Swing State Project

(I have cross-posted this diary on Calitics)

This is my first attempt at California since the partisan data by precinct became available in Dave’s Application.  

My diaries are often long, and it takes me a while to get to the point.  So, I will summarize the bottom line here:

* 43 solidly Democratic districts created; in each McCain gets 37% of vote or less (currently there are 34 Democratic representatives from California, and 1 of the 34 holds a swingy seat)

* Remaining 10 districts to GOP, with possibility that 2 of the 10 go our way at some point in the next decade

* 19 Hispanic majority districts created; 18 of the 19 are at least 55% Hispanic, so that a Hispanic representative has a real chance of being elected (currently, there are only 8 Hispanic representatives from California).   An additional 13 seats are minority-majority (with either an Asian or African-American plurality or no particular racial/ethnic minority dominant).

Now, back to the more lengthy explanation …

I wanted to create as many minority-majority or minority-plurality districts as possible.  Although in most states an increase in the number of minority-majority districts would have an inverse relationship with an increase in the number of Democratic districts, in California that relationship appears complimentary: an increase in Democratic districts goes hand-in-hand with an increase in Hispanic and other minority-majority or minority-plurality districts.

There’s one issue here that is a bit tricky.  The dataset with the Obama/McCain partisan numbers also uses 2000 census demographics.  Under the 2000 census, California was 47% white and 32% Hispanic.  However, more recent data, from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey indicates that the state was approximately 42% white and 37% Hispanic.  The ACS data does not go down to the census block level, and therefore Dave’s Application relied on Census 2000 data, to the block level, to generate racial/ethnic composition data for each precinct for the partisan data model.  On the other hand, the original dataset without partisan numbers does appear to use the more recent numbers — down to the county level (I am not sure if the ACS 2006-2008 data was used, but the resulting percentages correspond almost exactly to what the ACS numbers look like — 42% white; 37% Hispanic).

Therefore, for the purpose of this diary, I will list the demographic data for each district using the exact (yet older) demographic data, but will also provide estimated numbers using the newer (though more geographically inexact) data.  I was able to do this by “redrawing” my map from the partisan model into the original matrix without the partisan data.  So, please keep in mind that the 2006-2008 demographic numbers are just estimates, though they are closer to the current demographic situation than the 2000 data.  

To make sure that a Hispanic-majority district has enough of a minority population to provide an opportunity to elect a minority-representative, I set a benchmark for myself of at least 55% Hispanic (under the more recent estimated data) AND the Hispanic population should be at least 2 times as large as the next largest ethnic/racial group (so a district that is 55% Hispanic and 27% white would work, but 55% Hispanic and 30% white would not work).   All my Hispanic-majority districts fit the criteria except for two which are both 55% Hispanic and 28% white and one that is 50+% Hispanic and 25% white.

There are currently only eight Hispanic representatives from California.  Under this plan, that number is likely to be at least doubled.  10 new Hispanic-majority districts are created.  In addition, two other districts have enough of a Hispanic population to elect a Hispanic representative at some point in the near future.  The plan also creates three new Asian-plurality districts, three minority-majority districts (with no particular minority group that’s dominant) and strengthens CA-35 as an African-American-plurality district.

Another goal I had in mind when drawing this plan, was to keep as many counties intact as possible.  The current (2002) plan has a total of 120 “county-fragments” in the plan.  For example, the current CA-1 has 7 fragments: the whole counties of Del Norte, Humboldt, Mendocino, Lake, and Napa (that’s 5), as well as parts of Sonoma and Yolo (2 more).  Under the proposed plan here, I have 121 “county-fragments” (and that includes one tiny sliver of Sacramento Co. that’s in my CA-4, and is therefore a “fragment” only because I tried to use a small population deviation (+/- 500 persons) for each of my districts.)  Therefore, my plan is technically not any more gerrymandered than the existing plan if looking at gerrymandering through the prism of how counties are split among districts.

Last, but not least … the partisan numbers for my map …

The current map of California is, for all practical purposes, a Republican gerrymander.  It was designed in 2002 as a “bipartisan compromise” between the two parties (even though Democrats were in charge), but today the faulty map is the only thing keeping so many Republican Congressmen in office from a state that is as Democratic as California.  To demonstrate — in 2008, 31 out of 34 Democratic Representatives won by at least 68% of the vote, while 13 out of 19 Republicans won with a winning percentage of 58% or less (including four GOPers who won with 51% or less).

One of the arguments the Democrats who designed the current map made was that it was “impossible” to create any additional Democratic seats without endangering the Democratic seats that were created.  This argument is basically bs.  As you can see from this proposal and the map below, the CA-45 that I create is made up entirely out of territory currently in GOP districts.  

The proposed CA-45 encompasses parts of the current CA-45, CA-44, CA-41 and CA-49, and the resulting district is 65 Obama – 34 McCain.  The district is also quite compact and confined entirely to one county – Riverside.  Thus, it was very possible to create at least one more Democratic seat in 2002, since the creation of such a district would have had no effect on any Democratic seats that were created, as all the territory comes only out of GOP areas.  (Btw, if you are a little more creative with the lines, a district entirely within Riverside Co. that takes territory only out of currently GOP-held districts can be created that is 68 Obama – 30 McCain.  The theoretical district would extend a bit more into the city of Riverside, and lose territory elsewhere; however, in my proposed map here I wanted to put most of those Democratic Riverside areas into a new CA-48 that is also designed to be a new Democratic district.)

Another example of how California Democrats could have drawn a better map in 2002 is below.  The Democrats could have created a district in San Diego Co. that is 55 Obama – 44 McCain using only territory that comes out of the current CA-50, CA-52 and CA-49, all Republican districts.  What’s more, is that the theoretical district would arguably do a better job of keeping communities together, as the northern third of the city of San Diego would now be in only one district instead of being split between CA-50 and CA-52, and much of the northern and eastern boundaries of the district would correspond almost exactly to the northern and eastern boundaries of the city.

Although the theoretical district would be politically competitive, and not as much of a slam-dunk Democratic district as the proposed CA-45 above, it would have likely been Democratic-held today (with all other things being equal) since it would be approximately 7 points more Democratic than the current CA-50 (Francine Busby lost the special 2006 election by only 4 points and Nick Liebham lost his 2008 race by 5 points).  (Btw, in this proposed plan I decided to draw somewhat different lines in San Diego Co. and came up with three San Diego-based districts that are all 62 Obama – 37 McCain).

The examples above are not the only ones, but are just an illustration of the existing plan’s gutlessness.  The Democrats in 2002 apparently spent millions to create such a plan; it’s really a travesty that it wound up being a gerrymander that over-represents GOP strength in the state.

The proposed plan in this diary creates 10 new solidly Democratic districts.  All existing and new Democratic seats now become ones where McCain had at most 37% of the vote in 2008.  I feel that is enough of a cushion (basically 24-25 points Obama over McCain) to ensure Democratic representation.  Btw, the numbers for California as a whole were almost exactly 62% Obama; 37% McCain. (I’m classifying McNerney’s seat as currently “Republican” since it was designed that way in 2002, and could still go GOP depending on the political climate, currently being only a 54% Obama district).  I also tried to keep the geographic/political base of each Democratic incumbent intact while designing this plan.

If this plan was implemented, Democrats would be basically assured of 43 House of Representatives seats from California, with the possibility of picking up another two at some point over the next decade.  Of course, all now depends on whether Jerry Brown can win in November, and even if he wins — how bold are California Democrats willing to be.

For those arguing that Republicans should somehow have more than 10 seats from California, I reference you to three points:  1). the current plan is tilted towards the GOP and is not representative of the partisan nature of California; likewise, there are not enough Hispanic and other minority-majority districts in the state, and in order to create a map that better represents minority populations, more Democratic districts need to be created;  2). until both parties stop using gerrymandering as a political tool, there is no reason why Democrats should disarm unilaterally; and  3.) look at the recent health care debate and see just how EVERY little seat mattered !  With nine or ten more California Democrats in the House helping Pelosi, the process would have likely gone a whole lot smoother, and we would have never been even close to that precipice of defeat …

Anyhow, here’s the plan:

District 1:

Incumbent: Mike Thompson (D)

Current District:  Obama 66; McCain 32

Proposed District:  Obama 64; McCain 34

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 73 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 3 asian ; 18 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 67 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 23 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes all of Napa, Lake, Colusa and Glenn Counties, part of Sonoma Co. – Santa Rosa, Sonoma, Rohnert Park, Cotati, Sebastopol, and part of Butte Co. – Chico, Oroville, Paradise

District 2:  

Incumbent: Wally Herger (R)

Current District:  Obama 43; McCain 55

Proposed District:  Obama 41; McCain 57

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 78 white ; 2 black ; 2 native american ; 4 asian ; 11 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 74 white ; 2 black ; 2 native american ; 4 asian ; 15 hispanic ; 3 other

Includes all of Siskiyou, Modoc, Shasta, Tehama, Lassen, Plumas, Sierra, Nevada, Yuba and Sutter Counties, part of Sacramento Co. and part of Butte Co. – Gridley, Biggs

District 3:  

Incumbent: Dan Lungren (R)

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 49

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 35

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 52 white ; 9 black ; 1 native american ; 13 asian ; 20 hispanic ; 4 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 46 white ; 10 black ; 1 native american ; 16 asian ; 24 hispanic ; 4 other

New minority-majority district

New Democratic district

Includes all of Yolo Co., and part of Sacramento Co. – Citrus Heights and part of city of Sacramento

District 4:  

Incumbent: Tom McClintock (R)

Current District:  Obama 44; McCain 54

Proposed District:  Obama 43; McCain 55

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 83 white ; 1 black ; 1 native american ; 3 asian ; 10 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 79 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 11 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes all of Placer, El Dorado, Amador, Calaveras, Tuolumne and Mariposa Counties, and small sliver of Sacramento Co.

District 5:  

Incumbent: Doris Matsui (D)

Current District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 35

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 60 white ; 9 black ; 1 native american ; 11 asian ; 15 hispanic ; 4 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 53 white ; 10 black ; 1 native american ; 13 asian ; 20 hispanic ; 4 other

Includes part of Sacramento Co. – incl. most of the city of Sacramento

District 6:

Incumbent: Lynn Woolsey (D)

Current District:  Obama 76; McCain 22

Proposed District:  Obama 72; McCain 26

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 78 white ; 2 black ; 2 native american ; 3 asian ; 12 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 74 white ; 2 black ; 2 native american ; 4 asian ; 16 hispanic ; 3 other

Includes all of Del Norte, Humboldt, Trinity, Mendocino and Marin Counties, and part of Sonoma Co. – Petaluma, Windsor, Healdsburg, Cloverdale

District 7:  

Incumbent: George Miller (D)

Current District:  Obama 72; McCain 27

Proposed District:  Obama 66; McCain 33

2000 Demographics: 53 white ; 11 black ; 1 native american ; 12 asian ; 19 hispanic ; 5 other

Estimated 2006-2008 Demographics: 47 white ; 11 black ; 1 native american ; 13 asian ; 25 hispanic ; 4 other

Includes all of Solano Co. and part of Contra Costa Co. – Martinez, Pleasant Hill, Concord, Clayton, Pittsburg

District 8:  

Incumbent: Nancy Pelosi (D)

Current District:  Obama 85; McCain 12

Proposed District:  Obama 85; McCain 13

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 42 white ; 9 black ; 0 native american ; 31 asian ; 15 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 45 white ; 7 black ; 0 native american ; 31 asian ; 15 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes most of San Francisco (district expands into Sunset District to maintain equal population)

District 9:  

Incumbent: Barbara Lee (D)

Current District:  Obama 88; McCain 10

Proposed District:  Obama 74; McCain 25

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 54 white ; 17 black ; 0 native american ; 12 asian ; 14 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 48 white ; 16 black ; 0 native american ; 15 asian ; 18 hispanic ; 3 other

Includes part of Alameda Co. – Berkeley, Albany, Emeryville, Dublin, Livermore and part of Oakland, and part of Contra Costa Co. – Moraga, Orinda, Danville, San Ramon, Oakley

District 10:  

Incumbent: John Garamendi (D)

Current District:  Obama 65; McCain 33

Proposed District:  Obama 65; McCain 33

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 57 white ; 11 black ; 1 native american ; 11 asian ; 17 hispanic ; 4 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 49 white ; 11 black ; 0 native american ; 13 asian ; 23 hispanic ; 3 other

New minority-majority district

Includes part of Contra Costa Co. – Richmond, San Pablo, El Cerrito, Hercules, Pinole, Lafayette, Walnut Creek, Antioch, Brentwood, and part of Sacramento Co. – Isleton, Galt, Folsom

District 11:  

Incumbent: Jerry McNerney (D)

Current District:  Obama 54; McCain 44

Proposed District:  Obama 66; McCain 33

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 54 white ; 9 black ; 1 native american ; 12 asian ; 20 hispanic ; 4 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 49 white ; 8 black ; 0 native american ; 15 asian ; 24 hispanic ; 3 other

New minority-majority district

New Democratic district – that may sound strange, but this district was designed in 2002 as a GOP seat.  It has moved towards the Democrats since then, but there’s a reasonable chance the incumbent Democrat could be defeated under the current lines at some point in the future.  The proposed plan significantly increases the Democratic percentage here.

Includes part of Alameda Co. – Piedmont, Pleasanton and part of Oakland, and part of San Joaquin Co. – Tracy, Manteca, Ripon, Escalon, Lodi and part of Stockton

District 12:  

Incumbent: Jackie Speier (D)

Current District:  Obama 74; McCain 24

Proposed District:  Obama 74; McCain 24

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 50 white ; 3 black ; 0 native american ; 26 asian ; 16 hispanic ; 4 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 48 white ; 2 black ; 0 native american ; 30 asian ; 17 hispanic ; 3 other

Includes part of San Francisco and part of San Mateo Co. – Daly City, Brisbane, South San Francisco, Colma, San Bruno, Pacifica, Half Moon Bay, Millbrae, Burlingame, Hillsborough, Foster City, San Mateo, Belmont, San Carlos, Woodside and part of Redwood City

District 13:

Incumbent: Pete Stark (D)

Current District:  Obama 74; McCain 24

Proposed District:  Obama 75; McCain 23

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 36 white ; 8 black ; 1 native american ; 28 asian ; 22 hispanic ; 5 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 32 white ; 7 black ; 0 native american ; 33 asian ; 25 hispanic ; 3 other

New Asian-plurality district

Includes part of Alameda Co. – Fremont, Newark, Union City, Hayward, San Leandro, Alameda, and part of Oakland

District 14:  

Incumbent: Anna Eshoo (D)

Current District:  Obama 73; McCain 25

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 35

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 59 white ; 3 black ; 1 native american ; 9 asian ; 24 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 54 white ; 3 black ; 0 native american ; 11 asian ; 30 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of San Mateo Co. – Menlo Park, Atherton, East Palo Alto, Portola Valley and part of Redwood City, part of Santa Clara Co. – Palo Alto, Mountain View, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Monte Sereno, part of Merced Co. – Los Banos, Gustine, and part of Stanislaus Co. – Turlock, Hughson, Waterford, Oakdale, Riverbank and part of Modesto (A bit over 50% of the new district is in Silicon Valley, while the remainder is in the Central Valley.)

District 15:  

Incumbent: Mike Honda (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 69; McCain 29

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 44 white ; 2 black ; 0 native american ; 35 asian; 15 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 38 white ; 2 black ; 0 native american ; 42 asian ; 16 hispanic ; 2 other

New Asian-plurality district

Includes part of Santa Clara Co. – Milpitas, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Saratoga and part of San Jose

District 16:

Incumbent: Zoe Lofgren (D)

Current District:  Obama 70; McCain 29

Proposed District:  Obama 68; McCain 31

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 45 white ; 3 black ; 1 native american ; 20 asian ; 27 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 39 white ; 3 black ; 0 native american ; 25 asian ; 30 hispanic ; 2  other

Includes part of Santa Clara Co. – Campbell, Los Gatos, Morgan Hill, Gilroy and part of San Jose

District 17:

Incumbent: Sam Farr (D)

Current District:  Obama 72; McCain 26

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 35

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 67 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 22 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 63 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 5 asian ; 27 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes all of Santa Cruz Co., part of Monterey Co. – Monterey, Carmel, Pacific Grove, Del Rey Oaks, Sand City, Seaside, Marina, part of San Luis Obispo Co. – Paso Robles, Atascadero, Arroyo Grande, and part of Santa Barbara Co. – Lompoc, Buelton, Solvang

District 18:  

Incumbent: Dennis Cardoza (D)

Current District:  Obama 59; McCain 39

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 37

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 34 white ; 4 black ; 1 native american ; 7 asian ; 50+ hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 29 white ; 4 black ; 1 native american ; 7 asian ; 59 hispanic ; 2

other

New Hispanic-majority district

Includes all of San Benito Co., part of Monterey Co. – Salinas, Gonzales, Soledad, Greenfield, King City, part of Merced Co. – Merced, Atwater, Livingston, Dos Palos, and part of Fresno Co. – Firebaugh, Mendota, San Joaquin, Coalinga, Huron, Kerman and part of city of Fresno

District 19:  

Incumbent: George Radanovich (R) (retiring)

Current District:  Obama 46; McCain 52

Proposed District:  Obama 45; McCain 53

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 40 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 50+ hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 35 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 56 hispanic ; 1 other

New Hispanic-majority district



Includes part of Madera Co. – Madera, Chowchilla, part of Fresno Co. – Sanger, Reedley, Orange Cove, Kingsburg, part of Clovis and part of the city of Fresno, and part of Tulare Co. – Tulare, Porterville, Lindsay, Farmersville, Woodlake, Dinuba

The territory contained in the proposed district is already over 50% Hispanic even under the 2000 Census numbers; it is estimated to be at least 56% Hispanic today.  The problem for Democrats is that a large proportion of the Hispanic population is undocumented and/or unregistered (also there’s a sizeable historical Portuguese population here which “skews” the Hispanic numbers).  Nevertheless, with demographic change over the next decade, this district can quickly turn our way despite the current GOP status (like CA-47 did in the 1990’s; remember Loretta Sanchez v. Bob Dornan)

District 20:  

Incumbent: Jim Costa (D)

Current District:  Obama 60; McCain 39

Proposed District:  Obama 61; McCain 37

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 22 white ; 8 black ; 2 native american ; 7 asian ; 59 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 20 white ; 8 black ; 1 native american ; 6 asian ; 64 hispanic ; 1 other

Includes all of Kings Co.,  part of Fresno Co. – Fowler, Selma, Parlier and part of city of Fresno, and part of Kern Co. – Delano, McFarland, Wasco, Arvin and part of Bakersfield

District 21:  

Incumbent: Devin Nunes (R)*

Current District:  Obama 42; McCain 56

Proposed District:  Obama 66; McCain 33

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 31 white ; 6 black ; 1 native american ; 14 asian ; 45 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 25 white ; 6 black ; 1 native american ; 16 asian ; 50+ hispanic ; 2 other

* District is completely “relocated” to another part of the Central Valley.  Most of Nunes’ current district is split between the new CA-19 and the new CA-22.

New Hispanic-majority district

New Democratic district

Includes part of Santa Clara Co. – part of San Jose, part of Stanislaus Co. – Newman, Patterson, Ceres and part of Modesto, and part of San Joaquin Co. – Lathrop and most of Stockton

District 22:  

Incumbent: Kevin McCarthy (R)

Current District:  Obama 38; McCain 60

Proposed District:  Obama 34; McCain 64

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 70 white ; 3 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 19 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 65 white ; 3 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 24 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of Madera Co., part of Fresno Co. – part of Clovis, part of Tulare Co. – Exeter, Visalia, and part of Kern Co. – Shafter, California City, Tehachapi, Ridgecrest and part of Bakersfield

District 23:  

Incumbent: Lois Capps (D)

Current District:  Obama 66; McCain 32

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 57 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 34 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 53 white ; 2 black ; 0 native american ; 5 asian ; 39 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of San Luis Obispo Co. – Morro Bay, San Luis Obispo, Pismo Beach, Grover Beach, part of Santa Barbara Co. – Santa Maria, Guadalupe, Santa Barbara, Carpinteria, and part of Ventura Co. – Ojai, Santa Paula, Filmore, Simi Valley and part of Oxnard

District 24:  

Incumbent: Elton Gallegly (R)

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 37

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 63 white ; 3 black ; 1 native american ; 6 asian ; 26 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 57 white ; 2 black ; 0 native american ; 7 asian ; 31 hispanic ; 2 other

New Democratic district

Includes part of Ventura Co. – Ventura, Port Hueneme, Camarillo, Moorpark, Thousand Oaks, and most of Oxnard, and part of Los Angeles Co. – Malibu, Santa Monica, Venice part of Los Angeles

District 25:

Incumbent: Howard McKeon (R)

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 48

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 35

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 30 white ; 7 black ; 1 native american ; 9 asian ; 50+ hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 28 white ; 6 black ; 1 native american ; 9 asian ; 55 hispanic ; 1 other

New Hispanic-majority district

New Democratic district

Includes all of Alpine, Mono and Inyo Counties, part of San Bernardino Co. – Adelanto, Victorville, and part of Los Angeles Co. – Baldwin Park, Irwindale, El Monte, Azusa, Covina, Claremont and parts of Pomona, Palmdale, Monrovia and Duarte

District 26:  

Incumbent: David Dreier (R)

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 47

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 37

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 24 white ; 6 black ; 1 native american ; 12 asian ; 55 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 21 white ; 5 black ; 0 native american ; 12 asian ; 60 hispanic ; 1 other

New Hispanic-majority district

New Democratic district

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – La Puente, South El Monte, Industry, West Covina, and part of Pomona, and part of San Bernardino Co. – Chino, Chino Hills, Montclair, and parts of Upland and Rancho Cucamonga

District 27:  

Incumbents: Brad Sherman (D)

Current District:  Obama 66; McCain 32

Proposed District:  Obama 64; McCain 34

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 54 white ; 5 black ; 1 native american ; 8 asian ; 29 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 52 white ; 5 black ; 0 native american ; 9 asian ; 32 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of Kern Co. – Taft, Maricopa and part of Bakersfield, and part of Los Angeles Co. – part of Santa Clarita and part of the city of Los Angeles – parts of San Fernando Valley and Hollywood

District 28:  

Incumbent: Howard Berman (D)

Current District:  Obama 76; McCain 22

Proposed District:  Obama 64; McCain 34

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 26 white ; 7 black ; 1 native american ; 6 asian ; 58 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 25 white ; 6 black ; 0 native american ; 6 asian ; 62 hispanic ; 1 other

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – San Fernando, Lancaster, part of city of Los Angeles – San Fernando Valley, and part of Palmdale

This district is very likely to elect a Hispanic representative at some point in the near future

District 29:  

Incumbent: Adam Schiff (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 63; McCain 35

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 49 white ; 7 black ; 1 native american ; 9 asian ; 31 hispanic ; 4 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 48 white ; 6 black ;  0 native american ; 10 asian ; 33 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – Burbank, Pasadena, Sierra Madre, Bradbury, Glendora, San Dimas, La Verne and part of Los Angeles

District 30:  

Incumbent: Henry Waxman (D)

Current District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Proposed District:  Obama 64; McCain 34

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 71 white ; 3 black ; 0 native american ; 10 asian ; 13 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 69 white ; 2 black ; 0 native american ; 11 asian ; 16 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – Beverly Hills, West Hollywood, Calabassas, Hidden Hills, Agoura Hills, Westlake Village, part of Los Angeles – parts of Bel Air and San Fernando Valley, and most of Santa Clarita

District 31:  

Incumbent: Xavier Beccera (D)

Current District:  Obama 80; McCain 18

Proposed District:  Obama 72; McCain 26

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 25 white ; 5 black ; 1 native american ; 13 asian ; 53 hispanic ; 4 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 24 white ; 4 black ; 0 native american ; 14 asian ; 56 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – Glendale, La Canada Flintridge, and part of city of  Los Angeles

District 32:  

Incumbent: Judy Chu (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 22 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 42 asian ; 32 hispanic ; other

Estimated 2006-2008: 20 white ; 2 black ; 0 native american ; 45 asian ; 32 hispanic ; 1 other

New Asian-plurality district

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Monterey Park, Alhambra, South Pasadena, San Marino, Temple City, San Gabriel, Rosemead, Arcadia, Walnut, Diamond Bar, La Habra Heights, part of Montebello and part of Los Angeles

The district becomes plurality Asian.  Many Hispanic-majority areas of the current CA-32 are detached in order to create the new Hispanic-majority CA-25 and CA-26 just to the north and east of the new CA-32.

District 33:  

Incumbent: Diane Watson (D) (retiring)

Current District:  Obama 87; McCain 12

Proposed District:  Obama 83; McCain 16

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 11 white ; 24 black ; 1 native american ; 11 asian ; 52 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 11 white ; 21 black ; 0 native american ; 11 asian ; 56 hispanic ; 1 other

New Hispanic-majority district

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – Lawndale, Culver City, and parts of Los Angeles, Inglewood and Hawthorne

District 34:  

Incumbent: Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)

Current District:  Obama 75; McCain 23

Proposed District:  Obama 70; McCain 28

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 26 white ; 6 black ; 1 native american ; 11 asian ; 54 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 24 white ; 5 black ; 0 native american ; 12 asian ; 57 hispanic ; 1 other

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Downey, Bellflower, Signal Hill, Vernon, Maywood, Bell Gardens, and parts of Los Angeles and Long Beach

District 35:  

Incumbent: Maxine Waters (D)

Current District:  Obama 84; McCain 14

Proposed District:  Obama 82; McCain 16

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 15 white ; 43 black ; 1 native american ; 9 asian ; 31 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 15 white ; 40 black ; 0 native american ; 9 asian ; 34 hispanic ; 2 other

New African-American plurality district – yes, that may sound strange, but the current CA-35 is already over 50% Hispanic; this plan combines the most African-American parts of several districts into one; otherwise, there’s a good chance a black representative may not hold a single seat in southern California at some point during the next decade, as much of south-central LA has become Hispanic-majority

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Rancho Palos Verdes, Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates, Avalon, and parts of Compton, Carson, Inglewood, Gardena and Hawthorne and Los Angeles (south central area and San Pedro)

District 36:  

Incumbent: Jane Harman (D)

Current District:  Obama 64; McCain 34

Proposed District:  Obama 64; McCain 35

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 58 white ; 5 black ; 0 native american ; 16 asian ; 17 hispanic ; 4 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 58 white ; 4 black ; 0 native american ; 18 asian ; 18 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. – Palos Verdes Estates, Torrance, Lomita, Redondo Beach, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, El Segundo, and parts of Gardena and Los Angeles – Pacific Palisades, Brentwood, West LA and area around LAX

District 37:  

Incumbents: Laura Richardson (D)

Current District:  Obama 80; McCain 19

Proposed District:  Obama 69; McCain 29

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 21 white ; 11 black ; 1 native american ; 11 asian ; 54 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 21 white ; 10 black ; 0 native american ; 12 asian ; 57 hispanic ; 1 other

New Hispanic-majority district



Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Paramount, Huntington Park, Bell, Cudahy, and parts of Los Angeles and Long Beach, and part of Orange Co. – Los Alamitos, Cypress, La Palma

District 38:  

Incumbent: Grace Napolitano (D)

Current District:  Obama 71; McCain 27

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 25 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 8 asian ; 62 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 23 white ; 1 black ; 0 native american ; 8 asian ; 66 hispanic ; 1 other

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Whittier, Norwalk, La Mirada, Santa Fe Springs, East LA, and parts of Los Angeles, Montebello and Pico Rivera, and part of Orange Co. – Fullerton, La Habra

District 39:

Incumbent: Linda Sánchez (D)

Current District:  Obama 65; McCain 32

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 24 white ; 3 black ; 1 native american ; 15 asian ; 55 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 22 white ; 3 black ; 0 native american ; 16 asian ; 58 hispanic ; 1 other

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Lakewood, Hawaiian Gardens, Artesia, Cerritos, and parts of Los Angeles and Pico Rivera, and part of Orange Co. – Buena Park, Stanton and part of Anaheim

District 40:  

Incumbent: Ed Royce (R)

Current District:  Obama 47; McCain 51

Proposed District:  Obama 42; McCain 56

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 58 white ; 1 black ; 1 native american ; 19 asian ; 18 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 53 white ; 1 black ; 0 native american ; 23 asian ; 21 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of Orange Co. – Brea, Yorba Linda, Placentia, Garden Grove, Fountain Valley, Newport Beach and part of Anaheim

District 41:  

Incumbent: Jerry Lewis (R)

Current District:  Obama 44; McCain 54

Proposed District:  Obama 40; McCain 58

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 69 white ; 4 black ; 1 native american ; 3 asian ; 19 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 62 white ; 4 black ; 1 native american ; 5 asian ; 26 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of San Bernardino Co. – Hesperia, Apple Valley, Barstow, Needles, Twentynine Palms, Yucca Valley, Big Bear Lake, Yucaipa, Grand Terrace, and parts of

Upland and Redlands, and part of Riverside Co. – Banning, Beaumont, Calimesa

District 42:  

Incumbent: Gary Miller (R)

Current District:  Obama 45; McCain 53

Proposed District:  Obama 43; McCain 55

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 72 white ; 1 black ; 0 native american ; 9 asian ; 14 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 68 white ; 1 black ; 0 native american ; 11 asian ; 17 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of Orange Co. – San Clemente, Dana Point, San Juan Capistrano, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Woods, Laguna Hills, Lake Forest, Orange, Villa Park, Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita

District 43:  

Incumbent: Joe Baca (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 65; McCain 33

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 28 white ; 13 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 50+ hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 22 white ; 12 black ; 0 native american ; 5 asian ; 59 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of San Bernardino Co. – city of San Bernardino, Colton, Rialto, Fontana, Highland, Loma Linda, part of Redlands

District 44:

Incumbent: Ken Calvert (R)

Current District:  Obama 50; McCain 49

Proposed District:  Obama 43; McCain 55

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 66 white ; 4 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 23 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 56 white ; 4 black ; 1 native american ; 6 asian ; 32 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of Riverside Co. – Norco, Corona, Canyon Lake, Murrietta, San Jacinto, Hemet, and part of city of Riverside

District 45:  

Incumbent: Mary Bono (R)

Current District:  Obama 52; McCain 47

Proposed District:  Obama 65; McCain 34

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 33 white ; 10 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 50+ hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 28 white ; 9 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 57 hispanic ; 2 other

New Hispanic-majority district

New Democratic district

Includes part of Riverside Co. – Moreno Valley, Perris, Lake Elsinore, Palm Springs, Desert Hot Springs, Cathedral City, Indio, Coachella, Blythe and part of city of Riverside

District 46:  

Incumbent: Dana Rohrabacher (R)

Current District:  Obama 48; McCain 50

Proposed District:  Obama 64; McCain 34

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 27 white ; 10 black ; 1 native american ; 7 asian ; 54 hispanic ; 1 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 24 white ; 9 black ; 0 native american ; 8 asian ; 58 hispanic ; 1 other

New Hispanic-majority district

New Democratic district

Includes part of Los Angeles Co. –  Lynwood, South Gate, and parts of Compton, Carson and city of Los Angeles, and part of Orange Co. – Seal Beach, Westminster, Huntington Beach

District 47:  

Incumbent: Loretta Sanchez (D)

Current District:  Obama 60; McCain 38

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 33 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 12 asian ; 51 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 28 white ; 2 black ; 0 native american ; 13 asian ; 55 hispanic ; 1 other

Includes part of Orange Co. – Santa Ana, Irvine, Costa Mesa, Tustin, Laguna Beach, Aliso Viejo

District 48:  

Incumbent: John Campbell (R)*

Current District:  Obama 49; McCain 49

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 36

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 33 white ; 8 black ; 1 native american ; 5 asian ; 50+ hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 27 white ; 7 black ; 0 native american ; 7 asian ; 58 hispanic ; 2 other

* District is completely “relocated” to another part of Southern California

New Hispanic-majority district

New Democratic district

Includes part of San Bernardino Co. – Ontario, and parts of Fontana and Rancho Cucamonga, and part of Riverside Co. – part of city of Riverside and part of Corona

District 49:  

Incumbent: Darrell Issa (R)

Current District:  Obama 45; McCain 53

Proposed District:  Obama 47; McCain 51

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 59 white ; 4 black ; 1 native american ; 6 asian ; 28 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 54 white ; 3 black ; 0 native american ; 6 asian ; 34 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of San Diego County – Oceanside, Vista, Carlsbad, San Marcos, Escondido, Camp Pendleton

This district becomes slightly more Democratic, and there’s a chance it may go our way sometime during the next decade if demographic changes here proceed along the current path.

District 50:  

Incumbent: Brian Bilbray (R)

Current District:  Obama 51; McCain 47

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 37

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 60 white ; 4 black ; 1 native american ; 14 asian ; 17 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 57 white ; 4 black ; 0 native american ; 16 asian ; 20 hispanic ; 3 other

New Democratic district

Includes part of San Diego County – northern part of San Diego, Del Mar, Solana Beach, Encinitas and coastal areas of Carlsbad and Oceanside

District 51:  

Incumbent: Bob Filner (D)

Current District:  Obama 63; McCain 35

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 37

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 24 white ; 7 black ; 1 native american ; 13 asian ; 53 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 21 white ; 6 black ; 1 native american ; 13 asian ; 57 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes all of Imperial Co., and part of San Diego County – southern part of San Diego, Chula Vista, Imperial Beach, Lemon Grove

This district is very likely to elect a Hispanic representative at some point in the near future

District 52:  

Incumbent: Duncan Hunter (R)

Current District:  Obama 45; McCain 53

Proposed District:  Obama 38; McCain 60

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 75 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 3 asian ;16 hispanic ; 2 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 71 white ; 2 black ; 1 native american ; 4 asian ; 20 hispanic ; 2 other

Includes part of San Diego County – Poway, Santee, and part of Riverside Co. – Temecula, La Quinta, Indian Wells, Palm Desert, Rancho Mirage

District 53:  

Incumbent: Susan Davis (D)

Current District:  Obama 68; McCain 30

Proposed District:  Obama 62; McCain 37

Proposed District Demographics:

2000 Census: 53 white ; 9 black ; 1 native american ; 7 asian ; 27 hispanic ; 3 other

Estimated 2006-2008: 51 white ; 8 black ; 1 native american ; 8 asian ; 30 hispanic ; 3 other

Includes part of San Diego County – central part of San Diego, Coronado, La Mesa, El Cajon

And that’s it for my plan … Thanks for comments and suggestions.

• AZ-Sen: Looks like the Maverick has finally been broken (as he’s decided that it’s preferable to spend six years chewing his cud while fenced in the GOP pasture, instead of getting sent prematurely to the glue factory). In the face of a potentially serious primary from the right from J.D. Hayworth, John McCain says not only is he no longer a maverick, but he “never considered himself a maverick.” (Except for in all those campaign ads from two years ago?) In response, Hayworth said McCain is trying to “encourage amnesia.”

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: There’s a new LA Times/USC poll of the two major races in California, with a mixed bag of results for Democrats. Like most pollsters, they find that Republican Meg Whitman has pulled into a small lead over Jerry Brown in the governor’s race, thanks to her nonstop deluge of self-funded advertising; she leads Brown 44-41, while she leads Steve Poizner in the GOP primary 60-20. On the Senate side, Barbara Boxer leads a Generic Republican by a surprisingly wide 48-34. Polling Generic R seems pretty weird, though, considering that there are only two likely opponents for her: Tom Campbell leads Carly Fiorina in the GOP primary 29-25, with Chuck DeVore lagging at 9. One other bit of good news for Dems: by a 46-29 margin, voters prefer to back a candidate who backed health care reform.

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet is playing it safe, making plans for a petition drive to make sure his name is on the ballot in November. He needs at least 30% at the Democratic state convention to qualify, but his Plan B seems to be an acknowledgment that he may be facing a rough time at the convention too. Remember that he lost at the caucus level to former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff (whose main source of strength seems to be insiders and activists, rather than the broader population).

• IN-Sen: CQ takes a look at the NRSC’s private teeth-gnashing over the possibility that kooky ex-Rep. John Hostettler might beat ex-Sen. Dan Coats in the primary, something that can’t be ruled out in an anti-establishment year like this one. They’d then have to decide whether they want to financially prop up Hostettler, a legendarily poor fundraiser who’s relied on shoestring campaigns and religious right ground troops. Still, a reasonably competent Hostettler ought to be able to make short work of Coats in the GOP primary, given the amount of material he has to work with: for instance, it turns out that Coats, when lobbying for King & Spaulding, lobbied Congress in favor of cap and trade, the same legislation he claims he now opposes.

• NV-Sen: If there’s one reason not to quite count out Harry Reid yet, it’s his ability to bring in the campaign cash. He brought in more than $1.5 million for the quarter, giving him more than $10 million in receipts so far this cycle. Sue Lowden, ostensibly the GOP’s top contender, says she raised about $500K and will match that dollar-for-dollar from her own personal stash. Danny Tarkanian raised $445K last quarter.

• NY-Sen-B (pdf): These numbers are a little stale, but we found there were some more useful numbers buried in that Marist poll from last week where the topline was just the usual rigamarole about the Kirsten Gillibrand vs. George Pataki matchup that’s very unlikely to happen (especially not if Al D’Amato has anything to say about it). They also tested some head-to-heads with the lesser GOPers who are actually in the race: Gillibrand beats Bruce Blakeman 54-25, Joe DioGuardi 54-27, and David Malpass 54-25. They also looked at the GOP primary, finding DioGuardi winning it with 18, followed by Blakeman at 10, Malpass at 9, and non-candidate Dan Senor at 4. A permutation including Pataki finds Pataki at 62, with DioGuardi at 7, Blakeman at 4, and Malpass and Senor at 2. In other news, Gillibrand picked up an endorsement today from one of her biggest skeptics, Assemblyman and Kings Co. Dem chair Vito Lopez. Lopez had been considering backing Harold Ford Jr., way back in those heady days of February.

• WA-Sen: Dino Rossi is still saying he’s “completely undecided” about running for Senate, but will do it if he thinks he has a “50% chance” of winning. Here’s one more bit that might help move his decision along, though: financially, he’d be starting from scratch against Patty Murray, who raked in another $1 million last quarter, bringing her total war chest to $5.9 million.

• AL-Gov: I gather from the comments that SSP is full of mustache aficionados, and this news might prove heartbreaking to them: Ron Sparks shaved off his legendary ‘stache. He says this was a spur-of-the-moment decision at the barber shop (and hopefully not the result of thorough focus grouping?). I just hope Travis Childers doesn’t decide to follow suit.

• NY-Gov: Wealthy businessman Carl Paladino has decided to go ahead with his teabaggish-sounding campaign for Governor, kicking off his bid today in Buffalo. He’ll be running in the GOP primary, although he’d previously made noises about a possible independent run. Unfortunately, his rollout might be overshadowed by other news today… that he had a daughter with his mistress 10 years ago, and kept the child secret from his wife until last year.

• OH-Gov: In response to pressure to release his financials, John Kasich released his 2008 tax returns. Kasich earned $615K from now-kaput Lehman Brothers in 2008, including $183K base and a $432K bonus (but no “golden parachute” as Lehman Brothers collapsed). Oh, by the way, he also earned $265K as a Fox News commentator, $166K in speaking fees, $62K as an associate for Schottenstein Property Group, $45K as an Ohio State Univ. lecturer, $77K for being on the board of directors of two companies, and $122K in interest and dividends. Just your average teabagging Joe Lunchpail.

• HI-01: Charles Djou is trying to get some mileage out of the fact that neither Ed Case nor Colleen Hanabusa lives in HI-01. This kind of thing usually doesn’t matter much even in most other states, and seems to matter even less in Hawaii, though, where the island of Oahu gets split between the two districts and no one seems to care that Mazie Hirono lives in the 1st instead of HI-02.

• CO-04: Rep. Betsy Markey is near the top of most people’s vulnerable Dems lists, especially after her pro-HCR vote, but her cash haul may go along way toward allaying fears. She pulled in $505K, with $355K of that coming between Mar. 21 (the HCR vote) and Mar. 31. Her vote (plus being in Sarah Palin’s sorta-metaphorical crosshairs) seems to have helped, not hurt. Likely GOP opponent Cory Gardner raised only $75K last quarter after the HCR vote.

• ND-AL: One GOPer who is doing well on the fundraising front is state Rep. Rick Berg, who pulled in $483K in the first quarter. $330K of that came in the last 10 days of the quarter, although that seems to have more to do with his winning the state party’s endorsement rather than the HCR vote. Most of the rest of that took the form of $100K from his own pocket. Between this and the downdraft from John Hoeven at the top of the ballot, looks like Rep. Earl Pomeroy’s in for a real race this year.

• PA-06: Doug Pike picked up another labor endorsement, and it’s a big one: the AFL-CIO. They also backed Paul Kanjorski in the 11th, who’s being challenged by Corey O’Brien in the primary.

• RI-01: Here’s one more huge House Democratic fundraising haul, although this isn’t a race that the DCCC has been sweating too hard. Providence mayor David Cicilline pulled in a huge $725K (although some of that was checks re-written away from his mayoral fund to his newly-established House fund). His main Democratic rival, former state party chair William Lynch, raised $230K (including $100K of his own money).

• TX-17: Bill Flores pulled in an endorsement that will help in his GOP primary runoff against Rob Curnock, from perhaps the most unlikable man in the entirety of American politics, ex-Sen. Phil Gramm. In fact, that district may be conservative enough that it might still be a positive in the general.

• LA-LG: Republican SoS Jay Dardenne’s plan for an easy upgrade to the position of Lt. Governor (left vacant by Mitch Landrieu’s move to mayor of New Orleans) ran into a bit of a snag. He’s facing GOP primary opposition now from the state GOP chair, Roger Villere.

• CA-Init: Proposition 15 looks to be the only interesting initiative on the June primary ballot in California, and it lays some important groundwork for countering the flood of corporate money into elections. The Fair Elections Act, as it’s called, is a pilot program for public financing of state races; if passed, it’ll publicly fund the 2014 and 2018 Secretary of State races, which, if successful, could lead to a broader system.

• Fundraising: There are a number of other fundraising roundups today, courtesy of National Journal’s Reid Wilson and also the crew at TPM. Other highlights include Tom Campbell, Pat Toomey, Bob Dold!, Colleen Hanabusa, Bruce O’Donoghue, and various OR-Gov contestants.

• Teabaggers: Ed Kilgore continues his hot streak of dismantling the myth of the teabaggers, pointing to today’s Gallup/USA Today poll as more evidence that they’re nothing more than louder, angrier Republicans (who’d like access to a time machine). Only 7% say they’re Democrats, and while many say they’re independents, all evidence suggests they’re not from the center but those indies who think the GOP is too establishment, too liberal, or just too unsalvageable.

• RNC: You might remember several weeks ago the RNC lost a case in the D.C. District Court, squelching their desires for unlimited “soft money” contributions, which they felt they should be able to do in the wake of Citizens United. The RNC has decided to go ahead and appeal the case to the Supreme Court, although it doesn’t seem likely it’ll be decided in time for this year’s general election. (If you’re wondering why the case is bypassing the DC Circuit, McCain-Feingold allows challenges to it to leapfrog directly from the trial level to SCOTUS.)

• Census: Here’s an interesting tidbit: despite her early anti-Census fearmongering, Michele Bachmann’s district is actually well outpacing much of the nation on Census form return rates. Counties in her district have had an especially high return rate, ranging from 68-71% (compared with the current national average of 50%). Perhaps Republicans have decided it’s better in the long-term to, y’know, get conservative parts of the country to get accurately represented, rather than to try to appeal to the black-helicopters fringes, if Karl Rove cutting an ad urging Census participation is any indication.

• O2B: Finally, over at the Great Orange Satan, there’s an open call for nominations for the Orange to Blue program. Stop by and suggest some names of candidates who should get the netroots’ financial help this year.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/29-31, likely voters):

John McCain (R-inc): 52

J.D. Hayworth (R): 37

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±5%)

Bruce Babbitt (D): 42

John McCain (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 10

Gabrielle Giffords (D): 34

John McCain (R-inc): 53

Undecided: 13

Rodney Glassman (D): 33

John McCain (R-inc): 52

Undecided: 15

Nan Stockholm Walden (D): 21

John McCain (R-inc): 57

Undecided: 22

Bruce Babbitt (D): 42

J.D. Hayworth (R): 43

Undecided: 15

Gabrielle Giffords (D): 36

J.D. Hayworth (R): 49

Undecided: 15

Rodney Glassman (D): 37

J.D. Hayworth (R): 48

Undecided: 15

Nan Stockholm Walden (D): 22

J.D. Hayworth (R): 53

Undecided: 25

(MoE: ±4%)

Steve Singiser already got there first with the “good news! for John McCain!” joke, so I suppose I’ll just play it straight. McMaverick is not only leading all Democratic opposition in the general election, but also defeating right-wing insurgent ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth in the primary by a 15-point margin (some other pollsters have shown it a closer race, in the 10-point ballpark).

Democrats have been increasingly intrigued by this race, out of the possibility that they might have a shot here if the odious Hayworth somehow wins the primary. This poll shows that Hayworth still wins the general (even against ex-Gov. and ex-Interior Sec. Bruce Babbitt, probably the state’s most prominent Dem and not one who’s expressed any interest in returning to electoral politics), but Dems do poll much better against him. Most notably, their likeliest nominee, young Tucson city councilor Rodney Glassman, loses to McCain by 19 to McCain but 11 to Hayworth. Glassman also fares slightly better than Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, so this should hopefully disabuse everyone of the idea that she should run (and thus open up her competitive seat in AZ-08).

Glassman still faces a possible primary against businesswoman and Democratic party insider Nan Stockholm Walden, who’s scoping out the race; Walden doesn’t fare well, but that’s because she’s virtually unknown, even compared with the little-known Glassman (her favorables are 11/3, while Glassman’s at 23/15… compare that with John McCain, at 47/46, with only 7% with no opinion).

RaceTracker Wiki: AZ-Sen

The South Gulf Coast consists of Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi.  50 years ago, the Democrats had a virtual monopoly within this region.  Republicans, for the most part, had no strength at all and were lucky to hold a token seat or two within Congress.  Not any more.  While the Democrats have a strong presence in local races, and the Dems control the Alabama, Mississipi, and Louisiana legislatures, the Republicans now have a solid upper hand on a National level.

US House Representation Realignment

After the 1960 general election, the Democrats had approximately 60% of all house seats (and 64 of the 100 senate seats).  I have inserted below the results of certain general elections.

1960 44(D), 1(R)

1962 42(D), 2(R)

1964 38(D), 6(R)

1970 38(D), 6(R)

1972 34(D), 10(R)

1974 34(D), 10(R)

1978 32(D), 12(R)

1980 32(D), 12(R)

1982 36(D), 11(R)

1984 31(D), 16(R)

1990 33(D), 14(R)

1994 31(D), 18(R)

1996 23(D), 26(R)

2002 24(D), 26(R)

2004 17(D), 33(R)

2006 19(D), 31(R)

2008 19(D), 31(R)

50 years ago, this region had one Republican representative (Bruce Alger, who was subsequently defeated in 1964).  Another Texan joined the Republican Caucus in 1962 (Ed Foreman, whose claim to fame is that he represented Texas for 2 years and then was elected as a Congresman representing New Mexico in 1968).  In 1964, with a backlash from the Civil Rights Act of 1964, Alabama elected 5 Republicans and Mississipi elected 1 Republican.  By 1970, this region still had a split of 38 Democrats, 1 Republican.  Slowly but surely, many of the former conservative Democrats switched party affiliations (Lott and Cochran of MS, for examples) to the Republicans, attracting more voters to the Republican movement.  By 1972, the Republicans reached double digits in this region.  Watergate had no bearing on the 1974 election, probably because the region’s shift to the Republicans offset any damage created from this scandal.  By 1978, the Republicans had 12 reps, but the Republicans didn’t ride the Reagan coatails from the 1980 election.  It wasn’t until 1984 that the Republicans capitalized on the Reagan revolution.  Starting in 1990, the Democrats still had considerable control of this region.  Although the Republicans were able to pick off a big Texan named Jack Brooks, the Demcrats still had a 31-18 advantage.  Starting around 1995, this region saw several Democrats swtiched to the Republican side (Mike Parker, MS-04, Billy Tauzin, LA-03, Jimmy Hayes, LA-07, Greg Laughin, TX-14).  After the 1996 election, the Republicans had a 26-23 advantage.  By 2004, with the infamous Texas redistricting, the Republicans capitalized and had a 33-17 advantage.  Today, the Republicans have a 32-18 advantage since Parker Griffith left our party.

US Senate Representation Realignment

1960 8(D), 0(R)

1962 7(D), 1(R)

1964 7(D), 1(R)

1970 7(D), 1(R)

1972 7(D), 1(R)

1974 7(D), 1(R)

1978 6(D), 2(R)

1980 5(D), 3(R)

1982 5(D), 3(R)

1984 5(D), 3(R)

1990 5(D), 3(R)

1994 4(D), 4(R)

1996 2(D), 6(R)

2002 2(D), 6(R)

2004 1(D), 7(R)

2006 1(D), 7(R)

2008 1(D), 7(R)

50 years ago the Democrats controlled all 8 senate seats in this region.  John Tower won a special election in 1962 to take LBJ’s former senate seat, but for the next decade they couldn’t pick up another seat.  Thad Cochran won a MS Senate seat in 1978, and then Alabama elected Denton to a Senate seat in 1980 (only to lose reelection to Richard Shelby in 1986, who would later be a turncoat).  By 1990, MS had to Republican Senators, and Texas had 1 (Phil Gramm).  The Democrats lost another seat in 1993 (special election for Bentsen’s TX seat, won by Kay Bailey Hutchison).  By 1996, Alabama joined LA and MS in having 2 Republican Senators with the election of Jeff Sessions plus Richard Shelby changing party affiliation.  Louisiana elected David “Diaper” Vitter in 2004.  Currently, the Democrats have one Senator in this region (Mary Landrieu, a conservative Democrat).

Conclusions

This region has always had a conservative leaning.  50 years ago, the conservative Democrat ruled this region, and only a handful of moderate, progressive Democrats were in the mix.  The Civil Rights Act of 1964 probably was the beginning of a Republican tide in MS, AL, and LA.  Slowly but surely, many of these conservative Democrats joined the Republican party.  As recent as last year, we had Parker Griffith jump ship to the Republicans.  

I haven’t lost faith that we will continue to be decimated in this region.  Alabama, Mississipi, and Louisiana will remain strong Republican footholds, but there are areas within these states that will fully support a Blue Dog Democrat.  Also, these states have stagnant population growth, meaning that they will not be awarded new districts that will probably go to the Republicans.  Texas, OTOH, is a vastly growing state.  Much of the growth can be contributed to the growing Hispanic population that’s more willing to support Democrats over Republicans.  I anticipate that Texas will become much more Democratic-friendly in the next 20 years.

Welcome to the workin’ week!

FL-Sen: Rudy & Rubio, together at last. Giuliani will become the latest johnny-come-lately to endorse Marco.

GA-Sen: Johnny Isakson, who had been hospitalized twice in one week, is now back home.

KY-Sen: Weirdo Rand Paul is launching a 1,000-point ad buy (that’s big) attacking Trey Grayson as a pro-bailout insider too cozy with DC. The primary is about six weeks away. On the Dem side, The Lexington Herald-Leader reviewed state records and found that Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo has spent four times as much taxpayer money on travel, hotels and meals as AG Jack Conway. Mongiardo has also racked up expenses for the security detail that travels with him (Conway doesn’t have security).

NV-Sen: Jon Ralston says that federal investigators are looking to nail John Ensign for “structuring,” which is “a broad term that refers to the crime of creating financial transactions to evade reporting requirements.” Ensign, you’ll recall, had his parents give a $96,000 “gift” to his mistress instead of reporting it as a severance payment. The DoJ is moving very methodically, though, ever-mindful of the wretchedly botched prosecution of ex-Sen. Ted Stevens (which was thrown out on appeal due to prosecutorial misconduct.)

SD-Sen: Ugh. Not only did no Democrats file to run against John Thune, but he’s become the first senator in South Dakota history to run without major-party opposition. My advice to John Thune: Save your $6 million warchest for a 2012 presidential run.

UT-Sen: Sen. Bob Bennett and his Republican challengers faced off in a debate last Friday, which saw Bennett defend earmarks and get attacked for supporting an individual mandate to buy health insurance. The GOP state convention, which will choose a nominee, is May 8th.

AL-Gov: Hah – Artur Davis, fresh off his vote against healthcare reform, is now pushing a petition on his website attacking Alabama state legislators who voted to “obstruct” the new bill.

IA-Gov: Republican pollster Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies has a survey of the Iowa gubernatorial race, showing Terry Branstand crushing incumbent Dem Chet Culver 50 to 34. Culver leads Bob Vander Plaats 40-39 and Rod Roberts 38-32. It’s unclear to me whether Magellan was polling for fun or if this was on behalf of a client.

MA-Gov: Politico has a piece describing the extraordinary efforts Obama’s political team is making to help Gov. Deval Patrick win re-election. Patrick has visited the White House half a dozen times over the past year, and he’s the only office-seeker so far (other than Harry Reid) to have a fundraiser headlined by the president himself.

PA-Gov: The Philadelphia Daily News obtained an interesting strategy memo penned by the campaign of Dem Dan Onorato. Apparently, Onorato was prepared to challenge the signatures of opponents Joe Hoeffel and Anthony Williams. However, since Hoeffel didn’t move to challenge Williams’ signatures, Onorato’s campaign apparently decided it was better to leave both of them alone, figuring it would be better to have two candidates from the Philly region in the race rather than one. (Onorato hails from Western PA.)

UT-Gov: Salt Lake County Mayor and Dem gubernatorial candidate Peter Corroon says he raised more than $360,000 since the start of the year. No word yet on GOP Gov. Gary Herbert’s haul.

AL-03: Dems found someone to replace Josh Segall on the ballot at the last minute: Montgomery native Steve Segrest, who lost to GOPer Kay Ivey in the Treasurer’s race in 2006. Segrest comes from a political family: His father served in the Alabama House and his grandfather, Napoleon Broward, was elected governor… of Florida… in 1905. In some other Alabama news, state Sen. Jim Preuitt, who had long been on the outs with the Democrats, switched parties to the GOP.

FL-08: GOP Bruce O’Donoghue says he raised $300K since joining the race, and has a similar amount on hand. O’Donoghue’s camp says that this sum does not include any self-donations.

NH-01, NH-02: Dem Ann McLane Kuster, seeking Paul Hodes’ open seat in NH-02, says she raised $285K in Q1, and apparently has made a record haul from New Hampshire residents. Supposedly Katrina Swett will announce a bigger haul, but no numbers yet. Meanwhile, GOPer Frank Guinta, running in NH-01, supposedly raised $250K, including $100K of his own money. (Guinta’s fundraising had been pretty sucky prior to this.)

NY-19: The Republican field to take on Dem Rep. John Hall still seems very unsettled. Ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth has gotten a lot of love from the NRCC, but a broad swath of the GOP establishment in the 19th CD doesn’t seem to feel similarly, and she faces several strong opponents. One of them, former Pentagon analyst Kristia Cavere, says she raised $200K in Q1 & will soon convert her exploratory committee into the real thing. Meanwhile, ex-Tuxedo Mayor David McFadden says he’s raised about $100K. He also says that if he doesn’t win the party’s nomination at the May convention, he’ll drop out.

PA-07: Dem Bryan Lentz is challenging the validity of GOP opponent Pat Meehan’s signatures. As we noted previously, Lentz is also questioning the impartiality of the investigator, which happens to be Republican AG Tom Corbett’s office. Lentz now has a new arrow in his quiver: Some of the same people who circulated petitions for Meehan also did so for Corbett. Even better, it looks like some local GOP leaders may have signed false affidavits saying they personally gathered signatures, even though others may have actually carried the petitions.

SD-AL: Physician Kevin Weiland had planned to challenge Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in the Democratic primary after she voted “no” on healthcare. But Weiland pulled out at the last minute, after receiving calls from Steny Hoyer, and Chris Van Hollen. He also spoke with Herseth Sandlin herself, and reportedly “negotiated an assurance from Herseth Sandlin that she would reconnect with her Democratic base in South Dakota and never vote for a repeal of the health care plan.” Doesn’t sound like much. He also apparently cheesed off one-time Obama strategist Steve Hildebrand, who declined to run himself but worked overtime to help Weiland gather signatures (he only had a week in which to do it) to qualify for the ballot.

TN-06: Another veteran is entering this open-seat race on the Democratic side. Brett Carter, an attorney and TN National Guardsman who served in Iraq, joins Marine Capt. Ben Leming in the Dem field.

TN-08: Things are really starting to get hot in the GOP primary in Tennessee’s 8th CD. The Republican establishment isn’t just stumping for agribusiness magnate Steve Fincher – they’re actively attacking his opposition. Georgia Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, whose trip to Fincher’s district we noted in an earlier digest, slammed physician Ron Kirkland for allegedly being wobbly on the healthcare reform bill and for his past support of Democrats. (Kirkland previously said he liked most of what was in the bill, except for the public option – and when he was chair of the American Medical Group Association when they made donations to Max Baucus.) Kirkland is no random teabagger pushover, which is why he’s drawing fire. This could be an unusually interesting primary.

TX-17: The Texas Tribune takes a look at the two Republicans in a run-off for the privilege of facing Dem Chet Edwards in the fall: 2008 nominee Rob Curnock and oil exec Bill Flores. Here’s an interesting detail: Flores voted in the Democratic presidential primary in 2008, supposedly “casting his ballot against Barack Obama.” That’s some cute spin, but if he voted for Hillary Clinton (he won’t say), I don’t really see how that helps him. But in any event, Flores outraised Curnock by a huge margin, $214K to $16K, in newly-filed pre-runoff FEC reports.

WA-03: Ex-state Rep. Denny Heck (D) says he raised $350K in the first quarter (including $150K of his own money), leaving him with $530K on hand.

Census: There’s a bill pending in both houses of the NY state legislature that would require counting prison inmates as part of their home communities, rather than upstate, where most prisons are located. Given how dysfunctional the lege is, though, there’s no telling if this badly-needed reform will actually see the light of day.

Fundraising: GOP bigs are hitting the trail on behalf of their brethren during the congressional recess. John Boehner is helping Californians Mary Bono Mack and Ken Calvert, Pete Sessions is helping Illinoisans Randy Hultgren and Adam Kinzinger, and a bunch of other top Republicans are also putting their backs into things.

Redistricting: Former DCCC nat’l field director Casey O’Shea will replace Brian Smoot as head of the National Democratic Redistricting Trust. Smoot is leaving to head up the DSCC’s independent expenditure arm. (And O’Shea and Smoot are consulting partners.)

WATN: Dede Scozzafava says she’s working on a memoir about last year’s special election race. Can’t wait to read it! She also says she’s unsure about whether she’ll seek reelection to her seat in the Assembly this year.

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AL-Gov (3/29, likely voters):

Artur Davis (D): 33

Bradley Byrne (R): 50

Some other: 9

Not sure: 9

Artur Davis (D): 36

Kay Ivey (R): 43

Some other: 12

Not sure: 8

Artur Davis (D): 35

Tim James (R): 49

Some other: 10

Not sure: 7

Artur Davis (D): 44

Roy Moore (R): 40

Some other: 11

Not sure: 6

Ron Sparks (D): 33

Bradley Byrne (R): 43

Some other: 11

Not sure: 13

Ron Sparks (D): 33

Kay Ivey (R): 39

Some other: 15

Not sure: 13

Ron Sparks (D): 34

Tim James (R): 38

Some other: 13

Not sure: 14

Ron Sparks (D): 40

Roy Moore (R): 35

Some other: 15

Not sure: 10

(MoE: ±4.5%)

AL-Sen (3/29, likely voters):

William Barnes (D): 32

Richard Shelby (R): 59

Some other: 3

Not sure: 6

(MoE: ±4.5%)

AR-Sen (3/30, likely voters, 3/1 in parentheses):

Blanche Lincoln (D): 36 (39)

John Boozman (R): 51 (48)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 7 (7)

Blanche Lincoln (D): 36 (40)

Gilbert Baker (R): 51 (45)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 7 (8)

Blanche Lincoln (D): 35 (38)

Kim Hendren (R): 51 (43)

Some other: 5 (7)

Not sure: 8 (12)

Blanche Lincoln (D): 36 (41)

Curtis Coleman (R): 48 (43)

Some other: 7 (7)

Not sure: 8 (10)

Blanche Lincoln (D): 35 (38)

Jim Holt (R): 51 (45)

Some other: 7 (6)

Not sure: 7 (10)

Bill Halter (D): 34 (33)

John Boozman (R): 48 (55)

Some other: 8 (6)

Not sure: 11 (9)

Bill Halter (D): 36 (37)

Gilbert Baker (R): 44 (43)

Some other: 7 (5)

Not sure: 12 (13)

Bill Halter (D): 34 (35)

Kim Hendren (R): 42 (42)

Some other: 10 (7)

Not sure: 13 (15)

Bill Halter (D): 37 (35)

Curtis Coleman (R): 40 (38)

Some other: 10 (9)

Not sure: 13 (18)

Bill Halter (D): 34 (38)

Jim Holt (R): 43 (42)

Some other: 9 (8)

Not sure: 14 (12)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

FL-Gov (3/18, likely voters, 2/18 in parentheses):

Alex Sink (D): 36 (35)

Bill McCollum (R): 47 (48)

Some other: 5 (4)

Not sure: 12 (12)

(MoE: ±3%)

FL-Sen (3/18, likely voters, 2/18 in parentheses):

Kendrick Meek (D): 34 (32)

Charlie Crist (R): 45 (48)

Some other: 11 (11)

Not sure: 10 (9)

Kendrick Meek (D): 34 (31)

Marco Rubio (R): 48 (51)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 11 (11)

(MoE: ±3%)

HI-Gov (3/24, likely voters):

Neil Abercrombie (D): 54

Duke Aiona (R): 31

Some other: 6

Not sure: 9

Mufi Hannemann (D): 50

Duke Aiona (R): 29

Some other: 14

Not sure: 7

(MoE: ±4.5%)

HI-Sen (3/24, likely voters):

Dan Inouye (D): 65

Linda Lingle (R): 25

Some other: 3

Not sure: 6

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IA-Gov (3/17, likely voters, 2/18 in parentheses):

Chet Culver (D): 36 (37)

Terry Branstad (R): 52 (53)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 6 (4)

Chet Culver (D): 40 (40)

Bob Vander Plaats (R): 42 (46)

Some other: 8 (7)

Not sure: 11 (7)

Chet Culver (D): 40

Rod Roberts (R): 38

Some other: 10

Not sure: 13

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ID-Gov (3/23, likely voters):

Keith Allred (D): 28

Butch Otter (R): 60

Some other: 3

Not sure: 9

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ID-Sen (3/23, likely voters):

Generic Democrat (D): 28

Mike Crapo (R): 60

Some other: 3

Not sure: 9

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MI-Gov (D) (3/24, likely voters):

Andy Dillon (D): 12

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 10

Virg Bernero (D): 8

Some other: 17

Not sure: 53

(MoE: ±4%)

MI-Gov (R) (3/24, likely voters):

Peter Hoekstra (R): 27

Rick Snyder (R): 18

Mike Cox (R): 13

Mike Bouchard (R): 6

Some other: 5

Not sure: 32

(MoE: ±4%)

NC-Sen (3/22, likely voters, 2/23 in parentheses):

Elaine Marshall (D): 35 (34)

Richard Burr (R): 51 (50)

Some other: 6 (4)

Not sure: 8 (12)

Cal Cunningham (D): 32 (29)

Richard Burr (R): 51 (51)

Some other: 7 (6)

Not sure: 11 (14)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-AL (3/23-24, likely voters, 2/9-10 in parentheses):

Earl Pomeroy (D): 44 (40)

Rick Berg (R): 51 (46)

Some other: 1 (3)

Not sure: 4 (11)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-Sen (3/23-24, likely voters, 2/9-10 in parentheses):

Tracy Potter (D): 25 (17)

John Hoeven (R): 68 (71)

Some other: 2 (4)

Not sure: 5 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NM-Gov (3/24, likely voters):

Diane Denish (D): 51

Susana Martinez (R): 32

Some other: 7

Not sure: 10

Diane Denish (D): 52

Pete Domenici Jr. (R): 35

Some other: 6

Not sure: 6

Diane Denish (D): 45

Allen Weh (R): 35

Some other: 7

Not sure: 13

Diane Denish (D): 52

Janice Arnold-Jones (R): 30

Some other: 6

Not sure: 12

Diane Denish (D): 43

Doug Turner (R): 34

Some other: 7

Not sure: 16

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NY-Gov (3/29, likely voters, 3/1 in parentheses):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 52 (55)

Rick Lazio (R): 29 (30)

Some other: 6 (5)

Not sure: 13 (10)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 51 (56)

Carl Paladino (R): 28 (27)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 15 (11)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 50

Steve Levy (R): 26

Some other: 7

Not sure: 17

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Gov (3/30, likely voters, 3/4 in parentheses):

Ted Strickland (D): 45 (38)

John Kasich (R): 46 (49)

Some other: 2 (6)

Not sure: 7 (7)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Sen (3/30, likely voters, 3/4 in parentheses):

Lee Fisher (D): 38 (39)

Rob Portman (R): 43 (44)

Some other: 4 (5)

Not sure: 14 (12)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 38 (37)

Rob Portman (R): 45 (43)

Some other: 4 (6)

Not sure: 13 (15)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

RI-Gov (3/25, likely voters, 2/25 in parentheses):

Frank Caprio (D): 28 (27)

John Robitaille (R): 22 (19)

Lincoln Chafee (I): 39 (37)

Not sure: 11 (17)

Patrick Lynch (D): 22 (24)

John Robitaille (R): 26 (22)

Lincoln Chafee (I): 37 (38)

Not sure: 15 (16)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

SD-AL (3/25, likely voters, 2/23 in parentheses):

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D): 44 (45)

Chris Nelson (R): 42 (38)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 9 (11)

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D): 46 (49)

Kristi Noem (R): 35 (34)

Some other: 8 (4)

Not sure: 10 (13)

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D): 45 (51)

Blake Curd (R): 33 (33)

Some other: 8 (5)

Not sure: 14 (12)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

SD-Gov (3/25, likely voters, 2/23 in parentheses):

Scott Heidepriem (D): 32 (32)

Dennis Daugaard (R): 49 (41)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 13 (19)

Scott Heidepriem (D): 37 (34)

Dave Knudson (R): 32 (31)

Some other: 13 (13)

Not sure: 19 (22)

Scott Heidepriem (D): 39 (37)

Gordon Howie (R): 34 (29)

Some other: 9 (12)

Not sure: 17 (22)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

TN-Gov (3/22, likely voters):

Mike McWherter (D): 27

Bill Haslam (R): 45

Some other: 5

Not sure: 23

Mike McWherter (D): 29

Ron Ramsey (R): 43

Some other: 5

Not sure: 23

Mike McWherter (D): 31

Zach Wamp (R): 41

Some other: 7

Not sure: 22

Kim McMillan (D): 26

Bill Haslam (R): 46

Some other: 5

Not sure: 23

Kim McMillan (D): 25

Ron Ramsey (R): 43

Some other: 8

Not sure: 24

Kim McMillan (D): 29

Zach Wamp (R): 42

Some other: 5

Not sure: 25

(MoE: ±4.5%)

WY-Gov (3/25, likely voters):

Mike Massie (D): 25

Matt Mead (R): 43

Some other: 8

Not sure: 24

Mike Massie (D): 23

Ron Micheli (R): 45

Some other: 8

Not sure: 25

Mike Massie (D): 26

Rita Meyer (R): 43

Some other: 7

Not sure: 25

Mike Massie (D): 26

Colin Simpson (R): 41

Some other: 8

Not sure: 25

(MoE: ±4.5%)

By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

A few maps of Pennsylvania’s presidential elections are posted below, for your enjoyment. Each map comes with some brief analysis. Note how in each succeeding election, Democratic margins in the Philadelphia metropolis increase, while their margins in the Pittsburgh corridor decrease.

(Note: Because the Times stopped updating before all absentee/provisional ballots were counted, this map does not fully reflect the actual results. I have corrected the discrepancy.)

As the national tide increasingly turns in Senator Barack Obama’s favor, Senator John McCain mounts a quixotic attempt to win Pennsylvania. While Mr. McCain improves in the southeastern rustbelt, Democratic dominance in eastern Pennsylvania ensures a double-digit blue margin.

More below.

President George W. Bush mounts a determined attack on Pennsylvania, coming within 2.5% of Senator John Kerry. Mr. Bush does quite well in the traditionally Democratic Pittsburgh corridor and Republican strongholds throughout the “T.” But double-digit losses in Philadelphia’s suburbs (and a 400,000 vote deficit coming out of the city itself) prevent Mr. Bush from victory.

______________________________________________________

Without President Bubba holding the line, Republican margins in Pennsyltucky are much higher. Nevertheless, Al Gore closely carries Pennsylvania based on Democratic strongholds in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metropolises.

_____________________________________________________

With incumbent Bill Clinton poised to win comfortably weeks before election day, Senator Bob Dole does not seriously contest Pennsylvania. Democrats improve in the east and weaken in the west, while Mr. Clinton sails to a comfortable victory.

______________________________________________________

Governor Bill Clinton romps to a nine-point margin, following three straight Republican victories in the state. Mr. Clinton milks Democratic strength in the industrial southwest for everything it’s worth, winning 2-1 margins in a number of counties. More ominously for Republicans, President George H. W. Bush barely loses the Philadelphia suburbs – the first Republican to do so since Senator Barry Goldwater (and before him President William Taft, in 1912).

(Note: Credit goes to the NYT for these amazing images.)