Swing State Project

Research 2000 has an expansive new look at the Pennsylvania scene for the Great Orange Satan. Let’s pop open the hood.

First, PA-Sen (3/8-10, likely voters, 8/10-12/2009 in parens):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 51 (48)

Joe Sestak (D): 32 (33)

Undecided: 17 (19)

(MoE: ±5%)

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 47 (45)

Pat Toomey (R): 41 (40)

Joe Sestak (D): 39 (42)

Pat Toomey (R): 42 (41)

(MoE: ±4%)

PA-Gov (no trend lines):

Dan Onorato (D): 19

Joe Hoeffel (D): 12

Jack Wagner (D): 10

Anthony Williams (D): 3

Undecided: 56

(MoE: ±5%)

Dan Onorato (D): 34

Tom Corbett (R): 40

Joe Hoeffel (D): 31

Tom Corbett (R): 41

Jack Wagner (D): 32

Tom Corbett (R): 41

Anthony Williams (D): 19

Tom Corbett (R): 47

(MoE: ±4%)

All around, these numbers closely resemble Quinnipiac’s recent work in the state, making this the second recent poll suggesting that Specter can still win the general election. The only key difference is the slight advantage that Quinnipiac gives to Onorato relative to his gubernatorial primary-mates in the general election. Quinnipiac essentially found him in the same starting position as the likes of Hoeffel and Wagner.

A number of commentators have lamented increasing polarization in Washington. Conventional wisdom has it that America is as divided and partisan as it ever has been. Sectional divisions are tearing this country apart and preventing problems such as the deficit from being addressed; the differences between blue America and red America, in this view, are rapidly approaching crisis point.

There is some justice to this view. Polarization has probably increased, by a number of metrics, over the past few elections. Indeed, I previously noted something to this exact effect.

Let’s take another look, however, at the hypothesis, using a different type of measurement. Do blue states elect Republican representatives, and vice versa? In a polarized nation, this would probably not be the case.

Here is the House today:

Here is 1894:

As this stark contrast illustrates, perhaps polarization ain’t so bad as it used to be.

More below.

The 2008 image is a fascinating map in that it almost perfectly matches the 2008 electoral college. One sees the Republican corridor of strength in the South and Mountain West. Most of the map is blue since Democrats have a 255-178 majority, the result of two previous Democratic landslides.

Here is a map of a House with a Republican majority:

This House was the result of 2002 congressional elections. Republicans had done well in the wake of 9/11, and they had a 232-201 majority.

In the map there are relatively few states with 80-100% of representatives from one party. Blue states elect Republicans; red states elect Democrats. Moreover; for some states (e.g. Delaware, the Dakotas) it is mathematically impossible to be less than 100% Democratic or Republican.

Let’s move back several decades:

The date is 1960; President John Kennedy has just been elected. Democrats hold a 258-177 majority, almost identical to that today.

There are a lot more “one-party states” compared to the current map. Sectional division is far more pronounced; there is a line between North and South that simply does not exist in today’s House. In 1960 – especially in the still-standing Solid South – blue states generally did not elect Republicans, and vice versa.

Polarization grows even worse if one goes back further. Here is 2002, once again:

Here is 1894:

Republicans have just won 130(!) seats. They hold a 254 to 93 majority.

In this incredible map, there are only six states with congressional delegations less than 80-100% from one party. In it one can literally trace the battlefields of the Civil War.

This is real polarization, the results of a nation so divided it had literally torn itself in two. This is the type of polarization that results from scars so deep that they took more than a century to heal.

Perhaps today America is indeed growing more polarized, more divided into red states and blue states. But when one compares the present situation to past ones, there is literally no comparison. The United States has a long way to go before it gets as polarized as it did during the latter half of the 19th century.

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

• NV-Sen, NV-Gov: The filing period in Nevada is now open, and there was one more surprise credible entrant in the Republican field for the Senate race, attracted by the stink lines coming off of Harry Reid. Assemblyman Chad Christensen of suburban Las Vegas, who at one point was minority whip, decided to take the plunge. That takes the number of Republicans jostling to face Reid up to a whopping 10. In other filings news, New York investment banker John Chachas decided to follow through on his planned expensive run despite usually polling with 0%, and on the gubernatorial side, Jim Gibbons put to rest any retirement rumors by filing for re-election.

• NY-Sen-B: It looks like the GOP has managed to find another warm body to take on Kirsten Gillibrand. Ex-Rep. Joe DioGuardi, ousted by voters from Congress over 20 years ago and now a darling of the local teabaggers, says that he’ll enter the race. (JL) (Port Authority commissioner Bruce Blakeman is already in the race, and has gotten a lot of county-level endorsements, while the Beltway media is treating former Bush aide Dan Senor as their flavor of the day, seeing as how he’s a guy they’re all familiar with.)

• UT-Sen: The start of the Utah Republican caucus process is in just two weeks, and Utah’s GOP chair is busy telling outside groups to butt out, warning them that they risk a backlash for their negative campaigning. He’s referring to Club for Growth, who’ve been advertising and robocalling to attack incumbent Bob Bennett (although they aren’t endorsing a particular opponent).

• MI-Gov: Much has been made of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andy Dillon’s poor relations with organized labor, with the assumption that labor is now getting behind Lansing mayor Virg Bernero instead. However, Dillon managed to nail down at least one union endorsement, from the Michigan Building and Construction Trades Council.

• CO-07: He’d gotten Tom Tancredo’s endorsement, but that wasn’t enough to keep music promoter Jimmy Lakey in the race. Not having gotten much traction against Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier in the primary, he bailed out.

• IN-03: I’m not sure if that rumored teabagger challenge to Republican Rep. Mark Souder – near-legendary for his lackluster campaigning – from attorney and former Dick Lugar staffer Phil Troyer ever came to pass, but now it sounds like Souder is facing another challenge from the right (or at least from the land of the awake). Auto dealer Bob Thomas (a former head of the national Ford dealers association) is planning a run and expected to advance himself $500K to get things rolling. If he has two insurgent opponents, look for Souder to survive the split… but one well-financed one could give him fits.

• MA-10: I’m not sure that “top aide to Deval Patrick” is the thing you want on your resume right now, but Ted Carr is now considering a run for the open seat in the 10th in the Democratic primary (where he’d join state Sen. Robert O’Leary and Norfolk Co. DA William Keating). Carr is currently the director of the Massachusetts Office of International Trade and Investment and is also a selectman in Cohasset.

• NJ-07: Looks like Dems finally have a candidate nailed down in the 7th, although probably not one who’s going to put the contest against freshman Rep. Leonard Lance squarely on the map. The Union Co. Dems endorsed educator and former Hill aide Ed Potosnak for the race, and his principal rival, Zenon Christodoulou, vice-chair of the Somerset Co. Democrats, dropped out and endorsed Potosnak.

• NY-29: Here’s a big break for Corning mayor Tom Reed, and, in terms of avoiding a toxic split of the kind that’s sabotaged many a House special election for them, possibly for Republicans in general. Monroe Co. Executive Maggie Brooks has decided not to run in the special election to replace Eric Massa, whenever that might be held, which leaves Reed (who was running before Massa’s resignation) as the consensus choice. On the other hand, Brooks is probably better known than Reed and may also have better fundraising connections (on which front Reed has been lackluster so far), so she might have turned out to be a better bet for the GOP. The Dems still have nobody lined up, although several Assembly members have floated their names.

• PA-06: The Manan Trivedi Express keeps gaining steam, scoring a big endorsement last night from the Montgomery County Democratic Committee. Trivedi can place this endorsement in his back pocket — right alongside his endorsement from the Chester County Democrats last month. (The MontCo Dems also endorsed local fave Joe Hoeffel for Governor, and declined to endorse for Senate.) Meanwhile, The Hill notes that Trivedi’s primary opponent, the moneyed Doug Pike, is taking a “silence is best” approach on the topic of healthcare reform, refusing to respond to multiple requests for comment on the bill. (JL)

• DCCC: Barack Obama’s wading into the Congressional electoral fray on May 13, hosting a big-dollar fundraiser in New York hosted by the DCCC.

• CA-LG: State Sen. Dean Florez decided to jump out of the way of the Gavin Newsom juggernaut, ending his own Lt. Governor bid. It looks like the LG race will come down to Newsom vs. Los Angeles city councilor Janice Hahn.

• NY-St. Sen.: Here’s one of those polls that helps restore your faith in humanity. Ex-state Sen. Hiram Monserrate does not appear to be on track to win back the Senate seat he got expelled from after being convicted of assault, according to a new Siena poll of the SD-13 special election. Democratic Assemblyman Jose Peralta is polling at 60%, followed by Monserrate (now an independent) at 15, with Republican Robert Beltrani at 9. The election is scheduled for next Tuesday.

• Georgia: I can’t think of how to connect this story to national politics, but it’s certainly interesting just from the perspective of geographical geekery. Ever wonder about the strange shape of Fulton County, Georgia (which is kind of arrow-shaped, where the pointy part is a cluster of right-leaning mostly-white exurbs far to the north of Atlanta)? It turns out that Fulton County is a conglomerate of three former counties (Milton and Campbell), and now the Republicans in the state House are pushing legislation that would allow historic merged counties to reconstitute themselves. The racial undertone, of course, is that the wealthy exurbs of former Milton County (like Roswell and Alpharetta) would like to split off from mostly-black Fulton County… which would be a big hit on Fulton County’s property tax base, so Democrats are opposed. The plan may not succeed though, as it would require two-thirds of the legislature because it requires amending the state constitution.

• Humor: If you missed Scott Rasmussen’s appearance on the Colbert Report last night, check it out. The actual interview itself wasn’t revelatory, but the self-feeding sausage machine bit that precedes it is amazing.  

Public Policy Polling (3/5-8, registered voters, 8/14-16/2009 in parens):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 43

Jane Norton (R): 43

Undecided: 14

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 45

Tom Wiens (R): 37

Undecided: 18

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 46 (39)

Ken Buck (R): 36 (35)

Undecided: 14 (26)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 44

Jane Norton (R): 39

Undecided: 17

Andrew Romanoff (D): 44

Tom Wiens (R): 36

Undecided: 20

Andrew Romanoff (D): 45

Ken Buck (R): 34

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.1%)

The one saving grace for Bennet here is that, while he holds an unsurprisingly poor 32-46 approval rating, the GOP front-runner, Jane Norton, isn’t looking too great herself. Her favorable rating is 25-35, which is not something you usually see for relatively undefined challengers so early in the game.

These numbers also confirm what we’ve been seeing in other polls suggesting that Andrew Romanoff is in better shape for the general election than Bennet. Jensen has some good words of caution about reading too much into that, though:

I would be cautious about declaring Romanoff to be the more electable candidate based on these early numbers though. Bennet has had all the negatives of incumbency- being associated with an unpopular majority party during a recession- without the positives- defining himself positively to the voters on the airwaves in the context of a statewide campaign. If Romanoff is still doing better than Bennet four or five months from now once the voters have started really paying attention the electability argument might carry more heft.

KY-Sen: Mmm, I love a good R-on-R dogfight, especially when the less palatable Republican has the upper hand. Trey Grayson, way behind in the polls to insurgent nut-winger Rand Paul, is getting the “weirdo” meme started nice and early, planting the seed that will compromise Paul’s electability in a general election. In a new ad, Grayson accuses Paul of having “weird ideas” on foreign policy that include the shut-down of Guantanamo and the deportation of “Al-Qaeda terrorists back to their home countries”. Paul has fired back with an ad of his own, accusing Grayson of supporting Bill Clinton in the ’90s and — gasp! — “issuing a welcoming statement” to Barack Obama after his inauguration. (JL)

NY-Sen-B: This isn’t really new news, I guess, since his name had already been floated. But it looks like GOPers in NY and elsewhere are putting increased pressure on former deputy White House Press Secretary Dan Senor to jump into the race against Kirsten Gillibrand. Personally, I love the idea of a former Bushbot running statewide in NY.

NY-Gov: AG Andrew Cuomo wisely handed off his investigation of Gov. David Paterson’s alleged misdeeds to an independent counsel, in this case the universally respected former chief judge of the state of New York, Judith Kaye. Speaking of which, how come no one is talking impeachment? New York law provides for it, even if it hasn’t been done in a hundred years.

MN-06: Alert! Alert! Crazybomb set to detonate in Minnesota on April 7! Sarah Palin to stump for Michele Bachmann! TAKE COVER!!!

PA-12: Republican bigwigs have chosen businessman Tim Burns as their candidate over 2008 nominee and BMW Direct frontman Bill Russell. The final vote was 85 Burns, 46 Russell, leading Russell to proclaim that “the fix was in.” While Burns is likely the strong candidate, the good news for Dems is that Russell vows to fight on, insisting that “This is the Republican Party of PA, not the Communist Party of North Korea.” I love the smell of cat fud in the morning.

Polling: Nate Silver takes a look at the house effects of the five most prolific polling firms this cycle. (This includes blechy Internet pollster YouGov, though.) And here’s a bit of info that confirms something we probably all believed: Rasmussen, R2K and PPP account for two thirds of all public Senate polls conducted this cycle. I wish more pollsters (SUSA, for instance) would step up.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/8-10, likely voters, 8/9-12, 2009 in parentheses):

For CA-Gov:

Meg Whitman (R): 52 (24)

Steve Poizner (R): 19 (9)

Tom Campbell (R): NA (19)

(MoE: ±5.0%)

Jerry Brown (D): 45 (42)

Meg Whitman (R): 41 (36)

Jerry Brown (D): 48 (43)

Steve Poizner (R): 33 (34)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

In the Republican primary, both candidates are becoming better well known, though Tom Campbell’s exit from the Governor’s race seems to have benefited Meg Whitman quite a bit. Whitman seems to be going for the “moderate” mantle here, with Poizner running to her right.

Gov. Moonbeam continues to lead Whitman narrowly and Poizner by a somewhat larger margin. Poizner’s posturing may be hurting him in the general election though, as his favorables have moved from 35 to 37, while his unfavorables have jumped from 27 to 40, putting him in net negative territory. Poizner had been keeping pace with Indies at 36/35, but Brown’s taken the clear advantage, with Indies now breaking 46/30 in his favor.

Whitman has made herself better known, with “no opinion” of her down to 14 from 29; her favorables are now a solid 51/35 (up from 41/30). Brown’s also in net positive territory though, at a solid 52/40.

For CA-Sen:

Tom Campbell (R): 33 (NA)

Carly Fiorina (R): 24 (29)

Chuck DeVore (R): 7 (17)

(MoE: ±5.0%)

Barbara Boxer (D): 47

Tom Campbell (R): 43

Barbara Boxer (D): 49 (52)

Carly Fiorina (R): 40 (31)

Barbara Boxer (D): 49 (53)

Chuck DeVore (R): 39 (29)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

The biggest news in the primary is former 15th CD Rep. Tom Campbell’s entry into the race, where he’s leapfrogged into first place, with his gain coming at both Fiorina and DeVore’s expense.

Campbell – with his base in Santa Clara County – carries his strength to the general as well. Somewhat troubling for Dems is his strength among Independents, where he narrowly edges Boxer 45-43. Carlyfornia Dreamin has turned somewhat into the Pacific Coast Gaffeway recently, and it’s taking a toll on her favorables. Fiorina was already in negative territory at 22/29 in August, but she’s not exactly winning people over. She’s added +13 to her favorables, but +14 to her unfavorables.

Chuck DeVore continues to be a non-factor in the general, he’s also in net negative territory at 34/42. If by some miracle he pulls it out of the primary, I think we’ll be looking at something similar to Boxer-Jones in 2004.

Barbara Boxer’s favorables aren’t the best at 50/45, but that’s more than Carly or Chuck can claim. DiFi’s not doing much better though, at 49/44, though Obama remains popular at 60/32 (which is probably keeping has national approval from dropping into the 40’s).

RaceTracker Wiki: CA-Gov | CA-Sen

• CO-Sen: Gee, tell us what you really think, Jane Norton! The supposed front-runner for the GOP nod just referred to Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme” while appearing at a teabagger forum. I’m sure the 600,000 or so Coloradans who receive Social Security will be glad to hear that.

• FL-Sen: PPP’s Tom Jensen has some observations on the Florida race, that also seem generalizable to the national landscape and pretty much every other race. Very few people are changing their minds between the parties, he finds: only 8% of Obama voters plan to vote for Marco Rubio, actually lower than the 11% of McCain voters planning to vote for Kendrick Meek. The difference is in the intensity between the parties, which shapes the likely voter model. Barack Obama won Florida by 3, while PPP’s sample went for McCain by 4; that 7-point shift is similar to what they found in New Jersey and Massachusetts as well.

• OH-Sen: We’re very short on details, but Chris Cillizza is pointing to a DSCC poll (taken by Mark Mellman) finding Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leading GOP ex-Rep. Rob Portman 37-36 in the Senate race. (There’s no mention of primary numbers or a Jennifer Brunner matchup.) We’ll fill in the blanks more if we see a copy of the memo.

• MI-Gov: Michigan-based pollster Denno-Noor takes another look at the primaries in the Michigan governor’s race. On the GOP side, Rep. Peter Hoekstra leads at 28% (up from 21 in November), followed by self-proclaimed nerd Rick Snyder at 18 (up from 5). This poll confirms the most recent EPIC-MRA poll’s finding of Snyder’s advertising-based surge, and the subsequent decline for AG Mike Cox. He’s at 12 in this poll, down from 15. Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard is at 8, and state Sen. Tom George is at 2. On the Democratic side, they find a lot of uncertainty: state House speaker Andy Dillon leads Lansing mayor Virg Bernero 13-11, with 6% each for state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith and for Dan Kildee, who has since dropped out (although he was in the race while the poll was in the field). Undecided wins, at 56%. There are no trendlines on the Dem side, given the dropout of Lt. Gov. John Cherry since the last poll. (Speaking of Cherry, there are odd rumors out there that unions are asking the woeful Cherry to get back into the race, which doesn’t jibe with the UAW’s recent decision to back Bernero.)

• NY-Gov: This is what passes for a good news day for David Paterson: the growing likelihood that he won’t face any criminal charges over allegations of witness tampering in the domestic violence investigation involving a top aide. On the GOP side, ex-Rep. Rick Lazio rolled out one more endorsement from the party’s old war horses as party bosses keep looking elsewhere for a suitable candidate; today, it was Rep. Peter King‘s turn to give Lazio the thumbs-up.

• PA-Gov: More progress on the endorsements front in the fight for the Democratic nomination. Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato got the endorsement of the state’s largest teachers union, the Pennsylvania State Education Association. Meanwhile, Auditor Jack Wagner continued to dominate in terms of endorsements from county-level party apparatuses, getting the endorsement in Schuylkill County, out in coal country.

• MI-13: This isn’t a good day for Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick. She and one of her aides just got subpoenaed by a federal grand jury, in the investigation into her son, former Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. On top of that, state Sen. Hansen Clarke made official his primary challenge to Kilpatrick. She barely survived the Democratic primary in 2008, and that was largely because of a split among several challengers.

• NY-23: Doug Hoffman is making a move… to the 23rd District, where he plans to run again. One knock against Hoffman last year was that he lived in Lake Placid, which is outside the district. He’s moving nine miles down the road to Saranac Lake, which falls in the 23rd’s lines.

• PA-07: With filing day having passed in Pennsylvania, now it’s time to count the signatures, and one candidates who’s running into some trouble is a surprise: the squeaky-clean former US Attorney Pat Meehan, the Republican running in the 7th. He’s asked the Delaware County DA to investigate his own signatures, after finding about some potentially fraudulent signatures on his lists. Meanwhile, Meehan seems to have dodged a long-rumored primary challenge from former TV news reporter Dawn Stensland, who never filed to run.

• CA-LG: San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom looks like he’s going to go ahead and voluntarily demote himself to the no-man’s land that is Lt. Governor. He paid his filing fee yesterday, and will have an official kickoff for his campaign either today or tomorrow.

• Demographics: Alan Abramowitz has a very interesting piece on demographic change and how it only bodes ill for Republicans (or at least the current angry-white-guy version of the Republicans) in the long run. That angry white base keeps shrinking as a percentage of the population, with non-whites on track to be 35% of the electorate by 2020.

• Branding: With his presidential run (and its ubiquitous star and blue background) fading in the rear-view mirror, John McCain has launched a completely new logo to go with his new persona. It has a flowing flag instead, on a background that’s much… um… whiter.

Texas redistricting is the big prize on offer in 2010 state elections. Both sides have strong motives to want control, quite aside from the fact that it’s got 32 seats already and will probably have 36 next time round. Democrats, still smarting from Tom DeLay’s mid-decade shenanigans, would love to control the maps, allowing them to take advantage of rapid Hispanic growth and perhaps to draw a district for a longtime conservative state legislator who can scrabble out enough of a foothold to keep himself afloat with rural whites for another few years.

Republicans want to maintain their huge edge and to fix elements of the Delaymander that are falling apart – districts like TX-32 and TX-10 where a changing population will draw the ground out from under the Republicans by 2020. They also don’t want to see a return to the 1991 Democratic gerrymander.

My impression is that Republicans have the edge, so I’ve drawn a gerrymander for them. However, with Democrats controlling the Justice Department, minority rights will have to be respected. Texas Republicans cannot just draw four new districts for white Anglos, or the map will be thrown out.

Dave’s Redistricting App estimates Texas’ population as being 54% white, 11% black, 4% Asian and 31% Hispanic.

That ought to shake out to four black-majority districts, but the population just isn’t packed enough for that to be possible. I’ve kept the three districts that are already designed to elect black representatives, although they’re all black-plurality rather than black-majority. Two are at 47% black and are fairly safe, whilst the other is 38% black and may be Hispanic-plurality by 2020. That said, it’ll still probably elect a black representative from there for years afterward.

You can’t draw an Asian district, although in Houston an Asian-influence district might just be possibility come 2020. That leaves us with Texas’ 7.8m Hispanics. That ought to equate to 11 Hispanic-majority districts. I tried to do that and preserve a GOP gerrymander, but the numbers aren’t quite there. Instead I got 10 and an Austin district, where Doggett could easily be succeeded by a Hispanic.

In the meantime, I think I preserved a GOP gerrymander fairly well. There are 24 districts McCain won and in 20 of those he got 60% of the vote or more. In only one Republican did McCain get less than 58% of the vote.

[Map]

West Texas

TX-01 – blue

[Demographics]

Obama: 65 McCain: 34

Likely candidate: Silvestre Reyes

First things first: yes, I’ve renumbered the districts. This is partly because I started in west Texas, headed east to the sea then spiralled clockwise round the state, finishing in the Houston suburbs and was too lazy to swap the colours later. But it’s also partly because there’s almost no rime nor reason to Texas’ current numbering system, so I don’t see the urgent need to change.

Reyes’ district shrinks slightly as El Paso grows. The district gets negligibly less Democratic, but I don’t think he’s going to be quaking in his boots.

TX-02 – dark green

[Demographics]

Obama: 62 McCain: 37

Likely candidates: Henry Cuellar, Ciro Rodriguez (?)

This district covers the Mexican border from El Paso to Zapata county and clocks in at a hefty 81% Hispanic. It looks an awful lot like Ciro Rodriguez’s current district, only straying into some south-eastern (and not entirely Hispanic) outskirts of San Antonio.

On the flipside, it now contains Laredo. Cuellar won the last primary, and as the Democratic primary will be the decider, I wouldn’t bet against Republicans crossing over to support him. I’m not even certain whether Ciro lives in this district, but either way he might consider running in the new third instead, except for one thing…

TX-03 – dark purple

[Demographics]

Obama: 38 McCain: 61

Likely candidates: Mike Conaway (?), Ciro Rodriguez (?), Henry Bonilla (?)

Democrats have always been keen on the idea of a Hispanic-majority West Texas seat. This seat gives it to them, just, but in a form they can’t win. The core of the old 11th around Midland is here, but rather than taking in San Angelo and the Hill Country, the district instead dives south-east to take in central San Antonio.

Although Hispanics make up 50% of the district’s population, many of them can’t vote (and plenty of the more rural ones are quite conservative) so McCain beat Obama by 50,000 votes here.

The flip-side of this is that the district is guaranteed to swing left, as rural west Texas depopulates and Hispanics become eligible to vote. Right now around 40% of the district’s inhabitants (and 60% of its Hispanics) live within Bexar county.

Given that trend, Conaway might decide to give the new 3rd a miss and move to the 10th, which northern bits of Midland protrude into. Who could step into the breach for the GOP? A Hispanic candidate would help, although primary voters might not warm to him. How about Henry Bonilla?

TX-09 – light blue

[Demographics]

Obama: 39 McCain: 60

Likely candidates: ?

This is essentially a Hill Country and Colorado River watershed district. A few almost uninhabited counties aside, the district is anchored in the west by San Angelo and bits of Austin and its suburbs in the east.

The rest of the district is largely rural, with Brady probably the largest town outside Travis and Tom Green counties. I’m not sure who the GOP would pick to run here, but I’d put good money he’d try to grab a seat on the agriculture committee.

TX-10 – magenta

[Demographics]

Obama: 34 McCain: 65

Likely candidates: Mike Conaway (?), Chet Edwards (?)

Now that Charles Stenholm is busy with lobbying, there’s much less need for Republicans to draw three blood-red districts in west and north-west Texas. Instead I’ve created a series of strips heading east-west and reaching into Central Texas in an attempt to combine ultra-Republican West Texas with very Republican Central Texas.

This district is a two county tall line through West Texas, taking in north Midland, Big Spring, Sweetwater and Abilene amongst others before abruptly turning south-east. From there it extends just far enough to take in Killeen and half of Waco.

If Mike Conaway decides he’s too crazy to feel safe representing a majority-Hispanic district, he might run here. Otherwise there are plenty of local legislators willing to step up. The district contains 170,000 (mostly Democratic) voters from Bell County, 130,000 from McLennan County and 110,000 from Abilene. So whether the primary winner would be from Killeen, Waco, Abilene or even somewhere further west is an open question.

Either way, I can’t see Chet Edwards running here. Depending on which side of Waco he lives on he might be resident here and he’d like to represent Fort Hood again, but the only bit shared between this district and the current TX-17 is western McLennan county. He won’t want a district that borders New Mexico.

South Texas

TX-04 – red

[Demographics]

Obama: 69 McCain: 31

Likely candidates: Ruben Hinojosa

McAllen is big enough for its own district now. I made up the numbers with south-eastern Hidalgo county, including Hinojosa’s hometown of Mercedes.

At 88% Hispanic, almost certainly the US’ most Hispanic district.

TX-05 – yellow

[Demographics]

Obama: 63 McCain: 36

Likely candidates: ?

An amalgam of the current 28th, 27th and 15th districts, this district takes in Brownsville, Herlingen, Kingsville and a lot of thinly populated rural areas. No current representative lives here, although Solomon Ortiz might move if he doesn’t like the 6th. Either way, he’ll surely face a primary from a local boy.

TX-06 – teal

[Demographics]

Obama: 44 McCain: 55

Likely candidate: Solomon Ortiz

This district begins near Corpus Christi and continues along the coast as far as Jackson and Calhoun counties. To this it adds a fairly Hispanic hinterland of counties a little further inland. So far, so understandable.

However, it then sends a dogleg north-east to pick up enough of southern Bexar county (including south-central San Antonio) to make it Hispanic-majority.

I tried to clean up the dogleg both to improve Republican prospects and to make it look less like an obvious gerrymander, but it can’t really be hidden.

At 54% Hispanic it’s less vulnerable on voting rights grounds than the 3rd, but if Solomon Ortiz runs here expect him to involve the courts.

Either way, of course, Republicans will be finding it difficult by 2020, especially if they’re still chasing the nativist vote. Still, this could be a pick-up in 2012 with a decent candidate.

[San Antonio map]

TX-07 – grey

[Demographics]

Obama: 58 McCain: 41

Likely candidate: Charlie Gonzalez

This district isn’t radically changed from the old TX-20. It continues to be a metro San Antonio district with a Hispanic majority, although not as much of one now that so many other districts have taken bites out of the city.

Still, at 54% Hispanic I don’t see Gonzalez having too many problems winning re-election.

TX-08 – light purple

[Demographics]

Obama: 44 McCain: 55

Likely candidate: Lamar Smith

The northern bits of the old TX-21 are removed for this district so that it’s made up of majority white sections of northern San Antonio as well as western Guadalupe county and the counties north of Bexar.

Smith might be in trouble if Hispanics if northern San Antonio rapidly gets more liberal or more Hispanic, but as the district is at 63% McCain right now he ought to be able hold them off for a few years yet.

North Texas

TX-11 – light green

[Demographics]

Obama: 29 McCain: 70

Likely candidate: Randy Neugebauer, Chet Edwards (?)

Now that Charlie Stenholm is no more, you could make Neugebauer’s turf into a more reasonably shaped district. Or you could just use it to annoy Chet Edwards. Guess what I did?

This district begins in the Llano Estocado around Lubbock and heads east along county lines until it hits the Metroplex exurbs. It extends as far as Mineral Wells but afterwards turns south and south-east, shadowing my TX-10. It gets as far as McLennan County, taking in eastern Waco, before the district reaches its population complement.

This district is more like Chet Edwards’ than TX-10. It includes around 180,000 of his current constituents and all or part of four counties he represents (Hood, Somervell, Bosquet and McLennan). On the other hand, 75% of the district is new, it voted for McCain by forty points, it borders New Mexico and he may not even live here. If he runs here, he’s a brave man.

TX-12 – metallic blue

[Demographics]

Obama: 24 McCain: 75

Likely candidate: Mac Thornberry

I really tried to minimise the pain amongst Texas Republicans by spreading it evenly. That’s very difficult to do with TX-12.

Any district beginning in the Panhandle has a long way to go before it hits an area of demographic strength. What’s more, it has to go through the northern exurbs of the Metroplex, which are solidly Republican and heavily populated.

If I’d gerrymandered a little harder, I could have got this district to Fort Worth. But even then, it’d still be a 70% McCain district, so why bother?

Instead I just chucked all the Panhandle into the district then marched the district along the counties bordering Oklahoma, before turning south to pick up northern bits of Denton County.

TX-13 – terracotta

[Demographics]

Obama: 38 McCain: 61

Likely candidate: Kay Granger (?)

Whilst Kay Granger could run here, she’d work just as well in TX-23 (although it is slightly more marginal) and has no pressing need to move. It’s more likely that this will be filled by new blood. Whether it’s a hard-right suburbanite or a a hard-right exurbanite is the major question here.

Arguably this isn’t a North Texas district but a DFW district. Whilst the bulk of its geographical area is made up two counties west (Park and Wise) and two south (Hill and Johnson) of the metroplex, it sends an arm into Tarrant County, picking up south-eastern Fort Worth and central Arlington. Nearly half of the district lives in this arm.

Yet whilst the 325,000 people within Tarrant County in the district are only 45% white and voted for Obama 58-41, the rest of the district is 85% white and went for McCain 75-24. So long as the margin in the rural/exurban sections remains so lopsided, this’ll stay safely Republican and it’ll behave like a North Texas district.

If the Tarrant County section starts to dominate or if the outlying areas start to moderate, things will get closer. But even if it’s looking a bit ropy come 2020, it’ll likely take a wave year to flip it.

Incidentally, Chet Edwards currently represents the two southern counties of this district. However, I can’t see him running here because a) he doesn’t live here and b) I’m not convinced he’d win the primary. He currently represents less than 30% of the district’s residents and those two counties have less than 20% of TX-13’s Democrats. I just can’t see black and Latino voters in Fort Worth and Arlington (who’ll likely be decisive in the Democratic parimary) deciding that the representative they really need is a conservative white guy from central Texas.

DFW Metroplex

[map]

TX-14 – greenish brown

[Demographics]

Obama: 38 McCain: 61

Likely candidate: Michael Burgess

Population growth shrinks this county heavily. The old TX-26 gives up its portion of Tarrant County, splitting it beween TX-13, TX-21 and TX-23, and its spur into Cooke county joins north Denton in TX-12.

On the other hand, it takes over south-east Denton from the old TX-24 and extends across the border into Collin County, picking up Frisco and the eastern fringes of McKinney.

Burgess’ margins improve 6 points net from 58-41.

TX-15 – orange

[Demographics]

Obama: 37 McCain: 61

Likely candidate: Sam Johnson

TX-15 could be entirely confined to Collin County, but I’ve decided not to so as to give myself a little more freedom.

Which is not to say that it’s not a Collin County district – the Dallas County part of the district contains less than 4% of its inhabitants. More specifically, it’s a Plano-McKinney district, and around 9 points more Republican net.

TX-17 – dark blue

[Demographics]

Obama: 61 McCain: 38

Likely candidate: Pete Sessions (?)

No, this isn’t really Pete Sessions’ intended district, but it might be the one where he actually lives, as I can’t work out which bit of Dallas he lives in. If Pete can win a district that’s only 30% white, then I’m a gazebo. If he lives here, he’ll move, probably to TX-20. That said, TX-20 is probably more likely to include his home anyway.

(Yes, I did draw these districts before checking where each incumbent lives. Nevertheless, in general I got away with it – DFW is a slight exception and even there it’s clearable.)

As it is, this is the Metroplex’s new Hispanic district. I have no idea who the likely new incumbent would be here.

TX-18 – slightly pale yellow

[Demographics]

Obama: 79 McCain: 20

Likely candidate: Eddie Bernice Johnson

The basic shape of the district isn’t changed enormously and it remains a plurality-black district. In fact, it’s now blacker than it used to be, up from 42%. That said, I couldn’t find any way of getting to 50%.

TX-19 – grassy green

[Demographics]

Obama: 39 McCain: 60

Likely candidates: Joe Barton, Chet Edwards (?)

This district begins in south-western Tarrant and south-eastern Dallas county, but only to absorb swing whites in the area within a much redder district. From there’s it’s a long strip south-south-east through Barton’s base in Ennis county, Navarro, Limestone, Freestone, Roberton and north Brazos (including Bryan and College Station).

This isn’t wildly dissimilar to Barton’s current district, which differs mostly in that it turns east at Freestone and in that it includes more of the Metroplex.

If Chet Edwards doesn’t require, here’s probably his best bet to challenge, as the southern half of the district is pretty familiar to him. That said, Barton is pretty well-embedded in the district and we can’t assume Edwards will win any district just because it’s slightly less Republican than his current one.

TX-20 – salmon pink

[Demographics]

Obama: 41 McCain: 58

Likely candidates: Pete Sessions, Ralph Hall

There was no active need to screw Ralph Hall over in this map, but I don’t think that’s inherently unlikely in a Republican gerrymander. There are several reasons for this.

Firstly, he’s 86 and plenty of ambitious state legislators in North-East Texas would like to see him retire so they can replace him. Secondly, his committee assignments aren’t crucial to Texas – his seniority on Energy and Commerce is considerable, but Joe Barton is already ranking member and is 26 years younger, whilst Science and Technology is a relatively minor committee with a lot of Texas Republicans on it, including Lamar Smith as the third in seniority. Thirdly, Hall used to be a Democrat and whilst he’s effectively been a Republican since he joined Congress, he’s still not the member they most want to protect.

None of this means he will be drawn out of his district. Rockwall County could join the new TX-16, although it’d require a lot of shifting around amongst the DFW districts. Nevertheless, it’s questionable whether Hall will be running for re-election in 2012, so I’ve drawn Rockwall into the new TX-20.

The rest of the district is made up of northern and north-eastern Dallas County, including Richardson, Rowlett, Addison, University Park, Highland Park, bits of Garland and much of north Dallas. A lot of this is already represented by Pete Sessions and whilst a district extending into Rockwall instead of Irving might be new, it shouldn’t pose a challenge. And Ralph Hall certainly shouldn’t, as this much more Sessions’ district than it is Hall’s.

TX-21 – reddish brown

[Demographics]

Obama: 39 McCain: 60

Likely candidate: Kenny Marchant

This district no longer includes the Denton county portions of Carrolton, but otherwise Marchant has no reason to complain. Although he does pick up a fair amount of black voters near the Fort Worth-Arlington boundary, his new district went by McCain by over twenty points.

What’s more, the new district is a lot less likely to slip away from under his feet than the last one. Now that the southern part of the old TX-24 is gone, Marchant represents the third least Hispanic district of all Texas’ predominantly urban districts (beaten only by TX-14 and TX-15 just to his north). It’s therefore unlikely that increasing Hispanic eligibility to vote will cut his margins as much as will happen elsewhere.

TX-23 – very light blue

[Demographics]

Obama: 42 McCain: 58

Likely candidate: Kay Granger

The last district wholly within the Metroplex is also the one Republicans will be most wary of. It includes the bits of Tarrant Granger already represents plus a little more on central Fort Worth. Of course, that kind of reduction in size tends to betoken population growth. And this being Texas, population growth means Hispanics.

At 24% Hispanic,  TX-23 could become quite hairy by 2020. Unfortunately there’s no obvious way to avoid this – Fort Worth doesn’t have a huge amount of monolithically Hispanic neighbourhoods, and some of them have been dropped into TX-13, but it has enough of them scattered in every area for it to be hard to minimise Hispanics.

Therefore, Granger may have to play up her moderate bona fides. Maybe she’ll hold it, maybe she won’t. A lot will depend on how much she can cut Democratic margins amongst the Hispanic community.

East Texas

TX-16 – bright green

[Demographics]

Obama: 29 McCain: 70

Likely candidate: ?

This is basically Ralph Hall’s district minus Ralph Hall. A few lines are straightened up, it grabs a couple of small counties and now only splits Collin County, but nothing to write home about.

However, without Rockwall in the district it’ll lack an incumbent, so expect a free-for-all in the Republican primary. Just don’t expect any Democrat to stand a chance in the general.

This is a district so red I really should have worked out a way to send it into Tarrant to help out Granger.

TX-22 – muddy brown

[Demographics]

Obama: 35 McCain: 64

Likely candidate: Jeb Hensarling

This is in some ways a Dallas district, as it provides more than a third of the district’s population and is the biggest contributor to the total by some margin. Certainly the district’s centre of gravity lies in the suburban and exurban parts of the old TX-5.

On the other hand, to the core of that district I’ve added a bunch of thinly populated East Texas counties reaching down towards Dallas. Whilst it’s not going to be enough to worry Dallas resident Hensarling about a possible primary, it does keep the district nice and red and provides it with a potential out into a future existence as a proper East Texas district when overwhelmed Republican districts start to have to flee DFW in 2020.

TX-24 – very dark purple

[Demographics]

Obama: 31 McCain: 69

Likely candidate: Louie Gohmert

What can I say here? Like TX-16, the changes are not major. Three counties to the north are lost and in return most of Cherokee county is taken. Had I not been playing to strict population equality rules – no more than 1000 plus or minus than the average – I’d have taken the entire county and created a district that actually looks naturally shaped.

Either way, it’d still be a monstrosity for Democrats and a sinecure for Gohmert.

TX-25 – dark pink

[Demographics]

Obama: 34 McCain: 65

Likely candidate: Ted Poe (?)

This was originally designed as a fairly pure South-east Texas district. Although population equality necessitated a move out of that area, I had hoped to do it just by hopping Galveston Bay and grabbing most of Texas City.

Then I checked and found out Ted Poe lives in Humble. After deciding it wasn’t practicable to essentially swap Brady and Poe into each other’s districts, I then had to abandon the Galveston Bay hop and head into Harris County, necessitating a fair bit of boundary reworking between this district, TX-26 and TX-31. That and the need to keep TX-31 as black as possible account for most of the very ugly lines in north Harris, with population equality causing the rest.

Nevertheless, South-east Texas still predominates here, as less than 25% of voters are resident in Harris county. Indeed, Ted Poe still might not live here, as I only included about two-thirds of Humble. Poe isn’t completely immune from a challenge emanating from Beaufort or Port Arthur.

Either way though, Republicans are heavily favoured.

TX-26 – dark grey

[Demographics]

Obama: 26 McCain: 73

Likely candidate: Kevin Brady

My initial plan called for this seat to be based around Montgomery County, heading down into Harris to pick up some northern outliers of Houston.

Having to draw Ted Poe back into TX-25 screwed that up, especially as a lot of the north Houston suburbs ended up being needed for Sheila Jackson-Lee’s district.

Instead the district limits itself to only a few forays over the Harris-Montgomery line and instead heads eastward to take in San Jacinto, Polk and Tyler counties. These appear to be fairly standard East Texas counties and are thus quite different from rapidly growing Montgomery county, but the culture clash shouldn’t be a problem for Brady, as he already represents everything in this district bar the portions of Harris.

At 73% McCain, this is a very safe district.

Central Texas

TX-27 – emerald green

[Demographics]

Obama: 40 McCain: 59

Likely candidate: John Carter

I’m skipping over Houston for now and heading straight on to central Texas. Except of course that I’ve mostly done central Texas using the tendrils of TX-10, TX-11, TX-19 and TX-22.

In practice, therefore, I’m left with only three districts. Once you exclude the metro Austin one, you’re left with two and this is the only one that makes a concerted effort to stay within the area’s borders.

I can’t say I’m entirely happy with it. I’d hoped to make Carter safer than this, but screwing over Chet Edwards sucked up many of the reddest bits of central Texas and the southern parts of this district aren’t quite as Republican as Erath, Hamilton and Correll counties, which have been removed.

That said, this district isn’t a disaster. Williamson and Bell counties are getting bluer, but this bluening is not necessarily permanent and is in any case balanced out by my removal of Killeen from the district and the much more rural eastern end of the district.

Carter might not like this district, but he can win it, as it voted for McCain by around 3% more than the rest of Texas. Even in 2020, it’s unlikely Texas will be much more than a swing state and much of that change will be driven by Hispanics, who aren’t a massive factor here.

Carter or his successors just have to hang on for five more terms, by which time Chet Edwards will be long gone and a central Texas district staying further away from Austin can be drawn.

TX-28 – light purple

[Demographics]

Obama: 72 McCain: 26

Likely candidate: Lloyd Dogget, Mike McCaul (?)

Splitting Austin was a cute idea, but realistically an over-ambitious one. Since Republicans have failed to eliminate Lloyd Doggett that way, they’re better off giving him a metro Austin district. That way they can run against Austin liberals in the event of San Francisco falling into the sea and can also sit back and hope he falls victim to a race-based primary.

Northern and eastern portions of Austin were included in TX-9 to bulk up the numbers and the Travis county bit of Round Rock joins Pflugerville in TX-27, but otherwise Travis County belongs to this district.

No Republican is going to win here, so Michael McCaul should move.

TX-29 – dull green

[Demographics]

Obama: 38 McCain: 61

Likely candidate: Michael McCaul (?)

This would be a good place for McCaul to move, as no other congress-critter lives here and it’s Republican by quite a significant margin.

That said, it doesn’t include much of his previous district. Both the old TX-10 and the new TX-29 are Austin to Houston districts, but the old version took a rather more northerly route. Only two counties – thinly populated Austin and Waller – are found in both districts in their entirety – whilst the three other counties where some ground is shared still don’t bring the shared areas above 100,000 people.

On the other hand, Mike McCaul cannot win a minority-majority Austin district, and this is the only nearby district without an incumbent.

McCaul’s problems don’t stop there, however. Whilst the district goes from the Travis County border to take in one voting district from Harris County, it also extends south to the Gulf of Mexico. In the east it takes in half of Fort Bend county, including the lion’s share of Rosenberg and in the south-east it picks up heavily Hispanic areas towards San Antonio, including San Mateo and Seguin.

The district’s 31% Hispanic population poses a ticking timebomb for McCaul. Prboably not one that will get him by 2020, although by then it’ll be a minority-majority district. But certainly one that will make him difficult to protect come the next redistricting.

Houston