Tag: Redistricting

I spent the better part of the last 10 days diligently working on an exhaustive map of California (curse you, microscopic precincts of Contra Costa County!) using a method I don’t believe anyone on here has tried yet. And wouldn’t you know it, when I was just finishing up San Diego this morning, Safari decided it was going to quit and my entire map died with it. Too upset to go all the way back to CA-01 and start again, I decided I was going to post a diary today anyway, Safari-be-damned. So here are two maps of Ohio, one a Republican gerrymander and the other a Democratic gerrymander, that I drew a while ago but never got around to posting. Enjoy, let me know what you think, and I promise you I’ll get that California one up eventually!

Note before I begin: I’ve never been to Ohio, so I’m a bit of a rookie when it comes to the political niceties of the state. If I’m missing anything obvious, please let me know.

Ohio Republican Map: The “Four-Steve Plan”

Southwest Ohio and Cincinnati

OH-01 (Blue): Steve Driehaus (D) vs. Steve Chabot (R)

This district is drawn to help Chabot regain and hold his old seat in Congress. It’s still Cincy-based but gains a good portion of deep-red exurban Butler County from the current OH-08, and loses some of its inner-city portions. This configuration is probably R+1 or 2. Driehaus trails in the polls as it is, and this plan has a nasty surprise for him, as 15,000 of the black voters who swept him into office are now constituents of….

OH-02 (Green): Jean Schmidt (R)

This district, which only gave 40% of the vote to Obama, was hoarding Republican votes as it was but I didn’t want to hurt the notoriously weak Schmidt too much. Still, she’s capable of taking on the aforementioned 15,000 black votes, and also adds a little bit more of rural Southern Ohio.

OH-03 (Purple): Mike Turner (R)

Turner and Steve Austria inconveniently chose to live about 20 miles from each other, forcing the former’s district to stretch quite a bit and eat up some of Zack Space’s territory (his district is a casualty of this map.) Montgomery County (Dayton) voted for Obama and is the population center of this district, but OH-08 gets all the black precincts. Thus, Turner’s R+5 district is now R+9, with McCain getting 55%.

Columbus Area

OH-04 (Red): Jim Jordan (R)

Franklin County, home of Columbus, is fast-growing and trending more Democratic by the day. It gave 60% of its votes to Obama, but luckily for Republicans is an island of an ocean of conservative Ohio goodness. Thus, part of the city is sliced off and is attached Texas-style to the 60% McCain counties that border Indiana. No idea what the PVI is because I don’t know the precinct-level data for Franklin, but Jordan’s safe.

OH-07 (Grey): Steve Austria (R)

Austria takes in the sparsely populated and more moderate south of Franklin County, and holds onto most of his old district.  This is the swingiest of the four Columbus-area seats, but PVI-wise its probably not too different from Austria’s current 54% McCain seat.

OH-08 (Indigo?): John Boehner (R)

The Minority Leader currently has the most Republican seat in Ohio, and I doubt GOP map-drawers would disturb his seat too much. He gets 75% McCain Mercer County tacked onto the the northern end of his district in exchange for adding some more of downtown Dayton to help Turner.

OH-12 (Pale Blue): Pat Tibieri (R)

Tibieri is rewarded for holding down his Obama district against the 2006 and 2008 waves with a large swatch of conservative territory to the northeast of Columbus. His district contains less of Franklin than it used to, but now has most of the majority-minority precincts. The portion of the district outside of Franklin, which makes up about 3/5 of its population, voted 61% for McCain.

OH-15 (Orange): Steve Stivers (R)

This district is designed with Stivers in mind and is very similar to the neighboring 12th: a quarter of Franklin County attached seven exurban and rural counties that voted 3:2 for McCain. If Stivers came within a few hundered votes of winning a fairly strong Obama district in ’08, this one should be easy for him.

Note: I don’t know which of my districts Mary Jo Kilroy lives in, but she’d face an uphill fight in any of them. Also, while it is still possible to gerrymander Franklin County into 4 GOP seats, by 2020 it may be wiser to consolidate central Columbus into one safely Democratic district.

OH-06 (Teal): Charlie Wilson (D) vs. Zack Space (D) vs. Generic R

The new 6th, in the southeast of the state, is made up of the most conservative parts of the current 6th and 18th. Thus, Charlie Wilson and Zack Space are heading for a primary fight on a rather level playing field. The winner of this hard-fought contest will emerge to take on a Republican in a 56% McCain district with a lot of  territory unfamiliar to him. Not an impossible hold, but a tough one for Democrats in a region sliding away from them.

Northeast Ohio

OH-05 (Yellow): Bob Latta (R)

Latta’s district shifts westward and loses a point or two (down to  51-52% McCain.) He scoops up the rural, conservative leftovers of counties the voted for Obama but have given their liberal sections to Democratic districts. Also, the population center of this district is now in exurban Cleveland, which means Latta may face a primary from that area. I’ve never cared for him anyway.

OH-09 (Sky Blue): Marcy Kaptur (D)

Nothing new here, folks. The dean of the Ohio delegation keeps her base in Toledo and hugs Lake Erie like Lois Capps hugs the Pacific. Obama won 62%.

OH-10 (Pink): Dennis Kucinich (D)

High 50’s for Obama in western Cleveland and its suburbs. I decided to save Kucinich rather than pit him against one of the other northeastern Democrats because his “nay” votes from the left are nonetheless helpful for Republicans.

OH-11 (Lime): Marcia Fudge (D)

There are just enough African-Americans in Cleveland to keep a VRA majority-black seat in Ohio. Fudge’s percentages on the east side of the city are 51% black, 85% Obama.

OH-13 (Tan): Betty Sutton (D)

Sutton’s district is now dominated by her home county of Summit (Akron) but also takes in the college town of Kent and the west side of Canton. Obama scored in the high 50’s, much like in Sutton’s current district.

OH-14 (Taupe?): Steve LaTourette (R)

LaTourette is stuck in a tough place for a Republican. To the west is Cleveland, to the south Youngstown, and to the north Lake Erie. There is some conservative territory to the east, but it’s in Pennsylvania so that’s a no-go. He does have to expand somewhere, though, so I chose rural Trumbull and Portage counties, which are hopefully more conservative than the counties are as a whole, and the surprisingly Republican south and east of Cuyahoga County. This should be enough to nudge McCain over 50, a slight improvement over the current 14th.

OH-16 (Bright Green): Tim Ryan (D) vs. John Boccieri (D)

This is the Youngstown district, and Ryan should have no problem dispatching of Boccieri in the primary and whoever the GOP puts up in the general. East Canton as well as the liberal parts of Wilson’s district are thrown in for good measure. Boccieri could move and try to run against Latta, but it would be an uphill fight for him.

Summary: 3 Lean R (1, 6, 14), 3 Likely R (5, 7, 15), 5 Safe R, 5 Safe D

Ohio Democratic Map (the “Two-Steve Plan”)

Southwest Ohio

OH-01 (Blue): Steve Driehaus

Driehaus sheds the Butler County portion of his district and now has all of Cincinnati and its inner ring of suburbs. The black percentage ticks up to 25 and Obama probably was in the mid-to-high 50’s. Chabot might still have a chance this year, but Driehaus’ odds are far improved down the road.

OH-02 (Green): John Boehner (R) vs. Jean Schmidt (R)

It’s pretty easy for Democrats to eliminate the arch-conservative Schmidt by tossing her in with Boehner. This very red (McCain 60% +) district is made up of Cincinnati’s and Dayton’s exurbs and should be no trouble at all for the Minority Leader or any Republican who succeeds him.

OH-03 (Purple): Mike Turner (R)

The area between Toledo, Cincinnati, and Columbus is sort of a Bermuda triangle for Democrats, as you’ll be hard pressed to find anyplace that Obama broke 45%. The new 3rd combines the only county in this area that Obama won, Montgomery (Dayton) with marginal Clark County to create a 52/48 Obama district. Nevertheless, the PVI is R+1 and Turner will be favored. This seat becomes a tossup when he retires or runs for higher office.

OH-04 (Red): Jim Jordan (R)

This slice of rural Ohio goodness is about as clean-looking a Republican vote sink as you’ll ever see. McCain was in the 60’s here; a stronger Republican would flirt with 70% of the presidential vote. This might be the safest seat for the GOP in the Midwest.

OH-07 (Grey): Steve Austria (R)

Austria is one of the few Republicans who would prefer this map to my GOP gerrymander. He picks up most of Schmidt’s old district along the Kentucky border and retains his base southwest of Columbus.  With McCain in the high 50’s, Austria has this seat as long as he wants it.

OH-06 (Teal): Charlie Wilson (D)

Wilson’s district pushes ever so slightly north into the Democratic vote warehouse of Youngstown, taking about a quarter of the city. The rest of the district is made up of a selection of the least Republican counties of Southeast Ohio (a lot of 50/50 areas.) It’s not much, but the improvement does flip this slight McCain district into a slight Obama one. Wilson’s safe, but this is trouble for Democrats down the road.

Columbus Area

OH-08 (Indigo?): Zack Space (D)

Mr. Space, welcome to East Columbus! As the only endangered Democrat for hundreds of miles in any direction, Space is rewarded for his two wins in tough territory with a large chunk of Franklin County, attached by a thin strip to his home county of Tuscarawas. Who says ugly can’t be beautiful?

OH-12 (Pale Blue): Pat Tibieri (R)

Tibieri is a winner in both my maps, as once again he trades his part of Columbus for exurban and rural counties. This time, he gets almost all the red counties in Central Ohio, and is sitting comfortably in a 60% McCain district.

OH-15 (Orange): Mary Jo Kilroy (D)

Kilroy needs all the help she can get, so I gave her even more of Columbus than she has now. Then, I traded dark-red Madison and Union Counties for the more moderate Pickaway and Ross Counties to the south of the city. This move pushes Obama into the upper 50’s and should be enough for Kilroy to fend off the pesky Steve Stivers.

Northern Ohio

OH-05 (Yellow): OPEN

This new seat in north-central Ohio is designed with Democrats in mind, as Obama carried it with 54% of the vote. However, it’s not out of the reach of Republicans, especially not this year. Still, since this essentially replaces Latta’s district and we don’t want to spread the votes too thin in Northern Ohio, it’s acceptable. Latta could try his luck here but most of this territory is new to him.

OH-09 (Sky Blue): Marcy Kaptur (D) vs. Bob Latta (R)

Sorry Bob, this one’s not gonna happen. Dominated by Lucas County (Toledo), the dean of the delegation should have no problem retaining her seat. Even with the Republican-voting northwest, the new 9th still gave 61% of the vote to Obama. Kaptur’s small sacrifice frees up the lake counties to the west for the new 5th.

OH-10 (Pink): Dennis Kucinich (D)

This district takes Wayne and Medina Counties, which voted for John McCain by a combined 15,000 votes, and neutralizes them with a large slice of western Cuyahoga County (Cleveland). Kucinich could theoretically be in trouble here, but the most likely scenario is that he runs into a strong suburban primary challenger who goes on to easily hold this one for the Democrats.

OH-11 (Lime): Marica Fudge (D)

Exactly the same in both gerrymanders. 51% black. Ho hum.

OH-13 (Tan): Betty Sutton (D)

Sutton has it about the same on both maps as well. Once again, she claims all of Summit County (Akron) and has enough Democratic votes there to allow her to swallow Republican precincts in southern Cuyahoga and Steve LaTourette’s home precint (more on him later.) 57% for Obama this time.

OH-14 (Taupe?): Tim Ryan (D)

Ryan keeps all of his home county, Trumbull, as well as the majority of the city of Youngstown. Those alone are enough to keep him safe, which allow him to grab Ashtabula and Lake Counties as well as parts of Geauga and Cuyahoga from LaTourette’s old district. Mix it all together and you get a 59% Obama seat.

OH-16 (Bright Green): John Boccieri (D)

The most junior Democrat in the region, fittingly, gets the leftovers district. Those leftovers consist of Stark (Canton) and Portage (Kent) Counties, which Obama carried, as well as Carroll and part of Geauga, which McCain carried. Throw in the rest of Cuyahoga and Mahoning, and you get a 53% Obama district, which although no sure thing is better than Boccieri’s old district.

Steve LaTourette, of course, is the odd man out. Where would he run? He lives in Sutton’s district, but the geography and the partisan numbers favor Betty Sue there. Most of his old district is in Ryan’s, but that configuration voted for Obama almost 3:2. Boccieri’s district is the most Republican-friendly, but he only represented about 8% of this area previously. Whatever option he chooses, it’s an uphill fight.

The Bottom Line: 4 Safe R, 1 Lean R (3), 3 Lean D (5, 6, 16), 2 Likely D (1, 15), 6 Safe D  

MO-Sen: AFSCME just threw down another hefty hunk of cash, pouring $700K into radio ads attacking Roy Blunt for voting against minimum wage hikes. According to The Hill, the union says that the ad is airing “statewide on over 200 radio stations outside the St. Louis and Kansas City media markets.”

NH-Sen: Despite leading in the polls, AG Kelly Ayotte is joining third-party groups and launching a TV ad of her own attacking rival Bill Binnie as a “liberal.” This comes in response to Binnie’s new ad attacking Ayotte for her handling of the FRM scandal. NWOTSOTB, though Binnie’s latest purchase is reportedly for some $430K.

WI-Sen: It’s hard to keep up with Rand Paul and Sharron Angle, but really, the lamestream media is being unfair to Ron Johnson, who definitely deserves a starting spot on the Wingnut 9. Watch him bash this stand-up double into deep right field:

There’s a reason Greenland was called Greenland. It was actually green at one point in time. And it’s been, since, it’s a whole lot whiter now.

FL-22: Absolute fucking maniac – and absolute fucking whiner – Allen West has been decrying the “Gestapo-like intimidation tactics” he fantasizes have been deployed by Ron Klein, Nancy Pelosi, and Barack Obama. What are his dark Orwellian warnings about? The fact that the Klein campaign has been sending a video tracker to West’s events. Yep, exactly like the Holocaust. Good comparison to be making in Palm Beach.

IA-01: The American Future Fund, a conservative 501(c)4, claims it’s preparing to spend “six figures” against Rep. Bruce Braley (D), not a guy generally considered to be vulnerable. Part of that is because Braley leads his opponent, lawyer and former congressional staffer Ben Lange, $630K to $110K in cash-on-hand. Let’s see if they actually follow through, though.

MO-04: For the first time since the mid-90s, the Missouri Farm Bureau’s political arm, FARM-PAC, is not endorsing Ike Skelton – and in fact, they’re supporting Republican Vicky Hartzler. FARM-PAC cited Skelton’s vote in favor of cap-and-trade as the main reason for their change of heart. The Skelton campaign did, however, announce they received the backing from another agricultural group, the Missouri Corn Growers Association.

ND-AL: Rep. Earl Pomeroy is out with a new ad attacking Republican Rick Berg for his long (28-year) tenure in the North Dakota state lege, as well as his support for privatizing Social Security. NWOTSOTB.

NM-02: Defenders of Wildlife has re-upped its ad buy against Steve Pearce, who is attempting a comeback bid against Rep. Harry Teague, throwing down another $125K. It’s not clear whether this is the same ad from a couple of weeks ago, which one station refused to air.

NJ-03: Props to Jane Roh of the Courier-Post, a paper which serves southern New Jersey. She exposes Republican Jon Runyan’s first television ad for the video press release that it is, reporting that it’s a mere $8,400 (on FOX News and CNN), but notes – do I detect a touch of mockery here? – that it’s “expected to swell to $12,500 this week.” This is pretty much a joke buy anywhere, but in the NYC media market, this doesn’t even rate with late-night infomercials.

NY-13: Rudy Giuliani’s lent all kinds of support to Mike Grimm in his primary against Michael Allegretti, and now he’s cut an ad for him as well, touting Grimm’s experience with terrorism as a “9/11 first responder.” I wonder if that’s the tie that binds these two men, or if Rudy is making some long-term play against the entrenched GOP interests on Staten Island which, for whatever reason, have been backing Allegretti. Anyhow, NWOTSOTB, and incidentally, the FBI (and the Marines) have expressed displeasure with similar Grimm ads in the past.

NY-29: Teabagger Janice Volk failed to collect the necessary signatures to appear on the ballot as an independent… but now says she’ll run as a write-in. Whatever. Anyhow, has anyone heard anything – anything at all – about Dem Matthew Zeller?

OH-18: The Ohio Elections Commission ruled late last week that Rep. Zack Space made false statements about Republican opponent Bob Gibbs in an attack ad, but is issuing no penalty – not even a letter of reprimand. Sort of makes you wonder why this commission exists in the first place. I also find it weird that Ohio even has some body that tries to act as a referee for political campaigns. Isn’t that what voting is for?

Redistricting: Redistricting geeks, rejoice! Thanks to some key volunteer help, Dave’s Redistricting App now has partisan data for North Carolina and New Mexico. But more help is needed to get the remaining states online. Check out Dave’s diary to see how you can help.

I know it’s been almost 6 months since my last post. Time flies when you’re…working a lot; ok, I was having some fun, too.

A couple of people have sent in partisan data, which I’ve uploaded. North Carolina has been there since early June (thanks Peter!), and New Mexico is there today (thanks Neil!). And I fixed the VTD data for Indiana. (Thanks to all of you who reported that bug.)

Also, I’m ready to accept other partisan data from volunteers! Here’s how.

If you are able to track down 2008 presidential data that somewhat matches the 2000 voting districts (or census block groups) for a state, you can put that data in a .CSV file (comma separated values) and email it to me. The trick is that voting districts often change and many have between 2000 and 2008. Some states don’t have voting districts published by the Census Bureau, so that’s a problem. If you want to do more work, you can try to map the 2008 data back through any changes from the 2000 voting districts.

For CA, NY and TX, JeffMd created new shapes to (roughly) match 2008 voting districts. In general, I would not recommend this.

Anyway, check out the web page describing what to do and we can get more partisan data in the app so we can have more fun until the new 2010 census data comes out.

BTW, I will attempt to make some improvements to the app and will get 2010 census data in there after it comes out.

Thanks!

This is my first attempt at redistricting Illinois.  I drew this map assuming that Governor Pat Quinn wins re-election and Democrats control the redistricting trifecta.  SSPers know, of course, that Pat Quinn trails in the high single-digits in the most recent polls, so full Democratic control remains in doubt.  

Illinois is predicted to lose a congressional seat in 2012, going from 19 to 18 seats.  This necessitated the drawing together of two incumbents, Peter Roskam and Mike Quigley.  Illinois also currently has 4 VRA districts (3 African-American, 1 Hispanic) all based in the City of Chicago.  I preserved all 4 districts, and I felt that the sharp Hispanic growth required the creation of another majority Hispanic district.  Therefore, my map has 5 Minority-Majority districts.  

Chicago Area

District 1 (Golden Yellow) Pop. 716,433; 56% Black, 36% White, 6% Hispanic – Bobby Rush (D)

Located in the Heart of Chicago’s South Side, the 1st District remains mostly the same, except that it grows a bit in area and becomes dramatically less Black (formerly 65%, now 56%), but this is all a result of population loss in that area.  Still heavily Black and strongly Democratic. Obama ~ 80% – 85%

District 2 (Dark Blue) Pop. 719,391; 55% Black, 32% White, 12% Hispanic – Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D)

The South Side’s other Majority Black district, the 2nd also stays mostly the same, but expands in area and becomes a bit less Black.  It takes in some of the Cook County portion of Judy Biggert’s current district, but still remains the most Democratic district in Illinois.  Obama ~ 85% – 90%

District 3 (Red) Pop. 712,342; 63% Hispanic, 29% White, 5% Black – OPEN (D)

Unlike most of the other ethnic groups in the city, Chicago’s Hispanic population is growing rapidly.  Currently there is only one Majority Hispanic district in Illinois, represented by Luis Gutierrez. The rapid growth, as well as the large distance between the two main Latino enclaves, led me to create two Hispanic majority districts.  The 3rd, located on the South and West sides of the City and including Cicero, Berwyn, and Burbank, is predominantly Mexican.  Gutierrez, this area’s current Congressman, is Puerto Rican and lives on the North Side.  The split will allow the Mexican Community to have it’s own voice in Congress.

Obama ~ 70% – 75%

District 4 (Turquoise Blue) Pop. 716,176; 57% Hispanic, 30% White, 5% Black – Luis Gutierrez (D)

This is Chicago’s second majority Hispanic District.  It is primarily Puerto Rican and is located just North and West of the Loop.  It is reasonably compact (much better than the previous 4th, at least) and includes Rep. Gutierrez’s home.  He would likely be very happy with this district.  It remains strongly Democratic. Obama ~ 70% – 75%

District 5 (Purple) Pop. 718,061; 74% White, 14% Hispanic, 8% Asian – Mike Quigley (D) + Peter Roskam (R)

The new 5th District draws together two relatively new Congressman, Democrat Mike Quigley of Chicago and Republican Peter Roskam of DuPage County.  Roskam’s District was very evenly divided when he won his first term in 2006, but in 2008 it gave President Obama 56% of the vote.  The addition of strongly Democrat-leaning parts of Northern Chicago makes the 5th a likely to safe Democrat district, and Quigley should beat Roskam fairly easily.  Obama ~ 60% – 65%

District 6 (Gray) Pop. 718,677; 54% Black, 35% White, 5% Hispanic – Danny Davis (D)

Danny Davis’s District bled population over the last decade, and therefore had to increase dramatically in size.  It is the last of Chicago’s 3 majority Black districts, and it stretches from Downtown/The Loop out to the Cook County – DuPage County border, and South to include more conservative suburbs formerly represented by Dan Lipinski.  At 54% Black, it is still strongly Democratic.  Obama ~ 80% – 85%

District 7 (Pink) Pop. 720,868; 64% White, 13% Asian, 13% Hispanic – Jan Schakowsky (D)

This new district takes up much of North Chicago along the lakeshore, including Lakeview, the Midwest’s largest gay district.  Much of this area was formerly in Mike Quigley’s district, but will probably be happier with a strong Liberal like Schakowsky.  It also includes her home in Evanston, some North-Western suburbs like Des Plaines and Park Ridge, and other Democrat leaning areas north of the city.  It should be safely Democratic.  Obama ~ 70% – 75%

Collar Counties/Chicago Exurbs

District 8 (Violet/Purplish Blue) Pop. 718,040; 74% White, 14% Hispanic, 7% Asian – Melissa Bean (D)

Covers a similar territory to Bean’s old district, but now takes in more of Lake and Cook Counties and much less of McHenry County.  Moves closer to Chicago, so I would guess that it becomes somewhat more Democratic.  Likely still a narrowly Dem-leaning swing district.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

District 9  (Bright Green) Pop. 715,049; 66% White, 18% Hispanic, 10% Asian – Dan Seals (D) or Bob Dold (R)

Mark Kirk’s elusive North Shore district moves a little more into Cook County, and becomes 15% less White in the process (going from 81% to 66%).  It now includes Dan Seals’ home in Willmette, as well as Highland Park, Lake Forest, and Waukegan in Lake County.  If Dan Seals doesn’t win this district in 2010, another Democrat will in 2012.  Obama ~ 65% – 70%

District 10  (Tan) Pop. 712,389; 73% White, 11% Hispanic, 9% Asian – Judy Biggert (R) + Dan Lipinski (D)

This district strongly resembles Judy Biggert’s old 13th, but it was drawn with ConservaDem Dan Lipinski in mind.  It includes a portion of his old urban-suburban district, as well as parts of Will and DuPage counties, centered mainly around Naperville.  If faced with a Lipinski matchup in 2012, Biggert would probably opt to retire, but if not, or if Republicans can manage to find a moderate State legislator to run, Republicans could hold this district.  But Lipinski, a social-conservative who is already well known in the area, would have a significant chance of winning here.  Obama ~ 50% – 55%

District 11 (Olive Green) Pop. 718,631; 66% White, 24% Hispanic, 6% Black – Bill Foster (D) OR Randy Hultgren (R)

One of the few Districts in Illinois that has been experiencing steady growth over the past decade, Bill Foster’s district had to shed it’s Western rural counties, but is still centered around Kane, Kendall, and Dekalb Counties.  It includes the fast growing, Democrat-leaning, minority-majority city of Aurora, as well as Geneva, Elgin, and DeKalb. Becomes slightly more Democratic, which should help Foster out, though the district is already trending blue.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

Rural Illinois

District 12 (Dark Green) Pop. 712,202; 80% White, 11% Hispanic, 6% Black – Don Manzullo (R)

Manzullo’s district stays mostly the same (centered around Rockford), but loses rural Carrol, Ogle, and Whiteside Counties in exchange for almost all of McHenry.  Maybe moves slightly left, but not drastically, and not enough to dislodge Manzullo.  Obama ~ 50% – 55%

District 13 (Periwinkle Blue)  Pop. 719,998; 76% White, 12% Hispanic, 9% Black – Debbie Halvorson (D) OR Adam Kizinger (R)

The 14th takes in all of Kankakee County, most of Will County, and most of LaSalle County.  It loses the strange shaped arm that stretched South into McLean County and becomes much more compact.  Minority growth in the Joliet area makes this district a bit more Democratic, and should be a Democratic hold in a neutral year.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

District 14 (Sky Blue) Pop. 717,188; 90% White, 4% Hispanic, 3% Black – Aaron Schock (R)

I had to draw Aaron Schock’s home in Peoria out of his district and into Phil Hare’s but in exchange I gave him a district that is a bit more Republican.  It streches South from the Iowa border to strongly Republican Tazewell County, then to the Springfield area, and finally West to include all of McLean County.  Should be safely Republican.  Obama ~ 45%

District 15 (Orange) Pop. 717,498; 88% White, 6% Black, 3% Hispanic – Timothy Johnson (R)

Stays almost exactly the same, covers the same area along the Indiana border and leans strongly Republican.  Obama ~ 45% – 50%

District 16 (Dark Purple)  Pop. 716,746; 83% White, 9% Black, 4% Hispanic – Phil Hare (D)  

This district is now much more compact than it used to be. It includes the Illinois portion of the Quad Cities, Peoria, and a small portion of Springfield, as well as a large swath of rural farming counties along the Iowa border.  Should be safe for Hare, though the area is trending Republican.  Obama ~ 55% – 60%

District 17 (Green) Pop. 717,602; 81% White, 15% Black, 2% Hispanic – Jerry Costello (D)

I tried to shore up Costello’s district as much as possible, but it’s still more or less the same.  It loses some of it’s far Southern counties along the Kentucky border that have been trending Republican, and gains Macoupin and Montgomery Counties, both of which were won by Obama. Still, the needle doesn’t move too much.  Obama ~ 55%

District 18 (Yellow) Pop. 711,505 89% White, 7% Black, 2% Hispanic – John Shimkus (R)

Still the most Republican district in Illinois, Shimkus’s doesn’t change much.  It’s hard to believe this district was once represented by Dick Durbin.  Obama ~ 40% – 45%

Here is my first attempt at redistricting New Jersey.

Here is a 10-2 NJ plan that is fairly compact, preserves communities of interest, and still has 2 VRA districts. It only splits a small handful of cities, and minimizes splitting counties.

Unlike some other states, NJ has just barely enough minorities in the same place to fill a VRA district(and it gets harder every census), so VRA districts can’t be used to soak up Republican votes.

Note: Obama vs McCain numbers for new districts don’t count votes for other candidats, so they always add up to 100%.

1st District Frank LoBiondo (R) BLUE

Pinelands, Atlantic City area

New 56%O 44%M Old 54%O 45%M

67% White, 15% Black, 13% Hispanic, 3% Asian

In 2008 Frank LoBiondo was reelected with 62% of the vote in a district that gave Obama 54%. Do the math, how Democratic will it have to be to dislodge him. At least now at 56% Obama the district is all but certain to go Democratic after LoBiondo retires (he’s 64). The outermost townships of Camden and Gloucester are more rural than the rest of their counties, but they are just as Democratic. (So I lied, as long as LoBiondo sticks around it’s not 10-2).

2nd District Rob Andrews (D), John Adler (D) GREEN

Camden area

New 63%O 37%M Old 65%O 34%M

70% White, 15% Black, 10% Hispanic, 4% Asian

Rob Andrews and John Adler are my least favorite Democratic Congressmen from NJ, so I don’t mind putting both of them into the same district. It’s 2 points less Democratic, to help out the 1st.

3rd District Rush Holt (D) PURPLE

Mount Laurel, Trenton, Princeton

New 63%O 37%M Old 52%O 47%M

67% White, 18% Black, 9% Hispanic, 5% Asian

Rush Holt is my favorite Democratic Congressman, so I hate doing this to him. His district (the old 12th) is split almost perfectly in 2, so he gets to pick which half he wants. This district follows the Delaware River from Palmyra to Frenchtown. Obama won even the Hunterdon part of this district.

4th District Chris Smith (R) RED

Ocean county, southern Monmouth County

New 41%O 59%M Old 47%O 52%M

87% White, 3% Black, 7% Hispanic, 2% Asian

There is no need to split Ocean County because it is so uniformly Republican. Just add some like-minded southern Monmouth. About 2/3 of Smith’s district is already in Monmouth and Ocean, so this isn’t a big change for him. Now the Mercer and Burlington parts of his district can go in a Democratic district where they belong. Bill Clinton probably won it in 1996.

5th District Rush Holt? (D) YELLOW

Brunswicks, Windsors, Franklin, Bridgewater

New 61%O 39%M Old 58%O 41%M

61% White, 9% Black, 12% Hispanic, 17% Asian

The well-educated, affluent, heavily-Democratic suburbs of Central NJ. It’s more Democratic because it loses the arms extending into Hunterdon and Monmouth. Rush Holt will probably take this district so John Adler can have the 3rd.

6th District Frank Pallone (D) TURQUOISE

Lake Como to most of Edison

New 55%O 45%M Old 60%O 39%M

63% White, 9% Black, 16% Hispanic, 11% Asian

It loses some Democratic strength because it takes more of Monmouth, but it’s still Democratic enough. This piece of Monmouth has a majority of the county’s population and Obama won it.

7th District Rodney Frehlinghuysen (R) GRAY

Morristown, Plainfield, Linden

New 56%O 44%M Old 7th: 51%O 48%M — Old 11th: 45%O 54%M

63% White, 11% Black, 15% Hispanic, 10% Asian

This district contains all of Union that’s not in a VRA district, and piece of Morris that Obama lost by 300 votes (out of 100,000), and fairly Democratic pieces of Somerset, Middlesex, and Essex. At last, North Plainfield, Plainfiled, and South Plainfield are all in the same district! It has a finger protrude west into Dover and Wharton so those Democratic towns don’t go to waste. Rodney F has not represented most of this territory before, so it will be difficult for him to win it. Linda Stender or Ed Potosnak should win it fairly easily.

8th District Donald Payne (D) INDIGO

Newark, Oranges, Roselle

New 82%O 18%M Old 87%O 13%M

26% White, 51% Black, 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian

The black VRA district. It loses heavily Democratic and white Linden and Rahway, and takes in Republican-leaning Kenilworth and Nutley.

9th District Albio Sires (D)CYAN

Elizabeth, Hoboken, Kearny

New 72%O 28%M Old 75%O 24%M

34% White, 7% Black, 49% Hispanic, 8% Asian

The Hispanic VRA district. It no longer reaches into Middlesex County, that territory is saved for a Democrat who needs it more.

10th District Steve Rothman (D) PINK

Secaucus, most of Bergen

New 58%O 42%M Old 61%O 38%M

60% White, 6% Black, 17% Hispanic, 15% Asian

It extends to the northern border because of slow population growth. This makes it 3 points less Democratic. That’s still Democratic enough.

11th District Bill Pascrell (D) LIME

West Orange, Paterson, Ridgewood

New 56%O 44%M Old 63%O 36%M

57% White, 9% Black, 26% Hispanic, 7% Asian

Just like the 10th, it extends to the northern border and becomes less Democratic. It’s still Paterson-centric.

12th District Scott Garrett (R), Leonard lance (R) SKY BLUE

northwest NJ

New 42%O 58%M Old 5th: 45%O 54%M

86% White, 2% Black, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian

All of Sussex and Warren. Parts of Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris and Passaic. Any territory in NW NJ that is remotely Democratic has been drawn into a different district.

Republican Gerrymander

1st District Rob Andrews (D) BLUE

Camden and Burlington area

New 69%O 31%M Old 65%O 34%M

63% White, 21% Black, 11% Hispanic, 4% Asian

The existing 1st was designed to pack in as much Democratic territory as possible. I just did a better job. This is the only Dem district that’s more than 50% white.

2nd District Frank LoBiondo (R) GREEN

Pinelands, Bay shore, Vineland/Millville, Cape May

New 53%O 47%M Old 54%O 45%M

75% White, 11% Black, 10% Hispanic, 3% Asian

It loses Atlantic City and Pleasantville to make it more Republican, and make up for it gaining Gloucester County.

3rd District John Adler? (D) PURPLE

Atlantic City, Toms River, Delran

New 49.7%O 50.3%M Old 52%O 47%M

79% White, 9% Black, 7% Hispanic, 4% Asian

This district is dominated by Ocean County, and doesn’t have anywhere for a Democrat to build a base.

4th District Chris Smith (R) RED

Hamilton, Old Bridge, Springfield

New 53%O 47%M Old 47%O 52%M

74% White, 6% Black, 9% Hispanic, 10% Asian

Chris Smith always outperforms his district’s PVI, especially in Hamilton (the southwesternmost town in this district). In 2008 Hamilton gave 55% of its vote to Obama and 68% of its vote to Smith. Hamilton (pop. 86k) should be enough of an anchor for Smith to hold down the rest of this swing district.

5th District Rush Holt (D) SKY BLUE

Trenton, New Brunswick, Plainfield

New 72%O 28%M Old 58%O 41%M

44% White, 21% Black, 15% Hispanic, 18% Asian

Democratic Central NJ gets packed in like never before. It’s minority-majority, which is hard to believe from the part where I live. Pretend this district has the most Democratic possible combination of Edison and Woodbridge, while Chris Smith gets the rest of Edison and Woodbridge.

6th District Frank Pallone (D) TURQUOISE

Monmouth and northern Ocean

New 45%O 55%M Old 60%O 39%M

78% White, 7% Black, 10% Hispanic, 3% Asian

It’s probably too Republican for Pallone to hold it. And most of it is territory he has not represented before.

7th District Leonard Lance (R) GRAY

Flemington, Somerville, Morristown, West Orange

New 49%O 51%M Old 7th: 51%O 48%M — Old 11th: 45%O 54%M

76% White, 4% Black, 9% Hispanic, 10% Asian

A more Republican version of the current 7th district.

8th District Donald Payne (D) PINK

Newark, Oranges, Roselle

New 84%O 16%M Old 87%O 13%M

23% White, 53% Black, 17% Hispanic, 5% Asian

It only became less Democratic because it lost population and had to expand. It still packs in blacks and white Democrats.

9th District Albio Sires (D)CYAN

Elizabeth, Hoboken, Union City

New 74%O 26%M Old 75%O 24%M

30% White, 8% Black, 53% Hispanic, 8% Asian

Not that different from the existing 13th.

10th District Steve Rothman (D) vs Bill Pascrell (D) INDIGO

Paterson, Hackensack, Englewood

New 69%O 31%M Old 8th: 63%O 36%M — Old 9th: 61%O 38%M

44% White, 21% Black, 15% Hispanic, 18% Asian

The most Democratic parts of the existing 8th and 9th get packed into 1 district.

11th District Rodney Frehlinghuysen (R) LIME

Warren County to Secaucus

New 51%O 49%M Old 45%O 54%M

77% White, 3% Black, 12% Hispanic, 7% Asian

It takes in northern Essex, southern Bergen, and Secaucus and part of Kearny. Morris and Warren should be enough to keep it Republican at the Congressional level. If it’s not Republican enough for you then trade some territory with the 12th, which has some Republican strength to spare.

12th District Scott Garrett (R) YELLOW

Sussex to Alpine

New 46%O 54%M Old 5th: 45%O 54%M

83% White, 2% Black, 7% Hispanic, 8% Asian

Everything along NJ’s northern border.

• CO-Sen: It looks like the Michael Bennet camp, and his Beltway backers, are taking the recent polling surge by Andrew Romanoff in the Dem Senate primary, very seriously. Barack Obama just did a remote appearance on behalf of Bennet, for five minutes at a Bennet town hall.

• KY-Sen: Well, he finally got around to it. It was buried in the fifth and final paragraph of a press release. Nevertheless, Dan Mongiardo finally endorsed Dem primary victor Jack Conway. Despite previous rumors that he was holding out on his endorsement to get his $77K campaign debt paid off, a Mongiardo spokesperson says he didn’t receive anything in exchange for the nod.

• PA-Sen: Bill Clinton will be in Scranton to campaign for Joe Sestak next Tuesday. Frankly, that’s a really good fit of candidate, backer, and locale. I wonder if Paul Kanjorski will be allowed to tag along, though? Seems like he could use some Clinton love, too. (No, not that kind of Clinton love.) On the GOP side, Pat Toomey got some campaign fundraising help in Philly from moderate Maine GOP Senator Susan “Comrade of the Month” Collins, who seems to have forgiven or conveniently forgotten all those Club for Growth attempts to knife her in the back.

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray seems to be taking a page from the John Hickenlooper campaign in Colorado, dropping a huge amount of money right now on advertising reservations, all the way through November, while they’re still cheap. She spent $3.4 million, nearly half her CoH, on ad buys in July. She can count on her coffers being replenished, though, as Barack Obama will be hosting a fundraiser for her later this month.

• WI-Sen: Dueling ads in Wisconsin. Russ Feingold is out with a sobering ad rattling his saber at Wall Street, while Ron Johnson levels accusations of being a “career politician” at Feingold. Double NWOTSOTB.

• CO-Gov: Is there blood here in the water, or what? Colorado Ethics Watch just filed a complaint with the state bar, which could lead to disciplinary action against Scott McInnis’s license to practice law in Colorado, over his plagiarism scandal. McInnis’s former campaign manager (until last December, so he was out long before the scandal) also just asked McInnis for a refund of all the contributions he’s given him. The DGA is also starting to pour money into this race, striking while the iron is hot; they’ve plowed $100K into a new third-party group airing a new anti-McInnis attack ad. And if you were thinking that Dan Maes might turn out to be a reasonable alternative to McInnis, guess again. He ventured not just into Michele Bachmann territory (about how we’ll all have to live in tenements and take mass transit to work) but clear into UN-black-helicopters-are-fluoridating-my-water territory. And what’s the nerve center of the one-world-government’s scurrilous plot against Coloradan sovereignty? Denver’s program for public bike shares and more showers for bike-riding commuters!!!!1!

“At first, I thought, ‘Gosh, public transportation, what’s wrong with that, and what’s wrong with people parking their cars and riding their bikes? And what’s wrong with incentives for green cars?’ But if you do your homework and research, you realize ICLEI is part of a greater strategy to rein in American cities under a United Nations treaty.”

• GA-Gov: This seems like a big Deal for Nathan: the third-place finisher in the gubernatorial primary, state Sen. Eric Johnson, is backing ex-Rep. Nathan Deal in the runoff. (Oddly, Johnson hasn’t said anything about it himself, but Rep. Jack Kingston, another Johnson backer-turned-Deal backer, made the announcement.) Johnson’s support should help Deal in the Savannah area, where Johnson seems to have a strong base.

• MD-Gov: I wonder if Sarah Palin is playing three-dimensional chess here, in some sort of strange gambit to help Bob Ehrlich in the general election… or just playing tic-tac-toe, and losing badly at it. At any rate, she endorsed Ehrlich’s barely-registering primary rival, businessman Brian Murphy, in the GOP gubernatorial primary. (Which, if you think about it, doesn’t jibe at all with her endorsement of centrist and likely victor Terry Branstad in Iowa instead of wingnut Bob Vander Plaats… but then, Maryland’s not an early presidential state.) Ehrlich is now publicly doing the happy dance over her endorsement of his rival, saying that it just confirms his moderate credentials for the general, where he has a shot at knocking off incumbent Dem Martin O’Malley.

• AZ-01: Rogue dentist Paul Gosar has a lead in the Republican primary in AZ-01 for the right to take on freshman Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, if his own internal is to be believed. The poll from Moore Info puts him at 30, with ’08 candidate Sydney Hay at 10, Some Dude Bradley Beauchamp at 7, and, surprisingly, former state Sen. majority leader Rusty Bowers back at 6. Gosar seems to have consolidated many big-name movement conservatives behind him, ranging from Sarah Palin to Joe Arpaio. My main question, though, is: Sydney Hay is running again?!? Why weren’t we informed? (You may remember her legacy of fail from her 2008 run.)

• AZ-03: This is at least the second time a childless GOP candidate has gotten busted for playing up his “family man” credentials by romping with children in advertising (the first time was Kevin Yoder in KS-03). At least Yoder was able to claim the kids were his nieces and nephews… Ben Quayle apparently had to borrow some of his aides’ kids for his photo shoot.

• IL-17: After seemingly no one found their internal poll from last week credible (which gave the previously-unheralded, if not unknown, Bobby Schilling a lead over Democratic Rep. Phil Hare), there’s another Republican poll out that seems to at least be on the same temporal plane as reality, in this swing district where the GOP hasn’t competed hard in a while. POS (on behalf of a state party committee… Magellan did the Schilling internal) gives Hare a 33-31 lead over the political novice and pizza restauranteur. The poll also gives 7% support to the Green Party candidate, which somehow doesn’t seem likely to hold.

• WV-01: As heartburn-inducing Mike Oliverio will probably be in terms of his voting record, here’s some confirmation that we at least got an electoral upgrade here from the guy he defeated in the Dem primary, Rep. Alan Mollohan, who had ethical clouds following him and seemed to be phoning in his campaign. Oliverio is out with a new internal from Hamilton Campaigns that gives him a 52-36 lead over GOP opponent David McKinley. With Joe Manchin at the top of the ticket in a November special election, now, too, here’s one Tossup seat where our odds seem to be getting noticeably better. (As a bonus, they find Manchin leading John Raese 62-30 in the district, which is West Virginia’s reddest.)

• DCCC: CQ looks at the DCCC’s attempts to enforce dues-payment this cycle. While their “Frontline” members (the ones in the trickiest races) are exempt from paying dues, they’re winding up giving de facto passes to a number of other vulnerable incumbents, not having had any luck at stopping them from hoarding their own cash in preparation for tough races. 88 House Dems haven’t paid any dues at all this cycle, while many others are in arrears. There’s also, buried in the article, a statement that the DCCC doesn’t plan to further extend its Frontline program, even as the number of potentially vulnerable Dems seems to keep increasing.

• California: For people who just can’t get enough campaign finance reports, the Sacramento Bee has a helpful table of filings for all the candidates for the downballot statewide races. Dems have a cash on hand lead in most races, except for two (Secretary of State and Insurance Commissioner). It’s particularly pronounced in the Lt. Governor race, where Gavin Newsom leads GOP incumbent Abel Maldonado $495K to $91K. In the very tight AG’s race (also the downballot race that’s seen by far the most expenditures), Dem Kamala Harris leads GOPer Steve Cooley $186K to $121K (and Cooley also has $170K in debt).

• Redistricting: Ohio, unfortunately, won’t be having a referendum on a constitutional amendment on the ballot in November, that would limit parties’ ability to gerrymander by requiring bipartisan support for new maps. The problem? The parties in the state legislature couldn’t agree on the exact framework for the plan. At least there’s good news on the better-districts front in New York, where the state Senate just passed legislation that will make sure that incarcerated persons are counted in their home communities, when legislative lines are redrawn next year.

• Rasmussen:

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 31%, Bill McCollum (R) 27%, Bud Chiles (I) 20%

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 31%, Rick Scott (R) 35%, Bud Chiles (I) 16%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 40%, Rob Portman (R) 44%

So yeah, I’ve been working on a map of the state legislature for a while. I had one ready months ago, but there were a few things I hated about it, so I didn’t post it. I finally came up with something that satisfies me about 80-90%.

My goals were as follows:

– As many Democrats as possible, with a focus on protecting incumbent Democrats.

-Make the Dem districts as liberal as possible to aid in getting some real liberal legislation through.

– As few county-crossings as possible, to avoid a potential court challenge. I also tried to be mindful of municipal and cultural boundaries, although in Maryland it’s really the counties that people focus on.

– The same or more majority-black districts.

So, without further ado, here we go.

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District 1: Western Maryland: Garrett, Allegany, and Washington (part) Counties

New district: 93% white, 33% Obama (current 32% Obama)

1A – all of Garrett, part of Allegany: 98% white, 28% Obama (current 27% Obama)

1B – part of allegany: 89% white, 41% Obama (current 34% Obama)

1C – part of Allegany, part of Washington: 93% white, 34% Obama (current 36% Obama)

Current 1C was drawn to help former speaker Casper R. Taylor, but now that he’s gone we should put all of our effort into helping Kevin Kelly by tying Cumberland and Frostburg together.

District 2: Washington County

New district: 83% white, 44% Obama (current 44% Obama)

2A – Hagerstown periphery: 84% white, 42% Obama (current 39% Obama)

2B – Southern and Eastern Washington County: 84% white, 38% Obama (current 40% Obama)

2C – Hagerstown: 79% white, 57% Obama (current 55% Obama)

2A and 2C get more Democratic, maybe someday the Senate district and 2A could be within reach.

District 3: Frederick County (including city of Frederick)

New district: 70% white, 56% Obama (current 54% Obama)

I got rid of the subdistricts in order to consolidate Democratic support within the district. A Republican or 2 could possibly slip by for the time being, but by 2020 this should be firm Dem territory.

District 4: Frederick, Carroll, and Washington Counties (only a small part of Washington County)

New district: 92% white, 36% Obama (current 37% Obama)

4A – Frederick County (small part of Washington County) – 2 delegates – 92% white, 38% Obama (current 39% Obama)

4B – Carroll County (small part of Frederick County) – 1 delegate – 93% white, 32% Obama (current 33% Obama)

District 5: Carroll County

New district: 91% white, 33% Obama (current 33% Obama)

I moved the district completely into Carroll County (to make it more compact and to give Carroll County a whole district to call its own). Got rid of subdistricts, since Carroll County is pretty uniform, so they’d be pointless.

District 6: Baltimore County (southeastern)

New district: 79% white, 43%-46% Obama (somewhere in that range) (current 45% Obama)

This one I struggled with a lot. I ultimately decided to just keep it somewhat as is for a number of reasons. First, this district is blue-collar, and even making it 60% Obama would still give people that impression, so the reps are not likely to be liberals no matter what (and it’s thus better to shore up some surrounding districts). Second, the Republican bench is weak as hell here, and the district votes as much as 70-80% for local Democrats, so I still like our chances here. Third, this was where Glendenning’s plan was shot down in 2002, so I don’t want to mess with this district much. Fourth, adding a large part of the city could potentially mean the Dem nominee (or nominees) would be African-American, which could potentially lead to a loss in this district even if you make it 55-60% Obama-supporting. Thus, it’s better to just leave sort of as-is and just write it off if necessary.

District 7 – Baltimore and Carroll Counties

New district: 90% white, 35% Obama (current 39%)

Basically a combination of the old 7 and the old 5B.

District 8 – Baltimore County and Baltimore City

New district: 59% white, 71% Obama (current 48% Obama)

Finally, a real Baltimore liberal district. Todd Schuler currently represents the 8th (which voted for McCain), and he’s the only delegate in the Baltimore area who openly supports gay marriage. He’s not running for reelection, but he could def have his old seat back if he wants it.

District 9 – Howard County (eastern)

New district: 64% white, 61% Obama (current 43% Obama)

Completely moved from one side of Howard to another. Should add 3 new Dem delegates and one new Dem senator to the caucus, and even if not right away, Republicans will always be on defense here.

District 10 – West Baltimore County

New District: 53% black, 74% Obama (current 87% Obama)

I don’t like how the current district packs black votes (this may be a remnant of an earlier time when this was necessary), so I made a district that the current representatives would be very happy with, as it does not endanger them in any way and it gives black voters more of a voice in surrounding districts.

District 11: West and North Baltimore County

New District: 62% white, 64% Obama (current 66% Obama)

Similar to before, but covering a larger territory to make District 42 more Democratic

District 12: Southwest Baltimore County

New district: 58% white, 61% Obama (current 58% Obama)

No more swingy subdistricts, no more awkward gerrymandering for no reason. District is now more Democratic and completely within one county.

District 13: Howard and Montgomery Counties

New District: 64% white, 60% Obama (current 65% Obama)

Dem support here is growing, and all the incumbents can run here again, so no fears about the drop in performance.

District 14: Montgomery County (east)

New District: 58% white, 65% Obama (current 65% Obama)

District 15: Montgomery County (west)

New District: 68% white, 65% Obama (current 65% Obama)

District 16: Montgomery County (south central)

New district: 43% white, 74% Obama (current 76% Obama)

District 17: Montgomery County (Gaithersburg-Rockville)

New District: 48% white, 71% Obama (current 71% Obama)

District 18: Montgomery County (Bethesda)

New District: 78% white, 74% Obama (current 76% Obama)

District 19: Montgomery County (Olney)

New district: 52% white, 68% Obama (current 68% Obama)

District 20: Montgomery County (Silver Spring)

New district: 32% white, 85% Obama (current 85% Obama)

District 21: Prince George’s County (Laurel-College Park)

New district: 34% black, 78% Obama (current 75% Obama)

No longer stretches into Anne Arundel County. I wanted to make it majority-black, but it’s actually somewhat difficult to get all majority-black districts out of north PG without making the lines too crazy. However, since the district is not currently majority-black, I didn’t worry about it.

District 22 Prince George’s County (Greenbelt-Hyattsville)

New District: 53% black, 88% Obama (current 85% Obama)

District becomes majority-black, as it is not currently.

District 23 Prince George’s County (Bowie)

New district: 58% black, 83% Obama (current 81% Obama)

District is only barely majority-black now, so I made it moreso. Got rid of subdistricts because I don’t know what the point of them was.

District 24 Prince George’s County (Greater Upper Marlboro) and Anne Arundel County (southern rural parts)

New district: 55% black, 72% Obama (current 98% Obama)

I wanted to break up Southern PG County some because it was just insanely packed with black voters. In exchange for making this district less black, 22 is now majority black, and 47 and 23 are more black, so I don’t see how anyone could sue.

District 25 Prince George’s County (Capitol Heights, District Heights)

New District: 83% black, 96% Obama (current 96% Obama)

Did not want to pack this much, but had to.

District 26 Prince George’s County (National Harbor)

New District: 79% black, 93% Obama (current 94% Obama)

District 27 Prince Georges County (Upper Marlboro) and Calvert County

New district: 66% white, 62% Obama (current 71% Obama)

Got rid of sub-districts, took in all of Calvert county instead of just part.

District 28 Charles County (most)

New District: 53% white, 63% Obama (current 63% Obama)

District 29 St. Mary’s County and Charles County (part)

New district: 73% white, 47% Obama (current 44% Obama)

29A – Central and Northern St. Mary’s – 85% white, 39% Obama (current 39% Obama)

29B – Southern St. Mary’s County – 67% white, 48% Obama (current 47% Obama)

29C – West St. Mary’s and part of Charles – 68% white, 53% Obama (current 45% Obama)

No more Calvert County; both current Dem districts get some shoring up.

District 30: Anne Arundel County (Annapolis)

New district: 73% white, 55% Obama (current 52% Obama)

A little more Dem, but stays similar in shape.

District 31: Anne Arundel County (Glen Burnie)

New District: 60% white, 60% Obama (current 40% Obama)

Time for a bonafide liberal district out of AA County.

District 32 Anne Arundel County (Ft. Meade) and Howard County (North Laurel)

New district: 59% white, 62% Obama (current 54% Obama)

Yet another AA County liberal district, with help from Howard of course. Between 31 and 32 there’s more than enough love to go around between incumbent Dems.

District 33 Anne Arundel County (Severna Park)

New District: 87% white, 37% Obama (current 43% Obama)

Loses Dem areas and just becomes one big Rep vote sponge in north AA County. No more subdistricts.

District 34 Cecil and Harford Counties

New district: 88% white, 40% Obama (currently 48% Obama)

34A 1 delegate – Harford County – 86% white, 38% Obama (current 55% Obama)

34B 2 delegates – Cecil County – 89% white, 41% Obama (current 37% Obama)

I wanted liberal districts, so I had to throw this one to the wolves to make 46 more than just a swing district. It was bound to happen anyway though, as conservative Harford and Cecil Counties have had high growth and deserve an extra Rep district, plus the senator is already a Republican, so no big deal. I realigned the subdistricts so that Cecil gets 2 delegates and Harford gets 1 (due to population growth in Cecil). I decided not to divide Cecil further because Del. David Rudolph lives in Rising Sun, which is extremely conservative, so if anything keeping Elkton and Rising Sun together will only help him out (in fact, I moved his district 4 points more Democratic while the district moved 8 points more Republican – amazing).

District 35 Harford County (Bel Air)

New district: 92% white, 30% Obama (current 31%)

Damn, now thaaat’s conservative. Only subdistrict 1A is more conservative. No more subdistricts – they’re unnecessary.

District 36 Cecil, Kent, Queen Anne’s, and Caroline Counties.

New district: 89% white, 39% Obama (currently 41%)

36A – Cecil and Kent Counties – 86% white, 46% Obama

36B – Caroline and Queen Anne’s Counties – 81% white, 36% Obama

36C – Queen Anne’s County – 88% white, 35% Obama

Split into subdistricts because having one huge district doesn’t serve anybody. Plus, that Kent district could elect a Democrat possibly.

District 37: Talbot, Dorchester, part of Somerset, and part of Wicomico (Salisbury) Counties.

New district: 63% white, 49% Obama (currently 46% Obama)

37A – one delegate – Somerset and Wicomico – 50% black, 64% Obama (currently 65% Obama)

37B – two delegates – Somerset, Wicomico, Dorchester, and Talbot – 73% white, 45% Obama (currently 39%)

Yes it does split an extra county, Somerset, but this should be allowed, as it makes creating a majority-black district much easier, splitting fewer towns in the process. Also worth noting is that the subdistrict and senate district as a whole are now potentially winnable.

District 38: Somerset (part), Wicomico (part), and Worcester Counties

New district: 81% white, 40% Obama (currently 41% Obama)

38A – 1 delegate – Somerset and Wicomico – 82% white, 36% Obama (currently 45% Obama)

38B – 2 delegates – Somerset, Wicomico, and Worcester – 80% white, 43% Obama (currently 41% Obama)

This Senate district is sacrificed forever, but the 2 Dems in 38B get a district that’s 2 points safer. 38A becomes a wasteland.

District 39: Montgomery and Frederick Counties (Germantown-Urbana)

New district: 64% white, 63% Obama (currently 71% Obama)

Becomes less Democratic, and goes into Frederick County to pick up some high-growth areas (so as to not waste Dem votes). Remains safe Dem.

District 40: Baltimore City (Northwest)

New district: 64% black, 87% Obama (currently 93% Obama)

District 41: Baltimore City (Western)

New district: 65% black, 90% Obama (currently 87% Obama)

District 42: Baltimore County (Towson-Pikesville)

New District: 68% white, 60% Obama (currently 53% Obama)

Made the district more liberal by grabbing territory to the West. This district sorta hugs the inner beltway.

District 43: Baltimore City (central and Inner Harbor)

New district: 64% black, 86% Obama (currently 91% Obama)

District 44: Baltimore City and Anne Arundel County

New district: 55% black, 70% Obama (currently 92% Obama)

Yeah I have 2 districts that cross the city line, but both are justifiable due to population shifts. At 55% black (and with most Anne Arundel residents registered Republican) the district should be fine for the incumbents.

District 45: Baltimore City (Southeast)

New district: 59% black, 85% Obama (currently 90% Obama)

District 46: Harford County (Edgewood-Aberdeen) and Baltimore County (Middle River-Rossville)

New district: 65% white, 56% Obama (currently 72% Obama in Baltimore City)

This district of course had to be completely moved out of Baltimore City (this may be the last time the city loses a district, as growth is rebounding). Since Harford County has seen so much growth, I dare anyone to show me where it would make more sense for this district to go. Since District 8 has a good margin now, I decided to have the district head towards Rossville to pick up some liberal areas there that would be in 8. That brings the total up to 56% Obama, which should be safe for the 2 incumbents in 34A, plus a new Dem Delegate and a new Dem Senator. As an aside, I do not believe the district was majority black when in the city (as the Obama % is so low and it takes in many majority-white areas), so I don’t think there will be any trouble with VRA.

District 47 Prince George’s County (Cheverly-Glenarden)

New district: 61% black, 93% Obama (currently 92% Obama)

Was only like, 51% black, but the black percentage is shored up to prevent any ruckus over lowered (but still safe) black percentages elsewhere. Was going to create a plurality-hispanic district, but there would have been no point, as there are not enough registered Hispanic voters to make a difference.

So yeah, that’s it, the final breakdown is:

Obama over 60%:  94 Delegates 31 Senators

Obama 55-60%:     10 Delegates  3 Senators

Obama 50-55%:      1 Delegates  0 Senators

Obama 45-50%:      4 Delegates  2 Senators

Obama 40-45%:      9 Delegates  4 Senators

Obama under 40%: 23 Delegates  7 Senators

Obama won in 74% of the delegate seats (66% with over 60%) and 72% of Senate seats (65% with over 60%)

Let me know what you all think.

With Texas looking to gain four seats after the Census, I decided to gerrymander Texas to protect the current twenty Republican representatives. In my plan, I try to create a realistic-looking map and I try to follow the VRA. In my opinion, there will need to be at least two, maybe three new VRA-protected Hispanic-majority seats. My plan draws two, but they’re not slam-dunks for Democrats, unless Arizona’s “papers, please” law mobilizes Hispanics to actually, well, vote.  Republicans will pick up two of the new seats for sure, and probably the third.

With the GOP likely in control of the House, definitely the Senate, a quite possibly the governor’s mansion, this is what I think the trifecta might do.

In the end, only two white Democrats should survive this plan, unless Gene Green gets primaried by an ambitious Hispanic politician. Also, Ciro Rodriguez-who doesn’t even live there in the 23rd anymore-gets a pretty tough district.

In the end, this plan should result in a 26-10 Republican majority, while substantially protecting all Republican incumbents. At the end of the decade, though, this could change. The ideal population numbers are all within a 1000, meaning the districts can change a little to get to the ideal number, 0. There is 3,963 people who I can’t find on the map; they voted 62-38 for McCain.

After reading the write up, scroll down to see my summary at the end.

Please enjoy!

P.S. I worked forever on this, so I will go crazy if I see some b.s. diary go up and bump it down. Y’all know what I’m talking about.

METROPLEX

TX-3 PURPLE

Incumbent: Sam Johnson (R-Plano)

Counties: Collin

Cities of Note: Plano, Allen, Frisco, Wylie, McKinney

Obama: 38%

McCain: 61%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 42-57

White: 76 Black: 5 Hispanic: 10 Asian: 9 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

The district is completely based in Collin County, which has grown tremendously. Johnson is safe and will be succeeded by a conservative Republican if he retires.

TX-5 YELLOW

Incumbent: Jeb Hensarling (R-Dallas)

Counties: Anderson, Henderson, Wood, Rains, Cherokee (Part), Dallas (Part), Tarrant (Part), Kaufman (Part)

Cities of Note: Arlington, Mansfield, Dallas, Mesquite

Obama: 41%

McCain: 58%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 36-63

White: 71 Black: 13 Hispanic: 13 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-12 LIGHT BLUE

Incumbent: Kay Granger (R-Fort Worth)

Counties: Tarrant (Part), Wise (Part), Parker (Part)

Cities of Note: Fort Worth

Obama: 37%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 36-63

White: 67 Black: 5 Hispanic: 23 Asian: 5 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

The district gets smaller, but Granger should continue to be comfortable here.

TX-17 DARK BLUE

Incumbent: VACANT

Counties: Hood, Somerville, Johnson, Hill, Tarrant (Part)

Cities of Note: Arlington

Obama: 35%

McCain: 64%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 32-67

White: 77 Black: 7 Hispanic: 12 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Likely Republican if Edwards runs; Safe Republican otherwise

Chet Edwards must be really annoying for Republicans. I drew a new Arlington-based district, with some of Edwards’ old exurban territory. Like I wrote, part of the DeLaymander’s success was that Democratic incumbents had to run in areas unfamiliar to them. As talented as he is, I don’t see Edwards winning in reflexively Republican urban areas in Tarrant County. Plus, Waco isn’t even in the district, so he’d have to move. This might finally dislodge him.

TX-24 DARK PURPLE

Incumbent: Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell)

Counties: Dallas (Part), Tarrant (Part), Denton (Part)

Cities of Note: Coppell, Irving, Dallas

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 44-55

White: 65 Black: 7 Hispanic: 20 Asian: 8 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-26 GRAY

Incumbent: Michael Burgess (R-Lewisville)

Counties: Denton (Part), Tarrant (Part)

Cities of Note: Denton, Lewisville, Frisco

Obama: 35%

McCain: 64%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 80 Black: 5 Hispanic: 11 Asian: 4 Native American:  0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-30 DALLAS ORANGY COLOR

Incumbent: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas)

Counties: Dallas (Part), Tarrant (Part)

Cities of Note: Dallas, Fort Worth

Obama: 83%

McCain: 17%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 82-18

White: 22 Black: 52 Hispanic: 22 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

The district now goes into Tarrant to take in black-majority precincts to create a new VRA-protected black-majority seat in the Metroplex.

TX-32 ORANGE

Incumbent: Pete Sessions (R-Dallas)

Counties: Rockwall, Dallas (Part)

Cities of Note: Dallas, Garland, Richardson, Rockwall

Obama: 40%

McCain: 58%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 71 Black: 7 Hispanic: 15 Asian: 6 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Adding Rockwall County makes Sessions safer.

TX-33 DARKISH BLUE (Entirely in Dallas)

Incumbent: VACANT SEAT

Counties: Dallas

Cities of Note: Dallas

Obama: 67%

McCain: 32%

White: 25 Black: 17 Hispanic: 53 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

A new Dallas-based VRA-protected Hispanic seat.

HOUSTON AREA

TX-2 GREEN

Incumbent: Ted Poe (R-Humble)

Counties: Harris, Liberty, Orange, Jasper, Orange, Jefferson (Part)

Cities of Note: Humble, Baytown, Beaumont

Obama: 36%

McCain: 63%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 40-60

White: 68 Black: 15 Hispanic: 13 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Poe gets safer by subtracting a chunk of Beaumont and adding Jasper, Newtown, and Orange Counties. The Harris part of the district remains very conservative, so Poe should have no problems here until 2020 redistricting-or a sooner redistricting, if history is a guide.

TX-7 LIGHT GRAY

Incumbent:  VACANT

Counties: Fayette, Harris (Part), Colorado (Part), Fort Bend (Part), Lavaca (Part)

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 40%

McCain: 60%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 70 Black: 8 Hispanic: 14 Asian: 8 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

By splitting remaining territory in Harris, one can make two pretty-safe urban Republican seats based in Houston. A lot of this is Culberson’s old district, but I think he’d run in the new 36th, which contains his home and is one point more Republican. The district might be competitive eventually, but for now it’s safely Republican.

TX-8 LIGHTISH BLUE

Incumbent: Kevin Brady (R-The Woodlands)

Counties: Hardin, Tyler, Polk, San Jacinto, Walker, Grimes, Madison, Leon, Houston, Cherokee, Montgomery (Part), Jefferson (Part)

Cities of Note: Beaumont, Huntsville

Obama: 31%

McCain: 68%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 26-74

White: 75 Black: 13 Hispanic: 9 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

When the district was drawn in the DeLaymander, it was designed to unseat any East Texas Democrats. Now that it has done so, I can stop wasting so many Republican votes. I split Brady’s base in Montgomery, and I added some Democratic precincts in Beaumont. Still, it’s insanely Republican, and Montgomery should continue to grow, making it even more so.

TX-9 TURQUOISE

Incumbent: Al Green (D-Houston)

Counties: Harris (Part), Fort Bend (Part)

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 76%

McCain: 23%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 77-23

White: 17 Black: 37 Hispanic: 34 Asian: 12 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-14 ARMY GREEN

Incumbent: Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson)

Counties: Chambers, Matagorda, Jackson, Calhoun, Brazoria (Part), Harris (Part), Galveston (Part)

Cities of Note: Galveston, Baytown, Texas City, League City, Freeport

Obama: 37%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 33-66

White: 59 Black: 11 Hispanic: 27 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

An urban-suburban-exurban leftovers district, Paul and his nutty views should be safe here.

TX-18 HOUSTON YELLOW

Incumbent: Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-Houston)

Counties: Harris

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 79%

McCain: 20%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 22-77

White: 18 Black: 46 Hispanic: 31 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

The 18th is another safe black-plurality district in Houston.

TX-22 BROWN

Incumbent: Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land)

Counties: Harris (Part), Fort Bend (Part), Brazoria (Part), Galveston (Part)

Cities of Note: Sugar Land, Pearland, Pasadena

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 63 Black: 8 Hispanic: 18 Asian: 11 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

The old DeLay seat, it gets smaller, but is still safe for Olson, who beat a great candidate in Lampson in 2008.

TX-29 GREENISH GRAY

Incumbent: Gene Green (D-Houston)

Counties: Harris

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 66%

McCain: 33%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 62-38

White: 18 Black: 11 Hispanic: 68 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-36 YELLOWY ORANGE

Incumbent: John Culberson (R-Houston)

Counties: Harris

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 39

McCain: 60

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58 (7th District)

White: 64 Black: 8 Hispanic: 20 Asian: 8 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

See TX-7 for analysis.

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO

TX-10 PINK

Incumbent: Michael McCaul (R-Austin)

Counties: Lee, Burleson, Washington, Austin, Waller, Travis (Part), Montgomery (Part), Harris (Part)

Cities of Note: Austin, Conroe

Obama: 36%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 44-54

White: 72 Black: 9 Hispanic: 15 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Seeing how Montgomery County has grown tremendously since 2000, I split it up into two districts to help McCaul. The district loses some precincts in Austin and Harris County. If I were a Republican (I’m not), I’d feel pretty good about McCaul until 2020.

TX-20 BEIGE

Incumbent: Charlie Gonzalez (D-San Antonio)

Counties: Bexar

Cities of Note: San Antonio

Obama: 71%

McCain: 27%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 64-36

White: 14 Black: 7 Hispanic: 77 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

The district gets more Hispanic and more Democratic. Gonzalez should be, and will be, fine.

TX-21 DARK RED

Incumbent: Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio)

Counties: Kendall, Comal, Hays (Part), Travis (Part), Bexar (Part)

Cities of Note: San Antonio, Austin

Obama: 38%

McCain: 61%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 74 Black: 3 Hispanic: 19 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Smith is entrenched and should be fine here. I’d be concerned about Travis County’s booming population down the road, but for now the Travis part is swingy or leans Republican. Safe.

TX-25 PINKISH RED

Incumbent: Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin)

Counties: Travis

Cities of Note: Austin

Obama: 71%

McCain: 27%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 59-40

White: 49 Black: 11 Hispanic: 34 Asian: 5 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

Now entirely in Austin, Doggett is safe as can be.

TX-28 LIGHT URPLE

Incumbent: Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo)

Counties: La Salle, Frio, Atascosa, Webb (Part), Bexar (Part), Wilson (Part), Guadalupe (Part), Caldwell (Part), Bastrop (Part)

Cities of Note: Laredo, San Antonio, San Marcos, Bastrop

Obama: 53%

McCain: 46%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 56-44

White: 36 Black: 4 Hispanic: 57 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

The district changes a lot. It’s a lot more San Antonio heavy, and Cuellar’s home might not be even in the district. Still, it should elect a Hispanic Democrat,

TX-35 PURPLE

Incumbent: Ciro Rodriguez (D-San Antonio)

Counties: Mitchell, Nolan, Sterling, Coke, Runnels, Coleman, Concho, Schleicher, Menard, Sutton, Kimble, Edwards, Real, Kerr, Bandera, Bexar (Part), Guadalupe (Part), Caldwell (Part), Brown (Part)

Cities of Note: San Antonio, Seguin

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

White: 58 Black: 7 Hispanic: 31 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Likely Republican

A new district in the San Antonio area, I combined a strip of San Antonio with Republican-leaning suburbs and parts of rural West Texas. Should be safe, unless Hispanics start voting. Rodriguez lives in the district I think.

FAJITA STRIPS

TX-15 ORANGE

Incumbent: Ruben Hinjosa (D-Mercedes)

Counties: Refugio, Goliad, Bee, Aransas, Jim Wells, Brooks, Hidalgo (Part), Cameron (Part), San Patricio (Part)

Cities of Note: McAllen, Harlingen

Obama: 62%

McCain: 37%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 60-40

White: 17 Black: 1 Hispanic: 81 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

Probably now the most Hispanic district in the nation, this would pass VRA muster because there is a new Hispanic district that borders it, the 34th District. McAllen based, it’s pretty similar to today’s 15th district. The new 15th should get incredibly more Democratic over the next decade if trends continue, especially if McAllen continues to grow.

TX-27 BLUEISH GREEN

Incumbent: Solomon Ortiz (D-Corpus Christi)

Counties: Nueces, Kleberg, Kenedy, Willacy, Cameron

Cities of Note: Brownsville, Corpus Christi

Obama: 53%

McCain: 46%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 27 Black: 2 Hispanic: 69 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-34 LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent:

Counties: Starr, Zapata, Jim Hogg, Duval, McMullen, Live Oak, Karnes, Gonzales, DeWitt, Victoria, Hidalgo (Part), Wilson (Part) Lavaca (Part), Colorado (Part), Wharton (Part), Fort Bend (Part)

Cities of Note: McAllen, Rosenberg, Victoria

Obama: 49%

McCain: 50%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 27 Black: 3 Hispanic: 69 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Tossup

A newly-created McAllen-based district, it’s swingy territory. I think it should elect a conservative Hispanic Democrat, but it has a R-leaning bent and should probably would, at first, elect a Republican Hispanic.

EVERYTHING ELSE

TX-16 GREEN

Incumbent: Silvestre Reyes (D-El Paso)

Counties: El Paso (Part)

Cities of Note: El Paso

Obama: 65%

McCain: 34%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 66-33

White: 18 Black: 3 Hispanic: 77 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

No difference really, but it gets smaller. Safe Democratic.

TX-1 DARK BLUE

Incumbent: Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler)

Counties: Smith, Upshur, Gregg, Harrison, Nacogdoches, Shelby, Panola, Angelina, San Augustin, Sabine, Marion (Part)

Cities of Note: Tyler, Longview, Lufkin, Marshall

Obama: 30%

McCain: 69%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 70 Black: 19 Hispanic: 9 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Not much has changed. It loses a little land due to population growth. East Texas should keep electing Republicans. Gohmert, as crazy as he is, is safe.

TX-4 RED

Incumbent:  VACANT

Counties: Fannin, Lamar, Red River, Bowie, Cass, Morris, Camp, Titus, Hopkins, Delta, Hunt, Marion (Part), Kaufman (Part), Collin (Part), Dallas (Part)

Cities of Note: Paris, Dallas, Mesquite

Obama: 35%

McCain: 64%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 73 Black: 14 Hispanic: 10 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

It’s pretty much Ralph Hall’s district, but I couldn’t justify keep Rockwall County in the district; Sessions needed to be made safer. Hall is getting up there in age, and he survived a good teabagging this year in the primary. Anyway, he could move here or another very conservative Republican could run here.

TX-6 DARK TURQUOISE

Incumbent: Joe Barton (R-Ennis)

Counties: Ellis, Navarro, Freestone, Limestone, Falls, Robertson, Brazos, Bell (Part), Milam (Part)

Cities of Note: Ennis, Bryan, Temple, Killeen

Obama: 36%

McCain: 63%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 40-60

White: 65 Black: 15 Hispanic: 16 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

I make no apologies (heh) to Barton for taking out Arlington, as he gets an exurban and pretty safe new district. However, Edwards might consider taking a shot at him, as Temple and Bryan are now in the district. Still, I would feel good about Barton’s chances.

TX-19  LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent: Randy Neugebauer (R-Lubbock), Chet Edwards (D-Waco)

Counties: Lubbock, Crosby, Motley, Dickens, King, Stonewall, Haskell, Throckmorton, Young, Erath, Comanche, Bosque, McLennan, Hamilton (Part), Palo Pinto (Part), Hamilton (Part), Bell (Part)

Cities of Note: Lubbock, Waco

Obama: 33%

McCain: 66%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 27-72

White: 66 Black: 10 Hispanic: 20 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Leans Republican

This district will be a Lubbock vs. Waco district, with a spaghetti strange of rural West Texas in between. Edwards would have to get acquainted with a new district in inhospitable West Texas. Edge to “It’s a Baby Killer.”

TX-13 BEIGE

Incumbent: Mac Thornberry (R-Clarendon)

Counties: A lot

Cities of Note: Wichita Falls, Amarillo, Denison

Obama:

McCain:

Old District (Obama-McCain): 23-76

White: Black: Hispanic: Asian: Native American: Other:

Projected:

TX-11 LIGHT ARMY GREEN

Incumbent: Mike Conaway (R-Midland)

Counties: A lot

Cities of Note: Midland, Abilene, Amarillo

Obama: 22

McCain: 77

Old District (Obama-McCain): 24-75

White: Black: Hispanic: Asian: Native American: Other:

Projected: Safe Republican

I think this becomes the safest GOP seat in the country…

TX-23 LIGHT BLUE

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Counties: Medina, Uvalde, Dimmit, Zavala, Maverick, Kinney, Val Verde, Terrell, Brewster, Presidio, Jeff Davis, Culberson, Hudspeth, Reeves, Loving, Winkler, Ector, Howard, Glasscock, Ward, Crane, Upton, Reagan, Tom Green, Irion, Crockett, El Paso (Part), Webb (Part), Andrews (Part)

Cities of Note: El Paso, Laredo, San Angelo, Odessa

Obama: 42%

McCain: 57%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 36 Black: 3 Hispanic: 60 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Likely Republican

A VRA-protected seat, it’s more Hispanic than the current 23rd. It’s way more Republican now, a net of 18 points more. Ciro Rodriguez doesn’t live here anymore, and the district is based in three different population centers: San Angelo, Odessa, and Northern Laredo.  A Blue Dog Hispanic could win here eventually, as Hispanics in the area might, you know, vote eventually. This district is likely going to go to an Hispanic Republican, but down the road, the huge 23rd might flip.

TX-31 LIGHT MUSTARD YELLOW

Incumbent: John Carter (R-Round Rock)

Counties: Williamson, Burnett, Blanco, Gillespie, Llano, Mason, San Saba, McCulloch, Mills, Lampasas, Coryell, Hamilton (Part), Hamilton (Part), Milam (Part)

Cities of Note: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Georgetown

Obama: 36%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-57

White: 75 Black: 6 Hispanic: 15 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Again, this redistricting took countless hours. I kinda dared myself to try it out. I think it turned out pretty well…

Some thoughts: the DeLaymander was absolutely brilliant–in a nefarious sort of way. Just looking at the districts though, it’s almost inevitable that some districts start flipping our way. I think I used West Texas more effectively than it is now. I’ll add more later.

In a previous diary, I said that I was not going to post this plan for California because I thought it’s a “dummymander” in terms of Democratic prospects … I still think that (at least when compared to the previous map I drew for the state) … However, when I looked at the plan again, it appears to guarantee no less a number of Democrats than the current (2002) plan.  So, while the plan here may be a “dummymander”, it is not a bigger “dummymander” than the existing plan.  In other words, if this plan were adopted, Democrats would still be assured of having at least as many seats in California as we have today — BUT with the added possibility (and in many cases, a probability) of an extra 14 Democratic seats.  So, I will post the map I drew after all.

This is my second attempt at California since the partisan data by precinct became available in Dave’s Application.  My first attempt is here ….

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

I decided to do the new map to see just how many Democratic districts you can create using a lower Democratic “threshold” — in this plan, I wanted each Democratic district to be at least 55% Obama (maximum 44% McCain), as opposed to the 62% Obama (maximum 37% McCain) I used in my first map.  Under the “55% plan” you can create 48 Democratic districts for California (as opposed to 43 Democratic districts under the “62% plan”.)

I still strongly believe that having the 62% Obama minimum is a better plan for California, as the “55% plan” might lead to the partial “dummymander” (a good number of the 55-57% Obama districts here would have voted for Bush in 2004, whereas every single one of the 43 Democratic districts created under the “62% plan” would have voted for John Kerry).  Nevertheless, the “55% plan” results in generally more compact districts, and of course, 5 more possible Democrats than the “62% plan”.  Also, even under the “55% plan” a total of 34 districts are at least 58% Obama, which is better than the current (2002) plan that has only 33 districts that are at least 58% Obama.  So, in that sense, in a worst-case scenario, we would still have 34 districts pretty much as solid Democratic ones, even if the other 14 districts that are 55%-57% Obama somehow went GOP (actually, there’s one 54% Obama – 44% McCain district that I left as such because that’s the max. Democratic percentage you could do in that area without messing with county lines / compactness; only two districts are 55% Obama, while the remainder are all at least 56% Obama).

The 5 GOP districts that remain under this plan all went 58% – 62% McCain: they are CA-2 (Wally Herger); CA-21 (Devin Nunes); CA-41 (Jerry Lewis); CA-42 (Gary Miller); and CA-52 (Duncan Hunter).

The plan produces more compact districts, in terms of keeping counties and communities intact.  It has only 112 “county-fragments” (please see my first attempt above for the lengthy explanation if you’re not sure what those are), as opposed to the current (2002) plan that has a total of 120 “county-fragments”.  (The 112 includes one tiny sliver of Santa Clara Co. that has only 130 persons but is needed to connect the Alameda and Stanislaus parts of CA-11.)  The 1992 plan that was a non-partisan commission-drawn plan based largely on geographic compactness also had only 112 fragments, and this was when California only had 52 districts, so the plan here with 53 districts is technically more geographically compact — in terms of keeping counties and communities intact — than the non-partisan commission-based plan of the 1990’s (of course, my goal is still to produce as many Democratic seats as possible, which was not the goal of the 1992 plan !).  

The “55% plan” also creates a total of 15 Hispanic majority districts and 4 Hispanic plurality districts (there are currently only eight Hispanic representatives from California), three Asian-plurality districts, one African-American-plurality district (currently there are none in California), and 13 additional seats that are minority-majority (with no particular racial / ethnic minority dominant) … so a grand total of 36 minority-majority districts for the state (68% of the 53 districts).  The population deviation per district is +/- 2,000 persons.  Demographic info. is shown only as far as the majority or plurality racial/ethnic group.

Under this new plan the districts of most Democratic incumbents remain very safe Democratic seats.  McNerney’s district becomes safer (goes from 54% Obama to 60% Obama).  The only exceptions are Blue Dogs Cardoza and Costa, whose districts go from 59% and 60% Obama, respectively to 54% and 55% Obama; but the Blue Dogs should be able to handle this.  Matsui, Baca and Loretta Sanchez also get districts that are only 56% Obama/42% McCain – but I think they should be able to handle those also with good campaigns.  Last, but not least, Howard Berman also gets a 56% Obama/42% McCain district that now includes a good part of the current CA-22 (Kevin McCarthy); a match-up between the two would likely produce a race with a massive infusion of money.  On the bright side for Berman, the district I create for him is not Hispanic-majority, and perhaps he would see a Hispanic Democratic primary challenge against him as a bigger threat that a potential match-up with a high-profile Republican ?  The trade-off to all this is ofcourse that many new Democratic districts are created out of current GOP districts – several of the new districts are ones where a Democrat is virtually assured of winning: for example, Gallegly (CA-24) and Dreier (CA-26) both become 61% Obama districts, while Calvert (CA-44) becomes 62% Obama.

Anyhow, here’s my “55% Obama plan”:

District 1:

Incumbent: Mike Thompson (D)

Current District:  Obama 66; McCain 32

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 35

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 68% white

Includes all of Napa, Lake, Glenn and Butte Counties, and part of Sonoma Co. – Santa Rosa, Sonoma, Rohnert Park

District 2:  

Incumbent: Wally Herger (R)

Current District:  Obama 43; McCain 55

Proposed District:  Obama 40; McCain 58

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 76% white

Includes all of Modoc, Shasta, Tehama, Lassen, Plumas, Sierra and Yuba Counties, and western part of Placer Co.

District 3:  

Incumbent: Dan Lungren (R)

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 49

Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 54% white

Includes all of Colusa, Yolo and Sutter Counties, and part of Sacramento Co. including part of City of Sacramento

District 4:  

Incumbent: Tom McClintock (R)

Current District:  Obama 44; McCain 54

Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 59% white

Includes all of Nevada, El Dorado, Amador, Alpine and Mono Counties, eastern part of Placer Co. and part of Sacramento Co. including part of City of Sacramento

District 5:  

Incumbent: Doris Matsui (D)

Current District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 58% white

Includes part of Sacramento Co. – including Folsom, Citrus Heights and part of the city of Sacramento

District 6:

Incumbent: Lynn Woolsey (D)

Current District:  Obama 76; McCain 22

Proposed District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 75% white

Includes all of Del Norte, Siskiyou, Humboldt, Trinity and Mendocino Counties, and most of Sonoma and Marin Counties

District 7:  

Incumbent: George Miller (D)

Current District:  Obama 72; McCain 27

Proposed District:  Obama 68; McCain 31

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 41% white

Includes all of Solano Co. and northern part of Contra Costa Co.

District 8:  

Incumbent: Nancy Pelosi (D)

Current District:  Obama 85; McCain 12

Proposed District:  Obama 85; McCain 13

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 45% white

Includes most of San Francisco

District 9:  

Incumbent: Barbara Lee (D)

Current District:  Obama 88; McCain 10

Proposed District:  Obama 80; McCain 18

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 39% white

Includes part of Alameda Co. – Berkeley, Dublin, Livermore and most of Oakland, and part of Contra Costa Co. – Moraga, Orinda, San Ramon

District 10:

Incumbent: John Garamendi (D)

Current District:  Obama 65; McCain 33

Proposed District:  Obama 69; McCain 30

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 55% white

Includes central part of Contra Costa Co. and San Rafael in Marin Co.

District 11:  

Incumbent: Jerry McNerney (D)

Current District:  Obama 54; McCain 44

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 39

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 54% white

Includes part of Alameda Co. – Pleasanton and part of Oakland, almost all of Stanislaus Co. and sliver of Santa Clara Co.

District 12:  

Incumbent: Jackie Speier (D)

Current District:  Obama 74; McCain 24

Proposed District:  Obama 74; McCain 24

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 47% white

Includes part of San Francisco and most of San Mateo Co.

District 13:

Incumbent: Pete Stark (D)

Current District:  Obama 74; McCain 24

Proposed District:  Obama 75; McCain 23

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 33% asian

Includes part of Alameda Co. – Fremont, Newark, Union City, Hayward, San Leandro, Alameda, and part of Oakland

District 14:  

Incumbent: Anna Eshoo (D)

Current District:  Obama 73; McCain 25

Proposed District:  Obama 71; McCain 28

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 42% hispanic

Includes part of San Mateo Co. – Menlo Park, Atherton, East Palo Alto, Portola Valley and part of Redwood City, part of Santa Clara Co. – Palo Alto, Mountain View, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills and part of San Jose, and most of Merced Co.

District 15:  

Incumbent: Mike Honda (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 42% asian

Includes part of Santa Clara Co. – Milpitas, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Saratoga and part of San Jose

District 16:  

Incumbent: Zoe Lofgren (D)

Current District:  Obama 70; McCain 29

Proposed District:  Obama 68; McCain 31

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 39% white

Includes part of Santa Clara Co. – Campbell, Los Gatos, Morgan Hill, Gilroy and part of San Jose

District 17:

Incumbent: Sam Farr (D)

Current District:  Obama 72; McCain 26

Proposed District:  Obama 65; McCain 33

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 65% white

Includes all of Santa Cruz Co. and San Luis Obispo Co., and coastal areas of Monterey Co.

District 18:  

Incumbent: Dennis Cardoza (D)

Current District:  Obama 59; McCain 39

Proposed District:  Obama 54; McCain 44

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 47% Hispanic

Includes all of Calaveras, Tuolumne, Mariposa and Madera Counties, and most of cities of Fresno and Merced

District 19:  

Incumbent: George Radanovich (R) (retiring)*

Current District:  Obama 46; McCain 52

Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 61% hispanic

Includes all of San Benito Co., inland part of Monterey Co. (including Salinas area), and western part of Fresno Co.

* District is completely “relocated” to another part of the Central Valley

District 20:

Incumbent: Jim Costa (D)

Current District:  Obama 60; McCain 39

Proposed District:  Obama 55; McCain 43

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 55% hispanic

Includes all of Kings Co., western part of Kern Co. including part of Bakersfield, and part of Los Angeles Co. (Lancaster, Palmdale)

District 21:  

Incumbent: Devin Nunes (R)

Current District:  Obama 38; McCain 60

Proposed District:  Obama 36; McCain 62

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 50% white

Includes all of Tulare Co., eastern part of Fresno Co., and part of Kern Co.

District 22:  

Incumbent: Kevin McCarthy (R)*

Current District:  Obama 42; McCain 56

Proposed District:  Obama 55; McCain 44

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 39% white

Includes all of San Joaquin Co. and Riverbank in Stanislaus Co.

* District is completely “relocated” to another part of the Central Valley.

District 23:  

Incumbent: Lois Capps (D)

Current District:  Obama 66; McCain 32

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 38

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 50% white

Includes all of Santa Barbara Co. and northern part of Ventura Co.

District 24:  

Incumbent: Elton Gallegly (R)

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 38

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 56% white

Includes southern part of Ventura Co., and part of Los Angeles Co. – Malibu, Santa Monica, Venice part of Los Angeles

District 25:  

Incumbent: Howard McKeon (R)

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 57; McCain 41

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 50%+ hispanic

Includes all of Inyo Co., and part of San Bernardino Co. – Ontario, Fontana, Adelanto, Victorville, Hesperia and Barstow

District 26:  

Incumbent: David Dreier (R)

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 47

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 37

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 56% hispanic

Includes part of Los Angeles Co., including El Monte, La Puente, Irwindale, Baldwin Park, Covina, Azusa, Glendora, San Dimas, LaVerne and Claremont

District 27:  

Incumbents: Brad Sherman (D)

Current District:  Obama 66; McCain 32

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 38

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 43% white

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – including part of San Fernando Valley and northern part of the county

District 28:  

Incumbent: Howard Berman (D)

Current District:  Obama 76; McCain 22

Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 48% hispanic

Includes eastern part of Kern Co. (including part of Bakersfield), and part of Los Angeles Co. (including part of San Fernando Valley)

District 29:  

Incumbent: Adam Schiff (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 45% white

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – Burbank, Pasadena, and part of City of Los Angeles

District 30:  

Incumbent: Henry Waxman (D)

Current District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 36

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 69% white

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – Beverly Hills, West Hollywood, Calabassas, Hidden Hills, Agoura Hills, Westlake Village, part of City of Los Angeles, and most of Santa Clarita

District 31:  

Incumbent: Xavier Beccera (D)

Current District:  Obama 80; McCain 18

Proposed District:  Obama 81; McCain 17

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 71% hispanic

Includes part of City of Los Angeles, Huntington Park, Cudahy and Maywood

District 32:  

Incumbent: Judy Chu (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 60; McCain 38

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 44% asian

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Monterey Park, Alhambra, South Pasadena, San Marino, Temple City, San Gabriel, Rosemead, Arcadia, Walnut, Diamond Bar, La Habra Heights

District 33:  

Incumbent: Diane Watson (D) (retiring)

Current District:  Obama 87; McCain 12

Proposed District:  Obama 82; McCain 16

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 59% hispanic

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – Lawndale, Culver City, and parts of City of Los Angeles, Inglewood and Hawthorne

District 34:  

Incumbent: Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)

Current District:  Obama 75; McCain 23

Proposed District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 59% hispanic

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Downey, Bellflower, Bell Gardens, Commerce, Vernon, Glendale and part of City of Los Angeles

District 35:  

Incumbent: Maxine Waters (D)

Current District:  Obama 84; McCain 14

Proposed District:  Obama 81; McCain 17

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 38% black

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Palos Verdes peninsula, Santa Catalina Island/Avalon, and parts of Carson, Inglewood, Hawthorne and City of Los Angeles

District 36:  

Incumbent: Jane Harman (D)

Current District:  Obama 64; McCain 34

Proposed District:  Obama 65; McCain 33

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 53% white

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – Torrance, Gardena, Lomita, Redondo Beach, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, El Segundo, and part of City of Los Angeles

District 37:  

Incumbent: Laura Richardson (D)

Current District:  Obama 80; McCain 19

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 37

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 37% hispanic

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  most of Long Beach, and part of Orange Co. – Westminster, Cypress, La Palma

District 38:  

Incumbent: Grace Napolitano (D)

Current District:  Obama 71; McCain 27

Proposed District:  Obama 68; McCain 29

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 77% hispanic

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Norwalk, Whittier, La Mirada, Santa Fe Springs, Montebello, Pico Rivera, East LA, and part of City of Los Angeles

District 39:  

Incumbent: Linda Sánchez (D)

Current District:  Obama 65; McCain 32

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 54% hispanic

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Lakewood, Cerritos, Paramount, Lynwood and South Gate, and part of Orange Co. – Buena Park, La Habra and parts of Fullerton and Anaheim

District 40:  

Incumbent: Ed Royce (R)*

Current District:  Obama 47; McCain 51

Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 50%+ hispanic

Includes part of San Bernardino Co. – Chino, Chino Hills, Montclair, Upland, Rancho Cucamonga, and part of Los Angeles Co. – Pomona, La Puente

* District is completely “relocated” from Orange County to part of San Bernardino and Los Angeles Counties

District 41:  

Incumbent: Jerry Lewis (R)

Current District:  Obama 44; McCain 54

Proposed District:  Obama 39; McCain 59

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 62% white

Includes central and eastern parts of San Bernardino Co. (Apple Valley, Yucca Valley, Twentynine Palms, Needles) and part of Riverside Co. (Calimesa, Norco, Murrieta, Temecula, Canyon Lake)

District 42:  

Incumbent: Gary Miller (R)

Current District:  Obama 45; McCain 53

Proposed District:  Obama 40; McCain 58

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 69% white

Includes part of Orange Co. – San Juan Capistrano, Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita, Lake Forest, Vila Park, Yorba Linda, Brea, and parts of San Clemente, Fullerton, Anaheim and Orange

District 43:  

Incumbent: Joe Baca (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 51% hispanic

Includes part of San Bernardino Co. – City of San Bernardino, Colton, Rialto, Highland, Loma Linda, Redlands, Big Bear Lake and part of Yucaipa

District 44:  

Incumbent: Ken Calvert (R)

Current District:  Obama 50; McCain 49

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 51% hispanic

Includes part of Riverside Co. – City of Riverside, Moreno Valley and part of Corona

District 45:  

Incumbent: Mary Bono (R)

Current District:  Obama 52; McCain 47

Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 41

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 54% hispanic

Includes part of Riverside Co. – Perris, Lake Elsinore, Palm Springs, Desert Hot Springs, Cathedral City, Indio, Coachella, Blythe, Banning, Beaumont and San Jacinto

District 46:  

Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher (R)

Current District:  Obama 48; McCain 50

Proposed District:  Obama 57; McCain 41

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 42% white

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Compton and parts of Carson and City of Los Angeles, and part of Orange Co. – Seal Beach, Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley and Newport Beach

District 47:  

Incumbent: Loretta Sanchez (D)

Current District:  Obama 60; McCain 38

Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 59% hispanic

Includes part of Orange Co. – parts of Santa Ana, Orange, Tustin, Garden Grove, Stanton and Anaheim

District 48:  

Incumbent: John Campbell (R)

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 49

Proposed District:  Obama 56; McCain 42

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 47% white

Includes part of Orange Co. – Irvine, Costa Mesa, Laguna Beach, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Hills, Laguna Woods, Aliso Viejo, Dana Point, and parts of Santa Ana and San Clemente

District 49:

Incumbent: Darrell Issa (R)

Current District:  Obama 45; McCain 53

Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 40

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 61% white

Includes part of San Diego County – Camp Pendleton, Oceanside, Vista, Carlsbad, Encinitas, Solana Beach, Del Mar and part of San Diego (La Jolla, Mission Beach, Ocean Beach, UCSD area, Hillcrest)

District 50:  

Incumbent: Brian Bilbray (R)

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 47

Proposed District:  Obama 58; McCain 40

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 43% white

Includes part of San Diego County – San Marcos, Escondido, and part of City of San Diego

District 51:  

Incumbent: Bob Filner (D)

Current District:  Obama 63; McCain 35

Proposed District:  Obama 59; McCain 40

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 56% hispanic

Includes all of Imperial Co., and part of San Diego County – southern part of San Diego, Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, El Cajon

District 52:  

Incumbent: Duncan Hunter (R)

Current District:  Obama 45; McCain 53

Proposed District:  Obama 37; McCain 61

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 74% white

Includes part of San Diego County – Poway, Santee, and part of Riverside Co. – Hemet, Indian Wells, Palm Desert

District 53:  

Incumbent: Susan Davis (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 59; McCain 40

Demographics, estimated 2006-2008: 51% white

Includes part of San Diego County – part of City of San Diego, Coronado, Lemon Grove, La Mesa

• AZ-Sen: J.D. Hayworth may have sunk his own ship, not so much with his history of shilling for free-grant-money scams but with his flip response (“Buyer beware!”) when the accusations first came to light. Sensing some traction on the issue, Team McCain is out with a second ad on the topic, this time outright calling Hayworth a “huckster.”

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt is out with his first TV ad in his Senate campaign; it’s a feel-good intro spot that seems mostly oriented toward the primary audience. It’s the story of a humble high school teacher and university president, with no mention of how he just happened to be the House minority whip (or even a Republican). Blunt is very likely to prevail against teabagging state Sen. Chuck Purgason in the primary (who just got the coveted endorsement of Samuel Wurzelbacher), but would naturally prefer a convincing margin.

• NV-Sen: You know the best way to make sure that people don’t go back and look at all the ridiculous things that you said earlier? Don’t jump up and down saying “OMG! Don’t look at those ridiculous things I said earlier!” Well, that’s what Sharron Angle is doing, having scrubbed her website of all the ridiculous things she said back in the GOP primary as part of having “softened” (her words) her image, but having found Harry Reid’s campaign preserving her old website as part of his website (ah, the wonders of the cache…). They’ve now issued a cease-and-desist letter, ordering Reid to stop publishing the ridiculous things she said earlier. Meanwhile, Angle (last seen comparing herself to Abraham Lincoln) is facing a new problem: the possibility that the NRA (unenthused about the much-less-gun-friendly Dick Durbin or Chuck Schumer as majority leader) might actually endorse Harry Reid.

• OH-Sen: Jennifer Brunner reflects back on her Senate primary campaign, with no regrets about her running a shoestring-budget, ground-game-oriented campaign, and also with a few of the same complaints (of behind-the-scenes fundraising blackballing, for which she still offers no proof).

• SC-Sen: Linda Ketner seems like a savvy businesswoman, and the possibility of an independent Senate bid to save SC Dems from Alvin Greene probably didn’t strike her as a good investment. The former SC-01 candidate made it official over the weekend that she wouldn’t run, telling her petition-gathering supporters to stand down.

• WV-Sen: Following the West Virginia story is a bit like watching a game of ping-pong, because today the story has rapidly bounced back to the likelihood of there being a special election this year to replace Robert Byrd after all. SoS Natalie Tennant, who interpreted the law to say that there won’t be an election until 2012, is now saying that’s, practically speaking, too long and that the legislature should take that up in a special session this year. Of course, the decision to call a special session is up to Gov. Joe Manchin, the likely eventual occupant of that seat, and it’s a question of what timing he thinks is best for him, perception-wise.

Interestingly, there’s increasing pressure from both labor (AFL-CIO, UMW) and business (Chamber of Commerce) for Manchin to get it over with and appoint himself to the seat right away rather than using a seat-warmer, suggesting that the perception wouldn’t be that bad (compared with many other states, where governors appointing themselves to the Senate has frequently backfired catastrophically). Everybody in West Virginia seems to know how their bread is buttered, and that’s facilitated by getting Manchin in there as quick as possible so he can start accruing seniority. The state GOP is moving toward a lawsuit to compel a special election this year, but that may not be necessary if all the state’s establishment is already on board with the idea.

• GA-Gov: Insider Advantage is out with new polls of the Republican Georgia gubernatorial primary, and it offers quite a surprise: ex-SoS Karen Handel has shot into a tie with Insurance Comm. John Oxendine, who has had a significant lead for most of this cycle. Handel and Oxendine are both at 18, with ex-Rep. Nathan Deal at 12, and state Sen. Eric Johnson (who’s hitting the TV airwaves to attempt a late move) at 8. There may be two factors at work here: one, the increasing public perception that Oxendine is an ethically-challenged sleaze (the Handel camp has taken to calling him “the Rod Blagojevich of Georgia politics), and two, an endorsement for Handel from unusual quarters — Arizona’s Jan Brewer (a fellow former SoS), suddenly promoted from dead-woman-walking to right-wing heroine after her signing of that state’s immigrant-bashing law — that Ed Kilgore thinks have some of the same galvanizing effect as Sarah Palin’s embrace of Nikki Haley in South Carolina.

• NE-Gov: There’s a lot of backstory behind the strange Mark Lakers dropout that we didn’t know about until after he bailed out. It turns out that in May, there was a brouhaha after a number of people were listed as Lakers contributors on his campaign finance reports, some of whom weren’t even Lakers supporters at all. This led to calls in June from several prominent Democrats (including a former state party chair) for Lakers to get out of the race, and with his fundraising subsequently stymied (leaving him with $3,293 cash on hand on June 23), he seemed to have no choice but to bail. A replacement can be picked at the state Democratic convention, July 23 to 25.

• TX-Gov: The Supreme Court of Texas (can I just abbreviate that as SCOTex?) has given the Greens a lifeline, and by extension, the Republicans. (Not really a coincidence, seeing as the Texas Supreme Court is a partisan-elected, Republican-controlled body.) They blocked a lower court’s order that the Greens be kept off the ballot, letting them meet the certification deadline, although it left open the possibility that they will remove the Greens from the ballot later. The controversy, you’ll recall, is over whether the Greens’ petition drive was funded by out-of-state corporate money, an illegal in-kind contribution.

• FL-24: Craig Miller, the rich guy running against two underfunded elected officials in the GOP primary, has the lead according to his own internal poll (conducted by McLaughlin & Assocs.). Miller is at 17, with state Rep. Sandy Adams at 11, and Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel (who had been considered a good get when she got into the race) registering all of 3. The winner faces off against Democratic freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in the Orlando ‘burbs.

• KY-06: Attorney Andy Barr, who’s running against Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler in the 6th, is enduring some bad PR over his membership in a Lexington-area country club that, until last year, had never had a black member. His response? It’s “not an issue,” as he’s “a member of a lot of organizations.” (As an aside, that first member will be familiar to NBA history fans: Sam Bowie, the consensus pick as the worst draft disaster in human history.)

• NY-01: It’s usually not good news when your entire advisory infrastructure up and quits all at once, but that’s what happened in the campaign of Chris Cox, the Richard Nixon grandson and, more importantly, (state party chair) Ed Cox son who’s running a carpetbaggery campaign to represent the Hamptons. Much of the former McCain operation (John Weaver, Mark Salter, etc.) was working for Cox, but left en masse last week. Cox still gathering petitions to get on the GOP ballot (due in five days), so it’ll be interesting to see if that even happens now.

• OH-17: Trafican’t! (A few other wags have already used that joke today, so don’t credit me for it.) Ex-Rep. (and ex-con) Jim Traficant’s comeback bid in the 17th came to an ignominious end today, after it was revealed that he didn’t have enough signatures to petition onto the ballot as an independent, as over 1,000 of the 3,138 signatures he turned in were invalid. Beam him up, Scotty. (I’m not the first to make that joke either, sorry.)

• TN-08: It’s remarkable that the rural, dirt-poor, cheap-media-markets 8th is turning into one of the highest-dollar House races in the whole country. State Sen. Roy Herron, the likely Democratic nominee, had another big quarter, pulling in $350K over the last three months, which gives him $1.2 million CoH banked while the GOPers hammer each other.

• WI-07: The Democratic primary field was once again cleared for state Sen. Julie Lassa in the open seat race in the 7th to replace retiring Rep. David Obey. Joe Reasbeck (on the Some Dude end of the spectrum and not likely to give Lassa much trouble anyway) dropped out, citing family concerns. She’ll likely face Ashland Co. DA Sean Duffy, who does still face a contested primary.

• Redistricting: Redistricting in Florida in 2012 is dependent on what happens with the two Fair Districts initiatives (Amendments 5 and 6) on the ballot in November this year, which would limit the Republican-held legislature’s ability to gerrymander to their liking. (Unless Amendment 7, backed by a coalition of Republicans and minority Democrats, also passes, which would largely neuter 5 and 6.) The Orlando Sentinel looks at some of the difficulty the GOP may have with drawing favorable maps amidst burgeoning population growth in central Florida even if they can gerrymander at will, though; Hispanic populations there have been growing and Democrats have moved into a registration advantage in many areas.