Tag: Redistricting

Sourced partially from StateVote from the National Conference of State Legislatures (PDF). Note that “seats” refers to “projected seats after 2010”.

A few notes:

• Arizona: Uses a bipartisan commission.
  

• California: Will be done by commission following passage of Prop 20.
  

• Florida: Amendment 6 mandates compactness and community of interest standards.
  

• Georgia: Underwent mid-decade redistricting under GOP control.
  

• Iowa: Uses a nonpartisan commission, but the legislature has veto power.
  

• New Jersey: Uses a bipartisan commission with a 11th wild card member.
  

• New York: Control of the State Senate remains uncertain, with three seats still in the balance.
  

• North Carolina: Governor Bev Perdue does not have veto power, meaning the GOP controls the entire process.
  

• Oregon: Control of the State Senate remains uncertain, with two seats still in the balance.
  

• Texas: Underwent mid-decade redistricting under GOP control.
  

• Washington: Uses a bipartisan commission. Control of the State Senate remains uncertain, with three seats still in the balance.
  

Notably, we’re not that screwed. Control of the FLOHPA (+MI) set of swing states remains under the GOP trifecta, just as it was in 2000.

Redistricting will undoubtedly be a top – if not the top – topic around here over the next year or so. To get your engines started, here are a few early items from around the nation:

Indiana: Gov. Mitch Daniels released his list of legislative priorities for 2011, and it looks like he’s trying to burnish his bi-(or non-)partisan cred with this plank:

“Indiana must have a fair redistricting based on geographic and community of interest lines – not politics. And I’ll only sign one that meets that test.”

Daniels’ commitment will be seriously tested on this part of his platform, seeing as the GOP now controls both houses of the state lege (in addition to the governor’s mansion, of course). Incoming House speaker Brian Bosma also claims he’s a supporter of such reforms. We shall see.

Alabama: Meanwhile, down in Alabama, Republicans also control the trifecta – and seeing as it’s their first time, they’re licking their chops. As the Birmingham News puts it:

The likely result is a new congressional map that protects all six Republican congressmen and keeps intact the majority black district home to the only Democrat, according to U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Saks.

Here’s one stab at such a map. Can you do better?

Illinois: The upper hand is on the other foot in Illinois, one of the few redistricting bright spots for Dems. With Team Blue in charge of the trifecta here – and the Prairie State on track to lose a seat in reapportionment – the only question is which Republican freshman will get tossed in the woodchipper. Sadly, we have quite a few to pick from: Randy Hultgren, Adam Kinzinger, Bobby Schilling, Jim Walsh, and Bob Dold! But it’ll still be satisfying to see one of these guys get axed. (And if we’re really lucky, two of `em will get tossed into a single district together.)

New Jersey: For whatever reason, New Jersey chooses to be a freak state, holding its state-level elections in odd-numbered years. This is good news for horserace bloggers, but probably a pain in the ass for the folks in charge of drawing state lege district lines. They have to produce a map by Feb. 1 – which is barely a month after the Census Bureau will releases its state-level population data, and a month or so before they release redistricting-level data. In any event, I suggest you read the linked story, which details how Dems succeeded in getting a very favorable map ten years ago – circumstances which are unlikely to obtain this time around.

Dave’s Redistricting App: I realize there are quite a few new SSP members these days, so it’s possible not everyone is familiar with the awesome (and free!) Dave’s Redistricting App. It does exactly what it sounds like it ought to do – you can draw and re-draw maps to your heart’s content. The eponymous Dave often stops by in comments and with diaries of his own, in case you ever have questions. He’s also always looking for assistance in compiling partisan data for the app, so if you want to help improve the program, please click the link to find out how!

With the election over, I thought I’d take a stab at what a bipartisan incumbent protection map might look like in Virginia. The plan is to protect all 11 incumbents; the only district that would likely be competitive in an open seat situation under this map is VA-10.

Click for huge.

VA-01 (Rob Wittman – R) – Hasn’t changed a whole lot; takes in some more of Prince William, loses part of Stafford/Spotsylvania, and adds the two Eastern Shore counties (they were in VA-01 prior to the 2000 map).

VA-02 (Scott Rigell – R) – Snakes up the shore to take in some Republican territory (Poquoson, parts of York and Gloucester), picks up the VA-01 bit of Hampton, and loses the Eastern Shore. Should move the needle to the Republicans by a couple points.

VA-03 (Bobby Scott – D) – Takes Petersburg out of VA-04, mostly unchanged. 62% black.

VA-04 (Randy Forbes – R) – Also not changed a whole lot, aside from losing Petersburg, which should flip the district to McCain.

VA-05 (Robert Hurt – R) – Removes Charlottesville and most of Albemarle, adds the rest of Bedford, Lynchburg, and Amherst. Should be no trouble at all for the Republicans to hold now.

VA-06 (Bob Goodlatte – R) – Snakes up from Roanoke, where Goodlatte lives, through the Shenandoah Valley, and pulls in Charlottesville and Albemarle and some outer NoVa counties. Shouldn’t endanger Goodlatte.

VA-07 (Eric Cantor – R) – Actually a little less ridiculous now, it’s a solidly-Republican suburban Richmond/Fredericksburg area district. Still should be solidly Republican.

VA-08 (Jim Moran – D) – Remains solidly Dem; continues to hold the trifecta of Alexandria, Arlington, and Falls Church, but goes west instead of south. Maybe a couple points less Democratic, but still a safe D district.

VA-09 (Morgan Griffith – R) – Not much changed here; added Salem, Martinsville, and some more of Roanoke County. Safe R.

VA-10 (Frank Wolf – R) – Added almost all of Shenandoah County, and removes some parts of Fairfax. Retains the most Republican parts of Fairfax. Safe for Wolf, should lean Republican in an open seat, unless it’s a particularly good Dem year.

VA-11 (Gerry Connolly – D) – Replaces the Republican PW County parts with the solidly-Dem SE PW County. Should be a pretty safe Dem seat.

As we all know, Republicans very, very narrowly fell short of taking the governorship of Oregon. Oregonians instead opted to send former Gov. John Kitzhaber back to the governor’s mansion over Republican Chris Dudley, best known for playing basketball.

Republicans also came extremely close to capturing slim majorities in both the State House and the State Senate. The State House is now evenly split, while it appears Democrats will hang onto a majority of one or two in the Senate.

If Republicans had garnered just another point in the statewide popular vote, it seems likely they would have flipped both houses of the Oregon state legislature and installed Chris Dudley as governor, giving them a trifecta in the Beaver State. As a left-leaning independent and an Oregonian expat, let me just take a moment to editorialize by way of gagging.

With redistricting coming up, Republicans could have taken control and gerrymandered Oregon, provided they could agree on a map (otherwise, Secy. Kate Brown, Oregon’s Democratic secretary of state, would have been constitutionally empowered to draw one up – which, as it is, puts considerable pressure on Republicans to compromise with Democrats). Here’s one they might have liked.

I’ve done what any self-respecting, all-powerful Republican trifecta would do, and I’ve just handed Democrats the Willamette River Valley while giving Republicans two seats in the rest of the state.

There should be little controversy about the Portland metropolitan area. The new OR-01 I’ve drawn would have been, if Republicans had won and drew this map, one of the most Democratic districts in the entire country; Rep. Blumenauer’s Republican opponent, Delia Lopez, picked up three percent of the vote in the portion of Multnomah County in Blumenauer’s district, currently OR-03. Note: I spent so much time playing around with the district lines that some of the district numbers are mixed up.

OR-01 here includes some of the most liberal parts of Clackamas County, including Milwaukee. Rep. Blumenauer would thrive here, obviously.

As for OR-05, it includes most of Portland’s western suburbs, as well as some of the most swingy parts of Clackamas County. It’d probably be a Democratic district, but an Oregonian answer to Reps. Reichert or Tiberi might be able to flip it in a good year.

I originally had OR-05 reaching up into Columbia County to encompass St. Helens and Scappoose, but I decided against it. They were instead awarded to OR-04, which thus holds the entire Oregon Coast. OR-04 also reaches inland to western Washington, Yamhill, and Polk counties. It’s almost entirely rural, and despite Astoria and a few other lean Democratic cities in northwestern Oregon, it would be safely Republican.

The reason OR-04 would be safely Republican is simple: Eugene has been gerrymandered into a district with the lean Democratic cities of the Willamette River Valley, including the capital of Salem and its suburbs. Conservative Albany is left to OR-04. Because of the way OR-03 is drawn, it would be a pretty safe Democratic district, especially considering the surging Latino population in and around Salem.

OR-02, currently Rep. Walden’s district, remains safely Republican, soaking up the swingy population centers of Bend, Medford, Ashland, and Hood River with the entirety of hard-right eastern Oregon, as well as most of fairly conservative central and southern Oregon.

In plain speech, OR-02 and OR-04 would be safely Republican, while OR-01, OR-03, and OR-05 would be Democratic. Definitely a good thing Republicans didn’t manage to take over Salem this year.

BONUS: Just for kicks, here’s a picture of the way I originally gerrymandered OR-03:

I decided Bend would be fine in OR-02 and it would be best to keep the district more compact and inclusive of the Salem suburbs, not just the I-5 corridor down the Willamette River Valley. The way this district is drawn would force OR-03 to spill into Clackamas County. While it’s funny (and hideous), I decided it wasn’t practical.

Quick History

The Republicans controlled the redistricting process in 2000, shifting the map from a 9-7 Democratic advantage to a 9-6 Republican one. (Michigan lost a seat in reapportionment.) They did this by redistricting three seperate pairs of Democratic incumbents into the same districts, thereby creating two new open Republican seats elsewhere. Architect of this plan? None other than then-state-senator Thaddeus McCotter, who oh-so-thoughtfully created one of those new open districts around his home base.

The GOP plan had turned into a little bit of a dummymander, since by 2008 the Democrats had flipped two districts to get an 8-7 advantage. This week's election, however, has restored the Republican's 9-6 edge. The 1st and 9th districts are in opposite hands from the 2002 elections; all other districts are controlled by the same party that won them eight years ago. (Wikipedia’s version of the pre-Tuesday districts is above for reference.)

The Genesis of this Plan: Failed Attempts

One of my consolations on election night was the idea that even with control over redistricting again, the Republicans couldn't really make it any worse. At the time, it looked the the Democrats were going to be down to five districts: Dearborn-Ann Arbor, Flint-Saginaw, Southfield-Warren, and the two Detroit districts. That seemed like pretty much the rock bottom base of support for the Democrats in Michigan. But then Gary Peters pulled out a narrow victory, and I started to look to see whether the Republicans could get the Democrats down to five after all. Michigan is almost certainly losing another district, so let's see if it can be made a Democratic one.

Four of the six Democratic seats seemed pretty much untouchable. The VRA-protected Detroit-based 13th and 14th districts are, of course, ridiculously Democratic. Sander Levin's 12th district pulls together an only somewhat less-ridiculously-Democratic set of inner suburbs on Detroit's north side. And despite Dale Kildee's narrower-than-expected win on Tuesday, Flint is big enough to dominate pretty much any district you could conceivably put it in. That leaves Gary Peter's 9th district and John Dingell's 15th district as the remaining targets.

My first attempt actually took on John Dingell's district. Stretching from blue collar Dearborn to the university town of Ann Arbor, it was created as one of the three "pairing" districts, setting up then-Representive Lynn Rivers against Dean of the House Dingell. Dearborn was easy to move into John Conyer's 14th district. Ann Arbor has to end up in Democratic district, so I swung Gary Peter's 9th district around to pick it up. Thad McCotter's 11th then mostly gives up its claim on Oakland county to pick up the rest of the dismembered 15th.

The problem with this plan from a GOP perspective is what it does to McCotter. The distict is probably about 60% – 70% new to him, and it's not nearly as Republican as his old district. I haven't run the numbers, but just from eyeballing it, I would be surprised if this version of the 11th district didn't have a Democratic PVI.

My second attempt left Dingell's district more-or-less alone. (As pictured, all of Dingell's hometown of Dearborn ends up in Conyer's district, but this could possibly be played with.) Instead I merged McCotter's 11th district with Peter's 9th district. The resulting district has about half of its population come from each district. (Old Peters in blue; old McCotter in green.) It cuts out the most Democratic parts of each district (Wayne, Westland, and Garden City for the 11th; Pontiac, Auburn Hills, and Royal Oak for the 9th). Again, I haven't run the numbers for PVI; I suspect it's a Bush '04-Obama '08 district.

McCotter probably isn't the best candidate for an incumbent vs incumbent race, but this district — in isolation — would probably suit the state GOP fine.

The problem is what the rest of the state looks like.

Merging the 9th and 11th pulls Mike Roger's 8th district further east and north. This saddles the already swingy 7th district just won by Tim Walberg with heavily Democratic Lansing. The 7th, in turn, now donates Democratic-leaning Battle Creek to Fred Upton's already even-PVI 6th district.

The Solution

So if I couldn't dismantle Dingell's district without giving McCotter too much hostile territory, and if merging McCotter's district and Peter's district resulted in weaker districts for Walberg and Upton, then what?

I was stumped for about a day, when the answer occured to me: attack Sander Levin's 12th district instead.

By bringing the Detroit-based 13th district north across Eight Mile into Macomb county, I could merge the Oakland portion of the 12th district into the 9th. (The old 12th is roughly outlined in white.)

Brief District-by-District Rundown

I'm considering working through the data to get firm PVIs for the proposed districts. For now, you have eyeballing-it. I did refer to the 2004 and 2008 numbers while drafting; I just never actually ran the calculations.

1st District (Blue)

This district is newly captured by Republican Dan Benishek. In the 2000 redistricting, this district was pulled down the Lake Huron coast towards Bay City as part of the dismantling of then-Representative Jim Barcia's district (he got paired with Dale Kildee in the 5th). Without such concerns, I pulled it down the Lake Michigan shoreline instead. Adding the Traverse City area instead of the upper Saginaw Bay area should make this district just slightly more Republican. Traverse is also a better cultural fit for the district. (Note that everything not pictured in the north of the state is in this district.)

2nd District (Green)

This district is currently Michigan's most Republican district by PVI. I don't think my alterations will change that. It gives up its northern reaches to the new 1st and stretches inland, taking in Grand Rapids' northern suburbs and exurbs.

3rd District (Purple)

The primary Republican concern with this district is making sure it has enough suburban/exurban territory to overwhelm the Democratic urban core in Grand Rapids. It gives up some territory north of the city and gains Eaton county to the east. I think this will be slightly more Republican than the existing 3rd.

4th District (Red)

As currently configured, this district is something of a left-overs district, taking in the northern counties not in the Upper Peninsula-based 1st or the Lake-Michigan-coast-based 2nd. Under my proposal, it becomes a somewhat more focused Central Michigan district. Largest city (and hometown of incumbent David Camp) Midland is now in the center of the district instead of on its eastern fringe. It takes in all of Democratic Bay county, but I think the rest of the territory is Republican enough to handle it.

5th District (Yellow)

The proposed 5th district is much like its 1990s-district-plan predecessor, taking in much of the Thumb instead of Bay City. This is because eliminating Levin's 12th district pulled Candice Miller's 10th district out of the Thumb. Since it's over that way anyway, it runs a tendril down the St Clair River to relieve Miller of smallish-but-heavily-Democratic Port Huron.

6th District (Teal)

Not much changes for the 6th. It exchanges a few townships in Calhoun county for a few in Branch, and takes in the rest of Allegan county. That last change should make it slightly more Republican. Incumbent Fred Upton should remain fine here.

7th District (Grey)

This proposal's greatest weakness. Newly re-elected Tim Walberg has a district with a PVI of R+2. Getting Monroe county from the dismantled-by-reapportionment 15th in exchange for giving the new 3rd Eaton county is essentially a wash. I just don't think that there's much the Republicans can really do to shore this district up.

8th District (Slate Blue)

Still subsumes Lansing in a sea of Republican-heavy exurbs. This configuration gives up somewhat-Republican Clinton county to gain very-Republican Lapeer county, so Mike Rogers should be happy.

9th District (Cyan)

The new 9th is one of the center-pieces of the plan. It combines most of Gary Peter's current 9th with about half of Sander Levin's current 12th. If it came to a primary, I'm not sure what would happen. Where the current 9th was designed as a Republican seat that's just slipped away, this 9th would be a Democratic safe seat, anchored by Southfield, Royal Oak, and Pontiac.

10th District (Deep Pink)

Candice Miller's 10th is pulled south by the elimination of the old 12th. Losing most its rural hinterland, the new 10th is definitely more Democratic than the old one, but I don't think it's that much more. I think Miller should still be fine. In one of the rare set of calculations I did do, the portions of Macomb county not in the district (ie, in the new 13th) voted for 63% for Obama. The portions of Macomb in the district voted only 52% for Obama. That probably means that Bush won the new 10ths portion of the county in 2004 (here, we're back to no calculations.)

11th District (Lime Green)

In order to shore up McCotter, the district loses three of its inner surburbs and snakes around the north side of the new 9th to pick up some more heavily Republican territory. McCotter should put up much better numbers in this reconfigured district.

12th District (Cornflower Blue)

With the dismantling of the old 12th, I reused the district designation for the reinvention of Dingell's dismantled-by-reapportionment 15th. The new 12th loses Monroe county to pick up the southern portions of Downriver. I'm pretty sure this will push its PVI in an even-more Democratic direction, and Dingell (and/or his successors) should be safe here all decade.

13th District (Salmon?)

The other centerpiece of this plan. It takes in roughly similar portions of Detroit as its predecessor (along with the Grosse Pointes and Harper Woods.) Instead of stretching into Downriver, though, it crosses over into southern Macomb, snatching away the eastern half of Levin's district and saving Miller from having to take on the most Democratic parts of the county. VRA: 53% black, 42% white.

14th District (Olive Drab)

Conyers' new district takes in basically the same portions of Detroit as his old one. The primary difference are the addition of Redford township, the subtraction of any part of Dearborn, and the taking in of the northern half of the Downriver communities instead of the western half. VRA: 53% black, 34% white.

Pre-Conclusionary Note

I was originally concerned about whether this was too much county-splitting in the Detroit area, but it's actually less than currently exists. Currently, the tri-county Detroit metro area has the following configuration:

Wayne: 2 full districts (13th, 14th), 2 partial districts (11th, 15th)
Oakland: 1 full district (9th), 3 partial districts (8th, 11th, 12th)
Macomb: 2 partial districts (10th, 12th)
for 10 total county-fragments.

Under this new configuration, the tri-county Detroit metro area looks like this:

Wayne: 1 full district (14th), 3 partial districts (11th, 12th, 13th)
Oakland: 1 full district (9th), 2 partial districts (8th, 11th)
Macomb: 2 partial districts (10th, 13th)
for 9 total county-fragments.

Conclusion (TL;DR version)

By eliminating Levin's 12th district, I created four packed super-safe districts for the Democrats in the metro Detroit area, with one other safe Democratic district in the Flint-Saginaw area. Republican incumbents in the 1st, 3rd, 6th, and 11th districts are shored up. Republican incumbents in the 4th and 10th districts take minor hits. The Republican incumbent in the 2nd district needed no help; and the one in the 7th district is unhelpable. This plan would more or less lock in an 8 GOP – 5 Dem – 1 swing district pattern for the rest of the decade.

Alot of people have pointed out that House losses in Ohio shouldn’t be a big deal because the GOP has already gerrymandered Ohio to their maximum advantage.

However, what that fails to take into context is that Ohio is about to lose 2 of its 18 seats once the census figures are published, which gives the GOP an opportunity to take a 13-5 House advantage to 13-3. Below are some scenarios that will enable them to accomplish that:

Lost Seat #1: Shore up Jim Renacci, combine Tim Ryan and Betty Sutton.

This scenario seems like the easiest call for the Republicans. Currently Renacci was just elected to OH-16 which contains Stark (Canton/Massillon), Wayne (Wooster), Medina (Cleveland exurbs), and Ashland (rural, very conservative) Counties.

This district was drawn in 2000 to protect GOP moderate stalwart Ralph Regula who lived in the Canton area. Canton & Stark County also happen to be the most Dem friendly parts of the district as currently constructed, voting for both Kerry and Obama in 2004 & 2008. With Renacci’s home in Wadsworth (Medina County), it will be easy for Republicans to combine parts of the current OH-10, 13, 16, 17 & 18 into two districts.

Renacci’s new district will shift north and west, abandoning Stark County in the process by swallowing the Medina & Cuyahoga County portions of OH-13 (these suburbs: Strongsville, North Royalton & Brecksville are the most reliably GOP leaning areas of Dem-heavy Cuyahoga County), the eastern Lorain County portion of 13 (Avon, Avon Lake, North Ridgeville: fast growing GOP suburbs) and the western edge of OH-10 (Bay Village, Rocky River, Westlake). Whatever portions of Wayne & Ashland counties in the southern part of his current district that won’t fit population-wise can be eaten up by Gibbs in present-day OH-18.

That leaves a new Democratic district comprised of Akron, Canton & Youngstown that draws Sutton’s home in Copley (just outside Akron) and Ryan’s home in Niles (just outside Youngstown) into the same district and forces a primary between the two most promising congressional Dems in Ohio. Taking one of these two out will be a major boon to the GOP by eliminating or weakening the strongest challengers to Portman or Kasich in 2014 and 2016.

Lost Seat #2: This is where it gets harder for the GOP to come up with another lost Dem seat. The possibilities in order of likelihood:

1. With Renacci squeezing Kucinich to the west, the Republicans could draw a new minority-majority district in Cleveland by moving Fudge and Kucinich into the same district. This would involve LaTourette scraping off the eastern edge of Fudge’s territory. The new map would basically be the city of Cleveland + inner ring suburbs.

In this situation, Kucinich would likely retire or move to the suburbs to challenge Renacci where he would lose in an R+ district.

2. Split up Columbus 3 ways. Columbus presents a problem for Republicans in the state. It is the area that is experiencing the most population growth in the state, and it is also the area that is trending the strongest towards Democrats.

Currently OH-12 (Tibieri) and OH-15 (Stivers) represent the city by drawing in as much as they can from the sparsely populated surrounding counties. Even here, both districts are perpetually threatened, with Kilroy (D) holding OH-15 for one term before her defeat this year. OH-12 is actually the bluer of the two Columbus districts, but Dems can never seem to recruit the right candidate to beat Tibieri.

To stave off flipping one of these seats permanently to Team Blue, the GOP could find a way to give Gibbs or Turner a slice of the Columbus pie and keep Dem votes divided.

3. The last scenario I could see happening doesn’t get the GOP to 13-3, but could be a prudent strategic move for them in SW Ohio.

By eliminating OH-2 (Schmidt), they could expand Chabot’s district to the east and leave him less vulnerable to a Democratic wave year like 2008. Turner and Johnson (OH-6)would take what was left of Mean Jean’s territory and help shore up their own re-election hopes.

Schmidt’s constant underperformance is likely a drag on RCCC funds as they constantly have to defend the 2nd most Republican seat in Ohio due to the relative unpopularity of Ms. Schmidt.

These are just a few scenarios and I’m sure I’m missing others. Another possibility would be to force Marcy Kaptur and Bob Latta into a showdown, but Kapur’s seat is already so gerrymandered, I’m not sure how you draw in Toledo & the islands without strengthening the Dems.

Any thoughts?

Okay, so, Maryland has the trifecta, and it’s not afraid to use it. Republicans get to carve up some states they control in particularly nasty, ugly ways (I’m not looking forward to seeing how Augusta determines to create a 1-1 split, probably ousting Rep. Michaud in the process; North Carolina will be a veritable bloodbath in redistricting, and New Jersey won’t be much better), so I think Democrats should get to fight back in states like Maryland, Washington, and hopefully New York.

So, without further ado, I present to you a positively wicked 7-1 redistricting proposal for my state of residence.

Let’s start with MD-01. I guess the app decided to plop the “CD01” right where D.C. is, so just to be clear, I’m not advocating Maryland annex the nation’s capital as its new 1st congressional district.

MD-01 is pretty straightforward. I chopped most of the population centers out of Rep. Bartlett’s MD-06, including the swing city of Frederick, and combined it with Rep.-elect Harris’s Eastern Shore district, now with 100% less Anne Arundel County. Back to that in a second.

The important thing about MD-01 is that it’s the Republican district. According to the app, this hypothetical new MD-01 gave Sen. McCain 58% of the vote in 2008, with only 40% for the skinny Illinois senator we now know as President Barack Obama. This MD-01 would not be the safest Republican district in the country, but it’d be pretty safe.

Next up, MD-02. It was roughly at this point that I realized how messed up the current congressional districts of Maryland are. It’s bad enough to include parts of Anne Arundel County in a district with the Eastern Shore, but the way in which Rep. Ruppersberger’s district is drawn would be punishable by death in some countries.

What I decided to do is simplify things without sacrificing, well, let’s call it functionality. I also needed a way to swallow up some populous parts of MD-01, namely most of Baltimore County and parts of Harford County. This MD-02 includes parts of Baltimore City, although less than is currently drawn into the district because it no longer slithers south into Anne Arundel County. I mean, come on, guys.

The tradeoff of consolidating MD-02 with an eye toward siphoning off conservative MD-01 constituents and balancing them with ultra-liberal North Baltimore (the parts of Baltimore City included are a mix of super-white and super-black precincts, because a Democrat is a Democrat and we don’t make bones about it in MD-05) is that the district isn’t quite as solidly Democratic, but it’s hardly a swing district in an average year. Obama won this hypothetical MD-02 with 57% of the vote; McCain scraped up 41%.

And now for MD-03. If the current MD-02’s blatant and bizarre gerrymandered shape merited the death penalty, the lawman would bring back hanging, drawing, and quartering for MD-03. Staunchly liberal Rep. Sarbanes holds court over this district, drawn for the benefit of white dudes just like him, right now.

Because the way MD-03 is drawn right now is just plain stupid and there was still some of Harford County that needed addressing, I decided to run the new MD-03 from a tiny portion of western Cecil County, technically part of the Eastern Shore, into southern Baltimore County, with some spillage into northern Anne Arundel County and a weird little tentacle extending briefly into Howard County. It also includes the lion’s share of Baltimore City. I’ll grant it’s not tons better-looking in my drawing than it is now, but at least I didn’t gerrymander it for the benefit of those poor besotted white Democrats.

My version of MD-03 is DemStrong, having gone 60% for Obama to 38% for McCain in 2008. It’s now 30% black, proportionally almost twice what it is now, but if Sarbanes or some other white Democrat can’t get African Americans to vote for him, that’s his problem.

On to MD-04. I don’t know why this district is drawn so weirdly right now, because I feel like the way I’ve drawn it makes a lot more sense. Oh, I’ve got it: it’s gerrymandered to be majority-black. Rep. Edwards, who is a damn good congresswoman, represents our current version of MD-04.

My version of MD-04 covers about half of Montgomery County, a few conservative precincts in Howard County I didn’t want going elsewhere, and most of northern Prince George’s County. It would become the new home of the University of Maryland, which doesn’t hurt a Democrat’s vote share.

Indeed, this version of MD-04 went for Obama 75-24. That’s dominating. I could probably feed more of Howard County into this district if I wanted to, but I decided to keep things as even as possible between the eight (2000 population for all is between 661,000 and 663,000, by the way).

MD-05 is my district. I switched around some parts of the eastern D.C. suburbs for compactness, although my incarnation of the district now represented by Rep. Hoyer, the House majority leader for not a whole lot longer, still has a weird finger extending into northern Prince George’s County, capturing Greenbelt and a few other mid-sized suburbs.

The majority-black eastern suburbs more than balance out swingy southern Maryland in my drawing of MD-05. This new district would actually be majority-black according to the 2000 Census, which says 51% of its hypothetical constituents are African American.

As you might expect, this MD-05 is heavily Democratic. It would have broken 77-23 for Obama if it had been a district back in 2008; either way, that’s what the voters who would be within its new boundaries did.

MD-06 is fun. It’s a completely different district in its present form, being the domain of arch-conservative Rep. Roscoe Barlett in northern and western Maryland. As mentioned before, I had MD-01 consume most of MD-06, so this new district is more fun.

This MD-06 is not the most fun, but it’s certainly the most all-new, because I basically carved it out of parts of the current MD-01, MD-03, and MD-04. It’s basically almost all of Anne Arundel County plus a good chunk of Prince George’s County, including Bowie, a midpoint city between D.C. and Baltimore.

Ultra-liberal Bowie and somewhat liberal Annapolis serve to balance out conservative Anne Arundel County. Voters in this hypothetical MD-06 broke 57-41 for Obama, which is not so bad when you consider the current version of MD-06 has a PVI of R+13.

Helping mop up is MD-07. Right now, MD-07 is a majority-black district represented by Rep. Cummings and covering most of the black neighborhoods of Baltimore City and Baltimore County, as well as most of Howard County. It had to take a hit, and I apologize for that.

There was a lot of the current MD-06 to split up, and a good portion of it was awarded to this proposed MD-07. It’s basically the current MD-07 with a few neighborhoods in Baltimore City split off and given to MD-02 and MD-03, then a huge swath of Carroll County and about a third of Frederick County absorbed for population balance. It’s a lot bigger, but it’s not abnormal population-wise (still falls within that range I mentioned earlier, at least under the 2000 Census).

Despite expanding to cover so large an area of rural, conservative Carroll County, this MD-07 would remain a Democratic stronghold. It broke 2:1 for Obama in 2008. It’s only 39% black with so much of mostly-white Carroll and Frederick counties added in, but a Democrat should be able to walk away with any election here regardless of race.

Last but not least, MD-08. Currently represented by plucky DCCC chair Rep. Van Hollen, the present version of MD-08 covers most of Montgomery County, in particular the eastern, whiter parts of Maryland’s richest county-level subdivision.

I decided I could put it to better use, so I gave parts of Montgomery County to MD-04 without radically changing the boundaries, and then I expanded up into Frederick County and parts of southern Washington County. This is where the city of Frederick, which broke fairly decisively for Obama in 2008, wound up.

The new MD-08 would have a 2008 voter breakdown almost identical to that of MD-07. 66% of its voters went for Obama; 32% of them went for McCain. It’s only 10% black, because of how predominantly white Frederick County and the parts of Montgomery County is covers are.

So there you have it. It can be done. Let’s hope Annapolis pulls the trigger, because we shouldn’t let the Republicans have all the fun in 2012 redistricting.

• IL-Gov: The DGA is sending ’round a press release congratulating Pat Quinn on his who’da-thunk-it re-election victory. No official call yet, but the trendlines in the count (with a margin now of 20,000 votes) make it pretty clear what’s happening. Bill Brady says he isn’t ready to concede… yet. UPDATE: CNN has called it.

• CT-Gov: More vacillation in the Connecticut count, this time with Dan Malloy back on top by about 6,000 votes. This doesn’t seem to have anything to do with actual counting, but simply with the AP getting its facts straight (it seemed to be missing a large slab of urban and assumedly heavily Democratic votes, mostly from New Haven). Final tallies remain unknown because we’re still waiting on Bridgeport (another Dem stronghold), although SoS Susan Bysiewicz has promised results by the end of the day. (Doesn’t seem like she’ll make it, though.) Relatedly, Dan Debicella in CT-04 is “waiting and seeing” what the Bridgeport situation is before conceding, although that race has already been called against him.

• FL-Gov: This was pretty well decided yesterday, but Alex Sink officially conceded, finalizing the transaction on Rick Scott’s self-financed purchase of the gubernatorial election.

• NE-Sen: Ben Nelson says he won’t switch parties. (Why the heck would he want to, considering that the Dems still have a Lieberman-proof majority in the Senate, that he’s part of? He’d just get teabagged to death in the 2012 GOP primary a la poor Parker Griffith.) It’s worth wondering, though, if any House Dems are considering a switch… but, with the possible exception of Dan Boren, all of the most likely suspects have already lost, saving us the trouble of such speculation. UPDATE: Although here’s an interesting post-script to the Nelson story: GOP Gov. Dave Heineman, who’s led a few hypothetical polls against Nelson for 2012, has already announced that he won’t run for the Senate in two years.

• NV-Sen: The one major race where the polls really seemed off was Nevada, where Harry Reid’s 4-pt average deficit turned into a 5-point victory and in retrospect, that’s easy to explain: pollsters weren’t reaching Latinos. Exit polls suggest that Latinos did turn out well in Nevada (thanks in no doubt to the Reid-friendly hotel unions in Las Vegas). Nate Silver graphs the variance in other states with large Latino populations: it may also have played a role in Colorado, although the poll variance wasn’t as bad there, though it was enough to predict a Ken Buck victory… and Latino turnout didn’t seem to work in Texas, where Rick Perry exceeded polling predictions (and which explains the sudden and probably brief appearance of Rep. Blake Farenthold).

• KY-06: Here’s a race that’s definitely going to recount. Andy Barr, trailing Ben Chandler by about 600 votes, has formally requested a “routine recanvass.”

• NC-02: Here’s one more race where we’re not quite dead yet. Bob Etheridge hasn’t conceded, it turns out, nor should he: he’s down only 1,646 votes, after cutting his deficit against Renee Elmers by more than 500 in late counting yesterday.

• NC-11: When Heath Shuler announced that he’d challenge Nancy Pelosi for Speaker, the proper response was laughter, although my main question at the time was whether he planned to challenge her for minority leader. It sounds like, yes, he does still plan to go through with his kooky gambit (made all the kookier because there aren’t any core Blue Dogs left besides him who need to follow through on their promises to not vote for Pelosi). Anyway, the scuttlebutt seems to be leaning toward a voluntary sword-falling and a painless transition to Steny Hoyer, in which case the Shuler challenge would be even more pointless.

• WV-01: After maintaining for most of yesterday that he wasn’t dead yet (given the narrow margin, currently 1,357), Mike Oliverio did wind up conceding eventually late yesterday.

• Redistricting: As much as the mess in the state legislatures really messes up hopes of wresting an advantage out of the redistricting process, here’s some good news: Amendment 6 in Florida surprisingly passed, clearing the super-high 60% hurdle at 63%. This doesn’t create a commission, but it does impose requirements that redistricting be done without political consideration (but without violating federal law, namely the Voting Rights Act). However, two U.S. Reps… probably the two in Florida who have the most to lose from having less friendly districts drawn for them… Corrine Brown and Mario Diaz-Balart, are challenging the law in court. With the passage of Proposition 20 in California, though, which creates an independent redistricting commission there, it’s all kind of a wash, as a less-bad Florida map is balanced out by not being able to aggressively redistrict California. (Similarly, while it takes some sting out of Alex Sink’s narrow loss, it also deflates the impact of Jerry Brown’s victory.)

The list, so far:

Here’s a full list of the state legislative chambers flipped by Republicans on Tuesday: Alabama House and Senate, Colorado Senate, Indiana House, Iowa House, Maine House and Senate, Minnesota House and Senate, Michigan House, Montana House, New Hampshire House and Senate, North Carolina House and Senate, Ohio House, Pennsylvania House and Wisconsin House and Senate.

Additionally, the New York state Senate is looking bad.

In many states, redistricting control is pre-determined or essentially a foregone conclusion.  I count 37 states in that category.

Note: In the lists below, the number in parentheses next to each state is the number of districts predicted for 2012 by Election Data Services:

http://www.electiondataservice…

Single District States:

Alaska (1)

Delaware (1)

Montana (1)

North Dakota (1)

South Dakota (1)

Vermont (1)

Wyoming (1)

Existing Commissions:

Arizona (9)

Hawaii (2)

Idaho (2)

New Jersey (12)

Washington (10)

(note: Iowa is discussed below)

New Commission:

California (53) – Prop. 20 will pass

Democratic control:

Arkansas (4) – Beebe will win easily

Maryland (8) – O’Malley has double-digit lead

Massachusetts (9) – Every poll has Patrick ahead by a small but consistent margin

West Virginia (3) – State Senate President Tomblin (D) would become acting Governor if Manchin wins his Senate race

Split control:

Kentucky (6) – State Senate will stay Republican

Louisiana (6) – No legislative elections this year

Maine (2) – Governor will be R or I, but Dems will keep control of the State House (currently 95D-55R)

Mississippi (4) – No legislative elections this year

Missouri (9) Nixon with Republican legislature

Nevada (3) – Sandoval with Democratic Assembly and probably a Democratic State Senate (currently 12D-9R) as well

New Hampshire (2) – Lynch with Republican legislature

New Mexico (3) – Martinez with Democratic legislature

Rhode Island (2) – Chafee with Democratic legislature

Virginia (11) – Luckily, no state legislative elections this year so Dems will keep their 22-18 State Senate majority

Republican control:

Georgia (14) – Barnes started out strong but has faded

Indiana (9) – R’s already have control because of how the committe members are selected, but will also win the State House

Kansas (4) – Kansas is not going to get well any time soon

Nebraska (3) – non-partisan legislature in name only; it is controlled by Republicans

Oklahoma (5) – Gov race is a blowout

Pennsylvania (18) – D’s only have 104-99 control of State House and that will not hold up

South Carolina (7) – Shaheen was our only shot

Tennessee (9) – Total wipeout at all levels

Texas (36) – The best to hope for is Dems to still have some influence in the State House based on their coalition with the Speaker

Utah (4) – About as Safe R as you can get

That leaves 13 states that are up for grabs tomorrow.  Here is how I see those playing out:

Democratic control:

Minnesota (8) – Narrow Dayton win (don’t worry Mark) and D’s hold the legislature where they have plenty of room to absorb any losses that may occur

Oregon (5) – Kitzhaber appears to be slightly ahead and Dems will narrowly keep their majority in the State Senate (currently 18D-12R) and House (36D-24R)

Split control:

Colorado (7) – Hickenlooper wins but Republicans take at least one legislative chamber (this will be very close and could end up a Dem control state)

Connecticut (5) – It’s all up to the Governor’s race and Foley seems to have the momentum.  D control of the legislature is not in doubt.

Florida (27) – Sink will squeak by in a photo finish.  Also, Amendment 6 (non-partisan guidelines for drawing Congressional maps) will just get the 60% necessary to pass.  This is the most important state to watch tomorrow, because if Sink and Amendment 6 both fail, Republicans will have carte blanche

Illinois (18) – Likely R Gov since Quinn cannot gain any traction but also very likely D hold of State Senate and House

Iowa (4) – In addition to winning the Governor’s race, R’s have a decent shot at the State House (now 56D-44R) and a very outside shot at the State Senate (now 32D-18R).  Iowa has a Commission but the legislature must approve the maps.

Michigan (14) – Dems hold on, barely in the State House (currently 65D-43R). Hopefully, Snyder’s coattails are not too much to overcome

New York (27) – Dems narrowly lose control of the State Senate (currently 32D-30R) since they would have to run the table on all the close races

North Carolina (13) – Both chambers are equally in danger of flipping to the Republicans so let’s split the difference and say one flips and the other doesn’t.  The Gov cannot veto the maps, so legislative control is the whole ballgame

Republican control:

Alabama (7) – The Dems best chance to hold is in the State House (60D-45R), but special elections over the past year have shown that Alabama had already been trending heavily Republican and that trend will continue

Ohio (16) – Strickland could pull it out, but right now Kasich is a very narrow favorite.  The State House (53D-46R) contains too many R targets for the Dems to fight off

Wisconsin (8) – Dems would go from controlling all 3 pillars to 0.  There is still a chance, though, that they could hold onto either the State Senate (18D-15R) or House (52D-46R)

So, adding everything up, here is what I come up with:

Commissions: 88 districts

Single district states: 7 districts

Democratic control: 37 districts

Split control: 163 districts

Republican control: 140 districts

Things could have been much better with just California and New York moving to the Dem side (a total of 80 districts), but that appears not to be in the cards.

For more details, a useful reference is the Governing.com article (released today) rating the legislative races, chamber by chamber.:

http://www.governing.com/blogs…