Fun with Utah, entertaining map

So Utah gains a seat, having no clue about Utah Politics I decided to make a district as ridiculously large as possible while keeping the deviation of population as low as possible.  I knew that most of the population in Utah was around Salt Lake City and the Provo area, but I had no idea it was that concentrated.

CD-01:  Blue deviates from the average district population with +7

CD-02:  Green deviates the least from the district average with -6 people

CD-03:  Purple deviates the most from the district average which is -26 people

CD-04:  I admit that the Red district is packed with people to make it larger.  +25 people from the district average :p

I think CD-04 may be geographically one of the largest not-at-large districts

Redistricting Maryland

 I already did a map with Maryland redistricting in September but now that Obama/McCain election results are incorporated into maps of Maryland, I decided to create a new map this time knowing how each congressional district I made voted for Obama. I decided to do an 8-0 Democratic map without creating a convoluted gerrymander. I also wanted to make sure none of the district violated the Voting Rights Act. If you are confused with the district labeling, CD4 is for the red district while CD8 is for the light purple district. CD3 is for the purple district and CD6 represents the teal district. I think I gerrymandered a bit with the 1st and 3rd Congressional districts but on the most part, I probably avoided a large gerrymander. My main goals here were to shore up Frank Kratovli (D) who barely won in the heavily Republican 1st Congressional district last year. I also wanted to make Roscoe Bartlett’s 6th district too Democratic so he would retire. Here is a link to the current map of Maryland’s Congressional districts: http://http//www.mdp.state.md….

Here is a link for Maryland’s demographic data: http://http//quickfacts.census…

Here is yet another link, this time for 2008 election results in Maryland: http://http//uselectionatlas.o…

Here is the link for the first Maryland map

http://swingstateproject.com/d…

Here are the maps:

West Maryland

East Maryland

Central Maryland

1st District Frank Kratovli (D)

I could not split the eastern shore because the Maryland State Legislature would probably not back that kind of plan. The old district went onto the western shore taking in heavily Republican parts of Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Harford counties. For this plan, I sent the 1st into Democratic Annapolis and up north towards Prince Georges County. Along the way, I slipped in some Democratic parts of Anne Arundel County besides Annapolis and put about 130,000 people in Prince George’s County into the 1st. This raises Obama’s percentage of the vote to 54% which is about the same as my old map. Prince Georges County had high turnout in 2008 because of Obama but the turnout may drop in an off year election, causing trouble for Kratovli. He should still win because the Republican base in the 1st district is in the Eastern Shore which is Kratovli’s base. In 2008, the Republican challenger did well on the western shore. Demographics are 25% African American and 66% White. Status is Likely Democrat.

2nd district Dutch Ruppersberger (D)

By creating a more compact district, I included more Republican areas in the district. Giving the 2nd district more of Baltimore compensates a bit but I still decreased the African American population from 27% to 23%. The 2nd district represents many working class neighborhoods in Baltimore City and Baltimore County and most of those votes should support Democrats except they might lean towards former Governor Bob Ehlrich (R). Unless a candidate like Ehlrich runs, Ruppersberger should have no trouble winning. Obama won 56% of the vote here. Demographics are 23% African American and 68% White. Status is Safe/Likely Democrat.

3rd district John Sarbanes (D)

I removed all of Anne Arundel County and parts of Baltimore County. I replaced those areas with Carroll County, more of Howard County and a bit more of Baltimore City. Even though Carroll County is heavily Republican, the Democratic areas in Howard County, Baltimore City and County make the 3rd district heavily Democratic. Also, I increased the African American percentage from 16% to 23%. In my last map, the 3rd district voted 55% for Obama because I did not have enough of Howard County and too much of Carroll County. Now with these changes, Obama won a solid 60% of the vote. Demographics are 23% African American, 6% Asian and 64% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

4th district Donna Edwards (D)

Originally, this district contained heavily Democratic areas in Prince Georges and Montgomery Counties. In my old map I gave the district some Republican parts of Frederick County. Now this version of the 4th district has part of Carroll County too. The district also does not violate the Voting Rights Act because 50% of the population in my 4th district is African American. Donna Edwards should have no trouble winning here against a Republican. Obama won 75% of the vote here. Demographics are 50% African American, 9% Hispanic and 33% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

5th District Steny Hoyer (D)

Steny Hoyer is the House Majority Leader so he should get whatever kind of district he wants. By removing parts of Prince Georges County and adding Republican parts of Anne Arundel County, the district grows less Democratic. Even though he should win in this district, he may not view it as safe enough for him. Still, the 27% African American population should be enough to protect him. Obama won 57% of the vote here. Demographics are 27% African American and 64% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

6th District Vacant

This district formerly belonged to octogenarian Roscoe Bartlett (R) but since I moved his home out of the 6th, the district is currently vacant. Since I put the majority of the district in Montgomery County, the district turns from heavily Republican to heavily Democratic. I also slipped in a small piece of Prince George’s County which was in the old 8th district and basically caused Chris Van Hollen (D) to win there in 2002. The Republican areas in the west should not be enough to offset Democratic margins here. Obama won 61% of the vote in the new 6th. Demographics are 14% African American, 7% Asian, 12% Hispanic and 64% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

7th District Elijah Cummings (D)

This district also barely meets the VRA standards but it does. It also includes heavily African American and Democratic parts of Baltimore City and County (Obama won 98% of the vote in many of the precincts) but also goes to the Pennsylvania border and includes heavily Republican exurban areas in Baltimore and Harford Counties. Even though the suburban areas are extremely Republican, the district still remains heavily Democratic and Cummings should not have much trouble with reelection. Obama won 66% of the vote here. Demographics are 50% African American and 42% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

8th District Chris Van Hollen (D) v. Roscoe Bartlett (R)

Since Bartlett is very old and this district is anchored in Montgomery County, he should just retire instead of facing a hard race. Van Hollen is a strong candidate with deep pockets. Anyway, Van Hollen’s new district contains most of Frederick County which leans Republican and retains part of Montgomery County which leans Democratic. Obama won 64% of the vote here. Demographics are 14% African American, 11% Asian, 13% Hispanic and 58% White. Status is Safe Democrat

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

View Results

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353 House Districts now have Republican candidates (2 of 2)

A week ago I took a look at our efforts to recruit House candidates for 2010. This time it is the Republicans.

Lots more Districts now have Republican candidates and they are getting wingnuttier all the time.

AZ-04 (Pastor) – D+13,

AR-04 (Ross) – R+7,

CA-06 (Woolsey) – D+23,

CA-13 (Stark) – D+22,

CA-27 (Sherman) – D+13,

CA-28 (Berman) – D+23,

CA-33 (Watson) – D+35,

CA-36 (Harman) – D+12,

CA-51 (Filner) – D+8,

CO-01 (DeGette) – D+21,

GA-04 (Johnson) – D+24,

GA-08 (Marshall) – R+10,

IL-03 (Lipinski) – D+11,

IL-05 (Quigley) – D+19,

IL-07 (Davis) – D+35,

IL-09 (Schakowsky) – D+20,

IL-12 (Costello) – D+3,

IN-02 (Donnelly) – R+2,

IN-07 (Carson) – D+14,

IA-01 (Braley) – D+5,

KS-03 (Moore OPEN) – R+3,

KY-03 (Yarmuth) – D+2,

MD-04 (Edwards) – D+31,

MD-05 (Hoyer) – D+11,

MA-01 (Olger) – D+14,

MA-10 (Delahunt) – D+5,

MI-05 (Kildee) – D+11,

MN-01 (Walz) – R+1,

MN-08 (Oberstar) – D+3,

MO-03 (Carnahan) – D+7,

MO-05 (Cleaver) – D+10,

NV-01 (Berkley) – D+10,

NV-03 (Titus) – D+2,

NJ-03 (Adler) – R+1,

NY-02 (Israel) – D+4,

NY-23 (Owens) – R+1,

NC-01 (Butterfield) – D+9,

NC-11 (Shuler) – R+6,

NC-12 (Watt) – D+16,

ND-AL (Pomeroy) – R+10,

OH-10 (Kucinich) – D+8,

OH-13 (Sutton) – D+5,

OH-16 (Boccieri) – R+4,

OR-05 (Schrader) – D+1,

PA-04 (Altmire) – R+6,

PA-08 (Murphy) – D+2,

PA-11 (Kanjorski) – D+4,

PA-14 (Doyle) – D+19,

PA-17 (Holden) – R+6,

SC-05 (Spratt) – R+7,

TN-05 (Cooper) – D+3,

TX-09 (Green) – D+22,

TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,

TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,

TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,

TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,

VA-08 (Moran) – D+16,

Below the fold for all the details (and bring some eyewash) and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

Also keep an eye out for the great series on Democratic House Candidates by Adam T

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

As we assumed for us so should we assume for them; so all 177 Republican held districts can be considered filled.

176 Democratic held Districts have confirmed GOP candidates:

AL-02 (Bright) – R+16,

AL-05 (Griffith) – R+12,

AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick) – R+6,

AZ-04 (Pastor) – D+13,

AZ-05 (Mitchell) – R+5,

AZ-07 (Grijalva) – D+6,

AZ-08 (Giffords) – R+4,

AR-01 (Berry) – R+8,

AR-02 (Snyder) – R+5,

AR-04 (Ross) – R+7,

CA-01 (Thompson) – D+13,

CA-06 (Woolsey) – D+23,

CA-08 (Pelosi) – D+35,

CA-11 (McNerney) – R+1,

CA-13 (Stark) – D+22,

CA-20 (Costa) – D+5,

CA-27 (Sherman) – D+13,

CA-28 (Berman) – D+23,

CA-30 (Waxman) – D+18,

CA-33 (Watson) – D+35,

CA-36 (Harman) – D+12,

CA-47 (Sanchez) – D+4,

CA-51 (Filner) – D+8,

CA-53 (Davis) – D+14,

CO-01 (DeGette) – D+21,

CO-03 (Salazar) – R+5,

CO-04 (Markey) – R+6,

CO-07 (Perlmutter) – D+4,

CT-02 (Courtney) – D+6,

CT-03 (DeLauro) – D+9,

CT-04 (Himes) – D+5,

CT-05 (Murphy) – D+2,

FL-02 (Boyd) – R+6,

FL-03 (Brown) – D+18,

FL-08 (Grayson) – R+2,

FL-11 (Castor) – D+11,

FL-17 (Meek OPEN) – D+34,

FL-19 (Wexler Special Election) – D+15,

FL-20 (Wasserman Schulz) – D+13,

FL-22 (Klein) – D+1,

FL-23 (Hastings) – D+28,

FL-24 (Kosmas) – R+4,

GA-02 (Bishop) – D+1,

GA-04 (Johnson) – D+24,

GA-08 (Marshall) – R+10,

GA-12 (Barrow) – D+1,

GA-13 (Scott) – D+15,

HI-01 (Abercrombie OPEN) – D+11,

ID-01 (Minnick) – R+18,

IL-02 (Jackson Jr) – D+36,

IL-03 (Lipinski) – D+11,

IL-05 (Quigley) – D+19,

IL-07 (Davis) – D+35,

IL-08 (Bean) – R+1,

IL-09 (Schakowsky) – D+20,

IL-11 (Halvorson) – R+1,

IL-12 (Costello) – D+3,

IL-14 (Foster) – R+1,

IL-17 (Hare) – D+3,

IN-02 (Donnelly) – R+2,

IN-07 (Carson) – D+14,

IN-08 (Ellsworth) – R+8,

IN-09 (Hill) – R+6,

IA-01 (Braley) – D+5,

IA-02 (Loebsack) – D+1,

IA-03 (Boswell) – D+1,

KS-03 (Moore Open) – R+3,

KY-03 (Yarmuth) – D+2,

KY-06 (Chandler) – R+9,

LA-03 (Melancon OPEN) – R+12,

ME-02 (Michaud) – D+3,

MD-01 (Kratovil) – R+13,

MD-03 (Sarbanes) – D+6,

MD-04 (Edwards) – D+31,

MD-05 (Hoyer) – D+11,

MD-08 (Van Hollen Jr) – D+21,

MA-01 (Olger) – D+14,

MA-02 (Neal) – D+9,

MA-04 (Frank) – D+14,

MA-05 (Tsongas) – D+8,

MA-06 (Tierney) – D+7,

MA-10 (Delahunt) – D+5,

MI-05 (Kildee) – D+11,

MI-07 (Schauer) – R+2,

MI-09 (Peters) – D+2,

MI-12 (Levin) – D+12,

MN-01 (Walz) – R+1,

MN-04 (McCollum) – D+13,

MN-08 (Oberstar) – D+3,

MS-01 (Childers) – R+14,

MS-04 (Taylor) – R+20,

MO-03 (Carnahan) – D+7,

MO-04 (Skelton) – R+14,

MO-05 (Cleaver) – D+10,

NV-01 (Berkley) – D+10,

NV-03 (Titus) – D+2,

NH-01 (Shea Porter) – D+0,

NH-02 (Hodes OPEN) – D+3,

NJ-03 (Adler) – R+1,

NJ-12 (Holt) – D+5,

NM-01 (Heinrich) – D+5,

NM-02 (Teague) – R+6,

NM-03 (Lujan) – D+7,

NY-01 (Bishop) – D+0,

NY-02 (Israel) – D+4,

NY-04 (McCarthy) – D+6,

NY-13 (McMahon) – R+4,

NY-19 (Hall) – R+3,

NY-22 (Hinchey) – D+6,

NY-23 (Owens) – R+1,

NY-25 (Maffei) – D+3,

NY-29 (Massa) – R+5,

NC-01 (Butterfield) – D+9,

NC-04 (Price) – D+8,

NC-07 (McIntyre) – R+5,

NC-08 (Kissell) – R+2,

NC-11 (Shuler) – R+6,

NC-12 (Watt) – D+16,

NC-13 (Miller) – D+5,

ND-AL (Pomeroy) – R+10,

OH-01 (Driehaus) – D+1,

OH-06 (Wilson) – R+2,

OH-10 (Kucinich) – D+8,

OH-13 (Sutton) – D+5,

OH-15 (Kilroy) – D+1,

OH-16 (Boccieri) – R+4,

OH-18 (Space) – R+7,

OK-02 (Boren) – R+14,

OR-01 (Wu) – D+8,

OR-04 (DeFazio) – D+2,

OR-05 (Schrader) – D+1,

PA-03 (Dahlkemper) – R+3,

PA-04 (Altmire) – R+6,

PA-07 (Sestak) – D+3,

PA-08 (Murphy) – D+2,

PA-10 (Carney) – R+8,

PA-11 (Kanjorski) – D+4,

PA-12 (Murtha) – R+1,

PA-13 (Schwartz) – D+7,

PA-14 (Doyle) – D+19,

PA-17 (Holden) – R+6,

RI-01 (Kennedy) – D+13,

RI-02 (Langevin) – D+9,

SC-05 (Spratt) – R+7,

SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin) – R+9,

TN-04 (Davis) – R+13,

TN-05 (Cooper) – D+3,

TN-06 (Gordon) – R+13,

TN-08 (Tanner) – R+6,

TX-09 (Green) – D+22,

TX-15 (Hinojosa) – D+3,

TX-16 (Reyes) – D+10,

TX-17 (Edwards) – R+20,

TX-18 (Jackson Lee) – D+24,

TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,

TX-23 (Rodriguez) – R+4,

TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,

TX-27 (Ortiz) – R+2,

TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,

TX-29 (Green) – D+8,

TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,

UT-02 (Matheson) – R+15,

VA-02 (Nye) – R+5,

VA-05 (Perriello) – R+5,

VA-08 (Moran) – D+16,

VA-09 (Boucher) – R+11,

VA-11 (Connolly) – D+2,

WA-03 (Baird) – D+0,

WA-06 (Dicks) – D+5,

WA-09 (Smith) – D+5,

WV-01 (Mollohan) – R+9,

WV-03 (Rahall) – R+6,

WI-02 (Baldwin) – D+15,

WI-03 (Kind) – D+4,

WI-04 (Moore) – D+22,

WI-07 (Obey) – D+3,

WI-08 (Kagen) – R+2,

7 Democratic held Districts have GOP candidates that are considering a run:

CA-10 (Garamendi) – D+11,

ME-01 (Pingree) – D+8,

NY-14 (Maloney) – D+26,

NY-20 (Murphy) – R+2,

NY-24 (Arcuri) – R+2,

OH-17 (Ryan) – D+12,

WA-07 (McDermott) – D+31,

1 Democratic held District has a rumoured GOP Party candidates:

NJ-08 (Pascrell) – D+10,

72 Democratic held Districts don’t have any GOP candidates:

AL-07 (Davis OPEN) – D+18,

CA-05 (Matsui) – D+15,

CA-07 (Miller) – D+19,

CA-09 (Lee) – D+37,

CA-12 (Speier) – D+23,

CA-14 (Eshoo) – D+21,

CA-15 (Honda) – D+15,

CA-16 (Lofgren) – D+16,

CA-17 (Farr) – D+19,

CA-18 (Cardoza) – D+4,

CA-23 (Capps) – D+12,

CA-29 (Schiff) – D+14,

CA-31 (Becerra) – D+29,

CA-32 (Chu) – D+15,

CA-34 (Roybal-Allard) – D+22,

CA-35 (Waters) – D+31,

CA-37 (Richardson) – D+26,

CA-38 (Napolitano) – D+18,

CA-39 (Sanchez) – D+12,

CA-43 (Baca) – D+13,

CO-02 (Polis) – D+11,

CT-01 (Larson) – D+13,

GA-05 (Lewis) – D+26,

HI-02 (Hirono) – D+14,

IN-01 (Visclosky) – D+8,

MD-02 (Ruppersberger) – D+7,

MD-07 (Cummings) – D+25,

MA-03 (McGovern) – D+9,

MA-07 (Markey) – D+15,

MA-08 (Capuano) – D+32,

MA-09 (Lynch) – D+11,

MI-01 (Stupak) – R+3,

MI-13 (Kilpatrick) – D+31,

MI-14 (Conyers) – D+34,

MI-15 (Dingell) – D+13,

MN-05 (Ellison) – D+23,

MN-07 (Peterson) – R+5,

MS-02 (Thompson) – D+12,

MO-01 (Clay) – D+27,

NJ-01 (Andrews) – D+12,

NJ-06 (Pallone) – D+8,

NJ-09 (Rothman) – D+9,

NJ-10 (Payne) – D+33,

NJ-13 (Sires) – D+21,

NY-05 (Ackerman) – D+12,

NY-06 (Meeks) – D+36,

NY-07 (Crowley) – D+26,

NY-08 (Nadler) – D+22,

NY-09 (Weiner) – D+5,

NY-10 (Towns) – D+38,

NY-11 (Clarke) – D+38,

NY-12 (Velazquez) – D+33,

NY-15 (Rangel) – D+41,

NY-16 (Serrano) – D+41,

NY-17 (Engel) – D+18,

NY-18 (Lowey) – D+9,

NY-21 (Tonko) – D+6,

NY-27 (Higgins) – D+4,

NY-28 (Slaughter) – D+15,

NC-02 (Etheridge) – R+2,

OH-09 (Kaptor) – D+10,

OH-11 (Fudge) – D+32,

OR-03 (Blumenauer) – D+19,

PA-01 (Brady) – D+35,

PA-02 (Fattah) – D+38,

SC-06 (Clyburn) – D+12,

TN-09 (Cohen) – D+23,

VT-AL (Welch) – D+13,

VA-03 (Scott) – D+20,

WA-01 (Inslee) – D+9,

WA-02 (Larsen) – D+3,

Candidate Filing closed – No Candidate – 2 Districts

IL-01 (Rush) – D+34,

IL-04 (Gutierrez) – D+32,

So the Republicans have confirmed candidates in 353 districts (with 2 Democrats being given free passes in 2010). Take a look at some of their challengers websites though and your eyeballs will bleed. They also have 7 districts with candidates that are considering a run and 1 district with rumoured candidates.

They also have some huge gaps in California and New York.

They already have a full House slate in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming (we have 23 such states).

They also have but one slot to fill in Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana,  Maine,  Mississippi, Missouri, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia (we have 8 such states).

And of course there is Illinois where 2 districts won’t have Republican candidates on the ballot in 2010.

Expect candidates to bob up with increasing frequency from here on in.

Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.

More updates soon.

Many more House Districts now have Democratic candidates.

In less than 15 months the midterms will be upon us.

In 2006 we fielded candidates in 425 districts and in 2008 candidates in 421.

How will we go in 2010?

Since my last update many more intrepid Democrats stepped up to run in Republican held Districts.

AK-AL (Young) – R+13,

AZ-03 (Shadegg) – R+9,

AZ-06 (Flake) – R+15,

FL-15 (Posey) – R+6,

FL-21 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,

FL-25 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,

GA-10 (Broun) – R+15,

IL-06 (Roskam) – R+0,

IL-16 (Manzullo) – R+2,

IL-19 (Shimkus) – R+9,

IN-03 (Souder) – R+14,

IN-05 (Burton) – R+17,

IA-04 (Latham) – R+0,

IA-05 (King) – R+9,

KS-01 (Moran OPEN) – R+23,

KS-02 (Jenkins) – R+9,

MI-02 (Hoekstra OPEN) – R+7,

MN-02 (Kline) – R+4,

MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+0,

MS-03 (Harper) – R+15,

MO-08 (Emerson) – R+17,

NE-01 (Fortenberry) – R+11,

NE-02 (Terry) – R+6,

NC-09 (Myrick) – R+11,

NC-10 (McHenry) – R+17,

OH-14 (LaTourette) – R+3,

PA-18 (Murphy) – R+6,

PA-19 (Platts) – R+12,

TX-06 (Barton) – R+15,

TX-12 (Granger) – R+16,

TX-19 (Neugebaeur) – R+26,

TX-22 (Olsen) – R+13,

VA-10 (Wolf) – R+2,

WA-04 (Hastings) – R+13,

WV-02 (Capito) – R+8,

WI-05 (Sensenbrenner) – R+12,

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

Also keep an eye out for the great series on Democratic House Candidates by Adam T

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

Well for starters I think we can safely assume that we will field candidates in all 258 of the Districts that we currently hold including the newest addition to our held list NY-23!!!

So onto the Republican held districts:

90 GOP held Districts have confirmed Democratic Party candidates. This includes 83 in states where candidate filing is still open:

AL-03 (Rogers) – R+9,

AK-AL (Young) – R+13,

AZ-03 (Shadegg) – R+9,

AZ-06 (Flake) – R+15,

AR-03 (Boozman) – R+16,

CA-03 (Lundgren) – R+6,

CA-19 (Radanovich) – R+9,

CA-24 (Gallegly) – R+4,

CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,

CA-26 (Dreier) – R+3,

CA-41 (Lewis) – R+10,

CA-42 (Miller) – R+10,

CA-44 (Calvert) – R+6,

CA-45 (Bono Mack) – R+3,

CA-48 (Campbell) – R+6,

CA-50 (Bilbray) – R+3,

C0-06 (Coffman) – R+8,

DE-AL (Castle) – D+7,

FL-01 (Miller) – R+21,

FL-05 (Brown-Waite) – R+9,

FL-06 (Stearns) – R+10,

FL-07 (Mica) – R+7,

FL-10 (Young) – R+1,

FL-12 (Putnam OPEN) – R+6,

FL-13 (Buchanan) – R+6,

FL-14 (Mack) – R+11,

FL-15 (Posey) – R+6,

FL-16 (Rooney) – R+5,

FL-21 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,

FL-25 (Diaz-Balart) – R+5,

GA-10 (Broun) – R+15,

IN-03 (Souder) – R+14,

IN-05 (Burton) – R+17,

IA-04 (Latham) – R+0,

IA-05 (King) – R+9,

KS-01 (Moran OPEN) – R+23,

KS-02 (Jenkins) – R+9,

KS-04 (Tiahrt) – R+14,

KY-04 (Davis) – R+14,

KY-05 (Rogers) – R+15,

LA-02 (Cao) – D+25,

MD-06 (Bartlett) – R+13,

MI-02 (Hoekstra OPEN) – R+7,

MI-11 (McCotter) – R+0,

MN-02 (Kline) – R+4,

MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+0,

MN-06 (Bachmann) – R+7,

MS-03 (Harper) – R+15,

MO-08 (Emerson) – R+17,

MT-AL (Rehberg) – R+7,

NE-01 (Fortenberry) – R+11,

NE-02 (Terry) – R+6,

NE-03 (Smith) – R+24,

NV-02 (Heller) – R+5,

NC-09 (Myrick) – R+11,

NC-10 (McHenry) – R+17,

OH-02 (Schmidt) – R+13,

OH-12 (Tiberi) – D+1,

OH-14 (LaTourette) – R+3,

PA-06 (Gerlach) – D+4,

PA-15 (Dent) – D+2,

PA-16 (Pitts) – R+8,

PA-18 (Murphy) – R+6,

PA-19 (Platts) – R+12,

SC-01 (Brown) – R+10,

SC-02 (Wilson) – R+9,

SC-03 (Barrett OPEN) – R+17,

TN-03 (Wamp OPEN) – R+13,

TN-07 (Blackburn) – R+18,

TX-06 (Barton) – R+15,

TX-12 (Granger) – R+16,

TX-19 (Neugebaeur) – R+26,

TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,

TX-22 (Olsen) – R+13,

TX-26 (Burgess) – R+13,

TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,

VA-01 (Wittman) – R+7,

VA-10 (Wolf) – R+2,

WA-04 (Hastings) – R+13,

WA-08 (Reichert) – D+3,

WV-02 (Capito) – R+8,

WI-01 (Ryan) – R+2,

WI-05 (Sensenbrenner) – R+12,

And there are also 7 GOP held Districts with candidates in states where filing has closed:

IL-06 (Roskam) – R+0,

IL-10 (Kirk) – D+6,

IL-13 (Biggert) – R+1,

IL-15 (Johnson) – R+6,

IL-16 (Manzullo) – R+2,

IL-18 (Schock) – R+6,

IL-19 (Shimkus) – R+9,

3 GOP held Districts have Democratic Party candidates that are considering a run:

NY-03 (King) – R+4,

TX-10 (McCaul) – R+10,

WI-06 (Petri) – R+4,

2 GOP held Districts have rumoured Democratic Party candidates:

FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) – R+3,

OK-01 (Sullivan) – R+16,

82 GOP held Districts don’t have any Democratic Party candidates:

AL-01 (Bonner) – R+14,

AL-04 (Aderholt) – R+26,

AL-06 (Bachus) – R+29,

AZ-02 (Franks) – R+13,

CA-02 (Herger) – R+11,

CA-04 (McClintock) – R+10,

CA-21 (Nunes) – R+13,

CA-22 (McCarthy) – R+16,

CA-40 (Royce) – R+8,

CA-46 (Rohrabacher) – R+6,

CA-49 (Issa) – R+10,

CA-52 (Hunter) – R+9,

C0-05 (Lamborn) – R+14,

FL-04 (Crenshaw) – R+17,

FL-09 (Bilirakis) – R+6,

GA-01 (Kingston) – R+16,

GA-03 (Westmoreland) – R+19,

GA-06 (Price) – R+19,

GA-07 (Linder) – R+16,

GA-09 (Deal OPEN) – R+28,

GA-11 (Gingrey) – R+20,

ID-02 (Simpson) – R+17,

IN-04 (Buyer) – R+14,

IN-06 (Pence) – R+10,

KY-01 (Whitfield) – R+15,

KY-02 (Guthrie) – R+15,

LA-01 (Scalise) – R+24,

LA-04 (Fleming) – R+11,

LA-05 (Alexander) – R+14,

LA-06 (Cassidy) – R+10,

LA-07 (Boustany) – R+14,

MI-03 (Ehlers) – R+6,

MI-04 (Camp) – R+3,

MI-06 (Upton) – R+0,

MI-08 (Rogers) – R+2,

MI-10 (Miller) – R+5,

MO-02 (Akin) – R+9,

MO-06 (Graves) – R+7,

MO-07 (Blunt OPEN) – R+15,

MO-09 (Luetkemeyer) – R+9,

NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – D+1,

NJ-04 (Smith) – R+6,

NJ-05 (Garrett) – R+7,

NJ-07 (Lance) – R+3,

NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen) – R+7,

NY-26 (Lee) – R+6,

NC-03 (Jones) – R+16,

NC-05 (Foxx) – R+15,

NC-06 (Coble) – R+18,

OH-03 (Turner) – R+5,

OH-04 (Jordan) – R+15,

OH-05 (Latta) – R+9,

OH-07 (Austria) – R+7,

OH-08 (Boehner) – R+11,

OK-03 (Lucas) – R+24,

OK-04 (Cole) – R+18,

OK-05 (Fallin OPEN) – R+13,

OR-02 (Walden) – R+10,

PA-05 (Thompson) – R+9,

PA-09 (Shuster) – R+17,

SC-04 (Inglis) – R+15,

TN-01 (Roe) – R+21,

TN-02 (Duncan) – R+16,

TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,

TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,

TX-03 (Johnson) – R+14,

TX-04 (Hall) – R+21,

TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,

TX-07 (Culberson) – R+13,

TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,

TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,

TX-13 (Thornberry) – R+29,

TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,

TX-24 (Marchant) – R+11,

TX-31 (Carter) – R+14,

UT-01 (Bishop) – R+21,

UT-03 (Chaffetz) – R+26,

VA-04 (Forbes) – R+4,

VA-06 (Goodlatte) – R+12,

VA-07 (Cantor) – R+9,

WA-05 (McMorris Rodgers) – R+7,

WY-AL (Lummis) – R+20,

So we now have candidate in 348 House Districts, 3 Districts with candidates considering their options and 2 with rumoured candidates.

In this stage in 2007 we had candidates in about 359 Districts but we do now hold 21 more districts. All things considered not a bad position to be in.

Whilst at this stage there is no real cause for concern vis a vis candidate recruitment, so much more remains to be done.

On the upside we already have a full slate in 23 states – Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont & West Virginia.

We also have only 1 district to fill in 8 states – Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, South Carolina, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.  

On the other hand however Texas is a problem for us as it has been for the last two cycles with 13 Districts still to fill, and 5 weeks to close of filings (January 4th). So too do we have far too many vancancies in California we do already have candidates in a number of Republican districts here.

And to finish well done to the Illinois Democratic Party who managed to muster a full complement of candidates before filing closed earlier ths month.

Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.

Democratic Debauchery in Colorado (Redistricting)

After a careful look at the state after coming up with a redistricting plan the first time around, I decided to be more aggressive, bringing the delegation to a possible 6-1 breakdown.  In another scenario I tried to create a majority Hispanic district, but while doable it makes a 6-1 breakdown impossible and would depose one of our current Democratic Reps.

I’m going off the assumption that Democrats retain both houses of the legislature and the Governor’s mansion, a tough fight but I think that’s how it’ll end up.  

This time the goals were to: A) Make Markey safe, B) shore up Salazar at least a little, C) Keep Perlmutter, Polis and DeGette in reasonably solid Districts, and D) transform one of the other 2 districts into a swing district.

Here’s a map of the result:

2010 Colorado Congressional Districts

And a look at the metro area…

Photobucket

1st CD: Diana DeGette v. Mike Coffman

Population: 706,016

58% White, 13% Black, 20% Hispanic

This district still retains a substantial Denver county presence, keeping DeGette’s home in east Denver, the Denver portion runs roughly from Elyria Swansea in the north, keeping Capitol Hill, Wash Park and all the neighborhoods north of I-25 up to Virginia Village, then everything east and south of that neighborhood is in the 7th.  Denver now makes up 38% of the district.

The 1st now includes all of Aurora, including the far-flung areas and Foxfield before going south into Douglas County, picking up most of Lone Tree and a good chunk of Parker.  It also manages to pick up Mike Coffman’s home, removing him from any Republican district.

Despite extending into Douglas county, only about 26% of the 1st is Republican leaning, with another 18% of the district in southern Aurora that could be considered swingy.  with a majority still solidly Democratic and such a large minority population DeGette should have no problem holding the seat.

Having the 1st go south all the way into Douglas allows the 6th to also move south, picking up the blood-red areas in northern El Paso County.

2nd CD: Jared Polis

Population: 705,761

77% White, 16% Hispanic

As much as I wanted to draw Polis out of this district, I didn’t want to put any of Boulder County in any other district, so Polis can stay to grandstand another day.  

This district remains anchored in Boulder County, extending into Broomfield, Thornton, Northglenn, Federal Heights and Westminster in Adams County, and Grand County as it did before.  From there, however it becomes radically different.  

The 2nd extends into Jackson County, northern Routt County (excluding Steamboat), Moffat, Rio Blanco, Garfield (west of Rifle), and several precincts in Mesa County, including Fruita and parts of Grand Junction.  It also goes south into Jefferson, picking up the foothills area of Evergreen and Conifer.

This move was meant to draw as many Republican votes out of the 3rd as possible without turning the 2nd into a swing district.  It does have the nice effect of diluting the People’s Republic of Boulder more than it has been in the past, however, a side-effect I’m happy to see.

Once again, despite the move into more Republican territory, only 13% of the district leans Republican now, with another 41% even considered less than solidly Democratic.  (I included Broomfield, Northglenn, Westminister, Thornton and Federal Heights in that number, definitely pessimistic to call it swingy).

3rd CD: John Salazar

Population: 705,635

70% White, 24% Hispanic

Making Salazar too much safer would be pointless, he has a proven ability to hold this district by wide margins, despite Obama only getting 47% here in the old district.  There is room for improvement, however, just to be safe and keep the “Penry scenario” out of relevance.  

The biggest changes were to add  Eagle, most of Summit, Lake, Crowley, the rest of Otero, and Bent.  The latter counties are all small enough and friendly enough to Democrats to not make much difference, the ski counties, however, help a great deal in making this district less Republican, along with the territory taken by the 2nd.

The only other change was the loss of a handful of precincts in Pueblo County.  So overall still more of a swing district, with 37.5% of the district leaning Republican and another 7% more swingy, the rest at least leans Democratic.  Obama would have definitely won this district, but not overwhelmingly.

4th CD: Betsy Markey

Population: 705,422

68% White, 26% Hispanic

In terms of voting percentage, the 4th is pretty drastically changed.  Going from a narrow Obama loss to a solid Obama win.  By losing all the rural plains counties as well as eastern Weld county, there is only the increasingly blue Larimer county and the bluing southwest Weld county, including Greeley.  What is added here is all of Adams county except for Northglenn, Westminster, Federal Heights, and Thornton, making this district much more Hispanic as well.  So even if Cory Gardner were to win in 2010, he would be drawn out of the district and put into the 6th.  The result is a district where Obama received more than 54% of the vote.  

5th CD:

Population: 705,420

70% White, 24% Hispanic

This is the district I call “The Crab”, its the most severe gerrymander I could come up with given my limited data.  (Any other suggestions as to what this district looks like would be great!)  It goes from an El Paso County based district to going from most of Colorado Springs south into Fremont, through Park and Chaffee, back into Jefferson and Arapahoe, drawing out Lamborn.  The idea came from someone else on here, who wanted a springs-based district which Obama had won, but there’s not enough people in that area to make an entire district, so I had to get creative.

Put more specifically, this district takes in all the precincts Obama won in Colorado Springs and Fountain, as well as a few others that needed to be added to make the district contiguous, as well as Manitou Springs and Fort Carson, which Obama won.  Fremont and Park were both pretty solid for McCain, but their populations are negligible and there needed to be a link from this to the increasingly blue southern Denver suburbs to the north without going through Douglas.  To the south, the 5th takes in a few precincts in Pueblo County.

North of Park it includes Gilpin and Clear Creek and part of Summit, all of which went for Obama.  Once in Jefferson, the 5th avoids the wealthy Ken Caryl, and extends into Littleton in Jeffco for lack of a better name, once again leaving out the worst performing precincts, but still much of that area voted for McCain.  It then extends into southern Lakewood, going as far north as Mississippi Ave. and also part of Morrison.  Once in Arapahoe County the district includes Littleton, Sheridan, Englewood, Columbine Valley, Greenwood Village Cherry Hills Village and Centennial, leaving out Bowmar.  All of these except for Cherry Hills, with a population of just over 6,000 voted for Obama.  

So overall the 5th becomes extremely swingy, with 23% of the district leaning Republican and 41% of the district being made up of areas that are traditional swing areas.  There are definitely more Democratic voters now in the 5th than there have ever been, the 5th has never before been represented by a Democrat, but it should now be competitive enough to make that possible.  

6th CD: Doug Lamborn

Total Population: 705,583

81% White, 11% Hispanic

The 6th becomes a Democrats worst nightmare, taking in virtually all the most Republican areas.  The district takes in the rest of Douglas County and the rest of El Paso County, where Obama only one 2 precincts.  From there it extends into the heavily Republican Teller County, eastern Weld and Arapahoe Counties, and all the eastern plains counties not in the 3rd.  

With no Democratic areas to speak of and only 1% even remotely  swingy, this district isn’t even worth having a Democrat run in.  If Coffman were smart he would move into this district and fast!

7th CD: Ed Perlmutter

Total Population: 705,613

64% White, 28% Hispanic

The 7th retains its base in Jefferson County, keeping Perlmutter’s home.  It then also takes in all of west Denver includig the Civic Center, Lincoln Park, and most of Baker and east Denver south of I-25 and the Virginia Village neighborhood.    Its only Republican additions are part of south-east Jefferson near Sheridan & Bowles and Ken Caryl.  

Overall this district become more Democratic than before with only 5% of the district leaning Republican and 22% of the district being swingy.  (Golden, Arvada, and Westminster were considered swingy in this analysis.)  Obama would have won this district solidly.

AZ-Gov: Arpaio with big GOP primary lead

This is according to Rasmussen so it could be another push poll.  Gov Brewer is a distant third.  They also give Arpaio with a big lead over Goddard, ehich sounds VERY suspect.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

If Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio decides to seek the Republican nomination for governor of Arizona, he will enter the race as the clear favorite. Incumbent Governor Jan Brewer places third in an early look at the 2010 GOP gubernatorial race.

Election 2010: Arizona Governor GOP Primary

Brewer

10%

Arpaio

47%

Martin

22%

Munger

6%

Parker

6%

Some other candidate

3%

Not sure

7%

2010 Arizona Governor Race

Jan Brewer (R)

35%

Terry Goddard (D)

44%

Some Other Candidate

9%

Not Sure

12%

2010 Arizona Governor Race

Joe Arpaio (R)

51%

Terry Goddard (D)

39%

Some Other Candidate

7%

Not Sure

4%

2010 Arizona Governor Race

Dean Martin (R)

38%

Terry Goddard (D)

40%

Some Other Candidate

11%

Not Sure

11%

 

KS-Gov: Businessman Tom Wiggans will challenge Brownback

Kansas Democrats are on their way to presenting the strongest slate of candidates in years with respected businessman Tom Wiggans‘ announcement that he will run for Governor. Wiggans, a native Kansan, will run against career politician, and well known right-wing Republican, Sam Brownback.

From his bio:

Tom Wiggans is committed to applying his vast business experience to Kansas state government as our next Governor. By utilizing his common sense business practices to bring people together and solve problems, Tom will work with both Democrats and Republicans to pull our state out of the economic recession, ensure we have a stable state budget, and create 21st century jobs for our future.

His campaign has also put together a bio video which you can see here.

More about Tom Wiggans and his campaign below the fold.

Tom is exactly what Kansas voters need right now. A successful businessman who isn’t going to let rigid ideology guide his decisions. Our state has been hit hard by these challenging economic times. Tom has the vision and experience to weather the economic storm, create 21st century jobs and improve our schools. If you’d like to learn more, or get involved you can check out his website here.

From his bio, here are some other interesting facts about Tom Wiggans:

  • Born and raised in Fredonia in Wilson County, Kansas
  • Tom lives in Olathe, KS with his wife Kathryn and two teenage daughters
  • Tom is the Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Peplin, a bioscience company developing a product for skin cancer and other serious skin diseases
  • Served as a Page to Representative Clyde Hill
  • Graduated from the University of Kansas with a Bachelor’s Degree in Pharmacy
  • Member of the board of Trustees of the University of Kansas Endowment Association
  • As usual, I will continue to update you on the political scene in Kansas and how you can get involved with the party and campaigns. If you’re interested in helping today, here’s some easy things to do:

    Tom’s website launched today and you can get involved by clicking here.

    Click here to introduce Tom on Twitter:

    Big news: Businessman Tom Wiggans has announced his campaign for Governor. Get involved: bit.ly/3MoU1X (Please RT!)

    Click here to introduce Tom on Facebook:

    Tell your Facebook friends to get involved with Tom’s campaign for Governor!

    Thanks for your continued support.

    Full disclosure: I work for the Kansas Democratic Party.

    2010 Midterms – Filing closes in Illinois & some NY ruminations

    Filing closed on Monday in Illinois; the first state to do so in this cycle.

    How many of Illinois’s 19 Districts did we file candidates for?

    Below the fold for all the juicy details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

    But before you do rejoice in the following sentence: “Congratulations Congressman Owens!” How fantastic does it feel to say that?

    As most of us know Illinois has 19 Congressional Districts – 12 Dem and 7 Repub.

    At the close of candidate filing we had candidates in all 19 Districts – woo hoo. Whilst this can reasonably be expected in a Blue State it is a good start nonetheless.

    As for Team GOP – well they didn’t do so well. They dredged up candidates in only 17/19 Districts. Consequently Congressmen Rush and Gutierrez have only Green Party opponents to overcome in the 1st and 4th. Rush has to fend off three primary challengers first though.

    Some thoughts about various challengers; ours and theirs.

    Democrats:

    11 incumbents 8 challenged districts:

    6th – Ben Lowe has bobbed up at the last minute and seems destined to be 3rd tier frustratingly enough.

    10th – BARNBURNER – Will it be Seals or Hamos? With the Repubs fielding their best possible candidate in Coulson (assuming she makes through the primary) either Seals or Hamos will have their work cut out for them. One of the top Democratic targets in the country. My money is on Seals (I volunteered for him in 2008) to bring this Kerry/Obama Repub district back home in 2010

    13th – Scott Harper held Biggert to 53% in 2008 and if there is even a mild pro democratic environment he may well make this race super competitive. Has to seriously step up his fundraising as he had only 54k COH as at the end of September. Top tier candidate in a 2nd tier race. 2nd top Democratic target in Illinois

    15th – David Gill who ran in 2004 & 2006 is back again. In the Democratic tsunami of 2006 he managed all of 42% and there is no reason to assume he will do any better this time with only 12K COH as at the end of September. 3rd tier candidate alas.

    16th – It’s always good to have a local mayor step up to the plate. In this case it is Freeport Mayor George Gaulrapp. He has only been in the race for a few weeks so we will have to wait and see. 2nd tier candidate.

    18th – Is Gulf War veteran Carl Ray the man to deliver the Schock required to win this district? Not with $241 COH he aint (But to be fair he hasn’t been in the race long). 3rd tier candidate.

    19th – Is clean government campaigner Tim Bagwell the man to take on and beat Shimkus. No he isn’t as his last minute filing would seem to indicate. 3rd tier candidate.

    Now for the Repubs:

    7 Incumbents, 10 challenged districts.

    1st, 4th – NO CANDIDATE – heh

    2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, 12th, 17th – 3rd tier no-names.

    8th – All 6 of the Repubs here seem to be no better than 3rd tier. Looks like Bean will cruise here. Of the 6 Repubs only Rodriguez seems to be of any quality.

    11th – Kinzinger seems to be top tier. With 151k COH and being an Iraq war veteran he may be a threat to frosh Halvorson – but i doubt it. Race to watch.

    14th – With 5 Repubs running expect a bloody Primary. If as expected establishment choice Ethan Hastert emerges then he will give Foster a real challenge. With 313k COH Hastert has to be considered top tier.

    From here it is off to Texas where filing closes on January 4th. We are not travelling well here at all vis a vis candidate recruitment but you will have to wait for my next diary, due in the next week to read about that.

    In regards to New York what a stunning result in the 23rd. Who would have thunk that there would be only 2 Republican in the 29 New York Congressional House Delegation. WOW

    Surely now the party has to step up and recruit top tier challengers to the last two hold outs – Pete King in the 3rd and Chris Lee in the 26th. This is all the more important given that the Democratic held 29th is more Republican than both of them!  

    2010 Sortable Congressional Filing Deadline & Primary Calendar

    Click Column Headers to Sort




















































































































































































































































































































    State Filing Deadline Primary Run-Off
    Alabama 4/2/10 6/1/10 7/13/10
    Alaska 6/1/10 8/24/10
    Arizona 5/26/10 8/24/10
    Arkansas 3/8/10 5/18/10 6/8/10
    California 3/12/10 6/8/10
    Colorado 5/27/10 8/10/10
    Connecticut 5/25/10 8/10/10
    Delaware 7/30/10 9/14/10
    Florida 4/30/10 8/24/10
    Georgia 4/30/10 7/20/10 8/10/10
    Hawaii 7/20/10 9/18/10
    Idaho 3/19/10 5/25/10
    Illinois 11/2/09 2/2/10
    Indiana 2/16/10 5/4/10
    Iowa 3/19/10 6/8/10
    Kansas 6/10/10 8/3/10
    Kentucky 1/26/10 5/18/10
    Louisiana 7/9/10 8/28/10 10/2/10
    Maine 3/15/10 6/8/10
    Maryland 7/6/10 9/14/10
    Massachusetts 6/1/10 9/14/10
    Michigan 5/11/10 8/3/10
    Minnesota 6/1/10 8/10/10
    Mississippi 3/1/10 6/1/10 6/22/10
    Missouri 3/30/10 8/3/10
    Montana 3/15/10 6/8/10
    Nebraska 3/1/10 5/11/10
    Nevada 3/12/10 6/8/10
    New Hampshire 6/11/10 9/14/10
    New Jersey 4/12/10 6/8/10
    New Mexico 2/9/10 6/1/10
    New York 7/15/10 9/14/10
    North Carolina 2/26/10 5/4/10 6/22/10
    North Dakota 4/9/10 6/8/10
    Ohio 2/18/10 5/4/10
    Oklahoma 6/9/10 7/27/10 8/24/10
    Oregon 3/9/10 5/18/10
    Pennsylvania 3/9/10 5/18/10
    Rhode Island 6/30/10 9/14/10
    South Carolina 3/30/10 6/8/10 6/22/10
    South Dakota 3/30/10 6/8/10 6/29/10
    Tennessee 4/1/10 8/5/10
    Texas 1/4/10 3/2/10 4/13/10
    Utah 3/19/10 6/22/10
    Vermont 6/17/10 8/24/10
    Virginia 4/9/10 6/8/10
    Washington 6/11/10 8/17/10
    West Virginia 1/30/10 5/11/10
    Wisconsin 7/13/10 9/14/10
    Wyoming 5/28/10 8/17/10

    Source: FEC (PDF)

    Kansas Redistricting – most likely scenario

    In Kansas, redistricting is controlled by the state legislature, with the Governor having veto power. By far the most likely political scenario is that in 2010,  Republicans will have a huge advantage in the state Senate (currently 31-9) and a big one in the state House (currently 76-49) and likely a new Governor in conservative Republican Sam Brownback (ugh) unless Democrats find a miracle candidate to take him on.

    But one-party control has its downsides: namely, a long-running split between the party’s hardcore conservatives and its moderates, who regularly side with Democrats to either make mischief or enact good policy, depending on your point of view. It plays out in the legislature regularly, and in the congressional seats occasionally.

    The most recent example is the 2nd District’s Nancy Boyda, a Democrat who knocked out the very conservative Jim Ryun in 2006, 51-47. “Moderate” Lynn Jenkins edged out Ryun in the 2008 Republican primaries and was able to bring enough Republicans back into the fold to defeat Boyda 51-46.

    Here’s the thing: If (conservative) Brownback is elected Governor in 2010, the last thing he’ll want to do in 2011-2012 is a pick a fight with legislators over redistricting.  

    A Gov. Brownback (ugh) will have his hands full pushing through a conservative agenda over the feisty moderates (whose main base, suburban Johnson County, is going to get quite a few more seats regardless). Moderate Republicans and Democrats share a lot of redistricting aims–they want competitive seats, basically. Make seats too heavily Republican and conservatives will take over, too heavily Democratic…well, that’s not really a possibility in Kansas.

    Overall, Kansans do tend to be fairly civic-minded about redistricting and don’t do obvious gerrymanders, using fairly balanced “select committees” of legislators to do the grunt work. Finally, legislators also put maintaining the core of existing districts into the redistricting guidelines for last time, so I’d bet that’s likely to show up again.

    The Big First – District One – map color: blue [irony alert!] – The person in this seat basically has a space waiting for them on the Agriculture Committee. And it will be the person who wins the Republican primary for this open seat in 2010. This district is about as red and rural as it gets–and like many rural areas, it’s bleeding population.  

    Adds: bits of Geary & Nemaha, all of Riley  

    Loses: Pratt, Barber, Waubaunsee, the rest of Greenwood

    Old PVI: R+23

    New PVI: R+22

    District Two – Lynn Jenkins (R) – map color: green – At PVI+9, it’s already the 2nd most Dem district (tells you something about KS right there), but there’s nowhere else to put the rest of liberal Lawrence now that the 3rd district has grown too populous for it. Based on Moore’s 2008 numbers here, that’s a net of about 13,000 votes in the D column flooding the district (with 27000 votes total and a 71-24 split). Jenkins beat Boyda by 13,500 votes in 2008. D’oh.

    The only help Republicans can offer is tinkering around the edges–taking out Topeka would be the only way to really affect the composition and that’s out of the question from several standpoints. It’s just unfortunate for the Great White Dope that her district completely surrounds the fastest-growing and bluest one in the state. That said, moderate Republicans should (at least in theory) love this district. They might still be able to edge out an incumbent Democrat (barely), but a conservative could be defeated in a general election.

    Adds: the rest of Douglas County (net 13000 D), Wabaunsee (net 1300 R), Montgomery (net 5000 R)

    Loses: Riley (net 1000 R), Coffey (net 1400 R), Woodson (net 500 R), Wilson (net 1300 R)

    Old PVI: R+9

    New PVI: R+5

    District Three – Dennis Moore (D) – map color: purple – Even if Republicans wanted to get rid of the delegation’s sole Democrat, it would be nearly impossible. To do it, you’d have to move out both Douglas & Wyandotte counties and then tack on a dozen or so rural ones. Not really a “community of interests” between the state’s richest, most populous suburban county and slew of relatively poor rural counties.

    So instead, the district drops the rest of Douglas and picks up a few sparsely-populated (for now) bits of Miami County. It’s enough to shift the PVI needle a few clicks to the right, but not enough to dislodge Moore, who won Johnson County 51-45 and Wyandotte 75-21. Still, a moderate Republican could definitely pick up this seat if the 63-year-old Moore retires. Then again, so could a Democrat.

    Old PVI: R+3

    New PVI: R+5

    District Four – map color: red – Centered on the slow-growing Wichita metro area, the Fightin’ Fourth has to add a few rural counties and becomes a bit redder. Even if state Rep. Raj Goyle can pull off an upset in 2010 in the open seat race here, he’ll be even harder-pressed to win here after redistricting.

    Adds: Coffey, Woodson, Wilson, Pratt, Barber

    Loses: Montgomery

    Old PVI: R+14

    New PVI: R+15

    Final score: Two seats that a moderate Republican or Democrat could possibly win, and two seats they almost certainly couldn’t.