Tag: Arizona

Here is Episode 9 of my never-ending redistricting series, in which I cover three states (Alabama, Arizona, and Kentucky) with little in common demographically other than all voting for John McCain.

Previous efforts:

Diary 1: Massachusetts and Texas

Diary 2: Michigan and Nevada

Diary 3: Iowa and Ohio

Diary 4: Georgia and New Jersey

Diary 5: Florida and Louisiana

Diary 6: Pennsylvania and Utah

Diary 7: Illinois and South Carolina

Diary 8: Indiana, Missouri, and Oregon

Jump below!

Note that Arizona was originally intended to share a diary with New York, but the delay in the NY-20 election has forced me to put off a final New York plan (if Tedisco wins, my NY map applies, but if Murphy pulls it out in the final count, I need a do-over).

Alabama

The overriding goals here were clear, and are regardless of which party wins the governor’s mansion in 2010. Either a Republican or Democratic Governor will contend with a legislature controlled by conservative Democrats, and so protecting Rep. Bobby Bright of Montgomery will be Priority #1 (a major flaw in my reasoning here: if Bright loses to a Republican in 2010, a very real possibility, the 2nd will be preserved more or less as-is or made more Republican to accommodate the hypothetical freshman GOPer). Anyway, I assumed Bright survives 2010 and is the big winner from redistricting. As a direct result of protecting Bright, another winner is made clear, Republican Mike Rogers of Anniston (his district was carved to elect a Democrat in 2002 and, well, that didn’t work out, so for the sake of helping Bright, Rogers will get more favorable turf).

The other districts weren’t altered much; Artur Davis’ VRA-protected 7th was made a tad less heavily African-American but should still be about 60% so, keeping it clear from controversy, and the other four seats barely change at all in partisan or racial composition.

District 1 – Jo Bonner (R-Mobile) — heavily Republican Gulf Coast districts stays mostly unchanged.

District 2 – Bobby Bright (D-Montgomery) — again, this map assumes he survives in 2010. Race tracking closely with partisan behavior in this state, the obvious tack was to boost the 2nd’s black population, so I dumped the district’s southernmost counties and anchored it in the eastern half of Alabama’s Black Belt, with the main population band stretching from Selma almost to the Georgia border, adding an arm up in Talladega.

District 3 – Mike Rogers (R-Anniston) — Rogers would now represent the only clear gerrymander in the state, and its lines are, I assure you, only as ugly as they are for a good purpose: I had to connect the heavily Republican counties northeast of Talladega with the heavily Republican counties bordering Florida’s Panhandle, so that meant creating a skinny north-south band along the Georgia line, in counties that were otherwise reserved for Bright. It’s unaesthetic, yes, but it gets the job done, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see legislative Democrats and Republicans agree on a plan like this for the mutual benefit of helping both Bright and Rogers.

District 4 – Robert Aderholt (R-Haleyville) — heavily Republican Appalachia-Tuscaloosa-exurban Birmingham mix.

District 5 – Parker Griffith (D-Huntsville) — as before, it’s socially conservative and mostly white, but with a good bench of local Democrats. Unlike Bright’s district, the 5th couldn’t be shored up much since there are no African-American areas nearby that aren’t necessary to keep the 7th VRA-protected.

District 6 – Spencer Bachus (R-Vestavia Hills) — meant to soak up every possible Republican between Birmingham and Montgomery.

District 7 – Artur Davis’ (D-Birmingham) replacement — Davis is running for Governor in 2010, but whichever Democrat succeeds him will retain a black-majority district anchored in Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and the heavily black counties of western Alabama.

Arizona

The nonpartisan redistricting commission typically seeks to draw districts with geographical communities of interest in mind, and does little or nothing to protect incumbents. This means we shouldn’t expect a plan that explicitly shores up any of the three marginal Democratic districts (the rural 1st, suburban 5th, or mixed urban-rural 8th). While the 2001 plan created a new Hispanic-majority district for the Democrats and a competitive new rural seat (dubbed the 1st), I found that 2011’s map is due for a GOP seat in the suburban/exurban Phoenix area, based in fast-growing Pinal County. Since Arizona will be gaining two seats, the other may be of a less predictable nature, though everyone expects that it, too, will be based in metro Phoenix. My proposed 10th is a mixed Phoenix district with a considerable Hispanic population (one problem: said Hispanic pop. under my plan may be big enough to move the VRA-protected 7th out of majority-Hispanic status, which would be a non-starter).

One thing that made my numbers less-than-perfect was the lack of reliable data on Hopi Reservation population in northern Arizona (Hopi and Navajo areas are kept in separate districts due to traditional tensions between the two tribes). I used rough statistical guesstimates to separate the reservations into the 2nd and 1st, respectively. This, and my lack of certainty regarding the Hispanic percentage in Grijalva’s 7th District in this map, are the two potential demographic issues present here (and note that I used 2007 Census estimates, before 2008 numbers were available, making the data already obsolete).

All those caveats aside, I think the general spirit of Arizona’s next district map is present here:

District 1 – Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Flagstaff) — still rural with the highest Native American population in the state. Personally, as someone who is admittedly ignorant about Hopi/Navajo history, I think it unfortunate that the tribes insist on being separated, since moving the Hopi reservation into this district would put its Native population over 25% and possibly close to 30%, a clear VRA opportunity when coupled with the district’s Hispanic and other minority populations.

District 2 – Trent Franks (R-Glendale) — though it appears rural, this district is a lot more Maricopa County-heavy than one might assume.

District 3 – John Shadegg (R-Phoenix) — Republican neighborhoods of Phoenix and suburban Maricopa County keep Shadegg in the clear, for the near future at least.

District 4 – Ed Pastor (D-Phoenix) — combines the Latino neighborhoods of Phoenix to remain a strong VRA seat.

District 5 – Harry Mitchell (D-Tempe) — as before, this comprises traditionally Republican Phoenix suburbs that are trending the other way with time. In Mitchell’s current 5th, Obama garnered a respectable 47%, though I haven’t a clue how he would have fared in my 5th since my method is so low-tech and crude.

District 6 – Jeff Flake (R-Mesa) — weary though I am of this guy and his precious privileged resolutions, this 6th would stay safe for him.

District 7 – Raúl Grijalva (D-Tucson) — if the Hispanic pop. is under 50-55% in this proposed Maricopa-free iteration (and it may indeed be), then it is worth a reconfiguration, this time using 2008 stats. Regardless how accurate my map may or may not be, the commission will ensure a VRA majority-Hispanic seat for Grijalva.

District 8 – Gabrielle Giffords (D-Tucson) — now very Tucson-dominated and free of Hispanic-majority Santa Cruz County.

The new District 9 – anchored in Pinal County with significant chunks of Maricopa and Pima for a Republican-leaning suburban/exurban seat between Phoenix and Tucson.

The new District 10 – entirely within southwest Maricopa County, possibly Hispanic opportunity (but cannot dilute the Hispanic pop. in District 7, so I question whether the commission would draw something quite like this…I’m a bit more certain of the rough boundaries for a new GOP seat in District 9).

This being a commission-run redistricting process, no incumbents are deliberately protected, and only logic, geography, and racial consideration go into the process. It’s a double-edged sword, really, but makes a private citizen’s map-making simulation much simpler (no gerrymandering to help Congressman X, that is). Other than my possible trespass in District 7, I’m not aware of any probable controversy with boundaries roughly akin to these.

Kentucky

Like Alabama, the process here is likely to be split between the parties, and Democrats are assured a strong hand by holding both the governor’s mansion and the House. Even if redistricting is delayed after the 2011 elections and a Republican is elected Governor, the Democratic House majority seems too large to overcome in a couple cycles, making it likely that Rep. Ben Chandler (D-Versailles) will be protected (and that, of course, assumes he doesn’t run for another office in 2010 or 2011). Making Chandler’s 6th a tad more Democratic for future insurance was the only clear priority of this map, which otherwise leaves lines mostly unaltered.

District 1 – Ed Whitfield (R-Hopkinsville) — expands in area due to lagging population growth, but remains strongly Republican and mostly rural or “small town”.

District 2 – Brett Guthrie (R-Bowling Green) — changes only minimally, remains GOP-friendly with several pockets of urban population and (somewhat outnumbered) Democratic votes.

District 3 – John Yarmuth (D-Louisville) — comprises 99.7% of Jefferson County, and that’s it. Talk about simple!

District 4 – Geoff Davis (R-Hebron) — looks virtually identical to its prior incarnation as an Ohio River-based, heavily GOP district.

District 5 – Hal Rogers (R-Somerset) — heavily rural and Republican, possibly the most socially conservative seat in Kentucky, but drops some traditionally Dem areas for the 6th’s benefit, picking up the slack elsewhere.

District 6 – Ben Chandler (D-Versailles) — McCain won Chandler’s current 6th 55-43 but the incumbent is very popular and is likely unbeatable. Still, he has long held statewide ambitions, and one of these days he will vacate for bigger things, making it a priority for House Democrats and the Governor to shore up the 6th for a future Democratic candidate. Thus, an equestrian-heavy Central Kentucky seat is reconfigured as a Frankfort-Lexington-coal mines district with stronger Dem history. McCain may still have won here, but not with more than 51-53%, making it that much easier for a future Dem to win.

Other states I hope to cover soon include: Colorado, Kansas, Maryland, Mississippi, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. There are some key states (among them, California, Minnesota, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin) that could or will require two maps each based on different hypothetical outcomes regarding seat distribution or partisan control. It isn’t clear what the seat count will be in California, North Carolina, or Washington, and in the other four states, partisan control of redistricting is utterly up in the air between now and after the 2010 elections. So most likely, these states will be those that I cover last.

Since Janet Napolitano went to Obama’s cabinet and McCain announced (repeatedly) that he was running for reelection, Arizona has seemed off the table for us.  This, being followed by Sebelius’s choice to join the cabinet instead of running for Brownback’s seat, certainly but a bad taste in everyone’s mouth.  However, I’m inclined to a never give up attitude, and I think McCain is still very vulnerable, even if it would be an uphill fight.  There’s no room for naivity though.  If we’re going to win, we need a very strong candidate……..  

The Mayor of Phoenix, Phil Gordon

(Credit where credit is due: I’m not the only one who’s thought of this, SE-779 floated this idea as well, so hopefully we’re on to something.)

For those of you that don’t know about Mayor Gordon, he’s bound to be one of the best mayors in the country and a rising star in the Democratic Party, and it shows.  He was elected mayor in 2003 with 72 percent of the vote and again in 2007 with 77 percent.  And Gordon’s not just a big name politician.  The guy’s the real deal.  He’s worked hard and used creative thinking to revitalize down town Phoenix, supported light rail, and launced the Works Progress Advancementproject, the heart of which is a compelling public works project.  The icing on the cake?  Mayor Gordon is on record standing up to Joe Arpaio and for civil rights.  And for all his hard work, Mayor Gordon earns tremendous praise from his constituents and drives the wingnuts insane.

Mayor Gordon is not only a good Democrat, he’s clearly a Better Democrat of the mold that’s shown great promise in the West over the last couple of cycles.  But here’s the rub-by all accounts, he’s interested in running for Governor.  The Arizona governor’s seat was lost to the Republicans when Napolitano went to the cabinet and the Secretary of State took over.  There’s no guarantee we’ll get the seat back, and we already have a top tier candidate for the seat in Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard, who’s also from the city of Phoenix.  The last thing we need is a rough primary between our two top candidates if we’re going to take back the governorship, especially when we could be working on taking down a high profile Republican senator.

McCain’s loss to Barack Obama and his conduct during the course of the campaign hurt him, so much so that it looked like Obama would be competitive in McCain’s homestate at one point.  Early on it looked like McCain would mend fences and work to keep a top challenger out of the running, but now it’s clear that with Napolitano gone he has no intention of doing anything but being a vindictive old man and an obstical in the path of progressive change.  What’s more, if Gordon were to run, he might not find himself facing McCain.  The far right has always had the knives out for the senator.  Former Congressman J.D. Hayworth gets a lot of buzz for a primary challenge.  In 2004, the Club For Growth (which will surely support any McCain challenger in the primary) tried to get Jeff Flake to challenge him.  And there’s always a few extra wingnuts drifting around Arizona like Randy Graff.  Gordon would have a strong advantage over any of these far-right nuts, but even if that dream scenario doesn’t play out he’ll still have a good shot at beating McCain.

Think about it, Arizona, like most of the west, is moving our way.  Obama will compete there in 2012 and would have competed there had McCain not been on the ballot last year.  McCain lost a lot of support among the growing Latino population in the state with his waffling on immigration, a group that Mayor Gordon has been a strong advocate for.  On top of that, McCain is working hard to further erode support among working and middle-class constituents by opposing a popular president’s economic reforms in a time where people are feeling the crunch.  What’s more, McCain has always gotten soft ball opposition in his reelection campaigns, and we’ve seen that he has a tendancy to flash his temper and trend towards self-destruct when he’s up against a real opponent.  So believe me, this one is doable.  It will be tough, akin to the Begich/Stevens contest last year, but still very, very, winnable.

So, if you think Mayor Gordon should run (and he will probably have to be drafted), why not drop him a line: http://www.mayorgordon.com/con… or throw his name out to the DSCC.

We can do this.  We can beat McCain on his home turf and send him packing for good while electing a Better Democrat and a great ally for President Obama to the U.S. Senate.  But first, we’ve got to make some noise and get him to run.

(Cross Posted at Senate Guru and DailyKos)

Cross posted at ElectionInspection.wordpress.com

John McCain, fresh off his loss of the 2008 presidential race was looking forward to going home, resting and recuperating with a nice easy senate race ahead of him.  But it appears all is not well in Arizona for McCain and things may not turn out all that easy for him.

There has bee na lot of speculation that Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano may get involved in the Senate race here in the state but that specualtion has begun to die down with word that she will be in President-elect Obama’s cabinet.  It was then assumed that Democrats would not be able to mount a credible challenge to McCain, but it may not be McCain we have to face.  

 

It appears that some Republicans, even some in the power structure of the state party, want John McCain to go away.  They are advocating for a primary challenge and it is possible that not only could they get that challenge, but that the challenge may come from a big name.  According to the national review, Former Congressman and current conservative talk radio show host J.D. Hayworth is getting some pressure put on him to run in the race.  Rob Haney, the former district 11 chairman has been putting the pressure on and Hayworth has apparently been getting calls into his show urging him to run.  

I personally could not envision a better scenario as I think  Hayworth would be much easier to defeat than McCain and that even a Jim Pederson type of candidate could win in this case.  If you live in the state of Arizona, you should really consider calling in to Hayworth’s radio show and tell him all abouthow he should run for the senate against McCain.  With a little luck, the Club for Growth will help him out and give us a chance to win in 2 states instead of one.  

(Proudly cross-posted at C4O Democrats)

This year has been quite transformative for The West, especially The Southwest. Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico have gone from Red to Blue. Utah and Arizona don’t look quite as Red as they used to. Oh yes, and California now looks bluer than ever before.

But will this last? Will The Southwest continue to trend blue? And can Democrats continue to make gains here?

Honestly, I think so. Why? First off, demographics are shifting our way. Latinos continue to grow in population and political influence. “Creative Class” professionals continue to breathe new life into the region’s urban areas. The area has changed, and the changes favor us.

And because the demographics of The Southwest has changed, so has the politics. The old “rugged individualism” and “libertarian conservatism” that used to define the region’s politics have faded away as these formerly rural states are becoming much more urban and suburban. After all, why would young parents in Henderson, NV, worry about whether or not they can own assault rifles when they have to make plans for their kids’ college education, keep their kids safe from dangerous air and water pollutions, and be able to afford a home and food and health care? Why would a couple of biotech researchers in Aurora, CO, feel threatened by public park land in the state when they’re worried about keeping their jobs?

See where I’m going? The West has changed. I know. I’ve witnessed how my native Orange County, CA, has changed from “John Birch Society” embarrassment to dynamic urban environment. I’ve seen firsthand how Las Vegas has transformed from small casino town to world-class destination. I’ve been amazed by how the entire region has changed, and how we all saw this on full display as Democrats won across the board here.

So what should we do next? Let’s first talk about Nevada. Barack Obama won here by 12% (vs. a 2% Bush win in 2004), Democrat Dina Titus defeated GOP incumbent Jon Porter for Congress in NV-03, and Democrats now control both houses of the state legislature. So what next? We keep Majority Leader Harry Reid in the Senate and put a good Democrat in the Governor’s seat to replace the disgraced GOP incumbent Jim Gibbons, as both are quite doable. I’d now peg the Senate race as “Leans Democratic” and the Governor’s race as “Toss-up”. Oh yes, and we’d be wise to take advantage of Obama’s possible 2012 coattails here by finding a legitimate challenger to GOP Senator John Ensign.

Colorado was also good to us this year, as Obama won by 9% (vs. a 5% Bush win in 2004), Mark Udall won a formerly GOP Senate seat, and Betsy Markey unseated GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave in CO-04. So what can we do now? I’d peg incumbent Senator Ken Salazar’s 2010 race as “Likely Democratic” now, but we should keep a close watch to make sure we win again. And of course, we’ll need to make sure Obama wins again in 2012.

But what about California? Obama won here by a whopping 24% (vs. a 10% Kerry win in 2004) and Democrats already have both Senate seats & 33 of 53 House seats. What more can we have? How about the Governor’s seat, which I already consider “Leans Democratic” as the GOP has no strong candidate to succeed Arnold Schwarzenegger? And how about winning the “Toss-up” House races in CA-03, CA-04, and CA-44 in 2010, where we came so close this year? Same goes for the “Leans Republican” races in CA-46 and CA-50?

And what about Arizona? McCain won his home state by 9% (vs. an 11% Bush win in 2004), but Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick still managed to win a formerly GOP seat in AZ-01. So is there still potential here? I think so. Without the McCain win here in 2012. And better yet, we can beat McCain in 2010, as well as fellow GOP Senator Jon Kyl in 2012, with the right candidates. Same goes with the 2010 Governor’s race, which can be a “Toss-up” if we can have a quality candidate run against newly minted GOP Governor Jan Brewer.

So where do we go from here out West? We win! Ready to win?

For a state that John McCain is expected to win handily, the Republicans sure look like they are in trouble. Democrats are poised to picked up the AZ-01 Congressional seat and yesterday, the Arizona Republic reports that there is a very good chance that Democrats will take control of the State House of Representatives for the first time in 44 years.

One of the state’s leading Republican strategists warned Monday that the GOP is in “acute jeopardy” of losing control of the state House – and maybe even the Senate – in an election that could be brutal for the party.

“The situation is dire and getting worse by the day,” Lincoln Strategy Group political consultant Nathan Sproul wrote in a four-page memo addressed to every GOP legislative candidate.

As subtle as a fire alarm, the memo comes less than a month before the Nov. 4 election and cautions incumbents and newbies alike that “the Republican Party is standing on the cliff of minority status.”

“The doomsday scenario for Republicans is no longer a distant possibility,” Sproul added.

He concluded his memo by saying that the danger of losing the majority status was “real and imminent.”

“The Democrats are well-funded, organized and hungry,” Sproul wrote. “It is every man and woman for himself or herself. Good luck. You’re going to need it.”

Democrats currently hold 27 seats to the Republicans’ 33 seats, meaning a four seat swing will win it for us. There is no need to ephazise the importance of legislative seats here as we followed special elections for the past 2 years. We also know that, as with the case of Barack Obaam, legislatures are incubators for future members of Congress, governors, and possibly presidents. If you are in AZ, do what you can to make it happen.

Note From Diarist:  This diary is primarily about the Presidential campaign.  I wrote it for Daily Kos but didn’t feel it got the exposure I was hoping for.  It’s very much inside baseball politics so I thought it might have some fans around here, but it is about the Presidential campaign which I know is no longer the focus of the website.  If the moderator wishes to delete it, I’ll understand.

Anybody following the horse race at all has a pretty good idea where the key battlegrounds are expected to be. My personal opinion is that the three markets that are most likely to determine the 2008 election winner are, in this order, Denver (including Boulder and Fort Collins), Detroit, and Northern Virginia. Beyond those three, there are at least a dozen markets in key battleground states that will be sucking up the vast majority of campaign resources in the next 50-some days until the election. That’s the way the game is played and always will be for as long as the Electoral College is a reality. My thought process this morning was dedicated to isolating some geographic hotspots that are perhaps under-the-radar of conventional wisdom yet could nonetheless be very productive investments of time and resources for the Obama campaign. The top-10 I came up with are listed below in descending order.

10. Flagstaff, Arizona–Because it’s John McCain’s home state, nobody expects Arizona to be a swing state in 2008. It probably won’t be, but the most recent poll released from the state showed McCain leading by only six in Arizona, a smaller lead than he held in the expected battleground state of Nevada. The Obama campaign needs to do some internal polling in Arizona and see if their findings reflect the recent polling of a single-digit McCain lead. If it is, I think it would be entirely worthwhile to pour some campaign dollars in the less-expensive media market of Flagstaff, which is already favorable Democratic terrain, and also to set up a campaign stop there. It would be very embarrassing for the McCain campaign if Obama went to the university town of Flagstaff and filled the streets with tens of thousands of screaming fans in McCain’s backyard. Obviously this is not something we’re likely to see in the closing weeks of the campaign, but for headfake value alone, it’s something worth doing in September.

9. Aberdeen, South Dakota–I’ve seen only one poll coming out of South Dakota, and it showed McCain with a scant four-point lead. I don’t expect Obama to win there, but I’m puzzled why the prospect of a competitive South Dakota is not even being discussed even when the polls are similar to those of North Dakota, which is a battleground. Aberdeen is a worthwhile target for a September campaign stop and television ads for a number of reasons. This is the Democratic part of South Dakota. Tim Johnson and Stephanie Herseth pulled out statewide victories in 2002 and 2004 by running up the score in the counties in and around Aberdeen. Given that the Democrats have adopted a much more friendly platform to controversial-everywhere-but-the-Corn-Belt biofuels than Republicans in 2008, Obama could pick off alot of GOP-leaning farmers in eastern South Dakota who don’t trust McCain’s commitment to agriculture. Beyond that, Obama could do a rally with hometown boy Tom Daschle and really make some connections to voters who were out of reach for Gore and Kerry. I’m not certain about particulars of the Aberdeen media market, but I suspect it would be one of the cheapest in the country for advertising, and cuts into portions of North Dakota making it even more useful.

8. Wheeling, West Virginia–I have a good friend who lives deep into the hollers of Logan County, WV, and still insists from her interactions that she believes Obama will win West Virginia. I suspect that puts her in a minority small enough to count on one hand, but I still think some outreach effort into West Virginia would be valuable, particularly in the Wheeling area. Obama essentially ceded West Virginia to Hillary in the primary, making only one campaign stop in Charleston on the eve of the primary. Voters there don’t know him, but I suspect that if more do, the margin for McCain in the state could potentially be far less lopsided than if he doesn’t set foot there. More importantly though, I think Wheeling is important for the same reason it was important for Kerry four years ago. The market cuts into Ohio and Pennsylvania, specifically the very blue-collar regions of Ohio and Pennsylvania where Obama has the most work to do to win over skeptics. I suspect campaigning in this area is something of a defensive move, meaning his best hope is probably to cut losses rather than win over Bush voters, but in the context of controlling losses within statewide races in OH and PA, the old adage that the best offense is a good defense certainly seems to apply.

7. Council Bluffs, Iowa–Each new round of poll numbers indicate that Iowa appears less likely to ultimately be a battleground state, with Obama managing double-digit leads in the state. Again, I surmise that the untold story accounting for Obama’s strong performance throughout the Corn Belt (even Indiana!) is ethanol, specifically McCain’s previous hard-line opposition to it. The reason Council Bluffs is a secret weapon is twofold. It’s location in the heavily Republican southwest side of Iowa means the Obama campaign is on offense there, competing for traditionally Republican votes in western Iowa, but also competing for votes in Omaha, Nebraska, just across the Missouri River from Council Bluffs. We don’t hear much anymore about the prospect of Obama winning one (or even two) of the electoral votes in eastern Nebraska, and it remains a longshot. Nonetheless, raising Obama’s presence in western Iowa will have spillover effect in Omaha and the corn farmers surrounding it in Nebraska, leaving the prospect of robbing McCain of a Nebraska electoral vote on the table while simultaneously running up the score in Iowa.

6. Durango, Colorado–Chances are, the suburban doughnut surrounding Denver will decide who wins Colorado’s nine electoral votes, but if the race is as close there as most suspect it will end up being, smaller Colorado markets loom large. The fast-changing demography of Colorado was abundantly clear in the 2004 election, and perhaps no place was the change more obvious than Durango, formerly a Republican stronghold in Colorado’s southwest corner, where population growth is apparently fronted by left-leaning young people drawn to the area’s ski culture. I believe there were only five counties in America that Bill Clinton never won in 1992 or 1996, but where John Kerry won in 2004. La Plata County, Colorado, home of Durango, was one of them. If we assume that the trendlines that had clearly transformed Durango in 2004 have continued, Obama should be able to grow upon Kerry’s margin rather significantly in the area in 2008. The fact that neighboring battleground state New Mexico is a few miles south of Durango is an an additional bullet point for its utility.

5. South Bend, Indiana–Congressman Joe Donnelly showed us the potential northern Indiana holds for Democrats if we simply try there. The lesson appears to be learned as Indiana is deemed a battleground state in 2008. South Bend strikes me as the most consequential market in Indiana. Notre Dame University gives Obama a youthful base of operation while simultaneously providing Obama an outreach to Catholic voters, a demographic long cited as one of his most difficult to reach. The South Bend market also reaches into southwestern Michigan, and despite fairly encouraging polls of late, I think Obama will ultimately need all the help in can get in Michigan. Probably outside of the South Bend market but still worthy of mention is another Indiana town in Joe Donnelly’s Congressional district, Kokomo. This is a blue-collar factory town that Democrats should be winning, but rarely do. Voters in Kokomo may be some of the most likely to swing if the Obama campaign reaches out to them in a serious way.

4. Elko, Nevada–In 2004, it seemed like John Kerry was spending more time in Republican-leaning Reno than in Democratic-leaning Las Vegas. I didn’t really understand it at the time, until I saw the election returns and noticed Kerry had significantly cut into the GOP’s advantage in Reno and surrounding areas. The reason Kerry lost Nevada was that he got absolutely destroyed in rural Nevada. Obama, by contrast, beat Hillary in most rural Nevada counties, meaning there’s at least a basis for thinking he could overperform Kerry in places like Elko. Campaigning and advertising in Elko would really be taking Kerry’s 2004 effort to go on offense in Reno to the next level. Considering Kerry got less than 20% of the vote in Nevada’s fourth most populous county, worse than both Mondale and Dukakis did back in the day, there’s easily room for improvement in the area, and even a little improvement upstate Nevada could be the difference in the state.

3. Cincinnati, Ohio–Now considering Cincinnati is the third-largest media market in what is considered perhaps the most critical battleground state, calling for an Obama campaign presence there is on the surface a no-brainer, but most importantly, I see metropolitan Cincinnati as the region of Ohio where Obama is best-positioned to make gains over John Kerry. Kerry narrowly lost Hamilton County (home of the city of Cincinnati and the core of its suburbs), but with a high African-American turnout in 2008, I strongly expect the county to turn blue. Just as important are the three crimson red exurban counties surrounding Cincinnati, which accounted for Bush’s entire margin of victory in Ohio in 2004. In every election since 2004, the needle has moved dramatically against Republicans in all of these counties (Butler, Clermont, and Warren), with Jean Schmidt, Ken Blackwell, and Mike DeWine, all badly underperforming traditional GOP margins in the area. If Obama can keep this trendline going and trim his losses by a few percentage points in suburban Cincinnati, it will go a long way towards offsetting his likely underperformance in the rural portions of Ohio. And to whatever extent the Cincinnati market is an outreach into Indiana is also a feather in our cap.

2. Michigan’s Upper Peninsula–With the racial polarization of metropolitan Detroit, enflamed by the Kwame Kilpatrick scandal, and Obama’s call for tougher CAFE standards fiercely opposed by Detroit automakers, the McCain campaign has some serious ammunition against Obama to take into Michigan. I fully expect Obama will underperform Gore and Kerry in metropolitan Detroit. With that in mind, the thought process should become where we can pick up additional votes in Michigan to offset the possible hemorrhaging in the population centers. To that end, it seems like a no-brainer for Obama to take his campaign up north…way up north. The blue-collar Upper Peninsula of Michigan is sparsely populated, but its demographics seem to align with other Midwestern areas that are Obama-friendly. More to the point, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan looks like Wisconsin, thinks like Wisconsin, and votes like Wisconsin. When you look at Obama’s healthy standing in Wisconsin polls compared to Kerry four years ago or Gore’s eight years ago, my thinking is that every Obama campaign rally that begins in Green Bay should make the quick drive to Marquette, Michigan, from there.

1. Fargo-Moorhead (North Dakota/Minnesota)–I suspect there is no other media market in the country where the needle will move more significantly in Obama’s favor compared to 2000 and 2004 than Fargo-Moorhead. To the extent that North Dakota has already been identified as a battleground state, Obama’s campaign already has a presence in the area, but may nonetheless not appreciate just how many things are working to their candidate’s favor here. First of all, the cities of Fargo and Moorhead are islands of youth in a region otherwise dominated by gray hair. That cuts to Obama’s advantage demographically. Furthermore, in addition to Obama’s more farmer-friendly stand on biofuels, the Democrats have an additional ace-in-the-hole here because the region is one of the nation’s top sugar-growing areas. The sugar industry has enjoyed its relative “cartel” status and has become decidedly protectionist since the passage of CAFTA in 2005, a vote which helped every Democrat on the ticket in Minnesota in 2006 score landslide margins in the Red River Valley. Particularly on the Minnesota side, this area is historically Democratic, even though both Gore and Kerry were destroyed here. This advantage on both sides of the river extends further to the Grand Forks area, a region of North Dakota where every Democrat needs to win big in a competitive statewide race. It’s expected that Minnesota is leaning heavily Obama, but don’t underestimate the pseudo-maverick image of John McCain fooling alot of moderate suburbanites in Minneapolis-St. Paul. That raises the stakes for Obama’s need to win in places like the Red River Valley, which early indications suggest he is poised to do.

Today, it was my plan to start focusing less on presidential diaries and more on Congressional races. But, thanks to John McCain, I have the opportunity to write a diary that focuses on a little of both. As we all know, the corrupt Rick Renzi is retiring to face a grand jusry, but it gets even better. McCain is doing his best to help Democrats win this seat According to the progressive blog Down With Tyranny! McCain has decided to endorse a candidate who used his ifluence to get his rapist son out of jail.

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Complicating the matter further, is that McCain, in a pique of typically hysterical vindictive pigheadedness, forced the local AZ-01 Republican Party to jettison their favorite candidate to try to hold Renzi’s seat, Kris Mayes (who McCain holds a grudge against because she once worked for the Arizona Republic), in favor of a McCain crony, Ken Bennett. The problem with Bennett isn’t that he’s a McCain crony but that he is widely hated in AZ-01 for using his influence to free his son from punishment after the younger Bennett was convicted of using broomsticks and flashlights in 40 incidents of rape against 18 young boys, many repeatedly.

In case there is any doubt about Clifton Bennet’s guilt.

The son of state Senate President Ken Bennett admitted in court Monday to assaulting middle school boys with a broomstick in their rectal areas, but a judge allowed charges against him to be reduced from 18 to one, and he may avoid jail.

Three of the 18 victims, all boys between the ages of 11 and 15, are from Tucson, and the families are angry that 18-year-old Clifton Bennett and co-defendant Kyle Wheeler, 19, were not charged with sexual assault.

So Mr. Straight Talk does not really care about crime, or victims’ rights. He doesn’t even care about his own party. America needs to know the truth about McCain. But in the meantime, we owe him out thanks for the assist in turning this seat blue.  

Just how far has John McCain’s stock fallen? According to a recent Rocky Mountain poll, he could face double digit defeat… in 2010. Yeah, even in Arizona, his home state, his popularity is less than 50%. The Rocky Mountain poll has popular Governor Janet Napolitano beating him 47% to 36% head-to-head. Napolitano is popular (59%), and could help downticket Democrats with a strong showing. McCain, on the other hand, is tied to an unpopular war, an unpopular immigration bill, and a really lousy attendance record.

Is it any wonder that McCain only leads by 9% in his home state’s GOP presidential primary? I’m glad he’s still in the race, because every dollar he spends is GOP donor money gone splendidly to waste.

(h/t Pollster.com – about 6 days old but I was on vacation and no one else diaried about it)

UPDATE: I guess that’s why McCain’s considering applying for public financing. The 100 million dollars he had planned to raise didn’t come through, so now he’ll probably take 6 million in federal funds just so he retire his debt. Anyone else think he’ll save some of the money he raises from here on out to protect his Senate seat in 2010?

[Napolitano] was ranked as doing an excellent or good job by 59 percent of those asked, and only nine percent gave her a poor or very poor rating.

The poll found that 76 percent of Democrats think she’s doing an excellent or good job, while 51 percent of independents and 41 percent of Republicans give her that ranking.

In a hypothetical head-to-head race for McCain’s Senate seat, 47 percent of those polled would vote for Napolitano, 36 percent for the sitting Republican senator, and 17 percent were undecided.

The poll, conducted by the Behavior Research Center of Arizona, was conducted between July 27 and Aug. 4 and has a margin of error of 3.9 percent.

Credit: AP, Aug. 21, 2007

Democrat Bob Lord has drawn national attention by challenging Republican incumbent John Shadegg in Arizona CD-3 and beating the second-term Congressman at fundraising in the first quarter by an amazing amount. Now that the Lord campaign has captured the attention and support of Democrats nationally, it’s critical that this momentum continue if Lord is to defeat an incumbent Republican.

A group of large donors have agreed to match, dollar-for-dollar, every dollar that the Lord campaign raises in the next week up to $10,000. If they can raise $10,000 from the public at large, the effect will be to raise $20,000 for the campaign.

Please visit Bob Lord’s website and contribute what you can.

A 2nd strong quarter of fundraising will demonstrate that this campaign is for real and that Democrats have a realistic chance at picking up another seat in the Arizona Congressional delegation.  Last election Democrats picked up two seats from Republicans with Harry Mitchell defeating Republican incumbent J.D. Hayworth and Gabby Giffords winning the seat vacated by Republican John Kolbe.  Let’s turn Arizona blue! 
 

Let’s get the word out on the internet, on talk radio, and by word of mouth, and we’ll be on our way to winning this race.  At very least, we’ll force the Republicans to spend money defending what, up until now, they had regarded as a safe seat.  Shadegg is low on money now because he gave away the money he raised last election to other Republicans because he did not face a strong well-funded challenger.  This time will be different!

The breakdown of CD-3 by voter registration is 45 percent Republican; 30 percent, Democratic; and 25 percent, independent, but it is winnable by a Democrat with strong crossover appeal like Bob Lord.

This congressional district is actually quite politically moderate; not only are one quarter of voters registered independents, but Democratic candidates like Governor Janet Napolitano and Attorney General Terry Goddard have carried this district in recent years.  With your help, Bob Lord can win in CD-3 too!

The DCCC is not sitting around waiting for Rick Renzi to resign. According to the Washington Post, they have established a special election fund for the eventual nominee.

Readying for a special election, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has opened a special election fund to collect cash that would benefit the party’s eventual nominee. If a vacancy occurs, the Democratic special election nominee would benefit from an immediate cash infusion from this fund. The DCCC began raising money yesterday for the effort.

“Rick Renzi’s seat was a target before his family business was raided by the FBI. It’s even more so now. If and when there is special election, the Democratic candidate will have the support needed to win,” said Jennifer Crider, a DCCC spokeswoman.

I’ll wait until I see a resignation. But if and when it happens, I will be ready to do my part.