they might becoming competitive in the future, but for now this is deep red country.

5th District (yellow): Safe R

6th District (teal): Safe R

This was once Democratic territory, but it has trended Republican to the point where I don’t see it being competitive for any Democrat.

7th District (gray): Safe D

Gets a couple points more Republican in order to help the 8th, but still safe for Andre Carson.

8th District (slate blue): Likely D

This district includes liberal Bloomington, Democratic leaning Delaware and Madison counties, and some African-American parts of eastern Marion county. The non-Marion parts of the district voted 57% for Obama, and the precincts in Marion county (about 100K people) are 70-80% Democratic, so overall it should have a pretty strong Democratic lean. Still, it might be competitive in a great Republican year (Dan Coats narrowly won here, I believe).

9th District (light blue): Tossup/Lean D?

This district voted 52% for Obama, which would normally make it a tossup district. However, this is an area where conservative Democrats do very well, which is why this may be a Lean D district in practice. If Brad Ellsworth were to run here again I suspect he would win pretty easily.

Public Policy Polling (3/18-20, “Michigan voters,” no trendlines):

Virg Bernero (D): 47

Rick Snyder (R): 45

Undecided: 8

^{(MoE: ±4.4%)}

These “do-over” questions from Public Policy Polling are, of course, off in hypothetical-land and don’t have an immediate application (other than to encourage high-information partisan types like us to find a convenient desk and start pounding our heads on it). But they are certainly remarkable, and starting to put together, brick by brick, a real picture of the pendulum swinging back incredibly rapidly among fickle midwestern swing voters. Today, it’s Michigan’s turn, where they find that if the 2010 gubernatorial election were re-done, Democratic mayor of Lansing Virg Bernero would edge out Rick Snyder.

In a way, that’s even more startling reversal of fortune than PPP’s previous results in Wisconsin and Ohio, as Snyder ran as a centrist and superficially reasonable guy, instead of an out-and-proud jackass like John Kasich and Scott Walker, and wound up winning by 18 points instead of squeaking by. (Although the composition of the electorate seems to have changed a lot since 2010, suggesting a lot of Democrats sat on their hands that year and are now asking themselves why… PPP’s electorate went only 49-43 for Snyder, with 8% didn’t vote/don’t remember.)

The problem for Snyder is that he isn’t governing the way he campaigned; 36% are now saying he’s “too conservative,” and that has dragged his overall approval rate down to 33/50… one of the shortest honeymoons ever, as now he’s in almost as bad a shape as Jennifer Granholm was when she left office. Snyder’s on the wrong end of public opinion on all the prominent policy questions: there’s 49/37 support for a constitutional amendment guaranteeing collective bargaining rights, 59/32 support for collective bargaining for public employees, and 32/50 opposition for Snyder’s probably-unconstitutional attempt to take over and dismantle faltering municipalities. The one bit of good news that Snyder can take away from this: he’s recall-eligible after only six months in office, but voters are leaning against that, with 38% in support and 49% against.

Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos & SEIU (3/17-20, Democratic primary voters, no trendlines):

Chris Murphy (D): 40

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 38

Undecided: 21

^{(MoE: ±4.9%)}

Fifth CD Rep. Chris Murphy holds a narrow lead over former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz in the Democratic primary-which won’t be held for more than a year, and which could feature additional candidates (a few other people are poking their noses around the race). Murphy has a nine-point lead with men, but Bysiewicz’s advantage with women is just three points. She does win African Americans by a large margin, but they only make up 11% of the primary electorate in our sample. The biggest difference between the candidates is in their favorables: Murphy scores an impressive 51-14 among Democrats, while Bysiewicz is at 45-27.

Even though no Republicans have officially declared their candidacies yet, we tested the general election (registered voters) as well:

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 44

Mark Boughton (R): 34

Undecided: 22

Chris Murphy (D): 52

Mark Boughton (R): 29

Undecided: 19

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 45

Michael Fedele (R): 35

Undecided: 20

Chris Murphy (D): 51

Michael Fedele (R): 29

Undecided: 20

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 45

Scott Frantz (R): 30

Undecided: 24

Chris Murphy (D): 51

Scott Frantz (R): 27

Undecided: 22

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 50

Linda McMahon (R): 39

Undecided: 12

Chris Murphy (D): 54

Linda McMahon (R): 38

Undecided: 9

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 42

Rob Simmons (R): 39

Undecided: 19

Chris Murphy (D): 49

Rob Simmons (R): 34

Undecided: 18

^{(MoE: ±3.4%)}

If I were Susan Bysiewicz, I’d be pretty pleased with these numbers-even the most popular Republicans can’t crawl their way into the 40s. But if I were Chris Murphy, I’d be even more stoked, and it’s not hard to see why: He crushes the nobodies by twenty-plus-point margins, bodyslams Linda McMahon by sixteen and hold even the semi-popular Rob Simmons to a fifteen point spread. Again, the difference lies in the favorables: Statewide, all voters like Murphy by a 40-27 spread. Bysiewicz, on the other hand, is under water at 31-41. It’s a testament to how weak Republicans are in Connecticut that they do so poorly against her, with only Simmons making the race even appear to be competitive.

And that’s just the nature of the state. Barack Obama’s job approval here is a healthy 55-39, while freshman Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal is at 53-32. New Dem Gov. Dan Malloy doesn’t fare as well, but his 39-47 rating is almost certainly due to the fact that he’s actually trying to pass a responsible budget. You’ll also be pleased to know that Joe Lieberman (if you still remember who he is) has sunk all the way to a 29-58 job approval score, and he’s negative with Democrats, independents, and Republicans (in order of descending disgust).

I’m an avowed Chris Murphy partisan, but I’m a Democrat first and always, and I’m just glad to see that the Republicans will have an incredibly hard time making this race competitive. 2010 was their high-water mark, and even then, despite Linda McMahon’s zillions, they still lost by twelve points. It’s difficult to imagine them doing better in 2012.

In my previous Indiana diary, I attempted to create an 8-1 map in Indiana. It had the potential to be a dummymander, trying to take out both Peter Visclosky and Joe Donnelly. You can view that map here:

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

For this Indiana map, I tried to be much more reasonable, creating a heavy Democratic district that stretches from Gary to South Bend taking in Michigan City while taking out Donnelly in the process. The rest of the districts stay close to their current PVI, and should remain in the hands of the party that currently holds that district.

1st District: Current Rep: Peter Visclosky (D)

Racial breakdown: 59 W    22 B    14 H    2 A

Partisan lean: Safe D

This district is the Democratic vote sink in Northern Indiana. It takes in the heavy African-American areas in Lake County, swings over to pick up Michigan City, and finishes in South Bend. Donnelly could mount a primary challenge against Visclosky, but Visclosky has the more liberal record, and I would favor Visclosky to win that race.

2nd District: Current Rep: Joe Donnelly (D)

Racial breakdown: 86 W    3 B    9 H     1 A

Partisan lean: Safe R

I see no reason Republicans shouldn’t take over this district easily. All the Democratic areas are removed from the district, and Republican leaning Elkhart County is added to the district.

3rd District: Current Rep: Marlin Stutzman (R)

Racial breakdown: 86 W    6 B    5 H     2 A

Partisan lean: Safe R

Not much to see here, Stutzman keeps his Ft. Wayne based.

4th District: Current Rep: Todd Rokita (R)

Racial breakdown: 88 W    4 B    5 H    3 A

Partisan lean: Safe R

The 4th is cleaned up a little bit, but should remain safely in the Republican column. The GOP heavy Indianapolis suburbs located in this district overwhelm Democratic votes in West Lafayette and Kokomo.

5th District: Current Rep: Dan Burton (R)

Racial breakdown: 86 W   6 B   4 H   3 A

Partisan lean: Safe R

The district is centered on the heavy Republican suburbs of Indianapolis. No problem for Burton.

6th District: Current Rep: Mike Pence (R)

Racial breakdown: 92 W   2 B    2 H   2 A

Partisan lean: Safe R

This district shifts south to take in heavy Republican Morgan and Johnson counties and also eats up liberal precincts in Bloomington. Will stay in the GOP column.

7th District: Current Rep: Andre Carson (D)

Racial breakdown: 55 W   31 B    11 H  2 A

Partisan lean: Safe D

NO CHANGE! (A Twilight Zone reference for those of you under 30). Carson’s Indianapolis centered district is almost identical to the current district.

8th District: Current Rep: Larry Buschon (R)

Racial breakdown: 92 W    4 B    3 H   1 A

Partisan lean: Lean R is Ellsworth runs, Safe R if not.

This district stays very similar to the current district as well. Ellsworth is probably the only Democrat who could win here, but it would have to be an exceptional year for him to pull it off.

9th District: Current Rep: Todd Young (R)

Racial Breakdown: 93 W   2 B   3 H   1 A

Partisan lean: Safe R

By taking Bloomington out of this district, Young is now safe for as long as he wants to be in Congress. This is one of the most rural districts in Indiana.

• MO-Sen: Well, it looks like Claire McCaskill has been trying to make me look like an idiot. After this site’s repeated smack-downs of the “airplane” story as Politico-fueled b.s., it turns out that there is quite a bit more to it: McCaskill now says she owes $287,000 in unpaid property taxes on the plane. That’s quite a bit. Of course, she says she’s paying them, and she’s also having her husband sell the plane – and she further notes that this problem only came to light because she reviewed the plane’s records herself. But how do you forget to pay over a quarter mil in taxes? Man.

In other MO-Sen news, former state GOP chair Ann Wagner was in DC last week meeting with the NRSC about her bid. She still claims her first preference is to run for Senate, but based on the quotes in Roll Call’s piece, it’s sounding more and more like Rep. Todd Akin (R) will get in and she’ll run for his seat. Of course, who knows what MO-02 will look like in a few months….

• PA-Sen: The National Journal’s Alex Roarty says that Ed Stack, longtime CEO of Dick’s Sporting Goods and Pittsburgh native, is thinking about seeking the GOP nomination to challenge Sen. Bob Casey. Stack is, of course, very rich.

• ND-Gov: Horse’s mouth: Ex-Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) is leaving the door just slightly ajar to a gubernatorial run, saying “I am not excluding anything nor am I focusing on politics right now.” But he repeatedly told the Fargo-Moorhead Forum that he was concentrating on his new legal/lobbying job at Alston & Bird in DC.

• WV-Gov: SoS Natalie Tennant released a poll from GQR showing acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin leading the Dem primary field with 31, but with herself just behind at 27. Treasurer John Perdue is at 14, while state House Speaker Rick Thompson and state Sen. Jeff Kessler take 5 apiece.

• CA-36: Debra Bowen got her first endorsement from a member of Congress: Rep. Judy Chu, who filled Hilda Solis’s 32nd CD seat when the latter became Secretary of Labor. Several other local officials have also endorsed. Also of note: The Courage Campaign is holding a candidate forum on Thursday, and if you click the link, you can submit a question.

• IA-03: Longtime SSPer (and blogger in her own right) desmoinesdem points out that Nancy Pelosi is coming to Iowa to do some fundraisers with Rep. Leonard Boswell, including one at the home of 2010 Dem Senate nominee Roxanne Conlin. Is this a suggestion to Christie Vilsack that perhaps she ought not run?

• KS-04: One political scientist is calling him “the congressman from Koch” – and you’ll probably want to as well. Mike Pompeo, a loathsome man hated by many fellow Republicans, took in $80K in donations from Koch employees, was supported by the Koch front group Americans for Prosperity, and, for good measure, hired a Koch Industries attorney as his chief of staff. (Or more like, David and Charles installed a fixer to make sure their new paisan did as he was told.) Pompeo’s been delivering: He’s promoting legislation to defund a new consumer complaints database, and an EPA catalog of greenhouse-gas polluters. Personally, I think this dickbag could be very vulnerable to a GOP primary.

• NY-26: Crazy Jack Davis and David Bellavia both filed signatures to appear on the ballot as independents – but of course, now the fun can truly begin. If you weren’t already aware, New York has just about the most draconian requirements for petitions in the land – they can be invalidated for as little as using the wrong color ink. I’d be pretty surprised if the GOP didn’t try to nuke both of these guys from orbit, though Davis might be invulnerable, since he said he submitted over 12,000 petitions. Bellavia’s camp would only say that they submitted “more” than the required 3,500. Unless he has at least double that number, once Christian Szell starts asking “Is it safe?”, it’s a good bet that Bellavia won’t survive scrutiny.

• OR-01: Kari Chisholm of Blue Oregon has an excellent roundup of recent OR-01 stories, so I’m going to recommend you click through for his summaries and links. Two items of note: Republican state Sen. Bruce Starr says he won’t challenge Rep. David Wu, and Wu is apparently starting to actively fundraise again, with an event this week in Portland. I’ve gotta ask: Who the heck would want to show up to such a thing?

• AZ-St. Sen.: A recall effort is underway against notorious Republican state Sen. Russell Pearce, the architect of Arizona’s infamous anti-immigrant legislation known as SB1070. The leader of the best-organized group claims they have thousands of signatures and are meeting their goals, but they aren’t releasing any actual numbers.

• NYC-Mayor: Another Republican campaign, another fortune embezzled. Mike Bloomberg hired John Haggerty to forklift over a million bucks to the state’s Independence Party, but instead, Haggerty laundered most of the cash through a consulting firm he owned and spent $750K on a home in Queens. Now a judge says that the evidence of Haggerty’s guilt is “overwhelming.” Can’t say I feel too bad for Bloombo! (Other recent similar incidents involved Rep. Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey and ex-Rep. Chris Shays of Connecticut.)

• California: California Republicans are doing their best to ruin whatever advantages the state’s new top-two primary system might give them – on purpose. While the top-two might free more moderate GOPers from the ultra-conservative stranglehold on primaries, the activist base wants none of that. Starting in 2014, the party will conduct “pre-primaries” by mail and award their formal endorsement to whoever wins those beauty contests. These people will get assistance from the state party and will also be listed as the “official” GOP candidate for that race. David Atkins thinks, though, that this is a feature, not a bug: The CA Republican Party needs just 1/3 of the members of one of the chamber of the state legislature to maintain California’s absolutely dysfunctional system of state governance, and this helps ensure that they elect uncompromising crazies to the few seats they do win – which is all they require.

Redistricting Roundup:

• California: Good news: The Republican firm that was a finalist to serve as the redistricting commission’s mapping consultant was unanimously rejected in favor of an Oakland company called Q2 Data and Research. And while Gibson Dunn & Crutcher, which was selected as the panel’s law firm, does have some well-connected Republican partners in their DC office (like Ted Olson and Miguel Estrada), it’s big enough that you’ll probably find the entire gamut from good to evil working under their umbrella (so let’s hope we get “good”).

• Louisiana: This Times-Picayune piece details the backroom wrangling going on over Louisiana’s congressional map, which painfully has to shrink from seven to six seats. Scroll down to that grey call-out box on the left for links to actual maps. I believe we linked the Gallot maps before, but the Kostelka and Jackson maps should be new. (You’ll find them at the end of some very long PDFs.) I note that of these plans seem to keep one Dem district by marrying New Orleans with Baton Rouge.

• New Jersey: NJ legislators are being weirdly good about not sharing their proposed state maps with the public, but folks who have seen them are chatting up reporters. One such person, Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray, thinks that the GOP is running afoul of the edicts set by commission boss Alan Rosenthal, and could get in trouble for their attempts to over-reach.

Illinois is losing one congressional district this year – going from 19 to 18.  I have created a map that takes the current map with a delegation of 11 Republicans and 8 Democrats to one with 12 Democratic seats and 6 Republican ones.  I consider this an ambitious gerrymander favoring the Democrats, but one that is realistic and keeps a few things in mind:

1.) Michael Madigan is in charge and he will look out for his interests first.  He also will never do a dummymander.

2.) The Democratic incumbents also have input and their interests will be considered.  None of them will want their district lines to change much and all want their Democratic primary bases to be kept intact.  They also don’t want to be thrown from safe seats to possibly competitive ones.

3.) African Americans will insist on maintaining their three black majority districts, no matter how much population they have lost in the city.  The Hispanics will want at least one – two may be forced by the courts – but Madigan and his allies will likely push for one Hispanic district to maintain Lipinski’s seat.  Also, we have seen in the City of Chicago that Hispanic majority seats often go to white incumbents who control the Democratic machine.  Alderman Ed Burke’s 14th ward is 88% Hispanic, Madigan’s 13th ward is 72% Hispanic and just elected somebody named “Marty Quinn” to be Alderman.  

4.) Madigan will go after Freshman GOP before those with more seniority.  Not only are they easier targets, but having seniority on both sides of the aisle is good for Illinois.

Below is each new district with data and analysis.  I have calculated the results from the 2010 Senate race (Kirk v. Giannoulias) and from the 2004 Presidential race (Bush v. Kerry – I know, old).  I used the 2010 Senate race rather than the Governor’s race because it is on the Federal level, and to use data against moderate Republican.  I did not calculate data from the 2008 election, because Obama’s landslide was far too big  and unevenly distributed in Illinois (I feel Chicagoland was much more skewed than Downstate).  The 2010 numbers are exact (to the precinct) except for Tazewell, Marion, Moultrie, and Menard Counties, which I allocated votes by ratio of population in each district.  The same goes for 2004 numbers, except I had to extrapolate the precinct data for Lake and Will counties from 2010 data.

For now, here are three tables with election data, racial population data, and VAP data.  I will add more analysis in the next few days.

District  Kirk   Alexi    Bush   Kerry    PVI

1        24.80% 75.20% 23.00% 77.00% D+30

2        25.26% 74.74% 26.39% 73.61% D+28

3        48.14% 51.86% 44.25% 55.75% D+8

4        26.57% 73.43% 26.90% 73.10% D+28

5        47.72% 52.28% 41.53% 58.47% D+10

6        63.33% 36.67% 57.66% 42.34% R+6

7        18.61% 81.39% 15.81% 84.19% D+37

8        53.71% 46.29% 46.66% 53.34% D+4

9        47.77% 52.23% 39.12% 60.88% D+11

10       47.75% 52.25% 39.70% 60.30% D+11

11       68.75% 31.25% 60.55% 39.45% R+10

12       53.24% 46.76% 47.02% 52.98% D+4

13       49.12% 50.88% 45.12% 54.88% D+7

14       64.94% 35.06% 59.55% 40.45% R+8

15       68.33% 31.67% 59.68% 40.32% R+10

16       67.03% 32.97% 57.86% 42.14% R+8

17       56.61% 43.39% 46.84% 53.16% D+3

18       68.31% 31.69% 60.39% 39.61% R+10

ALL

District  White  Black  Hispanic  Asian

1        35.5%   52.7%   8.2%   2.0%

2        31.4%   52.8%   13.4%   0.8%

3        59.5%   6.1%   27.7%   5.4%

4        18.7%   4.1%   73.3%   2.9%

5        65.1%   2.2%   24.4%   6.7%

6        75.4%   3.7%   8.8%   10.3%

7        27.6%   54.5%   12.2%   4.1%

8        48.6%   8.7%   31.5%   9.1%

9        67.4%   7.8%   10.6%   12.0%

10       72.2%   3.4%   10.9%   11.5%

11       92.7%   3.2%   2.0%   0.8%

12       77.5%   16.6%   2.8%   1.1%

13       53.0%   12.7%   27.3%   5.0%

14       82.5%   1.6%   11.4%   3.2%

15       85.4%   6.8%   3.1%   2.9%

16       88.6%   2.6%   6.3%   1.1%

17       77.9%   12.4%   5.8%   1.5%

18       86.7%   5.4%   4.8%   1.6%

VAP

District  White  Black  Hispanic  Asian

1        38.0%   51.7%   6.9%   2.2%

2        34.5%   51.8%   11.7%   0.8%

3        64.0%   5.9%   23.5%   5.7%

4        23.2%   4.1%   68.3%   3.4%

5        69.1%   2.0%   20.9%   6.8%

6        77.7%   3.5%   7.5%   10.2%

7        31.1%   51.8%   11.0%   4.8%

8        54.1%   8.1%   26.9%   9.4%

9        69.2%   7.8%   9.3%   12.1%

10       74.7%   3.3%   9.3%   11.2%

11       93.5%   3.2%   1.7%   0.8%

12       80.0%   15.3%   2.4%   1.1%

13       58.3%   12.1%   23.4%   5.0%

14       85.3%   1.4%   9.4%   3.1%

15       86.7%   6.2%   2.7%   3.2%

16       90.8%   2.4%   4.9%   1.1%

17       81.7%   10.8%   4.6%   1.5%

18       88.7%   5.1%   3.8%   1.5%