Tag: Redistricting

• KY-Sen: The Beltway chattering class seems to have either moved on from “Aqua Buddha,” or taken it as a given that it just backfired on Jack Conway. Josh Green at the Atlantic does some actual, y’know, reporting on what’s happening on the ground, though, and finds that the ad (and its rebuttal), and their aftermath, are still completely driving the conversation in Kentucky. Local GOP pols still seem to think that Rand Paul will squeak by in the end, but it’s thrown him deeply off message and the refusal to debate again doesn’t look good on him. (UPDATE: Actually, Greg Sargent just reported that the Conway camp is taking down the Aqua Buddha ad. To clarify “taking down,” though, this was a planned move, as it reached the end of its original run, to be replaced by this sales tax ad.)

• PA-Sen: Barack Obama will be making a four-state swing through the east coast and midwest over the weekend prior to the election; one of the stopping spots will be Philadelphia, where he’ll be doing a canvassing event. He’ll also be doing rallies in Chicago, Cleveland, and Bridgeport, Connecticut (indicating they’re still leaving nothing to chance with Richard Blumenthal).

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman breaking self-funding records has become something of a dog-bites-man story around here, but one more for old times sake: she spent $23 million in the first half of October, bringing her all-cycle total to $163 million. Jerry Brown, by contrast, spent $14.6 million in that period, bringing his all-cycle spending to $25 million.

• CO-Gov: I doubt this is much of a game-changer, but it may help flip a few more Colorado Springs area votes in Tom Tancredo’s direction (if there were any Dan Maes supporters left there). Rep. Doug Lamborn became perhaps the most prominent elected Republican in Colorado to publicly come out in support of Tancredo, rather than Maes.

• MN-Gov: The RGA must be seeing something the polls aren’t telling them, because they’re still fighting till the end in Minnesota. (Of course, if one committee has money to throw at unlikely races and see what sticks, it’s the RGA.) They just gave $1 million to third party group Minnesota Future to run more anti-Mark Dayton (and probably anti-Tom Horner) ads. (You may remember Minnesota Future from the whole Target contribution controversy. Interestingly, Hubbard Broadcasting, owner of local TV station KSTP, also was just identified as having given $25K to Minnesota Future. Y’know, because they’re part of that liberal lamestream media.)

• FL-24: And here I’d thought we’d dodged something of a bullet when Karen Diebel got sent packing to spent more time guarding her swimming pool. Sandy Adams, who seems likely to be the next Representative for the Space Coast, has come out in favor of the “biblical teachings” rather than the theory of evolution. I look forward to hearing her proposals for a faith-based space program next.

• ID-01: The Tea Party Express finally endorsed Raul Labrador in the 1st. However, that comes only after they tried to endorse Democratic incumbent Walt Minnick as their token Dem fig-leaf and he rejected the endorsement (over racist statements by one of their, at the time, key members).

• Early voting: Ohio Democrats are pointing to an edge in early voting, where they’re leading 44 percent to 34 percent for Republicans in votes cast so far. The Republicans are claiming the edge after three days of early voting in Florida, with a 148,000 vote edge, although Dems pointed out that was about where the numbers were in the 2006 election.

• Redistricting: Here’s a good counterpoint to several articles that have shrugged off the possible large Republican advantage on the redistricting front coming out of this election, one that actually looks at the actual number of House seats that are likely to be influenced. Extrapolating likely control of state governorships and legislatures, the GOP will have “untrammeled” control over 125 House seats while Dems will control only 62, a worse outcome than 1990 or 2000. (43 are in commission-based states or at-large states, with 205 drawn by divided governments.)

• Chamber of Commerce: This article was been making the rounds, but it’s a must-read if you haven’t already done so and you’re interested in the “dark money” that’s swamping the transparent money, this cycle more than ever. The NYT digs into what corporations are using the national Chamber of Commerce as a pass-through for their contributions, including Prudential, Dow Chemical, and Dutch insurer Aegon.

• SSP TV:

• AZ-Sen: This looks like John McCain’s last ad, as it’s a soft-focus closing argument type of spot

• CO-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters hits Ken Buck on environmental issues

• DE-Sen: Here’s the first Chris Coons ad to take on Christine O’Donnell directly, saying she lives in the “Twilight Zone”

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid rolls out endorsements from various local business leaders in his newest ad

• WA-Sen: Waiting until the end to go after Dino Rossi for his anti-abortion stance seems to be tradition now, in order to swing any last-minute moderate women who haven’t decided, and the DSCC piles on

• HI-Gov: Barack Obama, fresh off his Colleen Hanabusa spot, also cuts an ad touting Neil Abercrombie

• RI-Gov: The DGA keeps pounding on Lincoln Chafee over the tax hikes he’d like (I’ve also heard the RGA is buying an ad here on behalf of John Robitaille, though I haven’t seen a link)

• WV-03: Ewwww… Spike Maynard plays the terrorist card against Arab-American Rep. Nick Rahall

• MoveOn: MoveOn seems to have saved their powder for one huge blast at the end, running ads in eight Senate races and 20 House races (here’s their WI-08 ad), helping only Dems who voted in favor of HCR

• Sierra Club: The Sierra Club is out with ads boosting Democratic incumbents in FL-22, MI-07, and AZ-08

• 60+ Assoc.: The AARP’s evil doppelganger is running two spots, a two-fer in Arizona hitting both Raul Grijalva and Gabby Giffords, and… here’s a new one… Solomon Ortiz in TX-27

• Rasmussen:

• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 44%, Tom Emmer (R) 41%, Tom Horner (I) 10%

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 51%, Carl Paladino (R) 37%

• NY-Sen: Charles Schumer (D-inc) 59%, Jay Townsend (R) 31%

• SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 44%, Kristi Noem (R) 49%

With the news that Washington state may receive a 10th Congressional District, I set out to develop a map that is favorable to Democrats and should lead to a 7-3 delegation split in bad years, and up to an 8-1 split in good years.

Washington has a bipartisan redistricting commission, so massive gerrymanders are off the table. When Washington received a 9th CD, the commission attempted to make the 9th competitive – I expect the same to happen with a 10th CD.

Anyway, this map creates a super-strong Republican seat east of the Cascades, and generally puts each major city in the Western portion of the state in its own district and connects that city with more rural portions of Western and Central Washington. (BTW, partisan data would be helpful here).

WA 1 (Inslee [open]-D) [Blue]

WA 1 still extends across Puget Sound to Kitsap County, but loses Bambridge Island and some Seattle precincts and extends to the eastern most portions of Snohomish County. The Kitsap portion of the District, as well as the western Snohomish portion should keep this District a safe Democratic one.

WA 2 (Larson D) [Green]

WA 2 retains much of its current form – Northwestern Washington. Like it does now, the district extends into Everett. If Larson holds on this year, the District should remain a Democratic hold.

WA 3 (open D) [purple]

WA 3 runs along the Columbia River and the Pacific Ocean. Inland it includes solidly Lewis County. In many years, this would be a Democratic seat, but control depends on who wins Clark County (and the City of Vancouver).

The coastal counties are more Democratic, and Skamania and Klicikat Counties did vote for Obama in 2008. In 2010 and 2012 this might be a tough hold, but as Vancouver becomes more solidly Democratic, so should the entire CD.

WA 4 (Hastings – R) [Red]

This district encompasses most of Eastern Washington – or at least Yakama and most of the low population counties east of the Cascades. Currently, both WA 4 and WA 5 are about 40-45% Democratic – this district would probably push that number to about 35%.

WA 5 (McMorris-Rogers – R) [Yellow]

While it may not be possible to create a safe Democratic district in Eastern Washington, connecting the Tri-Cities to Spokane may do the trick (to at least elect a Democrat – or make it a swing district). Whitman County voted for Obama and Spokane has two Democratic Senators in Olympia.

WA 6 (Dicks-D) [Teal]

WA 6 connects Olypmia to Kitsap County and extends to the Pacific Ocean. All of these counties are fairly reliable Democratic counties. Fairly in the sense that King, Snohomish, and sometimes Pierce Counties lead the way on Democratic issues in the state.

WA 7 (McDermott – D) [Grey]

Seattle.

WA 8 (Reichert – R) [Lavender]

WA 8 is strongly contested in 2010 by Suzan DelBene. Likely, the 2010 election will depend on how well she does in Pierce County.

To solidify the district, I chose to add several Democratic areas to the district – Renton and Kirkland. To add population to the district, I added the central Washington counties of Chelan and Kittitas. This is an area where I would like more partisan details, but both counties have voted for Democratic presidential candidates in the past.

WA 9 (Smith – D) [Bright Blue]

WA 9 was originally designed as a swing district twenty years ago – but has only been held by a Republican for only 2 years (1995-1997). For this map, it should stay a Democratic seat.

The district goes from the Seattle border to Puyallup and from Puget Sound to east King County.

WA 10 (open) [Magenta]

This new district is a Pierce County district. It includes Tacoma and Gig Harbor – and then races out to eastern Pierce county. This district should be competitive – or leaning Democratic in the worst years.

**Sorry for the quick write-up (I published the Diary before I was ready). Each district is + or – 744 from the ideal population size.

• WI-Sen, WI-Gov: Russ Feingold and Tom Barrett are both out with internal polls today, both from the same pollster (Fairbanks Maslin), both showing tied races. The Senate poll (Oct. 7, and 10-11) shows Russ Feingold and Ron Johnson tied at 48-48. The gubernatorial poll was an entirely separate sample, Oct. 5-7, showing Tom Barrett and Scott Walker are at 47-47.

• GA-Gov: InsiderAdvantage (10/10, likely voters, 9/27 in parens):

Roy Barnes (D): 41 (37)

Nathan Deal (R): 49 (45)

John Monds (L): 3 (5)

Undecided: 7 (13)

(MoE: ±4%)

If you’re wondering about downballot races, IA also has GOPer Casey Cagle leading Carol Porter in the LG race, 50-36, and GOPer Sam Olen leading Ken Hodges in the AG race, 50-40. Also, if you’re wondering how Nathan Deal seemed to regain his footing after a few rocky weeks where the race was seemingly tied, a lot of that seems to have to do with the RGA pouring money into this race ($3.2 million worth), as they’ve tacitly made this race one of their top priorities.

• AZ-05: Although this is an internal poll that has the GOPer leading the incumbent Dem, it’s a little on the lackluster side. David Schweikert responds to the DCCC internal giving Harry Mitchell an 7-point lead with his own poll showing him up by only 2, 45-43. (The poll was taken 10/5-6 by National Research.) An incumbent at 43% is no good, of course, but averaging the two polls out (for whatever that’s worth) gives Mitchell a small edge.

• NY-20, TN-08: What do these two races (one with a Blue Dog incumbent who seems in control of his race, the other an open seat with an aspiring Blue Dog not likely to win) have in common? In both races, the Dem said he wouldn’t support Nancy Pelosi for Speaker. Scott Murphy’s decision (granted, he’s more of a waffle than a flat-out “no”) is much more surprising than Roy Herron‘s; we’ll have to see if this becomes more of a trend in the closing weeks.

• OH-13: Tom Ganley has pulled his broadcast television advertising for the remaining weeks of the campaign, although he will be focusing on less-expensive cable and radio buys instead of going dark completely. He says that’s how he’s going to “cut through the clutter,” but somehow methinks the self-funder (savvy businessman that he is) realized that he shouldn’t throw his own money down the hole in a race that just got considerably more difficult once sex assault accusations started to fly. (H/t LookingOver.)

• PA-13: Here’s an unremarkable internal from a race where we shouldn’t even have to be looking at one: Allyson Schwartz, in the D+7 NE Philly district, leads Dee Adcock 57-32 in a 10/5-6 poll from Cooper & Secrest. Apparently this was released to combat rumors of a Republican internal showing it a single-digit race.

• SD-AL: This was the day’s big fundraising story until Sharron Angle showed up: the reason Kristi “Leadfoot” Noem was driving so fast was because she had to get to so many different donors’ houses. She raised $1.1 million for the quarter, compared to $550K for Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. That actually gives Noem the CoH edge, $770K to $500K.

• TN-03: Here’s one more place I wouldn’t think I’d be seeing an internal, considering that this GOP-held open seat in a dark-red district should be a slam-dunk this year, but I guess Chuck Fleischmann feels like he needs to look busy. The GOP nominee is leading Dem nominee John Wolfe by a 50-20 margin, in a poll (no dates) by Wilson Research.

• DCCC: More news on the triage front, on what’s apparently the last day to cancel ad reservations without taking a big financial hit. Having thrown Steve Driehaus overboard yesterday, the DCCC followed up today with Kathy Dahlkemper in PA-03 and Suzanne Kosmas in FL-24, who won’t get any more ad cover according to the NYT. Aaron Blake also tweets that open seats KS-03, IN-08, and TN-08 got the axe.

• AGs: You probably know Louis Jacobson of Governing magazine for his handicapping of state legislative chambers, but he also works the state AG beat (that’s often short for “Aspiring Governor,” so it’s a key bench-building step), and is out with handicapping for all the Attorney General races up this year. As you might expect, Dems should brace for some losses, especially in open seats.

• Gerrymandering: If there’s any place where people would be psyched to sit down and watch a movie about gerrymandering, it’s here at SSP. The movie’s creator is up with a diary here that lists all the theaters where it’s opening over the next month (including where he’ll be hosting Q&As). Some of them are one-night engagements, starting as early as tonight, so check out the listings ASAP!

• SSP TV:

• CO-Sen: The DSCC hits Ken Buck for his craptastic tenure working for the local US Attorney’s office

• KY-Sen: The DSCC goes back to the $2,000 Medicare deductible issue yet again to hit Rand Paul

• WA-Sen: I’m not sure why Washington Dems always wait until the last minute to remind voters that Dino Rossi is pro-life (that’s what happened in both gube races) — maybe they figure it’s their trump card — but they’re doing it again; meanwhile, the American Action Network hits Patty Murray by whipping up a second version of that weird Fred Davis ad with the tennis shoes walking on people

• WI-Sen: One of Russ Feingold’s myriad problems is that Ron Johnson actually comes up with some effective ads: this one’s a bio spot

• GA-Gov: Nathan Deal’s new ad hits Roy Barnes for having once said that “Mexican workers were good for Georgia”

• SC-Gov: The suddenly resurgent Vince Sheheen’s out with another spot, this one equating Nikki Haley to protégé Mark Sanford

• TX-Gov: Lone Star First (a DGA-backed group) hits Rick Perry on the HPV vaccine and links to Big Pharma

• OH-13: EMILY’s List steers clear of the sex assault allegations of Tom Ganley, going with a humorous spot on outsourcing and his 400 civil lawsuits at his car dealerships

• Rasmussen:

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 44%, Mark Kirk (R) 43%, LeAlan Jones (G) 4%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 34%, Rob Portman (R) 57%

• TN-Gov: Mike McWherter (D) 31%, Bill Haslam (R) 59%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 45%, Ron Johnson (R) 52%

• Rasmussen (as Fox/Pulse):

• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 45%, Tom Foley (R) 41%

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 49%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 54%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 38%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 47%, Sharron Angle (R) 49%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 42%, John Kasich (R) 47%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 35%, Rob Portman (R) 52%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 46%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

• Angus-Reid: Another reason to be suspicious of Angus-Reid in addition to their Dem-friendly internet samples: they seem to have neglected to poll the actually interesting Senate race in New York…

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 63%, Carl Paladino (R) 32%

• NY-Sen: Charles Schumer (D) 67%, Jay Townsend (R) 27%

Hi folks –

GERRYMANDERING is going to be in theaters nationwide this week.  The last time I wrote about it here, lots of folks wanted to know when it would hit certain areas, so here’s our opening salvo.

I’ll be doing Q&As in a bunch of places, so I hope folks come out and ask hard questions!  

10/12*: Camera 3 – San Jose, CA

10/12*+: Catamount Arts – St. Johnsbury, VT

10/12*+: Cinema Paradiso – Ft. Lauderdale, FL

10/12*: Lake Worth Playhouse – Lake Worth, FL

10/12*: Varsity Cinema – Davis, CA

10/12*+: 5 Points Theatre – Jacksonville, FL

10/12*: Mos’ Art – Lake Park, FL

10/12*+: Theatre N – Wilmington, DE

10/12*+: Palm Theater – Telluride CO

10/12*+: Riviera Theatre – Three Rivers, MI

10/12*: Beach Theater – St. Pete Beach, FL

10/13*: Pickford Film Center – Bellingham, WA

10/13*: Galaxy Cinema – Cary, NC

10/14-24+: Hawaii International Film Festival, Honolulu, HI

10/14-25+: Philadelphia Film Festival – Philadelphia, PA

10/15+: Village East – New York, NY

10/15+: Nuart – Los Angeles, CA

10/15: Lumiere – San Francisco, CA

10/15: Shattuck – Berkeley, CA

10/15: Ken – San Diego, CA

10/15-17+: Downbeach Film Festival – Atlantic City, NJ

10/19*: Crest Theater – Sacramento, CA

10/20-24: IndieMemphis Film Festival – Memphis, TN

10/22-24: Tallgrass Film Festival – Wichita, KS

10/22*: Byrd Theater – Richmond, VA

10/25*: Belcourt Theater – Nashville, TN

10/29+: West End Theatre – Washington, D.C.

11/1*: Salt Lake City Film Society – Salt Lake City, UT

11/1*: University of Maryland – College Park, MD

11/12*: Miami City Hall – Miami, FL

11/12: Valley Art – Phoenix, AZ

BOLD = Full Theatrical Engagements

*One-night only

+Q&As (Check local listings for details

We’ll be updating screenings here: http://www.gerrymanderingmovie…

Advance word has been terrific thus far:

“An exceptionally entertaining film.” – Bilge Ebiri, New York Magazine

“Every American voter should see this.” – Paul Constant, The Stranger

“****.  If you care about the future of America, see this movie.” – Matt Thomas, NY Examiner

“Cinematic – in the best way – all the way through.” – Howard Feinstein, Screen International

“A film seemingly made for Jon Stewart’s ‘Restoring Sanity’ movement.” – Stan Hall, The Oregonian

• CO-Sen: This probably doesn’t count as an October Surprise since it made a big media impression five years ago, but it’s suddenly popped back into view, and making things dicier for Ken Buck, already on the wrong end of a sizable gender gap in the polls. Buck refused to prosecute a rape case as Weld Co. DA five years ago (despite the police having recommended charges), and the alleged victim is now back in the news. She has a taped recording of their meeting (transcript available at the link) in which he seems to blame the victim and suggest that the case wouldn’t pass muster with a jury.

• FL-Sen: Mason-Dixon (10/4-6, likely voters, 9/20-22 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 21 (23)

Marco Rubio (R): 42 (40)

Charlie Crist (I): 27 (28)

(MoE: ±4%)

With Marco Rubio way ahead, it looks like a Kendrick Meek dropout (rumored on Friday) and a cobbling-together of some sort of Meek/Crist hybrid cyborg would be the only way for the non-Rubio forces to get an advantage in this race. However, Meek’s definitely not acting like a man who’s dropping out, if getting the president of the United States to cut a radio ad for you is any indication.

• WV-Sen: Remember that “hicky” ad that the NRSC ran, and then promptly got apologetic over, once the casting call instructions got leaked? (I know, that was last week, a lifetime ago in politics…) Now it sounds like it just kept running anyway, through last Friday for several days after the story broke, despite promises to take it down.

• NM-Gov: Yep, this is definitely the most over-polled, or at least over-internal-poll-leaked, race around. Today it’s Diane Denish’s turn to retaliate, and she’s out with another poll from one of her apparently two pollsters, Third Eye Strategies, with a 46-46 tie (a little stale, taken 9/21-23). I think we get the general idea, already: Denish sees a tie, Susana Martinez sees a high-single-digits lead for herself, public pollsters see something in between. (UPDATE: That’s odd… we reported this poll several weeks ago. Not sure why it’s back in the news today.)

• CA-47: This is the kind of unity that Loretta Sanchez (last seen alienating her district’s small but politically active Vietnamese community with an ill-advised remark) probably doesn’t like to see: apparently there was a major rift with the Vietnamese Republican community that just got sealed up, as long-time Van Tran rival Janet Nguyen (an Orange County councilor) gave a late-game endorsement to Tran.

• CT-02, CT-03: Merriman River Group hits the quinella in Connecticut, with polls of the two House races in the Nutmeg State that aren’t interesting. In the 2nd, despite getting some touting when she got in the race, GOPer Janet Peckinpaugh is making little impression against Joe Courtney, trailing 55-41. And in the 3rd, Rosa DeLauro is the state’s safest Dem, leading Jerry Labriola 58-37.

• FL-22: Endorsements from primary challengers, especially at this stage in the game, are interesting only when they go to the guy from the other party. But that’s what’s happening in the 22nd, where the guy who lost to Allen West, David Brady, gave his backing to Democratic incumbent Ron Klein today. (So too did several minor-league local elected GOPers, including Palm Beach mayor Jack McDonald.) Says Brady, apparently from the sane wing of the GOP (to the extent that the Palm Beach Post endorsed him in the primary): “I ran against Allen West. I debated him and I can tell you: Allen West is too extreme for this community.”

• MS-04: Dueling polls in the 4th, where everything still averages out to a Democratic lean but unfortunately this is looking like one more real race. GOP state Rep. Steven Palazzo offered a poll a few weeks ago saying incumbent Gene Taylor led by only 4, and now Taylor says, no, he’s leading by 8 (without giving us any other useful information, like the toplines, let alone the pollster or dates). Hmmm, that’s only a difference of four points, so why show your hand, especially in such haphazard fashion? Somehow I don’t think Taylor would be a very good poker player.

• NY-22, NY-25: Bill Clinton showing up in upstate New York to stump on behalf of Dan Maffei, that’s not a surprise, as this race seems to be competitive. But also Maurice Hinchey in the 22nd? We haven’t gotten any smoke signals out of that district before, but that’s an indication that something may bubbling under here. (It’s a D+6 district, and Hinchey barely won in ’94.)

• OH-01: One more unfortunate though unsurprising triage decision to report: Steve Driehaus seems to have run out of time at the DCCC, who are canceling their remaining ad buy in the Cincinnati market for the next two weeks. The deadline for reservations cancellations is coming up soon, so we’ll soon know who else gets the shortest straw drawn for them.

• PA-10: After seeing a incumbent Chris Carney up by single digits in a recent public poll from Lycoming, GOP challenger Tom Marino rummaged around in his poll drawer and pulled out one from the Tarrance Group giving him a 47-42 lead on Carney. (No word from the Fix on the dates, though.)

• TN-04: One last GOP internal to throw into the mix: a POS survey (from 9/27-28) on behalf of Scott DesJarlais shows him tied with Dem incumbent Lincoln Davis, 42-42. We haven’t seen any public polling of this race (and may not, as the NRCC doesn’t seem to be pushing this one hard, maybe on the off chance that it’s the kind of district that’ll flip in a wave regardless of what they do), but Davis claimed an 11-point lead in a late August internal.

• House: If you’re thinking that it seems like there are a lot more races in the “Tossup” and “Lean” categories this year, you’re not alone. Nate Silver quantifies various ways in which there are way more competitive races this year than in other recent cycles, including number of races where there are polls within single-digits, where there are polls period, and where there are major financial contributions.

• Redistricting: This is an interesting, if counterintuitive, piece from HuffPo on redistricting, which proposes that we’ll be in better shape in 2010 redistricting than 2000 redistricting because (based on projected gubernatorial and state legislative outcomes) we’ll have more control over the process in more important states: oddly he leaves out California, but also including Florida, Illinois, Michigan, and Virginia (all states where there was a GOP trifecta last time), and Minnesota and New York (where we might get the trifecta this time)… while the states where the GOP will improve its position aren’t as large (Alabama, Indiana, Tennessee… with Georgia the most significant one). The article also gets into the nitty-gritty of where the population growth within the fast-growing states has occurred (i.e. among minorities).

• Polltopia: You might have noticed that Political Wire briefly had some Senate polls up today from somebody I’ve never heard of before, called “TCJ Research.” Those polls mysteriously vanished after Nate Silver, vanquisher of bogus pollsters, showed up on the scene with a simple tweet:

A WordPress blog getting ~500 hits a day on posts like “October Giveaway: 32 Gigabyte Apple iPad!” suddenly commissions 5 polls? Not likely.

• SSP TV:

• IL-Sen: Two different ads from the DSCC attacking Mark Kirk, hitting him for his House voting record and also revisiting Kirk’s misrememberment of his military record

• NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall’s finally out with a TV spot, going after Richard Burr for helping to break the economy

• WV-Sen: While John Raese nods to the ‘hick’ ad semi-apologetically before changing the subject back to Washington Dems, Joe Manchin seems to be trying to out-hick the hick ad by touting his pro-gun and anti-environment credentials in one fell swoop by (I kid you not) shooting a copy of the cap-and-trade bill

• IL-Gov: The most famous Illinoisian, Barack Obama, cuts a radio spot on behalf of Pat Quinn

• RI-Gov: The DGA pounds Lincoln Chafee one more time from the right, accusing him of being a tax-hiking hippy

• FL-22: Ron Klein moves past the boring fixation on Allen West’s tax liens and onto the really juicy stuff about 2nd Amendment remedies

• MN-06: Taryl Clark hits Michele Bachmann on Social Security

• PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper touts her pro-life credentials in her new ad, explaining her siding with the Stupak bloc on health care reform

• VA-02: The DCCC’s IE unit points the “hypocrite” arrow at Scott Rigell, for making hundreds of thousands of dollars off “Cash for Clunkers”

• WI-08: Ditto the DCCC ad in the 8th, where they hit Reid Ribble for making hundreds of thousands of dollars for his roofing business off stimulus projects

• Rasmussen:

• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 49%, Tom Foley (R) 44%

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 47%, Rick Scott (R) 50%

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 19%, Marco Rubio (R) 50%, Charlie Crist (I) 25%

• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 41%, Nathan Deal (R) 50%

• GA-Sen: Michael Thurmond (D) 38%, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 53%

• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 40%, Tom Emmer (R) 38%, Tom Horner (I) 15%

• NE-Gov: Mike Meister (D) 24%, Dave Heineman (R-inc) 66%

• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 44%, Kelly Ayotte (R) 51%

• NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 43%, Susana Martinez (R) 52%

• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 40%, Brian Sandoval (R) 53%

• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 48%, Chris Dudley (R) 46%

• SD-Gov: Scott Heidepriem (D) 33%, Dennis Daugaard (R) 57%

• TX-Gov: Bill White (D) 42%, Rick Perry (R-inc) 53%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 46%, Dino Rossi (R) 49%

• Angus-Reid: Some of you might have gotten excited about the California numbers offered up today by Angus-Reid (a well-established Canadian pollster, but apparently making their first foray into the States). Well, don’t, because they’re using an RV model, and more importantly, it’s an Internet sample. (Now presumably there’s some scientific selection behind it, not just a “click here!” banner ad, but we’re highly skeptical nonetheless, especially since that seemed to produce notably pro-Dem results in California.)

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 53%, Meg Whitman (R) 41%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 55%, Carly Fiorina (R) 39%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 46%, John Kasich (R) 48%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 42%, Rob Portman (R) 53%

• CA-Gov: Another few weeks go by, and Meg Whitman keeps smashing the barriers on over-the-top self-funding: she’s spent $140 million out of pocket over the entire cycle now. Here’s the number that’s gotta suck for her, though: Jerry Brown, having spent all of $10 million so far this cycle, is sitting on $22 million in reserves for the remaining month, allowing him to compete on perhaps an even financial footing for the last month. Whitman’s cash reserves are $9 million, but even if she cuts herself the biggest check of all to re-up, there’s only a finite amount of TV time left for her to buy. Truly the story of the ant and the grasshopper.

• NM-Gov: The Diane Denish camp keeps up the onslaught of internal polls showing her behind but within arm’s length of Susana Martinez. This time, the poll is from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, and gives Martinez a 49-46 lead. That still feels kind of “meh” to me, but there’s an interesting kernel in the fine print: Martinez has fallen into net negative favorables for the first time (39/42, down from 42/31 in August), suggesting the ad war is having its effect.

• OH-Gov: I’m going to wait until I start seeing these kind of numbers in public polls before I start getting too optimistic about whether Ted Strickland’s comeback really has legs, but here’s another strong internal from his camp. The Feldman Group poll taken 10/3-5 gives Strickland a 46-42 lead over John Kasich, and finds Strickland with 47/40 favorables.

• CA-03: Ami Bera continues to be a fundraising force among Democratic challengers (not that he has much high-profile competition on that front); he raised $550K in 3Q, and $2.1 million raised over the cycle. He beat incumbent Dan Lungren yet again, who raised $480K for a $1.7 mil total.

• FL-02: We still haven’t seen any public polling of this race, but here’s a second GOP poll for challenger Steve Southerland giving him a double digit lead over Allen Boyd (the first one was an NRCC poll from the Tarrance Group way back in May, giving Southerland a 52-37 lead). This one’s from National Research (presumably on Southerland’s behalf?), taken 9/29-30, giving Southerland a 46-30 lead.

• VA-05: The US Chamber of Commerce gave its backing to Robert Hurt, not much of a surprise as he’s the kind of non-threatening establishment conservative that wing of the GOP tends to like. Tom Perriello picked that up and is using it as a cudgel that seems to combine various elements that have apparently polled well for Dems (outsourcing and Citizens United), saying that the endorsement means “foreign money” is pouring into the race now, citing companies in Bahrain, Russia, and China that give money to the US Chamber.

• DCCC: Here’s some more detail on the various ways in which the DCCC is, um, advancing in other directions (we told you about their pullout in AZ-08 last night, which probably has to do with Gabby Giffords having enough money to pull her own weight). They’ve also reduced buys for one week in a few other districts: a mix of ones where they seem genuinely hosed (CO-04, TX-17, FL-24, and the KS-03 and IN-08 open seats), one that seems a true tossup but where our guy has money (Harry Teague in NM-02), and one that’s looking like a pickup (LA-02). The DCCC will be using at least some of that money putting out a new brushfire that popped up in NY-23, where Doug Hoffman’s ceasing and desisting makes the race a tossup, and where they’re spending $500K.

• NRCC: Speaking of CO-04 and being hosed, here’s some additional evidence: the NRCC is taking $700K out of the 4th, and moving it next door to another race that’s looking decidedly tossup-ish: John Salazar’s CO-03.

• Redistricting: This may be the single best use of money anywhere by Dems this cycle: they’re finally putting some money into Florida’s redistricting amendments that purport to make the process less subject to gerrymandering. Over $1 million has flowed from Democratic groups to Fair Districts Florida, who are behind the measures. Fair Districts is ostensibly nonpartisan, but obviously the net effect of a less partisan map would be to dismantle one of the most effective Republican gerrymanders anywhere.

• Polltopia: With dramatically different results (especially in the generic ballot tests, but also in head-to-head polls) popping up that often seem to have very different definitions of “likely voter,” Mark Blumenthal looks at the various ways pollsters cobble together their LV models. There’s a marked difference between the way academic pollsters and partisan pollsters do it, revealing major disparities. If you haven’t seen it already, this should be required reading.

• Independent expenditures: The folks at Zata|3 have put together a very useful table, adding up and comparing DCCC and NRCC independent expenditures in all the districts where they’ve weighed in. (The NRCC has spent a lot more so far, despite their cash shortfall vs. the DCCC. The D-Trip seems to be saving up for a massive blast in the final weeks. Or maybe just saving up for 2012.) They also have charts for the DCCC and NRCC that break down each district’s expenditures by category (media buys, production, internet, etc.).

• SSP TV:

• CO-Sen: The DSCC hits Ken Buck for his enthusiasm for privatizing everything he can get his hands on

• CT-Sen: The Chamber of Commerce has a fairly boilerplate ad against Richard Blumenthal for being too anti-(big) business

• KY-Sen: There are six different ads embedded in this Inquirer article, several of which you’ve already seen (including the DSCC ad on Medicare deductibles), but including a new Rand Paul campaign ad on the “Conway = Obama” theme; separately, the NRSC has a new ad here on Conway waffling on extending Bush tax cuts

• MO-Sen: The DSCC has yet another ad about Roy Blunt and his lobbyist friends

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand’s out with a second bio ad that seems specifically aimed at the upstate market, pointing out her roots in that part of the state

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak’s new ad points to what we junkies have long known, that Pat Toomey’s free market fundamentalism has given him aggregator ratings even more conservative than Rick Santorum

• WI-Sen: A second cookie-cutter ad from the Chamber of Commerce, this one targeting Russ Feingold

• KS-Gov: Tom Holland’s out with his first ad of the cycle, a comparison spot that’s half negative against Sam Brownback, half positive intro of Holland

• TX-Gov: Bill White’s newest ad rebuts some of Rick Perry’s claims about his mayoral leadership and lists his various commendations

• AZ-05: The National Education Association gets into the ad war in a big way, hitting David Schweikert for being anti-public education (this buy is part of a $15 million initiative on the NEA’s part, also including TV in OH-13 and mailers in NC-08)

• CO-04: EMILY’s List is still sticking around in the 4th, bolstering Betsy Markey with an anti-Cory Gardener spot that’s a mother of a child with autism addressing Gardener not wanting to require insurers to cover that

• Rasmussen:

• AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard (D) 39%, Jan Brewer (R-inc) 55%

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 54%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%

• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 38%, Bill Brady (R) 46%, Rich Whitney (G) 4%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41%, Mark Kirk (R) 45%, LeAlan Jones (G) 4%

• MD-Gov: Martin O’Malley (D-inc) 49%, Bob Ehrlich (R) 41%

• RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 30%, John Robitaille (R) 22%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 33%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 44%, John Raese (R) 50%

Though official census data won’t be published until the end of the year, Election Data Services has released an updated reapportionment projection, based on population estimates published by GIS software maker Esri. To see how things have changed over the years, I’m including EDS’s projections for 2007, 2008, and 2009. Note that in prior years, EDS used several different models for its forecasts, which is why you see two different possibilities for some states in certain years.

The biggest loser here is New York, which, after two straight years of facing only a single-seat loss, is back two a two-seat drop – though only by the narrowest of margins: the Empire State would get the 436th seat in Congress, if it existed. The other clear loser is Missouri, which swaps places with Minnesota – MN hangs on to its final seat, while Missouri now fails to. And Arizona, which last year could have gained either one or two seats, now looks set to pick up just one. Meanwhile, California (0), Florida (2) and Texas (4) all wind up with their higher projections.

EDS also provides a list of states on the bubble, which you can see below:

In addition to the states on the lists above, EDS also thinks that Nebraska and Rhode Island are also at risk of losing a seat when the final numbers come out in December.

UPDATE: In comments, Nico takes a look back at EDS’s projections for the prior decade and finds that, while good, they still missed a few things. So we are very likely to see some surprises.

• CO-Sen: Ken Buck is running back to the middle, or at least the far right field instead of completely out of the ballpark, as he faces a close race in the general. He’s backing down on his previous support of Colorado’s “personhood” amendment (granting legal rights to embryos) that’s on Colorado’s ballot again, saying he’s against it despite loudly touting it during his primary bid.

• NV-Sen: Observers are wondering if this is Sharron Angle’s true chickens-for-checkups moment (in a campaign that’s already littered with quotes that contend for that honor). A video from a 2009 tea party rally by a Dem tracker shows Angle taking issue with a recently passed Nevada state law requires insurance carriers to cover “autism.” (And yes, she makes exaggerated air quotes while saying “autism.”) I suppose she thinks it’s nothing a good massage, sauna, and some aromatherapy can’t fix.

• CO-Gov: While John Hickenlooper seems to skate toward the Governor’s Mansion, Dan Maes and Tom Tancredo are descending even more comically into fighting to see who can garner a smaller share of the minority. Maes just called Tancredo “an illegal immigrant” (given Tanc’s fixations, probably the single worst thing he could be called) in the gubernatorial race, seeing as how he “cheated his way in the back door.”

• ID-01: Another day, another endorsement for Walt Minnick from another conservative organization looking to back one token Dem as a badge of bipartisanship. Today, he became the only Dem with the seal of approval from the Citizens Against Government Waste PAC.

• KY-06: Republican challenger Andy Barr, having been on the very wrong end of a couple Democratic polls in the last few weeks (giving Ben Chandler 20 and 14 point leads), comes out with his own internal to demonstrate that he’s not that dead yet. His own poll, from the Tarrance Group, gives Chandler only a 49-42 lead, in the wake of Chandler attack ads tying Barr to his previous boss, disgraced ex-Gov. Ernie Fletcher.

• PA-08: Franklin & Marshall (9/14-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Patrick Murphy (D-inc): 35

Mike Fitzpatrick (R): 49

(MoE: ±4.5%)

It’s unexpected to see Patrick Murphy, in the friendlier confines of the 8th, in worse shape than Kathy Dahlkemper in the 3rd (trailing narrowly in a different F&M poll with the same timeframe). He’s down 46-36 among RVs.

• PA-11: The Realtors® ride to Paul Kanjorski’s rescue yet again! I’m not sure why they have such love for Kanjo in particular among Dems, but today they’re slapping down $243K on his behalf. Recall that they spent over $1.3 million saving his hide in 2008.

• TX-17: Wow, that’s a big lead. Republican pollster OnMessage, on behalf of Bill Flores, gives their client a 55-36 lead over Dem incumbent Chet Edwards, over 9/19-20. I wonder if this’ll motivate Edwards, who notoriously holds his cards close to his vest, to roll out a response (if he has one). The article also notes that AFF is going on the air in the district with a new ad tying Edwards to (gee, guess who) Nancy Pelosi.

• DSCC: Reid Wilson has three new big buys from the DSCC in key states: $335K in Colorado, $235K in Illinois, and $470K in Pennsylvania.

• Redistricting: Here’s an interesting piece from Josh Goodman, for those of you among us who like looking at long lists of population figures. (I know I do.) It suggests that the redistricting axe is going to have to fall hardest on rural areas, which is a positive note for Dems; Census data (based on the 2009 ACS… you’re going to have to wait a few more months for 2010 data!) shows that the almost all of nation’s largest cities have grown (some remarkably so) or at least held steady.

• SSP TV:

• CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina calls Barbara Boxer “arrogant,” citing her notorious examination of Brig. Gen. Michael Walsh

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo has a target-rich environment for negative ads with Carl Paladino; one hit from his new ad includes Paladino’s job creation record (or lack thereof)

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland belatedly tries out “You want angry? I’ll give you angry!”

• OR-Gov: The SEIU hits Chris Dudley on his proposed income tax cuts for the wealthy

• PA-06: Manan Trivedi does the jujitsu move on Jim Gerlach’s hits on his residency, pointing he was busy, y’know, serving the military overseas during the years in question

• AJS: Americans for Job Securities targets four Dem-held seats with cookie-cutter neg ads: IN-08, OH-18, PA-04, and PA-07.

• Rasmussen:

• AL-Gov: Ron Sparks (D) 35%, Robert Bentley (R) 55%

• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 39%, Nathan Deal (R) 45%, John Monds (L) 5%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 44%, Roy Blunt (R) 52%

• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy (D-inc) 45%, Rick Berg (R) 48%

This is a scenario if Republicans were to win the state House, this is a probable map since they already control the State Senate. (I’m pretty sure the legislature does this, or is it a commission?)

UPDATE: New proposed Columbus map in the comments (sorry mods if its too big!!), creating a safe Columbus (60%+ Obama, 200,000 African Americans) district and a likely Republican suburb district.

Cincinatti area:

OH-01:

Hamilton, Cincinatti suburbs

Steve Driehaus (D)*

Adds more Republican Butler County (avoiding West Chester, where Boehner lives) and loses all of the heavily black parts of Cincinatti (much like how Columbus’ district are already). Driehaus is D.O.A here, but he could run in the 3rd district, where the black parts of Cincinatti are in Jean Schmidt’s district. Eitherway, this district is a Republican one.

OH-02:

Middletown, Troy, West Chester

John Boehner (R)

Warps around Dayton, but still extremely Republican. Minority (or Majority) Leader Boehner is safe.

OH-03:

Most of Cincinatti, Portsmouth

Jean Schmidt (R)

Schmidt is screwed. That’s putting it nicely. If she only ecks out single-digit wins in an extremely conservative district, she won’t win here with all the new African-Americans in the district. I’m guessing Steve Dreihaus would run here, and the Republican gerrymander actually helps him surprisingly.

OH-04:

Dayton, Kettering, Springfield

Michael Turner (R)

Turner keeps his Dayton-area base and expands to Springfield via  Fairborn in Greene County. Also takes Mary Jo Kilroy’s  Madison and Union counties. Safe.

OH-05:

Lancaster, Beavercreek, Zanesville

Steve Austria (R)

Austria’s district expands to take in two of Zack Space’s most visible cities, Zanesville and Chillicothe.

OH-06:

Western Columbus and suburbs Most of Columbus

Mary Jo Kilroy (D)

Kilroy is probably slightly more safer, as ultra-conservative Union and Madison counties are out of her district and is entirely within Franklin County. Her race is still a toss-up to me though. Yeah nevermind, by making Kilroy safe, we also keep Pat Tiberi safe as well, which helps the GOP actually. Obama probably took in 64% in this district, so Kilroy can live another day. Now with exactly 200,161 African Americans!

OH-07:

Eastern Columbus, Delaware, Mount Vernon North and Eastern Columbus suburbs

Pat Tiberi (R)

What do you get when you combine extremely Republican counties outside of Columbus and the African-American heavy parts of Columbus? A swing district, like this one. Slightly a bit more African-American, Tiberi is still safe. Centered around Columbus makes Tiberi a whole lot safer, even if it helps another Democrat.

OH-08:

Lima, Findlay, Defiance

Jim Jordan (R)

Still the most conservative district in Ohio. Nothing to see here.

OH-09:

Bowling Green, Mansfield, Fremont

Bob Latta (R)

Mostly unchanged but expands into the Mansfield-area. Safe.

OH-10:

Toledo, Lorain, part of Elyria

Marcy Kaptur (D)

Expands to take in Lorain and parts of Elyria, safe for Kaptur.

OH-11:

Massilion, Kent, part of Elyria

Betty Sutton (D)

This district takes in Medina County and loses most of Akron. If this district was to be implemented, Sutton would probably lose this year.  Republican pickup.

OH-12:

Canton, Athens, New Philadelphia

Zack Space (D) vs John Boccieri (D) vs Charlie Wilson? (D)

WesternEastern Ohio’s population is dropping…fast. This district goes from Canton and swirvs its way down to Athens. Zack Space and John Boccieri both live here, but Charlie Wilson lives just right outside the boundaries but this area is still his. Who would win here? I’m guessing Wilson, but if he doesn’t run here i’d go with Space. Sorry John.

OH-13:

Youngstown, Steubenville, Warren

Tim Ryan (D) vs Charlie Wilson? (D)

This is where Charlie Wilson lives but most of this area is represented by Tim Ryan. Ryan is moderate enough for this district, so Wilson is in a predictament here.

OH-14:

Western Cleveland, part of Elyria

Dennis Kucinich (D)

Mostly the same but goes into Lorain County to pickup votes.

OH-15:

Eastern Cleveland, most of Akron

Marcia Fudge (D)

Here’s the district which bugged me the most. I’m not sure if it HAS to be majority-black, but i kept it that way anyways. stretches into Akron to take in African-American votes.

OH-16:

Mentor, Ashtabula, part of Akron

Steven LaTourette (R)

Slightly more Democratic due to the presence of Akron. LaTourette is still safe though.

More pictures:

Breakdown:

OH-01, OH-02, OH-04, OH-05, OH-07, OH-08, OH-09, OH-11,OH-16: Republican Seats

OH-03 (if Schmidt runs): Tossup seats

OH-10, OH-12, OH-13, OH-14, OH-15: Democratic Seats

6 Democratic Seats

1 Tossup seats

9 Republican Seats

If Schmidt doesn’t run:

10 Republican Seats

6 Democratic Seats

First redistricting diary, tell me what you think 🙂 (And no, i am not and will not do California. As much as i love my state, its too large and the precincts are annoying…Yes i’m talking to you Santa Clara and Kern Counties.)

Here is my first attempt at redistricting Pennsylvania. This one will be much better.

Chris Carney, Tim Holden, Jason Altmire, Kathy Dahlkemper, and Mark Critz are all Democratic Congressmen representing districts that Obama lost. I’m going to fix that. This plan creates 14 Congressional districts (out of 18) where the Democrats are favored to win. It preserves communities of interest. It looks much cleaner and less gerrymandered than the current map. And it has a VRA district that’s the most Democratic district in America.

Click for a larger map

1st District Bob Brady (D)

East Philadelphia (yellow)

New 70%O 29%M Old 88%O 12%M

63% White, 11% Black, 17% Hispanic, 7% Asian

It’s a big drop from 88% to 70% but he’s still safe.

2nd District Chaka Fattah (D)

West Philadelphia (dark blue)

New 96%O 4%M Old 90%O 10%M

13% White, 75% Black, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian

Compare the demographics of districts 1 and 2, and then notice that what separates them is mostly a single straight line. That’s how segregated Philadelphia is. This is the most Democratic district in the country. Since Pennsylvania has enough votes to spare, it should compete for that honor.

3rd District Brian Lentz (D)

Delaware County, southern Chester County (brown)

New 58%O 41%M Old 56%O 43%M

75% White, 16% Black, 4% Hispanic, 4% Asian

It gets all of Delaware County, including the black parts currently in PA-1. This makes it 2 points more Democratic.

4th District Allyson Schwartz (D)

Montgomery County (green)

New 62%O 37%M Old 59%O 41%M

80% White, 9% Black, 3% Hispanic, 6% Asian

Most of Montgomery County is now one solid compact district, and it’s safe Dem.

5th District Patrick Murphy (D)

Bucks County (orange)

New 54%O 45%M Old 54%O 45%M

88% White, 4% Black, 3% Hispanic, 4% Asian

It’s a tiny bit more Democratic than it was before. If you keep all of Bucks County in one district then there’s not much you can do.

6th District Jim Gerlach (R) or Manan Trivedi (D)

West Chester, Coatesville, Reading (peach)

New 55%O 44%M Old 58%O 41%M

81% White, 6% Black, 10% Hispanic, 3% Asian

If Jim Gerlach gets reelected this year then this plan won’t work. If he keeps winning 52% of the vote in his district then he’ll win a safe 55% of the vote in a district that’s 3% more Republican. The only way to dislodge him will be to put some lower Montgomery County in this district and then put a lot of Berks County in Allyson Schwartz’s district. It will be ugly and un-communities-of-interest-ish and no one wants that. However if Trivedi wins this year (and I think he will) then he should be able to hold a 55% Obama district that gets more Democratic every year and is centered around his home in Berks County.

7th District Charlie Dent (R)

Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton (pale blue)

New 57%O 42%M Old 56%O 43%M

79% White, 5% Black, 12% Hispanic, 2% Asian

At 57% Obama it will have to go Democratic eventually. This counts towards one of the 14 D’s.

8th District Tim Holden (D) vs Paul Kanjorski (D)

Wilkes-Barre, Pottsville, Stroudsburg (lime green)

New 53%O 45%M Old 57%O 42%M

88% White, 4% Black, 6% Hispanic, 1% Asian

Obama won a 50% plurality in this part of Schuylkill County and he got 56% of Luzerne. It’s not the best at communities of interest. It has a liberal city (Wilkes-Barre), rich liberal rural area (Monroe Co), poor rural barely-Democratic areas (Carbon, Schuylkill, rest of Luzerne Co) and conservative suburbs (Northampton and Lehigh Co). If Kanjorski beats Barletta this year then it’s worth taking our chances on a 53% Obama district, especially with Monroe County which is quickly getting more populous and more Democratic. If Barletta wins then a 14-4 plan goes out the window, and instead Barletta gets a more Republican version of this district, and Carney gets a safe Scranton and Wilkes-Barre district.

9th District Chris Carney (D)

Scranton, State College, Northern Tier (pink)

New 52%O 46%M Old 45%O 54%M

93% White, 2% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Carney gets a 52% Obama district. I’m sure he’ll appreciate that as he drives 300 miles to a townhall in Warren. It has 2 different centers of population, Scranton and State College, but so what, lots of congressional districts have 2 different centers of population (right?). Carney is the second biggest winner from this plan.

10th District Glenn Thompson (R)

Williamsport, Bloomsburg, Lebanon (cyan)

New 41%O 58%M Old 44%O 55%M

93% White, 3% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This is the first of 4 Republican districts. It’s the only one with any chance of going Democratic within the decade. Maybe it’s 10 years behind NY-20 (a comparable rural northern district) and will trend Democratic.

11th District Todd Platts (R)

Lancaster County, York County, Adams County (blue-purple)

New 37%O 62%M Old 43%O 56%M

94% White, 2% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This district is as Republican as the current PA-19 was 10 years ago. This is the smallest (densest) Republican district. It is trending Democratic, but not fast enough for a Democrat to win it within the next decade.

12th District open

Lancaster, York, Harrisburg (gray)

New 54%O 45%M

76% White, 11% Black, 9% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Obama won each of the 3 county fragments and narrowly lost the Cumberland part. Since we can make a Democratic district out of the 3 mid-state cities and their suburbs, we should.

13th District Bill Shuster (R)

Chambersburg, Bedford, Altoona (turquoise)

New 34%O 64%M Old 35%O 63%M

95% White, 2% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian

Definitely the most Republican district in the Northeast, maybe one of the 20 most Republican districts in the country. And it no longer reaches west to suck up Democratic votes in Fayette and Indiana counties.

14th District Mark Critz (D)

Washington, Uniontown, Johnstown (red)

New 50%O 49%M Old 49%O 50%M

93% White, 4% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian

It’s a thicker, less gerrymandered-looking version of the Critz district. It has the least % Obama of all 14 Democratic districts. Obama only won a 50% plurality, but as you know, this area is more Democratic at the local level than the presidential level. Obama won the Beaver, Washington, Indiana, and Clearfield parts of this district. Out of the 14, I think this is the district that is most likely to go Republican within the next decade.

15th District Mike Doyle (D)

Pittsburgh, Braddock, McKeesport (purple)

New 56%O 44%M Old 70%O 29%M

86% White, 8% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

In order to protect 4 incumbents in Western PA Mike Doyle had to take one for the team. Pittsburgh gets spread between 2 districts. Still, at 56% Obama, and stronger at the local level, it shouldn’t be a problem for Doyle or any Democrat who succeeds him.

16th District Jason Altmire (D)

Pittsburgh, Ross, Lower Burrell (green)

New 55%O 44%M Old 44%O 55%M

80% White, 15% Black, 1% Hispanic, 2% Asian

By losing Butler County and gaining half of Pittsburgh, Altmire is the biggest winner from this redistricting plan. Hopefully Altmire is adaptable, and this district will allow him (or force him) to vote more liberally.

17th District Tim Murphy (R)

Greensburg, Butler, Punxsutawney (yellow)

New 38%O 61%M Old 44%O 55%M

97% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian

It doesn’t look like Tim Murphy’s old district, but 23% of it overlaps with his old district. After putting anything remotely Democratic in a Democratic district, this is what you have leftover.

18th District Kathy Dahlkemper (D)

Erie, Hermitage, New Castle (blue)

New 52%O 47%M Old 49%O 49%M

91% White, 5% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This is about the most Democratic possible compact northwestern district. As Mercer, Lawrence and Beaver trend Republican, Erie is trending more Democratic, so that should help the district stay Democratic.