Month: February 2011

Drawing from a rather long comment I had on a previous diary, I’ve decided to expand my one part diary on redistricting in the Bayou State to two.

The first part will run through recent developments in state politics and who controls the redistricting process, while the second will include my proposed map for Louisiana’s 6 congressional districts.

In my honest opinion, Louisiana is the state least alike the other 47 states that make up the continental United States.

Administrative subdivisions are called parishes, not counties. It is a civil law state, as opposed to the other 49 common law states.

Politics in the state are no different.

Party labels are very fluid. In state government, there are conservative Democrats – although less so now – and some fairly moderate Republicans, especially for standards of the Deep South.

In the past few months, Democrats have taken a hit, and in Louisiana, it has been no different.

For the first time since Reconstruction, Republicans control the state house. There is a Republican governor, and after Attorney General Buddy Caldwell’s party switch last week, the only statewide elected Democrat is Sen. Mary Landrieu.

That leaves the state senate, which currently is split right down the middle, 19 Democrats and 19 Republicans.

This gridlock is a result of party switchers, notably state Sen. John Alario, and a single vacancy.

Redistricting in the state is done by the legislature and the governor and it seems the last chance for Democrats to be at the table, outside the Holder DOJ, is the state senate.

Let’s look at that vacancy.

The 26th district is vacant after Sen. Nick Gautreaux resigned to become Bobby Jindal’s commissioner of the Office of Motor Vehicles.

(Just an aside, this appointment and that of a former independent state senator as the Commissioner of the Office of Alcohol and Tobacco Control was smart politically by the governor and is VERY reminiscent of President Obama’s appointments of Jon Huntsman and John Mchugh)

The 26th district includes all of Vermillion parish and parts of Acadia, Lafayette and St. Landry parishes.

The district takes in areas of Cajun country west of Lafayette and stretches down south to include Vermillion parish, ending at the Gulf. To better understand the region, the 2000 census reported about a quarter of people in Vermillion speak French or Cajun French at home.

This area is historically Democratic. In the jungle primary in the 2003 gubernatorial election, 3 of the 4 parishes in district 26 were won by Kathleen Babineaux Blanco, who would win only 7 parishes and grab only 18% of the vote but squeak into the general election against Bobby Jindal.

This small chunk of Acadiana will decide which party will control the state senate.

After Gautreaux’s announcement that he would resign, Republican state Rep. Jonathan Perry, who represents much of the sparsely populated coastal parts of Vermillion and Cameron parishes, entered the race.

Soon thereafter, Democrat Nathan Granger, a member of the Vermillion Parish Police Jury and owner of an oilfield services company, entered the race.

At this stage in the race, both camps have released dueling internals showing each with about a 10 point lead.

Anecdotally, I have heard from a friend from Crowley that the area is swamped with advertisements from Granger and after reviewing campaign finance reports, it appears that is the case.

As of Jan. 31, campaign finance reports show Granger raised about 280k, of which 220k was self-funded, with 100k COH.

Perry has raised 90k and has 30k COH.

Take all this with a grain of salt, but it appears that this Blue Dog might just dispatch a Tea Partier in a very important race for Louisiana politics.

In part 2, the map I unveil will show why Democrats need to have a seat at the redistricting table as I attempt to create a VRA district based in New Orleans that DOES NOT stretch all the way to Baton Rouge.

Sorry about the corny title. I felt that after the infamous Delaymander of Texas, this needed a similar name, and Steny Hoyer’s name didn’t lend itself to this as much as Chris Van Hollen’s name did. Anyway, this map attempts to defeat Andy Harris and Roscoe Bartlett while keeping all Democratic incumbents safe. And as an added bonus, it draws a new majority-minority district, just for the hell of it. Overall, this map is probably even cleaner looking than the current map of MD (which was always unnecessarily ugly, IMO). The only really ugly looking district is the 3rd, and even that looks better than it did before.

DC Area:

Baltimore:

Starting in the west, the panhandle is now in MD-08. In most of this area, the I-270 serves as the barrier between MD-08 and MD-06, with the area SW of the 270 in the 8th and the area NE of the 270 in MD-06. The 8th is 61%O/38%M and the 6th is 62%O/37%M. Van Hollen should be safe, and Bartlett is toast. MD-05 is the new majority-minority district. The racial stats are 49%W/28%B/15%H/7%A. I actually wasn’t intending to do this, but it just so happened that when I drew MD-05 it turned out 51% white, so I decided to tinker with the borders a little to make it majority-minority. The citizen voting age population is probably still majority-white, but that doesn’t really matter as this wasn’t required anyway. MD-04 takes in Calvert and some GOP parts of Anne Arundel Co. It is 39%W/53%B and 75%O/24%M. The 1st loses all its territory in the Baltimore suburbs and now crosses the water in the south into St. Mary’s, Charles, and a tiny part of PG Co. It is now 50%O/48%M, which would be slightly Republican leaning nationally but should be easy for Kratovil to win, especially now that Andy Harris is drawn out of the district. Interestingly, the PG Co parts of the district make up a tiny 33K people, or 5% of the total population of the district, however without these areas the district goes from 50/48 Obama to 47/51 McCain.

In the Baltimore area, the 2nd and 3rd districts have lost their spagetti-like shape and become much more compact. The 2nd district contains Harford and most of northern Baltimore counties as well as the northern part of Baltimore city. The district is 58%O/40%M, which is slightly less than the previous total of 59%O/39%M, but not significantly enough to affect this district much. The 3rd is now a crescent shaped district that stretches around from John Sarbanes’s home in Towson around Baltimore, Howard, and Anne Arundel counties as well as some liberal white areas of Baltimore around the Inner Harbor and Fells Point. It is now 59%O/39%M, which like the 2nd is slightly less than the 60%O/38%M it was before but not significantly. The 7th composes most of the majority black areas of Baltimore, however it stretches out to grab up Republican areas in Baltimore county from the surrounding districts. It is 42%W/52%B and 70%O/28%M.

I guess this map isn’t technically an 8-0 map, as the 1st still has a slight Republican lean. That could easily be gotten rid of by messing with the borders between the 4th and the 1st some more, however I decided that wasn’t necessary and it would require making the map look a little uglier. This 1st contains Kratovil’s base in the Eastern Shore, where he always did very well, but not the Baltimore suburbs that he consistently lost. I guess it’s theoretically possible that the GOP could pick up the 2nd or 3rd in an open-seat situation (maybe), however I really, really doubt they have much more of a chance than they do under the current map.

Holy cow, that was fast. In mid-afternoon, it comes out that Chris Lee sent some schmaltzy beefcake photos of himself to some lady on Craigslist other than his wife; by evening, he’s already resigned. (Whatever happened to courageously gutting it out, like David Vitter and John Ensign?)

Married NY-26 Rep. Chris Lee has just announced that he is resigning in the wake of scandal set off by a damning Gawker report of him scamming on chicks on Craigslist….

“The challenges we face in Western New York and across the country are too serious for me to allow this distraction to continue, and so I am announcing that I have resigned my seat in Congress effective immediately.”

So much for my earlier proclamations that this wasn’t going to endanger his political career. Oh, well, as a wag on Twitter said (regarding his half-assed identity-obscuring efforts on Craigslist):

Now he can be exactly what he had pretended to be — a divorced lobbyist.

It looks like Andrew Cuomo will be left to call a special election in NY-26, an R+6 district that stretches from the Buffalo suburbs to the Rochester suburbs. With this suddenly on the redistricting chopping block, though, will anyone bother to run? (And you know who’s gotta be the happiest about this happening? NY-25’s Ann Marie Buerkle!) Will we see another Dem primary standoff between Jon Powers and crazy Jack Davis? (Refer back to our 2008 archives if that doesn’t ring a bell.)

UPDATE: In case you were wondering if there were a way for this to get even more hilarious:

A source close to former guv cand Carl Paladino, who is from the district, tells me he’s being “heavily lobbied” to run in a special.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Here’s a big handy list of potential candidates, in addition to Paladino (for whom being one of 435 may be too small a canvas for his expansive ego):

For the GOP:

• Erie Co. Exec. Chris Collins (who got a bit of gubernatorial buzz in 2010)

• state Sen. George Maziarz (can’t see the GOP being happy with the possibility of risking losing their new state Senate majority, though)

• state Sen. Michael Ranzenhofer

• Assemblywoman Jane Corwin

• Assemblyman Jim Hayes

• Assemblyman and Monroe Co. GOP chair Bill Reilich

• Monroe Co. Exec. Maggie Brooks

• Ex-Assemblyman Jack Quinn (the son of the former Buffalo-area GOP Rep.)

• Ex-Rep. Tom Reynolds (one reporter says he’s getting “antsy” as a lobbyist, and maybe the stench of l’affaire Mark Foley has worn off)

For the Dems:

• Erie Co. Comptroller Mark Poloncarz

• Eric Co. Clerk Kathy Hochul

And if you’re wondering about the special election process, the Governor must call a special election (because this happened so early in the term, it’s not comparable to how David Paterson was essentially able to pocket-veto a NY-29 special election in the wake of Eric Massa’s resignation until November). The Gov still has discretion about when he calls it, though, and there’s a fast turnaround, with the election happening 30-40 days after the Gov’s call. As you probably remember from the debacles (for the GOP) in the NY-20 and NY-23 special elections, the nominees are chosen by a weighted vote of the county party committees, rather than by primary.

Lee resigned pretty quickly today once it became apparent he could not lie about the hacking bit.

http://politicalwire.com/archi…

Our shot at this seat was botched when Kryzan somehow got the nomination.  What is our bench like in the area?  Would Powers be a good candidate?

Obviously Lee crushed in 2010, but perhaps we have a shot here ala Foley 2006?

Thoughts?

• FL-Sen: Meg Whitman seems like a strange place to start talking about the Florida Senate race, but hear me out. She’s in the news today for the outrageously large sums of money she paid to her top campaign staff (although, to be fair, in her particular frame of reference, I’m sure those seemed like outrageously small sums of money), including $948K paid to her campaign manager, Jill Hasner. If that name sounds vaguely familiar, she’s the wife of former Florida state House majority leader Adam Hasner, currently making trips to DC to lay groundwork for a run in the GOP primary. If that $948K gets plowed straight into Hasner’s bid, that’s a pretty significant nut to start out with. Money is also the reason you keep hearing Rep. Vern Buchanan’s name associated with this race, even if he hasn’t said anything publicly indicating his interest for 2012; he has $956K in his House account, second most of all the Florida House delegation, which would give him a head start if he transferred that over to a Senate bid.

• MA-Sen: Not content to rest on his already-tops-in-the-2012-class $7 million cash stash, Scott Brown has set a fundraising target of $25 million for his Senate race. Whether he actually can hit that is an open question, but the fact that he can even credibly lay down a marker like this is a reminder that this race is no gimmee for the Dems. Also, here’s a neat story that’s more about the meta of reporting on campaigns in their formative stages, and how, in the absence of useful information, we’re all pretty much just talking in circles about rumors that quickly become unclear where they started. It’s a piece from a central Massachusetts blog that investigates where the heck the idea of Fitchburg mayor Lisa Wong running for Senate came from and how that bubbled up to the national level, despite her having done nothing to indicate any interest in the race… and today, closing the circle of meta, Politico, the main purveyor of such campaign-rumor grist, reported on the story. I don’t know whether to be ashamed or pleased that Swing State Project is cited as one of the key players in this particular game of telephone; either way, clearly we’ve hit the big time.

• MI-Sen: Buried in a Roll Call article that does a lot of pointless Debbie Stabenow/Russ Feingold comparing are two names from potential GOP candidates I’d never heard of, although, without knowing more about their self-financing abilities, they seem to be at the Some Dude end of the spectrum. They cite businessman Al Pease, and former juvenile court judge Randy Hekman (who seems to be working a social con angle).

• NE-Sen: Ben Nelson’s most recent statement on the Senate race was only that he was “leaning toward” another run, which isn’t very confidence-inspiring considering that he’d previously said that he was running. But here’s a more clear tell that he is running; he just re-hired his 2006 CM, Paul Johnson, as campaign manager.

• NJ-Sen, NJ-Gov: Quinnipiac is out with some New Jersey numbers, although it’s approvals only… and, in what seems like an unusual departure from tradition, they actually find New Jerseyites, dare I say, liking their politicians?!? Is the giant nationwide wave of bile actually starting to ebb as the economy improves? At any rate, Bob Menendez (44/36), Frank Lautenberg (45/40), and Chris Christie (52/40) all sport positive approvals.

• SC-Sen: PPP fleshes out the 2014 Lindsey Graham situation with some more detailed numbers among Republicans, which they already hinted at with how his approvals broke down in their general electorate sample. His approvals among that group are 42/40, but he also has re-elects of only 37/52. He beats ex-Gov. Mark Sanford easily in a hypothetical primary (52-34), but against a non-Appalachian-Trail-hiking opponent, Rep. Joe Wilson, he trails 43-41.

• NC-Gov: It hadn’t occurred to me that Republican former Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory might not seek a rematch against Bev Perdue in next year’s gubernatorial race; when asked about whether he’d run at an appearance Friday, his answer was just “I hope to.”

• CA-36: Los Angeles city councilor Janice Hahn rolled out more endorsements today, most notably former NBA player Magic Johnson, whom I understand may have some goodwill of some sort in the LA area. She also boasts the endorsement of Assemblyman Warren Furutani (a rumored candidate for a day or two) and ex-Asm. George Nakano, as well as a slew of other city councilors in LA and its southern suburbs. The big question is whether Hahn will get the endorsement of Jane Harman herself; recall that Hahn was Harman’s guest at the State of the Union last month, for what that’s worth. There’s also one other GOPer to add to the list: Redondo Beach city attorney Mike Webb.

• IN-06: With Mike Pence likely to run for Governor and leaving behind an open red district, look for this crowd to grow. Republican Henry County Councilor Nate LaMar is now actively telling local party chairs that he intends to run.

• NY-26: I’d file this more under general “schadenfreude” than a definite Congressional career-killer, but this little indiscretion can’t make things any better for sophomore GOP Rep. (and possible redistricting truncation victim) Chris Lee.

• Chicago mayor: The big story here may not be that Rahm Emanuel keeps gaining in the polls — he’s at 54% in the new poll from Richard Day Research, taken for ABC-7, which is enough to avoid a runoff — but that Carol Mosely Braun is in complete free-fall. In the wake of calling a minor opponent in the race a crackhead and various other lesser gaffes, she’s down to 6%! While there aren’t trendlines from this pollster, based on where other polls have been, Emanuel seems to be the main beneficiary of this flight, as Gery Chico and Miguel del Valle are still hanging far back, at 14 and 8 respectively.

• Votes: Here’s an interesting bit of left/right convergence against the middle, on one of those rare common-ground issues: the Patriot Act. The House failed to renew the Patriot Act by a 277-147 margin, with 26 GOP nays joining 122 Dems. (For some reason, the leadership was doing this under suspension of rules, which means they needed 2/3rds to pass it. It looks like they’ll simply do it again and pass it under normal rules.) Knee-jerk pundits have been presenting this as a triumph of the tea partiers newly elected to Congress, but a more detailed look between the lines finds less than half of the Tea Party Caucus voting against it, and only eight of the GOP freshmen voting against it. Interestingly, two GOP House members more on the establishment end of things who are likely to be running for Senate in 2012, Connie Mack IV and Dean Heller, voted against it, showing the amazing progress in the Patriot Act’s transition from legislative slam-dunk ten years ago to a potential electoral liability now.

• VRA: The Dept. of Justice seems to have kicked things into high gear with redistricting and off-year elections approaching. They just granted VRA preclearance to California to proceed with its nonpartisan citizen redistricting panels (not a controversial proposal, certainly, but still requiring preclearance because of four California counties), and to Louisiana to restore its jungle-style primary at the federal level in addition to the state level.

• Voter suppression: Welcome Tennessee to the growing club of states with Republican-controlled legislatures who are getting on the bandwagon of requiring voter IDs. The proposal cleared a state Senate committee yesterday.

I guess we can’t consider this a surprise:

Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) announced he will not seek re-election in 2012.

The first-term Senator issued a statement saying he will return to the private sector, removing the possibility of a high-profile rematch with former Republican Sen. George Allen.

“It has been a great and continuing privilege to serve in the United States Senate,” Webb said. “I am very proud of my talented and dedicated staff, which has worked tirelessly to resolve the issues on which I based my candidacy, and to protect the interests of all Virginians in this national forum.”

So who might run in Webb’s place for Team Blue? Perhaps it’s time for a comeback from Tom Perriello, who fought valiantly in 2010 despite occupying a tough district?

Updated with racial data on 2/17/11

The census has just released its data for New Jersey. Not wasting any time, I have made my post-census redistricting plan for New Jersey. This isn’t a partisan gerrymander, I already did one of those. My goal is communities of interest and reasonable compactness, what a good-government redistricting should look like.

New Jersey has 8,791,894 people. That’s 12 districts with 732,657 or 732,658 people each. And it has to be exact or else someone will sue. However some states don’t require exact population equality. For example Arkansas and West Virginia don’t allow county splitting. While New Jersey’s 21 counties are too big for that, you can keep districts close to the ideal population without splitting any of the 566 municipalities. I think NJ should start doing this. In 1960 Newark had more people than a Congressional district, but that is no longer the case.

All districts are within 1% of the ideal population. No one has any grounds to complain about population inequality. I also minimized county splits.

Counties with fewer than 300,000 people were not split at all.

Counties with fewer than 500,000 people were not split more than once.

No county was split more than twice.

I numbered the Congressional districts from south to north. Most districts are already numbered from south to north and I fixed the ones that aren’t.

South Jersey

South Jersey is currently divided into 1 super-packed Democratic district and 3 barely Republican districts. I think this is an immoral gerrymander. NJ has 6 districts that go all the way, or almost all the way, from the Delaware River to the Atlantic Ocean or Hudson River. This probably goes back to when population in NJ was more concentrated in the cities, so the rest of the state got sliced up into segments. Now that more of the population is in the suburbs they should stop doing that. The Delaware Valley and the Shore (Turnpike corridor and Parkway corridor) are 2 separate communities that should get their own districts. Districts 2 and 3 (and 5) follow the Turnpike corridor and Districts 1 and 4 (and 6) follow the Parkway corridor.

1st District (R+1)

Location: Lower shore, Bay shore, and Pine Barrens

Incumbent: Frank Lobiondo

Population: -4551

Largest city: Vineland

Demographics: 68% White, 12% Black, 15% Hispanic, 3% Asian

It’s currently the 2nd district, but I think the big districts at opposite ends of the state should be 1 and 12, so I’m changing it’s number to the 1st. When driving south on the Parkway this district begins where the cities end. It’s urban areas, Atlantic City and Vineland, are separate from the New York and Philly metro areas. It is home to both of New Jersey’s nuclear power plants. (Does any Congressional District have more than 1 nuclear power plant?) It becomes a little bit more Republican but it’s still a swing district. Any district with all of Atlantic, Cumberland, and Cape May counties is going to be a swing district, between D+3 and R+3, no matter what else you add to it.

2nd District (D+10)

Location: Greater Camden

Incumbent: Rob Andrews

Population: -1758

Largest city: Camden

Demographics: 67% White, 16% Black, 11% Hispanic, 3% Asian

Camden County, the suburbs as well as the city, has grown very little since the 2000 census. So the district had to get bigger. It now includes all of Gloucester County. Unlike Camden, Gloucester County has seen some rapid growth. An enormous planned community was built in the sleepy rural township of Woolwich and in the last 10 years its population went from 3032 to 10200.

3rd District (D+9)

Location: Cherry Hill to Hopewell

Incumbent: Jon Runyan

Population: +742

Largest city: Hamilton

Demographics: 64% White, 19% Black, 10% Hispanic, 5% Asian

It’s shaped like Washington DC; a square with a bite formed by a river boundary. This half of Burlington County has 96% of its population. This district is as Democratic as Delaware, which kept reelecting, by a large margin, a Republican Congressman with a moderate reputation. So it is possible but not likely that Chris Smith could run and win here. If Smith wins the 3rd and is able to hold it then I won’t complain because the Democrats aren’t losing something they didn’t already have. I think the most likely outcome is Chris Smith runs in the 4th and Jon Runyan gets the shaft. Republicans will never agree to this so the independent on the commission needs to like this plan better than what the Republicans draw to protect their incumbents.

4th District (R+12)

Location: Mid Jersey Shore

Incumbent: Chris Smith

Population: -55

Largest city: Lakewood

Demographics: 83% White, 3% Black, 9% Hispanic, 3% Asian

The coastal towns all either remained stagnant or lost population while the population further inland skyrocketed. Lakewood gained 32000 people while Jackson and Freehold also had large population gains. This district is incredibly Republican now but that is only a recent trend. It probably voted for Clinton in 1996, and may have voted for McGreevey in 2001. While Chris Smith’s home is in the 3rd, most of his population is in the 4th, so he will probably run in this district.

Central Jersey

Current districts 12, 6 and 7 are skinny districts that span west-east. However like-minded communities in Central Jersey span north-south, and the new districts reflect that. Suburban Middlesex and Somerset Counties have had a lot of growth (for NJ) in the last decade.

5th District (D+10)

Location: Route 1 corridor, from Lawrence to Edison

Incumbent: Rush Holt

Population: +47

Largest city: Edison

Demographics: 51% White, 10% Black, 14% Hispanic, 23% Asian

Districts 5 and 12 trade numbers. This is an affluent, well-educated, diverse, liberal district. It follows the Route 1 and New Jersey Transit corridor. It relies heavily on commuter rail. In fact commuter rail made the growth in this area possible. It is home to both Princeton and Rutgers Universities. It has a good chance of electing an Asian to Congress. As far as I know there are not currently any Asian American Congressmen from any non-Pacific state. This district is more urban than the current 12th because it adds the New Brunswick/Edison/Piscataway area from Frank Pallone’s 6th.

6th District (D+2)

Location: Eastern border, from Neptune to Linden

Incumbent: Frank Pallone

Population: -244

Largest city: Woodbridge

Demographics: 61% White, 11% Black, 18% Hispanic, 8% Asian

This district is more working-class and less affluent than the new 5th. It follows the Garden State Parkway and the North Coast Line. Its strange shape is because it follows the coast. The most Democratic parts of the old 6th were given to Rush Holt and the most Republican parts of the old 12th were given to Frank Pallone. As a result Frank Pallone has a more Republican district. That’s what happens when you un-gerrymander. The territory from Perth Amboy to Linden, which is strongly Democratic, was also given to Pallone. If Pallone ran for reelection in this district in 2010 then he would have won by less than 1%. If a solidly liberal Congressman wins it in a very Republican year then it is still a Democratic district. However if Monmouth County continues to turn more Republican then this district could become winnable for Republicans.

7th District (R+2)

Location: Northwestern suburbs

Incumbent: Rodney Frelinghuysen

Population: +682

Largest city: Parsippany

Demographics: 69% White, 7% Black, 11% Hispanic, 11% Asian

This district is the conservative-leaning suburbs of North Jersey. It is probably one of the most affluent districts in the country. Although it looks different from the current 11th, Rodney Frelinghuysen already represents 47% of its population. This district could turn Democratic in the next 10 years.

North Jersey

The 4 small urban Congressional districts in metro North Jersey have been reduced to 3 because of population loss. I ended the racial gerrymander that caused Newark, Elizabeth and Jersey City to be split along racial lines. The Payne and Sires districts are still minority-majority so there should be no issues with the VRA. Meanwhile Rothman and Garrett get combined into an all-Bergen County district.



Prepared using Dave’s Redistricting App and Bing Maps

8th District (D+30)

Location: Newark, Elizabeth, and surrounding cities

Incumbent: Donald Payne

Population: +813

Largest city: Newark

Demographics: 20% White, 46% Black, 29% Hispanic, 3% Asian

In addition to Newark and Elizabeth, there are smaller mostly-black cities such as East Orange and Irvington, suburbs with large black populations such as Maplewood and Union, and a few white suburbs needed for population equality.

9th District (D+16)

Location: Hudson County and Meadowlands

Incumbent: Albio Sires

Population: +1458

Largest city: Jersey City

Demographics: 36% White, 10% Black, 39% Hispanic, 13% Asian

Instead of trying to split up Hudson County among its different demographics I decided it was better to embrace it as a diverse multi-ethnic district. The district is also economically diverse. It is home to the Gold Coast and to many new-immigrant neighborhoods.

10th District (D+10)

Location: Northern Essex and Lower Passaic

Incumbent: Bill Pascrell

Population: -1543

Largest city: Paterson

Demographics: 47% White, 13% Black, 33% Hispanic, 6% Asian

This district is, for the first time, a minority-majority district. It consists of northern Essex, lower Passaic, and a few towns in Bergen. I chose towns that border Clifton and Paterson because those cities are the center of the district. The Hispanic population in this district keeps increasing, so it has a good chance of electing a Hispanic Congressman. Both Clifton and West Orange had significant population growth in the last decade.

11th District (D+2)

Location: Bergen County

Incumbent: Steve Rothman and Scott Garrett

Population: +3529

Largest city: Hackensack

Demographics: 61% White, 6% Black, 15% Hispanic, 16% Asian

This is where 2 districts get combined into 1. Bergen County is traditionally swingy at the state level, so it’s a good place to combine an incumbent Democrat and Republican. The new 11th consists of 54% of Steve Rothman’s population and 58% of Scott Garrett’s population. That adds up to more than 100% because new districts are bigger than the old ones. This district is fairly affluent and well-educated. It spans from the Ramapo Mountains to the George Washington Bridge.

12th District (R+11)

Location: Skylands

Incumbent: Leonard Lance

Population: +878

Largest city: Mount Olive

Demographics: 83% White, 2% Black, 9% Hispanic, 4% Asian

Rural northwest NJ is a community of interest and up until now it is split 3 ways to help 3 Republican districts in North Jersey. This region should be its own district. By now even this district is more suburban than rural. It is probably one of the wealthiest districts in America. It is solidly Republican unlike neighboring rural areas in Pennsylvania (Poconos) and New York (Catskills). It does not have much area in common with Leonard Lance’s Congressional District, but it does look a lot like Lance’s old State Senate District.

Final Notes

I have been working on New Jersey for a long time and now that the census data is in, this is my final product. If I get positive feedback for it here than I will send it to the actual New Jersey Redistricting Commission.

I am a Democrat and this is what I consider a fair map. I am not claiming it is bipartisan.

Is it better to keep cities together or is it better to divide them in order to maximize black and Hispanic voting power in their respective districts? I don’t know. The best way to find out is to go to Newark, Jersey City, and Elizabeth and ask the black and Hispanic people what they would prefer. However as soon as you split one city you no longer have an excuse not to have exact population equality, and you will be splitting many cities and townships throughout the state.

This should be my last redistricting diary. I don’t plan to do any other states.

Thank you Dave Bradlee for your amazing app! Compare the map I made using Dave’s App to the map I made on my own.

It’s official: http://voices.washingtonpost.c…

Who do we have? With Perriello and Kaine out, could Connolly make a bid?

Now that it’s 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in the coming weeks and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and it’s time to look at Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, and Maryland.

Previous diary on Alabama, Arizona, and Arkansas

Previous diary on California, Colorado, and Connecticut

Previous diary on Florida, Georgia, and Hawaii

Previous diary on Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa

The rest below the fold…

Kansas

Districts: 4

Who’s in charge? Republicans

Is that important? Nope

With an all-Republican delegation, GOP mapmakers may simply try to ensure that Kevin Yoder avoids a close race in the next decade.

Kentucky

Districts: 6

Who’s in charge? Split (Dem Governor and House, GOP Senate)

Is that important? Perhaps

I have heard rumors that Republicans hope to stall the redistricting process past the 2011 state elections, expecting to topple both Gov. Beshear and the Democratic House majority this November. But assuming a continuation of the status quo, Ben Chandler should get a slightly more favorable district than the one he nearly lost in 2010.

Louisiana

Districts: 6, down from 7 in 2002

Who’s in charge? Split (GOP Governor and House, Dem Senate)

Is that important? Not really

The outcome of reapportionment in Louisiana has scarcely been in doubt since Jeff Landry was elected last November. He will be forced against fellow Republican Rep. Charles Boustany in a coastal district. Meanwhile, Cedric Richmond’s VRA-protected seat will have to absorb a lot of new population near Baton Rouge, and Rodney Alexander’s underpopulated northern seat will expand southwest a bit.

Maine

Districts: 2

Who’s in charge? Nonpartisan commission

Is that important? No

Maine does not even traditionally redraw its maps before the election year ending in 2. Sometime in 2013, the commission will make some boundary adjustments, and both Mike Michaud and Chellie Pingree should remain reasonably secure should they still be in office two years from now.

Maryland

Districts: 8

Who’s in charge? Democrats

Is that important? Perhaps

The question here is how aggressive Democrats perceive they can afford to be. They already constructed a master gerrymander in 2002, moving the delegation from a 4-4 split to a thoroughly safe 6-2 Democratic edge. Now, some are pushing for a 7-1 map that remakes Andy Harris’s Eastern Shore seat for a moderate Dem like Frank Kratovil. However, such a map presents serious issues: how to maintain VRA-mandated black majorities in the 4th (represented by Donna Edwards) and 7th (Elijah Cummings)? How to keep the four other Dem incumbents completely safe? With today’s redistricting technology, it can probably be done, but the 1st cannot be made securely Dem lest other districts be jeopardized…only politically competitive enough for Kratovil to stage a comeback.

Public Policy Polling (2/4-6, New Mexico voters, no trendlines):

Jeff Bingaman (D-inc): 51

Gary Johnson (R): 40

Undecided: 9

Jeff Bingaman (D-inc): 57

Steve Pearce (R): 34

Undecided: 9

Jeff Bingaman (D-inc): 56

Heather Wilson (R): 37

Undecided: 7

Martin Heinrich (D): 43

Gary Johnson (R): 44

Undecided: 14

Martin Heinrich (D): 53

Steve Pearce (R): 38

Undecided: 10

Martin Heinrich (D): 50

Heather Wilson (R): 39

Undecided: 11

Ben Ray Lujan (D): 40

Gary Johnson (R): 45

Undecided: 15

Ben Ray Lujan (D): 49

Steve Pearce (R): 37

Undecided: 14

Ben Ray Lujan (D): 48

Heather Wilson (R): 40

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4.2%)

I’ll confess that two things about PPP’s new poll of New Mexico surprise me: one, that the Democrats perform this well in general, seeing as how they just lost the governor’s race and NM-02. The poll’s 55-29 Dem/GOP split at first glance seems optimistic, but this sample broke 55-39 for Obama/McCain in 2008, pretty consistent with the actual 57-42 spread. Given presidential-level turnout instead of 2010-style suckage, Jeff Bingaman (with 56/27 approvals) easily holds the seat against any top-tier Republican. That assumes he’s running again (he’s fundraising, but another run is apparently not a done deal), but PPP still also finds the state’s two Democratic Reps. (NM-01’s Martin Heinrich and NM-03’s Ben Ray Lujan) winning two of three open seat configurations apiece.

The other thing I’m surprised about is how much ex-Gov. Gary Johnson overperforms the other Republicans in the field; he’s the one GOPer who beats Heinrich and Lujan. (I would have expected ex-Rep. Heather Wilson to be the one who overperformed, but she’s little better than NM-02’s polarizing Steve Pearce.) For those not familiar with him, Johnson (in office 1994-2002) is currently a boutique flavor of the month in the GOP presidential field, appealing to the libertarian-minded college-kid demographic that got mixed in with the Paulist crowd in 2008 because of the pot, peace, and financial discipline aspects, but weren’t so interested in the gold standard and black helicopters stuff. That seems to give him enough moderate crossover appeal that he’s competitive in the open seat scenario; there’s no indication, though, that he’s interested in dropping down to that from his quixotic presidential bid. At 44/32, Johnson is the only GOPer with positive favorables.