Swing State Project

This is the third part of a series of posts analyzing the swing state  Colorado. It will focus on the swing areas in Colorado – the parts that will vote for both Democrats and Republicans. The fourth part can be found here.

Swing Colorado

The swing areas of Colorado lie on the edges of the Democratic base in Colorado, which forms a rough “C” shape (more on this in the next post). They can be mapped as below:

More below.

This map incorporates five presidential elections, from 1992 to 2008. Republicans won the state three times; Democrats twice. Of the swing counties pictured here, President Bill Clinton did better in the rural swing areas, mostly in southern Colorado. President Barack Obama, on the other hand, had his strength in several highly populated, suburban swing counties.

Swing Colorado is, like the Republican base, divided into two quite different domains. The first domain is composed by the rural, “Clinton” counties. This region has much in common with the Republican parts of rural Colorado; it is generally poorer and extremely thinly populated.

The difference lies with two things: Hispanics and ski resorts. Areas of rural Colorado with high numbers of Hispanics and ski resorts vote solidly Democratic; areas with low numbers vote solidly Republican. Swing counties generally have enough Hispanics or ski resorts to be competitive for Democrats, but not enough to automatically vote Democratic.

Interestingly, the rural swing counties with ski resorts have become more Democratic over the years, while the rural swing counties with Hispanics have become less so. Mr. Obama generally did worse in rural Hispanic Colorado than Mr. Clinton. Whether because the Hispanic population is locally in decline in this thinly populated area, or because Hispanics are voting more Republican, is uncertain.

The second part of swing Colorado consists of a set of three suburban counties  surrounding the Denver metropolis. These counties used to vote solidly Republican, which was why Colorado was Republican for so long. Here is how they voted in the 2000 presidential election:

The counties – Arapahoe County, Jefferson County, and Larimar County – are pictured by the three large red circles around Denver and Boulder. As is apparent, their importance is of a magnitude above that of the rural swing counties. Indeed, in 2008 the three counties composed 30.8% of the votes cast in Colorado. Jefferson County had more votes cast than any other county in the entire state.

Winning these suburbs, therefore, is naturally important. Until recently they generally leaned Republican. As swing areas, Republicans usually didn’t win them by landslides; they generally had a ceiling of around 65% of the vote. But they won them, and therefore they won Colorado.

It is the shift in places like these that is responsible for recent Democratic gains in Colorado. Here is how swing Colorado voted in 2008:

Mr. Obama won Arapahoe County, Jefferson County, and Larimer County by 12.91%, 8.91%, and 9.73% respectively. Combined, he came out with a 77,067 vote margin out of swing Colorado. This was enough to erase the Senator John McCain’s margins in his two strongest counties – El Paso (Colorado Springs) and Douglas Counties. Mr. Obama also did this out of historically Republican territory.

Demographically, the three counties above share certain similarities. For suburbs, they are actually not that rich; median household income is only slightly above the national average (Jefferson County is richest). The counties are also fairly homogeneous; approximately four out of five residents in Jefferson and Larimer County are white and non-Hispanic. Arapahoe County, on the other hand, is more diverse; non-Hispanic whites compose about 65% of the population (a mirror of the country, in fact). Unsurprisingly, Mr. Obama did best in Arapahoe County.

To be fair, Mr. Obama’s performance in Colorado’s formerly Republican-leaning suburbs probably constitutes something of a ceiling for Democrats. Mr. Obama did extremely well in exurbs like these throughout the nation, in both the primaries and the general election. The housing crisis did not hurt things, either. A different Democrat might rely less on these suburbs.

Nevertheless, the very fact that a Democrat can now win places like Larimer County is something of an achievement for the party. Indeed, almost all of swing Colorado constitutes formerly Republican-leaning territory that Democrats have made competitive over the past two decades. Democrats have also carved out a new and many-sided base in Colorado during this time period. The next post will examine the complex elements that make up Colorado’s Democratic base. will examine the complex elements that make up Colorado’s Democratic base.

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

OK, OK, here’s what I know you’ve been waiting for. I teased some of these last month, but now you can see my full Senate and Assembly reports after the flip.

I only listed competitive races below, as the rest probably won’t see too much actions. Click here for Nevada Legislative Districts, here for the latest voter registration statistics from the Nevada Secretary of State, here for a list of the candidates in Washoe County, and here for a list of candidates in Clark County.

Key:

County District Number: Which county the district is based in

(Area: Neighborhood): self explanatory

Incumbent: who’s in office now (if someone’s retiring, I list it as “Open Seat”)

atdleft’s Impartial Rating: how I rank this race, based on voter registration statistics, quality of the candidates, who won where when, and who’s organizing where right now

And I rank the races from highest to lowest on likelihood of flipping.

Senate:

Overall Rating: Likely Democratic Retention

Republicans have been hoping to retake the Legislature, but the numbers just don’t agree with them in either house. The Senate seems to be the more vulnerable chamber for Democrats, but they’ve worked hard to recruit solid candidates and put together a stellar field operation. While there were plenty of jitters at first over how major weakness at the top of the ticket could hurt, it now looks like the state party’s field efforts for Harry Reid and Dina Titus may turn out to help a number of candidates down the ballot. And Republicans’ lack of field campaigning and abundance of controversial candidates only add to their woes.

Clark District 8 (Las Vegas: Summerlin)

Incumbent: Barbara Cegavske (R)

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Tossup/Tilts Republican

Cegavske must be thanking her lucky stars that she’s running this year instead of 2008. Next door in District 6, long time GOP stalwart Bob Beers famously lost to political neophyte/local business owner Alison Copening over his polarizing hard-core conservatism and not realizing Obama’s campaign drove Nevada Democrats into overdrive. But even though 2010 may not be as scary of a cycle for Republicans this year, Cegavske still must deal with her own polarizing hard-core conservatism in a district where Democrats have a slight 0.9% registration edge. And Democrats got an all star recruit of a candidate with legal maven Tammy Peterson. And with Harry Reid and Dina Titus both counting on the party to pump up Democratic turnout for them, th GOP can’t count on an “enthusiasm gap” to save Cegavske (but maybe a “voting gap” if some Dems undervote).

Clark District 9 (Las Vegas: Summerlin/Mountain’s Edge/Southern Highlands/Primm)

Open (R) Seat

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Tossup/Tilts Democratic

This is probably the Democrats’ best chance of a Senate pickup this year. Incumbent moderate Republican Dennis Nolan was “tea partied” out by a primary challenge by super neophyte 27 year old no-name secretary “office manager” and teabagger darling Elizabeth Halseth. So all of a sudden, what had been a likely GOP hold is now fully in play and a young newcomer by the name of Benny Yerushalmi all of a sudden has a great chance at joining “The Gang of 63”. This will definitely be a hard fought race until the very end, but Benny does have the advantage of a 2.4% Dem registration edge and a strong Dem field operation.

Clark District 12 (Mesquite/Henderson/Boulder City/Laughlin)

Open (R) Seat

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Leans Republican

This is without a doubt the most stretched district, bordering Arizona all the way from Mesquite to Laughlin! And there are plenty of rural areas here that strongly favor Republicans, so Assembly Member Joe “Doc” Hardy (R-Boulder City) has a natural advantage here. However this district also contains many Vegas suburbs, from Henderson’s fringes to North Las Vegas’ Aliante master planned community, so all in all the GOP only has a slight 1.2% registration edge here AND Obama carried this district in 2008. Plus, Democrats recruited a top-notch legal eagle Aaron Ford to run here. Still, Ford has to deal with Hardy’s entrenched status in Boulder City and the rurals’ seething hatred of all things Reid and Titus. But if the Dem Machine can whip out enough Reid & Titus voters in this district to keep voting down the ballot, Ford may have a chance.

Clark District 5 (Henderson/Las Vegas: Green Valley, MacDonald Ranch, Old Henderson, Silverado Ranch)

Incumbent: Joyce Woodhouse (D)

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Leans Democratic

This is the one Senate race where Democrats have to play defense. The Republicans are pouring money into attacking Woodhouse as a “loony liberal” in this closely divided suburban district (Dems have about a 1.3% registration advantage) and promoting slick lawyer Michael Roberson. One would think Joyce would be a goner in this type of environment, but she has a few trump cards to play here. Dems have a far better field operation than the GOP, Joyce has a good reputation as a “grassroots person” and a long time teacher, and Roberson has what may be the ugliest skeleton to hide in the closet this campaign cycle (he’s worked on kicking homeowners out of foreclosed homes). This won’t be easy, but Woodhouse most certainly has a path to victory here.

Washoe District 2 (Sparks/Pyramid Lake)

Open (R) Seat

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Leans Republican

Again, the GOP lucked out with this seat. If perennial religious right bomb thrower Maurice Washington had faced reelection in 2008, he would have likely lost in this closely divided district that spans from the Reno suburbs to the California and Oregon borders. (Republicans only have a 2.2% registration edge here.) But because Washington is termed out and the seat is open this year, they may get a reprieve. Still, they may not be completely out of the woods yet. Democrats recruited yet another star candidate in nonprofit consultant Allison Edwards, but GOP Assembly Member Don Gustavson (R-Sparks) probably still has the advantage here.

Assembly:

Overall Rating: Safe Democratic Retention

Let’s be real. Republicans need to pick up eight seats to take control of the Assembly. That just isn’t happening. There just aren’t enough seats in play for them, and there are even a handful of seats where they have to play defense. The best they can hope for is denying Democrats a 2/3 supermajority, but not even that is a given for them.

Washoe District 40 (Carson City/Rural Washoe)

Open (D) Seat

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Tossup/Tilts Republican

Ironically enough, the race that could really tip the scale in Carson City happens to be IN Carson City! But unfortunately for Democrats, this is a seat that could cost them the 2/3 supermajority they just reached in The Assembly. Incumbent Bonnie Parnell announced late last year that she would not seek another term, so Democrats scrambled to figure out how to possibly hold this seat that usually isn’t too Dem friendly. (The GOP has a somewhat hefty 8.5% registration edge here.) Fortunately, Democrats found a top-notch candidate in Carson City Supervisor Robin Williamson. Unfortunately, the GOP tapped into the same pool in recruiting fellow Carson City Supervisor Pete Livermore to run. This could be a real barn burner of a race, with Livermore benefitting from the natural Republican lean of this district. However, don’t forget that this district also has a high concentration of state workers, so union and environmentalist mobilization for Williamson may yet keep this seat in Dem hands.

Clark District 13 (Las Vegas: Centennial Hills, Summerlin)

Open (R) Seat

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Tossup/Tilts Democratic

In 2008, incumbent Republican Chad Christensen came shockingly close to losing this long GOP held seat to Democrat Andrew Martin, a candidate who worked quite hard but didn’t get too much party support. However in 2010, Democrats aren’t making the same mistake. They’re all in for Building Trades (union) trainer Lou DeSalvio. Still, Republicans aren’t giving this up without a fight, and they’ve recruited UNLV Political Science Professor Scott Hammond to be their fighter. This should be another hard fought race, but Democrats do have the advantage of a slight 1.6% registration edge and a mobilized turnout operation (for Harry Reid and Dina Titus that may also help lift DeSalvio to victory).

Clark District 21 (Henderson: Green Valley, MacDonald Ranch)

Incumbent: Ellen Spiegel (D)

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Leans Democratic

In 2008, everyone was shocked when Republicans lost this long-time GOP stronghold to web-based small business owner Ellen Spiegel. Now NO ONE has held this seat for more than one term (Republicans kept primary-ing each other!), but funny enough a Democrat is now looking to break “The One Term Wonder Curse” of AD 21. Now usually in a year like this Spiegel would be hopeless, but she’s built a surprisingly good field operation and earned the endorsements of both the Las Vegas AND Henderson Chambers of Commerce, which usually do NOT endorse Democrats. And unfortunately for the GOP, this year’s primary was quite tumultuous and Mark Sherwood, who emerged victorious in the primary, has alienated both moderates with his religious right fervor and some local “Tea Party” groups by not signing their anti-tax pledge. If it weren’t for the Republicans’ 2.4% registration edge in this district, they’d have to completely write off this seat. But as it is, they have a real uphill battle to reclaim it.

Clark District 23 (Henderson: Old Henderson)

Incumbent: Melissa Woodbury (R)

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Leans Republican

In some ways, AD 23 is AD 21 in reverse. This was the seat of Former Assembly Speaker Richard Perkins (D). Democrats simply didn’t expect to lose this seat in 2008, but lose it they did… And to local educator Melissa Woodbury, daughter of legendary Clark County Supervisor Bruce Woodbury (R). It was probably the Dems’ biggest mistake of 2008, and it looks like they may be repeating it by backing Monica Lejia Bean, a candidate who’s hardly visible at all. Woodbury looks to have lucked out, but she’s not out of the woods yet… Not when there’s an 8.8% Dem registration edge AND major Democratic and union GOTV operations working against her. But if she could get some Obama ticket-splitters in 2008, she may very well get enough Reid/Titus ticket-splitters in 2010 to keep her in office.

Clark District 29 (Henderson: Green Valley, Whitney Ranch)

Incumbent: April Mastroluca (D)

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Leans Democratic

In 2008, the GOP finally lost this seat, which has been trending away from them for some time. And while Freshman Dem April Mastroluca at times doesn’t seem to be the strongest campaigner, she most certainly benefits from a very strong Democratic field operation, plenty of union support, and a comfy 5.3% Dem registration edge. Openly gay Republican challenger Dan Hill flew under the radar in the primary, but he can’t expect to keep doing so in the general. (I have a feeling Sharron Angle won’t be doing him any favors any time soon…)

Clark District 22 (Henderson/Las Vegas: Black Mountain, MacDonald Ranch, Anthem, Southern Highlands, Mountain’s Edge)

Incumbent: Lynn Stewart (R)

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Leans Republican

Lynn Stewart really lucked out in 2008. No Democrat emerged to challenge him, so he coasted to reelection while other GOP incumbents fell. And this year, he looks to have lucked out again. Local “Tea Party” groups didn’t find him “conservative enough”, so they waged a primary coup against him… But problem was, so many candidates filed against Stewart that he was able to win the GOP Primary with 47%. But this time, several Democrats did file and soon-to-open Cosmopolitan Casino accountant Kevinn Donovan emerged out of the primary. Still, even with the state Democratic Party organizing hard for the top of the ticket here, Donovan nonetheless has a major uphill battle against Stewart.

Washoe District 30 (Reno/Sparks)

Incumbent: Debbie Smith (D)

atdleft’s Impartial Ranking: Likely Democratic

Debbie Smith has certainly had her ups and downs. A few years back, she lost her race here… But she came back and she had an easy ride in 2008 with “The Obama Wave”. But this time around, Republicans are targeting her yet again, and even Sharron Angle has personally endorsed her opponent, Kathy Martin. However the Reno/Sparks Chamber of Commerce, which usually doesn’t endorse Democrats, endorsed Smith, mainly because she stands to Chair the nearly omnipotent Appropriations Committee and provide plenty more “juice” for Northern Nevada if she wins reelection. And with a whopping 16.3% Democratic registration advantage here, Smith may have all that she needs to weather the storm this time.

(Mostly updated for now but im heading to bed and will update the rest tomorrow, leave comments! 🙂

Senate:

Barbara Boxer faces off against Carly Fiorina, former Hewlett-Packard CEO. Already Boxer pulls out the Karl Rove playbook by using Fiorina’s business experience against her. Boxer is a very tough, hard and negative campaigner (perhaps a certain Massachusetts candidate should contact her..) and that hurts Fiorina. I think Boxer will win, more than Brown will against Whitman which is surprising since Boxer is very passionately liberal and Brown is not, but Fiorina is way too conservative for this state. Part of me wants to peg this at Likely D, but i’ll go with reality this time.

Current Status: Leans Democratic

Governor:

This race is HUGE. Not because Meg Whitman made it so with her yacht-loads of $$$, but because of the implications (Redistricting, passing a budget on time, etc) that come with it. Brown is very much a populist and isn’t afraid to ruffle feathers, and comes off as very human and likable. Can’t say the same about Whitman. Even if Housekeeper-gate (love that phrase!) goes away in the voters mind, Brown has an edge due to a large Democratic voter registration, more energized base than in other parts of the country and the overall D lean of this state. Whitman will lose, but by how much remains a battle of inches.

Current Status: Leans Democratic



Lieutenant Governor:

Not so huge as the Gov race, but will tell us if we have an all Dem statewide sweep or will it end here. Appointed LG Abel Maldonaldo faces off against San Fran Mayor Gavin Newsom. Honestly, i don’t like either. Maldo, for instance pulled an eMeg and voted against the original AB 32, the landmark climate change bill but now says Prop 23 is wrong. Newsom comes across as arrogant and at first laughed at the prospect of running for this job, and known infamously for his “Whether you like it or not (gay marriage)” comment. I think this race will end up like the last LG race, between now Congressman Garamendi and now Congressman McClintock, by single digits. I expect Newsom to win narrowly, with the Bay Area dragging him across the finish line.

Current Status: Tossup

Attorney General:

This race is really tough for me (and judging by the California posters here on SSP, hard for them as well).  Between L.A DA Steve Cooley and San Fran DA Kamala Harris, there’s a stark contrast between them. Cooley supports the death penalty and Harris as D.A opposed using it against a cop-killer, that’s a big no-no if your going to be running for Attorney General. Alot of San Fran dems i’ve heard will vote for Cooley and that is really bad news. I think this race will be fought till the last vote is counted, stay up all night folks: this one is going down to the wire. I can’t even say who will be dragged across the finish line for now.

Current Status: Tossup

Secretary of State:

Debra Bowen faces off against a dude who hasn’t voted in forever (seeing shades of Whitman anyone?), named Damon Dunn. Is this even worth mentioning?

Current Status: Safe Democratic

Insurance Commissioner:

State Assemblymembers Dave Jones, the Democrat from Sacramento and Mike Villines of Clovis (Fresno County) face off. Villines is the former GOP leader in the Assembly who got the Mike Castle treatment after voting for the budget which contains some taxes. I think Jones is clearly favored, but Villines’ strength in the Central Valley will help narrow the margin quite a bit. Incumbent Steve Poizner ran against eMeg and got whopped badly so he’s not in this year.

Current Status: Likely Democratic

Controller:

Incumbent John Chiang faces off against 06′ opponent State Sen. Tony Strickland of Ventura County.

Current Status: Safe Democratic

Treasurer:

Incumbent Bill Lockyer faces off against OC State Sen. Mimi Walters.

Current Status: Safe Democratic

Superintendent of Public Instruction:

Officially it’s a non-partisan post. But the two opponents are State Assemblyman Tom Torlakson, the teacher’s union favorite against retired school Superintendent Larry Aceves, who’s in the middle of the war between charter and public schools. He surprised everyone by making second place, when State Sen Gloria Romero was considered the favorite and a charter school proponent. I like Aceves as he is a former Superintendent, but i think ultimately the voters will side with Torlakson for whatever reason.

Current Status: Leans Torlakson

The Propositions:

Prop 19 — Legalize and tax cannabis. Very contentious issue that has split the State Dem party into two factions both of whom support the measure but have differencing views on how to show support. I say it passes by a small margin.

Prop 20 — Expanding the Current citizens redistricting panel to include U.S House races as well. I oppose this, as we need more Democrats in California to make up for the bazillion seats we lose in November, but with an angry electorate you never know the result. I say it passes by a razor thin margin, much like Prop 13 in 2008.

Prop 21 — Funding State parks. Even though there really isnt an organized org against this, a ton of prominent newspapers have came out against it, like the Los Angeles Times which is very Dem-leaning in their endorsements. I fear a lot of people will buy the “oh noez its teh taxes!!1” B.S, but i still believe it passes by a good sized margin.

Prop 22 — Preventing state gov. from taking local funds from the local governments. Dunno about this one, but i think it passes by anywhere from 6-10 points.

Prop 23 — This must go down big. A stupid ploy by the oil companies/Koch bros./climate change deniers to suspend AB32 until the unemployment reaches 5.5%, a really impossible feat. I say it FAILS by 6-8%.

Prop 24 — Another MUST pass. This will repeal corporate tax breaks that the legislature passed during last year’s budget mayhem. I say it passes (even though i have lost faith in this system) by a 10 point margin.

Prop 25 —  Majority vote to pass a fees or taxes. This is I say it passes by a 5-6 point margin.

Prop 26 — Takes a supermajority to raise fees/taxes. NO. We’ve seen this gridlock happen to the budget, why do we need more? It fails by a 4-5 point margin.

Prop 27 — This one is easy. Why give the legislature control of their own districts’ shape? The arguments for this Prop are extremely pathetic, and voters will see through them. I say it fails by at least 5 points or more.

Interesting Races to Note:

CA-03/AD-05:

I put these two races in the same place because they are very similar in shape and very competitive. Democrat Ami Bera is facing off against Dan Lungren in the third district, while Democrat Richard Pan faces off against “Businessman” Andy Pugno. Bera is making this race more competitive than it should for one reason: $$$. Bera has constantly out-raised the GOP incumbent and national Dems quickly got on board with the campaign. But will it be enough for him in a GOP year?

Meanwhile over in AD-05, Richard Pan can take solace over the fact that registration has dipped amongst the GOP, and Andy Pugno is no “Businessman”, more like the lawyer for Prop 8, which Pan is using against him. Pugno has outraised Pan by a small amount, and the good news for us is this is an open seat, which makes it more likely to take. This poll from the Pan campaign shows it to be a tossup but the Pugno campaign released(no actual direct link to the pollster) their poll showing Pugno ahead by 18 points, with the third party candidate netting 10%.

Current AD-05 Status: Tossup

Current CA-03 Status: Tossup

AD-10:

Here’s a race that should be on everyone’s radar. Incumbent Alyson Huber (D) faces off against her 08′ opponent Jack Sieglock. This district has 40% Democrats, 39% Republicans and 16.85% Decline to State. Obama narrowly won here, and Huber did by a razor thin 474 votes. Will the Central Valley see Huber lose? Or will her incumbency play a positive factor? On election night, if Huber loses by a lot, the Central Valley is going to be a bloodbath. Includes a part of Jerry McNerney’s CA-11 (Lodi and part of Stockton).

Current Status: Tossup

AD-15:

Includes most of Jerry McNerney’s district, and another top race in a state with very few competitive races. Incumbent Joan Buchanan also faces her 08′ opponent, San Ramon Mayor Abram Wilson. Buchanan ran for Congress last year but lost to John Garamendi, so she’s back here for re-election. 40.65% are Democrats, 36.65% are Republicans and about 20% are Decline to State, giving Buchanan a bit more comfort than her neighbor in the north has. If Buchanan loses, then McNerney will also likely fall as this district mostly has the same communities and both face top-tier opponents. I think Buchanan wins, as her East Bay district is trending more Democratic and the coat-tails provided by all three Bay Area candidates should help her.

Current Status: Leans Democratic

CA-11:

Here’s the most competitive race in California, in my opinion. Jerry McNerney is facing a tough challenge from Attorney David Harmer, who ran for congress in a neighboring district last year and got a respectable 45%. McNerney is going to feel the pain of running in 2010, as his last two re-elections were all in very Democratic years. Harmer has raised a ton, but McNerney is also catching up. McNerney touts his support for Veterans, clean energy and even the Stimulus. I expect this race to be close, but this one is definitely on my “bellwether” list.

Current Status: Tossup

AD-30:

Here’s a race where we’ll know for sure how politically bad it is in the Central Valley. Incumbent Danny Gilmore (R) is leaving after only one term, and the race is between Democrat Fran Florez, a fixture in Kern County politics versus David Valadao, a local farmer. This district has gotten an ugly reputation for dirty politics, as Florez ran here in 2008 but lost to Gilmore and some say he was helped by the endorsement of former AD-30 Assemblywoman Nicole Parra (D, now an Independent). There’s been a long feud against the Parra and Florez families, and Florez had to face Pete Parra, Nicole’s father, in the primary but easily won. Valadao’s website touts support from both Gilmore and Parra, most likely as a result of the two families feud. Even though Democrats make up 46% of the district, many are conservative and the issue of water will be huge.

Current Status: Tossup

This is the second in what will be hopefully be a weekly segment, wherein I attempt to read the tea leaves of the independent expenditures made by the NRCC and the DCCC.  The battle lines have become much clearer this week, with both parties significantly expanding their targeted seats.  As a result, I have been able to come to more resolute opinions about what the behaviors of the party committees mean.  My opinions are probably ham handed and wrong, but I feel more resolute about them.  Without further ado:

Battlegrounds – Both parties engaged (36)

AL-02 – Dueling internals.  Still think Bright is slightly ahead.

AR-01 – Confident that Causey has made a race of this.  He may even be ahead now.

AZ-01 – Cook moved this to Lean R.  Republican polls show modest Gosar leads.

AZ-05 – Dueling internals, all very close.  Should be one of the closer races.

CA-11 – Very little reliable polling here.  Harmer is a good candidate.  Sleeper race.

CO-03 – Salazar destroyed Tipton just a few cycles ago.  Good chance he will win again.

FL-02 – Boyd awfully quiet in spite of two Southerland internals with double digit leads.

GA-08 – Dueling internals with big margins.  Somebody’s way off.  I think Marshall is ahead.

IL-14 – Unrebutted Republican polling suggests to me that Hultgren leads.

IL-17 – A good campaign should win this one for Hare.  A lot of unmotivated Dems here.

IN-02 – Polls reassuring for Donnelly.  Walorski does not seem like the best candidate.

IN-09 – Slightly dusty Republican poll showed a dead heat.  Seems like a true toss-up.

KY-06 – Race clearly tightening but Chandler seems to be ahead.

MA-10 – Don’t know how Perry survives the strip search scandal with the general electorate.

MD-01 – Kratovil hanging in there.  Could be the surprise of election night.

MI-01 – Dems investing a lot of money here.  They must see something worth pursuing.  

MI-07 – Schauer seems to be coming back on Walberg.

MO-04 – Skelton is in for the fight of his life here.

MS-01 – Polling suggests that Nunnellee is modestly ahead.

NH-02 – Public polling shows a surprisingly close race here.  Bass should win though.

NM-02 – Every poll of this race has been tight.  Teague is a strong candidate.

NV-03 – Mason-Dixon has been showing modest Titus leads.

NY-20 – Murphy seems to have a clear but surmountable lead here.

NY-24 – Similar to NY-20.  Clear but surmountable lead for Arcuri.

OH-16 – Boccieri seems to be coming back here.  Trajectory like MI-07.

OH-18 – Gibbs must be clawing his way into it for Dems to invest here.

OR-05 – Republican poll shows a toss-up race.  I think Schrader is slightly ahead.

PA-03 – Dahlkemper is in big trouble.  Would greatly surprise me if she won.

PA-11 – Surprised the Dems are spending anything here.  Kanjorski seems to be behind.

SC-05 – This is a very serious challenge for the veteran Spratt.  He could definitely lose.

VA-02 – Nye seems to be a little behind.

VA-05 – Glad the Dems are playing here, but Periello is behind.

WA-03 – Interesting news that Herrera is barely lifting a finger.  Heck seems to be closing a little.

WI-07 – Duffy seems to be ahead here.

WI-08 – Atrocious polling for Kagen.  This seems uphill for him.

WV-01 – No polling for a while.  Oliviero is the right kind of Dem to win here.

The Goners – Races where Dems are running behind and neither party committee is engaging (6)

AR-02 – After November 2, Elliott will not have to worry about whether to vote for Pelosi.

KS-03 – No polling, but Yoder must be in control.

LA-03 – Sangisetty will not have to sweat that Pelosi vote either.

NY-29 – Thanks Eric Massa.  Love ya!  Tickle, tickle…

OH-01 – Consistent, double digit leads for Chabot.

TN-06 – Carter will not have to sweat that Pelosi vote either.

The Triage List – Races where Dems are running behind, the NRCC is spending, and the DCCC is not (11)

CO-04 – Markey behind or tied in every poll.

FL-08 – Grayson may have done himself in with “Taliban Dan” ad.

FL-24 – Kosmas way down in several polls, statistically tied in her own.

IL-11 – Every poll shows a big lead for Kinzinger.

IN-08 – Big lead for Bucshon in internal poll.

ND-AL – Pomeroy holding his own on huge warchest, but seems to be slightly behind.

NH-01 – Shea-Porter down big in public polls, but Guinta is a poor candidate.

PA-07 – Could be a triage candidate, but the last public poll was close.

PA-08 – Murphy down double digits in last public poll.  Seems like DCCC would spend here.

TN-08 – Republican polls show solid Fincher lead.

TX-17 – Edwards down in his own internals.

Ambitious Republican Targets – Races where Dems are running ahead, NRCC is spending, and DCCC is not (7)

MN-01 – Recent addition to NRCC target list.  Must be tightening.

NC-07 – This one is definitely tightening, but DCCC has not stepped in yet.

NJ-03 – Dems may be milking Adler cash advantage before getting in.

NM-01 – Heinrich seems to be ahead, but NRCC has recently engaged.

OH-06 – Like MN-01, another recent addition to the target list.  Probably tightening.

PA-10 – Carney seems to be slightly ahead against damaged Marino.

SD-AL – Same shit, different district.

VA-09 – Boucher seems relatively safe, but NRCC keeps getting after him.

Emerging Democratic Firewall – Races where Dems are running ahead, DCCC is spending, and NRCC is not (7)

GA-02 – Self-inflicted wounds and poor fundraising force DCCC to spend here.

IA-03 – Zaun seems to be damaged, but Dems clearly don’t feel out of the woods.

NC-08 – Kissell is an awful fundraiser, but I suspect he is ahead.

OH-13 – May be able to stop worrying about this one given Ganley’s S&M scandal.

PA-12 – NRCC understandably reluctant to invest in Tim Burns again.

TX-23 – Surprised NRCC has not made a run at this.  Rodriguez may be ahead.

VA-11 – Connolly did not beat Fimian THAT overwhelmingly in 2008.

Confident Republicans – Races where Dems are running behind, DCCC is spending, and NRCC is not (2)

NY-23 – Doheny poll showed a big lead, but I would expect the NRCC to spend due to Owens $$$ advantage.

OH-15 – Stivers probably does not need the help.

No News is Good News – Pundit-declared, endangered Dem seats where neither party committee has made I.E.’s (16)

AZ-08 – NRCC has been pretty ambitious but has not gone after Giffords.

CA-47 – Lack of NRCC investment leads me to believe Sanchez is ahead.

CO-07 – No attention for Perlmutter from the NRCC.

CT-04 – Given the lack of NRCC investment, I suspect Himes is up more than 2.

CT-05 – I believe Murphy’s internal, not that weird Merriman poll.

FL-22 – Huge candidate money on both sides.  Klein is endangered.

IA-02 – No help for Miller-Meeks yet from the NRCC.

ID-01 – Consistent double digit leads for Minnick.

KY-03 – Yarmuth seems to be comfortably ahead.

MI-09 – No NRCC investment in spite of Rossman Group poll showing Peters trailing.

NY-01 – No polling here for a while, but lack of NRCC investment is comforting.

NY-13 – McMahon and Grimm internals show comfortable McMahon leads.

NY-19 – Neither party is spending, yet two public polls show a tight race.  Strange.

PA-04 – Dusty DCCC poll showed Altmire very comfortably ahead.

TN-04 – Davis up double digits in his internal.  Lack of NRCC involvement comforting.

WA-02 – No NRCC help for Koster so far.  Larsen seems to be ahead.

The Endangered Species – Dems on Offense (5)

DE-AL – No investment by either party.  Carney seems to be well ahead here.

FL-25 – Refreshing that DCCC is spending here.  Rivera is a loose cannon.

HI-01 – DCCC is spending here.  NRCC will surreptitiously fund the state party if anything.  

IL-10 – Only Dem target where both parties have engaged.  Seals seems to be ahead.

LA-02 – No investment by either party.   Cao down 11 in DCCC internal taken before Obama ad.

This takes the cake, doesn’t it?

An election year already notable for its menagerie of extreme and unusual candidates can add another one: Rich Iott, the Republican nominee for Congress from Ohio’s 9th District, and a Tea Party favorite, who for years donned a German Waffen SS uniform and participated in Nazi re-enactments.

Iott, whose district lies in Northwest Ohio, was involved with a group that calls itself Wiking, whose members are devoted to re-enacting the exploits of an actual Nazi division, the 5th SS Panzer Division Wiking, which fought mainly on the Eastern Front during World War II. Iott’s participation in the Wiking group is not mentioned on his campaign’s website, and his name and photographs were removed from the Wiking website.

When contacted by The Atlantic, Iott confirmed his involvement with the group over a number of years, but said his interest in Nazi Germany was historical and he does not subscribe to the tenets of Nazism. “No, absolutely not,” he said. “In fact, there’s a disclaimer on the [Wiking] website. And you’ll find that on almost any reenactment website. It’s purely historical interest in World War II.”

Yeah, this is the guy:

Major props to the Atlantic’s excellent Josh Green for uncovering the story. Click the link to read more – and see more pics and even a video. I think my recent cracks about “consolidating panzer divisions” might wind up proving literally true in this district.

UPDATE: Good catch by TPM – the NRCC has already removed Iott from its Young Guns list.

• AK-Sen: Joe Miller finally got around to belatedly filing his financial disclosures, maybe feeling he had something to hide. He really shouldn’t, because he’s just like the rest of us: he’s carrying a lot of credit card debt. He owes between $35K and $80K on three separate charge accounts, and also owes himself $103K for a campaign loan.  That, my friends, is fiscal conservatism you can believe in. (His biggest asset seems to be undeveloped farmland worth at least $250K, apparently the same Delta Jct. land for which he was receiving farm subsidies.)

• FL-Sen: Here’s a freaky rumor (and I think it’s nothing more than that, as everything seems to be business as usual with the Kendrick Meek camp today, at least on the surface). The Wall St. Journal alludes to increased chatter that a Meek/Charlie Crist deal might be in the works for Meek to drop out of the race and clear the way for Crist to take all the left-of-center votes.

• IL-Sen, IL-Gov: The DGA is out with an internal poll of Illinois, via Global Strategy Group. The poll, though, has better news on the Senate front than the gubernatorial battle. Alexi Giannoulias leads Mark Kirk by 3: 40-37, with 3 each to the Green and Libertarian candidates. On the other hand, Pat Quinn, who’s popped up in the lead in a couple polls lately, trails Bill Brady by 1, at 36-35, with 4 for Green Rich Whitney, 2 for Lex Green, and 6 for Scott Lee Cohen. Just the fact that Quinn seems to be climbing back into the thick of things at this late date seems to be newsworthy in itself, though.

• MO-Sen: As is often the case with these advancing-in-a-different-direction stories, there have been some mixed signals about whether the DSCC is packing up in Missouri. Hotline is observing that this seems to be at least partially the case: they’ve canceled buys from Oct. 11 to Oct. 25, although the buy still seems intact for the last week before the election. They’ve spent $1.8 million in Missouri so far, but probably will be looking to spend that money on defense in West Virginia, or maybe even Washington, which seems to be slowly edging back onto the map.

• NV-Sen: We might expect a steady stream of endorsements on a regular basis from now until the election for Harry Reid from not-insane Republicans. Two were just unveiled in the last few days. One is from Bill Raggio, the former Republican leader in the state Senate (and a legislator since 1972), who has particular reason to dislike Sharron Angle, as she tried to primary him out of his Reno-area seat in 2008. The other is Dema Guinn, the widow of the recently deceased ex-Gov. Kenny Guinn, who also says that her former husband would have backed Reid in this case too.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Quinnipiac (10/1-5, likely voters, 9/16-20 in parens):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 55 (48)

Joe DioGuardi (R): 34 (42)

Undecided: 11 (9)

(MoE: ±2.9%)

SurveyUSA (10/5-7, likely voters, 9/20-21 in parens):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 54 (45)

Joe DioGuardi (R): 35 (44)

Other: 8 (8)

Undecided: 3 (4)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 57 (49)

Carl Paladino (R): 34 (40)

Other: 5 (8)

Undecided: 3 (3)

(MoE: ±4%)

I think we can conclude that both those previous Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA polls — the two ones that came out simultaneously and had the big New York races in single digits, spurring a wave of panic — were some combination of a perfect wave of primary bounce and big honkin’ outlier. These races have resumed looking pretty much the way they have all cycle except for those two blips.

We also have NY-Sen-A numbers (60-30 for Chuck Schumer over Jay Townsend in SurveyUSA, and 63-32 in Quinnipiac), and NY-AG numbers (Eric Schneiderman leads Dan Donovan 46-40 in SurveyUSA, and 43-32 in Quinnipiac). Quinnipiac also has Thomas DiNapoli leading Harry Wilson 49-31 in the Comptroller race.

Public Policy Polling (9/30-10/2, likely voters, 8/7-8 (RVs) in parentheses, gubernatorial numbers here):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 46 (46)

Ken Buck (R): 45 (43)

Undecided: 9 (12)

John Hickenlooper (D): 47 (48)

Dan Maes (R): 13 (23)

Tom Tancredo (C): 33 (22)

Undecided: 7 (7)

(MoE: ±3.4%)

Michael Bennet has the slimmest of leads in Colorado according to PPP, the pollster who’ve tended to be the most favorable to him. It’s an enthusiasm gap thing, although not as bad as in the midwest: if their August RV model were used, Bennet would lead 47-44 (and if the 2008 turnout model were used, he’d lead 50-41). Bennet’s approval is 35/49, while Buck is at 41/46.

On the gubernatorial front, Dan Maes has collapsed even further as his amateur-hour campaign leaks air; he’s down to 12/58 favorables (from 23/38 in their last poll). In a way, that’s bad news for John Hickenlooper, who needs a healthy split between the two conservatives instead of seeing Maes dwindle down into single digits, which may actually be possible given the current trajectory. Hickenlooper’s personal popularity (51/37) seems like it’ll be enough to help him weather even a complete Maes collapse, though.

Harstad Strategic Research (10/3-4, likely voters, no trendlines):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 44

Ken Buck (R): 41

Other: 3

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±4.4%)

For good measure, there’s also a poll of the Senate race out from Democratic pollster Harstad giving Michael Bennet a 3-point lead, and also finding Ken Buck with a 31/41 favorable. (Apparently this poll is from the Bennet campaign, though the memo doesn’t explicitly say.) I’m still not feeling terribly optimistic about this race, given that most other pollsters looking at this race have given Buck a mid-single-digits lead — and a leaked Dem poll with a 3-point lead doesn’t do much to encourage more optimism, but at least it plus the PPP poll show that the race is still in tossup territory.