Tag: Redistricting

I drew this map assuming New Jersey will lose a congressional district. I tried to create 10 Democratic districts and 2 heavily Republican districts. I think at least 2 of the Democratic districts are shaky but the other 8 should hold fine. What I did was eliminate two Republicans, create a new Democratic district and strengthen Obama’s percentage in the 2nd district held by Frank LoBiondo. I did not want to go all out and try for an 11-1 Democratic delegation. My first priority was to strengthen shaky Democrats. The next map I will do will be either Georgia or Louisiana. I have not completely decided yet. I am also starting work on a Minnesota map. That is why I put a poll here to see which one you want me to do first. Safe Democrat/Republican means that the incumbent party solidly has a hold on that district. Likely Democrat/Republican means that the district appears solid but could become competitive. Lean Democrat/Republican means that the district is competitive but one party has a lead. Toss Up means the district is 50-50. With a tilt, it means that the party it tilts to has a 55%-60% chance of winning. You can view the maps at http://frogandturtle.blogspot….

District 1: Rob Andrews (D) (Blue)

This district goes far out of the former area. It takes in Salem and parts of Cape May and Cumberland Counties. I gave it all of Gloucester but took out a lot of Camden County. I kept in Camden and some other heavily Democratic towns to keep it safe for Andrews. Obama probably won around 60% of the vote here. The district contains Gloucester County and parts of Camden, Cape May and Cumberland Counties. The stats are 17% Black and 14% Hispanic with a 66% white population. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 2 Frank LoBiondo (R) (Green)

By taking out most of Cape May and adding part of Camden County, I hope I gave LoBiondo enough Democrats to be kicked out. I kept his home in this district so he would not be inclined to run against Rob Andrews and give him a tough race. I do not know who the challenger to Frank LoBiondo would be but I am sure the Democrats in Camden can find someone. I intended to make this district Democratic enough to throw out LoBiondo. The district contains Atlantic County and parts of Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Cape May and Ocean Counties. I estimate that Obama won it with about 55% to 59% of the vote. The stats are 13% African American, 9% Hispanic and 73% White. Status is Toss Up if Lo Biondo runs, Lean Democrat if he bails out.

District 3 John Adler (D) (Purple)

Since he is a freshman Congressman who barely won in this district, my first priority was to protect him. I removed all of Ocean County from this district. I added part of Trenton and Mercer County which I estimate gives him an extra 15,000 to 20,000 vote margin for Obama. The margin for Obama in Burlington County is about 55,000 votes and Cherry Hill in Camden gave Obama a 10,000 vote margin. Even though I had to put a bit of Monmouth County in for population purposes, it should take more than 15,000 votes away from Adler. The district contains parts of Burlington, Camden, Monmouth and Mercer Counties. I estimate that Obama won here between 59% and 63% of the vote. The stats are 14% Black, 9% Hispanic and 69% White.  Status is Safe Democrat.

District 4 Chris Smith (R) (Red)

As much as I dislike Chris Smith, I decided to give him a safe Republican district. He was elected the same day Reagan was elected so I figured wherever I put him, he would hold his roots. I gave him most of Ocean County and southern Monmouth County, excluding Democratic precincts in Neptune and Asbury Park. I created this district to pack in all the Republicans so I could make the 2nd, 3rd, 6th and 7th more Democratic. The district contains parts of Ocean and Monmouth Counties. The stats for this district are 7% Hispanic and 85% White. McCain probably won this area with a margin between 56% and 60%. Status is Safe Republican.

District 5 Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) vs. Leonard Lance (R) vs. Scott Garrett (R) (Yellow)

Now wasn’t that a good idea to put three Republicans in the same district? There is no question that a Republican will win this district. It contains all of Sussex and Warren Counties with parts of Bergen, Hunterdon, Morris and Somerset Counties. McCain probably won this with 57% to 61%. The question is which Republican will win it? It looks pretty masterful, sticking all these Republicans in the same district. Both Lance and Frelinghuysen are moderates. My biggest worry is that Frelinghuysen will run in the 11th district which I created for a Democrat. With his moderate voting record, Frelinghuysen could win it if he faces weak opposition. If Lance and Frelinghuysen faced off, I think Frelinghuysen would win because he is more entrenched in his district and he has more of it in District 5 than Lance does. Garrett’s old district only contains Sussex and Warren Counties. That could be enough to win. The district contains Sussex and Warren Counties as well as parts of Bergen, Hunterdon, Morris, Passaic and Somerset counties. The stats are 86% White. Status is Safe Republican.

District 6 Frank Pallone (D) (Teal)

I had to remove some heavily Democratic areas such as Plainfield and part of New Brunswick mostly to strengthen the 7th and the 11th districts. Still, I kept enough Democratic areas in to keep the district strongly Democratic. Even though a lot of the district is in Monmouth County, I gave it Democratic areas like Neptune and Asbury Park. Since Pallone has been a Congressman here for awhile, he should be safe. I estimate that Obama won this district with about 58% to 61% of the vote. The district contains parts of Monmouth and Middlesex Counties. The racial stats for this district are 9% Black, 12% Hispanic, 13% Asian and 64% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 7 Rush Holt (D) (Gray)

Yes, this district looks very safe for Rush Holt. Maybe I went a little too far to protect him, giving him parts of New Brunswick and Plainfield, heavily Democratic areas. I just wanted to protect him enough to make sure Lance decides not to run against him. I think Holt can handle himself but Lance is a pretty strong competitor. Lance won by 8 points in an open seat race in 2008. He ran in the 7th district and Obama won it. I think half of Trenton and the heavily Democratic areas in Middlesex and Plainfield should keep Holt safe. The district contains parts of Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset and Union Counties. I estimate that Obama won this district with about 57% to 62% of the vote. The stats are 16% Black, 14% Asian, 13% Hispanic and 56% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 8 Bill Pascrell (D) (Light Purple)

I’d like to tell Bill that I am sorry I had to push his district so far out into the not-so Democratic western Bergen County. Still, he should be fine in his district containing all of heavily Democratic Paterson and some other Democratic cities like Passaic. That portion of the county probably voted for Obama somewhere in the neighborhood of 50,000 votes. The Bergen County portion should not be more than 20,000 votes at the highest for McCain. This leaves Pascrell with a district that voted about 57% for Obama. This should be safe unless Scott Garrett surprisingly jumps into the race. That probably should not happen so it looks like Pascrell is safe for now. The district contains parts of Bergen, Essex and Passaic Counties. The racial stats for the district are 8% Black, 26% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 58% White. Status is Likely Democratic.

District 9 Steve Rotham (D) (Bright Blue)

Even though I extended his district far out to the New York border, I think Democratic margins in Hackensack and other Democratic areas will counter the Republican margins by a lot of votes. I think Obama won this district with 59% of the vote but I am not completely sure. This district should be safe for Steve Rotham. It contains parts of Bergen, Essex and Hudson Counties. The stats are 7% Black, 21% Hispanic, 16% Asian and 55% White. Status is Safe Democrat

District 10 Donald Payne (D) (Dark Pink)

I believe he is the safest Democrat in NJ. It was hard for me to keep it majority Black and I barely did. I wish I could give more of this district to strengthen the 8th and 11th but I could not because of the Voting Rights Act. It says that the 10th district will not be protected if it has less than a majority of a certain minority. I virtually tried to keep it the same as it is now. I estimate that Obama won here somewhere in the 85% range. The district contains parts of Essex, Hudson and Union Counties. The stats are 50% African American, 19% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 24% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 11 No Incumbent (Light Green)

My biggest fear is that Frelinghuysen will run in this district to prevent a challenging primary in the 5th. I tried to make the district as Democratic as possible and I removed Frelinghuysen’s home from it to discourage him from running here. I was careful to put in towns like Dover and Morristown which are heavily Democratic towns in Morris County. I also slipped this district into Essex County to take in areas that the 10th district did not contain. Even though the 10th contains all the heavily Democratic areas in Essex County, I still found room for some in the 11th district. I also extended it into Union County to take in the moderate suburbs of Westfield and Summit. Obama won them each by about 10 points. I was able to get part of heavily Democratic Plainfield into this district. It should be safe enough for a Democrat. The district contains parts of Essex, Middlesex, Morris, Somerset and Union Counties. I think that Obama won with 54%-56% of the vote here. The racial stats are 9% Black, 9% Asian, 11% Hispanic and 71% White. Status is Toss up/Tilt Democratic if Frelinghuysen runs. Status is Likely Democrat if Frelinghuysen does not run here.

District 12 Albio Sires (D) (Light Blue)

I designed this district to be a Hispanic majority district. I just barely succeeded. Still, Sires should be safe from a primary challenge from a non Hispanic candidate. This is a pretty long and thin district. It stretches from Perth Amboy in Middlesex County and goes up to the Hudson/Bergen County border. The district contains parts of Essex, Hudson, Middlesex and Union Counties. I estimate that Obama won here with about 74% of the vote. The racial stats are 9% Black, 7% Asian, 50.0% Hispanic and 33% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

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(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)

Redistricting is popular around here, so I really don’t need to explain this any more. Here’s a plan for Nevada that’s 3-1. I wanted to protect Berkley and Titus, and create a 3rd Democratic district.

I crunched population data by census block for Clark County into precincts, and by census VTDs for Douglas, Lyon, and Nye Counties.

So here’s the map:

Data (both political and population) after the flip.

Here’s are closeups of Douglas and Clark/Southern Nye Counties:

 

And closeups of the Las Vegas area, the first with precincts and the second with incorporated cities and CDPs labelled.

My goals going into this were:

1.) To make sure the new district elects a Democrat.
2.) To shore up the three Central/Southern Georgia Democrats (especially Marshall and Barrow), not only for the incumbents but also Democrats in general if and when those seats come open.
3.) To create or expand our bench in our districts.
4.) To fuck with Phil Gingrey and John Linder to the best of my ability.
5.) To try my best not create an ode to the Flying Spaghetti Monster. 

To that end, I think I accomplished these goals.  My maps:

Atlanta Metro Area

1st District (Jack Kingston [R]) BLUE
New Demographics: 71.3% white | 20.8% black | .3% Native American | 1.1% Asian | 5.4% Hispanic | .1% other
Old Demographics: 72.8% white | 21.2% black | .2% Native American | .9% Asian | 3.9% Hispanic | 1% other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other
I used this as a dumping ground for Republican votes from the 8th and 12th districts while trying to remove Democratic areas for use in those districts.  Kingston gains several Republican counties to the north from the 12th, including much of Effingham County exchange for heavily Democratic Liberty County, some black(er) areas in McIntosh County as well as connectors in Chatham County.  He also picks up much of heavily Republican Laurens County as well as other parts from the 8th.  Surprisingly, the district gets a bit more diverse (and even more surprisingly, from Asians, Hispanics, and Native Americans), but don't hold your breath; it's a very small increase.  Kingston will win in a cakewalk; our bench in the district is non-existent, at least at the state legislature-level.

2nd District (Sanford Bishop [D]) GREEN
New Demographics: 48.4% white | 45.2% black | .3% Native American | .8% Asian | 4.3% Hispanic | 1% other
Old Demographics: 49.7% white | 45.1% black | .3% Native American | .6% Asian | 3.3% Hispanic | .9% other
Old District: 51.4% white | 44.8% black | .3% Native American | .6% Asian | 3.5% Hispanic | .1% other
With some minor scandal involving Bishop and rumors of an adminstration post, I felt the need to shore up his district a bit, considering Bush won it in 2004.  Population loss/stagnation and losses of area to the 8th necessitated moving the district northward, taking up more of Columbus, as well as extending up to take on the swingy Meriwether County plus the heavily black parts of Troup County in and around LaGrange.  Essentially, I added state Rep. Carl von Epps' district.  This also helped offset the addition of very Republican Colquitt County.  The district goes from majority white to plurality white and is trending even more minority.  Bishop should have no trouble and his successor should be in a relatively good position. 

3rd District (Lynn Westmoreland [R]) PLUM
New Demographics: 71.3% white | 20.8% black | .3% Native American | 1.1% Asian | 5.4% Hispanic | .1% other
Old Demographics: 79% white | 16.6% black | .3% Native American | 1.1% Asian | 2% Hispanic | 1% other
Old District: 72.6% white | 22.7% black | .3% Native American | .9% Asian | 4.1% Hispanic | .2% other
The 3rd loses more of Muscogee County /Columbus to the 2nd and some of its Metro Atlanta area but now goes to the Macon area, making it more of a Central Georgia district.  Other than the peninsulas from the 2nd district, it's actually more compact than before. This area has diversified at a pretty good clip, but even running 80 MPH takes a long time when you're driving from New York to Los Angeles.  Plus, it's still demographically very similar to Westmoreland's old district.  Looks like we would have to deal with his “uppity” ass for a while.

4th District (Hank Johnson [D]) RED
New Demographics: 29.9% white | 53.4% black | .2% Native American | 4.3% Asian | 10.8% Hispanic | 1.2% other
Old Demographics: 31.3% white | 54.3% black | .2% Native American | 4.1% Asian | 8.1% Hispanic | 2% other
Old District: 35.8% white | 53.5% black | .4% Native American | 4.3% Asian | 8.5% Hispanic | 0% other
I undid the horrendous four-way cracking of DeKalb, replacing it with a two-way split.  The fourth occupies the overwhelming majority of DeKalb, having been moved completely out of Gwinnett and Rockdale Counties and absorbing DeKalb areas from the 5th, 6th, and 13th.  Even though North DeKalb is pretty white, the additions from Central and South DeKalb more than make up for it.  The district gets a little less black but even more minority than before.  Hank Johnson will win easily.

5th District (John Lewis [D]) YELLOW
New Demographics: 29.9% white | 57.9% black | .2% Native American | 2.8% Asian | 8.2% Hispanic | 1% other
Old Demographics: 31.2% | 59.6% black | .2% Native American | 2% Asian | 5.7% Hispanic | 1.3% other
Old District: 37% white | 56.1% black | .2% Native American | 2.2% Asian | 6.1% Hispanic | 0% other
Pretty similar to its current form, especially in Clayton and Fulton Counties.  It's still an Atlanta plus some inner-ring suburbs districts, taking in slighly less of Forest Park and South Fulton but a bit more of unincorporated Clayton and a bit more of Sandy Springs.  The big difference is it being reducing to about 45% of it's DeKalb area, including its portion of Decatur, and is basically left with the DeKalb portion of Atlanta plus some areas northeast of this area.  John Lewis has nothing to worry about.

6th District (Tom Price [R] vs. Phil Gingrey [R]) TEAL
New Demographics: 75.3% white | 9% black | .3% Native American | 6.3% Asian | 7.7% Hispanic | 1.5% other
Old Demographics: 80.6% white | 7.9% black | .2% Native American | 4.3% Asian | 5.1% Hispanic | 1.8% other
Old District: 85.6% white | 7% black | .2% Native American | 4% Asian | 4.5% Hispanic | .1% other
This is one of my “fuck with the Republicans” districts.  Like before, the district includes white, affluent, Republican North Fulton County (including Tom Price's home) and East Cobb (likewise white, affluent, and Republican).  However, instead of going east to take up North DeKalb County and north to pick up Cherokee County, it goes west to take up the northern half of Cobb County.  In the general election, this doesn't mean anything; it's still a heavily white, Republican district in which we have no bench (although there is some diversification and it now includes a major state university).  However, the district now includes Phil Gingrey's home between Kennesaw and Marietta!

7th District (John Linder [R] vs. ?) GRAY
New Demographics: 68.1% white | 10.8% black | .3% Native American | 6.1% Asian | 13.5% Hispanic | 1.2% other
Old Demographics: 79% white | 6.8% black | .2% Native American | 3.9% Asian | 8.7% Hispanic | 1.3% other
Old District: 85.2% white | 7.1% black | .3% Native American | 3.8% Asian | 5.4% Hispanic | .1% other
Same thing with as with the 6th.  Linder loses more of the diverse areas of Gwinnett County to the 14th, as well as the Newton, Walton, and Barrow County portions.  In return, he gains almost all of Forsyth County and the Southern half of Hall County.  Depending on who wins the Republican primary in the current 9th district, this may set up a primary in this new 7th.  Regardless, this will be a Republican seat for the foreseeable future.  However, it's rapidly diversifying with every minority group taking up a larger share than before.  I think Linder's days are numbered.  It may be a fairly big number, but numbered all the same.

8th District (Jim Marshall [D]) PERIWINKLE
New Demographics: 54.2% white | 40% black | .2% Native American | 1.1% Asian | 3.6% Hispanic | 1% other
Old Demographics: 55.6% white | 39.8% black | .2% Native American | .8% Asian | 2.6% Hispanic | 1% other
Old District: 64% white | 32.6% black | .2% Native American | .8% Asian | 2.8% Hispanic | 1.4% other
Basically, I shifted the district southward and worked to make sure it was more favorable on a presidential level in anticipation of Marshall's eventual departure for higher office.  So, this meant I had to cut almost all of Laurens County out of the district.  Marshall won it big, but Obama lost it big, and Marshall performed less strikingly there in the past.  I regrettably had to remove Dem-trending Newton County from the district, but the benefit from having it in the district was outweighed by the cost of having four heavily Republican counties in the district to connect Newton to the rest of the district, especially considering Marshall only barely won Newton and lost it in 2006.  While I was at it, I also cut out the whiter parts of Bibb County.  I also removed the troublesome Colquitt County, home of Saxby Chambliss and added a few blue and purple counties along the boomerang.  I also shifted down to add Valdosta, thus increasing our bench as all four members of the state legislature from this area are Democrats.  I would have liked to have removed the more Republican parts of Houston County, but I don't know where I'd make up the lost population, but, overall, I think I made Marshall's life much easier, as the district has gotten significantly more diverse and more Democratic. Maybe he can suck less.

9th District (?) CYAN
New Demographics: 85.2% white | 3% black | .3% Native American | .8% Asian | 10% Hispanic | .8% other
Old Demographics: 89.9% white | 2.6% black | .3% Native American | .6% Asian | 6.6% Hispanic | .9% other
Old District: 82.5% white | 13.7% black | .3% Native American | 1.2% Asian | 2.6% Hispanic | .1% other
I made this district more rectangular, removing the parts that dip into the Metro Atlanta area (for the past part), giving it Chattooga and the rest of Gordon Counties, and stretching it all the way to the South Carolina border.  So, now it borders four different states.  I don't know who it will be, but this district will elect a Republican.  We have no bench whatsoever, and this would be the whitest district in Georgia.  Not only is it the whitest district, but, despite some diversification, it's also the least diverse; the majority black districts are more diverse. 

10th District (Paul Broun [R]) HOT PINK
New Demographics: 77% white | 16.3% black | .2% Native American | 1.7% Asian | 3.7% Hispanic | 1.1% other
Old Demographics: 79.9% white | 15.4% black | .2% Native American | 1.3% Asian | 2% Hispanic | 1.1% other
Old District: 89.7% white | 3.4% black | .3% Native American | .7% Asian | 9.2% Hispanic | .3% other
Other than having the tentacle from the 12th come in, the new 10th actually has a pretty regular, compact shape compared to its predecessor.  It still has a lot of its area along the South Carolina border, including the white, Republican suburbs of Augusta, but now includes parts of the Atlanta and Macon exurbs.  It's actually ten points less white than before, but means it's now only 77% white.  In other words, don't expect Broun to go anywhere, unless he gets primaried, which may happen now that a lot of his Athens primary base is gone.

11th District (New Seat) [This would be my district, by the way] NEON GREEN
New Demographics: 79.5% white | 11% black | .3% Native American | 1.3% Asian | 6.8% Hispanic | 1.2% other
Old Demographics: 86.1% white | 7.8% black | .2% Native American | .9% Asian | 3.9% Hispanic | 1.1% other
Old District: 64.8% white | 28.5% black | .3% Native American | 1.3% Asian | 7.2% Hispanic | .1% other
The new 11th looks a lot like the old 11th but becomes more exurban and suburban.  It sheds Chattooga County and its portions of Cobb and Gordon Counties for East Douglas County , a sliver of Forsyth County, and Cherokee County.  I fear I may be switching one wingnut for another in redistricting Gingrey out of his district.  We only have one state legislator in the district and he would be an idiot to try for it.  This is a demographically unfriendly district, although there may be some solace to tke from its diversification.  Still, there's a long way to go before this one's demographics are promising.

12th District (John Barrow [D]) POWDER BLUE
New Demographics: 47.4% white | 45.8% black | .2% Native American | 1.6% Asian | 4.2% Hispanic | 1.2% other
Old Demographics: 47.5% white | 44.3% black | .2% Native American | 1.4% Asian | 3.2% Hispanic | 1.3% other
Old District: 50.8% white | 44.5% black | .2% Native American | .8% Asian | 2.7% Hispanic | .1% other
I removed all or parts of some troublesome majority white, Republican counties (Bulloch, Candler, Effingham, Emmanuel, Mongtomgery, Tattnall, Treutlen, and Toombs) leaving only the areas that were more minority and/or necessary to maintain contiguousness.  In their place, I added heavily Democratic Liberty County by wrapping the district around the coastal areas of Chatham County and using water continguousness.  On the northside, I added some more of Augusta, the blacker parts of Green, and readded Clark County,  The district gets a little blacker and a lot of the old, rural white voters are replace with white voters in a college county more apt to not only vote Democratic but to vote for a black Democrat if and when Barrow gets primaried by a black Democrat.  In becoming more Democratic, I was able to free up some smaller counties along the boomerang for Jim Marshall.

13th District (David Scott [D]) SALMON
New Demographics: 36% white | 46.6% black | .3% Native American | 3% Asian | 12.6% Hispanic | 1.6% other
Old Demographics: 47.1% white | 39.6% black | .3% Native American | 2.4% Asian | 8.6% Hispanic | 2% other
Old District: 47% white | 44.1% black | .3% Native American | 5.1% Asian | 10.1% Hispanic | .1% other
The 13th stays the same mostly.  I removed some of Northeast Clayton County and added more of Central Cobb.  I also added some of the relatively more minority areas of North Fayette.  Overall, Scott's district, once plurality white, is now plurality black.  He'll do fine.

14th District (New District) OLIVE
New Demographics: 36.1% white | 36.4% black | .2% Native American | 7.7% Asian | 18.1% Hispanic | 1.5% other
Old Demographics: 54.7% white | 24.4% black | .2% Native American | 6.4% Asian | 12.3% Hispanic | 1.9% other

Last and certainly not least is the new 14th district.  This district wraps around the southeastern quadrant of the middle ring suburbs, taking in the blue and blueing areas, including Morrow, Stockbridge, McDonough, Conyers, Covington, Norcross, Lilburn, and Lawrenceville.  It would be by far Georgia's most diverse district, having the highest numbers of Asians and Hispanics, the second-highest number of “others,” is plurality black, and still has a respectable white population.  As you can see from the demographic trends, this one is getting even more diverse really quick.  This diversity is reflected in the state legislators whose districts are entirely or partially within the district which includes whites, blacks, and Hispanics.  If it doesn't elect a Democrat, then the Democratic Party has fucked up.

It's also interesting to look at the districts with the old numbers and see which areas are growing and which areas are stagnant or losing populations by seeing how under or over populated they are compared to the 2000-14 district average.  Judging from the numbers, the Southern and Central Georgia are rapidly atrophying.  The 2nd would have had 90,888 extra people!  The 1st would have 40,693, the 8th 55,570, and the 12th 67,639.  The third is pretty much stagnant, having just 2,366 extra people.  If this keeps up, I think we may be looking at the elimination of a district in Middle and South Georgia, and I think it would be a Democrat (my guess would be Marshall's district because of its centrality.

So, where are the people going?  To Metro Atlanta.  The 10th is 15,007 below average, much/most of which I suspect to be from the Metro portions of the district. The 5th is 22,014 under the average.  The 13th 26,921 under.  The 11th and 7th are under by over 60,000, 63,039 and 62,317, respectively.  The 14th is a whopping 120,767 under average.  Only the 4th and 6th are above average, to the tune of 36,782 and 11,235, respectively. 

Nevada Redistricting

According to the population estimates, I decided that Nevada would get a new congressional district even though it was hard hit by the foreclosure crisis. My goal was to create a new Democratic district while protecting newly elected Democrat Dina Titus in the 3rd Congressional district. I believe I succeeded  in packing most of the Republican areas into one district. I made the map with Dave’s Redistricting App which is really fantastic. My next map should be either Louisiana or New Jersey. Enough talk, here is the link to my maps: http://frogandturtle.blogspot….

District 1 Shelly Barkely (D) (Blue)

I gave Barkley a strong Democratic district containing much of Las Vegas and neighborhoods in North Las Vegas with high minority populations. Still, I believe I kept enough heavily Democratic areas out of the 1st to protect Titus and strengthen the 2nd. The district is still minority majority and I believe Barkley or any Democrat will have no trouble winning this district. It probably voted about 66% for Obama. The racial stats are 12% Black, 31% Hispanic, 8% Asian and 46% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 2 No Incumbent (Green)

This was the new district I created that I hope will vote Democratic. The current representative is Dean Heller and I put his home in Carson City outside of the district. I hope that will deter him from running here. Even though most of his district is here, it is the more Democratic parts. The district stretches from the northern border, through Reno, along the western border and finally goes to take in some Democratic neighborhoods in Clark County (Las Vegas.) I think 20% of the district is in Clark County and 60% is in Reno. This would almost ensure that if a Democrat is elected, he or she will be from Reno. Looking at the numbers, Obama won the northern part of the district by about 13,000 votes but I am not sure of his margin in the Clark County portion. I estimate that he still won about 53%-55% of the vote in this district. That percentage should be enough to elect a Democrat. The racial stats for this district are 3% Black, 24% Hispanic, 6% Asian and 64% White. Status is Lean Democrat.

District 3 Dina Titus (D) (Purple)

I definitely strengthened Dina Titus enough by giving her some precincts that were formerly in the 1st district and by taking out Republican parts of Henderson and the outer Las Vegas suburbs. I believe the district is too Democratic for Jon Porter. He will probably run for the Republican 4th district. Dina Titus should worry about nothing except that she might face a minority candidate in the primary. Whatever way it goes, this district is in Democratic hands for the foreseeable future. It probably voted around 61% for Obama. The racial stats are 10% Black, 31% Hispanic, 8% Asian and 49% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 4 Dean Heller (R) (Red)

This district is where I put most of the Republicans. It looks like it is centered in the “Cow Counties” or the counties outside of Clark and Reno Counties. Actually, it is based in Clark County and takes in Republican parts of Henderson. Even though I put Dean Heller’s home in the 4th district, I believe that Jon Porter or another Clark County Republican would run for this district. Dean Heller is a relatively new representative and he would definitely face trouble. Since most of the constituents live in Clark County, Heller will have to struggle to introduce himself to the people there. Still, I think it would be easy for a Clark County Republican to brand Heller as a Republican from the far corner of the state. Heller will probably lose but the district will most likely remain Republican. It probably voted about 56% to 59% for McCain. Racial stats are 4% Black, 18% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 70% White. Status is Safe Republican

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• DE-Sen: Wilmington News-Journal writer Ron Williams seems convinced that Rep. Mike Castle will be running for the open Senate seat in 2010 and will announce next month, based on his chats with unnamed “high-ranking Republican operatives who know Castle’s moods and inclinations.” He also points to Democratic “rumblings” that AG Beau Biden may pass on the race, to avoid a career-damaging defeat. The Hill tried to get confirmation on this and didn’t get any new information out of Castle, so take with as much salt as needed.

• FL-Sen: This is about the last thing anyone could have predicted: billionaire gadfly Tom Golisano, who ran three races for NY-Gov as an independent and was last seen pulling levers behind the curtain in the New York Senate semi-successsful-coup-type-thing has a new idea: running for Senate in Florida. Either on the Independence Party line (which does in fact exist in Florida, although barely)… or as a Democrat. Despite the fact that he just became a Florida resident a few months ago because he hated New York’s high taxes. Sounds like the kind of thing that’ll last until he’s distracted by another shiny object.

• MN-Sen: While we’re trafficking in thinly-sourced rumors, here’s one more: there are plans afoot for the “pre-concession BBQ” for Norm Coleman staffers.

• NH-Sen: AG Kelly Ayotte is reportedly “close” to deciding to run for Senate. (If you haven’t already read Laura Clawson‘s takedown last week of the circular rationale for the Ayotte boomlet, do it.)

• NV-Sen, NV-Gov: GOP Reno mayor Bob Cashell decided he didn’t really mean to endorse Harry Reid last week; he had co-hosted a fundraising reception for Reid but had done so as a “non-partisan mayor.” He probably noticed that having endorsed Reid wouldn’t help his chances in the Nevada governor’s GOP primary next year. (Although this article says that he’s also considering running for Governor as an Independent.) Meanwhile, Nevada’s other Senator, John Ensign saw his approval numbers take a huge hit with the allegations about his affair with a staffer: the Las Vegas Review-Journal finds him at 39/37, down from 53/18 last month. Still, he’s the most popular guy in Nevada, compared with Harry Reid‘s 34% approval and Gov. Jim Gibbons’ 10% approval in the same poll.

• CA-Gov: Antonio Villaraigosa will announce later today on CNN whether or not he’s going to run for California governor, which seemed likely even a few months ago but has gotten called into doubt recently. He can’t be encouraged by a recent LA Times poll, which polled only Los Angeles city voters on the Dem primary. Although Villaraigosa maintained a 55% approval as mayor, he only beat ex-Gov. Jerry Brown and SF Mayor Gavin Newsom by 38-32-13 on his home turf, with a plurality opposing his entry into the race.

• IL-Gov: Little-known state Senator Matt Murphy is getting in the Illinois governor’s race. He joins two other state Senators in the field: Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard. Murphy has only been in the Senate since 2006, but may have a geographical advantage against presumptive frontrunner Brady, in that Murphy is from Palatine in the Chicago burbs while Brady is from downstate.

• ME-Gov: Somehow this eluded me (and everyone else) last week, but it’s indicative of how little press the open Governor’s seat in Maine is getting. Steve Rowe, the Democratic former House speaker and Attorney General, has filed his campaign paperwork. The likely Dem frontrunner will have his formal kickoff “at a later date.”

• NJ-Gov: Chris Christie has some splainin’ to do to Congress: he agreed to testify before the House Judiciary subcommittee on Commercial and Administrative Law, regarding who Christie chose to award no-bid federal monitoring contracts to when he was US Attorney. Christie also looks to be waddling toward the center for the general, as last week his team scrubbed the “Shared Values” portion of his website that was up during the primary, in which he talked about opposition to abortion and gay marraige. Meanwhile, the discovery of an extra $625 million or so under the couch cushions in the state’s tax amnesty program may help Jon Corzine’s chances a lot; with that extra money, Dems may be able to restore the popular property tax rebates that were on the chopping block.

• NY-Gov: Rudy Giuliani gave a timeline of sorts for deciding whether or not to run for Governor, saying “it’s something I have to decide sometime this year, but I haven’t really focused on it very much right now.” Also, like clockwork, another Siena poll (pdf) showing David Paterson’s dire straits just came out (although numbers have been stable for several months now): he loses the primary to Andrew Cuomo 69-16 and the general to Giuliani 57-27. Cuomo beats Giuliani 49-40, and has his highest-ever approval ratings at 71%.

• FL-08: Rep. Alan Grayson likes to keep ’em guessing. One of the most outspoken liberals in the House, the freshman rep. plans to appear at the next Orlando-area teabaggers’ event on July 4. Apparently he’s there to tout support for a bill to audit the Federal Reserve, a topic where he and the Paulist wing of the GOPers have common cause.

• FL-13: More insight into the campaign finance shell game that GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan allegedly had going on, that’s been the subject of investigations: a bankrupt registered Democrat explained his $8,800 contribution to Buchanan in that he was reimbursed for the contributions by his partners in a trucking company, one of whom is one of Buchanan’s biggest backers.

• OH-02: David Krikorian, who’s going up against Rep. Jean Schmidt in this dark-red district, has put out an internal poll showing him within striking distance, down 44-39. Those numbers may have a lot to do with the DCCC‘s surprising recent decision to list OH-02 as one of their eight best shots at a pickup.

• Redistricting: The presentations from the NCSL’s first Redistricting Seminar are available online. They include topics like the Census and “How to Draw Maps That Will Stand up in Court.” (D)

Minnesota is going to possibly lose a seat and with a DFL governor, we’ll be able to do some damage.  These districts should pass any compactness laws as nothing is gerrymandered beyond unacceptability.  My 8 seat map is in the works and near done and both of these maps reflect what I think is possible and appropriate for Minnesota, all Dem seats with one GOP dump district.

I did none of this with a computer program or anything like that.  i was fortunate that MN provides all the info I needed to do this with the MnSOS office providing all the vote totals and also precinct maps of every state house seat, which was the main way I broke down the districts by vote and population when I didnt need to break it down to city/township/precinct level.  The state legislature websites has excellent maps with the two I used constantly were a map of the all the state house seats that also showed city boundaries which made it my go to map for figuring out my planned geography.  More importantly though, a precinct map of the entire state showing election results from dark red to dark blue.  I found county population totals for 2007 and when they broke down beyond that point, I wikipediad it which sometimes included 2006 estimates but mainly for 2000 totals and then I used common sense for population movements, figured out the percentage of growth for that county/area, etc to figure out the 2007 population of said city/precinct.  There is certainly some error involved in this but nothing that would alter more than a couple precincts here or there and then my map accounts for current population movement as opposed to 2000, little bit of a trade off there.

Everything is recorded in excel spreadsheets, they look like a hot mess.

map with county lines can be found here: http://s635.photobucket.com/al…

I figured I had three options with Minneapolis/St. Paul. 1. Put each in their own CD and have to expand them, which meant expanding into more Dem friendly suburbs, which in turn would mean I would end up strengthening Paulsen.  2. Put them both into the same CD, making one uber D+35-like district which would then leave behind all Dem burbs currently in the two districts plus a little bit of one of the cities.  I could then gerrymander two suburban seats into two Dem-leaning districts, most likely.  But McCollum lives in a burb just outside of St Paul so while it wouldnt make an Ellison v McCollum, it would mean her district being gerrymandered to be really Dem and then Paulsen would just get beefed up in return as a consequence.  I could put Ellison in a suburban district but well, that’d never work for him.   McCollum could survive it fine probably.  And option 3, which I chose, was to divide up MSP into three districts and pair them with adjacent suburbs, creating 3 solid Dem seats.  This was the more devious and fun way to go.

I will say at first, doing it this way REALLY bugged me but I was being politically minded, I looked at this and thought, that would never happen.  Quite frankly, I think it would have a decent shot after I’ve sat on it.  The map doesn’t look messed up, it puts the cities and suburbs all compactly into three districts and the other districts all make perfect sense.  It’s compact, simple, but really does a lot of damage.  You just have to get past Minneapolis dominating two districts.

CD1,7,8 all stay heavily rural districts with some exurban areas picked up and CD2 is one huge swath of Republican exurbia.

This map would result in a for sure 6/1 delegation as the seat I eliminated was Bachmann’s and Paulsen’s is now a heavy DFL seat.  An open MN-6 would probably make it 5/2 but maybe not.

As for the tables, the first 2008 is new the district’s 2008 total, the second is former districts.  I also did the 2004 totals since many of you asked in other redistrictings what they would be.  And then are the county totals for each one so one would know where to watch for votes and such.  

MN-1 is now more based in the southeast corner and is almost indentical to the 1990’s lines (it just worked out that way), this makes it 1% more for Obama as the southwestern rural counties are the Republican ones while the southeast is heavily DFL.  It now includes some of exurban MSP, but still keeps its rural district title.  Walz lives on the edge of the district and should still be quite safe.

I combined all the exurban Republican counties from Kline and Bachmann’s districts as they are by far the most Republican in the state and a great population base.  Also, the district took in parts of Hennepin county for population and gerrymandering purposes.  The areas it picked up are exurban for the most part and are extremely Republican, the Lake Minnetonka cities (but not Minnetonka) and also Maple Grove had to be included, and these suburbs lean pretty heavily GOP, as well.

Kline now lives in CD1 but the city he lives in, Lakeville, borders CD2.  I would assume he’d opt to run in the new CD2 as he would certainly not beat Walz and the territory of his included in CD1 are his least favorable counties, and nor would he let Bachmann simply claim CD2 as hers.  Bachmann’s district is simply gone and I would assume she’d move to run here, which  means that I may not have eliminated Bachmann, but actually strengthened her, depending if she could win the primary.  Bachmann could dominate in the caucuses and probably get the GOP endorsement but primary voters would probably be more apt to voting for Kline.  This is a consequence we can live with as at least someone got eliminated still and she is a good fundraiser for us.

This district combines Edina, Eden Prarie,, part of Minnetonka, Bloomington, southern Minneapolis and also Eagan in Dakota County.  All of the suburbs are trending Democratic with most of the areas in the district voting for Obama, but also voting for Paulsen, except for Bloomington which went Madia.  Paulsen lives in Eden Prairie and would be in this district, but would certainly get his ass kicked by just about any Dem challenger.  This district is now solid Dem, whatever the political climate.

This district stays pretty much the same except for it adds most of Washington county.  I initially divided MSP up three ways perfectly with some of the St. Paul state house seats going to CD5 but this district then dipped below 60% for Obama.  I wanted to maintain at least 60% in CD4&5 so this district maintains all of it’s Ramsey county territory and largely is a St. Paul+burbs district still.

This district takes in the north half of Minneapolis (where Ellison resides) and includes all the suburbs to the west and then also to the north in Anoka County of Minneapolis, and then also picks up suburbs on the Hennepin/Anoka border and also Blaine.  Everything except Maple Grove and Plymouth are Democratic in Hennepin while the Anoka areas vary with Dem leaning to slight Repub suburbs.  Keith Ellison is really liberal but doesn’t cause very many waves and would still be safe here.

This is the old MN-7 with it having the same base and will have the same congresscritter.  The district had to expand and the only option was into CD1 as CD2 areas are way Republican and the old CD8 is a northern Iron Range district that consistently elect a pretty progressive Dem.  (Oberstar is a lot more liberal than one would think based off the district.)  I managed to only make this district a tick more Republican, which is pretty good considering the areas to expand were all Republican.

This is the old CD8 with its base up north in Duluth and on the Iron Range.  Unlike what many have done, I left it completely intact except by removing Bemidji. I put in St. Cloud and then also included the colleges St. Ben’s and St. John’s which are blue.  It was tricky to figure out where to put St. Cloud since it is +2000 votes for Obama but the counties attached to it are all so Republian.  The district had to pick up counties south for population and I managed to make it a tick less Republican.  Oberstar is safe and so is his successor, House Majority Leader Sertich.  He could be speaker if Kelliher runs for governor, and he’s young so it’ll be in our hands for the next 50 years guaranteed.

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*** Update July 7: Now I have all precinct data, PVI calculations are complete. ***

Pennsylvania is expected to lose a district so it will have 18. My goals are:

– Make districts that look fair, even if they’re not.

– Keep communities together

– Try not to screw over any incumbent Democrats

– Put Democratic territory in Democratic districts

– Anticipate future voting trends

Here is my redistricting plan:



Click on the image for a full size screenshot.

Philadelphia closeup:

1st District (old 1st) D+21

“The Eastern Philadelphia district”

Incumbent: Bob Brady (D)

The first district has been shifted east. It is now 51% white, 21% black, 6% Asian and 20% Hispanic. It gave 73.59% of its vote to Obama, making it D+21. The old 1st is D+35.

2nd District (old 2nd) D+40

“The Western Philadelphia district”

Incumbent: Chaka Fattah (D)

The second district is now 24% white, 67% black, 5% Asian and 3% Hispanic. It gave an incredible 93.03% of its vote to Obama, making it D+40. The old 2nd is D+38. It will be the third most Democratic district in America, behind only NY-15 and NY-16, and tied with Washington DC.

3rd District (old 7th) D+9

“The Delaware County district”

Incumbent: whoever succeeds Joe Sestak in 2010

This district has been made more Democratic. It takes up all of Delaware County, the rest of Philadelphia, and a small amount of Montgomery.

4th District (old 13th) D+6

“The Montgomery district”

Incumbent: Allyson Schwartz (D)

This district is now entirely within Montgomery County.

5th District (old 8th) D+1

“The Bucks district”

Incumbent: Patrick Murphy (D)

By removing its territory from Philadelphia and Montgomery and adding territory from Lehigh and Northampton the district becomes a little less Democratic. It stops short of Allentown and Bethlehem but takes Easton from the Dent district. Patrick Murphy should be safe.

6th District (old 16th) D+1

“The Chester district”

Incumbent: Joe Pitts (R)

The current district takes all of Lancaster County and some of Chester. In this plan it takes all of Chester and some of Lancaster, including the city. Chester is the more Democratic county, so this shift makes it more Democratic. Joe Pitts may be able to win this district but after he retires a Democrat should win it.

7th District (old 6th, sort of) R+5

“The Reading district”

Incumbent: whoever succeeds Jim Gerlach in 2010

My ideal scenario: Jim Gerlach runs for higher office and a Democrat from Berks County wins the open 6th district in 2010. This Democrat becomes popular quickly and easily wins the more Republican district in 2012. Over time Berks trends more Democratic and Lancaster trends more moderate.

My less ideal scenario: A Republican wins it in 2010, or Jim Gerlach stays, so we make it more Republican.

It is made of almost all of Berks, most of Lancaster, and a tiny amount of Montgomery.

8th District (old 15th) D+4

“The Allentown district”

Incumbent: Charles Dent (R)

The district loses territory from its southeastern border to the Murphy district, and gains most of Monroe County. This shift makes it more Democratic.

9th District (old 19th) R+10

“The York district”

Incumbent: Todd Platts (R)

Because of its fast population growth, the district loses some area. It is still strongly Republican.

10th District (old 17th) R+5

“The Harrisburg district”

Incumbent: Tim Holden (D)

This district is still based in Harrisburg. It loses strongly Republican territory in Perry County and gains strongly Republican territory in Northumberland and Montour Counties. Tim Holden keeps getting reelected despite the Republican lean of the district so he should be able to continue. Northumberland and Montour are currently in the Carney district so they are used to having a Democratic Congressman. It is only 0.18% more Republican than before.

11th District (old 11th) D+3

“The Scranton district”

Incumbent: Paul Kanjorski (D) or his successor

The district now includes all of Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties.

12th District (old 10th, and most of 5th) R+8

“The northern district”

Incumbent: Chris Carney (D)

The district takes all of the New York border except Erie County, and it extends south into Centre County. In 2008 Carney was reelected by a comfortable margin and this proposed district is 0.12% more Democratic. I expect northern Pennsylvania will eventually become more Democratic, like Upstate New York. Giving them a Democratic Congressman should speed up the trend. One problem is Glenn Thompson, Republican Congressman from the 5th District, lives in Centre County. He should run in the new 14th.

13th District (old 9th) R+19

“The south-central district”

Incumbent: Bill Shuster (R)

It’s more compact than before, and shifted a little bit east. This is the northern Bible Belt. At R+19 there are only a small handful of districts in America that are more Republican.

14th District (parts of the old 5th, 12th and 9th) R+10

“The Johnstown district”

Incumbent: Glenn Thompson (R) [from Centre County]

I’ve been told this area would elect a Democratic Congressman despite its Republican PVI because it’s historically Democratic. I’ll believe it when I see it. This will be the whitest district in PA at 96.1%.

15th District (parts of the old 3rd and 4th) R+13

“The Butler district”

Incumbent: Tim Murphy (R)

Tim Murphy (R) lives in the 17th and Jason Altmire (D) lives in the 15th. They should trade districts.

16th District (old 14th) D+14

“The Pittsburgh district”

Incumbent: Mike Doyle (D)

The district gets bigger because the Pittsburgh area lost population. I shifted it east so the Altmire district could get some more Democratic towns along the Ohio River.

17th District (parts of the old 12th and 18th) R+3

“The southwest district”

Incumbent: Jason Altmire (D) [assuming Murtha retires, or gets indicted]

This southwestern PA district is compact and Obama wins it. Yes it’s possible.

18th District (old 3rd) R+1

“The Erie district”

Incumbent: Kathy Dahlkemper (D)

Now it’s a proper Democratic Northwest PA district.

So, with the caveat that I don’t really believe that neutral redistricting is possible, I’ve redistricted my own state of Pennsylvania as I think it might appear if the legislature deadlocks and a Federal district court has to appoint a special master to draw the lines. There are 18k “missing” people in this map, which I assume is a software bug in Dave’s app. Anyway, without further ado. . .

Delaware Valley:

Philly:

Eastern PA:

Central PA:

Western PA:

Pittsburgh:

• MO-Sen: In an e-mail to local TV affiliate KY3, former Treasurer Sarah Steelman seems to be walking back her comments to the Hill yesterday, not wanting to appear to shut the door on a GOP primary bid against Rep. Roy Blunt. She says she’s still “very seriously considering” it.

• PA-Sen: Here’s an interesting development: a state legislator in Pennsylvania has introduced a bill to switch Pennyslvania from closed to open primaries. This seems like a nakedly pro-Specter bill: it would have helped him survive his GOP primary against Pat Toomey, and now it would have the opposite effect, helping him survive a Democratic primary against Joe Sestak by opening the door to independents and moderate Republicans.

• AK-AL: Unless the indictment fairy has a present for him soon, Rep. Don Young looks to have a much easier go of it in 2010 than last cycle. Not only is his Dem challenger ex-state House minority leader Ethan Berkowitz likely to run for governor instead, but now it sounds like his primary opponents, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell and ex-state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, aren’t going to run again either. Unlike last time, Parnell would need to give up his LG job to run, and he may instead be running for Governor if Sarah Palin declines to run again. Businessman Andrew Halcro, who ran for Governor as an independent in 2006, also sounds likely to run for Governor rather than challenge Young. State Senator Hollis French, who sounded like a likely Governor candidate for the Dems until Berkowitz showed up, may be the Dems’ best bet.

• AL-07: The field to replace Artur Davis got bigger, as Jefferson Co. Councilor Shelia Smoot officially launched her campaign. She joins lawyer Terri Sewell, state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr., and former Selma mayor James Perkins in the primary (which is the only real race in this D+18 district).

• CA-11: Contra Costa County Sheriff Warren Rupf turned down the chance to run as a Republican in the upcoming CA-10 special election, but that seemed to ignite his interest, as now he’s considering running in 2010 in next-door CA-11 against sophomore Rep. Jerry McNerney, at R+1 a more plausible race than the D+11 CA-10.

• FL-08: Republican state Representative Steve Precourt is considering making the race against Rep. Alan Grayson in this R+2 Orlando-area seat. His strongest words seemed to be reserved for likely primary opponent Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, who Precourt doesn’t see as a “fresh face” or viable, although Precourt said he’d stand down if former state Sen. Daniel Webster got in.

• ID-01: The Republican field in ID-01 is filling up, as state House majority leader Ken Roberts announced he’s in. He’ll have to get past veteran and McCain ally Vaughn Ward before facing off against Rep. Walt Minnick, though. Ex-Rep. Bill Sali occasionally makes threatening noises about a rematch, but he hasn’t said anything definite.

• NH-02: Former state Rep. Bob Giuda (not to be confused with Frank Guinta, running in NH-01) is the first GOPer to launch an exploratory committee in the race to fill Rep. Paul Hodes’ open seat. He may still be joined by the 2008 candidate, Jennifer Horn, and, more remotely, a return by ex-Rep. Charlie Bass.

• NY-23: Douglas Hoffman, the head of a local accounting firm, has thrown his hat into the GOP nomination contest for the special election to replace Rep. John McHugh. Republicans also announced their schedule for picking a nominee, involving four regional meetings around the districts where candidates would speak to the Republican county committee members over a two- to four-week period once there’s an official vacancy.

• PA-03: Freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, representing the swingy R+3 district based in Erie (won by John McCain by 62 votes), has managed to secure a hot ticket in view of its self-imposed membership cap: she joined the Blue Dog Coalition.

• Redistricting: A petition drive is underway in Florida to get an initiative on the ballot for 2010 that, while not creating an independent redistricting campaign, would at least place some non-partisan limitations on the creation of House and legislative districts. Most of the money behind the petition drive is coming from Democrats, but two prominent Democrats aren’t on board with the drive: Reps. Alcee Hastings and Corrine Brown, both of whom stand to inherit more difficult districts if they’re made less convoluted.

In a “now for something completely different” moment, I decided to redistrict a state in such away where all districts would be maximally competitive.  Indiana is ideal for this since it was extremely close in the last election and does not have large enough minority populations to invoke the VRA.

Without further ado:

I used the town totals from the back of this data set to split Lake and LaPorte counties. For the other split counties, notably Marion and Hamilton, I just came up with reasonable numbers for what I wanted the split to be, figuring it would be relatively easy to adjust the lines to make it a reality.

Estimates of margins of victory and political analysis

District 1 (Blue):  Obama by 3500.  Hammond and Terre Haute are balanced against some conservative Indianapolis suburbs. Open seat.

District 2 (Green): Obama by 4900. Loses Michigan City and gain some Conservative territory to the East, but retains its South Bend base assuring Donnelly’s relatively easy reelection.

District 3 (Purple): McCain by 700, the only one he wins. This Fort Wayne based district now gains some Democratic turf in Muncie and Anderson. Souder had challenging races in his old district, so would presumably draw even stronger challenges here.

District 4 (Red): Obama by 5800. Gary and Lake County weigh against a broad swath of conservative turf, setting up a battle royale of Visclosky verses Buyer.  Theoretically the most Democratic district, but the estimates are a bit sketchy for some of the splits.

District 5 (Gold): Obama 1400. Some Democratic turf near the lake and Tippecanoe County weigh against the conservative interior, most notably deep red Kosciuskco.  Open seat.

District 6 (Turquoise): Obama by 3300. Some of the more Democratic parts of Marion weigh against Republican rural areas and suburbs.  Carson will need to convince enough of those folks that it’s okay to send a Muslim to congress that Indianapolis can carry the day.

District 7 (Gray): Obama by 4200.  A good urban suburban mix.  Burton will need to convince those urban voters that his golf habit won’t prevent him from representing them.

District 8 (Lavender): Obama by 3400.  This district is slight more Democratic than the old Eighth, since it picks up Monroe county. Blue Dog Ellsworth should have no trouble.

District 9 (Cyan): Obama by 2600.  I would think that moderate Democrat Hill would have the advantage over the ultra conservative Pence, who may prefer to run in the Sixth, but Hill has never won by particularly large margins, so who knows.