• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: There have been rumors about this before that didn’t pan out, but based on the amount of chatter out there, it’s seeming very likely all of a sudden: ex-Rep. Tom Campbell sounds poised to drop his gubernatorial bid (where he’s been polling well, but is way financially outgunned) and move over to the Senate race. He sounds likely to announce this on Thursday, seeing as how he has said he will be appearing at a Los Angeles County GOP event then, but “not as a candidate for Governor.” Weirdly, this could wind up helping Assemblyman Chuck DeVore in the Senate primary, as Campbell was one of three ostensible moderates (with no right-winger) in the Governor’s race, but now Campbell and Carly Fiorina will be splitting the moderate vote in the Senate primary, potentially letting ultra-conservative DeVore crash the gate.

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio has been winning his fair share of county GOP straw polls lately, but this one was more eagerly awaited than most, because it’s Charlie Crist’s home county. Rubio continues his winning streak, winning the straw poll in moderate-leaning Pinellas County (home of St. Petersburg) by a 106-54 margin.

• IL-Sen: This seems like a good get for David Hoffman, as he seeks to make up some ground on Alexi Giannoulias in the Senate primary: he got the Dem primary endorsements of both Chicago’s major papers, the Tribune and Sun-Times (although getting the endorsement of the more conservative and anti-machine Tribune doesn’t seem odd for Hoffman, given his reformist message). On the GOP side, Rep. Mark Kirk got an endorsement from one of his fellow moderates from the state delegation, downstate Rep. Timothy Johnson.

• MA-Sen: If you were thinking, in the wake of a couple good polls in Massachusetts, that it was safe to unbuckle your seatbelt and resume walking around the cabin, guess again. Republican state Sen. Scott Brown, taking a page from the Paulists, used the one-day “moneybomb” technique to good effect, raking in $1.1 million and basically ensuring he’ll be able to stay on the air up until Election Day. Brown has yet another TV spot up on the air, in response to Coakley’s first negative ad; Brown‘s firing back with the ol’ “tsk, tsk on you for going negative” approach. Between the contradictory polls, Brown’s fundraising, and other signs of life (like a Boston Herald endorsement for Brown – although that’s not a surprise from the conservative Herald), the Beltway Dems have decided to leave nothing to chance, and are getting more involved, as the DNC is sending in some ground troops, and the DSCC is ponying up for $567K for more ad time for Coakley – meaning, in its own way, that the GOP already won a moral victory here by getting the DSCC to pry open its checkbook.

• NH-Sen: I don’t know if anyone really cares one lick about what former Vice-President Dan Quayle is up to these days, but he popped up long enough to endorse Ovide Lamontagne in the GOP Senate primary in New Hampshire. Meanwhile, wealthy businessman Bill Binnie is tapping his own personal money to get a head start on the ad wars in the NH primary, with an introductory bio spot.

• NV-Sen: For a while there, it was looking like Harry Reid was even starting to have some trouble within his caucus, as Russ Feingold publicly criticized Reid yesterday over his insensitive language regarding Barack Obama, wondering out loud if he should continue as Majority Leader. Feingold dialed it back a little today, though, saying that he supports Reid staying on it that role. With Chris Cillizza today joining many other pundits in wondering if the fork is ready to be stuck in Reid, there comes word (buried in a longer Politico story), via anonymous sources, of a “a whisper campaign in Nevada that it would be possible for him to step aside and find someone else who could win.”

• NY-Sen-B: Ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. is beating the Senate drum a little louder today, saying in a New York Post (interesting choice of venue) that he’s “strongly considering” the race. In an interview with Chris Mathews, he also had his version of the “Ich bin ein Berliner” moment, enunciating that “I am a New Yorker, I am a New Yorker.” (Although I believe, in the local dialect, that’s pronounced “Hey! I’m a fuggin’ New Yorker here already, now step off!”)

• MA-Gov (pdf): Hot on the heels of the MA-Gov poll from the Boston Globe comes another one from PPP, part of its MA-Sen sample. Their sample finds incumbent Dem Deval Patrick in slightly worse position than the Globe (with an awful 22/59 approval), although he’s still in the lead. Interestingly, this poll also sees the Republicans in much better shape than the Globe did, as independent candidate Tim Cahill slouches into third place here. Patrick leads GOPer Charlie Baker and Cahill 29-27-21, while in a Patrick/Cahill/Christy Mihos three-way, Cahill moves into second with a 28-25-21 outcome. (This certainly points to the composition difference between the PPP sample, which may have overweighted Republicans, and the Globe/UNH sample, which may have overweighted Democrats. The Senate special election results may give us a clue which of these MA-Gov polls is closer.) PPP also tested Democratic SoS William Galvin as a replacement for Patrick, finding little difference, with a 26-26-18 race among Galvin, Baker, and Cahill, and a 26-22-20 race among Galvin, Cahill, and Mihos.

• MN-Gov: The Republican field in the Minnesota governor’s race may actually be dwindling down into the single digits, as things sort themselves out. Former Auditor Pat Anderson is dropping her gubernatorial bid, and instead is looking at a return to her old job. She’ll be running against Democratic incumbent Rebecca Otto, who unseated Anderson in 2006.

• RI-Gov: Things are getting pretty dire for the Reupblicans in Rhode Island, where former Cranston mayor (and 2006 Senate primary candidate) Stephen Laffey decided for the second time that he isn’t going to run for Governor. With businessman Rory Smith’s dropout, the GOP still has nobody here, although salvation may be coming in the form of current Gov. Don Carcieri’s communications director, John Robitaille, who is filling the gap by filing as a candidate. (Robitaille’s only political experience is losing a state Rep. race in 2006.) Meanwhile, Josh Goodman has been wondering if independent candidate Lincoln Chafee, while a former Republican, might actually run to the left of the Democrat in this race (telegraphed by his statements on possible tax hikes). A local consultant tells Goodman that Chafee may in fact get labor backing on the race, perhaps depending on which Dem Chafee faces. (Chafee might get labor support if he’s against Treasurer Frank Caprio, although the more liberal AG Patrick Lynch would probably have a lock on labor support if he survives the Dem primary.)

• LA-02: The prospect is lessening for a free-for-all Democratic primary in New Orleans for what’s likely to be an easy race to defeat GOP incumbent Rep. Joe Cao. State Rep. Cedric Richmond seems to be locking down establishment support as a consensus candidate here, and that was underscored by an endorsement from former Sen. John Breaux. Fellow state Rep. Juan LaFonta is still in the primary, but state Rep. Karen Carter Peterson (who took Bill Jefferson to a runoff in 2006) is running for state Senate instead of LA-02, and none of Richmond’s 2008 primary opponents seem to be getting in the race.

• PA-06: After earlier vows that he wouldn’t get out the GOP primary in the 6th despite the re-entry of incumbent Rep. Jim Gerlach, yesterday state Rep. Curt Schroder saw the fundraising-related handwriting on the wall and got out of the race. With former Revenue Secretary Howard Cohen and Lower Merion Twp. Commissioner Scott Zelov already having stood down, that leaves only self-funder Steven Welch and several some-dudes in Gerlach’s way.  

• RI-01: Maybe he’s been comparing notes with Jim Traficant on how to restart your political career after spending several years in prison. Republican former Providence mayor Buddy Cianci, fresh off of four and a half years in jail over criminal acts while mayor, is now considering a challenge to Rep. Patrick Kennedy.

• VA-09: Despite having dodged a bullet with state Del. Terry Kilgore deciding against a run, Rep. Rick Boucher may still have to avoid some incoming fire in November. The state House’s majority leader, Morgan Griffith, said he’s “considering” the race and may get in if someone stronger doesn’t. (Since the only other person who’s probably stronger is state Sen. William Wampler Jr., and it doesn’t sound like he’ll run in the 9th, as he’s probably banking on a Republican takeover of the state Senate soon, in which case he’d become Finance chair, it may in fact fall to Griffith.) Griffith does have one slight problem: he doesn’t live in the 9th, although he’s apparently within walking distance of the district lines.

• FL-CFO: Florida Democrats finally found a CFO candidate to help round out their slate of candidates: former state Rep. Loranne Ausley, who decided on a CFO run and ended her state Senate bid. The bigger implication is that state Sen. Al Lawson – who’s flirted off and on with a CFO bid – is probably staying for good in the FL-02 primary now. (Interestingly, Ausley, like Lawson, hails from the Tallahassee area.)

• OH-Auditor: Buzz in Ohio is that incumbent Mary Taylor (the only statewide Republican right now) is going to drop a bid for another term as Auditor and run as John Kasich’s running mate for Lt. Governor instead. This probably strengthens Kasich’s bid against incumbent Dem Ted Strickland… but an open Auditor seat is also good news for the Dems, as Hamilton Co. Commissioner David Pepper was already running a strong race against Taylor. Remember that the Auditor is one of the seats on Ohio’s state legislative redistricting board, so an Auditor pickup would compensate there for a loss at Governor or SoS (but not both).

• MT-St. Sen.: The Missoulian has a very early look at prospects in the state legislature in Montana. Because of the open seat situation in the Senate, Democrats might have a shot at retaking that body (the GOP controls 27-23). Of the 25 seats up this year, 16 are held by Republicans and 9 by Democrats, with a total of 15 of the 25 being open seats.

• VA-St. Sen.: Two special elections are on tap for tonight, one of which is very interesting. The 37th, a swingy area in suburban Fairfax County, was left vacant by new Republican AG Ken Cuccinelli; it’s being contested by Democratic Del. Dave Marsden and Republican former Fairfax Co. School Board member Steve Hunt. There are echoes of the gubernatorial race here, as Marsden is running a moderate-enough campaign that he may be at risk of losing the base’s interest, while Hunt is trying to downplay controversial social conservative remarks from his past. Hunt has an internal poll showing him up, and Dem enthusiasm may still be down thanks to the post-Creigh Deeds hangover, so the GOP seems poised to eke this one out, helping them to keep holding the Dems to a narrow 21-19 edge in the Senate. The other race is in the solid-red 8th in Virginia Beach, where GOP businessman Jeff McWaters should have little problem beating Democratic Bill Fleming to replace Republican Ken Stolle, who just became Virginia Beach Sheriff.

• NRCC: The NRCC bumped up four more challengers in their “Young Guns” framework today, most prominently a move to “Contender” (the 2nd of three tiers) for Jim Renacci, challenging Rep. John Boccieri in OH-16. Also entering at the lowest level (“On the Radar”) are former FBI agent Mike Grimm, running in NY-13, state Sen. Dan Debicella, running in CT-04, and state Rep. John Loughlin, running in RI-01 against Rep. Patrick Kennedy. That last entry may seem like the longest of long shots; it may in fact be more of a deterrent by the NRCC to keep Buddy Cianci (see above) from running here, and the accompanying bad PR that would go with that.

• Redistricting: Martin Frost’s former CoS, Matt Angle, is the center of Democratic efforts to un-gerrymander Texas’s House map after the 2010 census. Roll Call looks in depth at how he’s built a complex fundraising network that’s primarily aimed at Democratic gains in the state House (where they are down only 77-73), so Dems can get a better share of the four seats Texas is expected to add.

• Grant money: People with a professional interest in studying Congress might want to apply for research grants available from the Dirksen Congressional Center. It sounds particularly oriented toward graduate students and fellows, but I’m sure some of SSP’s readership fits that bill.

Edit: I just realized the deadline was of course Eastern standard time. Forgive the foolish Californian. At any rate, I did send my .drf.xml to Jeff in time, but even if I am too late this has been a lot of fun.

For my entry in New York redistricting contest, I decided to create a 27-1 map. I chose to eliminate Peter King and pack as many republicans as possible into Chris Lee’s 26th district.  

I expect all democrats to be reelected. Eliminating the old 3rd allowed me to move Nita Lowry’s district southwards, thereby opening up much of Westchester county to reinforce Hall and indirectly the other upstate districts. I aimed for 55% Obama (i.e. a PVI of D+2) for most of the vulnerable upstate districts. The most vulnerable incumbent is Bill Owens in the 23rd at 53% Obama. In general, I tried to keep incumbents in their main bases of support. Also, I was careful to make sure all incumbents’ homes were actually in their new districts.

I aimed for clean lines where possible; however, I had no compunction about obscene gerrymandering when necessary (e.g. Rochester). Some of the uglier districts where necessary to ensure VRA compliance (Nadia Velazquez’s). Also just for fun, I tried to keep all the NYC bridges within the same district.

All districts are within 1600 or about 0.2% of the average population and all but four are within 1000. Finally, I adjusted the district numbers to reflect the changes.

Now without further ado onto the districts.

Long Island

NY-01

Incumbent: Tim Bishop (D)

Population: 701,285

2008 Results: 54% Obama – 45% McCain

This district stays based in western Suffolk county including Bishop’s home in Southampton. I strengthened it from 51% Obama by grabbing some very blue parts of Islip in exchange for swingy parts of Brookhaven and solid red Smithtown.

NY-02

Incumbent: Steve Israel (D)

Population: 699,873

2008 Results: 54% Obama – 46% McCain

The 2nd stays based in western Suffolk county, including all of Israel’s home in Huntington. I had to weaken this district slightly to strengthen the 1st. I made up for this partly by sending a finger into true blue North Hempstead while moving GOP leaning parts of Babylon into McCarthy’s district.

NY-03

Incumbent: Carolyn McCarthy (D)

Population: 700,667

2008 Results: 56% Obama – 43% McCain

Formerly the 4th, this district takes in most of south eastern Nassau County, including most of McCarthy’s base in Hempstead.

NY-04

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman (D)

Population: 700,640

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 44% McCain

The remnants of Peter King’s district had to go somewhere, and this (formerly the 5th) is where much of it went. I moved the swingy parts of the old 3rd west of Hempstead here, while giving part of north Queens for balance. I also took in the blue parts of Glen Cove. This district drops a fair bit from its old D+12, but should stay blue.

New York City

Queens

NY-05

Incumbent: Gregory Meeks (D)

Population: 699,395

2008 Results: 74% Obama – 26% McCain

Formerly the 6th, this is probably my favorite district, simply because it royally screws Peter King. This stays based in southeast Queens, but stretches along the coast to take in the truly brutal parts of the old 3rd, including all of King’s hometown in Oyster Bay. At 50% African American, it stays VRA compliant and should be a cakewalk for Meeks.

NY-06

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner (D)

Population: 700,140

2008 Results: 61% Obama – 38% McCain

This district, formerly the 9th, is mostly unchanged. It is based in central and south western Queens, with a finger into republican parts of south Brooklyn.

NY-07

Incumbent: Joseph Crowley (D)

Population: 699,985

2008 Results: 72% Obama – 27% McCain

This district sheds its northern half in the Bronx, which instead goes to Nita Lowey. This is balanced out by the Queens part of Gary Ackerman’s old district.

Brooklyn

NY-08

Incumbent: Edolphus Townes (D)

Population: 700,681

2008 Results: 85% Obama – 15% McCain

Formerly the 10th, this district is still based eastern Brooklyn and still majority (56%) African American. I slightly extended the finger into south Brooklyn to take in some of the deep red areas.

NY-09

Incumbent: Nydia Velazquez (D)

Population: 700,803

2008 Results: 87% Obama – 12% McCain

Formerly the 12th, this VRA district continues to take in the majority Hispanic neighborhoods in northern Brooklyn, western Queens and lower Manhattan. In total the district is 51% Hispanic

NY-10

Incumbent: Yvette Clarke (D)

Population: 701,024

2008 Results: 86% Obama – 14% McCain

Formerly the 11th, this district stays deep blue with its 56% African American majority

NY-11

Incumbent: Michael McMahon (D)

Population: 699,849

2008 Results: 57% Obama – 43% McCain

Formerly the 13th, this district gets a big boost with the inclusion of the financial district and Batter Park in southern Manhattan. I also have a couple fingers into deep blue parts along the Brooklyn shore. The core of the district remains Staten Island however.

Manhattan

NY-12

Incumbent: Jerrold Nadler (D)

Population: 699,549

2008 Results: 71% Obama – 28% McCain

Formerly the 8th, this is probably the most gerrymandered district I have. As before it takes in most of the Lower West Side, wanders through lower Manhattan, the jumps across the Brooklyn Bridge to take in much of western Brooklyn

NY-13

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney (D)

Population: 699,640

2008 Results: 80% Obama – 19% McCain

This districts stays based in eastern Manhatten then jumps accross the Queensboro Bridge and Long Expressway to take in north western Queens.

NY-14

Incumbent: Charlie Rangel (D)

Population: 701,118

2008 Results: 92% Obama – 7% McCain

Formerly the 15th, this district stays based in Harlem and the rest of northern Manhattan. At 44% Hispanic and 28% AA, this is still solidly majority minority.

Bronx

NY-15

Incumbent: Jose Serrano (D)

Population: 699,572

2008 Results: 95% Obama – 5% McCain

At 63% Hispanic, this is the Bronx area VRA district taking in the south west of the borough.

NY-16

Incumbent: Nita Lowey (D)

Population: 699,561

2008 Results: 67% Obama – 32% McCain

Formerly the 18th, this district stays based in New Rochelle, but moves to take in the Bronx parts of the 7th and red parts of Northern Nassau County.

NY-17

Incumbent: Eliot Engel (D)

Population: 699,626

2008 Results: 70% Obama – 29% McCain

This district stays based in the north west Bronx, then stretches along western Westchester to take in the blood red parts of Rockland county.

Upstate

NY-18

Incumbent: John Hall (D)

Population: 701,862

2008 Results: 58% Obama – 41% McCain

We now get to the second benefit of eliminating Peter King. Since a series of NYC districts moved south and west to fill in the old 3rd, I’m able to open up some bright blue parts of Westchester County. Hall’s district, formerly the 19th, now extends much further south, taking in White Plains, part of Yonkers, and Mount Vernon. For balance, I shed Orange county and south western Dutchess county.

NY-19

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey (D)

Population: 700,165

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 44% McCain

Formerly the 22nd, this district gets the most radical redraw of any in the state. I shed the entire northern half of the district, using Binghamton and Ithaca to strengthen Acuri. Meanwhile, I extend the district south to take in Orange county and the blue parts of Rockland county. Most of Hinchey’s base in Ulster County is still in so she should still be able to hold onto it, but it will definitely won’t be cakewalk anymore.

NY-20

Incumbent: Scott Murphy (D)

Population: 700,715

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 44% McCain

The biggest change here is the addition of deep blue Troy and part of western Albany. Also I have added in Poughkeepsie and swingy parts of south western Dutchess County. I have given Washington county to the 23rd, along with a blue finger running down the west part of the district. This should be a little easier to hold.

NY-21

Incumbent: Paul Tonko (D)

Population: 700,770

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 43% McCain

This district is weakened slightly to help out Scott Murphy and to some extent Bill Owens. To make up for the loss of Troy and part of Albany I extend the district both north and south west. To the north I take in deep red Hamilton County along with GOP parts of Fulton, Saratoga, and Warren Counties. To the south west I take in swing parts of Greene and Sullivan Counties, red parts of Delaware county, and solid blue parts of north Ulster County.

NY-22

Incumbent: Mike Acuri (D)

Population: 700,450

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 44% McCain  

Formerly the 24th, this district gets a significant boost with the addition of Ithaca and Binghamton. I also shed the deep red area north of Rome. Finally to get sufficient population, I added in swingy Syracuse suburbs in south and western Onondaga County.

NY-23

Incumbent: Bill Owens (D)

Population: 701,668

2008 Results: 53% Obama – 45% McCain  

This remains our most vulnerable district in New York. Still I manage to make it a point bluer by shedding the deep red area north and west of Rome and extending the aforementioned finger down the eastern border.

NY-24

Incumbent: Eric Massa (D)

Population: 701,475

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 43% McCain  

Formerly the 29th, this district gets a significant boost from a large chunk of downtown Rochester. I also shed the deep red Western half of the district. Finally I sent out a finger going east to claim the rest of the swing parts of Maurice Hinchey’s old district

NY-25

Incumbent: Dan Maffei (D)

Population: 699,797

2008 Results: 55% Obama – 43% McCain  

This district also gets a bump from parts of Rochester. However, this is then canceled out by the very republican areas in and around northern Oneida County. The end result is a point more competitive, but Maffei should be able to hold it with his base in Syracuse

NY-26

Incumbent: Chris Lee (R)

Population: 700,240

2008 Results: 42% Obama – 57% McCain  

All the republicans in western New York had to go somewhere, so this is it. I added in the deep red western parts of Massa’s district along with any republican leaning areas in Erie and Chautauqa counties.  Meanwhile I moved in swing areas around Rochester or Buffalo into the 27th and 28th.

NY-27

Incumbent: Brian Higgins (D)

Population: 699,327

2008 Results: 57% Obama – 41% McCain  

This district is mostly unchanged, with a bit more of Higgins base in Buffalo. Should be an easy hold.

NY-28

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter (D)

Population: 699,260

2008 Results: 57% Obama – 41% McCain  

This district probably ties the 8th for most gerrymandered. Seriously, Congresswoman Slaughter please for all that is holy move to the other side of Rochester. As it is now this district is D+15. I wanted to share some of that wealth with Maffei and Massa. The result is a serious of fingers taking in all the swing or only lean blue suburbs of Rochester, with just the thinnest sliver running through the downtown area to connect her home. As before I then run along the shore of Lake Ontario to take in northern Buffalo. I realize this district is ugly, but then it already gets a bad rap as the “earmuffs.”

At any rate, that’s my crack at New York. I think that’s about as much as we can strengthen upstate without sacrificing one of our incumbents. If nothing else though, I am convinced we need to get rid of Peter King once and for all.

Full size maps are available at http://s862.photobucket.com/al…

This is my contest entry for Redistricting New York.

The aim of this entry was to create a map where 27 Democrats should be expected to win in New York in any given election. Every Democratic district is 53%+ for Obama. (Notwithstanding the astute observation by jeffmd that Presidential toplines don't mean everything) only 16 Republicans were elected in districts that Obama won by 53% or more (DE-AL, IL-06, IL-10, IL-13, IL-16, IA-04, LA-02, MI-06, MI-08, MI-11, NJ-02, OH-12, PA-06, PA-15, VA-10, and WA-08 [55% or more in bold]).

This entry respects VRA districts in New York City, puts King an a solid Obama district, and solidifies Democratic districts in upstate New York. 

Since New York is expected to lose one Congressional seat, one incumbent's district needs to be eliminated. Although the current Representative from New York 23 is a Democrat, I eliminated Representative Owens district and combined his home with Representative Murphy's NY-20. This map also shifts Representative Massa out of his district (represented here as NY-19). The reason for this is the location of his home in southeastern Steuben County. Steuben County is surrounded by Republican leaning counties, and a way to create a third solid Democratic district in Western New York is to connect Rochester and Syracuse.

Long Island

NY 1 Current Incumbent – Bishop

Population – 700,226

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	77%	7%	2%	12%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	54%	44%
New District	54%	46%
Change	0%	+2%

NY 1 becomes the southern half of Suffolk County.

NY 2 – Current Incumbent – Israel

Population – 700,711

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	78%	7%	3%	10%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	56%	43%
New District	54%	46%
Change	-2%	+3%

NY 2 contains the central and northeastern portions of Suffolk County. This district remains potentially competitive, as the district vote for Obama was 53%.

Of all of the districts drawn on this map, this is probably the hardest one to justify – going from a district where Obama won with 56% in 2008. The only solace that I have is that a) Republicans rarely win districts where Obama won with 53% or greater, and b) there are plenty of Republican precincts in Nassau in Suffolk counties, especially along the border and along the northern shore. This, then requires a couple of decisions that need to be made. First, you could divide up Nassau and Suffolk counties east-west as exemplified by Answer Guy with a historical discussion here. Answer Guy's map divides Nassau into seven districts – each taking a portion of the Republican areas on Long Island.

NY 3 – Current Incumbent – None

Population – 700,454

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	70%	13%	4%	11%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	47%	52%
New District	55%	44%
Change	+8%	-8%

Unlike other maps for this contest, I did not feel the need to split up Long Island – just moving the pieces around could create four Democratic-leaning districts (and BTW, and FWIW, WA 1 is connected by Ferry between Edmonds and Kingston).

This configuration of NY 3 draws Representative King out of the district. Even if he were to decide to run in the district, and not against Representative McCarthy in his NY 4, he would face a district where Obama received 55% of the vote.

The district is split into two areas, those parts of Hempstead adjacent to Queens and the portion of Hempstead adjacent to Suffolk County. The two areas are connected through Long Beach.

NY 4 – Current Incumbent – McCarthy

Population – 700,121

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	77%	5%	9%	9%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	58%	41%
New District	54%	46%
Change	-4%	5%

This is perhaps my ugliest looking district, but Representative McCarthy should be able to retain his seat under this configuration. The district encompasses the northern part of Nassau County, some Republican areas of Hempstead, and the North and West portions of Suffolk County. The district also extends into the Bay Side and Bay Terrace neighborhoods of the Queens.

If Representative King were to run for this seat, he would find its dynamics very unfavorable, with a lot of new constituents with a strong Democratic lean.

NY 5 – Current Incumbent – Ackerman/King

Population – 700,231

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	54%	9%	20%	14%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	63%	36%
New District	60%	39%
Change	-3%	+3%

NY 5 could be considered a New York City district, as it stretches from the Bronx through Queens into North Hempstead and Republican areas of Hempstead (including Representative King's Seaford neighborhood).

New York City

NY 6 Current Incumbent – Meeks

Population – 700,218

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	16%	51%	8%	16%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	89%	11%
New District	86%	13%
Change	-3%	+2%

This is a VRA district, and it does not change much from the current district. It does add all of the Rockaways.

NY 7 Current Incumbent – Crowley

Population – 700,095

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	41%	9%	11%	34%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	79%	20%
New District	70%	29%
Change	-9%	+9%

Like the existing district, there are two distinct areas of the district. Instead of going North, NY 7 now orientates South, from Woodside and Hunters Point, through Ridgewood and Bushwick, and Woodhaven. From there, the district cuts into Jamaca Bay, Floyd Bennet Field and Marine Park to connect to Seagate, Coney Island, Brighton Beach and Manhattan Beach.

This is a minority-majority district.

NY 8 Current Incumbent – Nadler

Population – 700,295

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	52%	11%	15%	20%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	74%	25%
New District	87%	13%
Change	+13%	-12%

NY 8 is now entirely a West Side/Lower Manhattan district.

NY 9 Current Incumbent – Weiner

Population – 700,395

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	26%	11%	17%	42%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	55%	44%
New District	76%	23%
Change	+21%	-21%

NY 9 takes what was lost from NY 7 – crossing from the Queens into the Bronx over the Bronx-Whiteshone Bridge. The district is a minority-majority district.

NY 10 Current Incumbent – Towns

Population – 700,417

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	24%	52%	4%	16%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	91%	9%
New District	84%	16%
Change	-7%	+7%

NY 10 loses the Willamsburg neighborhood and areas toward the west, and gains Republican areas in Manhattan Terrace. The district remains an African-American majority district.

NY 11 Current Incumbent – Clarke

Population – 700,102

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	49%	15%	16%	16%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	90%	9%
New District	60%	40%
Change	-30%	+31%

The district extends from Representative Clarke's home precinct in Prospect Gardens in the north to Bath Beach in the south. While NY 11 is no longer an African-American majority district, it remains a minority-majority district. Because it takes in many of the Republican precincts in Queens, Obama's percentage in the district drops to 60%.

NY 12 Current Incumbent – Velazquez

Population – 700,391

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	22%	50%	4%	20%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	86%	13%
New District	91%	9%
Change	+5%	-4%

NY 12 is now the second African-American majority district located entirely in the Queens. The district encompasses the Crown Heights and Prospect Heights neighborhoods as well as the Williamsburg neighborhoods. On the western edge of the Queens, a finger stretches south to pick up Representative Velazquez's home precinct in Carroll Gardens.

It is possible that neither Nydia Velazquez nor Yvette Clarke would be happy in their districts, since Representative Clarke will represent the more Hispanic-leaning district, while Representative Velazquez will represent an African-American majority district. However, this could be easily rectified. First, in my original map (before I learned what precinct each representative lives in), I had Representative Clarke in NY 12 (and she now is the Northernmost precinct of NY 11). Second, since Representative Velazquez is a renter, it is possible that she could subsequently move into the then open NY 11.

NY 13 Current Incumbent – McMahon

Population – 700,091

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	67%	9%	6%	15%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	49%	51%
New District	60%	39%
Change	+11%	-12%

All of Staten Island remains in NY 13, and the district crosses into Brooklyn over the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge. From the bridge, the district heads north along the New York Bay into the Red Hook and Gowanus neighborhoods.

This composition makes the swing district a reliable Democratic district. Obama won 60% in this district.

NY 14 Current Incumbent – Maloney

Population – 700,256

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	61%	8%	9%	19%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	78%	21%
New District	80%	19%
Change	+2%	-2%

NY 14 retains much of its current shape – although it does go a bit further north to encompass Rikers Island. Representative Maloney should be happy, as Obama won 80% of the vote here.

NY 15 Current Incumbent – Rangel

Population – 699,954

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	14%	30%	3%	50%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	93%	6%
New District	91%	8%
Change	-2%	+2%

Charlie Rangel may face a stiff primary challenge in this district where Obama won 91% of the vote. The district loses portions of the Upper West Side for the Norwood and Olinville neighborhoods in the Bronx. The district does retain most of Harlem.

The district is a majority Hispanic district (just over 50%). 

NY 16 Current Incumbent – Serrano

Population – 700,580

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	5%	30%	2%	60%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	95%	5%
New District	93%	6%
Change	-2%	+1%

60% Hispanic. 93% Obama. Not much more I can say about this Bronx district.

Upstate New York

NY 17 Current Incumbent – Lowey

Population – 700,687

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	62%	20%	3%	12%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	62%	38%
New District	62%	37%
Change	+0%	-1%

Representative Lowey's district extends from the Bronx and follows I-95 and I-695 through Mount Vernon to the Connecticut border. To complete the district, NY 17 extends north along I-84 into eastern Putnam County and southern Dutchess counties.

NY 18 Current Incumbent – Engel

Population – 700,238

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	70%	9%	5%	14%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	72%	28%
New District	58%	41%
Change	-14%	+13%

New York 18 extends into the Bronx to pick up Representative Engel's neighborhood of Fairport goes north through Yonkers into Westchester and Putnam counties. The District crosses the Hudson over I-87, and takes the Republican portions of Rockland and Orange County.

Engel's district takes a hit in order to strengthen Representative Hall. Obama's percentage in the district drops to 58%, which still should be a safe seat for a Democrat.

NY 19 Current Incumbent – None

Population – 700,409

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	86%	6%	2%	3%

	Obama	McCain
Old District*	56%	43%
New District	56%	43%
Change	+0%	-0%

* Percentage for Representative Maffei's current district
Percentage for NY 29 = Obama 48%, McCain 50%

This configuration of upstate New York is necessary to preserve a 27-1 delegation. With Eric Massa's home in Corning in Southeastern Steuben County, the possible routes are to go north to Rochester, north and east to Ithica and Syracuse, or west towards Buffalo. None of these options make much sense and damage the possibilities of creating a Democratic performing district for Representative Arcuri's Utica based district because of the need to add population to NY 22 (or Maffei's Syracuse based district).

1) North to Rochester/Syracuse. This route is problematic for the creation of a sensible (to the eye) district for Representative Arcuri. Since in this formulation, his district spans I-90 and dives south to pick up Ithaca, any finger north puts pressure on Arcuri's district to ensure contiguity. (Also see MattTX2's entry for a good explanation of why going North does not work).

2) West to Buffalo. This route is more logical than going North, but has the effect of making NY 26 an eyesore, when it is possible to create a compact Republican performing district in Western New York and safer Democratic districts throughout upstate New York.

Instead, what I did was to create a district spanning I-90 from Syracuse to Rochester and Democratic portions of Ontario county, which is similar to the existing NY 25. In this district, Obama received 55% of the vote. As I suggested in the intro, 55% is really the safest magic number, with 7 Republicans representing districts 55% plus. Of those 7 Republicans, one Cao won because of scandal, two are in Illinois (where Obama is from), and one is a state institution (Castle). For me, the only head scratchers are the two Pennsylvania districts and WA-8 (but that is a different story).

To sum up, NY-19 is a very safe Democratic district and follows much of the current NY 25, even if it does not contain Representative Massa's (or Representative Maffei's) current residence. This does not pose a Constitutional problem, but long-term, is a relatively compact district that should safely elect a Democrat to Congress. In addition, if Massa is not able to win reelection in 2010 (rated lean Democrat by CQ; Kerry 42%, Gore 43%), the issue then becomes moot. However, since that is not part of the conditions of this contest, I choose to create a compact district between Rochester and Syracuse and elsewhere in upstate New York that are more consistently Democratic performing.

NY 20 Current Incumbent – Hall

Population – 700,079

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	74%	10%	3%	12%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	51%	48%
New District	55%	44%
Change	+4%	-4%

Representative Hall's district, like most of the swing districts in upstate New York is strengthened. The district stretches from the northern portion of Weschester County (including Yorktown and New Castle) to a small portion of Ulster County and includes the Democratic parts of Rockland County and Orange County.

The district becomes a safe seat for Representative Hall, with Obama's percentage at 55%.

As an aside, I think this district looks like a M.U.S.C.L.E. Man, with its head in Ulster County, two arms going from Orange County to Dutchess County, and its two legs stretching into Ramapo and Yorktown and New Castle.

NY 21 Current Incumbent – Tonko

Population – 700,765

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	89%	6%	2%	3%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	58%	40%
New District	56%	42%
Change	+2%	-2%

This Albany-centered district becomes less Democratic to shore up Representative Arcuri's seat, but the district should remain a safe seat for Representative Tonko.

In the Capitol Region area, the district loses Schenectady and gains Saratoga. Outside of the region, the district takes in Republican-leaning portions of Schohare and Greene counties, and Republican areas of Delaware and Ostego counties. Representative Tonko's residence in Amsterdam remains in the district.

NY 22 Current Incumbent – Hinchey/Massa

Population – 700,478

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	88%	5%	2%	4%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	59%	39%
New District	55%	44%
Change	-4%	+5%

This district is drawn for Represenative Hinchey, but would be a good district for Representative Massa should Hinchey (72) retire.

The district stretches along the Southern border of New York from Hinchey's home town of Hurley to Corning in Steuben County. The district also encompasses the Southern portions of Tompkins and Cortland counties and, in the East, the City of Poughkeepsie. The performance of the district does drop to 55% – staying above the potentially competitive line.

NY 23 Current Incumbent – Murphy/Owens

Population – 700,469

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	93%	3%	1%	2%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	51%	48%
New District	53%	45%
Change	+2%	-3%

New York 23 takes in many of the counties in the Adirondack Mountains in upstate New York and then follows the Vermont/Massachusetts border into Dutchess County. 

This district contains most of the current NY 20 and portions of the current NY 23 and 24, but still raises Obama's percentage from 51% to 53%. Most of the increase is due to losing Greene and Delaware counties, in favor of more reliable Democratic Franklin and Clinton counties in the North.

Both Murphy and Owens reside in this district, but this is necessary to create safer districts across the State.

NY 24 Current Incumbent – Maffei

Population – 700,386

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	91%	4%	1%	2%

	Obama	McCain
Old District*	52%	47%
New District	55%	43%
Change	+3%	-4%

* Percentage is for the current NY 23
Percentage for the current NY 25: 56% Obama, 43% McCain

Instead of going east from Syracuse, as Maffei's current district does, this district goes North, picking up large portions of the current NY 23 (Oswego, Lewis, Jefferson, and St Lawrence Counties). This district is Syracuse based, both in population and possess a shared community of interest, with most of the district in the Syracuse TV market (or Watertown market, which overlaps with Syracuse anyway).

This configuration does suggest a swing, but increasingly Democratic district. Obama did get 55% in 2008, but it may have barely gone for Bush in 2004. Perot did well in this district in 92, probably getting close to 25-26% of the vote (compared to 16% in New York and 19% nationwide).

NY 25 Current Incumbent – Arcuri

Population – 700,483

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	87%	7%	2%	3%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	50%	48%
New District	54%	44%
Change	+4%	-4%

District 25 becomes an octopus looking district that stretches from Democratic Schenectady to Democratic Syracuse and Ithaca in the east. The head of the octopus is Representative Arcuri's home county of Oneida. The district also picks up portions of Syracuse. Despite the uglish looking nature of the district, the district gains 4% for Obama from 2008.

The district contains all of Schenectady, Oneida, and Madison counties, as well as portions of Montgomery, Schoharie, Otsego, Cortland, Tompkins, and Canondaga counties.

NY 26 Current Incumbent – Lee

Population – 699,996

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	94%	2%	1%	1%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	46%	52%
New District	44%	55%
Change	-2%	+3%

With this map, Representative Lee is the safest Republican in any of the New England states. This NY 26 takes in his home precinct of Clarence 22 in Erie County, and encompasses most of the Republican leaning counties in Western NY as well as Republican-leaning areas in Western Monroe county. The district is comprised of all of Genessee, Wyoming, Livingston, Yates, Schuyler, Allegany, Cattaraugus, and Chautauqua counties, most of Stuben and the Republican areas of Ontario counties.

NY 27 Current Incumbent – Higgens

Population – 700,487

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	81%	14%	2%	2%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	54%	44%
New District	57%	41%
Change	+3%	-3%

In creating a Republican performing district for Lee, NY 27 is the most immediate beneficiary. NY 27 now is an entirely Erie County district, with the exception of the town of Newstead and parts of Clarence in the Northeast corner (NY 26) and the North and West portions of Buffalo (NY 28).

NY 28 Current Incumbent – Slaughter

Population – 699,977

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	79%	12%	1%	6%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	68%	30%
New District	57%	41%
Change	-11%	+12%

Representative Slaugher's district stays similar in form to her existing district, but includes all of Niagara and Ontario counties and a large portion of Monroe County. The district does include most of Rochester. The Obama performance in the district drops, from 68% to 57%, but a Democrat should remain safe here.

Conclusion

I am proud of the map. Although not every Democratic incumbent may like the map, at least 24 of the 27 current Democratic incumbents will be very safe in every single election. Of the Democratic incumbents, every district gave Obama at least 53% of the vote. The only remaining potential swing districts are NY 1, NY 2, NY 4, NY 23, and NY 25. Of these districts, NY 23 and NY 25 are significantly safer than before, while NY 1, NY 2, and NY 4 are in Democratic leaning areas of Long Island (NY 4 has a significant presence in New York City as well).

I believe that preserving County and City lines are important to the districting process. Communities of interest should not be broken up whenever possible, and I tried to keep towns intact, especially in upstate New York.

To supporters of Representative Massa, I expect that he will succeed Representative Hinchey when he retires.

I aimed for a 27-1 district so I could shore up all the Democrats. I thought about going for a 28-0 district but I believe the main priority should be protecting the Democrats in Upstate New York because many of them hold marginal districts. Chris Lee is the only Republican in the Upstate New York Congressional delegation. I strengthened him while I gave Peter King (R) who represents the 3rd Congressional district a very tough time in Long Island. He lives in Seaford which is in eastern Nassau County along the coast. It is possible he could win but it is very unlikely. I also aimed to retain the African American majority of the 6th, 10th and 11th districts and increase the African American population of the 15th district. I also kept the 16th district’s heavy Hispanic majority, and made the 12th and 7th Hispanic majority districts. I also made sure no district (except the 26th which Chris Lee represents) fell below 53% for Obama (only the 2nd district was 53% for Obama.) The 1st, 20th, 22nd, 23rd and 24th were all 54% for Obama, though. The district I eliminated was Freshman Eric Massa’s (D) 29th district which contained some rural areas and part of Monroe County (Rochester.) Massa lived in Corning which is far away from Rochester, McCain won the district and I had to eliminate someone so I chose him. Just for your info, the home of each representative is next to his or her name. Also, current percentages show how well each presidential candidate performed in the current lines of a congressional district. The change shows how better or worse Obama’s performance is in the district I drew compared to the old one. “Important areas” refers to important areas inside the district I drew. Also, I tried to not draw convoluted districts except I did not succeed with the 4th. I did not want to make big changes because in my opinion, realistically, the map if the Democrats control the State Senate should not be too different from the current map but it should still strengthen Democrats. Here are some helpful links:

For maps and information on current Congressional districts: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N…

For election results by county: http://www.uselectionatlas.org…

For demographic data by county: http://quickfacts.census.gov/q…

where you can find locations of certain towns and neighborhoods: http://maps.google.com/

Long Island

1st District Tim Bishop (D) Southampton

Vote totals: Obama 162,072 54%, McCain 135,928 45%

Demographics: 6% African American, 11% Hispanic and 79% White    

Current percentages: Obama 52% McCain 48% Change: Obama +5

Population: 701,151

Important areas: Suffolk County, Riverhead, Port Jefferson and Islip. I removed Smithtown from the district which is politically marginal. I added in heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Islip to help strengthen Bishop. These changes are not foolproof protections but he is much safer than he currently is so I expect him to be fine. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

2nd district Steve Israel (D) Huntington Village

Vote totals: Obama 157,988 53%, McCain 139,528 47%

Demographics: 7% African American, 10% Hispanic and 77% White

Current percentages: Obama 56% McCain 43%

Change: Obama -7

Population:700,773              

Important areas: Suffolk County, Nassau County, Brentwood, part of Huntington, part of Oyster Bay, part of Islip, Smithtown, and Babylon. I weakened Israel a bit by removing Democratic parts of Islip and adding in more of the Republican South Coast, including part of Peter King’s current district. I retained Jewish neighborhoods in Oyster Bay and a few Hispanic neighborhoods in Islip. Peter King does not live in this district and since only a bit of his current district is in the 2nd, I do not see him running here. He may try but since he is running in mostly unfamiliar territory, he should not have the best shot. Israel’s district has the lowest Obama performance (except for the 26th.) Still, he has faced token opposition in recent years winning 67% of the vote in 2008. His strong stance on Israel should keep him strong among Jewish voters. Unless a very strong challenger such as Peter King challenges Israel, he should be fine. Status is Likely Democratic, Lean Democratic if Peter King runs.

3rd District Peter King (R)

Vote totals: Obama 184,548 58%, McCain 134,192 41%

Demographics: 18% African American, 11% Hispanic and 66% White

Current percentages: McCain 52% Obama 47%

Change: Obama +22

Population: 700,433

Important areas: Nassau County, a tiny slice of Queens County, Hempstead, South Oyster Bay and Long Beach. Peter King has no good options with the new map. This district contains large parts of his old district so if I were him, I would probably chose to run here. There are just a few problems for him: his district is now 68% White instead of 86% White, the district has heavily Democratic neighborhoods in Hempstead, Valley Stream and a few precincts in Queens where Obama won 98% of the vote (no, I am not kidding.) McCain won 52% under the current lines and even though King has most of his base here, about half of the district is new territory and the new territory is heavily Democratic. King may put up a strong fight but he is unlikely to make inroads in the district’s new territory so he should lose by a few points. If Andrew Cuomo (D) runs for Governor, he should boost up the Democratic ticket and King will certainly lose. Status is Lean Democratic if Peter King runs, Likely Democratic if he does not.

4th District Carolyn McCarthy (D) Mineola

Vote totals: Obama 170,373 56%, McCain 134,300 43%

Demographics: 8% African American, 10% Hispanic, 11% Asian and 68% White Current percentages: Obama 58% McCain 41% Change: Obama -4

Population:700,400

Important areas: Nassau County, Queens County, Suffolk County, Huntington, Glen Cove, Oyster Bay, Oakland Gardens and Mineola. McCarthy should not be overjoyed with her district but she should be safe. It is a bit convoluted because I had it take marginal parts of Huntington and then I sent the district into Queens to get some Democratic neighborhoods. Most of those neighborhoods were in the 60’s for Obama. McCarthy would have to get used to her new territory but it is Democratic enough to keep her safe. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

5th District Gary Ackerman (D) Rosalyn Heights vs. Joseph Crowley (D) Elmhurst

Vote totals: Obama 127,658 59%, McCain 85,585 40%

Demographics: 18% Hispanic, 26% Asian and 50% White

Current percentages: Obama 63% McCain 36% Change: Obama -8

Population: 701,084  

Important areas: Queens County, Nassau County, Great Neck, Little Neck, Beechcrest and Rosalyn Heights. The Queens portion of the district used to be very white and working class but now it is one of the most diverse areas in the country. Still, the district is not minority majority yet but in a few years, it will be. Ackerman gains some Republican parts of Nassau County while losing some heavily Hispanic areas in Queens to the 12th district. Still, he is very safe and he has a smaller chance of a minority candidate giving him a strong primary challenge. The only part of Crowley’s district that the 5th has is Crowley’s home Elmhurst so I expect him to run in the current 7th district which has most of his old district. He would probably lose to Ackerman in a primary if he ran here. Status is Safe Democratic.

New York City

6th District Gregory Meeks (D) Far Rockaway

Vote totals: Obama 195,708 78%, McCain 52,681 21%

Demographics: 50% African American, 13% Hispanic, 6% Asian and 25% White.

Current percentages: Obama 89% McCain 11%

Change:Obama-21

Population:701,133

Important areas: Queens County, Nassau County, Rockaway, Jamaica, Queens Village and Locust Manor. The old 6th district has many Democrats to spare so I gave the 6th district Republican parts of the Rockaway Peninsula and Nassau County. The district’s numbers are pretty polarized because although Obama crushes McCain at a first glance, there are some precincts on Breezy Point (Rockaway Peninsula) that are 70% for McCain or more that I added here. To be able to take Republican parts of Nassau County while keeping the population African American majority, I had to extend the district across Jamaica Bay to include African American areas in Canarsie. Meeks has his home in this district; he should have absolutely no problem here. Status is Safe Democratic

7th District Vacant

Vote totals: Obama 155,777 84%, McCain 26,639 15%

Demographics: 21% African American, 52% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 19% White

Current percentages: Obama 79% McCain 20% Change: Obama +10

Population:701,275

Important areas: Queens County, Bronx County, Westchester County, Jackson Heights, Westchester Village and Eastchester Bay. Due to New York City’s growing Hispanic population, I realized it needed another Hispanic majority district. I removed College Park and Elmhurst while adding Longwood and other Hispanic neighborhoods in the Bronx. This increased the Hispanic population from 40% to 52%. If Crowley wanted to run, he would probably head here since this contains most of his old district. Since the district has a Hispanic majority, a Hispanic candidate should have a good shot even though Hispanics tend to have lower turnout than other groups of voters so they probably will not make up the majority of the district’s votes. I am expecting a three way race with an African American candidate, Joseph Crowley and a Hispanic candidate. I am not sure if Ruben Espinosa, a conservative Democrat who represents New York’s 32nd Senate district will run here but he may be too conservative for voters who are unfamiliar with him. Then again, there may not be a brawl if the establishment gets behind a candidate. The establishment should not be pleased with Espinosa because he was an advocate for preventing same sex couples from obtaining equal marriage rights. Anyway, no Republican should win here. Status is Safe Democratic.

8th District Vacant

Vote totals: Obama 135,904 66%, McCain 69,115 33%

Demographics: 9% Hispanic, 19%Asian and 65% White

Current percentages: Obama 74% McCain 26%

Change: Obama -15

Population: 700,805

Important areas: Brooklyn, Manhattan, Borough Park, Bay Ridge and Flatiron. Other changes I made included adding Bay Ridge and part of Chinatown while removing Coney Island, Chelsea and the Upper West Side. Besides water contiguity, the Brooklyn Bridge also connects the district. I removed Nadler’s home from the district but since the 8th still contains most of the old district, he will probably run here and win. Something interesting is how polarized certain parts of the district are. Borough Park has voting district BK48 022 where Obama only won 2% of the vote. This is probably because there is an Orthodox Jewish community there and they sometimes vote almost simultaneously for certain candidates. Anyway, the district is too Democratic for the Borough Park precincts to have an effect. Status is Safe Democratic.

9th District Anthony Weiner (D) Forest Hills

Vote totals: Obama 125,869 64%, McCain 69,328 35%

Demographics: 11% African American, 18% Hispanic, 13% Asian and 52% White

Current percentages: Obama 55% McCain 44% Change: Obama +18              

Population: 701,194

Important areas: Queens, Brooklyn, Forest Hills, Brighton Beach and Ozone Park. I increased Obama’s percentage here from 55% to 64% by removing the Rockaway Peninsula and other not heavily Democratic neighborhoods. I also added African American neighborhoods in Flatlands, increasing the African American percentage here from 4% to 11%. Anyway, I do not see a Republican winning with these new changes. Status is Safe Democratic.

10th District Edolphus Towns (D) East New York

Vote totals: Obama 189,570 84%, McCain 34,120 15%

Demographics: 53% African American, 16% Hispanic and 24% White                            

Current percentages: Obama 91% McCain 9% Change: Obama -14

Population: 700,447

Important areas: Brooklyn, East New York, Brownsville and Bedford-Stuyvesant. This district undergoes a few changes by taking some primarily white neighborhoods and losing parts of Canarsie. I exchanged the neighborhoods with the 9th district to make the 9th safer for Weiner. The 10th still is heavily Democratic and complies with the VRA. Status is Safe Democratic.

11th District Yvette Clarke (D) Flatbush

Vote totals: Obama 190,135 88%, McCain 24,313 11%

Demographics: 52% African American, 14% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 24% White.

Current percentages: Obama 91% McCain 9%

Change: Obama -5

Population: 700,427

Important areas: Brooklyn, Flatbush and Crown Heights. The 11th district does not change much either, remaining heavily African American and Democratic even though there a few precincts that voted 90% for McCain here. Status is Safe Democratic.

12th District Nydia Velazquez (D) Williamsburg

Vote totals: Obama 153,958 85%, McCain 26,105 14%

Demographics: 9% African American, 52% Hispanic, 12% Asian and 22% White.

Current percentages: Obama 86% McCain 13%

Change: Obama -2                

Population: 700,906

Important areas: Queens, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Williamsburg, Fresh Pond Junction, and Lower East Side. The district is contiguous with Manhattan not just throughout water but also through a bridge. I shifted the district north to include some Hispanic neighborhoods east of Astoria and while removing some neighborhoods in Brooklyn for population purposes. These changes give this district a Hispanic majority even though they probably do not make up the majority of the voters yet. I assumed this because Hispanics usually have lower turnout levels than other voters’ turnout levels. I barely kept Velazquez’s home in this district by keeping it one voting district away from the 14th but at least she will not have to move. Overall, Velazquez should have no trouble in an election or a primary. Status is Safe Democratic.

13th District Michael McMahon (D) Staten Island

Vote totals: Obama 165,015 62%, McCain 100,172 37%

Demographics: 8% African American, 13% Hispanic, 7% Asian and 70% White

Current percentages: Obama 49% McCain 51% Change: Obama +27

Population:700,828

Important areas: all of Richmond County (Staten Island,) Manhattan, Chelsea, Hell’s Kitchen and the Financial District. In 2008, McMahon was elected into the current 13th district which McCain narrowly won. I made sure McMahon has no trouble here by connecting the district to Manhattan by the Hudson River and the Staten Island Ferry route. Even though about 1/3 of the district is in Manhattan, that portion voted more than 80% for Obama so it makes the district Democratic overall. Staten Island barely voted for McCain. McMahon should win easily. Status is Safe Democratic.

14th District Caroline Maloney (D) Upper East Side vs. Jerrold Nadler (D) Upper West Side

Vote totals: Obama 234,406 80%, McCain 56,462 19%

Demographics: 12% Hispanic, 8% Asian and 73% White

Current percentages: Obama 78% McCain 21% Change: Obama +5  

Population: 700,489

Important areas: Queens, Manhattan, Upper West Side, Upper East Side and Astoria. This district loses some minority majority areas in Queens but is kept contiguous with the Queens portion by the Queensboro Bridge and the East River. I gave the district the Upper West Side with Nadler’s home but since most of his current district is in the 8th, I expect him to move there and run in it. Maloney should be safe from any challenge. Status is Safe Democratic.

15th District Charlie Rangel (D) Harlem

Vote totals: Obama 220,118 92%, McCain 18,510 7%

Demographics: 36% African American, 42% Hispanic and 17% White.

Current percentages: Obama 93% McCain 6% Change: Obama -2                          

Population: 700,237

Important areas: Manhattan, Bronx, Hamilton Heights, Harlem and Woodlawn Heights. I made the district more African American by adding in Woodlawn Heights and removing heavily Hispanic Washington Heights. The Triborough Bridge connects the small slice of Queens. Rangel should retire soon and I wanted to make it easier for an African American to replace him. Hispanics should soon cast more votes in the Democratic primary here but right now, African Americans probably make up the majority. Status is Safe Democratic.

16th District Jose Serrano (D) South Bronx

Vote totals: Obama 157,529 94%, McCain 10,205 5% Demographics: 26% African American, 63% Hispanic and 6% White.

Current percentages: Obama 95% McCain 5%Change: Obama -1

Population: 700,237

Important areas: Bronx, South Bronx, University Heights, Mt. Hope and Yankee Stadium! Serrano’s district shifts west a bit to pick up Washington Heights and a few other primarily Hispanic neighborhoods from the 15th. Besides these adjustments, the district remains mostly the same, heavily Hispanic and Democratic. Status is Safe Democratic.

Westchester

17th District Eliot Engel (D) Riverdale

Vote totals: Obama 169,832 61%, McCain 104,965 38%

Demographics: 24% African American, 12% Hispanic and 58% White.

Current percentages: Obama 73% McCain 26% Change: Obama -24

Population: 700,317

Important areas: Bronx, Westchester County, Rockland County, Orange County, Wakefield, Mt. Vernon, and Yonkers. Engel’s district adds all of Rockland County where Obama won 53% of the vote and it adds parts of Orange County that lean Republican (Orange County in 2008 was not colored orange, Obama won it by a few points.) I had to take out parts of the Bronx for population purposes. Overall, I reduced Obama’s percentage from 73% to 61%. This is still a safe enough district for Engel so he should have no trouble with reelection. Status is Safe Democratic.

18th District Nita Lowey (D) Harrison

Vote totals: Obama 187,681 61%, McCain 116,591 38%

Demographics: 10% African American, 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 68% White

Current percentages: Obama 62% McCain 38%

Change: Obama -1

Population: 698,674

Important areas: Westchester County, Yonkers, New Rochelle and White Plains. I removed all of Rockland County, pushed the district to the Putnam County border and removed some Democratic precincts along the river. Lowey’s district is a few points less Democratic but she should have no problem winning reelection. Status is Safe Democratic.

19th District John Hall (D) Dover

Vote totals: Obama 164,634 55%, McCain 134,119 44%

Demographics: 8% African American, 10% Hispanic and 77% White

Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48% Change: Obama +8

Population: 700,453

Important areas: Westchester County, Putnam County, Orange County, Dutchess County, Newburgh, Poughkeepsie and Middletown. Hall keeps his home in the district but it shifts north a bit. It loses southern Orange County while picking up Democratic Newburgh and Poughkeepsie. I also extended a finger into southern Westchester County to pick up Democratic areas there. These changes shift the district a few points to the left. Hall could have a tough race with a strong challenge but for now, he looks very safe. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic.

Upstate

East Upstate

Western Upstate

20th District Scott Murphy (D) Glen Falls

Vote totals: Obama 176,409 54%, McCain 146,305 45%

Demographics: 91% White

Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48% Change: Obama +6

Population: 700,742

Important areas: Dutchess County, Columbia County, Renneslar County, Schenectady County, Saratoga County, Washington County, Warren County, Essex County, Clinton County, Schenectady, Troy and Saratoga Springs. Jim Tedisco (R) ran against Scott Murphy for this seat and lost by a few hundred votes. Since Tedisco is from Saratoga County, I removed all the Republicans parts of it. Due to population growth, I needed to move the district north into Clinton County for population purposes but since Clinton County is Democratic, this helps strengthen the district. Adding Schenectady while removing Republican parts of Delaware County helped make this district safer. Murphy is a freshman in Congress so a strong challenge can still unseat him but he is safer now. Status is Likely Democratic.

21st District Paul Tonko (D) Amsterdam

Vote totals: Obama 180,169 55%, McCain 144,547 44%

Demographics: 5% African American, 90% White

Current percentages: Obama 58% McCain 40% Change: Obama -6

Population: 700,462

Important areas: Albany County, Schohane County, Otsego County, Herkimer County, Fulton County, Montgomery County, Saratoga County, Albany. The 21st district grows more Republican by losing Schenectady and Troy. I added Otsego and Herkimer Counties. Otsego is marginal but Herkimer is heavily Republican. These changes drop Obama’s percentage from the high 50’s to 54%. Tonko is also new but since he has heavily Democratic Albany in his district, it should protect him unless he faces a very strong challenge. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic.

22nd District Maurice Hinchey (D) Hurley vs. Eric Massa (D) Corning

Vote totals: Obama 172,318 54%, McCain 142,676 45%

Demographics: 89% White

Current percentages: Obama 59% McCain 39% Change: Obama -11

Population: 698,990

Important areas: Ulster County, Orange County, Sullivan County, Delaware County, Broome County, Tioga County, Tompkins County, Chemung County, Steuban County, Kingston and Binghamton. I weakened Hinchey to protect other Democrats. I removed heavily Democratic Ithaca in Tompkins County while adding some rural territory nearby that leans Republican. Hinchey retains his home and it should be hard for a Republican challenger to unseat him since he is entrenched here. I slipped in Eric Massa’s home in Corning but since I placed almost no other territory here currently in Massa’s district, Hinchey should win a primary against Massa who was elected in 2008. Status is Safe Democratic.

23rd District Bill Owens (D) Plattsburgh

Vote totals: Obama 154,639 54%, McCain 124,322 44%

Demographics: 92% White

Current percentages: Obama 52% McCain 47% Change: Obama +5

Population: 698,458

Important areas: Clinton County, Franklin County, St. Lawrence County, Hamilton County, Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, Onondaga County, Syracuse and Watertown. Owens is the newest Democrat in Congress due to his upset victory here over Conservative Doug Hoffman in a special election last November. To protect Owens, I removed all of Oneida County which leans Republican while adding about 1/3 of heavily Democratic Syracuse. These changes bolster Obama’s performance by five points and although they do not completely protect Owens, he should be safe enough. Status is Safe/Likely Democratic

24th District Michael Arcuri (D) Utica

Vote totals: Obama 166,172 54%, McCain 134,215 44%

Demographics: 6% African American, 88% White

Current percentages: Obama 51% McCain 48% Change: Obama +7

Population: 698,920

Important areas: Onondaga County, Oneida County, Madison County, Chenango County, Otsego County, Delaware County, Cortland County, Tompkins County, Ithaca, Syracuse and Rome (not in Italy.) Arcuri won only 51%-49% when I thought he would have no trouble winning reelection. He was elected only in 2006 so he needs time to get entrenched. I helped protect Arcuri by removing some rural counties that Obama or McCain barely won. The district used to be primarily rural. I added in Cornell University in heavily Democratic Ithaca and I added in heavily Democratic parts of Syracuse too. These changes make Obama’s margin seven points larger than the current district. If the district did not include Oneida County, Obama’s performance would be higher. Since Arcuri lives in Oneida County, he is pretty popular there so he needed to worry about candidates pilling up margins in the rural counties. Not anymore, Arcuri looks safe here. Status is Safe Democratic.

25th District Dan Maffei (D) Dewitt

Vote totals: Obama 186,077 57%, McCain 136,799 42%

Demographics: 11% African American, 5% Hispanic, and 82% White

Current percentages: Obama 56% McCain 43% Change: Obama +2

Population: 697,859

Important areas: Onondaga County, Cayuga County, Seneca County, Ontario County, Yates County, Wayne County, Monroe County, Rochester and Syracuse. Maffei won this district easily in 2008 so his district did not much strengthening. I removed most of Syracuse to protect the 23rd and 24th districts but I had to extend the 25th through Syracuse to connect to Dewitt, Maffei’s home. I added in the rural counties such as Cayuga, Seneca, Ontario and Yates so other districts would not hold them. Those counties are marginal. Maffei should have no trouble winning under the new lines because I added in most of heavily Democratic Rochester. Maffei should have no complaints. Status is Safe Democratic

Buffalo/Rochester area



26th District Chris Lee (R) Clarence

Vote totals: Obama 136,910 42%, McCain 183,059 56%

Demographics: 94% White

Current percentages: Obama 46% McCain 52% Change: Obama -8

Population: 698,474

Important areas: Erie County, Cattaraugus County, Niagara County, Genesee County, Wyoming County, Livingston County, Monroe County, Allegany County, Steuban County, Schuyler County, Batavia and Hornell. I wanted to make Lee very safe so he could take away areas that could weaken Democratic incumbents. I removed some Democratic Buffalo suburbs in Erie County while adding in Republican suburbs in Erie County. I removed a few voting districts in Monroe County too. The new territory I added was rural counties along the Pennsylvania border that are currently in the 29th district. These changes make Lee safer and hopefully the only Republican in the New York Congressional delegation. Status is Safe Republican.

27th District Brian Higgins (D) South Buffalo District

Vote totals: Obama 187,563 55%, McCain 145,799 43%

Demographics: 7% African American, 87% White

Current percentages: Obama 54% McCain 44% Change: Obama +2

Population: 698,914

Important areas: Chautauqua County, Erie County, Buffalo and Tonawanda. Higgins seems safe in his district but to strengthen him, I removed Republican precincts in eastern Erie County to put them in the 26th district. I added suburban territory that leans Democratic around Tonawanda. These changes increase Obama’s performance just a bit and protect Higgins who appears to be popular in this district. Status is Safe Democratic.

28th District Louise Slaughter (D) Fairport

Vote totals: Obama 193,491 61%, McCain 119,737 38%

Demographics: 15% African American and 76% White

Current percentages: Obama 69% McCain 30% Change: Obama -16

Population: 698.682

Important areas: Erie County, Niagara County, Orleans County, Monroe County, Buffalo, Niagara Falls and Rochester. To strengthen the 25th and 27th districts, I made the 28th much more Republican. I removed most of Rochester while adding marginal suburban areas currently in the 26th and the 29th districts. Even though Obama’s performance drops by 16 points, this is still the most Democratic district in Upstate New York. Status is Safe Democratic

• KY-Sen: I’ve never heard of Bill Johnson before, but bringing six figures to the table is bound to gain some attention. The western Kentucky businessman, who’s running in the Republican Senate primary, said he’s loaning himself $250,000 to try and garner some notice in the big-$ primary between Trey Grayson and Rand Paul.

• LA-Sen: I never thought I’d see the day when urea formaldehyde would become a campaign issue, but Democrats are hoping to use it against David Vitter in the Bayou State. Vitter (who has the backs of Louisiana’s large chemical industry) has been placing a hold on a new EPA administrator’s nomination, partly over concerns that the EPA will more heavily regulate formaldehyde. Unfortunately for Vitter, more than 34,000 Louisiana residents have first-hand experience with urea formaldehyde, outgassing from the paneling of their FEMA-provided post-Katrina trailers.

• MA-Sen: Republican State Sen. Scott Brown has an uphill fight in this month’s special election to overcome the state’s Dem lean and perhaps sentimental desires to keep Ted Kennedy’s seat in Democratic hands. Still, he got an endorsement from the state’s most popular conservative: Red Sox great Curt Schilling.

• NH-Sen: Salt shaker at the ready? ARG has a new poll out of general election matchups in the New Hampshire Senate race, showing a single-digit edge for Republican AG Kelly Ayotte over Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes, 43-36 (their last poll, from September, also gave Ayotte a 7-pt edge). They also poll Hodes against conservative upstart Ovide Lamontagne for the first time, and, in a bit of a head-scratcher, find a similar margin for the less-known and, one would think, less electable Lamontagne, who leads Hodes 37-31.

• MI-Gov: Here’s a Rasmussen poll that slipped our notice over the holidays; as one might expect, Santa Rasmussen had a big lump of coal for John Cherry’s stocking. All three Republicans lead the Democratic Lt. Governor, as other pollsters generally find, but Rasmussen still manages to depart from the other pollsters’ findings: AG Mike Cox, who has generally polled the best against Cherry, here has the smallest edge over him (only 39-34), while loudmouthed right-wing Rep. Pete Hoekstra has the biggest edge (46-32). (This poll was taken before Hoekstra’s grandstanding over the attempted plane bombing, which would serve to raise his name rec outside his western Michigan home turf.) Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard leads Cherry 42-32. One hope for Cherry, though, is that, in terms of favorables, he still has higher unknowns than any of the Republicans, giving him room to grow.

• RI-Gov: Jan. 4 has been penciled in as the official launch date for Lincoln Chafee’s independent campaign for Rhode Island for a while now. With it comes news that (against a backdrop of mediocre fundraising so far) he’ll be dipping into the family fortune to propel his race; he just lent his campaign another $200K after starting it off with a previous $110K. Compared with Dem state Treasurer Frank Caprio’s $1.5 million, Chafee has a lot of ground to make up. Meanwhile, Republicans would still like a candidate… any candidate.

• AL-05: Looks like recent turncoat Parker Griffith is having a busy day today, answering his own phones and making his own coffee. Almost his entire staff resigned en masse today, unwilling to join him on his foray into the Republican fold.

• CA-19: Another sort-of-well-known Republican is scoping out the new open seat in the 19th: former SoS, former Assembly minority leader, and 2004 Senatorial loser Bill Jones is considering the race. Fresno city councilor Larry Westerlund is also looking at the race, which already has state Sen. Jeff Denham and former Fresno mayor Jim Patterson in the GOP field… and, as of this afternoon, former CA-11 Rep. Dick Pombo. (I wonder if Tom McClintock is interested in running here? He’s gotta be feeling restless again, having represented CA-04 for a full year now.)

• MN-01, MN-02, MN-03: We might actually wind up with a Democratic former elected official running in John Kline’s 2nd but not in the theoretically more-vulnerable 3rd next door. Former state Rep. Shelly Madore of Apple Valley (who was defeated by a Republican in 2008) has decided to get into the race in Minneapolis’s southern suburbs. (H/t Andrew.) Speaking of the 3rd, Democratic challenger Maureen Hackett is the first to hit the airwaves with a new radio spot; she faces a primary fight with state PTA president Jim Meffert, and the winner takes on freshman Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen. Finally, as expected, it only took Republican ex-state Rep. Allen Quist a few weeks to start bringing the crazy over in the 1st, as seen in recent comments that beating “radical” Democrats in Washington is a bigger battle than beating terrorism.

• NY-20, NY-Comptroller: Republican John Faso (the former Assembly minority leader and 2006 gubernatorial loser) was getting touted for a number of different races: for a run for Comptroller, against Rep. Scott Murphy in the 20th, or maybe even for NY-Sen-B if no other Kirsten Gillibrand challenger stepped up. It looks like he won’t be doing any of those things, saying it’s “doubtful” he’ll run for anything this year. State party chair Ed Cox is pushing Emil Henry Jr. for the GOP’s Comptroller slot now (Henry, a former Lehman Bros. exec, had earlier been trying to generate some interest for a gubernatorial run, apparently to little avail).

• PA-04: Insiders are leaking that former W.D. Pa. US Attorney (and loyal Bushie) Mary Beth Buchanan is increasingly likely to run against Rep. Jason Altmire this year, although the word is she’ll make her decision “soon.” On the flipside, this may mean the likelihood of state House minority whip Mike Turzai running for the GOP is going down.

• TN-08: Jackson-area physician Ron Kirkland will be joining the GOP field, now that this seat is a more tempting target with the retirement of long-time Democratic Rep. John Tanner. Kirkland joins “farmer” (or agribusiness kingpin, if you prefer)/gospel singer Stephen Fincher, who’s already off to a big fundraising start.

• TX-10: With a nasty hole in the lineup looming with the departure of promising candidate Jack McDonald, here’s a big-time save by veteran Ted Ankrum, who’ll file to take McDonald’s place in the 10th. Ankrum, you might recall, was our 2006 nominee in the 10th, and his strong performance with almost no funding is what drew a lot of Dem attention to the potential winnability of this rapidly-bluening seat. (Speaking of filing, the filing deadline in Texas is today. Primaries are soon, too – March 2nd, with potential run-offs on April 13th. Check out SSP’s full sortable primary calendar, if you haven’t before.)

• GA-SoS: With current Secretary of State Karen Handel resigning midterm in order to pursue her gubernatorial bid, Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue got the chance to hand-pick a successor. 38-year-old state Rep. Jim Cole, a member of the House’s leadership, will serve out the remaining year of her term and then run for a full term in 2010. (UPDATE: Or not. Cole has already turned down Perdue’s offer; former state Sen. Brian Kemp now sounds likely to be offered the job. H/t RuralDem.)

• Mayors: Lt. Gov Mitch Landrieu’s path to be the next mayor of New Orleans looks even easier now. His main opposition, state Sen. Ed Murray, opted to drop out, acknowledging that he didn’t want to suffer through an expensive and racially-divisive (Murray is African-American) campaign.

• NRCC: Looks like we’re not the only ones taking notice of the NRCC’s cash-on-hand problems, as the legacy media start to take notice: Politico observes that right now the NRCC has enough money to fund about one big-name House race, not the dozens they’re trying to put into play with various recruiting successes.

• RNC: Reid Wilson has an interesting catch: the RNC is sending money ($20K) to the local party in the Northern Mariana Islands (popu. 86,000), which, of course, don’t have a voting member of the House or any electoral votes. It looks like it may be a little payback from Michael Steele, who owes his chairmanship to votes from the NMI and other insular territories.

• Polltopia: Politico also belatedly picks up on another favorite theme in the liberal blogosphere: what the hell is up with Rasmussen’s numbers? Nate Silver judiciously examined the issue too, over the weekend, pointing out that Rasmussen’s well-documented “house effects” aren’t necessarily indicative of bias per se. Rasmussen’s defenders, of course, will point to Nate’s ratings of Rasmussen’s accuracy, which are high; fitting, as their numbers do tend to converge with reality in a race’s final weeks (as we saw last November in NJ and VA). Still, one question wasn’t raised in either of these pieces over the weekend: how to hold Rasmussen to account for showing out-of-whack numbers long before the election, before they start to fall in line with everyone else (and when they, by virtue of Rasmussen’s frequent polling, can play a large role in shaping the conventional wisdom about who’s up and who’s down)?

• Maps: A denizen of the forums at Dave Leip’s site has put together an even better set of maps of presidential election results by county, dating back to 1840. (H/t metstotop333.)(D)

• Redistricting: A reminder – if you post an entry in the redistricting contest, please e-mail your .DRF.XML file to jeffmd [at] swingstateproject [dot] com. (Instructions for finding your file are here.) This will make it a lot easier for Jeff to judge entries. And the deadline to submit your entry is fast approaching – Sunday, January 10th at midnight Eastern time. (D)

Also, on the redistricting front, Politics Magazine has a lengthy piece on Democrats’ efforts to avoid getting out-hustled by the GOP in both congressional and state-level redistricting. Hint to Bill Burke’s Foundation for the Future and Brian Smoot’s Democratic Redistricting Trust: Reach out to the redistricting geeks here at the Swing State Project. We’re a great untapped resource. One interesting note: This is the first time since the passage of the Voting Rights Act that the White House (and thus the Department of Justice) will be in Democratic hands during the start-to-finish redistricting process. (D)

• Census: The Census Bureau is rolling out a $340 million ad blitz over the next few months to make sure that everyone knows about the Census and that they need to participate. The rollout includes two ads (directed by Christopher Guest and starring Ed Begley Jr., which ought to get the right-wingers a-foamin’ at the mouth) during the Super Bowl, but also $80 million in ad outreach to non-English-speaking populations. Talking Points Memo also has a neat observation about Rep. Michele Bachmann, once the Census’s greatest foe but who’s been surprisingly quiet in her criticisms of it lately: she may need to rely on huge Census turnout by Minnesotans to keep Minnesota at 8 seats, and thus, keep her own seat (the likeliest target for elimination if the state needs to drop to 7 and Dems exclusively control the process).  

Overall Plan

This entry in the redistricting contest creates 28 Democratic seats and 0 Republican seats. I expect Peter King to lose against Carolyn McCarthy, Chris Lee to lose against Brian Higgins, two Democrats to win in new districts, and one of Scott Murphy or Bill Owens to lose in a primary.

I aimed for compact districts, by and large. Some districts stretch this a little (e.g., 16 and 18), but most are more compact than they used to be. There are no earmuffs like NY-26. There are no water connections over uninhabited islands like NY-08. There’s no connecting through a Con Ed plant to pick up population from Rikers Island like NY-15. Perhaps the only cheap trick was connecting the new Velázquez district through Prospect Park. I even refrained from drawing a thin tendril from Meeks’s district to King’s house.

I was very careful to ensure that a representative actually lives in a district if I assert that I’m drawing a district for him or her. This was rather constraining in several cases. However, I avoided relying on incumbency to keep districts safe, since most of the NY delegation will retire before the next round of maps goes into effect in January 2023.

Along a similar line, I tried to keep Democratic incumbents with at least some of their base of support. For example, since Massa’s current district runs to the Rochester suburbs, I kept it that way rather than giving him some kind of Buffalo-based or Binghamton-based creation. (But when an incumbent, such as Slaughter, has two very distinct bases of support, I only aimed to keep one of them – in Slaughter’s case, it was Rochester rather than Buffalo.) Our incumbents have worked hard to build relationships with local leaders and activists in their current districts, and I’d rather not take that away from them.

All districts are within 100 votes of the target population, except for the three westernmost districts, which are within 200.

Districts by Geography

On Long Island, I’ve reconfigured the two Suffolk districts into an east-west alignment to even out the Democratic advantage between them. In Nassau, I’ve carved King’s district up between Ackerman (whose district is now almost entirely outside the City) and McCarthy, and placed some Republican areas along the NYC border into Meeks’s and Weiner’s districts.

In Queens, Meeks’s district is roughly the same as before, although it now encompasses some Black and Republican areas in Nassau and Brooklyn. Weiner’s district is still based in Forest Hills, but now spills eastward towards Nassau rather than westward into Brooklyn. Lowey’s new district reaches down into Whitestone. Crowley’s district has been consolidated into a compact area of western Queens, and Maloney still has about the same area.

Most of Brooklyn is in VRA districts. Velázquez’s district is heavily Democratic, since I found that I had to use almost entirely Democratic precincts in order to build a 48% Hispanic district. However, I found that it was easy to build solidly Democratic 50% Black districts that had spare capacity to take on Republicans from southern Brooklyn. Therefore, most of southern Brooklyn is divided among the 50% Black VRA districts of Meeks, Towns, and Clarke. Most of the remainder (White Democratic areas like Brooklyn Heights and Park Slope) goes to Nadler, while McMahon and Maloney each represent small areas near the cores of their districts.

Staten Island is in McMahon’s district. If McMahon were to lose in 2010, I would want to split the island across two safely Democratic districts.

Lower Manhattan is split between McMahon (who needs the Democratic votes) and Nadler. Midtown and Uptown up to about 96th are split between Nadler and Maloney, as is roughly the case today. Harlem is still in Rangel’s district.

In the Bronx, Serrano’s district is substantially similar to its current form, although Rangel and Engel both get some of his current Democratic Hispanic votes. The rest is split among two of the districts districts that extend up into Westchester and beyond.

I have divided the northern Metro Area into four districts. Two (Engel and Lowey) have significant Democratic populations from New York City, which allows Engel to take Republican precincts from further Upstate. Hall also extends through Democratic areas nearly to NYC, which allows him to take Republican precincts from further Upstate as well. In particular, Rockland County is carefully divided between Republican precincts (which go to Engel) and Democratic precincts that can be used elsewhere. This allows me to create a fourth new district in the Hudson Valley, which goes from Poughkeepsie down to New City.

I split the Capital Region into two districts, one for Tonko and one for either Murphy or Owens. I judged Owens’s current district too tenuous to maintain in its existing form, so I split the North Country into three parts to attach to Maffei’s, Arcuri’s, and Murphy or Owens’s districts.

In Central New York, Utica and Syracuse each have one district. Binghamton also has a district, which extends eastward to Kingston and Middletown, as it does today. However, I transferred Ithaca from Hinchey to Arcuri in order to solidify Arcuri.

After the 2000 Census, the redistricters drew four districts for Western New York, intending to have them split 3-1 Republican. Their map connected parts of Rochester and Buffalo along a narrow strip to create a packed Democratic district, and then splintered the remaining Democrats among three other districts that they intended for Republicans. However, the four-district region as a whole leans Democratic, so one can create four Democratic districts just by giving each of the four districts an equal number of Democrats. In order to prevent Lee from stealing a district, I’ve put his residence into Higgins’s district and have drawn the incumbent-less district so that it has more Democrats than the other three.

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District Summaries

NY-01

Incumbent: Tim Bishop (D) lives in precinct Southampton 6.

Population: 700259

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
75	6	15	2	0	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 1
Obama %	53.91	51
McCain %	45.56	48

Description: District 1 covers the southern half of Suffolk County, from Brentwood and Central Islip out to the Hamptons. It omits a strip of Republican land along the beach opposite Jones Beach and Fire Islands.

The current NY-01 was drawn to favor a former Republican incumbent, Felix Grucci, and contains all of Republican-leaning eastern Suffolk. In order to equalize the Democratic performance of Districts 1 and 2, I’ve reconfigured them so that each one gets a share of Republican-leaning eastern Suffolk. Thus, a large number of people from the North Fork are moving from NY-01 to NY-02, and a large number of people from the neighborhood of Brentwood and Central Islip are moving from NY-02 to NY-01.

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NY-02

Incumbent: Steve Israel (D) lives in precinct Huntington 100 in Dix Hills.

Population: 700383

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
81	8	7	3	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 2
Obama %	53.36	56
McCain %	46.49	43

Description: District 2 covers the northern half of Suffolk County, from Huntington and Commack, out through Coram to the North Fork.

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NY-03

Incumbents: Carolyn McCarthy (D) lives in precinct North Hempstead 111 in Mineola; Peter King (R) lives in precinct Hempstead 36 in Seaford.

Population: 700386

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
73	11	11	3	0	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 3	Old 4
Obama %	53.23	47	58
McCain %	46.04	52	41

Description: District 3 covers Democratic southwestern Nassau County (Hempstead, Garden City, Valley Stream, Freeport) along with a strip of Republican territory on the shore well into Suffolk County.

In 2008, King outperformed McCain significantly in his district, while McCarthy outperformed Obama modestly in her district. In an incumbent-incumbent race, I expect McCarthy to be able to win in a D-leaning district with 22% Black+Hispanic, particularly since about 2/3 of the district’s population comes from her old NY-04.

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NY-04

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman (D) lives in precinct North Hempstead 99 in Roslyn Heights.

Population: 700388

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
79	6	8	6	0	1

63

36

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 3	Old 5
Obama %	52.88	47
McCain %	46.35	52

Description: District 4 covers most of northern and eastern Nassau County, including Levittown, Hicksville, Oyster Bay, and Port Washington.

This coincides in large part with Peter King’s old NY-03. However, it also includes Democratic territory around Plainview and Port Washington, and it excludes the Republican shore. If King moved into this new district, he could conceivably pull an upset if Ackerman has forgotten how to run a competitive race. (This would be similar to how Tim Holden upset George Gekas in central Pennsylvania after they were thrown together in a Republican-leaning district.)

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NY-05

Incumbent: Gregory Meeks (D) lives in precinct Queens 33-28 in St. Albans.

Population: 700255

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
28	50	11	5	0	5

Presidential Voting

	New	Old
Obama %	78.94	89
McCain %	20.73	11

Description: As a VRA district, District 5 covers the Black areas of eastern Queens, St. Albans and Far Rockaway. It also covers several nearby Republican areas: the Five Towns, Rockaway Peninsula, and (through a connection across the Flatbush Ave. Bridge) Sheepshead Bay and Manhattan Beach.

This district achieves its required 50% Black population in southeastern Queens, and then uses its spare capacity to help achieve two goals: 1) It takes Republican votes from the Five Towns that might otherwise help King. 2) It helps break up the large White Republican sections of southern Brooklyn into irrelevant pieces. Currently, Weiner’s district achieves this second goal, but I prefer to use Weiner to inoculate Republican votes in Queens.

One more thing: For historical reasons, Section 5 of the VRA does not apply to Queens, only to the other three major boroughs. I think it would be a good thing to investigate whether Meeks’s district could be broken up to help out McCarthy and Ackerman against King. Meeks could still win a ~40% Black district handily. But maybe there’s a Section 2 thing that I’m not understanding?

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NY-06

Incumbent: Ed Towns (D) lives in precinct 54-56 in East New York.

Population: 700355

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
30	50	13	4	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 10
Obama %	79.82	91
McCain %	19.9	9

Description: As a VRA district, District 6 covers certain Black areas of Brooklyn (East New York, Brownsville, Canarsie, Flatlands). It also covers some nearby Republican areas around Gravesend and Brighton Beach.

This is another “Blacks and Republicans” district that achieves its required 50% Black population in one area, and then stretches out to White southern Brooklyn to split up the McCain votes there.

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NY-07

Incumbent: Yvette Clarke (D) lives in precinct Brooklyn 43-78 in Prospect Gardens.

Population: 700389

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
31	50	9	7	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 11
Obama %	79.31	90
McCain %	20.33	9

Description: As a VRA district, District 7 covers certain Black areas of Brooklyn (Bed-Stuy and Crown Heights). It also covers some nearby Republican areas, such as Mapleton and Bensonhurst.

This is another “Blacks and Republicans” district that achieves its required 50% Black population in one area, and then stretches out to White southern Brooklyn to split up the Republican votes there. Currently, Nadler’s district does this, but I prefer to make Nadler’s district less spectacularly gerrymandered than it is today.

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NY-08

Incumbent: Nydia Veláquez (D) lives in precinct Brooklyn 72-100 in Carroll Gardens.

Population: 700328

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
19	20	48	9	0	4

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 12
Obama %	88.22	86
McCain %	11.14	13

Description: As a VRA district, District 8 covers Hispanic areas of Brooklyn (Bushwick, some of Williamsburg, Boerum Hill, Sunset Park, and Kensington). It connects the two large Hispanic populations with a narrow strip through Prospect Heights and Prospect Park.

The Hispanic population of Brooklyn is barely large and concentrated enough to sustain a high-percentage district. Because of this, I avoided putting any nearby non-Hispanic areas in the district, such as Park Slope, Greenpoint, or the Republican sections of southern Brooklyn.

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NY-09

Incumbent: Jerrold Nadler (D) lives in precinct Manhattan 35-67 on the Upper West Side.

Population: 700352

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
52	11	18	16	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 8
Obama %	85.33	74
McCain %	13.85	25

Description: District 9 runs from the UWS, through Chelsea, and over to the LES. Then it crosses the Brooklyn and Manhattan Bridges, and covers several neighborhoods in Brooklyn: Brooklyn Heights, Park Slope, Red Hook, and Bay Ridge.

The Brooklyn portion of the district consists (by and large) of White Democratic neighborhoods. These are the neighborhoods that are not covered by the VRA districts.

I would ideally like to extend this district far enough down into Bay Ridge so that McMahon’s district would contain none of Brooklyn. However, it is difficult to do this and still have the district reach Nadler’s apartment on 70th St. In the end, I’m satisfied that McMahon’s district is sufficiently Democratic.

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NY-10

Incumbent: Mike McMahon (D) lives in precinct Staten Island 61-35 on the northern part of the island (I don’t know neighborhood names).

Population: 700426

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
72	7	11	8	0	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 13
Obama %	57.29	49
McCain %	41.95	51

Description: District 10 covers all of Staten Island, part of Bay Ridge in Brooklyn (connected by the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge), and the western half of Lower Manhattan (connected by the Staten Island Ferry).

The existing NY-13 was drawn to favor former Republican congressman Vito Fossella. A major goal of any Democratic redistricting should be to make this into a safe Democratic district. I accomplish this by adding a large portion of heavily Democratic Lower Manhattan. If there were a Republican incumbent, I would have split Staten Island into two pieces in order to guarantee the Republican’s defeat. However, that seems like overkill to shore up the seat for a sitting Democrat.

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NY-11

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney (D) lives in an unknown precinct on the Upper East Side (I’m assuming between 59th and 96th).

Population: 700270

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
70	4	13	4	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 14
Obama %	77.09	78
McCain %	22.06	21

Description: District 11 covers the Upper East Side and Midtown East in Manhattan, Astoria and Long Island City in Queens, and Greenpoint and Williamsburg (the non-Hispanic parts) in Brooklyn. Although not visible on the Brooklyn map, the two sections of Brooklyn are connected by a couple precincts near the waterfront.

This district is very similar to Maloney’s current district.

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NY-12

Incumbent: Charlie Rangel (D) lives in precinct Manhattan 70-31 in Harlem.

Population: 700336

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
13	31	51	3	0	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 15
Obama %	93.62	93
McCain %	5.79	6

Description: District 12 covers Harlem (including Spanish Harlem) and Washington Heights, as well as a bit of the South Bronx. It has majority-minority (in fact, majority Hispanic) population.

Although this district has traditionally been considered a Black district, it is now majority Hispanic. There is a strong possibility of a Hispanic representative once Rangel retires or is driven out of office because of corruption.

I live in this district.

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NY-13

Incumbent: Joe Crowley (D) lives in precinct Queens 30-45 in Woodside.

Population: 700405

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
33	6	38	19	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 7
Obama %	71.26	79
McCain %	27.99	20

Description: District 13 covers several neighborhoods in Queens, including Jackson Heights, Corona, and Middle Village.

This district is quite different from the old NY-07, which reaches into the Bronx. I’m not sure why NY-07 has such a strange shape, and I see no good reason for it.

District 13 is a rare diverse district in the age of VRA-based segregation – no racial group exceeds 40% of the population. If Crowley retires in the coming decade, one could imagine a White, Hispanic, or Asian representative from this district. The Black voting population is actually slightly lower than 6%, since the district includes 8000 Black inmates at Rikers Island.

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NY-14

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner (D) lives in precinct Queens 28-36 in Forest Hills.

Population: 700334

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
41	8	19	24	0	8

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 9
Obama %	66.67	55
McCain %	32.64	44

Description: District 14 covers several neighborhoods in Queens. Starting at Howard Beach, it comes up through Ozone Park to Forest Hills, and then goes eastbound along the LIE to Little Neck. It also contains Great Neck in Nassau County, in order to isolate the Republican voters there from Peter King.

This district is more Democratic than the existing NY-09. That’s because the existing map uses NY-09 to fracture the Republican vote in southern Brooklyn. Instead, I use Meeks’s more heavily Democratic district to fracture Republicans in Brooklyn.

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NY-15

Incumbent: José E. Serrano (D) lives in precinct Bronx 77-74 in the South Bronx.

Population:700362

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
2	32	62	2	0	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 16
Obama %	94.60	95
McCain %	5.20	5

Description: District 15 covers the South Bronx, including the area just west of the Whitestone Bridge (Soundview?). It has a 60% Hispanic supermajority.

This district is substantially similar to the existing NY-16. However, it allows Engel to take some more Democratic votes from around Fordham campus.

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NY-16

Incumbent: Eliot Engel (D) lives in precinct Bronx 81-67 in Riverdale.

Population: 700249

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
53	14	26	5	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 17
Obama %	63.08	62
McCain %	36.26	38

Description: District 16 covers the northwestern Bronx (Riverdale, Kingsbridge, Bedford Park) and Yonkers. It then crosses the Hudson and picks up Republican areas along the New Jersey border in Rockland and Orange Counties.

Because this district gets so many Democratic votes from the Bronx and Yonkers, it can very selectively include only Republican voting districts in Rockland County. Many voting districts in Rockland County are either very Republican or very Democratic (possibly because of the separation of the Orthodox Jewish communities from other towns up there). As a result, the remainder of Rockland County can provide a core of Democratic votes for a district in the Hudson Valley. Obama lost District 16’s portion of Rockland County (134k population) by 16%, but won the remainder (167k population) by 23%.

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NY-17

Incumbent: Nita Lowey (D) lives in precinct Harrison 10 near Rye.

Population: 700372

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
43	23	21	10	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 18
Obama %	71.91	62
McCain %	27.53	38

Description: Within New York City, District 17 covers Whitestone in Queens and most of the eastern Bronx. It then continues along the shore (New Rochelle and Rye).

Nita Lowey used to represent parts of Bronx and Queens, and she can again. In compensation for taking away most of her current district’s population, I’ve given her a heavily Democratic district majority-minority district.

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NY-18

Incumbent: John Hall (D) lives in precinct Dover 1 in Dover Plains.

Population:700344

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
74	11	10	3	0	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 19
Obama %	58.07	51
McCain %	41.05	48

Description: District 18 starts in Democratic Mt. Vernon next to the Bronx, and snakes its way up through Democratic White Plains to rural Putnam and Dutchess Counties.

This district is heavily Democratic, without cutting into the Hudson Valley precincts that I need for the new Democratic-leaning District 19.

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NY-19

Incumbent: None.

Population: 700376

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
71	11	12	3	0	3

Presidential Voting

	New
Obama %	58.20
McCain %	40.79

Description: District 19 lies in the Hudson Valley, including Poughkeepsie, Newburgh, Peekskill, and the Democratic portions of Rockland County. (See description of District 16 above.)

Although this district strongly favors Democrats at the federal level, there is no Democratic incumbent. Furthermore, the state legislators are all Republican, as are the mayors of Poughkeepsie and Newburgh. I believe that a Democratic non-politician along the lines of Hall, Murphy, or Owens would claim this seat. However, if the DCCC failed to recruit effectively, this district could fall to a local Republican.

Neither Sue Kelly (lost to Hall in 2006), John Sweeney (lost to Gillibrand in 2006), nor Jim Tedisco (lost to Murphy in 2009) lives in this district.

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NY-20

Incumbent: Paul Tonko (D) lives in precinct Amsterdam city 1.

Population: 700342

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
89	6	3	1	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 21
Obama %	54.49	58
McCain %	43.68	40

Description: District 20 contains part of the Capital Region, including Albany.

This district is slightly less Democratic than its predecessor. Most notably, it gives up Democratic Schenectady and Troy in order to make the new District 21 safer.

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NY-21

Incumbent: Scott Murphy (D) lives in precinct Glens Falls 5; Bill Owens (D) lives in precinct Plattsburgh 3.

Population: 700425

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
92	3	2	1	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 20	Old 23
Obama %	54.90	51	52
McCain %	43.41	48	47

Description: District 21 runs along the Vermont border, containing Schenectady, Troy, Saratoga Springs, and Plattsburgh.

The existing NY-20 and NY-23 were both created for Republican incumbents, and neither is particularly attractive to Democrats. Rather than contort district boundaries to preserve seats for both of these Blue Dogs, I prefer to carve up the moderate/Republican North Country to give safer seats to one of them and to Arcuri.

In a head-to-head primary, both candidates would have a reasonable chance of winning, since many of the Democratic votes would come from around Schenectady and Troy, which are presently in Tonko’s district.

Of course, there’s a real chance that one of these incumbents will lose in 2010. If that happens, then this district should favor the Democratic incumbent. Jim Tedisco (lost to Murphy) and Doug Hoffman (lost to Owens) both live in this district, but Dede Scozzafava (withdrew against Owens) does not.

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NY-22

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey (D) lives in precinct Hurley 3.

Population: 700380

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
87	5	5	2	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old
Obama %	53.24	59
McCain %	45.30	39

Description: District 22 contains Kingston, Middletown, Binghamton, and Elmira.

Giving Democratic Ithaca to Hinchey only makes sense if one is trying to pack Upstate Democratic votes in order to create Republican seats. This new district has enough Democrats from Binghamton and the Hudson Valley to be easily winnable.

Hinchey (born 1938) will probably retire during the next decade, and Republicans could make a play for this district in an open-seat election. However, the eastern part of the district is quickly becoming more Democratic (see Sue Kelly and John Sweeney), and I would expect Democrats to hold the seat.

Since the average district size increased by 4%, this new District 22 can span about the same amount of longitude without looking quite as goofy as the old NY-22.

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NY-23

Incumbent: Michael Arcuri (D) lives in precinct Utica 4.

Population: 700382

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
92	3	2	2	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 24
Obama %	52.62	50
McCain %	45.66	48

Description: District 23 contains Potsdam, Utica, and Ithaca.

Arcuri looked surprisingly weak in the 2008 election. However, with the advantage of incumbency and a district that’s a few percent safer, he should be able to hold his seat. He is one of the few Democratic incumbents who may stay in Congress until 2030.

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NY-24

Incumbent: Dan Maffei (D) lives in precinct DeWitt 3 near Syracuse.

Population: 700338

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
87	7	2	2	1	2

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 25
Obama %	55.45	56
McCain %	42.76	43

Description: District 24 contains Syracuse and Watertown.

This is the safest of the seats in the central part of the state. Its Democratic performance is similar to Maffei’s old district, but it crucially takes its non-Syracuse Democratic votes from the North rather than from the Rochester area. This allows the Rochester area to be split into Democratic-leaning districts.

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NY-25

Incumbent: Eric Massa (D) lives in Corning city.

Population: 700395

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
91	4	2	1	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 29
Obama %	52.64	48
McCain %	45.92	50

Description: District 25 is based in the Rochester area, containing the eastern part of the city, and most of the northeastern suburbs. It goes along the Lake Ontario coast as far East as Oswego, and also extends to the Finger Lakes Region (Auburn, Geneva, Canandaigua) and down through rural areas to the Pennsylvania border.

This district is much safer for Massa than the old NY-29.

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NY-26

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter (D) lives in precinct Perinton 14 in Fairport.

Population: 700170

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
80	12	5	2	0	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 28
Obama %	53.00	68
McCain %	45.73	30

Description: District 26 is also based in the Rochester area, containing the western part of the city and most of the suburbs. It contains rural areas (including Livingston and Allegany Counties) going South to the Pennsylvania border.

To create more safe Democratic seats in western New York, I give Slaughter’s Buffalo Democrats to the new NY-27 and give some of her Rochester Democrats to Massa in the new NY-25.

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NY-27

Incumbent: None.

Population: 700157

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
84	11	2	2	1	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 26
Obama %	54.55	46
McCain %	43.90	52

Description: District 27 is based in the Buffalo area, containing the northern part of the city, Niagara Falls, and rural areas to the North and East.

On a map, it may appear as though this district should “belong” to Lee, if he decided to move into it. However, only about 300k of the residents are part of Lee’s current district. Nearly as many (270k) are part of Slaughter’s current district, and the remainder are largely Democrats from Higgins’s district.

Because there is no Democratic incumbent here, I’ve made it the safest Democratic seat of western New York. If Lee did decide to run here, he would face a very tough district full of Democrats who don’t know him. Furthermore, Lee is not a strong candidate. Despite a bitter three-way Democratic primary in 2008 that produced a weak candidate, Lee barely managed to outpoll McCain in his current district.

Byron Brown (mayor of Buffalo) and Alice Kryzan (lost to Lee in 2008) live in this district. Jon Powers (lost in the primary to Kryzan in 2008) and Tom Reynolds (retired in 2008) do not. I don’t know about Jack Davis (lost several times).

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NY-28

Incumbents: Brian Higgins (D) lives in precinct South 19 in Buffalo; Chris Lee (R) lives in an unknown precinct in Clarence.

Population: 700176

Population % by Race

Wh	Bl	Hisp	Asn	Nat	Oth
85	8	4	1	1	1

Presidential Voting

	New	Old 27
Obama %	54.23	54
McCain %	44.11	44

Description: District 28 is based in the Buffalo area, containing the southern part of the city, the eastern and southern suburbs, and rural Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Counties.

Higgins would certainly beat Lee in an incumbent-incumbent matchup. A considerable majority of the population comes from Higgins’s old district, and the district leans safely to Democrats.

Quick update on the app. Because so many of you have been using the app (and it was discussed on the DailyKos front page last weekend) and because the test data for NY is so large, we’ve blown thru my bandwidth quota for the month. I’ve upped it a couple of times, and we’re over that, too. So far it seems the site still works, thanks to the grace of my host.

But, I’ve made a change so that once you load the date for a state, the app saves it on your machine in the same place as the drf.xml files. If you then refresh the browser and reload the state, it grabs the data from your machine, saving a lot of bandwidth and…bonus…making it a lot faster to load.

I’ve tested this with NY, NV and a couple of other states (and with combinations of voting districts and block groups) and it seems to work. Please let me know if you have problems.

(Also, I know about the Indiana voting district problem and will get to that soon.)

Thanks.

Nathaniel90’s diary motivated me to make my own Republican gerrymander of Texas. By the time I was done, I was kinda shocked at how “ugly” some of my districts looked, notably TX-7, TX-8, and TX-10 all reaching into downtown Houston to dilute a new minority district, and how TX-21, TX-17, TX-10, and a new Republican TX-35 were snaked across central Texas so as to keep all these seats in Republican control for 10 years and likely dislodge Edwards. My inspiration here was a comment by TXMichael to separate Bell, Williamson, and McLennan into three different districts. Originally I was going to allow Edwards to be “safe” and create a district for him out of these three counties and Travis, but I think the TX Republican party is more likely to try something like this.

TX-7 is the most “at risk” GOP district in the state at 56% White. Most GOP districts are close to 60% white. All Democratic seats, except the Travis county based TX-25 are over 75% minority.

Full State, Top Half

Full State, Bottom Half

El Paso

Dallas/Fort Worth This is what I am the most proud of. Sessions and Marchant are safe, and a new Democratic seat is made on Dallas’ west side.

Harris CountyA new Republican seat is made. I’m shocked at how I had to have TX-7, TX-8 and TX-10 reach into downtown to grab leftover minority precincts. If a 36th seat comes around, I think this is where it’s going to go providing an extra buffer for TX-7 and TX-34 (TX-2, TX-29, and TX-34 are all green and border each other, sorry)

Travis County

Bexar County

Central Texas OMG! What did I do to TX-10, TX-17, TX-21, TX-31, and TX-35? I eliminated Chet Edwards with a can not win district and made a new rural Republican seat. Sucks to be Chet, I guess the Republicans can make things worse.

Districts in Review:

TX-1 (Blue): Louie Gohmert (R)  Smith County, Nacadoches, and northern East Texas. 67% White

Contracts in size, loses a few counties, but still the same East Texas district full of people JSmith does not tolerate 😛

TX-2 (Dark Green): Ted Poe (R) Far East Harris County, Beaumont, and Jasper. 65% White

Loses some Harris County precincts and expands to become mostly based out of East Texas grabbing all of Jefferson county and several other rural East Texas counties.

TX-3 (Purple): Sam Johnson (R) Collin County, Plano. 65% White

Contract, contract, contract. Loses all Dallas precincts and grabs a handful of new Collin county precincts in exchange.

TX-4 (Red): Ralph Hall (R) Rural Colin County, Rockwall County, Paris. 75% White

Almost no changes. Only changes were the addition of Wood County and Loss of all of Cass County.

TX-5 (Yellow): Jeb Hensarling (R) Mesquite, Grand Prairie, Ellis County, Athens County. 60% White.

Hensarling’s district rotates clockwise in Dallas county, losing some of the stuff on his north end and reaches around to the southwest corner. Additionally, the addition of Ellis county gives TX-5 a rural county with a large population.

TX-6 (Sea Green): Joe Barton (R) Arlington, Johnson County. 59% White

In Tarrant, TX-6 grabs a little more of downtown. The rest of the district is entirely different. Gone is the I-45 stretch to Centervile, instead the Heavy straight-ticket GOP county of Johnson is added.

TX-7 (Grey): John Culberson (R) West Houston. 56% White

The most “vulnerable” GOP district in the state. relatively the same, bleeds some precincts out of Jersey Village and few more out of Spring Village. Grabs some new precincts out of West University Place and Bellaire.

TX-8 (Deep Purple): Kevin Brady (R) The Woodlands, West Downtown Houston. 64% White

The first “special” district. TX-8 gives up all of the rural East Texas districts (no more Jim Turner to dislodge) and now reaches it’s tentacle from Montgomery county into downtown Houston grabbing as many leftover minority districts as it can find.

TX-9 (Light Blue): Al Green (D) Southwest Houston, Rosenburg. 32% Black, 29% Hispanic, 24% White

TX-9 begins a run towards Fort Bend County. Despite the Delay reputation left with Sugarland and Fort Bend, Obama got 49% in this County. TX-9 reaches to Rosenburg to grab all the minority precincts to make a safe TX-22.

TX-10 (Bright Pink): Mike McCaul (R) Northeast Travis, North Harris, Downtown Houston, Temple. 59% White

The next special district. A lot of this would be easier is McCaul did not live in Travis County. Some Travis counties were shed, as was Burleson, Austin, and some of Waller county. The district gains by grabbing those other minoirty precincts in Harris that TX-8 could not get and reach around College Station to Bell County and grabs as much as it can from this shifting democratic county.

TX-11 (Lime Green): Mike Conaway (R) San Angelo, Midland, Odessa. 57% White

Not many changes.Grabs Coryell and Hamilton County, burns Kimble, Mason, Llano, and Gillespie.

TX-12 (Blue): Kay Granger (R) North West Tarrant County. 59% White.

Not much change. Loses some land to TX-6 and takes some downtown precincts from TX-24.

TX-13 (Peach): Mac Thornberry (R) Panhandle. 67% White.

Loses no land, grabs a handful of new counties, including Deaf Smith, Archer, Young, and Castro, and Parmer.

TX-14 (Safari Green): Ron Paul (R) Galveston, Aransas, La Grange. 55% White

Om nom nom, land. TX-14 grows and grows a lot. Goodbye Wharton county, hello I-10 corridor and lands north of Corpus Christie. Don’t let the low numbers of Whites fool you, this is libertarian land that loves Ron Paul crazies.

TX-15 (Orange): Ruben Hinojosa (D) McAllen, Harlengen. 87% Hispanic.

If TX-14 was scarfing food, TX-15 is bulimic. It contracts to just these two cities.

TX-16 (Nuclear Green) Sylvester Reyes (D) El Paso. 81% Hispanic

I think it bleed 3 precincts total. No change.

TX-17 (Dark Purple) Chet Edwards (D) Waco, Hood County, Corsicana, Huntsville, San Jacinto County. 67% White.

Okay, Chet Edwards should have been eliminated in 2004, but he wasn’t and he’s a BAMF. The addition of College Station should have finished him off, except the legislature forgot Aggies are idiots (if you live in Texas, you know the jokes and you are laughing) and will vote for someone only if they wear their A&M class ring. First thing to do, get rid of A&M. He now has Sam Houston University in Huntsville and the entire backwoods region north of Houston. My only regret with this district? Getting rid of Johnson county, maybe I should have kept Johnson and eliminated Hood instead. Oh well . . . Either ways, behold the end of Rep. Edwards.

TX-18 (Yellow) Sheila Jackson-Lee (D) Downtown Houston. 51% Black, 34% Hispanic

Grabs a lot of area on the South side of Houston and burns stuff near Jersey Village. I’m surprised I got a 51% black district.

TX-19 (Puke Green) Randy Neugenbauer (R) Rural West Texas, Lubbock. 61% White.

Grabs Erath and Andrews County, not many other changes

TX-20 (Light Pink) Charlie Gonzales (D) Downtown San Antonio. 72% Hispanic.

Contraction. Sam shape, just loses a few precincts on each side.

TX-21 (Burnt Red) Lamar Smith (R) North Bexar County, Hayes County, McMullen County. 57% White.

WHAT IS THIS THING?!?!?! The most altered district in Texas is what it is. North San Antonio is the only part that is the same. It adds barely democratic Hayes county, and lost of other rural counties on the east side of Austin/San Antonio . My surprise was how far south it had to reach to get enough voters.

TX-22 (Dirt Brown) Pete Olson (R) Fort Bend County, North Brazoria County, Wharton, Austin, Waller Counties and Far West Harris County (including Katy). 58% White.

TX-22 gives up on Galveston county and lots of the urban parts of Fort Bend. In exchange it reaches out of Houston and goes for rural lands. The Addition of Katy in Houston is the most straight ticket republicans you can find, anywhere.

TX-23 (Sea Blue) Ciro Rodriguez (D) South Bexar County, Rural lands to El Paso, Del Rio. 67% Hispanic.

Goodbye white northern precincts in Bexar county, hello safe Dem seat for Ciro.

TX-24 (Purple) Kenny Marchant (R). North East Tarrant County.

Goodbye Dallas, Goodbye Denton. Yes, I know Kenny lives in Denton, but he’s gonna have to move, his district moved fast, and he’s going to have to as well. Southlake, Grapevine, etc will cancel out the addition of downtown Fort Worth precincts.

TX-25 (Pink) Lloyd Doggett (D). Austin 43% White, 41% Hispanic.

So much for the 2002 plans to split up Austin, Rep. Doggett comes home and represents the White liberals in his new condensed district.

TX-26 (Grey) Michael Burgess (R) Denton and Cooke Counties. 68% White.

Burgess is going to be real safe for a real long time with this district. All of Denton and Cooke, Burns all of Tarrant.

TX-27 (Gak Green) Solomon Ortiz (D) Corpus Christie to Brownsville. 71% Hispanic.

Grabs all of San Patricio county, besides that, pretty much the same.

TX-28 (Lavender) Henry Cuellar (D) Laredo, Maverick County, Jim Wells County, and North Hidalgo County. 92% Hispanic.

TX-28 grabs a lot of the rural land that was previously held by TX-15. It’s rural growth, but it is still a safe valley seat.

TX-29 (Grey Green) Gene Green (D) East Downtown Houston. 76% Hispanic.

I don’t know if Gene Green can be dislodged via a primary, but this is a safe Democratic district that will elect a Hispanic should he retire in the next decade. Eliminated Baytown.

TX-30 (Peachy) E.B. Johnson (D) South Dallas, Bits around Garland. 42% Black, 35% Hispanic

TX-30 is still an african American district thanks to Duncanville, but it won’t be by 2020. It trades a lot of land around Garland with TX-32 to still be a safe Dem seat.

TX-31 (Goldenrod) John Carter (R) Williamson County, Killeen, College Station. 63% White.

Williamson is moving blue, but the College Station parts should offset it through the decade. Carter is not be vulnerable to a democrat, but he may be vulnerable to an Aggie challenge (see TX-17 rant)

TX-32 (Orange) Pete Sessions (R) Richardson, Garland, Rowlett 62% White.

I don’t know how I did it, but I made a safe Republican TX-32. All the suburbs, all the mansions, none of the risk. Loses West Dallas, gains from TX-5 on the East Side.

TX-33 (Blue) NEW (D) Corckett Hill, West Dallas, Irving. 66% Hispanic.

Safe new Dem seat. Get ready to say “Rep. Rafael Anchia,” if he is not mayor of Dallas by then.

TX-34 (Glowing Green) NEW (R) Clear Lake, North Galveston County, Humble. 58% White.

If Katy is the most Republican part of Harris County, this is the second most. North Galveston is getting whiter and more Republican and Clear Lake continues to hold NASA and the white collar engineers and mansions. It may get closer near the end of the decade due to growth on the north side, but this one will be R and stay that way due to straight ticket voters. Likely new Rep: State Rep. Larry Taylor of Friendswood.

TX-35 (Bright Purple) NEW (R) West Travis County, Northwest Bexar county, Comal County, Llano, Kerrville. 72% White.

Very Republican, very rural with growing exurbs. Don’t let the Travis county parts fool you, that is the swing part of the county. New Rep will be . . .a Republican, who knows.

Conclusion:

20R-12R is going to become 23R-12D. However, even if the republicans controlled the process in 2020, I don’t think they can make more R seats. Hispanics are moving in, and they are taking over. Who knows, by 2020, they might actually start voting.

Let me know what you all think!

As promised a few days ago, I’d post the second part of my proposed New York Senate map. So without further ado, here it is.

I also tried to have the numbers make more sense. The goal was to make the city entirely Democratic (except Staten Island), then to get as many districts out of upstate Democratic centers as possible.

I may have been a tad too aggressive upstate, with three Buffalo Dems, two Rochester Dems, two Syracuse Dems, two Albany Dems, and one Ithaca-Binghamton Dem (in addition to Aubertine).

I also tried to stick to one man-one vote and keep the deviations down, but I couldn’t resist underpacking some Democratic districts and overpacking Republican districts..

UPDATE: Thanks for mentioning Flickr as an alternative. Now the maps display correctly.

Way back in March I mapped Texas using my own low-tech method. Now, using Dave’s redistricting tool with brand new 2009 estimates, I’ve finally taken on Texas the new and improved way. Again I attempted a Republican gerrymander, but using 35 seats instead of 36 (2009 estimates show growth in Texas slowing enough that the state may gain “only” three seats rather than four).

Below the fold…

Some maps:

Dallas-Fort Worth:

Houston:

Really, the map doesn’t look that different from my original computer-painted one, except that there is no “west-central” district, and that affects the shape of several large districts in Central Texas. I will only make comments for districts that are new, substantially altered from their current forms, or statistically amusing.

OVERALL OUTCOME OF A GOP GERRYMANDER IN 2012:

22 Republicans, 13 Democrats (23-12 when Edwards retires, but may revert to 22-13 as districts like the 22nd and 24th diversify)

District 1 – Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler)

Geography: East, from Wood and Smith Counties in the northwest to Sabine County in the southeast

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 68% white

District 2 – Ted Poe (R-Humble)

Geography: Southeast, from Humble and eastern Harris County in the west to the Gulf in Chambers and Jefferson Counties

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 62% white

District 3 – Sam Johnson (R-Plano)

Geography: Entirely within Collin County

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 65% white

Still solidly Republican and plenty white and suburban, but it’s only logical at this point that Collin County have its own district.

District 4 – Ralph Hall (R-Rockwall)

Geography: Northeast, from Grayson, Collin, and Rockwall Counties in the west to the Arkansas and Louisiana borders

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 75% white

District 5 – Jeb Hensarling (R-Dallas)

Geography: Stretching east from Dallas to Wood County in the north and Cherokee County in the south

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 63% white

District 6 – Joe Barton (R-Ennis)

Geography: Stretches south and east from Fort Worth to Johnson, Ellis, and Navarro Counties

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 62% white

Demographically, the district doesn’t change much, but geographically it does. Gone are all those rural southern counties, mostly ceded to Chet Edwards. Barton instead picks up a lot more Fort Worth, and by the end of the 2010s, that may make the district a lot less white and a lot less Republican.

District 7 – John Culberson (R-Houston)

Geography: west Houston

Politics: fairly safe Republican

VRA stats: 59% white

By the end of the decade this may be a swing seat, despite my best efforts to keep it crimson red.

District 8 – Kevin Brady (R-The Woodlands)

Geography: Southeast, from Grimes County in the west to the Louisiana border

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 73% white

Now this is as hardcore a GOP seat as one can draw east of the Hill Country.

District 9 – Al Green (D-Houston)

Geography: south Houston, Mission City, etc.

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 42% black, 38% Hispanic

District 10 – Mike McCaul (R-Austin)

Geography: McLennan and Limestone Counties in the north; in the south, stretches east from Austin to west Harris County

Politics: fairly safe Republican

VRA stats: 51% white, 31% Hispanic

The look of this district changed dramatically as I needed to accommodate a bulging Central Texas population and new seats to the south and east of McCaul’s district. Also, Edwards’ district had to be screwed with, so I gave McCaul part of McLennan County (including George W. Bush’s ranch in Crawford, long represented by a Democrat) and a few Chet-friendly counties like Falls and Robertson, leaving Edwards with tougher territory like Brazos County and a split home base. But really, how much tougher can you make the 17th for a Democrat? And meanwhile, McCaul’s district looks like it’s about to rip from being pulled in too many directions.

District 11 – Mike Conaway (R-Midland)

Geography: West, including Midland and San Angelo

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 62% white

Doesn’t get much more Republican than this.

District 12 – Kay Granger (R-Fort Worth)

Geography: much of Tarrant County, plus Wise and Parker Counties

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 75% white

District 13 – Mac Thornberry (R-Clarendon)

Geography: Panhandle / North, including Amarillo

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 68% white

District 14 – Ron Paul (R-Surfside)

Geography: coastline, from Galveston in the northeast to Refugio County in the southwest

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 58% white, 26% Hispanic

Anyone else think it’s odd that the 13th is in the northwestern-most portion of the state and the 14th just about the southeastern-most?

District 15 – Ruben Hinojosa (D-Mercedes)

Geography: South, from Karnes and DeWitt Counties to the Mexican border

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 82% Hispanic

District 16 – Silvestre Reyes (D-El Paso)

Geography: El Paso

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 81% Hispanic

District 17 – Chet Edwards (D-Waco)

Geography: Central, from Hood and Johnson Counties in the northwest to Brazos, Madison, and Houston Counties in the southeast

Politics: leans Democratic while Edwards runs, likely Republican once he retires

VRA stats: 67% white

All relevant comments listed under District 10.

District 18 – Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-Houston)

Geography: arc around central Houston

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 46% Hispanic, 35% black

Unfortunately for VRA perfectionists I could not get a black plurality here without severely upsetting the balance in other Houston-area districts. Like the “black opportunity” districts in California, Texas’ three VRA black districts are quickly becoming plurality-Hispanic, though turnout models still favor an African-American candidate in seats like this one. If I had made this district less Hispanic, it would only have made the 9th more so. There is simply no way to make both of them much more than 40% black.

District 19 – Randy Neugebauer (R-Lubbock)

Geography: West, including Lubbock and Abilene

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 60% white

District 20 – Charlie Gonzalez (D-San Antonio)

Geography: central San Antonio

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 71% Hispanic

District 21 – Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio)

Geography: Stretches from Kerr and Bandera Counties in the west to Hays County in the east and down to north San Antonio

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 64% white

District 22 – Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land)

Geography: Fort Bend County, southwest Houston

Politics: likely Republican (for now)

VRA stats: 45% white, 25% Hispanic

Demographically, this district is about to pop. No map can simultaneously keep the 9th VRA-protected and secure Culberson, McCaul, and Olson, unless the Republicans cede the new Houston seat (and they definitely don’t have to). If I were them I’d draw a simple district like this that will stay in GOP hands until the clock runs out on Olson (which could well be before the end of the decade).

District 23 – Ciro Rodriguez (D-San Antonio)

Geography: Southwest, from the eastern outskirts of El Paso to south San Antonio

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 71% Hispanic

Rodriguez’s current district was designed for a competitive race between him and Henry Bonilla in 2006. Now that Bonilla is out of Congress it seems probable that the Hispanic pop. here will go up significantly to preempt any trouble Lamar Smith may run into.

District 24 – Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell)

Geography: Dallas-Fort Worth, meandering through Tarrant, Dallas, and Denton Counties

Politics: likely Republican (for now)

VRA stats: 44% white, 35% Hispanic

Another ticking time bomb for the GOP? These middle-class-to-upscale suburban/urban districts are getting a lot harder for Republicans to hold. I suppose I could have made life a lot easier for Marchant by messing with the boundaries in Fort Worth and diluting the heavily white natures of the 12th and 26th, but really, Hispanic numbers are increasing rapidly in just about every urban or suburban county.

District 25 – Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin)

Geography: most of Travis County

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 60% white

District 26 – Mike Burgess (R-Flower Mound)

Geography: Denton and Tarrant Counties

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 69% white

District 27 – Solomon Ortiz (D-Corpus Christi)

Geography: Southeast / coastline, from San Patricio County to the Mexican border

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 72% Hispanic

District 28 – Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo)

Geography: South, from Frio and Atascosa Counties to the Mexican border

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 89% Hispanic (most heavily Hispanic district in the nation? Probably.)

District 29 – Gene Green (D-Houston)

Geography: central and east Houston

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 76% Hispanic

Here’s the deal here: Republicans have never cared for Gene Green, and his district has always been majority-Hispanic and is getting more so. To make this an unambiguous VRA seat, remove Hispanics from nearby Republican districts, and possibly guarantee an ethnicity-based primary challenge, I imagine the GOP packing as many Houston Latinos as they can into this seat.

District 30 – Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas)

Geography: central and south/west Dallas

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 44% black, 35% Hispanic

District 31 – John Carter (R-Round Rock)

Geography: Central, around Williamson and Bell Counties

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 61% white

The explosive growth in and around this district will cause it to shrink dramatically in area.

District 32 – Pete Sessions (R-Dallas)

Geography: north Dallas

Politics: likely Republican

VRA stats: 56% white, 27% Hispanic

I helped Sessions a lot here demographically, but at Marchant’s expense. One could even out the numbers to make both districts about 50% white, 30% Hispanic, but in rapidly diversifying Dallas, that’s not a lastingly secure position for a Republican anyway.

And the new seats:

District 33 – likely to elect a Latino Democrat

Geography: stretches east from Fort Worth to Dallas

Politics: safe Democratic

VRA stats: 65% Hispanic

At long last, a majority-Hispanic Metroplex district, and a second Democratic seat in the area. The Hispanic population should be robust enough to elect a Latino, but the total ethnic minority population is even more overwhelming at 85%. The Texas legislature is likely to cede a new Dallas-Fort Worth seat like this one to the Democrats, in exchange for saving increasingly vulnerable GOP seats in the suburbs and snatching the other two new seats for the Republicans.

District 34 – likely to elect a Republican

Geography: South-central, from east San Antonio to the Hill Country in the north and Victoria County in the southeast

Politics: likely Republican

VRA stats: 53% white, 36% Hispanic

This district will get more Hispanic as time gets on, but for the first decade it should be fine for a military-friendly white Republican.

District 35 – likely to elect a Republican

Geography: north and east Harris County, outskirts of Houston

Politics: safe Republican

VRA stats: 62% white, 23% Hispanic

Packing the Latinos into the 29th made a big difference here, ensuring a GOP victory in Houston’s new district. Unlike Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston still has room for another Republican seat, though the 22nd may switch columns within the next decade.

So there you have it. Texas may gain a 36th district after 2010; we’ll know once the Census numbers are released. But for now, we can be fairly sure there will be 35 at least. And surprisingly, the map isn’t that different for a 35-district Texas from a 36-district Texas.